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Author Topic: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards  (Read 63328 times)

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blueblimp

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 2/4 posted
« Reply #150 on: August 05, 2012, 12:13:05 pm »
0

But here you're comparing it to Peddler. If you count the treasure Venture draws as "seen", then you're valuing the Venture itself at just $1, like Peddler. I agree that Venture is more green-resilient than Peddler.

But usually Venture is viewed as a strictly-better-than-Silver treasure, not as a Peddler variant. That's why it matters how you account for the value of the card that Venture draws, because we're comparing to Silver/Gold, not to Peddler.

I again point you to the extreme case with 10 Ventures vs 10 Silvers (or 10 Golds or 10 Coppers -- your choice since the actual coin value on the card is irrelevant to the nature of the resilience to greening). You can't deny that there is something going on here. You're just confusing yourself trying to view things in different, incomplete ways. If you talk about the Venture taking on the value of the cards it draws and assume you never shuffle, and all kinds of other crazy assumptions, you just obscure what Venture is actually doing. That's why it's useful to think of extreme cases where nothing else is going on.
After thought, I'm convinced now that the important thing about 10 Ventures is whiffing, not shuffling. (Reshuffling matters, but for a different reason, and it's less important.) Instead, compare 10 Ventures + 5 Copper against 15 Golds, so that the Ventures never whiff. In this case, I don't see how one is intuitively any more green-resilient than the other. (In the first case, the average value of Venture is 1 + 9/(5+1) + 1*5/5, or $3.5, a little more than the Golds to help balance the Coppers.)

Given that in a normal deck, Venture should never whiff, I don't see how it's useful to consider cases where Venture whiffs.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 12:14:37 pm by blueblimp »
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Robz888

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #151 on: August 05, 2012, 01:24:31 pm »
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Part 3 is basically right on the money, although I continue to think Upgrade is fairly overrated. Look, I realize it's not a bad card. It's a helpful card, it's something you pick up when the Curses are flying, definitely, and to build an engine. But two things: 1) You actually need more than 1 Upgrade to make a difference, and 2) there are often better options. Remake is just doing the job much better, and more cheaply. And at the same price point, you have Apprentice, which is a whole lot better than Upgrade.

I am glad to see Merchant Ship, Haggler, and Duke get their dues. Each deserves probably a couple slots better (at the expense of Lab and Stables), but they're about right.
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Tdog

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #152 on: August 05, 2012, 03:35:17 pm »
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I think duke has gone from being slightly underrated to overrated. To get all 8 dukes and duchies that's 16 turns plus maybe 5-8 more of not getting them. That's at least 21 turns. A good engine should be able to get all the provinces in 15ish? Maybe a little more, but at turn 15 the duke player either has all duchies and a few dukes, or like 5 duchies and 4 dukes. That's only 38 points, 10 short of the province player. And then it's very hard to pull off in a colony game. In the absence of cursers or a strong engine duke will do well.
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DWetzel

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #153 on: August 05, 2012, 03:43:39 pm »
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You want to get all the provinces bought by turn 15?  You're either starting at turn 8 (and never missing a turn along the way), or you're buying multiple provinces a turn.  And sure, guess what, IF you can do that, Duke's probably a bad buy.

It's far more likely that you have roughly 5-6 provinces by then, and now have a bunch of green stuff in your deck that's making it much harder to get the last 2 provinces without help, while every card the Duke player buys is worth at least as much as those Provinces you're trying to finish off.
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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #154 on: August 05, 2012, 03:46:47 pm »
+2

I think duke has gone from being slightly underrated to overrated. To get all 8 dukes and duchies that's 16 turns plus maybe 5-8 more of not getting them. That's at least 21 turns. A good engine should be able to get all the provinces in 15ish? Maybe a little more, but at turn 15 the duke player either has all duchies and a few dukes, or like 5 duchies and 4 dukes. That's only 38 points, 10 short of the province player. And then it's very hard to pull off in a colony game. In the absence of cursers or a strong engine duke will do well.

