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Author Topic: The Bold Predictions Thread  (Read 25699 times)

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gman314

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2012, 01:38:11 pm »
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I've said this elsewhere, but I think it's worth repeating. I think that the best way to think of Rats is as a strange sort of tfb which trashes any card (except a Rats) and gives you a Rats. With this in mind, realize that it takes anything and makes it a $4. So, here is my idea for a Rats strategy.

1: Buy Rats
2: Buy TFB (Likely more than one)
3: Use Rats to trash copper/estate (priority copper; TFBs handle estates pretty well (when you don't get the tfb with rats, that is)) and gain a rats
4: Use TFB to trash Rats for benefit.
5: Repeat steps 3-4 as needed and as long as it's safe.
6: Trash remaining Rats
7: Be awesome.

You probably don't want to buy more than one Rats, and you always want to keep at most 2 rats in your deck. Although, if you get multiple tfbs you may be able to handle more rats in your deck.

This isn't a stand-alone strategy. It would probably be quite slow. This is rather an idea to use rats to make tfbs reasonable at trashing Copper. Since Rats is a cantrip, it doesn't actually hurt to turn Copper -> Rats and then Rats -> What you wanted in the first place.
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carstimon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #26 on: August 20, 2012, 01:48:04 pm »
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and you always want to keep at most 2 rats in your deck.
Well, it never* hurts to use rats to trash a curse.

*Mandatory disclaimer about edge cases such as fairgrounds or I want to upgrade to a $1 card etc
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Forge!!!

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2012, 01:54:03 pm »
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Bold Prediction: On slower boards/draw your deck boards, Hunting Grounds will be a beast.
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ycz6

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2012, 01:56:30 pm »
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Counterfeit seems more like a pumped-up Loan than a Moneylender to me.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2012, 01:58:42 pm »
+1

I agree on basically everything but Ironmonger and Hunting Grounds. Ironmonger will always be good, but doesn't look like it will be game-changingly good. It will rarely be the most useful card on the board, like the actual top 5-7 $4 cards are.

Hunting Grounds may not be good for BM, but it's going to be pretty good for engines, where you're more concerned with drawing your deck and then adding money afterwards (or maybe if you get your money from spoils). +4 cards goes a long way toward drawing your deck.

My "bold" prediction: DA will be a heavily engine-favoring set. This is probably not that bold, aside from the typeface, but I just wanted to point these key reasons out:
1. Shelters don't give VPs. So any strategy that doesn't trash the starting cards no longer has the 3 VP edge on trashing strategies, which basically buys another turn for the trashing strategy.
2. Spoils and upgrading cards are better for fast-cycling decks. Any time a card gains other cards, you have to wait a whole cycle to get them. Engines cycle faster than BM. In the extreme case, you can play the gained card on the turn you gain it.
3. There are a ton of villages and trashers!

A specific prediction is that Pillage is terrible for BM. There is no self-benefit this turn. You have to wait for the next shuffle to play the Spoils, and when that's done, nothing persists in your deck to maintain a decent money density while greening. People have said that Pillage somehow hurts enignes more because they can nuke your village. But to combat this, you just need more villages. If people are using Pillage, it's going to make the game longer, and you have time to collect more villages. Long games are generally going to favor engines.
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engineer

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2012, 02:00:57 pm »
+1

Counterfeit is waaaaaay better than loan.  It lets you play the treasure twice before you trash it!  That's a huge difference, even with lowly copper.  And besides trashing copper, counterfeit is a huge megaturn-enabler where you sacrifice your treasure to gain an insurmountable lead (or end the game), and loan can't even pretend to do that.

Edit: I do agree that counterfeit might be the "redesigned" loan in much the same way we expect that noble brigand was the "redesigned" thief.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2012, 02:04:36 pm »
+3

Counterfeit is waaaaaay better than loan.  It lets you play the treasure twice before you trash it!  That's a huge difference, even with lowly copper.  And besides trashing copper, counterfeit is a huge megaturn-enabler where you sacrifice your treasure to gain an insurmountable lead (or end the game), and loan can't even pretend to do that.

