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WanderingWinder

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The Bold Predictions Thread
« on: August 20, 2012, 10:16:57 am »
+4

Well, yeah, we already have the make-fools-of-ourselves card analysis game. But this thread is particularly for the cards you think other people will mis-evaluate. Here is your chance to be the first to point out the IGG rush, or that JoaT is a really good card, actually, or that Jester really isn't all that hot, or whatever, but for the Dark Ages cards. And let me tell you, I have some bold predictions to make here.

Count - Well, as I've already said, I think this card is probably better, on the whole, than Mandarin, but not very good, and a below-average 5-cost. Great for Duke and Silk Road, pretty good for gardens, decent if you can spike one on turn 1-2, pretty mediocre otherwise.

Rebuild - I think this will be one of the most powerful cards in the set. Think about for a second, that it takes basically 6 plays of this card to get your starting estates into provinces (and it's non-terminal!). And then probably you can buy duchies relatively easily and turn them into provinces fairly quick. I mean, 2-3 of these, then buy only green will be a pretty good BM strategy, on the speed order of JoaT. Yep, I'm going to make that claim. Now, you can run the risk of drawing these with too much green (you need it to be in the discard pile). But this also works really well with decently good non-drawing terminals at the sub-$5 level (monument, militia, maybe swindler). And it's going to be very nice with sifters like warehouse. And it's really resilient to just about every kind of attack. Finally, it's a nice anti-engine card, because you burn through VP as you go, lowering the 50% of VP game-win threshhold fairly nicely.

Beggar - I mean, okay, the card is pretty terrible. But I bet it helps big money okay, actually. Combos with counting house. And great with alternate VP. Hmm, maybe that's not so bold.

Hermit - See, I think this will be hardly worse than JoaT, but more conducive to many different strategies. This can certainly be a darling for engines where you have a cheap enough engine component. Or you can play it like Jack. Really strong, though, I expect - being able to trash so targetedly will be very nice.

Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

Ironmonger - Already talked about this too, and I think this card compares pretty favorably to tournament, actually, and if we are to believe chwhite, that is the best 4-cost card. I would be pretty darn shocked if this isn't a top-6 4-cost, and wouldn't be surprised at all if it's even better than that.

Squire - I firmly expect that this will be the 2nd-best 2-cost card, after chapel. Oftentimes, you'd rather have courtyard or fool's gold, and sometimes if there's terrible attacks, lighthouse, but I really expect this to be better than hamlet.

Urchin - Well, really this is about Mercenary, which I expect to be not that great at all. I think massing urchins early will be terrible. But this will be fine in engines, where silver is no longer important, and the attack, while it doesn't do much, can be sorta nice.

Feel free to get in (civil) arguments, call me crazy, or make your own bold predictions.

Robz888

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2012, 10:48:53 am »
0

WW, I want to hugely agree with you on Squire. Squire is so good it's ridiculous. Granted, I only played with it once, but man, that's a great card. It's easy to see why. It's like Hamlet, only better in a lot of ways, and Hamlet is already a top 2 or 3 $2 card. It's not better in the situation where you WANT to discard cards (Menagerie, Library, Watchtower), but better in most other situations. I mean, the thing is, you can just get so many Actions and Buys out of it, so cheaply. And it bakes money into your draw engine. With Squire, it's going to be easier than ever to setup a draw-your-whole deck thing.

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.
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Robz888

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2012, 10:49:52 am »
+6

Speaking of Squire (and Nixon), here's another prediction: "We're all engine players now." - Robz888
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flies

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2012, 11:07:11 am »
0

Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 11:12:24 am by flies »
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GendoIkari

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2012, 11:12:02 am »
0

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2012, 11:13:53 am »
+1

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
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Robz888

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2012, 11:17:06 am »
+1

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.

I hadn't thought of this! But in truth, it's probably more of a defense from Swindling. If Thief is the only Attack on the board, it's worse. But even other bad Attacks aren't that bad, just situationally bad, or bad in comparison to other cards. I would rather have my Squire swindled into a Saboteur AND an Estate than just an Estate. I wouldn't buy a Saboteur, but I'll probably want one as a bonus for being swindled.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2012, 11:22:29 am »
+3

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2012, 11:23:12 am »
0

Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
See, I would put that, but everybody has already been saying that this is a weak, terrible card.

Robz888

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2012, 11:24:53 am »
+1

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.

