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Author Topic: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend  (Read 20087 times)

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fp

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Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« on: September 06, 2011, 02:55:24 pm »
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Level 10- Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend

Hopefully, you have figured out that in this article I am going to talk about the Trash and how effective it really is. This is an important concept in Dominion, and to a newer player it can very counter intuitive. “Why would I want to get rid of my own precious cards?” It is a tricky question to answer. So let us see if we can answer that question.

The simplest explanation is that it gives you more effectiveness for each of the cards you buy. Suppose your deck is twice as slim as your opponent's. Then, that means that every card you buy is going to be used roughly twice as often, and hence all the improved cards you buy will be twice as effective.

In the last article, I pointed out the in order to buy a province or a colony, in essence, you need an average of $1.6 or $2.1 per card. Now, the obvious way to increase this average is to buy cards- most notably treasures that provide more $ than your average. However, conversely, one can increase this average by getting rid of (i.e., trashing) cards that provide less than your average. In fact it often gives you more of an advantage.

Let me give you a mathematical example. Suppose you have a set of 5 numbers which add up to 10. In order to increase the average, which would be better, to increase total by 1 to 11 or to decrease the quantity of numbers from 5 to 4?  Of course, it is simple arithmetic exercise to see that, in fact, it is better to decrease the denominator (11/5 = 2.1 versus 10/4 = 2.5). Moreover, in most any similar situation, it correct to decrease the denominator if the current average is significantly larger than 1. To translate into Dominion terms: trashing can be more effective buying!

Now, let us give a specific Dominion example.  It is the early game and suppose your deck currently contains 7 coppers, 3 estates and a Silver, and a Steward. You have A Steward, a Silver, an Estate and a 2 Coppers in hand. Consider two choices: Buy a Gold (using the +$2 function on the Steward) or trashing the Estate and a Copper and buying a Silver. For the first choice you are buying the all precious Gold; however, your average becomes: ($1*7 + $2*2 +$3*1) / 13 cards = $1.076 (here we count the Steward as a $2). Whereas for the second choice, you do not get the all precious Gold, but your average becomes: ($1*6 +$2*3)/ 11 cards = $1.091. The difference is small, but important. But further, imagine gaining an advantage of $0.015 each turn. That adds up! In the end it means you are going to be in province or colony territory (e.g. when your average breaks $1.6 or $2.1) a turn or two faster, that equates to buying one or two big point cards more than your opponent- which is often more than enough to win the game!

On the flip side of things. While it is helpful to decrease the number of cards in your deck, it is also equally helpful (or more appropriately hurtful) to clog your opponent's deck. Clearly, the best (that is, most hurtful) way to clog the opponent's deck is with curses. However, there are a few other attack cards that can “clog” you opponent's deck. Including Ambassador, Swindler, and Ghost Ship.

Before I continue, I should point out a very helpful and resourceful website: Councilroom.com
Thanks to Larry and rreneud, there are many many compiled statistics about various Dominion cards.
In particular, click here, http://councilroom.com/popular_buys, and click the “Win rate with column.” twice (this is will assort it in desending order). Loosely speaking, this will sort all Dominion cards in the average “score” each cards yields when it is bought or willfully gained. Let us look at the top 10 cards on the list (without the “always present” treasures or victory cards or prizes) in order:

Montebank
Witch
Familar
Grand Market
Hunting Party
Masquerade
Ambassador
Ghost Ship
Sea Hag
Venture


I should make one remark about this list (actually I'm just reiterating what the same remarks on Council Room): It does not take into account causation. In particular, one cannot conclude that buying these cards will cause you to win the game. One might buy a particular card because he or she is winning in order to preserve his or her lead; or conversely, one might buy a card not on this list because he is losing. For the most part, I feel vary confident that the cards above cause a player to win instead of the other way around, but you should be wary of this as you browse Council Room further.

One observation to make about the list is that a majority of them either trash (or return to the supply) or and/or adds cards to the opponent's deck (mostly the later). THAT'S how vital controlling the quantity of cards in your deck is.