Edit: I do agree that counterfeit might be the "redesigned" loan in much the same way we expect that noble brigand was the "redesigned" thief.
<$5 card> is waaaay better than <$3 card>. You can probably say this for a pretty hefty percentage of card choices...
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gman314

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2012, 02:05:39 pm »
+2

<$5 card> is waaaay better than <$3 card>. You can probably say this for a pretty hefty percentage of card choices...

Stash is waaaaay better than Ambassador!

Edit: I know you were only talking about the majority, but I couldn't resist! :D
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ednever

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2012, 02:59:59 pm »
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Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.

I hadn't thought of this! But in truth, it's probably more of a defense from Swindling. If Thief is the only Attack on the board, it's worse. But even other bad Attacks aren't that bad, just situationally bad, or bad in comparison to other cards. I would rather have my Squire swindled into a Saboteur AND an Estate than just an Estate. I wouldn't buy a Saboteur, but I'll probably want one as a bonus for being swindled.

Isn't worse case an Estate and a Swindler? (unless the swindler came from black market I guess)

Ed
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chwhite

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2012, 03:12:35 pm »
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I think it's actually not bold at all to call Squire a power card.  +2 Actions, +$1 for $2 is pretty reasonable to begin with, and when you add in all the other things it can do for your engine (+2 Buys, trash for an Attack) OR for your alt-VP rush (Gain a Silver, +2 Buys again) I think it's entirely reasonable to view this card as on par with the Lighthouse/Courtyard/Hamlet trio, and very possibly better than them. 

Here are some bold predictions that I'm probably not going to test for awhile yet, since I'm trying to take a break from online Dominion for a little bit:

*Poor House is going to be better than you think.  Obviously it needs an enginey setup with trashing and +Action and +Buys, but when those things are around it will be an amazing way to ramp up your buy power quickly.
*Wandering Minstrel is going to be one of my favorite cards, even though it kind of defies the typical Village theming.  I've been waiting for a minstrel-themed card since day 1, and tacking that theme on to a Village that fishes for Actions is just gravy.  I think it is probably going to be the best $4 Village, certainly better than Farming, though Worker's may still have a case.
*Mercenary is not going to be all that great.  At some point, you're going to run out of things you want to trash, even with all the DA trash synergies, and it's an "if you do" clause, so it's not even like you can discard down to nothing and try to trash to get the attack.  I'm sure it will have its uses every once in a while, but most of the time I bet it's actually not worth it- or even when it is, you'll only be able to play it once or twice.
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RisingJaguar

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2012, 04:13:13 pm »
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Any kingdom with an engine that can draw out your hand and include Pillage will be a race nobody will want to play.  Sure there will be instances with maybe fishing villages (Can only target the +cards) or chapel-like trashing (engine cards will be more dense in the starting 5) that the attack won't hurt so much, but Pillage looks like it will crush hearts.  Luckily, there will be cards that it will nombo with (margrave, minions, etc.)

Poor house's best friend will be worker's village.  There probably will need to be some sort of trashing or maybe sifters like warehouse to help, but this looks like it'll be dominant in more games than people expect.  Of course it will be rather useless in a lot of other games, but the potential is here when there is any sort of trashing, which seems to be everywhere now. 

Hermit as a card will disappoint in games without trash for benefits, more specifically, trash and gainers.  That probably won't be a problem with DA, but if playing totally random, this will struggle to get madmen. 

Scavenger is the card chancellor wanted to be.  I think this will become a very strong card to speed up the deck and set up next turn.  At $4, it allows you to open it with a silver for a BM route. 

Overall, these cards will really struggle outside of DA (or in a 'random' set with less than 3 DA cards).  I feel almost similar to how alchemy gets a boost when playing with an alchemy-based deck, the boost will  be similar for DA.  There just aren't enough cards that can/want to trash, and do all these neat little tricks with. 

