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Author Topic: Chapel / Bishop  (Read 11518 times)

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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2011, 07:38:47 pm »
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I guess I prioritize a higher chance of hitting turn 9 and lower chance of going turn 10 or later higher than a minority chance of hitting turn 8.  I'm not sure that Chapel/Nothing reduces your odds of going turn 10 or later, but my intuition is that it does.
Getting a to the first province on turn 8 is not a "minority chance", it's probably about 50% (by my rough estimation).

If your chapel falls to turn 5 you miss turn 8. But if it doesn't, you get turn 8 as long as your chapel can trash 7 cards in 2 plays. The logic behind this is that you need to trash 11 cards, and the bishop can do 4 of them. The way the chapel will fail to trash 7 cards is if
a) it collides with the bishop the first time, and then with a bishop or silver the second time
b) it collides with the bishop AND silver the second time
Rough calculation gives me P(a) ~= 25%, and P(b) ~= 15%, so given your chapel doesn't fall to turn 5, you get a turn 8 province 60% of the time. 60% of 83% (chance of getting chapel on turn 3-4) is about 50%.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 07:48:44 pm by HiveMindEmulator »
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DG

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2011, 08:10:46 pm »
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So does it beat smithy/silver, given that smithy/silver usually runs very well against bishops?
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guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2011, 08:31:57 pm »
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OK, here's another one then: http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201108/22/game-20110822-171917-4a9037cb.html

Look man, weird pathological cases for Chapel/nothing aren't especially less common than weird pathological cases for Bishop/Chapel. Missing turn 9 in both cases is very rare (assuming turn 3/4 Chapel). The thing that actually matters is weighing the chance of making turn 8 vs. the extra chance of dropping Chapel to turn 5 with Bishop/Chapel. If you're talking about playing one strategy against the other, you need to consider that Bishop/Chapel is likely up a VP chip in the case where both make turn 9, though of course playing one against the other there's the whole other issue of trashing on your opponent's turn that we haven't analyzed at all yet.
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guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2011, 08:33:05 pm »
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So does it beat smithy/silver, given that smithy/silver usually runs very well against bishops?
Tough to say until somebody has a good Bishop/Chapel simulator.
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Epoch

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2011, 02:45:11 am »
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OK, here's another one then: http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201108/22/game-20110822-171917-4a9037cb.html

Let's go through that one:

— guided's turn 1 —
Buy Chapel

— guided's turn 2 —
Nothing

— guided's turn 3 —
Draws C/C/C/C/E
Buys Bishop

— guided's turn 4 —
Draws Chapel/C/C/E/E
Trashes C/C/E/E

State of draw right before end of turn 4 draw: 1 Copper
State of discard pile before reshuffle: 4 Coppers, 1 Estate, 1 Chapel, 1 Bishop
Draw is 4 Coppers, 1 Estate, leaving a draw pile of 1 Copper, 1 Chapel, 1 Bishop -- Chapel and Bishop both miss the shuffle.

— guided's turn 5 —
Buys a Silver

State of draw pile: 1 Copper, 1 Chapel, 1 Bishop
State of discard pile before reshuffle: 4 Coppers, 1 Estate, 1 Silver.
Draw is Chapel, Bishop, Copper x3.
Left in draw pile after reshuffle: 2 Coppers, 1 Estate, 1 Silver

— guided's turn 6 —
Chapels Copper x3
State of draw pile: 2 Coppers, 1 Estate, 1 Silver
Discard pile:  Chapel, Bishop
Draw is: 2 Coppers, 1 Estate, 1 Silver, 1 Bishop -- Chapel misses the shuffle again.

— guided's turn 7 —
Bishops an Estate, buys a Silver.
Draw pile is: 1 Chapel
Discard pile:  2 Coppers, 2 Silvers, Bishop

...and from there, play is predictable and deterministic, as you only need to trash one more Copper, which you're guaranteed to draw with a trasher.  So, yeah, that was a case of the chapel missing two shuffles and the Bishop missing one shuffle -- it's admittedly a case where Chapel/Nothing sucks, but obviously there's a chance for either strategy to miss two shuffles.

Look man, weird pathological cases for Chapel/nothing aren't especially less common than weird pathological cases for Bishop/Chapel.

