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Author Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 137116 times)

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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2012, 10:15:31 pm »

I lurked most of I and II. I briefly looked over the others, mostly at the final days and post-game commentary.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2012, 01:36:59 am »

I started following Mafia right at the beginning of Mafia III, and I followed III and IV really closely. I went back and read a little of I and II, but I'll admit I didn't get all the way through either of them. I'm following Role Madness right now and super excited to finally be playing!

I've seen Manda lurking ALL of the Mafia threads, quite often. (S?)He should be quite informed on how this show goes. :)

She :)

Ah, a confirmed female. Unlike Cayvie, who is an unconfirmed female.

Playing the original setup again should be interesting. The key thing here is for the power role people--whoever they are--to be on their toes. It's pretty self-explanatory, but the Cop wants to investigate the suspicious people. Like, if we lynch Galzria first round, and he flipped town, the Cop might consider investigating the person who most strongly pressed for Galzria's head, or the person who gave the death blow, or something. Or the Cop might conclude that the mafia wisely stayed off this town wagon to gain credibility, and then you would investigate someone who stayed away. The Cop wants to keep his/her identity a secret, but you have to weigh that at some point if you have info that helps us, it's wiser to say. That way a possible protective role knows to help you out, and you don't carry any secrets to your grave.

Doctor is very powerful, and a little easier. Protect the people who are vulnerable--the other power role, if he/she exists and you know who it is--but be smart about it. If you think the mafia thinks you're saving X, you don't actually need to save X. Remember that it's super important to keep your identity a secret. The only person you can't protect is yourself.

Jailkeeper should also protect the vulnerable, but if we are down to one remaining mafia, the Jailkeeper is even more effective as a person who can jail the mafia and stop the kill. In the first Forum Mafia game, I was the Jailkeeper. By process of elimination, I was pretty sure who the last mafia person was going into the final night. I jailed him, preventing his kill, and the next morning I knew exactly who the mafia was.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #27 on: July 15, 2012, 04:44:13 am »

Checking in here! On ipad still, so cutting this short: I dont like what timchen is doing, but not FOS'ing yet because even though I think its scummy, it might not be mafia because iirc he has been like that in every game.

And +1 to what robzie said, town power roles are HUGE in this setup. A thing to remember: we will likely have mafia claining them too.

Oh and I really like having a (confirmed) woman on board :)
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2012, 09:29:10 am »

Vote Count 1-1

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1): timchen

Not Voting {7}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #29 on: July 15, 2012, 09:29:40 am »

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #30 on: July 15, 2012, 09:59:17 am »

Umm Sam.  We don't have all of the prs.  We have at most 2, and possibly only 1.  I'm on iPad, but no lynch is a terrible idea.
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #31 on: July 15, 2012, 10:16:51 am »

Did I ever tell you the part about where I failed reading comprehension but aced essay writing?

Unvote
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #32 on: July 15, 2012, 10:53:34 am »

Also...we aren't going to mislynch a PR because worst case scenario is that they claim before they get hammered. Obviously an outed PR is worse than a closeted PR, but in general both are better than a dead PR. Or...

closet PR>outed PR>dead PR

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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #33 on: July 15, 2012, 10:57:19 am »

I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #34 on: July 15, 2012, 11:05:49 am »

I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #35 on: July 15, 2012, 11:09:07 am »

Posting from iPhone and busy with family for the next several hours. I'll be reading but probably not posting anything terribly long until much later, but checking in now to say two things:

1) this has already been said, but I'll go ahead and reiterate: no-lynch seems to me like a really bad idea. With only a couple power roles, all no-lynch does is give the mafia a chance for a head start. And, as Young Nick already stated, if it becomes necessary, a power role can always claim. Not the best situation, but much better than killing them off.

2) I agree with Eevee that timchen's posts seem a bit off, but this early, that doesn't necessarily mean much. Early voting may be good to get conversation going, but I'm really wary of trusting initial reads.

Longer post coming this afternoon, I'm sure.
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #36 on: July 15, 2012, 11:50:25 am »

I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).

Oh, I agree but I still place no faith in the claim at the time. Scum or Town will both claim to save their necks. The analysis after the fact is where the faith is properly placed.
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #37 on: July 15, 2012, 11:53:01 am »

1) this has already been said, but I'll go ahead and reiterate: no-lynch seems to me like a really bad idea. With only a couple power roles, all no-lynch does is give the mafia a chance for a head start....

Strongly agree, my analysis and early vote were based on a flawed comprehension of the starting game state. A lynch is strongly desired with any of the possible starting game starts outlined in the Mod post.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #38 on: July 15, 2012, 11:58:03 am »

I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).

Oh, I agree but I still place no faith in the claim at the time. Scum or Town will both claim to save their necks. The analysis after the fact is where the faith is properly placed.

Well, placing no faith is certainly stupid. Town wont lie to save his/her neck, and we certainly arent lynching anyone who claims until we have investigated the situation some. Yes, that means last minute claims will always buy scum at least one day but nothing can really be done about that, lynching power roles is catastrophic for town. Its also pretty hard to make a believable PR claim (you often have said or done something earlier to make it not believable).
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #39 on: July 15, 2012, 12:16:38 pm »

I think maybe you are confusing "placing no faith" with "refusing to lynch". I find the 2 mutually exclusive.
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2012, 12:20:46 pm »

Could you flesh out your thoughts a bit more, pingpongsam? You really won't not lynch the person who claims before there's a hammer?

