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Author Topic: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Mafia Wins!)  (Read 165922 times)

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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1000 on: October 24, 2012, 04:19:59 pm »

That, plus, if he wanted to push it away from Robz for real, he'd go after jo or Eevee, he wouldn't go for horrible self-lynch idea that nobody was gonna do anyway. He's "attempt" at saving robz was pathetically bad.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1001 on: October 24, 2012, 04:21:40 pm »

Chicken Vote: Grujah
Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Unvote


Chicken Vote: Eevee
Chicken Vote: Grujah
Chicken Vote: Galzria
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1002 on: October 24, 2012, 04:24:29 pm »

Insomniac wouldn't know that RobZ was the most powerful townie

True enough, but he would have known he was a PR of some kind, and the way Robz was begging to live he might have guessed. The other PRs aren't really all that powerful are they?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1003 on: October 24, 2012, 05:23:18 pm »

Grujah, what would you say if we said we're holding you to your bargain with Robz, and we want to lynch you today?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1004 on: October 24, 2012, 05:33:27 pm »

Chicken Vote: jotheonah
Chicken
Chicken Unvote


Chicken Vote: Eevee
Chicken Vote: Grujah
Chicken Vote: Galzria


Chicken Vote: Grujah
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1005 on: October 24, 2012, 06:02:33 pm »

It's ultra-frustrating to have both your town reads heavily suspecting and even voting for you. We see this game completely different.. I usually see eye to eye with Galzria so well, I'm left to think our disagreements here are because Galzria is scum. But, maybe I'm the one who is clueless.

This really really reads as a hardcore form of buddying to get people reading you as scum to back off.  "You think I'm scum, but I was sooo suuure you were town!" is just designed to make someone think, oh man, this person is correct about me; I suppose they aren't so bad after all.

Vote: Eevee
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1006 on: October 24, 2012, 06:07:33 pm »

It's ultra-frustrating to have both your town reads heavily suspecting and even voting for you. We see this game completely different.. I usually see eye to eye with Galzria so well, I'm left to think our disagreements here are because Galzria is scum. But, maybe I'm the one who is clueless.

This really really reads as a hardcore form of buddying to get people reading you as scum to back off.  "You think I'm scum, but I was sooo suuure you were town!" is just designed to make someone think, oh man, this person is correct about me; I suppose they aren't so bad after all.

Vote: Eevee
Except I was saying it all yesterday too?
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1007 on: October 24, 2012, 06:13:00 pm »

It's ultra-frustrating to have both your town reads heavily suspecting and even voting for you. We see this game completely different.. I usually see eye to eye with Galzria so well, I'm left to think our disagreements here are because Galzria is scum. But, maybe I'm the one who is clueless.

This really really reads as a hardcore form of buddying to get people reading you as scum to back off.  "You think I'm scum, but I was sooo suuure you were town!" is just designed to make someone think, oh man, this person is correct about me; I suppose they aren't so bad after all.

Vote: Eevee
Except I was saying it all yesterday too?
What were you saying all yesterday?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1008 on: October 24, 2012, 06:19:15 pm »

invisiyuma

will post more in a bit, but FYI:

I will be "invisiyuma" for 19 hours everyday weekday. There is nothing I can do about that. I have a 5 hour posting window from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. Mountain Daylight time. Any other time I am 1. sleeping; 2. at work; 3. at rotations. I am no longer one of the lucky ones who can post at work. I posted this in the VLA thread way before this game started and have explained my situation in this game as well. But it seems I need to do so again.

So before you call me "invisiyuma", go back and check my posts during my available times. I think you will find that I am not invisible then.

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1009 on: October 24, 2012, 06:37:52 pm »

Going back and looking at some of Robz's reads. Certainly these aren't guaranteed to be correct just because he was town. Obviously Voltgloss's (town) read on Robz was wrong. But I do think it is worth looking at and potentially resurrecting.

Quote
I have said a BUNCH of times that ashersky is SUPER scummy. He is playing to me like the guy who got his first scum role. He is trying to direct the lynch more than usual, and is lurking a little less than usual. He isn't yet up to "level 2" scum play, where you just lurk until called out, or "level 3" scum play, where you neither lurk nor make bad arguments to achieve your desired lynch. He's me from M-II.

Quote
But this damned deadline, and the fact that so many people aren't here. Although now it's clear they were here, just hiding and making it look like Grujah vs. me were the only options. (I'm looking at Voltgloss here.)

If I don't make it, I'm fairly convinced Grujah is town, and Eevee. And now that I just went through it, I think Jo's reaction to pressure is exactly what mine was, and I know I'm town, so fine, he looks better.

