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[Voltgloss]

Welcome to Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls!

Per the players' unanimous vote, a Discussion Quicktopic for spectators (and deceased non-Mafia players) has now been created for this game.  If you would like to join, please PM me and I will send you the link.  Thanks.

The Game Is Over - Mafia Wins!
Players Signed Up:
1 - Galzria (DEAD - Killed Night 2; Town Vanilla)
2 - Dsell (Mafia Goon)
3 - Insomniac (DEAD - Killed Night 1; Town Vanilla)
4 - Robz888 (DEAD - Killed Night 5; Town Vanilla)
5 - Captain_Frisk (DEAD - Lynched Day 5; Witch)
6 - O (DEAD - Lynched Day 2; Mafia Goon)
7 - Axxle1 (DEAD - Lynched Day 1; Town Vanilla)
8 - theorel (DEAD - Killed Night 1; Town Village Idiot)
9 - Glooble (Mafia Thief)
10 - popsofctown (DEAD - Killed Night 4; Town Vanilla)
11 - Tables (ENDGAMED; Town Chaplain)
12 - Grujah (DEAD - Killed Night 2; Town Woodcutter)
13 - jotheonah (DEAD - Lynched Day 3; Town Vanilla)
14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft (ENDGAMED; Town Spy)
15 - Axxle2 (replaced Green Opal) (DEAD - Lynched Day 4; Town Vanilla)

Mafia Ruleset (blatantly stolen from Axxle's Mafia II intro post)

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it.  Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline.  If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions.  In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate.  Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax!  Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will generally have 2 week deadlines.  (There will be a 3 week deadline for Day 1 to accommodate a participant's announced-in-advance vacation.)  If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts.  We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement.  A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.
8. If a one-shot power is roleblocked, the power IS used up.

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Helpful Links:

• Main Wiki Page
  
  
• Newbie Guide
  
  
• Frequently Asked Questions
  
  
• Commonly Used Abbreviations
  
  
• Mafia Theory

Game Setup
Game Setup information:

This game has a semi-open setup.  Any of the below-listed roles may be present in the game.  If a role is not listed below, it will not appear in this game.

There will be a total of fifteen players, consisting of:
- between eleven and thirteen Town players (including between zero and eight power roles);
- between two and four Mafia players; and
- zero or one Witch {Serial Killer} players.

The exact distribution of roles is randomly distributed.  To keep the game balanced, the more power roles there are among the Town players, the more players and/or power roles there are among the anti-Town players.  It is possible that multiple players may have the same role.

All roles have been "reskinned" for Dominion flavor.  This has not substantively changed any of the roles from their normal Mafia versions.  For each role, the "normal" Mafia name is provided in {curly braces}.  A list of all roles potentially in the game, with their "normal" Mafia names provided, follows:

- Adventurer {Town Cop}
- Chaplain {Town Doctor}
- Militiaman {Town Vigilante}
- Bureaucrat {Town Roleblocker}
- Spy {Town One-Shot Cop}
- Moat Builder {Town One-Shot Doctor}
- Woodcutter {Town One-Shot Vigilante}
- Moneylender {Town One-Shot Roleblocker}
- Village Idiot {Town Innocent Child}
- Gardener {Town Mason}
- Thief {Mafia Roleblocker}
- Chancellor {Mafia Godfather}
- Witch {Serial Killer}
- Vanilla Townie
- Mafia Goon

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Town Vanilla
Welcome to Mafia IV!

You couldn't believe it when the local lord invited you to his personal Estate for a week-long Feast.  You're certainly in distinguished company - all these other influential folks from the Village - it's all you can do to remember to keep your elbows off the table and remember which way to pass the bread versus which way to pass the wine.  But then his lordship dropped dead halfway through the suckling pig, and somebody started going on about poison and the Mafia, and now you're trapped in the Estate grounds with the portcullis keys nowhere to be found.  One thing's for sure:  if only Mafia are left when those gates get opened, the Town is at their mercy.  You've got to stop them now.  You and your friends.  If only you knew who they were...

You are a Townie, a Vanilla Townie.

Your weapon is your vote.  You have no night actions.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Adventurer {Cop}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Sure, it shocked you as much as the rest of them when the local bigwig fell face-first into a butchered pig's ass, but you've seen worse.  You've sought the sacred river Alph and walked the caves of ice.  You've dealt with trickier situations, and you know what's most important:  information.  Here, that means information on your fellow Estate dwellers.  A good Adventurer knows not to rest until the puzzle is solved.  Hopefully, you'll stay alive long enough to do just that.

You are a Townie, a Town Adventurer {Cop}.

Each night phase, you may investigate one player in the game by PM'ing the mod.  You will get results back in the form of Town, Antitown or No Result.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Spy {One-Shot Cop}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Who'd believe the Duke was really onto something when he sent you to this backwater Village.  Months of hard work establishing your cover as a prominent local, watching, listening, waiting... finally paid off.  The Mafia are here, right here in the Estate with you, and they've started to get their hands dirty.  Now you walk a fine line.  Sure, you're certainly equipped to get to the bottom of things, but you can't tip your hand completely - for someone in your profession, that's worse than death.  You've seen the Torturers.  You know what they can do.  On the other hand, letting the Mafia take over means you're dead anyway.  So, just a LITTLE spying, then.  All things in moderation.  Hopefully it'll be just enough.

You are a Townie, a Town Spy {One-Shot Cop}.

Once at night, you may investigate a player in the game by PM'ing the mod. You will get results back in the form of Town, Antitown or No Result.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Chaplain {Doctor}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

The stink of evil.  You thought it was the stink of trichinosis in that pig, but no, it's worse than that.  The Mafia have come.  Time for us all to get on our knees and pray.  Well, you, at least.  Prayer can do some wondrous things.  Like the time the Mine collapsed with four Villagers trapped inside.  You prayed your ass off that day, and look, they all made it out alive.  Well, not counting Bob, but Bob was a jerk anyway.  You weren't praying for him.  Directed prayer.  Targeted prayer.  It's what you do best.  Hopefully your prayers will be strong enough to keep the Mafia at bay.  It's your toughest challenge yet, but hey, that's why you invested in these triple-thick kneepads.

You are a Townie, a Town Chaplain {Doctor}.

Each night phase, you may protect one player in the game from one nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Pappy always said:  "Ain't no problem a Moat can't solve.  Or stop.  Or at least hinder for a while.  Depends what you put in the moat.  Water, that's the old standard, tried and true, not that inventive.  Add some alligators, now you're thinking.  Boiling oil works too - not with the alligators though, unless fondue's your thing.  Mmm, fondue.  Go get Pappy some more o' that cheese."  Yup, Pappy knew his moats, just like you know yours.  Too bad there's a shortage of crocodiles and boiling oil here.  Got some water though.  Wine too.  Yup, when the time is right, you're gonna build the best moat you ever built, stump the Mafia real good.  They all laughed when you explained your patented indoor-moat invention.  You'll be the one laughing now.  Too bad you've only got enough shovels to build one.  But maybe one, when it counts, is all you'll need.

You are a Townie, a Town Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor}.

Once at night, you may protect a player in the game from one nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Militiaman {Vigilante}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

You'd have arrested the pig on the spot, but even the most ornery half-eaten pig can't make a man cough out his own lungs.  No, this was poison all right, cough-out-your-lungs poison, clearly the work of those cowardly Mafia.  Now they've made off with the portcullis keys and you all are trapped here, like rats, or maybe pigs, or maybe rats in the carcass of a half-eaten pig.  But lunch can wait.  They picked the wrong Militiaman to trap in their little game.  Specifically, the one who brings a crossbow and twenty bolts with him wherever he goes.  It's in your room now, oiled and shiny.  Vera, her name is.  C'mon Vera.  They want to play with us?  Let's play.

You are a Townie, a Town Militiaman {Vigilante}.

Each night, you may select a player in the game to target for a nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Woodcutter {One-Shot Vigilante}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

You're going to have to start stocking better varnish.  That Throne Room table was a masterpiece of your work, and yet all it took was one little acid-filled pig to eat the finish right off.  But varnish, for once, is going to have to wait.  The Mafia are here and they've got more deadly things on their mind than carpentry.  Back in your room, you heft your little hatchet.  Small, but sharp.  Good for throwing.  The Mafia aren't going to let you get close, so throwing is going to have to do.  Too bad you can't throw the same axe twice.  Well, you could, but man, contact with bone just dulls the edge down to nothing.  You're a craftsman; you use only the best tools.  So, one throw.  One.  Better make it count.

You are a Townie, a Town Woodcutter {One-Shot Vigilante}.

Once at night, you may select a player in the game to target for a nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

DEAC section 781.3(b) provides that, upon the catastrophic illness, dismemberment, or dissolving of an Estate-holder or higher status, immediate command of municipal and local staff passes temporarily to the highest-ranking town official on hand.  Fortunately, no one here knows that, so you were able to quote the regulations on "no hay baling after 9 on Tuesdays" to get the Estate servants listening to you instead.  Not that they're going to help you find the Mafia.  The best they can do is get in someone's way.  But there's an infestation of them, and only a few of you leaders who could actually be the Mafia, and so maybe having the staff cowed by your encyclopaedic knowledge of the wage and hour code isn't such a bad thing.  People talk about "obstruction of justice."  You know that, in the right hands, obstruction IS justice.

You are a Townie, a Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}.

Each night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. They will not be able to perform an action at night if they have one.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Moneylender {One-Shot Roleblocker}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

It's that blank feeling all over again.  You were sure a lucrative investment deal with the lord was going to refill your Silver coffers, but now he's up and exploded or something and everyone's yelling about the Mafia.  The Mafia.  Fools.  When will they realize that the profits of their "legitimate" business pale in comparison to legitimate business.  Ruthless, grasping, usurious, legitimate business.  Well, business does you no good when you're dead.  Let's see... yes, between those ten staffmembers, they owe you almost three Gold ingots worth of interest.  Perhaps leveraging that loan into saving your hide isn't such a bad deal.  Of course, the thing about loans is, you can only forgive them once.  But if that one bit of "forgiveness" gets a bunch of peons to get in the Mafia's way - why, it might even be a good karma investment.  Perhaps the best you ever made...

You are a Townie, a Town Moneylender {One-Shot Roleblocker}.

Once at night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. They will not be able to perform an action on this night if they have one.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Village Idiot {Innocent Child}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Gawrsh!  Who'da thunk bringin' back that letter to the Estate woulda got you at table with so much ta eat!  You tried to explain to the nice men with spears that it warn't your letter, you picked it up back where that one fella with the purple hat dropped it, but they just kept ticklin' him with those spears and you certainly warn't gonna get in the way o' their fun.  So here ya are, eatin' like a king, and then the king up and disintimegrated or sumthin' an' now everyone's like 'We're all gonna die!'  Naw, that's silly.  You just have to explain to 'em that everythin' can be solved with buyin' Villages.  Just, more Villages.  Villages're great.  The more you get, the more you can do, and the more you can do, the more you can get!  But hey, no need to be all hasty.  That wisdom's gotta come at the right time.  Then they'll all look at you an' say what they always say:  'This idiot can't be Mafia.  He just can't.'  An' you'll nod, an' smile, an' the Villages'll make it all better.

You are a Townie, a Town Village Idiot {Innocent Child}.

At any time during the game, you may send a PM to the Mod asking to be revealed.  The Mod will then in his next post publicly announce you as a Village Idiot, confirming you as Town.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Gardener {Mason}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

The silly lord got what was coming to him.  With his blathering on about Duchies and Provinces, it was clear he had no idea where true success lay.  Now he lay dead, and perhaps it's for the best, but... not under these circumstances.  Not at the hands of the Mafia.  You heard what they did to poor popsofctown.  They were routed there, by the best Gardeners among us, but now they've sprung up here.  Like a fungus that must be carefully tilled away.  Well, at least you know who to trust.  It took a while of giving the passcode phrase, but finally someone knew the answer.  "I have an extra Buy."  "No, you have an extra Copper."  Perfect.  You quickly gave your new best friend the Gardeners' salute, and hurried out to the Courtyard to discuss strategy.  Working together, perhaps you can bring down the Mafia here as well.

You are a Townie, a Town Gardener {Mason}, along with your partner(s) [Player Name(s)].

You are confirmed Town to your Gardener partner(s) and vice versa. You are permitted to talk to your partner(s) during pregame and at nights here [QuickTopic link].

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Da boss was right.  He always is, that's what makes him da boss.  Or maybe it's that ten-foot crossbow he calls da "Piecemaker."  Anyway.  Da disguises were easy, gettin' in was a snap, and stuffin' dat pig was a stroke o' genious.  Now, jus' gotta pick off all da rest o' dese fools.  Nighttime's always best for dat kinda work.  Sure, de're lookin' around suspicious-like, an' sometimes de're lookin' at youse, but do dey really tink dey can figure out who's who before it's all become who's dead?  Wouldn't bet two Coppers on it.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Goon.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Thief {Roleblocker}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Killing's the easy part.  Absolutely ruining someone's day, now there's good work.  Sure, killing does that, but it also ENDS their day, and that cuts off the fun early.  You much prefer to strip away everything they hold dear.  A crossbow here.  A prayer book there.  A pack of three shovels, two pickaxes, and 'indoors-only' dynamite is a bit of a stretch, but well within your talents.  The boss wants them dead, and you don't blame him - but you have to have your fun too.  The boss knows you like to have fun.  That's why he sent you.  When you have fun, people can't do what THEY think is fun.  And their ideas of fun are just... well, not so much fun for you.  And the Mafia.  But mostly you.  And for them to stop your fun - well that's just MEAN, don't you think?  Meanies.  They're gonna rue the day they were so mean to you.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Thief {Roleblocker}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Each night phase, you individually may perform a roleblock on another player in the game.  You cannot block and kill in the same night.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Chancellor {Godfather}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

"Claims he's worth having around.  Isn't."  That's what they all said.  Oh, not to your face, but they were all THINKING it.  "Chancellor Useless" they'd say, back at the Provincial palace.  Well, not say.  But they were all thinking it.  So you did the only thing an evil Chancellor could do.  You formed the newest local branch of the Mafia.  The Province will be yours one day, Estate by Estate, starting right here, right now.  And they'll never suspect you.  How could they?  You already covered your tracks.  All the evidence, neatly gathered up, into one nice little pile, and then... discarded.  All gone.  They have nothing on you.  Soon though, they'll have everything on them.  And by "everything," you mean their internal organs.  All neatly gathered up into one nice little pile.  And then... discarded.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Chancellor {Godfather}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
You appear "Town" to Adventurer or Spy investigations.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Witch {Serial Killer}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

Ia!  Ia!  Strange aeons, even Death may die!  Zarkathoth TOLD you this day would come!  Zarkathoth TOLD you that the acCursed Estate would fall one day, and to be there to help it along!  Zarkathoth KNEW to eviscerate that stupid fool at the Library and install you in as the new keeper of the Town's knowledge!  They never suspected, never once, where your true allegiances lay.  Now, now, toads burp and pigs explode and the omens are perfect for a little murder spree.  The Mafia, the Town, they're all bones on their way to dust.  Zarkathoth will help.  You're sure of it.  You've already cast your protective hexes and ringed your room with deathtrap charms.  They'll never know, never suspect, and by the end of the week, they will all be dead.  And then... THEN... it's finally time for a REAL Feast.

You are a Witch {Serial Killer}.

Pregame you must choose to be either Investigation Immune or 1-Shot Bulletproof.
- If you choose Investigation Immune, you appear "Town" to Adventurer or Spy investigations.
- If you choose 1-Shot Bulletproof, you will be passively protected from the first nightkill that would otherwise resolve on you. 

Each night phase, you may select a player in the game to nightkill.

You win when you are the last player alive or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.

[Galzria]

In.



Now I'll go read your post.

[Dsell]

This is super super tempting but I'm afraid that my week-long vacation starting in two weeks might really get in the way of things. :/

[Voltgloss]

This is super super tempting but I'm afraid that my week-long vacation starting in two weeks might really get in the way of things. :/

I plan to have two-week deadlines, so I wouldn't think a week-long vacation necessarily means you can't join in.  As long as you let everyone know well ahead of time when you'll be gone and when you'll back and able to post.

[Dsell]

That...could work. Ok, crossing my fingers that the timing will work out...I'm in!

[Insomniac]

I'm in, (if you'll have the guy who accidently broke a rule in 2 )

[Grujah]

Hm... tempting.

[Morgrim7]

I am not playing, but I am excited to watch. Voltgloss, will you make a discussion thread for this?

[Insomniac]

Rules clarification, if a one shot role is roleblocked do they forfeit there action permanently or do they get that action back?

IE Im a Woodcutter and choose to kill Galzria a Mafia Goon. however the Theif Robz roleblocks me. Does this constitute my one action during the game or does it return to me as i was blocked from using my role?

(This is an example and I had absolutely no reason behind making Galzria and Robz mafia )

[Galzria]

Alright, I'll be the one to say it:

Robz is in.

I mean, we all know he isn't human. He's a Mafia machine. How could I be wrong?

[Insomniac]

Agreed plus I mean he's ONLY in ONE mafia and ONE resistance now, thats not 3 and one. 2 and 1 is NOTHING for Robz

[Galzria]

Rules clarification, if a one shot role is roleblocked do they forfeit there action permanently or do they get that action back?

IE Im a Woodcutter and choose to kill Galzria a Mafia Goon. however the Theif Robz roleblocks me. Does this constitute my one action during the game or does it return to me as i was blocked from using my role?

(This is an example and I had absolutely no reason behind making Galzria and Robz mafia )

Oh yeah. Sure. I believe you.

[Voltgloss]

I am not playing, but I am excited to watch. Voltgloss, will you make a discussion thread for this?

I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that.  I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads.  I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish.  But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.

Rules clarification, if a one shot role is roleblocked do they forfeit there action permanently or do they get that action back?

Excellent question.  The Mafiascum wiki says "there is no consensus" on this question, so that's no help.    I am inclined to rule that the one-shot role is NOT used up if roleblocked, but if a more experienced Mafia player has some comments on which is the better resolution I'm interested to hear.  The question will be definitively resolved one way or another before the game starts, and the resolution will be added to the opening post.

EDIT:  Subsequent to this post, I was convinced of the benefits of using the opposite rule:  that one-shot powers ARE consumed even if roleblocked.  Making this edit here to forestall any potential confusion.

[Grujah]

And what if (one roleblocker blocks another) one roleblocker blocks another roleblacker blocking a power role?

[Robz888]

I am in, obviously.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am in, obviously.

Sign me up too.

[Dsell]

I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that.  I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads.  I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish.  But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.

FWIW, I have no problem at all with a quicktopic (in fact I think it would be fun to go back and read) but I'm less thrilled by a discussion topic on-forum, even spoiler-protected. It's a lot harder to enforce equality that way.

[Voltgloss]

And what if (one roleblocker blocks another) one roleblocker blocks another roleblacker blocking a power role?

Another good question.  The wiki indicates that the prevailing opinion is to run the roleblocks in order starting with the one that ISN'T itself roleblocked.  In other words, if the night commands are as follows:

1. Robz roleblocks Galzria
2. Galzria roleblocks Insomniac
3. Insomniac roleblocks Dsell
4. Dsell kills Voltgloss

Then the results are:

1. Robz is the only one not blocked, so he goes first, and blocks Galzria
2. Galzria's block thus has no effect
3. Insomniac's block goes next, so he blocks Dsell's kill, and Voltgloss lives another day 

I'm inclined to use this.

[WanderingWinder]

I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that.  I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads.  I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish.  But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.

FWIW, I have no problem at all with a quicktopic (in fact I think it would be fun to go back and read) but I'm less thrilled by a discussion topic on-forum, even spoiler-protected. It's a lot harder to enforce equality that way.

It's impossible to have equality.



I could squawk again about forcing other people to be silent in the public place of the forum; if you're going to play here, you'd better be ok with having discussion here, etc. etc. etc. Or you could just read the stuff I've already posted about that....

[Dsell]

I don't plan to unless EVERY player in the game is OK with that.  I know there are some potential players who haven't joined pending or finished games because of the presence of discussion threads.  I want to leave the option open for them to join this one, if they wish.  But, once the player roster is completely full, if ALL players are OK with a discussion thread existing then I'll make a quicktopic for it.

FWIW, I have no problem at all with a quicktopic (in fact I think it would be fun to go back and read) but I'm less thrilled by a discussion topic on-forum, even spoiler-protected. It's a lot harder to enforce equality that way.

It's impossible to have equality.



I could squawk again about forcing other people to be silent in the public place of the forum; if you're going to play here, you'd better be ok with having discussion here, etc. etc. etc. Or you could just read the stuff I've already posted about that....

Well I have, and I agree for the most part. And I am ok with it. That's the case with Mafia III, and it's not THAT bad to just ignore it. I just said that I'm less thrilled by that than by a quicktopic. Of course we won't have perfect equality but I don't like rewarding dishonest players with the analysis of the whole community either. But really, I'm fine either way. Just a preference. Voltgloss was obviously asking the opinion of the people playing, so I gave mine.

[O]

I'm in

[Axxle]

/in looking forward to it!

[theorel]

I'm in.

[Glooble]

I would like to play! I have not posted in any of the discussions, but have been following Mafia II and III fairly closely.

[popsofctown]

In because you wrote flavor for every possible role.

[Galzria]

In because you wrote flavor for every possible role.

Volt never goes halfway. It's an admirable trait. Noticed it about him in M-II. Made him hard to convince. Will make him a good moderator. Looking forward to this game.

[Eevee]

When is this starting?

[Insomniac]

I could be wrong but probably once it hits 13 players, so I would imagine in the next day or 2. Monday would be a safe bet for pre-game or even starting depending on how hot this topic gets

[Eevee]

I could be wrong but probably once it hits 13 players, so I would imagine in the next day or 2. Monday would be a safe bet for pre-game or even starting depending on how hot this topic gets

Hmmh, I'd def be in (sounds like a fun setup too) if it was a bit later, but atm I'm busy enough with mafia I and I dont want to be a lurking member so not participating I guess.

[Eevee]

I could be wrong but probably once it hits 13 players, so I would imagine in the next day or 2. Monday would be a safe bet for pre-game or even starting depending on how hot this topic gets

Hmmh, I'd def be in (sounds like a fun setup too) if it was a bit later, but atm I'm busy enough with mafia I and I dont want to be a lurking member so not participating I guess.

If you somehow have difficulties with getting enough players or something, I could play though. Only having an ipad available makes typing somewhat slow and I feel I'm spending all my online time playing mafia III already and would obviously rather play one game properly than two without being able to put in enough effort.

(Meant mafia III in the last post as well.)

[popsofctown]

Roleblocks are best resolved based on dependency imo. 

On the one shot topic,
If a one-shot gets roleblocked, his power is gone, as I've always known it.  You create a terrible problem with the one shot Doc if you don't do it that way: if he tries to protect someone but is roleblocked, he shouldn't be informed.  But if that player isn't targetted for a kill, he has no idea he was roleblocked.  If you let him keep his shot, he has another Doc shot but has no idea he does.  He could send in protection PMs every night just in case, but that's a pain, it's a potentially unnecessary decision with lots of gravity if it's real.

Furthermore, allowing a one-shot to keep his shot even though he was roleblocked subverts the concept of the roleblocker.  The idea is that if a mafia roleblocker PR hunts well enough to block a cop, he will investigate 2 times all game instead of 3 and do some damage that way.  If he roleblocks a one shot cop, he should investigate 0 times instead of 1 time all game.  Delaying an investigation or delaying a protection is a very negligible amount of damage, so you have a roleblocker that randomly fails when he hits the "wrong" PR, which is dumb. 
If you want the roleblocker to interact that way it seems like you don't want a roleblocker at all.

[Robz888]

By the way, these flavor paragraphs were awesomely well done. Hats off to you, Volt.

[Tables]

I shall join. Maybe I'll survive beyond night 1 this time...

[Grujah]

Ah. the Hell, I'm in. 

[Axxle]

I shall join. Maybe I'll survive beyond night 1 this time...

Play worse

[Robz888]

It looks like we have room for one additional player....

[popsofctown]

No Robz. No.  You can't sign up twice.

[Galzria]

No Robz. No.  You can't sign up twice.

Awesome.

[WanderingWinder]

No Robz. No.  You can't sign up twice.

"I swear, that Robz A guy is mafia!"
"Robz B, are you breaking the outside of the game communication rules? Have you been talking to Robz A?"
(shifty eyes)

[Robz888]

There might be something to this Rob A and Rob B theory! Honestly, during the first round of Mafia II, I had convinced myself that Morgrim was mafia.

I remember thinking: "Oh, yes, we got him now. Look at him squirm. We caught that mafia son of a... no, wait. Wait a minute. I'm the mafia."

[Voltgloss]

Robz A: Welcome to Mafia IV!  You are a Gardener, along with your partner, Robz B!

[Voltgloss]

Thanks to all who enjoyed the flavor paragraphs.  I enjoyed writing them.  I'm looking forward to adding more flavor along these lines throughout the game. 

On the one shot topic,
If a one-shot gets roleblocked, his power is gone, as I've always known it.  You create a terrible problem with the one shot Doc if you don't do it that way: if he tries to protect someone but is roleblocked, he shouldn't be informed.  But if that player isn't targetted for a kill, he has no idea he was roleblocked.  If you let him keep his shot, he has another Doc shot but has no idea he does.  He could send in protection PMs every night just in case, but that's a pain, it's a potentially unnecessary decision with lots of gravity if it's real.

Furthermore, allowing a one-shot to keep his shot even though he was roleblocked subverts the concept of the roleblocker.  The idea is that if a mafia roleblocker PR hunts well enough to block a cop, he will investigate 2 times all game instead of 3 and do some damage that way.  If he roleblocks a one shot cop, he should investigate 0 times instead of 1 time all game.  Delaying an investigation or delaying a protection is a very negligible amount of damage, so you have a roleblocker that randomly fails when he hits the "wrong" PR, which is dumb. 
If you want the roleblocker to interact that way it seems like you don't want a roleblocker at all.

Thanks pops.  I don't feel strongly either way, so if this is what you've seen in the past and has worked well, then that's what we'll use.  Unless someone else has played with one-shots not getting used up if roleblocked, and can describe their experiences therewith as positive?

Roleblocks are best resolved based on dependency imo.

Just so I'm clear:  is that what I described, or are you picturing some other method?  I confess I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "dependency."  Apologies for my denseness. 

[popsofctown]

It's what you described.  Sorry for not explaining more clearly, dependency is a concept from Magic: the Gathering rules, it became so understandable to me I didn't realize it's not an immediately clear concept.

[Voltgloss]

Just one more sign-up needed, and we'll be underway!

[Galzria]

Hum. Debating staying signed up. Love the flavor, and believe I would enjoy your moderating, but... Hum.

[Voltgloss]

Hum. Debating staying signed up. Love the flavor, and believe I would enjoy your moderating, but... Hum.

Galzria, I sense you're feeling "burnt out" and wondering about whether to continue these Mafia games at all.  In the end, it's just a game, and not worth getting RL upset over.  So if you want to withdraw, that's fine, but... maybe if you tried a game where you committed up front to not posting SO much as you have in, say, M-II (no comment on ongoing M-III)?  I'm only suggesting this because I think you may be getting "burnt out," and I don't know how you kept up your pace in M-II so long anyway.  You can be part of and enjoy these games without having to post novels.  Not that posting novels can't be fun, but you shouldn't feel obligated to do so if you join.

Of course it's your decision to stay or go.  That said, I'd love to have you in this game and think you'd add a lot to it. 

[Galzria]

Nah, I'll stay. It's not so much a burn-out thing as getting upset about being accused of belittling people (basically). Something I never intended if it felt that way, and would never do. I pointed out with (I believe), an Eevee-O exchange, that things shouldn't get personal, and should remain fun for all parties.

Writing books, fighting for my beliefs, posting 1000 times a day about pineapples: I don't mind all of that. Using emoticons and being certain, sometimes I do just to annoy Robz.

But I would never intentionally insult or belittle anyone, and was fuming (a bit) over being accused of doing so. It's not who I am, well, anywhere. And yeah, I took it a bit personal.

Still want in here. If only because I'm "certain" that you'll run a rather enjoyable game.

[Insomniac]

Come on only one more! SPACE AND TIME ARE LIMITED. (While supplies last, this is a limited time offer, this offer has not been approved by the FDA and may or may not include side affects including nausea, heartburn, and drowsiness)

[Morgrim7]

Haha...
We're sorry, all poeple who want to play Mafia are currently playing other games. Please hold. Your call is very important to us. The next available player will be with you in 3 hours.

[Galzria]

Haha...
We're sorry, all poeple who want to play Mafia are currently playing other games. Please hold. Your call is very important to us. The next available player will be with you in 3 hours.

*Starts playing Kenny G. soundtrack*

[Grujah]

I want to clarify 2 more things:
What happends if 2 persons target to kill each other? (Vigilante and Witch for example?)
Also if A kills B and B kills C?

more general:
only 1 mafia actually does the actual kill, and mafia need to choose that killer, right?
So you need to block that specific mafia player to stop the kill, right?

[Galzria]

To your second question: yes. You must stop that member.

Not sure on your first, but I think they happen simultaneously, so they all die.

[jotheonah]

thinking about it... keep saying I'm just gonna spectate the next one.

[Robz888]

thinking about it... keep saying I'm just gonna spectate the next one.

You should play!

[Voltgloss]

I want to clarify 2 more things:
What happends if 2 persons target to kill each other? (Vigilante and Witch for example?)
Also if A kills B and B kills C?

Kills happen simultaneously.  Or, more accurately, getting killed during the night doesn't stop you from using your night ability.  So if, say, a Militiaman and a Witch target each other, they both die (or, if the Witch chose One-Shot Bulletproof, the Militiaman dies and the Witch's Bulletproof is used up).

more general:
only 1 mafia actually does the actual kill, and mafia need to choose that killer, right?
So you need to block that specific mafia player to stop the kill, right?

This is correct.  The killer could be any member of the Mafia.  Note, though, that if the Mafia Thief does the kill, he can't simultaneously use his roleblock ability.

[jotheonah]

So I'd like to play, but Glooble and I are RL acquaintances. We don't live in the same place but we talk often. We can make a pact not to talk about the game, but I totally understand if the existence of such a relationship would be troubling to other players, and I would have no hard feelings about sitting out.

[Voltgloss]

So I'd like to play, but Glooble and I are RL acquaintances. We don't live in the same place but we talk often. We can make a pact not to talk about the game, but I totally understand if the existence of such a relationship would be troubling to other players, and I would have no hard feelings about sitting out.

As moderator, I don't have a problem with this.  It doesn't seem any more of an issue than players' ability to PM each other through the forum.  We're all making an implicit pact not to use those PMs to talk to each other about the game (unless explicitly authorized by the game rules).  I don't see any reason such a pact can't extend to RL discussions as well.

Any signed-up players have an issue with this?

Assuming no objections come in, I anticipate sending role PMs out this evening (like around 11:00 p.m. or so EDT) and officially launching the game/starting the Day 1 clock at midnight. 

[Robz888]

I have no problem with it. We have to assume each other's best intentions.

[Insomniac]

I have no objections, as Volt points out we're all basically agreeing to not cheat by PMing except when allowed. You guys would make a strong mafia pair though as you could talk in real life.

VOTE: jotheonah

(Just kidding)

UNVOTE

[Galzria]

No problems. Would be glad to have you J.

[popsofctown]

So I'd like to play, but Glooble and I are RL acquaintances. We don't live in the same place but we talk often. We can make a pact not to talk about the game, but I totally understand if the existence of such a relationship would be troubling to other players, and I would have no hard feelings about sitting out.

Yeah, just don't talk about the game.  I've done it, it's not that hard.

[Grujah]

Can you publicly claim that you are Mason?
I mean, Masons should keep their society secret and stuff. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

POTENTIAL 13th PLAYER:

I am intrigued with the notion of playing, but I've never played before, and have only read parts of M III. I'm not interested in reading any of M I or MII, as the proposed 2 week interval between deadlines would seem to guarantee that more reading will be required for M IV than any of the previous iterations.  Given all that, would I be welcome, and more importantly, would I be an asset to the game?

[Axxle]

@Voltgloss: Can I request that the mafia and potential masons be created a quicktopic for their discussion? This will allow people to look at their discussion after the game is over and might make it more interesting for after game discussion

[popsofctown]

Yes SFS.  You're one of my favorite f.ds posters.

[Axxle]

POTENTIAL 13th PLAYER:

I am intrigued with the notion of playing, but I've never played before, and have only read parts of M III. I'm not interested in reading any of M I or MII, as the proposed 2 week interval between deadlines would seem to guarantee that more reading will be required for M IV than any of the previous iterations.  Given all that, would I be welcome, and more importantly, would I be an asset to the game?

I think MI and MII both had 2 week deadlines (MII definitely did), but those were never reached.  And yes, we'd love to have you in the game.  Just have your build orders ready before the game starts

[popsofctown]

I changed my mind.  We're not letting you in unless you read MI and MII, read all of my councilroom logs for games in which I purchase a Gardens, and watch twelve Zerg fast expand replays.

Then you can play.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I have a fan club???

And how did you know I play Zerg?

[popsofctown]

You ask too many questions.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I changed my mind.  We're not letting you in unless you read MI and MII, read all of my councilroom logs for games in which I purchase a Gardens, and watch twelve Zerg fast expand replays.

Then you can play.

If I've counted correctly, you've bought a Gardens in 133 games.  109 would have been my limit.

What now?

Also, for what it's worth, if I play, I (sort of) promise not to use emoticons.  Maybe.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You ask too many questions.

Ah, so I'm well suited to be an investigator.

[popsofctown]

You shouldn't be counting the losses.  Or acknowledging they exist.  It should go without saying.

Hey who upvoted me somewhere on the forums while I was at exactly 100 respect?

[Axxle]

You shouldn't be counting the losses.  Or acknowledging they exist.  It should go without saying.

Hey who upvoted me somewhere on the forums while I was at exactly 100 respect?

Don't worry, I'll find somewhere I upvoted you and remove it

edit: and done! :Evil face:

[Green Opal]

Hi! I haven't posted here much but I'm around these forums a lot, and have been enjoying watching the other Mafia games go through. Assuming someone more deserving doesn't want the space I'd like to play!

[Robz888]

It's up to Volt but I would be fine including all these people even in excess of 13, and then just adjusting number of roles and mafia accordingly. But whatever Volt wants is totally acceptable.

[popsofctown]

It's good to have an odd number of players.

[Green Opal]

Oops, I totally didn't read the post from someone else looking to play before mine. Feel free to ignore me, sorry!

[O]

It's good to have an odd number of players.

Or night-start with an even number?

[popsofctown]

Night starts kinda suck.  Though I shouldn't knock it before I try it, I guess.  Don't like the idea of them though..

Is Green Opal's avatar Young Witch art?  I don't own the card depicted but I'm curious.

[Voltgloss]

Well, looks like we had 13 with jotheonah, and now SFS and Green Opal make 15, which I think is still workable with my planned setup.  So, hey, more the merrier (and ending on an odd number)!  15 it is, with a Day start.  I will adjust the opening post accordingly. 

I will close sign-ups now and get PMs out once the roles are rando-assigned.  There will then be a delay of roughly 6-12 hours before game start, to let teams (Mafia, Masons) have some pre-game discussion, and to let a Witch (if there is one) choose their passive ability.  Day 1 will begin either tonight at midnight EDT or tomorrow morning some time between 6:00 and 8:00 EDT. 

[O]

Night starts kinda suck.  Though I shouldn't knock it before I try it, I guess.  Don't like the idea of them though..

Is Green Opal's avatar Young Witch art?  I don't own the card depicted but I'm curious.

I find night start far preferable to day start. There is concrete information to be had D1 of the voting, even if nobody's going to release it.

It does suck for the people killing N1, though.

[Green Opal]

Awesome, thanks! And that is indeed Young Witch art, shamelessly stolen from Grujah's excellent thread.

[popsofctown]

What set is Young Witch from?  I want one.

Even though my mom refuses to play games with curses (

[Grujah]

Cornucopia.

And not shamelessly stolen, its there to be used. 

[Voltgloss]

@Voltgloss: Can I request that the mafia and potential masons be created a quicktopic for their discussion? This will allow people to look at their discussion after the game is over and might make it more interesting for after game discussion

Done.

[Voltgloss]

Most of the players have confirmed receipt of their roles, but not all have yet.  Given the time zones at play, I don't anticipate receiving the last outstanding confirmations until the morning (EDT) at the earliest.  So the start of Day 1 will likely be some time around or before 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning (EDT), based on (1) when I receive the last confirmations and (2) when I wake up.    If I haven't received all confirmations by then I will post to that effect.  I don't want to start until all confirmations are in.

[Dsell]

Voltgloss, since you haven't specifically said this is locked until we start I assume this is ok?

I want to let everyone know up front that I will be on a weeklong vacation beginning June 15. It is very doubtful that I will have wifi during this time so I will be absent from the game for about a week.

Sorry about this everybody, I'm kinda bummed I'm missing time too (but not to go on vacation! Super excited about that!  ), but I got permission before the game. Anyway, don't envy the reading I'll have when I get back.

[Dsell]

Awkward parenthesis....can't....edit....

[Galzria]

To be fair, I didn't confirm my first two games, so I don't know that everyone will here.

[Axxle]

Game hasn't started yet, so you can edit, maybe?

[Axxle]

Oh wait, I guess since we have our roles then you can't.

[Axxle]

I propose the thread gets "LOCKED" till Day one starts.

[Voltgloss]

I'm actually only waiting on one person now - Tables - who hasn't logged into the forum since I sent PMs out, so I know for sure he hasn't received his yet.  As he is U.K. timezone, I expect to receive his confirmation in (what is for me) the wee hours of the morning, after which I'll start the Day officially.

Re: Dsell's vacation:  Given the importance of having all players around for the first lynch deadline, I am going to set an extended deadline for Day 1 - out to June 25 (i.e., three weeks) - so there is no possibility of the lynch deadline occurring while Dsell is out of pocket. 

If Day 1 ends while Dsell is away, there will be an extended Night 1 until Dsell returns.  I realize this slows things down, but I don't want to tip whether Dsell has a power role with a nighttime power. 

I will update the intro post accordingly.

Until then, THREAD LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Tables still hasn't logged into the forum to see that we're ready to begin.  Once he has and has confirmed his role assignment, I'll start this up.  Watch this space.

EDIT:  Tables has just confirmed.  Anticipating Day 1 start around noon EDT.

[Voltgloss]

Had a chance to get this underway earlier than anticipated and figured, hey, why wait further?  I'm as anxious as the rest of you to see the carnagefun begin. 

First, some mood music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTcxqhKedAU

Fifteen people stood gathered at the only exit from the Estate.  The solid iron portcullis blocking the gate mocked any attempt at egress without the proper key.  And that key, of course, was nowhere to be found.

Fifteen people thought back to the morning's breakfast Feast.  ("It's time for breakFEAST!" the Lord had jovially greeted them.  Happier times.)  They remembered the food taster carefully being served a sample of each dish provided, including the Lord's signature roast suckling pig.  They knew the food taster survived, whereupon all staff withdrew and the Lord and his guests tucked in.  Which meant that the poison - or acid - or whatever it was that had slain the Lord so, ah, emphatically - had to have been introduced by one of them.

Fifteen people had the same word on their minds.  "Mafia."  Only the Mafia had the resources, talent, and sheer psycopathy to start this campaign of death and terror.  And they would certainly wage it to the end.  The end, in this case, meaning the death or destruction of the Town's leaders.  Starting with the Lord... and ending with themselves.

Fifteen people considered the Town's only one chance.  That the "chosen" fifteen band together and, through reasoning, investigation, and perhaps a solid dose of luck, ferret out the Mafia hiding in their midst.  In a sense, the Mafia were trapped there just as much as the Townies.  The only way to hide would be in plain sight.

Fifteen people began to sweat, and the crucible's fire was just getting started.  Who would be lynched by the angry mob?  Who would die, silently (or not), in the night?  Who would be left standing when the portcullis was finally raised?  Who would prove the victor...

...WITHIN THESE ESTATE WALLS?

Day 1 Start

Not voting: Galzria, Dsell, Insomniac, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, O, Axxle, theorel, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Green Opal

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT 

[Captain_Frisk]

+1 For moderating, and for excellent theme music - but I'll go one step further and suggest an orchestral version:

#t=20s

[Grujah]

Ok, Help a noob out. I've never played forum mafia (only IRL), as we start on a day I have no idea what to base any suspicion on. Ok, there is between 2 and 5 scum, so we are between 13.333% and 30% likely to guess if we lynch randomly, but how do we improve these chances?

Is there any role worth claiming this early? It puts a big target on your head but as we might as well have a Doctor of some sort it might not be (that?) bad?

[Axxle]

Everyone should read this (and the second part): http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=12228

I only just found it the other day and found it very useful for getting out of the starting random mindset.

[Axxle]

Is there any role worth claiming this early? It puts a big target on your head but as we might as well have a Doctor of some sort it might not be (that?) bad?

You should not role claim early.  Role claim when you have valuable information to share and no one is listening to you without a role claim or if you're about to get lynched since there's no guarantee that we have a protective role to prevent nightkills.

[Grujah]

Thats .. a useful article, but it didn't help me much.
Ok, it tells you how to argue, and I got that, but what confuses me is this.. Day 1 "livelock" situation. I mean, I have no objective reason to campaign/argue against anyone, nor to candidate anyone in particular to lynch; but as all other players(town or scum pretending to be town) are in same (at least it seems to me) situation as I am - none really has anything in particular against anyone else, they cannot argue/campaign/propose lynching either.

I mean, who do I argue right now? Or what is my optimal move right now? I don't know why I would gain any "player points" for arguing/throwing out of the blue. Yes, I get it can get responses, and hence some info out, but I don't see a reason for somebody to answer a random accusation or..

Like, I ask something like.. Who do you think we should lynch? I somewhat understood for (very loosely) watching other mafias here that we should lynch on day1.


@Axxle 2nd post - that makes sense.

[Insomniac]

I suspect Robz! because mafia II carries over into mafia iv right! Also hes had like one whole hour to respond and has said nothing SCUMMY!

Just kidding.

Anyways I'm here!

[Axxle]

Right now you can't really argue with many people.  I've said something and Captain Frisk has said something and that's it.  You can poke at what we've said so far and see our responses and that's probably a good thing.  You're also doing correctly by asking questions from everyone, since that will generate discussion. (remember to ask good questions though).

[Grujah]

Well, you do seem less scummy for being helpful, but I don't believe I can assume much (if anything) solely on that. 

[jotheonah]

Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.

[Galzria]

Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.

Well, if you want to find scum so much today (admirable goal, who doesn't? (aside from scum)), what are your proposed methods? What are you going to look for? I think you would agree nobody is going to jump up and down screaming "Me! Pick me! I'm scum!". So, what should we look fir?

[Insomniac]

Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.

Well, if you want to find scum so much today (admirable goal, who doesn't? (aside from scum)), what are your proposed methods? What are you going to look for? I think you would agree nobody is going to jump up and down screaming "Me! Pick me! I'm scum!". So, what should we look fir?

Even if they did that do we LEARN anything from lynching them except if they were lying? Someone screaming I'm scum is the least likely to be beneficial as they drew the attention to themselves.

[Galzria]

@Insomniac:

Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?

If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?

[Insomniac]

@Insomniac:

Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?

If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?

No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later. By not lynching someone who screams IM SCUM. We can actually gain some information going into day 2.

For example in
Mafia I - There was soo much information going into day 2, who pushed for TINAS? who pushed for theory? Similarities?
Mafia II - Who pushed for Morgrim, who turned the tides toward him?

This is some information we hope to achieve, if there is reason to believe that the person who screamed scum is scum, yes lets vote for them, but lets do so after we get information otherwise we just end up back where we started and well I hate day 1 for that.

[jotheonah]

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.

[Captain_Frisk]

Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.

Isn't this always the goal? 

I'm going to do my best from refraining from discussion of that ongoing game - but I suspect it may be unavoidable.

@Grujah

As for what to do at this point - I'm a n00b too.  We have a lot longer than the other game - 21 days?!?!?

Personally - I'm a believer in early voting as I believe it to foster the release of information via voting patterns and potential roleclaims that merely "suspecting someone" does not.  We can all sit here and suspect on someone until the cows come home - but they are not going to claim a role until they gets some votes on their head.

That roleclaim is information that can be investigated as the game goes onward, and the names of the people who voted for him is interesting as well.

Reading other mafia forums, I saw voting open immediately - with 0 suspicion, so I am willing to do this as well.  Naturally because it isn't based on real suspicion, I'm likely to unvote it in the future.

"O" is a believer in random voting.  Some people don't like this - and it results in an argument every time he does it.

RobZ seems to be a believer in talking and being sure before casting votes.

Some people think that posting friendly / unsubstantial / joke posts is a sign of Scum trying to look active to the town.  Other people say that posting posts that are "helpful" is too obviously town - and thus you must be scum.

Basically:


Is the person too quiet?  - They are flying under the radar and must be scum.
Is the person posting too much drivel?    - They are trying to look active without actually helping the town - totally scummy.
Is the person posting helpful things? - This is so obviously town - that it must be scum hiding
Is the person kindof hiding in the middle of the pack? - Scum doesn't want to stand out.

[Galzria]

@Grujah

I don't fully buy the "newb" argument anymore. There are previous games up to have read if you were really unsure of how day 1 can go, but even if you didn't feel like reading them (no problem, won't hold it against you), I've come to have too much respect for the intelligence of the members of this forum. I've read many of your posts elsewhere, and know that my thoughts on the general populace are no different individually for you.

With that said, your question regarding what roles should reveal strikes me as odd. All of the roles are in the first post to review. Which of those did you think might have reason to, and why?

[Axxle]

@Insomniac:

Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?

If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?

No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.

Oh god no.  You missed the whole point of the article.  It says we need to hold everyone accountable for all their actions even in RVS.  This lets us get out of RVS much faster.

[Robz888]

Hello everyone.

I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).

I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.

[Tables]

I believe Axxle to be town.

Discuss.

[Robz888]

I believe Axxle to be town.

Discuss.

I have no reason to disbelieve you or your claim.

[Grujah]

If something I learned from BSG, I'd lynch a guy saying "I'm a scum" without breaking a sweat. (comparing it with Human playing a negative card into voting.. just because).

It's a terrible move, if you are town it makes no absolutely no sense to do it (maaaybe if somehow you are trying to protect a power role you know/are sure of and who is being endangered), it is a scummy move to sow discontent, as I said, wouldn't break a sweat.

(this was an answer to up to Insomniac's post, I'd have to read other posts later and respond).

[Insomniac]

@Insomniac:

Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?

If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?

I'm not saying they aren't accountable for what they say at all.

I'm saying that if we all hammered jotheonah right now for saying "I'm scum" we wouldn't gain information. We'd see if he's town or mafia but we would have no real information on anyone else. So I'm hoping that we would ACTUALLY wait to hammer jotheonah or actually move to day 2 until we have information.

No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.

Oh god no.  You missed the whole point of the article.  It says we need to hold everyone accountable for all their actions even in RVS.  This lets us get out of RVS much faster.

[Insomniac]

@Insomniac:

Are you suggesting that if somebody did scream "Pick me, I'm scum", that we should ignore them because they drew the suspicion on themselves? May I infer by that, that you believe the Mafia will be doing very little to act suspicious, and the best they can to appear town?

If that's true, will your suspicions be towards those who appear town?

I'm not saying they aren't accountable for what they say at all.

I'm saying that if we all hammered jotheonah right now for saying "I'm scum" we wouldn't gain information. We'd see if he's town or mafia but we would have no real information on anyone else. So I'm hoping that we would ACTUALLY wait to hammer jotheonah or actually move to day 2 until we have information.

No. Im suggesting that after reading the article Axxle posted that if someone did scream IM SCUM. They should be ignored during the Day 1 "random voting stage" and we can come back to them later.

Oh god no.  You missed the whole point of the article.  It says we need to hold everyone accountable for all their actions even in RVS.  This lets us get out of RVS much faster.

Ok so for whatever reason my answer got removed.

I'm not saying they aren't accountable for that what Im saying is.

Say jotheonah jumps up and says "I'M SCUM!" which he did already jokingly. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill him, I'm also not saying he isn't responsible for his actions. What I AM saying is that if we lynch him right now we have no new information on day 2 except whether or not he was lying. We still have no better idea where the mafia is which is information I'd like to have going forward. I'm not even saying he shouldn't be lynched day 1 for his claim. But I AM suggesting that the longer day 1 is drawn out the better it is for the town.

[Robz888]

Say jotheonah jumps up and says "I'M SCUM!" which he did already jokingly. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill him, I'm also not saying he isn't responsible for his actions. What I AM saying is that if we lynch him right now we have no new information on day 2 except whether or not he was lying. We still have no better idea where the mafia is which is information I'd like to have going forward. I'm not even saying he shouldn't be lynched day 1 for his claim. But I AM suggesting that the longer day 1 is drawn out the better it is for the town.

Yeah, but we aren't just lynching to gain information. We are lynching to kill the mafia. Presumably we thought he was mafia, which was why we voted for him (in this imaginary scenario).

Personally, I'm starting to sour on people voting for any reason other than "I find it more likely than not that this person is mafia."

Here are some of the ones I don't like:

"Well, we have to kill SOMEONE."
"This person is being unhelpful."

The voting for somebody who has been too quiet is also okay, because it just isn't fair if the mafia could get away with not talking at all.

[Galzria]

@Insomniac

"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"

Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.

[jotheonah]

Say jotheonah jumps up and says "I'M SCUM!" which he did already jokingly. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill him, I'm also not saying he isn't responsible for his actions. What I AM saying is that if we lynch him right now we have no new information on day 2 except whether or not he was lying. We still have no better idea where the mafia is which is information I'd like to have going forward. I'm not even saying he shouldn't be lynched day 1 for his claim. But I AM suggesting that the longer day 1 is drawn out the better it is for the town.

Yeah, but we aren't just lynching to gain information. We are lynching to kill the mafia. Presumably we thought he was mafia, which was why we voted for him (in this imaginary scenario).

Personally, I'm starting to sour on people voting for any reason other than "I find it more likely than not that this person is mafia."

Here are some of the ones I don't like:

"Well, we have to kill SOMEONE."
"This person is being unhelpful."

The voting for somebody who has been too quiet is also okay, because it just isn't fair if the mafia could get away with not talking at all.

This (the too quiet thing) is called a policy lynch, and it seems to be an accepted practice in the mafiascum community. Which is not to say it's good, but it does make a certain sense.

[Galzria]

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.

No problem J, just don't forget the question. I am curious.

[Tables]

The longer day 1 draws out, the more posts and information there is available to be analysed. The more posts there are, the easier it is to spot where the mafia might be, and to scumhunt effectively. We don't need to use all 3 weeks, of course, but ending the day early because we can is a sure-fire way to losing (Look at Mafia II: Morgrim ended the day early, which stopped me finishing my note taking before the end of the day, which after starting in the night had left me very suspicious of three people, two of which were mafia).

Robz: Voting for someone who's been too quiet is often a mafia move as much as anything. Mafia players rarely want to just sit there in silence, and are if anything more likely to get prods from their teammates to be more active. As a way to get them to talk, well, sure, but as a target for lynching... it's a bad move. It's essentially justifying a random vote.

[Insomniac]

@Galz. Sure. Say with no other information we lynch jotheonah right now for saying I'm scum. How do we have any information on day 2 that we didn't have in the RVS? Maybe we hit mafia maybe we didn't. (I'm suggesting that the next 8 posts contain nothing other than a vote for J).

Now suppose that day 1 goes longer and consists of 5 pages or something, now we have some REAL information, we have accusations defenses, bandwagons and voting order, who voted where, when and why.

You'll notice that in Mafia I one of my main reasons for suspecting Robz was that he was the penultimate on Morgrim, pushed hard for morgrim all day and set up Volt as a fall guy (with the permission thing)

@Robz: I'm aware we aren't just lynching for information, and I wouldn't vote for anyone who didnt seem scummy, but I do think we should try to have real information day 1 before just ending it.

@Tables: I have no reason to believe or disbelieve this claim yet.

@ALL: The main misconception is that I don't think someone screaming lynch me is important to target right away, if they're mafia thats fine but who are they working with and why did they throw themselves under a bus


Pre-Post Edit:Tables is effectively saying what I am. We don't need to use all 21 days but we dont need to fast close it either we need the information we can get to scumhunt.

[Grujah]

@G - it deosn't have much to do with me being smart or not; I cannot think of any game that I regularly play in which you can just jump in without playing before without a) being exceptionally intelligent b) being overinformed on everything about the game and c) having experience in similar games. I do have c), and I am not 'that' smart, I believe I'm lacking b) (both on general mafia stratagy and on M1/2/3 games).

As for me inquering about roleclaim, I later realised it might have been a mistake, as possibly targets me as a power role and I'm asking on how to proceed. My intention was to gain knowledge/insight about strategy/thinking behind power roles.
And to answer the question, I guess:
A one shot-cop/doc (maybe others too?) might want to claim, and if they survive and "prove" their role, they might throw mafia off the real cop/doc.
It was unclear to me is any role other than doc a good reason to claim as you might get protected (whether or not you are what you claim to be).


@Robz - that kinda makes sense, but doesn't make you any less scummy (most people would bring "you said differently in M2" anyway).

Gotta study now, I hope I can do that and not get too distracted with this.

@Tables - Axxle seems fine to me.
----
Also, stating this:

If something I learned from BSG, I'd lynch a guy saying "I'm a scum" without breaking a sweat. (comparing it with Human playing a negative card into voting.. just because).

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.

I feel inclined to vote j.
It's a stupid and irrational move, jokingly or not.

[Robz888]

Robz: Voting for someone who's been too quiet is often a mafia move as much as anything. Mafia players rarely want to just sit there in silence, and are if anything more likely to get prods from their teammates to be more active. As a way to get them to talk, well, sure, but as a target for lynching... it's a bad move. It's essentially justifying a random vote.

Oh, yes I agree. I was only saying that I know some people like to vote for people who are quiet so that they will talk, and then they take off the vote. I am okay with that, because I don't want people being incentivized to avoid suspicion by never speaking.

But as I've indicated, I don't do that, and will only vote for someone who I think is more likely mafia than not, and only if such a candidate emerges.

[Tables]

Also another very good reason against an early day end: It (often) prevents the victim having a chance to defend themselves. If they have an important role like the cop, doctor or vigilante, we do NOT want to lynch them, and if we're in the mentality of 'don't lynch until we're sure' they get more time to claim. In fact, in general I consider giving the final vote suspicious, if the general consensus of everyone isn't already that the person has no chance to defend themselves successfully, and there's no more information to gain from the day. A person being at -1 from lynch is far from implying that.

[Tables]

Also as there've been three replies now just saying 'yeah okay' to my Axxle post, I think that scheme has kinda failed... intention was simply to get people questioning 'why' and ideally at least one person to disagree/suspect me from it, which would kickstart us straight into discussion.

Oh well.

I don't have any suspects yet. Hardly surprising, isn't it?

[Robz888]

Yeah, this is essentially the phase of the day where we all stand by the street and wait for a car crash. At some point, someone will misinterpret someone else, they will react poorly, and we will be off to the races.

[Galzria]

The longer day 1 draws out, the more posts and information there is available to be analysed. The more posts there are, the easier it is to spot where the mafia might be, and to scumhunt effectively. We don't need to use all 3 weeks, of course, but ending the day early because we can is a sure-fire way to losing (Look at Mafia II: Morgrim ended the day early, which stopped me finishing my note taking before the end of the day, which after starting in the night had left me very suspicious of three people, two of which were mafia).

Like I mentioned before, I'm certainly in no hurry to lynch, but do you disagree that dragging on day 1 for the [/i]sole purpose[/i] of letting people talk more can be as detrimental (and often more) than helpful? The reasons I listed above are that they have longer to build allegiances, and they have longer to spread confusion by dividing the townand getting us to quarrel amongst ourselves. In a 9 player game, that effect was seen on a smaller scale, so want quite as apparent (though it was there). In a 13 player game, it was VERY apparent. And here we have 15 people. It's going to devolve into chaos the longer it has the opportunity to do so. Do you disagree?

[Green Opal]

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Insomniac

"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"

Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.

I think this is essentially another flavor of the directed vs. random lynch debate.

The longer you discuss, the more information you obtain - but I tend to agree that you are less likely to lynch mafia because you are being directed by people with information.

On the other side, the faster you lynch, the better chance you have of being "correct" - because of less steering, but the less information you obtain via analysis of voting patterns and posting tendencies.

As for lynch vs. no lynch, I tend to favor lynching. 

Looking at Mafia I - lets say that that theory had not been lynched on Day 1.  Goober still would have died probably.  Would TINAS still have investigated Ozle?  Would they have been able to get all 4 town votes to lynch Ozle in the TINAS claim?  Getting all 4 votes is harder than getting 3 - as anyone who's ever tried to pick an activity for a group of people probably knows (board game to play on game night, movie to watch, where to go for dinner, etc.)

With more players - and an unknown amount of scum, perhaps it is more reasonable.  Lets say we're 15 with worst case 5 scum.... 8 required to lynch.  If we lynch town, and 1 dies overnight, we're left with 13 and 5 scum, all 7 out of 8 town required to lynch. (87.5%)

If we don't lynch, we're left with 14 and 5 scum, with 8 out of 9 required to lynch. (88.9% required to lynch).

About equivalent except for the getting 8 to agree vs. getting 7 to agree problem.  That said, you do have an extra body.

And now: because I have said I favor early voting (not necessarily early lynching)

VOTE: jotheonah - as he has already told us he is scum.

[Galzria]

Also another very good reason against an early day end: It (often) prevents the victim having a chance to defend themselves. If they have an important role like the cop, doctor or vigilante, we do NOT want to lynch them, and if we're in the mentality of 'don't lynch until we're sure' they get more time to claim. In fact, in general I consider giving the final vote suspicious, if the general consensus of everyone isn't already that the person has no chance to defend themselves successfully, and there's no more information to gain from the day. A person being at -1 from lynch is far from implying that.

I absolutely agree with your point about allowing any and all chance for a defense. I don't, however, find the ultimate vote as scummy. It COULD be a Mafia, but is a whole lot more dangerous place for them to put themselves.

Consider, with 8 to lynch, if a player already has 7, and there is an unvoted Mafia, there is a good chance the person will be lynched regardless. There must be some consensus that got the person to 7 to begin with, right? And if any vote slot will naturally "appear" scummy, it's the final one. I believe Mafia are MUCH more inclined not to vote there, and then use the innocent person who does as a target day 2. The penultimate vote is much more revealing to me. Thoughts?

[Axxle]

We're talking way too much theory and not enough game meat.  One of the things that the article I linked to tried to warn us about. Even more so considering what kind of forum we are on. We'll fall into the trap of voting for people who don't agree with our specific playstyle instead of who we think is scummy.

Thank you Tables for trying to create discussion but that kind of passive questioning doesn't seem to be getting us anywhere either.

jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.

I will come up with something to spur conversation in a sec, just want to get this out there.

[Green Opal]

@Galzria: Doesn't that logic keep recurring backwards somewhat though? If, according to your (perfectly reasonable) logic, the penultimate vote is the scummiest, then double-bluffing mafia would be interested in avoiding it, meaning it's more likely to be a town vote. And so on and so forth.
Of course, that leaves us in the position of not being able to extra any information from voter order which obviously isn't accurate either. So take any thoughts with a pinch of salt.

[Voltgloss]

Rules Clarification:  There are, at minimum, ELEVEN Town players.  The maximum total number of Anti-Town players is FOUR.  (If there are four Mafia players, there is no Witch.)

[Galzria]

@ C.F. - +1 for using the math I posted in M-III. Lynching simply IS mathematically better than no lynching. However, informed lynching IS better than random lynching, which is, I believe, the crux of Axxle's referenced article. So +1 to him too.

[Axxle]

Actually the easiest way is to turn Tables's question around:
Tables: You think I'm town. Why? Why didn't you explain your position before asking everyone else? Doing so it looks like you are just testing the water before explaining your own point of view.

[Grujah]

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

[Axxle]

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it.  It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something.  People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.

[Galzria]

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

Not at all. C.F. Could very easily be Mafia. I just think he made a good point, and I agree with him on it. I don't always upvote, but will if the inclination strikes me.

[Galzria]

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

I don't like using +1 because it's way to ambiguous to what you mean by it.  It could just mean "good point" or "I like the flavor" or something.  People need to explicitly state what they like about a post.

And if you look, I believe I did. But hopefully my last post clarified any remaining ambiguities. I think the math is sound, it was a well made point.

[Axxle]

So, are we to discern +1 on posts as sign of people believe in someones towniness?
As I don't use that feature at all, nor look at it, might need to.

Not at all. C.F. Could very easily be Mafia. I just think he made a good point, and I agree with him on it. I don't always upvote, but will if the inclination strikes me.

Inb4 Dos Equis meme.

It wasn't directed at you but at Grujah.

[Grujah]

What got me is whether it meant "+1, good post, here's why" or "+1, good post, here's why, you seem less scummy than before". Tha t is, in more general term, does making "good points" about game globally make you less scummy?


So, also, is that "CF could very easily" C.F. could be mafia just as easy as anyone or more easily than everyone else?

[Galzria]

 Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?

[Captain_Frisk]

@ C.F. - +1 for using the math I posted in M-III. Lynching simply IS mathematically better than no lynching. However, informed lynching IS better than random lynching, which is, I believe, the crux of Axxle's referenced article. So +1 to him too.

Yes - I wanted to give you credit, but I'm really trying hard to not mention that game here, although I look forward to discussing with you when it is over.

Regarding penultimate voting - i decided to check:

Mafia I: O casts penultimate vote for theory, ftl hammers - both town - although everyone in the universe thought O was mafia.  Mafia accomplished this with only 1 vote for theory (3rd vote)

Mafia II: RobZ casts penultimate vote, Morgrim self hammers.  Both mafia voted for lynch.  Not sure if we can draw conclusions here because of the early termination of voting.

[Grujah]

What is a RVS?
Nevermind, just googled it. Random Voting Stage, apparently.

[Galzria]

What got me is whether it meant "+1, good post, here's why" or "+1, good post, here's why, you seem less scummy than before". Tha t is, in more general term, does making "good points" about game globally make you less scummy?


So, also, is that "CF could very easily" C.F. could be mafia just as easy as anyone or more easily than everyone else?

Yes, yes he could. We all could very easily be Mafia. I'm not writing anybody but myself out of that category.

[jotheonah]

jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.

HUMOR IS ANTI-TOWN. ALL LEVITY MUST BE ELIMINATED.

[Insomniac]

What is a RVS?

Random voting stage, its part 2 of the article axxle linked. Its probably the more useful part to which he was referring you. (Part 1 is about how to argue)

[Grujah]

Oh, dang.
I accidently clicked edit instead of quote on my post.
 

[Grujah]

What is a RVS?

Random voting stage, its part 2 of the article axxle linked. Its probably the more useful part to which he was referring you. (Part 1 is about how to argue)

There is part two? 
Good thing you mentioned it, I totally missed it.

[popsofctown]

Warning - while you were reading 8 new replies have been posted.  You may wish to review your post.
Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted.  You may wish to review your post.

[Captain_Frisk]

Warning - while you were reading 8 new replies have been posted.  You may wish to review your post.
Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted.  You may wish to review your post.

This is a serious problem. By the time you post anything more than a one liner - the post that you're quoting is now off the page.  It's going to make re-reading this later very difficult.

[popsofctown]

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

[Galzria]

@Galzria: Doesn't that logic keep recurring backwards somewhat though? If, according to your (perfectly reasonable) logic, the penultimate vote is the scummiest, then double-bluffing mafia would be interested in avoiding it, meaning it's more likely to be a town vote. And so on and so forth.
Of course, that leaves us in the position of not being able to extra any information from voter order which obviously isn't accurate either. So take any thoughts with a pinch of salt.

Sorry, didn't mean to ignore you here:

Yes, you could get into that spiral... But at some point, looking at the players around you, you have to wonder how far a bluff might ACTUALLY go.

People suspect vote #1, as it's the least reasoned (often)
People suspect the final vote because it's the one to get the job done
People suspect everything in between as bandwagon

I would posit that perhaps, there really is nothing to be gained from vote order when considered as it's own entity. But combined with reasons given, past stances, and stated preference for day length (By the way, what are your thoughts on allowing the day to go on, for the sole purpose of getting more posts or there?), I believe there is much to be gained from vote order.

[Robz888]

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.

[O]

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

[O]

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.

That's insane. If you had 33% surity, and the surity was directly translatable into actual odds a person is mafia, then if we random-voted with 33% odds the town would have great chances of winning (I'm pretty sure the math here is right).

[Robz888]

Wow, posts accumulate in these quickly, that's something that's less apparent when browsing purely as an interested bystander...

Robz, while you were mafia in M2, you also both made a big point of your primary strategy being 'Don't lie about stuff if at all avoidable'. And just as a general case, choosing no lynch has to have some dramatic gains in information to be even potentially worthwhile, given the town is sacrificing people at night for it. But then that's basically the argument you made last time so you're already perfectly aware of it. Obviously, not voting with intent to lynch unless you're reasonably suspicious of someone is sensible preservational play, but how sure of yourself would you want to be of your suspicions before going ahead with anything?
So far? Nothing has looked suspicious to me. But then we're one and a half pages into day 1, so what else is new.

So, my big thing is--I would rather lose no one than lose a member of the town on Day 1. This is because after Night 1, we will have a kill to evaluate who could have done it, and potentially Role Townies learning things. On Day 1 we have absolutely nothing. That doesn't mean I'm aiming not to lynch, or I don't want to lynch--but I will not lynch for the sake of lynching.

How sure of my suspicions? To vote for someone in any round, I would have to be more certain than not that they were mafia, so 51% sure on them, I guess. If I am more than 50% sure on a number of different people, then I may vote for the one with the most votes/greatest likelihood of lynching, rather than the one I am most certain about.

That's insane. If you had 33% surity, and the surity was directly translatable into actual odds a person is mafia, then if we random-voted with 33% odds the town would have great chances of winning (I'm pretty sure the math here is right).

Uh, I think you're right. I shouldn't have attached numbers. Forget the 51%. I just meant: more sure than not that they are mafia. So I could think Jo is more likely to be mafia than O, but I'm not going to vote for either of them if I still think Jo is more likely town than mafia. Okay?

[Axxle]

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?

Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?

[Galzria]

O, since you can't be deterred in your random vote, set each person of 15 up to a 4 second time window, then post. That fulfills the 60 second time stamp, so will hit someone, and keeps to your theme.

[Captain_Frisk]

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

Here we go again.

What I would say is pick something that you can not reliably predict.  Lets say: the share price of facebook - in cents at close today.  (Thats 2.5 hours from now I think?)

Take that number and "mod" it by 15.  If you aren't a computer programmer, that's the remainder that exists after you divide it by 15... this will give you a number between 0 and 14.

So if the final share price was 34.12, thats 3412 cents, which is 227 * 15 + 7 ... so the mod is 7 (http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/modulo-calculator/)

[jotheonah]

Is that ... 3 votes for me already? My aren't we a jumpy town. There's lots of folks who haven't even weighed in yet, probably because they're at work or asleep. So let's not give them too much catching up to do eh?

On my somewhat erratic posting style. I'm trying something different this game. Taking myself, and the whole thing just a little less seriously. I think it might actually end up being good for the town. It will certainly be good for my blood pressure. It's probably not the best place to look for scum Day 1, though. On Day 2, though, we can totes do the "Lynch J cause he's being weird thing." I will lead the charge.

Whoever said my play is antitown because it's distracting: Just stop being distracted by it. If my comments seem ignorable, ignore them. Everybody wins.

I will not be returning to this site for the next 4 1/2 hours for strictly RL reasons. I really mean it, I'm signing out and everything.

PPE: Oh man, O is playing? There goes my master plan of being O this game. Unless, O, do you wanna be me? Could be fun.

[O]

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?

Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?

Axxle's already rousing suspicion. I did it Game 1 as a joke, Game III as a joke, and now Game IV as a joke. Why wasn't Axxle hard and fast on my case in Mafia I?

Oh wait, he was mafia in Mafia I, so maybe he's changing his strategy because he's town. Or maybe its one of those WIFOM analysis paradoxes.

[Captain_Frisk]

O, since you can't be deterred in your random vote, set each person of 15 up to a 4 second time window, then post. That fulfills the 60 second time stamp, so will hit someone, and keeps to your theme.

O - please don't do this - because people will suspect that you're gaming the system because you control the post time.  This is just like morgrim and writing notes down on a piece of paper - that only he can see.

[Galzria]

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?

Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

also: Vote: O for claiming Jester.  Why would any townie do that?

I'm not attempting to argue my point regarding it, I'm trying to find out others thoughts. You seem distinctly set on doing one thing, and writing off others attempts to do the same, so for now, VOTE: AXXLE.

[O]

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

Here we go again.

What I would say is pick something that you can not reliably predict.  Lets say: the share price of facebook - in cents at close today.  (Thats 2.5 hours from now I think?)

Take that number and "mod" it by 15.  If you aren't a computer programmer, that's the remainder that exists after you divide it by 15... this will give you a number between 0 and 14.

So if the final share price was 34.12, thats 3412 cents, which is 227 * 15 + 7 ... so the mod is 7 (http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/modulo-calculator/)

I almost want to vote Captain Frisk for thinking that only computer-programmers know what mods are... 

But that's highly manipulatable since people can just say "ZOMG O LOOKED IT UP BEFOREHAND"

[O]

Also Galz I want it verifiable that I don't cheat. It's close enough when I use the seconds digit, 4 second timeframes are fify.

[O]

Iffy*

[Captain_Frisk]

I almost want to vote Captain Frisk for thinking that only computer-programmers know what mods are... 

But that's highly manipulatable since people can just say "ZOMG O LOOKED IT UP BEFOREHAND"

Sorry - mods are just something that I have never used in real life other than programming computers.

What i'm saying is - you announce your intent to vote randomly.  You announce your random methodology IN ADVANCE.

Then - when the event happens - you stick to whatever it was.

If you don't like facebook, then my suggestion for "# of justin bieber followers @ end of day" is also reasonable - but you'll have to wait longer.

[O]

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.

[Axxle]

O, a pure random vote is completely and utterly useless to town.  I don't see why you can't see that.  Mafia give clues even in Day 1 that you may be able to see Day 1.

I'm finding it annoying you keep saying you're Jester, it's useless and noisy and anti-town.  Is a joke a joke when it isn't funny?

Galzria: have you noticed all the numbers going around and OTHER people arguing what's right? People are arguing about theory whether you like it or not.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.

HUMOR
Post a troll thread on BGG about the strength of Only Buying Money and count how many posts it receives in an hour?
/HUMOR

[Axxle]

Oh I see- I thought you were talking about the current price of FB stock or something similar.

I think I have an idea.

HUMOR
Post a troll thread on BGG about the strength of Only Buying Money and count how many posts it receives in an hour?
/HUMOR

+1 for teh lolz that I needed.

[O]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

[Galzria]

Also Galz I want it verifiable that I don't cheat. It's close enough when I use the seconds digit, 4 second timeframes are fify.

Fair enough. You know my stance on the whole issue to begin with, so not much reason to get into it. Whichever method you decide to use is fine with me then. I'll be (mostly) ignoring it anyway. Don't worry, no cheating accusations (unless my name comes out. ).

[Grujah]

Well, if it is allowed..
I can encrypt all names with same password on
http://infoencrypt.com/
you choose one of the encrypted names and post it.
I reveal the password, and you see who to vote for.

[Galzria]

To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people calmly stood behind the locked portcullis, discussing their options and the best avenues by which they could find the Mafia among them.

Fifteen minutes later there were three sets of bruised knuckles, two tender jaws, a black eye, and six separate insults ranging all the way from "You'd fill a Moat with salt water and then stock it with giant slugs" up to the dreaded "Your idea of a good 5-2 opening is Duchy-Estate."

And the day was, yet, oh so very young.

Vote Count 1-1

jotheonah (2) - Captain_Frisk, popsofctown
O (1) - Axxle
Axxle (1) - Galzria

Not Voting (11) - Dsell, Insomniac, Robz888, O, theorel, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Green Opal

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Green Opal]

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.

What do you mean by a woodwork lurker? Not a loaded question, just don't know the term.

I would posit that perhaps, there really is nothing to be gained from vote order when considered as it's own entity. But combined with reasons given, past stances, and stated preference for day length (By the way, what are your thoughts on allowing the day to go on, for the sole purpose of getting more posts or there?), I believe there is much to be gained from vote order.

Absolutely! I wasn't trying to say that there's nothing to be gained from it, as that would be inaccurate. Having everything written publicly here should at least have any Mafia carefully consider when they place their votes, which if nothing else lowers the odds of someone getting hammered when we're not expecting it...

To answer your question, I'm of the opinion that at some point, people are just likely to end up reiterating points already made if a day drags on a while (thinking the battle between TINAS and Ozle in day 2 of M1, which seemed to end up with both people asking each other the same questions over and over) without any really useful information/analysis coming out, so would lean towards people trying to bring the day to a close when they have a reasoned opinion/decision. How long that takes is certainly going to depend though - at the moment everyone seems genuinely interested in gathering information, though I haven't really been attaching specific viewpoints to people completely. Yet.

More thoughts coming up on the current voting.

[Captain_Frisk]

Back on topic though, I think theory discussion is perfectly acceptable.  If people agree - then it gives you a common set of guidelines to measure peoples deviations from.

For example - If the consensus is that you should roleclaim @ LynchVotes - 1, and someone doesn't role claim, then they are either crazy like a fox (TINAS), or they are not a power role.

For example: If you explicitly know something to be bad play, and someone does it anyway - then that's information as well.  Either the person isn't thinking, is crazy, or is mafia.

The best example of this I can think would be Mafia II.  Going into day 3 - there are 3 town and 2 mafia.  If any member of the town misvotes - then the game is over, because the  two mafia can quick hammer him.  Sure enough, when

Thus - I was 90% sure that RobZ was Mafia when he opened the voting on Day 3.  A vanila townie wouldn't have enough information to put the game out there on a 50/50 shot at being right - when no hammer occurred over the remaining time, I was 100% sure.

[Captain_Frisk]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

Damnit O - this is a bad idea too.  There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving.  You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know.  You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.

Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?

[Grujah]

Youtube doesn't update viewcount in real-time but on some regular interval. So if anyone checks near 5PM, it 'should' be ok. Encypting, however, works always.

is it just me or forum is now extra-slow? I'm posting this from lynx (text-based browser) as a result.

[Robz888]

Not Voting (11) - Dsell, Insomniac, Robz888, O, theorel, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Green Opal

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch[/color]

I somehow forgot that there were a billion other people playing. I would really to hear from Thoerel and Glooble and SFS some point soon, as they are new to Forum Mafia. And Dsell has not checked in yet, as far as I know (though he isn't new).

Oh, hey Frisk! You're wrong:

The best example of this I can think would be Mafia II.  Going into day 3 - there are 3 town and 2 mafia.  If any member of the town misvotes - then the game is over, because the  two mafia can quick hammer him.  Sure enough, when

Thus - I was 90% sure that RobZ was Mafia when he opened the voting on Day 3.  A vanila townie wouldn't have enough information to put the game out there on a 50/50 shot at being right - when no hammer occurred over the remaining time, I was 100% sure.

I didn't do that. Insomniac did that. He voted for me right off the bat on Day 3.

[Insomniac]

Back on topic though, I think theory discussion is perfectly acceptable.  If people agree - then it gives you a common set of guidelines to measure peoples deviations from.

For example - If the consensus is that you should roleclaim @ LynchVotes - 1, and someone doesn't role claim, then they are either crazy like a fox (TINAS), or they are not a power role.

For example: If you explicitly know something to be bad play, and someone does it anyway - then that's information as well.  Either the person isn't thinking, is crazy, or is mafia.

The best example of this I can think would be Mafia II.  Going into day 3 - there are 3 town and 2 mafia.  If any member of the town misvotes - then the game is over, because the  two mafia can quick hammer him.  Sure enough, when

Thus - I was 90% sure that RobZ was Mafia when he opened the voting on Day 3.  A vanila townie wouldn't have enough information to put the game out there on a 50/50 shot at being right - when no hammer occurred over the remaining time, I was 100% sure.

Actually I opened the voting on day 3, but withdrew when Robz roleclaimed.

[O]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

Damnit O - this is a bad idea too.  There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving.  You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know.  You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.

Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?

To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).

And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that 

[Galzria]

Forums are acting wonky for me at the moment. Apologies if this already posted:

 To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me. I'd be interested in hearing others thoughts on this.

[Insomniac]

Forums are acting wonky for me at the moment. Apologies if this already posted:

 To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me. I'd be interested in hearing others thoughts on this.

I currently don't suspect Axxle because he's drawn a lot of attention to himself. Which he didn't do in M1 when he was scum

[popsofctown]

"Come out of the woodwork" means to come out of relative obscurity.  The origin of the English idiom probably originated when people could buy perfectly good furniture or houses, but once they own it termite came out of the woodwork.
"Lurker" is someone who reads a forum frequently reads a forum but almost never posts.

I combined the terms.

[Captain_Frisk]

Youtube doesn't update viewcount in real-time but on some regular interval. So if anyone checks near 5PM, it 'should' be ok. Encypting, however, works always.

is it just me or forum is now extra-slow? I'm posting this from lynx (text-based browser) as a result.

Superslow- I think Mafia IV is just too awesome for this poor server.

Oops - thank goodness for update posts preview.  I must have missed a few pages because I wasn't following closely.  This is what I was about to write:

@Robz
Really?  As far as I can tell - you opened the voting:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44303#msg44303
May 30, 2012, 03:15:33 pm

Then there was the votecount
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44315#msg44315

Then insomniac voted: May 31, 2012, 12:27:06 pm
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44600#msg44600

-- end of WRONG post

Sorry for the confusion!

[Axxle]

To further my case on Axxle, he's argued with me for simply asking questions, he's gone after J for posting light, ignorable humor (ignorable if it bothers you), and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

He's starting arguments that go nowhere and bring no conclusions about being scum. I liked his question to TABLES, but everything else has had a distinctly unhelpful flavor to me.

What? I never attacked you for asking questions.  I'm telling everyone to stop getting into arguments about theory.  You're the one who took it personally.  Did you just ignore this post?:

Also, Axxle, I disagree that we're talking "too much theory". I am explicitly trying to figure out what peoples voting patterns are going to be, and how they feel about letting the Mafia have more/less time to play around in the RVS. This can be very important to know if we approach an early vote before the deadline. Why are you so quick to write it off?

Asking people what their opinions of Lynch/No Lynch is fine.  Arguing your opinion is useless and distracting.

J's joke was anti-town because of how noisy it was.  And a lot of people seem to agree with that seeing as he has multiple votes on him.

I'll give you O.  But I really don't remember him being that random in Mafia I.  Maybe I just overlooked it because TINAS stole that show but I didn't see it.  Maybe I have to reread.

[Insomniac]

Youtube doesn't update viewcount in real-time but on some regular interval. So if anyone checks near 5PM, it 'should' be ok. Encypting, however, works always.

is it just me or forum is now extra-slow? I'm posting this from lynx (text-based browser) as a result.

Superslow- I think Mafia IV is just too awesome for this poor server.

Oops - thank goodness for update posts preview.  I must have missed a few pages because I wasn't following closely.  This is what I was about to write:

@Robz
Really?  As far as I can tell - you opened the voting:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44303#msg44303
May 30, 2012, 03:15:33 pm

Then there was the votecount
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44315#msg44315

Then insomniac voted: May 31, 2012, 12:27:06 pm
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2549.msg44600#msg44600

-- end of WRONG post

Sorry for the confusion!

I opened for him on page 22, literally the first post on day 3

[O]

and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...

[Captain_Frisk]

and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...

O (and other players in M3) - Can we not talk about this game?  It's night time and we're all asleep.

[Axxle]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

[O]

and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...

O (and other players in M3) - Can we not talk about this game?  It's night time and we're all asleep.

Sorry about that.

[Insomniac]

and O for being O. The last of which if anybody had a right to do, it would be me!

You know, I think I've learned my lesson on piledriving Galzria...

O (and other players in M3) - Can we not talk about this game?  It's night time and we're all asleep.

Sorry about that.

In addition to players not being allowed to talk about M3, I CAN'T even respond to anyone who says ANYTHING about m3 in a post because of my moderating M3.

[O]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

[Axxle]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

I feel like it was my fault not killing TINAS.  Not anyone else's.

[Dsell]

Wowowow this is going to end up being as long as Mafia III, isn't it? 

First of all a big thanks to Voltgloss for changing the timeframes just to accommodate me! I totally wasn't expecting that and appreciate it.

I've been reading through for a while (the forum was super slow for me for a while too) and my thoughts so far:

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.

I don't like this. I don't think it's necessarily "scummy" but I think it's silly statements like this that can really get people in trouble. There are new people playing, we don't all know each others' playstyle, it's just risky. And like...why would you even say that? I don't agree that all humor is anti-town (I mean ultimately we're here to have fun, right?) but that kind of self-deprecating humor is just not smart play

In terms of the lynch vs no lynch on day 1 argument, I already stated what I think in Mafia III:

Positive:
Real information
Extra inferred information (who voted, when, etc)
Chance of lynching mafia

Negative:
Chance of lynching town (possibly higher chance than lynching mafia)
I'm not sure??

Can anyone add to that list?

By no means a complete list, still asking for any good additions.

Pre-post edit: 7 new replies. Oh dear.

[Galzria]

UNVOTE

Axxle, I'm still suspicious of how jumpy you are, but I was just fishing for responses from the other active members. I'm happy with what I got.

Suspicions: Axxle, slightly. None others atm.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.

[Dsell]

Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.

[popsofctown]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.

No, that's the sick part, he can.  Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)
I hate cops.

[Robz888]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.

No, that's the sick part, he can.  Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)
I hate cops.

I don't like the Cop role when I play IRL. But here, it's so much harder to read people that an investigative role is almost essential.

[Dsell]

Going back and looking at Axxle, I'm not sure that I see him being as suspicious as some people claim? It's hard to tell, the only other game I've seen him in...he was mafia. He does seem a little gruff and abrasive, but perhaps he just tends to be suspicious of people. I DO think it's silly to jump on people for trying to talk theory. Some theory seems reasonable...what ELSE do we have to talk about?

[O]

Wowowow this is going to end up being as long as Mafia III, isn't it? 

First of all a big thanks to Voltgloss for changing the timeframes just to accommodate me! I totally wasn't expecting that and appreciate it.

I've been reading through for a while (the forum was super slow for me for a while too) and my thoughts so far:

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

But seriously, Galz, I am at work and I shouldn't even BE posting right now. But rest assured that when I get home this evening I will put on my scumhunting hat and get to work.

I don't like this. I don't think it's necessarily "scummy" but I think it's silly statements like this that can really get people in trouble. There are new people playing, we don't all know each others' playstyle, it's just risky. And like...why would you even say that? I don't agree that all humor is anti-town (I mean ultimately we're here to have fun, right?) but that kind of self-deprecating humor is just not smart play

In terms of the lynch vs no lynch on day 1 argument, I already stated what I think in Mafia III:

Positive:
Real information
Extra inferred information (who voted, when, etc)
Chance of lynching mafia

Negative:
Chance of lynching town (possibly higher chance than lynching mafia)
I'm not sure??

Can anyone add to that list?

By no means a complete list, still asking for any good additions.

Pre-post edit: 7 new replies. Oh dear.

Why are you attacking J for those "scummy" posts but not me?

[popsofctown]

Unvote

Well you were right.  Looking at Mafia I, O is just unhelpful Day 1 town, and miraculously changes Day 2 into good town.

If by "unhelpful" you mean "getting a VT lynched instead of Town Cop, which was unhelpful to me since I was mafia", then yes, very unhelpful.

I have to say - its pretty impressive to be claiming success @ lynching town - just because the alternative was worse.

No, that's the sick part, he can.  Cop is such an overpowered role, it was worth him damaging day game just to save it (presuming he did)
I hate cops.

I don't like the Cop role when I play IRL. But here, it's so much harder to read people that an investigative role is almost essential.

I'm going to take deep calm breaths and not respond because this game needs to stay on track.

[Dsell]

Why are you attacking J for those "scummy" posts but not me?

Ha! You're right, I was going to mention your Jester claim, but I figured it was obvious that it was a joke and not worth drawing attention to. Jester is confirmed not to be in the game whereas mafia is in every game. And I specifically said that it wasn't "scummy" (necessarily).

[Dsell]

Why are you attacking J for those "scummy" posts but not me?

Ha! You're right, I was going to mention your Jester claim, but I figured it was obvious that it was a joke and not worth drawing attention to. Jester is confirmed not to be in the game whereas mafia is in every game. And I specifically said that it wasn't "scummy" (necessarily).

*Specifically said that jotheonah's joke mafia claim wasn't scummy. I think that was clear enough.

[Insomniac]

I saw switched from starcraft reading this board but they haven't posted anything yet so

Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft

Why you lurkin?

[Captain_Frisk]

I saw switched from starcraft reading this board but they haven't posted anything yet so

Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft

Why you lurkin?

You're thinking that he's mafia and too afraid to post?

[Insomniac]

I saw switched from starcraft reading this board but they haven't posted anything yet so

Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft

Why you lurkin?

You're thinking that he's mafia and too afraid to post?

Possible, doubtful though but I'd like to provoke a response

[popsofctown]

unvote, vote Insomniac

[Dsell]

unvote, vote Insomniac

Wait, why? No explanation at all?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to take deep calm breaths and not respond because this game needs to stay on track.

Any information is good information - A theory discussion of the relative power of roles is interesting to me.

I was actually reading up on this last night... a discussion of the C9 setup that you used (random selection of 2 roles from (Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper, Vanilla)) - which I guess was adopted because the standard variant (Cop + Doctor) had a dominant strategy (Cop claims - hidden Doctor protects)

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2216

With this setup - it looks like the town is at a disadvantage - although that is a small sample size.

Also - for those interested - and I can't find the stats now, but someone claimed that in a study of newb games, the town successfully lynched scum just under 20% of the time... close to (but just under) the expected results of 22% if voting randomly.

[Captain_Frisk]

unvote, vote Insomniac

Wait, why? No explanation at all?

He's pops... you know... from ctown?  He doesn't need any explanation.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oops - posted too fast.  Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.

[Insomniac]

unvote, vote Insomniac

My guess is because I voted for SFS who I said it's possible is mafia but doubtful. Either that or we have a mafia pair already!

[Dsell]

Oops - posted too fast.  Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.

+1 because you're not allowed to edit this.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oops - posted too fast.  Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.

+1 because you're not allowed to edit this.

I want to so bad!

[Dsell]

What?? Why did that happen? Umm anyway moving on now...

[Galzria]

Oops - posted too fast.  Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.

Haha, boy C.F. You botched that one up pretty well.

For the record Pops, I'm interested to hear why as well.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oops - posted too fast.  Pops, I'm also interested in why you're voting - whether it be random, fun, don't like his name etc.

Haha, boy C.F. You botched that one up pretty well.

For the record Pops, I'm interested to hear why as well.

Ha - you did it too!

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - I've messed up the whole board.

[Dsell]

Oh btw, I think it's ironic that pops hates cops. And seriously, what's up with quotes right now? And pops, please give us reason! I guessed the same as insomniac but would love to hear from the source. You have a lot more experience than most of us so I want to know what is going on in your head with your voting.

[Galzria]

*Ahem* Wow, good job C.F. That was worth some chuckles. +1. Still not sure how you managed that. No more quoting you!

[popsofctown]

You'll get nothing and like it.

[Insomniac]

*Ahem* Wow, good job C.F. That was worth some chuckles. +1. Still not sure how you managed that. No more quoting you!

His /quote tag was broken so it never left the quote, thusly whenever you quote is quote there is an unfinished quote tag

[Galzria]

You'll get nothing and like it.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN for the above reason.

[Captain_Frisk]

You'll get nothing and like it.

/With appropriate quotation this time.

This strikes me as intentionally antagonistic.  Did you learn something from TINAS and O in M1?  I'm curious to see the town reaction to this...

[O]

I just returned and wat is this.


Pops, I recommend not playing Mafiascum style on F.DS. What may work among a bunch of experts with a bunch of conventions and established behavior may not work here.

[O]

You'll get nothing and like it.

/With appropriate quotation this time.

This strikes me as intentionally antagonistic.  Did you learn something from TINAS and O in M1?  I'm curious to see the town reaction to this...

You'll get nothing and like it.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN for the above reason.

I loled.

[popsofctown]

Oh let me have some fun.  It's my favorite retort.

Insomniac is not suspicious because he expressed suspicion, it's the lack thereof.  He mentioned the unlikelihood that his target was scum.  That unlikelihood is already implied, and he wasn't prompted by anything like "to what extent do you feel SFS is likely scum", someone just asked to follow his thought process.  He over reacted and tried to shirk responsibility for his vote.

I'm not always good at explaining what I mean, but that is what I find somewhat scummy.  But not as scummy as scums that are scummier, but less scummy than townies that are not scummy by comparison. /hinterlands

[O]

I'm not always good at explaining what I mean, but that is what I find somewhat scummy.  But not as scummy as scums that are scummier, but less scummy than townies that are not scummy by comparison. /hinterlands

BRB, going to get some fresh air after reading that.

[popsofctown]

Voting without reasoning is not mafiascum style mafia.  It's troll style mafia, and after I amused myself with reactions (and gained information from guesses at my motivation) I was going to explain whether asked or not.

[O]

Voting without reasoning is not mafiascum style mafia.  It's troll style mafia, and after I amused myself with reactions (and gained information from guesses at my motivation) I was going to explain whether asked or not.

IMO troll style mafia is 100000X better in IRL games.

...That being said, you're on my turf.

[Dsell]

You'll get nothing and like it.

I feel like the game is running away from me...what does this mean? I KNOW you must have something in mind. I'll get nothing from what? Why would I like that? I guess I echo C_F but I feel like this is not so much meant to be antagonistic as cryptic? Maybe?

I don't suppose asking for you to explain again nicely is going to get a straighter answer?

Pre-post edit: I guess you explained so this is now irrelevant. Still gonna post it. Is your vote serious or are you just trying to counter his prodding with more prodding? I would like to hear from SFS too but I'm not gonna vote now.

[Galzria]

And I can pretty much unvote since it was done just for lol's, and really without good reason.

[Dsell]

Insomniac is not suspicious because he expressed suspicion, it's the lack thereof.  He mentioned the unlikelihood that his target was scum.

But the same can be said of your vote for him. But I guess I've been trolled anyway, so... /beingtrolled

[Captain_Frisk]

You'll get nothing and like it.

I feel like the game is running away from me...what does this mean? I KNOW you must have something in mind. I'll get nothing from what? Why would I like that? I guess I echo C_F but I feel like this is not so much meant to be antagonistic as cryptic? Maybe?

I have a suspicion that with 8 votes required, 21 real life days to go, and most of the active posters here being on their 2nd, 3rd or 4th games, that there's just alot of goofing off before its late enough that we can stop working without looking like slackers.

Pops' "get nothing and like it" actually made me lol.  I'm not reading too much into anything that happens here yet.  Reading into day 1 shenanigans almost got TINAS lynched, did get theory lynched, and had the entire spectating universe think that O was also Mafia.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Insomniac - Your timing is impeccable. Not lurking, just getting caught up.  Played golf this morning and this is the first time I've been able to read since confirming my role last night.  6 new pages, wow. Someone expressed concern that this would be longer than MIII, I suspect it will be very long indeed with 15 of us.

Voltgloss - Thanks for moderating this, with all you have going on.

Axxle - Thanks for the link to the two articles.  I found the second article to be particularly important.

Couple of housekeeping things before I begin the substantive part of my post:
1) I am a newbie, having never played this game at all in any format.
2) I have created a temporary signature to define my abbreviations for people's names. If your name is not abbreviated in my signature, I will do my best to use it in its entirety.  I did this because someone in an earlier post used the salutation "@G", and there are 4 names in this game that start with "G".
3) I'm not going to read MI or MII (with the exception of checking the two starting posts, to verify the absence of the players in my first question below), and I will likely abandon my reading of MIII, which is currently in Night 1.
4) My gender is male, if it helps anyone avoid awkward choices of pronoun.
5) I am on EDT in the US, if that is useful info for anyone in evaluating posting patterns. (God, I'm such a data whore).

Now, on to substance:

@Theo, Gloob, Green:  You were not in MI or MII or MIII.  Have you played Forum Mafia before?  Have you played IRL?

After reading the second article that Axxle suggested, I am of the opinion that random voting on Day 1 is anti-town.  Day 1 is indeed a time for to be as non random as possible.  So, I'll be bold:

VOTE: O, because he will be voting randomly.

Pre-post addendum:  OMG, while I'm wrestling with this, another full page?  I started this literally one minute after #211.

[Galzria]

Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate  posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!

[Captain_Frisk]

Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate  posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!

+1 for the lol.

UNVOTE

Vote: Galzria - as we've clearly identified that humor is anti-town.

[jotheonah]

O, remember when you said we broke Galzria? I think we definitely did.

[Dsell]

Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate  posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!

+1 for the lol.

UNVOTE

Vote: Galzria - as we've clearly identified that humor is anti-town.

Vote: Captain_Frisk - because apparently, the thing to do is to vote for the preceding poster.

Pre-post edit: Unvote
Vote: jotheonah

[O]

O, remember when you said we broke Galzria? I think we definitely did.

Mafia isn't for the weak of heart.

Vote: Dsell per his above reasoning.

[Green Opal]

Sweet, the forum's back to normal now.
Surely the Insomniac's SFS vote is of the same type that is there to draw people out of the woodwork (hey, that works as a turn of phrase) and was even discussed to that purpose? And I don't think simply not posting can be taken as that much of a sign of being town, simply on the odds being fairly low of the number of people who haven't said anything yet all being innocent.
Edit for catchup posts: well, it looks like that situation has resolved itself anyway. So in the name of trying to get something to happen, Vote: Glooble.

@SFS: I have played forum mafia, but not for a long time, and I played with a group of real life friends (on a shared interest forum) so everything was rather more silly and injokey. So this is the first time I've really been trying to deeply analyse what people are saying and meaning. That said I have read the first two games on here.

Second pre-edit: http://imgur.com/BDbiD

[Insomniac]

Unvote

Got a response that is all I wanted for now.

[Galzria]

Welcome to Trolls! Your role is legitimate poster! Unfortunately for you, the trolls like to eat legitimate posters for breakfast, so in order to stay alive, you're going to have to troll the trolls into thinking you're a troll. But watchout, because there might be other legitimate  posters out there trying to troll you! You win if you can troll enough trolls into eating trolls, such that all trolls are dead and vanquished!

+1 for the lol.

UNVOTE

Vote: Galzria - as we've clearly identified that humor is anti-town.

Damn, they're on to me! I'll add an incriminating smiley here too. That's two blows against me. Jokes, AND emoticons!

[O]

So this is the first time I've really been trying to deeply analyse what people are saying and meaning.

you're in for a rough time bro. 

Unvote

Vote: Galzria for making me edit my post pre-post

[O]

you know.. I really really wish we had a Mafia IV discussion thread, I get the feeling it would have been pretty damn interesting to read D1 comments.

[Dsell]

And I don't think simply not posting can be taken as that much of a sign of being town, simply on the odds being fairly low of the number of people who haven't said anything yet all being innocent.

I don't think anyone is trying to say that non-posters are automatically town. Also, I don't think I get your maths...but it doesn't matter because according to the roster of what people are doing, he's online and reading this topic, so probably just catching up. Don't worry, if someone is chronically not posting, the situation will get fixed up.

[popsofctown]

There's no Mafia IV QT?  I'm fine with it, the only objector I can recall is TINAS and he's not playing.

[Glooble]

Ok, so a few things about me.

I work in a restaurant. While I am at work (usually 7 in the morning to 3 in the afternoon) I have absolutely no computer access. I am on my feet, waiting tables.

Today I had to wait a very long time for a bus and didn't end up getting home until 5.

I was not expecting to come home on day one to 11 pages of forum! I am up to page eight and decided to post just let you all know I exist, but damn this is a lot to digest. I will sa something substansive as soon as I have read through and caught up.

[popsofctown]

Unvote

Got a response that is all I wanted for now.

You do realize your vote had no impact whatsoever on whether he posted or is promptness in doing so?
Do something useful.

[Axxle]

Wow, I am so confused now.  I don't know what votes are real and what are jokes.  And this is why I say that joking just introduces a lot of unnecessary noise that's damaging to town.

[Galzria]

I'm going to put my vote back on Axxle, actually. He WAS a bit jumpy earlier, and then went all mysterious and silent when things turned lighthearted.

Vote: Axxle

Anybody care to join me?

[O]

Joking allows for a less mafia-influenced vote actually, I think.

Also it makes mafia 1000x more fun.

VOTE: AXXLE for hating puppies and young children

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - to somewhat get us back on track, we're 1/2 day in - and here's the post count thus far.  Note that this is going to be warped significantly based on our time zones etc.  For example - I'm about to go mow the lawn and deal with eveningtime family stuff - so I proably won't post much for the next 12 hours.  People on the west coast who post from home might not have posted at all yet.

These posts counts include pregame thread... so the people with counts of 1 - have not posted in game at all - but presumably they did confirm to Volt overnight.

Name       Post Count 6/4
Galzria   35
Captain_Frisk   25
Axxle   22
Insomniac   21
 popsofctown   21
O   20
Grujah   18
Dsell   17
Robz888   16
jotheonah   8
Green Opal   6
Tables   5
SwitchedFromStarcraft   5
theorel   1
Glooble   1

I'd really like to hear from theorel and Glooble - even if you're just saying hi and telling us a little about yourself.  I was a little intimidated about posting in my first game, and clearly I've loosened up a bit.

My learnings thus far are - it's not scary - being involved is a whole lot of fun, and it appears that there has been no hard feelings at the end of the game, regardless of whatever yelling occurs in game.

[Axxle]

I'm going to put my vote back on Axxle, actually. He WAS a bit jumpy earlier, and then went all mysterious and silent when things turned lighthearted.

Vote: Axxle

Anybody care to join me?

I do have work.

[Captain_Frisk]

Note that 10 extra posts came in pre-post.  I did not fix it.

[Dsell]

Yeah yeah...this is hilarious and I'm really enjoying it but I guess I will Unvote so as not to confuse and so maybe we can get back to serious? But we don't have to yet...really, this is great.

[Galzria]

Aww, damn. He returned. Well, I'm still good right now. This bandwagon is open for service.

[popsofctown]

All my votes are serious (this particular game)

[Insomniac]

Unvote

Got a response that is all I wanted for now.

You do realize your vote had no impact whatsoever on whether he posted or is promptness in doing so?
Do something useful.

Ok, VOTE: popsofctown
For being ridiculous in his voting for me. Read Mafia I and II its common to vote for lurkers, which I did, I saw him read the thread, then go elsewhere before posting, so I voted for him.

[O]

I'm not changing my vote until Axxle explains his stance on Puppies and young children.


Please note: Any pedobear references AT ALL and I will personally destroy you, you WILL get lynched day one.

[Voltgloss]

There's no Mafia IV QT?  I'm fine with it, the only objector I can recall is TINAS and he's not playing.

If ALL players specifically state that they are comfortable with a Mafia IV Discussion Quicktopic existing, I will create one and PM the link to any non-players (and deceased non-Mafia players) who are interested to join.  When I next provide a Vote Count I will include a count of players who have stated they are comfortable with a discussion quicktopic existing.

Also, all players confirmed receipt of their role PMs.

[O]

I am comfortable with a quicktopic existing

[Dsell]

All my votes are serious (this particular game)

Ok this is reasonable but then what does your vote for insomniac mean? You kinda joked about it but are you really really that suspicious of him for voting for a lurker?

[Galzria]

I've greatly enjoyed the discussion topics being there. I'm all for it.

[Dsell]

Fine with the quicktopic.

[popsofctown]

I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker.  Read my posts.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I note that O did not respond to my vote, but did, in the next few posts vote for two different folks in quick succession.

Disregard for a newbie's opinion? Perhaps.
Deflection of attention? HMMM, interesting thought.

[O]

I note that O did not respond to my vote, but did, in the next few posts vote for two different folks in quick succession.

Disregard for a newbie's opinion? Perhaps.
Deflection of attention? HMMM, interesting thought.

More that one vote doesn't concern me, and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot.

Deflection of attention? I bask in attention in Mafia games, thank you very much. 

[Captain_Frisk]

I am comfortable with a quicktopic existing

As am I.  I am not comfortable with a f.ds discussion topic - unless it just contains a link to the quicktopic - is spoilered - and locked.  EVERY TIME i the M3 Discussion board jump up - it irks me that I can't read it.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - Can you tell us newbies what the purpose and potential use of the discussion thread is, and why would someone potentially object?

[O]

Also SFS, I am highly offended that you are not using an abbreviation for my name. I demand you create one.

[Dsell]

I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker.  Read my posts.

Ok, ok I read them and maybe I was oversimplifying, but doesn't that make Green Opal just as suspicious? I mean insomniac obviously has different reasons for using his vote than you do, but we just had like a whole page of trollvotes. I just do NOT find a vote to get a lurker to talk suspicious. I'm not gonna do it myself but I find it odd that you are really serious about your vote.

[Insomniac]

I'm ok with a quick topic

O: You yourself made a pedobear reference in the comment you said you would destroy anyone who referenced it. And I guess now I have too, better destroy one of us!

[jotheonah]

I am down with the QT, yo.

[O]

People I'd like to vote for but can't because I have one vote and Axxle hasn't responded yet:

Insomniac
Theorel (the only Dark Horse left)

[Galzria]

People I'd like to vote for but can't because I have one vote and Axxle hasn't responded yet:

Insomniac
Theorel (the only Dark Horse left)

Glooble?

[jotheonah]

People I'd like to vote for but can't because I have one vote and Axxle hasn't responded yet:

Insomniac
Theorel (the only Dark Horse left)

Seriously, though, give people a chance to (A) get home from work and (B) read the 11 and a half million pages we've already generated.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

[Glooble]

Ok, I have caught up (though by the time I finish typing this there will be 8 million new posts.) In no particular order:

I am fine with the quicktopic.
I have never played forum Mafia, only IRL at parties and things. I have been following MII and MIII pretty religiously though, and had a blast as an observer, trying to predict who might turn up scum.

What else do people want to know? My RL occupation is currently waiting tables because I have no idea what I want to do with my life. My undergrad major was playwriting. I write a lot of plays, short stories and poetry and am engaged in submitting all of these things to contests and journals.

Jo and I are acquainted in real life, but we live in different cities.

So far no one is sticking out to me as particularly suspicious. I'm almost certain Jo's scum claim was facetious, and hell, I might have done the same thing given the setup. O's playstyle seems similar enough to his MIII play that it gives me no useful information. Pops does seem to be being unhelpful and belligerent, but that doesn't really read as scum to me, since I feel like scum would want people to like them.

Green Opal: I assume you have no real suspicion that I am scum, since at the time of your post you had literally nothing to base suspicion on. If you just voted to drag me out of the woodwork, then congratulations - you've succeeded.

I'll be on for an hour or so yet, so you'll probably hear more from me soon.

[Dsell]

Ok, so a few things about me.

I work in a restaurant. While I am at work (usually 7 in the morning to 3 in the afternoon) I have absolutely no computer access. I am on my feet, waiting tables.

Today I had to wait a very long time for a bus and didn't end up getting home until 5.

I was not expecting to come home on day one to 11 pages of forum! I am up to page eight and decided to post just let you all know I exist, but damn this is a lot to digest. I will sa something substansive as soon as I have read through and caught up.

[jotheonah]

Glooble posted, but I think it got lost in the flood.

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win. 

He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy.  He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.

[Dsell]

Oh wow, my quote of Glooble was in response to Galzria thinking he was still a lurker. Don't know why it didn't tell me new posts had come up. Disregard that.

[Galzria]

Oh wow, my quote of Glooble was in response to Galzria thinking he was still a lurker. Don't know why it didn't tell me new posts had come up. Disregard that.

Thanks Dsell,, I had missed it.

[Green Opal]

Unvote. Also, fine with a quicktopic.
I fully understand, Glooble. I'm slightly dreading going to sleep in an hour or so and seeing how much thread there'll be by that point, especially given it was very inconveniently not be a bank holiday then... And yes, my vote was purely for the purpose of gathering information, you've not (yet) said anything to rouse any suspicion from me.

[O]

@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win. 

He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy.  He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.

Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.

"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.

[Dsell]

I'm slightly dreading going to sleep in an hour or so and seeing how much thread there'll be by that point, especially given it was very inconveniently not be a bank holiday then...

Short answer? Don't sleep.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - Can you tell us newbies what the purpose and potential use of the discussion thread is, and why would someone potentially object?

The discussion thread would be for people not playing the game, but reading the thread, to discuss their thoughts/suspicions/wild theories about the goings-on.  Current players would NOT be given access to the quicktopic.  Players who die during the course of the game may ask to join the quicktopic, unless they were Mafia (in which case they would be excluded for having additional information - i.e., knowledge of the other members of their Mafia team).

As to why someone would object - when the idea of discussion topics was first floated, some people had (and still have) objections.  See http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2576.0 for a fulsome discussion of the pros and cons.  I personally do not care either way, which is why I have asked the players themselves to weigh in on whether they are comfortable with a discussion quicktopic existing.

[Axxle]

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

[jotheonah]

@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win. 

He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy.  He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.

Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.

"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.

One big issue on Day 1 is that there's 15 of us. We just can't all be crazy active. It leads to ... well, to this madness.

[O]

@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win. 

He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy.  He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.

Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.

"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.

One big issue on Day 1 is that there's 15 of us. We just can't all be crazy active. It leads to ... well, to this madness.

I'm not saying we all need to be like me. That'd be terrifying. I'm saying we need SOME people to be like me.

If we're all like me there's still an easy mafia cover.

[jotheonah]

Then again, if only you are like you there's still an easy mafia cover ... for you.

[Axxle]

Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?

[Glooble]

"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.

It seems to me that any way you can play town that convinces that town that you are town would also be a way to play Mafia and convince the town that you are town. in other words, if there really was a surefire way not to arouse suspicion, I would be suspicious of anyone employing it, so its sort of a big Catch-22.

Given that, I can see the appeal of O's strategy.

On the other hand, "be random and wacky" also seems like a great way to "hide in plain site" as the Mafia; ie "he can't be scum, no one plays scum that badly."

So I"m going to be wary of O this game, but right now I'm not any more suspicious of him than anyone else. I'm going to read the post so far and see if anyone jumps out as suspicious the second time around.

[Axxle]

Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?

or I should say the only two options.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people, realizing perhaps that tensions were running far too high for useful discussion, retired to the Cellar to partake of the now-deceased Lord's wine collection.  He wouldn't be needing it.

Fifteen minutes later there had been another frenzy of brainstormed lynch suggestions, along with two drained casks, one heavily damaged cask which contents were found disagreeable, and a rapidly consumed wheel of pungent cheese.  One could almost say the participants had Remodeled the Cellar into a Feast. 

Vote Count 1-2

Galzria (1) - Captain_Frisk
Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
O (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
Axxle (2) - Galzria, O
popsofctown (1) - Insomniac

Not Voting (9) - Robz888, theorel, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, Axxle, Dsell, Green Opal

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Players comfortable with a discussion quicktopic (9) - Dsell, O, Galzria, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, jotheonah, Glooble, Green Opal, Axxle

[jotheonah]

Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?

No one said it was. I'm just saying, we need town all along that spectrum. Except maybe at the ends.

[jotheonah]

[homersimpson] Hmmm... pungent cheese [/homersimpson]

[O]

Then again, if only you are like you there's still an easy mafia cover ... for you.

It's an interesting point, and one I worry about. Is it ok to play Mafia in such a way that benefits me across all games I play, instead of just one?

I'd like to point out though that it would be a very dangerous way to play as mafia: I frequently get myself pretty close to being lynched.

[Axxle]

Since when is "Be completely random" and "Lurk" a dichotomy?

No one said it was. I'm just saying, we need town all along that spectrum. Except maybe at the ends.

Sorry, I should have quoted, it sure sounds like O was saying that:

@SFS - I am starting to think that O employees a Day 1 strategy equivalent to "Always Play Random" In Rock-Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

It's unbeatable, but it also doesn't win. 

He doesn't provide enough explicit dirt to get lynched, but he also doesn't provide any information to make anything he says especially trustworthy.  He will live through the day - Mafia won't nightkill him because he's been crazy enough to attract some suspicion - and then he can start playing for real the next day.

Honestly, nobody's ever confronted me with a strategy and convinced me its actually better.

"Be silent and out of the way as VT" seems like crap to me since it just provides a great hole for the mafia to hide under aswell.

[popsofctown]

I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker.  Read my posts.

Ok, ok I read them and maybe I was oversimplifying, but doesn't that make Green Opal just as suspicious? I mean insomniac obviously has different reasons for using his vote than you do, but we just had like a whole page of trollvotes. I just do NOT find a vote to get a lurker to talk suspicious. I'm not gonna do it myself but I find it odd that you are really serious about your vote.

Nope.

