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Author Topic: Upsets  (Read 26282 times)

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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #50 on: December 13, 2012, 11:57:10 pm »
0

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.

Ouch! Major shake up in the round two for sure.
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olneyce

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #51 on: December 14, 2012, 12:18:12 am »
+1

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.
Alright, I'm officially scared.

Games tomorrow morning for me.  We'll see if there's another upset...
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cherdano

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #52 on: December 14, 2012, 06:24:47 am »
0

With a 4-2 win over Wingnut, I just became the lowest seed advancing to the third Round at #53!
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5690.msg153268#msg153268

And I am not surprised!
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Piemaster

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #53 on: December 14, 2012, 09:09:27 am »
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I guess once we get to round 3 it's very difficult to consider anything an upset any more.  Anybody who has made it that far will have to have beaten at least one good player already.
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RisingJaguar

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #54 on: December 14, 2012, 10:18:18 am »
+4

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.

I guess this time around he couldn't...

[sunglasses]

...rise to the occasion.
This killed all the sadness from losing.  :)
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jonts26

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #55 on: December 14, 2012, 11:04:29 am »
0

I guess once we get to round 3 it's very difficult to consider anything an upset any more.  Anybody who has made it that far will have to have beaten at least one good player already.

Once we get through round 3, things stop becoming upsets and start becoming cinderallas.
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olneyce

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #56 on: December 14, 2012, 11:44:50 am »
+2

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.
Alright, I'm officially scared.

Games tomorrow morning for me.  We'll see if there's another upset...
And about that...

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5688.msg154819#msg154819
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jonts26

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #57 on: December 14, 2012, 11:47:38 am »
+2

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.
Alright, I'm officially scared.

Games tomorrow morning for me.  We'll see if there's another upset...
And about that...

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=5688.msg154819#msg154819

I play in a couple of hours. I'm not liking this trend.
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lespeutere

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #58 on: December 14, 2012, 12:00:53 pm »
0

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.

Ouch! Major shake up in the round two for sure.

You should've better listened to Paul Gascoigne: "I never make predictions and I never will."
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DWetzel

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #59 on: December 14, 2012, 12:01:02 pm »
+5

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shark_bait

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #60 on: December 14, 2012, 12:55:16 pm »
0

With the current set-up in the Witch Bracket, a 24 seed or higher will be advancing to the Divisional Semifinals.  That's quite the conglomeration of upsets all in the same area of the bracket.
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Titandrake

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #61 on: December 14, 2012, 01:43:41 pm »
0

Hey, you know that comment a while back about who you should fear more, a high seed or the person who upset the high seed?

I think the answer is the latter from the looks of things. Mostly because you have a lot less information on the latter's play.
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jonts26

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #62 on: December 14, 2012, 02:05:48 pm »
0

With the current set-up in the Witch Bracket, a 24 seed or higher will be advancing to the Divisional Semifinals.  That's quite the conglomeration of upsets all in the same area of the bracket.

I think you mean divisional quarterfinals.
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lespeutere

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #63 on: December 14, 2012, 02:18:43 pm »
0

With the current set-up in the Witch Bracket, a 24 seed or higher will be advancing to the Divisional Semifinals.  That's quite the conglomeration of upsets all in the same area of the bracket.

I think you mean divisional quarterfinals.
shark_bait's right, there are randomname (32), Low Pants... (49), benjigab (25) and Funkiemonk (24). One of them will reach the divisional semis (BI).
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jonts26

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #64 on: December 14, 2012, 02:20:57 pm »
0

With the current set-up in the Witch Bracket, a 24 seed or higher will be advancing to the Divisional Semifinals.  That's quite the conglomeration of upsets all in the same area of the bracket.

I think you mean divisional quarterfinals.
shark_bait's right, there are randomname (32), Low Pants... (49), benjigab (25) and Funkiemonk (24). One of them will reach the divisional semis (BI).

Oh right. I got that, I just added an extra series somewhere. Nothing to see here.
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Kirian

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #65 on: December 15, 2012, 02:52:55 am »
0

RisingJaguar is out.  Seems like Round 2 is where all the upsets are.

I guess this time around he couldn't...

[sunglasses]

...rise to the occasion.
This killed all the sadness from losing.  :)

Glad I could help!!
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Stealth Tomato

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #66 on: December 16, 2012, 10:27:35 pm »
+1

Interestingly, despite significantly fewer upsets in the Thief division than anywhere else, the mean skill remaining is still second-lowest (with all divisions within a range of under 1.3).

On the other hand, the average seeds remaining are:
Witch 74.8
Chapel 71.4
Gardens 69.2
Thief 65.9
So the upset meter does indeed swing heavy toward Witch and away from Thief.

LowPants is the lowest mean skill to advance to Round 3 at just over 30, although mrdudesir is still alive in Round 2 with a mean skill of 26.2.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2012, 10:32:58 pm by Stealth Tomato »
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theory

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #67 on: December 17, 2012, 10:43:29 am »
0

In total there were 33 upsets (defined as any lower seed defeating any higher seed) in Round 1, with 7 of them being in the top 64 overall (or in the top 16 in their bracket).

Chapel: 8 (1 in top 64)
Gardens: 9 (2 in top 64)
Thief: 9 (2 in top 64)
Witch: 7 (2 in top 64)


In Round 2 there were 18 total upsets, defined as any higher seed losing.  Of those losses, there were 9 in the top 32 (or top 8 in the bracket), and 2 upsets where the losing player was an upsetter himself.

Chapel: 5 (4 in top 32)
Gardens: 5 (2 in top 32) (1 outside the top 64)
Thief: 2 (1 in top 32) (1 outside top 64)
Witch: 6 (2 in top 32)
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #68 on: December 17, 2012, 04:24:26 pm »
0

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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #69 on: December 17, 2012, 04:31:24 pm »
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Interestingly, despite significantly fewer upsets in the Thief division than anywhere else, the mean skill remaining is still second-lowest (with all divisions within a range of under 1.3).
Why would you expect upsets to lower the mean skill?
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popsofctown

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #70 on: December 17, 2012, 04:37:15 pm »
+2

LordHedgie is the new RisingJaguar
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mith

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #71 on: December 17, 2012, 05:10:54 pm »
0

Of the six of us who have advanced to the fourth round so far, three of us were in the bottom half of the seeding and only Robz888 was expected to make it this far based on seed.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #72 on: December 17, 2012, 05:14:48 pm »
0

Of the six of us who have advanced to the fourth round so far, three of us were in the bottom half of the seeding and only Robz888 was expected to make it this far based on seed.
Naw, he was expected to lose last round too.


Edit: What I mean is, he was lower-rated than his last round opponent, julie.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2012, 05:27:40 pm by WanderingWinder »
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Robz888

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #73 on: December 17, 2012, 05:22:01 pm »
0

I certainly expected me to lose, based on how well I usually do in tournaments...
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clb

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #74 on: December 17, 2012, 06:16:38 pm »
0

What is the general feeling here? Are so many upsets (some huge!) happening because of a large contingent of skilled, but not previously well known players? Because of a mean skill v. level mismatch? Bad luck? Overconfidence? Something else?
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