Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 2 [All]

Author Topic: Shelters exacerbate 5/2  (Read 23795 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

philosophyguy

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 575
  • Respect: +299
    • View Profile
Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« on: September 02, 2012, 09:42:47 am »
+1

Last night I was playing some Dark Age heavy games IRL and discovered that Shelters can exacerbate the impact of a 5/2 split.

Normally, getting a 5 is already a strong opening, especially with something like Witch on the board. Usually, you don't want to buy anything with your $2. But with Shelters, you can buy an Estate to trash your Hovel and gain a 1vp lead without slowing your deck! In games with heavy cursing, that point is often worth a lot because the game will end on piles.

Other notes: Death Cart's gain Ruins penalty is not as bad as I feared, although they severely slow your second shuffle if you open with the Cart. Wandering Minstrel has to be one of the top, if not the top, $4 villages: deck filtering, setting up your action chain, and replacing itself in hand. Rogue can really swing if you want the attack but something else ends up in the Trash first (like Rats!).
Logged

brokoli

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1119
  • Respect: +786
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2012, 10:23:11 am »
+2

I'm unconvinced.
I think it's better to keep your hovel to trash it later (when you buy your first province) and thus not be cluttered by an estate. Often the hovel will be trashed sooner or later anyway.
Logged

AJD

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3256
  • Shuffle iT Username: AJD
  • Respect: +4348
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2012, 10:32:14 am »
0

I'm unconvinced.
I think it's better to keep your hovel to trash it later (when you buy your first province) and thus not be cluttered by an estate. Often the hovel will be trashed sooner or later anyway.

What's the difference between being cluttered by a Hovel and being cluttered by an Estate? (Well, okay, you may want something to Remake into a Hamlet, or add 1 to a Forge, or something, or be immune to opponents' Jester or Fortune Teller or Rabble, or.... But this can cut both ways, depending on what 's in the kingdom.)
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
  • Respect: +9184
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2012, 10:52:02 am »
+2

If you wait to trash Hovel through a Province buy, you won't have an extra Estate hanging around when you start greening.
Logged

Dulkal

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Respect: +11
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2012, 11:12:50 am »
0

Normally, getting a 5 is already a strong opening, especially with something like Witch on the board. Usually, you don't want to buy anything with your $2. But with Shelters, you can buy an Estate to trash your Hovel and gain a 1vp lead without slowing your deck! In games with heavy cursing, that point is often worth a lot because the game will end on piles.

In a game with witch on the table, I doubt one point is going to make that much of a difference. Whether or not a reasonable 2-coster is available has much more of an impact.
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
  • Respect: +2464
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2012, 12:26:53 pm »
+1

From the dozen or so games I have played with Shelters, I can safely say the optimal strategy is to not buy an estate when Hovel is in the hand. In almost every game, if not every game, the Hovel ended up being trashed when I bought either a Province or Duchy at some point.

Actually, though, I think that Shelters favor a 4/3 split more. The reason being is that you can pick up an action at $3 and $4 and they are less likely to collide. thanks to Necropolis.
Logged

philosophyguy

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 575
  • Respect: +299
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2012, 12:40:22 pm »
0

From the dozen or so games I have played with Shelters, I can safely say the optimal strategy is to not buy an estate when Hovel is in the hand. In almost every game, if not every game, the Hovel ended up being trashed when I bought either a Province or Duchy at some point.

Ok, but what's the advantage of waiting to trash the hovel? Both Hovel and Estate are dead cards in hand. Estate gives 1vp, Hovel doesn't. Estate can be drawn by Scout (yay Scout!), Hovel can't. The only card I can think of where the Estate/Hovel difference matters during the game is Jester, but that's a pretty niche situation.
Logged

Copernicus

  • Baron
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 50
  • Respect: +31
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2012, 01:22:03 pm »
0

From the dozen or so games I have played with Shelters, I can safely say the optimal strategy is to not buy an estate when Hovel is in the hand. In almost every game, if not every game, the Hovel ended up being trashed when I bought either a Province or Duchy at some point.

Ok, but what's the advantage of waiting to trash the hovel? Both Hovel and Estate are dead cards in hand. Estate gives 1vp, Hovel doesn't. Estate can be drawn by Scout (yay Scout!), Hovel can't. The only card I can think of where the Estate/Hovel difference matters during the game is Jester, but that's a pretty niche situation.

Estate vs Hovel matters a great deal when purchasing a Province or Duchy.
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
  • Respect: +2464
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2012, 01:30:38 pm »
0

From the dozen or so games I have played with Shelters, I can safely say the optimal strategy is to not buy an estate when Hovel is in the hand. In almost every game, if not every game, the Hovel ended up being trashed when I bought either a Province or Duchy at some point.