[Glooble]

I'd like to point out though that it would be a very dangerous way to play as mafia: I frequently get myself pretty close to being lynched.

Ah, but don't forget Rule of Acquisition #62 - the riskier the road, the greater the profits.

@jototheonah
15 people is a lot. It's going to get very difficult for me to keep everything straight in my head.

[Glooble]

That being said, the longer I spent reading MII and MIII the more I got a sense for people's voices. I hope that will happen here too. And of course, the number of people will inevitably decrease.

[Dsell]

It seems to me that any way you can play town that convinces that town that you are town would also be a way to play Mafia and convince the town that you are town.

This sentence hurt my brain. >.< But, it does make some sense. I think there is a limit to how much you can get out of playstyle. People play differently game to game, people play the same, people (townies and mafia) follow the tides of the game. So you can get some from playstyle, but it's not foolproof.

So for me right now I'm not overly suspicious of anyone but I am a bit...confused by pops' vote and his insistence on keeping it. Still hoping for a response to my post at 270.

Pre-post edit: got the response, no substance. Still hoping for something more.

[Galzria]

I'd like to point out though that it would be a very dangerous way to play as mafia: I frequently get myself pretty close to being lynched.

Ah, but don't forget Rule of Acquisition #62 - the riskier the road, the greater the profits.

@jototheonah
15 people is a lot. It's going to get very difficult for me to keep everything straight in my head.

Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.

[popsofctown]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

[O]

I am not suspicious of him for voting a lurker.  Read my posts.

Ok, ok I read them and maybe I was oversimplifying, but doesn't that make Green Opal just as suspicious? I mean insomniac obviously has different reasons for using his vote than you do, but we just had like a whole page of trollvotes. I just do NOT find a vote to get a lurker to talk suspicious. I'm not gonna do it myself but I find it odd that you are really serious about your vote.

Nope.

Ok.

[Dsell]

Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.

...but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...

No but really, that's actually a good idea. I don't have time to do that, though. So far I've been able to keep up.

[Dsell]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

Who are you talking to? If you are talking to me, I just reread my post and did not ask a question.

[popsofctown]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

Who are you talking to? If you are talking to me, I just reread my post and did not ask a question.

the original question

[Glooble]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

pops, it would be helpful to me if you could tell us who you are replying to with this kind of statement. There is a lot going on and it might make things a bit less confusing.

@Dsell: This game makes my brain hurt.

[Galzria]

Let's make it our goal to be the first F.DS mafia town to lynch scum Day 1! I believe in us. We can do it.

Well, if you want to find scum so much today (admirable goal, who doesn't? (aside from scum)), what are your proposed methods? What are you going to look for? I think you would agree nobody is going to jump up and down screaming "Me! Pick me! I'm scum!". So, what should we look fir?

J, I never felt you satisfactorily revisited and answered this. Would you mind doing so? Especially in light of the discussion that anything Town can do to appear Town, so Mafia can do to appear Town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

This is really interesting.  I have a mental view of you and your style based on your moderation of M1 - but you're completely different over here. 

I am inherently suspicious of anyone who seems confident that they know what they are doing - like there is some kindof master plan.  Maybe its just lack of experience, but it seems like there's really no way to truly have that level of confidence.  I'm keeping an eye on you.


Pre Post Edit - 6 MORE?
Oh - and Unvote  I'm not really any more suspicious of Galzria than anyone else at this point.

[Galzria]

Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.

...but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...

No but really, that's actually a good idea. I don't have time to do that, though. So far I've been able to keep up.

I don't do it either, but it seemed smart if you don't have three energy to pour over a rapidly moving thread multiple times.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

[O]

unvote

I managed to miss Axxle's response until SFS brought it up.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

Reposted to bold the unvote and the re-vote

[Axxle]

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

O requested this, and I felt the need to grant him it for whatever reason.
You should bold your votes so it's easy for Voltgloss to see them.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Damn, this may get old:

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for explanation, see my post #322.

[Galzria]

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

I actually feel we've made a lot of progress for early day 1. Tons of good information there, even in the trollvotes.

[Dsell]

That unlikelihood is already implied, and he wasn't prompted by anything like "to what extent do you feel SFS is likely scum", someone just asked to follow his thought process.  He over reacted and tried to shirk responsibility for his vote.

Ok so I went back and read exactly what you said in case I misunderstood it. You obviously see a big difference between asking someone "You are voting for SFS because you think he's mafia?" and "How scummy do you think SFS is?" Is that basically what you're saying? I guess they are different. Hmm. How do you think he should have reacted? I don't quite follow your logic, though I admit that there does appear to be some there.

[Glooble]

Hello everyone.

I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).

I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.

Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.

[Grujah]

THIS REPLY IS AFTER READING UP TO POST 314, SOMETHING WILL POP UP IN MIDTIME.

Ok with Quicktopic

I came to the thread wanting to vote for Tables, after giving it some thoughts (and watching Game of Thrones season finale)
Yes, Axxle was a bit too jumpy (still not completely clear), especially getting jump for Tables bring out out his name saying "I trust this guy". But than, this is what struck me as weird! What the hell is that? "I believe Axxle". Out of blue. No reason. And Axxle's respond seemed like two of the share a dirty little secret. And by that I don't mean Mafia exclusively, Axxle's jumpyness to me, look like, a guy saying to another one: "dude, we don't bring that up, we agreed not to".
But I'm still more interested in Tables' out of blue trust towards Axxle, and especially bringing it up like that. Ok, it did "create response" especially from Axxle, but still, it feels.. like  a weird move. Like, why do that exactly and not vote someone or at least back up why you trust him?

Unvote

Got a response that is all I wanted for now.

But this! This caught me off-guard. How outrageous. It looks completely like someone trying to cover up things. Seriously. Especially after that exchange with Captain Frisk. So other posts too, like "lets now all vote for J"

On others players:
SFS's post seems honest, trustworthy, for some reason.
Galzria seems like he triest so much to comment and put into context everything, but seems good so far.
O and pops - don't like em at all, acting random for.. what?.
Robz seems ok and trustworhy so far.
Captain Frisk - though he seems thoughtful and helpful, a bit too.. I don't know? Scripted.
Axxle at least showed some spine 
Tables I dont like.
Theo - nothing so far.
Dsell - mostly impartial but leaning on good side.
Green Opal - still evaluating, though leaning on good side.
For J i all ready said it was a very stupid move nad he didn't do anything smart after that.

Vote: Insomniac.
I'll hammer/bandwagon on some other votes too (J, O, pops)

[Galzria]

Hello everyone.

I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).

I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.

Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.

I would rather have a Vanilla Town lynched than not lynch at all. Even if it's me. The math simply supports that being the better move. I would also rather lynch a VT than a Role. And above all that, I would rather lynch Mafia.
[/quote]

[popsofctown]

You're still off, but now you're actually trying and getting closer, Dsell.  The post posed to Insomniac was more like "Are you, Insomniac, voting X because his action Y leads you to believe he is scum?" As part of his explanation he emphasized the -unlikelihood- that his target is scum.  That was not necessary to his answer, but served the survivalist purpose of appearing less aggressive

[Glooble]

On others players:
SFS's post seems honest, trustworthy, for some reason.
Galzria seems like he triest so much to comment and put into context everything, but seems good so far.
O and pops - don't like em at all, acting random for.. what?.
Robz seems ok and trustworhy so far.
Captain Frisk - though he seems thoughtful and helpful, a bit too.. I don't know? Scripted.
Axxle at least showed some spine 
Tables I dont like.
Theo - nothing so far.
Dsell - mostly impartial but leaning on good side.
Green Opal - still evaluating, though leaning on good side.
For J i all ready said it was a very stupid move nad he didn't do anything smart after that.

Vote: Insomniac.
I'll hammer/bandwagon on some other votes too (J, O, pops)

No opinion on me yet?

[O]

THIS REPLY IS AFTER READING UP TO POST 314, SOMETHING WILL POP UP IN MIDTIME.

Ok with Quicktopic

I came to the thread wanting to vote for Tables, after giving it some thoughts (and watching Game of Thrones season finale)
Yes, Axxle was a bit too jumpy (still not completely clear), especially getting jump for Tables bring out out his name saying "I trust this guy". But than, this is what struck me as weird! What the hell is that? "I believe Axxle". Out of blue. No reason. And Axxle's respond seemed like two of the share a dirty little secret. And by that I don't mean Mafia exclusively, Axxle's jumpyness to me, look like, a guy saying to another one: "dude, we don't bring that up, we agreed not to".
But I'm still more interested in Tables' out of blue trust towards Axxle, and especially bringing it up like that. Ok, it did "create response" especially from Axxle, but still, it feels.. like  a weird move. Like, why do that exactly and not vote someone or at least back up why you trust him?

Unvote

Got a response that is all I wanted for now.

But this! This caught me off-guard. How outrageous. It looks completely like someone trying to cover up things. Seriously. Especially after that exchange with Captain Frisk. So other posts too, like "lets now all vote for J"

On others players:
SFS's post seems honest, trustworthy, for some reason.
Galzria seems like he triest so much to comment and put into context everything, but seems good so far.
O and pops - don't like em at all, acting random for.. what?.
Robz seems ok and trustworhy so far.
Captain Frisk - though he seems thoughtful and helpful, a bit too.. I don't know? Scripted.
Axxle at least showed some spine 
Tables I dont like.
Theo - nothing so far.
Dsell - mostly impartial but leaning on good side.
Green Opal - still evaluating, though leaning on good side.
For J i all ready said it was a very stupid move nad he didn't do anything smart after that.

Vote: Insomniac.
I'll hammer/bandwagon on some other votes too (J, O, pops)

You're one short- What about glooble?

And why so confident about SFS?

Ninjaed by glooble himself

[Dsell]

You're still off, but now you're actually trying and getting closer, Dsell.  The post posed to Insomniac was more like "Are you, Insomniac, voting X because his action Y leads you to believe he is scum?" As part of his explanation he emphasized the -unlikelihood- that his target is scum.  That was not necessary to his answer, but served the survivalist purpose of appearing less aggressive

Ok thank you. I don't really think I agree with this logic (ok the logic is fine but I still think he was just trying to get a lurker to talk) but I can definitely live with it.

[Grujah]

@Glooble - Still evaluating, though his post #301 seems quite reasonable. I don't know how O usually plays, but I am keeping an eye on him too.

@SFS - This is likely to change, it is nothing in particular, his first post just seemed honest (maybe because it mostly was, as it is information about him  ). Though I only skimmed it the first, reading it closely doesn't seem as a reasonable for O as Gloobe's is, because.. well, Glooble just provided more sounding reasoning than "random is bad". But still nothing concrete to grasp onto yet.

[jotheonah]

@Galzria

I think that concientious town players will be hyperaware of the possibility of mafia-led bandwagons. Anyone accumulating a critical mass of votes in a short time is not a good lynch target.

We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

[jotheonah]

I started out writing this tongue-in-cheek, but now I quite like it.

[Dsell]

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

I really hope this is a joke. XD

[jotheonah]

Note, this potentially incriminates the people who are coming out and saying silliness is antitown as (potentially) mafia trying to wrangle the town into a more manipulatable state. *cough*Axxle*cough*

[jotheonah]

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

I really hope this is a joke. XD

That particular line was somewhat of a humorous overstatement. But I'll go ahead and sand by the general sentiment.

[jotheonah]

*stand

[jotheonah]

Galzria, since you asked me, let me throw the question back at you. How ought we hunt scum in order to accomplish the difficult goal of a Day 1 scumlynch?

[Grujah]

Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully).

This is has some interesting and reasonable points. You are right; a Mafia would need to think more before posting and with us posting this much it would be hard to keep up. They need often posts, but convincing, well-though-out posts, I agree faking erratic play would be harder.

(Though your posts seems well-though-out as well). JK. 

[theorel]

Hi all,
just posting more or less to say that I'm here, and I'll try to read some of the posts.  I was on when the game had just started...then I started to read just before the forum went down (at least for me) sometime this afternoon.  So, IF I read it all, I've got like 7 pages to read...anyways, I'll probably read backwards from now, starting in a couple hours when the kids go to bed.

I will say, that you are a talkative bunch...you should all resolve to read the entire thread each time you post, that will let those of us with less than all of our time keep up

Oh, also I'm guessing not all 7 pages (or however many there will be in the an hour and a half) have substance, so if anyone would like to sum up what's happened, I'm sure I would find it helpful.

Anyways, I'm sure posting will slow down tomorrow (game time) once there is information of actual substance, and the people with crazy amounts of free time actually start rereading the thread to determine what's actually going on...until then I'll probably.

Anyways, I'll post something more substantial tonight (can't guarantee much substance, since a lot depends on how much substance the rest of you lot have given)

PRE-EDIT: Also...it's ridiculous that my clicking post warning says that 6 posts were written in the time I took to write this one.
Pre-Edit2: and another one! goodness!

[Dsell]

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

I really hope this is a joke. XD

That particular line was somewhat of a humorous overstatement. But I'll go ahead and sand by the general sentiment.

Yeah, that's kinda what I figured. O is a strange case. He is really frustrating when we are trying to be serious but I've actually found him hilarious so far here.

[theorel]

until then I'll probably not keep up entirely. (silly lost ends of sentences, I'm sure it was in my brain before I started typing)

[Dsell]

Oh, also I'm guessing not all 7 pages (or however many there will be in the an hour and a half) have substance, so if anyone would like to sum up what's happened, I'm sure I would find it helpful.

In general, I don't think this is a good idea. Maybe a VERY rough summation, but it really is best for you to read it all yourself. And quite a bit has happened. Sorry, I know it is a ton to read. 

[Axxle]

Note, this potentially incriminates the people who are coming out and saying silliness is antitown as (potentially) mafia trying to wrangle the town into a more manipulatable state. *cough*Axxle*cough*

I will counter by saying that Mafia is perfectly fine with no active scumhunting happening.

Do you guys really think that faking erratic play is harder than being consistent Day to Day? Anything you point at later can just be attributed to erratic play.  I know that I was very limited in the lies I could tell in Mafia I because of my behavior Days 1 and 2.

I will repost: How to scumhunt day 1: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=13710

[O]

Zomg, it was posted on Mafiascum, it's now mafiabible.


But seriously:

A) RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)
B) The article is aimed at experienced mafia group play. Which we aren't
C) The article itself is heavily debated in the comments

[jotheonah]

The mafia is essentially playing a part. They are one thing, they are pretending to be something other. We, on the other hand, have the option of being authentic. Every joke that pops into my head, I can make. Every joke that pops into a mafia player's head, he must evaluate. This is their greatest weakness and our greatest strength.

I guess if our play were truly erratic it would be easy to fake, but I think O and I (and Galz and pops - whomever you consider erratic) each have a consistent voice that will emerge even in our unorthodox play. The mafioso's voice will emerge as less consistent, on account of his or her hidden agenda.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galzria

I think that concientious town players will be hyperaware of the possibility of mafia-led bandwagons. Anyone accumulating a critical mass of votes in a short time is not a good lynch target.

We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.

So, to conclude, we should all play like O until someone looks scummy.

So - rather than thoughtful posts - we should flood the forum with random stuff?  Despite my troll-vote on Galzria, I don't have an issue with some humor. 

1. We are playing a game.  Presumably we are doing this for fun. 
2. As pops pointed out about 30 pages back - it does demonstrate a sense of levity that a paranoid mafioso might not feel.

That said - O - can you clarify this post below?  Why would you guess that analysis is anti-town?  If you're going to claim your voting record in M1 as a success, how did you save TINAS without analysis?

Really? Humor is anti-town D1? Hell, I'd have guessed analysis is anti-town D1.

So... you're saying I shouldn't claim Jester? (I still claim jester, BTW)

And guys.. how do I do random voting with 15 people. I don't want to give 4 people byes.

The only thing that I have issue with are players who post frequently with 0 substance.  I don't see any of that here yet, although its still early.

[Galzria]

@Axxle

Yes, I do think it's harder to play erratically as Mafia. Every thought I made in M-II was calculated. I would've found rapid-fire banter much harder to keep honest. I won't go so far as to use that to explain the different outcomes of our two first games, as Roles (and a lack thereof) were just as important. But I absolutely think this style of play is harder to hide in than M-II for Mafia.

[Grujah]

J - you seem to, very often, have the need to say:
"we, townies". Like, you repeat that you are, in fact, townie.  This last post, but few before too.

Why?

[Glooble]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

[O]

That said - O - can you clarify this post below?  Why would you guess that analysis is anti-town?  If you're going to claim your voting record in M1 as a success, how did you save TINAS without analysis?

As much as I hate to retract on previous statements (it makes one a prime target for a bandwagon), I'd have to say your argument is compelling. I certainly analysed TINAS to the point where I thought "he claimed Vanilla townie and is acting nuts... yet a bandwagon is on him early" that lead me to believe him a non-vanilla townie.

I think I mean moreso that strictly analysis in a game- and going with whoever's analysis is the most convincing, is harmful. This is because mafia players tend (obviously people like Galzria break this) to speak with more conviction when analyzing, which means people are more likely to agree with mafia analysis than town analysis.

[jotheonah]

J - you seem to, very often, have the need to say:
"we, townies". Like, you repeat that you are, in fact, townie.  This last post, but few before too.

Why?

That's an excellent catch. I guess I noticed that a lot of people (not necessarily in this game) say "If I WERE mafia" a lot, as if their admitting the possibility seems more town. And I did that a lot in M-II.  But in keeping with my whole being maximally authentic thing, I'm just not worrying about self-identifying as town. I am town. But I can totes see that being a tell. It should make you slightly more suspicious of me.

[Dsell]

Every joke that pops into my head, I can make. Every joke that pops into a mafia player's head, he must evaluate.

I pretty much agree with the content of your post except for this quote, or rather the first part of the quote. I think that some jokes, as well as other posts, are better left unsaid. One of your very first posts in this game, claiming mafia, is a good example. I think there is a lot of risk in being a stupid townie. Erratic is one thing, but there are a lot of things that you can say that can put unnecessary suspicion on yourself. Joking around is fine but I think there is a point at which you can cross into "stupid townie" range (if the person in question is in fact a townie) and risk getting lynched. There is always a risk of getting lynched as a townie but severely exacerbating that risk is really bad town play.

[Axxle]

Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?

"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up.  Really.  Pinky promise. 
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"


@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way.  Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast.  That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.

Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun.  What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.

Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea.  It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.

Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.

[O]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

Grabbing up allies? Axxle could just as easily be putting forth articles that allow his mafia playstyle to dominate.
Not that I don't appreciate the articles; it gives me a great chance to try and refute them.

[Galzria]

J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words. It's part of the reason I opened with such direct questions at so many of you. For the people I didn't, I've tried to get some interaction with on other fronts.

I've made pretty clear that I don't believe in obvious tells. Mafia can take all day to type/retype their posts into perfection. One thing I realized from Axxle's article is that you can't debate with your suspects. They will never respond in a fashion that "adds" to their scummyness. Instead you can present a case against someone (anyone) and watch/evaluate everyone else's responses. The person you accuse, town or Mafia, is likely going to respond the same regardless.

At the end of the day, Mafia succeed by being very low on the suspects pole. They can do this through friendship (Me/You in M-II), or long winded explanations that generally look like sound reasoning (like this post? *gulp*).

Having played Mafia to success with the long, reasoned posts, I am all for trying to take that tool away from them, and keep the party rolling. I find there is just as much information out there, and perhaps we'll cause them to slip up, as they don't have the time to stay polished.

[Glooble]

I'm not sold on the article. particularly this bit:

"By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

I feel like the people doing "minorly scummy things" at the beginning of day one are almost always more likely to be disoriented townies than scum. I guess if you don't let the bandwagons get to the hammer stage they can glean you a fair amount of information, and maybe that's what he's getting at? But I don't see it.

On the other hand, Axxle giving us these articles makes him seem very town to me, since he's trying to make everyone better at scumhunting, and that's not something Mafia would want to do. But I suppose it could be some kind of double bluff? Idk, Axxle is reading very town to me right now.

Grabbing up allies? Axxle could just as easily be putting forth articles that allow his mafia playstyle to dominate.
Not that I don't appreciate the articles; it gives me a great chance to try and refute them.

Interesting possibility. I suppose we could analyze how the articles say to play mafia and see if Axxle is playing that way?

In game II, there was a lot of analysis of hunches vs. evidence. My hunches aren't telling me anyone is scum right now except maybe pops and possibly O (though as I said, I'm pretty sure this is just how he plays regardless of his role.) My hunches are telling me that Robz, Galz, and Axxle are all more likely-than-not town, but I didn't suspect Galz AT ALL in MII, so clearly he is very good.

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with.... 

[Galzria]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....

Well, M-III went to the 1 week deadline with 30+ pages. We have a 3 week deadline here... Oh good lord.

[Glooble]

Evidence - requires more time. Sorry. I got three pages into making a spreadsheet and realized I didn't have the energy tonight.

Whats great about this is that tomorrow you will have 5 more pages to deal with....

True. It may be a losing battle. Maybe I should just fill it out as I read new pages and worry about catching up later, on the assumption that later posts will have more useful information anyway. Either way, as things seem to have slowed down, I'm gonna sign off and try and get some writing done.

[Robz888]

Hello everyone.

I might be able to provoke an argument this way: I am actually fine with not killing anyone on Day 1 if I don't believe we have a good chance of actually killing a mafia member. (When I argued otherwise in Mafia II, I was a member of the mafia).

I'm not voting 'No Lynch,' and I'm not saying that should be the goal--but if we run out of time, and we have no reason to suspect anyone more than anybody else... it's better to have an additional townsperson alive on Day 2 rather than mislynch. In my view, at least.

Do you really think we'll run out of time, given the late deadline and how much talking we've done in less than ten hours? I think I agree with you in general, but I'm having a hard time seeing how, given the amount of information we'll likel have even just at the end of this week, we won't have a better-than-random chance of hitting scum.

I would rather have a Vanilla Town lynched than not lynch at all. Even if it's me. The math simply supports that being the better move. I would also rather lynch a VT than a Role. And above all that, I would rather lynch Mafia.

[/quote]

This is just a disagreement between me and Galzria. I would rather lynch no townie than a Vanilla Townie. The more innocent people alive at any given time, the better. Though I do not want to go all the way to the deadline either. I plan to vote for someone eventually, as I always do, but I won't compromise just so we get a kill, any kill.

Now, a word on humor and the mafia:

We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones. Robz expressed (in MIII) that when he played as mafia (in MII) he wrote a lot of posts and deleted them. Mafia are playing carefully. So I think people playing carelessly are less likely to be scum (myself included). Of course, that does not preclude the possibility of carefully trying to appear careless. Still, I think our rapid-fire posting should make it hard to fake erratic play (i.e. think carefully about appearing not to think carefully). Should our hypothetical mafioso then decide his or her only defense is to actually stop being so careful, well great - all the more likely they'll slip up in some actionable way.

When I deleted posts in Mafia II, I wasn't deleting funny or erratic posts. I was deleting purposeful, substantive, evidence-based, accusatory posts. I had crafted a terrific additional to the encyclopedia on why we should kill Kuildeous in Round 2... and then I deleted it. Why? I decided it was against my interests. People weren't talking about me, and they were moving toward K anyway. Why take a risk? Some of the posts I deleted were responses to questions directed at me. Why bring it up again, if it was somewhat past and the person wasn't going to pursue it? Things like that.

My point is I wasn't writing and then deleting useless or funny posts. Those are easy for anyone to make, and they don't tend to be incriminate especially early on. So, I tend to suspect people making a lot of them. I am inclined to believe the mafia are in a constant state of, "I need to say something! What should I say?" paranoia. Maybe not, but that's how I felt when I was mafia. So I look at substance free posts and they make me suspicious, now.

That doesn't mean I don't appreciate humor, and it doesn't me I suspect every person who posts something silly or stupid. Especially in this game, where so many people are posting substance-less things, my method is a little challenged, right now. And I know Galzria has a specific way of playing, and so does O, and so it's not like their weird posts really stick out to me. Anyway, I'll have to look back at some point and see who appears to be most guilty of this without mitigating factors (by mitigating, I mean being Galzria or O).

Oh, and I don't mind there being a quicktopic or any other form of outside game discussion amongst non-players and the dead.

I might not be back for awhile. I tend to post between noone and 5:00 PM (EST) and then again after midnight until 3:00 AM.

[theorel]

Yay, I read all the way from my previous post to here.  (primarily posted to mark the spot..but I'll mention a couple things)

@Axxle: yeah, I'm not sure if I'll be able to break lurking habits.  If you look me up, you'll find that I don't tend to post a lot anywhere.  (I don't know how long I've been registered here with my remarkable 8 posts, but it's been a while, and I read a while before that too).  Anyways, I'll try to provide useful information to the town, and I'll push myself to post some.  I almost posted in the area of those first three posts, but couldn't come up with what to post.

-to the other part, I do think it would be good for everyone to go back through posts, and try to glean information from what we already have, and move forward using that information to gain more.  It sounds like it's mostly been non-serious voting...Glooble's suggested he'll be trying to tabulate info, which sounds like a reasonable idea.  Regardless of any analysis that's done, in my opinion (based on lurking and thinking) it's most important that people draw their own conclusions.  Try as hard as possible, not to be swayed by others' arguments, skepticism is the town's strongest weapon in my opinion (bandwagons being Mafia's).  If 4 people go into a vote, you should be analyzing the arguments harder, because as people we have a natural tendency to want to appear smart by aligning our views with others (even when they're wrong).

-Galzria's post is very well-pointed though towards what went wrong (IMO) in Mafia-II.  People listened to Galzria's/Robz's words and ignored actions.  That's what I noticed while lurking there: everyone who lynched Morgrim (except himself) lived...every one of them.  That said, I think well analyzed posts are helpful to town...we need to use the info we have to attempt to gain more.

Anyways, now to read the rest of this mammoth thread.

[popsofctown]

Theorel, reading the the thread at least once is best thing you can do for a mafia game.

Since the complaining started I have been trying to stay very to the point for the catchups.

[jotheonah]

I just reread the whole thread. I now have suspects. One of them is Switched From Starcraft, master of the contentless-post and the barely-not-lurking, utterly uninvolved in rapidfire exchanges of any sort, and quick to vote, with little explanation, for the guy that already had two votes on him.

Thoughts?

[popsofctown]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

This is actually the sort of post that should give you an obvtown or obvscum, depending on the correct interpretation.
I'm not sure which I favor yet.

[popsofctown]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

[O]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

[Dsell]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Yeah what the heck man? I was about to post something giving my input on the matter, but I guess it's solved now? He is cleared for the rest of the game?

[Galzria]

I just reread the whole thread. I now have suspects. One of them is Switched From Starcraft, master of the contentless-post and the barely-not-lurking, utterly uninvolved in rapidfire exchanges of any sort, and quick to vote, with little explanation, for the guy that already had two votes on him.

Thoughts?

My thoughts are that it's interesting that both you and pops found him worth note in a 3 minute span, during a quiet time. Now, there's no day communication, so I can't suspect foul play there... But Pops immediately then claiming "nope, he's town, I've decided and we should no longer have any discussion on this" does bother me.

[Dsell]

Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...

[Galzria]

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

[popsofctown]

Do you think SFS is scummy, Galzria?

[Galzria]

Do you think SFS is scummy, Galzria?

Not moreso than other people.

[Axxle]

Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...

Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here.  I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd.  I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?

[Galzria]

Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...

Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here.  I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd.  I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?

Exactly

[Dsell]

@Pops, I'm like...RL worked up about this. Please do not handle yourself that way in this game. I don't even care if it's a tactic that some experienced mafia players use.

[Grujah]

And here I though DSell was sarcastic with that last post. 

[Grujah]

Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops

[Galzria]

@Pops, I'm like...RL worked up about this. Please do not handle yourself that way in this game. I don't even care if it's a tactic that some experienced mafia players use.

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso. Pops? I'm not buying it. It's WAY to calculated as a "I cannot ****ing believe these guys didn't get themselves lynched. I think I'll use it to stay alive". It's asinine play, but it doesn't feel genuine like our other troll players.

[Dsell]

Fwiw I was going to say that SFS's very serious posts have rubbed me the wrong way and struck me as somewhat odd too. But I guess my analysis and opinion don't matter now? Geez...

Can you post what you were going to post? Pops isn't the leader here.  I personally didn't really find anything odd with his posts, I found Theorel more odd.  I think Theorel himself was the only one that commented on those feelings?

I hadn't started writing yet so I don't have a saved copy or anything of what I was going to write. I don't find SFS suspicious per say but I do find his posts a little odd. I totally understand the desire to get information out there, but 1) He says that he's a funny guy and hopes this doesn't get him in trouble but says we should be more serious and 2) I don't like that he tries to tell us how to post (That's why I'm so frustrated at pops). Feels wrong to me. Like someone said, skepticism is a friend of the town, we need to really think and post our own way without being unduly affected by others.

[jotheonah]

SFS has yet to show evidence of his humorousness. He really isn't posting much. But he was all like "I'mma be funny" after the town had shown a general inclination toward appreciating humor. Like "Ooh, free town points."

[Axxle]

"Imma be funny.

Don't be funny Axxle I don't like it!"

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

[Axxle]

To be fair it was a little out of character of me.

[Galzria]

SFS has yet to show evidence of his humorousness. He really isn't posting much. But he was all like "I'mma be funny" after the town had shown a general inclination toward appreciating humor. Like "Ooh, free town points."

I agree that there are odd things ABOUT his play, but nothing I've read as Mafia/Not Mafia, and certainly not enough to say "he's town, end of story". It's not the first time Pops has made comments like this, and then refused to answer to amuse himself. Is Pops Mafia? /shrug - but it's worth exploring more than some others in my mind.

[Robz888]

Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops

So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?

[popsofctown]

When I use absolutes I don't mean "I'm right and everyone else is wrong no debate".  Speaking in absolutes is just a frequent mafia convention.  Like... the convention of referring to characters of a film set in the future in past tense. 

I regret upsetting Dsell.  It seems like I made him feel unwelcome to disagree, which is not something I want to cause.

[O]

When I use absolutes I don't mean "I'm right and everyone else is wrong no debate".

That's certainly what it sounded like to all of us.

[Dsell]

It seems like I made him feel unwelcome to disagree, which is not something I want to cause.

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

I don't mean to unduly stir the pot here but you weren't exactly inviting others to post their disagreeing ideas.

[Axxle]

Insomniac - Your timing is impeccable. Not lurking, just getting caught up.  Played golf this morning and this is the first time I've been able to read since confirming my role last night.  6 new pages, wow. Someone expressed concern that this would be longer than MIII, I suspect it will be very long indeed with 15 of us.

Voltgloss - Thanks for moderating this, with all you have going on.

fluff

Axxle - Thanks for the link to the two articles.  I found the second article to be particularly important.

slight townread (for me)

Couple of housekeeping things before I begin the substantive part of my post:
1) I am a newbie, having never played this game at all in any format.
2) I have created a temporary signature to define my abbreviations for people's names. If your name is not abbreviated in my signature, I will do my best to use it in its entirety.  I did this because someone in an earlier post used the salutation "@G", and there are 4 names in this game that start with "G".
3) I'm not going to read MI or MII (with the exception of checking the two starting posts, to verify the absence of the players in my first question below), and I will likely abandon my reading of MIII, which is currently in Night 1.
4) My gender is male, if it helps anyone avoid awkward choices of pronoun.
5) I am on EDT in the US, if that is useful info for anyone in evaluating posting patterns. (God, I'm such a data whore).

fluff

Now, on to substance:

@Theo, Gloob, Green:  You were not in MI or MII or MIII.  Have you played Forum Mafia before?  Have you played IRL?

That isn't substance...

After reading the second article that Axxle suggested, I am of the opinion that random voting on Day 1 is anti-town.  Day 1 is indeed a time for to be as non random as possible.  So, I'll be bold:

VOTE: O, because he will be voting randomly.

Pre-post addendum:  OMG, while I'm wrestling with this, another full page?  I started this literally one minute after #211.

Not original, and he complains later about O not addressing it.  We all know O's random, O most of all.


I really don't see how you can get a town read off this guy.  I'm not getting a strong mafia read off him but pops, can you explain a bit.  Or is it all just gut.

[Galzria]

@Robz, yes, it is very worth watching.

[Dsell]

I regret upsetting Dsell.  It seems like I made him feel unwelcome to disagree, which is not something I want to cause.

Thanks, though.

[Grujah]

Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops

So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?

I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one).

Though I do find myself getting too easily won over (have this feeling in RL as well as here, actually).

[Robz888]

Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops

So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?

I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one).

Though I do find myself getting too easily won over (have this feeling in RL as well as here, actually).

You find yourself getting easily won over in real life, or during mafia in real life?

[Grujah]

Generally.

But my intention here was to purposly jump the bandwagon.

[O]

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.

Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?

[Grujah]

This genuinely cracked me up.

[Galzria]

Generally.

But my intention here was to purposly jump the bandwagon.

Waiting for Pops to elaborate, but could see my vote moving here.

[Axxle]

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.

Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?

I want to complete it, I'm currently failing.

[Galzria]

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.

Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?

Unintentional, I swear!

[Axxle]

O can be O 'cause he's O,
TINAS, same thing but moreso,
Both play randomly
And later we'll see
If either is mafioso.

[Axxle]

Not great but... it's something.

[Galzria]

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Galzria has his confidence, Robz refuses to vote, to take a stance"

Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?

[Galzria]

O can be O because he's O. TINAS, same thing but moreso.
Galzria has his confidence, Robz refuses to vote, to take a stance
Axxle wants to leave out humor, these damn games give me a tumor

Is it just me or does this hilariously sound like the first two lines of a F.DS Mafia limerick?

[Galzria]

*Ahem* Back to scum hunting.

Since I've been presented no reason to remove my vote, I'm leaving it on Pops.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people groggily awoke from a wine-and-cheese-induced stupor to find one of them, perhaps while unconscious, had scrawled a limerick on the Cellar door:

"O can be O 'cause he's O
TINAS, same thing but moreso
But pops is so terse
It comes across worse
And so on him votes we will throw"

Vote Count 1-3

Galzria (1) - Captain_Frisk
Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (4) - Insomniac, O, Galzria, Grujah

Not Voting {8} - Robz888, theorel, Glooble, Tables, jotheonah, Axxle, Dsell, Green Opal

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Players comfortable with a discussion quicktopic (11) - Dsell, O, Galzria, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, jotheonah, Glooble, Green Opal, Axxle, Grujah, Robz888

[Glooble]

Ok, going to bed now (work at 7!) but a few thoughts first:

I'm finding pop's ultimatum's and refusal to explain things a little on the scummy side, but it also seems a bit obvious for scum play, especially from a veteran player. Axxle's analysis of SFS, on the other hand, resonates with me. It looks very much like "post enough to get noticed, not enough to make anyone notice me enough to get mad at me." - in other words, good first day Mafia strategy.

If I had to vote now, I'd probably go SFS. Fortunately, we still have a long way before the deadline. I would like to hear some more from SFS, if not convictions at least suspicions. It's odd that being too certain reads scum, but so does never being certain, but that's how I see it right now.

I'll probably be back around 3:30 - 4:00 tomorrow, at which point I imagine there will be 10 - 15 new pages to catch up on.

[Axxle]

"O can be O 'cause he's O
TINAS, same thing but moreso
But pops is so terse
It comes across worse
And so on him votes we will throw"

Convinced!

Vote: pops

Really, I just think that he's taking way to long to respond to our simple request of explaining himself.

[Axxle]

Unvote thought he was at 3

[Galzria]

Unvote thought he was at 3

Are you worried he will get hammered if he has 5 votes?

[O]

This thread... became so awesome.. so quickly...

@Axxle, 8 votes to hammer right? 5 is pressure but still not too too immediately dangerous

[Axxle]

I guess you guys are right.  My instinct about votecounts is slightly off because of how many people are in the game. 

Vote: Pops

[Robz888]

Okay, I'm trying re-trace the thread of how Pops got 4 votes. (I'm not saying he doesn't deserve them, but man, those piled in fast.)

If everyone could use the convention VOTE: PERSON, it would be easier to find them now. As it is, I don't see O's vote for Pops.

So, Insomniac voted for him, then Galzria jumped on, then Grujah jumped on (with no explanation), then O? When was O's vote?

I know Pops is an advanced player, and I wasn't taking his off-putting gruffness personally. Rather, I thought he had some strategic reason for doing it. I agree that he should explain it, and I understand that people are more liberal with votes than I am. But, bandwagon much? Grujah? Galzria? O? Axxle? (Again, I'm not certain about the timing of O's vote.)

[Dsell]

I'm weighing the idea of voting for pops. Trying to decide how likely/unlikely it is that he is mafia. It's pretty bandwagony already, and it's pretty early on. And I don't actually know how much information we would get by hammering him right now. However, I do kinda want to make a point, if nothing else. And I don't like AT ALL being told how to think or post or vote. I think I'm going to refrain for now but that may change in the future. I am just not at the point where I really suspect him yet over everyone else.

Pre-post edit: Yeah with Axxle's vote I feel ok not voting right now.

[Axxle]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

[Galzria]

O's vote was about 4-5 posts before mine.

[theorel]

And, that's the whole thread.  Now for a quick post before bed...

@Pops: I didn't mean to say I wasn't going to read the thread (although I guess I did say IF...put it up to frustration at number of posts to read (especially because I couldn't read some while waiting for code to run at work because I couldn't get on f.DS))  The IF was more of a IF I read it all before I post.

Okay, the rest:

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...  Maybe this day will last a long time, slow down a bit, and things will change.

Things directed at me:
I played mafia IRL in college a few times.  I enjoyed it, but enjoyed more reading Mafia I and II.  I decided I wanted to play a forum game, since I haven't in some time...here I am with no forum mafia experience.

Quicktopic is totally fine by me

Hmm...Pops is at 4, so he's unlikely to be mafia...IMO too quick to build.  Of course Axxle was willing to push it further (from 3 to 4 also) nvm he hit it to 5.  Hmm...Draw your own conclusions, I don't think Pops is acting scummy.  The question is who's pushing the bandwagon looking for scum, and who's scum trying to jump on?

Wonder how many posts will be up by the time I read tomorrow morning?

[Robz888]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

Got it. Because there was no space between the colon and the player name, I could not find it.

[Galzria]

I'm weighing the idea of voting for pops. Trying to decide how likely/unlikely it is that he is mafia. It's pretty bandwagony already, and it's pretty early on. And I don't actually know how much information we would get by hammering him right now. However, I do kinda want to make a point, if nothing else. And I don't like AT ALL being told how to think or post or vote. I think I'm going to refrain for now but that may change in the future. I am just not at the point where I really suspect him yet over everyone else.

Pre-post edit: Yeah with Axxle's vote I feel ok not voting right now.

It probably IS too band wagon for him to be Mafia, but I'm comfortable at 5, and will back down if he explains himself.

[jotheonah]

Ok, going to bed now (work at 7!) but a few thoughts first:

I'm finding pop's ultimatum's and refusal to explain things a little on the scummy side, but it also seems a bit obvious for scum play, especially from a veteran player. Axxle's analysis of SFS, on the other hand, resonates with me. It looks very much like "post enough to get noticed, not enough to make anyone notice me enough to get mad at me." - in other words, good first day Mafia strategy.

If I had to vote now, I'd probably go SFS. Fortunately, we still have a long way before the deadline. I would like to hear some more from SFS, if not convictions at least suspicions. It's odd that being too certain reads scum, but so does never being certain, but that's how I see it right now.

I'll probably be back around 3:30 - 4:00 tomorrow, at which point I imagine there will be 10 - 15 new pages to catch up on.

Axxle's? Dude, I was the one advocating SFS. And for the record, I still am. Mafia is not going to be drawing attention. We're looking for a pseudo-lurker.

[jotheonah]

It is damn hard to actually post a reply with the speed at which updates are flying.

[jotheonah]

In fact, if nothing else to get his attention: Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft

[Axxle]

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...

This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.

[Galzria]

@Robz, why are you so worried about Pops? 5 is far from 8. I had forgotten Insomniac had voted way back when, but your suspicions that we band wagoned to join him are ludicrous. I believe O and myself have reasons for voting Pops. Both of us have expressed interest in JUST HEARING an explication. So I really don't understand your points or concerns for Pops.

[Robz888]

In the future, when people ask me to give an example of a post I find to have the right mix of factors to make it suspicious in my view, I will point to this one:

And, that's the whole thread.  Now for a quick post before bed...

@Pops: I didn't mean to say I wasn't going to read the thread (although I guess I did say IF...put it up to frustration at number of posts to read (especially because I couldn't read some while waiting for code to run at work because I couldn't get on f.DS))  The IF was more of a IF I read it all before I post.

Okay, the rest:

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...  Maybe this day will last a long time, slow down a bit, and things will change.

Things directed at me:
I played mafia IRL in college a few times.  I enjoyed it, but enjoyed more reading Mafia I and II.  I decided I wanted to play a forum game, since I haven't in some time...here I am with no forum mafia experience.

Quicktopic is totally fine by me

Hmm...Pops is at 4, so he's unlikely to be mafia...IMO too quick to build.  Of course Axxle was willing to push it further (from 3 to 4 also) nvm he hit it to 5.  Hmm...Draw your own conclusions, I don't think Pops is acting scummy.  The question is who's pushing the bandwagon looking for scum, and who's scum trying to jump on?

Wonder how many posts will be up by the time I read tomorrow morning?

See how it hits all the bases: Immediately taking back something that caused the slightest friction? Check. Light humor? Check. Reminder of player's inexperience? Check. Substance-less commentary masquerading as substance? Check. Restated questions? Check. Emoticon? Almost.

I don't mean to pick on you, Theorel. Glad to have you in the game, and thanks for doing all that reading. But... these posts make me suspicious, because they are easy posts for a mafia to make. If I had to pick a template for what your average mafia-person would say in this game, it would look like this.

[Robz888]

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...

This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.

As I just posted, it gives me the exact opposite read.

[jotheonah]

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...

This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.

WAAAY to early to be talking about partners IMO. You'll go mad. Plus, don't forget - there are Masons. So play that appears collaborative, could be Masoney.

[Robz888]

@Robz, why are you so worried about Pops? 5 is far from 8. I had forgotten Insomniac had voted way back when, but your suspicions that we band wagoned to join him are ludicrous. I believe O and myself have reasons for voting Pops. Both of us have expressed interest in JUST HEARING an explication. So I really don't understand your points or concerns for Pops.

I'm not concerned for Pops. I'm concerned about who is voting Pops, and why. Many of you have good reasons--and many of you voiced them. But a couple people just kind of got in there to register a vote. You don't think it was odd? I don't think it was odd of YOU, Galzria. You vote all the time.

[jotheonah]

I have no reason to believe there are any scum on the bandwagon ATM. Maybe Grujah.

[Robz888]

I have no reason to believe there are any scum on the bandwagon ATM. Maybe Grujah.

Well, Grujah was also the one who stuck out to me. I didn't have the order straight of who voted when regarding O, so now that I see when his vote came in, it's not as odd.

[Galzria]

I have no reason to believe there are any scum on the bandwagon ATM. Maybe Grujah.

Well, Grujah was also the one who stuck out to me. I didn't have the order straight of who voted when regarding O, so now that I see when his vote came in, it's not as odd.

And if you look back (I know things move quickly), I indicated that if Pops gives an explanation, I could see moving my vote to Gruj.

[Robz888]

Anybody want to weigh in on what I said about Thoerel? His post really struck me, and Axxle had the opposite reaction from me.

[Galzria]

Generally.

But my intention here was to purposly jump the bandwagon.

I mean, really?

[O]

It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.

[Axxle]

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...

This strikes me as incredibly Vanilla Town, for whatever reason. Maybe something between the combination of "I don't understand why you're treating me differently" and just the right amount of resignment.
Although this can also warrant looking at who's been attacking SFS and Glooble since they might be Theorel's potential partners if he is mafia.

As I just posted, it gives me the exact opposite read.

Logically I should have the same read as you.  But "for whatever reason" my gut says no.  I'm fine being wrong if enough other people are in agreement with you.  Or if he does something else that smacks of mafia.

I'll discuss where my vote goes after pops responds.

[Galzria]

Anybody want to weigh in on what I said about Thoerel? His post really struck me, and Axxle had the opposite reaction from me.

I didn't find it either tbh. I understand that some people don't realize what they're signing up for, especially with people like Me, J, Robz, Me, O, Me, and others driving the post count up at a million pages an hour.

[Robz888]

Fair enough.

[Galzria]

It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.

I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.

[Axxle]

It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.

I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.

It may be my fault.  The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.

[Galzria]

It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.

I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.

It may be my fault.  The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.

True, and fair point. I'm not in any way convinced that vote makes him Mafia. I just believe it's a fair place to look if Pops doesn't speak up, which I'm honestly thinking more and more as being a disengage tactic to try and get people to unvote, hoping he didn't give away enough for people to be SURE of him.

[Dsell]

@Robz, I see what you are saying. I also think it could be that he(?) is legitimately new, but he almost disproves that himself by saying he's played quite a bit before. And then as a point of interest, he says that he has followed M I & II, but does not mention reading Mafia III, where you made a big deal of denouncing as mafia-like posts exactly like what he just posted. Yeah, whether it's mafia or not, he is gonna learn fast that posts like that are cookie-cutter mafia. We apparently like really funny or really meaty, and that post was neither. I think it's too soon to draw any strong conclusions but I think he may be one to watch.

[Dsell]

I just believe it's a fair place to look if Pops doesn't speak up, which I'm honestly thinking more and more as being a disengage tactic to try and get people to unvote, hoping he didn't give away enough for people to be SURE of him.

Yeah where is pops? He is online right now.

[Grujah]

@Me -
As I said when Rob called me out:
"I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one)."

"VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings."

I.E. I want to see Pops pressured, as his lack of explanation, rash and too-confident handling of SFS was strange.


@Theo -
I actually found his post #367 to be more-townie-likely (the game part not the lurking and not posting part). Though this accusation made against him (Axxl's) do give me and off-beat and make me weary. (Yeah, quite impressable here?)

[Grujah]

Pops is online for some time, he posted some short time ago in his Fan Expansion thread. (are things like this too metagame-y? I mean, things like following people on forum (or even Iso!))

[Robz888]

@Me -
As I said when Rob called me out:
"I merely agree to Galz post (quoted one)."

"VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings."

I.E. I want to see Pops pressured, as his lack of explanation, rash and too-confident handling of SFS was strange.


@Theo -
I actually found his post #367 to be more-townie-likely (the game part not the lurking and not posting part). Though this accusation made against him (Axxl's) do give me and off-beat and make me weary. (Yeah, quite impressable here?)

Ugh, yeah... I grown to myself and say "well he's mafia" every time anybody downplays their own abilities. "I'm new," you're allowed to say once. Once. This is the second time Grujah has called himself impressionable. If I say I find this highly suspect, will he agree with me?

[O]

Pops is online for some time, he posted some short time ago in his Fan Expansion thread. (are things like this too metagame-y? I mean, things like following people on forum (or even Iso!))

It's not too meta in the sense that it's allowed, but Pops probably cares a good amount about his fan expansion and I wouldn't think it means too much if hes spending time in that thread and ignoring this for a bit.

[Galzria]

Pops is online for some time, he posted some short time ago in his Fan Expansion thread. (are things like this too metagame-y? I mean, things like following people on forum (or even Iso!))

I'm aware of online/offline status, but try to not use it in accusations, as it isn't directly game related, is easily defendable, and makes it look like your mission to lynch is WAY to directed.

[Axxle]

I don't care if he's on iso. The world doesn't revolve around Mafia. But if he's on the forum we have to assume he's following the thread.  He can at least pop (heh) in and say: "Be with you in a minute" or something.

[jotheonah]

Well, I'm going to bed. If you guys are gonna stay up and play, I'd love it if someone would weigh in on SFS (thank you Axxle for at least giving it some consideration). Dude only has like 3 posts to analyze. But I think there's something there. See you all in the morning I guess.

[popsofctown]

uh.  be with you in a minute.  I'm not up to date on the thread.  Trying to work on a fan expansion, this, and homework-until-i-get-frustrated-and-give-up at the same time.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your question answered itself.  Your misunderstanding arises for oversimplification.

This is really interesting.  I have a mental view of you and your style based on your moderation of M1 - but you're completely different over here. 

I am inherently suspicious of anyone who seems confident that they know what they are doing - like there is some kindof master plan.  Maybe its just lack of experience, but it seems like there's really no way to truly have that level of confidence.  I'm keeping an eye on you.


Pre Post Edit - 6 MORE?
Oh - and Unvote  I'm not really any more suspicious of Galzria than anyone else at this point.

Oh - Volt - I had UNVOTEd a while back - before your most recent vote count.  I doubt it matters, but for accuracy.  I'm not up to speed on thread - so won't comment - but would generally recommend against lynching someone 5% of the way through our allotted time.

[popsofctown]

I've been in a game like that.  I decided to come out as cop with an innocent on the day 2 lynch target to try to get the game on the right track.  And I did.  One of my least satisfying wins as mafia though.
(there's a moral here)

[Axxle]

I've been in a game like that.  I decided to come out as cop with an innocent on the day 2 lynch target to try to get the game on the right track.  And I did.  One of my least satisfying wins as mafia though.
(there's a moral here)

err... what is this in response to?

[popsofctown]

If I don't specify my stimulus, it's the last portion of the most recent post.

[Axxle]

Ok, it just felt really disconnected.

[Galzria]

I've been in a game like that.  I decided to come out as cop with an innocent on the day 2 lynch target to try to get the game on the right track.  And I did.  One of my least satisfying wins as mafia though.
(there's a moral here)

err... what is this in response to?

What I got from it was that he fakeclaimed (came out as cop, declaring lynch target day 2 is a confirmed innocent - went on to win as Mafia). What his point is, who he's talking to, or why he feels it's so important for him not to give straight answers, I don't know. Thoughts? Gruj? Axxle? Robz? O?

[O]

I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

THIS POST WAS STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER READING #444.  NOTE: MY SIGNATURE HAS ADDED AN ABBREVIATION FOR JOTHEONAH.

What the hell have I gotten myself into.  This is an insane amount of material.  I'm up to the minute as I begin this post. I will post more later tonite on the issues that have come up surrounding me specifically since I was last current.  Note that my schedule is somewhat irregular as I am the caregiver for my elderly mother. Things come up that keep me away from the keyboard for long periods of time (3+ hours) - meals, outings, etc.  However, I stay logged in, because its just easier.  FFR, my intent is to spend the most amount of time here between about 20:30 and 23:59 EDT (UTC -5?)

My spreadsheet is handwritten (I'm a dinosaur compared to you guys), so I'll take things in order I wrote them down.  Here's what I've noticed from today, and/or want to pursue:

1) At #337 (p14), JO wrote: "We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones." This statement hit me oddly.  The first part of it somehow feels like an overt subliminal suggestion (if there could be such a thing) not to look for tells. Just doesn't give off the right vibe somehow.

2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot".  Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly?  I must have missed it.  Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town").  no pun intended

3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across?  Can you elaborate?

More in the next hour.

[Axxle]

I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...

He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.

[O]

2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot".  Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly?  I must have missed it.  Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town").  no pun intended

I'm sorry sir, but I'm going to have to give you minus 100 internets.

This is a rickroll: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0. Its a link people send other people to as a prank, which I did in my proposed-randomized voting part.

I listened to Captain Frisk (i'll find his post in a sec) when he said I had already started discussion and didn't need the random vote anymore.

[O]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

Damnit O - this is a bad idea too.  There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving.  You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know.  You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.

Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?

To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).

And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that 

This is where I abandon the random-voting tactic

[O]

3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across?  Can you elaborate?

More in the next hour.

Finally, post #350 was in response to the article which Axxle (I believe Axxle) linked us all in the first day. The comment is solely saying how I disagree with the article, and while you're welcome to read the article to try to gleen some mafia perspective on me from it, it's not altogether amazingly relevant to who is or isn't mafia.   

[Robz888]

THIS POST WAS STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER READING #444.  NOTE: MY SIGNATURE HAS ADDED AN ABBREVIATION FOR JOTHEONAH.

What the hell have I gotten myself into.  This is an insane amount of material.  I'm up to the minute as I begin this post. I will post more later tonite on the issues that have come up surrounding me specifically since I was last current.  Note that my schedule is somewhat irregular as I am the caregiver for my elderly mother. Things come up that keep me away from the keyboard for long periods of time (3+ hours) - meals, outings, etc.  However, I stay logged in, because its just easier.  FFR, my intent is to spend the most amount of time here between about 20:30 and 23:59 EDT (UTC -5?)

My spreadsheet is handwritten (I'm a dinosaur compared to you guys), so I'll take things in order I wrote them down.  Here's what I've noticed from today, and/or want to pursue:

1) At #337 (p14), JO wrote: "We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones." This statement hit me oddly.  The first part of it somehow feels like an overt subliminal suggestion (if there could be such a thing) not to look for tells. Just doesn't give off the right vibe somehow.

2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot".  Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly?  I must have missed it.  Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town").  no pun intended

3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across?  Can you elaborate?

More in the next hour.

Viewers at home will know how I feel about this post...

[Dsell]

THIS POST WAS STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER READING #444.  NOTE: MY SIGNATURE HAS ADDED AN ABBREVIATION FOR JOTHEONAH.

What the hell have I gotten myself into.  This is an insane amount of material.  I'm up to the minute as I begin this post. I will post more later tonite on the issues that have come up surrounding me specifically since I was last current.  Note that my schedule is somewhat irregular as I am the caregiver for my elderly mother. Things come up that keep me away from the keyboard for long periods of time (3+ hours) - meals, outings, etc.  However, I stay logged in, because its just easier.  FFR, my intent is to spend the most amount of time here between about 20:30 and 23:59 EDT (UTC -5?)

My spreadsheet is handwritten (I'm a dinosaur compared to you guys), so I'll take things in order I wrote them down.  Here's what I've noticed from today, and/or want to pursue:

1) At #337 (p14), JO wrote: "We can't be looking for obvious tells, but we should hunt for subconcious ones." This statement hit me oddly.  The first part of it somehow feels like an overt subliminal suggestion (if there could be such a thing) not to look for tells. Just doesn't give off the right vibe somehow.

2) @ O, (or should I say @. - don't want to leave you bummed at not having an abbreviation, cause ya know, JO has one now): In #275 (p12), you stated "and that I'm not voting randomly (by the rickroll) anymore so your point was completely moot".  Can you provide me with the post # in which you made it clear that you had abandoned your intent to vote randomly?  I must have missed it.  Also, what's a "rickroll"? (Please don't say "$20, same as in town").  no pun intended

3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across?  Can you elaborate?

More in the next hour.

Viewers at home will know how I feel about this post...

How crazy would it be if we had multiple noobs as mafia?

[popsofctown]

I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...

He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.

This kid gets it.


SFS is town because he made a post, deleted it, but ultimately did actually make the post in which he declared he would use humor. 
Whenever I debate whether to make a post or delete it as mafia, the longer I deliberate, the less likely I am to approve the message to wander dangerously out to sea. 

He was also transparent about this process, but not in an apologetic defensive way.  scumSwitched would not mention his uncertainty in whether or not to post a declaration he would use humor, he'd more likely keep it to himself because it makes him seem like mafia afraid of looking bad.

He's at that absolutely new phase where I'm going to put it past him to fake something like confessing to posting anxiety.  He's my strongest town read in the game thus far.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Galzria - At #361, you stated "Having played Mafia to success with the long, reasoned posts...".  In that success, were you Mafia?

[Dsell]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

[Galzria]

Galzria - At #361, you stated "Having played Mafia to success with the long, reasoned posts...".  In that success, were you Mafia?

It was a reference to M-II here on the forums, and yes, I was. Also, the "long winded posts" was a vast understatement.

[Galzria]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

He typed up, thought about posting, then deleted.

[Robz888]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

I think he means deleted before posting it. But I don't know how he knows that. I could believe that SFS is actually really new and naive. (I don't, but I could.) The first thing a genuinely new and naive player who was mafia would do, given basic competence, would over emphasize his naivety.

[Dsell]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

He typed up, thought about posting, then deleted.

Oh ok. Did I miss where he said this somewhere?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

3) @O again: In #350 (p15) you said "...RVS doesn't mention anything about Jokes or Humor, which most of the random votes have been (notable exception: Popsofctown)". I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to get across?  Can you elaborate?

More in the next hour.

Finally, post #350 was in response to the article which Axxle (I believe Axxle) linked us all in the first day. The comment is solely saying how I disagree with the article, and while you're welcome to read the article to try to gleen some mafia perspective on me from it, it's not altogether amazingly relevant to who is or isn't mafia.   

I read the article, and have commented on same, at .  Interesting.It was the reference to Pops that I didnt get.  Are you saying that his vote was random, but not meant humorously?  Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)? 

[Galzria]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

I think he means deleted before posting it. But I don't know how he knows that. I could believe that SFS is actually really new and naive. (I don't, but I could.) The first thing a genuinely new and naive player who was mafia would do, given basic competence, would over emphasize his naivety.

I recall SFS saying he had done so.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

*at 242, as I recall.

[O]

Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?

You're correct here.

[Axxle]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

Dug it up for you guys.  Pretty clear.  I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.

[O]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

Dug it up for you guys.  Pretty clear.  I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.

I not only disagree with it, I don't understand how Pops really can get any serious read from that, guilty or not guilty.

[Galzria]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

[Galzria]

Sorry! Didn't show missed posts warning!

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I don't feel very comfortable with SFS. I feel like he has said a LOT of nothing so far. I know we are posting a lot but that is not an excuse to not add any content whatsoever.

Pre-post edit: Pops, SFS deleted a post? Uhh this is against the rules in this game, right?

He typed up, thought about posting, then deleted.

I did what? To what post are you referring?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?

You're correct here.

So why was he the primary exception?  My vote for you was not at all in jest.

[O]

Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?

You're correct here.

So why was he the primary exception?  My vote for you was not at all in jest.

We were talking about random votes not made in jest. Your vote was not random.

[Dsell]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

Dug it up for you guys.  Pretty clear.  I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.

Oops yeah I just missed this. I read that post but missed that phrase.

But on the topic of that post: SFS, you said in your "original" introduction that you would be using lots of humor, that you weren't even concerned if that gets you lynched. So far, you have been one of the most anti-humor people in the game? Care to comment on this? Did you write and delete that post because that is not how you ended up wanting to present yourself?

[Galzria]

I think, for the moment, Unvote[/b%. Pops hasn't convinced me AT ALL, but I am wary that he hit 5 votes so quickly, and I'm not sure of his guilt much more than others in that list. He responded, I unvoted. Now to reread some.

[Galzria]

I think, for the moment, Unvote. Pops hasn't convinced me AT ALL, but I am wary that he hit 5 votes so quickly, and I'm not sure of his guilt much more than others in that list. He responded, I unvoted. Now to reread some.

Fixed.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

Dug it up for you guys.  Pretty clear.  I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.

Man, it's tough to stay in near real time.  What I was saying was that in my opening post for Day 1 (#242), I debated putting the comment (about my use of humor) so much that I typed it up and deleted it three separate times.  I would never delete a post, it's against the rules, and could drastically affect game play. I was under the impression (at the time of my writing, based on posts I'd read) that humor was seen as anti town.  (The you have all been warned was an attempt at the aforementioned humor.  I never claimed to be funny.)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Or are you saying that his vote was the exception because it was serious (as in, not meant in jest)?

You're correct here.

So why was he the primary exception?  My vote for you was not at all in jest.

We were talking about random votes not made in jest. Your vote was not random.

Got it, thanks for the clarification.

[popsofctown]

guys, come on this is obvtown posting

I've been told I often make the right calls for the wrong reasons because I have a strong gut.  Maybe just trust a brotha?  There's 14 other players.  I'm including myself, at least if I die my ideas gain more credence.

[popsofctown]

i am referring to sfs

[Galzria]

@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:

 

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

[Galzria]

guys, come on this is obvtown posting

I've been told I often make the right calls for the wrong reasons because I have a strong gut.  Maybe just trust a brotha?  There's 14 other players.  I'm including myself, at least if I die my ideas gain more credence.

I will not trust anyone because they ask me to, no.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

Damnit O - this is a bad idea too.  There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving.  You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know.  You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.

Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?

To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).

And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that 

This is where I abandon the random-voting tactic

And you are asserting that your abandonment of that idea is mad clear by which part of that post?

[O]

1 - Galzria
2 - Dsell
3 - Insomniac
4 - Robz888
5 - Captain_Frisk
6 - Axxle
7 - theorel
8 - Glooble
9 - popsofctown
10 - Tables
11 - Grujah
12 - jotheonah
13 - SwitchedFromStarcraft
(0)/14 - Green Opal

Last three digits mod 14 of the view count of This Video by 5 PM EST

Damnit O - this is a bad idea too.  There's no way for ANYONE else to know what the viewcount @ 5pm is... especially since the # is always moving.  You'll be able to claim anything you want - with no way for us to know.  You might as well pick a name from a hat - another unverifiable randomization process.

Anyhow - you've already accomplished the discussion - why don't you just skip the random voting and accuse someone?

To be honest, I just wanted to rickroll someone (though I could always Screencap that statistic).

And I've found Axxle very erratic this game so far. i feel like he's trying to be me, which annoys me. Only I get to do that 

This is where I abandon the random-voting tactic

And you are asserting that your abandonment of that idea is mad clear by which part of that post?

By the passive (no, not explicit) agreement with Captain Frisk and explanation for my motives for the random voting?

Also, the fact that I haven't *done* the random voting (I said I would at 5 EST), though obviously your response is that I could have jumped ship because of your vote. You're just going to have to trust me that your vote didn't scare me that much.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

Pops, was your comment about laying off me, or Galzria?

[O]

It's town.  Lay off him.  Let's move onward.

Vote:Popsofctown for being Galzria-Confident on steroids, to the point of trying to stifle conversation.

Pops, was your comment about laying off me, or Galzria?

RAARRRGGGGHHHHH, I SHALL MURDER THEE IN THY SLEEP STARCRAFT!@!

Owait, I'm not mafia.

But that was actually a reference to Mafia-III, where Galzria was an extremely confident townie. But as Mafia III is still in play I wasn't really supposed to make that reference in the first place.

[Dsell]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I might use . instead.  That wouldnt cause much problem would it?

OK, it's not going to be possible for me to play this game without humor.  It's who I am, and the game is supposed to be fun.  I typed and deleted (about 3 times) in my opening post the following, and should have just left it in:

I will be using humor (and potentially emoticons) in my posts.  If that gets me lynched, so be it.  This is a game of evaluations, and if I am lynched because I say something intended to be funny, it will help me evaluate my game experience.

You have all been warned!

Dug it up for you guys.  Pretty clear.  I don't share the same conclusions as pops though.

Oops yeah I just missed this. I read that post but missed that phrase.

But on the topic of that post: SFS, you said in your "original" introduction that you would be using lots of humor, that you weren't even concerned if that gets you lynched. So far, you have been one of the most anti-humor people in the game? Care to comment on this? Did you write and delete that post because that is not how you ended up wanting to present yourself?

See my reply at #490.

Why do you say I am anti-humor?

[Galzria]

@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:

 

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

[Galzria]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

I agree. I wish Volt were around to link a youtube video. He always knows how to describe the villages mood. We're going nowhere fast with all this back and forth.

[Robz888]

I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).

[Galzria]

I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).

Will you give updated thoughts on SFS? I know what you thought of Theoral's post. But SFS has now said more.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

I guess I'm still feeling my way around.  This doesn't feel like a team exercise, so I'm off in my own little world trying to collect information, cause I'm gonna be way slower than you guys at this. My strategy is to contribute the information I have, and I have tried to do that in the past hour in the asking of questions about posts.  I'm trying to hold people fully accountable for what they write.  The "defending" (which I think is different from "defensiveness"  in the same way that "alone" is different from "lonely"), is because I intend to be fully accountable for what I write.

There was a post earlier about someone using the terminology "we townies" in a couple of posts, and what that meant. I guess I've now joined that club.  Someone tell me what it means, if it means anything.

Who do I suspect?  I dont know.  I find it weird that Pops JUMPED to my (I think it was "my", but have asked for confirmation) defense with the "He's town, lay off him" comment in #371, but then in #469 ACCUSES me of deleting a post, a notion I have since rebuted (sp?).  (Anyone still wondering about my commitment to the notion of not deleting a post should be apparent by my three tries (at #322, 324, and 326) to unvote correctly in bold).  Pops was also the first responder (at#64) to my inquiry at potentially playing in the game.  In that response, he claimed "I was one of his favorite posters on f.DS".  Maybe he thought a newb would be easy to manipulate if he caught a Mafia role?

IRL, I have a 34-year career in laboratory chemistry and quality assurance.  My loyalty is always to accurate data, so I'm going to concentrate on making sure that the data available on me are correct, because bad data generally leads to bad decisions, and because good documentation is what I know. If that approach comes across as defending, I'm good with that.

SPeaking of loyalty to good data, before I vote on a discussion thread being started, can anyone speak to the possibility of information becoming accessible (probably inadvertently) through contamination of the discussion threads for MI and MII and MIII?

On the subject of EDITING posts (note, I did not say deleting posts), is what Axxle did with

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

*with the last line of #325 ok to do (the strike throughs?)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

and now everyone has gone to bed.

[Robz888]

SPeaking of loyalty to good data, before I vote on a discussion thread being started, can anyone speak to the possibility of information becoming accessible (probably inadvertently) through contamination of the discussion threads for MI and MII and MIII?

I'm sure the discussion threads for MI and MII did not pollute the game. MIII is more controversial because the discussion thread is more successful, but... I don't see a probably with it. But I'm weird in that I wouldn't really care if the audience had an ongoing poll about who they think is mafia. It's not like they have more info than we do.

The bigger worry is probably info from ongoing mafia games sneaking in to other ongoing mafia games. I am very careful not to post things from MIII, even when I think they might be helpful observations. That's just me.

I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).

Will you give updated thoughts on SFS? I know what you thought of Theoral's post. But SFS has now said more.

To be honest, SFS's posts are actually reading TOO naive to be deliberate mafia strategy to me. I'm irked that he isn't being bolder, but I'm not irked in a suspicious way. Just irked. What do you think?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SPeaking of loyalty to good data, before I vote on a discussion thread being started, can anyone speak to the possibility of information becoming accessible (probably inadvertently) through contamination of the discussion threads for MI and MII and MIII?

I'm sure the discussion threads for MI and MII did not pollute the game. MIII is more controversial because the discussion thread is more successful, but... I don't see a probably with it. But I'm weird in that I wouldn't really care if the audience had an ongoing poll about who they think is mafia. It's not like they have more info than we do.

The bigger worry is probably info from ongoing mafia games sneaking in to other ongoing mafia games. I am very careful not to post things from MIII, even when I think they might be helpful observations. That's just me.

I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).

Will you give updated thoughts on SFS? I know what you thought of Theoral's post. But SFS has now said more.

To be honest, SFS's posts are actually reading TOO naive to be deliberate mafia strategy to me. I'm irked that he isn't being bolder, but I'm not irked in a suspicious way. Just irked. What do you think?

Gotta love the noobs.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm gonna be on for about 10 more naive minutes, if I can respond to anyone else's concerns or inquiries.

[Robz888]

I'm gonna be on for about 10 more naive minutes, if I can respond to anyone else's concerns or inquiries.

SFS, you MUST answer this. Who do you think is the mafia?

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.

Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?

[Voltgloss]

No flavor this time, in favor of a Youtube link (per Galz's request) that I think may reflect some of the new players' feelings now that they've dipped their toes in the game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv33SsGHYHo

Vote Count 1-4

Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (4) - Insomniac, O, Grujah, Axxle
SwitchedFromStarcraft (1) - jotheonah

Not Voting {8} - Robz888, theorel, Glooble, Tables, Dsell, Green Opal, Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Players comfortable with a discussion quicktopic (12) - Dsell, O, Galzria, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, jotheonah, Glooble, Green Opal, Axxle, Grujah, Robz888, theorel

[Captain_Frisk]

Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?

Disregard - when I went back and just filtered to posts by him - it does look like frequent posting, but nothing exciting.  I don't know that he's going to have a good answer to who he thinks is mafia... but I'm curious to hear what he says.

[Dsell]

@C_F, for me it's just that he hasn't said (well maybe he has a bit now) anything. His posts have really been devoid of any meaning, which is suspicious to me. I'm really glad he's finally attempting to have substance but I'm going to wait and see if his posts get any better.

[Robz888]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.

Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?

I'm not railing on him, but I want to hear more worthwhile things while I have his ear.

[Axxle]

SFS, that strikethrough wasn't an edit per say, I wrote it before you updated your post with bold and just put a strikethrough indicating that I was going to post it but you invalidated what I was going to post.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm gonna be on for about 10 more naive minutes, if I can respond to anyone else's concerns or inquiries.

SFS, you MUST answer this. Who do you think is the mafia?

I laughed out loud. How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences. (e.g., I have no idea what the vote count is, and am too tired to go back and tally for myself.  I will start noting the VOLTGLOSS posts though, so I only have to wade through X pages of post when I need a count).

[Galzria]

@Robz, to be honest, post #440 applies somewhat here too. But that doesn't really address the fact that regardless if they knew or not what they were signing up for, they still have equal chance at having received a Mafia role PM as anybody else.

So with that in consideration, I find SFS to genuinely come across as lost at times. We (the populace) get so caught up in the ongoing conversation that we can get away with being a bit ambiguous. To someone reading through after and catching up, things may not seem so clear. As Mafia, it would be easy enough to pick out the things you do understand, and build a case around that. The last thing I would imagine a Mafia would do is take time to attempt to clarify most of those ambiguities, which is indeed what he's doing.

It makes it frustrating for you, as you get little substance, and maybe there is something scummy about that. But overall it just doesn't FEEL like Mafia play to me right now. If I were admittedly new, and Mafia, I would be more concerned with fitting/blending in.

Again, there are small things that suggest he's doing just that (the I'm a humor person too! Post), but I am inclined to lean town right now.

[O]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.

Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?

Who's "we"? I haven't been railing on him so hard, I've been responding to the 15+ questions he's had for me.

I don't really find SFS suspicious. I DO still find Pops... well.. strong-headed.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, that strikethrough wasn't an edit per say, I wrote it before you updated your post with bold and just put a strikethrough indicating that I was going to post it but you invalidated what I was going to post.

So it's within the bounds of the rules?  Cause I like that better than "Pre-Post Edit" in some circumstances.  I think it is more clear (as it was in this case as it turns out, 'cause I had correctly interpreted it as sort of analogous to "Ninja'd").

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS, can you please say something of substance while you are still on? Who do you suspect, who do you not suspect, and why? You don't even have to answer those questions specifically, I just want to see something of substance from you. Because so far you have frankly filled your posts with fluff (and more recently defending yourself a bit).

Way past bedtime - but diablo got away from me.

Can someone explain to me why we are railing on SFS so hard?

Who's "we"? I haven't been railing on him so hard, I've been responding to the 15+ questions he's had for me.

I don't really find SFS suspicious. I DO still find Pops... well.. strong-headed.

And the number of the counting shall be three.  Four shall thou not count, nor shall thou count two, excepting as to proceed immediately to three. FIFTEEN IS RIGHT OUT!

Do we lynch liars, or 15 intended to be humorous?

[O]

Do we lynch liars, or 15 intended to be humorous?

I'll let you figure that one out 

[Robz888]

@Robz, to be honest, post #440 applies somewhat here too. But that doesn't really address the fact that regardless if they knew or not what they were signing up for, they still have equal chance at having received a Mafia role PM as anybody else.

So with that in consideration, I find SFS to genuinely come across as lost at times. We (the populace) get so caught up in the ongoing conversation that we can get away with being a bit ambiguous. To someone reading through after and catching up, things may not seem so clear. As Mafia, it would be easy enough to pick out the things you do understand, and build a case around that. The last thing I would imagine a Mafia would do is take time to attempt to clarify most of those ambiguities, which is indeed what he's doing.

It makes it frustrating for you, as you get little substance, and maybe there is something scummy about that. But overall it just doesn't FEEL like Mafia play to me right now. If I were admittedly new, and Mafia, I would be more concerned with fitting/blending in.

Again, there are small things that suggest he's doing just that (the I'm a humor person too! Post), but I am inclined to lean town right now.

Sounds right to me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz, who do you think is Mafia?

[Robz888]

Robz, who do you think is Mafia?

You first.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Did you not read #506 and #519?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

[O]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

[Robz888]

Did you not read #506 and #519?

Well, you didn't name names. Why should I?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.

Now you MUST answer this:  Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)

[O]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.

Now you MUST answer this:  Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)

You use reads, or guess randomly. But you really seem to hate guessing randomly, since you voted for me for suggesting it. So I'd say use reads.

[Robz888]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.

Now you MUST answer this:  Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)

Try to understand. Your answer: "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give me much to go off. You might as well have said nothing. This is why my suspicions tend to land on people who say things like that--because the mafia are the group of people who want to hedge, not say anything incriminating, etc. Especially if they are new players. Do you understand me?

I will tell you that I found Grujah jumping to vote Pops a little odd. And Theorel's post struck me as straight out of the mafia playbook.

Please don't vote for people who irk you. Vote for the mafia.

[Dsell]

I'm not sure that I'm as convinced as some of you that SFS is no longer suspicious (or maybe people are saying he's still suspicious but reading town). Galzria's right, he's no less likely to be mafia because he's new. And if he is that new I'm not sure he would fit our conventions of what a mafia would try to do. Even if he wanted to try to fit in, he may simply not know enough about the game to do it convincingly, so he hasn't tried.

I'm definitely not confident that he is mafia, but I'm not sure why people are already dismissing that possibility. I think if anything, he's hard to read so it's tough to be sure.

Also, I think I am somewhat more suspicious of pops after the exchanges this evening. Not only is his style offputting, but his defense of SFS from nowhere is baffling. He has been really abrupt and unclear, and has offered a bare minimum of reasoning behind his statements. Considering that he is one of the most experienced mafia players among us, I would have expected a lot more. I mean, I guess it would seem like he would go to more effort to look like a helpful townie if he were mafia, but I don't understand his strategies at all so far. It seems like he should be able to be really helpful and he's just not so far.

[Robz888]

I'm not sure that I'm as convinced as some of you that SFS is no longer suspicious (or maybe people are saying he's still suspicious but reading town). Galzria's right, he's no less likely to be mafia because he's new. And if he is that new I'm not sure he would fit our conventions of what a mafia would try to do. Even if he wanted to try to fit in, he may simply not know enough about the game to do it convincingly, so he hasn't tried.

I'm definitely not confident that he is mafia, but I'm not sure why people are already dismissing that possibility. I think if anything, he's hard to read so it's tough to be sure.

Also, I think I am somewhat more suspicious of pops after the exchanges this evening. Not only is his style offputting, but his defense of SFS from nowhere is baffling. He has been really abrupt and unclear, and has offered a bare minimum of reasoning behind his statements. Considering that he is one of the most experienced mafia players among us, I would have expected a lot more. I mean, I guess it would seem like he would go to more effort to look like a helpful townie if he were mafia, but I don't understand his strategies at all so far. It seems like he should be able to be really helpful and he's just not so far.

Crazy thought, but Pops and SFS could be masons.

[Dsell]

Crazy thought, but Pops and SFS could be masons.

Possibly, but literally the only substantive thing I've seen from him so far makes it seem like he's actually suspicious of pops.

Who do I suspect?  I dont know.  I find it weird that Pops JUMPED to my (I think it was "my", but have asked for confirmation) defense with the "He's town, lay off him" comment in #371, but then in #469 ACCUSES me of deleting a post, a notion I have since rebuted (sp?).  (Anyone still wondering about my commitment to the notion of not deleting a post should be apparent by my three tries (at #322, 324, and 326) to unvote correctly in bold).  Pops was also the first responder (at#64) to my inquiry at potentially playing in the game.  In that response, he claimed "I was one of his favorite posters on f.DS".  Maybe he thought a newb would be easy to manipulate if he caught a Mafia role?

[Robz888]

Crazy thought, but Pops and SFS could be masons.

Possibly, but literally the only substantive thing I've seen from him so far makes it seem like he's actually suspicious of pops.

Who do I suspect?  I dont know.  I find it weird that Pops JUMPED to my (I think it was "my", but have asked for confirmation) defense with the "He's town, lay off him" comment in #371, but then in #469 ACCUSES me of deleting a post, a notion I have since rebuted (sp?).  (Anyone still wondering about my commitment to the notion of not deleting a post should be apparent by my three tries (at #322, 324, and 326) to unvote correctly in bold).  Pops was also the first responder (at#64) to my inquiry at potentially playing in the game.  In that response, he claimed "I was one of his favorite posters on f.DS".  Maybe he thought a newb would be easy to manipulate if he caught a Mafia role?

Well, you're right. Said it before I thought it through.

[Galzria]

@Robz, the Mason thought occurred to me, but it would be WAY more beneficial to the town to keep it under wraps. The last thing we need is to be seeing "pairs", especially as we aren't sure Masons are in the game. So it would make sense to tip that hand only in the event of a likely lynch. There is no effective counter claim, but paints night time targets.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

... Even if he wanted to try to fit in, he may simply not know enough about the game to do it convincingly, so he hasn't tried.

Trust me, if I need to fit in, I can.  But my epiphany this afternoon (more like a DUH!) was "the mafia already know I'm not mafia, and I can't stop them from killing me, so I can't worry about them.  I need to make sure that the town knows I'm town."  Sometimes I'm a little slow.

Epiphany #2 - My always telling the truth in this game will confound people.
Epiphany #3 - If I am to be good at this game, I need to be able to leave my RL self out of it.  This is discouraging, as I don't have to rehearse to be myself.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Which leads me to Epiphany #4:  I'm going to suck at this game.  Oh well.

I'm going to bed.  The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.

Tricksy hobbitses.

[Galzria]

By the way, I am greatly looking forward to some posts by Tables, and Green Opal who have COMPLETELY dropped off the radar (moreso even than Glooble and Theoral). We're basically playing 4-men (or women) down today, and there is a better than average odds that one of the four is Mafia. Even greater that they are Mafia/Role. Their input and thoughts are very much wanted and needed.

[Dsell]

@Galz, I am looking forward to the same, but it's inevitable that we will not all be online and active at the same time. People are in different time zones, have different schedules, jobs, etc. I know I really don't need to tell you any of this but I don't want to see others get super suspicious of those who haven't posted much yet because they haven't been able.

[Robz888]

Which leads me to Epiphany #4:  I'm going to suck at this game.  Oh well.

I'm going to bed.  The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.

Tricksy hobbitses.

If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!

[Galzria]

@Galz, I am looking forward to the same, but it's inevitable that we will not all be online and active at the same time. People are in different time zones, have different schedules, jobs, etc. I know I really don't need to tell you any of this but I don't want to see others get super suspicious of those who haven't posted much yet because they haven't been able.

Oh I don't mean that I was/am suspicious of any of those 4. Not outright anyway. Just that their voices will be greatly appreciated when they join in since it's highly likely that at least one got a non-VT PM.

[Dsell]

Oh I don't mean that I was/am suspicious of any of those 4. Not outright anyway. Just that their voices will be greatly appreciated when they join in since it's highly likely that at least one got a non-VT PM.

I got what you were saying but I don't want others to misinterpret what you said as suspicion.

[Dsell]

Oh I don't mean that I was/am suspicious of any of those 4. Not outright anyway. Just that their voices will be greatly appreciated when they join in since it's highly likely that at least one got a non-VT PM.

I got what you were saying but I don't want others to misinterpret what you said as suspicion.

Or at least, unduly strong suspicion.

[Galzria]

And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end?

[Galzria]

And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end?

O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.

[Galzria]

And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end?

O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.

In next game*

[O]

http://xkcd.com/545/

[Galzria]

http://xkcd.com/545/

[Green Opal]

Currently rereading the thread, though I'm only back to where I was yesterday at the moment. I'm at work, so it's spotty as to how long I can be here though.

[Glooble]

Thought I might have time to get in a substantive reply before work, but just catching up on the six pages posted since I went to bed has made me almost miss the bus. Mostly posting this as a placeholder for when I get home, and to let you guys know I'm trying.

[Grujah]

@Galz -
Tables is not off the radar.
I still find his "belif" in Axxle weird, and Axxle's jumpyness as well, as I said, as I said in post #330, like they "share a dirty little secret" and Axxle getting mad for them speaking about it. He hasn't posted since so no much to go on.

Though they might just as well be Masons.


Anyone else feel like SFS's voting Robs was a bit too much trying to avoid answering the question? And than later he still failed to give any input about anyone being suspicious for one or other action or anything.
Ok, not necesarily scummy (I guess scum would accuse somebody, even if just to get the heat off). He just lack an opinion on anyone of anysort, which is not really good.

[theorel]

At least overnight posting was a little more reasonable than afternoon posting.

So, I didn't notice the second article from Axxle about the RVS.  I read the first article (on arguments), and saw it allude to future articles, but I didn't see where that future article was (if it was even from the same person).  It would be nice to have a feel for what someone who wanted to follow those articles would do, but regardless I'll make some comments based on this thread.

It seems to me from a purely practical perspective that if bandwagons are helpful to the town, it's because they can ferret out mafia.  How would they do this?
1: Mafia want to increase suspicion of non-mafia.  This means that they will trumpet the bad reasoning inherent to a bandwagon.
2: Mafia want to be in the middle of the pack of voters, so as to not stand out (presumably).  A bandwagon gives them opportunity to do that.

So, if we stop a bandwagon prematurely (say at 5 or 6 people) it stands to reason that 1-2 of those people is likely mafia (largely dependent on how many Mafia we have in the game).  For future reference (in order to stop excessive caveats) I'm going to assume we have 3 mafia for the course of day 1.  If we have more we have more power roles, better information probable day 2, if we have fewer, we have less power roles, and we're probably gonna be killing a lot of town.  Anyways, if we have 1 mafia in 5 players, it's actually no better probability of hitting one of 3 mafia in 15 players.  However, for any townies on the bandwagon, you've got 1 in 4 if it's true that the mafia are in the bandwagon.  (assuming uniform random choice, which you might be able to improve upon with your 'reads').

Alright, so that's the theoretical position I'm starting from, you may disagree that's fine...So, I'm going to look at the 5 people who voted for Pops before the bandwagon petered out and Galz jumped ship. (I think these are in order of voting, would appreciate correction if I'm wrong)
1. Insomniac: Pops voted for him, he voted back.  Pops thinks he was being overly defensive (Mafia tell, Pops says).  He was arguably even more defensive then, by returning the vote after supposedly getting info out of...( SFS was it?)  Suspicion: Medium

2. O: he plays a random, erratic game.  He voted for Pops early, but he's also in second position, the most suspicious of positions.  Suspicion: lower than Insomniac.

3. Galzria: He pushed the pressure trying to get an answer, did not feel convinced a bit later, and then finally jumped ship, meaning to me that either he's town, or getting out while the getting's good.  Suspicion: low

4. Grujah: I'll be honest, I get Grujah and DSell mixed up.  Their avatars look similar to me for whatever reason.  I've got no decent read on Grujah, I think he's new?  Maybe he's bandwagoning because of that.  He claims to be impressionable, which is bad for town (IMO).  So, Grujah, if you're Town - be Skeptical.  Don't be persuaded by others' arguments, make your own.  Mafia want to persuade you, town want information.  Suspicion: Medium (a little above Insomniac)

5. Axxle: He votes and unvotes and revotes.  I think it's clear that Pops cares little for the pressure he's under.  He's also one of the only 2 people to really interact with me since I started posting, and he was suspicious then unsuspicious.  So, he's hedging, or changing his mind a lot, but this also suggests he's playing somewhat transparently.  If he is mafia, I think he's the second mafia to vote for Pops. So, like the rollercoaster of his own play so are my feelings about him.  Suspicion: Highest of the 5, though not far above Grujah.

Note: everyone should keep in mind that we might have a witch, I use "Mafia", but could replace with "anti-town".  In fact, I find it much more likely that mafia + witch have voted for Pops, then that both Mafia have.

So, to clarify suspicion order (individually) is: Axxle, Grujah, Insomniac, O, Galzria.  If Axxle's mafia, I think one of the other 4 is, which increases the odds on the other 4.  Unfortunately it increases it most for O and Insomniac, if they're mafia (no-change if it's mafia+witch).  I guess that leaves Axxle on top, so that's where I'll vote, until further notice.

Vote: Axxle

Oh, one more thing, then I'll be quiet for a while again (since I have to y'know...work).
The analysis about numerics in whether we're better off lynching no-lynching is thrown completely off by existence of Militia and Witch (and Woodcutter).  If we lynch with one night-kill we maintain odd numbers which is good.  If we lynch with 2 night-kills we go into even number land which is bad (assuming mafia isn't hit).  OTOH: Mafia wants to kill Witch (and Witch mafia), so that's not quite as bad.  I just wanted to throw that out there, since extra night-kills totally throw off the better to lynch or not calculations.  I still think lynching day-1 is preferable because it gives us more information.  I also think that we should push close to a couple lynches before the end of the day ideally.  So, in my view any hammer on an early wagon is a very scummy move.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people staggered up out of the Cellar and blinked in the harsh sunlight.  theorel wondered aloud what they should do from here.  Someone muttered something about a "team-building exercise" but was quickly silenced by a chorus of angry glares, three dismissive gestures, and a mild smack to the back of the head. Ultimately, they agreed to split up and look for the portcullis key, perhaps more so to be doing something then just standing around getting angry at each other.

Fifteen people thus made their way separately throughout the Estate grounds.  The Mafia surely would not kill again so brazenly during this day... but could they ferret out one of the killers among them before nightfall?

Vote Count 1-5

Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (4) - Insomniac, O, Grujah, Axxle
SwitchedFromStarcraft (1) - jotheonah
Axxle (1) - theorel

Not Voting {7} - Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Dsell, Green Opal, Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Players comfortable with a discussion quicktopic (12) - Dsell, O, Galzria, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac, jotheonah, Glooble, Green Opal, Axxle, Grujah, Robz888, theorel

[jotheonah]

Good morning 5 new pages. This game has pretty much replaced coffee as the thing that wakes me up in the morning. SFS is less suspicious to me in some ways - for instance, I now see that he is indeed funny, in a wry way. I appreciate it, actually. But more suspicious in others - he's said some incongruous things. Ultimately though, one tell convinces me for the moment to read him town. I don't want to say the tell, because then everyone who is mafia can adjust for it.

Unvote

Another of suspects from that first re-read is Captain_Frisk. He's also a master of flying under the radar, of information without analysis. Even Robz has failed to spot the blah factor to all his posts.

CF, who do you think is mafia and why?

[Galzria]

@Galz -
Tables is not off the radar.
I still find his "belif" in Axxle weird, and Axxle's jumpyness as well, as I said, as I said in post #330, like they "share a dirty little secret" and Axxle getting mad for them speaking about it. He hasn't posted since so no much to go on.

Though they might just as well be Masons.


Anyone else feel like SFS's voting Robs was a bit too much trying to avoid answering the question? And than later he still failed to give any input about anyone being suspicious for one or other action or anything.
Ok, not necesarily scummy (I guess scum would accuse somebody, even if just to get the heat off). He just lack an opinion on anyone of anysort, which is not really good.

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't clear with my statement last night. When I said those 4 (and Green/Tables in particular), I meant that when Volt had posted the latest vote tally, I went "oh yeah! There are still more people in the game!" Their contributions, while present, had come so early and were so short, that they themselves had slipped my conscience brain as being in the village.

Given there is a high likelihood that of 4 people, there is at least 1 non-vanilla town PM, their voices will be very valuable to hear - Both if they come from a Mafia perspective, or a Role perspective.

[Galzria]

Those 4 *were off my radar* - clarification to above.

[Green Opal]

POST IS BEING WRITTEN AFTER #558, AND WILL NOT BE RESPONDING TO ANYTHING BEYOND THAT

Though it looks like things have calmed down somewhat.
So the current resounding logic is that at least one of the people who was voting for pops when he was on 5 is mafia? Given the basis assumption that he's actually town. Pops did eventually go into more detail of his absolutist posting, but 4 votes are still there and Galzria's stating he's not at all convinced. Aside from his 'gut' town read of SFS is there anything making people suspicious? I ask because I'm in what I think is the same boat of feeling somewhat put off by his stifling responses, but outside of those couple of posts he's seemed reasonable.
As for who I am suspicious of:
Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Jonah (sorry, I'm going to use this shortening in the hopes that it's translating through as "J to the onah"): The general vibe I've gotten from you has been "I'm town, honest, but I'm going to play like I'm really mafia for teh lulz". Identifying areas that should be making people suspicious of you for things like the phrasing 'we townies' just comes off as a little odd to me.

As I mentioned earlier I'm in general in favour of the day not stretching out forever and I'm not sure how my access to the game will be for the rest of the (IRL) day, so for now Vote: Jotheonah

[Captain_Frisk]

Another of suspects from that first re-read is Captain_Frisk. He's also a master of flying under the radar, of information without analysis. Even Robz has failed to spot the blah factor to all his posts.

CF, who do you think is mafia and why?

First - thank you for crediting me with master level play.

Second, late afternoon / early evening I got slammed with work - and the thread got ahead of me - I kindof watched it scroll bye and got a kick out of the SFS shennanigans, and then decided to decompress with Diablo 3 instead of deep study of 22 pages of text.  I look to have a bad day in front of me - so I'm probably not going to do it this AM either - at least until lunchtime.

At this point I don't have truly strong suspicions such that make any candidate significantly stronger than another.  I could probably identify a reason for just about everyone here - from either lurking, to erratic posting, then that would be hedging.

I'm acutely aware that any any "analysis" done by town at this stage is done without much information.  I'm not going to talk about MIII - but I think that Mafia I and II both demonstrate that the town can work itself up into a tizzy chasing scummy behavior where there is none.  I especially enjoyed M1 - where the the mafia must have just been rolling on the floor laughing at having 2 town members at L-1 vote.

[Galzria]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

[Galzria]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

Haha, I was wondering who would catch my posting times as, like, 24 hours. I live West Coast, and spend most the day at work, but as a Poli Sci journalist, election cycles are NUTS. 24-hour coverage basically demands you to be on your toes at all times. Still, there is down time between events, so it's easy to stay current here. It's just a bunch more words, but it's relaxing in a way. It's why I do most of my posting from my mobile instead of a PC though.

Sleep? Between Midnight and 4:00 am on a good day. The consolation is that I get a lot of down time between major election cycles.

[popsofctown]

SFS, I never accused you of deleting a post, I meant preview deletion.
SFS you down with a discussion QT?

Jothenoah is slightly scummy but not enough to get excited, for me at this point. 

Insomniac is still suspicious to me.  Grujah's voting is pretty scummy on paper.

[jotheonah]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

Well, I said "I'm not convinced anyone on that bandwagon is scum ATM (at the moment). Maybe Grujah." You're rather brusquely translating that as a pops-esque "Nope. They're all definitely town." A more accurate translation is "At this moment, all of the people voting for pops seem to be voting for pops for sensible reasons that read town. Except Grujah." So that doesn't in any way imply I think pops is town, either. So at MOST I "cleared" 4 people. But really I just said, 4 people aren't high on my personal scum radar at this point in time.

Instead, I'm focusing my attention on the people who aren't drawing massive amounts of attention with wierd play. I made a case for SFS to draw him out, got a lot more information about him, and then rethought my read. When I logged on, SFS was FAR from fizzled out. Robz was still suspicious of him, as was Dsell, I think others.  But even when I posted my "I have been scumhunting and here's who I accuse" post, I did say I had multiple suspects. I thought it would be more instructive to air them one at a time then all at once and muddle things up. So when I had gotten some info from SFS, I moved on to CF.

Are we satisfied? How else can I be of assistance?

[jotheonah]

Clearing people for the whole group = bad, blinding mafia play.
(tentatively) Clearing people for my own personal scumhunt = necessary for maintaining sanity/productivity

[Galzria]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

Oh, and thank you for chiming in on that. I'm interested in hearing others thoughts on his actions to date.

[Tables]

Oh man, I wake up and find there's about 15 pages. I'm not going to be able to keep up my normal rate of note taking in this game .

Also as a reminder to everyone, I'm in a different time zone to all of you and generally will only be online 1-2 times per day. So don't jump down my throat for being inactive.

Regarding my position on Axxle: It was extremely early in the game, and no discussion was taking place (that was useful, at least). I had very little reason to suspect anyone, but the first thing Axxle did was post an extremely useful (to town) article. As scum, he had little reason to do so, so it seemed like a good town play. What I've read so far (up to page 10) also suggests him to be town. But at the time, I was slightly more confident in him than anyone else and so wanted to make the controversial statement to kickstart discussion.

As for everything else, expect a longish post in maybe an hour?

[popsofctown]

Welcome
http://xkcd.com/327/

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS but you followed it up with this post in the very same page, discouraging our joking demeanor:

 

Vote: Quicktopic

@O: Puppies of large dogs are cute. I've not encountered puppies of yappy-type dogs enough times to form an opinion on them.
I'm fine with smart children, but there are a lot of obnoxious, loud, undisciplined children that I prefer to stay clear of me.
I think this is where I say: God Bless America.

UNVOTE
Vote: Axxle (for the above post)

@ALL: Can we get more focused on gleaning actionable information?  This is going to be incredibly unwieldy 6 weeks from now at the end of Day 3, when there could still be as many as 12 people in the game.

I didn't think this was an attempt at humor, I thought it was just goobledeygook.  Didnt realize it was actually a requested response from another player, which has since been clarified by Axxle.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Is the reversal of a question bad etiquette, or are you just ducking?

Given that you were asked first and never answered..

I answered to the best of my abilities in 506 and 519.

Now you MUST answer this:  Tell me why you think "How the hell would I know?  It's day one and I've never played the silly game.  I'm still building some sort of system by which to measure/decipher/track the game state, so I've not yet had the luxury of inferences." in 519 is my having "never answered".

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (because now I'm irked)

Try to understand. Your answer: "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give me much to go off. You might as well have said nothing. This is why my suspicions tend to land on people who say things like that--because the mafia are the group of people who want to hedge, not say anything incriminating, etc. Especially if they are new players. Do you understand me?

I will tell you that I found Grujah jumping to vote Pops a little odd. And Theorel's post struck me as straight out of the mafia playbook.

Please don't vote for people who irk you. Vote for the mafia.

I do understand that "I suspect no one, I don't know anything," doesn't give you much to go off of.  I disagree that it accomplished the same thing for you as if I had said nothing, because saying nothing is non-responsive.  I'm going to treat non-responsive as suspicious, so I'm tracking all my requests for information.  I've already said I intend to be fully accountable for what I say and I stand by that.  My only two luxuries in this game are a) I don't have to worry about saying anything incriminating, because I'm town, and b) I'm not gonna get worked up about the outcome, because it's my first game.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Which leads me to Epiphany #4:  I'm going to suck at this game.  Oh well.

I'm going to bed.  The vote for Robz stands, because removing it now might imply (see #534) that I think he is NOT mafia, and I don't know that he is not.

Tricksy hobbitses.

If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!

Oops, I guess I've crossed that line again.  I'm answering posts in order while catching up.  That might be a less than optimal method.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And I have to chuckle at 22 pages in ~18 hours. It's NUTS to me how adding just a handful more players can add up the post total, even when some are inactive. Anybody care to take bets on # pages at game end?

O can compile our guesses with our names, mod them to the # of players, and use that as his "seconds" marker to determine who his random vote will be on. Closest number wins.

O has disavowed his desire to vote randomly, as he has made clear in his responses to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

1 - Thanks for saying what I thought was too reactionary.
2 - Do you ever sleep?

Oh, and thank you for chiming in on that. I'm interested in hearing others thoughts on his actions to date.

My feelings were that he accused me of empty posting - which I personally didn't find to be true - some of the silliness during the troll voting and quote breaking being a notable exception. 

Then I went back and looked at his posts, and saw what I considered to be lots of prodding - but not a lot of release of information.  He prodded you Galzria to vocalize your scum hunting strategy.  He prodded SFS into a multi page trainwreck, and then he woke up and prodded me.  He hasn't accused me - is just asking me to lay out my claims on who should be mafia - trying to get information out of me without providing any of his own, other than a mild suspicion - released 1 name at a time.  Why should I provide more?

I can't decide if this is legitimate scum hunting - or if this is mafia trying to rile up the town without having to get his feet wet with a vote.

He's far from the only one to be taking this approach - other vocal players have pulled the same thing: claiming to have "gathered information" without sharing what that information is.
 

Axxle, I'm still suspicious of how jumpy you are, but I was just fishing for responses from the other active members. I'm happy with what I got.

Suspicions: Axxle, slightly. None others atm.

I agree. Although I feel like I'm gaining useful information (and I don't always think that in Round 1).

Right now, I'm feeling some nervousness about DSell.  He's hanging around the middle post count wise, and his major contributions to date have been:

1. Jumping on pops for his terse play yesterday.
2. Railing on SFS - which reads like "picking on noob and hoping he cracks"  Maybe this is good play, but it seemed to go on a little further than was strictly necessary.

While I don't like pops' play, I'm putting him in the "O" camp for now... as in too crazy to get a meaningful read - so I saw DSell as just potentially trying to rile up the town.

Vote: DSell

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, I never accused you of deleting a post, I meant preview deletion.
SFS you down with a discussion QT?

Jothenoah is slightly scummy but not enough to get excited, for me at this point. 

Insomniac is still suspicious to me.  Grujah's voting is pretty scummy on paper.

VOLTGLOSS - I AM OK WITH A DISCUSSION THREAD, OR QT, OR WHATEVER THE PROPER TERMINOLOGY IS.

[Insomniac]

So I logged off of Dominion Strategy (except to update that we needed a replacement for M3) and this was at 12 pages. Its at 24. Having just now caught up I see no reason to unvote for pops. His posts are always terse, never quoting what he intends to, and still doesn't explain reasoning.

For now my vote will stay on pops.

[Galzria]

So I logged off of Dominion Strategy (except to update that we needed a replacement for M3) and this was at 12 pages. Its at 24. Having just now caught up I see no reason to unvote for pops. His posts are always terse, never quoting what he intends to, and still doesn't explain reasoning.

For now my vote will stay on pops.

I'm fine with that. 4 votes hardly concerns me for someone, and I pretty much agree with what you said. I'm just making sure I explore other options and don't hammer down on one player (especially given how quickly he hit 5 votes).

Would you mind providing your thoughts on Jotheonah? Either in relation to my post, or from your own perspective?

[jotheonah]

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

[jotheonah]

Galz, I wonder how many games we have to play together before you accept that this is how I play town? Here's hoping it doesn't get you lynched this time.

[Insomniac]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

Jotheonah never really stood out to me. He made some bad jokes at the beginning but I blame myself partially for talking about how I would be hesitant to vote right away for someone who said that. 24 Pages later I feel we have enough information that I don't hold that true anymore.

"We Townies" well everyone says that, I was very very guilty of that late in M2, and well I was telling the truth.

Post 424 is probably true to an extent, I mean with a mafia of size FOUR. They can probably afford to have one pseudo lurker. But I dont think they're all there and I don't think we need to waste our time there for day 1 as far as I'm concerned. Voting for SFS seems wierd he's not much of a psuedo lurker. I voted for SFS to draw him out cuz I had seen him reading this thread back when it was a reasonable thing to just read the entire thread . So this point raises a bit of concern for me but not that much.

I don't yet know what to make of 433. It seems like he might be hiding one or more of his partners there if he's mafia, or he could just be speaking honestly.

THIS POST

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.

I still suspect pops more, I mean we're 24 pages deep and he still hasn't given a good reason to suspect me, I don't find his posts at all helpful (see previous post). I hate to say it pops but if you have conviction in voting for me, give people a reason to vote for me.

[Galzria]

Galz, I wonder how many games we have to play together before you accept that this is how I play town? Here's hoping it doesn't get you lynched this time.

Empty threats mean nothing to me.

[Tables]

Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.

...but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...

Actually, I use Google Docs. Can be accessed from anywhere and post game, it can be shared. But I digress.

Vote: Okay with quicktopic

Alright, I think I'm caught up for the day, although I only have about 10-15 minutes, so not enough time to post everything I want to say. Bleh.

Firstly: O and Galzria: Do you two realise your grandstanding wasted about half a day's discussion while we could have been having serious scumhunting? There were people trying to bring discussion back in line, but you two continued to defy them and waste time. I'm not suspicious, but I want you two (especially O) to start playing the game you signed up for.

With that out of the way, not much happened in the first 15 or so pages, which was seriously disappointing. Perhaps the most interesting thing was the Pops bandwagon, which seemed to build up worryingly quickly. My notes tell me O started it, Galzria joined soon after, then Grujah and then Axxle followed. O and Galzria... bleh. I don't want to comment on them. Axxle defended his stance well, Grujah... didn't. I'm not too sure what to make of this bandwagon yet, but when we have a little more information, it'll definitely be worth looking at.

Asides from that, the person who stuck out to me most was Jonah. Like Galzria in II, his posts have a distinct 'The mafia wants to do this but as town, X' feel to them - look at e.g. post 351 and his posts just before that to get an idea of it. Then when Grujah called him out on it in post 354, Jonah stopped doing it altogether after making a very tweed 'oh, well noticed, we need to spot things like that' post. The kind of post mafia makes when they've been caught in the act. Now, I was slightly bummed to get to page 23 and find other people were already voting Jonah, since it might look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but I've laid out evidence, and he's still my prime suspect. I'll post more later when I get the chance, but for now:

Vote: Jtotheonah

[jotheonah]

Actually, I was just rereading, and there were a few things J said that stood out:

"I'm a Mafia!" Joke, which we all agreed was bad play, got our attention to wander.

"We, Townies" as pointed out, comes across as "I'm a townie, really I am!"

Post #424, he says we shouldn't be looking for Mafia in the vocal crowd, but among the pseudo-lurkers. He also got on SFS early, and kept pushing to see what he could get. This morning, when he logged on to find it sizzled out, he moved on to C.F.

Post #433, he states he believes there are no Mafia voting for Pops. If Pops were Mafia, and had 5 townies voting for him, why wouldn't J vote? If J believes Pops is town as well, he's just cleared SIX people. This seems VERY VERY off to me. Not only from a "how would he know" standpoint, but also a "let's all be friends! Hey guyz, look over here!" standpoint.

I'm still very hesitant about Pops, especially in light of J's post #433, but for now I'll join in saying VOTE: JOTHEONAH

Jotheonah never really stood out to me. He made some bad jokes at the beginning but I blame myself partially for talking about how I would be hesitant to vote right away for someone who said that. 24 Pages later I feel we have enough information that I don't hold that true anymore.

"We Townies" well everyone says that, I was very very guilty of that late in M2, and well I was telling the truth.

Post 424 is probably true to an extent, I mean with a mafia of size FOUR. They can probably afford to have one pseudo lurker. But I dont think they're all there and I don't think we need to waste our time there for day 1 as far as I'm concerned. Voting for SFS seems wierd he's not much of a psuedo lurker. I voted for SFS to draw him out cuz I had seen him reading this thread back when it was a reasonable thing to just read the entire thread . So this point raises a bit of concern for me but not that much.

I don't yet know what to make of 433. It seems like he might be hiding one or more of his partners there if he's mafia, or he could just be speaking honestly.

THIS POST

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.

I still suspect pops more, I mean we're 24 pages deep and he still hasn't given a good reason to suspect me, I don't find his posts at all helpful (see previous post). I hate to say it pops but if you have conviction in voting for me, give people a reason to vote for me.

I've put down my vote exactly once.

[Captain_Frisk]

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

By that argument - refusing to answer your question is also pro town.  I can see your point - but I don't see why you should be expecting everyone to lift up their skirts for you to peak underneath while you keep all of your clothes on. 

[jotheonah]

Tables did something smart in M-II: He made an excel sheet that he could keep short thoughts for each person on, with the respective post numbers to refer back to. Then you don't have to reread everything 1000 times later on.

...but you have to make an excel spreadsheet and take detailed notes on the postings of 15 players...

Actually, I use Google Docs. Can be accessed from anywhere and post game, it can be shared. But I digress.

Vote: Okay with quicktopic

Alright, I think I'm caught up for the day, although I only have about 10-15 minutes, so not enough time to post everything I want to say. Bleh.

Firstly: O and Galzria: Do you two realise your grandstanding wasted about half a day's discussion while we could have been having serious scumhunting? There were people trying to bring discussion back in line, but you two continued to defy them and waste time. I'm not suspicious, but I want you two (especially O) to start playing the game you signed up for.

With that out of the way, not much happened in the first 15 or so pages, which was seriously disappointing. Perhaps the most interesting thing was the Pops bandwagon, which seemed to build up worryingly quickly. My notes tell me O started it, Galzria joined soon after, then Grujah and then Axxle followed. O and Galzria... bleh. I don't want to comment on them. Axxle defended his stance well, Grujah... didn't. I'm not too sure what to make of this bandwagon yet, but when we have a little more information, it'll definitely be worth looking at.

Asides from that, the person who stuck out to me most was Jonah. Like Galzria in II, his posts have a distinct 'The mafia wants to do this but as town, X' feel to them - look at e.g. post 351 and his posts just before that to get an idea of it. Then when Grujah called him out on it in post 354, Jonah stopped doing it altogether after making a very tweed 'oh, well noticed, we need to spot things like that' post. The kind of post mafia makes when they've been caught in the act. Now, I was slightly bummed to get to page 23 and find other people were already voting Jonah, since it might look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but I've laid out evidence, and he's still my prime suspect. I'll post more later when I get the chance, but for now:

Vote: Jtotheonah

I'm a little confused by your reasoning? I wrote a "here's what we should be doing" post because Galz requested it specifically. And then I moved on to scumhunting because that's the next step in this game. What is it that I've "stopped doing entirely" and why have I supposedly stopped doing it?

[Tables]

Posting reasoning based on what the mafia/town wants to do. Just like that post says. And then Gurjah called out your posts often using 'we town' like phrases, and you stopped.

[jotheonah]

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

By that argument - refusing to answer your question is also pro town.  I can see your point - but I don't see why you should be expecting everyone to lift up their skirts for you to peak underneath while you keep all of your clothes on.

Everyone has to decide for theirself the balance between what they reveal about their process and when. My decision has led to some fingers pointing my way. But it has also helped me to scumhunt. For a townie, that seems like a reasonable trade-off. However, I will point out that I have not yet refused to answer a question.

[jotheonah]

Posting reasoning based on what the mafia/town wants to do. Just like that post says. And then Gurjah called out your posts often using 'we town' like phrases, and you stopped.

Can you point to a place where I specifically avoided a "we town" construction? Cause I would say that I just haven't happened to use one since then.

[Galzria]

@ Tables:

Yes, there was some unnecessary banter in there, but I came out of the gates strong and on topic. O doesn't particularly care for my style of play because it goes against everything "natural" to him. I don't particularly like his style because I find it disruptive and unnecessary while being largely unhelpful. I think both of us were cooling it a bit after the semi,fallout in M-III. I don't find his play here nearly as bad, and I hope he doesn't think me quite as terrible either.

So yes, there was some "mood lightening" posts in there. I still think there was good information to be gained throughout it though, that IS relevant to scum hunting. Moreso, I really did laugh out loud from someone who had made... 5? 6? Posts calling me out for not scum hunting enough. Just hillarious. However, that has no impact on my suspicions towards you or anybody else. Just have me a chuckle is all.

[Captain_Frisk]

Posting reasoning based on what the mafia/town wants to do. Just like that post says. And then Gurjah called out your posts often using 'we town' like phrases, and you stopped.

Can you point to a place where I specifically avoided a "we town" construction? Cause I would say that I just haven't happened to use one since then.

Is using things like "We town" really informative?  It seems that town would be likely to use it naturally, and mafia would use it intentionally.  I take it as a going in assumption that everyone in the group has claimed town.

[Voltgloss]

All players have now voted in favor of a Discussion Quicktopic.  The topic has been created and any spectators (and deceased non-Mafia players) who wish to join should please PM me requesting the link.  Thanks.

I will update the opening post accordingly. 

[Robz888]

Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.

[Grujah]

What bothers me about SFS is that he still didn't really post anything useful, suspecting anyone or giving any info whatsoever.

[theorel]

Reread all of 3 individuals' posts in the thread (Axxle, Grujah, and Insomniac).  After rereading, Grujah looks scummier than Axxle.  Insomniac looks pretty townie.  Which means pops looks scummier.  O and Galz are probably about even with Axxle in my mind.

Starting up a new wagon for jotheonah, eh?  hmm...I'll have to reread him, but at this point I think he's more likely town.  Especially because, isn't this the second time he's started accruing votes?  Or was it only suspicion prior?

So, Robz: any change in your opinion on me?

Nobody really has any comments on the Pops voters?  I know there have been some general dismissive votes, and a few claims of suspicion on Grujah, but I'd like to hear more from others, such as: Green Opal (not that you'll get to read this any time soon...) but you said something positive-seeming towards the idea that a scum is among the pops voters, before shifting to jotheonah.

P.S. Thanks to everyone who capitalizes Theorel, it looks so weird when I see my screen name uncapitalized.