PS. Watchtower sounds silly good now. 
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dondon151

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2012, 04:39:09 pm »
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Gave my thoughts on certain card interactions here: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4233.0

I am still unsold on the power of Feodum. It's hard to build them up even with somewhat decent support (most Silver-gainers) and they probably end up being worth little when contested. However, letting an opponent have the entire Feodum stack is disastrous, and denying Feodums is significantly less beneficial than denying other alt VP cards like Silk Road or Gardens. Really difficult to assess.

Catacombs is great for both BM and engines. It probably helps engines a bit more, because the improvement in consistency is better than a +3 card terminal drawer at $5 for BM. I can't really think of any good way to use its on-trash ability, though.

Storeroom looks pretty weak except in certain combos. It would be nice for engine consistency, but it doesn't help at all in the situations where you draw your Storeroom and terminal actions with no Village in hand. I'd much rather prefer Warehouse or even Cellar in those circumstances. +Buy is kind of useful, I guess.

Forager: good for engines; not overly strong. Non-terminal trashing is cool. Getting some small benefit out of trashing Copper (as opposed to trashers like Salvager) is also cool, but you don't get a benefit out of trashing Estates until a Copper has been trashed. Maybe not so good when $5s need to be gained quickly and trashing isn't so necessary, but this should enable weaker engines better.

Marauder: don't know exactly how powerful this is, but I'm guessing it's a power $4. The attack is nearly as disruptive as Sea Hag, but this card also gives you a temporary source of buying power that Sea Hag doesn't provide. I may legitimately take one of these over Sea Hag first of both are on the board just for the Spoils. Though, Sea Hag does put the Curse on your deck. Hmm...

Market Square is basically like Tunnel, but the situations in which they play are completely different. Market Square works with trashing; trashing makes it more likely to pair your trasher with Market Square; trashing stalls your economy temporarily but Market Square gets you Golds for free, and Market Square is a cantrip +buy once your engine gets going. Kingdom-dependent, but really a must-have in any engine that has trashing.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 04:42:41 pm by dondon151 »
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Rhombus

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #37 on: August 20, 2012, 04:46:27 pm »
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Re WW: Hunting Grounds is good if you can upgrade into it, or if you really need draw, but it is indeed situational due to cost.
Re ch: Poor House definitely is good - and playing a moneyless deck is super fun too.
Re everyone: I agree, Squire is a power $2.

I love Hermit/Madman - it's like flexible Tactician, and that's awesome.

Bold Predictions:

Hermit/Madman may become my favorite new card(s).

Strategies to use Pillage and top deck them from the trash on the same turn will be strong (with a high 1p advantage).  Whoever gets this set up first may very well win.

Marauder is very strong because not only does it dole out ruins, but you gain spoils at the same time.  You'll need a very good counter to avoid having to purchase a Marauder or two yourself.

Wandering Minstrel may become the village of choice in most games.

Death Cart games where it's a key component will be very swingy and hated (if purchasing it early is important, which with a card like Marauder or perhaps even Cultist it will be).  Less swingly in mid and end game.  In a ruins game without much/any trashing, once ruins are out this is a powerhouse.

Cursers will lose strength to Looters because looters tend to have much more benefit to the attacker.
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Squeek

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2012, 04:55:38 pm »
+1

I can see Beggar being a great card when Gardens and/or Dukes are out.  Copper and silver is all you need to get to 4 or 5.

Beggar + Trader is a great combo as well.

Beggar could also help feed your rats when vineyard is in play.
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Rhombus

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #39 on: August 20, 2012, 05:01:32 pm »
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re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.  It also combos well with Procession, TR, KC, or some similar setup.  I agree on Storeroom and Marauder.
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werothegreat

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #40 on: August 20, 2012, 05:02:46 pm »
+2

BOLD PREDICTION:

Worker's Village/Beggar/Counting House will be AWESOME.  Maybe throw some Coppersmiths in there.
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dondon151

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #41 on: August 20, 2012, 05:04:09 pm »
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re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.