How do you know?

Missing turn 9 in both cases is very rare (assuming turn 3/4 Chapel). The thing that actually matters is weighing the chance of making turn 8 vs. the extra chance of dropping Chapel to turn 5 with Bishop/Chapel.

I agree that that's the more important issue.

If you're talking about playing one strategy against the other, you need to consider that Bishop/Chapel is likely up a VP chip in the case where both make turn 9, though of course playing one against the other there's the whole other issue of trashing on your opponent's turn that we haven't analyzed at all yet.

I think that in the case of a mirror strategy, Bishop/Chapel is the way to go.  The extra shot at a trash on turn 3/4 probably significantly increases the odds of a turn 8 Province, and getting a turn 9 Province essentially is headed for a draw or a coin-flip based on who Bishoped the most Estates.
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kn1tt3r

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2011, 05:53:01 am »
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Well, actually you do want a deck with a Gold in the end because the target ist to buy Provinces and trash them again. I agree that an early "lucky" Gold might slow you down but at some point you want one. And that's the problem with this Chapel/nothing variant. You just lack buying power.

Let's have a look at the best-case scenario for Chapel/Bishop opening (I also tried a worst case, but that's far more complicated):

Turn 3 => Chapel E C C C (trash all)
Turn 4 => Bishop E E C C (trash E, buy Silver) [Draw: C C | Disc: Bishop, Chapel E C C S])
Turn 5 => Chapel E C C C (trash 3x C) [now only 5 cards are left]
Turn 6 => Chapel Bishop E C S (trash Chapel, buy Silver)
Turn 7 => Bishop E C S S (trash Estate, buy Gold)

Now you have the deck to go for Provinces, plus you have already gathered 6 VP from Bishop (plus 1 VP for the next trashed Copper).


With Chapel/nothing it's probably something like this:

Turn 3 => Chapel E E C C (trash all)
Turn 4 => E C C C C (buy Bishop) [Draw: C | Disc: Bishop Chapel E C C C C]
Turn 5 => Chapel E C C C (trash 3x C) [5 card deck now]
Turn 6 => Bishop Chapel E C C (trash Chapel, buy Silver)
Turn 7 => Bishop E C C S (trash Estate, buy Silver)
Turn 8 => Bishop C C S S (trash Copper, buy Gold)

=> 5 VP (+1 VP for the last Copper)

So you need at least one turn longer and net one VP less.

Maybe the worst cases are a bit worse with Chapel/Bishop opening, but well... you have always the possibilty to change gears and turn to another strategy. I think if you go for this strategy (which is a risky decision anyway) you just HAVE to take the potentially faster course.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2011, 06:00:58 am by kn1tt3r »
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guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #31 on: August 23, 2011, 09:01:24 am »
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How do you know?
Because even if it's like 5% and 2% (which I won't necessarily allow that it is), who cares? Those are tiny slivers compared to the cases that actually matter.
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guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2011, 09:05:54 am »
+1

Well, actually you do want a deck with a Gold in the end because the target ist to buy Provinces and trash them again. I agree that an early "lucky" Gold might slow you down but at some point you want one. And that's the problem with this Chapel/nothing variant. You just lack buying power.
Again, the Gold is a complete gimme once the trashing is done. The end state of trashing down to 5 cards for either opening is the same: Bishop/Chapel/Silver/Silver/Copper. (Or occasionally Bishop/Silver/Silver/Copper/Copper, which isn't really any different.) There is no need whatsoever, and nor does it do you any good, to put a Gold in your deck before the trashing is done. Sure, you'll take a Gold instead of a Silver if you happen to hit $6 after you have a Bishop and before you have 2 Silvers in your deck, but it's unlikely to matter. Again, you should literally pass on your buy phase with $6 rather than buying Gold if you already have 2 Silvers and a Bishop in your deck and the trashing isn't done yet... unless you think you have a better chance by abandoning the 5-card deck strategy, which might be the case if the shuffles have gone wrong.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2011, 09:09:04 am by guided »
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kn1tt3r