Some key points:

1. Trashing is often underrated by new players.
2. If Chapel is on the board, BUY IT! While it is not as imperative, the same things go for Steward, Lookout,  Loan, Montebank, and Witch.

One additional remark I should make about the list from Council Room is that it considers the results of all players. Most particularly, if both players buy a card, then the average “win rate” for that game will be 1 regardless of who wins and who loses. Hence, the list above is a list of cards that are far better to have when playing against players who choose to pass on them. Specifically, the list is a list of underrated, yet effective cards. Chapel, Steward, Lookout and Loan do not make the list because most players buy them, and you should too!

3. In the early game, when in doubt, trash your cards.

Trashing cards is only effective when your deck is small. As the game continues and you grow your deck, trashing cards will become less worthwhile. If you are going to feed Oscar, do it early, or he will be grumpy.

4. Curses are much bigger of a deal than -1 VP

Newer players get view things in terms of points. After all, that is the point of the game. And in relative terms losing a point here and there is not that big of a deal. However, the key thing about the curse is not the loss of a victory point, but rather the fact that a curse clogs the opponent's deck. For a practical example, when you are Tortured, you are almost always better off discarding two cards than gaining a curse (unless you have a way to trash or otherwise use the Curse). For if you were to take the curse, you would would effectively be discarding (rather, forfeiting) one card every time you drew the curse. If you gain a curse in the early to middle game, you will still see it 4-5 times over the course of the game and that is 4-5 cards lost compared to the 2 cards you could have discarded up front.

Finally...

In this article, I have presented some good points and advice I would like to pose an alternative variant to players (at least of the players of the physical game):

“When a player 'gains a curse,' the card is placed in front of that player face-up along with his or her victory point chips (instead of wherever it might normally go), and are applied to that player's score at the end of the game as normal. In this variant, Curses cannot be trashed or discarded (say for Montebank)”.

The idea here is that Curses act like -1 victory point chips instead of clogging the deck.

Feel free to try this variant and post your feedback.
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philosophyguy

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2011, 05:17:42 pm »
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Using the average value analysis, does this mean that the correct decision if you draw the Steward with no Estates is to buy the Gold rather than trash?

Deck after turn 2: Steward, Silver, 7 Coppers, 3 Estates = average value 11/12 = .917
Deck after buying gold on turn 3: Gold, Steward, Silver, 7 Coppers, 3 Estates = average value 14/13 = 1.08
Deck after trashing 2 Coppers on turn 3: Steward, Silver, 5 Coppers, 3 Estates = average value = 9/10 = .90
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jonts26

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2011, 05:30:04 pm »
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Actually, if you trashed 2 coppers you would then buy a silver. So your deck value would be 11/11=1. Still less than 1.08, but closer.

So for purely big money, I'd say get the gold. What you actually do is dependent on strategy. If thinning is more important early, say in a draw engine with good 3 and 4's, then I'd trash.
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Epoch

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2011, 05:40:49 pm »
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Actually, if you trashed 2 coppers you would then buy a silver. So your deck value would be 11/11=1. Still less than 1.08, but closer.

He is presumably thinking of a situation in which you draw Steward + 4xCopper.  So if you play the Steward and trash 2 Copper, you have $2 less = can't buy Silver.

I'm always a little unclear on when to use a Steward as a Silver and when to use it to trash.  I'm not sure that this is well-explored space.
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chwhite

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2011, 06:01:13 pm »
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Nice article, I just have one quibble about this part:

Some key points:

1. Trashing is often underrated by new players.
2. If Chapel is on the board, BUY IT! While it is not as imperative, the same things go for Steward, Lookout,  Loan, Montebank, and Witch.

Steward, Lookout, and Loan are actually relatively mediocre trashers IMO.  After Chapel, I'd say that Remake and Masquerade are the other two elite trashers, and on average I'd also take Salvager, Moneylender, and Apprentice above those three as well.  Obviously it depends on the situation once you get past the Chapel/Remake/Masquerade troika; e.g. Minions make Loan awesome and Sea Hags are a good reason to trash with Lookout.  But in general I prefer the trash-for-benefit cards.