[theorel]

oh, yeah...so, I obviously changed my mind, but forgot to change my vote.
Unvote
Vote: Grujah

[Galzria]

@Theorel:

I believe all 5 of us are fair game, as our votes did pile on quickly. If there is anything in particular you would like me to address, please ask, otherwise I don't wish to get into a debate about innocence, since everybody can and will argue from this position. Me saying "but I'm town!" Doesn't help - So direct me to help you! Otherwise I stand by my reasonings to date.

On the others:

Grujah - I didn't like him bandwagon'ing just for the sake of bandwagoning. But it's do blatantly anti-mafia to do so... I just don't know. His posts give some substance, but not much, and his self proclaimed impressionable nature is alarming. Watching, but nothing serious yet.

O - I admit, I don't know if I could tell Mafia O from Town O. It's good for him if he's Mafia, and probably bad for us if he's town, though not necessarily. It's certainly bad for ME, but I'm working on it.

Insomniac - He's appeared honest, but perhaps too much so. Reminds me of me in M-II. Not convinced of innocence, but at my own peril, leaning town.

Axxle - I've been here this game a few times. He was jumpy earlier about being called out, left, and when he came back, was much more mellow. Still suspect him, watching closely.

On Pops - Still strongly suspect, more than the others, for his very erratic, stubborn, unhelpful play. But I don't trust bandwagons, so am backing off for now.

On Jotheonah - I don't believe he ever had anything concrete against him in the past, but he was jumpy at suspicions of him early on. His response to me of "you came after me last time, and got yourself lynched. That worked out well for you didn't it?" Seems like a huge redirect and empty threat to put me off his case.

Anything else I can help you with?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.

(Emphasis mine)
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia.  Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused".  Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat".  I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes.  (There I go again).  You are welcome to vote for me at any time.

I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you.  My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information.  I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons)  I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Damn, I hate forgetting:

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Damn, I hate forgetting:

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ

And quoting here to re-apply the notion that I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop, to see where it leads us.

[jotheonah]

THIS POST

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.

I have put down my vote once (on SFS) and I've expressed suspicions of exactly 2 people. (2 1/2 if you count *cough*Axxle*cough*). So this is untrue even in spirit. I have a hard time believing that anyone reading my posts at all, let alone closely enough to be confident making a post against me, could make this drastic a mistake. Insomniac, I'd appreciate an explanation.

[jotheonah]

I meant to write at the beginning of that post:

Insomniac has now posted a blatant falsehood, something that usually warrants investigation in the game of mafia.

[Grujah]

Damn, I hate forgetting:

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ

And quoting here to re-apply the notion that I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop, to see where it leads us.

Is this you trying to get into townie role by copying Galziria's reasoning? 

[Insomniac]

THIS POST

@CF

If we all explain every bit of our thought process, we're basically giving the mafia a tutorial on how not to arouse our suspicions. This is a lesson from MII, I think. Some aloofness actually IS pro-town. You're exactly right that I'm prodding. This is how I scumhunt. When I'm good and ready to put my "This is my vote for the day" vote down, it will be accompanied with a fairly detailed case and a plea for other votes to join mine. I am not there yet, and I may not get there today. Plenty of time.

THIS ONE bothers me. You've already put your vote down a million times.

I have put down my vote once (on SFS) and I've expressed suspicions of exactly 2 people. (2 1/2 if you count *cough*Axxle*cough*). So this is untrue even in spirit. I have a hard time believing that anyone reading my posts at all, let alone closely enough to be confident making a post against me, could make this drastic a mistake. Insomniac, I'd appreciate an explanation.

This is true, I swore I remember seeing you vote twice, but its probably just all the people that voted for you. Mistakes happen, not gonna be able to defend myself if you try and rally people onto me for that specific fact.

BUT to address a pressing question your now causing me to have. Why are you SO DEFENSIVE about people suspecting you, you're often posting multiple times when ever someone suspects you, I got what THREE? You weren't this defensive in M2 when people suspected you, what gives?

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people set out ostensibly to search the Estate on their own.

Fifteen minutes later, they sheepishly found each other all gathered back in the main Throne Room.  Apparently none actually wanted to be exploring on their own, and each hoped the others would do so instead.

After an awkward silence, Grujah sighed and suggested that the group split up into five small groups of three.  SFS nodded, adding that one Mafioso wouldn't dare act alone with two Townies present - and theorel reasoned that two Mafiosi wouldn't risk killing their Townie for fear of outing themselves.  Relieved to come to a consensus on something, the fifteen asked O to devise a random grouping method.  The method chosen:  drawing lots.

Galzria considered his short straw.  He looked up to see someone approaching him with the same-length straw. 

It was popsofctown.  Who had choice words:

http://www.hark.com/clips/ckkslysnfx-its-you-and-me-honeybunch

Vote Count 1-6

Insomniac (1) - popsofctown
Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (4) - Insomniac, O, Grujah, Axxle
Grujah (1) - theorel
jotheonah (3) - Green Opal, Galzria, Tables
Dsell (1) - Captain_Frisk

Not Voting {4} - Robz888, Glooble, Dsell, jotheonah

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[jotheonah]

I was MORE defensive in MIII, but we're not supposed to be talking about that.

I guess I am slightly obsessive about this game. It's important to me to address any accusation made against me. It's my intent to address them each once, briefly, and then move on to more productive ventures. However, your comment, based as it was not even a little on fact, crossed the realm, for me, from requiring self defense to requiring me to point out a potential scum tell to the group.

That whole post of yours is suspicious: adding fuel to the anti-J fire while actually putting your vote elsewhere, chiming in right as a bandwagon got started. But the fact that your case was totally bogus, while, it seemed worth pointing out.

[jotheonah]

Oh, in MII I was exactly this defensive. Do you remember the book I wrote against Volt when he was after me?

[theorel]

Galz: That's fine I don't expect the pops voters to comment on themselves.  But, as I noted before, if you were town voting for Pops, and if it was a mafia-involved bandwagon (which I can't imagine there wasn't at least one scum among them) means that you have a better chance of picking a mafia by choosing one out of those 4 then choosing one out of the remaining 10.  Now, of course, you're pursuing Jotheonah, but I'm interested in hearing especially from the pops-voters about their fellow pops-voters.

I'm pretty intuitive-minded, so I'm not very good at the specific unless challenged.  I'll work harder at it though.

Now for jotheonah:
I reread his posts, he doesn't strike me as mafia at all.  One of the items brought against him is his whole "we, townies" schtick, so I looked into it.  (Note: this is a good example of where I felt challenged about the specifics...I saw that argument made, but didn't notice it personally while reading his posts.  So, I checked the details to see why)

Here's what I found as relevant to the "we, townies" claim:
#103: first post: let's kill mafia today, we can do it!
#163: My aren't we a jumpy town.  (this is an expression...in fact it puts him as separate from town, which makes sense as he's pointing out that people like to vote for him)
#304: we need town all along the spectrum...
#337: talking about scumhunting.  "We can't be looking for obvious tells, etc"
#343: asking galz how to hunt scum "how ought we hunt scum"
#351: "We, on the other hand, have the option of being authentic"

-and then we hit 357 where he responds to Grujah's comment

#386 he refers to the town showing a general inclination toward appreciating humor.
#424 he refers to us looking for a pseudo-lurker for Mafia.


So, there you go, 6 whole posts where he uses some form of "we, townies".  1 of which is after Grujah's comment.  Note also, that he posted significant amounts about mafia theory between 163 and 304, where he talks about town in the third person.  He's posted what like 60 times in this thread?  I'm not buying it.  As already mentioned by Galzria, we should be motivated by actions, not words.  We have 2 big sources of action at the moment: 5 voters for pops.  And now we've had a total of 5 (real) votes for jotheonah: Captain_Frisk, pops, Green Opal, Galzria, and Tables.  With suspicion thrown around by Insomniac.

I'm not saying that neither should be suspected, in particular jotheonah's bandwagon is split over time (he's not yet topped 3 votes at once).

So, I've got more people to reread...which I should stop doing until after work (darn letting myself get distracted by game)

[Robz888]

Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.

(Emphasis mine)
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia.  Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused".  Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat".  I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes.  (There I go again).  You are welcome to vote for me at any time.

I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you.  My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information.  I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons)  I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.

Sigh. Your posts read too newbie-ish to me to be purposefully naive (purposeful naivety is the default strategy I assume the mafia, especially new mafia will take). So I didn't suspect you as much. I pressed you harder because you were available, asked for questions, and responded. And anyway, if you think THAT was pressing, you are in for a rough ride. I just asked you a couple questions, man.

Well, I must have missed you mentioning your newness again. If you or others take this is a sign that I don't keep my word, fine. Really, I was just trying to urge you not to de-emphasize your abilities because it makes me suspicious. I'm not the type of player who votes early or frequently--I have never changed my vote to someone else in any round of mafia--so no, I wasn't actually going to vote for you. Although I admit it's getting more and more tempting--not because I'm annoyed by you (though I am), but because your posts have rapidly been gaining focus. Now you are a professional poker player? But oh, you don't know what you're doing, or what a rickroll is, or how the game is played. Seems more and more like intentionally naive play, actually.

[Insomniac]

I was MORE defensive in MIII, but we're not supposed to be talking about that.

I guess I am slightly obsessive about this game. It's important to me to address any accusation made against me. It's my intent to address them each once, briefly, and then move on to more productive ventures. However, your comment, based as it was not even a little on fact, crossed the realm, for me, from requiring self defense to requiring me to point out a potential scum tell to the group.

That whole post of yours is suspicious: adding fuel to the anti-J fire while actually putting your vote elsewhere, chiming in right as a bandwagon got started. But the fact that your case was totally bogus, while, it seemed worth pointing out.

Adding fuel to the anti-J fire? I pointed out that I don't find you as suspicious as others. My vote is on pops and will stay there unless given a very good reason to move it.

Chiming in as a bandwagon started? Well that incorrect look who is posting blatant falsehoods now. This is the SECOND time people have voted for you I didn't comment the first time. AND GALZRIA asked me to comment so I did. Anyways, I got another 2 responses from my question so you still seem defensive as all high heck to me. Yes I remember the book on Volt, but everyone was suspicious of Volt at the time. Nobody else that suspected you at all got books in M2. You never wrote a Robz book or a Galzria book. Perhaps because I wrote a Robz book every post of every day that I made.

Anyways still don't find you that suspicious. In case theres any confusion

Jotheonah: you are not one I see myself voting for unless something drastic changes. If I had to rank you you'd be near the top but there's at least 3 other people I'm more suspicious of.

[jotheonah]

geez, who's defensive now?

...

This is stupid. You don't really suspect me and I don't really suspect you and yet we're yelling at each other. Not good. Just please be more careful about posting verifiably untrue things in the future.

[Axxle]

geez, who's defensive now?

...

This is stupid. You don't really suspect me and I don't really suspect you and yet we're yelling at each other. Not good. Just please be more careful about posting verifiably untrue things in the future.

Come on, J.  People remember things differently, like I did when I didn't remember how random O had been in Mafia I.

J is doing things that I find odd and suspicious even just today.  I only got a gist of it this morning but I'll come back during lunch break with more concrete things, but the first thing that comes to mind is that threat he made to Galz about getting lynched.  What was that about?

[Axxle]

Also should say that I'm enjoying seeing SFS breaking out of his noob shell and taking stances on things, especially since it really does seem to be significantly different and not sheepish at all.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also should say that I'm enjoying seeing SFS breaking out of his noob shell and taking stances on things, especially since it really does seem to be significantly different and not sheepish at all.

Yes!  I also loved reading SFS's calling out of RobZ.

@RobZ -  is it really true that you've never unvoted?  That's some serious boldness.  If everyone played that way - you would never lynch.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.

(Emphasis mine)
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia.  Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused".  Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat".  I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes.  (There I go again).  You are welcome to vote for me at any time.

I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you.  My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information.  I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons)  I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.

Sigh. Your posts read too newbie-ish to me to be purposefully naive (purposeful naivety is the default strategy I assume the mafia, especially new mafia will take). So I didn't suspect you as much. I pressed you harder because you were available, asked for questions, and responded. And anyway, if you think THAT was pressing, you are in for a rough ride. I just asked you a couple questions, man.

Well, I must have missed you mentioning your newness again. If you or others take this is a sign that I don't keep my word, fine. Really, I was just trying to urge you not to de-emphasize your abilities because it makes me suspicious. I'm not the type of player who votes early or frequently--I have never changed my vote to someone else in any round of mafia--so no, I wasn't actually going to vote for you. Although I admit it's getting more and more tempting--not because I'm annoyed by you (though I am), but because your posts have rapidly been gaining focus. Now you are a professional poker player? But oh, you don't know what you're doing, or what a rickroll is, or how the game is played. Seems more and more like intentionally naive play, actually.

New emphasis mine
So in your Mafia-the-Game belief system, what's the difference between "not keeping your word" and the notion of a blatant falsehood, which you seem to have made in #544 (p22) if indeed, as you say now, you never intended to vote for me, even if the condition were fulfilled?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Will be gone for several hours, back on tonight, likely after 18:00 EDT.  Logging off so no one thinks I'm lurking.

[jotheonah]

geez, who's defensive now?

...

This is stupid. You don't really suspect me and I don't really suspect you and yet we're yelling at each other. Not good. Just please be more careful about posting verifiably untrue things in the future.

Come on, J.  People remember things differently, like I did when I didn't remember how random O had been in Mafia I.

J is doing things that I find odd and suspicious even just today.  I only got a gist of it this morning but I'll come back during lunch break with more concrete things, but the first thing that comes to mind is that threat he made to Galz about getting lynched.  What was that about?

People remember things differently. But before you post something inflammatory (and easily checkable), you have a bare minimum responsibility to check your memory against the record before making a post.

I'm looking forward to your more concrete things. Just try to remember the line between "odd" and "suspicious" is an important one, and it's much better for us to lynch someone who's behavior is consistent with an intentionally crafted mafia narrative then someone who's behavior is merely weird.

I vaguely regret the post about Galz. I was just feeling an odd sense of deja vu about his persecution of me based on what I consider to be a town playstyle. But I shouldn't even have brought up that game, since it's in progress, and I did NOT mean it to be read as a threat. So, mia culpa on that one I guess. In my book, it's just the sort of careless remark a scum player WOULDN'T make.

[Robz888]

Also should say that I'm enjoying seeing SFS breaking out of his noob shell and taking stances on things, especially since it really does seem to be significantly different and not sheepish at all.

Yes!  I also loved reading SFS's calling out of RobZ.

@RobZ -  is it really true that you've never unvoted?  That's some serious boldness.  If everyone played that way - you would never lynch.

I have unvoted in order to allow a person time to give a response to the accusations, and then I have re-voted that person. But I have never (I'm 99% sure) voted for two different people in a single round. I believe I have voted for someone in every round, though I can't remember if in MI Round 2 I actually voted for TINAS. I remember believing Ozle more than TINAS (and was wrong there), but I would have to look to be sure I actually did vote for TINAS rather than no one.

I tend not to vote until my mind is largely made up. Other people can do as they see fit, but that's my policy.

Given that, let's look at SFS:

Robz: I find the degree to which you took a scumtell from SFS's first response following a break quite interesting. You mention the fluffiness of his post, which I can't really disagree with. Thing is, there have been loads of really quite fluffy posts made, especially by some of the newer players (myself and glooble's opening posts from yesterday come to mind, around #248), what made this one stand out? Granted, you're looking in a similar way at Theorel, but that didn't seem to garner as much attention as the SFS debate so I'll look more at that later.

Actually, Theorel stood out to me way more than SFS. Your fluff, and Glooble's, I may have simply overlooked. I don't know if that's true anymore. SFS has increased his rate of posting, and none of it what I was hoping for from a true townie.

(Emphasis mine)
Yet you pressed me much more than Theo, so this feels like deflection.
And your advice to me at one point was to not vote for people who irked me, but instead to vote for mafia.  Which could be deflection, under the guise of "there there now newbie, stay focused".  Then you told me that if I mentioned my newbie-ness again, you would vote for me, yet I've done so again (earlier this morning) and have done so again in this post, yet no follow-through on your "threat".  I read that as deflection/retreat, and also a good mafia tactic to slow down the post rate of an erratic townie learning the ropes.  (There I go again).  You are welcome to vote for me at any time.

I'll go on record now, I am beginning to suspect you.  My analysis is admittedly incomplete, and probably lacking, but it always will be in this game because of the amount of information.  I played poker professionally as well, and I trust my reads.

UNVOTE
VOTE: ROBZ888 (for the above reasons)  I would be happy to see a bandwagon develop here, to see where it leads us.

Sigh. Your posts read too newbie-ish to me to be purposefully naive (purposeful naivety is the default strategy I assume the mafia, especially new mafia will take). So I didn't suspect you as much. I pressed you harder because you were available, asked for questions, and responded. And anyway, if you think THAT was pressing, you are in for a rough ride. I just asked you a couple questions, man.

Well, I must have missed you mentioning your newness again. If you or others take this is a sign that I don't keep my word, fine. Really, I was just trying to urge you not to de-emphasize your abilities because it makes me suspicious. I'm not the type of player who votes early or frequently--I have never changed my vote to someone else in any round of mafia--so no, I wasn't actually going to vote for you. Although I admit it's getting more and more tempting--not because I'm annoyed by you (though I am), but because your posts have rapidly been gaining focus. Now you are a professional poker player? But oh, you don't know what you're doing, or what a rickroll is, or how the game is played. Seems more and more like intentionally naive play, actually.

New emphasis mine
So in your Mafia-the-Game belief system, what's the difference between "not keeping your word" and the notion of a blatant falsehood, which you seem to have made in #544 (p22) if indeed, as you say now, you never intended to vote for me, even if the condition were fulfilled?

For reference, he is referring to this post:

If you downplay your own ability to play this game one more time, I am going to vote for you. And I don't vote lightly!

Read it whatever way you like: a prod, a threat, a joke, advice, a promise. If you think it was an important promise, then yes, I broke it by not voting for you. Oh well. I'm not yet convinced you are a member of the mafia, so I didn't vote for you. Sorry.

[Dsell]

I just caught up, but now I have to go for just a bit. I will again catch up and post at that time.

[Galzria]

He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.

So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.

[popsofctown]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

[jotheonah]

He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.

So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.

I'd be more suspicious of the guy who ignored your crusade and hoped it would go away, personally. But that seemed to have worked great for pops, so I'mma try the same thing. Be back in a few hours. Don't kill me.

[popsofctown]

Don't hate the player hate the game.

[Galzria]

He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.

So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.

I'd be more suspicious of the guy who ignored your crusade and hoped it would go away, personally. But that seemed to have worked great for pops, so I'mma try the same thing. Be back in a few hours. Don't kill me.

Feel free to point me to where I've vowed for Pops since then, or indicated in the slightest that I thought he was town. No, really. Please do.

[popsofctown]

The word you're looking for is "vouched".

I don't care if anyone vouches me.  As long as everyone sheeps my reads when I flip town.

[Glooble]

Okay, when I last posted (like a billion pages ago it seems) I suspected SFS. His contributions since then have me leaning more towards a town read. I feel like Mafia play (even noob Mafia play) would be more calculated.

I feel like this is the point where I should be throwing around a vote, but none of the bandwagons I've seen have really sold me yet. Let's go down the list (by which I mean, everyone whop has votes on them as of the last vote count):

Insomniac:
I'm not certain his jumping on J was just carelessness. But 25 pages is a lot to reread, and especially as he's been involved in MII and MIII, I could see how he could get confused. We all need to be careful to judges people only by the actions they take in this game, or at least keep other games separate. On the other hand, if he were scum he might be trying to join one bandwagon while leaving the other likely bandwagon open for himself, so I see J's point. Right now I'd call him slightly scummy.

Robz888:
I agree with him that one of the Mafia is probably a "pseudo-lurker", since it seems like an easy way for an inexperienced Mafioso to hide (and because it's just statistically likely given the number of Mafia.) Robz himself doesn't read scummy at all to me. He read very scummy to me in MII where he was scum. Of course that doesn't really mean anything, but I haven't seen anything in his posts to convince me he's Mafia.

popsofCtown:
His terse style and refusal to answer questions strikes me as unhelpful. It would be an easy way to play Mafia since the less you talk, the harder it is to catch yourself in a lie. I said before I had suspicions about him, and I still do. I think if I had to vote now, I would vote for him. I would like to hear more from the people who think he's scum. It's more of a gut feeling for me right now than a reasoned analysis and I don't feel like voting based on that at this phase of the game when he already has four votes on him.

Grujah: Given what I said earlier about expecting one of the Mafia to be a pseudolurker, he seems the most likely candidate to me. Again, gut feeling. After this post I might go back and look more closely at his contributions, see if I can find anything odd we might have missed.

jotheonah: SO far his play looks like town play to me, especially seeing as coming off the train wreck that was Mafia II changing up his play style is a sensible move. He looks the tiniest bit scummy to me, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

DSell: CF's arguments against him could apply to a lot of people. His vote seemed to come out of no where. DSell hasn't really done much to give me a read on him either way.

Okay, so that's it for me for now. I think I'm going look over Grujah's contributions and see if anything sticks out at me. I might also revisit DSell  and Insomniac depending how much time I end up having? We'll see.

btw, I'm now super-paranoid about my posts reading as "fluff" thanks to Robz. If that was your goal, you've accomplished it.

[Insomniac]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

What is this? I don't even...

Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?

Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me

[Insomniac]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

What is this? I don't even...

Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?

Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me

Oops
"Also I can't remember who stated it but O didn't start the bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me"

[popsofctown]

I talk a lot.  Much of my terseness has been intended to relieve stress on player playing catchup.  If I didn't transform my playstyle no one would ever catch up to the thread.

[popsofctown]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

What is this? I don't even...

Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?

Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me

So you're saying if he is a pro at online poker and forum mafia you would sheep him?

[Glooble]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

[Galzria]

The word you're looking for is "vouched".

I don't care if anyone vouches me.  As long as everyone sheeps my reads when I flip town.

Yes, auto correct on the mobile grabbed the wrong "V" word  and I didn't notice.

[theorel]

He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.

So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.

To be fair Galz, I don't sense any idea of your "single-minded"ness in J's defense.  He used the term persecution, but was referring to the course of multiple games.
his defensiveness is suspicious, so is being pursued twice in the first two days (IMO).  Mafia want us to read suspicion into non-suspicious things, they want to keep bringing the same people under the spotlight until they crack.  And then they'll note how cracking under pressure is a clear sign of mafia, and encourage everyone to vote.  That's why I think bandwagons are the place to look.

[popsofctown]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

Indeed, because it's not the strongest way for me to play the game.

I was faced with playing well, or forcing half the players to replace out.

I didn't like making the choice

I MAY USE EMOTICONS BE WARNED

[theorel]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

[Captain_Frisk]

DSell: CF's arguments against him could apply to a lot of people. His vote seemed to come out of no where. DSell hasn't really done much to give me a read on him either way.

Let me back this up a bit more.  We've got some vocal people, some middle of the roaders, and some lurkers.  We've been spending alot of time discussing vocal players which results in some large and public bickering, and some of the lurkers - who pop up to say hi, and that seems to calm everyone down.

I decided to look a bit in the middle and see if anything stood out - and I selected DSell for the reasons I outlined in my original post.  I voted (vs. just asking him to say hi / explain himself) - because I believe it to be more useful .  Does a bandwagon start?  Does the accusation draw strong defense?  Does the whole thing get ignored?

I take the opposite approach as Rob when it comes to voting.  I'm happy to vote (to spark discussion), and unvote if I lose confidence.  I don't see how you could ever be so confident on Day 1 that you wouldn't want to keep that flexibility.

That said - explicitly stating that you will make a certain decision and sticking with it can be powerful game theory.  See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_sexes_(game_theory)#Burning_money for a very poor explanation.  It is the reason why the many governments have a strict policy of not negotiating with terrorists.  By leaving the option of negotiation off the table, attempting to hold something ransom has a very poor expected value for a potential terrorist... generally - the loss of your life.

Here's another great example if you want to waste a few minutes of your life: http://welkerswikinomics.com/blog/2012/04/20/golden-balls-game-theory-the-prisoners-dilemma-and-the-cold-rationality-of-human-behavior/

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

You can go to an individuals profile and click "Show Posts".  Of course, you'll see posts from other topics as well, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

[popsofctown]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

You need a semicolon there.

[Galzria]

@Theorel:

I do not believe I've referenced in any way the actions of myself or others from other games to draw conclusions, unlike his threat at me.

Also, if I in any way held actions from one game as representative of how I would play in another, I would've come out of the gates swinging for O.

I believe if you look at my play in any of the three games, you'll see few similarities. And in my first game, I never went after J. His threat against me from events in M-III stand with no parallel. I *will not* dismiss someone because I happened to believe something of them from a different game. His chances of being Mafia here are equal to anybody elses when PM's went out, and I've treated him with that intent.

My suspicions have been 100% based in this game. His defenses and responses have not.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

You need a semicolon there.

This is true; however, I don't see how this is helping your recently stated goal of helping people catch up who are pages behind.

[popsofctown]

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

You need a semicolon there.

This is true; however, I don't see how this is helping your recently stated goal of helping people catch up who are pages behind.

Count the words.

[Galzria]

Also, I'm done talking about that for now. My suspicions are on J right now, for my stated reasons, and that's it.

[Glooble]

Ok, rereading all of Grujah's posts, I saw nothing to tell me he wasn't Mafia. In fact, if I assume he is Mafia his vote for pops just seems way too transparent.

Theorel, I agree with you that the bandwagons, who jumps on them, when, and why are probably our most concrete source of information right now. Would you care to point at what it is in Grujah's record that makes him, in your eyes, the scummiest of the pops voters?

[Glooble]

Sorry, bad typo. The first sentence should read "nothing to tell me he was Mafia." Though I guess the reverse is also true.

[Captain_Frisk]

Count the words.

It's like you are daring us to vote for you.  Why?

[theorel]

@Galz:
No argument from me there, as that was my point.  His defenses were not entirely based in this game, and your defense of your "persecution" of him was.  It's not a point in favor of him for bringing it up.  But you ignored it, hence my "to be fair" comment.  I don't like people talking past each other.

@Glooble (since you posted while I wrote this):
I'll look back over and try to concrete-ify my suspicions.  Note: I still haven't reviewed O's or Galz's posts.  Also Note: I may not be able to get it done before tonight, which may mean that I can't get it done before tomorrow morning (depending on how active the afternoon is).  I'm on EST.

[popsofctown]

Count the words.

It's like you are daring us to vote for you.  Why?

My actions shouldn't make you want to vote me.  Lynch mafia, not scum.
I'm being an irritant because I feel like I only have one liners to work with.  Only one person left to catch up, though, right?

[Dsell]

Right now, I'm feeling some nervousness about DSell.  He's hanging around the middle post count wise, and his major contributions to date have been:

1. Jumping on pops for his terse play yesterday.
2. Railing on SFS - which reads like "picking on noob and hoping he cracks"  Maybe this is good play, but it seemed to go on a little further than was strictly necessary.

While I don't like pops' play, I'm putting him in the "O" camp for now... as in too crazy to get a meaningful read - so I saw DSell as just potentially trying to rile up the town.

Vote: DSell

@Captain_Frisk, I don't believe those are my only contributions, but it's fair to say they're my main ones.

Let me defend my questioning of SFS. First, I think the premise of "don't rail on the noob" is wrong. Like I've said, being new to the game does not preclude him from being mafia, and he DID sign up for playing this game. Maybe he didn't know what he was getting into, but none of these things give him a bye. Furthermore, I had to be persistent because we weren't really getting anything out of him. My "railing" of SFS can be summed up as:

1) "SFS, you haven't said anything of substance, which is suspicious."
(lots more fluff)
2) "SFS, please say something of substance so that we can get an idea of where your head is at."
(even more fluff and minimal substance)
3) "SFS, you still haven't said much of substance, and even your minimal substance has done very little to calm my suspicions."

The reason it was much longer and more drawn out is because he kept posting and posting but I wasn't hearing anything but fluff.

I completely stand by jumping on pops. Separate from whether he is mafia or town, his style is extremely offputting to me, and he has made more posts in the same style recently. So far in this game I have seen a lot of reasons for suspecting people, so I'm going to make a post on that soon.

[popsofctown]

Lynch mafia, not scum :/

[popsofctown]

Have I unvoted my joke vote?

[theorel]

cool, I finished it:
#330: cast suspicion on Axxle/Tables
Also mentions feelings on others
And a willingness to hammer/bandwagon while voting Insomniac.
-anyways, this post just struck me as off.

#354 he starts the "we, townies" suspicion on J.  (which as mentioned I disagree with)

#383/#397 (the quick win over to Pops)

#447: casts suspicion on Axxle again.

#555: brings back up Tables/Axxle, and adds in some SFS suspicion

#595 SFS again. #604 again

Obviously this could all be newbie town.  It strikes me that he's put himself into a position where he's willing to switch to lots of people, plus he's got the whole "I'm impressionable" defense.  Probably a big part of it is: I disagree with the reason for his suspicion of Tables/Axxle from 330.  I disagree with his reasoning in 354.

I'll have to look into the SFS push, but I'm betting I'll disagree there.  Maybe we just find different things suspicious?  Maybe he's grasping at straws, trying to fake scum-hunting and playing newb to be able to wagon anybody.

As far as the "it's obviously mafia" I'm going with the obvious mafia play is obvious mafia play, not town play.  Which I will hereby always abbreviate as "Obvious play is obvious"


---
@Pops: I think reasonably long well-reasoned posts slow down posting and help people catch up.  With time-zones and work schedules someone's always going to be catching up.  I think longer posts slow the game down because people start reading, rereading and thinking more while talking less.

[O]

Right now, I'm feeling some nervousness about DSell.  He's hanging around the middle post count wise, and his major contributions to date have been:

1. Jumping on pops for his terse play yesterday.
2. Railing on SFS - which reads like "picking on noob and hoping he cracks"  Maybe this is good play, but it seemed to go on a little further than was strictly necessary.

While I don't like pops' play, I'm putting him in the "O" camp for now... as in too crazy to get a meaningful read - so I saw DSell as just potentially trying to rile up the town.

Vote: DSell

So.. we're voting for people with a *middle* vote count now?

Hey, mafia buddies, you should probably start posting less or more, either one will get Captain Frisk less suspicious of you!

That being said, Dsell did bandwagon *twice*.



@Tables: I find your arguments terrible to the point of offense. Me and Galzria are more than allowed to spend our time having "fun", and despite "wasting" several pages have actually still contributed more to the scumhunt than you.

[theorel]

bah, I need to preview edit rather than post-edit more:

It should say:
As far as the "it's too obviously mafia, must be town" defense, I'm going with: obvious mafia play is obvious mafia play, not town play.  Which I will hereby always abbreviate as "Obvious play is obvious"

[O]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

What is this? I don't even...

Professional poker player does not mean he's good at reading people online, it means he's good at reading peoples face. (Unless he's a pro online poker player). That said why the hell are you so sure he's town?

Also I can't remember who started it but O didn't start he bandwagon on pops, I did, O made it a bandwagon by joining me

So you're saying if he is a pro at online poker and forum mafia you would sheep him?

I actually had forgotten that you had a vote on Pops at the time, and certainly didn't think your vote was really serious.

[popsofctown]

Insomniac's vote on me is dead serious

[O]

Insomniac's vote on me is dead serious

I realized that after he accused me of starting a bandwagon.

[Dsell]

That being said, Dsell did bandwagon *twice*.

I did NOT bandwagon on pops. I was frustrated with him, but I specifically did not vote for him because 1) I did not want to vote when I was upset, better to cool down and think things through, and 2) things were really moving fast. The vote has not gone anywhere, which I think is good for this point of the game, but I agree with the people who suspect that at least one mafia was on board there (if pops is town, so I guess we can't know for sure). I will try to address that in a later post.

[Insomniac]

Insomniac's vote on me is dead serious

I realized that after he accused me of starting a bandwagon.

To be clear I don't think you started a bandwagon it just wasn't one until you voted for him. I voted for him before it was cool

That being said, Dsell did bandwagon *twice*.

I did NOT bandwagon on pops. I was frustrated with him, but I specifically did not vote for him because 1) I did not want to vote when I was upset, better to cool down and think things through, and 2) things were really moving fast. The vote has not gone anywhere, which I think is good for this point of the game, but I agree with the people who suspect that at least one mafia was on board there (if pops is town, so I guess we can't know for sure). I will try to address that in a later post.

I have to adress this post with where you say " but I agree with the people who suspect that at least one mafia was on board there (if pops is town, so I guess we can't know for sure)."   Pops being town or mafia doesn't mean a mafia isn't hiding here. If he is mafia it puts you alot in the clear if you were seen voting for one of your partners at some point in time.

[popsofctown]

Mafia are on the joth wagon, not on my wagon.  My wagon is just misguided townies. 

Joth is a very easy vote, but townie gut should exonerate his later posting.  I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me.  I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.

[Captain_Frisk]

So.. we're voting for people with a *middle* vote count now?

Hey, mafia buddies, you should probably start posting less or more, either one will get Captain Frisk less suspicious of you!

The goal of the mafia is so survive @ all costs.  Each member of them lost makes it harder and harder to control the discussion of the day.

How could one hide as mafia?

1.  Lurk and don't post anything / much.  You can't be suspicious if you don't say anything.  Unfortunately - its apparently standard practice to lynch non participants.
2.  Post a whole lot early (preferably without substance) so you seem pro town.  This is the summary of: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=How_to_Win_as_Mafia:_Calculated_Inaction.  Also - the more you post - the more chance you have of slipping up. 
3.  Play "erratically" - Bluff and be crazy enough that people think that you might be mafia, but you're so crazy that it would be too obvious.  I'd classify you and Pops as potential adopters of a strategy such as this.
4.  Whats left?  Play straight - somewhere in the middle - try to be appear helpful - don't stand out.  You don't need to worry about being night killed for being too protown, because you are mafia.

I do find it interesting that:

A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.

Contrast this to pops

A. Acts like a jerk.
B. Refuses to defend himself and taunts the town.
C. Bandwagon starts and grows fast, both with votes and suspicions.
D. Calms down as its clear that the frenzy isn't quite enough.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me.  I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.

You better watch out O.

Crazy Scoreboard (game started @ 6/5 4:00 PM Eastern):
Pops: 1
O: 0

[Glooble]

Still trying to decide if I'm more of a Robz or a CF when it comes to voting, that is to say "don't vote until you're reasonably certain" or "vote early, vote often".

Hmm... what the hell. Chances are one of the Mafia is new and/or lurking. I know that one isn't me, and I'm finding theorel's reasoning to be very transparent - he's answered my questions in a way that makes sense to me. I said before I was suspicious of SFS, but I'm less so since Robz drew him out and he defended himself. I can sympathize with him suspecting no one, since I kind of feel the same way, though I'm now taking small suspicions and forcing myself to look at them in a better light.
Tables is kind of lurking, but I'm getting the sense he's just overwhelmed. So that leaves Grujah. looking at the posts theorel has highlighted, I can see his point - he posts a lot of short posts, jumps on a lot of bandwagons, and seems to lack strong convictions. It could be overexcited town play, but it reads more like overexcited scum play, i.e. "let me put more votes on whoever has votes so someone gets lynched."
Am I sold? No. But given that 1. we ought to lynch someone today and these's no one I'm certain of, 2. there's a pretty good chance one pops voter is Mafia, since the Mafia would want to hedge their bets, and 3. there's a pretty good chance, statistically, that one of the new or less active players is scum, Grujah seems like a good bet for me to place. I am, of course, fully open to changing this vote when and if someone else looks more suspicious.
Nothing personal.

VOTE: GRUJAH

[Galzria]

VOLT: Can we get an updated vote count? I'm not quite sure I've seen them all come in.

[Green Opal]

pops, you have one weird sense of humour. Everything you're doing is just so off the wall that it's hard not to think there's something weird going on with you... Making (short) posts that require players to stop and do a double-take to try to even have a clue what's going on has to slow down thread comprehension at least as much as a few essays...

I'm slightly gratified that I think I'm the only player who hasn't taken on (written) suspicion in some form from anyone, though that's probably as much a result of my not having given very many posts as anything else.

Also, what's wrong with using emoticons? 

[Galzria]

For the record, I now arbitrarily suspect Green Opal. My reasons are my own.

---

Better?

[Insomniac]

For the record, I now arbitrarily suspect Green Opal. My reasons are my own.

---

Better?

POPS why did you highjack Galzria's login!?!?!?

[Axxle]

I always forget Green Opal is playing. He is an incredibly successful lurker.

[popsofctown]

Responds to... some post number
If I was in my first game I would vote for me right now.  I have a very different mindset than everyone else in this game, which causes the faulty assumption that it arises from a unique motivation.  No, let me rephrase that.  A unique wincon.

Consider that most players around here have mentioned at one point or another that they are afraid of getting nightkilled as town.  That is really backwards thinking.  As VT you should never be scared of getting NKed as town, and as a PR you should care only a smidge more about whether you're appearing so protown you will be NKed.  It's not a team mentality, someone has to get NKed.  It might as well be you.

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.  Oftentimes the two day one lynches will be opposite philosophies of what prism through which to view the events of the day.  It arises from many statements being true or false, many pairs of players that are town exclusive-or scum, or two ways of identifying the "scumhiding wagon" and the "idiothiding wagon" of the day.  I don't mean idiot in a rude way since you folks seem rather sensitive and I have to remember some of you are new the Internet and all, I just mean that one wagon is characterized by being misguided.

Sometimes one prism will have a vague idea of what's going on but won't pinpoint who's really the scum within that group of interpretations.  Sometimes the prism very clearly has someone picked out, as in, if we're going to look at the game in this manner at all, X is definitely scum.

My goal is to focus the other prism.  When a town is sure it has caught scum, lynches it, and then realizes it has failed, it always switches prisms.  Actually a lot of times I catch scum because they'll be the ones that forget to switch prisms.  I want to make sure that the game heads in the best direction I can point it day 2, whether I'm there or not.

joth is probably not scum, but I'm actually unsure enough about that that I could roll with procrastinating investigation of his wagon until after he flips.  But I do think if joth is town that his wagon is more likely to contain scum than mine is.  This is some of the pointing I'm trying to do.  SFS is town, that is also some pointing.  I announced it in a way that was abrupt because it gets people talking, like fanning the feathers of so many angry male peacocks so I can read the patterns.  I described why he was town earlier and you should try to appreciate the reasoning in my explanation and put yourself in his shoes.  The poker joke was meant to highlight the concept of sheeping and see how people felt about it and how that related to their reactions to my declarations.  What I've gotten from it is -1 point for Insomniac because he understands it conceptually but voted me for trying to influence others about SFS.

[Glooble]

Green Opal:

Whoah, I totally forgot about you in my list of new people/lurkers. You're exceptionally good at slipping under the radar, it would seem.

Still going with Grujah, but I have my eye on you.

People I have my eye on:
O
pops
Green Opal

a tiny bit Jotheonah

[popsofctown]

vote: glooble for now.

I very much disagree with his opinion of Tables.  Though maybe that means I should vote Tables.

[Insomniac]

Responds to... some post number
If I was in my first game I would vote for me right now.  I have a very different mindset than everyone else in this game, which causes the faulty assumption that it arises from a unique motivation.  No, let me rephrase that.  A unique wincon.

Consider that most players around here have mentioned at one point or another that they are afraid of getting nightkilled as town.  That is really backwards thinking.  As VT you should never be scared of getting NKed as town, and as a PR you should care only a smidge more about whether you're appearing so protown you will be NKed.  It's not a team mentality, someone has to get NKed.  It might as well be you.

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim.  Oftentimes the two day one lynches will be opposite philosophies of what prism through which to view the events of the day.  It arises from many statements being true or false, many pairs of players that are town exclusive-or scum, or two ways of identifying the "scumhiding wagon" and the "idiothiding wagon" of the day.  I don't mean idiot in a rude way since you folks seem rather sensitive and I have to remember some of you are new the Internet and all, I just mean that one wagon is characterized by being misguided.

Sometimes one prism will have a vague idea of what's going on but won't pinpoint who's really the scum within that group of interpretations.  Sometimes the prism very clearly has someone picked out, as in, if we're going to look at the game in this manner at all, X is definitely scum.

My goal is to focus the other prism.  When a town is sure it has caught scum, lynches it, and then realizes it has failed, it always switches prisms.  Actually a lot of times I catch scum because they'll be the ones that forget to switch prisms.  I want to make sure that the game heads in the best direction I can point it day 2, whether I'm there or not.

joth is probably not scum, but I'm actually unsure enough about that that I could roll with procrastinating investigation of his wagon until after he flips.  But I do think if joth is town that his wagon is more likely to contain scum than mine is.  This is some of the pointing I'm trying to do.  SFS is town, that is also some pointing.  I announced it in a way that was abrupt because it gets people talking, like fanning the feathers of so many angry male peacocks so I can read the patterns.  I described why he was town earlier and you should try to appreciate the reasoning in my explanation and put yourself in his shoes.  The poker joke was meant to highlight the concept of sheeping and see how people felt about it and how that related to their reactions to my declarations.  What I've gotten from it is -1 point for Insomniac because he understands it conceptually but voted me for trying to influence others about SFS.

I don't care if I got -1 point. I never said I would sheep follow him I pointed out why him being a poker player doesn't matter. Also I voted for you LONG before you tried to influence others about SFS. You still haven't said how you're so sure he's town.

[jotheonah]

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

[Glooble]

My opinion of Tables is that he is normally very active and insightful but real life/ the enormousness of this thread is keeping him from keeping the kind of notes he would like to. Why do you disagree with this assessment? It's likely you have a different perspective than I, so I'd like to hear.

I'd also be interested in hearing what you find suspicious about me.

[Dsell]

In this game so far, there has been a LOT of material that's looked to me to be suspicious/scummy. It's rather hard to keep track of, actually. So here's a list of some things that have struck me wrong, starting with a list of where I was at yesterday and then an amended list to reflect some things that have happened today.

Yesterday's list:
popsofctown: His style really bothers me and he's been very underwhelming to me in terms of helpfulness. I would have expected more from such an experienced player. Since I really don't get a lot of his posts, I think there is a very real chance that he is using strategies that are way above me, but that doesn't clear him. I would expect town to be at least somewhat helpful, and he has been suppressing information and posts, rather than contributing. I don't at all like being manipulated. (p-p edit: just as I think it's smart to look at his bandwagon, I agree with his recent post that checking jo's bandwagon is a good idea too)

SFS: Tough to know what to make of him, but his dearth of substance has NOT built up any trust with me. I am glad that he has attempted some substance so I am willing to wait things out with him. Even his substance, though, has not made me feel much better. I seriously, seriously have my eye on him.

Grujah: His vote for pops felt the most bandwagony to me. He gave no real reason, but what interests me most is his defense: intentionally bandwagoning and then deflecting attention. Finally, he pointed out that pops was online but not answering answering. He then disappeared himself. I don't know what to make of his activity as a whole, but this series of events struck me as very strange. (p-p edit: also do not like him repeatedly touting how impressionable he is...if nothing else it is a weakness he should not show)

Theorel: Of his minimal content yesterday, what I saw looked copied and pasted from the "how a mafiosa wants to appear" playbook. Not enough to build a case on but enough to pique my interest.

Also minimally suspicious of jo and Axxle.

Updated to reflect more of today's posts:

Theorel: A lot of new posts that seem really straight up. Not suspicious anymore, I think he could be a real asset to the town.

jo: I think that I need to go back and review some more of what's happened since I was reading quickly to try to catch up, but his defense seems almost frantic to me. Chill out man. Also the "I'm mafia" thing. Just bad bad bad bad. More suspicious today, need to go back and review some more though.

pops: What can I say? Both he and SFS are now going against Robz and he is again telling us "we should all just copy him." Why? No! Give me a better reason man! On that note, SFS is now a former poker player? Not sure how this reflects on things but his self-deprecation just got more suspicious to me.

[O]

I do find it interesting that:

A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.

I like how you put my actions in a mafia narrative.
@A I had sleep and then graduation practice
@B You're correct here
@C I was dismissive of your crap logic, and not dismissive of your not crap logic. Neither of those was an indicator of my overall suspicion of Dsell
@D Nobody has, very true. None of either the mafia or the town (or SK) has found your claim very substantitive. Just like people always seem to ignore it when I cast suspicion on you.

[Axxle]

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah
I'm concurrently looking through J's old posts and keeping up with the thread but I think my vote will go to J for this incredibly premature VT roleclaim.

[Axxle]

longpost

Yay, pops is back.  From this post it looks like you're going to post like this more often, do that.

[O]

I do find it interesting that:

A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.

I like how you put my actions in a mafia narrative.
@A I had sleep and then graduation practice
@B You're correct here
@C I was dismissive of your crap logic, and not dismissive of your not crap logic. Neither of those was an indicator of my overall suspicion of Dsell
@D Nobody has, very true. None of either the mafia or the town (or SK) has found your claim very substantitive. Just like people always seem to ignore it when I cast suspicion on you.

@@A

My point is poorly spoken. My point is that *other* people, not just me, have commitments and lives 

[Voltgloss]

Axxle, O, and jotheonah were searching the Estate's Library for the elusive portcullis key.  Axxle was methodically perusing the stacks and searching areas that appeared recently disturbed.  jotheonah had brought out a stepladder and was scanning the tops of the shelves.

O, meanwhile, had somewhere acquired a large sheet of paper and was sliding it under the quarter-inch gap between the shelves and the floor.

Axxle cocked an eyebrow at O.  "They couldn't hide the key under there."

O looked up and grinned.  "Maybe it's a keycard!"

....

jotheonah:  "I worry about you, O."

Vote Count 1-7

Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (3) - Insomniac, O, Grujah
Grujah (2) - theorel, Glooble
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Galzria, Tables, Axxle
Dsell (1) - Captain_Frisk
Glooble (1) - popsofctown

Not Voting {3} - Robz888, Dsell, jotheonah

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Dsell]

I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched.

Goodness gracious, jo, for the love of all things holy, STOP TALKING LIKE THIS. This is either incredibly stupid town play or a mafia bluff to deflect attention and both are BAD.

[Dsell]

I do find it interesting that:

A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.

Contrast this to pops

A. Acts like a jerk.
B. Refuses to defend himself and taunts the town.
C. Bandwagon starts and grows fast, both with votes and suspicions.
D. Calms down as its clear that the frenzy isn't quite enough.

I'm not quite sure who you are addressing here? It doesn't sound like you are addressing me. I'm also not sure what your conclusions are. In case it was to me, I didn't ignore your vote, I responded as soon as I could after catching up.

[jotheonah]

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah
I'm concurrently looking through J's old posts and keeping up with the thread but I think my vote will go to J for this incredibly premature VT roleclaim.

You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role.  As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

[O]

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah
I'm concurrently looking through J's old posts and keeping up with the thread but I think my vote will go to J for this incredibly premature VT roleclaim.

You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role.  As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

Because then if the Mafia believe you, they can ignore you and have a higher chance to hit a power-role

[jotheonah]

But as the mafia make that decision (about who is most likely to be a power role), they're presented with a whole big WIFOM. They only know for sure if they investigate me, in which case they'd know for sure anyway. I just ... don't think it's that big a deal.

And none of this explains why Axxle thinks it's worthy of a vote, because I can't see even a little bit why it makes sense for the mafia, for the reasons I explained earlier.

Oh look, I'm getting worked up again. Meh.

[Dsell]

As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

If nothing else it can make the mafia's nightkill more likely to hit a power role.

P-P edit: Ninja'd by O. Oh well. Jo, you have got to reign it in. "Stupid townie" play is largely what has resulted in lynches of town in the other mafia games. 

[jotheonah]

As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

If nothing else it can make the mafia's nightkill more likely to hit a power role.

P-P edit: Ninja'd by O. Oh well. Jo, you have got to reign it in. "Stupid townie" play is largely what has resulted in lynches of town in the other mafia games. 

In Mafia II, I tend to think SMART town play was the culprit. Or should I say "smart" town play.

[Dsell]

As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

If nothing else it can make the mafia's nightkill more likely to hit a power role.

P-P edit: Ninja'd by O. Oh well. Jo, you have got to reign it in. "Stupid townie" play is largely what has resulted in lynches of town in the other mafia games. 

In Mafia II, I tend to think SMART town play was the culprit. Or should I say "smart" town play.

I actually meant day 1 lynches, sorry. I wasn't following M II after day 1 enough to be able to comment.

[Glooble]

Alternately, smart "town" play.

[Captain_Frisk]

I do find it interesting that:

A. My vote was largely ignored for a while.
B. DSell was politely defensive.
C. You were then dismissive AND then hedged with a maybe.
D. No-one else has jumped on or expressed any interest.

Contrast this to pops

A. Acts like a jerk.
B. Refuses to defend himself and taunts the town.
C. Bandwagon starts and grows fast, both with votes and suspicions.
D. Calms down as its clear that the frenzy isn't quite enough.

I'm not quite sure who you are addressing here? It doesn't sound like you are addressing me. I'm also not sure what your conclusions are. In case it was to me, I didn't ignore your vote, I responded as soon as I could after catching up.

This was directed to O, who lept to your defense and accused me of crap logic for suspecting someone who's been flying under the radar suspicion wise - and then hedged by saying that well, yeah you had been bandwagoning.

As for conclusion, there's no conclusion.  I just personally find it interesting that it fell flat - ignored - vs. sparking discussion or starting a bandwagon like some of the other votes out there.

Nothing against you specifically, and I don't think that a strong defense to accusations or a single vote at this point is even warranted.  Is that because my vote is stupid?  That's what O is saying - and he may be right.  Is it because i've hit mafia and its better to just let it slide rather than try to get the town worked up? 

Clearly - I can't say for anything for certain... the only piece of information that I am 100% confident of is my role PM.  Maybe I should go check it just in case - like pops.

[O]

and then hedged by saying that well, yeah you had been bandwagoning.

I repeat, "hedged" is deliberate misdirection. If I respond to your points by agreeing with one and disagreeing with another, it's not "hedging".

Lets put it this way: If I first said "yea! Dsell's been bandwagoning a lot! But I don't think your point about hovering around the middle of the post count is valid" (Disclaimer: I would never ever speak like this outside of quotes and/or sarcasm), it seems very much like you would have said that you're glad I agreed with you and that I did bring up a valid point about post count  .

Whether this means you're manipulative or just manipulatable, well...

[popsofctown]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

[O]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

*puts away Jester mask*

[Dsell]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

Pops, do you mean to say that you think he is being a very bad townie or mafia? Or unsure? What is your idea of holy wrath if you think he's a townie, since you advocate only voting for mafia, rather than scum?

I don't ask these questions to be difficult, but so far it has been the best way of getting to the actual meaning of your posts. You can pretty much expect a lot of questions from me after some of your posts.

[Insomniac]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

*puts away Jester mask*

But Volt wouldn't put TWO jester's in this game would he?

[Dsell]

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

You need a semicolon there.

This is true; however, I don't see how this is helping your recently stated goal of helping people catch up who are pages behind.

Count the words.

On that note, pops, I am still really baffled by this exchange. Do you have any plans to explain it? Or do you have a really strange sense of humor that persists even when others are serious (a la O)?

[Glooble]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

*puts away Jester mask*

But Volt wouldn't put TWO jester's in this game would he?

I think it would be hilarious to moderate a mafia game and send everyone jester as their role PM. Just to see what would happen with a whole town trying to get themselves lynched.

[popsofctown]

I've been told I have a very dry sense of humor.

RE: Joth : I will happily lynch a claimed VT that has a coin flip chance of being scum D1.  I do think he's townish, but he's not far from even chances for me.
The effect of having a VT in the shooting pool is really devastating for the town.

Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

[jotheonah]

I don't wish to debate this, but claiming a non-role does not seem to me on par with claiming a role, for various reasons. VT is what everyone's supposed to assume everyone else is anyway. The fact that I said it means nothing. You have no reason to believe or disbelieve me, nor do the mafia. It is, in my mind, very much like not claiming. In future games, I will avoid it because it clearly irks people. But really, I kinda think it's a nonissue.

I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble, and I don't get a town read from Grujah. The Grujah wagon seems to me to be the most authentic wagon out there. I don't think Grujah is actually online/around, so his lack of a defense is neither suspicious nor non-suspicious. But for now, I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Grujah

For the record, he was the third suspect in my readthrough anyway, and my suspicion of CF wasn't really doing anything/going anywhere (partly cause I got real distracted by the votes on me, my own meditation on defensiveness and town play, and, oh yeah, meatspace stuff, and didn't have the time/energy to actually pursue it.)

[jotheonah]

Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.

[O]

Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.

Regardless of how suspicious you are, I doubt that.

[popsofctown]

I lol'ed.  I believe him, if town.

[jotheonah]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

[Dsell]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

[Captain_Frisk]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

If you self vote - I will vote for you.

[Dsell]

And if not anti-town, at least anti-self.

[Axxle]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

Unvote; Vote: Jotheonah This is the only way I know of to vote for you again.

[Robz888]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Yeah, just watched this Jo situation unfold, my goodness. I am going to think it over a bit first, but... the VT roleclaim and then this makes it highly likely I will vote for him soon.

[jotheonah]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Might as well go for the trifecta, right? Also, give me some credit, at least I asked first.

[O]

ZOMG JOTHEONAHS JESTER!!!!!

[Robz888]

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

This is like the perfect storm of anti-town behavior. I don't even know how to interpret this.

Might as well go for the trifecta, right? Also, give me some credit, at least I asked first.

Asking first is worse. You are gauging reaction before doing it.

[jotheonah]

See, I would have thought that at least someone would read that question as hypothetical. But like, you're all sure I'd actually do it.


So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)  Now if anyone but me gets lynched (according to lots of people) I'm a nighttime liability to the town. So in that case, I ask again, isn't it pro-town for me to facilitate my own lynch?

[Glooble]

I don't know what the hell is going on with jo. It seems like really dumb town play, but dumber mafia play. But I think a certain amount of it can be summed up as "in for a penny, in a for a pound" - that is to say, he was acting so crazy he thought he might as well act really crazy, get himself lynched, and hope the information about who goes for the easy lynch helps the rest of us find scum.

Is that the gamble, jo? The master plan?

[jotheonah]

That is it exactly. You can read me like a book.

Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

Just for the sake of accurate documentation:  If you check my post at #599, you'll see that I state "I played professional poker".  I do not do so anymore.  I have posted about my experience in that arena elsewhere on f.DS, so my playing is not new news.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

If you go to a player's profile, then on the left side of that page will be a "Show all posts" option.

[Captain_Frisk]

That is it exactly. You can read me like a book.

Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.

So - my musings on a VT roleclaim.

- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone.  If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another.  While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.

- If he's actually a town PR - then why claim VT?

- If mafia - a power role claim offer's stronger lynch protection - either it is counter claimed - in which case mafia gains information... or you survive for an extra day

- If mafia - a VT claim is unverifiable on Day 1

Like the others have said - it feels premature to be nervous about being lynched. 

J doesn't strike me as a bad player, so I don't believe it's a mistake - despite his claim.  I'm left being highly suspicious, but I'm not interested in actually lynching him today.

[Captain_Frisk]

J doesn't strike me as a bad player, so I don't believe it's a mistake - despite his claim.  I'm left being highly suspicious, but I'm not interested in actually lynching him today.

By "today" I'm referring to meatspace - June 5th.  Not the day period we are currently in game - which ends in several weeks.

[O]

- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone.  If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another.  While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.

You're logical and clearheaded enough that this willing misinterpretation is confusing. My point was that if mafia believe Jo's VT roleclaim (which they probably do if Jo is NOT mafia), then the mafia won't kill him and have a higher chance of hitting a power role.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Mafia are on the joth wagon, not on my wagon.  My wagon is just misguided townies. 

Joth is a very easy vote, but townie gut should exonerate his later posting.  I am suspicious of the people that vote joth, including me.  I double checked my role pm though and I'm good to go.

Wait, I better go read mine.

[Tables]

The heck is going on here?

I'll start again with a correction to information about me

My opinion of Tables is that he is normally very active and insightful but real life/ the enormousness of this thread is keeping him from keeping the kind of notes he would like to...

(Post written after 715 with no editing after that)

I wasn't actually that active in Mafia II. I made a few good posts, but that's it. Most of what I said was 'I'm trying to analyse stuff BRB' and then the mafia killed me. Here, I'm taking fewer notes but keeping up (for some definition of keeping up).

And once again, the analysis I was hoping to post (again, regarding Joth) has been upturned and shot up by events on the last page (again, regarding Joth). So here's what I observed:

Theorel's points about Joth in post 596
Glooble's points about Joth in post 627

These two seemed a bit strange. At the time, Joth was in a little danger - not much, but enough for say scum to be concerned. And both of these made what seemed to me to be a slightly forced 'I think he's town let's back off' post. Like they were covering for scum to some degree. Of course, that relies on Joth being scum, but their defence still seems a little forced.

And then we got the post that made me drop my jaw and almost flip tables. Post 699, where Joth reciprocates that and announces, pretty out of the blue, he has town reads on the two of them.

I honestly don't know what to make of it all. It's too obvious if they're scum. It's possible they're masons, but generally, I just found it all a bit disconcerting.

Now regarding Joth's claim. It's bad, but it's not something we should be fussing about too much over. It shouldn't affect if we want to lynch him or not. We know at worst we don't lose a power role, but does his claim affect his chance of being scum? If he's scum, it could be a tactical decoy move, hoping people will just leave him as is (his 'should I self vote' questioning also follows this, town never benefits from selfvoting, mafia can if it ends a day early): So, answer: No). But if he's town, it could just be an honest mistake. Something I'd believe more if he hadn't gone through Mafia II and seemed a reasonably competent player there.

That's it for my thoughts on Joth. I'll finish up for the day by posting my thoughts on everyone else, in a bit.

[Galzria]

I don't like this play by J at all. I am totally confused by it. I feel more and more that he's town, but he's made his case in such a frustrating way, I don't feel comfortable unvoting him.

J, if you are town, your meltdown seems deja-vu for me. Go figure. I would like to learn from my mistakes, and have tried to do so in this game. I can't believe you would walk into the same pitfalls so easily, so I have to view your actions with a skeptical eye.

I don't "have it out" for you, but unlike the other two people that I voted for... What do you want me to do? They don't check out "clean" in my book, but at least they gave me a reason to unvote. So I'm stuck. I'm somewhere I don't believe I should be (if mafia hunting), but have no justifiable reason to back down.

So for now, I stand by my vote. It's a coinflip in my mind, and I don't know that I can improve that on anybody else (maybe Pops? Maybe Axxle? (I don't like Axxle's timing on either bandwagon, fwiw)).

[O]

I'd like to request a 6 page volume by Galzria on the issue, otherwise I can't really settle my thoughts.

[Galzria]

I'd like to request a 6 page volume by Galzria on the issue, otherwise I can't really settle my thoughts.

You'll settle for what I gave you, and you'll like it.

[Green Opal]

Apologies to all for my mad lurking skills. I'm hoping that the posts I do manage to make can have enough impact to stop me from disappearing completely in the shuffle.
Nothing in the recent jonah fiasco has shifted any of my suspicion. The vanilla town call seems like such a smokescreen, but you've already explained your position on that to the point of calling it a mistake, so I'm mostly going to disregard it.

[Dsell]

So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)

My gosh, jo, you are making A LOT of mistakes. Are you saying you didn't even MEAN to claim VT and only realized it when it was pointed out to you? Wow. Wow wow. This suggests really, and I mean REALLY sloppy play. Did you totally ignore my urging yesterday that you play a little smarter, censor yourself a little more? You must understand when I seriously worry that this is a mafia play. It's actually pretty hard for me to believe that claiming VT was a total accident.

I am so torn here. I really want to say "Come on guys, isn't it obvious that this is just a really huge townie mistake that we just have to live with??" But...I must say your recent posts are not making me any more comfortable. I 100% agree with Robz that asking first is a terrible, terrible idea.

And then after threatening to self-vote (another TERRIBLE move for the town) got a bad reaction, you quickly backed away and noooow you have to leave. You are all over the place, man.

More thoughts soon.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Anyone else who prematurely roleclaims meets my holy wrath.  Joth might meet my holy wrath anyway.  I'm a pretty fundamentalist lpayer and roleclaiming is fundamentally bad.

So all roleclaiming is bad, or just when it is premature? Can you tell me why you hold this viewpoint?

[Robz888]

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

I can much more easily believe that he lied and claimed VT as mafia, than he would mistakenly say that with only 4 votes against him and put the town in a worse spot. He's played this game before.

Also, I really don't like the asking about voting for himself thing at all. I didn't like it when TINAS did it in MI, either, and it was the major reason I voted for him. To be fair, we were wrong about TINAS--but TINAS was lying about his role. It was a crazy move that he pulled off, but Jo has a much different personality (everyone has a much different personality than TINAS), so I don't think that's the case here.

Add in that he's walking away from the argument now, it doesn't at all seem to me like something townie Jo would do. (I know he has to leave in real life, but he could have said something like "To be defiantly continued!")

I'm not at all certain that he's mafia, but he has a much better case against him than anybody else.

[Glooble]

Tables, I never said I thought jo was innocent. I don't have time to go look for quotes right now, but I'm pretty sure I've consistently said he was slightly suspicious, just not moreso than a lot of other people.

For the record, his crazy erratic play has made me less suspicious of him. He doesn't strike me as the type to play scum with that particular strategy.

I have to sign off for a bit. Might be on before bed.

[Voltgloss]

Green Opal, Captain_Frisk, and theorel found themselves investigating the Estate's Workshop.  Digging through the various tools, workbenches, and blueprints, Captain_Frisk suddenly had an idea.  "If we can't find the portcullis key, maybe we can MAKE one!  There have to be sufficient tools here to craft SOMETHING that will turn that wretched lock, right?"

Green Opal and theorel looked at each other, then shrugged.  It was as good an idea as any.  They spent thirty minutes gathering tools, then pooled what they'd found in the center of the Workshop.

• Green Opal had gathered an assorted array of trowels, shovels, and spades.
• theorel brought six large bags of potting soil.
• Captain_Frisk had thirty seed packets.

They looked at the tools, then at each other, then at the tools again.

And birds chirped at them from the Gardens outside.

Vote Count 1-8

Robz888 (1) - SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (3) - Insomniac, O, Grujah
Grujah (3) - theorel, Glooble, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Green Opal, Galzria, Tables, Axxle, Robz888
Dsell (1) - Captain_Frisk
Glooble (1) - popsofctown

Not Voting {1} - Dsell

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Tables]

(Post being made immediately after my last one)

Short analysis on everyone. Don't take my town/scum reads too far, nobody has gotten far enough along either direction I want to condem them or rush to their defence if they were under fire.
Oh, and I'm probably going to use male pronouns for everyone. Apologies if this is incorrect for anyone.

Galzria: Was somewhat distracting early, which was very different from his style (as mafia) in II. I don't have a lot else on him, which suggests there's been nothing I've found really suspicious. I actually have a few notes on him justifying his choices, which is generall good (367, 563). Overall, slight town read.

DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.

Imsomniac: Considering there's been some discussion regarding him lately, I don't have much on him from beyond the start of the game. What I do have doesn't really stick out to me at all. He has one or two good posts I've noted (117). No significant read yet.

Robz: He's playing very similarly to how he did in Mafia II, but also differently. He's made a few good analysis posts, and interestingly ripped apart on of Theorel's posts without being actually suspicious of Theorel (429). Robz, do you have any strong opinion on Theorel now? Slight town read.

Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.

O: Ugh... I stopped taking notes on him around page 10 for a bit, because he was just getting in the way. It's improved now, which is good. The notes I do have a pretty irrelevant in light of everything that's happened (things like, his random votes and stuff). I have yet to see any really good analysis from him.

Axxle: We all saw my scheme regarding Axxle early game, and despite explaining it was only that pretty early, it still somehow managed to generate some discussion about 18 pages later. Go figure. Axxle's been playing a very pro-town game, he linked very quickly to a useful article (97), he's been trying to keep discussion on track and not waste our precious time (133), he even did a very good thing of turning my early statement about him around to generate discussion. After the early game, he's said less, but what he has said I've found was generally useful and on topic. I've noted a few people being suspicious of him, but I haven't seen them really give reasons - which is a shame. Overall, Axxle is still my strongest town read.

Theorel: The main thing that's caught my eye is his defending of Joth (596, 609), which I've already pointed out. His early posts didn't strike me as overly town or overly mafia. Really, it's the defending Joth that's really stuck out to me. Overall I have a slight scum read, but it's going to depend a lot on what/if Joth flips when he's lynched.

Glooble: I have nothing on him at all before post 627. In his posts (especially 663) the main thing I take offence with is the misuse of statistics. In particular, the slippery slope argument he seemed to follow in that there's likely statistically at least one scum in (whichever bandwagon it was I can't remember), therefore, we should try and ferret out the one scum in that bandwagon. As town, we have no way to really know if the four (or whatever) people on that wagon are town or scum, and that wagon existing doesn't really make it more likely there's a scum on it. As mafia of course, he'd know perfectly well there was (no) scum on it, and that'd make it a very good place to divert attention to. He also seems to defend Joth in a deflective sort of way, which I dislike. Overall, a somewhat scum read.

Popsofctown: Ugh. Pops, you're being extremely difficult this game. One part of me thinks you're trying to be 'interesting' so people don't want to kill you, just want you to stick around and see what you do for a while. The other part of me thinks you're playing a deep town game even I don't properly understand. The posts you've actually made I cared to record have been good, and you've defended your opinions well (234, 469, 669). I think I have a slight town read from you... but I honestly don't really know.

Tables: Hi.

Grujah: Early on, I have that Grujah was making a lot of 'information, not analysis' type posts (330 especially). Since then he picked up on one part of Joth's behaviour, but that's about all I have that he did. Also voting with no reason, on a bandwagon no less (383). No strong read, but I have my eye on him. Which I guess means a slight Scum read?

Joth: I've already laid down my views on him. It's the flip-flopping behavior after Grujah's accusation, and the mafia viewpoint things that disturbed me to start, and this recent behaviour hasn't helped much. Scum read.

SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.

Green Opal: I have basically nothing noted about him. Only that he was the first one to vote Joth recently, although the 2nd and 3rd votes (Galzria and me respectively) were given for totally different reasons. The 4th was Axxle for his vanilla claim. No real read.


And that's everything I've thought so far. Now to reread the probably 50 new posts which occured while I was typing.
(Pre post edit: Oh it's 'only' 16)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

UNVOTE
VOTE: JOTHEONAH (cause I want to see what happens at 6 votes)

[Glooble]

Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

[Tables]

Tables, I never said I thought jo was innocent. I don't have time to go look for quotes right now, but I'm pretty sure I've consistently said he was slightly suspicious, just not moreso than a lot of other people.

For the record, his crazy erratic play has made me less suspicious of him. He doesn't strike me as the type to play scum with that particular strategy.

I have to sign off for a bit. Might be on before bed.

This is exactly the kind of thing I was suspicious of you for before. You aren't defending him, I agree. You're deflecting discussion from him. Last time, I quote:

...
jotheonah: SO far his play looks like town play to me, especially seeing as coming off the train wreck that was Mafia II changing up his play style is a sensible move. He looks the tiniest bit scummy to me, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
...

(Emphasis mine)

Both times, you haven't defended him, but you've tried to paint him indirectly in a positive light. This time, you've just said he strikes you as someone who wouldn't play like this as scum. It's not the fact you're defending him that would make me suspicious, it's the way you're doing it.

Also, saying you think he's less suspicious than a lot of people is pretty similar to saying you think he's more likely town. You're meddling with your words in a political-spin-story kind of way, and I'm not liking it.

Unvote: Jotheohan We don't want to be at 6 votes just yet.

[Dsell]

DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.

I voted for jo when everyone was trolling but unvoted pretty soon after.

Still thinking about whether to vote.

P-p edit: up to six now...

Uh..another p-p edit: down to five now.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.  ...

(emphasis mine)

LOL.  #599 had strange reasons for my voting?  Robz was the first person that I actually came to some reasonable (by my newb standards) suspicions of, so I put my vote where my opinion was.  Sorry my post didn't make that clear.

Can't wait to see what you think of my reasons for the vote change at 732.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Tables - why do you (specifically) believe we don't want to be at 6 votes right now?

[Tables]

Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

[Tables]

Alright, and true to my style of appearing, posting while I'm here and taking off, it's gone Midnight here so *whoosh*

Expect another reply... uh, it's board games day tomorrow... maybe not for another 36 hours or something. Man. That's even more reason for my vote to be removed. I recommend we don't end the day in the meantime unless it seems like an absolutely good idea. A longer day phase is never bad for the town.

[O]

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

I don't really understand how a not-3-weeks lynch is bad for town

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

I don't really understand how a not-3-weeks lynch is bad for town

iPhone posting here:

I'll get back to your other comment later because you made a very good point, but I am with tables

This doesn't mean I'm in favor of using the full 3 weeks, just using more than 36 hours. Too close to deadline, and we suffer from deadline pressure

Not enough time and we give up good analysis time.

[Dsell]

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

(Bold emphasis mine)

So, jo, you started the game thinking that you could say anything, and then you said something stupid. It got you into some trouble, so you got defensive and realized you had better not say things that would get you into trouble, right? You said this in the same breath that you revealed your role, which is an incredibly stupid move as town.
I've decided that I do. not. buy. this. Either you are mafia or you are lying about thinking things through. Why do I think it's the first and not the second? Because I am not convinced that a thinking "debater" put on defense would make the ridiculously stupid proposal of voting for yourself. After rereading some of these posts, I strongly feel that we are getting played.

Vote: jotheonah

I do have a question for pops: do you still maintain that there is mafia riding this bandwagon? If indeed jotheonah is just an incredibly stupid townie, your analysis could actually prove really helpful.

[Dsell]

The point about the deadlines is a good one but we already have thirty pages of this game. Perhaps not all of it is good for analysis, but that is still a TON.

[Glooble]

Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

Yes. Any arbitrarily grabbed group of five likely contains one Mafia. And on day one, when we have next to no information, that seemed like as good a place for me to start as any. At this point, that's looking like less of a good idea, but it lead me to suspect Gru, and he still looks scummy to me.

re: my defense of Jo. I do have an acquaintance with him in real life, which it's impossible for me to remove from my read on him in this game. But because I know him as well as I do, I feel confident saying "I think if he were trying to con us, he would not do it like this." Do what you will with that. I don't think he's scum, but I'm not at all certain.

Ok, I'm done defending myself against you now. I respect your

[Glooble]

that posted before it was finished. not sure why. I meant to say something to the effect of "I respect your opinion and understand why I'm coming off as scummy to you, but hopefully as I start to find my footing and figure out this game you'll start to see me as a valuable member of the team." I've tied to avoid the "newbie defense" but it's the truth here - I did something that seemed like a good idea to me, you pointed out that it was dumb, and now that I've thought about it, I agree with you. But dumb town play does not equal scum play.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, well tonite is clearly not going to be a repeat of last night, in terms of volume, so I'm going to bed.  Have fun everyone.

[Insomniac]

I'm pretty sure jotheonah is just a bad townie, if he was mafia it would have benefited him infinitely more to roleclaim a power role as we have no guarantees that there aren't duplicate roles so a counter-claim at this point would mean nothing.

Thusly I still do not think I will vote jotheonah unless some new light comes up. Assuming he is a VT I don't believe we learn enough information going into day 2 off of that.

[Grujah]

I feel like I need to defend here before I go to sleep.

I understand that me Bandwagoning pops with little explanation is hold against me; it was bad play. I was thrown off at first with pops inital erratic play, "He's town, leave him" got to me, and Galz said "Vote pops; I'd like to see what happen", And I was thinking "I didn't like that last action of his at all, I'd like to see what happens with more votes on him.. so, I vote". 


But why is me noticing "we, townies" construction held against me? Theo takes this so far that he even makes a elaborated post just about it. I noticed it. It struck me as odd, weird phrasing, as if someone is "trying to hard". Never did I hold it hard against him. His "Yeah, thats right, you should be more suspicious of me" reaction and his "I'm SCUM!" (jokingly or not) struck me way harder.

So here's what I observed:

Theorel's points about Joth in post 596
Glooble's points about Joth in post 627

These two seemed a bit strange. At the time, Joth was in a little danger - not much, but enough for say scum to be concerned. And both of these made what seemed to me to be a slightly forced 'I think he's town let's back off' post. Like they were covering for scum to some degree.

Started noticing this too. Jo later (before your post, i think) also gets "town reads" on both of them ("I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble"). They back up each other (Gloob says something like "theo makes sense to me"). Then all three, in a row, voting the same.

Gloob's taking arbitrary group of few players and proclaiming that there is high chance they are mafia was dumb, also I don't get how he skips Tables on account that he is "overwhelmed with RL/enormity of thread" while other do get a visit.

Unvote

[Dsell]

Tables: There are 15 players. Five of those players (Green Opal, me, SFS, Grujah, theorel) are relatively new to the game. Given that there are 2 -4 scum (Mafia or Witch) and role PMs are sent out randomly, it seems unlikely to me that none of the five new players are Mafia. That is what I meant by "statistically". I never used that term in reference to the bandwagon. Sorry if that was confusing. Also sorry I don't know enough math to give actual probabilities - if someone who does would like to weigh in, be my guest.

By this logic, shouldn't any arbitrarily grabbed group of 5 be likely to contain one mafia? In which case, why don't we just grab every possibly group of 5 players and conclude there's at least one scum in all of them? Obviously, you can see the problem here. It's likely that there's at least one scum among the 5 new players, (if we assume there are 3 scum, it's a 74%ish chance), but the 5 new players, or any group of 5 players selected in any way like that isn't a good group to look at. There's a better than one in four chance you're overanalysing a group with no scum in it for no good reason, and in fact a... uh, good chance there's at least two.

TL;DR assuming there's at least or even exactly one mafia among the new players is fallicious at best, and malicious at worst.

SFS: It's one away from... wait, no, it's 2 away from lynch. Either way, it's too close to us lynching. Someone could 'accidentally' put an extra vote on, ending the day early on a lynch we're not really decided on. There's no reason for the day to be ended yet, so I've removed my vote.

Yes. Any arbitrarily grabbed group of five likely contains one Mafia. And on day one, when we have next to no information, that seemed like as good a place for me to start as any. At this point, that's looking like less of a good idea, but it lead me to suspect Gru, and he still looks scummy to me.

I try to avoid analysis like all of this because if you look at any single person, the odds are that they're not mafia. Of course if you look at a group of 10 the odds are vastly higher. It's like the problem of the coin in "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead." You can see the unlikelihood of flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads every time, but we should not be surprised that any single one turned up heads: there was a 50% chance of that result.

Anyway I'm not the best at stats but this all seems rather moot to me. Because with any five players, there might be a mafia or there might not.

Pre-post edit: this applies to Grujah's post too.

[Grujah]

Where did I use that logic?

[Galzria]

@Grujah:

Not much to say, but need to clarify that I did NOT say "Vote Pops: Let's see what happens". I said "I'M going to vote Pops, and see what happens", AND, this is 1 post after I laid out my reasons for that vote.

[Dsell]

@Grujah I am agreeing with your last paragraph, basically.

[Galzria]

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

The "above" reasons were two posts prior (someone snuck in between).

[Axxle]

I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early.  That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.

[Axxle]

well, not completely, but significantly.

[Grujah]

@Galz
I don't get the big difference, that's what I mean, maybe it came out wrong but it seems to me both of our "paraphrasings" have the same meaning.
And of course you gave reasons.

[Galzria]

@Galz
I don't get the big difference, that's what I mean, maybe it came out wrong but it seems to me both of our "paraphrasings" have the same meaning.
And of course you gave reasons.

It's substantially different! In the first (not accurate) case, I sound like I'm encouraging others to join in. In the second (accurate) case, I'm stating why I, and I alone am choosing to do something. To look back and say "Well, Galz said to, and his ideas sounded good" is hugely misleading. I absolutely did not say you should as well. Thinking my ideas are good, that's all fine and dandy. Saying I encouraged something I didn't, I take issue with.

[Galzria]

Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you paraphrased me as meaning. It sounds like you're suggesting I gave a command, or encouraged people to follow suit. If that's not what you meant, fine. But if it is, I wanted to clarify, since it's how your paraphrasing SOUNDED to me.

[Grujah]

O yeah, I get it now. I wrote, exactly:
"Vote pops; I'd like to see what happen".

Yeah, it sounds like it is in grammatical imperative. And it is, but wasn't meant as one.
My intention was for it to mean "I vote pops; I'd like to see what happens" or "Voting pops; I'd like to see what happens", and not a command.

[Galzria]

I would like some opinions if people don't mind:

Early on, I was asking most everyone for their thoughts on an early lynch D1 vs stringing it out to draw out more potential information. Everybody I asked was happy and content to give me their feelings, and I can now refer back to that given the situation that we're in. There was, however, one person who have off the feeling of distinctly not liking my question, and disregarded it as useless theory chatter: Axxle.

Now here we are. Axxle has been #5, and #4 on two different bandwagons. This second one is close to critical, but stalling, and we get this gem from him:

"I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early." (post #754).

I'm not happy with my vote on J. The play has been too terrible to be Mafia. But I've had my eye on Axxle ever since he appeared jumpy early, and refused to be scum hunted (actively discouraged the gathering of information).

So, to reduce mass on J, and because this honestly feels better, UNVOTE - VOTE:AXXLE

[O]

There really is no such thing as "too terrible to be mafia".

[theorel]

This post is only in reference to the topic of the moment: jotheonah.

This is in reference to Axxle's question: why not wanting the day to end early?  Because I don't believe a full 8 town members will agree to lynch someone in quick order.  That's 2/3 of the town agreeing to lynch someone on flimsy evidence and poor defense.  I don't think a bandwagon full of townies will naturally develop over the course of two days.  If it's developed its unnatural, which means that there's mafia in there somewhere.  A lynch composed of townies will develop slowly a vote here or there, after another day it may pick up another vote, etc.  That's my opinion, you may disagree that's fine.  I disagree with a lot of your opinions and a lot of pops' opinions.

So, I think jotheonah is innocent because mafia is voting for him.  He could be witch...since mafia has no way of knowing who that is.  Could also explain his survivalist tendencies.  But Witch will be much harder to detect, I'm not really interested in a witch-hunt especially when one may not even exist.  I'm much more interested in mafia, because they're going to give us information we can actually use, like trying to pull together bandwagons of town.

Pressure is totally irrelevant.  We have gotten no information out of jotheonah in this bandwagon, bandwagons will never give you information about the person being attacked.  What it does is give us information about is everybody else.  So, whatever you think jo's shown you you should disregard.  You should look around at everyone else, just as the push on pops got us nothing from pops (except that he's smart enough to keep quiet until it blows over).  So suggesting the possibility of an early lynch for pressure is IMO poor town play.  It reads to me like you didn't understand the strategy articles you linked to before.

Finally, we could kill jo to find out he's town, or we could just accept that townie bandwagons are slower than this, and recognize he's town before we kill him.  Then we can look at the 6(or 7 if you like) votes he's gotten say "there's probably 2 mafia there", and have a 1/3 chance of hitting a mafia.  That's way better than the 1/14 chance that jo's mafia, and the astronomically small chance that 7 townies have all of their own accord said "that's the mafia right there yessir".  So, if you're mafia voting for jo, well your being suspicious.  If you're townie voting for jo, you should be saying "who's pulling my strings."  "Who am I listening to" and "Why am I not being skeptical of all these voices, when I know some of them are mafia".  Keep in mind that for the mafia, there is no chance that jo is one of them.  They already know he's town, and they already know they want to lynch him.  They're just trying to convince you.

[O]

This post is only in reference to the topic of the moment: jotheonah.

This is in reference to Axxle's question: why not wanting the day to end early?  Because I don't believe a full 8 town members will agree to lynch someone in quick order.  That's 2/3 of the town agreeing to lynch someone on flimsy evidence and poor defense.  I don't think a bandwagon full of townies will naturally develop over the course of two days.  If it's developed its unnatural, which means that there's mafia in there somewhere.  A lynch composed of townies will develop slowly a vote here or there, after another day it may pick up another vote, etc.  That's my opinion, you may disagree that's fine.  I disagree with a lot of your opinions and a lot of pops' opinions.

So, I think jotheonah is innocent because mafia is voting for him.  He could be witch...since mafia has no way of knowing who that is.  Could also explain his survivalist tendencies.  But Witch will be much harder to detect, I'm not really interested in a witch-hunt especially when one may not even exist.  I'm much more interested in mafia, because they're going to give us information we can actually use, like trying to pull together bandwagons of town.

Pressure is totally irrelevant.  We have gotten no information out of jotheonah in this bandwagon, bandwagons will never give you information about the person being attacked.  What it does is give us information about is everybody else.  So, whatever you think jo's shown you you should disregard.  You should look around at everyone else, just as the push on pops got us nothing from pops (except that he's smart enough to keep quiet until it blows over).  So suggesting the possibility of an early lynch for pressure is IMO poor town play.  It reads to me like you didn't understand the strategy articles you linked to before.

Finally, we could kill jo to find out he's town, or we could just accept that townie bandwagons are slower than this, and recognize he's town before we kill him.  Then we can look at the 6(or 7 if you like) votes he's gotten say "there's probably 2 mafia there", and have a 1/3 chance of hitting a mafia.  That's way better than the 1/14 chance that jo's mafia, and the astronomically small chance that 7 townies have all of their own accord said "that's the mafia right there yessir".  So, if you're mafia voting for jo, well your being suspicious.  If you're townie voting for jo, you should be saying "who's pulling my strings."  "Who am I listening to" and "Why am I not being skeptical of all these voices, when I know some of them are mafia".  Keep in mind that for the mafia, there is no chance that jo is one of them.  They already know he's town, and they already know they want to lynch him.  They're just trying to convince you.

Yea, lets wait until we get solid evidence and even poorer defense..

Owait, it's day one.

note I actually haven't voted for J though; I don't believe he's mafia, I just don't like your logic either.

[theorel]

Yea, lets wait until we get solid evidence and even poorer defense..

Owait, it's day one.

note I actually haven't voted for J though; I don't believe he's mafia, I just don't like your logic either.

Mafia may or may not have poor defense, as Galz noted previously (in his "non-defense" to my general pops-bandwagon accusation), and I noted there, the defense has no value, regardless of its quality.

So, do you think that a pure townie-driven bandwagon will develop quickly?  Or do you think it's illogical that the assumed mafia involvement indicates a non-mafia target?  I'm just curious what of my logic you dislike.

[Galzria]

@ Theorel:

What are your thoughts ok my post #760?

[Robz888]

Tables, my own thoughts very closely mirror yours.

(Post being made immediately after my last one)

Short analysis on everyone. Don't take my town/scum reads too far, nobody has gotten far enough along either direction I want to condem them or rush to their defence if they were under fire.
Oh, and I'm probably going to use male pronouns for everyone. Apologies if this is incorrect for anyone.

Galzria: Was somewhat distracting early, which was very different from his style (as mafia) in II. I don't have a lot else on him, which suggests there's been nothing I've found really suspicious. I actually have a few notes on him justifying his choices, which is generall good (367, 563). Overall, slight town read.

DSell: All I have on him is that he voted Joth with no reason early in the game. No 'good' or 'bad' posts or the like. No really significant read either way.

Imsomniac: Considering there's been some discussion regarding him lately, I don't have much on him from beyond the start of the game. What I do have doesn't really stick out to me at all. He has one or two good posts I've noted (117). No significant read yet.

Robz: He's playing very similarly to how he did in Mafia II, but also differently. He's made a few good analysis posts, and interestingly ripped apart on of Theorel's posts without being actually suspicious of Theorel (429). Robz, do you have any strong opinion on Theorel now? Slight town read.

Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.

O: Ugh... I stopped taking notes on him around page 10 for a bit, because he was just getting in the way. It's improved now, which is good. The notes I do have a pretty irrelevant in light of everything that's happened (things like, his random votes and stuff). I have yet to see any really good analysis from him.

Axxle: We all saw my scheme regarding Axxle early game, and despite explaining it was only that pretty early, it still somehow managed to generate some discussion about 18 pages later. Go figure. Axxle's been playing a very pro-town game, he linked very quickly to a useful article (97), he's been trying to keep discussion on track and not waste our precious time (133), he even did a very good thing of turning my early statement about him around to generate discussion. After the early game, he's said less, but what he has said I've found was generally useful and on topic. I've noted a few people being suspicious of him, but I haven't seen them really give reasons - which is a shame. Overall, Axxle is still my strongest town read.

Theorel: The main thing that's caught my eye is his defending of Joth (596, 609), which I've already pointed out. His early posts didn't strike me as overly town or overly mafia. Really, it's the defending Joth that's really stuck out to me. Overall I have a slight scum read, but it's going to depend a lot on what/if Joth flips when he's lynched.

Glooble: I have nothing on him at all before post 627. In his posts (especially 663) the main thing I take offence with is the misuse of statistics. In particular, the slippery slope argument he seemed to follow in that there's likely statistically at least one scum in (whichever bandwagon it was I can't remember), therefore, we should try and ferret out the one scum in that bandwagon. As town, we have no way to really know if the four (or whatever) people on that wagon are town or scum, and that wagon existing doesn't really make it more likely there's a scum on it. As mafia of course, he'd know perfectly well there was (no) scum on it, and that'd make it a very good place to divert attention to. He also seems to defend Joth in a deflective sort of way, which I dislike. Overall, a somewhat scum read.

Popsofctown: Ugh. Pops, you're being extremely difficult this game. One part of me thinks you're trying to be 'interesting' so people don't want to kill you, just want you to stick around and see what you do for a while. The other part of me thinks you're playing a deep town game even I don't properly understand. The posts you've actually made I cared to record have been good, and you've defended your opinions well (234, 469, 669). I think I have a slight town read from you... but I honestly don't really know.

Tables: Hi.

Grujah: Early on, I have that Grujah was making a lot of 'information, not analysis' type posts (330 especially). Since then he picked up on one part of Joth's behaviour, but that's about all I have that he did. Also voting with no reason, on a bandwagon no less (383). No strong read, but I have my eye on him. Which I guess means a slight Scum read?

Joth: I've already laid down my views on him. It's the flip-flopping behavior after Grujah's accusation, and the mafia viewpoint things that disturbed me to start, and this recent behaviour hasn't helped much. Scum read.

SwitchedFromStarcraft: The posts I have highlighted from him seem... erratic. Some are for strange voting reasons (599), some for making a long information not analysis post (506), and some for... actually, that's all the posts of his I have recorded. Which isn't particularly good. He hasn't really stood out to me, but I've also noted how often he reminds us he's a newbie. Which means I-don't-even-know-what.

Green Opal: I have basically nothing noted about him. Only that he was the first one to vote Joth recently, although the 2nd and 3rd votes (Galzria and me respectively) were given for totally different reasons. The 4th was Axxle for his vanilla claim. No real read.


And that's everything I've thought so far. Now to reread the probably 50 new posts which occured while I was typing.
(Pre post edit: Oh it's 'only' 16)

As you know, Theorel had a post that was scummy to me (in the way I define scummy), and the Jo defending is a little odd now. But since then he hasn't come across more scummy, at least not in a way I noticed. I could have missed something. I sort of lost track of Theorel, as I realized how badly I was ignoring Green Opal and Glooble. I find Glooble slightly scummy for the same reasons as you. Nothing on Green Opal. Grujah is also a bit of a headache here, with the bandwagoning without explanation and the "impressionable" comment. I HATE statements like that.

SFS really threw me for a loop with his early naivety, and then it developed into this much more robust yet erratic posting. SO, that put me on my guard.

Insomniac seems EXACTLY the same as MII to me (which would slightly acquit him). Galzria I can never tell about. He just always reads town to me, even when I know better.

I wasn't quote so bothered by Pops--I'm still willing to bet there is a method to his madness, and it will pay off later if he is still alive. I couldn't see him behaving this way if he were mafia. I wouldn't want to lynch him for now.

I want to make sure I keep track of CF and Dsell, who have both posted on the somewhat more substantial side of mafia-middleground, without being quite as vocal or meaningful as a few others.

Who does that leave? Oh, Axxle and you. Both of whom I am inclined to trust for now, though my feelings about Axxle went really up and down in MI (and eventually all the way down, as he was indeed mafia). Your thoughts seem to be so much on the same page as me that I can't help but think you're town.

Oh, and Jo. Who I voted for, for the reasons I gave. I have an easier time believing he said those couple things as a mafia rather than as a townie. Thus my vote.

Pre-post edit: And, I don't agree with Thoerel's latest at all. We got a lot of info out of Jo. He came out as VT and asked--asked, mind you--if he should kill himself. A mounting bandwagon caused him to crack, for better or worse.

[Axxle]

@Theorel: We did get information out of him with the bandwagon:

A similar philosophy applies to being the victim of a lynch.  While it does hurt to be the victim of a lynch, you can easily have an overall positive impact on the game as a lynch victim. 

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

for starters.

refused to be scum hunted (actively discouraged the gathering of information).

When did that happen? I refuse to be accused of actively discouraging information gathering.  But if you're referring to the whole "Theory not game" talk then I have nothing more to say except that I don't consider it useful information.

[theorel]

@Galz:
I agree.  I think Axxle is suspicious...he was the most suspicious to me of Pops' voters in the first read-through (as noted in my immediate post). but went down in suspicion on a reread. 

Obviously from my previous post I take issue with Axxle's desire to lynch early, and his desire to apply pressure in general.  But I won't lynch him for disagreeing with me on how to play.  I do disagree that jo's play is "too terrible to be mafia".  As noted, I think all defensive posts are essentially null when hunting for mafia, so jo's posts are as well. 

In fact given the above: I would like to hear from O and Axxle, since you guys seem to be all for an early end to Day 1.  Why the rush?  I've explained why I think early lynch is bad: (i.e. it's very probably mafia-driven (i'd say like 90%), so why not stop before we lynch a townie, and just pretend like it already happened?)  Why do you think an early lynch is good.  Do you really think that 8 townies will hit mafia in 10 hours?  Do you really think that defensive posts have merit as scum-tells?

Pre-edit: directed at Galz's post to me from 2-back at this point.

[Galzria]

I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early.  That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.

Apparently those "theory" issues that you discouraged people taking a stance on DID matter to you. Just not until a time arose that it benefited you to talk about them. From post  #100 to #200, those were exactly the feelings and stances that I was asking about, that you wrote off as irrelevant.

[theorel]

given the two replies between...I think something should be said re: jotheonah cracked which gave us info:

I disagree...and I will site: Day 1 pressure recipients: TINAS cracked (town), Morgrim cracked (town), Galz cracked (town).  jo cracked...really, you really think that's mafia?

I guess that must be the main difference between us, I see value in the discussion around jo (it's value-rich), you see value in the mad ravings of a nearly dead-man (jo).  Now, he cracked pretty easy, but so did morgrim.  IMO This is EXACTLY what mafia wants. 

So, for all the jo voters, IMO either you're mafia, or you're listening to what they want you to hear.

[Galzria]

@Insomniac

"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"

Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.

An example of exactly that question that you then wrote off as useless theory talk.

[theorel]

And I really have to go to bed.  I'll review this all tomorrow...as pops noted earlier, jo's bandwagon is much richer with info than his was (mostly because jo gave the mafia an excuse to jump all over him).

[Dsell]

The play has been too terrible to be Mafia.

The problem with this is that I don't think jotheonah is actually a terrible player. It's definitely looked like a series of blunders, but the more I read things like this...

Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.

...the more I believe he thinks he is in control of his game. So on that front I agree with Robz and, I guess, O.

[Galzria]

Anyway Axxle, not much benefit debating you, I'll never convince you. I am interested inn other  people's thoughts on my post #760. The "early discouragement", as I mentioned, is between posts #100 and #200, for reference.

[Axxle]

@Insomniac

"It seems to me that the longer day 1 is drawn out, the more it helps the town"

Could you elaborate? I'm inclined to disagree to an extent. I don't think we should lynch quickly, but confusion is the tool Mafia use best, and the longer the have to burrow their holes, make friends, and divide, confuse, and separate townies the better it'll be for them. People can be blind to their beliefs, and it becomes increasingly easy for Mafia to exploit that.

An example of exactly that question that you then wrote off as useless theory talk.

How exactly does discussing this help?  I fail to see it.  You learn what someone's general ideas of how to play the game are, but those aren't immutable.  And we'd just run around in circles talking about hypothetical situations.

And why are you disengaging my so quickly? Shouldn't you be trying to gauge me, or are you so convinced (or determined to paint me as mafia) that you aren't even trying to get a town read off me anymore?

[Galzria]

Please read paragraphs 1 and 2 from town perspective. I engaged in the first early with you, and with two other players. Now I'm moving on to paragraph 2:

 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=12228

[Galzria]

Also, going back and forth with you doesn't further my case. I'm not going to convince you of anything, and it simply drowns out the points that I AM making, which were stated previously. Town reading tit-for-tat gets turned off. I would rather my argument be considered for the merits I believe it has.

[Axxle]

I thought we were reengaging in the first part. I'm surprised you're that convinced.

[Dsell]

@Galz

I think simply we should use as much time as we need to lynch the right person. I don't think there is any particular length of time we ought to observe. I will say that being under no pressure from a deadline is nice. Tbh, the fact that everyone has voted already (and I presume that pretty much all of the current votes are serious) suggests to me that people are in fact ready to lynch...if enough people are thinking the same way as they are. While I agree with Theorel that many bandwagons are going to include some mafia, I also think it doesn't make sense to abandon your convictions because others agree with you.

[Dsell]

Although I don't really agree with Axxle when he says that lynching early takes the pressure off of a person. We have to lynch at some point and the person receiving votes doesn't know that it won't be him.

[Galzria]

I thought we were reengaging in the first part. I'm surprised you're that convinced.

Convinced? Well, I think more likely than where my vote was. At least this has a genuine feel to me. I wouldn't say you ARE Mafia, just that I like the odds now more than J.

[Dsell]

Sorry, *I don't agree with Axxle when he says that waiting to lynch takes the pressure off a person.

[Galzria]

Dsell, please note, I did NOT abandon convictions because people  agreed with me. I did because I'm not convinced J's play reads Mafia, and I'm getting a stronger overall vibe from Axxle. Please reread post #760.

[Dsell]

@Galz, I actually wasn't talking to you at all. I was speaking generally about abandoning convictions because "a lot of votes must mean this is a mafia-led bandwagon." I can see how you would think I talking about you, though.

[Galzria]

Also, @Dsell, if I didn't make it clear, I have no problems that Axxle WOULD feel that way about not waiting to lynch. I have a problem that he even mentions it now, when it's more likely to have an impact, AFTER having written off my attempts to gather that exact information from people early, so that they COULDN'T use it as leverage now.

[Galzria]

@Galz

I think simply we should use as much time as we need to lynch the right person. I don't think there is any particular length of time we ought to observe. I will say that being under no pressure from a deadline is nice. Tbh, the fact that everyone has voted already (and I presume that pretty much all of the current votes are serious) suggests to me that people are in fact ready to lynch...if enough people are thinking the same way as they are. While I agree with Theorel that many bandwagons are going to include some mafia, I also think it doesn't make sense to abandon your convictions because others agree with you.

Yeah, I did think you were talking to me.

[Dsell]

Oh, sorry sorry. Gosh I'm making a lot of typos.

@Galz, I actually wasn't talking about you at all. I was speaking generally about abandoning convictions because "a lot of votes must mean this is a mafia-led bandwagon." I can see how you would think I was talking about you, though.

I see your point now, though I was offering my input on post #760, like you asked for in #774.

[Galzria]

Oh, sorry sorry. Gosh I'm making a lot of typos.

@Galz, I actually wasn't talking about you at all. I was speaking generally about abandoning convictions because "a lot of votes must mean this is a mafia-led bandwagon." I can see how you would think I was talking about you, though.

I see your point now, though I was offering my input on post #760, like you asked for in #774.

no problem. Points taken.

[Voltgloss]

Galzria and Dsell were sitting on a bench in the Estate's Laboratory.  Galzria was staring glumly into space.  Dsell was flipping a Copper, announcing it each time.

flip "Heads."
flip "Heads."
flip "Heads."
flip "Heads I win."
flip "Heads."
flip "Heads."
flip "Again...."

G: "A weaker man might be moved to examine his faith."

flip "Heads."
flip "Heads."

G: "For nothing else at least in the law of probability..."

flip "Heads."
flip "Seventy-nine in a row."

Suddenly popsofctown loomed into view.  "Are you two going to do anything constructive??"

Dsell looked at him.  "What did you have in mind?  A short, blunt, human pyramid?"

Vote Count 1-9

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
Grujah (3) - theorel, Glooble, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Green Opal, Axxle, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell
Dsell (1) - Captain_Frisk
Glooble (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (1) - Galzria

Not Voting {2} - Tables, Grujah

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[popsofctown]

Joth's cocktail of VT and being a data mine of a wagon is enough for me to like it.  I think I might hammer it.  Not now though.  We've ever so much to discuss.

Axxle is one of the most scummy characters in the game so far for me.  His posts are very Information-Instead-of-Analysis and his recent post on the merits of short days versus long ones is no exception, I would have liked to hear more strong stances from him.

[Galzria]

It's so peaceful here at night... You almost forget there was a murder...

[O]

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.

[Galzria]

Rofl. Wrong game O.

[Robz888]

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.

Think you're barking up the wrong mafia thread, pal. This is the one where me and Galzria are alive. Way to rub it in.

[O]

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.

I give myself 0/10... dear god.

I guess I still can't delete that post.

[Galzria]

well.. 3 of us down. At least somehow we haven't lost a power role yet (unless you count the vigilante's *power*)

I hope I'm somewhat cleared: I did provide for a 50% chance of my own death, which is insane as mafia or SK.

I give myself 0/10... dear god.

I guess I still can't delete that post.

Nope. But I +1'd it for the laugh. So hey, free point.

[theorel]

Ah, mafia 3 started up again...maybe that will relieve some of the pressure on this thread.  Is that why there's less than 1 page of posts since I went to bed?

Anyways, I'll go reread some stuff before I say anything else, because there were a few posts there that I thought merited response before the jotheonah situation started getting so far out of hand.

[Captain_Frisk]

- If actually vanilla town - Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense as a vanilla townie - since this claim is already implied by everyone.  If it saves the lynch - and is true and later verified - all he's done is shifted the lynch target to another.  While someone pointed out that we're now more likely to hit power role, we are also more likely to hit mafia - as there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we lynch vanilla town.

You're logical and clearheaded enough that this willing misinterpretation is confusing. My point was that if mafia believe Jo's VT roleclaim (which they probably do if Jo is NOT mafia), then the mafia won't kill him and have a higher chance of hitting a power role.

O - I promised a response to this - and here it is.

Thank you.  I honestly hadn't considered the night kill aspect of things - I thought you were simply referring to the lynch kill - which also of course has a greater chance of killing town power role.

At the risk of theory vs. in game analysis - I had the impression that mafia didn't like having cleared townies around, and thus might kill him anyway?

I'm about to dig into the J bandwagon and will post on that shortly.

[Grujah]

Just because he claimed VT and wasn't lynch doesn't mean his "cleared as townie". Him surviving the night casts suspicion back at him, and gives, as O sad, bigger chances of mobs killing a PR.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok it seems that we all agree that J's VT roleclaim is poor town play.

That leaves us with the always fun wine in front of me debate....

Is J a townie who has snapped under accusation, or a calculating mafia disguising as a snapped townie?

Now that Galz and I are both dead as Vanilla Townies in that other game, a situation which I am more than partially responsible - I am comfortable saying that I am now acutely aware of how easy it is to assume that someone is just too savvy to do something so blatantly crazy - and be 100% wrong.


Who's currently voting:

Green Opal - Hasn't posted a whole lot - admits to lurking.  No read.
Axxle - Pops and Galzria seem to think that he's pretty scummy.  He also very quietly posted in favor of early lynching - #754
Robz888 - This seems early for a RobZ definite vote.  His arguments are the VT roleclaim + J asking if he should self vote.
SwitchedFromStarcraft - I'm not going to start this one up again - but he cast the 6th vote because he wanted to see what would happen
Dsell - I have my suspicions.

People who are on the fence (expressed willingness / interest in voting / suspicion

Pops - expressed willingness to hammer, but is suggesting wait and see
Tables - was in there with 6, but unvoted to keep things less risky I presume

People who (I think) have stated that they believe J to be VT:
O - still sitting on pops
Galzria - suspects Axxle
theorel - posts infrequent by high quality posts
Jotheonah - I'm pretty confident that he belongs in this bucket.
Insomniac

So that leaves 3 others in the "undecided" bucket

Grujah - didn't post much on the subject - seems unconvinced in the "bad play" argument
Glooble - has posted mild suspicions both ways toward the end of yesterday.
Captain_Frisk - reserving judgement

So - I think that sums up the current standings of folks.   Looking it over - I find my position solidifying.  Does anyone feel that I have stated their position incorrectly?

[theorel]

Alright, I'm gonna analyze what I can of those voting for jo. 

I'll start assigning % to my suspicion.  You have a default of 20% (since there's about a 1/5 chance of you being scum)

Green Opal: (1st vote)
Aside: Are you a he or a she?  Cause with the young witch avatar I always read your posts as female...anyways I'm gonna use gender-neutral he, because I think the gender-neutral pronouns are stupid (apologies to anyone who likes them, I'm fine with you, just not your pronouns).

He's quiet.  Very little read one way or the other.  Given around a 1/5 chance of being scum, I'm leaning towards not.  First vote on joth strikes me as near-meaningless.  You were fine with things where they were a little while ago (#725), how do you feel about the more recent developments?  Since then he's picked up 3 votes and lost 2.
(this was the first of the "we, townies" arguments that I argued against btw.)
Suspicion: Low (20%)

Galz: (2nd vote, 2nd unvote)
He seems helpful.  I find myself agreeing with most everything he says.  I think he's started up a lot of good discussions, and pushed for a couple bandwagons to gain information.  He's jumped off of bandwagons once he got the "information" he was looking for.  I think he's doing some pretty good and active scumhunting.  Whether in trying to generate theory discussion or in getting bandwagons rolling.  Also, he really seems minimally involved in any of the distracting play when I go through just his posts.  I don't see the "grandstanding" that Tables does.
Suspicion: Lower (15%)

Tables: (3rd vote, 1st unvote)
He's posted sparingly, but tried to get discussion rolling.  His accusation of jo involved the 354 post which called out the "we, townies" wordings...although he was referring to something else.  I don't personally find thinking along the lines of "mafia wants to do X" terribly scummy personally, but it's an argument I can respect.  I already argued the "we townies" point.  I disagree with that side of it...but I find Tables' reasoning sounder than Grujah's own post.  He does lots of analysis in his posts.  He has different opinions from me, but I know his opinions.  And he jumped off the bandwagon.
Suspicion: Low (18%)

Axxle: (4th vote)
His posts read town to me...but his actions (read votes) seem scummy.  Maybe he just really likes to apply pressure though?    He's been as high as 2 votes, but has had 4 total people vote for him over the course of the game.  Unfortunately when he was at 2 was amid a bunch of joke-votes, O wanted his opinion of children and puppies after all.  He really hates vanilla town claims, which is a position I don't understand.  So, all in all, I have trouble identifying whether he's mafia or just a different play-style.
Suspicion: Medium still (40%)

Robz: (5th vote)
I think the Robz Axxle interplay on my first two posts is interesting.  Axxle found the first suspicious the second exonerating, Robz was the opposite.  Now to be fair, I think they were both kind of suspicious, since I hadn't gotten into the swing of things yet, and was slightly frustrated at the thread length (and forum difficulties of the preceding afternoon).  Either mafia feeling out the crowd or town feeling out their own suspicions...probably stuck out to me most for being in the middle of it.  Anyways, moving on since this should really be a more minor point.

He reads townie for most of the thread...which means I'm assuming he just really believes that when people crack their mafia.  I offered some counter arguments (in the form of previously cracking people not being mafia).  As with Axxle, I feel like I just play a different game than Robz, which doesn't mean we have different motivations (or wincons if you like, pops).  So, he's in the same position as Axxle to me, talks town, but uses what I find as "mafia-reasoning" to make his vote.  It's a toss up between them to me.
Suspicion: Medium (40%)

SFS: (6th vote)
Lots of newbishness, some defensiveness, which he sites as defending himself, rather than defensiveness.  I don't see much mafia-like here, except the vote for jo.  "Wanting to see what happens" could be a good reason for a sixth vote (if you think it'll make townies jump ship, or bring a mafia out for vote 7) but disappearing afterwards is bad.  If you really think he's mafia say-so...if you don't you shouldn't be placing a 6th vote and disappearing.
Suspicion: Low-Medium (30%)

Dsell: (7th vote, 6th at the time)
First thing that strikes me, is that he claims to want to take time with the first vote, but he's pushing for jo at 6.  See #203: He wants extra time to comment on debate, rather too much than too little.  I guess he's referring to deadlines here...his position on day1 length seems conflicted though.
He pushed on pops' silence/crypticness but didn't vote for him.  He feels like he wanted the game to stay non-serious (#346)  He goes a little after SFS, a little after me, maybe gonna vote on Pops, feeling it out first?  #658 after the pops-wagon cools down he makes another claim that slower play is better.
He keeps dragging up jo's "I'm mafia" joke.  (#675 is the one where it struck me.  I think he's done it twice before?)
He was definitely a part of pushing the anti-jo based on his reactions.  Maybe starting somewhere around #726.  Robz, and SFS joined the bandwagon then and he joined finally at the end.
#743 he defends his change of position to go ahead and make it a quick-lynch.
#779 continuing his slight change of position from earlier.  using #780 to qualify it?

Well, as should be obvious by my starting to site posts here...I find him to be super-super suspicious.
It looks to me like he's trying to influence town behavior to direct them into lynching targets he "suspects" rather than trying to draw out information.  Could be a false read, but he's definitely comung up scummiest of all the jo voters.
Suspicion: High (~60%)

So, let's see where this one leads:
unvote
vote: DSell

Now to have a look over Capt_Frisk's post.

[theorel]

@Capt_Frisk: looks good to me.  I think I've made it pretty clear, but I find any quick bandwagons suspicious, and thus find their recipients less-so.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Capt_Frisk: looks good to me.  I think I've made it pretty clear, but I find any quick bandwagons suspicious, and thus find their recipients less-so.

Thanks.  I find it funny that we were both banging out monster posts at the same time, although clearly you spent more time on yours than I did on mine.  Churning through 800 comments is actually real work - I probably could have played 3 games of dominion.  I decided that I didn't need to site specific posts most of the time, and could go back and find them if someone got defensive, which then of course something interesting as well.

I'd really like to fix some typos though!

[theorel]

Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me.  One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect".  I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening.  And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.

[theorel]

ah, typos...yeah, I'd like to fix those.  although I think "when people crack their mafia" is funny...like some people sitting around a fireplace, cracking some mafia. 

When I started doing forum roleplaying I got into the habit of posting-then-editing.  I used to always use preview, and reread before I posted, even on forums.  Now I've gone so bad that I click send on emails, and go "oops, where's the edit button?"  Is this what it's like for the spell-check generation?

[Captain_Frisk]

Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me.  One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect".  I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening.  And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.

Be careful about DSell - O might call you a bad town for suspecting him, but I was happy to see someone else come to the same conclusion. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

STARTED IMMEDIATELY AFTER I READ #800

CF - I feel you stated my position correctly, and I got my answer.  What happened immediately when we got to 6 votes was that Tables took us back to 5 by unvoting.

@All - I would like opinions on the thoughts expressed by Galz in #760 (p31).  His (specific-to-that-post) idea about Axxle hasn't seemed to generate as much comment as I might have expected.

To come back to a now somewhat dated topic: I took Jo's (supposed) "screw up" in #703 a completely different way:  When he said "Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?", the question was specifically directed at Pops. I took this as an effort to draw out Pops on whether he would consider a hypothetical (and future) game decision as pro-town or not. Part of the reason I took it that was was because he started out so archly - I didn't read his "self-deprecation" as self-deprecation at all, but more like a "ok you mighty mafia-the-game expert, let me pin your ears back on this specific concept" that had some heat behind it.  I don't know how it morphed to "I'm gonna vote for myself".  Maybe I missed something.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...SFS: (6th vote)
Lots of newbishness, some defensiveness, which he sites as defending himself, rather than defensiveness.  I don't see much mafia-like here, except the vote for jo.  "Wanting to see what happens" could be a good reason for a sixth vote (if you think it'll make townies jump ship, or bring a mafia out for vote 7) but disappearing afterwards is bad.  If you really think he's mafia say-so...if you don't you shouldn't be placing a 6th vote and disappearing.
Suspicion: Low-Medium (30%)...

(emphasis mine)

Noted.  I can see how that is anti-town if I'm not certain that Jo is mafia, and I'm not certain that he is.  My reasoning was exactly as I stated, to see what would happen. And for the record, I was still online to see Tables unvote.

[jotheonah]

I will point out, for what it's worth, that in the long storied history of F.DS Mafia, two players have self-voted. Both those players were town, and both those players died that day. So, the historical record says it's NOT a mafia move and that it's not a good strategy for staying alive.

I sort of slid into lurking mode because the town seemed more productive without me around, and I have a lot of pages to catch up on (I skimmed it when I got home last night, but I was drunk-ish so it didn't really stick). No one's really seemed to notice, so I'm probably going to go on lurking today unless someone has a particular question for me.

