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Author Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 137120 times)

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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #125 on: July 16, 2012, 08:46:00 pm »

I am thinking about it.  Will post more from pc tonight.  I have played dominion with sb before.  He isn't a doofus.

Maybe not a doofus at Dominion, but that clearly is not pertinent to a game of Mafia. Either way, I'm holding off on thinking poorly of him until he gets a chance to try to defend himself again.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #126 on: July 16, 2012, 09:01:05 pm »

Ok - so I'm at a PC now.  Shark_bait isn't just not a doofus @ dominion, he's an excellent player.  He's ranked #31 today - and a good chunk of that is because his uncertainty is high.  Give him 3 more levels if his uncertainty was +/- 7, and he's a top 15 player.

I am alot less likely to buy a "noob" defense from someone who has demonstrated extreme skill at any primarily mental activity.  It's actually the same reason that my vote is still on timchen.

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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #127 on: July 16, 2012, 09:03:03 pm »

Did I act like a noob anywhere in this game?  :o
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #128 on: July 16, 2012, 09:09:48 pm »

No, it's my respect for you that is causing me to overread into smack talking during RVS!
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shark_bait

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #129 on: July 16, 2012, 09:46:34 pm »

Alright, time for me to talk.  Let's hope I don't have to stuff a sock in it again.  My vote for Frisk came in response to timchen's call for action.

Guys (and ladies): stop arguing and just vote for frisk to test his own theory!

Frisk's Theory
So let me walk you through my thinking there.  Lets make some general assumptions that you favor a directed lynch (because then people had to provide a reason) over a random lynch, and a random lynch over no lynch.  Agreed?

When we execute a targeted lynch on Day 1 - we'll make it up to L-1 and the following things can happen:

1. Mafia quick hammers before a claim is possible.
2. Town hammers self (I wouldn't include this as a possibility, but it has happened in these forums before)
3. Mafia is being lynched and claims power role. 
4. Mafia is being lynched and claims VT
5. Town is being lynched and claims VT
6. Town is being lynched and claims PR.

The general thinking is that you don't lynch PR -> so there's no reason for mafia to claim VT.  What ends up happening in this scenario is that we force roleclaims until we hit a VT - and then we end up lynching vanilla town.

If we stop lynching VT claims (because its obvious that they are VT at that point), then that starts to let Mafia claim VT and get away with it, which then means that the outcome of lynching is just that we're outing PRs.

End result is - the more people we near lynch - the more information we get regarding bandwagons.  We can't plan to near lynch multiple people though, because this reduces the value of the information obtained from the wagon and claim.

timchen was already voting for Frisk so it seemed natural to continue down this path thus "testing his theory".  If people had continued to pile on the Frisk band wagon, worst case we force a role claim as Frisk describes in his theory.  Regardless of what the claim is, WE GET INFORMATION.  My eagerness to start (almost) lynching was due to my thought of, "Hey, I'm not a power role, I don't need to worry about suspicion coming on me because I'm not special."

Now I realize that the statement above also sounds very scummy.  Yes I am aware that I'm saying don't lynch me b/c I'm town.  Frisk noted my mental capacity and I'll try to use that.  I completely realize that there is a large freight train about to rail down on me.  I only ask this, that you take a few detours and put pressure on multiple people.  More pressure = more information.


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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #130 on: July 16, 2012, 09:55:35 pm »

 :-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

shark_bait

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #131 on: July 16, 2012, 10:04:59 pm »

:-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.

I'm pretty sure I know how he would have reacted regardless of what I said or didn't say.  In his eyes, I don't know if I could have said anything redeeming.
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Hello.  Name's Bruce.  It's all right.  I understand.  Why trust a shark, right?

Is quite curious - Who is the mystical "Celestial Chameleon"?

Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #132 on: July 16, 2012, 10:20:12 pm »

:-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.

I'm pretty sure I know how he would have reacted regardless of what I said or didn't say.  In his eyes, I don't know if I could have said anything redeeming.

It's...not that.

You just claimed, and that's bad for town. Because you're either scum, or town. And if you're town, scum now know not to shoot you at night, thus increasing their odds of hitting a PR.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

shark_bait

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #133 on: July 16, 2012, 10:35:13 pm »

Ahh... gotcha.  I apologize for my poor play.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #134 on: July 16, 2012, 10:44:21 pm »

So Galz - and this is a theory question - so go ahead and lynch me after -

But if claiming is bad for town - what is your ideal scenario (lets assume for one minute that you are town)?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #135 on: July 16, 2012, 10:45:40 pm »

Ahh... gotcha.  I apologize for my poor play.

No, don't worry too much. This is a learning game after all. Just, future reference. ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #136 on: July 16, 2012, 10:59:19 pm »

So Galz - and this is a theory question - so go ahead and lynch me after -

But if claiming is bad for town - what is your ideal scenario (lets assume for one minute that you are town)?

Yes let's.

I'm not sure I understand the question. Claiming (in general) is negative all the way around:

Town claims PR: Scum knows the claim is likely true, so can take Night Actions accordingly.
Scum claims PR: Town must unvote, consider, and likely let the claimee live. If there's a counter-claim, yes, the scum dies but again, so does the PR (most likely).
Town claims VT: Depending on the situation, you should lynch them anyway - At least a PR isn't being lynched, and you've got to keep the Mafia honest (from making this claim)
Mafia claims VT: See above.

