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Author Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 330637 times)

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #125 on: June 04, 2012, 12:20:36 pm »

Robz: Voting for someone who's been too quiet is often a mafia move as much as anything. Mafia players rarely want to just sit there in silence, and are if anything more likely to get prods from their teammates to be more active. As a way to get them to talk, well, sure, but as a target for lynching... it's a bad move. It's essentially justifying a random vote.

Oh, yes I agree. I was only saying that I know some people like to vote for people who are quiet so that they will talk, and then they take off the vote. I am okay with that, because I don't want people being incentivized to avoid suspicion by never speaking.

But as I've indicated, I don't do that, and will only vote for someone who I think is more likely mafia than not, and only if such a candidate emerges.
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Tables

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #126 on: June 04, 2012, 12:25:07 pm »

Also another very good reason against an early day end: It (often) prevents the victim having a chance to defend themselves. If they have an important role like the cop, doctor or vigilante, we do NOT want to lynch them, and if we're in the mentality of 'don't lynch until we're sure' they get more time to claim. In fact, in general I consider giving the final vote suspicious, if the general consensus of everyone isn't already that the person has no chance to defend themselves successfully, and there's no more information to gain from the day. A person being at -1 from lynch is far from implying that.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Tables

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #127 on: June 04, 2012, 12:28:34 pm »

Also as there've been three replies now just saying 'yeah okay' to my Axxle post, I think that scheme has kinda failed... intention was simply to get people questioning 'why' and ideally at least one person to disagree/suspect me from it, which would kickstart us straight into discussion.

Oh well.

I don't have any suspects yet. Hardly surprising, isn't it?
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

Robz888

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #128 on: June 04, 2012, 12:30:19 pm »

Yeah, this is essentially the phase of the day where we all stand by the street and wait for a car crash. At some point, someone will misinterpret someone else, they will react poorly, and we will be off to the races.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #129 on: June 04, 2012, 12:30:45 pm »

The longer day 1 draws out, the more posts and information there is available to be analysed. The more posts there are, the easier it is to spot where the mafia might be, and to scumhunt effectively. We don't need to use all 3 weeks, of course, but ending the day early because we can is a sure-fire way to losing (Look at Mafia II: Morgrim ended the day early, which stopped me finishing my note taking before the end of the day, which after starting in the night had left me very suspicious of three people, two of which were mafia).

Like I mentioned before, I'm certainly in no hurry to lynch, but do you disagree that dragging on day 1 for the [/i]sole purpose[/i] of letting people talk more can be as detrimental (and often more) than helpful? The reasons I listed above are that they have longer to build allegiances, and they have longer to spread confusion by dividing the townand getting us to quarrel amongst ourselves. In a 9 player game, that effect was seen on a smaller scale, so want quite as apparent (though it was there). In a 13 player game, it was VERY apparent. And here we have 15 people. It's going to devolve into chaos the longer it has the opportunity to do so. Do you disagree?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Green Opal

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #130 on: June 04, 2012, 12:31:59 pm »

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #131 on: June 04, 2012, 12:37:09 pm »

@Insomniac

"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"

Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.

I think this is essentially another flavor of the directed vs. random lynch debate.

The longer you discuss, the more information you obtain - but I tend to agree that you are less likely to lynch mafia because you are being directed by people with information.

On the other side, the faster you lynch, the better chance you have of being "correct" - because of less steering, but the less information you obtain via analysis of voting patterns and posting tendencies.

As for lynch vs. no lynch, I tend to favor lynching. 

Looking at Mafia I - lets say that that theory had not been lynched on Day 1.  Goober still would have died probably.  Would TINAS still have investigated Ozle?  Would they have been able to get all 4 town votes to lynch Ozle in the TINAS claim?  Getting all 4 votes is harder than getting 3 - as anyone who's ever tried to pick an activity for a group of people probably knows (board game to play on game night, movie to watch, where to go for dinner, etc.)

With more players - and an unknown amount of scum, perhaps it is more reasonable.  Lets say we're 15 with worst case 5 scum.... 8 required to lynch.  If we lynch town, and 1 dies overnight, we're left with 13 and 5 scum, all 7 out of 8 town required to lynch. (87.5%)

If we don't lynch, we're left with 14 and 5 scum, with 8 out of 9 required to lynch. (88.9% required to lynch).

About equivalent except for the getting 8 to agree vs. getting 7 to agree problem.  That said, you do have an extra body.

And now: because I have said I favor early voting (not necessarily early lynching)

VOTE: jotheonah - as he has already told us he is scum.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #132 on: June 04, 2012, 12:42:18 pm »

Also another very good reason against an early day end: It (often) prevents the victim having a chance to defend themselves. If they have an important role like the cop, doctor or vigilante, we do NOT want to lynch them, and if we're in the mentality of 'don't lynch until we're sure' they get more time to claim. In fact, in general I consider giving the final vote suspicious, if the general consensus of everyone isn't already that the person has no chance to defend themselves successfully, and there's no more information to gain from the day. A person being at -1 from lynch is far from implying that.

I absolutely agree with your point about allowing any and all chance for a defense. I don't, however, find the ultimate vote as scummy. It COULD be a Mafia, but is a whole lot more dangerous place for them to put themselves.