Ok, but what's the advantage of waiting to trash the hovel? Both Hovel and Estate are dead cards in hand. Estate gives 1vp, Hovel doesn't. Estate can be drawn by Scout (yay Scout!), Hovel can't. The only card I can think of where the Estate/Hovel difference matters during the game is Jester, but that's a pretty niche situation.
'

If you buy an estate, it stays a dead card. However, if you can trash it on an early Province buy, you essentially got a card out of your deck. If you buy estate, that estate will come up in every reshuffle and be a dead card.
Logged

philosophyguy

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 575
  • Respect: +299
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2012, 02:06:48 pm »
0

I am not following your deck size math at all. I open 5/2, buy a 5. I have 11 cards in my deck. I buy Estate and trash Hovel; still 11.

Later in the game, I have X cards. I buy Province, trash Hovel. Deck size is still X.

Please explain how trashing Hovel with Province gets a dead card out of your deck, while trashing with Estate does not.
Logged

Lashof

  • Steward
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27
  • Respect: +22
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2012, 02:20:11 pm »
0

Because Estate is also considered a dead card.  So if you're trashing a Hovel by buying an estate, you're just replacing one dead card with another (thereby not decreasing the number of dead cards).

If you replace it with a Province, the province is not a dead card (It is winning you the game), so you are replacing a dead card with a non-dead one.
Logged

ehunt

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1516
  • Shuffle iT Username: ehunt
  • Respect: +1837
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2012, 02:50:12 pm »
+1

Here's a simple comparison: if you expect to trash the hovel around turn 10, then unless you'd be buying an estate with 2 money and nothing better to buy around turn 10, you shouldn't be trashing the hovel for an estate on turn 2.

That is: taking away your ability to trash the hovel on turn 10 in order to gain a point is a lot like buying an estate on turn 10 in order to gain a point.

I think the usual answer is that you shouldn't do this on a 5/2.
Logged

ehunt

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1516
  • Shuffle iT Username: ehunt
  • Respect: +1837
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2012, 03:32:01 pm »
+6

One more way to write the same thing:

Sarah and Laura play a game. On turn 2, Sarah replaces a hovel with an estate. Laura declines to do this, keeping the hovel and buying nothing.

Now Sarah's and Laura's decks are identical (let's say no card on the board references estates). We can imagine their decks and draws stay identical hand for hand (except Laura draws her hovel whenever Sarah draws her estate). At some point, probably around turn ten on average, Sarah buys a green card with her estate in hand. Nothing happens. Laura buys a green card with her hovel in hand; she trashes it. Now their decks are different. Sarah's got an estate in her deck that Laura doesn't happen.

So the only question is: is the turn on which you expect to trash the hovel in the natural course of buying green cards late enough that you'd be willing to take a free estate?

Since estate buys are quite bad and only very rarely game-deciding, I expect the answer to the bolded question is usually no. Therefore you should not replace the hovel on turn 2 but should replace it at the first natural opportunity instead. (There may be something to be said for greening slightly earlier due to the hovel, and of course the presence of alternate green cards or cards like Baron throws these calculations out the window.)
Logged

philosophyguy

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 575
  • Respect: +299
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2012, 06:01:10 pm »
0

So the only question is: is the turn on which you expect to trash the hovel in the natural course of buying green cards late enough that you'd be willing to take a free estate?

This is absolutely the wrong question because it begs the question about Estate buying fitting into the normal rules of deck building. Pre-Dark Ages, you don't want to buy Estates too early because then your deck chokes on green cards; you have lots of shuffles of dead cards with very little benefit.

Hovel changes this dynamic. With Hovel in hand, buying an Estate does not increase the number of dead cards in your deck.

The right question is instead: does the benefit of buying an Estate on turn X outweigh the cost of buying an Estate on turn X?

The answer to that question is: if X is late in the game, when we want any green card we can afford, then the benefit of buying an Estate obviously outweighs the cost. This is roughly the same calculation pre- and post-Dark Ages. (I say roughly because the math changes slightly since Hovel can be trashed, but I haven't run simulations to see if the difference is large enough to warrant a change in the Big Money buy rules.)

But, if X is earlier in the game, we need to examine the issue more closely. The pros of buying an Estate are: getting an extra VP. Small bonus, but a bonus. The cons of buying an Estate used to be having an extra dead card in hand, but now we're trashing Hovel, which was also a dead card, so that con no longer applies. This was the main reason we didn't want to buy an Estate in 2p when there were still 5 Provinces left, but now we're not having the effect of clogging our deck more.