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #33 on: August 23, 2011, 09:16:45 am »
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Well, actually you do want a deck with a Gold in the end because the target ist to buy Provinces and trash them again. I agree that an early "lucky" Gold might slow you down but at some point you want one. And that's the problem with this Chapel/nothing variant. You just lack buying power.
Again, the Gold is a complete gimme once the trashing is done. The end state of trashing down to 5 cards for either opening is the same: Bishop/Chapel/Silver/Silver/Copper. (Or occasionally Bishop/Silver/Silver/Copper/Copper, which isn't really any different.) There is no need whatsoever, and nor does it do you any good, to put a Gold in your deck before the trashing is done. Sure, you'll take a Gold instead of a Silver if you happen to hit $6 after you have a Bishop and before you have 2 Silvers in your deck, but it's unlikely to matter. Again, you should literally pass on your buy phase with $6 rather than buying Gold if you already have 2 Silvers and a Bishop in your deck and the trashing isn't done yet... unless you think you have a better chance by abandoning the 5-card deck strategy, which might be the case if the shuffles have gone wrong.
Agreed.

What I tried to say was that with an Chapel/nothing opening you get silver later (because you need to buy Bishop in turn 3/4) and therefore also get the Gold later (that you need after trashing).

Essentially it is just the turn you deny to "use" in the beginning that finally costs you one turn in the end. It has nothing to do with the Gold itself.
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Epoch

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #34 on: August 23, 2011, 12:48:15 pm »
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Sure, you'll take a Gold instead of a Silver if you happen to hit $6 after you have a Bishop and before you have 2 Silvers in your deck, but it's unlikely to matter.

I'm going to say that I don't think it ever matters, in fact.  I can't even arrange a deck (obviously, by that I mean a Chapel/Bishop deck aiming for the 5 card deck), with perfect shuffle luck, that gets a Province turn 7 this way.  I'm not sure I can even arrange a deck with perfect shuffle luck where the difference between a Gold and a Silver means that it goes from turn 9 to turn 8.

Okay, here's a way it might matter: it's a Colony game, not a Province game, and you end up on the turn you trash your Chapel having Gold/Silver/Chapel/Bishop/Copper, you trash the chapel, getting $7, so your five card deck is Gold/Gold/Bishop/Silver/Copper, trash the Copper, start to go.  Now your opponent gets ahead of you briefly, but they aren't doing a trashing strategy, so their deck is losing buying power with green cards.  You think it's worthwhile to buy non-Provinces to amass victory tokens without ending the game.  Ordinarily, you'd buy and trash Golds for 4 VP each turn if that happened, but in this game you can buy and trash Platinums for 5 VP tokens each turn.

Obviously, not something you should even remotely plan or shoot for.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2011, 12:52:58 pm by Epoch »
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #35 on: August 23, 2011, 12:55:19 pm »
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The only way it would matter is if you somehow need to bishop the gold several turns down the line (or, I guess, if there's a 7 on the board you eventually wanna buy, or a grand market or something, but in this case, you're diverting from the simple original basic strategy we're talking about). I expect this would be extremely rare and when this happens, you've almost assuredly lost anyway.

WanderingWinder

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2011, 01:01:02 pm »
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Oh and actually, for the colony game, have you considered just going for the provinces? 45 points in 15-16 turns is going to be tough to beat, even if they're being accelerated by your bishopping. Seems that the big way to disrupt this is... almost any attack, 'cause nearly every one sorta derails it. Exceptions are cutpurse (which still might slow it a turn or two), Jester (which does nothing once you're set up), thief/pirate ship (which could hurt if they hit at the exact wrong time), and probably a couple others that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head. But handsize attacks and cursers (and ambassador) will really throw a monkey wrench.

guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2011, 01:06:25 pm »
+1

I'm going to say that I don't think it ever matters, in fact.
It matters if you abandon the 5-card deck strategy due to bad shuffle luck. Indeed hitting $6 in that situation likely means you're screwed for the 5-card deck strategy since you missed a trashing turn with 4 coppers left in your deck even after you had a Silver and a Bishop.
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Superdad

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #38 on: August 24, 2011, 11:49:19 am »
+1

Oh and actually, for the colony game, have you considered just going for the provinces? 45 points in 15-16 turns is going to be tough to beat, even if they're being accelerated by your bishopping. Seems that the big way to disrupt this is... almost any attack, 'cause nearly every one sorta derails it. Exceptions are cutpurse (which still might slow it a turn or two), Jester (which does nothing once you're set up), thief/pirate ship (which could hurt if they hit at the exact wrong time), and probably a couple others that I'm not thinking of off the top of my head. But handsize attacks and cursers (and ambassador) will really throw a monkey wrench.