In VERY few situations do you claim anything if you're not L-1. Let's assume S_B is telling the truth and is town. His claim was accidental and not under pressure. So we don't lynch him. Instead we lynch somebody else. We've already decreased the size of the pool to 8, increasing the odds we force a PR claim; see above for the problem with that. But let's assume we hit another VT (remember, hitting scum falls under PR claims). Now we go into night with 1 VT dead, and 1 known. Add 2 Mafia, and that leaves a 20% per role that scum lynch something important. The longer you can keep your PM under wraps - even just a VT PM - the better it is for town.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #137 on: July 16, 2012, 11:41:50 pm »

Galz, I don't agree. It depends on the setup. Say in the extreme situation when there is no PR at all, if a townie can prove himself a VT it is definitely an advantage to the town. It is roughly equivalent to a NK, as mafia has to NK him to recover. In the current setup we have to weigh between this effect and the increase of the chance for the mafia to find PR. I feel like it is still a good deal to claim if we have only 1 PR, as the chance increase for them to find PR is less than the chance increase for us to find them. And I feel in the current setup it is beneficial to the town if we can exchange a PR death with a mafia lynch?

Speaking of the PR. What do you guys think is the most powerful? It seems to me that cops is the one that stands out.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #138 on: July 16, 2012, 11:42:18 pm »

This might be a good time to mention that Sharky is one of only two people on this forum (the other being Ednever) who I have met in real life.

Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)

But yeah, we do know each other; we both went to an IRL Dominion tournament last month. He's cool, and definitely a very smart person.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #139 on: July 16, 2012, 11:43:40 pm »

Galz, I don't agree. It depends on the setup. Say in the extreme situation when there is no PR at all, if a townie can prove himself a VT it is definitely an advantage to the town. It is roughly equivalent to a NK, as mafia has to NK him to recover. In the current setup we have to weigh between this effect and the increase of the chance for the mafia to find PR. I feel like it is still a good deal to claim if we have only 1 PR, as the chance increase for them to find PR is less than the chance increase for us to find them. And I feel in the current setup it is beneficial to the town if we can exchange a PR death with a mafia lynch?

Speaking of the PR. What do you guys think is the most powerful? It seems to me that cops is the one that stands out.

Nobody should claim unless they are L-1... unless they have some good info they learned from using their powers. Revealing was a mistake on Sharky's part, but it's one everybody makes, and continues to make in every game we play, so no worries.

Cop is the most powerful role, but Doctor and Jailkeeper are also extremely powerful particularly in the endgame.
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #140 on: July 16, 2012, 11:58:47 pm »

I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #141 on: July 17, 2012, 12:03:11 am »

I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.
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shark_bait

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #142 on: July 17, 2012, 12:14:12 am »

Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)


What?!?!?!  Should I have been lurking that Mafia game?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #143 on: July 17, 2012, 12:36:38 am »

Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)


What?!?!?!  Should I have been lurking that Mafia game?

To explain, frequent Forum Mafia player Jotheonah and recurring player Glooble are twin brothers. Prior to the start of MIV, they explained that they knew each other IRL, but they waited until the middle of the game to do a full claim--after I accused them both of being mafia. After they claimed, I decided the fact that they were twins was making me see them as a scum team when in fact they were just genetically team-ish.

Glooble also claimed that Jo was town, and Pops said that we should trust Glooble's read on Jo, since they were brothers. I disagreed. Eventually we lynched Jo, who was innocent. We never lynched Glooble, who was mafia.

This Forum Mafia historical moment is brought to you by the Robz Channel. "You'll feel great when you tune in to the 8!"
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #144 on: July 17, 2012, 12:56:59 am »

I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #145 on: July 17, 2012, 12:58:24 am »

This Forum Mafia historical moment is brought to you by the Robz Channel. "You'll feel great when you tune in to the 8!"

Also, it's really too bad that the +1 button is gone. This deserves one for sure.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #146 on: July 17, 2012, 01:01:36 am »

I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.

I'm not sure that I particularly share yours and Nick's suspicion of S_B, but I do like this call on Robz. I mean, it's not EXACTLY the same, as Robz wouldn't say "I'm close to voting" (actually, he has a FEW times), but by and large "FoS now, Vote later" is pretty textbook Robz.

So: Robz, what gives? You really take issue with the way Nick handled that?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #147 on: July 17, 2012, 01:09:17 am »

I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.

I'm not sure that I particularly share yours and Nick's suspicion of S_B, but I do like this call on Robz. I mean, it's not EXACTLY the same, as Robz wouldn't say "I'm close to voting" (actually, he has a FEW times), but by and large "FoS now, Vote later" is pretty textbook Robz.

So: Robz, what gives? You really take issue with the way Nick handled that?

Mhm, this is definitely true, but there are 2 things.

1). His tone is different than mine. I rarely use the convention "FoS", for one thing. I don't know. His was too sneakily official. When I am close to voting, but not ready to vote, it's usually because I have something to think about, and I note that. Or I have some hangup I express. He did not do that. Just a subtle difference, to me.

2). Really this technique--that I do use all the time now--originated as a way to tactfully vote for Morgrim when I was mafia (alongside Galzria! in MII). Now it's part of my gameplay style, but it existed at first because I was mafia.
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #148 on: July 17, 2012, 01:14:35 am »

First thing's first...my name's not Nick. Nick Young is just the chillest NBA player around these days. So yeah, Young Nick is just Nick Young backwards.

Relating to mafia...
I thought for the first 3 pages that FoS meant Full of Shenanigans. I just learned what it actually meant very recently! I'm not really a huge fan of it, and was not that into PPS using it, but it seemed an appropriate time to use it. I don't have a particular hang-up other than the fact that there really haven't been that many posts. So I try to glean as much as I can from the few we have.

As for Robz's second point, I totes notice him subtly hinting how that's a scummy technique. Don't think I don't see you ;)
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #149 on: July 17, 2012, 01:15:36 am »

And, I stand by what I have said about S_B so far.
Vote: Shark_Bait
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