The other con of buying an Estate is that buying an Estate costs a Buy. On turn 2, that might matter if the board has a useful $2 card. But if it doesn't, then that con doesn't outweigh the benefit of buying the Estate.
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
  • Respect: +9184
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2012, 06:09:53 pm »
+2

So the only question is: is the turn on which you expect to trash the hovel in the natural course of buying green cards late enough that you'd be willing to take a free estate?

This is absolutely the wrong question because it begs the question about Estate buying fitting into the normal rules of deck building. Pre-Dark Ages, you don't want to buy Estates too early because then your deck chokes on green cards; you have lots of shuffles of dead cards with very little benefit.

Hovel changes this dynamic. With Hovel in hand, buying an Estate does not increase the number of dead cards in your deck.

The right question is instead: does the benefit of buying an Estate on turn X outweigh the cost of buying an Estate on turn X?

The answer to that question is: if X is late in the game, when we want any green card we can afford, then the benefit of buying an Estate obviously outweighs the cost. This is roughly the same calculation pre- and post-Dark Ages. (I say roughly because the math changes slightly since Hovel can be trashed, but I haven't run simulations to see if the difference is large enough to warrant a change in the Big Money buy rules.)

But, if X is earlier in the game, we need to examine the issue more closely. The pros of buying an Estate are: getting an extra VP. Small bonus, but a bonus. The cons of buying an Estate used to be having an extra dead card in hand, but now we're trashing Hovel, which was also a dead card, so that con no longer applies. This was the main reason we didn't want to buy an Estate in 2p when there were still 5 Provinces left, but now we're not having the effect of clogging our deck more.

The other con of buying an Estate is that buying an Estate costs a Buy. On turn 2, that might matter if the board has a useful $2 card. But if it doesn't, then that con doesn't outweigh the benefit of buying the Estate.

You are ignoring that buying an early Estate just to trash the Hovel also robs you of the benefit you would get by trashing the Hovel later, namely the REMOVAL of that dead card entirely, via Hovel's mechanic.  If you buy an Estate to replace the Hovel, all you get is that 1VP.  You are giving up Hovel's power for a single VP.  If you hold it until a regular Province purchase, the Hovel disappears entirely and your deck has one less dead card (namely, the Estate you would still have if you had bought it at the start).

ehunt's question is absolutely the right question to ask, and his Sarah/Laura example is excellent.  Not sure how much clearer it can be made.
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
  • Respect: +2464
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2012, 06:38:14 pm »
+1

So the only question is: is the turn on which you expect to trash the hovel in the natural course of buying green cards late enough that you'd be willing to take a free estate?

This is absolutely the wrong question because it begs the question about Estate buying fitting into the normal rules of deck building. Pre-Dark Ages, you don't want to buy Estates too early because then your deck chokes on green cards; you have lots of shuffles of dead cards with very little benefit.

Hovel changes this dynamic. With Hovel in hand, buying an Estate does not increase the number of dead cards in your deck.

The right question is instead: does the benefit of buying an Estate on turn X outweigh the cost of buying an Estate on turn X?

The answer to that question is: if X is late in the game, when we want any green card we can afford, then the benefit of buying an Estate obviously outweighs the cost. This is roughly the same calculation pre- and post-Dark Ages. (I say roughly because the math changes slightly since Hovel can be trashed, but I haven't run simulations to see if the difference is large enough to warrant a change in the Big Money buy rules.)

But, if X is earlier in the game, we need to examine the issue more closely. The pros of buying an Estate are: getting an extra VP. Small bonus, but a bonus. The cons of buying an Estate used to be having an extra dead card in hand, but now we're trashing Hovel, which was also a dead card, so that con no longer applies. This was the main reason we didn't want to buy an Estate in 2p when there were still 5 Provinces left, but now we're not having the effect of clogging our deck more.

The other con of buying an Estate is that buying an Estate costs a Buy. On turn 2, that might matter if the board has a useful $2 card. But if it doesn't, then that con doesn't outweigh the benefit of buying the Estate.

I think I understand your perspective, so I think I might be able to explain in a way that you can understand. Here is your logic. You state that Hovel is a dead card, so if I replace it with estate, I get another dead card, but it doesn't increase my deck size and it also gives me 1 VP which might matter in the late game.

