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Author Topic: The Bold Predictions Thread  (Read 35060 times)

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eHalcyon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #75 on: August 21, 2012, 10:53:14 am »
0

They're getting the info from the front page of the blog, which has incorrect wording for several cards. Either theory posted an old wording for the cards, or he decided to paraphrase them.

Either way, both Rogue and Knights reveal, trash, then discard. A trashed Tunnel will not activate first.

Oh, well, OK then. Darn front page!  :P
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theory

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #76 on: August 21, 2012, 11:00:15 am »
0

They're getting the info from the front page of the blog, which has incorrect wording for several cards. Either theory posted an old wording for the cards, or he decided to paraphrase them.

Either way, both Rogue and Knights reveal, trash, then discard. A trashed Tunnel will not activate first.

Good catch.  I am using card texts from the Isotropic playtest server, which were very slightly tweaked after testing and before it was printed.

EDIT: Fixed front page.
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geemsean

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2012, 01:06:31 pm »
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I also feel that Squire may end up being an extreme power card.
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Razzishi

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #78 on: August 22, 2012, 10:35:11 pm »
0

Steward is a strong $3 because of the choices it has, not because any one of those is worth $3 on its own.

Steward is good because it's one of the few cards that can trash 2 cards at once and not be completely dead once the trashing isn't needed, with each of the other options being potentially useful dependent on deck composition.  Stated another way, Steward's 3 options make it strong despite each option being worse than a $2 because they each do completely different things; while at the beginning of the game +$2 and +2 cards are very similar, once you've done some trashing they'll be completely different.  There's absolutely no reason to believe that such a balance of effects will be available with Band of Misfits on a randomly chosen board without looking at that board as a whole.  Steward is pretty much an auto-go-to in absence of better options; BoM is a card that requires specific justification each time.

So yes, it's board dependent, and my gut feeling is that it's going to be generally a waste of a $5 with the occasional Militia/Masq/Village board.
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michaeljb

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #79 on: August 22, 2012, 10:55:53 pm »
0

There's absolutely no reason to believe that such a balance of effects will be available with Band of Misfits on a randomly chosen board without looking at that board as a whole.

Except for the one--that a majority* of the published kingdom cards cost less than $5.

edit
*104/192
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 10:59:59 pm by michaeljb »
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NoMoreFun

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #80 on: August 22, 2012, 11:02:59 pm »
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*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.
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michaeljb

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #81 on: August 22, 2012, 11:08:23 pm »
+1

*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #82 on: August 22, 2012, 11:11:27 pm »
+1

*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

Well, it does have the benefit of being an unstoppable combo once it goes off unless there is a discard attack. I wouldn't call this broken, but it could mean that whoever goes first or gets the better split ends up winning.
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michaeljb

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #83 on: August 22, 2012, 11:14:08 pm »
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*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

Well, it does have the benefit of being an unstoppable combo once it goes off unless there is a discard attack. I wouldn't call this broken, but it could mean that whoever goes first or gets the better split ends up winning.

True, I'm sure it will be very strong, and hardly the first "better split ends up winning" combo.

I just laughed a little when the word "broken" was mentioned, and then the old "pics or didn't happen" popped into my head, and I just had to translate it to DS-speak and post it :P
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NoMoreFun

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #84 on: August 22, 2012, 11:18:21 pm »
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*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

I put a thread in the Puzzles board, asking how fast the combo could be set up with rotten shuffle luck, and with rotten shuffle luck and a Sea Hag attacking you every turn. The results may be surprisingly fast, considering how well the parts of the combo assist each other in completing the combo (Scavenger's +$2 will be key). With this combo you only need to buy 5 cards and play 1 to guarantee a province buy from every turn after that. Militia style attacks will only hold you off for a single turn. Pillage will work precisely once, and then you can buy a 4th stash with the $6 in your hand, and then come next scavenger play you'll still be able to buy a province after a pillage - not very good odds for a oneshot. Minion is the only true counter.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 11:43:08 pm by NoMoreFun »
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NoMoreFun

