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[Graystripe77]

Would someone be able to figure out if the odds for trashing 3 estates on turn 3-4 with warehouse chapel is better than Silver Chapel?

I've played with this combo before and i was wondering what the odds were

[philosophyguy]

The answer is that the probabilities are better, but I can't do the math to calculate just how much better.

In either case, you can trash all of the Estates if you draw the Chapel with 3 Estates.
In the warehouse case, you can also trash if you draw the Warehouse in the first 5 and any of the first 8 contain Ch-E-E-E
Or you draw Warehouse in the first 5 and the first 8 contain no more than 1 of Ch-E-E-E, and that one is the top of the reshuffle during the cleanup of turn 3.
Or if you draw the Warehouse in the second five and cards 6-12 contain Ch-E-E-E
Of if you draw the Warehouse in the second five and cards 6-12 contain 3 of Ch-E-E-E and card 13 (from the reshuffle) includes the last of those 4.

(Technically I need to tweak the wording to make clear that the warehouse cases are not double-counting cards 6-10 being W-Ch-E-E-E and probably a couple of other cases, but in any event it's clear that the odds are much better in the Warehouse case.)

[rod-]

You do have to ask yourself why you're so concerned with trashing all of your estates, though.  You're going to want to get rid of the coppers too.

Warehouse is also faster reaching that goal, fwiw.

[WanderingWinder]

I can't imagine that Warehouse/Chapel is almost ever better than Silver/Chapel. You've got to get enough money to be able to build up, and not getting that silver right away really slows you down. The quick warehouse also doesn't help you trash stuff THAT much faster. And for a while after you get that trimmed deck, the warehouse is basically worthless.

[rinkworks]

You do have to ask yourself why you're so concerned with trashing all of your estates, though.  You're going to want to get rid of the coppers too.

Yes, but if you draw your Chapel with your Estates, that means your next hand is going to be all those Coppers you missed, which will enable you a good buying turn with them before they get fed to the Chapel.  If you trash a bunch of Coppers first, even though it's still the right play, you're not going to be able to ramp up as much while you slim down.  In the worst case, you run into a turn where you draw Chapel with a Copper and can't trash it, because you still need it to buy those first couple Silvers with.

[Superdad]

/edit, it's not as bad as I initially thought, at least not the best-case scenario.

I.e.
Turn 1 - Buy chapel
Turn 2 - Buy warehouse, reshuffle
Turn 3 - Draw Ch, W, CCC. Play W, draw EEE, discard CCC. Chapel EEE. Draw CCCC (reshuffle), plus 1 more. Deck is 9 cards, draw pile is 4 cards.
Turn 4 - $5 (if you get a copper). If you get chapel or warehouse here, it's awkward. You won't warehouse. You'll have to chapel a single copper. Lets assume best-case, and you draw a copper. You buy a $5 here.
Turn 5 - Draw W, CH, C, C, reshuffle, plus one. Deck is 10 cards, draw pile is 5 cards. If you warehouse now, you will either chapel 3 coppers, 2 coppers (if you draw CC plus your $5 card), or have CCC$5 card hand. Chapeling 3 coppers is decent here, if your $5 is a "silver" such as montebank. Chappeling 2 coppers is worst-case scenario (you'd likely discard the chapel if you draw your $5, as CCC$5 is pretty good).

If we are looking at best-case, you are warehousing to a montebankCCC hand, and are doing pretty well, considering a 4/3 start. You are in a position to montebank him most of the next turns.

So best case scenario, this opening doesn't look too bad.


Worst-case scenario would obviously be W/Ch as the 11th/12th cards, shuffling into CCC for your hand, and warehousing into CCC. That's a complete disaster, but any chapel hand can do that.

Looking at a middle of the road example, warehouse would give you a higher probability of trashing estates on this and potentially your next chapel turn. After that, it's not dead, since it can cycle the now-dead chapel.

If it doesn't beat Chapel/Silver, my gut is that it's at least close. And I would say it's ahead if there's a powerful $4 or $5 (especially a +$ attack such as Militia/Montebank, where not having that silver in your deck is actually a good thing).