But, here is where I feel your logic falls apart, assuming I understand your perspective correctly. The thing is that 1 VP usually is not a deciding factor. Sometimes, it is. However, look at it this way. When you start to green, the more green in your deck means less buying power. When you purchase a Province and replace your Hovel, your buying power hasn't changed at all. Now, let's say you're the player that trashed their Hovel for an Estate and 1 Province is left. On your turn, you draw 1 Estate 1 Province, 1 Gold, 1 Silver, and 1 Copper. Now, that 1 Estate might have ended up being another Silver or Gold which would have bought you a Province. So, on that turn you buy a Duchy. Now, your opponent trashed their Hovel for a Province instead of an Estate. They draw 1 Province, 1 Gold, 2 Silver and a Copper. They have just enough to buy the winning Province.

Okay, I have kind of simplified everything, but essentially what I am trying to show is that later in the game, that Estate stays a dead card whereas the player who replaced their Hovel for a Province no longer has to deal with that dead card, and that is why it makes a difference.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2012, 06:39:27 pm by Beyond Awesome »
Logged

Tombolo

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 439
  • Respect: +450
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2012, 07:29:59 pm »
+1

If you keep Hovel, you have one dead card (Hovel) until you buy a Province, and then you still have one dead card.

If you trash Hovel, you have one dead card (Estate) until you buy a Province, and then you have two dead cards, which is unlikely to be worth the 1 VP advantage from the Estate.
Logged
We’ve had a hard day at work, we’ve been looking forward to our Dominion, how can you expect us to play anything else, you ogre.

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
  • Respect: +605
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2012, 07:33:05 pm »
0

It's amazing how many people have fallen into this trap. Unless you really think the 1VP of estates is needed endgame, you want to NOT buy estate to trash hovel early on.

Logged

UltimaPenguin

  • Swindler
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 16
  • Respect: +8
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2012, 09:48:43 pm »
+4

Another way to look at it: Imagine that Estate had Hovel's reaction ability. Wouldn't you use this for your first few province buys if you could, even though you'd be losing a point? I'm pretty sure I would (barring the sort of unusual circumstances already discussed).

But since Estate doesn't have that ability, it follows that you'd rather have a Hovel instead of an Estate in that situation (since once its trashed it doesn't matter what it was). And if at turn 10, you'd prefer a Hovel over an Estate, it usually doesn't make sense to replace your Hovel with an Estate on turn 1.
Logged

Schneau

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1174
  • Shuffle iT Username: Schneau
  • Respect: +1461
    • View Profile
    • Rainwave
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2012, 10:00:26 pm »
0

I think, like all of Dominion, it depends on the kingdom. In a fast BM mirror, it might be worth it to take the point to break ties. In most engines, it probably won't be worth it, since you can hopefully buy your first Province without slowing down your deck as much. But, it all depends.
Logged

Schneau

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1174
  • Shuffle iT Username: Schneau
  • Respect: +1461
    • View Profile
    • Rainwave
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2012, 10:02:39 pm »
+2

Also, I think the right question is: In a non-Shelters game, when you buy your first Province, would you trash an Estate from your hand if you magically could. Since we're used to Estates games, this phrases the question that way - it's not as much about taking a free Estate as freely trashing an Estate (or not).
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
  • Respect: +2464
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2012, 11:10:55 pm »
0

Also, I think the right question is: In a non-Shelters game, when you buy your first Province, would you trash an Estate from your hand if you magically could. Since we're used to Estates games, this phrases the question that way - it's not as much about taking a free Estate as freely trashing an Estate (or not).

90% of the time or so, I would probably do this.
Logged

AJD

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3256
  • Shuffle iT Username: AJD
  • Respect: +4348
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2012, 11:19:07 pm »
+4

Also, I think the right question is: In a non-Shelters game, when you buy your first Province, would you trash an Estate from your hand if you magically could. Since we're used to Estates games, this phrases the question that way - it's not as much about taking a free Estate as freely trashing an Estate (or not).

Well, not really. You also have to figure in the probability that your Hovel is in your hand when you buy your first Province (when you would trash an Estate if you could) vs. later in endgame (when you would keep an Estate).
Logged

HiveMindEmulator

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2222
  • Respect: +2117
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2012, 12:44:44 am »
+2

You usually don't notice since all your Estates are the same, but in a non-engine game, how likely is it that you'll have your Hovel on a turn that you buy a Province? Not that likely, since having the Hovel in hand means having fewer than average treasures, and you only have one Hovel in your whole deck. So in some situations, it's not guaranteed that you'll get a good chance to trash your Hovel, and in these same situations, 1 point can easily be the difference in the game.

