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[eHalcyon]

Dany agreed to support Yara's claim as Queen of the Iron Islands (with some restrictions) so she's already OK with like 6.5 Kingdoms. She's smart enough to recognize that it may be better to ally with the Stark's, and she's already forged an alliance with Yara as a new generation. She could very well do the same with Jon and/or Stansa, especially with Tyrion's counsel.

[Calamitas]

There is no chance, Cersei is going to reihn for longer than a minute...

a) She has no kind of legitimizaton (succession in feudalism)

b) She has literally no allies:
 - Declared war on Dorne/Reach
 - North/Vale declared for Jon
 - Riverlands are fucked up
 - Stormlands should feel usurped (see. a)
 - Westerlands should feel angry because of Kevan!
 - Smallfolk/people from KL should feel angry because of buring down the sept while burning hundreds alive!

Mostly agree, but I believe she does have a legitimate claim simply through marriage. Westerlands probably continue to support her because she's still a Lannister. We can only guess at who the Stormlands would support, but they don't seem to have a reason to turn on Cersei. She was joined with House Baratheon through marriage, her beloved children were "Baratheon", and I don't think it is publicly known or believed that Cersei had a hand in Robert's death. So unless they believe she intentionally killed her own son, they may not have any grudge against her.

@Kuildeous I can't see Melisandre joining Cersei. She's not angry at Jon; she's ashamed of herself and maybe her god. She's also a genuine believer, not just randomly picking people to declare as "chosen" or "favoured". Even though she's been banished, she still believes he's the one. I expect she'll continue trying to help Jon, wherever she ends up. Possibly she winds up with somebody else who has had some connection to the Lord of Light, like Beric or even Dany, but it would be quite a leap for Cersei.

The Stormlanders have a very very very strong argument to turn against Cersei: Her cause is bloody weak! And i think Cersei was offically accused of regicide in the trial (beside incest), burning the Queen alive doesn't seem to be strong evidence in favor of her evidence.

[Calamitas]

Dany agreed to support Yara's claim as Queen of the Iron Islands (with some restrictions) so she's already OK with like 6.5 Kingdoms. She's smart enough to recognize that it may be better to ally with the Stark's, and she's already forged an alliance with Yara as a new generation. She could very well do the same with Jon and/or Stansa, especially with Tyrion's counsel.

You cannot compare the Iron Islands with the North.
First, she didn't have an alliance with the Tyrells (still strongest army of Westeros) that goes probably hand in hand with the Redwynes(Strongest fleet in Westeros) and Dorne when she teamed up with Yara.
She could give her a lot back then, while Jon couldn't when Daenerys knocks with 3 dragons under control (As stated, this won't happen anyway).
Additionally, the North covers nearly half of the area from Westeros. The Islands probably around 5%.

 A deal just like the one Aegon gave to "The king who knelt" would be the likeliest option.

[eHalcyon]

OK Stormlands have reason, but I don't think it's as strong as you say. We don't know what details are public, and those who know the most are now dead or fear death. The Stormlands may not know enough to turn on her, and they don't seem to have anybody prominent enough to lead them against Cersei anyway.

My point with the Iron Islands is that Dany has already shown herself to be fine with <7 Kingdoms (you said that she wouldn't be).  A decent deal is very possible, especially considering:

- Jon is actually a Targaryen. This could come to light in various ways, e.g. Dany gets another vision, or Jon demonstrates the fireproof nature that their family seems to have in the show.

- Dany recognizes that the sins of the father aren't the sins of the son.

- The White Walker's present a major outside threat.

- They're both against Cersei. Enemy of my enemy.

- Dany may sympathize with Sansa as another woman making her way through a patriarchal society.

- Tyrion is reasonable and sympathetic to both Jon and Stansa.

- Dany and Jon may also be tied together by prophecy.

- It's winter. It's probably a bad idea to start a war in the North during winter.

[Calamitas]

You just cannot fight an army containing three dragons. The story of the field of fire (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Fire, no spoilers) has proven that in many ways. Jon might end up as Lord of Winterfell and warden of the north, not more if Dany is just marching through (what is hopefully not going to happen)

[eHalcyon]

You just cannot fight an army containing three dragons. The story of the field of fire (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Fire, no spoilers) has proven that in many ways. Jon might end up as Lord of Winterfell and warden of the north, not more if Dany is just marching through (what is hopefully not going to happen)

Then why did Dany need the Unsullied at all?