8 Provinces in 15 turns? Yeesh. Only the very top tier of engine boards are gonna get you 8 in that few turns. No, its probably uncommon to get all 8 provinces before maybe turn 19 or 20, unless there's a really strong engine. In which case, yeah you should go for the engine. And the duke player doesnt need all 8 of both dukes and duchies. 7 duchies and 4 dukes is enough to cover 8 provinces. so 11 cards at $5 vs 8 cards at $8. That's why duke is so strong.

Also i disagree with chwhite's assessment of duke, obvs.
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Tdog

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #155 on: August 05, 2012, 03:51:21 pm »
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We can assume that the province player would notice the duke player and take a duchie or two away. And duke  is difficult to pull off in colony games.
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Tdog

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #156 on: August 05, 2012, 03:52:49 pm »
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I think duke has gone from being slightly underrated to overrated. To get all 8 dukes and duchies that's 16 turns plus maybe 5-8 more of not getting them. That's at least 21 turns. A good engine should be able to get all the provinces in 15ish? Maybe a little more, but at turn 15 the duke player either has all duchies and a few dukes, or like 5 duchies and 4 dukes. That's only 38 points, 10 short of the province player. And then it's very hard to pull off in a colony game. In the absence of cursers or a strong engine duke will do well.

8 Provinces in 15 turns? Yeesh. Only the very top tier of engine boards are gonna get you 8 in that few turns. No, its probably uncommon to get all 8 provinces before maybe turn 19 or 20, unless there's a really strong engine. In which case, yeah you should go for the engine. And the duke player doesnt need all 8 of both dukes and duchies. 7 duchies and 4 dukes is enough to cover 8 provinces. so 11 cards at $5 vs 8 cards at $8. That's why duke is so strong.

Also i disagree with chwhite's assessment of duke, obvs.

But those extra cards from duke will take a toll on your deck without support.
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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #157 on: August 05, 2012, 03:53:21 pm »
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Yes, the provinces player can and usually should steal a couple duchies. But those extra duchies slow the game down. If we split the duchies 6/2 I only need 6 dukes now to make up the difference in points. So i need 12 cards costing 5 to match your 8 costing 8 and 2 costing 5.

And yeah, dukes are terrible in colony games. Which happen about 15% of the time (and are soon about to happen far less). But really, most alt vp's are terrible with colonies.
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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #158 on: August 05, 2012, 03:54:50 pm »
0

I think duke has gone from being slightly underrated to overrated. To get all 8 dukes and duchies that's 16 turns plus maybe 5-8 more of not getting them. That's at least 21 turns. A good engine should be able to get all the provinces in 15ish? Maybe a little more, but at turn 15 the duke player either has all duchies and a few dukes, or like 5 duchies and 4 dukes. That's only 38 points, 10 short of the province player. And then it's very hard to pull off in a colony game. In the absence of cursers or a strong engine duke will do well.

8 Provinces in 15 turns? Yeesh. Only the very top tier of engine boards are gonna get you 8 in that few turns. No, its probably uncommon to get all 8 provinces before maybe turn 19 or 20, unless there's a really strong engine. In which case, yeah you should go for the engine. And the duke player doesnt need all 8 of both dukes and duchies. 7 duchies and 4 dukes is enough to cover 8 provinces. so 11 cards at $5 vs 8 cards at $8. That's why duke is so strong.

Also i disagree with chwhite's assessment of duke, obvs.

But those extra cards from duke will take a toll on your deck without support.

