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[Captain_Frisk]

Did I send you that article?  Brian Burke is one of my heroes.

[theory]

Nah, but you did point me to FootballOutsiders.

My sports RSS feed is now FO, Grantland, Wertheim, Mandel, Sports on Earth, and SmartFootball.  For my money Wertheim / Posnanski are the best sports writers in the field today.

[Captain_Frisk]

Burke is @ advancednflstats.com.  He's a redskins fan, so he writes a weekly article for the Post about why they suck, and he does these weekly probabilities for the nytimes, usually with a little bit of color.

This one was better than most.

[theory]

Ah, yes, that's the other one I missed.  Grantland / Sports on Earth are my most consistent favorite sites, though I really dislike Grantland's weird side ventures into pop culture writing.

[cherdano]

My favorite basketball writer is Zach Lowe (The point forward, about to move to grantland i think). Always very thoughtful (though he gets lost in CBA salary cap and trade rules a bit too often).

[cherdano]

Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.

He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.

[Ozle]

Basically Sanchez is rubbish, that's what we are all saying here, and they just need him to mess up a bit before they can bring Tebow in?

[Captain_Frisk]

Tebow is also rubbish.  If he wasn't football Jesus we wouldn't even be having this conversation. 

[Ozle]

Haha, I know, but football Jesus is more entertaining than Football sometimes!

[theory]

Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.

He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.

I think you're right, but that particular example (I assume you're talking about CAR's decision to punt) is egregious.  When you have Cam Newton, 4th-and-1, where a conversion is a win, a failed conversion is decent ATL field position, and a punt is slightly worse ATL field position, it makes zero sense at all to punt. 

[Captain_Frisk]

On the values of timeouts:

http://www.footballcommentary.com/timeouts.htm

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/lovies-latest-blunder.html

Regarding the Carolina decision, the stat geeks love this one because it has ALL of "soft" factors in favor of going for it.

1. Cam Newton
2. Expensive RBs
3. MVP Candidate QB on other team.

[theory]

Dear zxcvbn2: I am very sorry that immediately after trading you Santonio Holmes, he went down with a season-ending injury.  In the meantime I am pleased to report that Larry Fitzgerald seems to have fully recovered from his Week 1 / Week 2 doldrums.

Yeah, that was an awful trade. And now I have to find another receiver to play immediately this weekend, since the others have a bye.

I just wanted a better RB than Shonne Greene. Is that too much to ask?

SJax wasn't bad last night.  Better than he has been for me. 

You should probably also start your WR instead of picking him up and leaving him on the bench...

[theory]

RGIII NOOOOOO

[cherdano]

Burke is interesting to read. But I don't think he is sufficiently aware of the limits of his statistical approaches. Simple example: his win probability calculator ignores timeouts, since that's too tricky to get right. That might be true (I haven't thought about it), but then you should probably be a little bit careful about this before writing an entire column about a 4th-down decision that his WP calculator "proves" wrong.

He also has many posts on pass-versus-run decisions that I had my doubts about.

I think you're right, but that particular example (I assume you're talking about CAR's decision to punt) is egregious.  When you have Cam Newton, 4th-and-1, where a conversion is a win, a failed conversion is decent ATL field position, and a punt is slightly worse ATL field position, it makes zero sense at all to punt.

Oh I agree this example was obvious. But at some point he constantly wrote entire posts on some late-game decisions (field goal or go for it? etc.) where the percentages were much closer, and he never once acknowledged this limit of his model, instead taking it as gospel. As accurate gospel, in fact.

Nevertheless, I am a fan of the statistical 4th-down analysis in general. IMO it's the most clear-cut example where you can prove that highly paid "experts" at a profession constantly get a decision wrong.

[theory]

First place, baby!

[theory]

There is at least one very upset person in every single fantasy football league in the world right now: either because they played against Doug Martin, or they did not play Doug Martin.

[Captain_Frisk]

I was projected to win my other league by 16 points.

Then Doug Martin happened.

[Axxle]

I would have beat every other team this week.

I also lost in another league this week and would have beat every other team in that league too.

yay.

[chwhite]

I was projected to win my other league by 16 points.

Then Doug Martin happened.

So, in my other league, my opponent started Doug Martin that week... and I still won by a point.  This may have had less to do with m own fantasy prowess and more with the fact that my opponent kept the SF defense in on their bye week, and had two other slots with zero points scored.  I mean, I'm not the most active fantasy manager but it shouldn't be hard to make bye week substitutions!

[theory]

I would have beat every other team this week.

I also lost in another league this week and would have beat every other team in that league too.

yay.

You had a effed up distribution of points -- Danario Alexander scored more than 12 times as many points as Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace combined.

[sparky5856]

Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno

[Axxle]

Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno

Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league

[Captain_Frisk]

Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno

RB   
Rashard Mendenhall
(Pit - RB)
@Cle   L, 20-14   6.46   -2.00

[theory]

Pittsburgh RB's = LOLno

Hahahaha... (I've been hanging onto mendenhall in my office league

How's Larry Fitzgerald working out for you?  Whoda thunk that Felix Jones would end up being the star in that trade.

[theory]

Tonight, both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan get outscored by their kickers.