Indeed, I've mentioned this before in many other bishop threads, but I find it's almost always better to just drain provinces in colony games. I have no idea why you would take so much longer to get up to colonies instead of just draining provinces.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #39 on: August 24, 2011, 12:16:44 pm »
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It's USUALLY better to go for the colonies. Going for a lot of provinces is going to clog up faster than you'd think in most cases, and you only need to get to 5 colonies to beat all the provinces. It's generally easier to do that, and then maybe mix it up along the way. People do tend to wait too long to buy provinces, though. And in most bishop cases, the trashing is going to help the colony player more. But if you can get the five card deck fast.... That's why I think it may be better here.

Epoch

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #40 on: August 25, 2011, 12:13:43 pm »
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The five card deck takes, what, two more turns to go to Colonies, doesn't it?

Bishop, Gold, Silver, Silver, Copper: trash the Copper, play $7 -> Gold.
Bishop, Gold, Gold, Silver, Silver: trash the Silver, play $8 -> Platinum.
Bishop, Platinum, Gold, Gold, Silver: trash the Silver, play $11 -> Colony.

I think it's at least worth exploring the idea that in a Colony game, that's the better play.  I don't know it is, but do we have a lot of reason to think it's not?
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guided

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #41 on: August 25, 2011, 12:24:48 pm »
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I think it's at least worth exploring the idea that in a Colony game, that's the better play.  I don't know it is, but do we have a lot of reason to think it's not?
The reason to be suspicious of this strategy is that you only net 6 VPs per Colony while taking 2 more turns to get started (during which you net 5 VPs, assuming you trash a Gold instead of a Silver on that last turn). The reason to think it might still be a good play is that a non-Bishop opponent's probable best hope for catching up (buying Colonies) will help you end the game.

On a separate note, it's important to consider when we estimate the pace with which an opponent can get to X number of Provinces or Colonies that they will be sped along by the free trashing we're giving away.
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Epoch

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #42 on: August 25, 2011, 12:43:26 pm »
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I think it's at least worth exploring the idea that in a Colony game, that's the better play.  I don't know it is, but do we have a lot of reason to think it's not?
The reason to be suspicious of this strategy is that you only net 6 VPs per Colony while taking 2 more turns to get started (during which you net 5 VPs, assuming you trash a Gold instead of a Silver on that last turn).

Of course you're right: trashing Gold is the better play before going into Colonies.

The reason to think it might still be a good play is that a non-Bishop opponent's probable best hope for catching up (buying Colonies) will help you end the game.

Yeah, that was my thought.  It cuts down the possibility of your opponent's deck kicking into gear and catching up with you.  It also renders a Province-based catching up strategy all-but-impossible, I think (since someone just buying Provinces is gaining only the same number of VP per turn that you are, and is presumably slowing down their deck.  An exception would be if they could set up a multiple-buy mega-turn.)

I guess here's the other thing: it feels like most decks would take more than two turns to get from "a Province-buying deck" to "a Colony-buying deck."  So if you're getting to a Colony-buying deck in those two turns -- even though you aren't realizing anything like 10 VP a turn -- they lose tempo trying to catch up and buy Colonies, or they have the unappealing prospect of trying to match you on Provinces.
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rinkworks

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #43 on: August 25, 2011, 01:25:29 pm »
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I have a related question.  With the five-card hand Bishop-Silver-Silver-Gold-Province, another play you could make would be to trash a Silver, buy a Gold, and wind up with Bishop-Silver-Gold-Gold-Province.  Thereafter, Bishop a Gold and buy a Gold ad nauseum.  Your income is 4 VP per turn for as long as the game lasts, which is now something you're giving up control of.

My question is, is there ever any reason to go this route, instead of the more traditional route of Bishopping the Province every turn?  Maybe if you're currently behind on VP and hope that, by prolonging the game, your steady income will eventually overtake your opponent's slowing greening power?

