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Author Topic: Upsets  (Read 25080 times)

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ednever

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Upsets
« on: December 06, 2012, 03:12:46 pm »
+8

I've been looking through the brackets and I realized what I'm really looking for is seeing upsets - when a much lower anked person wins against a much higher ranked person.

I thought I would strat a thread to keep track of them - for everyone who doesn't want to go through all four challonge sheets every day. If you see an upset post it here (or if you are upset yourself...)

So far:

Round One:

Gardens:
bjmartin (49) over qmech (16)
Mad Dog (45) over Silent Revenge (20)
shraeye (53) over Cherdano (12)

Witch:
Lowpants (49) over Fumachu (16)
SirPeeples (47) over Powerman (18)
Lord Hegie (51) over Qvist (14)

Thief:
Indur (40) over AgileCaveman (25)
Ipnotaizig (45) over Vichu (20)
PitzerMike (44) over Loppo (21)
Zappie (47) over pechoho (18)

Chapel:
MBergstrom (44) over Schneau (21)
EgorK (39) over Moomi (26)


Will Lord Hegie be the new RisingJaguar? We will have to wait and see...
(Lord Hegie currently leads for the biggest upset so far in the tournament - seed 51 over a seed 14! Maybe there should be an award for the biggest upset - defined by the absolute difference in seed level between the two players?)


Ed

Ed
« Last Edit: December 08, 2012, 02:13:08 pm by ednever »
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GigaKnight

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2012, 03:38:25 pm »
0

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting this!  If you happen to notice another, would you also take note of the game split? Convincing upsets are even more interesting than narrow ones. :)
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Robz888

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2012, 03:44:24 pm »
+4

I was shocked to see the Q's--Qvist and qmech--out so early.
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Insomniac

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2012, 03:45:05 pm »
0

I was shocked to see the Q's--Qvist and qmech--out so early.

Don't worry they get shot #2 in the losers bracket.
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PitzerMike

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2012, 03:49:10 pm »
0

Interestingly these are all in the 40-50 over 15-25 range.
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Axxle

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2012, 03:53:45 pm »
0

Not a big upset, but I lost (28) in the Chapel bracket to Beyond Awesome (37)
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Schneau

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2012, 03:54:05 pm »
+3

I've been watching the upsets myself. These are most easily detected on the Entry List page, where those out of the tournament are crossed out and the round they were eliminated is recorded. As someone who was upset, I am upset about all the upsets!


Actually not really, it was a great series. I'm just glad I wasn't the highest seeded player upset.
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soulnet

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2012, 04:33:29 pm »
+2

+1 for the award for upsetting.

I was going to say:

"but absolute difference in seed does not feel good. If the distribution of levels behaved linearly, then absolute difference would be a good measure, but it does not. Its probably more like exponential, so maybe difference of log seed (otherwise known as ratio)?"

but then it felt wrong not to check. I plotted the level distribution and linear approximation seems really reasonable, so +1 also for absolute difference.
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mith

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2012, 04:38:54 pm »
0

My match was an upset by seed, but we were the same level when we played (and I'm only in the 20s because I hadn't been playing much recently).
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Qvist

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2012, 05:16:32 pm »
+2

Thanks ednever, I'm looking in the list myself daily for upsets and hurray, I'm still the biggest upset.  ::)

ednever

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2012, 06:37:15 pm »
0

Interestingly these are all in the 40-50 over 15-25 range.

that's only because I didn't include the 'small upsets'

Not sure what the definition should be, but I didn't think it was really as interesting when a seed 32 wins over a seed 30 or something. I kind of just made judgement calls when I looked through the list.

Ed
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qmech

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2012, 07:14:28 pm »
0

Aww, it's nice to know people care.

I've played much less Dominion since the Goko debacle.  I wonder how much of this list can be explained by long-time players having fallen away from the game.

I was shocked to see the Q's--Qvist and qmech--out so early.

You got two quick upvotes there. ;)
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jonts26

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2012, 07:17:30 pm »
0

You still have quasi if you're looking for a q name to root for.
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theory

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2012, 10:17:55 am »
+2

I imagine upset winners as reacting something like this:

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SirPeebles

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2012, 10:29:54 am »
0

There's also the matter of some players like myself who play IRL more often than on Iso.  I mean, when I entered this contest I hadn't played on iso since probably September.  When I signed back in my level was down to 12, although I guess playing a few games got it up to 18 by the time seeding was determined.
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AdamH

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2012, 11:36:45 am »
0

I was upset by my first-round opponent and during our chat he mentioned how he hovered around L30 (where I am now) but hasn't really played since August. He didn't even know that iso was still up because he just heard about Goko's FAIL and stopped playing online entirely.
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Axxle

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2012, 11:46:04 am »
0

I imagine upset winners as reacting something like this:


And the losers: http://www.nooooooooooooooo.com
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Kirian

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2012, 09:29:49 pm »
0

After being (extremely minorly) upset, I thought about my Iso ranking.  Man, I used to be level 32, but I haven't played very much for a while, so my rating plummeted... obviously I was underseeded.  Right?