Cuzz really wasn't letting me get away with my claim. He should be punished for that.

Scum: Galzria, ashersky, maybe Voltgloss, maybe Frisk, maybe Cuzz

Quote
Galzria got on me early, and oops! Has to be me or Grujah now, sorry, can't change, blah blah.  So too Frisk and Volt, super suspicious in my view. So no, I didn't think I would actually get lynched. When it became clear to me that everyone was going to vote for me or Grujah, and when it became clear to even me that Grujah looked pretty townish,

Quote
In case I die at night--and I will--please look for scum on my wagon. The people on my wagon are too smart to actually want to kill me, unless they are scum. I highly suspect Galzria.

These quotes are from about vote count 13, which is where I started my analysis of Robz's reads. From these quotes it appears that he was pretty suspicious of Galzria, ashersky, Voltgloss (dead town), and to an extent Cuzz and Frisk.

On the other hand he had a pretty big townie read from eevee, jot and grujah.

Today I am going to try to do a specific reread on both Galz and ashersky and see if Robz's suspicion of them is justified.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1010 on: October 24, 2012, 06:40:53 pm »

It's ultra-frustrating to have both your town reads heavily suspecting and even voting for you. We see this game completely different.. I usually see eye to eye with Galzria so well, I'm left to think our disagreements here are because Galzria is scum. But, maybe I'm the one who is clueless.

This really really reads as a hardcore form of buddying to get people reading you as scum to back off.  "You think I'm scum, but I was sooo suuure you were town!" is just designed to make someone think, oh man, this person is correct about me; I suppose they aren't so bad after all.

Vote: Eevee
Except I was saying it all yesterday too?
What were you saying all yesterday?
Yeah that was unclear. What I meant to say was that my town reads on them preceded them suspecting me.

I forgot I all but promised Robz we'd go after ashersky today.

Vote: ashersky, I too should reread both ashersky and Galzria. Fwiw, I think yuma is contributing more than his fair share.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1011 on: October 24, 2012, 06:50:40 pm »

Grujah, what would you say if we said we're holding you to your bargain with Robz, and we want to lynch you today?

I consider that Robz broke that deal off and that I am not obliged to go by it.
If town's consensus says that I am wrong and that I still need to keep my part, as town has less subjective view on the issue, I will take that judgement and vote myself as promised.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1012 on: October 24, 2012, 06:57:02 pm »

Going back and looking at some of Robz's reads. Certainly these aren't guaranteed to be correct just because he was town. Obviously Voltgloss's (town) read on Robz was wrong. But I do think it is worth looking at and potentially resurrecting.

Quote
I have said a BUNCH of times that ashersky is SUPER scummy. He is playing to me like the guy who got his first scum role. He is trying to direct the lynch more than usual, and is lurking a little less than usual. He isn't yet up to "level 2" scum play, where you just lurk until called out, or "level 3" scum play, where you neither lurk nor make bad arguments to achieve your desired lynch. He's me from M-II.

Quote
But this damned deadline, and the fact that so many people aren't here. Although now it's clear they were here, just hiding and making it look like Grujah vs. me were the only options. (I'm looking at Voltgloss here.)

If I don't make it, I'm fairly convinced Grujah is town, and Eevee. And now that I just went through it, I think Jo's reaction to pressure is exactly what mine was, and I know I'm town, so fine, he looks better.

Cuzz really wasn't letting me get away with my claim. He should be punished for that.

Scum: Galzria, ashersky, maybe Voltgloss, maybe Frisk, maybe Cuzz

Quote
Galzria got on me early, and oops! Has to be me or Grujah now, sorry, can't change, blah blah.  So too Frisk and Volt, super suspicious in my view. So no, I didn't think I would actually get lynched. When it became clear to me that everyone was going to vote for me or Grujah, and when it became clear to even me that Grujah looked pretty townish,

Quote
In case I die at night--and I will--please look for scum on my wagon. The people on my wagon are too smart to actually want to kill me, unless they are scum. I highly suspect Galzria.

These quotes are from about vote count 13, which is where I started my analysis of Robz's reads. From these quotes it appears that he was pretty suspicious of Galzria, ashersky, Voltgloss (dead town), and to an extent Cuzz and Frisk.

On the other hand he had a pretty big townie read from eevee, jot and grujah.

Today I am going to try to do a specific reread on both Galz and ashersky and see if Robz's suspicion of them is justified.

Why start with Robz's reads?  He was killed in a lynch yesterday, and only had time to form the same sort of "accurate" day1 reads we all have.  I'm pretty sure that his lynch was pushed because it was convenient for the mafia, not because they were worried peopel would believe his reads. 

