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Author Topic: New Method to Rate Cards?  (Read 8242 times)

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fp

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New Method to Rate Cards?
« on: June 16, 2011, 05:10:39 pm »
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The "Win Rate" is an okay measure regarding how good a card is, but it just does not seem to do it here is why:

Every game where each player buys a particular card, that will automatically contribute 1.00 toward the "Win Rate" of a card. Hence the "Win Rate with" columns really measure underrated yet effective cards and the "win rate without" effectively measures overrated ineffective cards. The question remains, how does one accurately measure just effective cards regardless of overratedness?

Here are some ideas, none of which are to be taken too serious, just bouncing ideas:

Top 100 +% (The +% but only among the Top 100 players)
Top 100 Win Rate With
Top 100 Win Rate Without

Average number of points per copy.
Average score difference(s).

Average number of Turns until first Province/Colony buy when bought
Average number of Turns until first opposing Province/Colony buy when bought

Any thoughts?

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rrenaud

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2011, 06:26:42 pm »
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It's a hard problem.  I don't think any singular number is really enough to capture it.  And then if you are going to make a complicated model, why not just solve Dominion?  Then you can poke at the model directly and coax it into answering these kind of questions.

https://github.com/rspeer/golem
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fp

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2011, 06:45:52 pm »
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And then if you are going to make a complicated model, why not just solve Dominion?
https://github.com/rspeer/golem

Because Dominion is, at best, NP-Hard.  :P
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theory

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2011, 11:45:56 pm »
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You can measure an asymmetric Win Rate With, i.e., Win Rate When I Got It And You Don't.  This can sort of be derived by comparing Win Rate With, Win Rate Without, and the % gained.
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Kirian

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2011, 12:11:46 am »
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And then if you are going to make a complicated model, why not just solve Dominion?
https://github.com/rspeer/golem

Because Dominion is, at best, NP-Hard.  :P

I think you're underestimating the complexity of Dominion.
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rrenaud

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2011, 03:29:31 pm »
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I think you're underestimating the complexity of Dominion.

Fine, fine.  It doesn't have to solve dominion in the "is this provably the optimal play" sense, it just has to play as well as theory, and actually play in games with Alchemy or King's Court :P.
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theory

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2011, 03:31:24 pm »
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Hey, I do play in King's Courts games!  My restrictions are now !alchemy and !black market, much better than my brief no-attacks-at-all period.
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fp

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Re: New Method to Rate Cards?
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2011, 02:59:39 pm »
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Because Dominion is, at best, NP-Hard.  :P

I think you're underestimating the complexity of Dominion.

Probably. Dominion is more likely EXPTIME-Complete.
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