[Axxle]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

[Captain_Frisk]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

[theorel]

@SFS:
You're right, I apologize for mis-characterizing you.  Obviously you saw Tables unvote, since you asked him why he didn't want to be at 6.  But as I typed the summary I forgot.  I didn't review since you were still under Axxle and Robz as far as likelihood of mafia.  Thanks for the correction:
I officially only find you as suspicious as a vote 5 with that reasoning.  (since you did leave at some point I'm guessing and the votes been pretty steady at 5) (SFS drops to 27%).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

given the two replies between...I think something should be said re: jotheonah cracked which gave us info:

I disagree...and I will site: Day 1 pressure recipients: TINAS cracked (town), Morgrim cracked (town), Galz cracked (town).  jo cracked...really, you really think that's mafia?

I guess that must be the main difference between us, I see value in the discussion around jo (it's value-rich), you see value in the mad ravings of a nearly dead-man (jo).  Now, he cracked pretty easy, but so did morgrim.  IMO This is EXACTLY what mafia wants. 

So, for all the jo voters, IMO either you're mafia, or you're listening to what they want you to hear.

OK, so this is the fifth-ish use of the word "cracked".  What the hell does it mean in the context of this game?

[theorel]

He cracked under the pressure and started playing badly, doing things like claiming VT, offering to vote for himself etc.

[Captain_Frisk]

OK, so this is the fifth-ish use of the word "cracked".  What the hell does it mean in the context of this game?

Cracked, snapped, went insane.  When someone accuses you - you have a strong reaction to it.  Either you're afraid (because someone is on to you), or you're angry (because someone is wrong on the internet: http://xkcd.com/386/).  Look at how pissed theory was to be lynched on Day 1.

And - naturally, even if its better to be lynched as a vanilla townie than a town PR, we're all playing this game because want to play, and being eliminated is less fun.

[theorel]

Hmm...there's a few people I haven't commented excessively on (since they haven't been involved in a bandwagon). 
I figured I'd post info about them too (I mean why not, right?)
I haven't reviewed their posts, just going off of general info.

Pops & jo: probably town, as they were getting wagoned. (Supicion 10% each)

Captain_Frisk: leaning town.  He picked out DSell, who I think is likely scum, but a lot rides on how that suspicion plays out.  Suspicion: 15% (0% if DSell is scum, 20% if not)

Glooble: he defended jo (although weakly, offering caveats, probably to protect himself just in case jo turned out mafia).  Honestly I can't see a reason mafia would do this, except I suppose maybe worried about turning a witch?  Suspicion: 10%

And that's everybody commented on by me in one form or another.  Although the remaining 3 pops voters don't have percentages...I'll just say that you haven't moved much, so that probably makes it around:
Insomniac: 20%
Grujah: 40%
O: 30%

I guess I've decided to go ahead with the more info is better for town idea...let's see where it goes.  Not that we seem to be anywhere near night, thankfully, but you never know when the hammer will drop and you'll get NKed for being too helpful.

[Galzria]

Theorel, thank you for all the great thoughts. I still want to see more people chime in on my post #760, but I agree with you that there may be something to Dsell as Mafia. Nothing he had done individually had stood out, but I had forgotten that he offered (useless theory talk*) his thoughts on D1 game length. And your right, his actions don't meet his words, which was my #1 scum hunting tell.

So once I get more input on Axxle, whom I feel is in that same camp, I'll consider where we're at, and if a change in vote is necessary.

[theorel]

I'd like info on Axxle too, I mean he's part of a 3-way tie for next-most-suspicious.  Honestly, starting out that post I was planning on putting my vote on Axxle to see if anything happened this time.  But then DSell, man.

I'm happy to hear from everyone, but I'm especially interested in Green_Opal, Insomniac, and Glooble's opinions.  So, if you guys get a chance and catch up, let's hear about it.

Also, please do everything in your power not to be "convinced" by my post.  Read through the posts yourself, analyze what you've thought.  I might be wrong, and the more townies that weigh in with legitimate personal opinions the better off we are.  Also, remember we're all susceptible to confirmation-bias, so do what you can to remove that.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

UNVOTE

I'll be gone for several hours.

[Green Opal]

Theorel: I am in fact a guy, just a guy who vaguely enjoys making people think he might be a girl on the internet (as such things don't exist after all).

I was pretty amused with the way the whole jonah situation exploded. I've had him pegged as the person I'm most suspicious about more or less since I started seriously considering the game, for reasons that had little to do with the current discussion (in short, the timing of his 'vote me, I'm scum' at the start during the joking phase just gave me a massive "ooh, I get to do something clever and hide in plain sight" vibe). But none of the recent talk has shifted my viewpoint on the matter significantly. If anything it's just making it seem like he's trying to dig himself out of a hole. Maybe I'm being too single-minded about the whole thing? It's definitely as much a gut feeling as anything else.
 It's certainly good to see the degree of care which the town is taking before making this first lynch though.

Also, slightly old thought at this point, but how seriously should we take rumour/suggestion that pops/SFS are a gardener/mason pairing? It seemed like that was what we were supposed to think for quite a while, though it probably doesn't matter all that much either way. To that matter, what does it mean for the town if there are masons around, confirmed or not?

As mentioned, I know I'm not being as active on here as I could/should be, but I'll likely be around for a while, so feel free to ask if there's anything you'd like me to clarify.

[Axxle]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

Ok.

And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town. 

And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up.  I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.

What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now

Unvote

PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.

[Captain_Frisk]

Theorel, thank you for all the great thoughts. I still want to see more people chime in on my post #760, but I agree with you that there may be something to Dsell as Mafia. Nothing he had done individually had stood out, but I had forgotten that he offered (useless theory talk*) his thoughts on D1 game length. And your right, his actions don't meet his words, which was my #1 scum hunting tell.

So once I get more input on Axxle, whom I feel is in that same camp, I'll consider where we're at, and if a change in vote is necessary.

I think I agree with you.  I suspect this is also partially because I enjoy the theory discussion for reasons that I outlined previously.  Actively refusing to provide statements on theory feels like wanting to leave your options open down the line for making poor play.

Since no-one has come out and claimed that I've wrongly categorized their stance on the Jotheonah issue, I'm leaning towards believing jotheonah.

Some of the people on the lynching side seem scummy (Axxle for the reasons that Pops and Galzria have provided, DSell) or not very well thought out (SFS), and I'm just not getting that vibe from the folks on the no lynch side - with the possible exception of O.

I think that seeing pairs may be premature - but I'm definitely in agreement that Axxle does not look great.

PRE POST EDIT

WOW - 2 unvotes really quickly after we really started looking at the J voters.

[Captain_Frisk]

Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.

I hate to jump back 10 pages, but this bugged me while reading last night.

Can I ask what you would consider a display of skill at this game on Day 1 to look like?

[theorel]

Note: Tables said he'd be out for 36 hours...so you're not going to get an answer to that question any time soon.

[Captain_Frisk]

Note: Tables said he'd be out for 36 hours...so you're not going to get an answer to that question any time soon.

That's fine - I'm not especially worried about it.  I'm certainly not bad at Dominion, but this is very much a different beast - but I'm just not sure how I could read something by someone and say "Damn - that is some fine play - clearly this person is a master level mafia player"

[Robz888]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

Ok.

And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town. 

And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up.  I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.

What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now

Unvote

PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.

Well, I'm not getting off the bandwagon. I still feel like we have good reason to suspect Jo. What I like about my vote for Jo is it's based on hard evidence. He VT roleclaimed when there was no reason to do so. This hurts the town, because well we don't now if we believe him. But the mafia will believe him and know not to target him in the night, because they would rather kill a power townie. Then Jo asked whether he should vote for himself because he's bungled things. I've said this before, but it most closely reminds of TINAS in MI. Now, TINAS ended up being the Cop, that's true. But he was in a sense lying; he falsely claimed VT. And he was ready to go to the grave as a Cop. It worked out for him and for us, but... it was a crazy, crazy move. And I don't think that's what Jo is doing.

[theorel]

@Green_Opal:
I know I've said that I've got 10% mafia suspicions for jo, but these numbers are subject to change.  Based on current behavior, that's how I feel.  But, hey, I could be wrong.  But what about everyone else?  Even if jo is mafia, there's more mafia out there.  Who do you suspect?  Me for defending him?  Glooble for his partial defense?  SFS for being ready to throw him under the bus?

And then, consider, you know your bias (whatever gut-feelings may have caused it), so that means that you can overcome it, and try to look at the game through a different lens.  It's good that you're not being influenced by what I've said, it's valuable to the town.  But at this stage of the game, zeroing in on one player isn't going to help very much.

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

[Insomniac]

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

@J: Morgrim self voted to kill himself.  Of course that's not a mafia move.  And if he was doing so to try to save himself (some people tried to unvote) it might have actually worked.  I forget who was the second who self voted, can you remind me?

Galzria in M3.

Ok.

And J, you know what? Each self vote by town ended up in a town lynch. Imagine that! It's not a mafia move but it's also definitely anti-town. 

And just to let everyone know, I didn't say it before since I didn't want to add fuel to the theory fire, and the question of my wanting a quick lynch has come up.  I'm of the opinion that lynching town is worse than no lynch, but lynching someone that is 50% likely to be mafia and turns out to be town is better than no lynch.

What theorel says about DSell really bothers me, meaning I'm really doubting my J vote, so for now

Unvote

PEdit: and now it just looks like I'm just following everyone off the bandwagon, but let me be clear that J is still very much on my radar.

Well, I'm not getting off the bandwagon. I still feel like we have good reason to suspect Jo. What I like about my vote for Jo is it's based on hard evidence. He VT roleclaimed when there was no reason to do so. This hurts the town, because well we don't now if we believe him. But the mafia will believe him and know not to target him in the night, because they would rather kill a power townie. Then Jo asked whether he should vote for himself because he's bungled things. I've said this before, but it most closely reminds of TINAS in MI. Now, TINAS ended up being the Cop, that's true. But he was in a sense lying; he falsely claimed VT. And he was ready to go to the grave as a Cop. It worked out for him and for us, but... it was a crazy, crazy move. And I don't think that's what Jo is doing.

If the mafia always believe VT claims then they're horrible mafia and claiming VT is the best thing you can do if you are a power role...

[O]

Yeah, I guess this is the third time citing posts for me.  One of them was a direct challenge, the other two were both a "my intuition seems off from what I expect".  I really didn't expect DSell to be scummy when I started, so I felt like I had to keep reconfirming that it was happening.  And then, since I was already doing that for myself, I figured I'd just jot down the post numbers at the same time.

Be careful about DSell - O might call you a bad town for suspecting him, but I was happy to see someone else come to the same conclusion.

This is like the third or fourth misdirection of one of my posts that you've made. I was not commenting on your suspicion of Dsell, I was commenting on your bad logic relating to post counts.

Maybe you're just mad that I got you killed in M3? I don't know, but the way you only pass suspicion to me indirectly but refuse to accuse me feels scummy and makes me more suspicious of you. But you always seem suspicious of me anyways.

@Theorel, If "bandwagons" effectively prove that a player is not mafia, then we're never going to get to a day one lynch 

[O]

If the mafia always believe VT claims then they're horrible mafia and claiming VT is the best thing you can do if you are a power role...

Except it's really not. Not claiming at all is the best thing you can do for a power role.

[Green Opal]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Just to clarify, by this you're saying you're prefer it if everyone had reasoned suspicions about at least 4 players?

If so, that's a reasonable sentiment. I'm just not sure how realistic it is, especially during the first day of the game, when the only evidence to go on is so fragile.
Also, I wasn't trying to imply that I was disregarding any other players, just that jonah still seems by far the most likely to be scum to me. I haven't exactly collated my thoughts on the other players in a table like you and C_F have yet, but I might get to that at some point.

If I were to name 3 other people I'm most concerned about at the moment, it would probably be :
popsofcftown: Your play has just seemed designed to confuse throughout, with the exception of a few excellent clarifying posts.
Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.
Grujah: You've been very willing to join in bandwagons so far without particularly clear justification, which is one of the classic tells. Everything else you've posted has seemed quite reasonable to me though.

I'll admit I haven't really been using a 'Assuming x is mafia, what do other people's posts about x mean?' viewpoint yet, focusing more on getting a read on people's individual actions. I'll get back to that one

[theorel]

Another post inspired as writing to Green_Opal, but I figured I'd put it up separately.  This is a theory-post.  All is my opinion, take from it what you will.  Note: I can't see into your heads, maybe you're already thinking this way, if so, cool.  I'm not sure how strongly I was actually thinking this way before trying to formulate it, so, I'll say it anyways.

There have been a few votes so far of the sort that say "I want to see what will happen".  Starting votes on someone usually fall into this category as well, whether stated or not.  If you're townie, every vote should be this kind of vote, you should always be curious what will happen when you vote (if you're Robz and only like to accuse people, I suppose this applies to the throwing around of accusations).  So, you're about to place a vote on someone, and say, "I wonder what will happen, will a bandwagon develop?  Will someone jump off this bandwagon?  Will the accused crack and start spewing nonsense to dig himself into a deeper hole?".  Well you should consider, BEFORE you cast the vote and find out what happens, what do you expect to happen based on what you know?  And if that doesn't happen, what further steps should you take to verify whether you were wrong or something else happened.  In other words, form a hypothesis, use your action to test the hypothesis, and analyze the result.

Now, mafia is a psychological game, and you don't really have any idea how people will react.  Other things could happen to invalidate the test.  You don't have to disregard your hypothesis just because it didn't work out like you expected, and you shouldn't take your hypothesis as gospel truth just because one test worked out.  If your test fails, consider why it failed: was it a bad test, or a bad hypothesis?  If it succeeds, figure out another test.  The danger is that you'll take some action with some hypothesis, say "jo is mafia", and then see what happens.  Then whatever happens you'll read as a confirmation.  For example: did a bandwagon fail to materialize? ah he must be scum, and the mafia are redirecting...did a bandwagon show up? ah see he's scum, everyone agrees with me, I'm so smart.

You obviously shouldn't expose your test expectations, just use them to figure out whether you need to rethink things.

[Robz888]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

[theorel]

@Green_Opal: just the first line of your post.
No I'd be happiest if everyone received reasoned suspicions from at least 4 players.

@O: I will not be suspicious of a "bandwagon" that develops over the course of 3-4 days without any crazy over-reactionary posting involved.  We've got three weeks...we don't need to go from first vote to eighth vote in 24 hours.

[Galzria]

O, I don't think bandwagons themselves are bad. Quite the contrary. I think overly hasty bandwagons are bad, and very informative.

I'm not saying Jo doesn't have a lynch coming to him. TINAS almost got lynched for erratic play D1. Morgrim did get lynched for erratic play D1. And I got lynched for erratic play D1 (though everything I said was justified and true. ). Did all 3 end up being pro-town? Yes. Did all 3 deserve to be lynched for their play? Probably (though TINAS weaseled out of it). Should J go the same route? I don't have a problem with it. Do I think he's town? Yes, most likely.

So I have no problems looking into that bandwagon NOW, instead of just waiting around for day 2 (or to be NK). So there you are. By all means, I think J ought to die for his actions. If nothing else as a policy kill to not try and double-bluff your way through D1. But I'm happy letting others enforce it if they see fit.

[Insomniac]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

[Green Opal]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

True, but the difference is here you've been all over multiple people. Admittedly there's been a lot more said here than there, so I might be overstating things.

[Voltgloss]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

Confirming this.  Please keep M-III out of the discussion, folks (at least while it is ongoing).

[Galzria]

AS MAFIA III IS ONGOING, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT IT HERE, DEAD OR NOT

Sorry, my statement of analysis was against all games D1 lynches, of which one I was a part of (and the comment about myself was in jest) - Still, I'll be more careful.

[Robz888]

Note: I would be happiest if every player in the thread got up to at least 4 votes, because that means the town's really looking for scum, really considering their options, and really willing to question there beliefs in the face of information.

Robz: You seem very intent on putting forward a very aggressive line in questioning people. That's certainly not a bad thing in and of itself, as it can fluster people and bring out mistake, but it just doesn't seem to line up with how I remember you reading as a townie/jailer in M1. To be fair it's also not reading as much of a mafia vibe as I got from you in M2 (Obviously I can't verify this, as I wasn't following the QT or anything), so that's why I'm not more actively suspicious yet.

I was pretty aggressive Round 1 of M1. I came after TINAS big time.

True, but the difference is here you've been all over multiple people. Admittedly there's been a lot more said here than there, so I might be overstating things.

Yeah, and there's almost twice as many people!

[theorel]

@Green_Opal:
Great post.  I think town is best served by looking around at lots of people.  Hopefully we can combine our reads and come up with the actual scum.  (Also it's relatively difficult for scum to look at everybody, because they have to remove the information they already have about who's mafia and who isn't.  It's not like super-hard (they should know who's suspicious so they know who to night-kill and who to go after during the day), but it's something.).

I also apologize for the references to Galzria in MIII.  I'll do my best to make sure it doesn't happen again.

[popsofctown]

At the risk of talking about mafia theory, you know that 50% is like, amazing, best scumhunt ever odds, right?  With 15 players and 3 mafia, if we alternated mislynching and lynching, we'd get

3 mafia, 10 townies D2
2 mafia, 9 townies D3
2 mafia, 7 townies D4
1 mafia, 6 townies D5
1 mafia, 4 Townies D6

And on day six the townies win, with a mislynch cushion unused.

If there are 4 mafia, we probably ought to have some good PRs etc. 

[Dsell]

Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.

This is post #203 from me. Yep, I'm all for having plenty of time, not being on a strict deadline. I love that we have three weeks here rather than 1 week like in MIII. But I haven't changed my position at all! "I don't want to try to lynch too early." A too-early lynch is nothing but anti-town. It's just almost inevitable that there will be mafia aboard the bandwagon. That's why I pulled away from the pops bandwagon even though I really wanted to vote. It didn't feel right, it built up too fast and it was too early.

Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.

[Voltgloss]

Glooble, Robz, and Insomniac searched the Estate Courtyard for the elusive portcullis key.  No cobblestone was left unturned.  However, their task was complicated by the fact that, every time someone moved three cobblestones, someone else accidentally moved one of them back.

Vote Count 1-10

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
Grujah (2) - Glooble, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell
Dsell (2) - Captain_Frisk, theorel
Glooble (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (1) - Galzria

Not Voting {4} - Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Captain_Frisk]

At the risk of talking about mafia theory, you know that 50% is like, amazing, best scumhunt ever odds, right?  With 15 players and 3 mafia, if we alternated mislynching and lynching, we'd get

I know that there are lots of more "exciting" things happening right now so this thread is dead - lets see if we can get it going again.

Pops - who were you directing this at?  Is this suggesting that we proceed forward with a J lynch because he's got a 50% chance of being mafia?

[Robz888]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

[Insomniac]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

[jotheonah]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

[O]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

Now this one's more confusing, but probably still meant to be MIII....

[jotheonah]

No, that goes here. Although it is a little surreal flipping back and forth between two towns that want me dead. Maybe we should make it a race? Whoever kills me first wins?

[O]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

[Captain_Frisk]

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

Now this one's more confusing, but probably still meant to be MIII....

Really?  Seems like it belongs here.  Axxle did post a n00b friendly article in the beginning of this game.  I don't know if I agree that he's been trying to control the game and mold our behavior to his standards.

[Robz888]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

I think his bad town play is indicative of him being mafia, or at least as much an indicator as I am liable to get this round.

In MII, Jo fought tooth and nail against any accusations against him. The way he has sort of hung his head in shame, to me, is his best tactic for survival as mafia: just hope we forget about it. And there's a good chance we will.

[theorel]

@Insomniac
I'd actually like to hear some analysis from you.  Who are you suspicious of?  (I assume still Pops, anybody else?)  You asserted that there were three ahead of Jo, who are they?

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

@SFS, when you get back: any suspicions?  I'm pretty sure you didn't think jo was mafia...so who is?

@O. What about you? still think this stage has no info?

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

--
I'd like to hear more opinions on Galzria's #760.  (and to add to it jo's recent vote)

Glooble will probably be around soon-ish, I'd like to hear from him.

Plenty of folks not weighing in yet...I'm going to be quiet until tonight.  I think I dominated the days discussion a bit too much (and for that I apologize).  So hard to resist responding...I can see why this thread gets so big so fast.

[Axxle]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

At least not with the same players.

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic.

I like having control and removing chaos in games like this where it's easy for it to get out of hand.

[Robz888]

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

If they ignore it and scumhunt, I'm less likely to think they are mafia.
If they defend or accuse back, it depends on the tone.
If they claim VT, it's a townie bad move or a mafia move.
If they're silent, who knows.
If they crack, I'm likely to suspect mafia. It matters how crazy the crack is.
And I'll add one: If they defend themselves, appear to be losing the argument, and disengage from the debate... I expect they are mafia.

But I really, really, really don't like Jo's comment: "Should I just vote for myself?" It's not the same as what Morgrim did. Morgrim actually DID vote to kill himself, and that was crazy. Jo wants us to think he knows he has screwed up and is fine with dying, but he doesn't actually vote to die.

So yes, I see him as mafia, as best I can see anybody as mafia right now.

[popsofctown]

Joth isn't 50% likely to be scum.  Maybe like 25% after that weak Axxle poke.

It's that that's combined with the VT claim and the info in his wagon that matters.

Someone somewhere said something along the lines of "X is only 50% likely to be scum" and I wanted to point out that's not an only.  I usually understand and accept most of the lynches I participate in are 30% or 40% accurate and that that is good enough.

Well I've had some hot streaks, though.  If I was 30% or 40% accurate though, that would be ok.

[Dsell]

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

But that's just it...if we just put it down as bad town play and accept that he's a vanilla townie then he basically has a free pass from suspicion for the rest of the game. If we decide not to lynch him then it will be no surprise when he survives every night consistently. "Accidentally" claiming VT is a very smart mafia ploy because it is the perfect excuse for survival night after night. If it's true, the mafia will believe it and kill others who are more likely to be roles, and if it's false and he's mafia, well then the mafia's chance of winning just got MUCH better. Investigative roles could be used but in a closed (or is it open?) system like this game where we don't know which roles exist or how many there are, that can be incentive for mafia to falseclaim and say "yeah he's town" or "he's mafia, let's get him!"

It's not an airtight plan but my vote is going to stay put for now because I think jo is the best chance at hitting mafia we have, at least at this time. Town: please ask yourself if you think jo is that terrible of a player. I'll admit that it really looked like bad townie play to me but I just can't reconcile his background in debate and his overall good play with these catastrophic "blunders."

[jotheonah]

As my vote indicates, I am all for lynching Jo. We may have rung just as much useful info out of this round as we can. I say that because the convo is fizzling a bit, and I don't feel like enough good accusations are being tossed out. I'd really like a Night's worth of info to help us out at this point.

Why SHOULD we lynch jotheonah? for bad town play, we could scum hunt more

I think his bad town play is indicative of him being mafia, or at least as much an indicator as I am liable to get this round.

In MII, Jo fought tooth and nail against any accusations against him. The way he has sort of hung his head in shame, to me, is his best tactic for survival as mafia: just hope we forget about it. And there's a good chance we will.

MII was a small town, and I felt like it was REALLY IMPORTANT to stay alive, even as a VT. This time, it's a big town. I didn't set out to get lynched, but I made a series of increasingly terrible plays and realized I was the optimal day one lynch for the town, informationally. And also for metagame reasons I suppose. So the resignation is pro-town in this situation. The tooth-and-nail was pro-town in the MII context.

I get so high strung when I get really into defending myself. And in this game, I'm just not feeling it.  Briefly, when I did try to defend myself, it just made me more suspicious, so that didn't seem helpful. I AM town. But I've been playing really indefensibly. So I won't defend. You can either lynch me, and I will accept it and hope it's as informative as pops was saying it was, or keep me alive and, starting Day 2, I can try to pick up the pieces and play in a more orthodox way. It's really up to you all.

[Insomniac]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

So not everyone who plays mafia is robz?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to think hard before playing 2 simultaneous mafia games on this forum again...

So not everyone who plays mafia is robz?

I thought it was common knowledge that I am RobZ's main alternate account?

[Insomniac]

@theorel: I see your request, I will prepare a large post later tonight when I'm not at work

[Axxle]

Even if we don't lynch J today, he does not have a free pass for the rest of the game.  There are enough of us suspicious of him that he's going to have to tread lightly if he is mafia.  He can still make mafia tell just like any other mafia.

[Dsell]

@Robz:
I'm curious what sort of reaction you expect from town when under pressure.  This is the main reason I see no value from people's pressured responses.  It looks to me like:
If they ignore it and scumhunt, they're deflecting (mafia tell).
If they defend it or accuse back, they're defensive (mafia tell).
If they claim VT, they're mafia.
If they're silent, they're mafia.
If they crack, they're mafia.
Of course, those are all obvious mafia play, and mafia wouldn't be obvious, so they're town.
Even if you're not willing to respond openly, I hope you'll consider if there is actually a behavior you expect or if you change it to fit whatever fake-tells show up.

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

[Dsell]

Also, I'm leaving very soon and will be gone for several hours.

[theorel]

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

Alright, I said I wouldn't respond, but if this legitimately confusing it may be important to some people.  I do and will completely ignore what any person under pressure says.  If they defend themselves they're just as much mafia as they were before, or conversely just as much town.  If I have determined that you are likely mafia, and you go under pressure there is nothing YOU can say that will convince me otherwise, you can claim VT, you can suicide, you can roleclaim, I don't care, it's a move to try to get out of pressure, or temporary insanity induced by pressure.  Now someone else might make some points refuting evidence, pointing elsewhere, etc...but nothing you says will matter.  So, no acquitting, no condemning, you may as well be silent as pops, it's not going to influence my vote.

[Robz888]

I do not like this analysis at all! You are basically acquitting anyone who is about to be lynched! Let me turn the question around and ask you: What sort of reaction do you expect from a mafia under pressure? If it is any of the reactions above (which you intended to be comprehensive), then it's obvious town play. But then you've just acquitted the mafia!

Alright, I said I wouldn't respond, but if this legitimately confusing it may be important to some people.  I do and will completely ignore what any person under pressure says.  If they defend themselves they're just as much mafia as they were before, or conversely just as much town.  If I have determined that you are likely mafia, and you go under pressure there is nothing YOU can say that will convince me otherwise, you can claim VT, you can suicide, you can roleclaim, I don't care, it's a move to try to get out of pressure, or temporary insanity induced by pressure.  Now someone else might make some points refuting evidence, pointing elsewhere, etc...but nothing you says will matter.  So, no acquitting, no condemning, you may as well be silent as pops, it's not going to influence my vote.

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

[Axxle]

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.

[popsofctown]

Joth, why do you want me to wait for tomorrow?  Give me content now.  Convince me you're Innocent Child with the scumhunting of a Cop and I will not lynch you today.

[theorel]

@Robz
Not noticeably, no.  Why would they? That's just straight-up bad play.

To clarify: I do expect different people to behave differently, but I don't expect different roles to behave differently.

And the kicker is that I do expect mafia and townies to react differently to a building lynch.  I expect townies to be a little more uncomfortable with it, because they don't really aren't 100% sure...maybe 50%, maybe 30%.  The mafia though are sure, and they're trying to convince others to do it too, with flimsy information and bad logic.  Now not all the time, obviously.  They want to be scum just enough to get away with it.  So a scum-tell to me is exactly that, trying to get away with scummy behavior, because they think they can.  So...I'll take my evidence for the 14 other people that weren't under pressure.  They did some interesting things, maybe you should look into it.

[jotheonah]

Joth, why do you want me to wait for tomorrow?  Give me content now.  Convince me you're Innocent Child with the scumhunting of a Cop and I will not lynch you today.

This would all be much easier if I were IC. I could just claim, ping, and go. But I think I see what you mean. If I want to reset as a sensible player, there's no reason to wait until tomorrow to do so. There is, however, reason to wait until I'm not at work and can do in-depth analysis instead of just casual posting.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

STARTED AFTER READING 866

@Theo - The only folks I've had my antennae raised on are Robz, Jo, and Axxle.

My first vote for Robz was because I was irked.  I unvoted and revoted for him over the issues I called him out on - it was my first hint of something amiss with anyone.

Jo I no longer know what to think of.  I posted about how I didn't read his comment concerning self-voting as a threat to self vote, but rather as a fairly pointed probing question to Pops (which I don't think.  No one has responded to that thought, so it was likely written off.  In addition, I didn't read his VT roleclaim the same way everyone else did either at first, but when I went back and re-read it, I DID agree that it is in fact a roleclaim.  When I voted for him, I did it entirely for the reason I specified.

I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760.  I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.

I've also asked for other clarifications and have not heard from the addressees. Maybe there is a pattern in that - perhaps Mafia feels it can ignore anything coming from me.  I should go back and tabulate, as I may have blindly hit on 2 or 3 good suspects.

[O]

@O. What about you? still think this stage has no info?

On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft

[Galzria]

But... why would you think like that? You don't expect townies and mafia to behave differently when confronted with death?

It sounds similar to what Galz is trying to do right now with votes on me, although to an extreme.

Because I want the rest of the towns opinion, not yours. I already know yours, don't I?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760.  I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.

Are you trying to antagonize RobZ again? (emphasis mine in quote).

That said I am also Axxle suspicious.  In the interest of seeing where this goes:

Unvote

Vote: Axxle

He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754.  I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing.  I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory.  Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.

Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.

Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town.  If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly?  If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?

[O]

In the interest of seeing where this goes:

This feels like the 5th or 6th time I've seen this (it might only be the second, but its certainly at least the second).

There's nothing inherently wrong with the statement as long as you also recognize that voting makes the statement "I am happy with player _X_ getting lynched tonight".

[Grujah]

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?

(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)

[Captain_Frisk]

In the interest of seeing where this goes:

This feels like the 5th or 6th time I've seen this (it might only be the second, but its certainly at least the second).

There's nothing inherently wrong with the statement as long as you also recognize that voting makes the statement "I am happy with player _X_ getting lynched tonight".

I disagree strongly with that statement.  The person casting a hammer vote is saying that.  I'm interested in seeing how quickly a bandwagon develops - what the other players think about the vote, who else votes, and the discussion that occurs as the # of votes changes.

When we have a discussion about J after he's received 6 votes, that's a very focused and different discussion than we have if everyone just says "Hey - I'm a little suspicious of X"

We're @ 2 votes on Axxle (out of .  Voting for him isn't saying "I'm happy with him getting lynched" - unlike say - Day 3 of Mafia II - where even 1 wrong vote was game ending. 

Just in case I'm not being clear.... with my vote I am saying

I suspect him enough to be willing to vote for him.  As of this moment, I think he has a greater than average chance of being mafia, and I'd like to see how the rest of the town feels.  Depending on the reaction of the rest of the town, I reserve the right to unvote as appropriate.

[Captain_Frisk]

Damnit.  The number 8 followed by a parenthesis is apparently auto emoted.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760.  I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.

Are you trying to antagonize RobZ again? (emphasis mine in quote).

I'm unconcerned about Robz's issues with my being a newb, or with my commenting on same.  Robz knows how to vote for me, and I've reminded him he's welcome to do so.  Thanks for giving me a platform to remind him again.

And for the record, in the post you quoted, I spoke of skill level, not game experience.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Besides, I feel like this is my 3rd game.  I wasted the first one posting like this was just an extension of the forum, not the DEAD SERIOUS (no pun intended) game it apparently is.

[Axxle]

I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early.  That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.

I was trying to say that I am not in favor if delaying lynches just for the sake of delaying them.

I have 3 votes on me, Galz, J and now CF.

I still need to evaluate DSell and J which is why I unvoted and haven't voted again.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

In an earlier post, C_F said this referring to Axxle, then voted for Axxle:

He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754.  I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing.  I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory.  Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.

Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.

Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town.  If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly?  If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?

I agree with this analysis.

UNVOTE
VOTE: Axxle

If I've counted correctly, this would be 4 votes.

[Captain_Frisk]

I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early.  That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.

I was trying to say that I am not in favor if delaying lynches just for the sake of delaying them.

I have 3 votes on me, Galz, J and now CF.

I still need to evaluate DSell and J which is why I unvoted and haven't voted again.

Ooops, forgot about J's vote.  It's getting pretty hot in here - Axxle, I would like to see your thoughts on the J / DSell situation.

Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up.  What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?

[O]

In an earlier post, C_F said this referring to Axxle, then voted for Axxle:

He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754.  I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing.  I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory.  Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.

Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.

Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town.  If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly?  If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?

I agree with this analysis.

UNVOTE
VOTE: Axxle

If I've counted correctly, this would be 4 votes.

You and Captain Frisk seem to agree on a lot.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

For now

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Wow, nothing for 5 hours with the site down.  And we have such a shortage of material too, that 5 hours might be an information loss we can never recover from...

Until tomorrow, have fun all.

[Voltgloss]

O stepped out of the Library and breathed deeply in the fresh air.

"Everything got so quiet all of a sudden!"

Vote Count 1-11

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
Grujah (1) - Glooble
jotheonah (3) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell
Dsell (1) - theorel
Glooble (1) - popsofctown
Axxle (4) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Axxle

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[Axxle]

I feel like DSell hasn't really said a whole lot of anything.  A lot of posts asking people to clarify what they mean, agreeing once or twice, some early attacks of J.

Initially distraught by pops who wrote SFS as town off the bat, DSell was needed some prodding to speak up but when he did he attacked SFS, who was arguably the easiest target in the game at that point. 

Some obvious talk about pops behaving weird, defensive of CF's vote on him (although I don't think overly defensive) where he (in my opinion) fails to defend himself,

He has not voted till J.  Many if not most of the players here look first to votes as evidence.  Looks as though he's purposefully staying under the radar.

post 675 finally looks solid, although may just be rehashing others.  Followed by parroting what other people are saying, more asking for clarification, was the first one to comment on J's #703 self destructive post (so, originalish).

I like this post:

The play has been too terrible to be Mafia.

The problem with this is that I don't think jotheonah is actually a terrible player. It's definitely looked like a series of blunders, but the more I read things like this...

Also, incidentally joth has a very informative wagon that depends on his flip.

That's by design.

...the more I believe he thinks he is in control of his game. So on that front I agree with Robz and, I guess, O.

decent posts later.

FOS: Theorel for misrepresenting DSell, as he explains:

Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.

FOS is finger of suspicion, indicating that I'm going to be following him very closely and may vote.  I'll go through his posts tomorrow to see if he's misrepresenting anyone else and conclude/disprove my suspicions. (I'll probably look at CF too).

[Axxle]

Ah, that post was kind of stream of consciousness, which is why the start of it doesn't match the conclusion.

[theorel]

Aside from Jo, which was just ugh, I haven't really seen anything that has given me any real red flags. By now I expect there will be some random accusations and lots of voting and unvoting (read: already happening) and eventually we will get somewhere. I like having extra time, to comment on that debate. I don't want to try to lynch too early. In my EXPERIENCE (*cough*MIII*cough*) ahem... being on a deadline got us all to vote but it made things really heated and desperate. I'd rather have too much time than too little. Don't have to use it all.

This is post #203 from me. Yep, I'm all for having plenty of time, not being on a strict deadline. I love that we have three weeks here rather than 1 week like in MIII. But I haven't changed my position at all! "I don't want to try to lynch too early." A too-early lynch is nothing but anti-town. It's just almost inevitable that there will be mafia aboard the bandwagon. That's why I pulled away from the pops bandwagon even though I really wanted to vote. It didn't feel right, it built up too fast and it was too early.

Theorel, you're accusing me of changing my position and now favoring an early lynch. This is not at all true, I don't want an early lynch! But we are no longer in the early stages of this game. We have almost thirty-five pages already because this game has been very accelerated. The fact that nearly everyone has cast one or more serious votes should be proof that it is no longer too soon for a lynch. So the thrust of your argument against me is just wrong, and I'm really struggling to see where you're getting this suspicion from. Yes, this game is moving faster than I thought it would (we are nearly to MIII's post count after just 48 hours!!) and frankly I was the very last person to cast a serious vote (#730) because I want to take time to consider and reread what people have said with SO much content. However, I feel rock-solid in my jo vote, especially because he's deciding to lay low now that things are dying down.

And since you, Robz, and Axxle all disagreed with me.  And the posting was so slow that nothing really happened...

----
It seems to me that there are at least 4 people that disagree with you.  It sounds to me, based on what's been said that: I disagree, Tables disagrees*, Galzria disagrees, and Axxle disagrees.  Robz seems to agree with you.  Objectively I don't see how you can think the second bandwagon of any substance is late in the day.  Post-count is irrelevant to game stage, that's a weak argument. 

As to serious votes: I had not yet cast a serious vote (if Grujah had picked up speed I would have thought of him as a mafia fall-boy, but joth stole the show so my experiment failed).  I don't believe pops has cast a "serious" vote (dunno what that would look like).  I feel unconfident of any of O's votes being serious (though maybe I misread him).  Galz hadn't cast one yet (that's why he jumped off the joth-wagon).  Tables hadn't cast one (he was nervous about 6 votes).  SFS hadn't cast one (he wanted to "see what would happen", though his previous vote on Robz might be characterized as serious, I can't imagine any first-vote on someone as serious...it's always a feel-them-out vote).  Which means that I wouldn't have characterized Green_Opal's vote as serious (although I think he had clarified that he was happy sticking around).  Maybe you really misread the game-state there?

You were the last one to cast a vote before the bandwagon started falling apart.  I think you believed it would continue, and didn't want to be the hammer (I certainly wondered if I'd wake up to night 1).  You were trying to keep the ball rolling to make that lynch in spite of at least 3 people's misgivings (mine, Glooble's and Table's).

Finally, MIII.  Which I can't comment on.
PS: I'm really sorry if this is pushing the bounds of references to that game...I understand more and more why any reference to an ongoing mafia-game is bad.

Finally, that wasn't the whole of my argument, just the first point.  You've ignored the rest, I guess that's because it is scummy and you can't defend it.

*based on his unvote, though the game had moved along a little by your post so this may not be true.
----

I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position.  You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it.  We could go back and forth, but what's the point?  You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting.  You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you.  There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with.  And you're not even under pressure yet.

For myself, I don't really feel pressure...so I know it won't give an accurate read on me.  For further evidence: MI: townies cracked under pressure, mafia were smooth (Ozle and Axxle didn't even start to crack at any point in their defense...Robz was even convinced that Ozle was townie).  MII: townies cracked under pressure, mafia didn't (not that there was much pressure there).  So, yeah, no value there.

[theorel]

Dang, lost part of the first line pre-post-editing:
It should read:
And since you, Robz, and Axxle all disagreed with me.  And the posting was so slow that nothing really happened...I will demonstrate why I find the accused's behavior worthless, and why I'll not really carry on arguments with the accused.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ah, that post was kind of stream of consciousness, which is why the start of it doesn't match the conclusion.

Axxle: Thanks for the meatier post - but you've ignored several points:

Axxle, I would like to see your thoughts on the J / DSell situation.

Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up.  What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?

#1 - You didn't really explain your backing off of J.  You were so strongly in favor of J that you double voted; but then you unvoted because of a side accusation between theorel and DSell?  I don't see how the two are connected. 

#2 - You mentioned that if there if we feel that lynching is unlikely, there's no pressure in the votes.  Can you respond to my question above?

[Axxle]

Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up.  What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?

I think mafia'll feel less panicked and be able to respond in a slightly slower but calmer manner in order to not make mistakes.

#1 - You didn't really explain your backing off of J.  You were so strongly in favor of J that you double voted; but then you unvoted because of a side accusation between theorel and DSell?  I don't see how the two are connected.

I thought someone mentioned that it was DSell pushing the J wagon from the start, I forget who, and was worried that my vote was being heavily influenced by that.  Now I see that isn't the case so I guess my vote can return:

Vote: J

[popsofctown]

Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.

This vote is serious. 

Vote: Axxle

His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Axxle

This brings us to 5?

Galz, J, Me, SFS, Pops

[Tables]

Captain Frisk: Frisk's made a few interesting posts, but generally hasn't caught my eye. He made a good post analysing O's behaviour (289), but that's really about it. I know Dominion skill and Mafia skill are two very seperate things, but I've kinda been expecting more from him. No real read yet.

I hate to jump back 10 pages, but this bugged me while reading last night.

Can I ask what you would consider a display of skill at this game on Day 1 to look like?

Okay actually, I should probably apologise for this comment. I was kinda rushing and it came out very badly. What I meant to say (in more words) is, as a skilled dominion player, I irrationally expected a lot from you in Mafia. Like, one of the best players level. What I've seen so far certainly hasn't been bad play or anything (and in the last few pages I've seen more interesting things as well for what it's worth), but wasn't the super-skilled play I expected for no real reason. As for what a good display of skill on day 1 looks like, honestly, I have no idea. The games I regularly play in see the whole of day 1 as expendible, and while I've tried to change that, those people rarely let that happen. I think the day 1 play here has been on the whole good.

Page 36 isn't loading for me, so I haven't read that yet. And like always, I've managed to catch up reading and now have to disappear again pretty soon, so I won't be able to give a full analysis, but what I have seen regarding Joth has left me somewhat less suspicious of him. He's still one of my main suspects, but I'm less certain than I was a while ago. Theorel's points (regarding Joth, 762) were interesting, but I think I disagree with them. It's perfectly possible for a wagon to develop quickly on scum. If one townie can willingly quickly jump on, why can't another 4 or 5? And that's as far as we reached, about 6 votes. About half the town, if he's scum and none of his teammates voted for him. And this also goes under the assumption that no scum were willing to bus him (that is, lynch him to make themselves look less suspicious - a relatively common and effective tactic), which is a very dangerous assumption to make. And in terms of time, yes, the wagon was quick, but in terms of posts, suspicion has developed over pages 10-25 - a good 350 or so posts worth of discussion leading to people getting suspicious of him.

That being said, theorel's analysis in general has been interesting, and that's lowered my suspicions slightly.

Finally, Axxle... Galzria's points in post 760 really resonated with me, and looking at the votes he's cast, I must admit the small amount of trust I had in Axxle has been shattered. Joining two bandwagons mid-late is really quite something, especially if one or both of the people turn out to be town. And Axxle's defences against this didn't do much to allay my suspicions.

Oh, actually, there is one other thing. Someone (I seem to have forgotten to record who and where) pointed out that we've had about 35 pages of discussion, so we'd hardly be ending the day early. Actually, I kinda agree with this. Okay, we have a lot more time we can use, so if we can use it usefully we should, but we'll certainly not be selling ourselves short of discussion if the day ended right now. Note: I do NOT advocate the day ending this soon, I think there's still a lot of useful discussion we can have.

[Captain_Frisk]

And we're back!

Thanks rrenaud!

[O]

What even is error_324?


@ Theorel, my vote for Popsofctown is completely serious.

@ Everyone: I'm not exactly sure what the case against Axxle is, if someone could concisely explain it to me (maybe I just missed a post?) that'd be great.

[Voltgloss]

Grumbling at his companions' inactivity, popsofctown bustled around inside the Estate Laboratory, hunting for the key.  Unfortunately, he didn't notice the large red button labeled "PRESS TO RELEASE PARALYZING GAS" until he'd already accidentally pushed a bench up against it.

The occupants of the Estate began moving again roughly four hours later. 

Vote Count 1-12

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
Grujah (1) - Glooble
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown

Not Voting {2} - Tables, Grujah

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

[jotheonah]

+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.

Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?

[O]

Voltgloss for #1 Mafia god

[Captain_Frisk]

+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.

Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?

I needled him on his waffling from "Very strong anti J" to "unvote" to "Maybe its Theorel", and then he voted back - with little excuse.  Seems slightly scummy to me.

[Galzria]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

When the game first began, I was asking questions of most the people online - Theory questions, sure, but still making them take a stance on issues - Axxle, above and beyond refusing to take part, actively discouraged my form of investigation and scumhunting as useless and a waste of time. In particular, the question I had been asking was along the lines of "What are your feelings on game length? With 3 weeks, we have "as much time as we want" to allow for investigation, or do you feel a quick lynch is good for the town if it presents itself?"

When Jo got up to 6 votes (and went no further), Axxle suddenly jumped in with his thoughts "Hey, lets get this over with. No need to drag things on" - Now hey, I don't disagree with this. As a matter of fact, I actively believe this is the best form of play. What I disagree with is his TIMING. He actively refused to take a stance early, and then threw that out there when it could have the most potential impact. Almost everybody else, I can refer back to how they feel, and hold them accountable to their actions now. But Axxle's LACK of accountability, more, his REFUSAL to allow for accountability, struck me as very very scummy.

Add in to that the fact that he was vote #5 on Pops, and vote #4 on Jotheonah (both times with relatively little reasoning), and it was enough for me to make my case and cast my vote. Others have come out with their own reasons, some I think are valid, some not quite so much. But his play, to me, has not been consistent with honesty that town has no reason NOT to have.

[Dsell]

Objectively I don't see how you can think the second bandwagon of any substance is late in the day.  Post-count is irrelevant to game stage, that's a weak argument. 

As to serious votes: I had not yet cast a serious vote (if Grujah had picked up speed I would have thought of him as a mafia fall-boy, but joth stole the show so my experiment failed).  I don't believe pops has cast a "serious" vote (dunno what that would look like).  I feel unconfident of any of O's votes being serious (though maybe I misread him).  Galz hadn't cast one yet (that's why he jumped off the joth-wagon).  Tables hadn't cast one (he was nervous about 6 votes).  SFS hadn't cast one (he wanted to "see what would happen", though his previous vote on Robz might be characterized as serious, I can't imagine any first-vote on someone as serious...it's always a feel-them-out vote).  Which means that I wouldn't have characterized Green_Opal's vote as serious (although I think he had clarified that he was happy sticking around).  Maybe you really misread the game-state there?

I really don't feel the need to defend myself against these increasingly ridiculous accusations, but you really must stop misrepresenting my points, Theorel.

"Objectively I don't see how you can think the second bandwagon of any substance is late in the day."

Please point me to where I ever said it was late in the day. I just said it was no longer early in the day, which I stand by. With three weeks left, it's impossible (and thus moot) to say whether it's late in the day until we are very near the deadline. It all hinges on when the lynch happens, and who knows? Anyway, your point is not so objective as you would like to suggest.

As for serious votes, I was obviously referring to non-joke votes rather than votes-with-the-specific-purpose-of-lynching (how should I know). It's a bit presumptive of you to ascribe a motive to other players' votes when those motives are not explicitly stated.

I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position.  You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it.  We could go back and forth, but what's the point?  You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting.  You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you.  There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with.  And you're not even under pressure yet.

(Bold emphasis mine)

You're admitting to really bad play here. It's fair to say that actions speak louder than words in this game but you are choosing to completely ignore me. That's a huge distraction! If you've completely made up your mind then you won't have an ear for reason!

Also, what's up with the quote in bold? What makes you think you have that kind of control over Robz' vote?

[O]

I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position.  You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it.  We could go back and forth, but what's the point?  You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting.  You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you.  There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with.  And you're not even under pressure yet.

this teaches me not to skim over very long posts; I missed this bit of ridiculousness. Mafia mistake or arrogant + bad town play to say "and make Robz vote for you"? Probably arrogant town

"so I'm not actually reconsidering my position"

Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.

[Robz888]

I'm going to agree with O and say that while I don't think Thoerel is making himself necessarily suspicious in my eyes, he is coming off very badly in this argument with Dsell. And I don't understand that line about me at all.

[Captain_Frisk]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

Why do I always get uneasy when G makes a reasonable point?

He's also flipped on Theorel - pointing the Finger of Suspicion, when theorel has been pretty quiet, and really only came back with the same type of analysis that Axxle was praising earlier.

I am feeling an increasing town vibe from theorel.  Just look at all that original analysis.  Insane.

The relevant posts seem to be:

We're talking way too much theory and not enough game meat.  One of the things that the article I linked to tried to warn us about. Even more so considering what kind of forum we are on. We'll fall into the trap of voting for people who don't agree with our specific playstyle instead of who we think is scummy.

Thank you Tables for trying to create discussion but that kind of passive questioning doesn't seem to be getting us anywhere either.

jotheonah: It's these kind of silly jokes that get town killed.

I will come up with something to spur conversation in a sec, just want to get this out there.

I do not like the mentality of not wanting to lynch early.  That completely invalidates any pressure we put on people since they'll just know we won't go through with the lynch.

I went and read through his other posts, and there just isn't a whole lot of meat to go on.  I had to call him out twice to get him to answer questions about his stance

We've had 3 bandwagons.

J: Started because he (jokingly?) claimed scum, and then really wailed on for a semi-roleclaim of VT.
Pops: For being kindof a jerk I think is the gist of this bandwagon?

Axxle was on both of these.  He quickly backed off J when it started to look like it wasn't going to go anywhere, and then he jumped back on when he was called out on it. 

I'm going to hedge a bit and note that I'm not 100% sure, but he does seem like a more likely candidate than the others we've looked at.

[Galzria]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

Why do I always get uneasy when G makes a reasonable point?

Man, life is going to be hell for me in these games.

[Insomniac]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

Why do I always get uneasy when G makes a reasonable point?

Man, life is going to be hell for me in these games.

Thats what you get for winning as mafia, I TRUSTED YOU!

[Captain_Frisk]

Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.

I'm not offended by it.  I am offended by you lumping me in with SFS!

[Axxle]

I think it's worth looking into both J and Theorel.

I guess its time for more defense.

I bandwagoned at those times because I was being convinced by other people on it, and then pops and J did something stupid and scummy that pushed me over the edge to vote.  Can't check specifics because I'm on phone and limited on time.

I don't explain myself well, it's true.  I'll attempt to get better in the future.

My J DSell behavior.  I was sure of J, Theorel says DSell was manipulating the town to vote J, I panick, unvote, and investigate the truth of the accusation.  It's false so I wanted to investigate Theorel further, forgetting to revote J.  The end.  (Still need to investigate Theorel, there's more than one mafia)

Flipping on Theorel isn't a big deal.  He had like one post the first time I evaluated him and like two the second. 

[Robz888]

Okay, I haven't been paying good enough attention here lately (the forum crashing didn't help), so I just went back and reviewed my own case against Jotheonah. This seems important, since people are now moving against Axxle. I will say that I can understand why, but... I think there is still a very good case for lynching Jo.

In my mind, the case for lynching him begins with this post:

This is something I've been thinking a lot about. I went into this game thinking "I'm not just town but VT, I'm totally expendable, so I'm just gonna say whatever cause I don't care about being lynched. But then when people started voting for me I defaulted to my OMG don't kill me mindset, which I guess is a pretty natural way to feel? Only, that mindset made more people think I was scum than anything else I'd done. So now that I've taken my cooldown time, I think I'm OK with being lynched if that's the way things are going to go.  After all, I already survived a whole game of Mafia and I'm currently playing in another one. All other things equal, I'd rather give the newer players a longer game.

One thing I'll say, being honest, is that I think the thing in this game I'm best at (or at least feel the most confident about) is defending myself, so I tend to jump into that. It's easy for me to pick apart other people's arguments. I did that all the time in high school debate and college philosophy courses and really loved doing it. But I'm just not as good at scumhunting or at constructing a good argument in the first place.  So I play to my strengths and it inevitably makes me look scummy.

We all criticize him for this and he responds:

You really consider VT to be a roleclaim? It's a terrible play for me as mafia, as it removes my option of later claiming an actual role.  As town role, it's an ok claim if it keeps me from getting lynched but a very problematic one if I want to be believed later. As town though? Explain why it's anti-town for a VT to claim VT.

But as the mafia make that decision (about who is most likely to be a power role), they're presented with a whole big WIFOM. They only know for sure if they investigate me, in which case they'd know for sure anyway. I just ... don't think it's that big a deal.

And none of this explains why Axxle thinks it's worthy of a vote, because I can't see even a little bit why it makes sense for the mafia, for the reasons I explained earlier.

Oh look, I'm getting worked up again. Meh.

Later, he will call the claim a mistake. But at first, it's not a mistake. It's good strategy, he says.

I don't wish to debate this, but claiming a non-role does not seem to me on par with claiming a role, for various reasons. VT is what everyone's supposed to assume everyone else is anyway. The fact that I said it means nothing. You have no reason to believe or disbelieve me, nor do the mafia. It is, in my mind, very much like not claiming. In future games, I will avoid it because it clearly irks people. But really, I kinda think it's a nonissue.

I get town reads from both theorel and Glooble, and I don't get a town read from Grujah. The Grujah wagon seems to me to be the most authentic wagon out there. I don't think Grujah is actually online/around, so his lack of a defense is neither suspicious nor non-suspicious. But for now, I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Grujah

For the record, he was the third suspect in my readthrough anyway, and my suspicion of CF wasn't really doing anything/going anywhere (partly cause I got real distracted by the votes on me, my own meditation on defensiveness and town play, and, oh yeah, meatspace stuff, and didn't have the time/energy to actually pursue it.)

So, he's pivoting. And he makes sure to cast a vote. Jotheonah seems very, very, very concerned about dying. He wants to make it seem like he doesn't care, but he does. He wants somebody, anybody, to die instead of him. Here is so desperately trying to paint Grujah as this frontrunner suspect (in reality, Grujah is just one of a handful of more suspicious players).

Then, this:

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.

See, I would have thought that at least someone would read that question as hypothetical. But like, you're all sure I'd actually do it.


So say I'm town and the VT claim was an honest mistake (it was.)  Now if anyone but me gets lynched (according to lots of people) I'm a nighttime liability to the town. So in that case, I ask again, isn't it pro-town for me to facilitate my own lynch?

Please love me! I am pro-town! I am fine with dying! Except he clearly isn't. He hasn't committed to dying to nearly the same extent as, say, Morgrim in MII.

Next, recognizing how badly he's coming off here, he gets out of dodge.

Unfortunately I have to leave now and won't be back for a bit. I was hoping for a quick answer from pops, but it doesn't matter. I'll leave my vote on someone I think is scum.

Then, he tries to make it look like he is helping the town by casting suspicion on someone who has gone unnoticed: Axxle.

Well, as I'm likely to be lynched, and it's my own fault, and I deserve to be lynched, really, and all that stuff, I will go ahead and throw out my fourth and final suspect.

Unvote
Vote: Axxle

Just watch him. All through the game I've gotten this sense of needing to control the game, not wanting to let it get too chaotic. I know that doesn't always mean scum, but I've gotten a scummy vibe. And he's done a lot of things, down from posting those articles on, that serve the dual purpose of gaining our trust and regulating our behavior to his standards. For some reason that's where I want my vote to be when I flip town.

In reality, he is simply choosing a new target wisely. Axxle already has a vote from Galz, and he has started making himself look suspicious to the town. Grujah is clearly not a contender for the lynch today. Jo didn't really suspect Axxle--he's just betting on another horse. Lucky for him, this one goes somewhere, and there are now quite a few Axxle votes.

+1000 to Voltgloss for all of his flavor posts. I <3 them.

Anyone want to comment on the timing of Axxle's revote of me, happening as it did right as the 5th vote landed on his head?

And here he is trying to draw the conversation back to Axxle.

So, a few things stick out to me about Jo:

He committed a series of errors that he first calls good play and later admits to being errors.
He offered to self-lynch, but didn't.
He has tried to downplay how much he wants to be alive, but clearly wants to be alive.
He has desperately sought to join any bandwagon that could conceivably prop up so that someone else may die.

Both mafia and the town want to live, of course. If I were in danger of dying, I would fight tooth and nail to convince you all that I was a member of the town, regardless of what role I had. And I would expect that from Jo, too--indeed, I saw it in MII. The fact that he has tried to downplay how much he cares here, while simultaneously still doing all the things to keep himself alive--reads mafia to me. Big time.

Am I convinced? Not at all. But this is a lot of evidence to have against somebody in the first round, and it's enough to sway me.

[Galzria]

Then, this:

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.

Cutting out much of your post, but only because I agree with most of it. This here, however, I want to point out, is more akin to how TINAS played in M-I. Asking (or threatening) and then not doing. And we know the outcome of that. You were also VERY suspicious of TINAS over the play, so I don't think that you've changed at all (or that your suspicion is unjustified).

I believe I've said before, and I don't mind repeating:

I think Jo *could* be Mafia trying to play the "flipped-out" card that has hit townies in the past. I just think that I feel I'm more likely to hit Mafia lynching Axxle today than Jo. With that said, I have NO problems with seeing Jo die D1 as a Policy Lynch. If we don't discourage this type of play, from town and Mafia alike, we'll never know if it's truthful or bluffing. But for my money, I would *rather* kill a Mafia than enforce a Policy Lynch, hence my vote on Axxle, and not Jo right now.

[Glooble]

I bandwagoned at those times because I was being convinced by other people on it, and then pops and J did something stupid and scummy that pushed me over the edge to vote.  Can't check specifics because I'm on phone and limited on time.

This hurts your case, for me. Day one Mafia don't want to be leading bandwagons, that draws attention to them. Being "convinced by other people" gives you deniability while still leading to what you know to be a town lynch.

I had a very strong town read on you, but it's rapidly been going down as I've been trying to catch up.

That being said, a lot has happened since I've been gone, most notably this whole Axxle bandwagon. I'm not swayed enough to place vote six on Axxle just yet, but I'm now pretty sure Grujah is a bad day one lynch, so I'm gonna go ahead and unvote.  My reason being that there are at least two people (Axxle and j) who the town has a better case against based on available information.

I'm still getting a town read on j, but I'm now fully willing to admit that that could be based on what I know about him from real life and other Mafia games. The problem with gut feelings is you can't really limit which sources of information you use to reach them. SO I'm going to review the evidence and, if it feels appropriate, join one of the two viable bandwagons.

[jotheonah]

I have some quibbles with your analysis (though as I've said before, my play is indefensible, so I won't defend it. I will explain it as best I can).

I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?

You also seem to be saying it would be more pro-town of me to actually self-vote, but clearly that's laughable because everyone knows and agrees that it's bad play for a town player to vote for himself.

Finally you say I'm doing things to keep myself alive - but I'm really not. You guys have done that. The unvotes on me were sincere unvotes from people who now have town reads on me. If you're going to say that I manipulated those players into removing their votes, I think you have an obligation to indicate how I accomplished that feat. For that matter, where do I clearly want to be alive? My reaction to my lynch wagon was pretty much to disappear and disengage from the game (although part of that was RL obligations). I honestly did not expect to come back Wednesday morning and find myself still alive.

[O]

Hey guise... we can still lynch Popsofctown!

I don't like the old I'll-do-nothing-and-eventually-people-will-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy

[jotheonah]

inb4 someone says "but you posted this response so you're clearly trying to stay alive" because ugh.

[jotheonah]

Hey guise... we can still lynch Popsofctown!

I don't like the old I'll-do-nothing-and-eventually-people-will-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy

Me neither ... but you can't argue with results!

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey guise... we can still lynch Popsofctown!

I don't like the old I'll-do-nothing-and-eventually-people-will-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy

2 Suspects at a time O.  Pops will have to wait his turn!

[Robz888]

Then, this:

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.

Cutting out much of your post, but only because I agree with most of it. This here, however, I want to point out, is more akin to how TINAS played in M-I. Asking (or threatening) and then not doing. And we know the outcome of that. You were also VERY suspicious of TINAS over the play, so I don't think that you've changed at all (or that your suspicion is unjustified).

I believe I've said before, and I don't mind repeating:

I think Jo *could* be Mafia trying to play the "flipped-out" card that has hit townies in the past. I just think that I feel I'm more likely to hit Mafia lynching Axxle today than Jo. With that said, I have NO problems with seeing Jo die D1 as a Policy Lynch. If we don't discourage this type of play, from town and Mafia alike, we'll never know if it's truthful or bluffing. But for my money, I would *rather* kill a Mafia than enforce a Policy Lynch, hence my vote on Axxle, and not Jo right now.

That's true, and I was wrong about TINAS. But I was right in one way--he WAS lying about his role. It just so happened he was lying in a beneficial way. It was a crazy move, one that only someone like TINAS I think is capable of, and I doubt it's what Jo is doing. But I could be wrong.

So, I guess I'm just not totally sure what the case against Axxle is, other than he switched his votes at some incriminating times. Could someone please make the case?

[Robz888]

I have some quibbles with your analysis (though as I've said before, my play is indefensible, so I won't defend it. I will explain it as best I can).

I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?

Fair enough, I guess.

You also seem to be saying it would be more pro-town of me to actually self-vote, but clearly that's laughable because everyone knows and agrees that it's bad play for a town player to vote for himself.

Right, and yet a couple townspersons have not been able to help themselves and voted anyway. Because you have *restrained* yourself, it seems comparatively more suspicious, doesn't it?

Finally you say I'm doing things to keep myself alive - but I'm really not. You guys have done that. The unvotes on me were sincere unvotes from people who now have town reads on me. If you're going to say that I manipulated those players into removing their votes, I think you have an obligation to indicate how I accomplished that feat. For that matter, where do I clearly want to be alive? My reaction to my lynch wagon was pretty much to disappear and disengage from the game (although part of that was RL obligations). I honestly did not expect to come back Wednesday morning and find myself still alive.

My read of you is that you very much want to be alive, and are trying to play the part of indifferent, deferent townie. I don't think you are manipulating the people to unvote you. I think you just got lucky in that regard.

[O]

Then, this:

Question for pops:

Given how hilariously I've blundered everything up, is a self-vote for me at this point a pro-town move in your eyes?

That's the nail in the coffin for me. We have all seen that self-voters can be town members gone mad. Here, he is just trying to give that impression--town member gone mad--without actually casting a vote that makes him more likely to die. It's a calculated move to appear irrational. This reads obvious mafia to me.

Cutting out much of your post, but only because I agree with most of it. This here, however, I want to point out, is more akin to how TINAS played in M-I. Asking (or threatening) and then not doing. And we know the outcome of that. You were also VERY suspicious of TINAS over the play, so I don't think that you've changed at all (or that your suspicion is unjustified).

I believe I've said before, and I don't mind repeating:

I think Jo *could* be Mafia trying to play the "flipped-out" card that has hit townies in the past. I just think that I feel I'm more likely to hit Mafia lynching Axxle today than Jo. With that said, I have NO problems with seeing Jo die D1 as a Policy Lynch. If we don't discourage this type of play, from town and Mafia alike, we'll never know if it's truthful or bluffing. But for my money, I would *rather* kill a Mafia than enforce a Policy Lynch, hence my vote on Axxle, and not Jo right now.

That's true, and I was wrong about TINAS. But I was right in one way--he WAS lying about his role. It just so happened he was lying in a beneficial way. It was a crazy move, one that only someone like TINAS I think is capable of, and I doubt it's what Jo is doing. But I could be wrong.

So, I guess I'm just not totally sure what the case against Axxle is, other than he switched his votes at some incriminating times. Could someone please make the case?

There really doesn't seem to be much of one at all.

[Dsell]

I haven't thoroughly reviewed all of Axxle's posts and the case against him yet, so for now my opinion is perhaps a bit primitive, but oh well. I haven't found Axxle to be terribly scummy in this game. Since the very beginning, I have found him a tiny bit scummy, but at a level that makes me think he is probably town. Also, his scumminess level has not changed significantly throughout the game for me, so I continue to think he is most likely town.

A couple of things that have read slightly scummy:
Stifling theory conversation early
Stifling humor early
Jumping on the main bandwagons
Agreeing with me maaaybe just barely too much (perhaps less so in his second-to-last comment)

These things and the bandwagon forming against him mean I should definitely go back and review his case more, but I really doubt he's going to look like mafia to me, especially with much scummier characters around. Of course he could be, but all of those things that have struck me as odd could easily be a townie with a bit different playstyle. Which is what I'm heavily leaning towards right now.

[Dsell]

I never said the role claim was a good strategy. Those are your words. I said that I didn't see how it was a bad strategy. I asked people to explain that and they did. Later, I started referring to it as a mistake - deferring to the general wisdom that it's bad strategy. What is a mistake other than a bad strategy you didn't realize was bad at the time?

Just to be clear, in that post did you mean to reveal yourself as VT or was it an accident?

[jotheonah]

Because I wasn't thinking of a VT claim as a role claim per se (it's just what everyone is assumed to be) it didn't even register as a controversial thing when I posted it. I just wanted to say "hey, now that I think about it I'm ok with being lynched if it helps the town informationally"

In that statement, if you believe it, is kind of an inherent VT claim, because why would a power role townie be ok with being lynched? So the making it explicit was a mistake, but, like, if you imagine that post without the role claim, it basically reads the same to me.

Does that answer your question?

Either way - bad decision dinosaur. My town strategy was pretty much to see what would happen if I didn't self-censor at all, on the theory that the mafia would self-censor a lot so doing the opposite would make me look townish. I think the moral of the story is no, that doesn't work.

[Dsell]

@jo

Yes, it answers my question, but I'm still not sure that I believe it. It just sounded to me like you were sometimes saying it was an accident and sometimes saying "well it was my strategy and it doesn't matter either way." I wasn't clear on the point, so I wanted an official statement.

[Tables]

Okay, read up to now again (no idea how my last post actually managed to get through, the forum was crapping out for me). The more I read Axxle's posts now, the more of a scum read I'm getting on him. Some of those recent posts (from page 36 onwards) seem to ignore suspicion on him first, and where it is answered, his defences seem very poor. Asides from some town things he did early in the game (stifling theory discussion, attempting to stifle humour), he's contributed not a lot with each post. I haven't done a full check, but I think the only time he's made relatively long posts has been when people have prompted him, which feels like he's trying to avoid saying too much (even if I'm incorrect about this, at least most of his longer posts have been following prods).

That said, the bandwagon on him developed quite quickly, and I'm not confident enough to place a vote yet, especially considering my haphazard internet access. Although (sorry, this is slightly stream of consiousness) the voters seemed to all have legitimate reasons for their votes, and none of the bandwagoners were especially notorious at all - Frisk if my records are correct hasn't placed anything but a first vote on someone, until Axxle, Joth is Joth, Pops hasn't been bandwagoning at all, and I think that leaves SFS as the only one I'm really interested in.

[Glooble]

Okay, so going over the development of this Axxle bandwagon, I am starting to see people's points. His voting record makes him a very good scum candidate - he jumps on both bandwagons, at the best possible time to not draw attention - too early and ou're "leading the charge", too late and it looks like you're just trying to hammer before the town wises up. I imagine this is how Mafia reacts when a bandwagon develops on a townie - get your vote in before it loses steam, maybe help pump it up, make it look like the case is gaining momentum, etc.
The things that I said early on made him read very town to me are now looking like obviously calculated moves intended to gain allies. Posting articles for people to read does shape how many town members, especially those new to the game, will scum hunt in a particular way, which I originally thought was a poor mafia move, but it might be a brilliant one - if a significant number of townies are looking for particular scum tells, all the scum have to do is avoid those tells. Trying to make the town's procedures conform to a certain standard makes it much easier for scum to hide for the rest of the game, while also making Axxle look like a hero.
With potentially four scum, conventional wisdom says six votes is close to putting us in hammer territory. So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Pre-post edit: I was writing this up at the same time as Tables' post, and we seem to be reaching similar conclusions. Do with that what you will.)

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk if my records are correct hasn't placed anything but a first vote on someone, until Axxle, Joth is Joth, Pops hasn't been bandwagoning at all, and I think that leaves SFS as the only one I'm really interested in.

I can confirm that this is correct.  I feel alot more comfortable starting a vote on someone, because I know this is for my own personal suspicions, rather than potentially a mafia manipulator, and the 1st vote is alot safer than a later, from a "how much time do I have to monitor the situation just in case it gets out of control"

As for speed - I would say its been slower, but that just might be the forum downtime  Galz started banging this drum @ post 760, which was 2.5 days ago.  We're now almost 200 posts later.  The J stuff all seemed to pile on faster, but I'd have to go back and check.  We're also getting stuck @ 5 votes, instead of 6.

[Captain_Frisk]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

I'm with Galz (spider sense tingling!) that J is not off the hook - but I would assume that with at least 11 town, if we lynched Axxle AND he flips town, he'd get a strong consideration for some night time actions.

[O]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

I'm with Galz (spider sense tingling!) that J is not off the hook - but I would assume that with at least 11 town, if we lynched Axxle AND he flips town, he'd get a strong consideration for some night time actions.

The fact that Axxle has 5 votes against him with like.. absolutely no case against him.

Also, I found his mafia theory discussion pretty townish, even if I disagree with it.

[Dsell]

Can you provide anything that gives a town read on Axxle?  Any examples of what you would consider to be pro town play?

After looking at a bunch of Axxle's posts, I don't really have any examples of "really pro-town" play. I'm certainly not convinced that he's town but I'm also really unconvinced that he's mafia. I could conceivably see myself voting for him if a really strong case is made or if he says something that strikes me wrong, but at this point I wouldn't feel right about voting for him because I cannot justify voting for someone who I think is probably town over someone I feel strongly to be mafia.

[Dsell]

So basically, C_F, no I can't provide anything that makes me read Axxle as town. I definitely don't mean to defend him but I don't see what makes his case so strong.

[Dsell]

Oops, *I don't see what makes the case against him so strong.

[Robz888]

So casting vote six implies a level of conviction I'm still not comfortable with quite yet. I am close. If any Axxle voters have more concrete evidence to offer up, I will likely vote that way.

Take your time - we are truly in no rush.  I would also be wary of casting vote #6 as well.

So - we have some defenders.  RobZ, O, DSell - who are all unconvinced of the "case" against Axxle.

I wouldn't say that I am 'unconvinced' of the case against Axxle. I'm just not really sure what the case is in the first place, other than his vote switching. And I am convinced of the case against Jo.

[jotheonah]

This keeps happening:

Everyone who's voting for Axxle: "This is my case against Axxle"
O and RObz: "I don't get it. What's the case against Axxle?"

O and Robz, what don't you get here? Many people are answering your questions and you're acting as if they're not.

pops, where are you and what do you think about all this nonsense?

[O]

Because every "this is my case against Axxle" post seems to be a contentless post.

[jotheonah]

The posts contain words. Those words form sentences which have a meaning. That meaning is a rationale for voting for Axxle, a list of his plays that read as potentially scummy accompanied by explanations for why those plays make sense as mafia.

You can say those arguments are bad, that is one thing. But I am baffled by your assertion that the arguments are nonexistent. It seems quite odd.

[O]

Ok, here's the main argument I've gathered:

Axxle has been on 2x bandwagons, after coming out against bandwagons.

I have said things against bandwagons in the past. If I voted for Axxle, I would be on my second bandwagon.

Derp.

[Captain_Frisk]

. It seems quite odd.

We are talking about O here.

[Robz888]

No, I totally agree with O. Maybe I haven't been paying good enough attention--the forum being down really through me for a loop-- but it seems to me that every time I ask about why we suspect Axxle, I get a non-answer (like Jo's here). The fact that no one can explain why everyone thinks it's Axxle is a pretty good way to differentiate a mafia-driven bandwagon from an evidence-based one.

Right now, I feel like the case against Axxle is like the Jabberwocky project from Better Off Ted http://www.movieweb.com/tv/TEzL2CCG1TWHDE/jabberwocky

[jotheonah]

Could it just be that we're looking for a subtler case then you are?

Axxle's behavior matches the profile of a low-profile Day 1 mafia player, that's what we're all trying to say. He seems to say more than he actually says and he's opportunistic in his voting, even well couching it in other reasons.

If you're on the hunt for someone dripping lousy with scum tells, it looks like a meaningless case. But if you're looking for a competent, subtle Day 1 mafioso, Axxle seems to fit the bill perfectly.

[O]

If by subtler... you mean weaker to the point of being nonexistent.

Barring idiotic actions by Axxle it's hard to see myself being willing to hammer him.

[Galzria]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

It's all well and fine if you wish to IGNORE the case, but saying it isn't there is flat out wrong. There have also been a few others who have voiced concerns our suspicions, but not voted. This is, in my opinion, the strongest "bandwagon" that's rolled, because it's the only one that  HASN'T seemed to have people jumping to get on just for the sake of a lynch. At this point, if Axxle were to flip Mafia, it would be extremely telling. If he were to flip town, there would still be good information to be gained.

In comparison, if J flips Mafia, we gain little info since he shot himself basically, and if he flips town, it really doesn't help us, since there's enough suspicion from nearly EVERYBODY that nobody would look particularly scummy in light of his death.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

Unfortunately, Pops was the 5th vote.  That leaves 2 people with arguments, J (who could probably walk up here with someones username & password to verify the contents of the PM from Volt and no-one would believe him), SFS who's reasons were something akin to "I agree with CF", and pops, who gave no reason.

[jotheonah]

I believe Glooble gave a reason, but no vote.

[Galzria]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

Unfortunately, Pops was the 5th vote.  That leaves 2 people with arguments, J (who could probably walk up here with someones username & password to verify the contents of the PM from Volt and no-one would believe him), SFS who's reasons were something akin to "I agree with CF", and pops, who gave no reason.

Fair enough. Like I said, it's been a bit hard to follow. I know I've seen two separate cases though (mine and yours). Pops... I would like to hear more from on this, because he chimed in early that he thought Axxle was one of the scummiest people here. Outside of trying to dictate how everybody plays, and offering nothing himself, I'm curious what else Pops saw on Axxle.

[Galzria]

I believe Glooble gave a reason, but no vote.

Tables also said he was going to review, but believed Axxle was showing scummy behavior.

[popsofctown]

Because I wasn't thinking of a VT claim as a role claim per se (it's just what everyone is assumed to be) it didn't even register as a controversial thing when I posted it. I just wanted to say "hey, now that I think about it I'm ok with being lynched if it helps the town informationally"

In that statement, if you believe it, is kind of an inherent VT claim, because why would a power role townie be ok with being lynched? So the making it explicit was a mistake, but, like, if you imagine that post without the role claim, it basically reads the same to me.

Does that answer your question?

Either way - bad decision dinosaur. My town strategy was pretty much to see what would happen if I didn't self-censor at all, on the theory that the mafia would self-censor a lot so doing the opposite would make me look townish. I think the moral of the story is no, that doesn't work.

It does work, it's a very powerful strategy to adopt.  It just doesn't work in that specific sphere, discussing whether you're a power role.  It would have been ten times better if you described your happy go lucky strategy without the explicit VT claim - perhaps you're a weak power role, and the thought still occurred to you, scum could still be unsure whom to shoot.

You do highlight an interesting aspect of mafia though, a cop is never capable of taking the game lightheartedly and risking death because he knows he's valuable.  This often causes him to spray survivalist tells that make him seem like scum.  In one theme game in particular, power roles were shuffled in a random (but crazily balanced) way, and I got both cop and vig.  It was the ultimate combo and I was soooo focused on surviving that I reached L-1 day 1.  I had to dayvig scum day 2 to convince people I was town.   

This isn't a caught up post just really wanted to encourage transparency.

[theorel]

Composed at post #946.  I won't review before submitting no matter what the forum tells me to do.

I'm biased...I think you're mafia, so I'm not actually reconsidering my position.  You've tried to pick apart my argument which makes me naturally want to defend it.  We could go back and forth, but what's the point?  You could ignore me, and I could read that as deflecting.  You could go black, and I could point out that you went away from a losing argument and make Robz vote for you.  There is no case in which your words have any value to me...if i make exceptions I'll just be persecuting personalities that I disagree with.  And you're not even under pressure yet.

this teaches me not to skim over very long posts; I missed this bit of ridiculousness. Mafia mistake or arrogant + bad town play to say "and make Robz vote for you"? Probably arrogant town

"so I'm not actually reconsidering my position"

Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.

Also in response to Robz's following post.

I'm going to respond to this real quick since it's obviously being misunderstood:  It was sarcasm.  Sorry, I thought it would be obvious.  The reasoning is as follows: If DSell backed down, he'd be going dark after losing an argument.  Robz stated that this was one of the things he looks for as mafia tell (admittedly from someone under pressure which is not how I would characterize DSell).  So if he goes dark, [sarcasm] Robz has to vote for him[/sarcasm].  It's a totally stupid argument which is why I thought it was obvious sarcasm.

As to the strongheadedness of not listening to the defender, I consider it less-so than Robz's strong-headedness of never changing his vote.  At least I'm willing to listen to others.

---
Re: Axxle-wagon.
-Axxle is being judged on his actions not his rhetoric.  Robz: you seem very clearly to judge words more than acts, and think of posts as evidence.  Not surprising you don't see this.
-The people joining the bandwagon seem to be reviewing the evidence and drawing their own conclusions.  Often citing different reasons for thinking he's mafia.  This reads especially townie, because good townie's are going to look for evidence not simply agree with others' evidence.  Mafia will agree with others where possible, to make the townie feel more united with them.

-Short story, the Axxle wagon seems like several people that may not agree with each other on specifics finding the same person suspicious.  They aren't a unified front excepting that they all think Axxle is likely enough to be mafia to merit a vote.

-Concerns, conclusions, and things to watch for:  If there are several mafia, I find it hard to believe that he won't get bussed.  I mean if they manage a joth lynch, and joth flips town, that'll look pretty bad.  If they're all opposed to Axxle, and he flips mafia, that'll look pretty bad too.  I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear.  i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town.  There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters).  If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.  I'll review everything in the morning...I don't honestly think we'll hit on a more likely target, but I am of the opinion that longer days are better, so I won't push it, unless discussion seems to go downhill.

DSell, O, Robz, and clearly Axxle stand opposed.  Who else is in the game? (I'm a little tired from young child not willingly going to bed last night, and I am definitely not a night-person) 

@Green-any new comments? (specifically about current events, i.e. Axxle)

@Insomniac: forum issues and all notwithstanding, I'd still love to see your longer post.

@Grujah: anything?  You've been real quiet lately...let's see ah, you wanted more specific...Okay: what do you think of the current situation?  In addition, who do you think is scummy?  You didn't vote on jo, you're not weighing in on Axxle.  Forum's been down a lot lately, so I won't hold your silence against you.  You felt you were easily manipulated earlier...Well, I'd like to hear something original from you.  I'll give you the challenge I didn't give before but which Green took on of his own accord: who are the 4 scummiest-sounding players in your opinion (you don't even need good reasons).

[popsofctown]

brb looking at Axxle sketchiness

[popsofctown]

Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?

"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up.  Really.  Pinky promise. 
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"


@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way.  Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast.  That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.

Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun.  What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.

Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea.  It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.

Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.

Post 359 is literally the first time Axxle says something is scummy or townish.  Worthy of note is that his early posts described joth's mafia claim as anti-town, not as a scumtell.  He doesn't perceive the VT claim in the same way, apparently, and that suggests he made an opportunistic decision to dislike the VT claim.

So this is post 359.  Note he asks, "does anyone else interpret this post this way?"  Even though this is analysis (weak analysis) he loses points overall for trying to gauge the viability theorel's lynch without voting him or putting his opinion out more firmly.  This is fifth grade stuff.

359 is the first time he does anything but theory.

i'll look at other stuff too to show you guys

[Robz888]

I don't at all believe that my case is "nonexistant", nor do I believe C.F.'s is. I'm not as familiar with the cases brought by J, SFS and... Theorel? Gloobel? I don't recall who has the 5th vote (as has been noted, the forum's rocky status has me slightly disorientated).

It's all well and fine if you wish to IGNORE the case, but saying it isn't there is flat out wrong. There have also been a few others who have voiced concerns our suspicions, but not voted. This is, in my opinion, the strongest "bandwagon" that's rolled, because it's the only one that  HASN'T seemed to have people jumping to get on just for the sake of a lynch. At this point, if Axxle were to flip Mafia, it would be extremely telling. If he were to flip town, there would still be good information to be gained.

I don't believe the case against axxle is non-existent. Rather, I am forced to draw that conclusion because not a single member of the Lynch Axxle multitude can even list a few bullet points for why we should suspect him.

Can anybody summarize? Write 150 words on it?

-Short story, the Axxle wagon seems like several people that may not agree with each other on specifics finding the same person suspicious.  They aren't a unified front excepting that they all think Axxle is likely enough to be mafia to merit a vote.

I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.

[Robz888]

Does anyone else get this vibe from Theorel's post?

"Hey guys, I'll be lurking, but if you want to let me know your stance on everything I'll be sure to copy your thoughts exactly. Oh, and let me live to Day 2 and then I promise to keep up.  Really.  Pinky promise. 
Yours truly, Mafia XOXO"


@O: Someone asked how people suggest how to actively scumhunt, and this is one way.  Some humor is fine, but it gets distracting very fast.  That line of trollvotes was a big example of that.

Pre-edit: If I was mafia and saw that everyone was taking this game as a joke and not seriously I'd turn off any tactics I had and just join in on the fun.  What mistakes are you going to make if you do that? None unless your partners don't do the same and end up getting caught.

Pre-edit2: @Glooble: Creating bandwagons to get information is a very good idea.  It's what I tried to fake in Mafia I and ultimately got caught doing.

Too many preedits, this is after gloobles last post.

Post 359 is literally the first time Axxle says something is scummy or townish.  Worthy of note is that his early posts described joth's mafia claim as anti-town, not as a scumtell.  He doesn't perceive the VT claim in the same way, apparently, and that suggests he made an opportunistic decision to dislike the VT claim.

So this is post 359.  Note he asks, "does anyone else interpret this post this way?"  Even though this is analysis (weak analysis) he loses points overall for trying to gauge the viability theorel's lynch without voting him or putting his opinion out more firmly.  This is fifth grade stuff.

359 is the first time he does anything but theory.

i'll look at other stuff too to show you guys

Thank you, stuff like this is what I wanted.

[theorel]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

When the game first began, I was asking questions of most the people online - Theory questions, sure, but still making them take a stance on issues - Axxle, above and beyond refusing to take part, actively discouraged my form of investigation and scumhunting as useless and a waste of time. In particular, the question I had been asking was along the lines of "What are your feelings on game length? With 3 weeks, we have "as much time as we want" to allow for investigation, or do you feel a quick lynch is good for the town if it presents itself?"

When Jo got up to 6 votes (and went no further), Axxle suddenly jumped in with his thoughts "Hey, lets get this over with. No need to drag things on" - Now hey, I don't disagree with this. As a matter of fact, I actively believe this is the best form of play. What I disagree with is his TIMING. He actively refused to take a stance early, and then threw that out there when it could have the most potential impact. Almost everybody else, I can refer back to how they feel, and hold them accountable to their actions now. But Axxle's LACK of accountability, more, his REFUSAL to allow for accountability, struck me as very very scummy.

Add in to that the fact that he was vote #5 on Pops, and vote #4 on Jotheonah (both times with relatively little reasoning), and it was enough for me to make my case and cast my vote. Others have come out with their own reasons, some I think are valid, some not quite so much. But his play, to me, has not been consistent with honesty that town has no reason NOT to have.

@Robz: did you miss it?  here's one...took about 5 seconds to find.

[Galzria]

My case (different than others), is laid out mostly in post #760, but the gist of it was this:

When the game first began, I was asking questions of most the people online - Theory questions, sure, but still making them take a stance on issues - Axxle, above and beyond refusing to take part, actively discouraged my form of investigation and scumhunting as useless and a waste of time. In particular, the question I had been asking was along the lines of "What are your feelings on game length? With 3 weeks, we have "as much time as we want" to allow for investigation, or do you feel a quick lynch is good for the town if it presents itself?"

When Jo got up to 6 votes (and went no further), Axxle suddenly jumped in with his thoughts "Hey, lets get this over with. No need to drag things on" - Now hey, I don't disagree with this. As a matter of fact, I actively believe this is the best form of play. What I disagree with is his TIMING. He actively refused to take a stance early, and then threw that out there when it could have the most potential impact. Almost everybody else, I can refer back to how they feel, and hold them accountable to their actions now. But Axxle's LACK of accountability, more, his REFUSAL to allow for accountability, struck me as very very scummy.

Add in to that the fact that he was vote #5 on Pops, and vote #4 on Jotheonah (both times with relatively little reasoning), and it was enough for me to make my case and cast my vote. Others have come out with their own reasons, some I think are valid, some not quite so much. But his play, to me, has not been consistent with honesty that town has no reason NOT to have.

[popsofctown]

Insomniac - Your timing is impeccable. Not lurking, just getting caught up.  Played golf this morning and this is the first time I've been able to read since confirming my role last night.  6 new pages, wow. Someone expressed concern that this would be longer than MIII, I suspect it will be very long indeed with 15 of us.

Voltgloss - Thanks for moderating this, with all you have going on.

fluff

Axxle - Thanks for the link to the two articles.  I found the second article to be particularly important.

slight townread (for me)

Couple of housekeeping things before I begin the substantive part of my post:
1) I am a newbie, having never played this game at all in any format.
2) I have created a temporary signature to define my abbreviations for people's names. If your name is not abbreviated in my signature, I will do my best to use it in its entirety.  I did this because someone in an earlier post used the salutation "@G", and there are 4 names in this game that start with "G".
3) I'm not going to read MI or MII (with the exception of checking the two starting posts, to verify the absence of the players in my first question below), and I will likely abandon my reading of MIII, which is currently in Night 1.
4) My gender is male, if it helps anyone avoid awkward choices of pronoun.
5) I am on EDT in the US, if that is useful info for anyone in evaluating posting patterns. (God, I'm such a data whore).

fluff

Now, on to substance:

@Theo, Gloob, Green:  You were not in MI or MII or MIII.  Have you played Forum Mafia before?  Have you played IRL?

That isn't substance...

After reading the second article that Axxle suggested, I am of the opinion that random voting on Day 1 is anti-town.  Day 1 is indeed a time for to be as non random as possible.  So, I'll be bold:

VOTE: O, because he will be voting randomly.

Pre-post addendum:  OMG, while I'm wrestling with this, another full page?  I started this literally one minute after #211.

Not original, and he complains later about O not addressing it.  We all know O's random, O most of all.


I really don't see how you can get a town read off this guy.  I'm not getting a strong mafia read off him but pops, can you explain a bit.  Or is it all just gut.

Here he discusses SFS.  He totally fails to guess what mainly gave me a townread on SFS, not even quoting his post about joking.  There's a reason I didn't always explain myself - to see who had a townie mind capable of thinking alike, and who didn't.  I think this whole process was faked - he already knows SFS is town.

[Galzria]

Haha, rofl. Whoops. Damn forum didn't give me warning.

[theorel]

@My previous post.  I was only pointing out a lynch posse's argument post that you missed...not citing that I agree with it.  I didn't reread before I posted, and I'm not doing so now.  As stated earlier I'll review in the morning.

@Galz: given this has happened a few other times...I wonder if forum doesn't warn for pure quote-posts.  I think the rest have been that too.

[Captain_Frisk]

I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.

Galz and I have already given you a decent concise post each.  Pops has given you some quotes - that you just as easily could have followed - Axxle's post history is a few clicks away.  Axxle is my top suspect because i do not consider J's "poor" town play to be mafia, or if it is, something I don't expect to last very long into Day 2.  He has given us some very clear and specific things to ding him on, and that strikes me as even play as that is even worse Mafia than it is as Town.

I am not enjoying seeing you and G on opposite sides of an argument.

[Robz888]

I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.

Galz and I have already given you a decent concise post each.  Pops has given you some quotes - that you just as easily could have followed - Axxle's post history is a few clicks away.  Axxle is my top suspect because i do not consider J's "poor" town play to be mafia, or if it is, something I don't expect to last very long into Day 2.  He has given us some very clear and specific things to ding him on, and that strikes me as even play as that is even worse Mafia than it is as Town.

I am not enjoying seeing you and G on opposite sides of an argument.

I am seeing the arguments being posted now. Perhaps I missed them the first time around. Anyway, I thought for a minute that the lack of response to my request for answers was possibly indicative of a mafia-led bandwagon against Axxle. I see now that there's more to the reasons that I previously thought.

But look, Axxle was a member of the Mafia in M1. I say he played pretty boldly, and changed his vote a few times in Round 1 (between TINAS, unvote, and theory). Ultimately, this was his undoing, as he should have just kept for lynching TINAS. If he were mafia in this game, would be play similarly?

[popsofctown]

sorry i got bored I'm not gonna cover the later quotes.  Work it out for yourselves.  He is watching the game instead of playing.

[jotheonah]

I agree that there is a surprisingly unified anti-Axxle group. It is especially surprising, given that not one of these people has responded to my request: Please just tell me why, specifically, he is the top suspect.

Galz and I have already given you a decent concise post each.  Pops has given you some quotes - that you just as easily could have followed - Axxle's post history is a few clicks away.  Axxle is my top suspect because i do not consider J's "poor" town play to be mafia, or if it is, something I don't expect to last very long into Day 2.  He has given us some very clear and specific things to ding him on, and that strikes me as even play as that is even worse Mafia than it is as Town.

I am not enjoying seeing you and G on opposite sides of an argument.

I am seeing the arguments being posted now. Perhaps I missed them the first time around. Anyway, I thought for a minute that the lack of response to my request for answers was possibly indicative of a mafia-led bandwagon against Axxle. I see now that there's more to the reasons that I previously thought.

But look, Axxle was a member of the Mafia in M1. I say he played pretty boldly, and changed his vote a few times in Round 1 (between TINAS, unvote, and theory). Ultimately, this was his undoing, as he should have just kept for lynching TINAS. If he were mafia in this game, would be play similarly?

The more I play here, the less I think metamafia is productive.

[Insomniac]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

[Glooble]

It's too obvious, and I don't think he's experienced enough to be double-bluffing us.

I would agree if Robz hadn't called him out on his vote. Now, I'm not sure.

It may be my fault.  The article I linked to said "bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good" and he probably took that to heart not knowing the negative stigma of bandwagons we've created in the past few games.

Axxle is referring to this quote from the article he posted:

"Remember, bandwagons are good, pressure is good, votes are good. These are all things that create situations that are serious in game, and require reactions from not only the player who is being bandwagoned, but the other players in the game. Just because something is based on a low threshold for a vote does not mean it can’t be serious and have in game repercussions. By creating band wagons over a minorly scummy thing, you take the game out of the area of randomness, and into the realm of information. As people react to these bandwagons, as well as votes, you will get more information, which will create less random votes, and less random bandwagons. This is how we progress to better information. "

Grujah's quick jumping on the bandwagon pulled votes (mine included) to him. Axxle suggests that the articles he posted might be to blame. It seems to me like a really brilliant way to get new players to behave in a scummy way, and draw town attention away from the real mafia. Axxle came right out of the gate with those articles. I was taken in at first. I even commented that he was being so helpful trying to show the town how to scum hunt. But now it reeks to me of a calculated move to steer the tactics of the town, thereby making them easier to manipulate, while making himself look relatively clean.

Of course the gaping whole in this theory is that Axxle himself points out the article as a possible explanation for Grujah's behavior. If he were Mafia, I don't think he would have done that.

[popsofctown]

Please don't quote shea again

[Galzria]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.

[popsofctown]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.

No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.

[Galzria]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.

No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.

Does that change my point?

[O]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.

No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.

I thought we all agreed with Captain Frisk, and that scum were supposed to stay in the middle of post count/length? [/sarcasm].

I remain unconvinced by the strawman arguments against Axxle. Popsofctown is still my vote.

[Voltgloss]

SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables, and Grujah searched the deceased Lord's Throne Room, hoping for the key, or clues, or both.

When that didn't work, they did it again. 

Vote Count 1-13

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown

Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT 

[Insomniac]

I don't do long posts on iPhone. Haven't been home for 2 days will try to make a big one tonight in the next 3 hours summarizing my thoughts though I don't have much.

[Galzria]

I don't do long posts on iPhone. Haven't been home for 2 days will try to make a big one tonight in the next 3 hours summarizing my thoughts though I don't have much.

That would indeed be nice, yes. I know you're capable of making strong arguments.

[Galzria]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

It would be nice to get a post longer than 5 lines long from you. Might help us get somewhere new.

No, he's doing it right, it's best for scum to say as little as possible.

I thought we all agreed with Captain Frisk, and that scum were supposed to stay in the middle of post count/length? [/sarcasm].

I remain unconvinced by the strawman arguments against Axxle. Popsofctown is still my vote.

I'm not surprised.

[Glooble]

Pretty sure we aren't getting anywhere new and interesting until day 1 ends. I like mafia after day 1 alot more than day 1 mafia

This is actually one of the main reasons I'm thinking strongly about voting Axxle.

Reading back, I just realized Galzria has been building a case against Axxle since page 7 (post 166) before many of us had even logged on. In that case he's upset because Axxle is shutting down discussions about theory. This supports my previous post - by posting the articles then discouraging theoretical discussion, it moves the new players even more towards "play Mafia in this certain way".

Controlling other people's play style is far more useful for scum than for town.

Galz has been riding Axxle hard (Look back, you'll see him voting Axxle at least four times, posts 166,201,258 and the most recent one which I can't find right now). If Axxle flips town, I feel like Galz will have a big red target painted on his back in day 2. Just an observation.

[Axxle]

I think Galz and my difference in philosophy in how the game should start made him very critical of my posts.  If I flip town I don't want him to be an automatic lynch, you should evaluate all the players on their own merit.

I strongly agree with this statement by Theorel, and was actually going to bring it up myself if I got closer to being lynched:

I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear.  i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town.  There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters).  If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.

[O]

I think Galz and my difference in philosophy in how the game should start made him very critical of my posts.  If I flip town I don't want him to be an automatic lynch, you should evaluate all the players on their own merit.

I strongly agree with this statement by Theorel, and was actually going to bring it up myself if I got closer to being lynched:

I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear.  i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town.  There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters).  If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.

Really? It sounds mostly like Theorel is covering himself and deflecting suspicions elsewhere.

I mean, if mafia were to lead a bandwagon against someone and it stalled, that's exactly what they would say when the person flipped town.

[O]

post-Edit: Theorel hasn't even voted for Axxle..

[popsofctown]

"If I flip town" can be simplified to "if I flip" or "if I'm lynched", when the person speaking is town.  Sometimes these little Freudian things turn out well, sometimes they don't.  But  like the bonus points here.

[popsofctown]

Hey O while you're here y u no wanna be frayends?

[O]

Hey O while you're here y u no wanna be frayends?

Don't worry, I'm planning to switch to Theorel...

actually, I'm not planning

Vote: Theorel for trying to set up a cover for himself before he votes for Axxle, who he knows is town.

[popsofctown]

Does that mean we're frayends now?

[O]

Does that mean we're frayends now?

we're frenemies

[Galzria]

Does that mean we're frayends now?

we're frenemies

O doesn't trust anybody outside of shooting range.

[O]

Post moar guise

1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down.

[Galzria]

By the way, Glooble, I have NOT voted Axxle 4 times.

I did in  posts: #166, #258, and #760.

The first vote was a feeler vote. The second because I reconsidered his responses to the first (post #201 that you site was actually the UNVOTE inbetween). The last one was only after he posted his comment on "theory" to push a stalling lynch along. A stance on said "theory" he refused to give early on (and was the cause for my original vote).

If you're going to setup redirectional arguments at me, please get them right.

[Galzria]

Post moar guise

1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down.

 http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats

Top 10 topics by reply's.

Gogogo!

[O]

By the way, Glooble, I have NOT voted Axxle 4 times.

I did in  posts: #166, #258, and #760.

The first vote was a feeler vote. The second because I reconsidered his responses to the first (post #201 that you site was actually the UNVOTE inbetween). The last one was only after he posted his comment on "theory" to push a stalling lynch along. A stance on said "theory" he refused to give early on (and was the cause for my original vote).

If you're going to setup redirectional arguments at me, please get them right.

I say we break Galzria again! It's such a fun activity.

[Galzria]

By the way, Glooble, I have NOT voted Axxle 4 times.

I did in  posts: #166, #258, and #760.

The first vote was a feeler vote. The second because I reconsidered his responses to the first (post #201 that you site was actually the UNVOTE inbetween). The last one was only after he posted his comment on "theory" to push a stalling lynch along. A stance on said "theory" he refused to give early on (and was the cause for my original vote).

If you're going to setup redirectional arguments at me, please get them right.

I say we break Galzria again! It's such a fun activity.

Cheers to that.

[Axxle]

J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.

Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.

[O]

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

[Axxle]

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

Me or everyone?

I don't mind it, but if Theorel is scum, it's more likely he's covering for his mafiapals instead of planning on voting for me.

[Galzria]

J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.

Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.

Well, you for starters. It's the core to my vote and argument against you. I feel that your use of "theory" (If we should continue D1 when we could lynch for the "sole purpose" of continuing discussion) post went against your words early on of such information being irrelevant.

I have no problem with your belief in and of itself, and had you stated it way back at post #100, I would never have voted for you the first time. But timing is everything, and your usage of that platform came at a time when it *could have* (and was obviously meant to) had an impact.

After you, it's a tossup. Dsell has some interesting things going on (outside of misinterpretations by others). So does Theorel. J certainly raises flags still. But right now you're top of my list.

[O]

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

Me or everyone?

I don't mind it, but if Theorel is scum, it's more likely he's covering for his mafiapals instead of planning on voting for me.

maybe. It'd be an interesting gambit though

[Axxle]

J, I believe the people who SAY things that are Pro-Town, but DO things that invariably have a divisive outcome to appear scummy. I look for people who's actions don't meet their words.

Galzria, who would you say matches this most, just curious.

Well, you for starters. It's the core to my vote and argument against you. I feel that your use of "theory" (If we should continue D1 when we could lynch for the "sole purpose" of continuing discussion) post went against your words early on of such information being irrelevant.

I have no problem with your belief in and of itself, and had you stated it way back at post #100, I would never have voted for you the first time. But timing is everything, and your usage of that platform came at a time when it *could have* (and was obviously meant to) had an impact.

After you, it's a tossup. Dsell has some interesting things going on (outside of misinterpretations by others). So does Theorel. J certainly raises flags still. But right now you're top of my list.

Ok, if you said anyone other than me I'd have been surprised.  I wanted to make sure that you are actually following your philosophy.  What specifically have the others done that is counter to what they say?

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

Me or everyone?

I don't mind it, but if Theorel is scum, it's more likely he's covering for his mafiapals instead of planning on voting for me.

maybe. It'd be an interesting gambit though

I'd say as soon as he said it, it would completely invalidate the thought for anyone who votes for me afterwards including him, since mafia now have the idea.

[Dsell]

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

Other than covering himself for (maybe) voting for Axxle in the future, is there anything Theorel's done to make you think he's mafia instead of town? I was getting a strong town read on him for a while, and while he has been annoying more recently I still suspect he's town. He's definitely said a few things that have struck me wrong but that could be because he has badly misrepresented me. But I definitely don't think he's nearly as suspicious as jotheonah.

[Axxle]

What specifically have the others done that is counter to what they say?

Off the top of your head of course, I don't need or want you to dig up quotes.

[Axxle]

ynoresponsetomyTheorelvote?

Other than covering himself for (maybe) voting for Axxle in the future, is there anything Theorel's done to make you think he's mafia instead of town? I was getting a strong town read on him for a while, and while he has been annoying more recently I still suspect he's town. He's definitely said a few things that have struck me wrong but that could be because he has badly misrepresented me. But I definitely don't think he's nearly as suspicious as jotheonah.

I really need to set the time to look through Theorel's posts again and see if he's misrepresenting anyone else.  That bothered me too.

[O]

He 1) Misrepresented Robz and 2) covered himself in his vote for Axxle

[Galzria]

@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.

But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.

[O]

@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.

But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.

I presented a case, why don't you either refute it or agree with it.

[Galzria]

@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.

But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.

I presented a case, why don't you either refute it or agree with it.

Seemed rather non-existant to me.

[Axxle]

Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.

[Axxle]

Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.

What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.

[O]

@Axxle, outside of J, nothing the others have done has been egregious enough for me to comment on at this time. I don't believe in naming names and spreading suspicion. If I want information, I'll attempt to go and get it. If I'm ready to make an argument, I'll present the things I feel are relevant.

But I won't throw a "what if" case together for everyone that allows the Mafia to pick and choose arguments that look good. Especially because there is a high likelihood that some of the people that I might suspect, are known non-scum to the Mafia.

I presented a case, why don't you either refute it or agree with it.

Seemed rather non-existant to me.

So misrepresentation and creating pathetic, illogical hedges (I mean really, yes it's POSSIBLE and even not together too unlikely that any bandwagon is devoid of mafia, but to CLAIM one is such before a flip even occurs..) is less convincing than "oh he seems to have bandwagoned twice".

[Dsell]

He 1) Misrepresented Robz and 2) covered himself in his vote for Axxle

This is like...nothing compared to what we have on jo, or even Axxle. I mean yeah it's bad, but really? His analysis is unhelpful but I don't see how you can think he's the most likely mafioso.

[Galzria]

Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.

What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.

I'm comfortable enough with my own reads right now.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

UP TO DATE AS OF #976

@Robz - The reasons for my vote for Axxle are not so much a "case" but small pieces of things that, in total, make me believe he's more likely to be mafia than anyone else right now.

First small thing - The points in Galz's post at #760 (p31).  The dichotomy between words and actions struck a chord.  (In fact, I was surprised it didn't generate much notice, even with my asking (at #807) everyone to comment).

2nd small thing - CF's final point #875 (p36) tipped me enough to actually move my vote. (Interesting, I see that his quote of my post was another chance for everyone to read of my request at #807.) So at 883 I voted Axxle, in what appears to be the last post before the site went down.

Aside: I also just noticed, in reviewing, that Axxle posted at #882 while I was composing what would become 883.  I guess I hadn't read it clearly, or missed it. In the post, Axxle says  "I have 3 votes on me, Galz, J and now CF, correcting an assertion of CF's that there were 2 votes on him."  I think I've proven that I'm all in favor of correcting the record, but to this didn't read that way - this had the tone of "ok, partner(s), pay attention here, we don't want this getting out of hand". Axxle then mentions needing to review DSell and J material. 

Five-ish hours later the site comes up, and in the next post (at #884) things get interesting: CF says something to Axxle that struck me as odd: "Ooops, forgot about J's vote".  I again attribute tone, and what I get is a combination of "Uh-oh, I didn't mean to take it to 3, I thought I would only be making it 2 votes" and "there there youngster, not to worry, we've got this under control, let me give you something to take your mind off your predicament".  His next statement is "It's getting pretty hot in here - Axxle, I would like to see your thoughts on the J / DSell situation."  I read the first part as "I'll make a joke, so you should be able to relax a little" and the second part as "yes, you've foreshadowed your deflection, I'll put the same two names in front of everyone as you did" (though this might be a legit request for substance, as CF's previous vote had indeed been on DSell).  If I take it a step further, CF's next part smells to me also, when he asks of Axxle "Also - in your mind - what is the value of the pressure that is placed on people as votes pile up.  What are you looking for that you think would be different if they felt like the votes would not go through?".  It smells like "don't crack, they are only gathering information, think about what they are looking for as the pressure builds, and don't do that" rather than an actual request for substance. 

Axxle's next post (#889) begins with almost studied indifference "I feel like DSell hasn't really said a whole lot of anything.", and more stuff, an "I like this post" with a quote, and then another deflection: the FOS at Theo.  After all, we don't want to miss yet another possible person to consider.  Overall I just get a mafia vibe, I'm going with my gut as much as anything here.  There's more that has come since - Pops post at #958 I find compelling now, and I don't think THAT is confirmation bias. Axxle himself in #912 seems halfhearted, bringing up Jo again, and Theo, so those two stay on the radar, the nonchalance again with "I guess its time for more defense"

As for Jo - You have now made, in #913, a pretty good case against him, and I've not dismissed him (hell I haven't dismissed you yet), but he's not quite as smelly to me as Axxle is right now.  And now CF is in a different light for me, so I need to go back and look at some things. The consensus appears to be that Day 1 is too early to start thinking about pairs, but I'm wondering...

Sorry this took so long to write, there were numerous RL interruptions.

[O]

Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.

What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.

I'm comfortable enough with my own reads right now.

Without making any illegal references... don't get cocky  I really don't want to have to campaign for a Galzria lynch

[O]

Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.

[Dsell]

(I mean really, yes it's POSSIBLE and even not together too unlikely that any bandwagon is devoid of mafia, but to CLAIM one is such before a flip even occurs..)

This is indeed odd but he's made a couple weird unsubstantiated claims so I think this could be just a potential analysis of the situation. I thought it was a really silly claim too, though. You can say that about literally every bandwagon.

Here is the specific quote I'm talking about:

I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear.  i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town.  There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters).  If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.

[O]

(I mean really, yes it's POSSIBLE and even not together too unlikely that any bandwagon is devoid of mafia, but to CLAIM one is such before a flip even occurs..)

This is indeed odd but he's made a couple weird unsubstantiated claims so I think this could be just a potential analysis of the situation. I thought it was a really silly claim too, though. You can say that about literally every bandwagon.

Here is the specific quote I'm talking about:

I'm a little worried Axxle is town, and the mafia are steering clear.  i.e. this is a town-wagon, but it's against town.  There are already 8 people suspicious of Axxle (Glooble, Tables, and me as current non-voters).  If he's town, and mafia just steer-clear they may need to supply only 0-or-1 votes and watch the fallout.

That's what I was referring to. That's the post that made me vote for Theorel.

[Galzria]

Misrepresentation is either misunderstanding or lying, if the latter it seems pretty serious to me.

What I mean is you shouldn't just dismiss it.

I'm comfortable enough with my own reads right now.

Without making any illegal references... don't get cocky  I really don't want to have to campaign for a Galzria lynch

I'll say the same thing here I did to Jothonah. Empty threats will not make me back down.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.

Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines.  I'm told fluff is bad.

[O]

Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.

Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines.  I'm told fluff is bad.

I don't think you understand what the standard definition of "fluff" is if you think shorter posts are fluffier than longer posts.

[Axxle]

@SFS: That is a very nice conspiracy theory regarding me and CF.  I enjoyed reading it.

@Galz: It feels like you want all discussion to be about me and J.  Is that correct?  Are you willing to discuss the possibility of other players being mafia?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.

Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines.  I'm told fluff is bad.

I don't think you understand what the standard definition of "fluff" is if you think shorter posts are fluffier than longer posts.

Perhaps, but I wasnt wowed by:

at 12:30 - "Post moar guise

1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down."

Or, at 12:17: "we're frenemies"

Or, well to go on would be ... fluff in your eyes.

[O]

Aww... poor captain frisk. I posted and posted and I finally made SFS abandon him.

Oh, I guess you ARE technically posting - but of your last 25 posts, only 3 are longer than 2 lines.  I'm told fluff is bad.

I don't think you understand what the standard definition of "fluff" is if you think shorter posts are fluffier than longer posts.

Perhaps, but I wasnt wowed by:

at 12:30 - "Post moar guise

1) We need to overtake Mafia III in post count
2) Isotropic is still down."

Or, at 12:17: "we're frenemies"

Or, well to go on would be ... fluff in your eyes.

So... Popsofctowns asking me if we were "freyends" wasn't fluff?

I like to have fun while I play mafia, I'm sorry if that offends you.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O.  Have fun everyone.

[O]

I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O.  Have fun everyone.

Damn right you are! 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O.  Have fun everyone.

Damn right you are! 

OOOOOOKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY, you win. (sullenness ensues in the SFS household)

[Galzria]

@SFS: That is a very nice conspiracy theory regarding me and CF.  I enjoyed reading it.

@Galz: It feels like you want all discussion to be about me and J.  Is that correct?  Are you willing to discuss the possibility of other players being mafia?

I don't care who you want to discuss. I'm not going to start making cases against everybody here though. If I feel an argument or case is warranted against someone, I'll make it. Otherwise, no, I will not feed the Mafia fodder.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm logging off, cause I'm scared of O.  Have fun everyone.

Damn right you are! 

By the way, thanks for playing, that's 8 more posts between the two of us.  Good job!

[O]

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats

weeeeee are the champiooonnssss

[Galzria]

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats

weeeeee are the champiooonnssss

+1. /Raises Glass

So. How about that official Dominion App?

[Robz888]

One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.

Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.

Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.

Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.

SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables, and Grujah searched the deceased Lord's Throne Room, hoping for the key, or clues, or both.

When that didn't work, they did it again. 

Vote Count 1-13

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown

Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[O]

I no longer have my vote on pops and am trying to start another bandwagon at the moment 

[Axxle]

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?

(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)

Just looking over some people that have behaved strangely before and now.  This is Grujah's last post, and he was most recently logged in twenty minutes ago.  He's lurking, which smacks of scum.

[Galzria]

I no longer have my vote on pops and am trying to start another bandwagon at the moment 

He's working hard too. I /applaud his effort.

Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).

Still, I'm tired now, so I'm going to sleep. See you all in 4 hours. Don't kill anyone while I'm away. I'd hate to miss the entertainment.

[Galzria]

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?

(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)

Just looking over some people that have behaved strangely before and now.  This is Grujah's last post, and he was most recently logged in twenty minutes ago.  He's lurking, which smacks of scum.

Hey look Axxle, I agree with you on something! Post more Grujah!

Ok, not entirely. It doesn't "smack of scum" to me, but the rest of your point is taken/well made.

[Axxle]

@Grujah, you got anything to add?

On what exactly? Jo? Generally who I consider scummy?

(Also, your last few posts give me big townie read, unlike before.)

Just looking over some people that have behaved strangely before and now.  This is Grujah's last post, and he was most recently logged in twenty minutes ago.  He's lurking, which smacks of scum.

Just trying to get some discussion going since it seems like J and Axxle discussions are stalling.  If we can get me and J talking more maybe we can get more evidence, and if talk about other people maybe we can help find partners for Day 2.

[Axxle]

Sleep is calling me too, good night everyone.

@Galz: Four hours of sleep?!  You be crazy.  See everyone in 9 hours.