Now the question is how often does it actually matter? I'd say probably not that much. If you're going to be able to trash the card anyway, it doesn't matter at all, and if you don't end up in a situation where the 1 point matters or 1 card less in your deck for the last shuffle or 2, this decision is not going to make or break your game. But I'd bet that among the situations where it does make a difference that buying the Estate comes out on top more often.
Logged

Powerman

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 766
  • Respect: +604
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2012, 12:48:21 am »
+2

I'd say it's MUCH better to now open with Great Hall on a 3 with a Hovel, but estate still seems really bad imo.
Logged
A man on a mission.

microman

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 164
  • Stop "Making Fun" of me!
  • Respect: +67
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2012, 12:56:46 am »
0

I'd say it's MUCH better to now open with Great Hall on a 3 with a Hovel, but estate still seems really bad imo.
Yeah, i totally agree, and furthermore there should never be an excuse to replace one dead card with another, unless it is something that is really going to help you(like province).
Logged

UltimaPenguin

  • Swindler
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 16
  • Respect: +8
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2012, 01:08:59 am »
0

I think the potential problem of not having hovel in hand on your later vp-buying turns is a good point.

This would be an interesting thing for some simulations...
Logged

AJD

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3256
  • Shuffle iT Username: AJD
  • Respect: +4348
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2012, 01:23:38 am »
0

Now the question is how often does it actually matter? I'd say probably not that much. If you're going to be able to trash the card anyway, it doesn't matter at all

Well, if you're going to be trashing it with something like Upgrade, for instance—or any trash-for-benefit or trash-to-gain where the result depends on the cost of the trashed card—it might make a difference.
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
  • Respect: +2464
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2012, 01:37:14 am »
+1

I think the potential problem of not having hovel in hand on your later vp-buying turns is a good point.

This would be an interesting thing for some simulations...

I can say from playing a couple dozen or so games with Shelters that having Hovel in your hand on a VP-buying turn comes up quite a bit. Maybe, I just got lucky with my shuffles, but it does seem to be a rather common occurrence.
Logged

Asklepios

  • Duke
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 394
  • Respect: +116
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #29 on: September 03, 2012, 04:34:51 am »
0

Also, I think the right question is: In a non-Shelters game, when you buy your first Province, would you trash an Estate from your hand if you magically could. Since we're used to Estates games, this phrases the question that way - it's not as much about taking a free Estate as freely trashing an Estate (or not).

I agree with this.

There's often a psychology amongst non-beginner non-expert players that estates are universally bad and should always be trashed when you can.

But as the end of the game approaches, a single VP might be the difference between victory and loss, for example in a 4:4 province split.

In my opinion, you generally SHOULD be trashing that Hovel for an Estate if you have $2 and nothing better to spend it on. Essentially, its 1VP gained for no slowdown of the deck now, versus a one-card deck trimming that comes in the mid to late game. In the mid to late game, the effect of trashing is far less beneficial than in the early game.
Logged

Dulkal

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Respect: +11
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2012, 05:02:08 am »
0

In my opinion, you generally SHOULD be trashing that Hovel for an Estate if you have $2 and nothing better to spend it on. Essentially, its 1VP gained for no slowdown of the deck now, versus a one-card deck trimming that comes in the mid to late game. In the mid to late game, the effect of trashing is far less beneficial than in the early game.
In a game that is likely to be decided on the province split, I agree with you.

In heavy cursing games or alt-VP games however, that 1 point is much less likely to make the final difference.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
  • Respect: +605
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #31 on: September 03, 2012, 05:34:36 am »
+1

....nope, I still wouldn't buy the estate.

Keep in mind the Province question is not the only relevant one here. You can also, say buy a duchy earlier than you would have if it'll trash your hovel.

The question is "is hovel or estate a better card for me to have at the beginning of the game", not any fancy questions about when you would start greening.

There's often a tendency on F.DS to try to make slightly mitigating statements to generally true statements about dominion. I think this is because most serious dominion players tend to be geeky pedants (me included). You generally don't want estates.

In reality it's not whether or not it will be decided on the province split (ESPECIALLY if it's 4-3 vs 5-2 because you'd still be tied). It's about how small/long of a window there is from when the first VP will normally/conditionally be bought, to when the game will end (whether by provinces/colonies or 3pile).

The point really is that Hovel doesn't in the slightest exacerbate 5-2.

Finally, I'd remind people that Shelters are thematically supposed to be better than estates, and
Logged

ehunt

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1516
  • Shuffle iT Username: ehunt
  • Respect: +1837
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #32 on: September 03, 2012, 10:40:56 am »
0

Also, I think the right question is: In a non-Shelters game, when you buy your first Province, would you trash an Estate from your hand if you magically could. Since we're used to Estates games, this phrases the question that way - it's not as much about taking a free Estate as freely trashing an Estate (or not).