Yeah, you usually need SOME support. I'm not saying you can blindly go duke every game. But you don't need much support. And yeah you've got a few extra green cards, but hitting $5 is SO SO SO SO SO much easier than hitting $8.
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Tdog

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #159 on: August 05, 2012, 04:02:51 pm »
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When duke shines, it really shines. But it's almost unusable in 15% of games, and can be easily beat in maybe 10% of games with good engines? A card that is beat in a quarter of games is not the number 18 $5 card, which has alot of elite cards.
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DWetzel

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #160 on: August 05, 2012, 04:08:39 pm »
+1

So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #161 on: August 05, 2012, 04:16:23 pm »
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So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

I would actually probably say it's dominant a bit less that 75% of the time. Maybe like 60%? So ok, you only buy it 60% of the time, but it's so incredibly powerful when you do want it, that has to count for quite a bit. Duke certainly doesn't belong in the top 5, and probably not the top 10, but I'd bump it up to make about #15.
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chwhite

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #162 on: August 05, 2012, 04:19:58 pm »
+1

I think duke has gone from being slightly underrated to overrated. To get all 8 dukes and duchies that's 16 turns plus maybe 5-8 more of not getting them. That's at least 21 turns. A good engine should be able to get all the provinces in 15ish? Maybe a little more, but at turn 15 the duke player either has all duchies and a few dukes, or like 5 duchies and 4 dukes. That's only 38 points, 10 short of the province player. And then it's very hard to pull off in a colony game. In the absence of cursers or a strong engine duke will do well.

8 Provinces in 15 turns? Yeesh. Only the very top tier of engine boards are gonna get you 8 in that few turns. No, its probably uncommon to get all 8 provinces before maybe turn 19 or 20, unless there's a really strong engine. In which case, yeah you should go for the engine. And the duke player doesnt need all 8 of both dukes and duchies. 7 duchies and 4 dukes is enough to cover 8 provinces. so 11 cards at $5 vs 8 cards at $8. That's why duke is so strong.

Also i disagree with chwhite's assessment of duke, obvs.

You're assuming the Province player can't poach a couple Duchies, and either deal with them or trash them for benefit.  An anti-Duke player is usually going to have to engage in a little bit of denial, but engine plus denial can often beat Duke, for sufficiently good values of "engine".

Here's a few examples of anti-Duke play carrying the day:

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120420-112950-6d524d5b.html : Obviously a Minion engine is going to prefer Provinces to Dukes because otherwise it'd choke on green, but does that mean you should just skip the Minions and go Duke?  Not with Swindler around.  I don't even have to buy any Duchies here, I Swindle three of them away and that does the job nicely.

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120615-064001-65ef9107.html : Governors make the Province route just plain faster here.  I try to take all your advice and go Duke, it fails spectacularly, back to not doing that.

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120605-215708-d3625e79.html : Another time I try to Duke and fail.  My opponent merely needs to poach two Duchies, and can then take his time draining the Province stack.

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120612-105400-6ec8040a.html : Also great against Dukes: Saboteur.  I'm certain that I would have won this game had my connection not been dropped.

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110718-150855-ff59e5fd.html : Duke can outscore Provinces, but not Colonies.  Not even on hardcore Big Money boards like this one, which featured no trashing, attack, or card draw worth a damn.

...

I would like to hear more from the people who had Highway and Merchant Ship rated highly; I suspect that has more potential to be an enlightening discussion than more Duke chatter now.

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Tdog

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #163 on: August 05, 2012, 04:22:53 pm »
0

So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.



Duke is bought in 28% of games, and in those games has a less then 1 win rate with, equal to cards such as feast, fortune teller, and Royal seal. You, Jonts, have a -2 effect with Duke. It is #18 of the 5 cost cards, which is a formidable set of cards. Oh, and I'll PM you the link to my newsletter, it comes out every week. 
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chwhite

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #164 on: August 05, 2012, 04:24:27 pm »
0

Yes, the provinces player can and usually should steal a couple duchies. But those extra duchies slow the game down. If we split the duchies 6/2 I only need 6 dukes now to make up the difference in points. So i need 12 cards costing 5 to match your 8 costing 8 and 2 costing 5.

And yeah, dukes are terrible in colony games. Which happen about 15% of the time (and are soon about to happen far less). But really, most alt vp's are terrible with colonies.

Most alt VPs are WAY less terrible than Duke in Colony games.  Gardens and Silk Roads still have the potential for super-fast 3-pile rushes; Vineyard is often a card you can pick up alongside Colony; Tunnel is obviously worse as a late-game "why the hell not" buy, but its good combos are still worthwhile.