[Robz888]

Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).

Some of us cast our votes EXACTLY once. 

[Insomniac]

As per request and in the order given by the sign up thread

1 - Galzria - Talks a lot, accuses a lot, if Galzria is mafia I commend the switch up. Probably town, trying something different then previous Galz iterations, want to find scum

2 - Dsell - For a guy who posts a lot I don't actually have a good read. I'll brush up on his posts and see if I come back thinking hes scum or not, my suspicion is that he could be and hes higher ranking than some others

3 - Insomniac - Insert completely unbiased review here.

4 - Robz888 - Much like Galzria if Robz is mafia I'd be highly shocked it would be a completely different game then something that worked so well last time. I don't think he is but I won't rule him or Galz out yet

5 - Captain_Frisk - I like Captain_Frisk as a player he prods people without being too crazy gets people to defend themselves and creates bandwagons. Definetly could be mafia or town. Top 5

6 - O - Well O plays every game of mafia the same way, in the one game we can talk about he was town, if he's mafia then it would be straight up hard to read and could definetly be the case. 50/50

7 - Axxle - I don't think he's mafia, seems wrong for mafia to contribute an article on scumhunting. Doesn't make him safe but I don't buy into the recent bandwagon around him

8 - theorel - Makes big posts that explain his outlook well, he's having a feud with Robz, based on Mafia II, I would suspect one of these two to be mafia and since I don't think its Robz Im inclinded to blame theorel but it's day 1.

9 - Glooble - You know I've seen his posts but they tend to be a big blob of text in one paragraph with no line breaks. I hate text with no line breaks, I tend to skim over his posts, I'll go back and review

10 - popsofctown - Like O I can see pops being mafia or town. Hes an aggitator, he actively tries to piss people off, it draws attention to himself but in the same way as O it cools down quickish, If he is mafia I'd be ok with my lynch here if he is well I guess one aggitator at a time

11 - Tables - Gettin a strictly town read here, thats worrysome but his posts are similar to M2 where he was super helpful. I'd be inclined to reconsider after I see how the events this round go

12 - Grujah - Another one I dont have a good read on  I haven't seen that much from him either. I'll go back and re-read seems like he's another of the less active players

13 - jotheonah - Well he could be mafia but his gambit would be all too risky, letting him live day 1 isn't a big deal, he claimed vanilla townie which isn't great but not terrible either. He also claimed scum. I'm pretty sure its just bad town play but again I will definitely reevaluate on day 2.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - Another one that had a spat with Robz, could be mafia I'm unsure. pops claims he's not which makes me suspect him more as well and probably puts him near the top of my watch list. Again though no solid read yet.

15 - Green Opal - Posts infrequently. enough to be another lurker.


Most of my good evaluations come after a lynch when I go back and re-read day 1 and come to conclusions much like I drew the Robz conclusion on day 2 in M2. As you'll note I didn't partake much day 1 in Mafia 2 either, had a real life reason but also I just don't have much of a read on people until theres hard evidence to draw from. If that makes my suspicious thats fine but I guarantee open on day 2 I'll have some real quantatative posts. Not Galzria tome style but like Insomniac day 2 crusade style.

Cue pops revoting for me with an insulting post. In 5....4...3...2...

[Insomniac]

Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).

Some of us cast our votes EXACTLY once. 

To be fair this list does include me as exactly once so far, let's get out of that boat just to be safe...

UNVOTE
Vote: popsofctown

[Dsell]

Well I was gonna post about how things were slowing down and then...Insomniac! Well Insomniac and SFS.

SFS, I'm really glad to see some more content and I think you are actually looking for the right kind of thing but I don't think I buy this specific connection you are pointing out. I mean, you could be right, but I think it's pretty farfetched.

Insomniac, that's some pretty good analysis. Actually pretty similar to mine with the huge exception of jo. I also feel like Grujah has been scummier than you've given him credit for. I'm not exactly sure what your reason for voting pops is though and I'd love if you could explain that one in more detail. I agree with you that I don't know how to tell whether he is town or mafia. I don't think it's a secret that some of his posts rub me the wrong way though. I'm also very curious of your thoughts on pops' bandwagon? One of the main reasons that I stayed off was that it built up too fast for that early stage in the game. I would not mind attempting to lynch him again here but I am very very worried that his early bandwagon may have included some mafia, which suggests he could be town.

I agree with your conclusion on Axxle but I don't think that it should seem so "wrong" for mafia an article on scumhunting. Indeed, it could be a very good tactic to convince someone like you (and others have had the same point) that he is on your side. Nonetheless, I actually do believe him to be town and I too (as I've mentioned) think his bandwagon's case is fairly weak.

I don't see your connection between Mafia II and why you think either Robz or Theorel is mafia. Could you explain that some more? From my pov, Robz has definitely been more reasonable but I still think Theorel is town. With 15 people there are bound to be arguments between townies so I'm not sure how you made the jump to thinking one is mafia.

Then that leaves jo, my only major disagreement. You say you will reevaluate day 2 but can I encourage you to reevaluate before day 1 is over? I agree that it would be a risky gambit but I think it pays off huge for him if he makes it past day 1. As long as suspicion lies elsewhere he has practically a free pass at nighttime. I know it looks like bad town play but has he seemed like a bad player in Mafia II and III to you?

Insomniac, this analysis has been pretty solid so if you say it'll be even better day 2 I'm looking forward to that. I've gotten pretty much a town read from you this whole time and was really really baffled when pops laid that vote on you. I could kinda see his reasons there but I didn't agree.

[Voltgloss]

Fifteen people gathered together for a lunch Feast.  Fifteen people described their various efforts at finding the portcullis key, and how they came up empty-handed. 

Someone suggested that they convert the Feast hall into a meeting area of sorts, specifically for discussing strategy and taking lynch votes.  But that meant trashing their Feasts and taking a Council Room instead, and everyone was too hungry to actually make that sacrifice.

Vote Count 1-14

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT 

[Captain_Frisk]

Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments.  Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.

Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?

[jotheonah]

Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments.  Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.

Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?

Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.

[Captain_Frisk]

Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments.  Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.

Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?

Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.

No offense intended J - but you aren't exactly super credible in this game - every time I see you argue for harder for Axxle - I doubt myself.  I'm happy with my vote on him, but I'm not going to try to start pushing harder for it.

Also, I'd like to hear more from: Glooble, Grujah and Green Opal.  When someone pointed out that "G" is ambiguous, I had to go back and look, because you guys are nearly invisible. 

[Glooble]

Ok, I've officially deliberated this for too long. I'm gonna go with my gut here.

VOTE: AXXLE

Right now I'm feeling 60 - to 70 percent sure he's mafia. Obviously, that's what I'm hoping is true. Even if he comes up town, though, I feel like that will give us a lot good information. Tables' early "I trust Axxle" post, his feud with Galz, his votes on the pops and j bandwagons, etc. If Axxle comes up town, Galz, pops, theorel, and myself will all need to be examined in a new light. I see this making for a much more productive day 2.

J has been acting so suspicious that if we lynch him we learn nothing. Everyone who voted for him has reasons that are hard to argue with.

Still, and I hate to sound like a broken record, I don't believe j is mafia. I don't think he would play scum in such a light-hearted, cavalier way. It doesn't match up with anything I know about him. It matches up pretty well with him telling the truth about transparency and not watching his words because he has nothing to hide.

@Insomniac: I'm trying to use more line breaks. How's this?

[Galzria]

Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments.  Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.

Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?

Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.

He does seem determined to change targets, and he's trying to do it in as straight, and calm a manner as he can. Almost feels rehearsed to me, not genuine at all. Well, the redirecting is, but his method doesn't.

[jotheonah]

Always fun to start the day off with several new pages of arguments.  Axxle hasn't done anything new to further cast suspicion, and I don't yet see anything else that changes my mind.

Overly Antagonistic O: Since my argument for Axxle is empty and without merit, would you like to present your argument for theorel using more than a sentence?

Besides the freudian slip pops mentioned (seriously, who says "if I flip town" like he doesn't know?) and the general nervous volume of Axxle's posts this morning.

No offense intended J - but you aren't exactly super credible in this game - every time I see you argue for harder for Axxle - I doubt myself.

Well that's... not by design. Whatever though. I'm not just going to stop playing the game because some people no longer trust my arguments.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Also, a small note Robz (although likely irrelevant to the point you made), is that at some point this game, everybody has cast their vote at least once (I believe).

Some of us cast our votes EXACTLY once. 

Yes, because remember, Robz doesnt vote lightly!

[jotheonah]

hey pops, were you being flippant before or do you actually think Insomniac is scummy?

[theorel]

So tempted to vote...The "all" button went away on the thread.  I don't really see how you guys can use a user's profile to review only his Mafia IV posts (at least for Axxle).  I'm a little tired of re-reading the thread.  I think I could force myself to reread Axxle at least one more time if it was easy...

I thought Axxle was the most suspicious of Pops voters, and he's been more suspicious since then (in voting for j, trying to stir others up to the same, and in unvoting j...though he claims reasonability in everything).  I guess even I can get tired of abstract reasoning without any firm foundation, I apologize to those that I may have antagonized that just wanted something concrete.  I'm legitimately concerned about what will happen if he flips town, but maybe Pops' whole prism-thing will actually work reasonably in that case.

@Insomniac: Thanks for responding.

I want to hear from Green & Grujah.  I won't vote until at least one of them responds with something, even if it's another weak "I don't have anything to add".  Refer to my previous post if you want specific questions.

Also, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1?  I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break.  But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.

Maybe while I wait, I'll find a better way to review posts, or get up enough willpower to slog through the thread.

[Grujah]

One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.

Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.

Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.

Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.

I am trying to figure out how much sense this has. I mean, it does to extent (mainly the part where they it benefits them if they do not join any and still a townie dies). But it would seem to me that landing a hammer blow generates more heat, so joining a wagon earlier (any wagon) seems like a better idea. Even better if they spread their votes on both. Not saying that it is not possible, but that it isn't that much likely that they are riding BW.


I'll try to comment on everyone, even though I don't have strongly based opinion on most people.

1 - Galzria - seem to be actively scumhunting, interrogating and such. Town read.

2 - Dsell - Though he did post, I completely have no idea or what to form opinion on, not really feeling anything here, so slight scum.

3 - Insomniac - Not sure about this guy. Neutral, maybe slight scum. It might be the evil looking avatar.
 
4 - Robz888 - Ok, I for most considered Robz townie, as he seemed to be actively trying to scumhunt. What threw me off a lot is him going on how his vote is precious and he is slow on the trigger, and than he votes J quite easily.

5 - Captain_Frisk - He plays great, hunts/attacks/stuff like that, but there is just something, I don't know, gut feeling says slight scum read.

6 - O - He's been voting on his own, that kinda gives me slight town read.

7 - Axxle - Seems more scummy than J. What I particular didn't like was him backing off J than voting against him back (and general, seemingly erratic play).

8 - theorel -

Also, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1?  I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break.  But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.

Ok, I get people want night to come and to see day 2, but this is the similar thing to that Axxle posted ("let's lynch quick and finish off") but said in a more politically correct way as, "I think we should lynch and finish it off.. but if you guys need more time.. suuuure". Though this doesn't mean much.  Still not sure on him, maybe little scummy?

9 - Glooble - Slight scum read.

10 - popsofctown - His SFS "he's good" thing aside, his posts 660, 669 give off a town read.

11 - Tables - Hmm.. We've agreed on some stuff (like Glooble-Theo-J backing up). Axxle's his most town read? hmm. Neutral, maybe slight town read.

12 - Grujah - Hi.

13 - jotheonah - Ok, this was some seriously bad play. I don't find it necessarily scummy, but I would cry over too much if he died, unlike glooble I don't think we learn nothing from his death, as him and theo have been protecting J and that gives us something depending on the flip.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - slight town read.

15 - Green Opal - I agree with general consensus of not having a opinion.

I guess that's generally it.

Does someone know which people have been on BOTH of J and Axxle wagons?

[Captain_Frisk]

I have convinced theory to up the limit on "ALL".  He has set it at 10K posts.  Please do not abuse.

[Grujah]

Oh, and I'm going to
Vote: Axxle

Also, this:

Code: [Select]

sed -n '/Post by: <strong>Galzria<\/strong>/, /<\/dd>/p' print.html >> ~Galzria.html
Gets all posts by a person in a this Mafia thread, provided that print.html is a "print ready" version of the thread. You click "PRINT" on any page to get it, it provides whole thread right away.
(also provided that you have access to Unix CLI).

[Captain_Frisk]

This is 7?

[Grujah]

Yes.

[jotheonah]

Arguably I have been on both the J and Axxle wagons, although I never actually voted J. Is that helpful?

[Grujah]

Also I'd like to see Axxle defending or claiming something. Maybe I should have voted when he was online, but I don't think anyone will hammer without hearing from Axxle first.

[theorel]

Posted after Grujah's request...doesn't look like anyone else has answered.

Both wagons:

Galz-early on both. (2nd and 1st respectively)

SFS-on jo: "See what happens", on Axxle: "agreed with C_F" (if I remember correctly).  Has since posted more personal suspicions of Axxle.

Tables-kind of: He voted jo, then jumped off when it started heating up too much.  He's mentioned suspicion of Axxle but hasn't put down a vote.

pops-even less so: He's voted for Axxle with strong suspicions.  He was antagonistic towards jo, and suggested lynching him might be worthwhile for information.  I thought he said he didn't really think jo was scum, but I'm really uncertain and don't want to look it up.  I remember him stating that seeing how jo would flip would be useful, so he clearly wasn't convinced he was town at that time.

Tables is the only one that's really read to me as being significantly suspicious of both.  Though I think all have said they'd be willing to lynch jo if they thought getting scum was unlikely.

If I've misrepresented anyone please point it out.

@Grujah: thanks for the post.  For myself, I'm feeling a little exhausted more than anything.  I'm not really sure we should lynch and finish it off, but I'm also not sure that we should drag it out any longer.  I know some people would like day to end (Insomniac, Galz, Robz, I think have all commented to that, maybe others have said so as well?).  I would like to be more certain of Axxle before casting my vote.  That's actually a big part of why I wanted to hear from you and Green.

[theorel]

Okay, 7 votes...well, now I won't vote until Axxle has a chance to speak up, since others might care about that.  I'll try to review the thread and then vote either tonight (9-ish EST) or tomorrow morning (7-ish EST), if there's still the opportunity by then.  (family coming over this afternoon, so I'm not sure I'll be on tonight.  The vote-time is slotted for the next time I'll be online after Axxle has opportunity to post, which should be one or the other.)

@Grujah: thanks for the info...that'll be helpful.  I'll try to use this to go through Axxle's posts before I vote as well. 

[Grujah]

I would like to be more certain of Axxle before casting my vote.  That's actually a big part of why I wanted to hear from you and Green.

While this still might a legitimate concern, a fair, townie thing to do,  still seems it so very PC  "OK, you see, I am very fair and want to weight in everything before I vote". It seems a bit rehearsed, forced.

Nothing accusing of anything, just noting. 

[theorel]

To be fair: it is forced.  I'm forcing myself to hold to an ideal, that I don't really want to hold to.  Maybe that's what's coming across?  This is the same way I'm going to force myself to try to reread Axxle's posts without bias...even though I don't want to.

[Voltgloss]

The lunch Feast rapidly devolved into the topic of who to lynch.  Axxle was the clear frontrunner, with just one vote needed to cinch.  Galzria and Grujah were ready to bring out the winch. 

In a pinch.

Vote Count 1-15

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (7) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT 

[Robz888]

Okay, Glooble and Grujah's votes are pretty scummy, yes? Does this give anyone pause?

[theorel]

Glooble's no.  Grujah's somewhat.

Glooble has in fact been deliberating and made several posts of his reasoning regarding Axxle.

Grujah has made one post, with one line about Axxle where he notes that he's scummier than j.

[theorel]

I expect the mafia to vote for Axxle at this point whether he's town or mafia...so it doesn't really give me pause, no.

[Galzria]

Okay, Glooble and Grujah's votes are pretty scummy, yes? Does this give anyone pause?

Yes, absolutely. But we'll know for sure if/when Axxle flips. I'm not inclined to think that either is capable of bussing, but wouldn't completely write it off either.

For the record (and clarity),I'm not suspicious because of the timing of their votes. That would be ridiculous. If people never cast votes #6 or #7 or #8, nobody will ever get lynched. This discussion occurred earlier. I put little value in the placement of votes based solely on the same. So what makes them suspicious is the listed reasonings along WITH the vote placement.

I would also be inclined to reach night, and gather what information we can on dawn D2, but that wouldn't alone be a good enough reason for me to cast my vote somewhere.

[Robz888]

I'm pretty sure he's going to flip town, but maybe not. We'll see. I'm certainly ready to put Day 1 behind us.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm pretty sure he's going to flip town, but maybe not. We'll see. I'm certainly ready to put Day 1 behind us.

Who else are you suspicious of?  I know you're feeling strongly about J, and you're unlikely to change that vote because you and I see voting differently.

I can't imagine the rest of us are all equal in your eyes.

[Robz888]

I'm pretty sure he's going to flip town, but maybe not. We'll see. I'm certainly ready to put Day 1 behind us.

Who else are you suspicious of?  I know you're feeling strongly about J, and you're unlikely to change that vote because you and I see voting differently.

I can't imagine the rest of us are all equal in your eyes.

I would change my vote if someone replaced Jo in my eyes as a more likely mafia. That hasn't happened for me, and it certainly hasn't happened with Axxle. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if neither are mafia.

I'll give you some other suspects in a minute.

[Axxle]

"if I flip town"

I like keeping myself objective at times.

Right now I'm feeling 60 - to 70 percent sure he's mafia. Obviously, that's what I'm hoping is true. Even if he comes up town, though, I feel like that will give us a lot good information. Tables' early "I trust Axxle" post, his feud with Galz, his votes on the pops and j bandwagons, etc. If Axxle comes up town, Galz, pops, theorel, and myself will all need to be examined in a new light. I see this making for a much more productive day 2.

J has been acting so suspicious that if we lynch him we learn nothing. Everyone who voted for him has reasons that are hard to argue with.

This is almost exactly Galz's post #945 and you're presenting it as your own. 

I forgot about the All button, thanks for that Grujah.  But I have NEVER said "let's lynch quick and finish off", I have only said "Let's not be afraid to lynch quick," that is all.  It was more of a theory post I have to admit.

I forgot Galz was on the J wagon.  I'm concerned on how differently he seems to be acting this game.  I think he also said that he doesn't think mafia would spearhead lynches, but is that just to cover his tracks?

I agree Grujah's vote feels scummy, again.

For the record (and clarity),I'm not suspicious because of the timing of their votes. That would be ridiculous. If people never cast votes #6 or #7 or #8, nobody will ever get lynched. This discussion occurred earlier. I put little value in the placement of votes based solely on the same. So what makes them suspicious is the listed reasonings along WITH the vote placement.

Is there something wrong with my reasons?





I am just casting more suspicion on others instead of being terribly concerned about defense because I am Vanilla Town. I think most of my defense is just clarifying posts so I don't get misrepresented after death and trying to find out why people are voting for me since that might help too. I hope what I do in life and death will help you guys tomorrow.  I'm sorry I'm not a better VT player, I notice I'm very sheepish. 

[jotheonah]

OMG HE CLAIMED VT HE"S THE WORST TOWNIE EVER POLICY LYNCH POLICY LYNCH

[Insomniac]

OMG HE CLAIMED VT HE"S THE WORST TOWNIE EVER POLICY LYNCH POLICY LYNCH

Claimed after he was at 7 votes. Isnt bad play.

[Robz888]

Okay, at CF's prompting--and because the day could end at any minute--here is a list of everybody, from most suspicious to least, with a bit of commentary. None of these are like, sure things. The long day has certainly given us good info and evidence, but with so many people they run together a bit, so... these are sort of based more on my gut feelings, which I know were informed by evidence at some point, though I can't exactly recall what that evidence was in every case.

jotheonah -- Still the most suspicious to me, for reasons I've gone over. The fact that he cooled off so dramatically and actually did manage to spare himself from lynching really does lend credence to the idea of him being mafia. I'm worried we are going to forget about Jo a bit, because there are going to be a lot of suspects next round. So, let's try not to forget about him.
Grujah -- Well, he was suspicious for voting without explanation for somebody early on. Pops, maybe? It put him on my radar, and other people noticed too. He downplayed his abilities a lot, which I don't like. And uh, I don't know--every time he speaks (which became rarer as the day went on) he is suspicious. And his vote for Axxle here was suspicious. I don't usually jump at the people voting 6, 7, 8... but this game they are definitely noticeable to me.
Glooble -- He had a post earlier today that I found really suspicious (falling into my "mafia middelground" category). I don't think I mentioned it then. Flew way under the radar at first, but now... yeah. I could definitely see him as a mafia if Axxle flips town (same thing for Grujah).
theorel -- He has said some weird, not entirely accurate things. He got weirder as the day went on. I think he was definitely wrong in the argument he was making, and Dsell was right. The only issue there, though, is that I remember thinking in MII, "I am right and Insomniac is wrong in this argument, anyone can see that, but... I'm the mafia, and Insomniac is right, though not for the reasons he is making." So, being wrong doesn't make you mafia. Still, I expect theorel might be the ultimate Axxle vote. If Axxle is innocent...
Axxle -- There are definitely good reasons to suspect Axxle. It's weird that he has barely defended himself. Did he give up? I don't know what's going on with him. Anyway, with so many people in the game... the mafia definitely don't have to vote for each other. If Axxle flips mafia, I think everyone who voted for him should be pretty much acquitted (mostly). Or at least, like, the first couple people. If he flips town, which I think is more likely... well, we will have lots of suspect tomorrow!
SwitchedFromStarcraft -- Has annoyed me to no end. I don't get this guy. He really did pick a fight with me for no reason. Doesn't make him mafia, though. In fact, it actually makes him among the least suspicious of the group of new players.
Dsell -- Uh, I see a lot of myself in Dsell, which is why I can't help but suspect him slightly. He makes some good arguments, he seems to agree with me in this game, but... well, I was a mafia once. I could see it. I don't any evidence but I could see it.
Captain_Frisk -- He is sort of in the same category as Dsell, but maybe slightly less so.
popsofctown -- Too weird to be mafia. Seriously.
Tables -- Helpful, if infrequent poster. Mostly feels like a town member. That might change next round. I've never seen him in action on Day 2.
O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.
Galzria -- Ditto, basically. I worry that I'll never really suspect Galzria. Somebody else is going to have to explain to me why he is mafia, if anybody reaches that conclusion. I'll never reach it without help.
Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.

*Green Opal -- I admit the Opal from this list entirely, because I have absolutely no read on him, and no memory of anything he has done or said. Nothing.

[Galzria]

@Axxle

The quoted post of mine was not directed at or about you. It  was a response to Robz on my thoughts about Glooble/Grujah and their votes on you.

[Axxle]

@Axxle

The quoted post of mine was not directed at or about you. It  was a response to Robz on my thoughts about Glooble/Grujah and their votes on you.

Yes.  I was wondering why the apparent double standard.

[Dsell]

I have to agree with insomniac that it's not that bad in this context. I'm not all that surprised that we got to 7 here but I don't like it. I see town play, just of a different style. It also would really bother me to be on a bandwagon with Jo right now.

As a curiosity, why has everybody been unable to get a read on me? Am I that boring?

[Galzria]

@Axxle

The quoted post of mine was not directed at or about you. It  was a response to Robz on my thoughts about Glooble/Grujah and their votes on you.

Yes.  I was wondering why the apparent double standard.

There is no double standard. I've laid out my case against you on numerous occasions, and vote placement is only a small part of it.

[jotheonah]

Okay, at CF's prompting--and because the day could end at any minute--here is a list of everybody, from most suspicious to least, with a bit of commentary. None of these are like, sure things. The long day has certainly given us good info and evidence, but with so many people they run together a bit, so... these are sort of based more on my gut feelings, which I know were informed by evidence at some point, though I can't exactly recall what that evidence was in every case.

jotheonah -- Still the most suspicious to me, for reasons I've gone over. The fact that he cooled off so dramatically and actually did manage to spare himself from lynching really does lend credence to the idea of him being mafia. I'm worried we are going to forget about Jo a bit, because there are going to be a lot of suspects next round. So, let's try not to forget about him.
Grujah -- Well, he was suspicious for voting without explanation for somebody early on. Pops, maybe? It put him on my radar, and other people noticed too. He downplayed his abilities a lot, which I don't like. And uh, I don't know--every time he speaks (which became rarer as the day went on) he is suspicious. And his vote for Axxle here was suspicious. I don't usually jump at the people voting 6, 7, 8... but this game they are definitely noticeable to me.
Glooble -- He had a post earlier today that I found really suspicious (falling into my "mafia middelground" category). I don't think I mentioned it then. Flew way under the radar at first, but now... yeah. I could definitely see him as a mafia if Axxle flips town (same thing for Grujah).
theorel -- He has said some weird, not entirely accurate things. He got weirder as the day went on. I think he was definitely wrong in the argument he was making, and Dsell was right. The only issue there, though, is that I remember thinking in MII, "I am right and Insomniac is wrong in this argument, anyone can see that, but... I'm the mafia, and Insomniac is right, though not for the reasons he is making." So, being wrong doesn't make you mafia. Still, I expect theorel might be the ultimate Axxle vote. If Axxle is innocent...
Axxle -- There are definitely good reasons to suspect Axxle. It's weird that he has barely defended himself. Did he give up? I don't know what's going on with him. Anyway, with so many people in the game... the mafia definitely don't have to vote for each other. If Axxle flips mafia, I think everyone who voted for him should be pretty much acquitted (mostly). Or at least, like, the first couple people. If he flips town, which I think is more likely... well, we will have lots of suspect tomorrow!
SwitchedFromStarcraft -- Has annoyed me to no end. I don't get this guy. He really did pick a fight with me for no reason. Doesn't make him mafia, though. In fact, it actually makes him among the least suspicious of the group of new players.
Dsell -- Uh, I see a lot of myself in Dsell, which is why I can't help but suspect him slightly. He makes some good arguments, he seems to agree with me in this game, but... well, I was a mafia once. I could see it. I don't any evidence but I could see it.
Captain_Frisk -- He is sort of in the same category as Dsell, but maybe slightly less so.
popsofctown -- Too weird to be mafia. Seriously.
Tables -- Helpful, if infrequent poster. Mostly feels like a town member. That might change next round. I've never seen him in action on Day 2.
O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.
Galzria -- Ditto, basically. I worry that I'll never really suspect Galzria. Somebody else is going to have to explain to me why he is mafia, if anybody reaches that conclusion. I'll never reach it without help.
Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.

*Green Opal -- I admit the Opal from this list entirely, because I have absolutely no read on him, and no memory of anything he has done or said. Nothing.

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

[jotheonah]

*I'm not saying you're mafia because you make these posts. I'm just saying, lets not make these posts a thing because they're easy scum hiding places.

[Robz888]

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

(1) I like them, except a lot of times people write them and end up acquitting everybody on the list. I don't like that. But I don't think mine is vague and forgettable.

(2) Will do.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.

Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.

Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.

Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.

I am trying to figure out how much sense this has. I mean, it does to extent (mainly the part where they it benefits them if they do not join any and still a townie dies). But it would seem to me that landing a hammer blow generates more heat, so joining a wagon earlier (any wagon) seems like a better idea. Even better if they spread their votes on both. Not saying that it is not possible, but that it isn't that much likely that they are riding BW.


I'll try to comment on everyone, even though I don't have strongly based opinion on most people.

1 - Galzria - seem to be actively scumhunting, interrogating and such. Town read.

2 - Dsell - Though he did post, I completely have no idea or what to form opinion on, not really feeling anything here, so slight scum.

3 - Insomniac - Not sure about this guy. Neutral, maybe slight scum. It might be the evil looking avatar.
 
4 - Robz888 - Ok, I for most considered Robz townie, as he seemed to be actively trying to scumhunt. What threw me off a lot is him going on how his vote is precious and he is slow on the trigger, and than he votes J quite easily.

5 - Captain_Frisk - He plays great, hunts/attacks/stuff like that, but there is just something, I don't know, gut feeling says slight scum read.

6 - O - He's been voting on his own, that kinda gives me slight town read.

7 - Axxle - Seems more scummy than J. What I particular didn't like was him backing off J than voting against him back (and general, seemingly erratic play).

8 - theorel -

Also, is there anyone left who thinks there's something more to squeeze out of day1?  I'm ready for night to come, if for nothing else than to have a break.  But if anybody feels like more info can be gathered in the abstract stages of the game I'll hold off for you too.

Ok, I get people want night to come and to see day 2, but this is the similar thing to that Axxle posted ("let's lynch quick and finish off") but said in a more politically correct way as, "I think we should lynch and finish it off.. but if you guys need more time.. suuuure". Though this doesn't mean much.  Still not sure on him, maybe little scummy?

9 - Glooble - Slight scum read.

10 - popsofctown - His SFS "he's good" thing aside, his posts 660, 669 give off a town read.

11 - Tables - Hmm.. We've agreed on some stuff (like Glooble-Theo-J backing up). Axxle's his most town read? hmm. Neutral, maybe slight town read.

12 - Grujah - Hi.

13 - jotheonah - Ok, this was some seriously bad play. I don't find it necessarily scummy, but I would cry over too much if he died, unlike glooble I don't think we learn nothing from his death, as him and theo have been protecting J and that gives us something depending on the flip.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - slight town read.

15 - Green Opal - I agree with general consensus of not having a opinion.

I guess that's generally it.

Does someone know which people have been on BOTH of J and Axxle wagons?

Grujah - I'm a little behind, but I have voted for both J and Axxle.  When I catch up, I'll tell you what position I fell in, but I think it was vote #4 on both.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Sorry, meant to take out all the quote but your final question.

[theorel]

I disagree...I like that kind of post.  It's something that's hard for mafia to hide in (IMO) because they have to figure out how best to characterize their partners.  Once we get some role information it's really useful to see what other people have said about them, and these posts are a great way to have that information on hand.

Additionally, if the person posting is town, it's useful because it helps us understand where each person is coming from, and who they suspect.  By reading what Robz finds suspicious I can better analyze my own suspicions and reasons for suspecting them.  I think this is one of the town's greatest difficulties, and one of our best resources: we all play the game differently.  What's not suspicious to you may be suspicious to (for instance) Robz*.  If you're mafia and trying to do scummy things while not appearing as mafia, you'll do things that aren't suspicious to you.  If I happen play similar to you, I may also find those things not suspicious.  It then behooves me to hear Robz's points in order that I can reconsider.  This should hopefully go the other way too.

Now mafia can take advantage of that, and try to draw people in, that's why I consider parroting others' opinions to be somewhat scummy, while making new points is more town-ish.  (OF course Robz did that in MII as scum, so maybe I'm wrong on that count...but he also had to do it because he had previously said Kuildeous looked clean...making that commitment hurt his later ability to just do as he wanted).  Anyways, sometimes they'll be vague, but you can always call out for specifics.

[theorel]

Of course: that was in reference to j's comment about Robz's suspicion-summary post.

[popsofctown]

Hey, Axxle, if there's a townAxxle in there, please give a bucket post with the names of your top two scumspects.  I don't have a clear clue of what that is from your posts (which is one of the reasons I'm hanging you, sorry).

[Captain_Frisk]

(1) There have been a lot of this kind of post lately. I don't like them. They're very easy for the mafia to make, because it lets you say lots of vague, forgettable things, while appearing to post something long, insightful, and analytical.
(2) I quibble with several of your reads, but especially the read on Insomniac. Do me a favor and glance through his recent posts under the assumption that Axxle is mafia. Tell me if they look scummier to you (other people besides Robz can do that also).

(1) I like them, except a lot of times people write them and end up acquitting everybody on the list. I don't like that. But I don't think mine is vague and forgettable.

(2) Will do.

My reason for asking was:

1. It forces Rob to put more things on record that we can accuse him of later.
2. In the event of a night kill - we have on the record observation from people who are not mafia.

[jotheonah]

well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.

Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.

[jotheonah]

As per request and in the order given by the sign up thread

1 - Galzria - Talks a lot, accuses a lot, if Galzria is mafia I commend the switch up. Probably town, trying something different then previous Galz iterations, want to find scum

2 - Dsell - For a guy who posts a lot I don't actually have a good read. I'll brush up on his posts and see if I come back thinking hes scum or not, my suspicion is that he could be and hes higher ranking than some others

3 - Insomniac - Insert completely unbiased review here.

4 - Robz888 - Much like Galzria if Robz is mafia I'd be highly shocked it would be a completely different game then something that worked so well last time. I don't think he is but I won't rule him or Galz out yet

5 - Captain_Frisk - I like Captain_Frisk as a player he prods people without being too crazy gets people to defend themselves and creates bandwagons. Definetly could be mafia or town. Top 5

6 - O - Well O plays every game of mafia the same way, in the one game we can talk about he was town, if he's mafia then it would be straight up hard to read and could definetly be the case. 50/50

7 - Axxle - I don't think he's mafia, seems wrong for mafia to contribute an article on scumhunting. Doesn't make him safe but I don't buy into the recent bandwagon around him

8 - theorel - Makes big posts that explain his outlook well, he's having a feud with Robz, based on Mafia II, I would suspect one of these two to be mafia and since I don't think its Robz Im inclinded to blame theorel but it's day 1.

9 - Glooble - You know I've seen his posts but they tend to be a big blob of text in one paragraph with no line breaks. I hate text with no line breaks, I tend to skim over his posts, I'll go back and review

10 - popsofctown - Like O I can see pops being mafia or town. Hes an aggitator, he actively tries to piss people off, it draws attention to himself but in the same way as O it cools down quickish, If he is mafia I'd be ok with my lynch here if he is well I guess one aggitator at a time

11 - Tables - Gettin a strictly town read here, thats worrysome but his posts are similar to M2 where he was super helpful. I'd be inclined to reconsider after I see how the events this round go

12 - Grujah - Another one I dont have a good read on  I haven't seen that much from him either. I'll go back and re-read seems like he's another of the less active players

13 - jotheonah - Well he could be mafia but his gambit would be all too risky, letting him live day 1 isn't a big deal, he claimed vanilla townie which isn't great but not terrible either. He also claimed scum. I'm pretty sure its just bad town play but again I will definitely reevaluate on day 2.

14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft - Another one that had a spat with Robz, could be mafia I'm unsure. pops claims he's not which makes me suspect him more as well and probably puts him near the top of my watch list. Again though no solid read yet.

15 - Green Opal - Posts infrequently. enough to be another lurker.


Most of my good evaluations come after a lynch when I go back and re-read day 1 and come to conclusions much like I drew the Robz conclusion on day 2 in M2. As you'll note I didn't partake much day 1 in Mafia 2 either, had a real life reason but also I just don't have much of a read on people until theres hard evidence to draw from. If that makes my suspicious thats fine but I guarantee open on day 2 I'll have some real quantatative posts. Not Galzria tome style but like Insomniac day 2 crusade style.

Cue pops revoting for me with an insulting post. In 5....4...3...2...

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

[Robz888]

@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.

I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.

[Captain_Frisk]

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.

The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.

I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.

+1 for this observation.

[Galzria]

This is why I don't like them, and why I refused Axxle last night to make one:

As Mafia, I can look back at all the suspicions, notice *Grujah is high up (or above average) in almost all of them, and tailor my argument against him next round, with most of the research done for me.

It's not that those posts are or are not a good place for mafia to hide. I had no problem making them in M-II, and keeping Robz near the top. It's that you're providing fodder and reasoning for the Mafia, and allowing them to play you and your suspicions.

[Galzria]

*Grujah was an example.

[Axxle]

Hey, Axxle, if there's a townAxxle in there, please give a bucket post with the names of your top two scumspects.  I don't have a clear clue of what that is from your posts (which is one of the reasons I'm hanging you, sorry).

You'll take what I've given you and you'll like it!

No? Ok, I'll do it quickly because I need to rush to work:

Galzria - Feels much too focused for someone who in theory sounded more open to discussion.  His reasons for voting for me seem solid though.
Dsell - I get a vibe of unhelpful town from him, although nullish in general.
Insomniac - He seems to be an active lurker, a major scumtell.  I don't like he didn't give any specifics in this post:

Jotheonah: you are not one I see myself voting for unless something drastic changes. If I had to rank you you'd be near the top but there's at least 3 other people I'm more suspicious of.

Robz888 - seems to be behaving as he did in Mafia I, although a bit more level headed.  Solid town.
Captain_Frisk - I don't like his relationship with SFS, don't remember much else.
O - Trying to generate discussion, but not succeeding.  O is currently my strongest town read.
theorel - writes long, meaningful posts.  Sometimes misrepresents others.  I have to conclude slight town here unless I reread everything.
Glooble - many of the things he says feel like he's just rehashing what others have said.  Scum read here.
popsofctown - I don't know if that terse thing earlier was an experiment or something he did as mafia and abandoned it when it wasn't working.  I like that he's asking my opinion before I go to the chopping block.  Slight town.
Tables - hasn't posted in a while. don't have a read.
Grujah - Doesn't adequately explain himself much of the time. Slight scum but it looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.
jotheonah - I think he's a better player than he's been this game, therefore I think all his mistakes were calculated and therefore very scummy.
SwitchedFromStarcraft - Odd character but I take that as personality rather than scumminess.  Slight town.
Green Opal - Gone, so very gone from the thread and the minds of everyone. Scum for lurking.

Top suspiscions: Jotheonah, Green Opal, Insomniac

@Galz: Information is much more of a Town tool, not a mafia one.

[jotheonah]

Like here's his post, and good god it's the hedgiest thing I've ever seen. He pretty much says "could be mafia, but then again, could be town" 15 times. And then talks about how much more helpful he'll be tomorrow. It's just pure fluff.

I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.

The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.

Saying that about some people on your list? Sure. It's honest.
Saying that about every single person in the town? Why would you even make the post?

[jotheonah]

I'll endeavor for more tonal consistency. Except, no I won't, because I'm pretty committed to the transparent, this is the way I play thing, it's literally the only thing I've got going for me. I'll admit my tone changes. I'll admit their could be a correlation between my tone and whether or not I expect to survive the day. I won't admit that that's scummy. I was all like "KILL ME!" and then you guys were like "meh, let's not kill him" so now I'm like, "Ok fine I'll scumhunt and be a helpful townie, we can kill someone else."

The point is, I'm a team player. 

[popsofctown]

mkay it's okiday to hammer Axxle grease now.

[jotheonah]

I have to say, I like that the main reason for lynching me now appears to be a backhanded compliment. That's something.

[Grujah]

Grujah - Doesn't adequately explain himself much of the time. Slight scum but it looks like a mislynch waiting to happen.

Hmm.. this is either him being town and right, or him trying to make me undo my vote. 

[Captain_Frisk]

well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.

Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.

Do you anyone you are not suspicious of?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...
No? Ok, I'll do it quickly because I need to rush to work:

Captain_Frisk - I don't like his relationship with SFS, don't remember much else.

LOL. Yes, I have a very strong relationship with CF, as I made clear in #1009 (p41).  It's the same sort of relationship I have with you, as evidenced by my vote on you.  Do you even read my posts?

But props for cleverness.  This simple, "no big deal" type sentence accomplishes so much from your perpective:

a) If I'm on target with post 1009 (and your post makes me believe more strongly that I am - that you and CF are mafia), this is a thinly veiled message to a potential third mafia to keep an eye on what I'm posting, as I might inflict further damage.  A loyal mafia would not want me to have a damaging relationship with his partner.
b) "Don't remember much else" deflects from CF, without CF having to do it himself.  Allow me to rephrase it for you: "hey town, CF can't be mafia, cause he's done so little".
c)  "Don't remember much else" also lets you distance yourself from the post if you survive.  You can simply go on "not remembering much about CF".

[popsofctown]

Opal come hammer this sucka.

[Captain_Frisk]

a) If I'm on target with post 1009 (and your post makes me believe more strongly that I am - that you and CF are mafia), this is a thinly veiled message to a potential third mafia to keep an eye on what I'm posting, as I might inflict further damage. 

I want to let this slide, but a post with my name in it 6 times is just too much fun to ignore.

The theory you are putting forth is:

1.  Axxle and I are both mafia
2.  At some point we agreed that we would do some misdirection on Day 1 and accuse Axxle
3.  Instead of jumping on a pops or J bandwagon, I instead assist with the creation of a bandwagon on my mafia teammate.  Note, while I was the 3rd vote, I almost discount J's vote because I don't view anything he does while being pressured by town to be credible. 
4.  We get up everyone riled up to 7 votes, and I continue to sit here, waiting for the hammer to fall

I really have a hard time seeing how this is good mafia play.

The slowness of this wagon, and the fact that no-one is hedge jumping off it makes me feel better about being on it.  If he flips town, I fully expect Galzria and I will be the focus of suspicion tomorrow for arguing for his lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

Opal come hammer this sucka.

I know you're playing this game nice and terse, and trying hard to fight O for the most unhelpful player, but any reasons why Opal should come hammer him?

[Grujah]

Also, what do we do night? Any good target for any potential abilities?

[Robz888]

Opal come hammer this sucka.

I know you're playing this game nice and terse, and trying hard to fight O for the most unhelpful player, but any reasons why Opal should come hammer him?

So we can get on with things, I assume. I don't really think Axxle is mafia and even I want to hammer him, just to move on.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't really think Axxle is mafia and even I want to hammer him, just to move on.

I'm pretty sure you have the power to do so.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Grujah - I promised to look into my votes on both J and Axxle.  I did this quick and dirty by checking my posts in my profile. I have not confirmed the data against the votecount posts that Volt is making, so I could have made an errror.  Unfortunately, post #s dont appear in the versions under my profile, so I can't reference specific posts, but I felt like time was of the essence.

Here is my vote history:
O - for being in favor of voting randomly. 

Axxle - for an approach to the game that would allow a post I found beyond frivolous, but which Axxle said (and I confirmed with review) was in response to a direct information request.  I think that was the first vote for Axxle, but I made it on a tiny bit of knowledge.  Perhaps this is where the notion started that I was anti-humor, but I didn't read it as an attempt at humor, it seemed too .... something.  I think this was the very 1st vote for Axxle, but I'm not claiming any credit here, as my vote was based on a faulty assumption.

Robz, to get a response

Then Robz again, for the reasons I outlined at the time.  I "invited" a bandwagon, which never got above 1 vote.

Jotheonah - I made vote #6 on the current wagon, and as I said at the time, I did it to see what happened.  By that, I meant several things. If people jumped off, who and why?  If people jumped on, who and how quickly.  But I also wanted to see if the count went to 8 at all, to get a feel for how quickly the game state changes.

And finally, Axxle, where I was #4 on the current wagon.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I don't see a difference between saying "could be mafia, could be town" and other folks using terms like "slight scumread", its more explicitly a hedge, but neither is a statement of pure confidence.

The only people who can be clearly confident... are mafia.

I strenuously disagree.  The only people who can be confident are townies. They never have to look like something they aren't.

[Robz888]

Also, what do we do night? Any good target for any potential abilities?

Uh, my advice here is seemingly obvious: Investigate the suspicious and Protect people who are in danger.

Who is suspicious? I would advise anybody with investigative powers to possibly look at Jo, Grujah, Theorel, Gloobe.

And I would advise Doctor/Jailkeepers to protect whoever they think is going to die tonight. Probably the person who is going to die is someone who has been forceful and helpful to the town. You can figure out which people fall into that category.

[Robz888]

I don't really think Axxle is mafia and even I want to hammer him, just to move on.

I'm pretty sure you have the power to do so.

I know. But I'd never forgive myself if I did it and Axxle flipped town. And I let somebody else off the hook that way.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@Jo: I understand the points you are making. I agree about Insomniac's post. Maybe I should re-evluate him. And I agree that it's easy to have hedging, hiding mafia in posts like that. I don't think mine is guilty of that.

I also must point this out: Jo, your tone seems to change remarkably depending on how much danger you are in.

+1 for this observation.

Of course you would like this observation.  It brings Jo back into the picture, which may help Axxle out of a bind.

[jotheonah]

well, ok. This is yet another area where I disagree with the conventional wisdom apparently. I've been watching Insomniac and it was like "why all the short posts" and he was all "iPhone" and then when he came back for his much promised long post it was a person-by-person thing, and it just struck me that that was such an easy post to make, as compared with a long case against a single person or on a single topic. So it made me wonder about the usefulness of those posts for mafia vs for town.

Sidebar, for those of you following along at home, I'm starting to get suspicious of Insomniac.

Do you anyone you are not suspicious of?

Several people. But I accomplish nothing by listing them.

[Galzria]

I agree with Robz that a Cop should investigate the suspicious. I strongly disagree with his list. I think the Cop should use their own reads, and not be influenced. Mafia will mislead with names, Town won't know for sure, so could suggest bad ideas.

Protectors, Robz is spot on. Protect the town people you find most helpful. Again, decide for yourself based on the lynch flip.

Vig, hold off unless you're confident. I'm not sure though. Not familiar enough with the role and it's intricacies.

[Captain_Frisk]

I agree with Robz that a Cop should investigate the suspicious. I strongly disagree with his list. I think the Cop should use their own reads, and not be influenced. Mafia will mislead with names, Town won't know for sure, so could suggest bad ideas.

Protectors, Robz is spot on. Protect the town people you find most helpful. Again, decide for yourself based on the lynch flip.

Vig, hold off unless you're confident. I'm not sure though. Not familiar enough with the role and it's intricacies.

While reviewing roles on the wiki for playing in closed games, I found this note to be especially hilarious:

As a final note, generally when given the choice between being able to kill someone or being able to do almost anything else, players will choose to kill someone. Balance your games accordingly

From: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Vigilante

[Grujah]

What about one-shots?

My general perceptions:
1-Shot Vig should not go for it unless he is certain. (or if he highly suspects his night-death).
1-Shot Doc is more efficent with lesser players as you have more chance to heal right, but than again.. (also, if you highly likely to die, sure, you should protect somebody else but unless there multiple kills its wasted anyhow).
Now, 1-Shot Cop .. It is only one which is useless if doesn't survive the actual night when he uses it. So I guess he shouldn't wait for it too long?

[Galzria]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

[Captain_Frisk]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

+1 for that... and off to spotify.  I wonder what % of people will get the reference.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...
I want to let this slide, but a post with my name in it 6 times is just too much fun to ignore.

The theory you are putting forth is:

1.  Axxle and I are both mafia
2.  At some point we agreed that we would do some misdirection on Day 1 and accuse Axxle
3.  Instead of jumping on a pops or J bandwagon, I instead assist with the creation of a bandwagon on my mafia teammate.  Note, while I was the 3rd vote, I almost discount J's vote because I don't view anything he does while being pressured by town to be credible. 
4.  We get up everyone riled up to 7 votes, and I continue to sit here, waiting for the hammer to fall

I really have a hard time seeing how this is good mafia play.

The slowness of this wagon, and the fact that no-one is hedge jumping off it makes me feel better about being on it.  If he flips town, I fully expect Galzria and I will be the focus of suspicion tomorrow for arguing for his lynch.

It would be good mafia play because it's incredibly bold and misdirecting if it works.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained. And if there are 3 mafia, then even in the event of failure, you still have a safety margin - you would not be the lone remaining mafia.

As to your other points - Maybe you had faith in the slowness of the wagon, based on your knowledge of (most of) the players and the game's discussion of the relative merits of quick lynches versus not.  (I'll have to go back and look for comments on that topic, especially from you and Axxle.) And for obvious reasons, you can't jump off now, it would look so MAFIA.  But you've done a nice job of "explaining" why you aren't jumping - you "feel better" 'cause no one has jumped.  I submit that you feel better precisely because you are 'continuing to sit, waiting for the hammer to fall' rather than dealing with Axxle's demise.

[jotheonah]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

+1 for that... and off to spotify.  I wonder what % of people will get the reference.

I know this isn't the reference, but this is where my mind went:

[jotheonah]

Raise your hand if you're buying SFS's case right now.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

+1 for that... and off to spotify.  I wonder what % of people will get the reference.

Are you going to spotify the Group W bench, or spotify the envelope that I put at the bottom of that pile of garbage?

[Galzria]

Raise your hand if you're buying SFS's case right now.

I won't discredit much at this point, but I'm not looking or thinking pairs until I see a flip.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill. I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL." And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL," and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL, KILL." And the sargent came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall, said, "You're our boy."

+1 for that... and off to spotify.  I wonder what % of people will get the reference.

Are you going to spotify the Group W bench, or spotify the envelope that I put at the bottom of that pile of garbage?

I ALWAYS have a radio on on Thanksgiving, particularly at noon.

[O]

O - Trying to generate discussion, but not succeeding.  O is currently my strongest town read.

O -- I like O, what can I say? And I'm one of the people who hates and suspects humor! Seriously, I like O. He makes good points, I think. Don't get any suspicion reading from him. That's probably my fault. I think I am prone to over-suspect the new people and under-suspect the veterans.

Damnit guys, now I'll either be killed for being obvtown or become highly suspicious when they don't kill off an obvtown.

[Axxle]

@O: there are people who say you are useless though.

[Captain_Frisk]

@O: there are people who say you are useless though.

I think O's play makes alot of sense - for O:

1. If Mafia - he can do whatever he wants, and point to "thats just the way I play - see threads X,Y,Z"  In fact, we're all doing it FOR HIM.
2. If town - he's likely to avoid night kills - so that he can be an asset to the town in the future.

Now - whether this is pro town or not is dependent on whether or not you consider there to be skill differentiation in this game, and whether or not the value to the town on Day 2 compensates for the negative utility he provides to the town by not providing anything trustworthy.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site.  I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.

[Captain_Frisk]

This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site.  I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.

Test successful.  I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.

[jotheonah]

This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site.  I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.

Test successful.  I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.

Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?

[Captain_Frisk]

This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site.  I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.

Test successful.  I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.

Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?

Was just needling SFS who is apparently seeing triples.

[jotheonah]

Oh right. Jokes. I like those.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This is a test post, given our recent problems with the site.  I can't imagine no one posting in an hour.

Test successful.  I am not posting because I'm pretty sure I've figured out all of the scum, and everyone's roles, and am just double checking it.

Well that's a very bold claim. Care to enlighten us?

Was just needling SFS who is apparently seeing triples.

Double triples.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh right. Jokes. I like those.

It is pretty boring over here.  We're @ 7.  No-one on the bandwagon has shown any interest in getting off.  RobZ won't be moving on.  Galz and Axxle are offline.  We're about to go into the weekend, where posting patterns are going to shift (I'm going to go silent, people who can't post at work might be more talkative).  Why not have some fun with SFS?

[Galzria]

Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!

[jotheonah]

I think it's time to restate my "Galzria is a dominion and mafia playing AI gained sentience" theory.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!

At some point a few minutes ago - it said you were offline - which I noted as completely out of character.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Oh right. Jokes. I like those.

It is pretty boring over here.  We're @ 7.  No-one on the bandwagon has shown any interest in getting off.  RobZ won't be moving on.  Galz and Axxle are offline.  We're about to go into the weekend, where posting patterns are going to shift (I'm going to go silent, people who can't post at work might be more talkative).  Why not have some fun with SFS?

Fabulous idea, cause you know that I'm still trying to lie low.  Besides, Ima fun guy, for an old fart.  I like juggling, origami,  oh wait, I thought I was posting in Mafia III.

[jotheonah]

[Galzria]

Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!

At some point a few minutes ago - it said you were offline - which I noted as completely out of character.

It was SFS's fault for mentioning server crashes.

[Glooble]

Glooble - many of the things he says feel like he's just rehashing what others have said.  Scum read here.

And others of you have said similar things about me lately. I'm not super worried about it, but since we have time, I thought I'd address it.

I went back and reviewed Axxle's case. Several things popped out at me, and I stated them so you would all know why I was voting for him. It so happens that many of these things were brought to my attention by Galz, pops and others. That's what happens when you're the sixth person on a band wagon. If know one gets swayed by what other people say, what's the point of anyone saying anything? If everyone has to have brand new ideas every time they post, I'm pretty sure you never get a lynch. Sometimes a townie needs to sit back, read the existing arguments, and join whichever existing bandwagon seems viable.

I'm not blindly trusting Galz or anyone else. They said things about Axxle, I read back and found their posts convincing. I didn't find anything startling new to add, so I just tried to restate what they'd said and give a little more detail on some of Axxle's actions and why they seem scummy. Specifically, my theorizing on his reason for giving us the articles. I'm sorry I'm not contributing as much as some of you, but I'm doing my best with a very confusing and overwhelming game. Perhaps Day 2 when we have more concrete info I will find more useful connections.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@ All:

Where the heck is Tables? He's only posted twice since yesterday about noon EDT (#897 and #928), and was leaning towards voting Axxle in those two posts.

VOLTGLOSS: IF I CAN TRUST THE PROFILE INFO, GREEN OPAL HAS NOT POSTED FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS.  CAN YOU PING HIM PLEASE?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Hey, I take offense at that! I'm never offline! I've got (nearly) 20 days logged to prove it!

At some point a few minutes ago - it said you were offline - which I noted as completely out of character.

It was SFS's fault for mentioning server crashes.

Again, to correct the record:  I used a very generic phraseology "problems with the site".

I would never anger the god of the pre-gloat by mentioning the words that Galzria did.  I also don't quote from the Scottish play, or mention the number that falls between 6 and 8 once the come-out roll is made.

What, do you think I'm new?  (Robz, this one doesn't count).

[Axxle]

Hi

[Axxle]

Will check intermittently as long as my phone survives.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Damn, I started typing INSIDE the quote tags.  Oh well, you guys will figure it out, I'm not retyping just for humor.

EVERYONE NOTE:  Galzria's words in the above quote end at "for mentioning s.....  cr...es."

[Galzria]

Damn, I started typing INSIDE the quote tags.  Oh well, you guys will figure it out, I'm not retyping just for humor.

EVERYONE NOTE:  Galzria's words in the above quote end at "for mentioning s.....  cr...es."

I performed on stage for about 10 years. We grew past most* superstitions.

Now the baseball coaching on the other hand.....

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS: IF I CAN TRUST THE PROFILE INFO, GREEN OPAL HAS NOT POSTED FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS.  CAN YOU PING HIM PLEASE?

I have sent a prod to Green Opal.  He has 48 hours from now to post in this thread, or risk replacement.  (If Night 1 starts before then and the thread becomes locked, he must PM me by that same deadline instead.)

[Tables]

Apologies regarding activity. Exam tomorrow, been feeling generally lazy all day and haven't had access to a laptop. Haven't read beyond the end of page 38 yet except skimming this page. Axxle is at -1? That's... interesting. Interesting enough that I actually want to read what's happened and chime in.

[Robz888]

Apologies regarding activity. Exam tomorrow, been feeling generally lazy all day and haven't had access to a laptop. Haven't read beyond the end of page 38 yet except skimming this page. Axxle is at -1? That's... interesting. Interesting enough that I actually want to read what's happened and chime in.

I should hammer Axxle right now, just for the irony points (this is MII reference).

[popsofctown]

I'll catch up on this thread during night.   You dudes are posting a bunch because iso is down huh?

@O: Can we be frenemigos?

@Joth: I think you asked me a question and I forgot.  Could you ask it again?

[Tables]

Tables is the only one that's really read to me as being significantly suspicious of both.  Though I think all have said they'd be willing to lynch jo if they thought getting scum was unlikely.

I have certainly been significantly suspicious of both. I'm much less suspicious of Joth right now, and Axxle I'm kinda 40/60 on mafia/town, which is probably good enough. But the second point... what? No, I've never said anything like that, I don't think anyone's said anything REALLY like that in a serious way.

Unfortunately, I don't have an awful lot to add regarding Axxle. His claim is unsurprising, and kinda believable actually. He's playing pretty reasonably for how I'd expect VT to play. OTOH, he's also playing pretty reasonably for a mafioso pretending to be VT. There's also a WIFOM argument in there (Wine in Front of Me, look it up if you're unfamilar and interested) where him knowing a PR claim would be less likely to get him lynched, so not claiming one makes his claim more likely true. Ah, but he'd know that, so he could be mafia double bluffing. In which case a VT claim is bad for mafia, so mafia would claim a PR knowing a PR claim would be less likely to get him lynched (and repeat ad infinatum).

I have two things I want to add before the day ends.

1) Post 766 by Robz, where he more or less agreed with my list. He added some original analysis, but I got a distinct flavour of Robz trying to buddy up to me, which unnerved me a little. Not sure exactly what to think, but I wanted to record it.

2) O I've found fairly annoying recently, in a kind of passive, unfun to read his posts kind of way. I think I'll have to give it another look during the night to see if it's indicating something sinister, or just O being annoying. But generally combined with his unhelpful earlygame behaviour, I have my eye on him, in short.

[Green Opal]

Hi all. Sorry for the extended delay, and what's about to follow:
So I probably haven't mentioned on here that I'm a final year PhD student, but that's what I am. And it's become evident to me this week that my rapidly increasing writing schedule doesn't give me nearly as much time for random gaming as I'm used to, so I think I actually need to drop out from this game due to time constraints (at least the amount of time it'd take for me to be satisfied that I was getting and providing enough to the game)
So, hopefully I'll be back around at some point when there isn't a thesis looming. Sorry again  And enjoy the rest of the game! I'll probably end up skimming it in a few months or so to see how my suspicions lined up...

[jotheonah]

nooooo staaaay. mafia > academia

[jotheonah]

hey pops, were you being flippant before or do you actually think Insomniac is scummy?

this is what I asked you

[Robz888]

Hi all. Sorry for the extended delay, and what's about to follow:
So I probably haven't mentioned on here that I'm a final year PhD student, but that's what I am. And it's become evident to me this week that my rapidly increasing writing schedule doesn't give me nearly as much time for random gaming as I'm used to, so I think I actually need to drop out from this game due to time constraints (at least the amount of time it'd take for me to be satisfied that I was getting and providing enough to the game)
So, hopefully I'll be back around at some point when there isn't a thesis looming. Sorry again  And enjoy the rest of the game! I'll probably end up skimming it in a few months or so to see how my suspicions lined up...

Voltgloss: Are you going to replace GO?

[Voltgloss]

Hi all. Sorry for the extended delay, and what's about to follow:
So I probably haven't mentioned on here that I'm a final year PhD student, but that's what I am. And it's become evident to me this week that my rapidly increasing writing schedule doesn't give me nearly as much time for random gaming as I'm used to, so I think I actually need to drop out from this game due to time constraints (at least the amount of time it'd take for me to be satisfied that I was getting and providing enough to the game)
So, hopefully I'll be back around at some point when there isn't a thesis looming. Sorry again  And enjoy the rest of the game! I'll probably end up skimming it in a few months or so to see how my suspicions lined up...

Voltgloss: Are you going to replace GO?

I have sent PMs to several potential replacements for Green Opal.  The first one to respond back with a "yes" will be replaced in.

[Grujah]

Sent one to Robz, right?

[Robz888]

Sent one to Robz, right?

Ha! Now that's comedy.

[Grujah]

Is that you accusing me of scumming?

[popsofctown]

Insomniac was scummy but not on the same level as Axxle

[Axxle]

Insomniac was scummy but not on the same level as Axxle

I am the Dougz had to lift the level cap for my scumminess.

[O]

I know you're playing this game nice and terse, and trying hard to fight O for the most unhelpful player, but any reasons why Opal should come hammer him?

*slow claps* most unhelpful player? I admire your creativity.

[Dsell]

I haven't been able to get on much today, I've just checked on my iPod a few times to try to stay caught up.

I wanted to quickly say why I believe Axxle's roleclaim but not jotheonah's.

-Axxle's was under distress. He could have claimed PR but he didn't. It's a WIFOM argument but it is far more convincing to me than jo's claim which came when he had hardly any suspicion. Jo's felt much more like a passing remark that he hoped no one would make a big deal of.

-Axxle's was purposeful and clear. It's obvious that a vanilla townie about to be lynched has nothing to lose by claiming. It doesn't clear him but there was practically zero risk to do it. Jo's was supposedly accidental, which just seems so ludicrous to me. If he is townie, his role is literally the only piece of for sure information he has in the game. How do you just forget that?

-Axxle's behavior fits his description. He has been sheepish and sorta all over the place. Obviously this has made some get a town read and others a mafia read, but at least he admits it. But like I've said before, jo has made posts that make it seem like he thinks he's in control of the game, or at least his game. And yet he has made these ridiculous and accidental claims and blames "careless play."

[theorel]

Alright, I reviewed Axxle's posts.  I'm no more confident than before, but no less suspicious.  Axxle played straight-faced right to the end of MI...and he was obviously mafia with no way out.  I don't really expect anything different from him this time.  I think this is a town-wagon, regardless of Axxle's role which makes me feel way better about the vote than I would otherwise.  The discussion in here has already pretty much died.  It feels like people are just waiting for Axxle to drop.  I'm really glad Axxle weighed in before his death, I'm glad Tables and Grujah both said something.  I guess this is where I pull the trigger...feels weird.

Vote: Axxle

Good night everybody.  Hope to see you in the morning.

[Galzria]

Here's hoping for the best.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-16

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch
 

Galzria stood up and argued the case against Axxle.  With twenty-seven eight-by-ten colour glossy photographs with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to be used as evidence against Axxle.

And jotheonah and Captain_Frisk and SwitchedFromStarcraft all agreed that this called for a typical case of Dominion blind justice, and popsofctown and Glooble passed around the shovels and rakes and implements of destruction, and they all had Axxle immediately arrested.  Handcuffed.  And marched him off to the Cellar and put him in a cell.  And Grujah asked Axxle for his wallet and his belt.

And Axxle said, "Grujah, I can understand you wanting my wallet so I don't have any Silvers to spend in the cell, but what do you want my belt for?"

And Grujah said, "Axxle, we don't want any hangings."

And there was a pause.

And then theorel said, "Wait, yes we do!" and they all lunged forward and hung Axxle with his own belt.

When it was done they searched his body and found the key to his room at the Estate.  When they got there, they found Axxle had taken out all the furniture in his room, and so apparently decided that he didn't have to take out his garbage for a long time.  So they searched the garbage.  And at the bottom of the garbage, they found an envelope with Axxle's name on it.

And inside was a form, filled out and signed by Axxle and certified by none other than the deceased Lord himself:

"Name: Axxle
Occupation: Town Vanilla"

And they began to cry.


Axxle, Town Vanilla, has been lynched.  We will now have (at least) 48 hours of night. 

Roles with access to quicktopics can now discuss with each other therein.  Roles with nighttime abilities should please PM me their actions.  Action PMs must be sent no later than Sunday, June 10, 11:00 p.m. EDT.  If I do not receive your action PM by that time, you will default to taking NO action during Night 1.

You may not post in this thread until Day 2 starts.  Day 2's start time will depend on how quickly I get a replacement for Green Opal.  Assuming I get a replacement sometime by midday Sunday, Day 2's start will likely be between 11:00 pm and midnight EDT, Sunday evening.  If Green Opal has not been replaced by then, I will post to that effect and extend Night 1 as necessary. 

The dead may not talk until the game is over.  Deceased non-Mafia players may request a link to the spectators' discussion Quicktopic by sending me a PM.

THIS THREAD IS NOW LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

A replacement has been found for Green Opal, so we will begin Day 2 this evening as originally scheduled.

[Voltgloss]

Eleven people shuffled out of their rooms, bleary-eyed, not quite ready to face the day but relieved to have lived through the night.

Eleven people watched with amazement as Green Opal's door opened and out walked, not Green Opal, but the recently lynched Axxle.  Who smiled at them.  "Sorry for the shock, but y'know, Axxle looked so stylish last night - right up until he was killed, of course - that I figured some late-night Remodeling of my own appearance was necessary.  Pretty convincing, eh?"

But that was only the first shock of the morning.  Twelve people walked to the Throne Room for a breakfeast, only to find two others had gotten there ahead of them.  Apparently late in the night, to play a friendly match of Dominion, as the cards were all laid out on a table between them.

Covered in blood from their viciously splattered heads. 

One body had fallen back out of his chair and lay splayed on the floor.  A search of the corpse uncovered Insomniac's room key.  A quick visit to his room found nothing out of the ordinary, and indeed uncovered notarized documentation cementing his status as (now-deceased) Town Vanilla.

The other body had fallen forward, hand outstretched to the cards, about to pick up his next buy.  It was a Village.  Tipping the corpse over, they found his deck.  It consisted of seven Coppers, three Estates, and the other nine Villages. 

A quick check of the corpse's coat revealed theorel's room key, but they didn't even need to visit there to know his identity: Town Village Idiot.

Twelve people looked at each other.  Who would be next? 

Day 2 Start

Insomniac, Town Vanilla, has been killed.
theorel, Town Village Idiot, has been killed.
Axxle has replaced Green Opal.

Not voting: Galzria, Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, O, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, Grujah, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

THIS THREAD IS NOW UNLOCKED.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well this is going to make thread searching confusing.

[O]

Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult

[Captain_Frisk]

Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult

I think its: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Innocent_Child

Has the ability to have the Mod confirm role, but presumably something you don't really want to do.

[Axxle]

Well this is going to make thread searching confusing.

Quite.

Also:

Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult

If you check the first post, it's a rethemed Innocent Child.  "At any time during the game, you may send a PM to the Mod asking to be revealed.  The Mod will then in his next post publicly announce you as a Village Idiot, confirming you as Town."

[popsofctown]

uh.   As much as I'd love for you to be alive I think we lynched you yesterday Axxle.

[Axxle]

If you're going through the archive I have now replaced Green Opal.  Ignore any posts by Axxle before this (minus the previous post) and instead take into consideration Green Opal's posts.

(for non-confusing searches)

[O]

Erm... What's a village idiot? Mafiascum wiki didn't have it outside of just an insult

I think its: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Innocent_Child

Has the ability to have the Mod confirm role, but presumably something you don't really want to do.

Useful if it's lategame or we were going to lynch him.

[Voltgloss]

uh.   As much as I'd love for you to be alive I think we lynched you yesterday Axxle.

Axxle has replaced Green Opal.  Apologies for any confusion but the alternative was to drag out Night 1.  I sent about 12 PM's to potential replacements and they all responded with some variation of "nah."  Axxle was good enough to step up for reincarnation.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok... so we lost 2 last night, which means we have at least 1 person with night killing powers (Vig, One Shot Vig, Serial Killer).

It's been a long weekend, so I think i'm going to noodle on this and check back in the AM.

[Glooble]

So it would appear we have a witch, or an overzealous woodcutter/ militia.

[Glooble]

Ninja'd.

[Captain_Frisk]

So it would appear we have a witch, or an overzealous woodcutter/ militia.

I suppose it is also technically possible that we have both... and a lucky doctor / jailkeeper, but that is unlikely. 

[Axxle]

My first thought is that Theorel was killed for being too town, and Insomniac was killed for being too scum.

[Axxle]

That might mean that we have a woodcutter/militia, but it could also mean that a Witch wanted to appear as one while killing the competition.

[popsofctown]

ugh... I hate recycled replacements.

It's a lot more tolerable for a lynched VT though.  What's really [politically incorrect word] is when the mafia shoot a player to silence him, and the mod replaces him back into the game.

[popsofctown]

Witch doesn't have to have an impersonation motive to kill Insomniac.  After a mislynch, mafia is considered to be winning, so, default SK play is to shoot the scum.  Here he missed.

Pretty sure theorel was an scum kill.  He was so townish I don't think that indicates he was particularly on target, but his content is now a confirmed town perspective

[jotheonah]

Well, my reads on Axxle and Insomniac were both way off. I'm gonna have to do some digging to figure out who the heck IS scum. And I may not be able to get to it until tomorrow night. RL stuff.

[Dsell]

This is going to be so confusing with Axxle... I'm actually really glad Green Opal didn't say much because otherwise I think my head would explode keeping them straight.

Pops, your first paragraph you say you don't think a witch has motive to kill Insomniac and in your second you think theorel was a scum kill, so are you thinking we have a woodcutter/militia who killed Insomniac? So maybe no witch involved? Should this person step up to claim it or is that a bad idea?

Axxle, what do you mean about too town and too scum? I got a town read from both of them for the most part, but I thought Theorel was a little scummier, misrepresenting people and throwing the hammer on...er...you.

[Axxle]

Well, my reads on Axxle and Insomniac were both way off. I'm gonna have to do some digging to figure out who the heck IS scum. And I may not be able to get to it until tomorrow night. RL stuff.

I assume you mean Axxle1?

It would be less confusing if we referred to me as Axxle2 and that horrid town player that got himself lynched as Axxle1.

Side note: Does this mean I'm currently beating Robz at his own game?

[Axxle]

This is going to be so confusing with Axxle... I'm actually really glad Green Opal didn't say much because otherwise I think my head would explode keeping them straight.

Pops, your first paragraph you say you don't think a witch has motive to kill Insomniac and in your second you think theorel was a scum kill, so are you thinking we have a woodcutter/militia who killed Insomniac? So maybe no witch involved? Should this person step up to claim it or is that a bad idea?

Axxle, what do you mean about too town and too scum? I got a town read from both of them for the most part, but I thought Theorel was a little scummier, misrepresenting people and throwing the hammer on...er...you.

I think more people suspected Insomniac more than Theorel.  I'll go back and check.

[jotheonah]

Yes, I meant Axxle1, of course. I couldn't stand that guy, but you seem nice A2. Welcome to the town.

[Axxle]

Not as clear cut as I thought, only Axxle1, pops, jotheonah had much suspicion on Insomniac just looking at the last meatday or so of the previous mafiaday.  With you and O also indicating some suspicion on Theorel.  There wasn't a lot of strong suspicion on either very late, I'll probably need to dig deeper when I have the time.

[O]

I believe I had a vote left on theorel, which I stand by. Mafia want me to look scummy? I don't think the serial killer would care if I did or not.

Or mebbe Im vig. (no)

[Galzria]

Interesting developments... For many reasons.

Re: Insomniac:

I never got much of a read. I didn't like that until the very end his posts were mostly 5 lines or less. He lurked, but said enough to be present. The Mafia could've killed him because he didn't draw much attention to himself, so would be hard to target D2. A Witch or Militiaman/Woodcutter may have targeted him because he DID lurk so effectively, so might have been Mafia. For me personally, he was a "middle-of-the-pack" guy.

Re: Theorel:

Kind of sad to see him go. There was definitely suspicion his way from a number of people based on his twisting of the facts. I actually thought he made some great observations, even if they did occasionally need to be fact-checked. I don't know how much we can draw from his suspicions while alive, without getting into WIFOM debates. Still worth looking, but would the Mafia kill him because he WAS onto them, or to cast suspicion on the people he suspected?

As far as being killed by a third party? Not sure. I could understand why a Witch might, but was he really the best choice of target for a Vig equivalent? Not sure.

Re: A1: I wish he'd been more forward early on. But I don't have the power to bring him back, so I've got to move forward. Mistake made, lesson learned.

@Pops: You were very critical of Insomniac, very early on, without a whole lot of explication. Can you elaborate now why you would have been happy with him being lynched D1?

@O: What're your thoughts and feelings? You didn't like the lynch of Axxle1, and were on Pops most of the game. Have your reads changed?

@Robz: I promised not to forget the crazy, and here we are. What are your overall feelings, and thoughts about J now?

Where I stand: I don't like J's play round 1. I was willing to write it off, but some weren't. He might've pulled one over on us (read: me). Worth reconsidering. I also have not liked much of Grujah's votes and reasons. He seemed happy to lynch, without caring who. Somebody mentioned he is a mislynch waiting to happen... I'm on the fence about that. Lastly, Pops - I have a hard enough time with O, and his Pop's play has been even worse. I'm not sure that's a good reason to lynch him, but perhaps moreso than anybody else, he has seemed determined to be as unhelpful as possible, only responding when really called out on it.

As for Axxle2.... Well, you pulled off Axxle1's look spot on. I don't really know WHAT to do with you, as G.O. Didn't leave much to go on. So.... Yeah. Welcome to the Estate.

[Grujah]

Very quick pre-exam post:

I'm pretty sure Theo is Witch kill,trying to weed out competition; no real need for mafia to kill him, many people though of him scummy. Though it is possible to be overeager Vig, as if I were Vig, Theo really was on top of my list for NK. Only reason I see for theo dieing if he was "on to them" but... Will need to review post of both of them now.

Also Theo being Village Idiot probably means no Masons, (considering this is most likely C9++).

So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? 

[O]

@O: What're your thoughts and feelings? You didn't like the lynch of Axxle1, and were on Pops most of the game. Have your reads changed?

Still Freyendenenememies with pops.

I didn't like the lynch of Axxle1, and I was right. Axxle2 is terrible though and should be policy lynched (no, not really).

I've unfortunately not very progressed with actual suspicions right now. Still mostly pops, captain frisk and SFS annoy me.

[Galzria]

Also, for my own notes: Dsell, Glooble, and Tables have been really unmemeroble to me so far this game. I need to go back and reread their posts. Does anybody have any lasting thoughts about those three from D1?

[O]

Apparently nobody does.

Dsell and Theorel were at eachother a bunch, WIFOM, blah blah.
Glooble has an awesome name. It's hard to suspect someone named Glooble. On the other hand he sure has mostly lurked.
Tables has been far less active than I would have expected him to be.

[Dsell]

Apparently nobody does.

Dsell and Theorel were at eachother a bunch, WIFOM, blah blah.
Glooble has an awesome name. It's hard to suspect someone named Glooble. On the other hand he sure has mostly lurked.
Tables has been far less active than I would have expected him to be.

Me and Theorel weren't at each other, he was after me. I maintained that I thought he was town but he misrepresented me a couple times which was concerning. YOU however wanted to start a bandwagon on him.

Because everyone seems to think I'm forgettable (not sure what I'm supposed to do about this...), let me go over basically where I was at yesterday.

Suspicious of:
Jotheonah, strongly. Still suspicious. He was on the Axxle wagon.
Grujah, somewhat. For pretty much the reasons listed everywhere. Really odd behavior and hasn't really accounted for it. Not sure there is enough to build a case on it. Yet.
Pops, at least early. He managed to do some marginally helpful things later in the day but his style of play (shutting other ideas down) bothered me and he has not been very helpful for probably the most experienced player among us.
SFS, also early. He was posting a whole lot of nothing for a while. He finally got around to saying some things, including a conspiracy theory surrounding Axxle1. So a bit of an oddball but I admit that he's probably town.

Not suspicious of:
Axxle1. I felt like his lynch was a bad idea, I really didn't see the merits of the case against him. Not the best townie though, hoping Axxle2 can be more clear about things.

Voted against me:
Captain_Frisk, but he later dropped it. He said I was too middle-of-the-road I guess because I didn't have any really strong convictions at that point.
Theorel, so that sucks cause now I look bad. I explained this above. This guy was frustrating though. He made a case against me but then threw the hammer on Axxle.

I really don't know how to analyze the night kills. I still say that from my perspective, Theorel was scummier than Insomniac. But it's hard to say who offed who when we don't even know if the extra kill was done by a witch or a town vig-type role.

[O]

Apparently nobody does.

Dsell and Theorel were at eachother a bunch, WIFOM, blah blah.
Glooble has an awesome name. It's hard to suspect someone named Glooble. On the other hand he sure has mostly lurked.
Tables has been far less active than I would have expected him to be.

Me and Theorel weren't at each other, he was after me. I maintained that I thought he was town but he misrepresented me a couple times which was concerning. YOU however wanted to start a bandwagon on him.


Because everyone seems to think I'm forgettable (not sure what I'm supposed to do about this...), let me go over basically where I was at yesterday.

Suspicious of:
Jotheonah, strongly. Still suspicious. He was on the Axxle wagon.
Grujah, somewhat. For pretty much the reasons listed everywhere. Really odd behavior and hasn't really accounted for it. Not sure there is enough to build a case on it. Yet.
Pops, at least early. He managed to do some marginally helpful things later in the day but his style of play (shutting other ideas down) bothered me and he has not been very helpful for probably the most experienced player among us.
SFS, also early. He was posting a whole lot of nothing for a while. He finally got around to saying some things, including a conspiracy theory surrounding Axxle1. So a bit of an oddball but I admit that he's probably town.

Not suspicious of:
Axxle1. I felt like his lynch was a bad idea, I really didn't see the merits of the case against him. Not the best townie though, hoping Axxle2 can be more clear about things.

Voted against me:
Captain_Frisk, but he later dropped it. He said I was too middle-of-the-road I guess because I didn't have any really strong convictions at that point.
Theorel, so that sucks cause now I look bad. I explained this above. This guy was frustrating though. He made a case against me but then threw the hammer on Axxle.

I really don't know how to analyze the night kills. I still say that from my perspective, Theorel was scummier than Insomniac. But it's hard to say who offed who when we don't even know if the extra kill was done by a witch or a town vig-type role.

I did want to start a bandwagon on him. And think how informational that bandwagon would have been, him getting up to a bunch of votes and then claiming innocent child! I totally forsaw that.

And you didn't mention me or glooble or tables in your suspicions list, or Axxle2/green opal

[Dsell]

And you didn't mention me or glooble or tables in your suspicions list, or Axxle2/green opal

It was never meant to be comprehensive, and most of you fall into the not-really-sure zone along with probably Galz. Oh and I guess Insomniac was on that list when he was alive too. I don't have strong suspicions of any of you but I'm not sure that I would have strong suspicions of mafia just from day 1 so I rule nothing out. Robz, the last person I think, has sort of an interesting position because we've agreed on a lot of stuff so far. So I'm cautiously optimistic that he's town, that's definitely the read I've gotten.

[Dsell]

Pops, your first paragraph you say you don't think a witch has motive to kill Insomniac and in your second you think theorel was a scum kill, so are you thinking we have a woodcutter/militia who killed Insomniac? So maybe no witch involved? Should this person step up to claim it or is that a bad idea?

@Pops

Ah, after rereading I realized what you meant. You think Insomniac was a witch kill and Theorel was mafia. Huh. I guess this analysis is as good as any. Although Grujah thinks it's the exact opposite.

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

Also, I'd like to remind everyone that I'm going on vacation this Friday, June 15th and will be gone for about a week.

[Axxle]

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

I think if we can figure out if we have a witch or a woodcutter/militia it would be great, but I don't think we have enough info on that.  Pops brought up a good point that witch would want to kill mafia, at least to start so that doesn't seem possible.  I don't think it matters if we determine who's a mafia or wwm kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

I think if we can figure out if we have a witch or a woodcutter/militia it would be great, but I don't think we have enough info on that.  Pops brought up a good point that witch would want to kill mafia, at least to start so that doesn't seem possible.  I don't think it matters if we determine who's a mafia or wwm kill.

Well - sleeping didn't really clarify anything, and it doesn't look like there have been any amazing Day 2 opening claims.  (Tinas v. Ozle is what converted me from "Get this mafia off my damn lawn" into "Holy crap I want to play")

I think I agree with Pops (and someone else above) that Insomniac is the likely scum kill.  My recollection is that both of them were reasonably quiet until later in the thread, and we're probably going to start looking at "Why did we lynch vanilla town" first, so might as well leave those suspects alive.

So, I'm trying to figure out why I voted for Axxle1.  Was I pushed and prodded?  Galz (vote #1) started stuff up @ 760 and asked us to look at it a few times until it started to get some steam with J and I.

J is still J. (vote #2)  He had no influence on my vote.

I voted #3, apparently with a bad read, but I became more confident as the bandwagon got stuck, and there was more resistance vs. how quickly the J bandwagon took off.

I'm curious to see how SFS (#4) feels about his triple mafia theory now.

pops (#5) is a strange bird.  He's been very deliberate re: what he's willing share regarding his though processes with the group.

I didn't like the Glooble / Grujah 6/7 rapid fire bandwagon after they were called out for being quiet.

theorel (#8) is dead.

All right - so I've laid it all out, and I still don't know what I think.  My gut says to go back to looking at J, or Galz - who managed to defend J by getting someone else lynched.  My gut also told me to stick with Axxle too, so maybe I should just go get some breakfast instead.

[popsofctown]

I would not have been happy with a day 1 Insomniac lynch at any point.  I voted him for pressure and investigation, but I'm not Robz and that doesn't mean I'd see him hammered.  I thought he was scummier than even chances but not anywhere near the threshhold for a lynch.


@Glooble: Why was Axxle1 scummy?

@Grujah: Who is scum?

@myself: Who is the dadgum mafia?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This is a strange game.  And by that, I don't mean this iteration of it, I mean the game itself.  (Yeah, that's fluff).

Well, clearly I was wrong about Axxle, and therefore likely about CF.  I never got any substantial quiet time this weekend to run though the posts of my next party of interest (not Jo) to examine closely.  More on that in a later post if I can work it up.

My only other major thought over the weekend was: What is up with Tables?  He has posted very little, and in the last 10 (roughly) posts he always refers to why he won't be around much.  He also is on very few peoples lists, so if its a ploy, its working.  Taking the advice in Grujah's post at #1113, and figuring my eccentricities meant I was short-lived in this game, I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I don't know how much I'll be able to read or post for the next 12 hours or so.  I'll get caught up when I can.

[Captain_Frisk]

I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I'm not really sure how to read this... It doesn't seem to add a bunch of information, except reducing the reducing the fear of Mafia of being investigated (especially since they are the only ones besides yourself who know whether you are telling the true)

[Captain_Frisk]

So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? 

I find this very scummy.  Galz and I pushed for a lynch on an innocent townie, may he rest in peace.  (Man it's weird to have the dude you lynched in the game with you)

We are already going to look suspicious.  Why would mafia kill us when the town can do it for them? 

Instead, you look to be slyly trying to rile up the rest of the town into lynching us.

[popsofctown]

SFS, that was poor play on your part imo.  It's better to delay the cop inno until the target is in trouble, otherwise, you just change which player gets nightkilled and don't help town process-of-eliminate all that much.

There's also breadcrumbing, which is surprisingly easy to manage and can reveal your investigation uponst your death.

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Doc on SFS tonight.

I would also like to hear why Grujah expected C_F and Galzria to get  shot.

[Voltgloss]

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Yes, if a Witch chooses investigation immunity, they are reported as "Town" to Spy/Adventurer investigations.  Same for Mafia Chancellors (Godfathers).  See the sample role PMs in the intro post.

[Robz888]

Hello, everybody. I am here now. Substance in a minute. For now:

This is a strange game.  And by that, I don't mean this iteration of it, I mean the game itself.  (Yeah, that's fluff).

Well, clearly I was wrong about Axxle, and therefore likely about CF.  I never got any substantial quiet time this weekend to run though the posts of my next party of interest (not Jo) to examine closely.  More on that in a later post if I can work it up.

My only other major thought over the weekend was: What is up with Tables?  He has posted very little, and in the last 10 (roughly) posts he always refers to why he won't be around much.  He also is on very few peoples lists, so if its a ploy, its working.  Taking the advice in Grujah's post at #1113, and figuring my eccentricities meant I was short-lived in this game, I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I don't know how much I'll be able to read or post for the next 12 hours or so.  I'll get caught up when I can.

SFS, what exactly did the mod tell you? Don't quote it, that's illegal. But did the mod say "No role?" or "Vanilla Townie" or "No info" or what? No role and no info are different.

[Robz888]

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Yes, if a Witch chooses investigation immunity, they are reported as "Town" to Spy/Adventurer investigations.  Same for Mafia Chancellors (Godfathers).  See the sample role PMs in the intro post.

Oh, okay. Then it doesn't matter. And we haven't learned much.

[Grujah]

Well, they seemed to be most active scum-hunters to me (theo was, too, but people usually found him scummy) so that's why I expected their deaths.

Pops's above post seems very townie to me. Either that or he knows what we know that he is experienced so he has to show that he "plays smart" 

@Robz - he is factioncop not rolecop.

[Glooble]

@Glooble: Why was Axxle1 scummy?

Primary reason after I thought about it for a while was the articles he linked at the beginning of the game. It felt like a ploy to get the new players on his side while also influencing their playstyle and making them easier to manipulated. Added to his bandwagonning on J and pops, it gave me enough of a scum read to eventually be comfortable voting for him, after some deliberation. Obv. with the new information that he was VT, I'm starting to see that my imagination may have been running away with me a bit. But I was far from the only one to reach the wrong conclusion.

@C.F. I wouldn't call my vote rapid-fire. I took the time to consider what seemed to be the only two viable options, and chose the one who seemed more likely to be scum.

[Glooble]

So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.

Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)

If this is the case, it somewhat exonerates those people with cases against theorel can't rememb er who besides O right now, and Grujah, I think?) but not really because 1. theorel could have been the SK/vig kill and 2.the aforementioned WIFOM scenario.

[Glooble]

Oh, and SFS - I feel like that info helps the mafia more than it helps us. It tells you that either 1. you're lying about the one shot and you're the cop or 2. you have no power role anymore and shouldn't be bothered with. How likely does everyone think it is that we have both a one-shot cop and a regular cop?

[Robz888]

Okay, so the interesting thing is, most of the people who didn't vote for Axxle are dead.

Vote Count 1-16

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Insomniac is dead, and he was a good guy. Same with Axxle1. The only living non-Axxle1 voters are:

Me
Tables
Dsell
O
Green Opal/Axxle2

So my prediction is this: At least some of the mafia voted for Axxle1. My bold prediction would be this: All of them did.

By the way, I was right to defend Axxle1, ha! I thought he was innocent. I also maintained that Insomniac was the most innocent-seeming.

Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.

Just gloating here. Anyway, I didn't trust Theorel very much, so that should bring me down a peg.

Right now I'm trying to look at why the bandwagon against Jo faded into nothing but the bandwagon against Axxle succeeded. I suspect the common denominator there may be the mafia, since we know Axxle1 was innocent and Jo was question mark.

[Tables]

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

I don't think it's very do-able, especially seeing as the mafia currently has a much bigger proportion of town discussion than us and can easily mislead the town thoughts. However, it could be possible to discuss, although I think it'll just devolve down to 'I think X was more town than Y'.

That said, personally I think theorel was more likely the woodcutter/witch kill. There was suspicion against him, and he cast the hammer, which in some people's eyes is enough to raise suspicion level. Imsomniac has been generally relatively quiet but slightly helpful, and would be a safe mafia kill.

SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me). I've been mentioning inactivity because I know I've been inactive due to RL, and generally by the time I reply someone has mentioned 'Oh look Tables is inactive still'. I'm also apparently a lot less able to keep up with proper mafia games than I thought I was.

That said, although I know his result is true (but I'd say that anyway derp), I have no reason to believe he actually did investigate me last night, and neither does anyone else. It's plausible he's mafia, wanting to make a double cover for why he isn't dying (he's used his one shot role) and why he shouldn't be lynched (he correctly pegged a townie!). It's also possible he trusts me completely and wants to make people less suspicious of me, although honestly I can't see this one happening (while I know I'm town, I certainly haven't done enough to clear myself irrevocably). However, this could be because he as a power role of his own and wants to avoid danger on himself from the mafia. In short, I'm not going to trust SFS any more for this information, and don't think it should be regarded too strongly.
So now Theorel's dead, is it worth considering his thoughts that the bandwagon was a townie driven wagon on a townie? Obviously, we can't know for certain, but we do know who voted for Axxle1, who expressed suspicion without voting and who didn't. We also know the hammer didn't come from Mafia (as an aside, it's possible the theorel kill was based on his hammer by a suspicious Witch or vigilante). Correct me if I'm wrong but the order of votes was:

Galzria (1) - 760
Joth (2) - 848
Captain Frisk (3) - 875
SFS (4) - 883
pops (5) - 895
Glooble (6) - 1042
Grujah (7) - 1050
Theorel ( - 1162

Of those, Glooble and Grujah's votes seem the weakest, and came after quite a long break. Glooble's reasoning gave no reasons for his suspicion of Axxle, just that he was suspicious and that we would get information from the lynch. Grujah might have given a reason on an earlier page, but his vote at 1050 and post at 1048 didn't give any reasoning. The closeness of these two's votes, as well as the lack of good reasoning for pushing the wagon right up to 7 isn't exactly leaving me comfortable about them. My notes regarding day 1, however, don't give me an awful lot of other reason to be suspicious of them, but still, I'd be interested to know what reasons those two can give for their votes.

[Tables]

Gosh dang it cool smilie. Also just read Robz post. I'm not sure ALL the mafia voted for Axxle, but I'd certainly expect, with the numbers there, at least some did. Otherwise, Robz, you're making a bold guess that four people are all town (or Witch).

[Robz888]

Galzria (1) - 760
Joth (2) - 848
Captain Frisk (3) - 875
SFS (4) - 883
pops (5) - 895
Glooble (6) - 1042
Grujah (7) - 1050
Theorel ( - 1162

Cut out Theorel (he's dead) and Galzria (he's the first on, and he left the Jo bandwagon) and probably SFS (I don't distrust his claim), and you have arguably the most likely mafia suspects.

[Glooble]

Of those, Glooble and Grujah's votes seem the weakest, and came after quite a long break. Glooble's reasoning gave no reasons for his suspicion of Axxle, just that he was suspicious and that we would get information from the lynch.

Okay, this is starting to piss me off. Say my reasoning was unoriginal. Say you weren't sold on it. But don't say I didn't give any reasons when there are like four posts full of deliberation leading up to my vote, plus the summary post I just gave pops in response to the same question!

[Tables]

Sorry. I've looked back, and there's nothing on your reasons for about 50 posts up to your vote, which is about how far back I looked. So yes, you've given reasons, and you gave reasons day 1. Which just leaves Grujah whose vote strikes me as especially strange.

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, so the interesting thing is, most of the people who didn't vote for Axxle are dead.

Ok - The rules lawyer in me can't let this slide.  This is explicitly false.  7 people didn't vote for Axxle1.  2 of them are dead.  Most of them are still alive.  Of the 2 that are dead: 1 of them is Axxle1.  Of course he is dead.  We lynched him. 

After Axxle flipped town - it's almost a given that we're going to look at the false lynchers, so it makes sense to let them live.

That said - I do agree with you.  It seems unlikely that with managed to lynch town without the help of scum, although if have the minimum # mafia (2) then this is somewhat plausible... impressive even.

I agree with pops that SFS's roleclaim reads as poor town play. 

From my scumhunting perspective (of course I exclude myself, because I can verify my role PM), that leaves Galz, J, pops, Glooble, Grujah.  I'm pretty sure I could write at least a flimsy argument for any of them, but with my track record, I'm hesitant to start convincing myself of anything.  For sure, they can't all be Mafia.

[Robz888]

@Frisk you are right. When I started writing that post, I was thinking Opal was dead, too, because of the switch-up. Which made it more of a definitive statement.

Anyway, here are some notes on Peak Bandwagon votes against the 3 players that received significant votes:

Pops: Insomniac, O, Galzria, Grujah
Galzria is first off


jotheonah: Green Opal, Galzria, Tables, Axxle, Robz888
Galzria and Tables get off, Dsell and SFS get on
jotheonah: Green Opal, Axxle, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell


Axxle : Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Gloobe, Grujah, Theorel

Notes: Galzria voted for every bandwagon at some point
Grujah voted for Pops and Axxle but not Jo
SFS voted for Jo and Axxle but not Pops

I haven't exactly become less suspicious of Jo, by the way. And one interpretation for me would be that Jo is mafia, and he had the help of mafia co-horts to boost Axxle into lynch territory. Glooble and Grujah look pretty suspicious to me, in that regard.

[jotheonah]

pops, a long long time ago you said my bandwagon was very instructive if I flipped town.  Let's assume (just for the purposes of this exercise) I had been killed and flipped town. What would you know now? Who would you suspect?

[Grujah]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

[Galzria]

@Robz:

I knew being around everywhere would be cause for grief later! Yes, I was "on" every bandwagon. I even (arguably) drove Axxle1's. You and I play the game a little differently. I don't regret making those early votes because watching responses is, I think, very valuable. I was also very quick to get off when I felt we either a) hit the danger zone, or b) I got the information I wanted.

When I finally settled (wrongly) on Axxle1, I was indeed the only vote there. I asked people to review my case, and repeated it when requested, but didn't really push people to climb on board.

Now, if I were Mafia, the only reason I would've jumped off the J wagon would be because I thought it would crash without my help, so I could clear my name. <-- That's a reasonable argument against me.

However, I'm not Mafia. And with the VT reveal on Axxle1, I'm looking at those who were "right" D1. You, and O primarily. You both could be right because of good reads, or because you are Mafia who knew Axxle1's innocence. I'm inclined to go with the former - for now.

So, it interests me greatly to hear if your D1 suspicions, both of whom lived, are still in your sights D2. For you Robz, that's Jotheonah. For O, it's popsofctown.

So to summarize: I don't regret being "on" all of the bandwagons. I play differently than your and gained information from each. I regret being wrong on the lynch target, but am moving on. There WAS good info gained, like who was right, and I'm willing to pursue that.

As far as the others on the Wagon: I named Grujah in an earlier post, though as someone pointed out, he may be a mislynch waiting to happen. Glooble got on-board late, and while I'm sure he gave his reasons, I also feel he's been unmemorable, so I couldn't have tools you what they were (outside of his most recent post). SFS I have a hard time reading, since he doesn't engage in conversation. He posts large blocks of "analysis", but then leaves. C.F. I'm more inclined to trust, but couldn't really tell you why. Jotheonah may still get my vote today for his actions yesterday. I don't put much weight in his Axxle1 vote however, as it was an "anybody but me" vote.

[jotheonah]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

[Captain_Frisk]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

An anyone but me voter - quoting a mislynch waiting to happen - as evidence of his townedness.  Color me unconvinced.

Should we just lynch Axxle2, so that maybe we can get an Axxle 3 instead?

[Galzria]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

An anyone but me voter - quoting a mislynch waiting to happen - as evidence of his townedness.  Color me unconvinced.

Should we just lynch Axxle2, so that maybe we can get an Axxle 3 instead?

f.DS Policy Lynch Rule #1:
Name: Axxle
Lynch

[popsofctown]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

[popsofctown]

ballpark.  random.org is your friend.

[jotheonah]

SFS, why the devil did you waste your (alleged) one-shot cop ability on Tables of all people? Wasn't I the OBVIOUS target for a pro-town investigation? or O? One of those people that everyone keeps saying is so hard to figure out and who knowing our allegiance would be so helpful? Knowing about Tables tells us nothing.

[Grujah]

Oh, and SFS - I feel like that info helps the mafia more than it helps us. It tells you that either 1. you're lying about the one shot and you're the cop or 2. you have no power role anymore and shouldn't be bothered with. How likely does everyone think it is that we have both a one-shot cop and a regular cop?

If SFS is not lying, 13-14%.

[Axxle]

Not sure if we should go with that policy.  I'll find a thread about it and link it when I can.

Re SFS investigation: I think there were better people to investigate, but your reasons were solid enough and the fact you're telling us even though it doesn't really give us much information meshes with your actions on previous days.

I'm most worried about the 3 G's.  Grujah seems quiet and opportunistic.  It feels like every post I read of Gloobles I've seen before, like he's rehashing old ideas as his own.  And Galzria seems to be leading every charge.

I'm a little worried about O.  Gut says he has more knowledge then he's letting on.

[Axxle]

Regarding my first line, I was referring to Galzria's joke, when I started writing the post.

[Galzria]

I've only "led" one charge, as far as I can recall...

[Axxle]

I've only "led" one charge, as far as I can recall...

I will go back and verify my statement. One moment, please hold.

[Dsell]

Huh. I had forgotten that Glooble defended jo way back when. He's been pretty forgettable for me, but his defense of jo in addition to his vote on Axxle makes him a bit suspicious in my mind. I will say, though, that his vote on Axxle certainly did not appear as opportunistic as Grujah's. I don't like the defense of jo, though. Even if he is town, his actions are indefensible. And I'm feeling very unconvinced that he's town.

[Grujah]

Not freaking opportunistic!
I believe in case against him, his jumpyness was weird, his bandwagoning was weird, his .. "I unvote J, I am not sure at all" and revote very shortly after (I might be wrong on actually time that passed) when things started to go against him..

[Dsell]

Grujah, the thing is you can say that but I have no way of knowing whether it's true. I didn't say it WAS opportunistic I said it APPEARED opportunistic.

[jotheonah]

Here's the thing Dsell and Robz. Is there anything I could actually do at this point to convince you guys I'm town?

I went a little crazy Day 1; I can't really explain it but a lot of us have moved on from that to looking for real scumz.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, I don't know where to start, so in no particular order:

Regarding bad play on my part - I have no way of knowing what is good and bad, having never played before, and having never read the other Mafia games, except part of Day I for MIII.  That's one reason I made it clear early that I was NOT reading the other threads.

I have no need to debate whether it was bad play, I'll take it on faith that it was.  My thoughts were that I would likely not survive the night, and I didn't want the one extra weapon I had to go wasted.  I did consider that running the investigation might have been a waste, for two reasons. First, anyone I picked was likely to come back "town", even when the player isn't town, and two, I may not be believed when I report the result.  Both of those seemed less grievous errors than allowing the resource to go unused (if I were killed). I did consider that the tool might be more valuable later. I also debated not using the tool simply because I had another whole set of decisions on when and how to report the results (more on that in a moment).

I chose Tables because he had posted so little AND because for every post he had a "reason" for posting so little.  Jo would have been my third choice.  My second choice I've not yet written about, and hope to when I can point out things I've noticed that seem inconsistent to me. I hope that post will be helpful to the town.

I have had the luxury of playing this game with complete transparency.  I've not lied about anything.  I'm very glad I was town, as I would not have known what to do if I were mafia, so I would have done what Tables did.  Post very little, explain why that was, and lay low.  So he caught my eye.

There have been questions about exactly what the moderator said.  I can't quote him, there's a rule against that.  However, from the explanation in my role description on page one, you can see that I was expecting one of three results ("Once at night, you may investigate a player in the game by PM'ing the mod. You will get results back in the form of Town, Antitown or No Result").  I got the single syllable response.  (Hope that gets around the quoting issue.)   That's why my "here's what I have to report post" laid out the three possible scenarios under which I would have gotten the result I got.

I disagree with the post that the doctor should protect me tonite.  I think protection is better spent on someone who might be a town Power Role.

I guess I also need to have it explained why me saying that Tables is town would put a target on him tonite.  Mafia already knew he was town, or that he was mafia, so nothing has changed there.  I don't see why it would increase the chances that an SK would kill him.

One final note: I don't know if this is a game where the presence of people who don't know what they are doing really screws up the game itself, or just adds another note to the overall symphony.  If I've drastically affected the play of the rest of the game in a non-routine way, I sincerely apologize.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

And how do we know this?

[Axxle]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

And how do we know this?

Theo is dead and town.

[jotheonah]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

And how do we know this?

...cause he died.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.

And how do we know this?

Theo is dead and town.

Oh yeah.  Sorry, I'm still focused on being wrong about Axxle.

[Captain_Frisk]

I guess I also need to have it explained why me saying that Tables is town would put a target on him tonite.  Mafia already knew he was town, or that he was mafia, so nothing has changed there.  I don't see why it would increase the chances that an SK would kill him.

I'm newer at this too, but as far as I understand it the logic is:

Truly confirmed town players are bad for mafia - because they can not be accidentally lynched by town.  The mafia would much rather have a town full of people who post like O and PopsOfCTown.

Think about what happens when you get down to 3 players - 1 mafia and 2 town.  If one of those town is confirmed as town, the confirmed town player has the power to win (@ 50% chance)- since both of the the other players will know who the mafia is. 

[O]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.

You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.

[popsofctown]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.

You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.

I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being.  Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle.  You didn't.  You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference?  Did you know they were both town?  Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

[O]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.

You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.

I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being.  Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle.  You didn't.  You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference?  Did you know they were both town?  Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

I parked my vote outside the two bandwagons because they were acting normally and you, SFS and theorel were acting incredibly scummily.

[popsofctown]

And all three of those are town.

[O]

And all three of those are town.

Why don't we lynch J and if he turns out town, Galzria is mafia by that same logic because he was on three townies?

I don't know that you're town, and I don't even neccesarily think you are. I know SFS is a bad town, and maybe he read scummily to me because he was such a bad town. Theorel agreed with just about everything that Captain Frisk said and made some terrible factual mistakes/deliberate misinterpretations of people.

I feel justified in my suspicions, even though 1/3 and probably 2/3 were certainly wrong at this point.

[Axxle]

After reading through Galz's posts a lot I have a better feeling about him.  He definitely seemed to be scumhunting various people constantly.

[Dsell]

Here's the thing Dsell and Robz. Is there anything I could actually do at this point to convince you guys I'm town?

I went a little crazy Day 1; I can't really explain it but a lot of us have moved on from that to looking for real scumz.

That's the catch in these games. There's very little anyone can do to convince anyone else that they're town (aside from dying). You know that. I will say that I will try to not have total jotheonah tunnel vision because that is a very bad idea (that has burned me in the past). But no, obviously there is nothing you can do to convince me 100%.

[jotheonah]

I mean the problem is that I AM town, so from where I'm sitting the case against me is just this horrible distraction from scumhunting, you know?

Like, Night 1 I was super-ok with being the lynch if that was helpful, but at this point a mislynch is a much worse thing for town so I'm really not ok with it.

I don't have a strong scum read on anyone. But I suspect the voters on me, Robz and Dsell a little more, because I feel like a lot of smart players - too many for all of them to be mafia - have seen past my weird play and concluded that, though weird and possibly anti-town, my play is not, and has not been scummy. But Dsell and Robz seem really fixated on me, really unable to make that leap to say "He's playing crazy, but not scummy."  And that bothers me a lot. AND YET if mafia, I would really expect the two of you to be stepping up your game, trying to beat a drum against me.

The weird thing about today (in-game) is that there are really no drums, no bandwagons, no evidence of a mafia train at all, despite that there are obviously many scum about. I really don't know what to do about it.

How many town are we at anyway? Did the double kill put us at an even number? How close to LyLo? Is No Lynch a thing?

[O]

I mean the problem is that I AM town, so from where I'm sitting the case against me is just this horrible distraction from scumhunting, you know?

Like, Night 1 I was super-ok with being the lynch if that was helpful, but at this point a mislynch is a much worse thing for town so I'm really not ok with it.

I don't have a strong scum read on anyone. But I suspect the voters on me, Robz and Dsell a little more, because I feel like a lot of smart players - too many for all of them to be mafia - have seen past my weird play and concluded that, though weird and possibly anti-town, my play is not, and has not been scummy. But Dsell and Robz seem really fixated on me, really unable to make that leap to say "He's playing crazy, but not scummy."  And that bothers me a lot. AND YET if mafia, I would really expect the two of you to be stepping up your game, trying to beat a drum against me.

The weird thing about today (in-game) is that there are really no drums, no bandwagons, no evidence of a mafia train at all, despite that there are obviously many scum about. I really don't know what to do about it.

How many town are we at anyway? Did the double kill put us at an even number? How close to LyLo? Is No Lynch a thing?

[O]

Rage missclick, anyways my post was going to be:


But you see J, I'm mafia *BECAUSE* I saw past your slightly odd play. Just ask pops!

[Glooble]

Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.

So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.

If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.

For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.

If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.

[Galzria]

The problem I have with your assessment of Jotheonah is this Glooble:

He played a MUCH stronger town game in M-II. Robz and I both had to learn our lesson about playing fast and loose as town after our Mafia win, but J's actions just don't follow. If he were town, why would he change up a strategy that stood strongly once already? I would expect a change in composure if he DID have something to hide, not the other way 'round.

[O]

The problem I have with your assessment of Jotheonah is this Glooble:

He played a MUCH stronger town game in M-II. Robz and I both had to learn our lesson about playing fast and loose as town after our Mafia win, but J's actions just don't follow. If he were town, why would he change up a strategy that stood strongly once already? I would expect a change in composure if he DID have something to hide, not the other way 'round.

Stood strongly? I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure that the town in MII went down in flames.

[Galzria]

Yes O, it did, but not because J appeared anything other than town until we needed him to be.

[O]

until we needed him to be.

Exactly..

[jotheonah]

Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?

[Glooble]

During MII he kept complaining in real life that he was spending way too much energy on the game, so I could see him attempting a less mentally strenuous strategy.

[Galzria]

Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?

No.

[O]

Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?

It does take a fine balance to not get yourself lynched...

[jotheonah]

Could it be maybe that I saw how much fun O seemed to be having with this game and thought the game would be more fun if I played it more like O? And then realized that the way O plays is actually much more advanced AND more difficult than it looks?

It does take a fine balance to not get yourself lynched...

iknowright? and everybody's a critic!

[Galzria]

until we needed him to be.

Exactly..

That's irrelevant to my point though that a town J plays VERY differently than the J here has. I'm not condemning him, but I don't understand why he would make the change to crazy, when he saw exactly how well it worked for others first hand.

[O]

until we needed him to be.

Exactly..

That's irrelevant to my point though that a town J plays VERY differently than the J here has. I'm not condemning him, but I don't understand why he would make the change to crazy, when he saw exactly how well it worked for others first hand.

Well... it worked well for TINAS and me in MI.

[jotheonah]

Blerg. It's frustrating and ironic that the weight around my neck THIS GAME is how supposedly good I was LAST GAME even though last game my team LOST HORRIBLY.

[jotheonah]

And to add to the irony train is the fact that the people who want to crucify me now for not being as townie as I was in that game are the very people who, as mafia, manipulated that townieness and won AS MAFIA.

[O]

Blerg. It's frustrating and ironic that the weight around my neck THIS GAME is how supposedly good I was LAST GAME even though last game my team LOST HORRIBLY.

Galzria just wants to think MII town was at all good because then it stands to follow that he as mafia had to be even more pro 

[Galzria]

Blerg. It's frustrating and ironic that the weight around my neck THIS GAME is how supposedly good I was LAST GAME even though last game my team LOST HORRIBLY.

Galzria just wants to think MII town was at all good because then it stands to follow that he as mafia had to be even more pro 

No, I wasn't BAD, but I have no clue why people there believed me. I got WAY more lucky than I was good. I just said things, and people went "oh, ok".

Hell, Axxle1 died for the same reason! I should just not talk when I play town. I have a tenancy to get people killed, and I'm not entirely sure why.

[jotheonah]

Ok, metamafia arguments aside there is a BIG DANGEROUS FALLACY attached to my wagon.

It is the fallacy of weird=scummy. It is a fallacy that loses mafia games.

So Robz, Dsell, and Galzria, ye who are so focused on my "weird," "bad," and "not like Mafia II" play, please be so kind as to explain why that play equates in any way to good mafia play.

[Axxle]

After reading through Galz's posts a lot I have a better feeling about him.  He definitely seemed to be scumhunting various people constantly.

... and now after reading this:

No, I wasn't BAD, but I have no clue why people there believed me. I got WAY more lucky than I was good. I just said things, and people went "oh, ok".

Hell, Axxle1 died for the same reason! I should just not talk when I play town. I have a tenancy to get people killed, and I'm not entirely sure why.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned as to why the mafia didn't kill Galz.

[Galzria]

Ok, metamafia arguments aside there is a BIG DANGEROUS FALLACY attached to my wagon.

It is the fallacy of weird=scummy. It is a fallacy that loses mafia games.

So Robz, Dsell, and Galzria, ye who are so focused on my "weird," "bad," and "not like Mafia II" play, please be so kind as to explain why that play equates in any way to good mafia play.

Good Mafia play is play that does not get you lynched. Were you lynched?

[O]

Ok, metamafia arguments aside there is a BIG DANGEROUS FALLACY attached to my wagon.

It is the fallacy of weird=scummy. It is a fallacy that loses mafia games.

So Robz, Dsell, and Galzria, ye who are so focused on my "weird," "bad," and "not like Mafia II" play, please be so kind as to explain why that play equates in any way to good mafia play.

Good Mafia play is play that does not get you lynched. Were you lynched?

Holy F**k!!! Everyone except Axxle1 is mafia!!!

[jotheonah]

WEAK argument. I was not lynched. But, as I've said before, it was really through no fault of my own. Short of actually self-voting, I did just about everything I could TO get lynched. So arguing based on the oUTCOME of my actions rather than my actions themselves? You can do better.

[jotheonah]

Edit: O's response was SO MUCH BETTER. This is why I'll never be the master.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.

You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.

I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being.  Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle.  You didn't.  You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference?  Did you know they were both town?  Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

Sigh back.  I did think about it.  If I were to just say "I investigated", then I'm either cop, or the one-shot cop. If I don't specify, there is a bigger target on my head as cop than a guy who's already used up his  special power.  IF there is a doctor, and he thinks I'm the cop, then he has to protect me every night (at least that's what I'd do, if I was the doc).  This way he knows he doesn't have to waste that protection.

[O]

WEAK argument. I was not lynched. But, as I've said before, it was really through no fault of my own. Short of actually self-voting, I did just about everything I could TO get lynched. So arguing based on the oUTCOME of my actions rather than my actions themselves? You can do better.

Damnit J, you make it hard to defend you

[Captain_Frisk]

The weird thing about today (in-game) is that there are really no drums, no bandwagons, no evidence of a mafia train at all, despite that there are obviously many scum about. I really don't know what to do about it.

How many town are we at anyway? Did the double kill put us at an even number? How close to LyLo? Is No Lynch a thing?

I think we're all slightly puzzled.  We can't be throwing votes around like we could when we were sitting with 15 people.  I'm just rejoicing at being alive on day 2, which is a fresh experience for me.

