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Praion

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Request : Island
« on: July 22, 2011, 04:23:39 pm »
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Hello fellow Dominion-Nerds

I would really like your oppinion on Islands.
When should you start to buy then ? Should you use them to "trash" curses when there is no other trashing available ?
Should i start Island Silver ?
Is collecting Islands early totally stupid ?

Thanks guys
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2011, 05:04:06 pm »
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I'm not a huge Islands fan so you'd be better off listening to other people than, me but...

Quote
Should you use them to "trash" curses when there is no other trashing available ?

If there is no other way to get the curses out of your deck, go for it. A curse on the island mat is one less clogging up your hand. If there is other trashing available though, then I'd prefer to keep the curses in my deck and potentially get them out completely.

Also, Mountebank could be an exception. If the curses are on the mat, you can't defend against more curses and coppers.
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JambalayaHut

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2011, 06:05:57 pm »
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I also rarely buy islands. Like the OP, I'm also curious to see if someone has had success with them. I don't buy islands very often because:

-It's a terribly slow way of getting coppers and estates out of your deck. All other trashers have some other benefit that is useful in the early game (like masquerade, trading post) or trash faster (chapel, steward)
-Its a terminal so you probably won't be able to use other power $5 actions
-when you use an island you lose two cards out of your hand (the island and the card you are setting it aside with) weakening your current hand, which could potentially lower your chance to buy a $5 powerful card immediately and use it in your next reshuffle (i.e. if you draw silver island copper copper copper, if you island a copper you get $4 instead of $5)

Only time I buy islands is where its the only trasher or if the opponent seems to be massing islands, in which case I will buy maybe 2 and leave the rest to him. But I rarely find that buying islands is the best strat on the board.
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ARTjoMS

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2011, 06:29:41 pm »
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Yeah, it can be reasonable opening providing there are powerful 2-cost cards, because if you draw (Island -Copper-Copper-Estate-Estate), then you will lose a buy resulting in a snowball effect. If you hit Island with 3 estates or island without estates you may fall behind or maybe not.

Sometimes you can make your deck so that you hit 12 money every turn with multiple buys, then you buy province and island with an idea to island that province away in next turn and keep this algorithm further.
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DG

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2011, 07:11:18 pm »
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The simulator says island/silver then buying an envoy is a little better than envoy/silver, with a bigger margin in colony games. This shows what the opening island does in terms of clearing out an initial estate and removing itself from the deck, something that other trashing cards cannot do.

The weakness of an island opening is that you might be stuck spending only 3 or 4 for a few turns. If you're only buying an island because the other low cost cards are weaker then you might see that same problem repeating itself.
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Zaphod

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2011, 05:37:30 pm »
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It's a good card to grab with Ironworks/University/Workshop late in the game, as you can at least get a couple VPs.  Scout makes it a bit better, as you're more likely to put it together with a Victory card.  When you're getting Saboteured really heavily, it's sometimes useful as a means of keeping Provinces safe.  I might grab one or two early, if there's no trashing and I don't care for the other $3-4 cards.  I'm not sure it's ever essential.
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Fuu

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2011, 07:41:28 pm »
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I like Island a lot as an opener. It is at its best with Ironworks though, and I would play this at any time in the game. I would add that it is good with Trade Route, and I like that opening.

It may remove cards from your hand slower than more brutal trashers, but Islanding Estates sets aside those 3VP, and also returns them to your deck for Gardens-style points later if relevant. If you can't Island an Estate in an early turn, I'd still Island a Copper just to get rid of it, or even Island an Island (with regret). Leaving them in your deck isn't getting you anywhere fast. Comparing it to Chapel (Steward) isn't fair though - nothing (almost nothing) compares well against Chapel (Steward)!
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2011, 11:46:23 am »
+1