Anyway, this doesn't address all the reasons I've provided for why they may not fight each other at all.

[Calamitas]

You just cannot fight an army containing three dragons. The story of the field of fire (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Field_of_Fire, no spoilers) has proven that in many ways. Jon might end up as Lord of Winterfell and warden of the north, not more if Dany is just marching through (what is hopefully not going to happen)

Then why did Dany need the Unsullied at all?

Anyway, this doesn't address all the reasons I've provided for why they may not fight each other at all.

Because the dragons weren't big enough!? Now she doesn't need them for battle anymore, just as cityguard.

Now to your reasons:

- Jon is actually [probably] a Targaryen. This could come to light in various ways, e.g. Dany gets another vision, or Jon demonstrates the fireproof nature that their family seems to have in the show. --> Might happen

- Dany recognizes that the sins of the father aren't the sins of the son. --> Might happen, still no reason to give half of your kingdom away if you own an unbeatable force!

- The White Walker's present a major outside threat. --> Definetly, but i hope the typical "joining each other to beat the threat and live a happy life afterwards" theme is not going to be part of the series.

- They're both against Cersei. Enemy of my enemy. --> Cersei is insanely weak and there is no need for an alliance (cf. page 27)

- Dany may sympathize with Sansa as another woman making her way through a patriarchal society. --> Might happen, still no reason to give half your kingdom away.

- Tyrion is reasonable and sympathetic to both Jon and Stansa. --> Might happen, still no reason to give half your kingdom away.

- Dany and Jon may also be tied together by prophecy. --> Might be the case

- It's winter. It's probably a bad idea to start a war in the North during winter --> Would be a short war (cf. "Field of fire" lasted one day)

[Witherweaver]

I think the biggest points towards Dany not just killing everyone that doesn't kneel to her is Tyrion's influence on her (along with the effects of previous advisors).  She's much more likely now, and especially with Tyrion still by her side (which he presumably will be), to make diplomatic alliances, even possibly give up some land/regions/kingdoms, than she was back in the first four or so Seasons.

[Calamitas]

I think the biggest points towards Dany not just killing everyone that doesn't kneel to her is Tyrion's influence on her (along with the effects of previous advisors).  She's much more likely now, and especially with Tyrion still by her side (which he presumably will be), to make diplomatic alliances, even possibly give up some land/regions/kingdoms, than she was back in the first four or so Seasons.

If you want to conquer a country and you are giving up parts of it because you feel pity about your enemies/opponents, you shouldn't start conquering in the first place. Anyway, no one would be stupid enough (not even Jon) to fight a much bigger army (Tyrells alone have the biggest in Westeros) containing 3 bloody dragons.
Therefore, since this party (Unsullied+Second Sons+Dorne+Reach+3Dragons!!!+Biggest fleet) is so overwhelmingly strong, there is no chance that it will remain that way longer than 1-2 episodes. 

[Witherweaver]

I think the biggest points towards Dany not just killing everyone that doesn't kneel to her is Tyrion's influence on her (along with the effects of previous advisors).  She's much more likely now, and especially with Tyrion still by her side (which he presumably will be), to make diplomatic alliances, even possibly give up some land/regions/kingdoms, than she was back in the first four or so Seasons.

If you want to conquer a country and you are giving up parts of it because you feel pity about your enemies/opponents, you shouldn't start conquering in the first place. Anyway, no one would be stupid enough (not even Jon) to fight a much bigger army (Tyrells alone have the biggest in Westeros) containing 3 bloody dragons.
Therefore, since this party (Unsullied+Second Sons+Dorne+Reach+3Dragons!!!+Biggest fleet) is so overwhelmingly strong, there is no chance that it will remain that way longer than 1-2 episodes.

Well, I think Dany is adopting less of a conquering mindset and more of a ruling mindset.  Or at least is on that track. 

But I agree that there's definitely going to be developments there in regards to her army and dragons.

[Kuildeous]

Littlefinger may be the fly in the ointment. He said that he wants the throne. He’ll pretty much do everything he can to ensure it.

And hey, soon will be Dany and her merry band of kickassery storming Westeros and threatening his vision. So perhaps he’ll be the greatest enemy from within. He may poison the relationship between Jon and Dany (figuratively). He may kill off a dragon by poisoning a few cows (literally).