So if you are going to hammer someone, their claiming will do nothing to prevent you?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #41 on: July 15, 2012, 02:51:55 pm »

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch

As you've later realized, this doesn't work because we don't know which 2 of the following 4 roles we have: 1 Jailkeeper, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 extra townie.

If we knew that we had a Doctor and a Jailkeeper, the winning strategy is actually known: the Cop should reveal himself immediately, and the Doctor should stay quiet and protect him. But because we don't know this, everyone should remain quiet. And we probably should lynch, or at least try to lynch, in order to gather info for Night 1 and Day 2.

If I seriously doubt that the lynch target is scum, I will not kill for the sake of killing someone. But that's just how I play. Most people seem to prefer killing anybody over nobody on Day 1, and I can understand that.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #42 on: July 15, 2012, 02:52:52 pm »

In the above paragraph, I actually made that confusing. The line that reads "If we knew that we had a Doctor and Jailkeeper" should read "If we knew that we had a Doctor and Cop"
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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #43 on: July 15, 2012, 03:13:55 pm »

Well, someone has to do some accusing so that someone else gets defensive so some actual talk comes of it. Until then, we all sit here, waiting for someone else to make the first move.

So I'll start things off, just to get people thinking.
I'm wary of the experienced players. Namely Robz, Galz, Frisk, and Eevee. More so than anyone else Robz because he has already had two "coaching" posts. I understand he's teaching us the ropes and such, but I want to make sure no one starts to blindly follow everything he says once we start getting into accusations.

I guess I'm saying I want everybody to form their own opinions and not just listen to the experienced players. If one or two of the aforementioned four are scum, they could "coach" us to their own victory.

So, I'll give a super-premature vote, my first ever in a Mafia game: Vote: Robz888
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #44 on: July 15, 2012, 03:53:40 pm »

That last time RobZ gave helpful advice - he actually was giving helpful advice.  Most of what he put up there is easily search able on the interwebs.  Basically - the recommended setup for noobs was Doctor + Cop vs. Mafia... until some bright people broke it.  With the random setup, the cop can't claim because he doesn't know he will be protected, and it keeps things interesting.

I much prefer the RobZ approach to helping newer players understand the game than say the popsofctown approach, in which he called the rest of his teammates idiots.

I'm going to throw a finger of suspicion your way - because hoping that everyone disregards accepted strategy is a pretty scummy wish.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #45 on: July 15, 2012, 04:03:37 pm »

I haven't said a whole lot thusfar, so let me at least take the time to mention what I look for in scum:

They have very little incentive to lie. Unless they come under extreme pressure, they're likely to play very similar to town. Everybody is going to start getting vibes from everyone else and it's not difficult to tuck yourself away as scum. Hmm, perhaps I should be more clear:

As town, the 8 people around you are all equally as suspicious to start the game. When you accuse someone, there is... A natural amount of hedge, of, "I really don't know". It's often accused that hedging is a scumtell, but in reality they know for certain that their accusations can't miss (town). Because of this, there's a lack of natural incentive to hedge. So I like to look for people who's "I'm really not sure" comes across as disingenuous. It's a lot harder to force feelings that should just be natural.

That said (and moving back into the first paragraph), unless they are under pressure, scum won't lie very often. If/When they start to attack someone it's usually because that person has done something to appear scummy. I use Hedging as an example above for this reason. "You suspected X, and now you don't?" - "You voted for Y when it was "safe", then unvoted when he got extra votes? lolscumbuddies" - etc. They're arguments that are easy to make, but they aren't really scummy behaviors. As town, don't let yourself get drawn into making bad, or irrelevant, arguments - and be on the watch for Mafia doing so.

They may have the advantage in that they can't be wrong, but we can use that to our own benefit. Mafiahunt, don't scumhunt. I also like to look for where actions don't meet words. Someone who indicates a desire to act one way, then doing another.

...And, this post really lost it's flow. That's what happens when you write every other sentence after some sort of distraction. Oh well. I think the gist of what I'm saying comes through. Mafia have a huge advantage in how "not to apper scummy" over the town, so it's important to find Mafia trends and behavior, not scummy trends and behavior.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #46 on: July 15, 2012, 04:05:05 pm »

What I'm trying to say is that D1 is helpful advice, but D2 he might abuse the fact that we trust him. Clearly what he has said so far is helpful. But maybe it won't always be. Mind you, I'm mainly trying to stir up discussion. When, or should I say if, he gives a good defense showing how and why he won't do what I am afraid he'll do, I'll gladly unvote. Until then, vote stands.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #47 on: July 15, 2012, 04:06:21 pm »

(The third paragraph above switched from referencing town, to referencing scum after "it's accused hedging is a scumtell...)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #48 on: July 15, 2012, 04:12:44 pm »

Oh - @Young Nick - sorry if my tone is a little harsh.  RobZ is always scummy as heck - and I'm a big fan of early voting as a discussion starter.  I'm not a big fan of casual voting as lynches near.

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Young Nick

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #49 on: July 15, 2012, 04:16:35 pm »

@Galz (and kinda C_F), could you explain the difference between scum and Mafia?
Mafia means Mafia, I figure.
But scum just means someone who is lying or being otherwise deceitful?
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