Unlike most of the other people in this thread, I love Island. In fact, it's the card with my highest +%. Is it that good? No - I like it too much. But it's really good for a big money strategy, and I play big money variants clearly more often and probably a touch better than most all of the rest of the top players (it's the action chains where I don't shine - I'm okay there, but not spectacular).
Objectively, Island is probably a decent to good 4, but not great. They're much worse in games with colony. It's often good to open with one, as you'll have very good chances of islanding an estate on the first reshuffle. And I love grabbing them early and in large numbers, though this isn't probably the best. Something to note is that if you win the island race 5-3, that's better than a duchy for the endgame. If you win it 7-1, that neutralizes a 5-3 province split.
But mostly you want Islands in the greening stage, particularly in a deck that builds a lead and then stalls out a bit. They actually go great with a card like chapel. You start going green much earlier than a normal Chapel/BM, and then when you can't make 8 anymore, grab an island. You can also island your chapel once it's dead. Don't think of them so much as a pure trasher - they're not any better tahn trade route for that, and trade route is horrible as a pure trasher. But they do help with your VP count in the end, and having this tiebreaker is pretty big.
So, overall, I'd say it's often good to buy one early, then grab them late, when greening. They work best in big money decks, or with a medium (steward, say) trasher or cycler (like warehouse). They don't work well with action chains, and don't combo with much but money. But they're pretty darn good there.
For a money deck, they're better than caravans, almost all the time. If you're playing for a combo, they're almost always gonna be worse, but even then you MIGHT (look at the board) pick ONE up in the opening and then go for them preferrable to duchies in the endgame, at least until late endgame when the one extra VP is critical.

Agrisios

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2011, 12:03:45 pm »
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But isn't Island terrible slow as on opener? I'm not sure yet, but intuitively I would say they are of better use later on when going green.
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DG

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2011, 12:57:18 pm »
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Quote
Objectively, Island is probably a decent to good 4, but not great. They're much worse in games with colony.

Would you like to qualify that a little? I know the Geronimo simulator shows that smithy+treasure becomes a little stronger in a province game after buying an initial island, but stronger still in a colony game.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2011, 09:08:53 pm »
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That's just my gut impressions. I may well be wrong. But I also think that using this one strategy is not so great a way of judging my general, blanket statement (there are always exceptions). Also, what are you testing this stuff against to say that it's stronger in a colony game?

Davio

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2011, 04:50:13 am »
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My simple simulations have shown that:

BM Island beats BMU: ~55% - 45%
Col BM Island loses to Colony BMU: ~40% - 60%

2 Islands seems to be the optimum in both cases.

Be careful when creating the Buy rule: Count the number of Islands in the Supply (e.g. #Islands in Supply > 6 = buy 2) and use that as a guideline, not the number of Islands in your deck, since they move out of your deck when you play them.


BM Island gets creamed by both BM Militia and BM Envoy (25%-75%) and this demonstrates the problem with Island. While it's not a bad card per se, there are often better alternatives.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2011, 04:56:03 am by Davio »
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2011, 10:55:24 am »
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You can't really evaluate island based on a pure one card strat like that, especially when those are two of the most powerful 4-cost big money partners. Usually you don't want to buy islands and only money, but buy an island or two and then switch to another strategy, i.e. in this case one island and then envoy, one island and then militia (though those two are already such good openers that I'm not sure it would be worth it). But also, much of island's power is in the endgame, and that's actually going to be quite complicated to simulate correctly.
This does, however, support my initial thoughts about it being better without colonies.

Superdad

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2011, 11:46:49 am »
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I always thought of Island as a card that I buy one of early, then buy late with extra +buys. I think midgame islands are probably pretty bad, as they both rely on luck in drawing them with your green  before you are really green, and they take up a terminal in doing so.

My (internal) rule for island is to buy one if there isn't a better $4, then to ignore them until the endgame.

I think the tempo-loss in buying tons of islands in the early game is too easy for the opponent to counter. For example, I think a board with an explosive combo deck could really take advantage of the tempo loss of an opponent that islands too heavily early on. You are essentially playing a 3-card hand and using your terminal... to trash 1 card (and gain 2 VP i suppose - if that matters). That's a big kick to the junk in terms of early game tempo. It basically locks you out of an early gold. Doing so once can be okay, but any more than that just feels completely wrong to me. Think of the opportunity cost.

The more I think of it, the more I think that you'd be better off buying a silver over even a single island in a game where speed matters at all. Perhaps if there is literally no other trasher in the game, getting rid of an estate or two could compound itself enough times to offset the early kick to the nuts in your tempo. But if there's other trashing, I think you are just setting yourself back too far in tempo.



/edit

I think the correct way to think of island is comparing it to monument. The longer the game lasts, the more the compounding effect of your tempo loss will be. Also the lesser the effect of your short-term VP gain is.

