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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 330664 times)

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Grujah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #150 on: June 04, 2012, 01:11:07 pm »

Oh, dang.
I accidently clicked edit instead of quote on my post.
 :'(
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #151 on: June 04, 2012, 01:13:50 pm »

What is a RVS?

Random voting stage, its part 2 of the article axxle linked. Its probably the more useful part to which he was referring you. (Part 1 is about how to argue)

There is part two?  :o
Good thing you mentioned it, I totally missed it.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #152 on: June 04, 2012, 01:14:32 pm »

Warning - while you were reading 8 new replies have been posted.  You may wish to review your post.
Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted.  You may wish to review your post.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #153 on: June 04, 2012, 01:16:43 pm »

Warning - while you were reading 8 new replies have been posted.  You may wish to review your post.
Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted.  You may wish to review your post.

This is a serious problem. By the time you post anything more than a one liner - the post that you're quoting is now off the page.  It's going to make re-reading this later very difficult.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #154 on: June 04, 2012, 01:26:07 pm »

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #155 on: June 04, 2012, 01:26:46 pm »

@Galzria: Doesn't that logic keep recurring backwards somewhat though? If, according to your (perfectly reasonable) logic, the penultimate vote is the scummiest, then double-bluffing mafia would be interested in avoiding it, meaning it's more likely to be a town vote. And so on and so forth.
Of course, that leaves us in the position of not being able to extra any information from voter order which obviously isn't accurate either. So take any thoughts with a pinch of salt.

Sorry, didn't mean to ignore you here:

Yes, you could get into that spiral... But at some point, looking at the players around you, you have to wonder how far a bluff might ACTUALLY go.

People suspect vote #1, as it's the least reasoned (often)
People suspect the final vote because it's the one to get the job done
People suspect everything in between as bandwagon

I would posit that perhaps, there really is nothing to be gained from vote order when considered as it's own entity. But combined with reasons given, past stances, and stated preference for day length (By the way, what are your thoughts on allowing the day to go on, for the sole purpose of getting more posts or there?), I believe there is much to be gained from vote order.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #156 on: June 04, 2012, 01:30:09 pm »

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.
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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #157 on: June 04, 2012, 01:30:38 pm »

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

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O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #158 on: June 04, 2012, 01:32:12 pm »

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.

That's insane. If you had 33% surity, and the surity was directly translatable into actual odds a person is mafia, then if we random-voted with 33% odds the town would have great chances of winning (I'm pretty sure the math here is right).

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #159 on: June 04, 2012, 01:34:34 pm »

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.

That's insane. If you had 33% surity, and the surity was directly translatable into actual odds a person is mafia, then if we random-voted with 33% odds the town would have great chances of winning (I'm pretty sure the math here is right).

Uh, I think you're right. I shouldn't have attached numbers. Forget the 51%. I just meant: more sure than not that they are mafia. So I could think Jo is more likely to be mafia than O, but I'm not going to vote for either of them if I still think Jo is more likely town than mafia. Okay?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #160 on: June 04, 2012, 01:35:09 pm »

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?
Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #161 on: June 04, 2012, 01:35:27 pm »

O, since you can't be deterred in your random vote, set each person of 15 up to a 4 second time window, then post. That fulfills the 60 second time stamp, so will hit someone, and keeps to your theme.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #162 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:09 pm »

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

Here we go again.

What I would say is pick something that you can not reliably predict.  Lets say: the share price of facebook - in cents at close today.  (Thats 2.5 hours from now I think?)

Take that number and "mod" it by 15.  If you aren't a computer programmer, that's the remainder that exists after you divide it by 15... this will give you a number between 0 and 14.

So if the final share price was 34.12, thats 3412 cents, which is 227 * 15 + 7 ... so the mod is 7 (http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/modulo-calculator/)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #163 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:19 pm »

Is that ... 3 votes for me already? My aren't we a jumpy town. There's lots of folks who haven't even weighed in yet, probably because they're at work or asleep. So let's not give them too much catching up to do eh?

On my somewhat erratic posting style. I'm trying something different this game. Taking myself, and the whole thing just a little less seriously. I think it might actually end up being good for the town. It will certainly be good for my blood pressure. It's probably not the best place to look for scum Day 1, though. On Day 2, though, we can totes do the "Lynch J cause he's being weird thing." I will lead the charge.