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #85 on: August 22, 2012, 11:47:12 pm »
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I should point out though that every hand you have the chance of getting both scavengers in the same hand, which will screw you up (so you'd need an extra scavenger or stash to pull off the combo impeccably)
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #86 on: August 23, 2012, 12:02:00 am »
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I should point out though that every hand you have the chance of getting both scavengers in the same hand, which will screw you up (so you'd need an extra scavenger or stash to pull off the combo impeccably)

I bet the statistics though of that happening are very slim, especially as more and more Provinces are added to your deck.
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michaeljb

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #87 on: August 23, 2012, 02:25:08 am »
+1

*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

I put a thread in the Puzzles board, asking how fast the combo could be set up with rotten shuffle luck, and with rotten shuffle luck and a Sea Hag attacking you every turn. The results may be surprisingly fast, considering how well the parts of the combo assist each other in completing the combo (Scavenger's +$2 will be key). With this combo you only need to buy 5 cards and play 1 to guarantee a province buy from every turn after that. Militia style attacks will only hold you off for a single turn. Pillage will work precisely once, and then you can buy a 4th stash with the $6 in your hand, and then come next scavenger play you'll still be able to buy a province after a pillage - not very good odds for a oneshot. Minion is the only true counter.

Even so, I doubt the community will call Scavenger/Stash "broken." I don't have any links on hand, but if you do a bit of digging on BGG you can find many a thread where someone argued something was broken, and hilarity ensued.

I don't even think there's really a community consensus that the KC/Masq pin is "broken."
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NoMoreFun

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #88 on: August 23, 2012, 02:28:07 am »
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I can't wait to see simulation stats for some of the Dark Ages combos. I'm having a hard time imagining Big Money winning a single game against Scavenger/Stash.
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blueblimp

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #89 on: August 23, 2012, 03:04:21 am »
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Scavenger/Stash isn't broken unless it is much better than Wharf/Fool's Gold and Ironworks/Silk Road (previous to Dark Ages, the strongest non-attacking 2-card combos according to simulation).
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engineer

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #90 on: August 23, 2012, 03:13:00 am »
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In my mind, a strategy is "broken" if it's the dominant strategy on every board on which it exists.  Scavenger/stash seems like it might be close to that.  But I'm not convinced yet.

One thing we're not taking into account here is the amount of time required to acquire 3 $5 cards and two $4 cards.  Obviously that's usually pretty quick, but that process can be slowed down.  For example, double militia may only be marginally effective once the scavenger/stash combo is built, but maybe it's powerful enough to slow down the combo building phase sufficiently to beat the strategy.  Alternatively, if a full-deck-drawing engine can be built quickly enough and a militia-type attack is available, then that militia can be played every turn, effectively blocking the scavenger/stash combo from getting provinces.

IF scavenger/stash turns out to be dominant on every board without minion, then I would call that close enough to broken to be unfun. But, as NoMoreFun pointed out, Minion hard counters this strategy, so scavenger/stash definitely isn't always dominant; and if the above militia strategies are effective as well, then I'd say there are enough kingdoms which beat this strategy to make it interesting.

I will admit that I'm curious if Donald saw the scavenger/stash combo in playtesting. 
« Last Edit: August 23, 2012, 01:32:01 pm by engineer »
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ftl

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #91 on: August 23, 2012, 03:15:47 am »
+2

I'm pretty sure he did, considering Chancellor/Stash is pretty well-known and Scavenger is basically based on Chancellor.
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Loschmidt

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #92 on: August 23, 2012, 03:57:51 am »
+1

I will admit that I'm curious if Donald saw the scavenger/stash combo in playtesting.

He's probably not too worried because it won't come up too often and also Stash is a promo. Weird shit is allowed to happen with promos.
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ghostofmars

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #93 on: August 23, 2012, 08:23:32 am »
0

I think Sca/Sta is going to be quite strong, if your Sca never collide.