Also, Duke is a game changer way way less than 75% of the time.  If I thought it was good that often, obviously I'd have it higher.  I do think it's less bad than I used to have it, but I'm still certain to go for it less than half of the time.
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ChocophileBenj

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #165 on: August 05, 2012, 04:25:56 pm »
0

Festival above Bazaar :D
Upgrade, Margrave and Apprentice surprisingely low, Duke and Merchant Ship at least at reasonable places.
No cards overrated, I think.
So the ten remaining are : Mountebank, Ghost Ship, Minion, Witch, Torturer (attacks), IGG, H.Party, Wharf, Governor, Tactician (I found back this last card thanks to this list : http://dominion.xseb74.com/?page=Liste_des_cartes#cartes ). What about betting on the top 10 ? Will we still have Witch and Mountebank on top ? (I think so to Mountebank !!!)
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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #166 on: August 05, 2012, 04:26:05 pm »
0

You're assuming the Province player can't poach a couple Duchies, and either deal with them or trash them for benefit.  An anti-Duke player is usually going to have to engage in a little bit of denial, but engine plus denial can often beat Duke, for sufficiently good values of "engine".

I'm not assuming anything of the sort. I'm not some sort of duke apologist, and I know it isn't dominant all the time and there are good ways to deal with it, TFB being one of the best. It's not wort it on a decent percentage of boards, but when it is worth it, it warps the game to such a large extent and I think that justifies it's high position.

I would like to hear more from the people who had Highway and Merchant Ship rated highly; I suspect that has more potential to be an enlightening discussion than more Duke chatter now.

Highway is too high, but I'll defend merchant ship. It's really good in Duke games!
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DWetzel

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #167 on: August 05, 2012, 04:27:36 pm »
0

So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

I would actually probably say it's dominant a bit less that 75% of the time. Maybe like 60%? So ok, you only buy it 60% of the time, but it's so incredibly powerful when you do want it, that has to count for quite a bit. Duke certainly doesn't belong in the top 5, and probably not the top 10, but I'd bump it up to make about #15.

Sure, and I'd even put the "dominant" percentage a fair bit lower than you, with a largish gray area where "this might be better but it's close" in there somewhere as well.

Either way, we agree that there's no way on earth that there are 18 cards that are significantly more important than that.
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DWetzel

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #168 on: August 05, 2012, 04:34:35 pm »
+1

When duke shines, it really shines. But it's almost unusable in 15% of games, and can be easily beat in maybe 10% of games with good engines? A card that is beat in a quarter of games is not the number 18 $5 card, which has alot of elite cards.

I guess the bottom line here is, which "elite $5 cards" are getting the short shrift here?  The next 6 cards in line are (from #19 - #24): Festival, Highway, Bazaar, Jester, Upgrade, and Merchant Ship.  It's not like any of those cards aren't completely ignorable/useless on a significant percentage of boards too -- and the boards they ARE useful on, they're basically never ever a MUST buy.

PS: Just LOL at the "Jonts has a big - effect with Duke".  I have a -1.12 Effect With for Chapel, and a +2.84 Effect Without.  Clearly, Chapel is a worthless card when compared to, say, Duchess (+1.01 with, -0.78 without).

PPS: Of course, both of those cards pale in comparison to the mighty power of Copper -- EW= 2.20, EWo = -1.05.  I'm thinking of eschewing other cards and just buying a bunch of Coppers thanks to this revelation.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 04:40:24 pm by DWetzel »
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jonts26

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #169 on: August 05, 2012, 04:36:26 pm »
+1

So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.



Duke is bought in 28% of games, and in those games has a less then 1 win rate with, equal to cards such as feast, fortune teller, and Royal seal. You, Jonts, have a -2 effect with Duke. It is #18 of the 5 cost cards, which is a formidable set of cards. Oh, and I'll PM you the link to my newsletter, it comes out every week.