Oh yeah, duh. Actually, Squire is probably an incredibly mild defense against Swindler. If you swindle my Squire, I get a Swindler. Take that!
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2012, 11:28:27 am »
+1

I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.
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Robz888

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2012, 11:30:58 am »
+1

I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.

I disagree, so here's another bold prediction: Dark Ages will be GREAT for Fairgrounds. Especially Shelters. Shelters/Fairgrounds will be dominant over Provinces most of the time.
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2012, 11:32:13 am »
0

I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.

I disagree, so here's another bold prediction: Dark Ages will be GREAT for Fairgrounds. Especially Shelters. Shelters/Fairgrounds will be dominant over Provinces most of the time.

I just think DA will be OK for Fairgrounds.  Not amazing. ;)

e.g. if Shelters+Fairgrounds is good for a board, it would probably have been an OK Fairgrounds board even without Shelters.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 11:33:17 am by eHalcyon »
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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2012, 11:37:48 am »
0

I think Rats might be worth the risk if the only other trasher is limited to non-Treasures (like Jack or Hermit) or Actions (like Death Cart -- but not Procession, that's madness). If you're feeling truly reckless, you could turn your Coppers/Curses/Ruins into Rats just so they can be killed by Knights.
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GendoIkari

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2012, 11:40:54 am »
0

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.

Lol, duh. Indeed, Swindler has to be gone as well. Either way, I hope it was obvious that my post was tongue-in-cheek.
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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2012, 11:49:33 am »
+1

Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

I'll disagree here.
Draw 4 cards.

If the average money value in your deck is .75, this is equal to a gold. If its any higher than that and its better than gold at the same price point. Add a TfB to the board and your probably getting a Province with your duchy (Remodel, Salvager, Apprentice, Govenor)
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flies

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2012, 11:54:03 am »
0

Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
See, I would put that, but everybody has already been saying that this is a weak, terrible card.
I guess I haven't been keeping up.  This card looked neat to me, but yeah, it's really tough to make work.
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GendoIkari

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2012, 12:03:01 pm »
0

Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

I'll disagree here.
Draw 4 cards.

If the average money value in your deck is .75, this is equal to a gold. If its any higher than that and its better than gold at the same price point. Add a TfB to the board and your probably getting a Province with your duchy (Remodel, Salvager, Apprentice, Govenor)

Except it costs an action to play; so you can't play more than 1 per turn without Village help. Really I think this card is a lot like Adventurer in a BM game... yes, there's a fair amount of the time that playing 1 of them gets you more money to spend than playing a Gold does. But that action really is expensive, and you might draw this dead with your Smithy or whatnot. Hunting Grounds probably works better in an engine, but then $6 is really expensive for engine components. Most of the time I'd rather have a Council Room.
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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2012, 12:42:43 pm »
0

Armory - This is going to be a very weak $4, definitely weaker than Ironworks. It will be bad for alt-VP rushes, even though you can use it to get lots of Armories in consecutive turns. If you use it to get Silver, it is worse than Bureaucrat which at least has a weak attack. So, it will be bad in rushes and BM, and only mildly ok in engines with lots of < $4 engine parts. Even then, it's not much better than Workshop. I'd guess bottom 10 cost $4 cards.

Cultist - Cultist isn't as strong as many people think. Sure, it will be good, especially in trashed-down engines, but it won't be anywhere as good as Witch. I'd place it around 15, and definitely outside the top ten $5-cost cards. The problem with Cultist is that in a mirror match, the Ruins you will receive will muck you up too much to either reliably hit $5 or have your Cultists find each other. Plus, you can't really think of it as a Lab, since even if you manage to string together a few Cultists, you won't have any actions to play other actions you find along the way.

Death Cart - What an interesting card! The self-trashing option is very much like Feast (but better (with self-attacked Ruinses)). The real power comes out when you have other actions you are willing to trash, including Ruinses and DA cards with on-trash benefits. This card will be a mid-power $4, though it will really shine on certain boards with other DA cards (can you say Death Cart + Squire + Cultists?)

Market Square The power of Market Square obviously depends a lot on the trashers on the board. Without them, this is only really viable without any other +Buy. But, I think Market Square will be an excellent opening with any decent opening trasher (Chapel, Remake, Steward, Bishop, etc.), and even some less-decent opening trashers (Lookout, Remodel, etc.). Look to see some of these openings be in the top-tier.