Ambassador is also worth a mention as a way to thin your deck, though it technically isn't "trashing" and the attack is just as important.
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DG

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2011, 06:12:46 pm »
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Quote
I'm always a little unclear on when to use a Steward as a Silver and when to use it to trash.  I'm not sure that this is well-explored space.
That's because it is quite complicated and varies upon the kingdom cards available. Anything beyond the most general advice is situational. If you need to trash then trash early before your deck gets out of control. If there is a strong expensive card then buy it early.
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Markov Chain

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2011, 10:06:42 pm »
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Let us look at the top 10 cards on the list (without the “always present” treasures or victory cards or prizes) in order:

Mountebank
Witch
Familar
Grand Market
Hunting Party
Masquerade
Ambassador
Ghost Ship
Sea Hag
Venture

I should make one remark about this list (actually I'm just reiterating what the same remarks on Council Room): It does not take into account causation. In particular, one cannot conclude that buying these cards will cause you to win the game. One might buy a particular card because he or she is winning in order to preserve his or her lead; or conversely, one might buy a card not on this list because he is losing. For the most part, I feel vary confident that the cards above cause a player to win instead of the other way around, but you should be wary of this as you browse Council Room further.

I believe the causation issue actually strengthens your point.  Being able to buy a Grand Market (and wanting to buy it because the game isn't about to end) means that you have a powerful deck, and would be likely to win if you bought a Gold or Province instead.  I believe Hunting Party is underappreciated; it's very similar to Laboratory but bought much less often, and the good players are more likely to already know its value.  And Venture is worth buying in a deck with few Coppers, so buying it is the effect of successful trashing.

And only one of the remaining seven is a card that neither removes junk from your deck nor gives it to your opponents; Ghost Ship is a powerful but non-cursing attack.  The top three are the attacks which curse your opponents with a small benefit for you.
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DStu

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2011, 02:17:23 am »
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Nice article, I just have one quibble about this part:

Some key points:

1. Trashing is often underrated by new players.
2. If Chapel is on the board, BUY IT! While it is not as imperative, the same things go for Steward, Lookout,  Loan, Montebank, and Witch.

Steward, Lookout, and Loan are actually relatively mediocre trashers IMO.  After Chapel, I'd say that Remake and Masquerade are the other two elite trashers, and on average I'd also take Salvager, Moneylender, and Apprentice above those three as well.  Obviously it depends on the situation once you get past the Chapel/Remake/Masquerade troika; e.g. Minions make Loan awesome and Sea Hags are a good reason to trash with Lookout.  But in general I prefer the trash-for-benefit cards.

Ambassador is also worth a mention as a way to thin your deck, though it technically isn't "trashing" and the attack is just as important.

I think it depends on what your plan is. Just for the trashing purpose, Steward is the third best trasher in the game. Forge trashes arbitrary, Chapel trashes 4, Steward trashes 2. Remake kind of trashes 2, the rest 1, if I didn't forget someone.  The other ones "just" give bonus for building up your deck. But if you want to trash asap, "no matter" how your decks locks afterwards, Steward is very good.
I feel like if you are really going for a strategy which requiers a very slim deck, it's most easy with the first 4, from which of course Forge is quite difficult to get early. I simulated a bit a while ago with 2xQuarry->Grand Market, and all these "trash 1" cards where basically to slow to beat BMU (because the Quarrys take too long to collide), while Steward worked quite well. I think it is similiar if you want to get Treasure Maps collide, or go for some Conspirator/Cantrip engine.

The trash for benefits are nevertheless often better, as you often don't need a deck which is cleaned of the last copper, and the benefits they give helps you to improve your deck in the early stages. Especially if you are going to play some BigMoney variant, (weak) trashing (Loan/Lookout) usually is not so powerfull that it is worth to take some bad turns in the beginning.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 02:20:15 am by DStu »
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2011, 04:43:45 am »
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11/5 is still not 2.1 ;)
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DStu

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2011, 05:57:52 am »
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11/5 is still not 2.1 ;)

It is. It's even more ;)
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chwhite

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2011, 07:11:12 pm »
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Nice article, I just have one quibble about this part:

Some key points:

1. Trashing is often underrated by new players.
2. If Chapel is on the board, BUY IT! While it is not as imperative, the same things go for Steward, Lookout,  Loan, Montebank, and Witch.