I can also see this as being good in a quick bishop rush, where the main goal is to trash down to a Bishop/Silver/Silver/Gold/Province deck as fast as possible. Getting a tight deck quickly is critical, and it doesn't need a whole lot of buying power. It only needs Silver/Silver/Copper/Bishop so that it gets the gold, then it's off to the races.

[rod-]

WW:  I really thought straight away that the warehouse/chapel opening would be significantly worse than chapel/silver.  I did a dozen tests just running up to big money and warehouse/chapel was on average .7 turns faster than chapel/silver and (more importantly) had more 5$ hands that could be used to buy things better than silver earlier in the game, on top of the faster shuffling.  A lot of it has to do with the utility of the warehouse during the midgame, when your deck consists of something like gold/gold/silver/silver/province/province/chapel/warehouse, letting you see your entire 8 card deck and get to 8$, but you're not likely to buy a warehouse on turn 9, so turn 2 seems like a decent plan.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I can also see this as being good in a quick bishop rush, where the main goal is to trash down to a Bishop/Silver/Silver/Gold/Province deck as fast as possible. Getting a tight deck quickly is critical, and it doesn't need a whole lot of buying power. It only needs Silver/Silver/Copper/Bishop so that it gets the gold, then it's off to the races.

I get the feeling you like this strategy?

[tko]

I was trying to find a game where Warehouse/Chapel was the opening, and I found this game.  It might not be typical but the Warehouse/Chapel player gets non-optimal draws after playing Warehouse and has to trash Estates one at a time.  Essentially, due to the hand-size reduction from Warehouse, trashing three cards at a time instead of four.  This non-optimal scenario may be a rare case, but the tempo slow-down of this downside is discerning.

Does anyone have a link to a game where it went well?  I'd like to see an example of the upside practically applied in game-time.

[DStu]

I was trying to find a game where Warehouse/Chapel was the opening, and I found this game.  It might not be typical but the Warehouse/Chapel player gets non-optimal draws after playing Warehouse and has to trash Estates one at a time.  Essentially, due to the hand-size reduction from Warehouse, trashing three cards at a time instead of four.  This non-optimal scenario may be a rare case, but the tempo slow-down of this downside is discerning.

Does anyone have a link to a game where it went well?  I'd like to see an example of the upside practically applied in game-time.

Seems like in this case the mistake was not so much the Warehouse but the Chapel. Warehouse itself makes trashing less important, and sprinting with tactician+coppersmith to 4 provinces by turn 9, I don't think you can beat this with Chapel. With or without warehouse.
Edit: Money-Graph also looks funny. Exactly 4 times more than $4.

[Superdad]

I can also see this as being good in a quick bishop rush, where the main goal is to trash down to a Bishop/Silver/Silver/Gold/Province deck as fast as possible. Getting a tight deck quickly is critical, and it doesn't need a whole lot of buying power. It only needs Silver/Silver/Copper/Bishop so that it gets the gold, then it's off to the races.

I get the feeling you like this strategy?

Ha, I suppose I do bring it up a lot. It's definitely a strategy that I like to keep in the back of my head. I find it's a very potent counter-strategy to someone that "gets too cute". If they start building this elaborate engine (or I sniff it out that they plan on doing so), if I have enough trashing, I'll audible into this strat, even in colony games. Without a hand-reducing attack or cursing attack, this strat gets rid of 8 provinces in about 16-18 turns for roughly 45-50 points. It's very hard to get 5 colonies in the same timeframe.

Just as an FYI, I loaded up this board (Warehouse, Chapel, Bishop) kingdom and played about 10 solitaire games with it at lunch. It is a very solid opening in that deck. I would suspect it's solid in any deck that really values a razor thin deck as fast as possible (i.e. any 5-card combo deck).

In my 10 games I ended the game on 8 provinces (solitaire) by an average of 17.2 turns. That's pretty quick. Note also that every province they buy speeds up the end of the game by 1 full turn (since this deck does the exact same thing 8 turns in a row).

I really enjoy the games that go like this:

Turn 1 - Buy Chapel
Turn 2 - Buy Warehouse
Turn 3 - Chapel 4 cards
Turn 4 - Warehouse and Chapel rest of estates.
Turn 5 - CCC Ch W , buy silver     It goes like this every single time you draw chapel Turn 3, Warehouse turn 4.

[Geronimoo]

I was trying to find a game where Warehouse/Chapel was the opening, and I found this game. ...

