Topic: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Mafia Wins!) (Read 165849 times)

Galzria · « **Reply #1325 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:06:22 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 11:59:45 am

If we force claims, then you allow mafia to know who is safe to kill tonight.

I'm not saying we should. I'm saying we're F'ing ourselves if we don't and then mislynch. Once is bad, twice would be terrible. But I'm hopeful we won't mislynch at all.

jotheonah · « **Reply #1326 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:06:28 pm »

Chicken vote: Frisk
CHICKEN.
Chicken unvote

Chicken vote: ashersky

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1327 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:06:47 pm »

That of course, assumes that asher is scum. If he flips town, scum will know everything they need.

Insomniac · « **Reply #1328 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:09:36 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:06:47 pm

That of course, assumes that asher is scum. If he flips town, scum will know everything they need.

This is the problem. If he is town then were just f'd because there was no sims. If he is town then you both live because scum has 50/50 to win

jotheonah · « **Reply #1329 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:10:55 pm »

Chicken vote: Archetype

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1330 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:11:56 pm »

Quote from: Insomniac on October 30, 2012, 12:09:36 pm

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:06:47 pm
That of course, assumes that asher is scum. If he flips town, scum will know everything they need.
This is the problem. If he is town then were just f'd because there was no sims. If he is town then you both live because scum has 50/50 to win

Not true - we're at 11 alive now, correct?

Mislynch asher today - 10
town NK - 9
mislynch me tomorrow - 8
town NK - 7

That's still 4 on 3. At that point you'll know that eevee is scum

lynch eevee - 6 (4 v 2)
town NK - 5 (3 vs. 2) - lylo.

Galzria · « **Reply #1331 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:18:23 pm »

Quote from: Insomniac on October 30, 2012, 12:09:36 pm

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:06:47 pm
That of course, assumes that asher is scum. If he flips town, scum will know everything they need.
This is the problem. If he is town then were just f'd because there was no sims. If he is town then you both live because scum has 50/50 to win

Exactly. If Ash is lynched and flips town, CF is assuming that scum would kill the remaining PR - but why in the world would they? They've got a guaranteed kill of a VT, and it leaves us not knowing which of the two remaining claimants is telling the truth and which is lying. If they kill the remaining PR, they out their own liar.

So I come back to: If we don't lynch correctly, and don't claim, we're F'ing ourselves. If we DO lynch correctly and don't claim we're in great shape. I don't like not claiming and forcing a 1-1, but I do see the value in it. It'a just a bloody tough pill to swallow knowing we may be digging our own graves when we have the opportunity to force a scum lynch at worst by tomorrow (making the odds 50/50 today instead of worrying about a mislynch and 50/50 tomorrow)

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1332 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:18:52 pm »

This actually really interesting. Forcing claims today will prevent mislynch tomorrow, but will guarantee that the cutpurse dies tonight.

if asher is town - then we absolutely want the claims. If asher is scum, we don't. Because i believe asher is scum, I'm willing to chance it.

jotheonah · « **Reply #1333 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:21:07 pm »

Chicken! Chicken chicken chicken!

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1334 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:22:26 pm »

so - from a neutral observer - and completely discounting claim orders:

No claim:

1/3 chance of lynching scum today
Success - 2/8 chance to lynch tomorrow - with at least 1 confirmed townies
Fail - 1/2 chance to lynch tomorrow

Claim
1/2 chance of lynching scum today
Success - 2/9 chance to lynch tomorrow
Fail - 100% chancel to lynch tomorrow.

Jorbles · « **Reply #1335 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:22:56 pm »

Vote Count 2.7

ashersky (3): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
Captain_Frisk (1): Archetype
Galzria (1): ashersky
Eevee (1): Cuzz
Archetype (3): Galzria, yuma, jotheonah

Not voting (2): shraeye, Insomniac

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Currently Cursed: jotheonah, Grujah

Curse deadline: Thursday Nov 1, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)
Lynch deadline: Tuesday Oct 30, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)

Please confirm your votes are in the correct place. I say this because I don't have the same vote count as you guys.

Galzria · « **Reply #1336 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:23:12 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:18:52 pm

This actually really interesting. Forcing claims today will prevent mislynch tomorrow, but will guarantee that the cutpurse dies tonight.

if asher is town - then we absolutely want the claims. If asher is scum, we don't. Because i believe asher is scum, I'm willing to chance it.

This is exactly what I'm teetering on. Town Ash = claiming good. Scum Ash = claiming bad.

Insomniac · « **Reply #1337 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:23:22 pm »

STOP!

Insomniac · « **Reply #1338 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:23:46 pm »

I just realized there is no possible world in which ashersky is lying. Explain post coming

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1339 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:24:34 pm »

jorbles, your numbers are way wrong.

Jorbles · « **Reply #1340 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:25:41 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:24:34 pm

jorbles, your numbers are way wrong.

I noticed that immediately. Apologies. Is your vote in the right place?

Insomniac · « **Reply #1341 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:26:49 pm »

Assume ashersky is lying. That means 1 of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse and the other is the pearl diver. This is fine so far. However the town consensus WAS to shoot ashersky yesterday while cursed. Once that consensus had been reached BOTH of CF and Eevee had been online BEFORE the curse came off. Therefore if one of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse they defied towns request and DIDN'T shoot ash. That doesn't make sense from a town standpoint.

This leads me to conclude that Ashersky SHOULDN'T (95/100 times) be the liar.

Insomniac · « **Reply #1342 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:28:10 pm »

I trust Frisk more than Eevee.

Vote: Eevee

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1343 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:28:39 pm »

Stop fishing via different means insomniac.

Galzria · « **Reply #1344 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:29:01 pm »

Quote from: Captain_Frisk on October 30, 2012, 12:22:26 pm

so - from a neutral observer - and completely discounting claim orders:

No claim:

1/3 chance of lynching scum today
Success - 2/8 chance to lynch tomorrow - with at least 1 confirmed townies
Fail - 1/2 chance to lynch tomorrow

Claim
1/2 chance of lynching scum today
Success - 2/9 chance to lynch tomorrow
Fail - 100% chancel to lynch tomorrow.

So if we claim and fail, we lose three town (both PR's) and a scum by D4 start. That's worst case. Best case is we succeed, and lose 1 town PR, 1 scum by D3 start.

If we don't claim, best case is we succeed in the lynch, losing 1 PR tonight and 1 scum by D3 (best best case is scum targets a hidden PD). Worst case is 2 mislynches + 1 correct lynch D4 + 3 NK's = 5 dead town (both PR's), 1 dead scum by D5 start.

Correct?

shraeye · « **Reply #1345 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:29:44 pm »

I agree with Frisk, I don't think town actually came to the cutpurse consensus. That sounds super fishy.

I'm sticking with my initial read.

Vote: ashersky

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1346 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:31:04 pm »

Insomniac, neither eevee nor I were voting asher yesterday - if either of us is the cutpurse, its perfectly reasonable that we wouldn't have struck.

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1347 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:31:44 pm »

My vote is in the right place jorbles.

jotheonah · « **Reply #1348 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:32:10 pm »

Chicken vote: Insomniac

Captain_Frisk · « **Reply #1349 on:** October 30, 2012, 12:35:11 pm »

Joth - i agree that insomniac is being crazy here, but I don't see heads down better than lynching asher, who is > 50% scum for me right now.

Eevee's 2nd claim might have been brilliant "draw out the other PR" claim, but I doubt it. I don't recall any f.ds instance where scum were actively doing such crazy stuff.

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Author Topic: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Mafia Wins!) (Read 165849 times)