Or, maybe, just maybe, not playing nearly as much as before meant I'm not nearly as good a player as I was!  (Which wasn't all that amazing to begin with.)
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shraeye

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2012, 01:44:33 pm »
+5

Sorry to derail this topic back to its original point.  Debating what really constitutes skill is interesting, and had its place, but I had hoped this thread would be for small-time contenders like me to have a few moments of glory when they achieve something great.

I managed to edge past a 12 seed in a battle between a level 10 and a level 37.  I'm stoked for round 2!

Round 1--shraeye beats cherdano 4-2.

Game 1 (cherdano-49 shraeye-36): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-142301-c1a10fe3.html
I thought the winning strategy on this board would be Bazaars/Monuments and use Forge to turn estates into more Monuments to get them played.  Cherdano gets more monuments though, and more treasure.  I get behind at the start, and try to catch up by being fancy with Farmland; it just junks my deck and cherdano claims the win.

Game 2 (shraeye-49 cherdano-34): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-144618-cdad0ff5.html
We both open silver/tournament on a Colony board.  Mountebank features, and Lookout was our best trasher.  I decide to buy an early Province and luck out as it hits and I pick up Followers to help the curse split (which I think I still lost, since I bought no Moats, and cherdano bought 3).  Game ends on piles with curses/estates/tournament gone.  My second to last turn, I had a scare, where I played Trusty steed for cards/actions, when just actions/+2$ would have sealed the win.  I had to watch one more turn full of level2 Cities and cross my fingers.

Game 3 (cherdano-42 shraeye-44): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-145850-7ca5d4f8.html
Both open Silver/Trader.  I am thinking to go straight money, but pick up 2 labs and a market with $5 turns.  Farmland is on this board as well.  Near the end, we both avoided buying province on PPE rule, cherdano tries once, and I hit the 8 I need to win.

Game 4 (cherdano-25 shraeye-38): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-151510-ab320810.html
Young Witch with Native Village as a bane.  I use Warehouse for cycling. Cherdano opts for Black Market, and more fishing villages, trying to win curse split.  Out of the Black Market he grabs an early wharf, and a witch as well.  I buy mostly money (late trade route) and win despite curses.  I had a last turn, where I remebered NOT to draw a card to my NV mat (which was empty), since my Warehouse and Trade Route hadn't come on that shuffle yet.  It turns out Warehouse was next, and using that got me exactly the 8 I needed to finish.

Game 5 (cherdano-38 shraeye-26): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-152623-55a530b0.html
Fishing Villages, Milita, Bishop.  I tried too hard to get fancy with the Fishing Village stack, and use HoP as +buy to get these as well.  Cherdano's more sensible strategy of buy gold, get 5 provinces ended up being stronger.

Game 6 (shraeye-42 cherdano resigns): http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201212/07/game-20121207-153712-69234934.html
Mining Village/Embassy with King's Court.  Also pawns for +buys and Expand to turn Estates into crucial engine pieces.  I probably didn't do this efficiently enough, as I get my 4th colony on Turn 17.  but I hit 11$ early enough, that I went for getting Colonies over getting treasure. (colonies on turns 11/13/16/17, platinum on 14, gold on 16).  Cherdano was using Apothecaries to line up his KC better, and may have gone double colony soon, but my go-for-the-throat strategy won out.

This was an awesome set of games, really my heart was beating like crazy the whole time; thanks cherdano!
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ednever

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2012, 02:13:43 pm »
+1

Newest, biggest upset: shraeye (53) over Cherdano (12)

Updates a few more from the Gardens Division.

Ed
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SwitchedFromStarcraft

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2012, 02:47:27 pm »
0

-snip-
I managed to edge past a 12 seed in a battle between a level 10 and a level 37.  I'm stoked for round 2!
Congrats, Shraeye, and well done!
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axlemn

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Re: Upsets
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2012, 02:49:19 pm »
0

These ranks are for within the divisions.  It's even more impressive to see overall seed differences. 
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Re: Upsets
« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2012, 02:55:17 pm »
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Great job Shraeye
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Re: Upsets
« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2012, 03:08:18 pm »
+1

I just lost in the second round of the Chapel division to wesphys (38 seed).  As a 6 seed, I believe that makes me the highest seed to have lost yet!  At least I can be proud of something  :'(
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Re: Upsets
« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2012, 03:14:20 pm »
0

I just lost in the second round of the Chapel division to wesphys (38 seed).  As a 6 seed, I believe that makes me the highest seed to have lost yet!  At least I can be proud of something  :'(

My condolences.
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