Okay, I haven't been paying good enough attention here lately (the forum crashing didn't help), so I just went back and reviewed my own case against Jotheonah. This seems important, since people are now moving against Axxle. I will say that I can understand why, but... I think there is still a very good case for lynching Jo.
In my mind, the case for lynching him begins with this post:
This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go. After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.
One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place. So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.
We all criticize him for this and he responds:
You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role. As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.
But as the mafia make that decision (about who is most likely to be a power role), they're presented with a whole big WIFOM. They only know for sure if they investigate me, in which case they'd know for sure anyway. I just ... don't think it's that big a deal.
And none of this explains why Axxle thinks it's worthy of a vote, because I can't see even a little bit why it makes sense for the mafia, for the reasons I explained earlier.
Oh look, I'm getting worked up again. Meh.
Later, he will call the claim a mistake. But at first, it's not a mistake. It's good strategy, he says.
I don't wish to debate this, but claiming a non-role does not seem to me on par with claiming a role, for various reasons. VT is what everyone's supposed to assume everyone else is anyway. The fact that I said it means nothing. You have no reason to believe or disbelieve me, nor do the mafia. It is, in my mind, very much like not claiming. In future games, I will avoid it because it clearly irks people. But really, I kinda think it's a nonissue.
I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble, and I don't get a town read from Grujah. The Grujah wagon seems to me to be the most authentic wagon out there. I don't think Grujah is actually online/around, so his lack of a defense is neither suspicious nor non-suspicious. But for now, I'm going to go ahead and
Vote: Grujah
For the record, he was the third suspect in my readthrough anyway, and my suspicion of CF wasn't really doing anything/going anywhere (partly cause I got real distracted by the votes on me, my own meditation on defensiveness and town play, and, oh yeah, meatspace stuff, and didn't have the time/energy to actually pursue it.)
So, he's pivoting. And he makes sure to cast a vote. Jotheonah seems very, very, very concerned about dying. He wants to make it seem like he doesn't care, but he does. He wants somebody, anybody, to die instead of him. Here is so desperately trying to paint Grujah as this frontrunner suspect (in reality, Grujah is just one of a handful of more suspicious players).
Then, this:
Question for pops:
Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?
That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.
See, I would have thought that at least someone would read that question as hypothetical. But like, you're all sure I'd actually do it.
So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.) Now if anyone but me gets lynched (according to lots of people) I'm a nighttime liability to the town. So in that case, I ask again, isn't it pro-town for me to facilitate my own lynch?
Please love me! I am pro-town! I am fine with dying! Except he clearly isn't. He hasn't committed to dying to nearly the same extent as, say, Morgrim in MII.
Next, recognizing how badly he's coming off here, he gets out of dodge.
Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.
Then, he tries to make it look like he is helping the town by casting suspicion on someone who has gone unnoticed: Axxle.
Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.
Unvote
Vote: Axxle
Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.
In reality, he is simply choosing a new target wisely. Axxle already has a vote from Galz, and he has started making himself look suspicious to the town. Grujah is clearly not a contender for the lynch today. Jo didn't really suspect Axxle--he's just betting on another horse. Lucky for him, this one goes somewhere, and there are now quite a few Axxle votes.
+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.
Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?
And here he is trying to draw the conversation back to Axxle.
So, a few things stick out to me about Jo:
He committed a series of errors that he first calls good play and later admits to being errors.
He offered to self-lynch, but didn't.
He has tried to downplay how much he wants to be alive, but clearly wants to be alive.
He has desperately sought to join any bandwagon that could conceivably prop up so that someone else may die.
Both mafia and the town want to live, of course. If I were in danger of dying, I would fight tooth and nail to convince you all that I was a member of the town, regardless of what role I had. And I would expect that from Jo, too--indeed, I saw it in MII. The fact that he has tried to downplay how much he cares here, while simultaneously still doing all the things to keep himself alive--reads mafia to me. Big time.
Am I convinced? Not at all. But this is a lot of evidence to have against somebody in the first round, and it's enough to sway me.
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Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 334382 times)