As for your second question, I'm sure you can do the math as well as I, but for the benefit of those who are unsure:

- We have 12 people alive.  3 town are dead.  We were guaranteed at least 11 town, and at least 2 scum, so we have between 8 and 10 town left.
- Assuming worst case possible (8 town, 4 mafia).  We can lose today if we
-- mislynch
-- had 2 town with night kill powers who kill town
-- fail to protect mafia night kill

This feels unlikely to me - particularly the double vigalante failure.  If we have a serial killer, then we have no more than 3 mafia, so even if we kill 4 people today (lynch, serial kill, mafia kill, batman failure), it would be 4 vs 3 vs 1, and we're still alive (barely)

The no lynch scenarios get complicated depending on whether you assume serial killer or vig, and whether or not any mafia die, but no matter what, we aren't losing today.  The uncertainty around SK vs. Vig makes me lean toward not racking up too many nights.

Enough information:

I want to provide some analysis, but I'm just not sure I have any.   The best I have is: "everyone who voted for Axxle looks slightly scummy for one reason or another", and that isn't particularly helpful.

I don't really like Robz's subtle push to assume that all of the mafia voted for Axxle.  I also don't buy the Glooble theory that we managed to lynch Axxle1 with no mafia assistance.

Where is TINAS with his cop claim to break open the day?

[jotheonah]

Well, I feel much better knowing that my lynching, should it be my destiny, will not lead to a de facto mafia victory.

[Galzria]

@Axxle2

My suspicion is because, well, I'm good at getting people killed. As long as I don't target them, what do they care?

Either that, or they felt as vote #1 on Axxle1, I would be an easy target D2.

The problem with the "why didn't they kill X" argument, is that it can be made strongly against anybody alive, with good reasons to back up the question. But as Town, I really can't give a satisfactory answer, because I don't know.

The only people who could answer that question about themselves with any certainty are the Mafia themselves.

Moreover, what's known is that they DID target 1 of 2 people. It seems to me that it would be easier to figure out the motivation AGAINST 1 of 2 people, than the motivation as to why they DIDN'T target 12 other individuals.

[Axxle]

The problem with the "why didn't they kill X" argument, is that it can be made strongly against anybody alive, with good reasons to back up the question. But as Town, I really can't give a satisfactory answer, because I don't know.

The only people who could answer that question about themselves with any certainty are the Mafia themselves.

Dammit Galz.  Don't say that until after the mafia have responded.

[jotheonah]

Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.

Vote: Robz888

[O]

The problem with the "why didn't they kill X" argument, is that it can be made strongly against anybody alive, with good reasons to back up the question. But as Town, I really can't give a satisfactory answer, because I don't know.

The only people who could answer that question about themselves with any certainty are the Mafia themselves.

Dammit Galz.  Don't say that until after the mafia have responded.

I disagree: I know for a fact they didn't kill me because I'm too fun to have around.

[Galzria]

Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.

Vote: Robz888

+1 for the song

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm going to bed.  I don't want to use up all my cute posts.  Have fun everyone.

[Voltgloss]

And jotheonah breaks the Day 2 voting ice!

(Apologies in advance for reduced flavor - I have a very busy couple of workdays coming up.  Will ramp back up the flavor as soon as possible.)

Vote Count 2-1

Robz888 (1): jotheonah

Not voting {11}: Galzria, Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, O, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.

Vote: Robz888

Terrific.

A couple thoughts. First, uh, why does everyone trust Galzria? Seriously, like 3 people just said, "Oh Galzria, that friendly ol' mislynchin' sonofagun. What a townie."

I continue to concur with much of Galzria's analysis while emphatically disagreeing with his ultimate vote. He's not my top suspect, but let's please stop acquitting him automatically. (Note: I have to do that too! I acquit him far too often. This is a do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do thing).

Now I'm saying, again, that Jo is still the most likely mafia. He's right the weird play=mafia, at least in theory. In execution, he looks to me like he was making an effort to be weird, and oh look, weird people aren't ever the mafia. One of these days, a mafia member is going to act totally crazy and expect to always be acquitted because he's just being crazy. I mean, it kind of works for O already.

Gloobe and Grujah continue to give me bad vibes whenever they speak. So these are the three people I am focused on.

[O]

I find the differences in opinion/play of Axxle1, a confirmed vanilla townie, and Axxle2, interesting.

Or is that analysis frowned upon given the situation?

[Axxle]

It's fine.  Also, axxle1 got lynched and axxle2 is trying to learn from that mistake.

[Axxle]

Robz's post is truth.

[Axxle]

I am at a bar

[Galzria]

Robz, as usual, you and I agree on a lot. I don't like being acquitted so easily and in such an off-hand manner any more than you do. It's just uncanny and unsettling.   I just don't know how to change it.

I voted for Axxle1. I more or less drove the wagon. It's rather disconcerting (and perhaps disheartening) that our community would just set me aside, assured in my innocence. They should be considering EVERYBODY, and not writing anybody off.

[Robz888]

Robz, as usual, you and I agree on a lot. I don't like being acquitted so easily and in such an off-hand manner any more than you do. It's just uncanny and unsettling.   I just don't know how to change it.

I voted for Axxle1. I more or less drove the wagon. It's rather disconcerting (and perhaps disheartening) that our community would just set me aside, assured in my innocence. They should be considering EVERYBODY, and not writing anybody off.

Thank you! Yes! Exactly. Now stop doing whatever you're doing. Stop causing others to let you off the hook! People, Galzria isn't letting himself off the hook. The rest of you are!

[O]

Also, axxle1 got lynched and axxle2 is trying to learn from that mistake.

FOS at Axxle for making an argument in mafia that for once is compelling enough to convince me. 

[Dsell]

(Sorry about the long post guys)

So I wanted to analyze Axxle1's lynch, but I hoped to go for a different angle. In general, a lot of suspicion is put on the final voters in a mislynch, especially the hammerer. The first couple voters who "drove the wagon" also get a lot of flack. This makes the middle of the pack look like a nice place to hide. So I went back and looked at what drove Captain_Frisk, SwitchedfromStarcraft, and popsofctown to give Axxle1 their vote.

Captain Frisk: Here is his post where he votes for Axxle.

I'm watching Axxle too, and have requested (in my post at #807) player opinions on Galzria's post at #760.  I think Galz may be on to something, but apparently no one else does, though echoed my request in your post at 854. It seems small, but small is all I've got, because the things that are BIG indicators (Jo's comment about self voting) inklings are all I have to go on at my skill level.

Are you trying to antagonize RobZ again? (emphasis mine in quote).

That said I am also Axxle suspicious.  In the interest of seeing where this goes:

Unvote

Vote: Axxle

He is allegedly in favor of quick voting J and getting on with life per #754.  I've just gone through his posts - and I see... almost nothing.  I don't even really agree with Galzria that #754 puts him strongly out of line with his previous request for game meat vs. mafia theory.  Apart from a helpful article, his posts are mostly 1-2 liners offering little in the way of things to call him out on.

Similar to DSell accusations, he's gotten involved with the Pops and J bandwagons - even voting twice on J for emphasis.

Then he damn near immediately backed off this morning when it started to look like J wasn't going to be lynched, and we were starting to take a serious look at how that divided the town.  If he felt strongly enough to double vote for J, why back off so suddenly?  If DSell is making him nervous - why not vote for him?

So he votes in the interest of seeing where things go. He also seems somewhat suspicious of Axxle, but very recently before this vote he had stated, "Axxle did post a n00b friendly article in the beginning of this game.  I don't know if I agree that he's been trying to control the game and mold our behavior to his standards." This post also indicates that SFS had been getting somewhat suspicious.

I think this is interesting because it looks like a scumhunting, "let's see who jumps on this bandwagon" type of vote, not a "oh this guy is definitely mafia we gotta lynch him" vote. He lists things that make Axxle1 suspicious but admits he doesn't have much on him. However, he never unvoted. It looks like he either began to believe his own case or he was convinced by someone else (potentially mafia).

SFS: I won't quote the post where he votes because it is just a simple agreement with C_F's post. Problem is, C_F's post was admittedly thin on damning evidence.

To me, it seems like C_F thought he had enough evidence for a vote but perhaps not a lynching vote (correct me if I'm wrong here) at that point. I'm not sure if SFS gets that, he seems to just agree and be ready to pull the trigger. But with very little explanation given for the vote, it's hard to tell. Unremarkable vote in the very middle of the pack. Important to note that SFS's suspicion (and C_F's) arose only after Galz's post condemning Axxle1.

popsofctown: Man, these three votes were rapid-fire. All on page 36. Here is pops' vote post, short as usual.

Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.

This vote is serious. 

Vote: Axxle

His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.

So...ok I guess I just don't get this. Posts like this are what left me really unconvinced about the Axxle wagon. Axxle posted some articles early to help the noobs. He stifled humor. I definitely didn't like these things but it seemed like he mostly just wanted to get down to business but was a little gruff about it. I personally didn't read the articles because I didn't want to be told how to play the game. But POPS has been the main person who's looked like a referee to me. I don't need to rehash the things he said day 1 that really bothered me. But I didn't see that from Axxle so much, certainly not enough to make me really suspicious.

But ok, enough of my opinion. Pops cites this reason for his vote but does not explain it or offer any evidence of it. Furthermore, even if it's true and there's a lot of evidence, why does that mean he's mafia? Pops, was it simply a style of play that bothered you? Because I would argue that that is not a good reason to board a bandwagon that's really going. You said yourself, "Lynch mafia, not scum." How does playing like a referee make Axxle1 mafia (well obviously it doesn't) and would you please explain your meaning or evidence from that statement?

I don't know if any of these guys are mafia, but I don't want them to get off easy because they are in spots where we don't usually search for scum. This does make me a bit more suspicious of pops and C_F, though I believe SFS' roleclaim from earlier. I'd love thoughts on my analysis from others too.

[Dsell]

Oh and with that post I DEFINITELY do not mean to exonerate any of the other Axxle voters. But it seems like most of them have already had some analysis done and I wanted to give a new perspective.

[jotheonah]

Ok, you know what? Today needs a little less conversation, a little more action please.

Vote: Robz888

Terrific.

A couple thoughts. First, uh, why does everyone trust Galzria? Seriously, like 3 people just said, "Oh Galzria, that friendly ol' mislynchin' sonofagun. What a townie."

I continue to concur with much of Galzria's analysis while emphatically disagreeing with his ultimate vote. He's not my top suspect, but let's please stop acquitting him automatically. (Note: I have to do that too! I acquit him far too often. This is a do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do thing).

Now I'm saying, again, that Jo is still the most likely mafia. He's right the weird play=mafia, at least in theory. In execution, he looks to me like he was making an effort to be weird, and oh look, weird people aren't ever the mafia. One of these days, a mafia member is going to act totally crazy and expect to always be acquitted because he's just being crazy. I mean, it kind of works for O already.

Gloobe and Grujah continue to give me bad vibes whenever they speak. So these are the three people I am focused on.

I need more than that, bud. I need to know what specific weird actions of mine are actually something the mafia would do and why.  What you just said up there "OMG he's acting weird so he won't get lynched" is just as bad as saying "OMG he's acting town so he won't get lynched" about a pro-town player. Also, Galzria just used the same weak argument, so no points for originality even.

[Glooble]

So let's say Galz is Mafia. He leads a bandwagon on a townie who, prior to his initial post, did not have any more suspicion on him than anyone else. He is immediately joined by the guy who everyone thinks is mafia. This does not seem like the kind of strong scum play I've come to expect from scumGalz. On the other hand, it worked. Six more people voted for Axxle, at least some of them were town.

Galz is an advanced player, it's possible he figured stay in the middle of the pack, don't do anything to arouse suspicion, help out an existing bandwagon when one comes up was such an obvious mafia strategy that the best way to avoid suspicion was to come out boldly, guns blazing for someone and apologize when that someone came up town. It's also possible that he didn't think anyone would join him on the Axxle bandwagon and just wanted his vote to be somewhere innocuous when jo flipped town. So you're right, we shouldn't exonerate Galz. There are plenty of scenarios in which he could still be scum.

jo: voting for Robz for continuing to attack you looks scummy. Care to make a case against him that doesn't rely on the knowledge that you are innocent, since you are the only one who possesses that knowledge?

[Glooble]

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

This entire post makes me extremely suspicious of you.  SFS's claim would be even worse as a mafia play than it was as town. 

I read this as "oh crap, lots of people are talking about me, oh crap oh crap oh crap oh crap"

[jotheonah]

I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?

[jotheonah]

So let's say Galz is Mafia. He leads a bandwagon on a townie who, prior to his initial post, did not have any more suspicion on him than anyone else. He is immediately joined by the guy who everyone thinks is mafia. This does not seem like the kind of strong scum play I've come to expect from scumGalz. On the other hand, it worked. Six more people voted for Axxle, at least some of them were town.

Galz is an advanced player, it's possible he figured stay in the middle of the pack, don't do anything to arouse suspicion, help out an existing bandwagon when one comes up was such an obvious mafia strategy that the best way to avoid suspicion was to come out boldly, guns blazing for someone and apologize when that someone came up town. It's also possible that he didn't think anyone would join him on the Axxle bandwagon and just wanted his vote to be somewhere innocuous when jo flipped town. So you're right, we shouldn't exonerate Galz. There are plenty of scenarios in which he could still be scum.

jo: voting for Robz for continuing to attack you looks scummy. Care to make a case against him that doesn't rely on the knowledge that you are innocent, since you are the only one who possesses that knowledge?

No, I'll pass for now.

You don't have to know I'm innocent, it just helps.  I have now seen (confirmed) town Robz and (confirmed) scum Robz play. Guess which one digs in to a target and doesn't let go, regardless of evidence and shifts in public opinion?

[Robz888]

I have now seen (confirmed) town Robz and (confirmed) scum Robz play. Guess which one digs in to a target and doesn't let go, regardless of evidence and shifts in public opinion?

Both.

[Galzria]

@Glooble

Well, it's a start. It's essentially the case I laid out against myself in post #1223. Thing is, I'm town this game. But it doesn't do anybody any favors to just assume that. Especially with my history of being Mafia while appearing town. If I can pull it off, so can others. So never disregard anybody.

@Jotheonah

Your defense is weak at best. It IS good Mafia play because acting the way you did has a history of flipping up town. And it's that history that caused your bandwagon to die. If you are Mafia or not this game, I don't know. But the fact is the longer we allow that style of play to be acceptable, and if we start writing it off as "bad-town" play, the easier it's going to be for the Mafia to hide in such tactics.

You played a strong town game in M-II. The only non-Mafia that really thought you might be scum was Voltgloss. And by the end, even he was hesitant. You watched Morgrim get lynched for crazy. You watched me get lynched for crazy. You watched TINAS and Robz almost get lynched for crazy. Why in the world would you come in here playing the crazy game? As Mafia, OR Town?

Like I said. I'm not sure. But I've seen you play in two other games, and both times thought your overall plan was much more advanced than you would APPEAR to be playing now. So I feel forced to set appearances aside, and instead look at the more obscure, strategical reasons for your actions. I don't buy what's on the surface.

[Glooble]

Oh, one more thing about SFS - if there is a counterclaim, and he is Mafia, he's just exposed the town's cop. That's kind of win-win right there.

[Captain_Frisk]

I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?

I agree that it's a weak roleclaim, but to come out and claim when most people seem to have written you off as a crazy townie seems like calling down unnecessary attention on yourself.

I'm sticking with Hanlon's Razor on my read here.  As evidence, I present today's isotropic leaderboard:

SwitchedFromStarcraft
15.610 ± 9.758   
983 games played

(No offense intended SFS)

[Glooble]

So if he is town, how is his premature roleclaim any better than jos? I contend "Tables is town" gives us basically no help in our scumhunting given that 1. we must trust that SFS is town and telling the truth, and 2. Witch and Chancellor would both turn up town.

This still looks like inexplicably poor town play and risky but potentially extremely profitable scum play. Especially given the possibility that there are multiples of any given role.

[jotheonah]

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.

[Captain_Frisk]

This still looks like inexplicably poor town play and risky but potentially extremely profitable scum play. Especially given the possibility that there are multiples of any given role.

It doesn't seem to me that the mafia need to make any risky plays at this point.  3 town are dead.

[Galzria]

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.

Is that your D2 strategy? Attack anybody who suspects you? You haven't made one valid argument today, and appear to be actively trying to (unsuccessfuly) play like O or Pops today.

It isn't all that "wierd" to point out that people should not acquit me so easily. If they do for me, they will for others, and that allows opportunities for Mafia to hide.

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

If people want to join me, great. If not, well that's ok too. I can't see anybody reading more scummy to me as the day wears on however.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.

[jotheonah]

Guys, Robz and Galz are acting weird! They're putting a lot of energy into pointing at each other and saying "he's town, but you should be suspecting him anyway." They're like a perverse Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum. What's the game?

I mean, even if you are both town, why is it productive to point the rest of the town at someone you think is town and tell them to consider that they could be scum?

Like, Robz, if you think Galz is mafia, then say Galz is mafia and make a case. And if you think he's town, then leave him alone. But seriously pick one.

Is that your D2 strategy? Attack anybody who suspects you? You haven't made one valid argument today, and appear to be actively trying to (unsuccessfuly) play like O or Pops today.

It isn't all that "wierd" to point out that people should not acquit me so easily. If they do for me, they will for others, and that allows opportunities for Mafia to hide.

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

If people want to join me, great. If not, well that's ok too. I can't see anybody reading more scummy to me as the day wears on however.

Sorry, did I attack you in that post Galz? I said you were acting weird, which I myself have said does not mean scummy.

It's Day 2 and you're town and everybody trusts you. That's a GOOD thing. If you tell them to stop trusting you and they listen, that's a bad thing. If you tell them to stop trusting you and they don't listen, but instead say "Oh what a helpful townie he is, telling us not to trust him" then, good for you, I guess. I just don't see the point. There's been so much talk today and so little of it has been useful. It feels like Day 1 again.

You know what, if Robz and Galz are really serious about how we should be more suspicious of Galzria, let's give the people what they want.

Vote: Galzria

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

No unvoting?

[jotheonah]

I think the unvote is implied. Unless I can vote for both Robz and Galz at the same time.

[Glooble]

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.

What has been erratic about my Day 2 play? Day one everyone was accusing me of rehashing other people's arguments and not contributing any of my own. So I came into day 2 resolved to be more helpful, in coming up with things other people might have missed or glossed over. Tell me why this makes me scummy?

Jo, I think you're starting to lose your cool a little and its not looking good for you.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think the unvote is implied. Unless I can vote for both Robz and Galz at the same time.

Your immediate vote on Galz after accusation makes me so sad I didn't vote with Galz.

[jotheonah]

You're right, Gloob, but I just don't care.

I am serious though. Let's put 4 or 5 votes on Galz and see what he has to say about how suspicious we ought to be of him. Let's call the bluff.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your play has become more and more erratic, with no clear vision. I didn't come into today planning on voting for you, but every time you speak, you're appearing more and more scummy.

Vote: Jotheonah

So tempted, but your statement directed @ J is exactly how I feel about Glooble.

Vote: Glooble.

What has been erratic about my Day 2 play? Day one everyone was accusing me of rehashing other people's arguments and not contributing any of my own. So I came into day 2 resolved to be more helpful, in coming up with things other people might have missed or glossed over. Tell me why this makes me scummy?

Sorry - its more of the second sentence.  As you continued to hammer an argument against SFS that I couldn't rationalize, I found my FOS raising higher and higher... and it turns out it was pointing at you.

[Galzria]

@J

Voting for me does not show suspicion. Making logical, well reasoned arguments does. But that's something you've been incapable of this game... Or at least, especially D2.

[Glooble]

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-2

jotheonah (1): Galzria
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah

Not voting {9}: Dsell, Robz888, O, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

@Galz

Ok, you want the convincing argument for my radical change in playstyle? Here it is. During MII I was unemployed. I had lots and lots of time to analyze, quote, repost, be rational. Since this game started I've been working 10 to 6. I have time to stop in here at work and post a pithy response or two, but I don't have time for in-depth analysis. And when I get home at the end of the day, I'm just tired.

So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.

See past your tunnel vision for a second, and believe in my towniness. Or don't.

[Galzria]

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.

Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.

[jotheonah]

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.

Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.

I feel the same way about you. But I'm feeling better and better about this 1v1.

[Galzria]

Well, I'm going to hold off on saying anything more about SFS until 1. he defends himself and 2. some other town have had a chance to weigh in (especially pops, who is oh-so-sure SFS is town.) Jo is starting to look worse to me. For that matter, so is Galz. No vote yet. I'm going to work. WIll be back on tonight around 9 most likely.

Ah, you're probably right. I'm letting J draw me into a pointless argument, and I know better. My vote stands for now, because of the reasons laid out, but responding to his posts at this point is rather, well, pointless.

I feel the same way about you. But I'm feeling better and better about this 1v1.

There is no 1v1. I posted a case and vote against you. You responded with an "oh YEAH! Well I'll vote for YOU!"

I'd feel better if your argument wasn't 1st grade material.

Glooble at least made an attempt at a case against me. One that, were I Mafia, would hold water.

Still, people on my radar include: O/Pops (I believe 1 is Mafia), Robz/Jotheonah (same as first set), and then the rest... Undecided.

[popsofctown]

@joth:  I'd lynch Green Opal/Axxle2, probably.

O : Why didn't you do more to defend Axxle if you knew he was town?  You seem to want all of the credit but none of the blame.  You had a town read on him, but sat on your hands and camped a vote on a player that wasn't much of a cantidate for the days lynch, and you neither supported a popular wagon nor even chimed in substantively.  This seems very suspicious to me, though players who know you might chime in and say to give you a pass.

I'll reiterate, doc should be on SFS rather than Tables tonight.  I actually recommend acting that way with an 80% chance or so, there's virtue in being unpredictable.  Jailkeep,60/40

*Golf claps*.... Popsofctown, master of the Freudian trap? Your question confuses me. I didn't defend Axxle that strongly because I didn't know he was town, only suspected? It wasn't like TINAS in M1, where I got a major read due to Tina's playstyle. It was just very clearly a straw-case against him because Axxle really hadn't played very differently than anyone else yet we claimed he was acting crazily. And like I've said, this SFS/Captain Frisk thing, + your ridiculousness had me well occupied with bandwagons/bandwagons I wanted to start that were worth pursuing.

You're trying to give me a FoS for not voting for a VT, just saying.

I'm FoSing you for failing to defend a VT.
You're still not accounting for how useless you're being.  Since for some reason I'm always juxtaposed against you, here's this : I took a strong stance on the inevitable choice between Axxle and Jothenoah day 1, favoring Axxle.  You didn't.  You parked your vote and did nothing.
How could you have no preference?  Did you know they were both town?  Because that's what's connecting the dots for me right now.

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

Sigh back.  I did think about it.  If I were to just say "I investigated", then I'm either cop, or the one-shot cop. If I don't specify, there is a bigger target on my head as cop than a guy who's already used up his  special power.  IF there is a doctor, and he thinks I'm the cop, then he has to protect me every night (at least that's what I'd do, if I was the doc).  This way he knows he doesn't have to waste that protection.

It's not a waste if you cause the doc protect to collide with the mafia kill, something that only has a 1/8 chance or somesuch of happening in a vacuum.

[popsofctown]

Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell.  So.

[popsofctown]

I already explained why SFS is obvtown. The claim today makes him more stupidly obvtown.  If he is scum, I'll vote randomly the entirely randomly next game because that's how off rhythm I must be if that's the case.

Captain_Frisk seems to me the most suspicious member of the Axxle1 wagon for now.  I found Dsell's case compelling and he's been rather IIoA today, making posts saying, "oh, the mafia don't need to take risks today" and other narration I don't remember.  And his vote on Glooble is quite strange, in a bad way.  He makes no effort to bring others to also lynch Glooble, and I can't follow his reasoning for doing so.

[popsofctown]

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

[Robz888]

I agree that SFS is obvtown.

[Captain_Frisk]

I already explained why SFS is obvtown. The claim today makes him more stupidly obvtown.  If he is scum, I'll vote randomly the entirely randomly next game because that's how off rhythm I must be if that's the case.

Captain_Frisk seems to me the most suspicious member of the Axxle1 wagon for now.  I found Dsell's case compelling and he's been rather IIoA today, making posts saying, "oh, the mafia don't need to take risks today" and other narration I don't remember.  And his vote on Glooble is quite strange, in a bad way.  He makes no effort to bring others to also lynch Glooble, and I can't follow his reasoning for doing so.

If we all agree that SFS is town, then why is my argument against Glooble trying to ring the SFS is mafia gong not acceptable?

[Robz888]

I already explained why SFS is obvtown. The claim today makes him more stupidly obvtown.  If he is scum, I'll vote randomly the entirely randomly next game because that's how off rhythm I must be if that's the case.

Captain_Frisk seems to me the most suspicious member of the Axxle1 wagon for now.  I found Dsell's case compelling and he's been rather IIoA today, making posts saying, "oh, the mafia don't need to take risks today" and other narration I don't remember.  And his vote on Glooble is quite strange, in a bad way.  He makes no effort to bring others to also lynch Glooble, and I can't follow his reasoning for doing so.

If we all agree that SFS is town, then why is my argument against Glooble trying to ring the SFS is mafia gong not acceptable?

It was acceptable to me. I agreed with Pops on SFS, not on you.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

Oh - and at the risk of more IIoA, for those who are having a tough time following pops:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Commonly_Used_Abbreviations

PoE = Process of Elimination
IIoA = Information Instead of Analysis.

I figured if I had to look it up, then others probably did too.

[Dsell]

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

@Glooble & C_F & pops

I ended up thinking at the end of day 1 that SFS probably was indeed just new to mafia and was playing how a new town might play. With his roleclaim today it really confirmed it in my mind. I don't see how that makes any sense for a mafia to do that, especially with his mafia partner/s' approval. I guess he could be a witch but it seems impossible to make any real case about that right now.

Glooble, you obviously see things differently. I think you are assuming that SFS is thinking about the game as much/the same way as you. I don't know how much you've played this game before but we're not all putting the same level of thought and strategy into it. So I just really, really disagree with your point. I mean, it's possible, but this is on the same level as SFS' day 1 conspiracy theories for me. I just dooon't see it being a thing. I think it's ridiculous that this all looks scummy to you when the MOST obvious scenario is that he just wanted to be helpful and use his PR before he died. If he was playing the game the same way as you or some others, I would be suspicious too, but SFS clearly has a different perspective on the game.

OTOH, I'm surprised to see C_F really jump on that analysis as suspicious. We are all trying to offer a new perspective: I did last night, and even SFS got points in my book when he put forth the (admittedly ridiculous) idea of an Axxle-C_F mafia pairing. That's the kind of analysis I think we should be rewarding, not seeing as suspicious. I think we can all tell what might be true and what's farfetched, or we should be able to as a town. I completely disagree with Glooble's point but I did not see it as a deflection of attention.

So today I'm still thinking jo is really suspicious, and C_F to some extent too. But jo, oh jo. How is counterclaiming on Galz an effort at good town play? Have you resigned yourself to erratic play? You are creating this terrible lesser-of-two-evils scenario for the town where you are either a really bad townie who's admitting your flaws with your words but doing nothing to change your anti-town actions OR you are a mafia who's been caught in his game and is scrambling/trying to keep up the ruse.

This...

So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.

...and other quotes make me really really wary. I just don't think you're a bad player! We all have to work with limited time frames, it doesn't mean we have nothing good to say. Look at Tables, you've posted ten times as much as him, and he still managed to have some good analysis day 1. You asked me a couple days ago (maybe yesterday?) what you could do to convince me and others that you're town. NOT THIS.

Vote: jotheonah

I am open to voting for others, though, and may move my vote around some.

[Galzria]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

[popsofctown]

pairings without flips are dumb.

[jotheonah]

If I'm such a good player, why would I play this badly as scum? No, Dsell, the read you are struggling with is that I am now a townie who just doesn't care.

And I didn't vote for Galzria because he voted for me. I voted for Galzria because he and Robz said we should be suspecting him more.  That bothered me. It bothered me because a townie who's rocking a good town read from everyone doesn't need to look a gift horse in the mouth, and neither does a mafia who's rocking a good town read.  The only way it makes any sense to me is if Galz is mafia saying "You guys should really be suspecting me" because that sounds like SUCH a town thing to say.

Galzria suspects people who are overhelpful to town (usually). Like Axxle1 yesterday, for instance. But now he's suspecting someone (me) who's obvious and useless to town. That's weird Galzria behavior. I heard Galz saying we should suspect him (and Robz saying that but not actually doing it, which, no matter how much you disclaim, is sketchy) and I got really curious how Galzria would react if we actually did suspect him.  You know, for his vote on not-so-scummy Axxle1, for instance.

Also, I really trust Galzria's reads from past experience with him. And I have to assume his gross misread of me here is intentional.  So I really believe Galz could be scum, playing a very similar game to MII. I don't expect people to follow me (though it would be nice) but if they lynch me instead, maybe they'll listen to me tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

pairings without flips are dumb.

I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.

[Dsell]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

pairings without flips are dumb.

I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.

Same here...are you being serious, Galz?

Also, jo, that was not a bad defense and made a pretty decent case against Galz all at once. Why can't you post more like that this game? I am going to leave my vote because one good post does not negate a mountain of scumminess (after all I know you're capable of making posts like that!), but posts like that are so, so much more helpful.

[Axxle]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

pairings without flips are dumb.

I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.

I took it for grasping at straws.

[Captain_Frisk]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

pairings without flips are dumb.

I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.

I took it for grasping at straws.

As in - Galzria was under so much pressure from J's relentless - super convincing - assault that he started concocting mafia triplets to throw us on the case?

[Galzria]

I was completely serious.

No.

Really.

[Dsell]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

pairings without flips are dumb.

I took this to be sarcasm, but perhaps I misread.

I took it for grasping at straws.

As in - Galzria was under so much pressure from J's relentless - super convincing - assault that he started concocting mafia triplets to throw us on the case?

I lol'd. I really, really did.

[Galzria]

Please reread my post history, along with people I've suspected before asking questions that need no answers.

[Axxle]

Please reread my post history, along with people I've suspected before asking questions that need no answers.

Every question needs an answer.  Not everyone can reread everything all the time.  So it was sarcasm?

[O]

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).

Vote: Captain Frisk

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-3

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O

Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[popsofctown]

Frenemigo unity explodes universe.

[Tables]

There's a few suspicions I've got floating around right now. Firstly, I agree with DSell's analysis of the three mid-bandwagoners, and especially, it's made me a lot more suspicious of Pops. My day 1 read of him wasn't good - it was pretty neutral IIRC. But today I've been getting more and more suspicious. I won't regurgitate the reasons DSell gave, but just know I agree with them, and Pops general lack of good justification of his vote now has me worried.

I'm going to try and do this objectively but obviously, I'm slightly biased, so: Pops, why should SFS be more likely protected than me? If his claim is true, then he has no role remaining. He's no better to protect than Joth would be. In fact, his death would confirm to everyone the result he got on me - which while it can't be trusted 100%, is certainly a useful piece of information later on. If his claim is false, considering the way he's played, it seems pretty likely he's mafia rather than lying town, and in that case he can very easily fabricate a claim on any townie, and be correct. But more to the point, SFS hasn't done really anything to convince me he's town, you seem 'convinced' he is yet there's really no evidence of that, and given his claim, objectively, unless there's some very suspicious thing I've done that nobody has pointed out yet, aren't I the one whose a) More likely town and b) Certain to have a role at least as good as his (VT is the worst role, and I at least have that) if I'm town?

Overall, I'm just not happy with Pops' play at the moment. His assertions, such as that SFS is 'obvtown' when it's certainly FAR from obvious feel a lot like he's trying to ram what he believes down our throats without us arguing it. And that's bad. Especially when I don't feel he has a redeeming day 1 to look back at, and I feel reasonably comfortable doing this right now.

Vote: Pops

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

I want to adress this post because of a number of holes it has. Firstly Glooble claimed this was new analysis in post 1316, when if you look back over pages 48-52, you'll see just about every argument Glooble made here was already made, except the SFS-Me pairing. I pointed out it in no way clears SFS, someone (Galz?) pointed out there are better targets for an investigation, LOTS of people have explained about sharing it immediately. So, another rehash of old arguments into something that can't really be called a new one. Not suspicious itself, but not overly helpful. Secondly Switched had already adressed most of the arguments in post 1239 - which Glooble conveniently ignores in his analysis (as this is post 1,300, almost 18 hours later, the 'not seen the post' argument can't really be applied). I mean, he kinda hinted at having seen this post in the penultimate line, but, well what more would you expect? Thirdly, except Pops, I don't think trust of SFS increased much at all. And finally, there's no risk of a counterclaim, as all roles can occur any number of times. Although I'm willing to chalk that up to forgetting the rule, since it is non standard.

In short, I have my two main suspects, and I'll let my vote show which I'm more certain about.

[Captain_Frisk]

We are all over the place today.

I don't to further confirm Galz's SFS/CF/Tables conspiracy, but I think I agree with most of what tables said.

We don't have any examples of pops' play to see if he generally plays like this, but based on the fact that he was comfortable modding Mafia I, I have to assume this isn't his first trip to the rodeo.

I don't like O's continued FOS @ me, particularly the link to SFS, which is so ridiculous that I don't know what to say.  I perceive O to be too good of a player to really come to that conclusion as town.

As for Glooble, I'm softening a bit.  I just went back and read his post history - with the mindset that he was 100% mafia... and all I read is bad reads.  (Assuming that theorel is scum kill, accusing SFS of being mafia).

The only thing that stood out to me was:

Ok, I've officially deliberated this for too long. I'm gonna go with my gut here.

VOTE: AXXLE

Right now I'm feeling 60 - to 70 percent sure he's mafia. Obviously, that's what I'm hoping is true. Even if he comes up town, though, I feel like that will give us a lot good information. Tables' early "I trust Axxle" post, his feud with Galz, his votes on the pops and j bandwagons, etc. If Axxle comes up town, Galz, pops, theorel, and myself will all need to be examined in a new light. I see this making for a much more productive day 2.

J has been acting so suspicious that if we lynch him we learn nothing. Everyone who voted for him has reasons that are hard to argue with.

Still, and I hate to sound like a broken record, I don't believe j is mafia. I don't think he would play scum in such a light-hearted, cavalier way. It doesn't match up with anything I know about him. It matches up pretty well with him telling the truth about transparency and not watching his words because he has nothing to hide.

@Insomniac: I'm trying to use more line breaks. How's this?

Emphasis mine.  I'm not sure why J and I were excluded from the list, as we were on the wagon at the time of this vote, and theorel had unvoted from Axxle 2 and a half days earlier.  If theorel was still alive and not town, this would make me suspicious.  Instead, it just looks like he wasn't thinking things through.

Bah... Unvote

[Grujah]

Jeez, all out of a sudden, 3 pages worth of content. Will try to sort through these things soon.

[popsofctown]

If my vote on C_F seems poorly justified, it's because I don't see any obvscum here and am just poking at the best I've got. 

Re: SFS - I tried explaining to you guys why SFS is obvtown, so I already appealed to logic.  So yes, now I am trying to ram SFS=innocent child down your throats by force.

I've made it so you guys have little (correct and rational) choice but to leave him be.  Either I'm town with more experience than everyone else combined (possibly.  It might be a close call I guess) who has a strong townread on SFS, or I'm scum pointing out an innocent player to try to get town cred.  That I'm scum trying to clear a scum teammate should be dismissed out of hand - it's never good play to strongly defend a teammate as scum, when you die, he dies too.  It would be WIFOM, but then it never is in practice because if you talk about another player's townie qualities extensively, his real relationship with you is going to poke through.  So it's simply never done, unless the plan is to keep both scums alive until the game ends.  And since I'm the most likely lynch of the day, that is not plausible.

Re: doc direction - I said that before SFS made it abundantly and transparently clear that he no longer has any cop shots.  I thought - perhaps "dreamed" is a better verb - that he would be sly enough to claim 1-shot when he was actually a full cop.  Now, yeah, you're a better protection target.  SFS is still inno child though.  Probably 70/30 Tables/SFS. 

I'm actually more sure that SFS is town than that Tables is town.  He could be godfather.

[popsofctown]

ugh C_F is seeming really reasonable bah, unvote (didn't read his last post till now)

[jotheonah]

Galzria, how do you suppose it happened that you misread Axxle so badly Day 1? You seemed quite sure he was scum.

[Galzria]

Galzria, how do you suppose it happened that you misread Axxle so badly Day 1? You seemed quite sure he was scum.

No, I was more sure than I was on anybody else, which was as good as I was going get. If you need to see the case I made again, it's in post #760. I don't feel my case was wrong, just the outcome.

[jotheonah]

That seems ... an odd statement. Rather like "I don't think my math was bad, I just think I got the wrong answer"

[Axxle]

It was more like: I put everything on black instead of Red 14

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-4

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables

Not voting {7}: Robz888, Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle, Captain_Frisk, popsofctown

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Glooble]

Went back and reread 1239. I'm less suspicious of SFS now, but still think clearing him out of hand is dumb. Pops's argument in 1353 does make sense to me, though, so I'll leave my conspiracy theory behind until something comes along that makes it seem more likely.

It might be a while before I have time to get on and post substantively. I'm likely going to be away from a computer for all of tomorrow (might have like an hour around 3 to read and catch up, but likely not.) Just thought I'd let you all know.

[popsofctown]

Not like Roullette.  It is like he's saying he went all in before the River with pocket Kings and a King because only one card off the River could make a straight possible - and it did.



I hate poker.  No offense SFS

[Galzria]

That seems ... an odd statement. Rather like "I don't think my math was bad, I just think I got the wrong answer"

At least I had a reason. You seen well and fine to forget your "anybody but me!" vote.

[Axxle]

Some thoughts:

I also think SFS is obv town.  He just plays differently than most would.  He's playing incredibly consistently and I always feel like he has the best intentions even if the outcome isn't helpful and even hurtful at times.  I think if he was mafia he'd give off more standard tells.  It would have been very easy for him to just lurk for example.

glooble still bothers me for some reason.

This J/Galz exchange reminds me a bit too much of the Axxle1/Galz exchange.

Looking back through the archives, this jumps out at me:

[Theorel] 1) Misrepresented Robz and 2) covered himself in his vote for Axxle

Alright, I reviewed Axxle's posts.  I'm no more confident than before, but no less suspicious.  Axxle played straight-faced right to the end of MI...and he was obviously mafia with no way out.  I don't really expect anything different from him this time.  I think this is a town-wagon, regardless of Axxle's role which makes me feel way better about the vote than I would otherwise.  The discussion in here has already pretty much died.  It feels like people are just waiting for Axxle to drop.  I'm really glad Axxle weighed in before his death, I'm glad Tables and Grujah both said something.  I guess this is where I pull the trigger...feels weird.

Vote: Axxle

Good night everybody.  Hope to see you in the morning.

I'm actually more curious about O's lack of mentioning this than suspicion on Theorel himself.  What do you think about Theorel at the moment O?

[jotheonah]

That seems ... an odd statement. Rather like "I don't think my math was bad, I just think I got the wrong answer"

At least I had a reason. You seen well and fine to forget your "anybody but me!" vote.

Well no one's asked why I voted Axxle1. Nobody seems to care.

The fact is I can't figure out this damn town. I have this expectation that the scum will be pulling the strings. But a lot of times it feels like no strings are being pulled. And when they are they don't seem to lead back to as scummy people as I would think. So maybe we're looking at a different breed of scum here. Lurky scum. Or maybe it's you (Galz).

[Galzria]

@Axxle2

The difference here, is I felt I had a *mafia* read on Axxle1, and asked the town to consider my arguments. With J, he just reads *scum* to me, and I fully recognize that he could be town, so am NOT actively trying to convince others.

I still would rather not be arguing with him, but he's got his little heart set on me ever since I dared to cast a vote on him D2. I can't actively ignore him when he asks me questions, but I really have no inclination to carry on.

[Captain_Frisk]

ugh C_F is seeming really reasonable bah, unvote (didn't read his last post till now)

And your previous post contained more than 1 sentence AND made sense. What the hell is going on day 2?  At least O is still crazy.

[O]

I'm actually more curious about O's lack of mentioning this than suspicion on Theorel himself.  What do you think about Theorel at the moment O?

Erm... I think he's a dead townie.

And CF, I'm not giving SFS a FOS for dogmatically following you. I'm giving him a FOBTS (finger of bad townie suspicion). SFS is obvtown (for now at least, there are no obvtowns in lylo except for confirmed towns by a role claimed cop with 1 mafia left, or similar If-he's-lying-then-he's-the-only-mafia situations).

I find Pops change in vote/behavior interesting, as well as Axxles inane question (gee.. really.. I wonder what *everybody* thinks of a dead townie..)

[Axxle]

Erm... I think he's a dead townie.

...
...
...
Major self facepalm.

[O]

Thread so inactive.. we need moar posts, guys! Or at least I do. I'm board and not really many 30+ on iso.

[Axxle]

Vote: Galzria
Vote: Dsell
Vote: Robz888
Vote: Captain_Frisk
Vote: O
Vote: Glooble
Vote: popsofctown
Vote: Tables
Vote: Grujah
Vote: jotheonah
Vote: SwitchedFromStarcraft
Vote: Axxle2
Unvote

Is that enough activity? 

This is a very difficult town to gauge.  I don't have very strong reads at all (minus SFS).

[Dsell]

Vote: Axxle2

OMG he self-voted!!! POLICY LYNCH!!!

[Dsell]

Ah I have no idea. I really don't know what to make of the days' posts. I feel practically identical to how I did yesterday. How can we shake this up, and quick? I leave in a few days.

I guess I am somewhat suspicious of both C_F and pops, so I am curious where those two end up going.

[Axxle]

I keep thinking about Galz and why he isn't dead.  I come up with 3 different reasons:

1) He's mafia.
2) Mafia think we'll lynch him because he spearheaded the Axxle1 case and was wrong.
3) Mafia think he'll spearhead another case and be wrong.
4) Mafia thought he'd be protected

I think that Galz's reasons for lynching Axxle1 were much too strong to be clearly malicious. And look how much the town has just written him off. Only J is really pushing Galz's case at the moment (and badly). So point 2 is very unlikely.
For the purposes of this thought experiment I'll assume point 1 is false too:
If 3 is correct, then maybe mafia haven't been that closely followed by Galz or they think they know the type of player Galz is going to try to lynch.  I think we should focus on lurkers since Galz seems to consider them an afterthought, as much of us do.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
Not sure where that gets me. 

Well, that's my conspiracy theory of the evening.  Good night.

[Axxle]

I added the 4th reason midway through and forgot to address it or change the first line.  I think it's unlikely that they'd worry about protective roles first day since they don't even know if they exist.  And it might even help them if they could figure that out early.

[O]

Robz has been MIA... If he has time to beat me by *making* me get a 5-2 split on a hag board, he should have time to come here and explain why he killed Theorel what his suspicions are ATM.

[Dsell]

If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.

I get everything except this line. Have Robz, Glooble, and Tables changed their playstyles a lot this game? This is Glooble's first game here and Tables only got through one day of Mafia II.

[Axxle]

I meant from Day 1 to Day 2.  Glooble has clearly made an effort to get more content into his posts.  Tables has gotten more active too.  Robz has gone much more silent.

[Axxle]

And I don't think any of them were on Galz's radar Day 1, so switching it up Day 2 is slightly dangerous.

[Dsell]

I meant from Day 1 to Day 2.  Glooble has clearly made an effort to get more content into his posts.  Tables has gotten more active too.  Robz has gone much more silent.

Gotcha. And I see your point, too.

[Robz888]

Hey guys. Sorry I've been so quiet. Sort of had a rough IRL day (nothing serious, just a bummer of a day).

I went back through the Day 2 conversation and I have pretty much made up my mind. I'll post an explanation and my vote in just a bit.

[O]

Hey guys. Sorry I've been so quiet. Sort of had a rough IRL day (nothing serious, just a bummer of a day).

I went back through the Day 2 conversation and I have pretty much made up my mind. I'll post an explanation and my vote in just a bit.

>Waits patiently

[Robz888]

As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.

My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.

First, a look at the Day 1 votes.

Vote Count 1-16

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)

The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.

Here is what Glooble says about it:

So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.

Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)

Gloobe begins defending Jo, who I believe is his mafia co-hort. Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died? It makes little sense. And of course Thoerel is NOT more likely the scum kill, for the reasons I outlined. So it looks to me like Gloobe is either really wrong, or he’s trying to suggest the opposite of the truth, deliberately.

He continues:

Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.

Getting Galz on your side is of course a terrific mafia move. And one Jo is incapable of making at this point.

So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.

In other words, if we kill Jo, and he flips mafia--and Glooble knows he will--Glooble is suggesting that we don’t look at the Axxle voters for more mafia. Gloobe, coincidentally was an Axxle voter.

If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.

But if we DO look at Axxle voters other than Jo, he says we should look at Grujah... The easiest person to pin as mafia, by a mile.

For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.

If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.

I don’t like this for the record at all. He’s really trying to have it every which way in this post. Glooble doesn’t think Jo is mafia. But if we kill him and he is mafia, we shouldn’t suspect the other Axxle voters. And if we do suspect the other Axxle voters, we should suspect Grujah. All underlined by faulty logic about which nightkill was the scum kill.

Then, he tries to draw suspicion on SFS--the only living person in this game that we can be sure, beyond any reasonable doubt, is town.

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

Look, I understand in theory why SFS’s move could make sense for scum. But that’s not the case. SFS is clearly exactly what he said, didn’t think it out entirely, maybe.... but there’s no reason to disbelieve this claim. Pops is absolutely right that SFS is “obvtown.” Anyone who says otherwise needs to think about it very carefully. Also, I agree with Pops that it wasn’t necessarily a bad move, given a doctor, there might end up the mafia target and the doctor lining up. I also trust Pops more for pointing this out to the town, and possibly to the doctor. So anyway I am getting strong town reads from both these people.

A rejoinder to CFrisk:

As for Glooble, I'm softening a bit.  I just went back and read his post history - with the mindset that he was 100% mafia... and all I read is bad reads.  (Assuming that theorel is scum kill, accusing SFS of being mafia).

Yes, everything Gloobe said was incorrect, weird accusals, odd defenses of jo, direction away from Axxle voters, etc. Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia. Look, he’s making mistakes either way. But I have a much easier time believing that he’s a mafia member who is doing things that make sense from a mafia perspective (un-subtle and suspicious looking though they are), than he is an incompetent townie.

And my main theory would be that Jo is his accomplice. And truly, my theory works best if this is true. But since I am more sure of Gloobe at this point than Jo, I will VOTE: GLOOBLE.

Certainly Innocent: SFS
Likely Innocent: Pops, Tables, Galzria, Dsell
Unknown: O, Axxle2, Captain Frisk, Grujah
Likely mafia: Glooble, Jotheonah

[Galzria]

I can't put my finger on it... But that post had a distinct M-II feel.

I'm not suggesting you're wrong... Just... Ugh. I don't know. I'll try to pinpoint what stood out to me, and maybe get an explanation back from you.

[O]

Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions.

1) You say Glooble defends Jo because Jo is a fellow mafia, but defends Galzria out of desire for an ally. This seems inconsistent and I don't really see why/how you came to two very different conclusions for the same action. It seems like a passive, Scummy defense of Galzria more than anything else.

2) You said it's possible Glooble is just the worst-town of all time. No, in all likelihoood SFS would be if both were town.

3) You called SFS "100% confirmed town". He is like 90% confirmed town. Obviously it would be inanely stupid to lynch him right now but it's a big overreach to say for certainty that he's town.

Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

4) The rest of your case seems to lie upon the fact that Glooble has said to not look inside the Axxle voters. This annoys me too, after all, I *am* a non-axxle voter. I think I said Theorel hedged his vote when he did the exact same thing. But from the perspective of a townie who voted for Axxle, it makes a bit more sense: He was a town that got lured into it, it follows that others will?

That being said, I agree that his play would have been pretty damn terrible if he is town. Just not as bad as SFS's.

[Galzria]

Alright, I've pinpointed what felt "off" to me about Robz's post, and it's not his analysis of Glooble.

Robz is a really solid player, I think we'd all agree? Well one of the things I learned from playing alongside him as Mafia is that the best deceit lies in the truth.

Upon reading his post, I found his case to be articulately put together, with a strong backbone of posts supporting it. In truth, I can't find a whole lot to fault in his case against Glooble. It's well made, and feels genuine.

But something felt "off" the moment I read his post. And it took me a few reads to figure out what. It wasn't his case against Glooble, it was what preceded it.

The following will look at Robz's opening paragraphs from the perspective that Robz is a Serial Killer:

As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.

My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.

Ok, first off in his opening paragraph he once more uses the "I was right about Axxle1" to try to garner trust. This is especially important moving forward.

What's worth noting (to me), is that while he WAS right about Axxle1, he wasn't the only person who was - and he didn't exactly agree D1 on with those other people about who WAS a better choice. This is relevant because I don't understand why Robz should suddenly be seen as "the voice of Mr. Right", and I don't think using that argument should add any weight to future cases.

Still, as a Serial Killer, it behooves him to have us on his side early, so he starts with "building his credibility."

First, a look at the Day 1 votes.

Vote Count 1-16

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)

Whew, there is a lot in here. Let's start at the top with his bold assertion that Insomniac was the Mafia kill, and Theorel the Vigilante kill.

He doesn't just offer it as opinion, he states it as near fact:

"it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill."

Building off his "credibility" in the first two paragraphs, he doesn't want us to question his assertions here, so doesn't give us the option to.

He follows up his claim with something that IS true, thus reinforcing our faith in him:

"We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others."

Not much to argue with that, as it's pretty spot on basic stuff.

But then we move into the crux of his argument, and the bigger, bolder assertion that there likely is no SK, but instead just an unknown Vigilante somewhere.

I had a hard time swallowing that; not the idea itself, but how SURE Robz was, and how badly he wants everyone to believe it (him).

See, the thing is, convincing people that there is a Vigilante on the loose is a great cover for a Serial Killer. They both (to a degree) want the same thing: To kill at night, ideally Mafia. This is especially true is Town is being lynched during the day.

Every time there is a 2nd NK, Robz can refer back to this post. If the NK hits Mafia, he can cheer the "unknown Vigilante" for a good read. If the NK hits Town, he can lament the "unknown Vilgilante's" reckless play.

And that's just it. His post neither proves nor disproves the existence of either SK or Vigilante, but is designed to sheppard us along into following his beliefs so that he can hide behind the actions of an "unknown Vigilante".

Moving onto his next paragraph:

The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.

Now let's look at his assertions for N1 kills.

Insomniac, as Robz points out, had a track record of reading Mafia tells D2. This is true. Robz's conclusion from that is misleading however. He would like to draw the line between "Someone good at reading Mafia" and "Good Mafia night target". He uses myself and Jotheonah to leverage his point, noting that we are likely to have cause to remember Insomniacs successful Mafia hunting. What Robz omits, is himself.

This was a very tactful decision by Robz, because the scum reads Insomniac got were against HIM, not anybody else. If any of us had a mind to kill Insomniac on the basis of Meta-Gaming then, it would make the most sense to be Robz. The line of connection wasn't that Insomniac could read Mafia, it was that Insomniac could read Robz.

So all that's left is Theorel. Why would the Mafia chose to kill him? Was it because he was on to them? Was it to cast suspicion on the people he suspected? WIFOM.

I don't know why. That's not to say there aren't good reasons: there are. I just don't know which applies best. Multiple people now have suggested multiple reasons, and rehashing then won't get me anywhere.

What I believe, however, is that Robz is the Serial Killer. I believe his case for Glooble is a strong one, and argued from a position of wanting to kill Mafia. I don't know that he's RIGHT, but I'm inclined to believe his case is genuine.

I said in my first response that something about his post felt like an M-II argument, and I feel decent about my read. 100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.

[jotheonah]

Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz

[Captain_Frisk]

Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz

Make up your mind!

Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.

RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.

I don't like either of these.  I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out.  Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair.  I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.

Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill.  Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.

Finally:

And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?

....snip....

100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.

Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer.  Would we want to lynch him as town?  Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night?  Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.

Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-5

jotheonah (1): Dsell
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Glooble (1): Robz888
Robz888 (2): Galzria, jotheonah

Not voting {6}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle, Captain_Frisk, popsofctown

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[jotheonah]

Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz

Make up your mind!

Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.

RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.

I don't like either of these.  I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out.  Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair.  I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.

Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill.  Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.

Finally:

And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?

....snip....

100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.

Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer.  Would we want to lynch him as town?  Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night?  Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.

Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.

I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer.  This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer.  This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.

There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).

I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.

[Galzria]

I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer.  This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.

There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).

I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.

If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.

Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):

If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia

By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

What's wrong with J?

[jotheonah]

I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer.  This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.

There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).

I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.

If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.

Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):

If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia

By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

But it doesn't draw attention to you as Mafia. It makes you look like an even better townie. In your calculations you ignore the town cred you build by catching the killer.

[jotheonah]

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

What's wrong with J?

Didn't you hear? He thinks I'm not mafia, I'm just scum. Whatever the heck that means.

[Galzria]

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

What's wrong with J?

I'm not convinced. I don't like his erratic play, and I don't like his D1 threat against me ("be careful you don't get yourself lynched again coming after me")... But I can't really say I'm convinced he's Mafia. I said that, I believe, when I voted for him D2. His actions read scum, but not Mafia.

In Robz, at least I feel to have a finger on the scum read, compared to J, who just feels scummy for playing so anti-town.

[popsofctown]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

[Galzria]

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

What's wrong with J?

Didn't you hear? He thinks I'm not mafia, I'm just scum. Whatever the heck that means.

What that means, is that even if you are town, you've played such a poor game this round that you've lost all credibility. So your vote is nothing but a vote, and one that can't even be assured is helpful to have. So if you jump on a wagon that is aimed at Mafia, you're as likely to cause people to abandon ship as you are to actually help lynch them.

If you're Mafia, well that all suits you just fine.

But I can't say that I know you are. So all I see is pure anti-town play. As town, your individual survival is irrelevant, but that's all you've played to achieve.

Scum, but not necessarily Mafia.

[popsofctown]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

You sure talk a whole lot about having all the master tells down.

SK hunting is not inherently bad. If something jumps out, it's worth pointing out. Since I don't have much to go on against a possible Mafia (though that might change), I point out what I do see.

By the way, isn't refereeing a IIOA Mafia tell in your little black book? You do a damn awful lot of that.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.

[popsofctown]

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

[Galzria]

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

Then pay close attention.

[popsofctown]

I try

[popsofctown]

I just realized WIFOM is actually depicted on iso

[Captain_Frisk]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

Are you talking about age, level or mean skill?  I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.

As Galz pointed out, when ever you vote or otherwise make noise, it causes me to instinctively question it.

The fact that he continues to quietly direct us away from you while not disagreeing with any of the arguments against your bad behavior makes me suspicious of both of you, but I can put together equally (un?)convincing arguments against everyone here.

[Galzria]

I just realized WIFOM is actually depicted on iso

Scheme, yes?

I am sub-30. I peaked at 29 over... 300? Games since I first learned of Dominion on New Years. But I haven't played in a month and a half. No PC time at home, and can't play in my Android at work. It's one of the reasons I want the...

NO! Trap! Not going down that road! You ALMOST got me to fall into Rrenaud's rule.

Obvscum tactic.

[Axxle]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

I hit 30 again? Yay!

Vote: Galz

Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said.  But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz.  You want to be the only leader in the town.  Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post.  I find that thinking disingenuous.

[Galzria]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

I hit 30 again? Yay!

Vote: Galz

Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said.  But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz.  You want to be the only leader in the town.  Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post.  I find that thinking disingenuous.

That's an odd reason, as there has never been strife between us over something like that, and I would much rather have him with me than against me.

But that's fine.

[Dsell]

The thing that struck me most about Robz' long post is no longer an original criticism, but still confused/bothered me a good bit. I didn't like that he dismissed the idea of a SK in favor of the assumption that it was a Vigilante kill. No one has claimed vig yet, so I think it's much too early to write off the possibility of a SK. Bad assumption, IMO.

Now Galz' reply is actually also very interesting (and also partially based on an assumption, but he admits it so it's cool) and reasoned quite well. He addresses those same issues I did above. It scares me to think that some of our heavyweights might be mafia. Both because they will have a lot of sway with the town and because I don't expect them to make many mistakes.

I really really want Robz to be town. D1, we had a lot of the same ideas. So far D2, well I'm not sure if I think the case against Glooble is quite as strong as he thinks it is but it's not too much of a stretch to envision a mafia partnership between Gloob and jo. Lynching one of them will obviously give us more insight into that idea. But back to my original point, I am more than willing to give Robz some grace here. I'm not convinced that he's either SK or mafia yet, but this idea does give Galzria a little more credibility in my mind. That said, I'm also not convinced by pops that SK hunting is a strong mafia tell. Not amongst newer players anyway.

[Robz888]

Well, teach me to give my opinion. Back to lurking!

Just kidding. I'm going to try and respond to all the criticism at once. In my next post, in just a bit.

[Robz888]

Okay, responses to criticism of my case and of me. First, O:

1) You say Glooble defends Jo because Jo is a fellow mafia, but defends Galzria out of desire for an ally. This seems inconsistent and I don't really see why/how you came to two very different conclusions for the same action. It seems like a passive, Scummy defense of Galzria more than anything else.

You’re right. As I said before, even I succumb to acquitting Galzria for no reason, like everybody else. Don’t know why. It clearly does me no favors. I was assuming he was innocent, which was why I didn’t see Glooble defending him as weird. But, yeah, I’ll try to set that aside. He could be a mafia instead of Jo. But I think the case against Glooble and Jo is stronger. Maybe I’ll re-think that now that Galzria has come strongly after me.

2) You said it's possible Glooble is just the worst-town of all time. No, in all likelihoood SFS would be if both were town.

3) You called SFS "100% confirmed town". He is like 90% confirmed town. Obviously it would be inanely stupid to lynch him right now but it's a big overreach to say for certainty that he's town.

Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

I am like 95% sure that SFS is town. That’s pretty much more certain than I have ever been of anyone in any mafia game so far.

4) The rest of your case seems to lie upon the fact that Glooble has said to not look inside the Axxle voters. This annoys me too, after all, I *am* a non-axxle voter. I think I said Theorel hedged his vote when he did the exact same thing. But from the perspective of a townie who voted for Axxle, it makes a bit more sense: He was a town that got lured into it, it follows that others will?

That being said, I agree that his play would have been pretty damn terrible if he is town. Just not as bad as SFS's.

Seems to me that everything Glooble said was wrong. Making him incompetent, or mafia.

Now, to Galzria:

The following will look at Robz's opening paragraphs from the perspective that Robz is a Serial Killer:

As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.

My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.

Ok, first off in his opening paragraph he once more uses the "I was right about Axxle1" to try to garner trust. This is especially important moving forward.

What's worth noting (to me), is that while he WAS right about Axxle1, he wasn't the only person who was - and he didn't exactly agree D1 on with those other people about who WAS a better choice. This is relevant because I don't understand why Robz should suddenly be seen as "the voice of Mr. Right", and I don't think using that argument should add any weight to future cases.

Essentially, I would like to steal a little bit of your thunder, Galzria. You are a serial mislyncher, and you always seem to get your way. I want the town to listen to someone else for a change. Someone with a better track record than you. And I do think I am on to something. So yes, I want to be seen as the voice of Mr. Right. Absolutely.

Still, as a Serial
Let's start at the top with his bold assertion that Insomniac was the Mafia kill, and Theorel the Vigilante kill.

He doesn't just offer it as opinion, he states it as near fact:

"it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill."

Building off his "credibility" in the first two paragraphs, he doesn't want us to question his assertions here, so doesn't give us the option to.

Well of course it’s an opinion, but I think it’s a correct one. Just as me saying “SFS is town” is an opinion, but I would bet that it’s the correct one. I would also bet on Insomniac as the mafia kill and Theorel as the Vig kill.

I had a hard time swallowing that; not the idea itself, but how SURE Robz was, and how badly he wants everyone to believe it (him).

See, the thing is, convincing people that there is a Vigilante on the loose is a great cover for a Serial Killer. They both (to a degree) want the same thing: To kill at night, ideally Mafia. This is especially true is Town is being lynched during the day.

Every time there is a 2nd NK, Robz can refer back to this post. If the NK hits Mafia, he can cheer the "unknown Vigilante" for a good read. If the NK hits Town, he can lament the "unknown Vilgilante's" reckless play.

And that's just it. His post neither proves nor disproves the existence of either SK or Vigilante, but is designed to sheppard us along into following his beliefs so that he can hide behind the actions of an "unknown Vigilante".

Fine, I’ll just say it: I believe there is a Vigilante who killed Theorel. I also think I know who it is. I am picking up on some tells that possibly other people didn’t notice, but yeah. So that’s why I think it. If the person I have in my head is a Vigilante, the Theorel kill makes a lot of sense. I obviously don’t want to out the person, and I could be wrong. So anyway, that’s why I am so sure.

Moving onto his next paragraph:

The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.

Now let's look at his assertions for N1 kills.

Insomniac, as Robz points out, had a track record of reading Mafia tells D2. This is true. Robz's conclusion from that is misleading however. He would like to draw the line between "Someone good at reading Mafia" and "Good Mafia night target". He uses myself and Jotheonah to leverage his point, noting that we are likely to have cause to remember Insomniacs successful Mafia hunting. What Robz omits, is himself.

This was a very tactful decision by Robz, because the scum reads Insomniac got were against HIM, not anybody else. If any of us had a mind to kill Insomniac on the basis of Meta-Gaming then, it would make the most sense to be Robz. The line of connection wasn't that Insomniac could read Mafia, it was that Insomniac could read Robz.

Um, I would not kill Insomniac if I were mafia or SK. I am a better debater! I beat him fair and sqaure in M2! Really, I wouldn’t consider him a threat to me.

So all that's left is Theorel. Why would the Mafia chose to kill him? Was it because he was on to them? Was it to cast suspicion on the people he suspected? WIFOM.

I don't know why. That's not to say there aren't good reasons: there are. I just don't know which applies best. Multiple people now have suggested multiple reasons, and rehashing then won't get me anywhere.

What I believe, however, is that Robz is the Serial Killer. I believe his case for Glooble is a strong one, and argued from a position of wanting to kill Mafia. I don't know that he's RIGHT, but I'm inclined to believe his case is genuine.

I said in my first response that something about his post felt like an M-II argument, and I feel decent about my read. 100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.

[Robz888]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.

And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?

The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.

There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed.  Are you claiming to be Batman?

[jotheonah]

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

I'm happy to vote for either of them! But apparently my vote is a magic vote that keeps people from being lynched, so maybe you don't want it on Galz.

And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?

The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.

Yes, I already said that I think you're SK/mafia. It makes plenty of sense from where I'm sitting. I have a hard time trusting either of you to be town. This could, admittedly, be an MII bias.

[jotheonah]

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.

There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed.  Are you claiming to be Batman?

An SK claiming Vig? That's original.

[popsofctown]

No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.

[Captain_Frisk]

And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?

The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.

It is impossible to argue on this one.  We've only been awake for a few days, so I'm holding off on severe bandwagoning, but I don't understand how anyone can not suspect him.  The fact that Galz isn't more worked up about it makes me very nervous about him.

That said I would have expectected that if Galz was the mafia ringleader, that J would have received a PM at some point @ night that said something like: "Dude, stop running your mouth.  Tell everyone you're on vacation this week, or swamped with work, and don't post anything."

[Robz888]

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.

There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed.  Are you claiming to be Batman?

I do not know for SURE why Theorel was killed. I am not claiming to be Batman, or to know definitively who Batman is. I have deduced from the conversation yesterday which person is a likely Vigilante, and it makes sense why they would target Theorel.

Um, also, obviously I wouldn't want to say if I was. Nor should the person I suspect of being Vigilante say that they are.

[Captain_Frisk]

No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.

I do now: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=15626

Can I purchase this black book of yours?

[Captain_Frisk]

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.

There is only 1 way to know for sure why Theorel was killed.  Are you claiming to be Batman?

I do not know for SURE why Theorel was killed. I am not claiming to be Batman, or to know definitively who Batman is. I have deduced from the conversation yesterday which person is a likely Vigilante, and it makes sense why they would target Theorel.

Um, also, obviously I wouldn't want to say if I was. Nor should the person I suspect of being Vigilante say that they are.

Fair enough.  I was just reacting to your statement "You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. "

[popsofctown]

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

This thread is now about Counting House.

[jotheonah]

And, come on people. Jo is happy to vote for either of us? Even though Galzria responds to my case against Jo/Glooble by voting for me, all but assuring that me and Galz are not both mafia? What does he think, we are SK/mafia?

The role in the game who would vote for anybody, as long as it's not them, is the mafia.

It is impossible to argue on this one.  We've only been awake for a few days, so I'm holding off on severe bandwagoning, but I don't understand how anyone can not suspect him.  The fact that Galz isn't more worked up about it makes me very nervous about him.

That said I would have expectected that if Galz was the mafia ringleader, that J would have received a PM at some point @ night that said something like: "Dude, stop running your mouth.  Tell everyone you're on vacation this week, or swamped with work, and don't post anything."

Ha! Like I would listen. Srsly though everyone has to decide if I'm a bad town player or a bad mafia player or a bad serial killer.  But there's no option on the table that makes me a good anything.

Still and all, I think that the best thing I can do at this point as town is be obnoxious in a constructive way. So these seemingly random moves ARE designed to get meaningful reactions out of my scumreads.

[Galzria]

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

This thread is now about Counting House.

Ooh, foul called, yellow-flag.

The Ref has blown his whistle.

[O]

@ Galzria's vote, and Popsofctown's vote

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells

Includes Selective Scumhunting, which Pops claims Galzria did, and the chainsaw defense (voting in retaliation for anothers vote) which Galzria did, and then Popsofctown did.

...Though Popsofctown's use of the chainsaw defense is justified simply by saying he used Galzria's tells of scumhunting and the chainsaw defense.

[Voltgloss]

This thread is now about Counting House.

+1 solely for giving me flavor ideas.

[Axxle]

This thread is now about Counting House.

Counting House is actually one of my highest Effect With cards, and I only buy it slightly less often than the average player.

[Axxle]

the chainsaw defense.

"UPDATE: After further analysis, Tarhalindur has determined that the Chainsaw Defense is only trustworthy once the player defended has been revealed to be group scum (once the player defended is proved to be Mafia, any player that used Chainsaw Defense on the dead scum should be scrutinized). Otherwise, it is a null tell. Mutual Chainsaw Defense may, however, still be an outright scumtell; more research is required here. "

[O]

O.

[Captain_Frisk]

@ Galzria's vote, and Popsofctown's vote

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells

Includes Selective Scumhunting, which Pops claims Galzria did, and the chainsaw defense (voting in retaliation for anothers vote) which Galzria did, and then Popsofctown did.

...Though Popsofctown's use of the chainsaw defense is justified simply by saying he used Galzria's tells of scumhunting and the chainsaw defense.

Well that sucks.

[Glooble]

Ok, I wasn't going to get on today, but I need to respond to Robz's post.

Remember how I said at the beginning of this whole thing that jo and I have a RL acquaintance? That acquaintance is that we are brothers. In fact, we are identical twins. I have known him literally my entire life. This is why I seem so certain that he is town, I may not know mafia very well, but I sure as hell know how to read jo. That's why he seems so obvious to me.

That being said, if we were both Mafia, I would have to be the worst Mafia ever for defending him. I said it before, and I'll say it again - if I were Mafia, I would have bussed him on page five. This part of your argument makes no sense whatsoever.

The rest of your argument against me also makes very little sense, and you support it by paraphrasing things I say as things I'm not actually saying.  For example, "Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died?" - not what I was saying in my post. All I said was IF jo is mafia, than I can't imagine him killing insomniac, since he was clearly laying the groundwork to set him up for a lynch." What I was doing was taking something with two possibilities, and stating something which we could infer if a particular one of those possibilities was true. Because I'm not certain enough about anything to say "This is true because this is true". YOu, apparently, are.

Apparently I look like scum because I'm unsure about things, and I'm offering opinions. I'm "hedging" because I've seen lots of smart, experienced people be wrong about things and its made me pretty cynical. You, on the other hand, seem perfectly willing to take things at face value. "We can be sure, beyond all reasonable doubt, SFS is town?" I've seen the arguments for that one, and I still don't buy them.

But imagine I am scum. I look at SFS and see one of the most trusted townies in the game, and try and lead a bandwagon on him? I'd have to be a complete idiot. Even if I did manage to get him lynched, I would be immediately lynched the next day. Mafia want to lead bandwagons on people who look suspicious, in places where they already have allies.

You said, and I quote, "Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia." I disagree. I think the options are I'm playing a decent, if somewhat timid game as town, or the worst mafia ever.

[jotheonah]

Confirm RL twin claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

In fact, we are identical twins.

Strangest reveal ever.

[Glooble]

Second worst. Worst mafia ever would be jo.

[Robz888]

In fact, we are identical twins.

Strangest reveal ever.

It gave me chills to read it, for some reason. It's fine, we agreed it was fine in the first place, of course. Just unexpected. And actually, it does sort of explain why Glooble would spend so much time talking about Jo. I forgot that they knew each other.

So, it makes me a little less confident in my theory, I suppose.

[Axxle]

There is a fifth dimension, beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition. And, it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone.

[Captain_Frisk]

I do not like it.

Votoes for Axxle1

Galz
J
Me
SFS
pops
Glooble
Grujah
theorel

If I strike theorel, myself (the only thing I know for sure), SFS (nearlyobvtown), Grujah (mislynch waiting to happen), Glooble / J (Wundertwins), I'm left with:

Galzria
pops

Of course - Grujah is a misylnch waiting to happen per Galz, so maybe he should go in the suspect pool too.

Pops' defense of SFS instead of trying to crush him for bad play makes me suspicious.  Galz... well I've been wrong about him in the past.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pops' defense of SFS instead of trying to crush him for bad play makes me suspicious.  Galz... well I've been wrong about him in the past.

Damn no edit: Should read: "makes me less suspicious of him"

[O]

Pops' defense of SFS instead of trying to crush him for bad play makes me suspicious.  Galz... well I've been wrong about him in the past.

Damn no edit: Should read: "makes me less suspicious of him"

Really.. defending an obvtown makes him less suspicious? I'm pretty sure *everyone* alive agrees that for all intensive purposes SFS is obvtown.

[Robz888]

Everyone except Glooble...

[Captain_Frisk]

Everyone except Glooble...

+1 for a much needed end of day LOL.

[jotheonah]

Where has Grujah been? I'd say I'm ok with him as a policy lynch, but if we resort to a policy lynch today it had better damn well be me.

[popsofctown]

This thread got super weird.


I'm voting Galzria right? good.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-6

jotheonah (1): Dsell
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Glooble (1): Robz888
Robz888 (2): Galzria, jotheonah
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Axxle

Not voting {4}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Captain_Frisk]

This thread got super weird.


I'm voting Galzria right? good.

Oh lawd can we get a vote count?

Pre Post Edit - Ninja'd

[jotheonah]

Sorry about the weirdness. Before the game started we were like "Let's not mention it, but if it's producing false positive reads, we have to mention it." It's definitely funky meta.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

[O]

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

[Robz888]

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.

As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)

[jotheonah]

It's ok, Robz, you still have my magic vote on you, and as such you are invincible.

[popsofctown]

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

Dat confirmation bias.

[O]

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

Dat confirmation bias.

Except I really was suspicious of him at first. So it's like, the opposite of confirmation bias.

[Galzria]

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.

As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)

Sorry Robz, I've got my reasons, and O (damn unreadable townie) might be onto them.

More to your point, your counter argument was "I just know. I've got a read I can't share, so you'll just have to trust me". I understand and agree completely that you shouldn't share your read if you have one. But I can't just take your word that you do.

It's a catch-22 for you in my eyes right now, and I recognize that (if it makes you feel better). The only way to clear your name would be to possibly incriminate yourself and/or someone else for entirely different reasons.

[Dsell]

Ugh, it's difficult to keep up with both MIII and MIV right now. Glooble and jo...now that is a twist! I don't know where that leaves us but yeah, I guess it makes sense why Gloob was defending him some. I think this should make me a little less suspicious of jo, too. So, I'll have to think about that.

Frankly, I am going to have to come back later and reread a lot from today. For now, I'm going to Vote: popsofctown not because I think he's the most suspicious but because his "refereeing" is bugging me and I want to send a message. Even if he's just trolling.

[Axxle]

Unvote

I don't like the timing of CF's vote.  He calls for a votecount then votes without much explanation.  I'm going to reread CF critically before I send my vote to him.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote

I don't like the timing of CF's vote.  He calls for a votecount then votes without much explanation.  I'm going to reread CF critically before I send my vote to him.

Tone clear, I voted with no explanation

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote

I don't like the timing of CF's vote.  He calls for a votecount then votes without much explanation.  I'm going to reread CF critically before I send my vote to him.

Tone clear, I voted with no explanation

Stupid iPhone.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-BLEURGH

Striking the whole thing and starting again.  I found where my spreadsheet got horribly, horribly off.

[Dsell]

I voted for pops but it was in the middle of a sentence.

[popsofctown]

Joth is adhesive

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Count 2-7

jotheonah (1): Dsell
Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Robz888 (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): popsofctown

Not voting {5}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Robz888, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

And I voted for Galzria. 

Doublevote: voltgloss

[Voltgloss]

GAH

Sorry gang.  It's been a really tough day at work.  Fixing now.

[Captain_Frisk]

GAH

Sorry gang.  It's been a really tough day at work.  Fixing now.

Dsell should be on pops

[Voltgloss]

New vote count being made in new post.  Because, wow, it's been a really difficult day at work and I guess it's showing here.

[popsofctown]

no he shouldn't.  he is, though.

[O]

no he shouldn't.  he is, though.

2/10

[Captain_Frisk]

Take your time volt. There are other threads waiting for you I think.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-7 v2

Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (2): Tables, Dsell
Robz888 (2): Galzria, jotheonah
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Captain_Frisk
Voltgloss (2): Captain_Frisk, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {5}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Robz888, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Dsell]

Vote Count 2-7 v2

Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (2): Tables, Dsell
Robz888 (2): Galzria, jotheonah
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Captain_Frisk
Voltgloss (2): Captain_Frisk, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {5}: Glooble, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Robz888, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

I'm only quoting this because I know it will be edited and I want to keep a copy. We love you, Voltgloss, we really, really do. 

[jotheonah]

I'm ... adhesive?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm getting caught up, but I have a LOT to read.  Am likely to respond to individual posts, in order of reading, rather than try to craft some long missive.

[Tables]

Really.. defending an obvtown makes him less suspicious? I'm pretty sure *everyone* alive agrees that for all intensive purposes SFS is obvtown.

Actually, this has been bugging me. I am by no means convinced of SFS's innocence. If it's based on his claim, it's very easy to imagine him doing it as a mafia play. It could be a more experienced teammates suggestion. Which players were first to strongly suggest the action left SFS near clear? Who just agreed with it later? These are things I actually think should be looking at. It's not like his other actions have been obvious town play (and if it has, obvious means that proof should spring immediately to mind, so show me the proof!).

...  Tables has gotten more active too.  ...

Wait, what? Isn't this my 2nd post of the (game) day? And it's a Wednesday, so you're lucky I'm even on now to be honest...


Some other not-much-else-to-say observations:

I haven't seen much from Grujah recently that's been useful enough for me to record. Grujah, you there?

Glooble's RL claim and the following few posts were hilarious. I lol'd.

Axxle made a pure comedy post earlier in response to a lack of content. I know he'll just say 'I got lynched for stifling comedy before' but, uh, it kinda stuck out a little as being a bit odd.

Okay, the last post count struck me as interesting. (The rest of this paragraph is a bit train of thought and doesn't go anywhere. I'm posting it because I still thought it, but it's not the most useful of analysis). Can we read anything out of this? The mafia seems hesitant to try and push a specific bandwagon along. This could be down to a big number of reasons. Firstly, it could be that no or few mafia are in the pool, and mafia doesn't want to risk putting on the 'suspicious' 3rd or 4th vote on anyone. It could be that mafia are being cautious. It could be that Mafia have already tried to start a bandwagon, and nobody has joined it. Eh... that's a few too many options really.

Right, so, the main thing that seems to be here was the Robz-Galzria debate. I definitely thought something felt off about Robz post when I first read it, but Galz argument didn't feel much better. And Robz counterarguments felt much better to me - they addressed what I think were my main concerns, and in particular the fact that Robz seems overly certain about things. I don't think Galz thinking Robz is SK should be a red flag. It was just one 'albeit long' post, and adressed exactly the thing Galz said: What he thought was off about Robz post. I never saw Galz seriously trying to hunt Killer and nobody else, and as scum, I agree with what he said that he could just off the Killer at night. HOWEVER I do agree with Frisk's point: The Killer at this point isn't our enemy. His best bet is definitely killing mafia, considering the town is 3-0 down in terms of deaths. And I'm hesitant to think Galz didn't realise that. But he did vote Robz. Black mark against Galz, from that.

My vote currently is on Pops, and it's staying there. His post 1353 has only made me more suspicious of him. Firstly, he considers himself a very likely lynch for the day. Umm... why? As town, I can't see why you'd say that. As mafia, it feels like a puppy-eyed subtle way of saying 'don't lynch me!'. I don't like it. Generally, the whole post sounded off. I'm back and forth on whether I find the reason given for changing the me/SFS protection rate you seem rather obsessed with is suspicious or expected, really not sure. What I think right now is most likely is, you're scum, SFS is town and what you wanted until I called it was for doctor to most likely not protect me so you could off me easily. But now with everyone thinking SFS is certain town, maybe it's the other way around.

[jotheonah]

Ok, reread 30 pages of forum. Not enlightening. Made my head hurt. Feel strongly like either Galz or pops is mafia, but my reads are shit. Anyway, Vote: Galzria.

[jotheonah]

either, but not both, if that wasn't clear.

[Galzria]

Ok, reread 30 pages of forum. Not enlightening. Made my head hurt. Feel strongly like either Galz or pops is mafia, but my reads are shit. Anyway, Vote: Galzria.

Shh, be vewy vewy quiet. I'm huntin' Wabbits!

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

1) I explained my reasons for picking Tables in post #1239 (p50). If you've not read it, please do so.  If you have, don't let me impede your venting.
2) Why not share the information immediately? What is the value of holding back?  There is a disadvantage to holding back - it may make your information less believable ("why reveal that now") if the info is provided at a particularly "interesting" time.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I actually see Gloob's point. And Voltgloss's OP actually says there could be multiple of a role, so he's not in much danger of a counterclaim. CF, WHY would it be such a bad mafia play?

I agree that it's a weak roleclaim, but to come out and claim when most people seem to have written you off as a crazy townie seems like calling down unnecessary attention on yourself.

I'm sticking with Hanlon's Razor on my read here.  As evidence, I present today's isotropic leaderboard:

SwitchedFromStarcraft
15.610 ± 9.758   
983 games played

(No offense intended SFS)

None taken.  People who take offense at the stating of material fact (especially mathematical ones) either have something to be defensive about, or are Republicans.  I am neither.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@Galz

Ok, you want the convincing argument for my radical change in playstyle? Here it is. During MII I was unemployed. I had lots and lots of time to analyze, quote, repost, be rational. Since this game started I've been working 10 to 6. I have time to stop in here at work and post a pithy response or two, but I don't have time for in-depth analysis. And when I get home at the end of the day, I'm just tired.

So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.

See past your tunnel vision for a second, and believe in my towniness. Or don't.

Emphasis mine
THIS.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

@Glooble & C_F & pops

I ended up thinking at the end of day 1 that SFS probably was indeed just new to mafia and was playing how a new town might play. With his roleclaim today it really confirmed it in my mind. I don't see how that makes any sense for a mafia to do that, especially with his mafia partner/s' approval. I guess he could be a witch but it seems impossible to make any real case about that right now.

Glooble, you obviously see things differently. I think you are assuming that SFS is thinking about the game as much/the same way as you. I don't know how much you've played this game before but we're not all putting the same level of thought and strategy into it. So I just really, really disagree with your point. I mean, it's possible, but this is on the same level as SFS' day 1 conspiracy theories for me. I just dooon't see it being a thing. I think it's ridiculous that this all looks scummy to you when the MOST obvious scenario is that he just wanted to be helpful and use his PR before he died. If he was playing the game the same way as you or some others, I would be suspicious too, but SFS clearly has a different perspective on the game.

OTOH, I'm surprised to see C_F really jump on that analysis as suspicious. We are all trying to offer a new perspective: I did last night, and even SFS got points in my book when he put forth the (admittedly ridiculous) idea of an Axxle-C_F mafia pairing. That's the kind of analysis I think we should be rewarding, not seeing as suspicious. I think we can all tell what might be true and what's farfetched, or we should be able to as a town. I completely disagree with Glooble's point but I did not see it as a deflection of attention.

So today I'm still thinking jo is really suspicious, and C_F to some extent too. But jo, oh jo. How is counterclaiming on Galz an effort at good town play? Have you resigned yourself to erratic play? You are creating this terrible lesser-of-two-evils scenario for the town where you are either a really bad townie who's admitting your flaws with your words but doing nothing to change your anti-town actions OR you are a mafia who's been caught in his game and is scrambling/trying to keep up the ruse.

This...

So, in light of that, and in the interest of experimentation, I started playing this game with a light touch. That doesn't come at all naturally to me, so it's been a weird fit. Probably would not try it again.

...and other quotes make me really really wary. I just don't think you're a bad player! We all have to work with limited time frames, it doesn't mean we have nothing good to say. Look at Tables, you've posted ten times as much as him, and he still managed to have some good analysis day 1. You asked me a couple days ago (maybe yesterday?) what you could do to convince me and others that you're town. NOT THIS.

Vote: jotheonah

I am open to voting for others, though, and may move my vote around some.

Emphasis mine (3 times)
Boldface #1:  This has been the case all along for me, which is why my early posts were considered fluff.
Boldface #2:  Thanks for the support
Boldface #3:  You saying this raises a flag for me.  I certainly thought I reviewed ALL (there were so few it wasn't difficult) of Tables posts before putting in my night action, and I remember nothing of the sort.  Can you point me to the analysis you thought was good?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

What about a SFS/C.F./TABLES pairing? SFS's conspiracy day one would be to incriminate C.F. as Mafia IF Axxle1 came up Mafia, which he knew couldn't happen.

He then opens D2 using Axxle1's town flip to exonerate C.F., while simultaneously continuing to play "new townie" by claiming to have investigated his other partner, Tables.  Thus removing all 3 from the frontlines.

Excellent point. That would, I assume, be world class play.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Not like Roullette.  It is like he's saying he went all in before the River with pocket Kings and a King because only one card off the River could make a straight possible - and it did.



I hate poker.  No offense SFS

Hey man, no problem.  I thought I made it clear that I no longer play, and elsewhere on this forum I've posted the reasons why.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.

That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't.  You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me.  So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)

VOTE: 0 (aka .)

[O]

...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.

That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't.  You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me.  So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)

VOTE: 0 (aka .)

....I stopped after Pops said rolehunting was a terrible idea, but if you really are going to vote for me I'll explicity explain myself, which is nearly certainly not good for town.

[jotheonah]

O, one vote worries you so much you'll risk anti-town play? Don't be me dude.

[O]

O, one vote worries you so much you'll risk anti-town play? Don't be me dude.

OK, but SFS is just.... such a terrible, terrible townie. A TOWNIE NONETHELESS, sfs, but a terrible one.

[Galzria]

O, one vote worries you so much you'll risk anti-town play? Don't be me dude.

OK, but SFS is just.... such a terrible, terrible townie. A TOWNIE NONETHELESS, sfs, but a terrible one.

Maybe. But J is right. You are a much better one (than either of them).

[O]

Also if SFS hadn't claimed I would be trying to policy lynch him for bringing politics into mafia, and I'm a radical liberal.

[Galzria]

Also if SFS hadn't claimed I would be trying to policy lynch him for bringing politics into mafia, and I'm a radical liberal.

I think I got you beat in that category, but this isn't the place to discuss that. 

[jotheonah]

I have so little desire to know the political affiliations of my f.ds friends.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

If it's not clear from earlier posts, I've not yet attained that level.
I think I was on today about the time you posted this too.

[Tables]

I have so little desire to know the political affiliations of my f.ds friends.

I'm very very far on whichever wing you like less.

And I'm about level 25ish on Isotropic. Haven't played Dominion for a while actually. I reckon if I played enough in one day to lower my uncertainty, I could push 30 though (my uncertainty means that my actual average rank is about 4-6 levels higher than the majority around my level).

Also, I've seen nobody yet give a good reason for SFS being obvious town. It's only been a few hours, but I'd like to highlight that I either want to see the reasons, or see more people admit someone is pulling the strings about how 'we' feel.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

Are you talking about age, level or mean skill?  I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.

Aww, I'm starting to think you guys like me.  For those supposedly paying attention, I believe I've already posted my specific age here in this thread.  I certainly have elsewhere on the forum.  Yes I'm over 30 (well over). And I likely wont see 30 as a description of the other two variables as applicable to me.

[jotheonah]

I have so little desire to know the political affiliations of my f.ds friends.

I'm very very far on whichever wing you like less.

And I'm about level 25ish on Isotropic. Haven't played Dominion for a while actually. I reckon if I played enough in one day to lower my uncertainty, I could push 30 though (my uncertainty means that my actual average rank is about 4-6 levels higher than the majority around my level).

Also, I've seen nobody yet give a good reason for SFS being obvious town. It's only been a few hours, but I'd like to highlight that I either want to see the reasons, or see more people admit someone is pulling the strings about how 'we' feel.

There was a lot of beating around that same bush on Day 1, in case you forgot.

[Captain_Frisk]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

Are you talking about age, level or mean skill?  I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.

Aww, I'm starting to think you guys like me.  For those supposedly paying attention, I believe I've already posted my specific age here in this thread.  I certainly have elsewhere on the forum.  Yes I'm over 30 (well over). And I likely wont see 30 as a description of the other two variables as applicable to me.

There is nothing wrong with being on either side of 30 on all of those metrics, I was just trying to clarify what the hell he was asking, and because I had actually looked you up, I knew about your iso rating.  I just commented on the age to get another Alice's Restaraunt reference in, because if the other people reading this aren't listening to that song RIGHT NOW, they are doing it wrong.

That said, it appears that you've been cleared (tables being an exception)  Is there any reason for the rapid fire posting responding to messages from many pages back?  Many of these really just don't seem like they warrant their own post.  What is your goal here?

[popsofctown]

I'm so lost this game.  I'm not sure Galzria is scum.  I think the scum likely have a low post count, just out of PoE logic since I haven't found any.  I wish Green Opal was still in the game because I could get a continuous read on that lurky slot.

Maybe we should just lynch Grujah because why not.
Which is not a good reason.

Someone say something brilliant.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Ok, I wasn't going to get on today, but I need to respond to Robz's post.

Remember how I said at the beginning of this whole thing that jo and I have a RL acquaintance? That acquaintance is that we are brothers. In fact, we are identical twins. I have known him literally my entire life. This is why I seem so certain that he is town, I may not know mafia very well, but I sure as hell know how to read jo. That's why he seems so obvious to me.

That being said, if we were both Mafia, I would have to be the worst Mafia ever for defending him. I said it before, and I'll say it again - if I were Mafia, I would have bussed him on page five. This part of your argument makes no sense whatsoever.

The rest of your argument against me also makes very little sense, and you support it by paraphrasing things I say as things I'm not actually saying.  For example, "Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died?" - not what I was saying in my post. All I said was IF jo is mafia, than I can't imagine him killing insomniac, since he was clearly laying the groundwork to set him up for a lynch." What I was doing was taking something with two possibilities, and stating something which we could infer if a particular one of those possibilities was true. Because I'm not certain enough about anything to say "This is true because this is true". YOu, apparently, are.

Apparently I look like scum because I'm unsure about things, and I'm offering opinions. I'm "hedging" because I've seen lots of smart, experienced people be wrong about things and its made me pretty cynical. You, on the other hand, seem perfectly willing to take things at face value. "We can be sure, beyond all reasonable doubt, SFS is town?" I've seen the arguments for that one, and I still don't buy them.

But imagine I am scum. I look at SFS and see one of the most trusted townies in the game, and try and lead a bandwagon on him? I'd have to be a complete idiot. Even if I did manage to get him lynched, I would be immediately lynched the next day. Mafia want to lead bandwagons on people who look suspicious, in places where they already have allies.

You said, and I quote, "Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia." I disagree. I think the options are I'm playing a decent, if somewhat timid game as town, or the worst mafia ever.

Emphasis mine
Is this a tell?  In setting up this paragraph, you asked us to imagine you are scum - ok, we await the hypothetical. Blah blah, then the magic words "I would be immediately lynched the next day".  That would be true only if I flipped town, but you didn't establish that in the setup of the hypothetical, and I'm not sure it is assumed, especially in light of your feelings - you aren't convinced I'm town. So did you slip up?  'Cause the only people that know FOR SURE that I am town are me, the mafia, and Voltgloss.

[Captain_Frisk]

Someone say something brilliant.

I'm going to bed.

[Tables]

...  'Cause the only people that know FOR SURE that I am town are me, the mafia, and Voltgloss.

Even the mafia don't know for sure, if there's a witch. But your claim would be ludicrous for a Witch. In both a 'it will make you get shot up by the mafia in a few days' and a 'I don't think you'd have thought of it' way, but it's still a possibility.

Joth: I saw Pops saying SFS was obvtown on day 1. But all I've seen today is his claim, followed by a few people saying he's obvtown now and some sheeping of it. If it really is that obvious, it should be easy enough to give at least a few reasons, right?

This is just like the Galzria 'case'. From what I can see, some people have stated it, and people are now following it as fact without enough justification of the point.

[Tables]

Someone say something brilliant.

I'm going to bed.

This seems like a brilliant enough suggestion that I'm going to follow it.

[Robz888]

I, too, am feeling fairly lost. I liked my theory about Glooble and Jo, but them being twin brothers sort of explains it away. I still find them separately to be the most suspicious people, so I hesitantly support lynching one or the other, although I'm not sure which one.

As for Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. I can't read him at all. He makes mostly good arguments, some very bad arguments, and his votes are everywhere.

Tables, I think SFS is obvtown because of his roleclaim. I don't think he's smart enough to lie about it. I'm not suggesting he's stupid--I mean that in the context of mafia, he seems too new-ish, and too poor an arguer right now to pull this off. It strikes me as naivety, not mafia strategy.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Also if SFS hadn't claimed I would be trying to policy lynch him for bringing politics into mafia, and I'm a radical liberal.

I warned everyone in an early post on Day 1 that I would be using humor.  (That post itself drew all sorts of scrutiny.)  I did not promise that everyone would find it funny.  (Nor did I promise I would be a good player.)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.

That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't.  You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me.  So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)

VOTE: 0 (aka .)

....I stopped after Pops said rolehunting was a terrible idea, but if you really are going to vote for me I'll explicity explain myself, which is nearly certainly not good for town.

Well, I want to be fair, and not affect the outcome of the game any more than I already have (I guess now I'm glad I voted for the discussion thread, cause I'm probably enormously entertaining there) so:

@All other than O - Can someone give me an example (or a hypothetical) of a situation where a player responding to thoughts such as mine in the quoted post be bad for the town?  For extra credit, confirm (or make me doubt) my thinking that offering but deferring a response because it 'would not be good for the town' is just as likely a mafia thing to say as a town thing to say.

@O - This is not to prompt a response (yet) from you, as I will respect your desire not to follow in my bad-town-play footsteps, but you can certainly consider my vote as evidence that I really did intend to vote for you. In case it wasn't, you know, obvious. I have not, and will not, be voting for someone I don't intend to. Sigh.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

Are you talking about age, level or mean skill?  I think SFS is below 30 on 2 of those, but based on his recognition of Alice's Restaurant, I predict that he is over 30 on age.

Aww, I'm starting to think you guys like me.  For those supposedly paying attention, I believe I've already posted my specific age here in this thread.  I certainly have elsewhere on the forum.  Yes I'm over 30 (well over). And I likely wont see 30 as a description of the other two variables as applicable to me.

There is nothing wrong with being on either side of 30 on all of those metrics, I was just trying to clarify what the hell he was asking, and because I had actually looked you up, I knew about your iso rating.  I just commented on the age to get another Alice's Restaraunt reference in, because if the other people reading this aren't listening to that song RIGHT NOW, they are doing it wrong.

That said, it appears that you've been cleared (tables being an exception)  Is there any reason for the rapid fire posting responding to messages from many pages back?  Many of these really just don't seem like they warrant their own post.  What is your goal here?

CF, I'm just getting caught up after 48 hours of no reading.  My goal in this game is to have some idea (by the end of the game) as to how to play.  Apparently, I will achieve that by knowing how not to play.  Some of tonite's posts were to respond to things I thought needed responding to, and others were to point things out or ask for responses from others.  There is an excellent chance that some of those in the former category result from a combination of a) my feeling somewhat bruised and b) my unwillingness to stop being myself even when playing a game.

[Glooble]

Is this a tell?  In setting up this paragraph, you asked us to imagine you are scum - ok, we await the hypothetical. Blah blah, then the magic words "I would be immediately lynched the next day".  That would be true only if I flipped town, but you didn't establish that in the setup of the hypothetical, and I'm not sure it is assumed, especially in light of your feelings - you aren't convinced I'm town. So did you slip up?  'Cause the only people that know FOR SURE that I am town are me, the mafia, and Voltgloss.

If we assume that I am scum, I would know that you are not scum. Well, barring one of us being the witch. The Mafia know who their partners are.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.

Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.

Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.

That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.

Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.

That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.

On whom I have my strongest reads, switching my vote at this time would accomplish nothing. My case against Robz, I still believe is as likely as his counter-argument (though again: it would be harmful for him to elaborate at this time). Furthermore, lynching SK instead of Mafia at this time is not a concern of mine - by which I mean my potential SK read is not in danger of dying.

And there is more to be gained from post #1391 than you got from it.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-8

Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (2): Tables, Dsell
Robz888 (1): Galzria
Galzria (3): popsofctown, Captain_Frisk, jotheonah
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {4}: Glooble, Grujah, Robz888, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[popsofctown]

Captain Frisk is a bawss.  I feel better about my Galz vote now.


For those who missed the obvious, "I'd just shoot the SK" rings entirely hollow if the SK is kill immune.

[O]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.

Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.

That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.

...Yea no, we want to lynch both SK and mafia scum. Can't really try and rely on one scum to take out the other.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

Think about it. Look at the votes, the history, and think about it. If it helps, look at post #1391, and consider it.

Also, I'm leaning towards Dsell and O being Town.

That explains why you'd rather lynch SK over letting Mafia NK them, an argument I"m not sure I agree with... but it doesn't address why you have claimed to have a Mafia read on Pops and or Axxle (since you comment when I vote that I'm the first (maybe 2nd) town)... yet are not actually voting to lynch mafia.

...Yea no, we want to lynch both SK and mafia scum. Can't really try and rely on one scum to take out the other.

Of course we do.  All I'm saying is that:I believe that Town should prefer:

Mafia Lynch > Serial Killer Lynch > Town Lynch

Mafia should prefer:
Serial Killer Lynch > Town Lynch > Mafia Lynch

Serial Killer (based on current game state) should prefer:
Mafia Lynch > Town Lynch > SK Lynch

Mafia night kill should prefer:
Serial Killer > Town

Vig night kill should prefer:
Mafia > Serial Killer > Town

SK night kill should prefer:
Mafia > Town > (Only Morgrim would self kill as SK)

If RobZ is a serial killer (which is a very specific accusation), I would want to lynch him after the game state has shifted back to a scenario where the SK would want to kill town again.

[O]

But if we can't be sure of lynching mafia, and we had a guaranteed SK lynch (we don't by any means), its inanely stupid to wander blindly into town lynch, 2x town kill again. We'd lynch the SK immediately first, since they're guaranteed to not be townie.

That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK

[Captain_Frisk]

That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK

+1. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Bump.

2 hours and no posting?  I know crazy O is flying around, but surely other folks are around.  Anyone else want to suspect people?  Galz is quiet, which is way out of character, and given that he just died in that brain burner of a game Bastard Mafia I, he shouldn't have any distractions.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I am totally just sitting around hoping mafia stuff happens.

[Galzria]

Bump.

2 hours and no posting?  I know crazy O is flying around, but surely other folks are around.  Anyone else want to suspect people?  Galz is quiet, which is way out of character, and given that he just died in that brain burner of a game Bastard Mafia I, he shouldn't have any distractions.

I will put things together in a mammoth, rip your eyes out, post late tonight. I need to be at a PC to do so. But I'm only doing it for you, k?

[Robz888]

As soon as you do, Galz, I am going to accuse you of being the Serial Killer.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok, who else do we have here (in random order after copy paste of most recent vote count)

Captain_Frisk: Hi

popsofctown: Playing the too much of a pain in the ass to suspect more or less than anyone else game.
O: See Pops

J: Should be lynched on policy, but too dangerous to do today.  I can promise my next game will open with a vote on J.
Glooble: Should be lynched in accordance with same policy.

Robz888:  Actively posting.  Is apparently the serial killer.  I don't agree with his beliefs, but information in this game is not symmetric.
Galzria: Making what I perceive to be bad arguments... which seems way out of character.

SwitchedFromStarcraft: I think I got enough of his posting last night.
Grujah: Where are you man?
Axxle:   Most recent post: 7pm last night.  Plenty of activity elsewhere between now and then.  Any thoughts other than not liking my vote?
Tables:  His continued discussion of SFS feels strange to me.  If we were on day 1, a policy lynch on SFS would be fine by me, but today it seems that we have more suspicious characters than dreaming up a conspiracy theory in which SFS was told "Please act bananas"
Dsell:     No meaningful posts here in a while.  I know that other game is more exciting, but this could be lurking?

[Captain_Frisk]

Is it time to start voting happily ever after?

[Dsell]

@C_F, sorry, yes I've been lurking some, between MIII being at a crucial juncture and leaving for vacation tomorrow I've been really busy. Unfortunately I don't have a ton of substance to add at this point.

I suppose I understand what Tables is getting at by saying he's not convinced that SFS is obvtown. What really sealed the deal for me was his reveal of his nighttime action. I just don't see him doing that as mafia, even at the suggestion of scum buddies. There've been lots of other things but mainly...he looks just like a noob! Which is what he claims he is, so I see no real reason for concern. Tables, are you suspicious of SFS or just concerned that people are seeing him as 100% town?

I don't think I buy a lot of the SK talk, not because they're not sound arguments but because they are based on SO MANY ASSUMPTIONS. There is just really no way to know who is what with a town this size. So if things persist as they are and there is still a SK out there in a few days, we may really need to come back and look closely at these arguments. But for now there are just too many variables for me to really buy in.

There's been a lot of butting of heads going on recently and I don't know exactly what to make of it. I hope there is mafia in there somewhere but I can't be sure, so it may all be a wild goose chase anyway.

I am still pretty suspicious of jo.

I'm actually pretty tempted to vote for Grujah because I really do suspect this guy...lurking, looking opportunistic with his votes, with fairly short and forgettable posts.

For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.

Vote: jotheonah

[Axxle]

Vote: Galz

I'm not as wary of CF's weird vote anymore.  I may rescind it again after Galz's mega post he claims to have.

[Captain_Frisk]

For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.

Vote: jotheonah

Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?

[Dsell]

For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.

Vote: jotheonah

Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?

I'm on Pacific time. I'm leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am so I will probably try to go to bed at 10 pm. I may still see things/be able to post on my ipod as late as 11 pm tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.

Vote: jotheonah

Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?

I'm on Pacific time. I'm leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am so I will probably try to go to bed at 10 pm. I may still see things/be able to post on my ipod as late as 11 pm tonight.

And you're off the grid for a full week?

[Dsell]

For now I think I'll revert back to jo and if any of these feuds get off the ground, I may pick a side before I leave.

Vote: jotheonah

Too lazy to find it - what is your schedule?

I'm on Pacific time. I'm leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am so I will probably try to go to bed at 10 pm. I may still see things/be able to post on my ipod as late as 11 pm tonight.

And you're off the grid for a full week?

Mmhmm. 

So I don't know if I'll be very useful this lynch. Sorry. 

[jotheonah]

I approve of where you've chosen to leave your vote while you're gone.

[Tables]

...Tables, are you suspicious of SFS or just concerned that people are seeing him as 100% town?...

Pretty much the second. The only reason I'm still talking about SFS is because nobody had answered my simple question, why he's obv town. Now I've seen two people give a reason, and it was the same one - he wouldn't pull a move like that because he's too new. DSell (in the post I quoted above) went one step further and said he doesn't think the mafia would suggest it, but I'm really not convinced by that. If I were mafia with a newer player as a buddy, I'd be willing to take a risk with a new player telling them to take such a move. It'd be virtually unquestionable and if it worked, would put the other mafioso in a very strong position. In fact, if that is what's happened, it's very almost worked.

[Dsell]

DSell (in the post I quoted above) went one step further and said he doesn't think the mafia would suggest it, but I'm really not convinced by that. If I were mafia with a newer player as a buddy, I'd be willing to take a risk with a new player telling them to take such a move. It'd be virtually unquestionable and if it worked, would put the other mafioso in a very strong position. In fact, if that is what's happened, it's very almost worked.

I'm not saying it wouldn't happen, I'm saying I don't think it would look like that. His mafia buddies may give him the idea but it's on him to pull it off convincingly. And the reveal by him didn't look any different than the rest of his play, which has seemed pretty straightforward, if analysis-light.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-9

Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Robz888 (1): Galzria
Galzria (4): popsofctown, Captain_Frisk, jotheonah, Axxle
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (1): Dsell

Not voting {3}: Glooble, Grujah, Robz888

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Galz

I'm not as wary of CF's weird vote anymore.  I may rescind it again after Galz's mega post he claims to have.

I was more curious of the reaction to a vote with no explanation and to see what happened to the Galz bandwagon if I voted for him.  Of the Axxle1 lynchers, I don't like PopZ or Galz.  Galz has made some (IMHO) questionable statements today, Popz has consistently been a jerk.  I don't know what to make of you and or Grujah, since you've been so damn quiet.

[O]

If galz mega posts, I'm voting for him as a policy lynch.

[popsofctown]

wtf i have been nothing but kind today why does everyone hate me.

I make lucid posts sometimes.

[Axxle]

wtf i have been nothing but kind today why does everyone hate me.

I make lucid posts sometimes.

what the heck is this a response to?

[Axxle]

oh, nvm, CF ruined my ctrl-f search by using popZ instead of pops.

[Robz888]

So, I'd like to get the discussion going again. We are a little slumped here.

I had a thought. Galzria really jumped on me for my post accusing Glooble/Jo. He ended up saying I am the Serial Killer and voted for me. Then the Glooble/Jo are twin brothers reveal threw me off a bit, maybe that acquits them sort of, whatever.

I still think there are good reasons to be suspicious of Glooble and Jo independently. And also, Galzria's move calling me the SK bothered me ever so slightly.

Here's a thought: What if Galzria did that to cover for Glooble? (Galz/Jo can't be the mafia, I don't think, for public enmity reasons.) In which case, if I think Glooble/Jo and Glooble/Galz are possible mafia pairings, then killing Glooble would still be a good idea.

 

[Robz888]

FYI, I should mention that I will be posting less frequently this weekend. I am going whitewater rafting. I should be able to read through most new posts, and may comment/vote/respond here and there. But not a lot.

[Axxle]

What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense.  From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.

[Axxle]

Also:

I am going whitewater rafting.

Awesome!  I should also be going in a few months.

[Robz888]

What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense.  From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.

Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.

I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.

[Galzria]

What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense.  From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.

Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.

I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.

Hey, give me some time. Like I said, I'll post later tonight. I'm getting good and drunk first though. O has already said he would Policy Lynch me for post-blasting him, and though he's (one of) my strongest town reads, I still believe him.

[Glooble]

I've had a busy couple of days, but I should have some time tomorrow. Way too tired right now.

[Dsell]

This is (most likely) my last post before leaving on a week-long vacation.

I've read the recent posts so I'm familiar with the ideas swirling, obviously I see a bandwagon building on Galz. I have strong hesitations with each of these arguments. I don't see Galzria being as suspicious as all that and I have strong misgivings about being on a bandwagon with jo. Yes I know, the joke about him turning bandwagons sour has been swirling around, but yeah, I'm just seeing him as a whole lot more suspicious. I've already mentioned my issue with the Robz-as-Serial-Killer idea in a former post. I actually see some merits with voting pops and C_F. I get no read at all from either of them. With pops, I again think he's playing a different game from the rest of us. It looks to me like he's good at sounding like he knows what he's talking about but I can't really translate that into full-blown suspicion. Let me just say I'm wary. With C_F I think he's really good at suggesting, at making an impact without saying all that much. He hopped on Axxle's bandwagon early too.

The problem with those two is that they legitimately could be town, and if they are then I think they could be real assets. So I've decided that my vote will indeed remain on jotheonah. This is not intended to be an opt-out of this lynch, though. I actually hope that jotheonah gets some legitimate scrutiny while I'm gone.

Jo made several "mistakes" day 1 including claiming VT. It appeared that he didn't think people would really call him on it, and he tried to downplay it and say it wasn't a big deal. When his bandwagon grew he offered to self-vote but did not, instead going near silent until people were looking elsewhere.

He's said he's been playing more like O or TINAS (a player from Mafia I) this game. Those two players have been rather successful because of/despite their playstyle, and shared a town win in Mafia I. I believe that jo, as mafia, thought he could play the carefree part well and hoped he could convince the town not to vote for him. By getting people to believe he's VT, he can skate through the game under the radar: trusted by the town and not worth a night kill from the mafia. I don't want this to be a successful tactic. It's too dangerous, too good if it works.

But what if he is just town and really goofed up? Had to change his playstyle because his job doesn't give him the time to post the content he would like to. Well, then he's an extremely anti-town townie. By posting minimal content and hopping on just about every bandwagon, he's helping the mafia a lot more than the town. He's not really thinking for himself and he seems ok with that.

I think there's a lot more scummy behavior here than just that but I'm waking up in less than 4 hours so I'm gonna cut myself off. I think it makes a lot of sense to look again into jo's case and ask yourselves if you think he's really so bad that he'd accidentally reveal his only piece of solid knowledge-his role-on day 1. If nothing else, please do not just let him slip through every day and night riding his claim.

I'm returning the 23rd, and considering how very much reading I will have, I may not post until the 24th. Lynch the mafia!

[Captain_Frisk]

What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense.  From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.

Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.

I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.

Hey, give me some time. Like I said, I'll post later tonight. I'm getting good and drunk first though. O has already said he would Policy Lynch me for post-blasting him, and though he's (one of) my strongest town reads, I still believe him.

No post.  Lynch all liars!

[Galzria]

What you're talking about Robz is the Chainsaw Defense.  From what I've read it's only reliable if Glooble does end up being mafia.

Yeah, that's right. Galz was a little subtler, though, because he didn't say I'm mafia. He said I was SK. So maybe it's a little more sophisticated than simple Chainsaw. But yeah, my conclusion then would be to lynch Glooble I guess.

I don't know where other people stand. I am still pretty stuck on Glooble and Jo. I would not vote for SFS or Tables. Everybody else is more or less who knows.

Hey, give me some time. Like I said, I'll post later tonight. I'm getting good and drunk first though. O has already said he would Policy Lynch me for post-blasting him, and though he's (one of) my strongest town reads, I still believe him.

No post.  Lynch all liars!

Sorry boys, computer troubles when I got home last night, and I'd had too long a day / too much to drink to get it all straightened out.

Putting things together now.

[Galzria]

If galz mega posts, I'm voting for him as a policy lynch.

Alright, allow me to begin with this declaration:

I do not believe there is a Serial Killer, anymore than there might be a OSV, or straight Vig.

So what's with my "case" against Robz? O, I defer to you:

But if we can't be sure of lynching mafia, and we had a guaranteed SK lynch (we don't by any means), its inanely stupid to wander blindly into town lynch, 2x town kill again. We'd lynch the SK immediately first, since they're guaranteed to not be townie.

That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK

Bolded text mine.

So what the hell was I doing? Well, I was bored out of MY MIND. This game was going nowhere, very little information was flowing, and I decided it was worth playing a gambit, taking a risk, and stirring the pot (very dangerous as town, I know - but it was also very calculated). Robz's lengthy post provided me just the opportunity to do that. I knew I had to make my reasoning believable enough, and contain enough truth to bear credibility because I needed the Mafia to believe I was serious, even though I knew the town would (rightfully) play skeptically and luke-warm towards something that bold and wild. So without anymore wasted time..:

I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer.  This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.

There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).

I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.

If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.

Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):

If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia

By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

This is the post that I referred Frisk back to. The math on this (assuming no Doctor/Jailer save) is accurate. If the Mafia choose to let the SK/Vig live today (ie. not lynch him), and instead get a Pro-Town lynch, at WORST they are in a situation that is equivalent to a standard 9 player game. I argued the case from the standpoint of "If I am Mafia", but the conclusion holds true for "Any Mafia in this game".

The fact is, the Mafia would have *NO* reason to go after a suspected SK today. Not when killing him at night was such a juicy proposition. So I knew setting Robz up would not gain any traction. What I was hoping for, being a Townie myself, was to set myself up to be lynched - because that serves the goals of the Mafia perfectly. Lynch town, NK a possible SK, win/win.