Well we need to take those particular stats with a grain of salt. The overall stats involve the entire community at large, which involves a lot of low level play. As for my personal stats, well how about these: my effect with Mountebank is -0.76, my effect with hunting party is -.47. Clearly those cards suck too!
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chwhite

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #170 on: August 05, 2012, 04:48:30 pm »
0

When duke shines, it really shines. But it's almost unusable in 15% of games, and can be easily beat in maybe 10% of games with good engines? A card that is beat in a quarter of games is not the number 18 $5 card, which has alot of elite cards.

I guess the bottom line here is, which "elite $5 cards" are getting the short shrift here?  The next 6 cards in line are (from #19 - #24): Festival, Highway, Bazaar, Jester, Upgrade, and Merchant Ship.  It's not like any of those cards aren't completely ignorable/useless on a significant percentage of boards too -- and the boards they ARE useful on, they're basically never ever a MUST buy.

I definitely disagree with this:

* If you have good reason to go engine and Bazaar/Festival is the only Village (or Festival is the only +Buy) then they're must-buys for sure.
* Highway is very often a dead card but sometimes the key to incredibly strong combos, so it can be a must-buy.  It's overrated though.
* Jester is not the best of attacks, but virtually all attacks have situations where you ignore them at your peril.
* Okay, perhaps Upgrade is rarely a must-buy.  But it is so, so frequently useful.
* Yeah, Merchant Ship is useless on a significant % of boards, and even when it's good it doesn't really ever warp the game; I'd put Duke above it.  But that's because Merchant Ship is about ten slots too high to begin with.

If you go lower, I'd say that (even assuming Duke is better than I, perhaps unfairly, think it isn't) City is definitely a card which is buyable more often than Duke, and just as game-changing when it's good.  City was underrated pretty badly here, to be fair.
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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #171 on: August 05, 2012, 04:56:15 pm »
0

I had duke around 30, which may be a little low. But if your going to take the game changing argument then City, Jester, and Highway can be game changing. As is a turn 1/2 trading post. And festival, bazaar, and rabble all are parts of a good engine. Rabbles attack can particularly hurt dukes.
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werothegreat

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #172 on: August 05, 2012, 04:58:01 pm »
0

Yeah, how did City get rated so low?  In any engine-favorable board, or any board where at least one pile is sure to empty, you ignore City at your peril.
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chwhite

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #173 on: August 05, 2012, 05:00:18 pm »
0

So a card that's anywhere from useful to game-changingly awesome 75% of the time doesn't belong at #18 on this list?

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.



Duke is bought in 28% of games, and in those games has a less then 1 win rate with, equal to cards such as feast, fortune teller, and Royal seal. You, Jonts, have a -2 effect with Duke. It is #18 of the 5 cost cards, which is a formidable set of cards. Oh, and I'll PM you the link to my newsletter, it comes out every week.

Well we need to take those particular stats with a grain of salt. The overall stats involve the entire community at large, which involves a lot of low level play. As for my personal stats, well how about these: my effect with Mountebank is -0.76, my effect with hunting party is -.47. Clearly those cards suck too!

Well, all of the top players have a negative effect with for Mountebank, I remember looking at this for a Tournament-defending post awhile back.  It is so strong, so obvious in its strength, and so deadly to engines, that it very often erases the skill differential between players. 

You buy Mountebank and Hunting Party about 90 percent of the time and Duke 36 percent of the time; I think the gain %s are probably more robust and relevant than the effects with/without here.  Because, yeah, maybe the low effects with just means that Duke is an anti-skill card rather than a weak card.
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To discard or not to discard?  That is the question.

chwhite

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Re: The Best Dominion Cards List 2012 Ed.2: $5 cards Part 3/4 posted
« Reply #174 on: August 05, 2012, 05:03:10 pm »
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Highway is too high, but I'll defend merchant ship. It's really good in Duke games!

:P

I do sort of see that, actually.  But it can't be that good with Dukes because it conflicts at the $5 price point, no?
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To discard or not to discard?  That is the question.
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