And the Northmen are all gung-ho over House Stark now, so how will they react if a new contender arrives? Jon may see the wisdom in supporting her bid for the throne, but that’s not going to sit well with his supporters—especially the more traditional ones. This is something else Littlefinger can exploit. And while Dany may be tempted to just lay waste to them, Tyrion will likely advise against it because he knows Stark can be a valuable ally (and a wicked thorn).

I dunno. On paper, it’s very obvious that Cersei will lose in a heartbeat. The writers will find a way to make it not so easy. And then we’ll all bitch about it next year.

[Calamitas]

Littlefinger may be the fly in the ointment. He said that he wants the throne. He’ll pretty much do everything he can to ensure it.

And hey, soon will be Dany and her merry band of kickassery storming Westeros and threatening his vision. So perhaps he’ll be the greatest enemy from within. He may poison the relationship between Jon and Dany (figuratively). He may kill off a dragon by poisoning a few cows (literally).

And the Northmen are all gung-ho over House Stark now, so how will they react if a new contender arrives? Jon may see the wisdom in supporting her bid for the throne, but that’s not going to sit well with his supporters—especially the more traditional ones. This is something else Littlefinger can exploit. And while Dany may be tempted to just lay waste to them, Tyrion will likely advise against it because he knows Stark can be a valuable ally (and a wicked thorn).

I dunno. On paper, it’s very obvious that Cersei will lose in a heartbeat. The writers will find a way to make it not so easy. And then we’ll all bitch about it next year.

I don't think there will be much of a conflict between Dany & Jon (if Dany remains as strong as now), Jon and any other person with a brain in the head, will kneel, take Winterfell and the wardenship of the North.

[Witherweaver]

There's also the 'dragon has three heads' thing, which we take to mean that there will be three riders for the three dragons.  It may be that these are not so much bequeathed by Dany, but instead happen by some other means.. maybe the dragons themselves choose.  So we may end up with dragons on opposing factions, forcing or influencing deals or alliances.

[Calamitas]

There's also the 'dragon has three heads' thing, which we take to mean that there will be three riders for the three dragons.  It may be that these are not so much bequeathed by Dany, but instead happen by some other means.. maybe the dragons themselves choose.  So we may end up with dragons on opposing factions, forcing or influencing deals or alliances.

I think one will get "nettled" (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Sheepstealer, no spoiler), probably by Euron (in the book maybe Quentyn if still alive, otherwise Victarion) and one be ridden regularly from one of those secret Targaryens (Jaime?, Jon?, in the book maybe Aegon?).

[eHalcyon]

"Because the dragons weren't big enough!? Now she doesn't need them for battle anymore, just as cityguard." - Then why didn't she just wait?  Whatever you say, she's still taking an army with her.  The Targaryens brought an army for that first invasion too.  Dragons aren't an instant win card.

"Cersei is insanely weak and there is no need for an alliance" - Her position is tenuous, but she's still on the Iron Throne.  She has power, she is a threat.  She has the Mountain, and that may mean that she'll have more personal zombies.  There's a lot at play; you can't dismiss her out of hand.


"Would be a short war (cf. "Field of fire" lasted one day)" - Different circumstances.  Dragons are amazing but that doesn't mean they're a silver bullet.  Dany may not have the experience to deploy them fully.  Even if she did, there's only three of them and the North is a big place.  How much do dragons mind the cold?  How much control does she really have over them?  Again, there's a lot at play that you can't just hand wave over.


You acknowledged all the other points as possible.  You might dismiss one or two, but taken all together it's certainly reason enough to "give half your kingdom away", especially because it's not yet her kingdom, she doesn't have to fully give it away (there's a lot of middle ground here), and -- as Witherweaver points out -- Dany and Tyrion are making a point of not going on a destructive warpath.  She doesn't want to be seen as the next Mad King, and she's already demonstrated restraint against the Masters.

[LaLight]

I think Arya will play a very important role there. And may be her wolf too

[Calamitas]

"Because the dragons weren't big enough!? Now she doesn't need them for battle anymore, just as cityguard." - Then why didn't she just wait?  Whatever you say, she's still taking an army with her.  The Targaryens brought an army for that first invasion too.  Dragons aren't an instant win card.