Just curious.  I ask because when I first heard of this trick, it was by stumbling into it by accident in an actual game.  But I mistakenly thought Bishopping the Golds was the best way to play it.  Didn't learn the Province play until I read about it on here.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #44 on: August 25, 2011, 01:34:41 pm »
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Yes, if you're behind, this is a great way to go. However, that's extremely unlikely in the chapel/bishop case (if it does happen you're probably toast), and in many other cases you'll have cleared their deck out too much with your bishop, unless they've gone green too early.

Epoch

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #45 on: August 25, 2011, 01:52:25 pm »
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I have a related question.  With the five-card hand Bishop-Silver-Silver-Gold-Province, another play you could make would be to trash a Silver, buy a Gold, and wind up with Bishop-Silver-Gold-Gold-Province.  Thereafter, Bishop a Gold and buy a Gold ad nauseum.  Your income is 4 VP per turn for as long as the game lasts, which is now something you're giving up control of.

My question is, is there ever any reason to go this route, instead of the more traditional route of Bishopping the Province every turn?  Maybe if you're currently behind on VP and hope that, by prolonging the game, your steady income will eventually overtake your opponent's slowing greening power?

EDIT:  Me am stupid.  I understand now.  Nevermind.

EDIT 2:  You aren't really giving up control of when the game ends.  At any point, if you like, you can transition back into trashing your Province and buying new ones.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2011, 01:56:10 pm by Epoch »
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Superdad

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #46 on: August 26, 2011, 11:57:53 am »
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The thing to remember though is that you are only going to be gaining 5 vp per turn. This actually isn't that much.

This strategy lives or dies on it's ability to end the game quickly (like, by turn 15 or so). If you are way behind and the opponent is very susceptible to greening, I suppose going for 4VP per turn, every turn, could possibly get you back in, provided that there will be no way he can purchase the last province.

For example, if I start with this strategy and my opponent is already at 3 provinces by turn 9, I could see potentially trying to win this long-game in this way. I.e. Force him to buy all 8 provinces. Most Big Money decks can hit all 8 provinces by around turn 24 or so, giving them 51 points, assuming no duchies and still having 3 estates in their deck.

You can start trashing golds each turn by turn 8 (which is your first gold-trash), and you probably already have 4-5 VP so far. Gaining 4 per turn for 16 turns gives you 64-69 VP (depending if you bishop'd your estates, or chapelled them all).

It would be a close race. If you pick up provinces, you are allowing him to end earlier than turn 24ish. If he picks up duchies, he may risk pushing turn 24 ending out to turn 25+, but he gained 3 extra VP.

Some strategies are not as succeptible to greening (venture, vault, hunting party), so if he took an early province lead on those strategies, I would say that you should still rush the Province quick-ending, because he'll buy all 8 provinces by turn 20 or so, not turn 24+.

TL:DR - I'd only recommend trashing gold and extending the game if you went down VERY early something like 3 or 4 to 1, and if his deck is succeptible to greening.
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kn1tt3r

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #47 on: September 12, 2011, 08:03:36 am »
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I did it again:
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110908-102417-acc89c42.html

Quite perfect board for this kind of strategy.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #48 on: September 12, 2011, 08:35:14 am »
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Here's a point that I don't think anyone has mentioned. In a Colony game, regardless of whether you're going for Colonies or Provinces, you only need 3 cards + the Victory card to make the Combo work, so you can finish the game with 20 (or 12) points in your deck, in addition to all the tokens. Of course, this requires buying Platinums. Does this make the combo better than otherwise thought in Colony games?
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Re: Chapel / Bishop
« Reply #49 on: September 12, 2011, 08:51:26 am »
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I guess it depends on the timing.

If you can setup Bishop-Plat-Plat-Col-Col in a decent amount of time, it's near unbeatable.

If you empty out the entire Colony stack, this will gain you 6*6 + 20 = 56 points.
If the opponent would snag 3 Colonies, you still have 3*6 + 20 = 38 points vs his 30.
4 Colonies for your opponent is too much of course, bút you can control the pace perfectly and switch to Provinces if needed.
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