Steward, Lookout, and Loan are actually relatively mediocre trashers IMO.  After Chapel, I'd say that Remake and Masquerade are the other two elite trashers, and on average I'd also take Salvager, Moneylender, and Apprentice above those three as well.  Obviously it depends on the situation once you get past the Chapel/Remake/Masquerade troika; e.g. Minions make Loan awesome and Sea Hags are a good reason to trash with Lookout.  But in general I prefer the trash-for-benefit cards.

Ambassador is also worth a mention as a way to thin your deck, though it technically isn't "trashing" and the attack is just as important.

I think it depends on what your plan is. Just for the trashing purpose, Steward is the third best trasher in the game. Forge trashes arbitrary, Chapel trashes 4, Steward trashes 2. Remake kind of trashes 2, the rest 1, if I didn't forget someone.  The other ones "just" give bonus for building up your deck. But if you want to trash asap, "no matter" how your decks locks afterwards, Steward is very good.
I feel like if you are really going for a strategy which requiers a very slim deck, it's most easy with the first 4, from which of course Forge is quite difficult to get early. I simulated a bit a while ago with 2xQuarry->Grand Market, and all these "trash 1" cards where basically to slow to beat BMU (because the Quarrys take too long to collide), while Steward worked quite well. I think it is similiar if you want to get Treasure Maps collide, or go for some Conspirator/Cantrip engine.

The trash for benefits are nevertheless often better, as you often don't need a deck which is cleaned of the last copper, and the benefits they give helps you to improve your deck in the early stages. Especially if you are going to play some BigMoney variant, (weak) trashing (Loan/Lookout) usually is not so powerfull that it is worth to take some bad turns in the beginning.

I'd say that Remake is pretty much strictly better at trashing than Steward except in those rare cases where literally all that matters is trimming down to the smallest possible deck so you can get your Quarries or TMs to collide.  This is because trashing isn't just about getting a small deck, most of the time it's mainly about increasing the average value of your hands, so you can buy better stuff.  Turning Estates into Silver (or better, like FV or a cantrip) is much more efficient at the primary purpose of trashing than just removing those Estates.  Granted, Steward can sometimes be more useful in the late game when you want its other benefits, though Remake has late-game benefits too.

Masquerade is an odder case: it's not an efficient trasher at all.  But there are two factors that make it elite: first, the +2 Cards means that you have a full hand of five cards to buy stuff with after your draw and trash, so you can bootstrap to higher price points faster than more efficient trashing (and the +Card means it comes back into your deck faster).  But almost as important is the fact that Masquerade's passing element means that when it's on the board you *can't* go for a strategy that requires a super-slim deck.  If you clean out all your Coppers and Estates, then an opponent that goes Masquerade will have Coppers to give while you're stuck passing Gold.  When Masquerade is on the board, inefficient trashing is probably better than efficient trashing, and oh look!  Masq is that inefficient trasher you want right there!

BTW I might actually go Lookout if I was trashing for a Conspirator+Cantrip deck, as Lookout's +Action and discard effect both improve that particular engine as well: it's more than just a trasher there.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 07:16:15 pm by chwhite »
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Stillhart

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2012, 03:30:11 pm »
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I signed up for this forum to post a thanks for this series of articles.  It's really helpful for a raw noob like myself or my wife.  Do you have plans on expanding the series?
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Qvist

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Re: Making to Level 42- Level 10: Oscar [The Grouch] Is Your Friend
« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2012, 03:33:23 pm »
+1

Welcome to the forum Stillhart.
He was last active on 28 April 2012, so it doesn't seem so.
But if you want to keep improving, most of the articles are great and feel also free to ask questions or post game logs where we can give specific advice.
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