The fastest way to 4xProvince is 10 turns
1+2) open Sca/Sil
3) buy Sca
4-6) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sta
7-10) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Prov

But even a slow game with 5/2 and Sca missing first reshuffle start
1+2) open Sca/-
3+4) buy Sca/Sil
5) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sil
6-8) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sta
9-12) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Prov

The biggest risk is to hit two Sca in one hand which amounts to (4-s) / (n-1) for s Stashes in a n card deck. As a consequence in ~50% of the you games, you will buy 3 Stashes without collision, in the rest you have bad luck and will loose 2~3 turns cycling the deck once more.
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Gamer-man

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #94 on: August 23, 2012, 10:57:21 am »
+1

I predict that the secret history of dark ages will have at least 5 former intrigue cards mentioned (as that was the "one shot" expansion before that theme got scrapped).  but that isn't all that bold, i want a bolder prediction

"Shanty Town: I took this from the ruins of the 7th expansion."

I boldly predict that the ruins of 7th expansion was literally the ruins of the 7th expansion this whole time!
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adf

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #95 on: August 23, 2012, 02:14:00 pm »
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Is it worth buying a fourth Stash for the guaranteed lock? The sims can answer this.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #96 on: August 23, 2012, 05:25:06 pm »
0

Is it worth buying a fourth Stash for the guaranteed lock? The sims can answer this.

No. Go green--Duchy. At least, that is what I think.
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jonts26

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #97 on: August 23, 2012, 05:58:49 pm »
0

So before you get this set up, you might end up buying a third scavenger or a 4th stash anyway. In which case the following is moot. However, it's probability time.

The chances of colliding scavengers once this is set up is 1 in deck size - 4. Or for our purposes, P(No Collision) = (d-5)/(d-4), where d is total deck size. So let's say we have a kingdom where there are no extra buys and we set up by turn 10 so we have a 19 card deck. Then P(NC)=.933 for that turn. If we assume the deck grows by 1 each turn, then the cumulative probability of no collision is Pcum,n=Pcum,n-1*(dn-5)/(dn-4), where dn is the deck size on turn n. So you get 4 provinces before a problem 77.8% of the time, 5 provinces 73.7% of the time and all 8 provinces 63.6% of the time.

So odds are good that you won't have any issues once you get set up. But it's really bad to miss early here, because you need to go through your whole deck before you can hit province (most likely) again. So I would say, try to foolproof this strategy early with an extra scavenger or stash, but once you start buying provinces, just start greening and hope for no bad luck.


/math
« Last Edit: August 23, 2012, 06:00:09 pm by jonts26 »
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Piemaster

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #98 on: August 26, 2012, 02:48:26 am »
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I'm chuffed that my opinions which I already registered in the other thread seem to broadly align with WWs as that suggests my card evaluation is not too off-base, other than Ironmonger, which I think will be more like Tribute than anything.  In addition:

Pillage - The new Possession.  The benefits are good, but the costs are higher than they first seem.

Bandit Camp - The new Market.  A nice card that will never be bad as such, but it will be terribly overvalued by weaker players.

Sage - The new Jack of All Trades.  It will end up being extremely good but nobody will quite be able to work out why.

Band of Misfits - The new Horn of Plenty.  Good players will often use to to devastating effect, while bad players will try to use it and get crushed.
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eHalcyon

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Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
« Reply #99 on: August 26, 2012, 03:13:35 am »
0

Sage - The new Jack of All Trades.  It will end up being extremely good but nobody will quite be able to work out why.

I think Sage will be good because it will help cycle and line up strong cards.  In a game I played with Sage, it let me power through curses and coppers to get to my own Witch more often, and also to line up Fortress and multiple Goons in a junked deck.

Jack is good because it trashes junk (Estates and Curses) while flooding your deck and still leaving you with a good hand (by drawing back up to 5 with slightly filtering).  It does a little of everything in one convenient package.  It wasn't known when it was new, but it's understood now!
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