Now if you want to go back and analyze some of Voltgloss's reads, then I'll buy that they could be a bit more accurate.  Scum would be more worried about a player who is making correct reads and would likely factor this into their NK.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1013 on: October 24, 2012, 07:01:52 pm »

Reading Robz's reads is smart because he has good instincts and is confirmed town now.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1014 on: October 24, 2012, 07:09:20 pm »

Reading Robz's reads is smart because he has good instincts and is confirmed town now.

MXII disagrees lol.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1015 on: October 24, 2012, 07:10:55 pm »

Reading Robz's reads is smart because he has good instincts and is confirmed town now.

MXII disagrees lol.
Everyone makes mistakes! I still like his reads more than than those of someone who could be scum. And he REALLY suspected ashersky and I actually just now realize he made the same argument against Galzria that I'm making.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1016 on: October 24, 2012, 07:27:04 pm »

ashersky starts out the day kinda lurky and has an early vote for shraeye, but his first major vote was on Robz for his involvement in the Voltgloss chicken conspiracy theory.

Quote
So then Robz comes in on the Volt plot side.

The discussion that follows is the likelihood/ability for scum to have planned it out.  I think it's consensus that everyone who's played with Volt before could have expected volt to take the lead he did.

Robz comes back, ignoring that portion of the conversation, and again makes strong statements of suspicion against Volt.  Note: what I think is scummy about that (post 452 for reference) is that he continues to try and make it seem like it is someone else's idea, but I think by that point, it's been discussed enough that its disingenuous to do that.

A few posts later, he says he assumes Volt got chickened intentionally.  volt gives us his reads, with Robz at the top of his list, Robz does his wink wink post.

I think that is the whole of the Volt plot thread.  My take is that while Volt could have planned all this, I don't think it's the most likely scenario.  I do think looking at how all that discussion about it played out is very useful though, and I think Robz looks worst there.  Pushing the a volt suspicion, trying to look like he's sheeping something that's stronger than it really is, his jokey brush off of volt's suspicion...all together gives me a strong scum vibe.  Enough for a vote: Robz.

Shortly after is one of ashersky's oddest moments and one that Robz picked up heavily on was his calling out eevee for being hedgy.

Quote
Not sure the answer to your question, but I wasn't going after it so much as pointing out it sounded hedgy.

to which Robz responded:
Quote
Ashersky is always a shady character, but I think he's much shadier in this game than usual. He wasn't criticizing Eevee's hedginess, just pointing it out? What's the point of that? He's finger-pointing, and when he's called out on it, he says he didn't mean anything by it. Quite scummy behavior.

This conversation continues for a couple of posts with Robz having the last word:

Quote
But it doesn't make much sense to point out hedginess if you aren't actually going to argue that it's scummy. Pointing it out for the sake of pointing it out is scummy, because it's as if you're just throwing stuff out there to see what sticks.

to which ash never responds to or again tries to defend.

Instead Ash adds a bit to his case on Robz:

Quote
I wanted to point out two more nuggets for the Robz case--lost in all of this was Robz reply #368, which raised some concern at the time (this was Robz "completely agreeing" with everything Insom said), which I think is indicative of some of Robz odd/scummy play this game.  It's also a good example of many of Robz's fluff posts that inflate his "non-lurker" post count.

I would also point out Robz #381, in which he states his firm belief that scum want to get on town wagons early, for strategic sake.  And then I'd note he is second on my wagon after Insom voted me at 4:21 a.m. (my time) for "lurkiness" even when I wasn't even the low post count at the time.

So, in short, I'm good with my Robz vote still.

he adds some commentary about jot
Quote
Joth is at 4 votes, his self-vote sounds like frustration?  Giving up?  I don't know.

I'm tempted to vote for Eevee for his Grujah vote, trying to derail the joth wagon without a reason (given in that post).  But then I'd be doing the same thing.

I could vote Joth if needed, and he'd be at L-2.  I think enough of us are around to unvote if we think something fishy is going on.

Joth, anything more to say?  Care to unvote yourself?

and then very shortly after votes jot for his self vote after being convinced by Robz... who he has a scum read on? But his vote there doesn't last very long as he changes his vote to Robz with his last post of the day.

Quote
vote: Robz

I studied the wagons again, and my original and strongest scum read matches up with others I think are towny (Grujah, Galz), and I still trust that read the best.

We can't no lynch today.  It's night here and deadline is 6 am my time.  I am good with this vote, have been all day.