Well, not really. You also have to figure in the probability that your Hovel is in your hand when you buy your first Province (when you would trash an Estate if you could) vs. later in endgame (when you would keep an Estate).

Yeah, this is why I said "turn ten" in my examples. That was a (poorly thought-out) estimate of "the expected value of the turn on which you first are able to buy a province and have a hovel in hand." It's actually probably too early; eleven or twelve is maybe better.

I was treating "you can buy a province" with "you have a hovel in hand" as independent events when "computing" this expected value; they're not: if your hand starts life with a hovel in it, it's a hand that's less likely to be able to buy a province (and actually, in an engine deck the dependence may be the other way; if you're drawing your deck half the time, the turns on which you have a hovel in hand during the buy-phase are more likely to coincide with the turns in which you can buy a province).
Logged

ehunt

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1516
  • Shuffle iT Username: ehunt
  • Respect: +1837
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2012, 10:44:34 am »
0

tl;dr

VERDICT: buying an estate with hovel in hand early in the game when you have nothing better to buy is a weak move that is occasionally correct, is usually incorrect, but very rarely matters either way, much like buying an estate with an extra buy late, but not very late, in the game.
Logged

Dulkal

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Respect: +11
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2012, 01:47:46 pm »
+1

tl;dr

VERDICT: buying an estate with hovel in hand early in the game when you have nothing better to buy is a weak move that is occasionally correct, is usually incorrect, but very rarely matters either way, much like buying an estate with an extra buy late, but not very late, in the game.

</thread>
Logged

HiveMindEmulator

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2222
  • Respect: +2117
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2012, 05:31:07 pm »
0

tl;dr

VERDICT: buying an estate with hovel in hand early in the game when you have nothing better to buy is a weak move that is occasionally correct, is usually incorrect, but very rarely matters either way, much like buying an estate with an extra buy late, but not very late, in the game.

I doubt is "usually incorrect". Just because it's not often beneficial doesn't mean it's usually incorrect.
I would say it usually doesn't matter. It's occasionally correct. And it's rarely incorrect.
 
Cases when Estate > Hovel:
 - trash for benefit (fairly common in Dark Ages games)
 - things that benefit from having more VP cards in your deck (pretty rare)
 - close BM games where 1 point matters (fairly rare, but not exceedingly rare in games without trashing)

Cases when Hovel > Estate:
 - games where you can't trash the Estate at all and are able to trash the Hovel soon enough that having one less card in your deck makes a difference (pretty rare)

In order for buying the Estate to acutally hurt you, you should be unable to trash the Estate. Right there you probably have 60% of games where it can't be harmful to buy the Estate (maybe not beneficial, but at least not harmful). Then, in these non-trashing games, how early do you really get to trash Hovel? Since you couldn't trash into an engine, it's not that likely that you're able to get Hovel in your first VP-buying hand. It's more likely you trash it with like 2 shuffles left at the most. So you have 1 less card in a deck of size ~25 (since you couldn't trash) for 2 shuffles. Odds that that benefits you? Pretty slim. Maybe slightly less slim than the odds of the 1 point making the difference.

So bullet 3 of Estate>Hovel is a little less common than Hovel>Estate. But when you throw in bullet 1, I'm pretty sure buying the Estate is good more often than it is bad (not that it's likely to matter either way).
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
  • Respect: +605
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2012, 11:52:09 pm »
0

tl;dr

VERDICT: buying an estate with hovel in hand early in the game when you have nothing better to buy is a weak move that is occasionally correct, is usually incorrect, but very rarely matters either way, much like buying an estate with an extra buy late, but not very late, in the game.

I doubt is "usually incorrect". Just because it's not often beneficial doesn't mean it's usually incorrect.
I would say it usually doesn't matter. It's occasionally correct. And it's rarely incorrect.
 
Cases when Estate > Hovel:
 - trash for benefit (fairly common in Dark Ages games)
 - things that benefit from having more VP cards in your deck (pretty rare)
 - close BM games where 1 point matters (fairly rare, but not exceedingly rare in games without trashing)

Cases when Hovel > Estate:
 - games where you can't trash the Estate at all and are able to trash the Hovel soon enough that having one less card in your deck makes a difference (pretty rare)

In order for buying the Estate to acutally hurt you, you should be unable to trash the Estate. Right there you probably have 60% of games where it can't be harmful to buy the Estate (maybe not beneficial, but at least not harmful). Then, in these non-trashing games, how early do you really get to trash Hovel? Since you couldn't trash into an engine, it's not that likely that you're able to get Hovel in your first VP-buying hand. It's more likely you trash it with like 2 shuffles left at the most. So you have 1 less card in a deck of size ~25 (since you couldn't trash) for 2 shuffles. Odds that that benefits you? Pretty slim. Maybe slightly less slim than the odds of the 1 point making the difference.