I've never seen theory's strategy before, but it's extremely strong for basically a 3 card deck deck (2 Coppersmith, Tactician) getting 4 Provinces consistently in <12 turns:

Code: [Select]

<player name="Coppersmith/Tactician">
   <buy name="Province">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Tactician"/>
         <operator type="greaterThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="0.0"/>
      </condition>
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Coppersmith"/>
         <operator type="greaterOrEqualThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="2.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Duchy">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInSupply" attribute="Province"/>
         <operator type="smallerOrEqualThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="5.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Estate">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInSupply" attribute="Province"/>
         <operator type="smallerOrEqualThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="1.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Tactician">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Tactician"/>
         <operator type="smallerThan" />
         <right type="constant" attribute="1.0"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Coppersmith">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Coppersmith"/>
         <operator type="smallerOrEqualThan" />
         <right type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Warehouse"/>
      </condition>
   </buy>
   <buy name="Warehouse">
      <condition>
         <left type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Warehouse"/>
         <operator type="smallerOrEqualThan" />
         <right type="countCardsInDeck" attribute="Province"/>
         <extra_operation type="plus" attribute="1.0" />
      </condition>
   </buy>
</player>

It beats just about any other Province oriented strategy, but gets crushed by attacking strategies.

[tko]

I've never seen theory's strategy before, but it's extremely strong for basically a 3 card deck deck (2 Coppersmith, Tactician) getting 4 Provinces consistently in <12 turns:
...
It beats just about any other Province oriented strategy, but gets crushed by attacking strategies.

That Coppersmith strategy blew my mind.  Coppersmith is a card I've largely ignored.  I'd be interested in seeing other uses of Coppersmith as I've only tried the card a couple times and was usually underwhelmed.

[Superdad]

Indeed, Tactician works great with anything that wants you to have a ton of cards (coppersmith, Bank, etc).


Regarding the game itself, look at turn 3.

Plays Warehouse, and has to chapel only 1 estate. That sums up his game right there. Dude was smacked in the face by the shuffler. Regarding the actual victor, the tactician/coppersmith strategy was brilliant, but that shouldn't take away from the potential of warehouse/chapel.

Now, on that board, is there a strategy that wants a razor thin deck ASAP? No, not at all. No super strong attack you want to play every turn. No 5-card combo deck. On that kingdom, Silver/Chapel is a way better opening. I would have actually probably countered with a Duke/Duchy strategy. The coppersmith/tactician deck is going to have a HARD time buying all 8 provinces. I think countering that deck with a Duke/Duchy/Warehouse/Tactician game is probably the better plan.

That being said, it's easy being a Monday morning quarterback (and that's even if the counter works!).

[Thisisnotasmile]

I've never seen theory's strategy before, but it's extremely strong for basically a 3 card deck deck (2 Coppersmith, Tactician) getting 4 Provinces consistently in <12 turns:
...
It beats just about any other Province oriented strategy, but gets crushed by attacking strategies.

That Coppersmith strategy blew my mind.  Coppersmith is a card I've largely ignored.  I'd be interested in seeing other uses of Coppersmith as I've only tried the card a couple times and was usually underwhelmed.

I played a game earlier where I pretty much dominated with Fishing Village/Wharf/Coppersmith. Granted, my opponent wasn't particularly high ranked, but my strategy just seemd solid, regardless of my opponent. I can post up the log when it goes up on CR.com if you want? I think I ended up 3-piling it as there was Talisman support too, and coupled with my Wharves, it allowed me to empty pretty much any cheap-ish pile I wanted whenever I wanted.

[chwhite]

I've never seen theory's strategy before, but it's extremely strong for basically a 3 card deck deck (2 Coppersmith, Tactician) getting 4 Provinces consistently in <12 turns:
...
It beats just about any other Province oriented strategy, but gets crushed by attacking strategies.

That Coppersmith strategy blew my mind.  Coppersmith is a card I've largely ignored.  I'd be interested in seeing other uses of Coppersmith as I've only tried the card a couple times and was usually underwhelmed.

I like it with Apothecary.  This is probably the purest example of straight Apothecary/Coppersmith I can find (obviously, the Apprentice helps too): http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110411-202217-f1a5dd18.html