At this point he was the 5th vote on Robz. Previous voters were Galz, Voltgloss, jot and Grujah. But all eventually left the robz wagon for various reasons before the end of day and before rejoining it.


I think my main issue with him is his "strong" scum read on Robz when I think--and Robz argued--that it was based on flimsy evidence. It does seem rather forced. His initial vote is based off the voltgloss conspiracy theory, which never held much water for me. He backs it up with "robz completely agreed with insomniac" which was odd, but not necessarily scummy and that Robz did what said scum would do in trying to join a wagon early.


In addition I looked at his post totals. According to the print screen ash has 38 posts; I split them into categories--obviously there is some amount of objectivity to that, but I think the results were interesting anyways.

asks someone a simple question: 3
provides unique analysis: 5
quick response or pat of an ongoing conversation: 14
pregame/RVS/fluff: 8
theory talk: 8

So nearly half of his posts are fluff or theory talk. There is some unique analysis, but not a lot. He has quite a few quick responses and actually participates in more back and forth conversations than he gives himself credit for.

I could easily vote for ash, but want to look at Galz and a few others first. Actually, I will vote: ashersky now. If I think Galz or someone else is scummier, I can change it.

PPE: beat you to it eevee. Shraeye I do think going back and looking at Volt's reads is a good idea. But I started with Robz because volt's main read was Robz (town) so I know that volt was wrong whereas I am not sure if Robz is or not.
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Archetype

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1017 on: October 24, 2012, 07:29:43 pm »

Vote: Captain_Frisk

Here's why:

He was on both the Grujah and Robz wagon. That should be scummy enough, but no, there's more.

Does anyone know what the current vote count is?
Probably not a big deal, but he could be looking for where he can jump on a bandwagon, and hopefully fuel it to a lynch.

Vote: Archetype Lurking and scummy position on wagon.
That's ironic. I'm in the same position as you were on the Grujah wagon.
I found it pretty hilarious when he voted for me for the reasons he did. At the time, he didn't post that often by all means, and he called my postion on the jo wagon 'scummy' even though that was the position he was in on the Grujah wagon.

The fact that he still hasn't responded to my comment makes him even more scummy.

Robz, fwiw I will hammer you just before the deadline if nolynch is the alternative. I don't like archetype lynch.

Whats your issue with Archetype lynch?
Continues to press a lynch on me. I have a feeling it's because I was one of the few to attack him.

And to answer C_F's question: I don't think Robz likes lynching Town as much as you do.

There's plenty of more instances where he has acted scummy and anyone who tried to cross him was inflicted in some way (Volt being chickenized).

I hope I'm not the only one who has noticed Captian_Frisk's general anti-town play.

Please note: I don't often make big posts, but when I do, they are serious.

*On a much, much lighter note: I finally figured out what your profile is C_F and how it's not a hat.

Also, looks like I was right on Robz not being the right lynch. Now we're down 2 (!) power roles!
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1018 on: October 24, 2012, 07:38:54 pm »

Not convinced by above case.
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Archetype

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1019 on: October 24, 2012, 07:41:12 pm »

Not convinced by above case.
Scum usually isn't when they've been caught.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1020 on: October 24, 2012, 07:48:55 pm »

I see scum trying to get in front of scummy day 1 lurking by trying to start a bs case.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1021 on: October 24, 2012, 07:49:23 pm »

See lekkit in m6 day 2 as an example.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1022 on: October 24, 2012, 07:52:02 pm »

Vote Count 2.1

Eevee (2): Grujah, shraeye
Grujah (1): Insomniac
ashersky (2): Eevee, yuma
Captain_Frisk (1): Archetype
Not voting (5): Galzria, ashersky, jotheonah, Cuzz, Captain_Frisk

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Currently Cursed: Insomniac

Curse deadline: Friday Oct 26, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)
Lynch deadline: Tuesday Oct 30, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)
« Last Edit: October 25, 2012, 12:42:07 am by Jorbles »
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1023 on: October 24, 2012, 07:54:12 pm »

See lekkit in m6 day 2 as an example.

did you mean theorel again? lekkit wasn't in game 6
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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1024 on: October 24, 2012, 07:57:15 pm »

Vote Count 2.1

Eevee (2): Grujah, shraeye
Grujah (1): Insomniac
ashersky (2): Eevee, yuma
Captain_Frisk (1): Archetype
Not voting (5): Galzria, ashersky, Archetype, jotheonah, Cuzz

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Currently Cursed: Insomniac

Curse deadline: Friday Oct 26, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)
Lynch deadline: Tuesday Oct 30, Noon PDT (3 pm forum time)


Slight error Jorbles. I'm voting for Frisk, not the other way around.
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