Whoever said my play is antitown because it's distracting: Just stop being distracted by it. If my comments seem ignorable, ignore them. Everybody wins.

I will not be returning to this site for the next 4 1/2 hours for strictly RL reasons. I really mean it, I'm signing out and everything.

PPE: Oh man, O is playing? There goes my master plan of being O this game. Unless, O, do you wanna be me? Could be fun.
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O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #164 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:50 pm »

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?
Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?

Axxle's already rousing suspicion. I did it Game 1 as a joke, Game III as a joke, and now Game IV as a joke. Why wasn't Axxle hard and fast on my case in Mafia I?

Oh wait, he was mafia in Mafia I, so maybe he's changing his strategy because he's town. Or maybe its one of those WIFOM analysis paradoxes.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #165 on: June 04, 2012, 01:36:59 pm »

O, since you can't be deterred in your random vote, set each person of 15 up to a 4 second time window, then post. That fulfills the 60 second time stamp, so will hit someone, and keeps to your theme.

O - please don't do this - because people will suspect that you're gaming the system because you control the post time.  This is just like morgrim and writing notes down on a piece of paper - that only he can see.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #166 on: June 04, 2012, 01:38:34 pm »

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?
Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?

I'm not attempting to argue my point regarding it, I'm trying to find out others thoughts. You seem distinctly set on doing one thing, and writing off others attempts to do the same, so for now, VOTE: AXXLE.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #167 on: June 04, 2012, 01:38:44 pm »

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

Here we go again.

What I would say is pick something that you can not reliably predict.  Lets say: the share price of facebook - in cents at close today.  (Thats 2.5 hours from now I think?)

Take that number and "mod" it by 15.  If you aren't a computer programmer, that's the remainder that exists after you divide it by 15... this will give you a number between 0 and 14.

So if the final share price was 34.12, thats 3412 cents, which is 227 * 15 + 7 ... so the mod is 7 (http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/modulo-calculator/)


I almost want to vote Captain Frisk for thinking that only computer-programmers know what mods are...  >:(

But that's highly manipulatable since people can just say "ZOMG O LOOKED IT UP BEFOREHAND"
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O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #168 on: June 04, 2012, 01:40:15 pm »

Also Galz I want it verifiable that I don't cheat. It's close enough when I use the seconds digit, 4 second timeframes are fify.
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O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #169 on: June 04, 2012, 01:40:21 pm »

Iffy*
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #170 on: June 04, 2012, 01:41:52 pm »


I almost want to vote Captain Frisk for thinking that only computer-programmers know what mods are...  >:(

But that's highly manipulatable since people can just say "ZOMG O LOOKED IT UP BEFOREHAND"

Sorry - mods are just something that I have never used in real life other than programming computers.

What i'm saying is - you announce your intent to vote randomly.  You announce your random methodology IN ADVANCE.

Then - when the event happens - you stick to whatever it was.

If you don't like facebook, then my suggestion for "# of justin bieber followers @ end of day" is also reasonable - but you'll have to wait longer.
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O

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #171 on: June 04, 2012, 01:42:56 pm »

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #172 on: June 04, 2012, 01:43:21 pm »

O, a pure random vote is completely and utterly useless to town.  I don't see why you can't see that.  Mafia give clues even in Day 1 that you may be able to see Day 1.

I'm finding it annoying you keep saying you're Jester, it's useless and noisy and anti-town.  Is a joke a joke when it isn't funny?

Galzria: have you noticed all the numbers going around and OTHER people arguing what's right? People are arguing about theory whether you like it or not.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #173 on: June 04, 2012, 01:44:26 pm »

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.

HUMOR
Post a troll thread on BGG about the strength of Only Buying Money and count how many posts it receives in an hour?
/HUMOR

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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #174 on: June 04, 2012, 01:45:36 pm »

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.

HUMOR
Post a troll thread on BGG about the strength of Only Buying Money and count how many posts it receives in an hour?
/HUMOR
+1 for teh lolz that I needed.
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We might be from all over the world, but "we all talk this one language  : +1 card + 1 action +1 buy , gain , discard, trash... " - RTT
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