So bullet 3 of Estate>Hovel is a little less common than Hovel>Estate. But when you throw in bullet 1, I'm pretty sure buying the Estate is good more often than it is bad (not that it's likely to matter either way).

Inferior with Nobles, Great Hall, Island, Tunnel, Farmland on board than. AKA a rather high percentage.
Logged

HiveMindEmulator

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2222
  • Respect: +2117
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #37 on: September 04, 2012, 12:52:51 am »
0

^Nobles with no trashing is probably a bad idea. With trashing, Estate vs Hovel doesn't really matter. Great Hall you pretty rarely ever want to buy early in no-trash games as well. Island with no Estates in you deck, what's the point? With Farmland, Hovel is better if you want to trash it into a 3, otherwise you're not likely to be able to buy Farmland, and have something you want to trash besides the Hovel along with the Hovel in hand.

Tunnel. Yes. You don't want to buy Estate in a Tunnel game.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
  • Respect: +605
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #38 on: September 04, 2012, 12:55:56 am »
0

Nobles with no trashing is not probably a bad idea...
Logged

brokoli

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1119
  • Respect: +786
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #39 on: September 04, 2012, 02:55:48 am »
+1

Island with no Estates in you deck, what's the point?

With no trashing, this is probably a good idea (buy Island, trash hovel and set aside the island later with an overgrown estate, necropolis or even copper, it's not bad).
Even with trashing, Island is so good...
Logged

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4786
  • Respect: +3406
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #40 on: September 04, 2012, 03:27:10 am »
+4

What I found with Shelters is that often they're a nice little upgrade over your Estates, but they're not spectacular.

In the end the Shelters don't really make that much of a difference.
If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway. It's not like: Wow, I have Shelters, I'm going to do something completely different!

There are some decisions, but they're so marginal that you're really talking about adding maybe 1 percent of winning chances. And in a single game, random shuffle luck is going to be more of a factor than when you're going to trash your Hovel.

I would have liked to see some other cards in their place in the box.

They're cute, just not game warping, and why would they be? Of all the "If you play with X cards from this expansion, there's an 1 in X% chance of playing with this" Colonies are obviously the most important.

Necropolis may make you think "hey, I can open double terminal now!", but you could already do that without Shelters and the risk of collision with non-drawers was still acceptable. Now, if you open double Swindler for instance, you need to have Necropolis in hand AND the two Swindlers to reap any benefits. And Swindler is worse with Shelters, since hitting an opponent's Shelter is way too good for them.

In conclusion I'm underwhelmed by Shelters. You can't expect $1 cards to work wonders, but to me it's unnecessary "cuteness" which Dark Ages has a tendency to bring into the game.

Another Alt VP card is something I would have liked more.
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

Asklepios

  • Duke
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 394
  • Respect: +116
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2012, 04:06:48 am »
0

....nope, I still wouldn't buy the estate.

Keep in mind the Province question is not the only relevant one here. You can also, say buy a duchy earlier than you would have if it'll trash your hovel.

Hadn't considered that... Yeah, I think that tips it the other way for me.

Logged

anlin_wang

  • Pearl Diver
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13
  • Respect: +5
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2012, 04:23:38 am »
0

What I found with Shelters is that often they're a nice little upgrade over your Estates, but they're not spectacular.

In the end the Shelters don't really make that much of a difference.
If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway. It's not like: Wow, I have Shelters, I'm going to do something completely different!

There are some decisions, but they're so marginal that you're really talking about adding maybe 1 percent of winning chances. And in a single game, random shuffle luck is going to be more of a factor than when you're going to trash your Hovel.

I would have liked to see some other cards in their place in the box.

They're cute, just not game warping, and why would they be? Of all the "If you play with X cards from this expansion, there's an 1 in X% chance of playing with this" Colonies are obviously the most important.

Necropolis may make you think "hey, I can open double terminal now!", but you could already do that without Shelters and the risk of collision with non-drawers was still acceptable. Now, if you open double Swindler for instance, you need to have Necropolis in hand AND the two Swindlers to reap any benefits. And Swindler is worse with Shelters, since hitting an opponent's Shelter is way too good for them.