I will almost have to disagree on this one. Whereas buying varied VP cards is nearly inevitable in the endgame, trashing good Treasures is not. Maybe you will trash a Silver; you will almost not certainly trash Gold, though. Definitely not to build up Forager, because: if you do it early on, you lose a Gold, and if you do it later in the final stretch, you could have trashed a Copper/VP/Action card for slightly more net coin.

EDIT: Forager/Quarry in the presence of a good engine should be decent, though. Collision is good; once you don't need the Quarry anymore, +$1 on the Forager.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 05:08:23 pm by dondon151 »
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AJD

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #42 on: August 20, 2012, 05:04:50 pm »
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Hermit as a card will disappoint in games without trash for benefits, more specifically, trash and gainers.  That probably won't be a problem with DA, but if playing totally random, this will struggle to get madmen. 

Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #43 on: August 20, 2012, 05:05:14 pm »
+1

Bold Prediction: Beggar/BM will be a legitimate play style. Open Beggar/Silver on 4/3 split or even 5/2 for that matter. Whenever you can get a gold or Province by playing Beggar, play Beggar. Yah, those Coppers will dilute your deck, but just play Beggar a couple of times or so per game.
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werothegreat

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #44 on: August 20, 2012, 05:08:59 pm »
+2

Beggar/Trader/Feodum
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Rhombus

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #45 on: August 20, 2012, 05:09:36 pm »
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re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.

I will almost have to disagree on this one. Whereas buying varied VP cards is nearly inevitable in the endgame, trashing good Treasures is not. Maybe you will trash a Silver; you will almost not certainly trash Gold, though. Definitely not to build up Forager, because: if you do it early on, you lose a Gold, and if you do it later in the final stretch, you could have trashed a Copper/VP/Action card for slightly more net coin.

It really depends on what TFB's are on the board, as you said.  And if you have the stronger engine, then you can get a gold in there to power your Foragers.  Thinking more, I'm probably not evaluating completely correctly because on the game or two I played with Forager, my opponent fully powered it for me, but my engine was stronger so thrashed him with it (completing 2 and 3 province turns).  There were also reasons to pick up Foragers eg plenty of actions, Armory, and strong 4's, BOM, and good 6's, all typically being TFB, so there was trashing left and right.

In general in Dark Ages games, the trash pile always gets huge - bigger than any deck by far.
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adf

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #46 on: August 20, 2012, 05:14:25 pm »
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Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.

Has nothing to do with Hermit trashing, has to do with buy forfeit. It's basically like a cheaper Tac that provides the big hand on some turn in the future (perhaps the next, perhaps later).
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clb

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #47 on: August 20, 2012, 05:42:12 pm »
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I think it's actually not bold at all to call Squire a power card.  +2 Actions, +$1 for $2 is pretty reasonable to begin with, and
*Mercenary is not going to be all that great.  At some point, you're going to run out of things you want to trash, even with all the DA trash synergies, and it's an "if you do" clause, so it's not even like you can discard down to nothing and try to trash to get the attack.  I'm sure it will have its uses every once in a while, but most of the time I bet it's actually not worth it- or even when it is, you'll only be able to play it once or twice.

So, do you think Mercenaries love skewering and roasting Rats? Combo or nombo?
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adf

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #48 on: August 20, 2012, 05:45:57 pm »
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Bold Prediction: Beggar/BM will be a legitimate play style. Open Beggar/Silver on 4/3 split or even 5/2 for that matter. Whenever you can get a gold or Province by playing Beggar, play Beggar. Yah, those Coppers will dilute your deck, but just play Beggar a couple of times or so per game.

It's a little iffy. 3 Copper + Gold = $1.5/card, just below the $1.6/card needed for Provinces.
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LastFootnote

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #49 on: August 20, 2012, 05:50:34 pm »
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I think Forager may be effective in games with Knights and Rogues, where Silver and Gold may be trashed incidentally.
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