Consider, with 8 to lynch, if a player already has 7, and there is an unvoted Mafia, there is a good chance the person will be lynched regardless. There must be some consensus that got the person to 7 to begin with, right? And if any vote slot will naturally "appear" scummy, it's the final one. I believe Mafia are MUCH more inclined not to vote there, and then use the innocent person who does as a target day 2. The penultimate vote is much more revealing to me. Thoughts?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #133 on: June 04, 2012, 12:47:03 pm »

We're talking way too much theory and not enough game meat.  One of the things that the article I linked to tried to warn us about. Even more so considering what kind of forum we are on. We'll fall into the trap of voting for people who don't agree with our specific playstyle instead of who we think is scummy.

Thank you Tables for trying to create discussion but that kind of passive questioning doesn't seem to be getting us anywhere either.

jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.

I will come up with something to spur conversation in a sec, just want to get this out there.
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Green Opal

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #134 on: June 04, 2012, 12:48:34 pm »

@Galzria: Doesn't that logic keep recurring backwards somewhat though? If, according to your (perfectly reasonable) logic, the penultimate vote is the scummiest, then double-bluffing mafia would be interested in avoiding it, meaning it's more likely to be a town vote. And so on and so forth.
Of course, that leaves us in the position of not being able to extra any information from voter order which obviously isn't accurate either. So take any thoughts with a pinch of salt.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #135 on: June 04, 2012, 12:48:57 pm »

Rules Clarification:  There are, at minimum, ELEVEN Town players.  The maximum total number of Anti-Town players is FOUR.  (If there are four Mafia players, there is no Witch.)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #136 on: June 04, 2012, 12:49:17 pm »

@ C.F. - +1 for using the math I posted in M-III. Lynching simply IS mathematically better than no lynching. However, informed lynching IS better than random lynching, which is, I believe, the crux of Axxle's referenced article. So +1 to him too.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #137 on: June 04, 2012, 12:52:36 pm »

Actually the easiest way is to turn Tables's question around:
Tables: You think I'm town. Why? Why didn't you explain your position before asking everyone else? Doing so it looks like you are just testing the water before explaining your own point of view.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #138 on: June 04, 2012, 12:55:29 pm »

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #139 on: June 04, 2012, 12:57:17 pm »

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it.  It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something.  People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #140 on: June 04, 2012, 12:58:54 pm »

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

Not at all. C.F. Could very easily be Mafia. I just think he made a good point, and I agree with him on it. I don't always upvote, but will if the inclination strikes me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #141 on: June 04, 2012, 01:00:29 pm »

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.
I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it.  It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something.  People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.
And if you look, I believe I did. But hopefully my last post clarified any remaining ambiguities. I think the math is sound, it was a well made point.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Axxle

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #142 on: June 04, 2012, 01:02:00 pm »

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

Not at all. C.F. Could very easily be Mafia. I just think he made a good point, and I agree with him on it. I don't always upvote, but will if the inclination strikes me.
Inb4 Dos Equis meme.

It wasn't directed at you but at Grujah.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #143 on: June 04, 2012, 01:04:44 pm »

What got me is whether it meant "+1, good post, here's why" or "+1, good post, here's why, you seem less scummy than before". Tha t is, in more general term, does making "good points" about game globally make you less scummy?


So, also, is that "CF could very easily" C.F. could be mafia just as easy as anyone or more easily than everyone else?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #144 on: June 04, 2012, 01:04:55 pm »

 Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #145 on: June 04, 2012, 01:05:47 pm »

@ C.F. - +1 for using the math I posted in M-III. Lynching simply IS mathematically better than no lynching. However, informed lynching IS better than random lynching, which is, I believe, the crux of Axxle's referenced article. So +1 to him too.

Yes - I wanted to give you credit, but I'm really trying hard to not mention that game here, although I look forward to discussing with you when it is over.

Regarding penultimate voting - i decided to check:

Mafia I: O casts penultimate vote for theory, ftl hammers - both town - although everyone in the universe thought O was mafia.  Mafia accomplished this with only 1 vote for theory (3rd vote)

Mafia II: RobZ casts penultimate vote, Morgrim self hammers.  Both mafia voted for lynch.  Not sure if we can draw conclusions here because of the early termination of voting.


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Grujah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #146 on: June 04, 2012, 01:06:23 pm »

What is a RVS?
Nevermind, just googled it. Random Voting Stage, apparently.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2012, 01:10:42 pm by Grujah »
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #147 on: June 04, 2012, 01:07:18 pm »

What got me is whether it meant "+1, good post, here's why" or "+1, good post, here's why, you seem less scummy than before". Tha t is, in more general term, does making "good points" about game globally make you less scummy?


So, also, is that "CF could very easily" C.F. could be mafia just as easy as anyone or more easily than everyone else?

Yes, yes he could. We all could very easily be Mafia. I'm not writing anybody but myself out of that category.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #148 on: June 04, 2012, 01:09:03 pm »


jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.


HUMOR IS ANTI-TOWN. ALL LEVITY MUST BE ELIMINATED.

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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)
« Reply #149 on: June 04, 2012, 01:10:13 pm »

What is a RVS?

Random voting stage, its part 2 of the article axxle linked. Its probably the more useful part to which he was referring you. (Part 1 is about how to argue)
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