With all that in mind, I made my case against Robz, and followed it up with the above quote, and sat back to watch carefully. So, let's look over all the reactions that came in:

----------

First, Jotheonah:

Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz

While this in *no way* clears him entirely in my book (his play as well as his votes have been WAY to erratic to put much stock in), it certainly pulls him more towards crazy townie for me. On the other hand, this response came before I put in the post laying out the math (shortly after which he flipped back to voting me again), so I still really don't know what the hell Jo is doing - Which is purely Anti-Town if he IS town.

----------

Second, Captain_Frisk:

Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz

Make up your mind!

Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.

RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.

I don't like either of these.  I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out.  Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair.  I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.

Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill.  Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.

Finally:

And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?

....snip....

100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.

Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer.  Would we want to lynch him as town?  Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night?  Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.

Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.

Very confused, not sure what to think, unwilling to commit or jump at anything response. Reads VERY strong town to me. I've had reads earlier in the game that suggested he might be otherwise, but D1 reads don't bear a lot of weight (See: Axxle1), and D2 C.F. has been much more genuine. Being nervous about my case, but not sure what to make of it was exactly the town response I was looking for. I doubt VERY much that C.F. could have or would have picked up on that and posted this as a bluff. Especially when you consider his responses and thoughts in later posts.

As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.

What's wrong with J?

I wasn't completely fair to you in my response to this. Nothing is wrong with Jo as a lynch target, except that at the time (and still), I'm really unsure about him. Rest assured, any future games of Mafia will include a Policy-Lynch rule from me regarding play like his. But we can't risk a Policy Lynch at this point, and there are probably better targets. As to why I switched things up at the time you asked this question, well, see above.

I should note here that I see and understand the concern regarding my "back-handed defenses" of Jo. I'm not sure what to do to ease these concerns. I fully believe and stand by my thoughts that he should be lynched for Crazy, but I can't bring myself to want to lynch someone strictly for playing Anti-Town. Anti-Town is not ALWAYS Mafia, nor is it ALWAYS Serial Killer. Sometimes Anti-Town is just... Anti-Town. And being down 3 Pro-Town players, I can't risk throwing my vote into a Policy Lynch at this time, when the result could be equally good OR bad for the town.

Vote: Galzria

Well, I wish there had been more here than just the vote C.F., but as enough time had elapsed, and by this point I'm sure you were/are just getting really nervous (as indicated in previous posts), I'm going on the assumption that you really just wanted to see where this would lead. I certainly (up to this point) have given very little follow up after my accusation posts, and what I did give was limited, short, and not very insightful/helpful. As stated previously, this was intentional. I had to gauge reaction, and needed to do so while keeping a very strong cool. Over-reacting was going to help the Mafia into lynching me with arguments I can't defend against (See: Jotheonah this entire game). Hope this addresses everything for you, as I DO believe you to be town.

----------

Third, Popsofctown:

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

Now here... here, we have something interesting. PopsofCtown, as noted by Dsell is seemingly playing a *very* different game than us. He's been arrogant and acted like he is "super-elite-mafia-pro". He has consistently said very little, given weak justifications, and always refers back to his "handy black book of tells" to belittle other's play, and as the end-all-discussion defense. He does the same schtick here, and I call him out on it. Let's look over the following exchange:

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

You sure talk a whole lot about having all the master tells down.

SK hunting is not inherently bad. If something jumps out, it's worth pointing out. Since I don't have much to go on against a possible Mafia (though that might change), I point out what I do see.

By the way, isn't refereeing a IIOA Mafia tell in your little black book? You do a damn awful lot of that.

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

Then pay close attention.

I try

In particular here, "The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds." is nothing but hedge, and it isn't the first time he's done it. In all honesty, there is SO much to go on here, I'm going to need to make another post after this to contain it all (going through his post history is just... enlightening. I encourage everybody to do so: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=426;area=showposts;start=0). For now, I'm going to stay on topic here.

Thing is, Pops saw exactly what I hoped Mafia would see. An opportunity at a "weak" case to get a town lynched, and follow up with a possible SK night kill. His point about "the preoccupation with Night Kills" is just ridiculous. Everybody here should be worried about night kills. Especially when (thus far) more people have died there than any other time of day. Pops has consistently done more than any other player to try and shape people's opinions and referee this game - Something he accuses Axxle of doing and being lynch worthy:

Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell.  So.

Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.

This vote is serious. 

Vote: Axxle

His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.

But enough on Pops for now - I'll post a follow up on just him later. Moving on...

----------

Fourth, Axxle2:

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

I hit 30 again? Yay!

Vote: Galz

Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said.  But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz.  You want to be the only leader in the town.  Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post.  I find that thinking disingenuous.

His first point, agree'ing with Pops, can't have much read into it. I've seen scum strategies where Mafia DO stick together during the day (being MUCH to obvious to be Mafia-partners), and I've seen sum strategies where Mafia actively dig at each other all game, but never actually vote for each other (See: M-II). So setting that aside, I looked closer at his second point, and honestly that is the most ridiculous argument I have ever seen.

"I get the feeling you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town".

First off, I don't see myself as a leader of the town at all. Second, if I had to choose somebody, it wouldn't be me (it would likely be O, for the record). Third, even if I DID feel that way, going out of my way to discredit somebody over their "strong-headed and confident" play would be the weakest of arguments that I could make. There's nothing game-related about it. Fourth, Robz and I have never butted heads about, well, anything really, and if I wanted to pick on anybody he would be my last target (despite his whining about not being able to read me, I think he would be the hardest to debate 1v1 of anybody here for me).

Still, I can't bring myself to make a case against Axxle 2 days in a row (which is why I hate replacement gaming), so my thoughts about his Mafia/Townishness will have to be checked for now. I'll conclude on his part by saying that I have no trouble seeing 2 Mafia getting on my bandwagon early, given the target that I presented in myself.

----------

Fifth (and lastly really), is Dsell:

The thing that struck me most about Robz' long post is no longer an original criticism, but still confused/bothered me a good bit. I didn't like that he dismissed the idea of a SK in favor of the assumption that it was a Vigilante kill. No one has claimed vig yet, so I think it's much too early to write off the possibility of a SK. Bad assumption, IMO.

Now Galz' reply is actually also very interesting (and also partially based on an assumption, but he admits it so it's cool) and reasoned quite well. He addresses those same issues I did above. It scares me to think that some of our heavyweights might be mafia. Both because they will have a lot of sway with the town and because I don't expect them to make many mistakes.

I really really want Robz to be town. D1, we had a lot of the same ideas. So far D2, well I'm not sure if I think the case against Glooble is quite as strong as he thinks it is but it's not too much of a stretch to envision a mafia partnership between Gloob and jo. Lynching one of them will obviously give us more insight into that idea. But back to my original point, I am more than willing to give Robz some grace here. I'm not convinced that he's either SK or mafia yet, but this idea does give Galzria a little more credibility in my mind. That said, I'm also not convinced by pops that SK hunting is a strong mafia tell. Not amongst newer players anyway.

Much like C.F., I got a town read from this. Not QUITE as strong, but still strong enough. The fact is that he:

a) Has picked up on much of Pops tells
b) Thought that my case was strong enough to garner consideration
c) Also doesn't like being stuck between deciding between Robz/Me as scum

All three lead me to believe that there is a genuine town feel here. Dsell has also been pushing strongly at Jotheonah, which I understand, but think is very much a townie not liking the Anti-Town play of Jo rather than a Mafia trying to get a crazy townie lynched for being crazy. So his read stands as town for me.

----------

The many others that I haven't mentioned:

Re: Robz - Sorry man. If I got myself lynched here without a defense, you would probably be the NK target (assuming you aren't Mafia yourself, which I doubt). You're absolutely right to be going crazy about my play and not being able to read it. Your quote in post #1501 really gave me a chuckle, because you were spot on - "As for Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. I can't read him at all. He makes mostly good arguments, some very bad arguments, and his votes are everywhere." It's just that the "bad arguments" were "bad" for a very good reason.

Re: O - O has had many opportunities to jump all over me for my comments about Robz. He has had the chance to come at me much of this game for things that I've said/done, and he consistently hasn't. He's given me the strongest town read in that, I actually think he saw this Gambit for exactly what it was. He may end up lynching me because of this post's length, but I understand his reasons. --- WITH THAT SAID --- If he is Mafia (and obviously I think there is at least 1 Mafia who hasn't voted for me yet), he has done a GREAT job of playing back, letting me get this town read on him, and then lynching me for this post. He would come off looking squeaky clean, even while off'ing a town. Don't let him get away with it!

Re: Glooble/Tables/SFS/Grujah - Well, none of you chimed in on any of this, so I really can't give much of a read. It is very likely that there is a Mafiosi hiding out amongst you (and possibly even 2, though I'm doubtful). I know that some of you have seen similar things as I have in Pops, but then, so have most players here (notably, not all though). What can I say? Grujah You need to come back from wherever you've gone. An official prod request hasn't been sent yet (I believe) because I don't think anybody here wants to have to consider another replacement, but your continued lack of presence is starting to weigh in.

To conclude:

Vote: Galzria

Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.

Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me.  If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah

C.F. - The reason I didn't do this sooner was that I felt I needed to wait and gauge as much reaction as I could. The post you quoted had been out for some time (and in fact, as soon as I made the statement, Axxle jumped ship) Your question was absolutely valid though, and as soon as I get my follow-up post on Pops, I'll be voting for him. For now, Unvote. You'll have to understand though that just randomly jumping ship after making that case against Robz - especially to someone else that has a few votes - while I'm picking up steam would look EXTREMELY scummy. There would be no more sure-fire way than that to get myself lynched on the spot.

Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...

so yea, less suspicious of him now.

I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.

As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)

Sorry Robz, I've got my reasons, and O (damn unreadable townie) might be onto them.

More to your point, your counter argument was "I just know. I've got a read I can't share, so you'll just have to trust me". I understand and agree completely that you shouldn't share your read if you have one. But I can't just take your word that you do.

It's a catch-22 for you in my eyes right now, and I recognize that (if it makes you feel better). The only way to clear your name would be to possibly incriminate yourself and/or someone else for entirely different reasons.

Robz, do you understand why now? I'm more inclined to believe that you got a Vig read (and really did NOT want to force your hand on that) than anything else. Obviously I was hanging you out to dry, but it seemed like the best way I could at getting things stirred up in here, and you presented the opportunity.

NOW, there is still a decent chance I get lynched here anyway. I recognized this as a risk when I made the initial post against Robz. For everything gained, it was a risk I was willing to take. Town Gambits don't usually pay off, but I feel like I've gained (and hopefully passed along) valuable reads and information for the town.

Pops post will come in this afternoon/evening - I've got very close friends coming over who are moving cross-country in 3 days, and need to spend some quality time with them.


Apologies for any bleeding eye-balls.

[Robz888]

Don't have much time--just skimmed your explanation--I will go over it again later. But via skimming, seemed to make sense. Thanks for posting, Galz.

[jotheonah]

Unvote

I was getting surer and surer you were mafia because your play was so not you. This suitably explains that disjunction.

It's possible that it's a Mafia master play/ brilliant damage control. But I think I know what that looks like. I choose to believe Galzria.

pops's "Don't vote for Robz you're being an idjit" is interesting to me suddenly. At the time it didn't register because I had a town read on him. But in my abortive reread he started looking scummy, especially if Galz really is town. Galz, looking forward to the pops post.

[popsofctown]

busy this weekend

[Axxle]

Wait, so your plan was to make a poor argument and then strongly suspect people who accuse you of making a poor argument?  An ass backwards plan if I ever saw one.  Did you not think that Robz stirred the pot enough with his post?  I think that it's much more likely that you expected some people to go along with it and took so long coming up with this post because you wanted to come up with a convincing backpedal.

[Axxle]

For all the Mafia knows, the SK might be bulletproof, why would they risk NK'ing him?

[jotheonah]

And Axxle2 comes back with some good points.  But actually that post makes more sense to me as gambitting town Galz then Mafia Galz. Mafia Galz is subtler.

[Axxle]

Galz, what parts of #1385 were genuine? Do you think he is actually the SK?

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote

Anyone savvy enough to craft such a fantastic town gambit is savvy enough to put forth a weak (bad?) argument and see if he could get another mislynch, with this "town gambit" excuse as a way to get out if things went south.

As for not giving reasons for my voting, I felt like the most likely suspects on the Axxlewagon were Galz and Pops.  I wanted to see the reaction from a unjustified vote, and the only person who cared was Axxle2.  I tend to think that my vote would be less questioned by mafia for an easily attacked point if it were on town, but I don't want to let Galz off the hook, and I still feel like he's semi - shielding J.

[Galzria]

Wait, so your plan was to make a poor argument and then strongly suspect people who accuse you of making a poor argument?  An ass backwards plan if I ever saw one.  Did you not think that Robz stirred the pot enough with his post?  I think that it's much more likely that you expected some people to go along with it and took so long coming up with this post because you wanted to come up with a convincing backpedal.

Then lynch me, look like a fool, and the Mafia you likely are.

They would risk NK'ing him even if he were bullet proof because if they fail, only 1 person dies that night (SK's target), which makes it look like there was a OSV (N1 when 2 targets died) instead of SK. Something they don't care about, but as a bonus, they now know who the SK is, as well as that the SK is bullet-proof.

There are 12 of us left. In a worst case scenario for Mafia, after a Pro-Town D2 lynch, 1 Mafia dies to SK at night, leaving:

1 SK (known now to the Mafia, and known to be bullet-proof)
2 Mafia
7 Town

Not exactly a disadvantagous spot for the Mafia to be in. If instead of hitting Mafia the SK had hit town, it would be even better.

As to your next question about if I think Robz is a SK - No.

[jotheonah]

Galzria, I would humbly suggest that giving Axxle a pass because you don't want to lynch the same player two days in a row is dumb.  You have to play slots, not people. That was a null slot Day 1 because Green Opal posted too little to get a good read. Day 2 it's an increasingly scummier slot.

I'm not saying Lynch Axxle. I'm just saying, don't avoid lynching Axxle just because he's Axxle if you think he's the most likely mafia.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-10

Captain_Frisk (1): O
popsofctown (1): Tables
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Axxle
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (1): Dsell

Not voting {6}: Glooble, Grujah, Robz888, Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[Grujah]

Guys, sorry for not responding almost at all day 2. Should be more free from monday onwards, its was finals week.

[Tables]

Okay, well, that was an interesting post from Galz. I'm definitely undecided on it being the town gamit Galz claims, or a mafia bluff. It's certainly clever enough for Mafia Galz. As for the points he makes, if he's telling the truth it all makes sense, I don't see any major problems with the claim. Looking back at the initial posts though... ehh. I'm not entirely convinced. And while Axxle2's strawmanned the analysis you did, his point does also kinda ring true.

That said, Galz did very explicitly claim Townie. And that's really thrown me. Why? What was to gain from it? That post was very explicitly well thought out, so there must have been something you want from it?

As an aside if it's true though... we've had two townies, a Village Idiot dead and two more Townies, and a one-shot cop alive. Of course, there's a number of other unconfirmed roles too, but would 2 mafia plus a SK make sense considering that? Remember the setup is balanced depending on number of roles.

[jotheonah]

I don't think Galz claimed vanilla, just town. And a town claim is implicit from everyone anyway.

[Tables]

He claimed 'Townie'. Townie is the name most commonly used to refer to a town player with no role. He claimed to be Vanilla Town, or Blue, or a Villager, or whatever else you like to call it.

[Tables]

Edit: And he put it in bold, just to emphasise the point he was a generic townie.

[jotheonah]

I don't read it as a role claim, just an alignment claim. Galz can clarify.

[Galzria]

I don't read it as a role claim, just an alignment claim. Galz can clarify.

J has the right of intent in this case. The statement came in a paragraph where I was talking about how the Mafia would see me. Knowing I'm not one of them, they know I'm a Townie. It was a faction claim, not a role claim.

I'm not confirming or denying anything beyond that, and any speculation is done entirely at your own risk.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Edit: And he put it in bold, just to emphasise the point he was a generic townie.

I don't see how boldface means generic therefore vanilla. In my (RL) lexicon, Townie means local, but some of the towniest people I've ever known held community/professional roles that society typically describes as powerful:  doctors, etc.

This is such an incredibly confident proscription that it stands out like a sore thumb to me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Can someone respond to my first inquiry (addressed to "All except O) in post #1503 so that I can decide on whether to press O on the issue I raised.

In the case that simply providing me with a hypothetical could be damaging, I'll accept that, but I'd like to hear from more than one person.

[jotheonah]

@SFS Basically, the mafia already know everyone's alignment (except the SK's). But they don't know roles. So role reveals are bad because they give the mafia more information. Rolefishing is similarly bad, and also looks scummy, because the mafia are the ones who want to know who has roles (so they can kill them).

[Captain_Frisk]

...Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.

Emphasis mine.
I actually laughed out loud, so thanks for that, and for making the game (suddenly) a lot more enjoyable.

That being said, I like Robz's case against Glooble, and you clearly don't.  You also clearly cannot tell whose lying and who isn't. The intersection of those two sets worries me.  So does your disclaimer early in the quoted post (which I unfortunately deleted for the sake of brevity), where you say "Now, more out of boredom/desire debate then real disagreement (I haven't settled on your case yet), I'll ask you some questions" yet the post itself is pretty strong evidence that you DO disagree AND YOU ASKED NO QUESTIONS! (Yes, I know the last point ended in a question mark, but the words failed to pose a question.)

VOTE: 0 (aka .)

....I stopped after Pops said rolehunting was a terrible idea, but if you really are going to vote for me I'll explicity explain myself, which is nearly certainly not good for town.

Well, I want to be fair, and not affect the outcome of the game any more than I already have (I guess now I'm glad I voted for the discussion thread, cause I'm probably enormously entertaining there) so:

@All other than O - Can someone give me an example (or a hypothetical) of a situation where a player responding to thoughts such as mine in the quoted post be bad for the town?  For extra credit, confirm (or make me doubt) my thinking that offering but deferring a response because it 'would not be good for the town' is just as likely a mafia thing to say as a town thing to say.

Per your recent request.

Hypothetical situation:  You are the town role cop.  You investigate someone who acts suspicious.  Let's call this random person "Morgrim7".  Morgrim7 comes back as "Doctor".

Unless you or Morgrim7 are about to be lynched, you should keep your mouth shut. 

This is why everyone is mad at you about poor town play.  By claiming One Shot Cop, you've helped the mafia clarify what roles are in the game.

[Tables]

Galz: Okay. Townie is almost always used as the name of the generic powerless town role, though, in my experience, and putting it in bold definitely seemed to suggest you wanted extra emphasis on the point. And saying townie instead of town as well. It didn't even cross my mind that it might just be you saying you were town until Joth pointed it out :-/.

SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?

[popsofctown]

Galzria, the issue with town gambits is that you're lying.  You either lied then or are lying now, because you didn't believe in your Robz case.  That triggers a broad range of psychological effects that read scummily.  So you're left with no one to blame but yourself if you get lynched - you've essentially sent yourself a scum pm instead of a town one and then played the game.

Don't do it again.

Green Opal was scummier than null D1.  Axxle2 has been forgettable.  Galz and Axxle2 are both scummy to me, but definitely in separate prisms.  I CAN read Galzria's post as marvelous scum damage control.  I can read it the other way too.  "I'm probably going to get lynched for making a long post" is so survivalist it's irritating, and "we should all care about nightkills, it's how people die" seems like a very reachy way to nullify my concern - nightkills are how 2/3s of players have died so far, but we have a 1/50th as much of control over those deaths. It also seems over defensive because the cooky fake case on Robz story could cover it anyway.  "I was preoccupied with NKs because I was SK hunting but the SK hunting was fake haha gotcha."

Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me.  I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.

[Galzria]

Aww, look at Pops come out and play "Mr. Mafia" again. It's almost cute.

By the way, I didn't say I would get lynched for making a long post, O did. Nice try however.

[jotheonah]

more convinced than ever that one of you is mafia. just gotta figure out which one.

rest of the town?

pops, hedging is when you post in such a way that no matter how someone flips you can point to your post and say "I did/didn't think he was scum" so you always seem right.

[popsofctown]

i see, a survivalist tell.

I think I've heard it called "fence sitting", but am usually skeptical because it can be townie indecision.

Of course it always depends on context and perspective.  It depends whether the purpose seems to be preservation or not.

[Glooble]

more convinced than ever that one of you is mafia. just gotta figure out which one.

You mean Galz and pops?

[Captain_Frisk]

more convinced than ever that one of you is mafia. just gotta figure out which one.

You mean Galz and pops?

What is your read on the situation glooble?

[Galzria]

Should I write up my post on Pops tonight, or wait to give the town time to respond/chime in without feeling pressured/influenced?

There is plenty to dissect without my adding more at this point, and I think Pops actions thusfar have spoken for themselves without my added input. Still, I'll be happy to present tonight if desired.

[Captain_Frisk]

Should I write up my post on Pops tonight, or wait to give the town time to respond/chime in without feeling pressured/influenced?

There is plenty to dissect without my adding more at this point, and I think Pops actions thusfar have spoken for themselves without my added input. Still, I'll be happy to present tonight if desired.

I want you to post it just so I can read something in this dead dead thread. 

That said, I'd prefer (unlikely) to see everyone weigh in before the (seemingly inevitable) epic Galz / Pops showdown.

[Galzria]

Should I write up my post on Pops tonight, or wait to give the town time to respond/chime in without feeling pressured/influenced?

There is plenty to dissect without my adding more at this point, and I think Pops actions thusfar have spoken for themselves without my added input. Still, I'll be happy to present tonight if desired.

I want you to post it just so I can read something in this dead dead thread. 

That said, I'd prefer (unlikely) to see everyone weigh in before the (seemingly inevitable) epic Galz / Pops showdown.

I'm sad how dead it's been. I too would rather wait, but I don't want to be accused of pandering to the crowd. Ahh... Well, I won't be able to until late, so maybe we'll hear from more people before then.

[Glooble]

I don't like the idea of putting forth a theory that you know is wrong just to gauge reactions. But I can see TownGalz liking it, especially if he felt like the day was going no where. Generating discussion is good. Lying as town is bad, it makes it harder to trust you, but it's necessary at times (for instance, if you're a power role trying to get the Mafia off your scent.) I don't think "nothing interesting is happening" justifies that behavior, but it doesn't seem scummy to me.

I'm not sure about Galz's post as "Mafia back-peddling" though. It just doesn't seem like Galz's style to back down from a claim with an elaborate excuse with four votes on him. I'd expect him to stick to his guns and defend his stance. I currently find it slightly more believable that Galz is town and made a questionable play. But I am suspicious.

Pops is tough to figure out. At first his terse style seemed very scummy to me, like he was bullying people out of arguing with him with his condescending comments, but as day 1 went on I started to trust him. Now I'm unsure. The less you say, the harder it is to catch you in a lie, so talking in sound bites makes a lot of sense for scum. So does setting yourself up as an authority on all things mafia. Pops has given explanations for these things, but I await Galz's post with great interest.

[Galzria]

Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.

[popsofctown]

I explained why I posted in sound bites early on - so people like Green Opal, who did eventually replaced out, could stay caught up with the game.  Now I don't post much because I'm a bit lost as far as who is scum.

I'd prefer "opinionated" over authoritarian. 

I await Galzria's case I guess.  I just hope he doesn't use that "he's scum, that's why he said he's today's most likely lynch" line.  Would be a bit ironic.

[Tables]

I believe I stated my opinions on the last page. I'm honestly left unsure about you, Galz. I wouldn't be surprised if you and Pops are bussing each other, either. You're both very experienced players, you both have very different views and one getting the other lynched would look very town. But I also expect you'd both know such a conclusion would be suggested, and so the WIFOM starts.

Pops recent posts also happen to have done something towards convincing me of my suspicions. Town lying is perfectly legitimate, and can work. Like many reasons for policy lynching, 'lynch all liars' is a good way for a community to stop creative play and hinder the towns chances in difficult games. And his recent post, uhh... I'm really struggling to see that as a reason that can be taken seriously, even if it was posted earlier. Short posts don't tell us much, they don't let you do analysis, they intentionally limit the amount you're saying in the game and thus limit the amount of information flowing in the game. Now tell me, who would want to do that, mafia or town? Hmm. And your justification is that it lets a small number of players stay caught up. Which doesn't really work once we hit a point where posts are made at a rate of like a hundred per day. It just means they have one less person's posts to read.

[jotheonah]

I can't buy a bus right now. You see a bus when mafia is losing or when someone already has pressure on them. Neither pops nor Galz was in enough hot water that a winning mafia team would go straight for the bus, with so many better options.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?

I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.

[Tables]

Clearly Joth is the 3rd member of the mafia team.

Jokes aside, I can see your poin

I can't buy a bus right now. You see a bus when mafia is losing or when someone already has pressure on them. Neither pops nor Galz was in enough hot water that a winning mafia team would go straight for the bus, with so many better options.

Bussing isn't just when a team is losing. An early bus can work, but actually, with a potential SK, unless the mafia is 4 man, it's pretty unlikely. If it is a 4 man mafia though, it could happen.

[Tables]

Er, that was interesting. The first part of the message was supposed to come after the quote. In fact, it wasn't meant to be there at all. But whatever. I can see the point Joth made.

[O]

Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.

Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.

[Galzria]

Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.

Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.

No problem. You, Robz, and many others. Enjoy!

I'll post it when I get home this evening.

[Captain_Frisk]

...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?

I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.

Sfs, you felt it was important to respond to this, bu nothing on the matter of pops v. Galzria? 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?

I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.

Sfs, you felt it was important to respond to this, bu nothing on the matter of pops v. Galzria?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...SFS: Are you seriously going to suggest that someone using common terminology in a non-standard way getting interpreted in the common way, when they can very easily correct it, is something to be suspicious of?

I just thought it was so...strident (emphatic? definitive?) as to imply a mindset that might have been instructive.

Sfs, you felt it was important to respond to this, bu nothing on the matter of pops v. Galzria?

Sorry for the misclick on #1591 that resulted in no post.

Go ahead and post the analysis, Galzria, I'd like to see what you have to say about Pops.

[jotheonah]

Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.

Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.

No problem. You, Robz, and many others. Enjoy!

I'll post it when I get home this evening.

More lies. Man how did this forum get so dead?

[Captain_Frisk]

Alright, I've written up the post RE: Pops, and just have to paste it in now, but seeing as I've only heard from Glooble and C.F. I'm going to hold off on putting out to give others a chance to talk. SFS, Grujah, Tables, Robz, O, and Dsell - I would like to hear from you guys. We have 12 people involved. I don't want this to be dominated by 3 or 4.

Go ahead and post it, but I'm unfortunately basically V/LA for the next few days.

No problem. You, Robz, and many others. Enjoy!

I'll post it when I get home this evening.

More lies. Man how did this forum get so dead?

Fathers day weekend?  Galzria is a liar though

[popsofctown]

My father is out of town attending a funeral today.  Not sure whether to say Happy Father's day or skip it :/

[Tables]

Not sure how to follow up Pop's post without looking either insensitive or being awkward, so I'll just go for potentially insensitive.

We need more discussion. Things are far too quiet right now and that's only good for the mafia.

Right now I think the big things to discuss are (and add to this if I've missed any):

Galzria's claim over his Robz post
Galzria's accusation of Pops
Robz post back a few days ago
Yesterday's bandwagon on Axxle

I'd also add we can still talk about Joth, and other bandwagons and suspicions today.

[O]

Once Mafia III ends and/or I return home I promise you conversation will pick up again  .

It's nice to see proof that you all badly need me. 

[Captain_Frisk]

All right, I got fed up of waiting to see who was AFK, etc, and I got angry at how hard it was to find a link to everyone's profile.  So that I don't need to do it again, and you won't need to ever:

O: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=831
Tables: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=229
Popsofctown: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=426
Axxle: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=604
SFS: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=532
Glooble: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=99
Grujah: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1014
Robz888: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=510
Galzria: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=959
jotheonah: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=561
Captain_Frisk: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=324

[Captain_Frisk]

And now - the lurkers:

Tables and Grujah have been away since 6/17.  Everyone else has signed in today.  Quit lurking and say something.

@Galzria - Where is the pops analysis?

[jotheonah]

Is there something we can learn from the silence itself? Or are the mafia being silent because all three of the viable wagons (Myself, Galzria, and pops) are in fact town? So they're content to sit back and see what happens?

Or is everyone just wrapped up in IRL stuff that has nothing to do with the game?

[jotheonah]

Also, for the record, I'm perpetually signed in on two different computers. Just because my profile says I'm logged in doesn't mean I'm around or paying attention.

[Axxle]

Galzria's claim over his Robz post

I've expressed my thoughts on this already. I want to hear Galzria's true thoughts about Robz's post.

Galzria's accusation of Pops

I'm interested to see his analysis.  I feel that Pops's reaction to Galzria's claim over Robz's post is justified though.

Robz post back a few days ago

You mean about Glooble? I find it interesting how Galzria's post on Robz completely took discussion away from Glooble.  I have had a decently scummy vibe coming from Glooble in general.

Yesterday's bandwagon on Axxle1

I think it felt justified.

[Axxle]

Is there something we can learn from the silence itself? Or are the mafia being silent because all three of the viable wagons (Myself, Galzria, and pops) are in fact town? So they're content to sit back and see what happens?

Or is everyone just wrapped up in IRL stuff that has nothing to do with the game?

I had a lot of IRL things happening the last few days, and when I was able to log in there were other games that took slightly more precedent.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, for the record, I'm perpetually signed in on two different computers. Just because my profile says I'm logged in doesn't mean I'm around or paying attention.

I assumed that "last active" still involved interaction in some way - refreshing etc, vs. just having a computer with the browser open.

[popsofctown]

Waiting on Galz's post.  I want to refine my read on him more than any other progress in the game.

[Captain_Frisk]

Waiting on Galz's post.  I want to refine my read on him more than any other progress in the game.

No pre-emptive counter claims?  What is your thought on his original mega post?

[popsofctown]

It was scummy, but not damning.  I think I might have a different view of him than everyone else because he's claiming to have drawn the conclusion that I'm scum from his gambit, something I know is false. 

[Captain_Frisk]

It was scummy, but not damning.  I think I might have a different view of him than everyone else because he's claiming to have drawn the conclusion that I'm scum from his gambit, something I know is false.

Do you have any other candidates to discuss while we wait for G-money?

[jotheonah]

Galzria has admitted to being disingenuous. He said he did it for the sake of the town and because very little was happening, and it seemed worth it to get information.  But here we are, post-gambit, in the same position - very little is happening. I think the onus is now on Galzria to prove to us that his sketchy gambit was worth it; that it has given us actionable info and a worthy lynch target.  If it hasn't, we should think hard about lynching Galzria, who we no longer feel we can trust.

[jotheonah]

Actually, Volt, it's been 47 hours since Galz posted. Can we get a prod?

[Captain_Frisk]

Actually, Volt, it's been 47 hours since Galz posted. Can we get a prod?

Thats at least 43 hours longer than he's ever gone before.

[Robz888]

Actually, Volt, it's been 47 hours since Galz posted. Can we get a prod?

Thats at least 43 hours longer than he's ever gone before.

Forget the prod, call the police/ambulance/media!

Also, I'm back.

[popsofctown]

I dislike Joth pushing the Galzorpopsisscum every post

[jotheonah]

You're literally the only two people I have a scumread on.  And Grujah, but what is there to talk about there? He's a lurker.

Then again, my reads are terrible.

[Captain_Frisk]

I dislike Joth pushing the Galzorpopsisscum every post

I dislike Joth.

If Joth is Mafia, this implies that either Glooble can't read his twin brother, or is also Mafia.  I'm not sure where the line is drawn on what types of claims are considered poor form, but I think I'd be angry if Glooble used that (as Mafia) to get his brother (also Mafia) off the lynching block.  Right now I'm inclined to lynch pops or Galzria, and if we have mislynched - then lynch the other tomorrow, while simultaneously praying to Justin Bieber that some power roles do some good overnight.

[jotheonah]

Everyone hates me, yet nobody votes me. If I were scum, I would be so freaking smug right now.

[Robz888]

I don't hate you, Jo. But I do vote for you.

However, I think I am still more inclined to vote Glooble.

[Axxle]

1 - Galzria: Arguably very useful town, or incredibly dangerous mafia.  I'm leaning towards the latter.
2 - Dsell: No read. Slight town.
4 - Robz888: Seems like solid town Robz.
5 - Captain_Frisk: No read. Slight town.
6 - O: always hard to get a read.
9 - Glooble: felt something strange coming from him all game.  Probably the evil twin.  I think lynching him would give us a good amount of information regarding Jo, Robz, and Galzria. Decent scum.
10 - popsofctown: bit of an oddball, similar to Galz except he's not as great an asset either way.
11 - Tables: No read. Slight town
12 - Grujah: Not lurking so much as absent. Slight scum due to voting habits.
13 - jotheonah: Randomness in the beginning was offputting.  And he keeps talking about how his randomness at the beginning is digging him deeper and deeper in a hole and how he'd be a terrible mafia if he was.  I'm wary of him.  Slight scum.
14 - SwitchedFromStarcraft: Townman!  With the super power of super towniness!
15 - Axxle2 (replaced Green Opal): Hi.

[Glooble]

I'm willing to admit the possibility that jo is so good he's played even me, but right now I'm not finding that to be one of my top scenarios.

I'm waiting to hear Galz's megapost. Even if one of Galz or pops is Mafia, though, there are still probably two more scum out there, maybe even three (if we have a Witch rather than a woodcutter/militia.) So there should definitely be more to discuss.

Now the next candidate after those three seems to be me. I can't really say much to that, except that I know that I'm not scum, and there isn't really enough pressure on me at the moment for me to feel like an impassioned defense of myself is the best use of everyone's time. Instead I'm going to hunt around for a better fourth candidate, because at least then maybe the town will have something to talk about.

Now it occurs to me that many of the arguments for jo being scum are also applicable to another player: O. He's been staying "active" (i.e. not lurking) with posting very many original suspicions or in depth analysis. His posts have been extremely reactive, and full of humor. Early on he was drawing some fire, but then jo started acting even crazier and we all sort of forgot about him. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on.

I was getting a slightly suspicious read from Axxle2, but I couldn't put my finger on it, so I went back and read his day 2 posts. I find I can't really fault him for voting for Galz for acting scummy when Galz was acting scummy, whether as part of a town gambit or not. So I got to this post:

I keep thinking about Galz and why he isn't dead.  I come up with 3 different reasons:

1) He's mafia.
2) Mafia think we'll lynch him because he spearheaded the Axxle1 case and was wrong.
3) Mafia think he'll spearhead another case and be wrong.
4) Mafia thought he'd be protected

I think that Galz's reasons for lynching Axxle1 were much too strong to be clearly malicious. And look how much the town has just written him off. Only J is really pushing Galz's case at the moment (and badly). So point 2 is very unlikely.
For the purposes of this thought experiment I'll assume point 1 is false too:
If 3 is correct, then maybe mafia haven't been that closely followed by Galz or they think they know the type of player Galz is going to try to lynch.  I think we should focus on lurkers since Galz seems to consider them an afterthought, as much of us do.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
Not sure where that gets me. 

Well, that's my conspiracy theory of the evening.  Good night.

This comes off as a bit scummy to me, when combined with his quick hop on the Galz wagon after Galz's SK post, and the fact that as soon as Robz and others started expressing suspicions about me, he started expressing them to. His logic in this post is fuzzy. I don't know why he writes off option 2 - yes, at that point in the day, the town had weirdly exonerated Galz, but that was weird! Galz himself thought it was weird! How would the mafia have guessed that would happen?

This just kind of looks like the kind of "Analysis" someone would post if they already knew who the scum were and were trying to find something to say. It doesn't get the town anywhere. Plus he starts setting up to exonerate me, then immediately starts saying I look suspicious once it's clear that Robz thinks me likely to be scum.

Hopefully this starts some people talking. I'm waiting to hear back on Galz and pops, but I'm a little suspicious of O, still a little suspicious of jo, and a little more than a little suspicious of Axxle2.

[popsofctown]

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt. 

[jotheonah]

in this town?

[Axxle]

I'm willing to admit the possibility that jo is so good he's played even me, but right now I'm not finding that to be one of my top scenarios.

I'm waiting to hear Galz's megapost. Even if one of Galz or pops is Mafia, though, there are still probably two more scum out there, maybe even three (if we have a Witch rather than a woodcutter/militia.) So there should definitely be more to discuss.

Now the next candidate after those three seems to be me. I can't really say much to that, except that I know that I'm not scum, and there isn't really enough pressure on me at the moment for me to feel like an impassioned defense of myself is the best use of everyone's time. Instead I'm going to hunt around for a better fourth candidate, because at least then maybe the town will have something to talk about.

Now it occurs to me that many of the arguments for jo being scum are also applicable to another player: O. He's been staying "active" (i.e. not lurking) with posting very many original suspicions or in depth analysis. His posts have been extremely reactive, and full of humor. Early on he was drawing some fire, but then jo started acting even crazier and we all sort of forgot about him. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on.

I was getting a slightly suspicious read from Axxle2, but I couldn't put my finger on it, so I went back and read his day 2 posts. I find I can't really fault him for voting for Galz for acting scummy when Galz was acting scummy, whether as part of a town gambit or not. So I got to this post:

I keep thinking about Galz and why he isn't dead.  I come up with 3 different reasons:

1) He's mafia.
2) Mafia think we'll lynch him because he spearheaded the Axxle1 case and was wrong.
3) Mafia think he'll spearhead another case and be wrong.
4) Mafia thought he'd be protected

I think that Galz's reasons for lynching Axxle1 were much too strong to be clearly malicious. And look how much the town has just written him off. Only J is really pushing Galz's case at the moment (and badly). So point 2 is very unlikely.
For the purposes of this thought experiment I'll assume point 1 is false too:
If 3 is correct, then maybe mafia haven't been that closely followed by Galz or they think they know the type of player Galz is going to try to lynch.  I think we should focus on lurkers since Galz seems to consider them an afterthought, as much of us do.
If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.
Not sure where that gets me. 

Well, that's my conspiracy theory of the evening.  Good night.

This comes off as a bit scummy to me, when combined with his quick hop on the Galz wagon after Galz's SK post, and the fact that as soon as Robz and others started expressing suspicions about me, he started expressing them to. His logic in this post is fuzzy. I don't know why he writes off option 2 - yes, at that point in the day, the town had weirdly exonerated Galz, but that was weird! Galz himself thought it was weird! How would the mafia have guessed that would happen?

This just kind of looks like the kind of "Analysis" someone would post if they already knew who the scum were and were trying to find something to say. It doesn't get the town anywhere. Plus he starts setting up to exonerate me, then immediately starts saying I look suspicious once it's clear that Robz thinks me likely to be scum.

Hopefully this starts some people talking. I'm waiting to hear back on Galz and pops, but I'm a little suspicious of O, still a little suspicious of jo, and a little more than a little suspicious of Axxle2.

I was not writing off any of the points.  I was just discussing what ifs.  I thought I was pretty clear:

If 3 is correct, I don't think mafia would change their playstyles very much, so I would doubt that Robz, Glooble or Tables are mafia.

3 is not correct if Galz is mafia.

I wrote off 2 because almost no one questioned Galz's intentions from the lynch yesterday (at least that I can recall, and my recollection is admittedly very fuzzy, e.g. a few posts above that quote I forgot Theorel was dead).  I would think that mafia would at least push the town towards it a bit.

This is a very slow mafia day, even on the 12th were were struggling to find things to talk about.

[Axxle]

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

I try to contribute and I'm scum.  People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.

[Glooble]

I'm trying to.

[Axxle]

I'm trying to.

Sorry, you are, thanks.  There are many other players though.

[popsofctown]

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

I try to contribute and I'm scum.  People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.

Scum try to contribute.  Townies contribute.

Not that I've contributed much lately myself, but I hope you get my point.

[Tables]

I'm only getting on once every day or so, and I'm still managing to contribute more than many people.

I had an interesting dream last night. It basically concluded with me noticing everyone thought someone (it was either Glooble or Grujah) was suspicious, and hence I concluded he was likely town - as if everyone is suspicious of someone, that includes the mafia. Of course, this a gross simplification of the truth, but it's certainly something to be aware of. If everyone is suspicious of someone, then why? Why are the mafia stating they're suspicious too. But also why is EVERYONE saying they're suspicious and not voting?

Anyway back to reality, I'm getting more suspicious of Joth again, now I've noticed just how single track minded he seems to be of Galz and Pops, but yet doesn't seem to give much in the way of reasoning. And if he's scum, then him wanting us to discuss those two would probably be because they're town, right?

I think considering the amount of information we could gain from it, and considering as well the original reasons I gave for finding him suspicious (his rapid change in behaviour when someone pointed out what he'd done) and his now general lack of original analysis, that I'm going to Vote: Joth.

[popsofctown]

but twins :/

[jotheonah]

I'm not opposed to my own lynch, per se, at this point. I feel like I've screwed up enough at this point and become enough of a distraction that as town lynches go I'm one of the better ones. I won't shed any tears over myself.

That said, any scum lynch is preferable to any town lynch, so as I yet live I will continue to point my finger in what I consider to be the most likely scum directions.

[Captain_Frisk]

but twins :/

There is always an evil twin

[Robz888]

I'm not opposed to my own lynch, per se, at this point. I feel like I've screwed up enough at this point and become enough of a distraction that as town lynches go I'm one of the better ones. I won't shed any tears over myself.

That said, any scum lynch is preferable to any town lynch, so as I yet live I will continue to point my finger in what I consider to be the most likely scum directions.

Every time Jo speaks, he makes me suspicious. I just find his tone ridiculous. Ridiculously scummy. "Please kill me, it's fine, I deserve it. Oh, you actually want to kill me? I accuse you/anyone." And he is so very, very, very, very, very different from in MII.

He sees like he is trying to sound like he is okay with dying, but is actually very, very far from it.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-11

Captain_Frisk (1): O
Galzria (2): popsofctown, Axxle
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (2): Dsell, Tables

Not voting {6}: Glooble, Grujah, Robz888, Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Voltgloss]

I received a PM from Galzria at around 4:40 pm today (EDT) that I think he meant to post directly in the thread, regarding his recent absence.  (Indicating that he will be posting by tomorrow at the latest)  I've PM'd him back to confirm.

[Axxle]

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

That's still the deadline, correct?

[Voltgloss]

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

That's still the deadline, correct?

Yes.  I've added to the vote count.

[Robz888]

The lack of action in this thread is very, very sad.

[Captain_Frisk]

The lack of action in this thread is very, very sad.

Axxle and O upvoted this, but couldn't be bothered to step in and comment something?

[popsofctown]

Why wouldn't townGalzria paste in his pops case if he had enough time to pm the mod why he was absent?

[Tables]

Why is everyone waiting on Galz? It's one person's opinion, who we don't know if they're town or not, talking about someone we don't know is town or not.

Seriously, does nobody have anything they want to discuss? I'm pretty much out of things I want to talk about.

[Robz888]

If nobody has anything to talk about--no idea which direction to head--well, I do. Really, we should lynch Glooble or Jotheonah. Discuss.

[Captain_Frisk]

If nobody has anything to talk about--no idea which direction to head--well, I do. Really, we should lynch Glooble or Jotheonah. Discuss.

Interesting, I was going to suggest that we lynch Galz or Pops.  Galz for reasons discussed previously, as well as policy lynching players who don't post.

Pops, for being able to write well: (e.g. http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=872.msg13042#msg13042), but choosing to be a massive PITA in this game instead.

[jotheonah]

I think Grujah's still a good candidate. When in doubt, lynch a lurker, right? At least pops and I post. If you think this thread is dead now, imagine it once you kill us.

[Robz888]

Somebody said that Grujah was a mislynch waiting to happen, and I really agree with that.

I don't agree with everything Galzria and Pops do, and I understand the frustration with them. At the end of the day, though, Jo and Glooble have to be the most likely mafia candidates (perhaps not together, but rather one or the other).

Yesterday I wanted Jo to die. Today I lean toward Glooble.

[popsofctown]

lynch mafia not scum.

I just don't see Joth being scum.  If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too.  If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong.  Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today.  I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum. 

[jotheonah]

Hey pops, how do you feel about a pops lynch today?

[popsofctown]

Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice. 

Joth - I think it'd be a step in the wrong direction

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice. 

Joth - I think it'd be a step in the wrong direction

So - yesterday you accuse Axxle of being scum... I didn't see alot of reasoning for it.  Then - you tell me that I should lynch mafia, not scum.  Can you help me identify mafia + scummy play, vs. just normal scummy play?

[Robz888]

Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE

Would you care to re-iterate the case?  I went back and read glooble's (not very frequent posts), and didn't see anything that struck me as out of place, other than a few remarks that seemingly didn't acknowledge the (alleged) RL relationship between him and J.

The gist of the argument against him that I seem to remember was:

- bandwagoned late
- didn't post much in the way of original analysis

[popsofctown]

oh, that.

The adage means, "lynch mafia, not jerks".  scum as in scumbag human.

[Robz888]

Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE

Would you care to re-iterate the case?  I went back and read glooble's (not very frequent posts), and didn't see anything that struck me as out of place, other than a few remarks that seemingly didn't acknowledge the (alleged) RL relationship between him and J.

The gist of the argument against him that I seem to remember was:

- bandwagoned late
- didn't post much in the way of original analysis

How dare you not remember every word of every argument I've made! Fine. Hold on.

(As evidence that this day has dragged on far too long, I submit that I am starting to succumb to the use of humor/sarcasm. Garrr...)

[jotheonah]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

[Captain_Frisk]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

He is playing mafia at a different level than us.

[Robz888]

My case against Glooble:

I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)

As I've said recently, this is a hunch based on the fact that I have a good idea of who the Vigilante is.

The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.

Here is what Glooble says about it:

So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.

Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)

Gloobe begins defending Jo, who I believe is his mafia co-hort. Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died? It makes little sense. And of course Thoerel is NOT more likely the scum kill, for the reasons I outlined. So it looks to me like Gloobe is either really wrong, or he’s trying to suggest the opposite of the truth, deliberately.

He continues:

Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.

Getting Galz on your side is of course a terrific mafia move. And one Jo is incapable of making at this point.

So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.

In other words, if we kill Jo, and he flips mafia--and Glooble knows he will--Glooble is suggesting that we don’t look at the Axxle voters for more mafia. Gloobe, coincidentally was an Axxle voter.

If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.

But if we DO look at Axxle voters other than Jo, he says we should look at Grujah... The easiest person to pin as mafia, by a mile.

For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.

If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.

I don’t like this for the record at all. He’s really trying to have it every which way in this post. Glooble doesn’t think Jo is mafia. But if we kill him and he is mafia, we shouldn’t suspect the other Axxle voters. And if we do suspect the other Axxle voters, we should suspect Grujah. All underlined by faulty logic about which nightkill was the scum kill.

Then, he tries to draw suspicion on SFS--the only living person in this game that we can be sure, beyond any reasonable doubt, is town.

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

Look, I understand in theory why SFS’s move could make sense for scum. But that’s not the case. SFS is clearly exactly what he said, didn’t think it out entirely, maybe.... but there’s no reason to disbelieve this claim. Pops is absolutely right that SFS is “obvtown.” Anyone who says otherwise needs to think about it very carefully.

To summarize:

Yes, everything Gloobe said was incorrect, weird accusals, odd defenses of jo, direction away from Axxle voters, etc. Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia. Look, he’s making mistakes either way. But I have a much easier time believing that he’s a mafia member who is doing things that make sense from a mafia perspective (un-subtle and suspicious looking though they are), than he is an incompetent townie.

[Galzria]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

Working out the post now with modifications to include new posts since my absence. Intro explains where I was, but in short (so I can get back to setting everything straight), work ran late Friday, I had to rush to the airport and spent the weekend with my Father, who lives out of service area. My girlfriend sent the message to Volt on my behalf yesterday. I'm back now, and will be home today and most of tomorrow, then back to work (and regularly scheduled programming).

[Robz888]

I've never been so happy to see my misleading, suspicious, mislynching pseudo-ally who likes to bait me as Serial Killer in a false argument that distracts everyone from my real argument.

Welcome back, you maniac.

[Captain_Frisk]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

[Robz888]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

It did throw me off. Now I think they are probably not BOTH mafia, and that explains why they seemed so in cahoots. But individually they are still the most suspicious people to me. And Glooble, for the given reasons, edges out Jo in me estimation.

[Captain_Frisk]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

It did throw me off. Now I think they are probably not BOTH mafia, and that explains why they seemed so in cahoots. But individually they are still the most suspicious people to me. And Glooble, for the given reasons, edges out Jo in me estimation.

If 1 of them had to be mafia, I would take J.  If G was Mafia and J wasn't, there would be no reason for G to come to J's rescue if J was town... because he'd be happy to let him die.  If both G and J are mafia, then lynching J works just as well.

[Galzria]

I apologize to all for my absence. I said the other night that I would post when I got home after work, but unfortunately I was held late waiting for a Press Release, and when I got home I had to grab my stuff and rush off to the airport (spent Saturday/Sunday/Monday with Father). He doesn't have a strong enough reception to access the internet from my phone at his house, nor does he use a computer for internet (My god... I don't know how he lives. It was KILLING me to be in a black-whole for 3 days!). The message that was sent to Volt yesterday was sent by my Girlfriend on my behalf. She's been more or less keeping me up to date on the goings on here (though I cannot convince her to play!  ). I didn't arrive home until about 3:15 am this morning and went straight to bed. However, I'll be home all of today, and much of tomorrow, so I'll be around some more.

Now, on to the good stuff!

My god are you guys helpless without me! I've never seen so much posting that basically reads "Just waiting... can't do anything else..." - Seriously. I don't know how said it, but unless Pops and I are BOTH Mafia (We're not. I would have to be Mafia for that to be true) there are at LEAST 2 other Mafia out there. I'm appreciative of Robz coming back and trying to get conversation started again on other fronts. But for now, I'm going to stay focused on Pops, because I do think he is the most likely Mafia player in our midst. I've posted my argument in here, but before I post it I'm going through and editing / rearranging to include newer things since my absence, and to make it a little more coherent.

Before I begin, what does a Mafia post look like? What sort of "accusations" do they make to further their case and push a wagon?

From M-II, D1, Robz (Mafia) in response to Morgrim7 (Town):

That said, I claim to be a villager.

Surely you can muster a better defense than "I claim to be a villager." You meant to say, "I am a villager."

From M-IV, D1, Pops (?) in response to Axxle1 (Town):

"If I flip town" can be simplified to "if I flip" or "if I'm lynched", when the person speaking is town.  Sometimes these little Freudian things turn out well, sometimes they don't.  But  like the bonus points here.

From M-IV, D2, Pops (?) in response to Axxle2 (?):

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

I try to contribute and I'm scum.  People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.

Scum try to contribute.  Townies contribute.

To begin with, there are a few key crimes I would like to center in on Pops for:

#1: Stop right there! That's a foul!:

Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell.  So.

Wait! Before I continue, I would like to point out that Pops rarely EVER quotes. His posts are VERY hard to read out of the context of the conversation happening around them. This is a blunting tactic used to make it harder to go back and make a strong case against him, because you can't always tell to whom he was referring, or why. So I'll do my best here to provide some context (as best I'm able), so that you don't get lost.

The above quote speaks for itself however. It's something he loves to claim others are doing (he used it as the backbone to his case on Axxle), but indeed is something Pops himself has subtly (at times) tried to do himself. Here's a sampling of Pops telling everybody else how to play. Again, most without context (as he was sure not to provide any):

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

pairings without flips are dumb.

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

Galzria, the issue with town gambits is that you're lying.  You either lied then or are lying now, because you didn't believe in your Robz case.  That triggers a broad range of psychological effects that read scummily.  So you're left with no one to blame but yourself if you get lynched - you've essentially sent yourself a scum pm instead of a town one and then played the game.

Don't do it again.

Lynch mafia, not scum :/

lynch mafia not scum.

I just don't see Joth being scum.  If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too.  If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong.  Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today.  I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum.

I finish with those two last because it's something that's been said in almost every Mafia thread to date. It's good play, right? I mean, who cares about how scummy somebody plays, as long as we lynch Mafia, not Scum. The problem is, the way Pops uses this is as a defense. He's basically saying "Yes, I'm playing like scum. Scummy scum. Scummiest scum. But it's ok, because as long as you don't lynch me, we'll be good!"

"Lynch Mafia, Not Scum" is not a defense. It's an excuse. It's an excuse to play any way you wish, and not have to justify it. There is VERY little Scummier than that. Furthermore, when called out on his Referee behavior, and the use of his "little black book" to call foul or get tells on everybody, he came up with this beauty of a hedge:

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

When it's pointed out that the above quote is absolutely NOTHING but hedge, Pops goes for broke:

Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me.  I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.

Anybody here who believes this deserves to lose this game. Seriously. "Mr. Mafia" himself claiming to have never heard of "hedging your bets"... I just... I don't even... wow. I spent like, 5 minutes laughing my ass off over this. Anyway, back on point. An example:

Q: "Hey Pops, how come your little black book gave you such strong Mafia tells on Townie Axxle1?"

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Q: "Hey Pops, how come your little black book gave you such strong Mafia tells on Townie Galzria?"

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Q: "Hey Pops, how come..."

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Moving on.

#2: Why won't this vote STICK!?!?:

Robz likes to claim that my votes are all over the place. It's true, I vote more than he does. But I always provide a reason for my votes. I always make a case. For example, D1 I voted for Axxle, Jotheonah, Pops, and then Axxle again. D2, I voted for Jotheonah, and Robz. In all, I've voted for 4 people - 3 of which were sincere (Not counting troll votes during trolling times... ah, those were happy times). I agree with Robz that excessive voting is bad. I'm not QUITE as stringent as he is, but I do try to restrain myself. Pops on the other hand...:

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

unvote, vote Insomniac

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

vote: glooble for now.

I very much disagree with his opinion of Tables.  Though maybe that means I should vote Tables.

Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.

This vote is serious. 

Vote: Axxle

His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.

(Bolded last sentence is my own emphasis, to tie into my first point, and because of the pure delicious irony of it)

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

Whew. 7 people voted for so far, 2 of which are confirmed town (Insomniac and Axxle1). I havn't even listed the posts of his made throughout the day (and there are a number) that read as such:

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

Eventually, one of those votes will stick. (One did D1 at least). Pops is fishing for bandwagons. He doesn't care who gets lynched, he just wants to see SOMEBODY get lynched. You know who would make a *great* candidate? Galzria. Here's the problem. He knows I'm town. He also knows that my setting up the 1v1 with him means that if I get lynched he IS the most likely target D3. I mean honestly, can you give me a SINGLE good reason he wouldn't want to vote me right now? My gambit arguable makes me the most suspicious for "lying", right? He was certainly quick to point it out and pound away at that drum... except now, well, he has some magic case against Axxle2 that makes HIM more suspicious than me!

I just don't see Joth being scum.  If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too.  If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong.  Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today.  I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice. 

Pops would rather not lynch me today now because he KNOWS I'll come up town, and he knows exactly how that'll make him look. He'll claim this next sentence is survivalist (a Mafia tell in his little black book, btw), but I don't MIND being lynched today. When I played for the gambit it was with the thought that if my death brings down a Mafia, that's a damn good trade off. If I can get that Mafia lynched WITHOUT my death, well hell - of course that's better. But if push comes to shove, I don't mind being lynched to vindicate myself and hang the lamp of doom over Pops.

#3: Accountability:

This is arguably the least important of the 3 points, but if you willfully play to add little value to the game, you deserve to get lynched. This is a behavior thing, and unlike above, is a "I don't like the way they've played" argument more than anything else. He has admitted to being capable of playing better. Saying more. Adding more discussion to the conversation. Every time he's questioned about it though, he just turns the other way. "I didn't want the lurkers to get bogged down, so I've only been posting 1 liners"

Playing sub-optimally never helps the town. Ever. Holding back, or being obscure for no reason, causing suspicion and stirring the pot just to "see what happens" without giving a reason or following up with your radical claims do nothing useful. All it does is make it harder for the town to actually get decent reads. If this is town play, it's not town play I want in my town. If it's Mafia play, well then it's excusable - but still not wanted in my town.

In all, the evidence I believe adds up to Pops being Mafia (no sir, not scum, but Mafia). I'm willing to risk my neck to prove it, but I have no reservations in casting my Vote: Popsofctown at this time.

[Robz888]

@Frisk: I can't overlook Glooble being very wrong in what he said about Theorel (that he was the mafia kill--he probably wasn't), and about SFS (that he was suspicious, when he is certainly town.)

@Galzria: This is the case against Pops that I expected. Look, Pops has been to off-putting and irritating to be mafia. I can't imagine him purposefully wanting to bring all this negative attention on himself in such an obvious way. I agree that he's weird and so far unhelpful. If this were the first round, I would understand lynching him on basis of "Who else? He is ugh and it could just be obvious, bad mafia play." But we really need to get someone good here. And I'm pretty sure Pops will flip town, telling us absolutely nothing except that his posts got him into unnecessary trouble, just like Axxle1 (and Morgrim in MII, and theory and TINAS in MI).

[Galzria]

I should note that there is SO much more left on the cutting board. But when scum is scummy, it's just hard to choose which quotes to use. I focused *mostly* on D2, although he was arguably at his most scummy in D1. It's certainly when he had most of the town riled up over his play. It's because of that though that I decided to cut much of D1 activity out. If you want even more post from me that includes his D1 scumminess, I can provide it. I just didn't feel it was necessary at this point.

[Robz888]

No, I see all his scumminess, but like... why would he do this, as mafia? Why would he try to be the most irritating, acerbic, incomprehensible, belligerent person? Surely he should have noticed that jerk play gets you lynched immediately, or at least puts you on the radar for being lynched Day 1, in all previous mafia games.

So, why would he do this? I can much better see it as a strategy designed to ferret out mafia depending on how they respond to his weirdness. I don't see how, but that's a better explanation in my view than him being mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Frisk: I can't overlook Glooble being very wrong in what he said about Theorel (that he was the mafia kill--he probably wasn't), and about SFS (that he was suspicious, when he is certainly town.)

Hanlon's razor.

[Captain_Frisk]

No, I see all his scumminess, but like... why would he do this, as mafia? Why would he try to be the most irritating, acerbic, incomprehensible, belligerent person? Surely he should have noticed that jerk play gets you lynched immediately, or at least puts you on the radar for being lynched Day 1, in all previous mafia games.

So, why would he do this? I can much better see it as a strategy designed to ferret out mafia depending on how they respond to his weirdness. I don't see how, but that's a better explanation in my view than him being mafia.

Has O ever died in any of these games?

[Robz888]

O and Pops are extremely different. They both have short posts, but O clearly explains himself. He's not an irritant, at all, not the way Pops is.

[Galzria]

O and Pops are extremely different. They both have short posts, but O clearly explains himself. He's not an irritant, at all, not the way Pops is.

O has been in the past... but I think that was more MY reaction to his playstyle than O himself. Here, (as I've indicated) O has given me one of the strongest town reads.

[Robz888]

My question to Pops would be this: Do you regret how you've played, being that it's distracting from making cases against real mafia? I suppose you don't.

[jotheonah]

I'm just gonna sheep Galz.  It can't make me any more suspicious.

Vote: popsofctown

Dynamite of a post, man. Although, not exactly bristling with new information. It's all the same stuff that we all found scummy about pops from the get-go.  Only, I hadn't realized just how much his vote was jumping around.

[jotheonah]

The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?

[jotheonah]

Unvote until I get an answer on that or until pops responds (though I have a hard time imagining what could convince me)

[Robz888]

Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....

[jotheonah]

Anway, on another topic, what's this bullshit about Grujah being a "mislynch waiting to happen"? That's not an argument.  Grujah is a lurker who votes opportunistically. And we have, as of today, a super weirdly quiet town.  Manipulative mafia tend to dominate discussions, so if our mafia are lurkers, I would expect a weirdly quiet town. So I don't find Grujah that hard to believe as a mafia, frankly. And the town loses very little by lynching him.

[jotheonah]

Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....

hey now, I didn't vote Axxle2, did I? Nor Glooble. I have a few town reads.

[Galzria]

The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?

Well, consider this: Has your crazy given *everybody* here reason to suspect you (Just nod your head yes here)? If you ARE town, who would KNOW that besides you? Hmm? And if you got lynched for your crazy, and *viola!* came up town, who would look good having predicted it? Hmm...

That said, I'm still not convinced you're town.

[jotheonah]

The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?

Well, consider this: Has your crazy given *everybody* here reason to suspect you (Just nod your head yes here)? If you ARE town, who would KNOW that besides you? Hmm? And if you got lynched for your crazy, and *viola!* came up town, who would look good having predicted it? Hmm...

That said, I'm still not convinced you're town.

Honestly, I'm appreciative that your even still considering it. But there's a double standard here, kinda. You say pops is targeting you cause he knows I'm town, you say he's NOT targeting me because he knows I'm town. Either you can't have it both ways, or it's not much of an argument.

[Galzria]

Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....

I can't make heads or tails of Jo this game. I liked him better when I knew his role.

Then again, when I knew his role was TOWN, this was not how he played. But then, this is a broken record. I just don't know what to do with him here. I'm sorry to say that my biggest D1 regret was not lynching him then, because now I feel stuck with him... not wanting to lynch for Policy, but having a hard time chalking anything he does now up to nothing more than more crazy.

That being said, he HAS had a span today of decent posts. Still... Ugh.

[Galzria]

The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?

Well, consider this: Has your crazy given *everybody* here reason to suspect you (Just nod your head yes here)? If you ARE town, who would KNOW that besides you? Hmm? And if you got lynched for your crazy, and *viola!* came up town, who would look good having predicted it? Hmm...

That said, I'm still not convinced you're town.

Honestly, I'm appreciative that your even still considering it. But there's a double standard here, kinda. You say pops is targeting you cause he knows I'm town, you say he's NOT targeting me because he knows I'm town. Either you can't have it both ways, or it's not much of an argument.

Me'n'You, D2, M-II. I used you as a friend so if you got flipped (There were 3 votes on you of 4 needed to lynch) as town, it would vindicate me, and make my case against Kuildeous look great. It DOES work both ways as Mafia.

[jotheonah]

Anyway, I think we could use a little more sheeping if we actually want this day to end. And I, who has lost all credibility, may as well be the one to do it.

[Axxle]

Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....

hey now, I didn't vote Axxle2, did I? Nor Glooble. I have a few town reads.

nor did you vote for Galz

Unvote

Currently reevaluating the Pops situation.  Will return with an answer.  My gut says that we want to lynch someone else that seems mafia that will give us more information about other players, ie Glooble.

PEdit: I strongly dislike that Jotheonah is mentioning how much he messed up Day 1 and that he's lost all credibility in almost every friggin post.  I'm still fine with a policy lynch on him.

Anyway, I think we could use a little more sheeping if we actually want this day to end. And I, who has lost all credibility, may as well be the one to do it.

[Robz888]

Galzria, there is something to the fact that Jo in this game and Jo in MII represent by far the biggest difference in play among any repeat players in our games of mafia. I was terrified of Jo in MII. Volt was a superior arguer, and Insomniac knew I was mafia... but Jo was the only one who could put together a great argument AND was sort of on the right track about me being mafia. He was truly a player to be reckoned with, and a huge asset to the town. In this game, he's insane.

[Captain_Frisk]

My gut says that we want to lynch someone else that seems mafia that will give us more information about other players, ie Glooble.

Can someone explain to me how: given the twinclaim, that Glooble is a better lynch than Jonah?  If Glooble is Mafia and Jonah is not, I'll drive up to Boston and punch him in the nads.

[Galzria]

PEdit: I strongly dislike that Jotheonah is mentioning how much he messed up Day 1 and that he's lost all credibility in almost every friggin post.  I'm still fine with a policy lynch on him.

Anyway, I think we could use a little more sheeping if we actually want this day to end. And I, who has lost all credibility, may as well be the one to do it.

Galzria, there is something to the fact that Jo in this game and Jo in MII represent by far the biggest difference in play among any repeat players in our games of mafia. I was terrified of Jo in MII. Volt was a superior arguer, and Insomniac knew I was mafia... but Jo was the only one who could put together a great argument AND was sort of on the right track about me being mafia. He was truly a player to be reckoned with, and a huge asset to the town. In this game, he's insane.

I agree, and I know Dsell and C.F. also feel (at least to a degree) the same way. Dsell left with his vote ON Jo after all. Axxle, do you think that lynching Jo would provide us much information? If he comes up Mafia, well, great. But if he comes up Town, what does it give us to work with?

Robz, as you're also up on my list of town reads with C.F. and O, I put the same question to you. What do we learn by lynching Jo (for Policy, or because his play HAS been so different) if he DOES come back town? A mislynch here isn't the end of the world, but I would really rather avoid it. I can agree that Jo has been... well, he's looked bad this game. And maybe he WAS trying something new. But it stands as SUCH a stark contrast to how he played town in M-II, that believing his claim is a tough pill to swallow. So I probably COULD be talked into lynching him (I've voted him once already earlier in this game day), but I would want to make sure the merits are stronger than the consequences.

[Galzria]

Damn! Open ended quote! And I can't go back and fix it! Just respond with an @, instead of quoting me.

[popsofctown]

I hoped Galzria's case would provide a clearer look at his head than this, but I see mixed signals.  Some of his accusations are plausibly legitimately misguided.  Some of it is so much of a reach that it sounds manufactured, like the accusation that I deliberately avoided quoting in order to make my iso hard to read. 
Then some of it is so illogical that it concerns me how he can glide over his own fallacy.  He traced a path where I should want him lynched, because he made a gambit post.  I can follow that and all, but when you finish the calculating area of a pentagon and get 133 degrees farenheit, you should check your answer and make sure it's reasonable.  At a fundamental level, townies don't want to lynch townies and scum want to lynch townies.  So a refusal to lynch a town aligned player is .. evidence of a town wincon.  The only way to twist it otherwise is for Galzria to declare that he knows my skill value is less than needed to get an accurate gut read on him in spite of the gambit.  He has no way of knowing that. 
The fallacy of the argument lends itself to suspicion because you can trace along it more easily if Galzria is scum.  For instance, my desire to lynch Galzria should be GAMBIT - TOWNTELLS.  If Galzria knows towntells should be zero, it's easier for him to ignore the term and have an otherwise valid argument that I should want to lynch him.

That was a whole lot of explication but isn't necessarily proportional to that concern.  I was just trying to be clear.  Overall Galzria really isn't someone I want to lynch today anymore, I think I can benefit too much by continuing to sift through D3 posting, and he's not scummy enough for me to feel a D2 Galzria lynch is sufficiently accurate.

#1: Stop right there! That's a foul!:

Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell.  So.

Wait! Before I continue, I would like to point out that Pops rarely EVER quotes. His posts are VERY hard to read out of the context of the conversation happening around them. This is a blunting tactic used to make it harder to go back and make a strong case against him, because you can't always tell to whom he was referring, or why. So I'll do my best here to provide some context (as best I'm able), so that you don't get lost.

The above quote speaks for itself however. It's something he loves to claim others are doing (he used it as the backbone to his case on Axxle), but indeed is something Pops himself has subtly (at times) tried to do himself. Here's a sampling of Pops telling everybody else how to play. Again, most without context (as he was sure not to provide any):

First off, hypocrisy is not a scumtell.  Lots of people think it is, and I don't think I've ever talked any of them out of it, but it's not.  If two of the first four people to post in the thread are confirmed to be scum, and I was one of those 4 people, it is totally and utterly legitimate for me to point at another individual in the group and say "there's an unusually high probability you are scum".  In the same way if that group is the group of people who have said "mafia" instead of "town" accidentally or the group of people who says "I'm going to nightkill you", a town vig or stuttering townie in those groups can totally and justifiably use that as a tell.

Second off, the apparent hypocrisy arose out of poor wording and miscommunication.  About half the time I call the stuff I call refereeing "narrating", and I think maybe that conveys what I mean more.  I meant referee in the sense that they are moving things along in a neutral way, "hey take your two free throws", "ok time to flip a coin for overtime", not that there is some set of rules the person is enforcing.  I've never referred to Axxle's only instance of "rule enforcing", posting the scumhunting article, as being a reason I wanted to lynch him. 

I finish with those two last because it's something that's been said in almost every Mafia thread to date. It's good play, right? I mean, who cares about how scummy somebody plays, as long as we lynch Mafia, not Scum. The problem is, the way Pops uses this is as a defense. He's basically saying "Yes, I'm playing like scum. Scummy scum. Scummiest scum. But it's ok, because as long as you don't lynch me, we'll be good!"

"Lynch Mafia, Not Scum" is not a defense. It's an excuse. It's an excuse to play any way you wish, and not have to justify it. There is VERY little Scummier than that.

This is more miscommunication, I thought the timing of my chanting of the saying would have conveyed the meaning, "lynch mafia, not the players in the game you wouldn't want to be stuck in an elevator with", but apparently it didn't, and the saying is not ubiquitous here at all.  I agree that if your interpretation of the word scum were correct it'd be absolutely fallacious and silly.

Furthermore, when called out on his Referee behavior, and the use of his "little black book" to call foul or get tells on everybody, he came up with this beauty of a hedge:

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

When it's pointed out that the above quote is absolutely NOTHING but hedge, Pops goes for broke:

Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me.  I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.

I know what hedging a bet is.  The term is not used on mafiascum, though "fencesitting" is used a lot.  I can understand the analogy without being totally sure what it means.  Much like the failure referee analogy. 
Hedging as it's used here is not fencesitting, though I thought it might be and thus the answer I sought was useful to me.  Hedging here means divesting yourself of responsibility for a lynch more so than staying in a state where you can pick either of two wagons based on which is popular(fence sitting).  (now that I've defined it, try to forget it, I don't think it's a scumtell)

#2: Why won't this vote STICK!?!?:

Unfortunately, voting analysis is more complicated than counting on your fingers.  Quantity and quality both matter, and my suspicions have been genuine, not really seeking the most viable wagon I could possibly start. 

This is arguably the least important of the 3 points, but if you willfully play to add little value to the game, you deserve to get lynched. This is a behavior thing, and unlike above, is a "I don't like the way they've played" argument more than anything else. He has admitted to being capable of playing better. Saying more. Adding more discussion to the conversation. Every time he's questioned about it though, he just turns the other way. "I didn't want the lurkers to get bogged down, so I've only been posting 1 liners"

Playing sub-optimally never helps the town. Ever. Holding back, or being obscure for no reason, causing suspicion and stirring the pot just to "see what happens" without giving a reason or following up with your radical claims do nothing useful. All it does is make it harder for the town to actually get decent reads. If this is town play, it's not town play I want in my town. If it's Mafia play, well then it's excusable - but still not wanted in my town.

Lynching players because they aren't valuable townies doesn't hold a candle to lynching players more likely to be scum.  You probably know that though, just, the confirmation bias is strong with this one.
I never deliberately played sub-optimally in the thread.  Keeping players happy, motivated, and kept up with the thread improves lynch accuracy.  Furthermore, superposting blends players with actual real lives and scum lurkers together, usually with the net result that both get full day 1 pass, which is not good.  I played in a way I thought best for the town.  And yes, much of my jerkness has been trying to get reads.  But not the "you'll get nothing and like it" post.  I just really like saying that.

In all, the evidence I believe adds up to Pops being Mafia (no sir, not scum, but Mafia). I'm willing to risk my neck to prove it, but I have no reservations in casting my Vote: Popsofctown at this time.

You DO find me to be scum, but hopefully after some thought you'll know I'm not mafia

@Robz: I regret the magnitude of my day 1 play, but not the direction.  I went a little too far and hogged too much D1 spotlight with my extended wagon, which didn't generate much information because it was full of towns (as far as I could tell)
I probably should have gone "good guy" a little bit earlier in the thread.  And Throne Room my Fortune Teller so I'd know that theorel was going to get NKed and Opal was getting replaced so posting wouldn't have done much actual harm.

[popsofctown]

why would you punch glooble for solid scum play?  That's not very nice.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Galz (p1684)

I agree that lynching J (if town) doesn't reveal much.  I would be much more in favor with

A. Lynching Pops - and then you if pops is town
B. Lynching you - and then I don't know who if you are town.

[popsofctown]

I guess I choose b? >_<

[Axxle]

I agree, and I know Dsell and C.F. also feel (at least to a degree) the same way. Dsell left with his vote ON Jo after all. Axxle, do you think that lynching Jo would provide us much information? If he comes up Mafia, well, great. But if he comes up Town, what does it give us to work with?

If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town.  I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more. 

Damn! Open ended quote! And I can't go back and fix it! Just respond with an @, instead of quoting me.

I am skilled with quote-fu (also I preview my posts most of the time to verify)


PEdit: reading Pops wall-o-text soon.

[jotheonah]

interesting thing about pops post is how he refuted Galzria while backing away from accusing Galzria, which is just what Galzria said he would do. do with that what you will.

[Captain_Frisk]

why would you punch glooble for solid scum play?  That's not very nice.

I just view claiming out side of game information as being somewhat unsporting.  If they are both mafia - well mafia lies, and good for him, and if we policy lynch J, then we need to explore this possibility if J flips mafia.

If Glooble is mafia, he doesn't need to do anything to come to innocent J's defense.  He knows J is innocent, and could just let him die.  I see no reason to defend J with a big "call attention to myself" twinclaim, unless it's a complicated mafia plan to look innocentish, and its unfair because its information that the rest of us don't have.  Hence - ballpunch. 

[Axxle]

If Glooble is mafia, he doesn't need to do anything to come to innocent J's defense.  He knows J is innocent, and could just let him die.  I see no reason to defend J with a big "call attention to myself" twinclaim, unless it's a complicated mafia plan to look innocentish, and its unfair because its information that the rest of us don't have.  Hence - ballpunch.

He was already being questioned for being too buddy-buddy with J, which is a valid reason to twinclaim.

[jotheonah]

I think a pops lynch would be hugely informative right now. And I just, I find it scummy that pops is insisting on his town read on Galzria, even while pointing out things that he says are big stretches, that don't strike me as big stretches at all. I don't get that inconsistency.

And the rest of the defense, I just don't find that convincing. pops's posts have marked him out as a smart guy. But his defenses are all about him not getting something or misreading or misunderstanding something and they're just very weaselly defenses that don't get at the heart of the matter.  This is sort of the post I would expect out of mafiapops under pressure.  He's too smart to get agitated and emotional, but he strayed a little too far to the other extreme, too calm and together and unconcerned.

Vote: popsofctown

If he flips town, at least we'll all have learned something. If he flips scum we'll have learned something AND we'll have lynched scum. If he flips SK, we'll have learned nothing, but that's almost always the case, so c'est la vie.

[popsofctown]

ooh, ooh, i know this one!  Hedging!

[jotheonah]

Well we wouldn't want to be accused of that now would we? Let me make it clear: I am voting for pops because I believe him to be mafia.




That said, if he's town, we'll learn stuff.

[Captain_Frisk]

And Throne Room my Fortune Teller so I'd know that theorel was going to get NKed and Opal was getting replaced so posting wouldn't have done much actual harm.

Everyone knows that throned fortune tellers have no more fortune telling capability than a single fortune teller.

[popsofctown]

And Throne Room my Fortune Teller so I'd know that theorel was going to get NKed and Opal was getting replaced so posting wouldn't have done much actual harm.

Everyone knows that throned fortune tellers have no more fortune telling capability than a single fortune teller.

Sometimes player three forgets to reveal his moat the second time.

[Robz888]

Grr, okay. Scratch that. UNVOTE: GLOOBLE.

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

Be zany/make mistakes/feign apathy/get quiet/accuse/vote/repeat/feign apathy/accuse/vote/repeat/feign apathy/accuse/vote/repeat

[popsofctown]

UNVOTE:

gasp!

[Axxle]

UNVOTE:

gasp!

[Robz888]

UNVOTE:

gasp!

Tell me about it. You don't even know how much it pains me.

[Axxle]

What a sham Bastard Mafia II is now.

[popsofctown]

hey, hey, do the rules of that game let you talk about it outside its thread?

I bet they don't.

[popsofctown]

/joke

[jotheonah]

that game has rules?

[jotheonah]

It's not so much apathy as resignation. (And I'm not so much feigning it, but experiencing it).

[Axxle]

Vote: Jotheonah

A major reason is that he's less valuable to the town than Pops or Galz might be.  And he's basically resigned to keep playing as he is.

is that the 4th vote?

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Jotheonah

A major reason is that he's less valuable to the town than Pops or Galz might be.  And he's basically resigned to keep playing as he is.

is that the 4th vote?

Please explain the point that Pops might be valueable to town. 

[jotheonah]

Pay close attention to who is and isn't derailing this on to me right now. When I flip town I think you'll find it interesting.

[Robz888]

Well, he's experienced. And if his posts aren't indicative of mafia play--they aren't to me--they are hopefully indicative of highly intelligent town play, and he might have very good info for us next round.

Anyway, Jo just parrots whoever is making a case against someone, as long as that someone isn't him. And as soon as Jo gets any heat, he retreats into whatever territory. And then he comes out of it and gets active again. I'm ready to burn him for good.

[Robz888]

^First part of that is about Pops.

[Axxle]

@mod: Can we get prods for Switched From Starcraft and Grujah and anyone else who haven't posted in 48 hours.

PEdit: @CF: his posts seem lucid when he wants to be.  Almost anyone is an asset compared to J at the moment, except for maybe Grujah.

[Captain_Frisk]

@mod: Can we get prods for Switched From Starcraft and Grujah and anyone else who haven't posted in 48 hours.

PEdit: @CF: his posts seem lucid when he wants to be.  Almost anyone is an asset compared to J at the moment, except for maybe Grujah.

Hard to argue with this.  Every time J posts, all he does is make me question whatever point he's trying to make.  That said, my spider sense tingles with trying to lynch him.

[jotheonah]

I'm sure I don't know what you're talking about. I am perfectly lucid. Ask me anything and I will answer honestly.

[Galzria]

UNVOTE

Your unvote has exploded the universe, and now there is nobody left alive. The vacuum of space is deafening.

[popsofctown]

I'm still trusting Glooble's read on his twin brother.

I might be useful tomorrow, but usually if i play a game in the rut I stay in the rut.  Can't seem to figure much of anything out here

[Robz888]

UNVOTE

Your unvote has exploded the universe, and now there is nobody left alive. The vacuum of space is deafening.

Twas the unvote heard round the world.

[Galzria]

UNVOTE

Your unvote has exploded the universe, and now there is nobody left alive. The vacuum of space is deafening.

Twas the unvote heard round the world.

I think we should all lynch Robz for being disingenuous. We all know Robz would never unvote, so he must be hiding something. Certainly a very scummy thing to do. {bold}fakevote: Robz888{SLASHbold}.

[Glooble]

I was really hoping Galz's case against pops would convince me that one or the other was mafia. It didn't. made me more suspicious of both, and now I don't know what to think.  I see a few possibilities:

We lynch Galz or pops

Lynching either of them just seems so high risk/ high reward to me: Pretty good chance of scum, but if not scum then we lose a really useful player. Of the two I am leaning more towards trusting Galz and lynching pops. If pops comes up town I will be reasonably certain Galz is scum. If Galz comes up town, I would be less inclined to immediately lynch pops.

We Lynch me (This could also apply to Grujah, but I'm the one whose had votes on him)

Lynching me would kind of be a wash - I know I'm town, but I'm also willing to concede I haven't been the most helpful town. I don't think my lynch would give the town much information. Few people have interacted with me in any meaningful way. And most of the people who have suspected me are people I have pretty strong town read on (not all, but most.) The thing is, just about anything true of lynching me is more true of option three, which is:

We lynch jotheonah

I still think jo is town, but his erratic behavior is just going to keep giving everyone false reads until we lynch him. I'm afraid the twinclaim just made the confusion even worse. If he is town, the mafia still sure as hell won't nightkill him, and so we'll keep having this same conversation every day, since most of you are not going to suddenly start trusting him. I'm not relishing that scenario.

So that's where I am now. I'm not placing a vote, because I'm not certain enough about any of these options, and I don't believe on supporting a bandwagon just because it's not on me. But I think we should either lynch jo (sorry bro) as kind of a psuedopolicy lynch, and I say pseudo because at least 2 of you genuinely believe he's scum, or take a risk on pops or Galz (I am like 80% sure one or the the other of them is mafia at this point.)

I'm going to a friends house for dinner and will be off the rest of the night. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.

[jotheonah]

I was really hoping Galz's case against pops would convince me that one or the other was mafia. It didn't. made me more suspicious of both, and now I don't know what to think.  I see a few possibilities:

We lynch Galz or pops

Lynching either of them just seems so high risk/ high reward to me: Pretty good chance of scum, but if not scum then we lose a really useful player. Of the two I am leaning more towards trusting Galz and lynching pops. If pops comes up town I will be reasonably certain Galz is scum. If Galz comes up town, I would be less inclined to immediately lynch pops.

We Lynch me (This could also apply to Grujah, but I'm the one whose had votes on him)

Lynching me would kind of be a wash - I know I'm town, but I'm also willing to concede I haven't been the most helpful town. I don't think my lynch would give the town much information. Few people have interacted with me in any meaningful way. And most of the people who have suspected me are people I have pretty strong town read on (not all, but most.) The thing is, just about anything true of lynching me is more true of option three, which is:

We lynch jotheonah

I still think jo is town, but his erratic behavior is just going to keep giving everyone false reads until we lynch him. I'm afraid the twinclaim just made the confusion even worse. If he is town, the mafia still sure as hell won't nightkill him, and so we'll keep having this same conversation every day, since most of you are not going to suddenly start trusting him. I'm not relishing that scenario.

So that's where I am now. I'm not placing a vote, because I'm not certain enough about any of these options, and I don't believe on supporting a bandwagon just because it's not on me. But I think we should either lynch jo (sorry bro) as kind of a psuedopolicy lynch, and I say pseudo because at least 2 of you genuinely believe he's scum, or take a risk on pops or Galz (I am like 80% sure one or the the other of them is mafia at this point.)

I'm going to a friends house for dinner and will be off the rest of the night. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.

Lynch 40% scum or lynch 90% town. What a tough decision you have.

[Axxle]

I was really hoping Galz's case against pops would convince me that one or the other was mafia. It didn't. made me more suspicious of both, and now I don't know what to think.  I see a few possibilities:

We lynch Galz or pops

Lynching either of them just seems so high risk/ high reward to me: Pretty good chance of scum, but if not scum then we lose a really useful player. Of the two I am leaning more towards trusting Galz and lynching pops. If pops comes up town I will be reasonably certain Galz is scum. If Galz comes up town, I would be less inclined to immediately lynch pops.

We Lynch me (This could also apply to Grujah, but I'm the one whose had votes on him)

Lynching me would kind of be a wash - I know I'm town, but I'm also willing to concede I haven't been the most helpful town. I don't think my lynch would give the town much information. Few people have interacted with me in any meaningful way. And most of the people who have suspected me are people I have pretty strong town read on (not all, but most.) The thing is, just about anything true of lynching me is more true of option three, which is:

We lynch jotheonah

I still think jo is town, but his erratic behavior is just going to keep giving everyone false reads until we lynch him. I'm afraid the twinclaim just made the confusion even worse. If he is town, the mafia still sure as hell won't nightkill him, and so we'll keep having this same conversation every day, since most of you are not going to suddenly start trusting him. I'm not relishing that scenario.

So that's where I am now. I'm not placing a vote, because I'm not certain enough about any of these options, and I don't believe on supporting a bandwagon just because it's not on me. But I think we should either lynch jo (sorry bro) as kind of a psuedopolicy lynch, and I say pseudo because at least 2 of you genuinely believe he's scum, or take a risk on pops or Galz (I am like 80% sure one or the the other of them is mafia at this point.)

I'm going to a friends house for dinner and will be off the rest of the night. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.

I hope your trimming that hedge near the fence you're sitting on.

[Galzria]

Where's Volt? I need a vote count! I need to know if...

In all honesty, I'm just curious where we stand. I wouldn't mind switching to Jo, but I want to hear from at least O first. And I would rather lynch Pops still.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-12

Captain_Frisk (1): O
Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (2): Galzria, jotheonah

Not voting {3}: Glooble, Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Voltgloss]

Prods sent to SFS and Grujah.

[popsofctown]

Glooble wants to win the game by lynching townies.  I'm warming to that lynch. 

[popsofctown]

Lynching Glooble, that is.  I still don't see how townGlooble+scumJoth is likely.

[Glooble]

You know what, you're right. My gut tells me jo is town and I should be standing by that.

Look at pop's behavior. He has two votes on him and he starts redirecting suspicion back towards me, someone the town has already shown suspicion towards. He's trying to move the conversation away from the pops/Galz discussion.

Let's see what happens when we turn up the pressure.

VOTE: popsofctown

[popsofctown]

You were playing to the scum wincon.  You don't even understand how I could get that idea?

[Robz888]

What's amazing is how Jo and Glooble seem to want to outdo each other for my vote. Every time I am more sure of one, the other chimes in to absorb my suspicions. That's what brothers are for?

[O]

Unvote

Not like it had much effect anyways, but Pops, Glooble, and Jo are all way too nuts to justify me continuing to vote for CF

Vote:Glooble

It's between Glooble and Pops, TBH.

[Robz888]

Unvote

Not like it had much effect anyways, but Pops, Glooble, and Jo are all way too nuts to justify me continuing to vote for CF

Vote:Glooble

It's between Glooble and Pops, TBH.

Cheers. Except I don't think we should lynch Pops. I'm really, really, really, really torn between Glooble and Jo, though.

[jotheonah]

do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.

[Galzria]

do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.

Actually, I have no problem with Robz's statement. He's one of my town reads, and like O, I trust him. I would LIKE to lynch Pops, but I've already laid out my case. I'm not going to keep pounding the drum trying to twist peoples arms into joining me. If they want to do so, they can by their own reads and reasons.

I'm tempted by their case against Grooble, but right now primarily see you as my fallback option to lynch. My vote, I think, will stay on Pops where it belongs, but if I feel it's the overall right choice for the town, I'll switch if needed.

[Robz888]

do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.

Sure.

He is playing the most forwardly irritating game of anyone so far in any game of mafia. His posts are short, incomprehensible, accusatory, sniping. He's being like this deliberately. I can't for the life of me picture a member of the mafia (or SK) planning to behave like this. Why not? Because the irritants have come under fire and been lynched early in every other game of mafia. They draw immediate targets on their back. And Pops is the guy who has played this game before! Morgrim can't help being a nut and getting lynched, I guess. Why would Pops decide to be Morgrim? Decide to be TINAS? It carries a high likelihood of immediate lynch. Indeed, he's been a candidate very day.

I can't imagine he would pick this strategy, this strategy that has alienated him from everyone, if he were mafia. However, I can see him picking it if he were town. I can imagine a couple scenarios. One, this is how he gathers info, by seeing how people respond to his sniping. Two, he has a power role, and acting in this irritable manner makes him less of a target for the mafia at night, because the mafia don't want to kill someone who annoys and draws suspicion from the town.

I've also agreed with much of his analysis when he does talk seriously, about SFS and some other matters.

So, he's fairly acquitted in my eyes, at least.

[jotheonah]

do you think pops is above reproach? explain your town read on him, Robz, in light of Galzria's arguments.

Sure.

He is playing the most forwardly irritating game of anyone so far in any game of mafia. His posts are short, incomprehensible, accusatory, sniping. He's being like this deliberately. I can't for the life of me picture a member of the mafia (or SK) planning to behave like this. Why not? Because the irritants have come under fire and been lynched early in every other game of mafia. They draw immediate targets on their back. And Pops is the guy who has played this game before! Morgrim can't help being a nut and getting lynched, I guess. Why would Pops decide to be Morgrim? Decide to be TINAS? It carries a high likelihood of immediate lynch. Indeed, he's been a candidate very day.

This does not seem consistent with your insistence that I am mafia, given that you also consider my play to be erratic to the point of lynch-bating and you consider me to be a good player.

[jotheonah]

And anything you can say about me like "Well, it's working isn't it, you're not getting lynched" can also be said of pops.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I don't think you're playing too similar to Pops, Jo. You change your tune a lot in this game depending upon how close you are to being lynched. A lot a lot. You aren't as consistently and forwardly irritating as Pops. Like, right now you're not. Your asking me questions and we are carrying on an intelligent and rational conversation. For now.

Also, my opinion of you is colored by my relationship with you from MII, where you acted differently than you had here. Much differently. If this was your first game, and you behaved this way, it may not have stuck out to me as much.

[jotheonah]

I get why self-preservation (i.e. increased lucidity with lynch proximity) looks like a scum tell.

But self-preservation is a basic human instinct. It happens to town also. Even in so far as I've accepted my lynch, as it draws near I subconciously become more careful, etc.

That's actually one of the things that bugs me about pops. When it looks like he's going to be lynched he just plows right on through. There's no panic, no effort to be suddenly more town friendly.  And that sort of seems like an experienced mafia player overcompensating so much that he doesn't even have a healthy, townish level of self-preservation.

[jotheonah]

And of course, the next question is "but why don't you play that way all the time?"

And at this point, the answer is it's hard to see the motivation when nobody takes you seriously and people say that your arguments actually convince them of the opposite thing. At that point you have to adjust your playstyle. Maybe you decide that the best way to help town is just to be maximally transparent so that you'll be helpful posthumously after your flip. Or by pushing the wagons you like and enjoying the fact that your push on the wagon won't be scrutinized in the same way.

[Robz888]

I get why self-preservation (i.e. increased lucidity with lynch proximity) looks like a scum tell.

But self-preservation is a basic human instinct. It happens to town also. Even in so far as I've accepted my lynch, as it draws near I subconciously become more careful, etc.

That's actually one of the things that bugs me about pops. When it looks like he's going to be lynched he just plows right on through. There's no panic, no effort to be suddenly more town friendly.  And that sort of seems like an experienced mafia player overcompensating so much that he doesn't even have a healthy, townish level of self-preservation.

You're right, it does seem like an experienced mafia player. But why would he put himself in that position in the first place? Surely he would no not to behave like this.

[O]

I get why self-preservation (i.e. increased lucidity with lynch proximity) looks like a scum tell.

But self-preservation is a basic human instinct. It happens to town also. Even in so far as I've accepted my lynch, as it draws near I subconciously become more careful, etc.

That's actually one of the things that bugs me about pops. When it looks like he's going to be lynched he just plows right on through. There's no panic, no effort to be suddenly more town friendly.  And that sort of seems like an experienced mafia player overcompensating so much that he doesn't even have a healthy, townish level of self-preservation.

You're right, it does seem like an experienced mafia player. But why would he put himself in that position in the first place? Surely he would no not to behave like this.

...Nope, he's not "experienced" in this. I actually went ahead and read some of Pops actions in Mafiascum mafia (while he was town). While his antics work well in a community where everyone uses that play style (mafiascum), they're entirely ineffective in a community that lacks those standard conventions. If he played in one of my IRL mafia games, he would probably just be lynched D1-2 every game if he played like this, because IRL calls for different conventions. And since he's playing on FDS, not mafiascum, he can drop the useless "derp I'm going to be vague and unhelpful and it's OK because they won't lynch an experienced mafia player".

TLDR He's very dangerous if he's mafia due to people like Robz accepting his play style, and he's relatively useless as town because people here haven't come close to settling on the conventions of discussion that Mafiascum has coalesced around, which have no use here.

[Glooble]

You were playing to the scum wincon.  You don't even understand how I could get that idea?

As has so often happened this game, I saw the scumminess of my own logic as soon as it was too late to do anything about it. Aw well. This is how we learn. I should explain the logic behind my post better.

This town was dead while we waited for Galz. Like totally dead. If conversation grinds to a halt in the absence of a particular player, I'm inclined to think of removing that player as bad for the town. That's why I was hesitant to cast a pops vote, thereby ratcheting up the pops vs. Galz situation.

It's a question of higher chance of hitting scum now balanced against higher chance of hitting scum later. It seemed to me, lynching a townjo would not be a bad trade-off in that regard, since both his erratic actions and the suspicions they've generated create a lot of noise, which is bad for the town.

So I was looking at three options I didn't like, but it seemed obvious to me that lynching jo was better for the town than lynching me, not only because there actually is a possibility he's scum, since I'm sure some of you genuinely think he is, and I wanted to state that.

I am going to keep my vote on pops now though. I genuinely agree with Galzria's analysis, and find him to be the most likely scum candidate at the moment. I would like to reiterate my earlier suspicions about O, who just saw a bandwagon and went for it.

[Captain_Frisk]

You were playing to the scum wincon.  You don't even understand how I could get that idea?

As has so often happened this game, I saw the scumminess of my own logic as soon as it was too late to do anything about it. Aw well. This is how we learn. I should explain the logic behind my post better.

This town was dead while we waited for Galz. Like totally dead. If conversation grinds to a halt in the absence of a particular player, I'm inclined to think of removing that player as bad for the town. That's why I was hesitant to cast a pops vote, thereby ratcheting up the pops vs. Galz situation.

To be fair, there was an expectation of a whopping analysis which was promised and then didn't materialize, nobody wanted to proceed forward with other lynching until we saw the promised details.  The dead weekend doesn't really surprise me, because weekends are hard, father's day more so.

So it looks like we're primarily talking about 4 candaites:

Too Big To Fail Bunch
Galz: suspicion seems to have died down.  Still eligible for a policy lynch based on "Lynch all Liars"
Pops: Galz makes some reasonable points.  I also went and skimmed through some of pops' stuff on mafia scum, and he's just as much of a pain in the [waste removal hole] over there, so I'm coming around to the viewpoint of "that's just the way the game is played"  He even uses his goofy slang as well - which I didn't see when browsing his normal
topics over here on f.ds.

The wundertwins
Glooble - I am still skeptical that it would be anything resembling mafia play to twinclaim as Glooble if Glooble is Mafia and J is town
J - I feel that he's the safer pick between these two, but the ease in which we are gaining votes on them makes me fear that mafia is involved.  Robz's points of "let me vote for everyone but me" on him does resonate with me.

If we assume 3 mafia, that leaves 9 non mafia.  7 out of 9 need to get together to lynch, which is going to be hard.

@O - welcome back, where have you been all my life?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-13B

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Count 2-13

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT[/b]

Any updates on the prodding?

[popsofctown]

Ok guys.  Here's where I'm at.  Here's where I'm at.

Glooble is nullish.  He sounds like he has a townie perspective some of the time, but his passive D1 behavior stands.  His early D2 posting was very lucid and seemed like he was really trying to geet things done.

Galzria is scummy, but he's not obvscum and he's -active-, so I have more time to read him.  Plus he's unlynchable right now because my reasons are largely the only reasons you'd want to lynch him, and I'm not a popular guy.

Joth can't be town if Glooble is town; he wouldn't misread his twin.  Part of being a good mafia player is teamwork, and considering other's expertise is important.  Some guys are good at reading everyone, I listen to those people.  This is a special case where Glooble ought to be an expert on this one player.  Unless joth just straight up claims scum (uh, figure of speech), he's not worth lynching.

Of course I am not a good lynch today, because although you are saying all sorts of nasty things that hurt my feelings right now I know deep down inside all of you have hearts full of love for me.

So the spotlight isn't on scum, the scum must be in the shadows.  Axxle2 and Grujah are good people to consider.  I'd write up the reasons to lynch Axxle2 but I feel like Grujah needs a fair shot to say the wrong things.

[Robz888]

I think our focus has to be on some of the right people already, since no mafia have come out of the woodwork to push bandwagons. I have been pushing for a Jo lynch for, uh, weeks in real time, and never quite get there. In contrast, lynching Axxle1 was easy breezy for the people who pushed that. So, look, we should probably lynch Jo.

[popsofctown]

You think you know jo better than Glooble?

[Galzria]

Pops, I've got to ask, because I honestly disagree strongly, but you've said two things today that don't sit right with me:

#1. You claimed to be the likeliest choice for lynch D2, but never gave an explanation as to why. It sounded very survivalist. "Don't lynch me, I'm too obvious!"

#2. You claimed that I am somehow above being lynched. Again, like above, it reads as a reverse psychology play. In question 1 you say you're likely to be lynched, to prevent it from happening. In question 2 you say I'm unlynchable, in an attempt to rile the town into lynching me.

Both are very odd things to say - so I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

In regards to the second point, I am NOT above being lynched, although doing so without a solid plan to lynch scum after my death would be a mistake. If a townie dies today instead of Mafia, I want them to do so giving us the best chance at Mafia tomorrow. That stands for my own death as well as any others.

[popsofctown]

Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.

[popsofctown]

Pops, I've got to ask, because I honestly disagree strongly, but you've said two things today that don't sit right with me:

#1. You claimed to be the likeliest choice for lynch D2, but never gave an explanation as to why. It sounded very survivalist. "Don't lynch me, I'm too obvious!"

#2. You claimed that I am somehow above being lynched. Again, like above, it reads as a reverse psychology play. In question 1 you say you're likely to be lynched, to prevent it from happening. In question 2 you say I'm unlynchable, in an attempt to rile the town into lynching me.

Both are very odd things to say - so I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

In regards to the second point, I am NOT above being lynched, although doing so without a solid plan to lynch scum after my death would be a mistake. If a townie dies today instead of Mafia, I want them to do so giving us the best chance at Mafia tomorrow. That stands for my own death as well as any others.

Sorry for being right?  Your lynch is unpopular.  Mine is popular.  It's an observation of the votes and opinions of the town, not reverse psychology.  I can't remember the context, but when I originally said that I'm sure it was involved with making a pertinent point.

[Robz888]

Grujah obviously adjusted his play to just survive. He was talking much more at first, and did that early bandwagon vote without explanation, and then drew immediate criticism and suspicion, and then pretty much shut up. The thing is, since he's new, I could see him doing this to just survive whether he was town or mafia.

.... Although, uh, maybe he's probably mafia, yes? Don't know why I talked myself out of suspecting Grujah.

[popsofctown]

It's ok Robz.  Nobody's perfect.  I have manlove for you anyways

[Galzria]

Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.

Grujah's absence is an entirely different can of worms. He is well, well below the AC.

[Axxle]

I'm thinking Grujah is just too busy to play and will just have to be replaced. But we'll see the results of the prod.

[popsofctown]

Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.

Grujah's absence is an entirely different can of worms. He is well, well below the AC.

AC?

[Voltgloss]

Those prodded have 48 hours to respond or risk replacement.  Prods were sent last night around 10:30 pm EDT, so SFS and Grujah have until that time tomorrow (Thursday) to respond in the thread.

[Galzria]

Also, and you can't disagree, I guarantee you if grujah were at-the-keyboard he would happily be voting on one of the leading wagons.

Grujah's absence is an entirely different can of worms. He is well, well below the AC.

AC?

Activity Constant.

 http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Activity_Constant

[jotheonah]

So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say about Galzria.

Basically, he read me so well that game that I have a very high respect for his reads. As a result, I've been inclined to trust him this game on well-articulated arguments and become suspicious OF him at times when he didn't seem to have a suspect.  Some of my sheepy-looking votes can be chalked up to this, but I wasn't allowed to properly explain at the time.

[Axxle]

So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say about Galzria Jotheonah.

I thought he has been behaving pretty similarly but not exactly this game as in MIII, where he was scum.  He's behaving differently enough that I think he's more likely mafia than SK.

[jotheonah]

meta meta meta

[Galzria]

So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say about Galzria Jotheonah.

I thought he has been behaving pretty similarly but not exactly this game as in MIII, where he was scum.  He's behaving differently enough that I think he's more likely mafia than SK.

Wait, whys my name crossed out?? What did I do?

[Captain_Frisk]

meta meta meta

For real?  just 1 posts earlier, you started playing meta justifying your trust of Galz!

[Captain_Frisk]

Wait, whys my name crossed out?? What did I do?

He was stealing from J's format.

[Galzria]

So now that MIII is over, I can say some things I wanted to say about Galzria Jotheonah.

I thought he has been behaving pretty similarly but not exactly this game as in MIII, where he was scum.  He's behaving differently enough that I think he's more likely mafia than SK.

Wait, whys my name crossed out?? What did I do?

XXX

Never mind. *deletes post* I hadn't read Jo's post prior to yours. Makes sense now.

[jotheonah]

meta meta meta

For real?  just 1 posts earlier, you started playing meta justifying your trust of Galz!

There's a difference between "X is playing like X played in game Y" meta and "Game Y showed me that X is a good player in general" meta. One is much shakier than the other.

[Galzria]

Ahh, so much Meta to be had from M-III.

Let's see... Let's just get it ALL out, then we can move on:

I pegged Jo and Volt as scum D1, but didn't know how to play town myself, and got lynched for it.

Robz pegged Eevee and Volt D1, but didn't know how to play town well, and almost got lynched for it. He did die to the Mafia N1 for being on the right track (3 Mafia who are not in this game)

Jo played steady, but increasingly erratic as preassure grew. He roleclaimed after some, but not a lot, of suspicion was cast his way.

Axxle joined in, inherited Cop, and played a strong game leading the town from dark times. He was assertive when needed, and vague when it served. Very directional thinker.

O played a straight forward game. He had me in fumes early, but I believe that is his style of play. It hasn't bugged me so much this game, but probably because I expect it. He wasn't overly helpful to the town in any lynches driven, but he didn't get himself lynched, which was very valuable at the end.

Dsell played erratic, with many scum tells, and might've been lynched if not for roles providing better targets. He's appeared to play less scummy here - take from that what you will.

Does that covert it all? Can we move forward now? I really don't like meta-gaming. I'll use out lightly, but never to build a case around one way or another.

[Captain_Frisk]

I pegged Jo and Volt as scum D1, but didn't know how to play town myself, and got lynched for it.

[snip]

Does that covert it all? Can we move forward now? I really don't like meta-gaming. I'll use out lightly, but never to build a case around one way or another.

You failed to mention that I am terrible at reading scum and got you lynched.

[Robz888]

What I learned from MIII is that I should trust my reads! They were pretty damn good. I nailed Eevee immediately, and had a good sense that Volt was mafia, mainly because he was buying Dsell's case against me, which was bogus. Which brings me to the other main takeaway: Dsell.

Dsell really irritated me in III, because he was hellbent on mislynching me and then shifting the blame away. It was really scummy, in my opinion. But hey, he wasn't mafia. In this game, I've felt like Dsell is an asset, with some good reads, and I get no feeling that he is scum. But it's interesting that when I did think he was scum, he wasn't.

Anyway, Eevee essentially fit my model for how a newbie mafia would play. He fit it to a T. A middling number of posts early on, lots fo humor, mixed with serious analysis, mixed with hedgin, hedging, hedging. By hedging, I mean saying, "Well, it could be X, but on the other hand, not X." And emoticons!

Nobody in IV is playing quite so much like that.

[popsofctown]

But eevee is so good at dominion.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Count 2-13

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

So it looks like we stalled again.

I'm looking at the above and I'm struggling.  Galz's pops argument I found convincing - but I look at the rest of the wagon (the scumtwins) and I get nervous.  The J wagon has less suspicious characters (pops' scumcusations of Axxle2 not withstanding)

Those on the J bandwagon - If we lynch J - and he turns up town - what have we learned? Where do we go next?

Those on the popswagon - I assume if he flips town we lynch Galz?

[Galzria]

Vote Count 2-13

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

So it looks like we stalled again.

I'm looking at the above and I'm struggling.  Galz's pops argument I found convincing - but I look at the rest of the wagon (the scumtwins) and I get nervous.  The J wagon has less suspicious characters (pops' scumcusations of Axxle2 not withstanding)

Those on the J bandwagon - If we lynch J - and he turns up town - what have we learned? Where do we go next?

Those on the popswagon - I assume if he flips town we lynch Galz?

I asked those questions not long ago. I'd be willing to lynch J if I got a good answer, but thus far I have not.

[Axxle]

If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town.  I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more. 

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 2-13

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (3): Galzria, jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

So it looks like we stalled again.

I'm looking at the above and I'm struggling.  Galz's pops argument I found convincing - but I look at the rest of the wagon (the scumtwins) and I get nervous.  The J wagon has less suspicious characters (pops' scumcusations of Axxle2 not withstanding)

Those on the J bandwagon - If we lynch J - and he turns up town - what have we learned? Where do we go next?

Those on the popswagon - I assume if he flips town we lynch Galz?

If he flips town, we look back at this monstrous thread and we sheep pops's reads somewhat. Those reads highly don't include Galz, so I'm not sure. Cause I'm still really sure one of them is scum. Dang.

Yeah, probably lynch Galz. How many mislynches are we from LyLo? Can we afford to be wrong if they're both town? The nightkills should be somewhat instructive at this point. Also, who the heck is the SK?

I have an increasingly strong scumread on pops, and I think that more pressure votes on him will make it more apparent to the rest of you. But then, my reads are terrible. But I really like Galzria's, like I said, and I'm heartened that we agree. Maybe you guys will lynch me if pops flips town? Actually maybe you'll lynch me if pops flips scum, given how much he's defended me. It does hurt to be voting for one of the few people who consistently defends my towniness.

But I'm not going to hop on my own wagon and I don't think O or Glooble is scum.

Several people have expressed lukewarm interest in a Grujah wagon. I could dig it. Or if a Galz lynch picked up steam I could go that way. Otherwise, it's gotta be pops.

[Captain_Frisk]

If J comes up town, I would consider Glooble town.  I think mafia-Glooble would have been fine being linked with J-town since if mafia-Glooble was lynched he'd take J-town down with him, and if J-town is lynched we'd trust mafia-Glooble more. 

So - J flips town - this clears Glooble in your head - and then what? 

DSell isn't going to answer any prodding, and Tables posts so infrequently I wouldn't expect to see him either.

@RobZ - If J is town - how does your read of the situation change?

[Voltgloss]

DSell isn't going to answer any prodding

Just to clarify: 

- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.

[Captain_Frisk]

DSell isn't going to answer any prodding

Just to clarify: 

- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.

Agreed - I meant prodding from me / Galz regarding what the plan would be if J is lynched, not Mod Prodding. Should have been  more clear.

[Galzria]

DSell isn't going to answer any prodding

Just to clarify: 

- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.

Agreed - I meant prodding from me / Galz regarding what the plan would be if J is lynched, not Mod Prodding. Should have been  more clear.

I know it's been noted before, but just looking at Jo's last post:

"I'm good with lynching Galz"
"I want to lynch Pops"
"Someone mentioned a Gruj wagon. I'm good with that"

All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome.

[Axxle]

All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome scummy.

[jotheonah]

DSell isn't going to answer any prodding

Just to clarify: 

- I have not prodded Dsell because he is on V/LA, returning in a few days if I recall correctly.
- If a lynch occurs while Dsell is still on V/LA, Night 2 will be extended until around 18-24 hours after Dsell's return.

Agreed - I meant prodding from me / Galz regarding what the plan would be if J is lynched, not Mod Prodding. Should have been  more clear.

I know it's been noted before, but just looking at Jo's last post:

"I'm good with lynching Galz"
"I want to lynch Pops"
"Someone mentioned a Gruj wagon. I'm good with that"

All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome.

Seriously? Cause if you read the whole post I actually go through all the wagons, list several that I won't participate in (glooble and O) and rank the others somewhat in order of pereference.  So sue me for trying to facilitate a lynch.  You can't just pull out the parts of my post where I express willingness to lynch certain people, ignore the parts where I express unwillingness to lynch other people, and then say that I'm Mr. Lynch Lynch Lynch.  I could do the same thing with recent posts from CF, Robz, even probably you, Galz.  This is confirmation bias at it's worst.

[jotheonah]

BTW, Axxle's super-sarcastic tunnel on me is super not cute.

[Galzria]

All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome scummy.

I was actually very conscience NOT to use that word, because one thing Pops DOES have right is confusing "disliked playstyle" and "scum" (in the sense that scum = mafia".

I think Pops is scummy. I think Jo has been... Well, irksome.

Jo COULD be scum. Robz claims that Pops has been to obvious (to be Mafia), but has no issues lynching Jo, who has dug himself deeper holes than anybody else. These two altering statements from somebody I trust has me a bit concerned.

Why would Robz defend Pops?

It's just... Really confusing. I broke away from my gut instinct D1, which said to lynch Jo. Instead I followed a false read into lynching Axxle1. Given my track record on reads in M-II, it's no surprise I would be a little more uncertain now.

Pops is my strongest scum READ. Jo is who my gut says to lynch. So yeah, I'm trying to figure out NOW what would be gained by voting against my reads, should Jo flip town.

Then again, O would probably tell me I'm over thinking it. In M-I and M-III, success came down to the roles getting results. That takes time. Pops conceivably COULD be a PR (he hasn't reached L-1 with imminent hammer yet, which is where he would claim). Jo HAS claimed VT already, so if he's Mafia, he can't fakeclaim at this point...

Gah! Yes, this post rambled. Just stream of conscience.

[Axxle]

You were pointing out that J was incredibly survivalist, which is a scum tell.

[jotheonah]

All in one post. Jo has the ultimate "anybody but me" syndrome... And it comes across so irksome scummy.

I was actually very conscience NOT to use that word, because one thing Pops DOES have right is confusing "disliked playstyle" and "scum" (in the sense that scum = mafia".

I think Pops is scummy. I think Jo has been... Well, irksome.

