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Author Topic: Gray's Sim Challenge 2  (Read 3216 times)

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Graystripe77

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Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« on: August 24, 2011, 01:50:56 pm »
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This time, six cards:

Lighthouse
Shanty Town
Scout
Horse Traders
Mountebank
Duke

Who can create the best strategy using Geronimoo's sim?
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2011, 02:05:02 pm »
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Question for Geronimoo: if your sim has Horse Traders-estate-copper-copper-shanty town, (or some other such hand where the shanty town can't draw and the extra actions are superfluous), what does it do? The best thing is obviously to HT the estate and shanty town, but is your sim smart enough to come up with that?

Geronimoo

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2011, 02:37:18 pm »
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Since Shanty Town is a Village type effect its play priority is very high and will get played before most other cards. This is obviously far from ideal. There might be some easy fixes for this behavior which I'll add in the next release.
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rinkworks

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2011, 03:09:19 pm »
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Since Shanty Town is a Village type effect its play priority is very high and will get played before most other cards. This is obviously far from ideal. There might be some easy fixes for this behavior which I'll add in the next release.

I have a bot of my own that seems to do pretty well with Shanty Town.  In case it helps you out, the rules are basically:

(1) If you have no other action cards but Shanty Town, play Shanty Town.
(2) If you have exactly one action left, no non-terminals, and at least two terminals, play Shanty Town.
(3) If you have exactly one action left, no non-terminals, and one terminal that draws cards, play Shanty Town.
(4) Play Shanty Town if Horn of Plenty is in your hand and no Shanty Towns have been played yet.
(5) Otherwise, don't play Shanty Town.

This isn't a rigid formula, because the priorities of these rules would have to be integrated in with your other play rules, but basically the idea is not to play Shanty Town unless you need its actions and/or cards.  Because there is a benefit to not playing it, that benefit ranging from "Don't let your opponent know you've drawn and discarded it" to something more substantial, like "Make sure it's available as fodder for Salvager/Forge/Hamlet/Horse Traders/etc if it's not needed."

Note that rule #3 not only enables actions not to be drawn dead but also makes sure Library and Watchtower get to draw an extra card.

Also note that determining what is a terminal vs. non-terminal is tricky (although a crude approximation will still be very good), as some cards (like Conspirator, Throne Room, King's Court, Nobles, Pawn, and Trusty Steed) can be either.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2011, 04:44:09 pm »
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If anyone would like, just make up a strategy without the sim and it can be critiqued by others.
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Geronimoo

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2011, 06:20:12 pm »
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I don't really see what you had in mind because Mountebank is as good as worthless with Horse Traders and Lighthouse in the mix, Scout is always worthless (unless with Victory/Actions-cards like Nobles) and Shanty Town doesn't seem to accomplish much (even after I added the play rules posted by rinkworks).

I'd say the dominant strategy by far is Duchy-Duke-HorseTraders with Lighthouses bought over Coppers but under Silver.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2011, 09:38:56 pm »
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I don't really see what you had in mind because Mountebank is as good as worthless with Horse Traders and Lighthouse in the mix, Scout is always worthless (unless with Victory/Actions-cards like Nobles) and Shanty Town doesn't seem to accomplish much (even after I added the play rules posted by rinkworks).

I'd say the dominant strategy by far is Duchy-Duke-HorseTraders with Lighthouses bought over Coppers but under Silver.

In a game i played with those cards, I was able to do a very similar thing, but with 2 scouts. I just wanted to see if anyone could find the optimal parameters for play.
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michaeljb

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2011, 11:44:39 pm »
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Starting with Geronimoo's built-in bots, COMBO Duchy/Duke/HT already beats BM - Mountebank about 62-35, adding a Lighthouse rule between the Estate and Copper rules improves D/D/HT to 81-17.

edit: I've tried adding something for Scout, but I can't get anything useful with it. It might actually be better with this combo if Mountebank is not around, as Horse Traders will be drawing more cards from Reacting, and Mountebank is decreasing the VP density of the deck.

edit2: Still not getting any benefit from Scout when Mountebank's gone. Giving up any hope on Scout improving Duchy/Duke/HT+Lighthouse.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2011, 12:06:02 am by michaeljb »
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rinkworks

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2011, 08:24:01 am »
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Scout is so situational.  Figure that if Scout draws zero cards, it's hurt you.  If it draws one, you've broken even except for the significant opportunity cost of buying one in the first place.  If it draws two, that's somewhat equivalent to having played a Laboratory, so you're in good shape.  But that suggests a 50-50 split of VP cards and non-VP cards, which sometimes doesn't even happen in the end game.  If it does, and you got a $4 hand late in the game, wouldn't you rather just buy an Estate anyway?  Maybe some buy rules taking these things in mind can be fashioned, but it wouldn't surprise me if most of the simulated games still wouldn't find an opportunity to buy a Scout.
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kn1tt3r

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2011, 09:40:08 am »
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Maybe some buy rules taking these things in mind can be fashioned, but it wouldn't surprise me if most of the simulated games still wouldn't find an opportunity to buy a Scout.
That's the point. $4 buys are mostly too valuable since you basically need HTs and maybe Silvers, so there's just no place for a Scout.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Gray's Sim Challenge 2
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2011, 12:23:40 pm »
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Well then, I guess this set was a fail. Oh well....
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