Storeroom - Storeroom + BM will actually be pretty strong. You can sift through a lot of cards to find Silver and Gold, and then discard anything else for money. It also allows you to happily discard your Coppers the first time around, knowing you can at least get a Copper out of any card in your hand. The combination of Cellar and Secret Chamber will make this a mid-range $3.

Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.
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werothegreat

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2012, 12:49:06 pm »
+1

Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.

Think of it as a more expensive, non-terminal Moneylender with +Buy.
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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2012, 12:52:21 pm »
0

Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.

Think of it as a more expensive, non-terminal Moneylender with +Buy.

That also works on other treasures, especially mid-game Silvers and late-game Golds. But yes, good description.
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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2012, 01:07:51 pm »
0

Ok I'll bite on rats.
If the following 3 conditions are met:
-You're being cursed/looted (less necessary)
-There is (pretty good) trash for benefit
-You're making an engine
then rats will be pretty good.

Let's see:
Fishing Village, Oasis,
Rats, Horse Traders, Noble Brigand
Upgrade, Witch, Margrave, Lab, Horn of Plenty

(Besides Rats, all non DA because I'm not familiar enough with the rest of the set.)  I'd like to try this: fv/silver and hope for $5 turn 3 or 4: get Margrave. Get a rats.  Then get FV/FV/Upgrade on 3/4/5.  Well, hold back on the rats if you haven't got enough upgrades yet.  Don't play rats or buy rats if it would put your # of rats more than 1 over # of upgrades.  Upgrade rats to Margrave or Lab depending on how many FV you have.  Once you have enough upgrades (5?) hit the drawing cards, or move on to HoP.

You need like, five upgrades here, that's the big problem.  It seems like a lot of work to upgrade your upgrade, so to speak.  But see, I think the +1 card from trashing rats is big enough; I think it makes up for the times when I don't want to play rats.  And rememember this is the bold predictions thread, I haven't actually played with rats :)
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 01:09:57 pm by carstimon »
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werothegreat

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2012, 01:20:53 pm »
+1

Ok I'll bite on rats.
If the following 3 conditions are met:
-You're being cursed/looted (less necessary)
-There is (pretty good) trash for benefit
-You're making an engine
then rats will be pretty good.

Let's see:
Fishing Village, Oasis,
Rats, Horse Traders, Noble Brigand
Upgrade, Witch, Margrave, Lab, Horn of Plenty

(Besides Rats, all non DA because I'm not familiar enough with the rest of the set.)  I'd like to try this: fv/silver and hope for $5 turn 3 or 4: get Margrave. Get a rats.  Then get FV/FV/Upgrade on 3/4/5.  Well, hold back on the rats if you haven't got enough upgrades yet.  Don't play rats or buy rats if it would put your # of rats more than 1 over # of upgrades.  Upgrade rats to Margrave or Lab depending on how many FV you have.  Once you have enough upgrades (5?) hit the drawing cards, or move on to HoP.

You need like, five upgrades here, that's the big problem.  It seems like a lot of work to upgrade your upgrade, so to speak.  But see, I think the +1 card from trashing rats is big enough; I think it makes up for the times when I don't want to play rats.  And rememember this is the bold predictions thread, I haven't actually played with rats :)

I would just go for Lab - Upgrade/Rats acts as a Lab - I'd rather just get one Upgrade, rather than lots of Rats.  Now, if Lab were not on the board, say instead you had City, then I'd go Rats/Upgrade and try to empty the Rats pile.  Maybe.
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carstimon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2012, 01:26:40 pm »
0

...
I would just go for Lab - Upgrade/Rats acts as a Lab - I'd rather just get one Upgrade, rather than lots of Rats.  Now, if Lab were not on the board, say instead you had City, then I'd go Rats/Upgrade and try to empty the Rats pile.  Maybe.
I don't agree.  With fishing village there's no reason to not get margraves, for better draw and an attack.  Upgrade/Rats is very unlike Lab, it does not increase your hand size.  Upgrade/Rats is: replace upgrade/rats with two new cards, trash the rats, gain a $5 card.  I want more than one upgrade against witch.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2012, 01:29:04 pm by carstimon »
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engineer

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2012, 01:31:19 pm »
+3

Like I said in the initial reactions thread, I think you guys are missing the beauty of rats.  When you have garbage in your deck, rats turn your garbage temporarily into cantrips (until you run out of garbage), giving you much faster access to your actual trasher.  If you have a solid TfB card, you will get to play it more often for a few shuffles, and you will get the additional bonus of $4-cost garbage and +1 card when trashing that garbage.
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