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[Reyk]

This game shows the importance of timing province buys in games without plus buys - and the special responsibility for the starting player in this case. He will almost inevitably lose missing the critical moment while for the second player it's the difference between win and draw.

It's very much a mirror match with loan, minions, conspirators:

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110730-091741-e380dbdc.html

I couldn't get the critical 5$ at turn 9 and 11 (maybe 8$ is already critical at this point) and will discuss the gained cards later. With my opponent starting province buys at turn 11 and alternating province buys every following turn there was nothing left to do. The desperate duchy gain at turn 14 was aesthetically flawed. Imagine the picturesque score graph had I bought that last province instead.

Now the aforementioned critical turns:
1) Turn 9: 4$
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110730-091741-e380dbdc.html#califax-show-turn-9

I decided that another conspirator would be too risky and bought the second cellar instead as there is no point in reaching more than 8$. This might be ok.

2) Turn 11: 4$
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110730-091741-e380dbdc.html#califax-show-turn-11

Deck composition at this point:
califax: 3 points : 4 Minion, 3 Conspirator, 1 Loan, 2 Cellar, 3 Estate, 5 Copper
Thisisnotasmile: 3 points : 5 Minion, 3 Conspirator, 1 Loan, 1 Cellar, 3 Estate, 3 Copper

Bying another cellar here was clearly a mistake. You have to see the threat of the second player to start buying provinces. I was aware of the more or less equal number of the critical minions/conspirators, but haven't followed the more successfull loan play of my opponent enough. Otherwise I would have bought a workshop to give the opponent something to think for. Assumed an otherwise identical course that last estate in the extra turn might change the outcome. Of course the workshop could well have been in the way at an early point during the turn so that you can't discard to it again. And of course he might simply buy a workshop too. But it was the only chance anyway.
Note that reaching 5$ it would have been tempting to buy the last minion - and it would have been a mistake too.

Questions:
- I was thinking about including workshop early to gain conspirators/cellars, but thought it would be too much in the way for minion gains.
- Would it have been an option to buy a second loan?

What do you think on these?

[DG]

I think the draws went against you. If we look at turn 10-11 there is some interesting stuff though. On turn 10 your played out your minions and playing the loan forced a shuffle. This left you with the bad hand of 3 copper and two estates, the cards you had discarded when playing your minions. Your opponent however played a minion to discard the hand, when he didn't actually need to, forcing a similar reshuffle by playing his loan.

Despite your bad hand getting thrown away and your opponent chancing a bad draw through the loan, you still lost the game on the turn 11 draws. I'd say that this was unlucky on your part, or perhaps bad draws previously had already left you stranded.

I usually try to avoid two loans because each loans needs to trash at least two copper to be in credit, and they just tend to draw each other for no credit at all. If you are looking for alternative plays I'd suggest that an early smugglers and/or apprentice would have been interesting, although I couldn't say with any certainty when you should have bought them!

[Reyk]

Thx for your comments.
I think smuggler is high risk/high reward. You have to gain it early as we are buying provinces so soon. It might have some use very late, if there is duchy dancing because of penultimate province rule. But any terminal is risky here.

I really don't like apprentice here. You might trash some additional copper on the way, but have to pass up on a minion. Trash only 1 estate and you are behind in case of a likely 4-4 province split. Upgrade would be much better here with the option of upgrading a very late conspirator into duchy.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I remember this game and I remember thinking how lucky I was to be playing second. I did think about starting to buy Provinces maybe a turn or two before I actually did, but I knew that, being in the second seat, I could safely delay by a turn or two to build up further. I was pretty confident I'd be able to buy Provinces for at least 4 consecutive turns, so I knew that if you DID start buying Provinces, I'd tie. If you didn't and I started first, I'd win.

So yeah, I think this was a good example of the second player having an advantage, but only because of your few bad shuffles early on and slightly less fortunate Loan play.

I was a bit surprised at your $4 Cellar buys though. I understand that Conspirators could end up being terminal if you haven't played 2 other actions first, but if you had the extra Conspirators you would have been more comfortable with using your Minions for cycling safe in the knowledge that you've still got buying power in your deck.

[Geronimoo]

The title of the post seems to suggest that this board would favor the second player and that is so not the case!!

It is true that there is a small advantage going second when there are no +buys on the board and both players are strictly going for the Provinces (just simulate BM - Basic Money against itself and keep the player order fixed). But as soon as the first player decides to buy Duchies as well he keeps his advantage (which is significant when Minions are involved because on average he will have 6 to the second player's 4).

[Reyk]

The title of the post seems to suggest that this board would favor the second player and that is so not the case!!

...

But as soon as the first player decides to buy Duchies as well he keeps his advantage (which is significant when Minions are involved because on average he will have 6 to the second player's 4).

Note that I put disadvantage in quotation marks. I think I've described why it's hard to play. This doesn't have to be a statistical disadvantage necessarily.
Anyway I don't think there is time to buy 6 minions on this board. Only advantage for first player I can see is a higher probability of attacking first, but the attack is very random anyway and besides this you might need 2$ early more.