So if you go heavy islands early, you should be looking to end the game as fast as possible. Likely on some kind of 3-pile with island and something else (familiar/curse/island, village/island/monument, or worker's villiage/peddler/island with talisman support)... anything that gains a short term VP lead  and is stronger if the game ends quickly - and has the potential to 3-pile quickly.

For this reason, I think any island simulation that tries to buy provinces is likely a strategical error?

I think as you buy the island (or islands!), you should be thinking... "I need this game to end as fast as humanly possible" and every decision you make from there-on-out should be towards 3-piling while gaining early VP.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2011, 11:56:40 am by Superdad »
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2011, 02:10:46 pm »
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I totally disagree with most of superdad's analysis. Picking up one early should generally speed rather than slow over the long haul. And getting a lot early isn't bad except for the opportunity cost, so if there's some way to gain, then it's great. But really islands should NOT be the centerpiece of a 3 pile strategy. This will just be too weak. I've won more than a few games by having a big island lead and then losing the province split. People don't watch out for this. You can take that VP lead into the endgame and use it to good effect; it's not just for quick endings.
It's certainly not an error to program a sim to have island and province buys. It probably is an error to expect a sim to understand the nuances of endgame play to facilitate the island buys at the right times.

Blooki

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2011, 03:17:41 pm »
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I don't have a strong opinion on Island one way or the other. I do know that in the absence of Sea Hag, Ambassador, Steward, Chapel, relevant Potion and Tournament, I always go for the Ironworks/Island trick. This auto-pilot play should probably undergo some rethinking. Do any of you choose against an Ironworks opening on an Island board for any other reason?
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Wingnut

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2011, 08:28:41 pm »
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Unless there is something I just have to have out there, I generally open with island and then ignore it unless ironworks is out there. That has already been discussed here exhaustively.

Of course if there is sort of heavy trashing card available (or really any trashing card) island seems to have diminishing returns in comparision and should be avoided. After the open, I only really buy it if the other player is totally ignoring them as the lead can be great or if my opponent goes after all of them in which case I will buy one more just to mitigate the point disadvantage.

In colony games, I just avoid it entirely though. There is almost no situation where the points matter enough to make the buy worth it.
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Davio

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2011, 03:30:18 am »
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I have run the Island simulations against BM Militia and BM Envoy again, this time each Island variant was following the same strategy as the other after an initial Island.

While the Island variant wins by a small margin against its pure Militia counterpart (50-48-2), it loses to its Envoy brother (43-54-3).


Guess I have to rethink my Island strategy; it's a card I loved when I was just beginning, then hated when I played more, now I may like it again. :)
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Superdad

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2011, 02:01:28 pm »
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That isn't really a surprise. The Big Money decks aren't trashing anything at all. The longer the games lasts the more times that one estate is being drawn (or not drawn). It doesn't surprise me that the island game does better in the slower (militia) game... because more turns pass where that one estate isn't drawn. The effect compounds.

However, compare this instead:

1) Island (1), Militia, Big Money
2) Any other trasher (say moneylender, steward, etc... or for fairness a $4 trasher like remodel), Militia, Big Money.

Deck 1 does Island, Silver, then plays Militia/big money
Deck 2 does Remodel, Silver, then plays Miltia/big money

I bet the latter dominates hard.

I'd be careful stating that Island/Miltia/Big money beats Militia/Big money, and concluding from it that island is an okay opening buy. It's a sample size of 1 and there are other things at play than island vs no island. It has more to do with trashing vs no trashing in a long(ish) game.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2011, 02:44:28 pm »
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I'd take the Island deck over the remodel deck pretty much any day of the week. I don't find remodel to be all that strong at all.

Davio

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Re: Request : Island
« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2011, 04:43:08 pm »
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I've run some quick tests and it seems Island is a clear favourite over Remodel, Moneylender, Steward and even Trading Post.

Terminal collision really hurts it, the Island removes itself from the game, making way for the Militias.
I could probably tweak the second strat to inch a few %'s closer, but Island will still be the winner.

Only Upgrade gets 50-50 with it and Apprentice beats it by a small margin.

This is all done with Geronimoo's simulator, you could easily try it yourself, links are on these forums somewhere.
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