While playing a game with theory this morning, he remarked that he needed to do the math on Horse Traders to see whether HT/Silver or S/S was better at getting to $6. I felt I did too, so when I had some time tonight, using
his basic opening probabilities, I did. So here it is, with Silver/Silver first and Horse Traders/Silver to follow.
Warning: Huge Collimated lists follow:
Silver/Silver
Probability Hands Coin Coin
15.2% ccces|ccees $5 $4
10.1% ccces|ccces $5 $5
10.1% cccee|ccces $3 $5
7.6% cccce|ccess $4 $6
7.6% cccee|ccess $3 $6
7.6% ccccs|ccees $6 $4
7.6% cccce|ccees $4 $4
5.1% cccce|ccces $4 $5
5.0% cccee|cccss $3 $7
3.8% cccce|ceess $4 $5
2.5% ccccs|cceee $6 $2
2.5% ccccs|ceees $6 $3
2.5% ccccs|cccee $6 $3
2.5% cccss|cceee $7 $2
2.5% ccccs|ccces $6 $5
1.5% ccccc|ccees $5 $4
1.5% ccccc|ceess $5 $5
1.3% cccce|cccee $4 $3
1.2% cccce|cccss $4 $7
1.0% ccccc|ceees $5 $3
0.7% ccccc|ccess $5 $6
0.3% ccccc|cceee $5 $2
0.2% ccccc|eeess $5 $4
Drawing $7 8.8%
At least one $6 or $7 42.4%
Not drawing $5 on either turn 8.8%
Drawing $5 or better twice 14.9%
Average total money $9.17
Horse Traders/Silver
Probability Hands Coin Coin
10.1% ccceh|ccces $5 $5
7.6% ccces|cceeh $5 $5
7.6% ccceh|ccees $5 $4
7.6% cccce|ccehs $4 $6
7.6% cccee|ccehs $3 $6
5.05% cccee|ccces $3 $5
5.05% cccee|ccceh $3 $5
5.0% cccee|ccchs $3 $6
3.8% ccccs|cceeh $6 $5
3.8% cccch|ccees $5 $4
3.8% cccce|cceeh $4 $5
3.8% cccce|ccees $4 $4
3.8% cccce|ceehs $4 $6
2.55% cccce|ccces $4 $5
2.55% cccce|ccceh $4 $5
2.5% ccchs|cceee $6 $2
1.5% ccccc|ceehs $5 $6
1.3% cccce|cccee $4 $3
1.25% cccch|cceee $5 $2
1.25% ccccs|cceee $6 $2
1.25% cccch|ceees $5 $3
1.25% ccccs|ceeeh $6 $4
1.25% ccccs|cccee $6 $3
1.25% cccch|cccee $5 $3
1.25% cccch|ccces $5 $5
1.25% ccccs|ccceh $6 $5
1.2% cccce|ccchs $4 $6
.75% ccccc|ccees $5 $4
.75% ccccc|cceeh $5 $5
0.7% ccccc|ccehs $5 $6
0.5% ccccc|ceees $5 $3
0.5% ccccc|ceeeh $5 $4
0.3% ccccc|cceee $5 $2
0.2% ccccc|eeehs $5 $5
Drawing $7 0%
At least one $6 or $7 38.7%
Not drawing $5 on either turn 5.1%
Drawing $5 or better twice 27.2%
Average total money $9.10
What does this mean? Well, to answer theory's question, Silver/Silver is a bit better at pulling a $6 out of the hat. It also produces a little more money in turns 3-4 overall. But if you want to consistently hit $5, Horse Traders is your best bet. Of course all of this assumes your opponent isn't attacking you, which will favor Horse Traders, and Horse Traders gives you an extra buy (although this isn't such a big deal early game so often). Silver's going to shine midgame while Horse Traders' value will start picking up again late, for 2 reasons - it gives the extra buy, and your deck has more green in it. Of course neither are probably so great in a big engine, HT is a terminal, so you need to watch out for that, but it gains a lot of value from attacks being on the board - particularly the big $5 attacks as well as your militia/goons attack. HT/Silver with a village follow-up later on can be really powerful on a Witch or Mountebank board. In a straight-up big money deck though, I'd be surprised plain ole silver doesn't outperform.