In conclusion I'm underwhelmed by Shelters. You can't expect $1 cards to work wonders, but to me it's unnecessary "cuteness" which Dark Ages has a tendency to bring into the game.

Another Alt VP card is something I would have liked more.

This. I like this.
Logged

ftl

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2056
  • Shuffle iT Username: ftl
  • Respect: +1344
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2012, 04:27:04 am »
0

Well, they're certainly cute though! I like them.
Logged

dondon151

  • 2012 US Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2522
  • Respect: +1856
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2012, 04:36:30 am »
0

If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway.

I think it's more common for Shelters to discourage a certain strategy than to encourage one. Cards like Remodel, Salvager, Upgrade, Apprentice, etc. are much weaker in the earlygame with Shelters instead of Estates in the deck. Swindler, as pointed out, is weaker too. On the other hand, Menagerie and Fairgrounds like the starting variety...
« Last Edit: September 04, 2012, 04:38:01 am by dondon151 »
Logged

Qvist

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2400
  • Shuffle iT Username: Qvist
  • Respect: +4084
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #45 on: September 04, 2012, 06:15:10 am »
0

If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway.

I think it's more common for Shelters to discourage a certain strategy than to encourage one. Cards like Remodel, Salvager, Upgrade, Apprentice, etc. are much weaker in the earlygame with Shelters instead of Estates in the deck. Swindler, as pointed out, is weaker too. On the other hand, Menagerie and Fairgrounds like the starting variety...

Yeah, I think that's the point. Shelters don't make a real change in strategy, but discourage certain "standard strategies" like Ambassador (especially in 3+ player) or especially Hunting Party and Baron/Silk Road.

Davio

  • 2012 Dutch Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4786
  • Respect: +3406
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #46 on: September 04, 2012, 07:18:32 am »
0

If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway.

I think it's more common for Shelters to discourage a certain strategy than to encourage one. Cards like Remodel, Salvager, Upgrade, Apprentice, etc. are much weaker in the earlygame with Shelters instead of Estates in the deck. Swindler, as pointed out, is weaker too. On the other hand, Menagerie and Fairgrounds like the starting variety...

Yeah, I think that's the point. Shelters don't make a real change in strategy, but discourage certain "standard strategies" like Ambassador (especially in 3+ player) or especially Hunting Party and Baron/Silk Road.
Well, that's not necessarily a bad thing I guess, because Ambassador games are so tedious and Hunting Party games are so standard.
Logged

BSG: Cagprezimal Adama
Mage Knight: Arythea

Qvist

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2400
  • Shuffle iT Username: Qvist
  • Respect: +4084
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #47 on: September 04, 2012, 07:21:37 am »
0

If you have devised a good strategy for a certain board, chances are it would've worked without Shelters anyway.

I think it's more common for Shelters to discourage a certain strategy than to encourage one. Cards like Remodel, Salvager, Upgrade, Apprentice, etc. are much weaker in the earlygame with Shelters instead of Estates in the deck. Swindler, as pointed out, is weaker too. On the other hand, Menagerie and Fairgrounds like the starting variety...

Yeah, I think that's the point. Shelters don't make a real change in strategy, but discourage certain "standard strategies" like Ambassador (especially in 3+ player) or especially Hunting Party and Baron/Silk Road.
Well, that's not necessarily a bad thing I guess, because Ambassador games are so tedious and Hunting Party games are so standard.

Yeah, not a bad thing. You can't just go in auto mode, you have to take Shelters into account before choosing a strategy, similar like checking if Platinum/Colony is on the board.

HiveMindEmulator

  • Mountebank
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2222
  • Respect: +2117
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2012, 02:36:13 am »
0

Ok, one last conclusion for me here. There are times when buying an Estate is obviously good (TfB), and times when it's obviously bad (if you're going to want to buy other early VPs anyway). If it's hard to tell, odds are it won't make a difference at all.
Logged

jomini

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1057
  • Respect: +760
    • View Profile
Re: Shelters exacerbate 5/2
« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2012, 01:46:44 pm »
0

Another consideration is if you plan on using any scaling TfBs over the course of the game. For instance, if you are planning on using expand or forge, then getting 1 more coin of value into the deck at no space cost is not a bad deal. Even things like salvager or apprentice like having the hovel get replaced earlier by the estate.

There are also a few setups where you'd rather have something with a card type of victory over hovel: xroads, silk road, ironmonger, and rebuild can all work better with the estate than the shelter.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [All]
 

Page created in 0.073 seconds with 21 queries.