"Cersei is insanely weak and there is no need for an alliance" - Her position is tenuous, but she's still on the Iron Throne.  She has power, she is a threat.  She has the Mountain, and that may mean that she'll have more personal zombies.  There's a lot at play; you can't dismiss her out of hand.


"Would be a short war (cf. "Field of fire" lasted one day)" - Different circumstances.  Dragons are amazing but that doesn't mean they're a silver bullet.  Dany may not have the experience to deploy them fully.  Even if she did, there's only three of them and the North is a big place.  How much do dragons mind the cold?  How much control does she really have over them?  Again, there's a lot at play that you can't just hand wave over.


You acknowledged all the other points as possible.  You might dismiss one or two, but taken all together it's certainly reason enough to "give half your kingdom away", especially because it's not yet her kingdom, she doesn't have to fully give it away (there's a lot of middle ground here), and -- as Witherweaver points out -- Dany and Tyrion are making a point of not going on a destructive warpath.  She doesn't want to be seen as the next Mad King, and she's already demonstrated restraint against the Masters.

But here army is probably even bigger than the other ones combined (meaning North + Vale + Westerlands). As said before, Warden of the North + Lord of Winterfell seems to be the best deal I could imagine (its basically what the Starks had before the war and more Jon ever could imagine for himself). However I strongly suspect this won't matter at all, since Dany is not going to sustain that much power in Season 7 respectively tWow/aDoS. Would be just ridiculous.

[Calamitas]

I think Arya will play a very important role there. And may be her wolf too

Perhaps. Still wonder how she managed to do THAT much THAT quick ;-)

[Witherweaver]

The storylines in the show, even in a given episode, are not necessarily told chronologically faithfully with respect to each other.  The show produces are on record saying this.. basically in a given episode one one storyline can span days while the other weeks, even if they're interwoven or otherwise out of order.  The idea is that storytelling/development/drama/etc. is more important than having the timelines match perfectly, and I think that's a good call.   

[Calamitas]

Its still a lot.
She had to
 a) Learn how to face-change
 b) Move to Westeros
 c) Infiltrate the twins
 d) Learn how to cook
 e) Kill off the Freys (why did no one notice, cooking must have taken hours)
 f) Cook them
 g) Organize that you are the only one in the room when Walder wants the pies
 h) Kill Walder Frey

[pingpongsam]

Jon is not fireproof. We saw this with the first wight at castle Black that he attempted to burn and then had to fight the burning wight.

[Calamitas]

Jon is not fireproof. We saw this with the first wight at castle Black that he attempted to burn and then had to fight the burning wight.

Neither Viserys (except the heat didn't hurt him)

[eHalcyon]

But here army is probably even bigger than the other ones combined (meaning North + Vale + Westerlands). As said before, Warden of the North + Lord of Winterfell seems to be the best deal I could imagine (its basically what the Starks had before the war and more Jon ever could imagine for himself). However I strongly suspect this won't matter at all, since Dany is not going to sustain that much power in Season 7 respectively tWow/aDoS. Would be just ridiculous.

Well that's just another reason why she might offer a good deal to Jon then -- her army might not be sustainable.

Jon is not fireproof. We saw this with the first wight at castle Black that he attempted to burn and then had to fight the burning wight.

Maybe he's more fireproof than he used to be now that he's back from the dead.  Magic!

[Calamitas]

But here army is probably even bigger than the other ones combined (meaning North + Vale + Westerlands). As said before, Warden of the North + Lord of Winterfell seems to be the best deal I could imagine (its basically what the Starks had before the war and more Jon ever could imagine for himself). However I strongly suspect this won't matter at all, since Dany is not going to sustain that much power in Season 7 respectively tWow/aDoS. Would be just ridiculous.

Well that's just another reason why she might offer a good deal to Jon then -- her army might not be sustainable.

Jon is not fireproof. We saw this with the first wight at castle Black that he attempted to burn and then had to fight the burning wight.

Maybe he's more fireproof than he used to be now that he's back from the dead.  Magic!

But there is no need for a siege...Look what happened to Harren the Black...And Harrenhall is hell stronger than Winterfell...

[eHalcyon]

But there is no need for a siege...Look what happened to Harren the Black...And Harrenhall is hell stronger than Winterfell...

I'm not talking about a siege.  I'm talking about this:

However I strongly suspect this won't matter at all, since Dany is not going to sustain that much power in Season 7 respectively tWow/aDoS. Would be just ridiculous.