Jo COULD be scum. Robz claims that Pops has been to obvious (to be Mafia), but has no issues lynching Jo, who has dug himself deeper holes than anybody else. These two altering statements from somebody I trust has me a bit concerned.

Why would Robz defend Pops?

It's just... Really confusing. I broke away from my gut instinct D1, which said to lynch Jo. Instead I followed a false read into lynching Axxle1. Given my track record on reads in M-II, it's no surprise I would be a little more uncertain now.

Pops is my strongest scum READ. Jo is who my gut says to lynch. So yeah, I'm trying to figure out NOW what would be gained by voting against my reads, should Jo flip town.

Then again, O would probably tell me I'm over thinking it. In M-I and M-III, success came down to the roles getting results. That takes time. Pops conceivably COULD be a PR (he hasn't reached L-1 with imminent hammer yet, which is where he would claim). Jo HAS claimed VT already, so if he's Mafia, he can't fakeclaim at this point...

Gah! Yes, this post rambled. Just stream of conscience.

Look at that, Galzria talked about lynching two different people in one post! That anyone-but-me syndrome he has is just terrible.


...is a thing that no one will day about Galzria.

[jotheonah]

*say

[Galzria]

My reads in M-III, sorry. Dropped an I.

[Tables]

Well, Galz vs. Pops was interesting. After reading both Galz post and Pops reply, both cases were well made (Galz attack and Pops defence, that is), and it's actually made me think the most likely scenario is that both are town, and the mafia were happy to sit back and watch, and now happy to simply push one or the other. Whose jumped onto the wagons so far? Hmm.

My vote is already on Joth, and his recent play has just been more and more mafia like. Sit back, wait for a good wagon. Jump on the wagon. Talk, post token analysis until someone calls you, make some vague defence, possibly attack them back. Wait for nothing really to happen. Glooble's twin thing is interesting, but... I know that in mafia, you can come pretty close to decieving yourself if you're good (I've written whole paragaphs explaining why I think someone is mafia in other games, before remembering that I'm the mafia and they're definitely town). And if you can decieve yourself, well, I suspect you can decieve your twin. It's a bit of a non-sequituer I know, but I think it's possible. And there's always the chance both Joth and Glooble are scum, anyway.

My vote is now firmly fixed on Joth, for now. Pops I'm still suspicious of, but as I said before, I'm beginning to think this big quiet period was because the mafia were waiting for a town vs. town debate to spark up.

[jotheonah]

You were pointing out that J was incredibly survivalist, which is a scum tell.

I really don't know how you could be LESS survivalist than I've been this game. I OFFERED TO LYNCH MYSELF. In what universe is that survivalist?

The things that Axxle says about me. They're not legitimate things. They're just ... Stir the pot stir the pot drive the wagon drive the wagon. Does nobody else see that? Do I need to post his iso?

[Galzria]

Ugh. More and more defensive as the pressure mounts.

Alright. I'll trust my gut this time, and because he's driving me up the wall. If I DON'T vote Jo, and he's scum, I'll never forgive myself if he goes on to win. If I don't vote Pops and he goes on to win,  at least I'll feel outplayed, but not foolish.

Vote: Jotheonah

[jotheonah]

Am I this invisible right now? That no one is even going to consider what I have to say? Look at Axxle's iso and tell me you see a helpful town player! Like half his posts today are one-liners that egg on my wagon. Of the remaining half, most are also one-liner snipes.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-13A

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, Galzria
popsofctown (2): jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

[Robz888]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I'm at an event but ugh kill him please, I am so sick of this.

[jotheonah]

I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?

I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.

[Captain_Frisk]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

[Captain_Frisk]

I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?

I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.

If you are town j, then unvote and make them work for it

[Robz888]

I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?

I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.

EXACTLY

If you are town j, then unvote and make them work for it

[Tables]

As town you really have no reason to self vote. As mafia, nobody is going to care about your 'lynch hammer' logic and this could end the day.

Also implicitly insulting everyone voting for you isn't generally a good move. For any alignment. Axxle hasn't been especially helpful lately, but he's also been pointing out scummy things about you. I can't blame him for it.

[jotheonah]

I mean will someone with an ounce of sense look back at the last page and a half and tell me that the case against me, that I named more than one person at the phase of the day when we're trying to negotiate a lynch, makes sense? Or that Axxle has actual contributed a single helpful thing since replacing in, in particular a single comment about me that contained an original thought?

I'm totally down with being lynched, but get ready to look back tomorrow on the votes that got you there. Try to find the real scumhunting beneath them.

If you are town j, then unvote and make them work for it

You know I can't do that, Captain. If I unvote, all I'll ever hear from Robz is "You want to look like you want to die but you don't really, you must be mafia!" No thanks.

And Tables, maybe I would care about insulting the whole town if the whole town cared about ignoring me. It's become increasingly impossible for me to play this game and I'm pretty much done with it.

I'll unvote when Robz is convinced that I'm really ok with dying and not just faking it.

[jotheonah]

And Tables, name one thing Axxle's said against me that has real merit.

[Captain_Frisk]

To the people currently voting for j: don't backdown and reward this bad behavior

[jotheonah]

Unvote

But Robz, one peep out of you and it goes right back on.

Now I'm gonna go take some deep breaths.

This game really brings out the rage in me.

[Voltgloss]

This feels apropos.

[jotheonah]

I think survivalist = mafia is a really really dangerous tell. No one likes having everyone against them, no one likes being lynched. Think about Morgrim day 1 of MII. It seems like every time we get close to lynching someone and they get panicky and then we interpret that panickiness as a scum tell and then we lynch them and they flip town. And we say But they were so scummy!

We're like Spanish Inquisition. We bully "confessions" out of people then lynch them for them. If the f.ds community learns anything from me, I hope you'll learn that wanting to live is not a tell and crazy is not a tell. Tells are things that an actual scum would actually do. Those are the only tells.

I am completely serious about Axxle, by the way. I think his play deserves some scrutiny hes been active, yet unhelpful and a little defensive (I'm thinking of when he jumped on pops with "When I try to contribute I'm scummy). At the risk of sounding hypocritical, his play has been pretty different from his straightforward town play in MIII. And I don't know what purpose his hostile edge against me serves if he's town.

[jotheonah]

Did I scare everybody away? I'll just slump quietly in the corner now while you guys come to the inevitable conclusion that you really can't not lynch me after that hysterical performance.

[Captain_Frisk]

This feels apropos.

I thought that was Quentin tarrantino's word.

[Captain_Frisk]

Did I scare everybody away? I'll just slump quietly in the corner now while you guys come to the inevitable conclusion that you really can't not lynch me after that hysterical performance.

Don't tempt me.

[Tables]

Having looked back, Axxle has indeed not said a whole lot of new things about Joth. On the other hand, his reasons for voting are hardly unexplained. I'm not going to defend Axxle, and actually, I can see why Joth is suspicious. But right now... I can't think of much else to say about Joth. Is he really our best lynch target for the day, though? I think... I'd give him a better than 50% chance of flipping scum. And that's comfortable odds to lynch.

And since the day might end before I next get on, and I might die if I'm very unlucky with the mafia/doctor (note to doctor: Remember to randomly choose to defend either me or SFS, personally I'd like you biased towards me but make your own choice) (note to mafia: Feel free to try and shoot me or SFS), I'd just like to remind everyone: I'm still not sold on SFS being guaranteed town. I've seen nothing resembling a compelling argument for his innocence, and the possibility of him being mafia working on a teammates suggestion seems reasonable to me. I think he's likely town, but not guaranteed.

[O]

Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.

I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic.

[Axxle]

Wanting to live in lieu of scumhunting is a scumtell.

[O]

Wanting to live in lieu of scumhunting is a scumtell.

not quite sure what you mean there. Jo *is* scumhunting just as much as any of us, IMO.

[Galzria]

Well, as far as scummyness goes, Axxle has been behind Pops at #2 on my radar. His voting against me quickly when I made my case on Robz (and the ridiculousness of his reason more than anything "Galz just doesn't want another strong thinker in the town" uhh... Right), his lack of anything substantive to say, his push for a wagon to roll... That's just off the top of my head without looking back.

Jo, I have played 3 games with you now. The first, we were unfortunately on opposite sides, and I knew it. Had I been town, you played a very enjoyable game. I would love to have town like that around. In the second, I got an uncanny read on you D1, that set both of us up to fall. Here, game 3, you've not played like the person I looked forward to having on my team. It makes me sad, but you shouldn't take it personally, and the "oh, pity me" argument doesn't go over well. Pops did it a few pages back and it irked me there too.

I guess what I'm saying is, while my reads have 2 (actually, 3) people more SCUMMY than you, my gut says "I've seen town Jo. This is not town Jo. I've seen SK Jo. This is not SK Jo. Jo  roleclaimed vanilla already, so this is not PR Jo. I've never seen this Jo before. The only role I've never seen Jo play is Mafia. This must be Mafia Jo".

You claim kicking and screaming that you're not Mafia. Let's say, fine, I believe you. I go back to voting Pops. You don't get lynched, you don't get NK'd (and goodness, town or Mafia you won't). Now what? And let's say on the OUTSIDE chance you ARE Mafia... If I (or we, whatever) let you get away with playing like this... Well, we've basically screwed ourselves for any future Mafia games.

Do you SEE how the way you're playing is hurting the town? O is right, Axxle's argument that "survivalist is scum" is crap (for the record, and I corrected Axxle, I personally said it was irksome, not scummy). I shouldn't be on your bandwagon because you're not even in my top THREE. Yet here I am, willing to lynch you on the CHANCE you might be scum, even though I believe it more likely there is scum on your wagon. But it rids us of a Jo that I'm not honestly sure what to do with.

Yeah, it's a bit of a bind, and I'm rather conflicted about it.

[Galzria]

Unvote

I'm going to bed. I'm too confused/conflicted to be voting for anybody right now, and I've got to be up for work at 3:30.

Jo... Nevermind. I've said all I can say.

Here's a quick rundown of where I stand:

Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria

I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.

Anyway, to bed.

[Robz888]

I've never said that I think Jo is mafia because he wants to live. We all want to live. I want to live. And if you try to lynch me, I will argue against you. But Jo pretends to give up and not care when he gets close to dying, and it's such a sham. That's the scum part of his survivalism.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-14

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {4}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk, jotheonah, Galzria

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

I've never said that I think Jo is mafia because he wants to live. We all want to live. I want to live. And if you try to lynch me, I will argue against you. But Jo pretends to give up and not care when he gets close to dying, and it's such a sham. That's the scum part of his survivalism.

So the leaving six votes on me for a good bit didn't do anything to convince you that my willingness to die is sincere? No of course it didn't. But I doubt anything I could do save actually dying would.

Galz, I get it. Actually, all of you, I apologize for the outburst last night. Galzria though, you remember right before you died in MIII how you got crazy and voted for yourself because you were so sure about me and no one was listening to you?  I get crazy when no one listens to me.  And through entirely fault of my own, I've set it up so that no one does like ever.  When I point that out, it's scummy. When I do my darnedest to play like I did in Mafia II, that's also scummy cause "why the sudden change in your playstyle dude?" There's more or less nothing I can do at this point that isn't scummy, and yet most of you don't really think I'm scum.

Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2

[Captain_Frisk]

Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2

Sigh.

[Galzria]

Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2

Sigh.

Despite it being the 50 millionth person he's voted for, I can't really take issue with this one, since he's made it quite clear (albeit not in THAT post) why his vote is there... And at least with this vote he's not sheeping, but actually voting on his own reads.

[Captain_Frisk]

Anyway, it's time to put my vote where my big mouth is. Vote: Axxle2

Sigh.

Despite it being the 50 millionth person he's voted for, I can't really take issue with this one, since he's made it quite clear (albeit not in THAT post) why his vote is there... And at least with this vote he's not sheeping, but actually voting on his own reads.

Yeah, I don't necessarily disagree with it, it's just the feeling that I get whenever J is pushing something... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra... I can't really argue with the message, but the teacher and his other behavior makes me inherently distrusting.

Still nothing from SFS or Grujah?  I hope we didn't scare them off!  Come back!

[jotheonah]

... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...

That was oddly specific. What was high school like for you?

[Captain_Frisk]

... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...

That was oddly specific. What was high school like for you?

Well - my original thought was something political, like listening to a $political_figure speech and agreeing with it, despite the fact that you distruct $political_figure.  Then I figured that politics didn't really have a place here, so I decided to modify it to be something that would be really difficult to argue with....  and dudes running around in pointy white hats calling each other wizards are pretty tough to defend...

[WanderingWinder]

... like having a KKK Grand Wizard teach me algebra...

That was oddly specific. What was high school like for you?

Well - my original thought was something political, like listening to a $political_figure speech and agreeing with it, despite the fact that you distruct $political_figure.  Then I figured that politics didn't really have a place here, so I decided to modify it to be something that would be really difficult to argue with....  and dudes running around in pointy white hats calling each other wizards are pretty tough to defend...

Is that a challenge? 

[Captain_Frisk]

Is that a challenge? 

Since we're having a tough time picking our lynch, it sounds like we might want to consider WW?

Vote: WanderingWinder

[Tables]

Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria

I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.

There's one very shocking thing in that list. One person is in your second bracket - in your 6 most suspicious people, that AFAIK you've never given any reasons you're suspicious of, and has been cleared by a cop claim you believe to be town. To put me that high, you'd have to think it reasonably likely I'm either the SK or the Godfather. Which means... why aren't you providing any evidence for your suspicion?

And to me, Joth still reads desperate scum, not stupid townie. His unique position makes it hard to compare him to other people, and he's smart, so I kinda feel like his actions are somewhat calculated. It's so hard to tell though. I guess one question is, do we get much from lynching him? If he flips town, what? If he flips scum, what?

[Robz888]

Most Likely Mafia to Least Likely:
Popofctown
Axxle
---
Glooble
Grujah
Jotheonah
Tables
---
Dsell
C.F.
O
SFS
Robz
Galzria

I'd be shocked if anything in that list order surprised anyone.

There's one very shocking thing in that list. One person is in your second bracket - in your 6 most suspicious people, that AFAIK you've never given any reasons you're suspicious of, and has been cleared by a cop claim you believe to be town. To put me that high, you'd have to think it reasonably likely I'm either the SK or the Godfather. Which means... why aren't you providing any evidence for your suspicion?

And to me, Joth still reads desperate scum, not stupid townie. His unique position makes it hard to compare him to other people, and he's smart, so I kinda feel like his actions are somewhat calculated. It's so hard to tell though. I guess one question is, do we get much from lynching him? If he flips town, what? If he flips scum, what?

Emphasis mine. I agree with this analysis. I have always agreed with it. Tables, have you voted for Jo yet? Please do so. Let's get on with this.

I also agree with you that Galzria putting you in the mid=suspicion group is a mistake. I think that you and SFS are almost certainly both in the clear. Galz may have just forgotten that.

[Galzria]

Ah, to be fair, I had forgotten about SFS OSC investigating Tables. Still, he's about in the right place in my list. Not high enough to waste energy building a case around, but nit clear either. There are a number of things that could read false-positive on an investigation, and there just hasn't been enough from Tables himself to clear his name with me. He might belong in the bottom subset, but still at the top of that list.

[Robz888]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

[Robz888]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

[Galzria]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

[popsofctown]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

[Robz888]

I suspect O and Frisk more than Tables, though admittedly not very much.

Also, I don't suspect Axxle the way everybody else does. We (not me, though) already mislynched him once. That buys my sympathy.

Sympathy is a losing tactic in a Mafia game.

Fine, but all things being equal, we're usually wrong. I'd rather not have the town be wrong twice back to back about the same person.

[popsofctown]

Dignity is a losing tactic in a mafia game.

[Galzria]

Dignity is a losing tactic in a mafia game.

[Captain_Frisk]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

[Robz888]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

Boredom. I forgot about Dsell, and I'll be really glad to have him back. AS for the other two, I am loathe to get two new replacements. They are going to read 70 new pages? And then we have to interpret them pre-replacement and post-replacement? Ugh.

[jotheonah]

My most plausible mafia team is pops, Grujah, Green Opal/Axxle2.

In this scenario, pops tells the two newbies "Stay out of the way, I'mma take charge of the town and then we'll control their votes." (Not saying he's succeeded at this, but there's evidence of him trying to assert himself as an authority and steering the votes.)

Then Axxle replaces in and, as a non-newb, feels more comfortable talking and pops say "fine, I trust you not to give us away."

Grujah has disappeared lately, but before he disappeared he always seemed to pop in to push a wagon along with a vote.

I like this idea because it's the only thing that adequately explains the long periods of silence, the feeling that no wagon has enough push on it to be mafia-driven, the lack of much scummy play on anyone's part. Not so much this exact pairing as the notion that our mafia is 2/3rds lurkers, which would explain why it feels so damn invisible.

I need to look through the long backlog though and see if I can find any hard evidence of this. I thought I'd just throw it out and see if it strikes anyone else as plausible.

PPE: Actually, given that our Doldrums coincide somewhat with Dsell's absence, could that be evidence that he's on the scum team? I keep forgetting about him, which is never a good sign IMO.

[Captain_Frisk]

But, time to kill Jo. Come on guys.

Whats with the rush?  We should have our prod results tonight, which will (potentially) get us 2 new players, and DSell comes back tomorrow night?

Boredom. I forgot about Dsell, and I'll be really glad to have him back. AS for the other two, I am loathe to get two new replacements. They are going to read 70 new pages? And then we have to interpret them pre-replacement and post-replacement? Ugh.

I checked this AM.  Grujah has been lurking.  SFS has literally not logged in.

[jotheonah]

Don't jump on me, please. I'm just throwing out an idea I've been bouncing around for a while because it seems like we need more to talk about.

[popsofctown]

Jo do you have a primal urge to change my mind about you?

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo do you have a primal urge to change my mind about you?

The only thing that is preventing me from voting for him is thinking "If I was Mafia, how angry would I be if J was my mafia cohort?"

[jotheonah]

Actually, the whole theory makes infinitely more sense with Galz in place of pops, looking back.

[jotheonah]

But I don't see Galz the person telling his teammates not to play the game. For some reason I can imagine pops doing that.

[popsofctown]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

[Axxle]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

Ouch pops, just ouch.

J's post has actually reminded me that I probably should be looking for his scummates, IIRC Grujah avoided the J bandwagon on Day 1 (while hopping on many more while he was still here), and J would either have to be a very good scum player to have fooled his twin, or be cohorts with him, so Glooble would be my second bet as a teammate.

[jotheonah]

meh, it's a dumb theory.

But Axxle. to add to his crimes: Opportunistic not-super-well explained vote on Galzria after his "gambit" post.

also am i the only player under 30 on iso

I hit 30 again? Yay!

Vote: Galz

Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said.  But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz.  You want to be the only leader in the town.  Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post.  I find that thinking disingenuous.

That's an odd reason, as there has never been strife between us over something like that, and I would much rather have him with me than against me.

But that's fine.

In that quote, Galzria points out that the brief stated reason for his vote doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

But he took it off when CF voted. But then he put it back on. And then, even though he expressed contempt for Galzria's gambit, he gave up on that attack and instead started pursuing me. He wants to be on a wagon that will work. He seems to get aggravated the longer we go without a lynch. I don't see my vote changing again.

OF COURSE, that means Galz can't be the scum mastermind either. Dangit.

[Captain_Frisk]

perhaps they managed that part on their own?

Even after Galz calls you out for not quoting, you continue to do it?

[popsofctown]

it's the preceding post.  It shouldn't be necessary.

[Galzria]

it's the preceding post.  It shouldn't be necessary.

It shouldn't be necessary now. But 40 pages from now? It's incredibly, and by your defense intentionally, unhelpful.

[popsofctown]

you ctrl f the post.  you don't understand it. you look at the preceding post.  it isn't hard.

[Galzria]

you ctrl f the post.  you don't understand it. you look at the preceding post.  it isn't hard.

Neither is *gasp* hitting the quote button. Stop playing to a Mafia wincon if you're town. All you're doing is making it harder for everybody to read your intentions.

[Captain_Frisk]

it's the preceding post.  It shouldn't be necessary.

It shouldn't be necessary now. But 40 pages from now? It's incredibly, and by your defense intentionally, unhelpful.

Agreed - especially when you're going back and looking at a users post history - where you don't have the benefit of context posts.

[O]

If Jo was mafia, he certainly would have been bussed by now....   

[Captain_Frisk]

I want to ragevote on both J and pops, but my head tells me that these votes are irrational.

[popsofctown]

For me it makes the thread less readable if you quote the preceding post even though it is a direct tit for tat response.  My eyes have a tendency to reread the quote even though I've already read it (which is kinda the point) which makes reading and rereading the thread take longer.

My natural human instinct is to assume other people are the same way, but I guess that can be flawed. 

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-15

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Axxle (1): jotheonah

Not voting {3}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Sorry for my absence all, have been traveling.  Am getting caught up, and am on page 68.  Will post in a few minutes.  Until then,

UNVOTE

[Captain_Frisk]

Sorry for my absence all, have been traveling.  Am getting caught up, and am on page 68.  Will post in a few minutes.  Until then,

UNVOTE

All eyes on you grujah.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, I'm on page 72, but for the reasons in #1711, 1720, and 1779, and because I see value in moving things along to Day 3:

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

[popsofctown]

Nooo!

[jotheonah]

are we surprised? I am not.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nooo!

You are still in favor of Galz lynch?

[Grujah]

will post in a jiff. Is that a Jonah lynch? damn.

[jotheonah]

no, believe I'm only at 6. The hammer, Grujah, is in your hands.

[Galzria]

will post in a jiff. Is that a Jonah lynch? damn.

Ahem. *cough* *cough*

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Sorry Pops

@all - I know that I have not been the most helpful player, despite my best efforts, but I really can't see any point in letting someone else even less helpful (or rather, more confusing) stay in the game.

Having said that, my prediction (and someone will jump all over this I know) is the Jo WILL STILL NOT BE LYNCHED TODAY.  "He's confusing too many people" will become a bailout, somebody will unvote, blah blah, and we will be in this same boat 2 RL weeks from now.

THere are times where the axiom "do something, even if it's wrong" has merit.  I don't think this is wrong, as it will have SOME value even if he flips town.

[Galzria]

will post in a jiff. Is that a Jonah lynch? damn.

No, actually, it's only 5. But I look forward to your post nontheless.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Out for the evening, will check in tomorrow.

[Axxle]

Nooo!

Are you really *that* convinced that J is town?  You parked your vote on Galz, what are the reasons again? (I know I voted for him too, but just want an updated read on him)

[jotheonah]

ninja'd. bad math. no hammer for you, sorry.

[Grujah]

Ok, sorry, but I was way overwhelmed by other stuff, also I am not as excited about whole forum-mafia as I was when so that influenced things too. Lurking past days was IsoDom related.

Some observations:
I agree on Robz's reasoning Theo = SK/Vig kill and Ins = Mafia kill. I am not completely convinced on it being Vig for sure, I agree with Galz going on after him for being super-conviced on stuff. Being too convinced = scum.
I don't find Galz SK hunt that bad, scummy play, I absolutely hate j jumping along and saying "OH, you are old Galz! Vote Robz!" That is scummy.
I hate that O is voting all the time but always staying clear from main bandwagons.


Can Glooble and J both posting comfirming onlineyness and that are reading this right now?

[jotheonah]

Gone now for the rest of the evening. If I die in the meantime, it's been a pleasure playing with you all, sorry for being a pain in the ass, and sheep my reads. I remember a lot of you returning to the refrain that I'm super smart and good at this game (even if it was in the context of "so he must be scum for playing so stupid"), so if you believe that then when I flip town you should be interested in picking apart my votes, even the ones that seem survivalist now. Except the Robz vote. Pretty sure that dude's town.

I regret that I have but one life to give for my town and all that stuff.

[Grujah]

Except the Robz vote. Pretty sure that dude's town.

Why the change?

[jotheonah]

I've just been getting a town read on him since then. He could still be scum. I don't want to clear him completely or anything. Really leaving now, sry.

[Grujah]

Also, vote O, for reasons in post before, it seems weird and odd to me. I am not that sure on j to hammer, and jumping out from not really following the thread to hammer is not fair. But will try to reading his posts in the morning. Little IsoDom now than than sleep.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-16

Galzria (1): popsofctown
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): O
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (1): Grujah

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, Galzria

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Axxle]

I hate that O is voting all the time but always staying clear from main bandwagons.

Didn't notice that before, good detective work.

[O]

I vote scum, not bandwagons.

Every time i've wagoned someone with no role knowledge they've been town, not scum.

Jo is obvtown.

[Galzria]

Alright gentlemen. What's the plan? This thread has been stalled for much too long. Every once in awhile something happens, there's a brief spark, and then silence. We're not forcing the Mafia to speak, and that is never going to get us anywhere. You're not going to just check back in and find a dandy little Mafia identifying post.

I'm not in a rush to lynch (I know Robz and Axxle want Jo's head and be done with it), but the deadline IS this coming Monday, correct? If we the town don't talk, the Mafia certainly aren't going to start generating conversation. So let's go. I don't care if every idea has been rehashed to pieces, we need to do SOMETHING.

So, Grujah posted. Didn't give much. SFS posted. Didn't give much. I haven't seen anything substantial from Glooble recently, and although I personally have little interaction with him this game, I can't really disagree with the arguments set forth against him.

I think there is merit in waiting on a decision regarding Pops. Investigative roles could search myself or him hoping to come out with a cleaner read on the situation. I have a tendency to ignore what our PR's can add to a game (M-II being my largest experience draw, and as we lynched the Cop N1, I never got a feel for what he could do first hand - although I note his success in M-I and M-III).

So that leaves me looking at Axxle and Glooble for now. There seems to be good cases for both, and although I lean towards Axxle being more likely of the two to be Mafia, I still feel there is a good chance Glooble is, and a lynch there would be much more enlightening.

So Vote: Glooble. Let's get some conversation going again. Make the Mafia have to work to hide.

[Robz888]

Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.

I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.

I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.

It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.

[Galzria]

Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.

I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.

I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.

It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.

I don't suspect Jo, and shouldn't have voted for him out of frustration. His play has been, as I said, irksome. But not scummy.

[Robz888]

Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.

I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.

I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.

It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.

I don't suspect Jo, and shouldn't have voted for him out of frustration. His play has been, as I said, irksome. But not scummy.

You voted for him twice today and once yesterday.

[Galzria]

Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. You are frustrating me.

I SAID we should vote for Glooble. I laid out a big case against him and I voted for him. And you responded by saying I was the Serial Killer, and then later revealed that as a ploy, and as a result my argument against Glooble was totally buried.

I'm back toward leaning on thinking it's Jo, and here you are, getting on all the other bandwagons but the one I want.

It seems to me you are further muddying the waters at the end of a long and puzzling day. And I wonder if this is what you've been doing all along.

Also, I neither believe your case was buried, nor forgotten. You seem to take issue with my vote on Glooble. Do you no longer believe your own case against him? I found it, asking with others, rather compelling. And outside of voting for Jo last night (which I should not have done), I've been pretty straight forward with my thoughts. I've voted for Pops, and I've now voted for Glooble.

I think your read on Glooble could be accurate. I think your read on Jo is most likely wrong, even though he has annoyed me just as much as he has you. Annoyance is not a scum tell. Otherwise I would've sworn O was Mafia in M-III..

You never explained, by the way, why Pops antagonistic play is "too obv to be Mafia", but Jo's antagonistic play is "obvscum".

Still, unless you have no faith in your own argument against Glooble, I fail to see why my voting for him should bother you?

[Galzria]

"I found it, as with others" ** Correction to mistype above.

[O]

Scummy:
Glooble (for making inane posts)
Grujah ("derp not bandwagoning townies is a scumtell")
Pops (For controlling the game)
CF (Policy-scummy read)
Galz (For agreeing with me)

Town-reads:
Dsell
O
Robz

helpless townie reads:
Jo
SFS

BRB finding out who else is in this mafia game that's alive

[O]

Tables and Axxle: obvscum because I forgot they were in the game.

[Galzria]

It's scummy to agree with you? Odd reason, but ok. Besides, you agreed with me insofar as Jo was concerned. I may have voted for him (which I regret doing), but my reasons were pretty much that while I doubt he's scum, he's driving me up the wall. Wrong reasons to vote for someone, I know, hence my unvote.

[O]

It's scummy to agree with you? Odd reason, but ok. Besides, you agreed with me insofar as Jo was concerned. I may have voted for him (which I regret doing), but my reasons were pretty much that while I doubt he's scum, he's driving me up the wall. Wrong reasons to vote for someone, I know, hence my unvote.

I've turned not-troll in M5, not M4 bro.

[Axxle]

I thought I made it clear earlier that I was also for a Glooble lynch.  It may tell us more about Galz, Robz, and Joth I think. 

I still think that their either both scum or both town though.

Joth, what's your read on Glooble? (If he's given it before please point me to it)

[Galzria]

It's scummy to agree with you? Odd reason, but ok. Besides, you agreed with me insofar as Jo was concerned. I may have voted for him (which I regret doing), but my reasons were pretty much that while I doubt he's scum, he's driving me up the wall. Wrong reasons to vote for someone, I know, hence my unvote.

I've turned not-troll in M5, not M4 bro.

But... But... I can't keep track of two O's at once!

[jotheonah]

I don't trust my read on Glooble, basically. I think I'm inclined to trust him more than I ought, because of twinniness.

So take this with a grain of salt: I've read him as newbish town. And his posting has gotten better as the game's gone on.

[Axxle]

I don't trust my read on Glooble, basically. I think I'm inclined to trust him more than I ought, because of twinniness.

So take this with a grain of salt: I've read him as newbish town. And his posting has gotten better as the game's gone on.

I'll take it with as much salt as I want to, thank you very much!

I also expected you to distance yourself from him with that question if you were scum.  I'm starting to think my vote is in the wrong place.

[Robz888]

You never explained, by the way, why Pops antagonistic play is "too obv to be Mafia", but Jo's antagonistic play is "obvscum".

Still, unless you have no faith in your own argument against Glooble, I fail to see why my voting for him should bother you?

The idea that Jo and Pops are playing similarly antagonistic games is ludicrous. Jo is a chameleon--he changes what he is doing/saying/thinking at the drop of the hat. He is waay to reactive. And confrontational. And directionless. And a liar about not caring whether he dies.

Pops is a consistent irritant.

Well, I had more faith in my Glooble argument before the twin-claim. It seems like you, and maybe another person or two, want to protect Jo. So either I have to trust me reading of Jo, or I trust you. (Unfortunately, I trust neither...)

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-17

Galzria (1): popsofctown
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (2): O, Galzria
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (1): Grujah

Not voting {1}: Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Galzria]

You never explained, by the way, why Pops antagonistic play is "too obv to be Mafia", but Jo's antagonistic play is "obvscum".

Still, unless you have no faith in your own argument against Glooble, I fail to see why my voting for him should bother you?

The idea that Jo and Pops are playing similarly antagonistic games is ludicrous. Jo is a chameleon--he changes what he is doing/saying/thinking at the drop of the hat. He is waay to reactive. And confrontational. And directionless. And a liar about not caring whether he dies.

Pops is a consistent irritant.

Well, I had more faith in my Glooble argument before the twin-claim. It seems like you, and maybe another person or two, want to protect Jo. So either I have to trust me reading of Jo, or I trust you. (Unfortunately, I trust neither...)

Did you miss the part where I was voting for Jo not 4 pages back? When he was at L-1 with C.F. All but likely to close him out? Yeah, thought so.

I'm not "protecting" him, I think he's a bad lynch. Pops thinks he's town. O thinks he's town. Glooble thinks he's town. I think he's town. Jo claims town.

But hey, we must all be protecting him.

Honestly Robz, when was the last time you saw Mafia members "protect" each other like that? Your suggestion is to ridiculous it bears little merit in a rebuttal. Did I ever try and shield you from suspicion? Were you ever even half as crazy and likely to be lynched at any moment?

I'm going to agree with O again.

"Derp, not pushing town wagons is a scumtell"

If it weren't for the fact that I really believe you to be town, your irrational push here and the way you're trying to get people to feel obligated to get on that wagon would feel very scummy.

Also, I never suggested Pops and Jo were playing similarly. I said that they are both playing irritating games that borderline scumminess. Both have been rather obvious and at the forefront of attention since D1. You draw the conclusion that a less experienced Mafia (Jo) is more likely than am experienced Mafia (Pops) to intentionally play the "look at me, look at me" gambit of hiding in public view. I really, really doubt it. If anything JO would not be this obvious as Mafia because he'd be to scared of getting called out. Pops would feel confident that he could brush aside the suspicion and continue to play in his style.

Lynch Jo if you must, fine. I hope he comes up Mafia. I just REALLY don't think he will, and I think there are a lot better targets. For one, the twinclaim to me makes it MORE likely Glooble is Mafia, not less. I'm not entirely sure why that would suddenly make a doubter of you after you put together your big, long case against him...

[Grujah]

Grujah ("derp not bandwagoning townies is a scumtell")

Well, it seems not aging with you is scummy as well. Ok, it might be a honest townie scumhunting on its own, not caring for "big mouth" players. OTOH, it might be a easy way to feign activity and still be clear when a misslynch happens. Definately a way to lurk without actually lurking. Could it be either of those? Undoubtedly, yes. Thing is, it seems to be a patterned behavior. That on its own is scummy. Easy to do and call it a playstyle. Really, just a thing I picked up, though it might be worth mentioning. I scimmed through some mafiascum games actually, and this actually isn't that uncommon mafia (or I had a really small sample). Kinda weird you got a bit jumpy there.

Alright gentlemen. What's the plan? This thread has been stalled for much too long. Every once in awhile something happens, there's a brief spark, and then silence. We're not forcing the Mafia to speak, and that is never going to get us anywhere. You're not going to just check back in and find a dandy little Mafia identifying post.

I'm not in a rush to lynch (I know Robz and Axxle want Jo's head and be done with it), but the deadline IS this coming Monday, correct? If we the town don't talk, the Mafia certainly aren't going to start generating conversation. So let's go. I don't care if every idea has been rehashed to pieces, we need to do SOMETHING.

Like how you insist that "Mafia doesn't talk, townies need to make them"  through out the post (which also fits cause you talk the most and that auto-towns you) and than:

So Vote: Glooble. Let's get some conversation going again. Make the Mafia have to work to hide.

So how exactly is this a big move that gets Mafia out of hiding?

[Captain_Frisk]

Lynch Jo if you must, fine. I hope he comes up Mafia. I just REALLY don't think he will, and I think there are a lot better targets. For one, the twinclaim to me makes it MORE likely Glooble is Mafia, not less. I'm not entirely sure why that would suddenly make a doubter of you after you put together your big, long case against him...

I can't speak for RobZ, but for me the twinclaim strikes me as totally unecessary as Mafia.  It's jumping out in the middle of the street and saying "look at me" well before there was any serious pressure on Glooble.  This is something you just suggested that inexperienced Mafia would NOT do.

I want to agree with RobZ that Galzria's Glooble vote is trying to muddy the waters, but it seems to me that Galz could just sit back if and do nothing if he really wanted to.

I also keep coming seeing Galz as "defensive" of J, with the L-1 vote as a potential bussing ploy.  (Hopefully it gets written off as J craziness, but it looks like J is going to get lynched anyway, Galz might as well get some town-cred out of it).  I was not willing to hammer J in a situation in which J was self voting, denying us information in the event that J flips town, but boy did I want to.

I want to vote for Galz / J, but I'm not confident in seeing pairs at this point.  If Galz is mafia - then I think J is a reasonable choice, but if we lynch J and he flips town, then I don't know what this tells us.  If I'm wrong on Galz - then we lynch someone who's reads I trust - except for this Glooble business... and this serial killer RobZ business...

J - one of the things that has consistently been pointed out is the difference in your play in this game and in Mafia II.  Clearly, Mafia III went wrong for you.  Can you care to explain why you are (as claimed town) playing so crazy in this game?

[jotheonah]

The explanations are all over the thread and they form a twisty but very reasonable progression of decisions. It's not as simple as "I decided to be crazy and here's why"

But let me summarize, off the top of my head, a few reasons for behavior that comes off weird:

- From the top I decided to play this game more casually, thinking less about each post
   - This is partly a function of my changing schedule. During MII I had a lot of time on my hands in which I could analyze, re-read, and post Walls o' text. During this game I have a computer-oriented 9-6 day job which lets me pop in and post things without feeling too guilty, but I would feel like a bad employee if I sat here at work re-reading the 70-page thread. So a lot of short, less-thought-out posts.
   - This is also partly an attempt to imitate O's more impish playing style, which sort of looked fun.
   - I guess the third thing, that I couldn't talk about before, is that while MIII was going, I had to play very carefully in there as SK and think carefully about every post. So I was drawn even more to just be fast and lose in here.

- That decision led me to do some stupid things, like the premature VT claim (which didn't strike me as a mistake at the time, but in retrospect I see why it's bad)
- Once I had done some stupid things and people were all after me, and pops told me my wagon was informative, I thought maybe the best thing was to let myself be lynched and hope that was more helpful to the town than me sticking around. The town didn't go for it.
   - Despite my willingness to be a sacrificial lamb, what I find to be the most frustrating is when I feel like absolutely no one is listening to me or engaging my questions. It's also kind of frustrating the number of no-win situations Robz has painted me into.  These things pushed me over the edge into crazy town yesterday (RL). I apologize for that, but man it happens sometimes. I get way too invested in these games.

- In the meantime I have oscillated between a "Fuck it I've already screwed up might as well just say whatever's on my mind even if it comes off scummy" playstyle and a "I'm determined to be a helpful townie and regain my credibility" playstyle, kind of depending on my mood and stress level. I think this has added to everyone's confusion considerably.

That was much longer than I meant it to be. But I hope it answers your question, CF.

[jotheonah]

*fast and loose

[Galzria]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

[Captain_Frisk]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

Ha!  I'm moving up in the world of Galz suspicion.

I have a suspicion that either of us (as town) are likely to see the other as potential Mafia, based on who voted for Axxle1.  In my mind - if we lynch J, and he flips mafia, then I would suspect you heavily... I would even point to this above post as paving the grounds for a day 3 lynch of town.  If I really thought that J was mafia, then I would have hammered him.  I tend to agree with him on the frustration of the town ganging up on him for no reason - based on how I feel when someone points the FOS @ me, and then watching theory rage against the universe when being lynched, despite the fact that he's such a nice mild mannered dude IRL. 

I tend to agree with your list from a few pages back... I'm not a big fan of Pops / Axxle either.  I want to let you and J off the hook, but I'm really not understanding this Glooble vote.

[Glooble]

This is harder than it looks. The more people are suspicious of me, the less I feel like contributing for fear of accidentally saying something else that makes me look totally scummy. I feel like every time I post, people jump on me. So I lurk, which also looks scummy, but in this not-very-active town there isn't as much pressure to contribute. That's a bad setup for town, and a good one for Mafia. This is almost certainly a town where mafia is hiding in the shadows, and I fully understand how we all reached that conclusion and why that makes me look very bad right now.

I don't know what to do about it. I could give you in-depth reasons for every suspicious looking post I've made, but I could do that just as easily if I were scum. Still, if people want that, I will happily do it.

If I actually try to scumhunt, I'm "deflecting" or "redirecting" and that makes me look like mafia.

The town needs to take a good look at the possible lynch candidates, and choose one everyone agrees is most likely to be mafia, or barring that, the one who's flip would be the most instructive. If that turns out to be me, I will not hold it against anyone - my play has been sub-par and I have not been the most active player. But I don't want that to happen. I think we can have a good chance of actually lynching scum tonight.

Even if Galz has given up his case against pops, I still find it compelling. Investigate him at night, sure, but that implies we have an actual cop in addition to our one-shot cop and that that person will be willing to expose himself. I don't think it's something we can count on.

I know my pops vote seemed rash and reactive, but I have since seen no reason to unvote him. If I have time today, I will look back and see if anyone seems more likely to be scum to me. I'm still getting bad vibes from Axxle2 and O.

Sorry for not being more helpful.

[Galzria]

Haha, Jo, there are times I feel your pain. If I vote for you, I'm bussing. If I don't, I'm protecting.

Honestly, looking at my past Mafia play, I would make cases against Robz, but never actually vote for him. So if you do flip Mafia, it's pretty clear to me C.F. Has played exactly like that. "Jo is scum, Jo is scum, Jo is scum", but never actually voting for you, while trying to spread suspicion on others to get the pressure off you.

So at least a Jo = Mafia flip for me will be one less Mafia, with a second likely to follow.

Ha!  I'm moving up in the world of Galz suspicion.

I have a suspicion that either of us (as town) are likely to see the other as potential Mafia, based on who voted for Axxle1.  In my mind - if we lynch J, and he flips mafia, then I would suspect you heavily... I would even point to this above post as paving the grounds for a day 3 lynch of town.  If I really thought that J was mafia, then I would have hammered him.  I tend to agree with him on the frustration of the town ganging up on him for no reason - based on how I feel when someone points the FOS @ me, and then watching theory rage against the universe when being lynched, despite the fact that he's such a nice mild mannered dude IRL. 

I tend to agree with your list from a few pages back... I'm not a big fan of Pops / Axxle either.  I want to let you and J off the hook, but I'm really not understanding this Glooble vote.

That above post, if J is Mafia, does not pave the way to a D3 town lynch, it paves the way to his Mafia partner who talks a big game about voting for him but never does, because he would rather not bus his partner if he can still shift suspicion.

Luckily for you, I don't believe Jo is Mafia, so the above scenario is moot. My point is that the shoe fits anywhere you want to put it. If Jo gets lynched, which is certainly still likely at this point, I would expect him to flip town. If he does, you're rather clear in my book for showing the same hesitancy I am to push a townie lynch wagon.

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

[Galzria]

This is harder than it looks. The more people are suspicious of me, the less I feel like contributing for fear of accidentally saying something else that makes me look totally scummy. I feel like every time I post, people jump on me. So I lurk, which also looks scummy, but in this not-very-active town there isn't as much pressure to contribute. That's a bad setup for town, and a good one for Mafia. This is almost certainly a town where mafia is hiding in the shadows, and I fully understand how we all reached that conclusion and why that makes me look very bad right now.

I don't know what to do about it. I could give you in-depth reasons for every suspicious looking post I've made, but I could do that just as easily if I were scum. Still, if people want that, I will happily do it.

If I actually try to scumhunt, I'm "deflecting" or "redirecting" and that makes me look like mafia.

The town needs to take a good look at the possible lynch candidates, and choose one everyone agrees is most likely to be mafia, or barring that, the one who's flip would be the most instructive. If that turns out to be me, I will not hold it against anyone - my play has been sub-par and I have not been the most active player. But I don't want that to happen. I think we can have a good chance of actually lynching scum tonight.

Even if Galz has given up his case against pops, I still find it compelling. Investigate him at night, sure, but that implies we have an actual cop in addition to our one-shot cop and that that person will be willing to expose himself. I don't think it's something we can count on.

I know my pops vote seemed rash and reactive, but I have since seen no reason to unvote him. If I have time today, I will look back and see if anyone seems more likely to be scum to me. I'm still getting bad vibes from Axxle2 and O.

Sorry for not being more helpful.

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Lurking is never a solution. All you can do is keep playing, scumhunting, and deflect to the best of your ability. It is harder than it looks. But never take anything personally. Insults may be thrown, or names called, but at the start of the next game, we're all "friends" again. Unless you're scum. Then get out of my town!

[Galzria]

Every time you talk*

[Galzria]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

[Captain_Frisk]

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Isn't this what we just did to eachother (emphasis mine?)

[Galzria]

Welcome to Mafia. Learn to love the suspicion. Really, if you're playing well as town, and the other townies don't suspect you, well expect the Mafia to come along and taint your name. Nobody is a Saint, and everybody is suspicious, and everyone you talk your posts will be WIFOM'd to death until there is a strong case both for, and against you.

Isn't this what we just did to eachother (emphasis mine?)

Are you implying we're both Mafia? If that's true on your side, I'll trade my life for a Mafia kill.

Sadly, as I don't think you're scum (not unless Jo is Mafia), lynching both of us would be really, really bad for the town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sadly, as I don't think you're scum (not unless Jo is Mafia), lynching both of us would be really, really bad for the town.

Let's talk about Axxle2 for a second.  What are your thoughts regarding his scumminess?  I know pops is suspicions of him as well.  I just went back and read all of his posts back to Day2 start, and frankly he reads very similar to Axxle1...  snarky, not alot of content. 

What makes Axxle2 scummier than Axxle1 (who was in fact not scum - unless we're really playing Bastard Mafia 0)

[Axxle]

Ok, reading more and more arguments from Galz as to why Joth is town (the number of people who believe it) as well as J's post here:

The explanations are all over the thread and they form a twisty but very reasonable progression of decisions. It's not as simple as "I decided to be crazy and here's why"
...

Which is detailed enough and consistent enough that I'm tending toward believing it instead of thinking it's a fabrication. 
With those two things along with J's reaction to my Glooble question earlier, I'm going to have to conclude that I am wrong about my vote on J.
Unvote
As to who we should vote tomorrow, I'm now very conflicted.  I'm thinking Glooble, but it feels like pops really hasn't given me a reason to not vote for him. Plus knowing his role will do wonders for knowing Galz's role, which I really want to verify. I'm really worried that the approaching deadline is going to cause us all to panic and create unnecessary noise similar to MIII.
PEdit: I don't think Axxle2 is scum FWIW...

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

We're looking at Axxle. We're not looking at Robz.

I get a town read from Robz, but I got a town read from Robz once before and look where it got me. The man plays the game well, and I don't particularly trust or value my gut reads. I'm starting to go from "It's frustrating that he's the one townie who's not seeing that I'm town" to "Maybe he's not seeing that I'm town on purpose."

I mean, I can see mafia defending me OR pushing me at this point, because both of those things are going to be 100% defensible even if I flip town. Which is the big problem with my play this game. BUT once we get to the point where a lot of the "good players" who I respect (Galz, O, pops) are able to look past my weird play and declare a town read, the holdouts start to look more and more suspicious.

All this could apply to Tables/SFS too, but they sort of have to be both town or both scum, given SFS's investigation claim. And everyone (myself included) seems to agree that both town is much more likely.

But voting for me is very much in character for those two as town. Axxle and Robz, less so, IMO.

[jotheonah]

I kind of wish I were a mafia mastermind.  I would look an awful lot better coming out of this game. As it is, I'm going to have to tread hella carefully in MVI if I draw town.

[Captain_Frisk]

PEdit: I don't think Axxle2 is scum FWIW...

If you aren't confident on that statement, you would be a pretty poor town player.

[Grujah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

Didn't really follow him much, care to elaborate your case or point me to a post where you did that?

[jotheonah]

Could it be as simple and obvious as a Robz/Axxle mafia as the two big names that are pushing the heck out of my wagon?

Probably not. But it does seem weird that we're not really looking at that possibility.

Axxle2 is one of the scummiest people itt.

We're looking at Axxle. We're not looking at Robz.

I get a town read from Robz, but I got a town read from Robz once before and look where it got me. The man plays the game well, and I don't particularly trust or value my gut reads. I'm starting to go from "It's frustrating that he's the one townie who's not seeing that I'm town" to "Maybe he's not seeing that I'm town on purpose."

I mean, I can see mafia defending me OR pushing me at this point, because both of those things are going to be 100% defensible even if I flip town. Which is the big problem with my play this game. BUT once we get to the point where a lot of the "good players" who I respect (Galz, O, pops) are able to look past my weird play and declare a town read, the holdouts start to look more and more suspicious.

All this could apply to Tables/SFS too, but they sort of have to be both town or both scum, given SFS's investigation claim. And everyone (myself included) seems to agree that both town is much more likely.

But voting for me is very much in character for those two as town. Axxle and Robz, less so, IMO.

I feel remiss not mentioning the fifth (actually first) person on my wagon: Dsell.

I will say it again. I keep forgetting he's in this game, and that scares me.

On my wagon, scummiest to least scummy:
Axxle (until recently)
Robz
Dsell
Tables
SFS

Off my wagon, scummiest to least scummy:
Grujah
pops
Galzria
Captain_Frisk
Glooble
O

So that's where I am.

[Tables]

Joth's wagon now is interesting. Now the votes are down to 4, though, I think I need to look closely at when people unvoted. I suspect that, if Joth is town (which I still think there's a less than 50% chance of), then some of the mafia were probably on it, and probably jumped off vaguely when the wagon started to look unlikely to succeed - as then suspicion would fall on those still on the wagon if/when we knew Joth's loyalty. That would make Axxle and... I'm not sure who else potential suspects.

I've looked over my notes, and it seems to me the player whose contributed the least in terms of analysis I thought was notable, is O. Which is suprirsing. I think I mentioned this briefly at the end of day 1, that I found something odd about his posts, but now I'm beginning to think he may have been playing a long IIoA game. I've just reviewed his posts in the last 20 pages. There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis. The closest he really seemed to come to contributing anything particularly was when he linked to the Tarlihunder tells (or whatever).

I'm not going to vote for O, because I'm more suspicious of Joth and don't think we'd lynch him today unless a lot of other people are suspicious of him, but so everyone knows, FoS: O

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-18

Galzria (1): popsofctown
jotheonah (4): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (2): O, Galzria
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (1): Grujah

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Axxle]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

[Galzria]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

[Captain_Frisk]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

I'd Frisk-personal-policy-lynch O because I don't like his playstyle, he got me killed in M3 (rage!), and he continues to think I'm scum everywhere I go, but I see no evidence from him that justifies a legitimate scumread, which is probably just the way O likes it, scum or not.

So we've had 1 full wagon of J, and 2 mini wagons on Galz and Pops.  Did these fizzle because we were targeting mafia and couldn't push them over because we need something like 7/9 non mafia to vote, or did they fizzle because the arguments were just no good?  They could also fizzle because we have several non frequent posters: SFS, Tables, Grujah, Glooble.

[Galzria]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

He's pretty high town read for me, and I think Jo and C.F. as well. I could see lots of people being deadline lynches (and I'm still one of them), but not O.

I'd Frisk-personal-policy-lynch O because I don't like his playstyle, he got me killed in M3 (rage!), and he continues to think I'm scum everywhere I go, but I see no evidence from him that justifies a legitimate scumread, which is probably just the way O likes it, scum or not.

So we've had 1 full wagon of J, and 2 mini wagons on Galz and Pops.  Did these fizzle because we were targeting mafia and couldn't push them over because we need something like 7/9 non mafia to vote, or did they fizzle because the arguments were just no good?  They could also fizzle because we have several non frequent posters: SFS, Tables, Grujah, Glooble.

That's actually a REALLY good point about the infrequent posters. With 12 alive, even assuming only 3 Mafia (possibly 4?), that leaves 9 people to hit Mafia today, 7 of which must vote together. If all, or any number of the infrequent posters are town, that makes it exponentially harder, as they may come in to vote, but aren't around to do much scumhunting.

Hmm... Food for thought on our odds. :-/

[Tables]

Erm, I really don't think I post infrequently enough to be lumped with the other semi-lurkers. Not that it really matters, but I at least post 1-3 times almost every day...

[Captain_Frisk]

That's actually a REALLY good point about the infrequent posters. With 12 alive, even assuming only 3 Mafia (possibly 4?), that leaves 9 people to hit Mafia today, 7 of which must vote together. If all, or any number of the infrequent posters are town, that makes it exponentially harder, as they may come in to vote, but aren't around to do much scumhunting.

Hmm... Food for thought on our odds. :-/

Yeah - I said ~7/9 as an average - since we can be as bad as 7 out of 8 (4 mafia - no serial killer) to 7 out of 10 (2 mafia).  Either way, if a decent # of lurkers are town, we're in trouble. 

The night kill makes me feel like the 4 mafia solution is a little less likely given that there is definitely something out there with NK powers.  I assume if the setup is reasonably balanced, we'd have some nice powers to deal with either 4 mafia / 3 mafia + SK.

I would find it hilarious if have a bunch of vanilla townies, only 2 mafia, and an overactive vig, and a 1 shot cop.  Is the vig even an asset in that situation?

[O]

There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.

Bullcrap. I made the point that survivalist tell isn't scumtell.

What analysis have you made?

Also I've been in Hawaii for a week. Still posted a bunch but I really hate Ipads and won't post anything long on them.

Vote:Tables for lurking, then redirection for bad reasons.

[popsofctown]

There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.

Bullcrap. I made the point that survivalist tell isn't scumtell.

What analysis have you made?

Also I've been in Hawaii for a week. Still posted a bunch but I really hate Ipads and won't post anything long on them.

Vote:Tables for lurking, then redirection for bad reasons.

I quoted the immediately preceding post (unless I get ninja'ed).
I demand stickers.

O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not.  For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.

Vote: O

It's a pretty ugly omgus too.

[Tables]

Do I even need to explain how terrible that post is?

Unvote, Vote: O for OMGUSing, making fake accusations and redirection for terrible reasons.

What analysis have I made? I made a post last page about how O's been lurking, about Joth's wagon, on Joth's behavior and on the Pops/Galz debate. And that's just from page 70 onwards.

I don't post often because I'm not online often, but when I post my posts have substance. That's something you've been lacking right from day 1.

And as I typed this Pops has jumped in. Which is interesting. I was going to unvote and vote back to Joth but... no, actually, I still think that's better. There's been so little discussion about O that if he flips town, we get nothing, while we get something from Joth, and regardless I think Joth is more likely scum.

[Tables]

*Er, Unvote, Vote: Joth.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-19

jotheonah (4): Dsell, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables
popsofctown (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): Galzria
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (2): Grujah, popsofctown
Tables (1): O

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Axxle]

... What just happened?

[popsofctown]

Why does no one listen to me.  That was a scumslip.  And why in this thread so arrogant and stuck up that they think they can read joth better than his TWIN BROTHER can. Like, I'm totally arrogant, stuck up, egotistical and full of myself but I'm STILL not enough of a winbag to play as if I can interpret joth's interpersonal communication as well as the guy with MATCHING GENETIC CODE AND CHILDHOOD can.
Like, seriously, seriously?, seriously. 

Yes, Glooble's read doesn't set joth's odds of being scum to zero.  But it should stupidly obviously be an expert opinion.  A professional poker player is reading over your shoulder telling you to fold and you're going all in.  Yeah, technically you could be right and he could be wrong, maybe you get lucky and draw a flush.  But you know that putting your money on your own abilities and not his makes you a curse word I don't want to put on f.ds.

[popsofctown]

It rhymes with molasses.  Kinda.

[jotheonah]

Explain yo'self O. IIRC you're in the SFS is obvtown camp. SFS claims to have investigated and cleared Tables. You just accused and voted Tables (I'm assuming that means you think he's mafia).

So do you (A) no longer believe SFS is town, (B) believe SFS is town but Tables somehow investigated falsely, or (C) believe Tables is town but voted him anyway?

[Axxle]

Why does no one listen to me.  That was a scumslip.  And why in this thread so arrogant and stuck up that they think they can read joth better than his TWIN BROTHER can. Like, I'm totally arrogant, stuck up, egotistical and full of myself but I'm STILL not enough of a winbag to play as if I can interpret joth's interpersonal communication as well as the guy with MATCHING GENETIC CODE AND CHILDHOOD can.
Like, seriously, seriously?, seriously. 

Yes, Glooble's read doesn't set joth's odds of being scum to zero.  But it should stupidly obviously be an expert opinion.  A professional poker player is reading over your shoulder telling you to fold and you're going all in.  Yeah, technically you could be right and he could be wrong, maybe you get lucky and draw a flush.  But you know that putting your money on your own abilities and not his makes you a curse word I don't want to put on f.ds.

This is why I said that Glooble and Joth are on the same team.  The read can be wrong if they're both scum.  I'm leaning toward them both being town atm.

[jotheonah]

pops, I am certainly listening. I want to give O a chance to defend that weirdness.

[Axxle]

Do I even need to explain how terrible that post is?

Unvote, Vote: O for OMGUSing, making fake accusations and redirection for terrible reasons.

What analysis have I made? I made a post last page about how O's been lurking, about Joth's wagon, on Joth's behavior and on the Pops/Galz debate. And that's just from page 70 onwards.

I don't post often because I'm not online often, but when I post my posts have substance. That's something you've been lacking right from day 1.

And as I typed this Pops has jumped in. Which is interesting. I was going to unvote and vote back to Joth but... no, actually, I still think that's better. There's been so little discussion about O that if he flips town, we get nothing, while we get something from Joth, and regardless I think Joth is more likely scum.

*Er, Unvote, Vote: Joth.

I don't understand what you're talking about Tables, it looks like you're responding to O, and you say you were unvoting O even though you weren't even voting O? What?

And O's retaliation against Tables is scummy too...

[Axxle]

I think you both succeeded in exploding my brain.  good work.

[Captain_Frisk]

What was up with tables double votes? I don't really understand.

[jotheonah]

Spin it out for us pops. O is (hypothetically) mafia. What does that tell us about everyone else? What other evidence is there besides this one slip? (I'm asking you because you just threw down a vote).

[jotheonah]

What was up with tables double votes? I don't really understand.

He wanted to vote for O without really voting for me because he still thinks I'm scummier and my wagon is more informative.

[Axxle]

He wanted to vote for O without really voting for me....

wat.

[O]

I forgot about the investigation. Its a fuck-up, but a town fuck-up.

And no Pops, it's not "Hawaii or not". It's not even Hawaii's fault; I believe the day started before I left? I just forgot and Tables has lurked so much that it wasn't really in my mindset.

Unvote for obvious reasons, Revote: Glooble

Table's argument is still crap. I was "lurking" because I was in Hawaii. I stated this to the group, and I made analysis, which tables claimed I didn't, because I argued that a survivalist tell is not a scumtell. So not it was not OMGUS, Eevee D1 MIII was OMGUS. This was just a response to a clearly crap-argument bandwagon lifted by Grujah and Tables.

[Captain_Frisk]

He wanted to vote for O without really voting for me....

wat.

I'm guessing autocorrect some misspelling of while changed into without

[O]

@Pops, nobody listens to you because you're just as insane and "unhelpful" as I am but without the benefit of adding humor or discussion to the thread.

I admit I fucked up, it was a town fuck-up. If I was scum I would sure as hell pay more attention to my posts then I did right there.

[popsofctown]

I can see town making that mistake, but I see scum making that mistake more often than town.  Lashing out doesn't do much good.  I've seen scum lynched for slips like that, and (fewer) town lynched for similar slips.  They happen, and they're decent material to work with.  Scum tend to know "what's going on" less in general, and it can be a helpful rule of thumb (that's largely empirical, I can't very strongly explain why).

I've made a post saying O is scummy before, I expressed that I did not like how he did not take a side day 1 amongst the leading wagons and instead just camped out a vote on me.  And then Day 2 he criticized the mislynch, as if his lack of participation in actually stringing people up was deliberate.  He also just has been largely useless, like table says.  He posts forgettably, he doesn't make a lot of posts that have me remembering "oh that guy is looking for scum".  The best thing I ever think about his posts is "this guy has a funky anti-town playstyle and I don't think I'll be able to do much to read him", which is an information vacuum that this slip expands to fill.

[Robz888]

Couple things.

O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.

Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.

[popsofctown]

It's true scum use the preview button and post more meticulously, but in this specific instance you're missing the little scorecard in the back of your head saying Tables is highprobtown.

I've read tons of Tables posts today that looked like they seem scummy as mess, but since he is actually an outlier in the extra information I have on him as a townie, I always remembered not to bother with it. 

[O]

I can see town making that mistake, but I see scum making that mistake more often than town.  Lashing out doesn't do much good.  I've seen scum lynched for slips like that, and (fewer) town lynched for similar slips.  They happen, and they're decent material to work with.  Scum tend to know "what's going on" less in general, and it can be a helpful rule of thumb (that's largely empirical, I can't very strongly explain why).

I've made a post saying O is scummy before, I expressed that I did not like how he did not take a side day 1 amongst the leading wagons and instead just camped out a vote on me.  And then Day 2 he criticized the mislynch, as if his lack of participation in actually stringing people up was deliberate.  He also just has been largely useless, like table says.  He posts forgettably, he doesn't make a lot of posts that have me remembering "oh that guy is looking for scum".  The best thing I ever think about his posts is "this guy has a funky anti-town playstyle and I don't think I'll be able to do much to read him", which is an information vacuum that this slip expands to fill.

I just find it hard to believe that this analysis is what you truly believe; primarily because your play style is so similar to mine, except without the humor.

@ your other accusations.
I parked my vote on you because I liked the idea of lynching you and because I knew I had no control over the D1 lynch anyways. Its my selfish playstyle, and this argument works whether I'm scum or town I know, but I like not being a major factor of the D1 bandwagon because I inherently get more information when I'm not in the wagon then when I am. Mafia I with Theory vs. TINAS was different; I was damn sure TINAS was townie (though I do not claim to know that he was a power role).

I don't remember "criticizing" the misslynch and don't really want to look back 100 pages, if you could bring me that quote I would love to refute that aswell.

And you just admitted you found Tables scummy postwise. I'm not as pro as you are or I'm just too damn lazy, and I just didn't remember.

Final argument before I get myself lynched because survivalist tell is scumtell... I was in Hawaii. I was in MIII (which took a LOT more of my attention as we were in lylo and had much more information), obviously am in MIV, and now MV. I was thinking about posting the sign-ups for MVI. Its not unreasonable that I forget things in one of the mafia games. (Part of the reason I'm hosting MVI is so I don't play in it...  )

[popsofctown]

Couple things.

O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.

Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.

Glooble defined a high amount of certainty on his read himself.  He said he was overall highly certain of his read.  As an example, this is much like when I played Dominion with my cousin Stephen last night.  It was his third game.  Yes he was bad at Dominion.  But he knows that.  And if you take the accuracy he assigns to his own valuation into account, you overall get a reasonable assessment of Dominion cards.  He expressed high certainty that Cache was bad.  He expressed low certainty that Nomad's Camp was a good card.  He expressed pretty high certainty that Gold was a strong card.  He expressed low certainty that Fool's Gold was a weak/average card.  If you take into account how sure he is, it doesn't matter that he is unskilled at the item in question, he knows his own limits.  Glooble knows his own limits too.  To say he doesn't know his own limits is to treat him like a 6 year old that is highly confident he can drive a car.  It's still arrogant and illogical, and largely rooted in self-directed biases.

[popsofctown]

i am unable to view all posts in this thread, Safari complains about a slow script.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Erm, I really don't think I post infrequently enough to be lumped with the other semi-lurkers. Not that it really matters, but I at least post 1-3 times almost every day...

I dont currently have time to investigate this claim, but if anyone is keeping post counts it should be easy to verify or debunk.  One of the reasons I chose Tables to investigate is that (at the time) he had almost no posts - the only person we had heard from less (as I recall) was Green Opal.

I know that I'm not posting a lot, and that perhaps things are running together for me, but the two people I feel like we almost never hear from are Grujah and Tables.  If I'm wrong, then disabuse me of my notions.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Explain yo'self O. IIRC you're in the SFS is obvtown camp. SFS claims to have investigated and cleared Tables. You just accused and voted Tables (I'm assuming that means you think he's mafia).

So do you (A) no longer believe SFS is town, (B) believe SFS is town but Tables somehow investigated falsely, or (C) believe Tables is town but voted him anyway?

DUDE, wtf?  I VERY specifically stated that I investigated Tables and he came back as town, THEN ARDUOUSLY SPELLED OUT WHAT THAT MEANT. I then later went through that again in a later post, ARDUOSLY NOT QUOTING VOLTGLOSS AS PM.  NONE OF THAT "CLEARS TABLES".

Please discontinue misrepresenting what I have said.

[popsofctown]

You're being picky SFS.  In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy.  The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten.  Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity.  No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles.  So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time.  Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced.  Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded. 

[popsofctown]

it's bad design.

[O]

Vote:SFS for making crap arguments and... no, not really. 

Unvote, Vote:Glooble because I like making the Mods life difficult apparently.

[Galzria]

Man, two hours in a Movie, and I get out to find a downright explosion of activity.

Well, I've still got some popcorn left, so...

[Robz888]

I wouldn't say it was useful activity...

[Galzria]

In all honesty, here's my read on O's slipup:

It's scummy. Of course it is. But when I put my list together of suspicion levels the investigation had slipped my mind as well. I didn't have Tables anywhere near the top of my list, but with close to 80 pages it's not hard for things to get forgotten.

eHalcyon admits in M-III to finding my case against Jo early D1 compelling, but as we neared the end of the day he pounded away at me because he recalled thinking otherwise. I lost my cool over eH's play there, and it was an honest mistake.

Hell, in another game I'm involved in, I forgot MY OWN proposal from early in the game. We all do our best, and sometimes we forget things.

Now, this doesn't EXCUSE the player for those mistakes, and they should be held accountable. Certainly in the face of no better information it's a good enough misplay to consider action on. I'm convinced we lack better information however.

[Galzria]

I'm *not* convinced we lack better information. Silly little 3 letter word. So important.

[Captain_Frisk]

iPhone posting here-will follow up with proper post when back at pc

We are running out of time and heading Into weekend. 

ReAsons to follow:

Vote: grujah

[Captain_Frisk]

Wanted to make sure discussion starts before everyone dissapears

[Galzria]

Wanted to make sure discussion starts before everyone dissapears

*poof*

[Captain_Frisk]

Wanted to make sure discussion starts before everyone dissapears

*poof*

Ok - boy nursing now... composing real post.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You're being picky SFS.  In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy.  The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten.  Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity.  No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles.  So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time.  Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced.  Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.

Pops, my intent was not to be picky, but rather to hold people accountable, which I have promised to do, and to prevent misinformation from being spread.  Given that several subsequent posts have been in the vein of "oh yeah, I forgot about that" I think its important that we accurately remember exactly what "that" was.

@Tables:  Can you explain the dichotomy between your assertions in posts #1923 and 1927 (sorry for the lack of quotes, I'm on an unfamiliar laptop with no ******* mouse but the built-in and I'm really having trouble getting everything to work easily).  In one of those two posts, you say (paraphrasing) "I don't think I'm lurking, I post 1 to 3 times a day almost every day".  In the other, you say (paraphrasing) "I dont post that often cause I'm not online often".  I don't see how both can be true, yet these assertions are only 4 posts apart.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'll try to check in on the thread again later tonight, but it will likely be in the morning tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - I started with the ASSumption that we had at least 1 mafia on the Axxle1 wagon.

This is

Galzria, J, Captain_Frisk, SFS, Pops, Glooble, Grujah, theorel

I then started ruling out people based on townread / etc.

theorel - dead
Captain_Frisk - this is me - but obviously not everyone else can cross this out.
SFS - 1 shot town claim

Glooble - twinclaim - If either of them are likely to be Mafia - I suspect J more
Jonah - twinclaim.  Still suspicious, but I'm giving him a pass for today. 

Now that leaves:

Grujah, Pops and Galzria.  I tend to think that mafia would be just fine letting a no-lynch happen, or at the very least letting us go up to the wire, and while I have suspicions of both Pops and Galz, I feel that they've each made a reasonable number of good points - and have generally been scumhunting in some manner.  I don't like Galz's crazy serial killer theory town gambit etc, and I don't really like his Glooble vote.  I also don't really like pops' recent O lynch attempt, since we're grasping at straws.  That said, I'm not 100% convinced on either of them, and at other times I'm thankful for insightful play.  Pops - your recent rebuttal to SFS was actually a reasonable argument vs. your usual blip... although can you please just start hitting the quote button?

So that leaves Grujah.  He is a lurker.  I don't know for sure that he's mafia, but I do feel that his odds of being mafia are in the same general ballpark as pops / Galz. 

If I was going to mislynch one of those 3 - I would choose Grujah in a hearbeat - ESPECIALLY as we lose more and more town, the lurkers are going to be an increasing liability - even if they are town.  Since I believe that lynch with chance @ mafia is better than no lynch: Vote: Grujah

[Glooble]

I like your thinking, Frisk. The fact is, we have too many bandwagons, and the only one that seems likely to result in a lynch is still someone I'm pretty sure is town. Most of us have someone we would be comfortable lynching, but if we can't come to a consensus, we're screwed.

I think Grujah has a high probability of being scum. I am now almost certain one of the mafia is someone with a very low post count. I know it's not me. I am leaning toward SFS being town, but regardless of my own feelings, enough people trust him that he will not get lynched today, so voting for him would be useless. I think we've officially Reached That Point.

Vote: Grujah

[Glooble]

oh, and obviously I unvote pops. I forgot, sorry. I'm still watching you, pops. I encourage our cop, if we have one, to investigate him or Galz. Or joth. Or me, for that matter. Any of those four things would be helpful.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-20

jotheonah (4): Dsell, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables
Glooble (2): Galzria, O
Axxle (1): jotheonah
O (2): Grujah, popsofctown
Grujah (2): Captain_Frisk, Glooble

Not voting {1}: Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[O]

I'm willing to consider a Grujah wagon over a Glooble wagon, but Gloobles on it... also if I vote Grujah I'm sure everyone will call it an OMGUS vote.

I honestly can't say I have great reads atm. Jo reads town, very town. Tables and SFS keep topping each other over with inane/scummy posts and yet our two closest things to confirmed town. Glooble seems slightly scummier to me than Grujah but both are relatively scummy, especially because Grujah's vote on me seems more like a calculated wagon started then a reaction to anything I said, mostly because I've never really posted much of a read on Grujah I think.

Galz reads townish to me aswell I guess.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm willing to consider a Grujah wagon over a Glooble wagon, but Gloobles on it... also if I vote Grujah I'm sure everyone will call it an OMGUS vote.

I honestly can't say I have great reads atm. Jo reads town, very town. Tables and SFS keep topping each other over with inane/scummy posts and yet our two closest things to confirmed town. Glooble seems slightly scummier to me than Grujah but both are relatively scummy, especially because Grujah's vote on me seems more like a calculated wagon started then a reaction to anything I said, mostly because I've never really posted much of a read on Grujah I think.

Galz reads townish to me aswell I guess.

I have to say, I was less than enthused for glooble to be the first to join me.

[popsofctown]

Ok, if this post lacks context, it's because f.ds is lagging for me right now, I swear.

Grujah is a good consensus lynch this close to deadline.  His vote history is terrible, he lurks, most of the people who do pipe up in thread read townish so PoE points at lurkers. 

Vote: Grujah

We'll have another three weeks to figure out the active players.

@SFS

-Since O's defense had nothing to do with the negligible possibility Tables is scum, joth's simplification of your investigation is a reasonable representation.  Thus you were nitpicking.  I'm not trying to say you knew you were nitpicking, but you were.  Joth is probably aware the failure rate for your investigation is but a fraction, and didn't bother cluttering his post with that possibility.

This argument isn't very indicative of anyone's alignment so I should probably stop.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Grujah


he said, surprising no one.

[O]

Well, I guess I have to wagon at some point

Vote: Grujah

[jotheonah]

We do have the weekend, so anyone thinking about hammering, please do Grujah the courtesy of letting him get a rebuttal/ plea/ something in if it's possible. It could be enlightening.

[jotheonah]

oh god what if he role claims.

[Galzria]

Wow, how is it in a span of ten posts I can go from middling/high suspicion of a guy to really uncomfortable? I guess this is where I'm supposed to run the wagon home, but my goodness it started rolling quick.

The interesting thing is the spread of players (on my suspicion list) on this wagon. We range from O (decent town read), to Pops (strongest Mafia read), and just about everywhere in between.

And yet I really can't DISLIKE this wagon. Hmm... could this honestly be a quick rolling town wagon on scum? Gah. Don't trust it.

[jotheonah]

Wow, how is it in a span of ten posts I can go from middling/high suspicion of a guy to really uncomfortable? I guess this is where I'm supposed to run the wagon home, but my goodness it started rolling quick.

The interesting thing is the spread of players (on my suspicion list) on this wagon. We range from O (decent town read), to Pops (strongest Mafia read), and just about everywhere in between.

And yet I really can't DISLIKE this wagon. Hmm... could this honestly be a quick rolling town wagon on scum? Gah. Don't trust it.

I was gonna make exactly the same post but didn't want to be accused of hedging. But yeah it's a little disconcerting.

[O]

I believe we all (except maybe Pops) feel that way.

[Galzria]

Alright, Grujah is L-2 right now, and Axxle just logged in, lurked, and logged off. I don't trust his silence, so let's go one more.

Vote: Grujah

[popsofctown]

I believe we all (except maybe Pops) feel that way.

I believe everyone except for me feels that way.

[Robz888]

Stop, halt, desist.

[Robz888]

I'm now almost certain Grujah is NOT mafia, due to the ease with which he gets to 1 vote short of lynch.

There's 6 of you voting this way. I'd bet 3 or 4 of you are getting seriously outplayed by the 2 or 3 of you who are mafia.

I need to go back and look at something. I'll have more in a minute. I'm begging one of you to unvote immediately.

[Glooble]

Fine, Robz. I will hear you out.

Unvote.

[Glooble]

I feel like we've been saying "worst case scenario, we could just lynch Grujah" all day, but this time it took because we're all so sick of this day and want it to end. Grujah is nobody's number one suspect, but he's a lynch we can all get behind.

[O]

I'm now almost certain Grujah is NOT mafia, due to the ease with which he gets to 1 vote short of lynch.

There's 6 of you voting this way. I'd bet 3 or 4 of you are getting seriously outplayed by the 2 or 3 of you who are mafia.

I need to go back and look at something. I'll have more in a minute. I'm begging one of you to unvote immediately.

So.. the easy Axxle wagon D1 has 1 mafia according to you, and the grujah wagon has 2-3?

Robz just went up on my scummy list due to that logic. I feel like he's probably protecting Grujah, who is his teammate. Otherwise he would have let Grujah be lynched and then used his flip to further his argument (if he was town and correct).

[Robz888]

Let's look back to Day 1. Here are the people who voted to mislynch Axxle1:

Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel

Let me eliminate the deceased (theorel). I will also eliminate SFS, who we all pretty much assume is town based on his claim. I will also eliminate Grujah, because I am comparing this to the people who are voting Grujah, and obviously Grujah wouldn't be one of them.

Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel

Who is left? The exact same people who are now voting for Grujah, plus O. Grujah voters:

Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Pops, Jo, Galzria, O

First, you people don't have a good track record. But whatever, we need to lynch someone, fine. Doesn't this give you pause? That the exact same people got together and upped this so quickly? When wagons against other people who were in this group--like Jo--failed to get enough votes?

I'm not even sure who I'm talking to, because my best guess is all 3 mafia are in there. But whichever 3 of you are not mafia, just think about this. It's the same people pushing this vote. The closest thing we have to confirmed townies are SFS and Tables, and they aren't on this thing. I'm not on this thing, and I've pretty much given off a town read to everyone. Who knows about Dsell, although I don't think he is scum. And the case against Axxle2, I just don't see it at all. What I'm saying is, we are all keeping off this bandwagon right now, and Grujah was top of many people's suspicions... but he's so easy for the mafia to build a quick end-of-day campaign against.

I have no idea which of the people in this wagon are the mafia, although I am starting to get a very bad feeling about Galzria, in addition to my pre-existing suspicions of Jo and Glooble. But honestly, I'm sure at least 2 of those calls are wrong, I'm just not sure which. I'm cognizant of the fact that O was not on the Day 1 wagon, but he is here, when the mafia might really need all 3 to score the kill. In light of his slip up about Tables, that could say something. Maybe I suspect Frisk and Pops less than the others? Frisk for starting this wagon, rather than riding it, and Pops for drawing so much fire earlier from many of these same people. But I just don't know. Feel free to disagree with those reasons and pick them apart.

Obviously, I need help here to make this case. And I know that at least half of you are actually part of the town. But look around. This bandwagon looks scummy as all hell. Or am I crazy?

[Robz888]

Points to Glooble for unvoting. Negative points to O for ridiculous statement about me trying to defend Grujah. I was the first person to call him scummy on Day 1 (not that I expect you to remember that).

[O]

...you put ALL three mafia in a 5man bandwagon, and none on Me, Glooble or Jo?

You used numbers at first that implied that 1 mafia was within the Axxle wagon, now you're saying 3 mafia. Even with the addittion of me (you assuming, falsely, that I'm scum) that doesn't add up.

I think it's ludicrous to say that 3 mafia are among these 5 people. I don't think all of the 2-4 (probably 3) mafia would all jump in a bandwagon TWO DAYS IN A ROW. That just seems ridiculous. I'm not sure where you put possible SK in your "scum" count.

Grujah has clear, obvious reasons to be lynched -> He lurks, has made generally unhelpful posts that appear slightly scummy to me at least. There are crap-logic bandwagons against Jo, and yet you claim that those wagons are empty of scum.

[Galzria]

Yes, because calling somebody scummy D1 SO clears you as a possible teammate.

[O]

Points to Glooble for unvoting. Negative points to O for ridiculous statement about me trying to defend Grujah. I was the first person to call him scummy on Day 1 (not that I expect you to remember that).

Oh come on. You know your math doesn't add up. I'm pretty sure it wasn't just Captain Frisk who said 1 scum in the Axxle wagon, and that it was you too.. though I'll have to look back to check.

[Robz888]

...you put ALL three mafia in a 5man bandwagon, and none on Me, Glooble or Jo?

You used numbers at first that implied that 1 mafia was within the Axxle wagon, now you're saying 3 mafia. Even with the addittion of me (you assuming, falsely, that I'm scum) that doesn't add up.

I think it's ludicrous to say that 3 mafia are among these 5 people. I don't think all of the 2-4 (probably 3) mafia would all jump in a bandwagon TWO DAYS IN A ROW. That just seems ridiculous. I'm not sure where you put possible SK in your "scum" count.

Grujah has clear, obvious reasons to be lynched -> He lurks, has made generally unhelpful posts that appear slightly scummy to me at least. There are crap-logic bandwagons against Jo, and yet you claim that those wagons are empty of scum.

It's a 6 man bandwagon, with 2-3 mafia. Very well could be 3. None of the other people are people I really suspect, I've realized. I don't think there was 1 scum on the Axxle wagon. Forgive me if I said otherwise, I think from the start though I assumed there were 2. In fact, I ACTUALLY think I suggested there might be all 3. But perhaps it's just the 2, and you.

Certainly, some of them have participated in some of the other bandwagons against you, Glooble, Jo. I don't know which of these people were mafia, and which of these people were victims.

But the ease with which Grujah accumulated 6 votes from the 5 people who lynched wrong last time tells me something very scary.

[O]

I just read back and it wasn't you who made the analysis I was remembering. So at least your math adds up, my bad.

Still seeings some uncomfortable linkages between you and Grujah, though. Its like Me/Tinas in M1 except TINAS actually did actions that convinced me he was town whereas you pretty much only have votes to go on.

[Robz888]

Yes, because calling somebody scummy D1 SO clears you as a possible teammate.

Obviously not. But I was literally the first person to call him out:

Here's what I'm curious about at the moment. It seems that someone will say, "Hey, look what this person did. Suspicious. VOTE: THEM." And then two or three other people will instantly jump on that vote, sometimes with no explanation.

VOTE: POPSOFCTOWN

I'm interested in seeing where this leads, with my above suspicions as my reasonings.

Unvote Insomniac
Vote Pops

So, you were won over to that pretty easily, eh Grujah?

[O]

So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?

[Glooble]

Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days. Do you think no lynch gives us better odds than lynching Grujah? Enough to make up for the loss of concrete information we would gain from a lynch?

[Axxle]

Drinking, so don't want to vote.  Checking site is part of phone ritual.

[jotheonah]

Yeah, Robz, it doesn't do a lot of good for you to jump out and say Stop! Don't vote Grujah! Vote more or less everyone else! You need a plan.

I agree the wagon built up speed way too fast, but your whole case is much stronger post-flip, isn't it?  It's not impossible that this wagon is mafia-free, and it's not impossible that theres just one busser on it.

I dislike your shouting orders and doling out points to people who do things you like.

I'm standing by this lynch and waiting for the flip.

[jotheonah]

One more thing. Fast building wagon could mean we've lucked out and hit SK.

[Robz888]

So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?

SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.

These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.

Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

[O]

So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?

SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.

These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.

Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy

I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.

[jotheonah]

Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.

A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.

[jotheonah]

Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.

[Robz888]

Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy

I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.

Okay, that's what I thought.

So, if my theory is correct, O is probably mafia, and he is defending the other mafia, which is either Galzria or Jo or both. Maybe just Galzria. Possibly Frisk. I'm cooling to Jo somewhat, in light of the fact that Glooble is looking much more likely innocent to me.

On that note, UNVOTE

By the way, could be totally wrong about all of this, obviously. I need Tables and Axxle to way in here. And Dsell! When does he get back?

[O]

VOTE: CAPTAIN FRISK

K here's my plan guise
Robz joins me on this wagon
we all jump in and put CFrisk at L-2 or so
I jump out, accuse Robz of being mafia for quickwagoning

sound good guys?

[O]

Or even better... go after me quickly! Now! If I get to l-2 I'll be cleared townie and then can enjoy the rest of the game in peace.

[Robz888]

Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.

A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.

Dislike it all you like. Vote for me then.

Because I DO NOT LIKE MISLYNCHES. Never have, never will. I have always preferred no lynch to mislynch, except in MII where I was a lying scum.

So no, I'm not waiting for tomorrow. I'm bringing this up now, because the fact that Grujah rapidly accrued 6 votes from 5 of the same people who mislynched Axxle1 is astonishing and interesting and scummy.

[O]

So no, I'm not waiting for tomorrow. I'm bringing this up now, because the fact that Grujah rapidly accrued 6 votes from 5 of the same people who mislynched Axxle1 is astonishing and interesting and scummy.

Ok that's it. You find it scummy that 5 votes from Axxle wagon are on the Grujah wagon, AND THEN POINT OUT THE ONE PERSON NOT ON THE AXXLE WAGON AS MAFIA.

[Robz888]

So no, I'm not waiting for tomorrow. I'm bringing this up now, because the fact that Grujah rapidly accrued 6 votes from 5 of the same people who mislynched Axxle1 is astonishing and interesting and scummy.

Ok that's it. You find it scummy that 5 votes from Axxle wagon are on the Grujah wagon, AND THEN POINT OUT THE ONE PERSON NOT ON THE AXXLE WAGON AS MAFIA.

Well, it took you this time. They needed you.

[jotheonah]

O, you're getting awfully jumpy. for less than one vote on your head.

and it's not the first time.

[O]

Caps isn't jumpy, Jo, Caps is to highly the ridiculousness of Robz's logic.

[O]

highlight* dat autocorrect

Anyways, I agree Jo. But I really think we were damn close to lynching a scum, and now Robz (who I still think is just townie) is derailing that.

[Galzria]

Can anybody go through and list all the people Robz has all but cleared? I see 8 of 12. Great numbers for someone who knows nothing:

Pops - Too obvious to be scum, can't be Mafia
SFS - Obvtown, can't be Mafia
Grujah - Got bandwagoned, can't be Mafia
Glooble - Twinclaim, can't be Mafia
Robz - Well he's Robz,, can't be Mafia
Dsell - Opened the Jo wagon D2, can't be Mafia
Tables - Investigated innocent, can't be Mafia
Axxle2 - mislynched D1, can't be Mafia

Really now...

[jotheonah]

And the tone-down-when-called-out. And the scumslip earlier tonight. I'm revising my town read on you, O.

But I still want to lynch Grujah tonight. We need a lynch and we need real info.

[O]

Can anybody go through and list all the people Robz has all but cleared? I see 8 of 12. Great numbers for someone who knows nothing:

Pops - Too obvious to be scum, can't be Mafia
SFS - Obvtown, can't be Mafia
Grujah - Got bandwagoned, can't be Mafia
Glooble - Twinclaim, can't be Mafia
Robz - Well he's Robz,, can't be Mafia
Dsell - Opened the Jo wagon D2, can't be Mafia
Tables - Investigated innocent, can't be Mafia
Axxle2 - mislynched D1, can't be Mafia

Really now...

And with 15 players, there are anywhere from 3-5 (probably 4-5) scum. So damn, Robz has caught every mafia D2.

[O]

And the tone-down-when-called-out. And the scumslip earlier tonight. I'm revising my town read on you, O.

Er what. You said I got jumpy when called out, which was scummy. Then I toned down when called out again, which was scummy.

The jumpiness was scummy. As a townie, I want to lower my scumminess a bit. If I were scum, I'd want to lower my scumminess a bit.

So basically I understood your first point but now you're making little sense to me.

[Glooble]

Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.

He did now? I'm pretty sure you've vaguely cast suspicion on Grujah four or five times at least. I'd have to look back to be sure, but I think you've had votes on him both days. I voted for him D1 myself. He's an obvious, easy target. Frisk was the first one to put a vote to him, but I don't think that makes Frisk look worse than the rest of us. Not much anyway.

Is a no lynch better than a mislynch at this point? If we lynch Grujah and he flips town, we lose a townie who barely posts and gain at least some vaguely helpful information about who voted to lynch him. If he flips Mafia (or SK), we have more information and one fewer scum.

No lynch = no chance of decreasing scum (unless we have a vig) and significantly less data to analyze tomorrow. Unless the Mafia politely kills someone who had a bandwagon on them and we can analyze that.

SO is information worth the possibility of killing a townie who has contributed very little to the conversation? That's the question we should be asking ourselves right now, in my estimation. If I decide the answer is yes, I will revote before the deadline. Provided the grujah wagon hasn't evaporated by then.

[O]

Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.

Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.

A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.

I see two very different attitudes back to back here.

[jotheonah]

Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.

Strongly dislike the way Robz is sweeping in, making declarations, and giving specific other people limited choices about who is mafia. At best, incredibly arrogant. At worst, scum trying to manipulate town.

A mislynch is not Game Over at this point. So I'm curious about why Town Robz would try to do this drama pre-flip when it would work just as well (for town) post-flip. He is acting as if Grujah has already flipped town, when he hasn't.

I see two very different attitudes back to back here.

Correct. Robz is either right or he's wrong. But even if he's right he's wrong. That is, even if he' totally right that Grujah is town and lots of scum is on his wagon, the way he's gone about halting that lynch is anti-town and ... confusing.

But I'm trying to keep my mind open to all the different possibilities right now.

[Robz888]

Can anybody go through and list all the people Robz has all but cleared? I see 8 of 12. Great numbers for someone who knows nothing:

Pops - Too obvious to be scum, can't be Mafia
SFS - Obvtown, can't be Mafia
Grujah - Got bandwagoned, can't be Mafia
Glooble - Twinclaim, can't be Mafia
Robz - Well he's Robz,, can't be Mafia
Dsell - Opened the Jo wagon D2, can't be Mafia
Tables - Investigated innocent, can't be Mafia
Axxle2 - mislynched D1, can't be Mafia

Really now...

Galzria, that's ridiculous. I don't throw around terms like "can't be mafia." The overconfidence is all you. So don't misstate how I feel about people.

Pops - Too obvious, hard for me to believe he is scum.
SFS - Either you believe him or you don't. I believe him, as does like everybody. Therefore, probably not scum.
Grujah - Could be scum, but not if my theory is correct.
Glooble - Could be scum, but if so he is certainly keeping his cool and reacting to my theory A LOT better than the other scum.
Dsell - No opinion one way or the other. But when I have 5 or so strong suspects, yes, he's safely acquitted.
Tables - What do you want me to say, Galzria? No, he's not mafia, unless him and SFS hatched a fairly advanced plot while the rest of us went crazy. No one else is humoring this theory, why should I?
Axxle2 - Again, you're 0-1 on Axxle, but yeah, let's take your opinion on whether Axxle is mafia. Great!

I'm not clearing people. If I turn out to be wrong about Grujah, especially not. But I need to narrow it down somehow, and this Grujah bandwagon has made that much easier. A pretty clear picture of a mafia team of you, O, and I don't know, is starting to emerge. Maybe Frisk, maybe Jo. Maybe even Dsell. But yeah, right now, I'm narrowing things down. And I think I  may have just figured you out, which is why you and O are behaving this way.

[Robz888]

Also, if Robz is right, and it's very possible, CF seems like the big target. He started Grujahmania.

He did now? I'm pretty sure you've vaguely cast suspicion on Grujah four or five times at least. I'd have to look back to be sure, but I think you've had votes on him both days. I voted for him D1 myself. He's an obvious, easy target. Frisk was the first one to put a vote to him, but I don't think that makes Frisk look worse than the rest of us. Not much anyway.

Is a no lynch better than a mislynch at this point? If we lynch Grujah and he flips town, we lose a townie who barely posts and gain at least some vaguely helpful information about who voted to lynch him. If he flips Mafia (or SK), we have more information and one fewer scum.

No lynch = no chance of decreasing scum (unless we have a vig) and significantly less data to analyze tomorrow. Unless the Mafia politely kills someone who had a bandwagon on them and we can analyze that.

SO is information worth the possibility of killing a townie who has contributed very little to the conversation? That's the question we should be asking ourselves right now, in my estimation. If I decide the answer is yes, I will revote before the deadline. Provided the grujah wagon hasn't evaporated by then.

Well, if Grujah flips town, I won't be around to make my case tomorrow that the mafia are Galzria, O, Jo maybe, Frisk maybe. If he flips mafia, I was wrong, everybody go about your business.

Still, since I think I'm right, I'm for lynching one of those other people.

[Robz888]

* by not around, I mean I'll be nightkilled, not like absent or something. (If Grujah does flip mafia I expect to live, because it puts suspicion on my back.)

[O]

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.

[O]

oh, and Revote:Grujah. The Captain Frisk thing was quite clearly a joke, and nobody took some bait and took me seriously.

[Robz888]

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.

Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.

In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.

In MII I was mafia.

[O]

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.

Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.

In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.

In MII I was mafia.

You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.

[Robz888]

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

[Robz888]

You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.

Hm, your memory is awful. I emphatically did NOT join the Day 1 wagon. I voted for Eevee.

[O]

I guess it is.

Still found this

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

So yea, you're now down to 2/5.

[Robz888]

I guess it is.

Still found this

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

So yea, you're now down to 2/5.

Because I said O and Morgrim, will you admit to being the mafia? Uh.... that was needling. Trying to evoke a response. Did not think you were mafia.

[O]

Because I said O and Morgrim, will you admit to being the mafia? Uh.... that was needling. Trying to evoke a response. Did not think you were mafia.

...but the only person you did more to than needle was eevee, and even then you didn't argue altogether that much to try and get him lynched.

Anyways we're getting sidetracked here; mostly my fault. We should focus on your crackpot theory (Where you manage to accuse me, a townie, and someone I have a townread on), and how it's inane.
Mainly, pointing out trios/pairs at this point is inane. you go for singular scum, not trios.

[Robz888]

Because I said O and Morgrim, will you admit to being the mafia? Uh.... that was needling. Trying to evoke a response. Did not think you were mafia.

...but the only person you did more to than needle was eevee, and even then you didn't argue altogether that much to try and get him lynched.

Anyways we're getting sidetracked here; mostly my fault. We should focus on your crackpot theory (Where you manage to accuse me, a townie, and someone I have a townread on), and how it's inane.
Mainly, pointing out trios/pairs at this point is inane. you go for singular scum, not trios.

Okay, yes. We are getting sidetracked. Because you sidetracked us, saying more things that weren't accurate. My bad.

Now for my crackpot theory, that looks for mafia groups. This is actually the only way to really find mafia, is to start saying, "Well, if he is mafia, then not he..." etc. Too bad we have, like, way way way way too much has happened today to actualyl look at patterns like that. So I took the easiest pattern I could--lynch votes on day 1--and compared them to a possible lynch of Grujah. If you think I've misidentified you, fine. Do you honestly not see any merit in my theory?

Look, I know you all want to trust your "reads" which I think are whatever and usually wrong and were certainly wrong yesterday (not yours specifically, O--see how I manage to get your voting history correct? it's not that hard). But, look, somebody is fooling us, and doing it in groups. And this is an interesting groups. And on top of that, I think O and Galzria are trying to poke holes in the theory that make them come off looking much worse. Whereas someone like Glooble pre-emptively unvoted and has had the good sense to stay there.

Okay, I'm going to bed. Real-life Dominion tournament in the morning. Tables, Axxle, Dsell, SFS... would love your thoughts.

[Galzria]

I love how Robz basically stated "no, I'm not sure" about any of them, and then proceeded to explain why each is likely town.

Furthermore, he scrambles to derail a wagon, and then comes out with "well, if I'm wrong and he flips Mafia everybody go back to what they were doing and forget I ever defended him" - Yes Robz,, that's a paraphrase, but was the gist of you're post.

Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.

[Robz888]

I love how Robz basically stated "no, I'm not sure" about any of them, and then proceeded to explain why each is likely town.

Furthermore, he scrambles to derail a wagon, and then comes out with "well, if I'm wrong and he flips Mafia everybody go back to what they were doing and forget I ever defended him" - Yes Robz,, that's a paraphrase, but was the gist of you're post.

Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.

Yes, because I think they are likely town, for obvious reasons. I'm not positive, but I've drawn those conclusions. That's the game.

If I'm wrong, and Grujah is mafia, here is what happens, obviously--I become a main lynch target next day. That was a given. I'm town, so I don't want to encourage thinking that way, but yes I'm prepared for that.

[O]

Okay, yes. We are getting sidetracked. Because you sidetracked us, saying more things that weren't accurate. My bad.

Wow? I blamed myself. No need to be pissy and rude about it.

Now for my crackpot theory, that looks for mafia groups. This is actually the only way to really find mafia, is to start saying, "Well, if he is mafia, then not he..." etc.

Lol no, it's not. It is a bit in IRL mafia but certainly not here. We didn't look for trios at lylo in MIII, we looked for whoever was singularly most scummy, volt. And we were right.


Too bad we have, like, way way way way too much has happened today to actualyl look at patterns like that. So I took the easiest pattern I could--lynch votes on day 1--and compared them to a possible lynch of Grujah. If you think I've misidentified you, fine. Do you honestly not see any merit in my theory?

Look, I know you all want to trust your "reads" which I think are whatever and usually wrong and were certainly wrong yesterday (not yours specifically, O--see how I manage to get your voting history correct? it's not that hard).

More smartassery. I was enjoying our debate and keeping it mostly civil (at least more civil than you are). Why do you feel the need to add cheeky insults to this?

But, look, somebody is fooling us, and doing it in groups.

It's not clear that A) anyone was fooling us until you came along or B) there is any group fooling us instead of single people

And this is an interesting groups. And on top of that, I think O and Galzria are trying to poke holes in the theory that make them come off looking much worse.

No crap. Except we do this whether we're town or mafia. Survivalisttell is not scumtell. Derp derp derp derp/

Whereas someone like Glooble pre-emptively unvoted and has had the good sense to stay there.

This could also be framed as scummy hedging. Really this is just you framing things to get people to vote your way, whether you're right or not.

[O]

missed this one

Too bad we have, like, way way way way too much has happened today to actualyl look at patterns like that. So I took the easiest pattern I could--lynch votes on day 1--and compared them to a possible lynch of Grujah. If you think I've misidentified you, fine. Do you honestly not see any merit in my theory?

Honestly? I find your theory about as likely as the theory that SFS and Tables are actually fakeclaiming scum. Which no, I don't believe.

[Robz888]

Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.

CONFIDENT? Says the guy who throws around votes and "100% certainties" all the time. To be clear: I am NOT confident or certain or sure of anything.

What I am is highly suspicious that the bandwagon against Grujah came together--quickly and instantly--when other bandwagons failed. And that it includes all (plus O) of the people from the previous day. This is not interesting to you? Come on, Galz. I mean, don't, because I think you're mafia. I'm not sure of it! You could very well not be. No confidence. Just my thoughts.

[Robz888]

O, sorry for being rude. I mean that sincerely.

[O]

8 viewers of thread, 3 mafia players on I believe.

Yea we better we damn entertaining.

Robz, its ok <3. Just needed to check you there.

[Robz888]

8 viewers of thread, 3 mafia players on I believe.

Yea we better we damn entertaining.

Robz, its ok <3. Just needed to check you there.

  You know Tables, SFS, and Dsell are chilling at their mafia HQ, watching us destroy everything...

[Robz888]

Ugh, I did an emoticon. Now you should lynch me for sure.

[Galzria]

Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.

CONFIDENT? Says the guy who throws around votes and "100% certainties" all the time. To be clear: I am NOT confident or certain or sure of anything.

What I am is highly suspicious that the bandwagon against Grujah came together--quickly and instantly--when other bandwagons failed. And that it includes all (plus O) of the people from the previous day. This is not interesting to you? Come on, Galz. I mean, don't, because I think you're mafia. I'm not sure of it! You could very well not be. No confidence. Just my thoughts.

Please point me to a post in this thread where I listed percentages. No?

Let's try M-III. Oh, found one did you? Was out the one on Jo (where I was right), or the one on you (where I was right)? Maybe the one I listed Volt as highly likely? Wait, I was right there too?

You know, for someone who is SO sure his reads are better than everybodies in the game, can you point to one Mafia lynch vote you've been on since the final Axxle lynch in M-I?

I'm hardly perfect with my reads, but I don't have the arrogance to tell everybody how much better my reads are than theirs.

[O]

I mean, we all know the only people with superior reads here and myself and popsofctown. That's just given.

[Robz888]

Honestly, while I had a very specific post of Robz's that read absolutely town, almost everything he's said these past two IRL days have been really controlling and unreasonably CONFIDENT. In a way that makes him sounds like M-II Robz.

CONFIDENT? Says the guy who throws around votes and "100% certainties" all the time. To be clear: I am NOT confident or certain or sure of anything.

What I am is highly suspicious that the bandwagon against Grujah came together--quickly and instantly--when other bandwagons failed. And that it includes all (plus O) of the people from the previous day. This is not interesting to you? Come on, Galz. I mean, don't, because I think you're mafia. I'm not sure of it! You could very well not be. No confidence. Just my thoughts.

Please point me to a post in this thread where I listed percentages. No?

Let's try M-III. Oh, found one did you? Was out the one on Jo (where I was right), or the one on you (where I was right)? Maybe the one I listed Volt as highly likely? Wait, I was right there too?

You know, for someone who is SO sure his reads are better than everybodies in the game, can you point to one Mafia lynch vote you've been on since the final Axxle lynch in M-I?

I'm hardly perfect with my reads, but I don't have the arrogance to tell everybody how much better my reads are than theirs.

Galz, I was responding to O, who said I had "terrible" town reads:

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

It's hard for me to point to correct lynches that I have been on the correct side of, when I spent all of MII as mafia, and all of MIII dead after the first round. In my only living round during MIII, my vote was for a mafia. In MI, yeah I made some mistakes.

[Galzria]

I mean, we all know the only people with superior reads here and myself and popsofctown. That's just given.

Like I said, I can point to a single post where he tells pro-town this game. I just don't like how he's swooped in with a "stop right there! I'm better than you all and you're wrong!" Attitude.

I also find anybody that can "clear" 8 of 12 people (with at least 3 Mafia) to be seriously misguided about his game, and thus he losses any credibility he might've had.

He thinks that 6 of 12 voting together quickly sends up red flags, but finding the entire Mafia team (down to + or - 1 player) doesn't bother him.

[O]

One thing I wanted to mention is that if one or the other of Jo and Axxle is mafia, or neither is mafia... well, there is a good chance some of the mafia are sitting out the voting right now, waiting to see which bandwagon gets closest to hammer. Or maybe they aren't even going to vote, because why would they? They might not need to.

Right now, the people who haven't voted for anybody are Tables, Grujah, and Glooble. Insomniac, O, and Theorel have all voted for someone other than Jo and Axxle.

Insomniac and O have votes on Pops, which is something I understand, so I'm going to discount them here a bit. That leaves Tables, Glooble, Grujah, and Theorel. Other than Tables, I have gotten some funny vibes from all of these people. When we go hunting for 2nd and 3rd mafia (or possibly 1st mafia), this is a group I will be keeping my eye on.

Just food for thought. I'm starting to get anxious for this round to end. I don't plan to switch my vote, though.

SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables, and Grujah searched the deceased Lord's Throne Room, hoping for the key, or clues, or both.

When that didn't work, they did it again. 

Vote Count 1-13

popsofctown (2) - Insomniac, O
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Dsell (1) - theorel
Axxle (5) - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown

Not Voting {3} - Tables, Grujah, Glooble

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

Just found this post... interesting for reference.

[Galzria]

Robz, you quoted me, so you'll understand when I thought you were responding to me.

Look, go back... 2 pages? now, and I made it pretty clear I don't trust this wagon. It got rolling too quickly (although that same argument was made for Jo's D1 wagon, remember?). I wasn't going to vote until Axxle came, lurked, and didn't respond. If they're partners that was a very scumread tell. No being forced to bus or defend.

So I voted to force the issue. Am I wary? Yeah, sure. But in this game you're always one of 3 things until killed and flip town:

You're Mafia busing
You're Mafia bandwagoning
You're Mafia defending

The last is the LEAST likely path for Mafia to take. You know this. The second is viable, and you present your theory around it. The first is harder to catch.

But let's look at your theory. You have "cleared" for all intents everyone but 4 people. 3 of which were on both Bandwagons, and O. Do you really, truly believe the 3 Mafia would all play together like that? It's WIFOM, but it's really not because the whole Mafia team would be OMGUS. So that means it's much more likely that AT LEAST one of your "town" reads is wrong.

I mean, I just can't see YOU of all people buying your own theory here. It's just beyond ridiculous.

[jotheonah]

It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-21A

jotheonah (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Tables
O (1): Grujah
Grujah (5): Captain_Frisk, popsofctown, jotheonah, Galzria, O

Not voting {3}: Axxle, Glooble, Robz888

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[O]

It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.

1) Are you mafia?

If no: 2) Do you believe O, Galzria and CF are all mafia?

If so: The theory is wrong.

[Galzria]

It doesn't seem that ridiculous to me, actually.

 

Well, in that case.

Ahem.

Pick me! I'm scum!

[O]

>MFW the two confirmed townies (or near equivalent) are still on Jo.

Hm....

[jotheonah]

Take a step back from this O-Robz-Galz fight and tell me it looks like 3 townies squabbling.

It doesn't look that way to me. The longer the argument goes on, the worse O and Galzria look.

[jotheonah]

It was Robz who looked bad at first.

[O]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

[jotheonah]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

So much wrong with this. I'm not focusing attention on you, Robz is and, more importantly, you are. Second, the Grujah wagon is far from defused and I'M STILL ON IT.

And on top of all that I'm supposed to believe that the strong town read you've had on me all game, despite all the crazy, instantly evaporates when I put the tiniest bit of suspicion on you? OMGUS much?

[Galzria]

It was Robz who looked bad at first.

Jo, I don't KNOW that O is town, but I do lean that way. I think that Robz is MORE LIKELY than even O to be town. I'm not arguing who is or isn't Mafia here, I'm arguing that Robz is using faulty logic, and O sees that as well.

Honestly, your saying "Robz's case looks good to me" is basically the same as saying "I'm Mafia", since his case doesn't exactly leave wiggle room for you NOT to be. Do you not understand that?

[O]

Jotheonah:

Target of a wagon with 2 confirmed townies on it
I screwup up, Jo warms to an O wagon
People are finished discussing my screwup for now, Grujah Wagon develops
Jo votes Grujah
Robz defuses Grujah wagon for now, FOSING me and Galz
Jo now focuses attention on me + Galz

I'm beginning to think I misread Jo earlier. Survtell is not scumtell, Survtell by throwing FOS and votes at anyone whose the focus of attention besides himself..

So much wrong with this. I'm not focusing attention on you, Robz is and, more importantly, you are. Second, the Grujah wagon is far from defused and I'M STILL ON IT.

And on top of all that I'm supposed to believe that the strong town read you've had on me all game, despite all the crazy, instantly evaporates when I put the tiniest bit of suspicion on you? OMGUS much?

Not OMGUS. Tables was OMGUS. Notice that I don't OMGUS Robz.

Notice that I didn't vote for you, the townread has not "evaporated", I said "I'm beginning to think I misread".

Also, if you agree with Robz, why not vote for me or Galzria? It doesn't make much sense.

[jotheonah]

His case has you and O and a third member of the team, who could be CF.  I don't really have to believe I'm scum to buy into it.

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

I know I'm the one who said survivalism isn't a scum tell. But acting like you have five votes on you when you have one FoS? That's the only scum tell I really trust. That's how i got busted in MIII. You guys got WAY TOO MAD and WAY TOO DISMISSIVE of a post by Robz that, while over-authoritarian and oddly timed, is not that ridiculous. His assertion that this wagon built too quickly? We all agree that's legitimate. His analysis of the Axxle wagon and this wagon? Seems like an apt thing to do at this juncture.  I wasn't buying the conclusions drawn from that at first, but I'm not used to this level of defensiveness from either of you, particularly Galzria. So yeah, I'm suspicious and getting suspiciouser.

[O]

...but really, it is that ridiculous, and countering a post is certainly not "overreacting" especially when it gets people (read:glooble) to change their votes.

[jotheonah]

@O As far as I'm concerned, Robz has spun a great theory - if Grujah flips town.  If Grujah flips scum it all kind of falls apart though.  So what I'd really like to do is table all this nonsense for tomorrow and get on with the lynch that a good portion of the town seemed willing to get behind.

Grujah's flip will paint tonight's events in a much clearer light, and it won't hurt the town too much.

[jotheonah]

Anyway, I honestly can't believe we're all still awake. I'll see you guys tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

One more thought before bed: The big lesson from MII for me was that you should always be ready to turn on your best friends, your strongest town reads.  In that game I let one person into my mental confTown category and he turned out to be Mafia.

So do I admit the possibility that O and Galz, who have read town to me most of the game, could be mob partners? Absolutely, in a heartbeat. Am I going to vote for them two days before deadline when we're not even at LyLo? Not on your life.

[Galzria]

His case has you and O and a third member of the team, who could be CF.  I don't really have to believe I'm scum to buy into it.

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

I know I'm the one who said survivalism isn't a scum tell. But acting like you have five votes on you when you have one FoS? That's the only scum tell I really trust. That's how i got busted in MIII. You guys got WAY TOO MAD and WAY TOO DISMISSIVE of a post by Robz that, while over-authoritarian and oddly timed, is not that ridiculous. His assertion that this wagon built too quickly? We all agree that's legitimate. His analysis of the Axxle wagon and this wagon? Seems like an apt thing to do at this juncture.  I wasn't buying the conclusions drawn from that at first, but I'm not used to this level of defensiveness from either of you, particularly Galzria. So yeah, I'm suspicious and getting suspiciouser.

Sigh. You've seen me when Mafia Jo. Think. You've seen Robz as Mafia. If you're honestly not sure how you feel, tell me, who most resembles M-II?

Meta gaming aside, which I don't like, are either O, or myself, likely to be the type to crack under a FoS? Seriously, my name has been run around the block (with votes even!) At multiple stages D2 here, and my reaction want this visceral. It's not the accusation, it's the logic .

Honestly, if you can't recognize that pointing a whole Hand of Suspicion at 4 people, and saying "all 3 scum are there" is OMGUS play, then I just don't know what to say. Understand, when I say it is OMGUS play, I mean it VERY seriously. Any 3 (or 4) member Mafia team that would all vote together D1, and D2 is just... Beyond terrible. Like, "should never play Mafia again" terrible.

[Galzria]

My reaction was never this visceral* fix't.

[Grujah]

Whoah. I check in tonight with 1 vote and get up this morning at L-2. I won't claim anything yet, still not at -1 (though, If I count Glooble who Unvoted, I kinda am?).

Ok. I Know that I was suspicious to many back from D1, and that we are in pressure with time (to which I also contributed) but that was still an extremely fast forming wagon. I refuse to believe that it was 6 townies who suddenly all went - "Oh, I distrust Grujah 'nff to immediately switch to him" THAT FAST. I understand Frisk's "inactive townie is bad cause its harder to get a right lynch", but this is not about that.


Robz halting my lynch. Damn, to me it should scream town, but I cannot afford to take that for granted. He could have done "His gonna die anyway now, let just score points by protecting him". But I lean quite much more town now. If he is town, I am not sure how much Mafia could do to attack Rob on this decision or argue against him here, given that when I flip town it won't look good. Thing is I always get into WIFOM loops whenver i try to derive stuff from this.


Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Joth just plays aweful. I seriously can't believe half of his posts. Even his twin-buddy called him out just now. If anyone should get policy lynch, it's him, not me. He also done this stupidest hedge ever where after voting for me he said "give him a chance to explain himself". DSUFGSDFGHSU

one more thing. Pops. He seemed to be eager jumping on wagons early.
He followed my vote on O (Ok, with his own, different reason, but, might be just taking an opportunity. Also, SFS can be nitpicky, O can't?). He followed votes on me. Not much, but suspicious.

O's vote had a bit OMGUS feel, but not taking that against him.


Also, you guys seem to take too much from the twinclaim (pops esp). Did you guys even check that claim with some kind of a "you both answer a question at the same time" thing? (Ala Jaime and Brienne in S02E10).
I mean, I really doubt anyone would fake THAT, but, just to be sure?

[Captain_Frisk]

Holy crap.

I went to bed thinking we might have 1-2 more votes, but we nearly lynched him?

unvote

I don't like any wagon that nearly lynched with prime townreads off doing whatever.

I'm going out for the morning and I don't want to mislynch while I'm sitting and drinking coffee.

I will return and re vote for someone, possibly grujah around 11 am eastern

[Glooble]

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:

<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->

I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.

I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.

I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.

[jotheonah]

Can people stop auto-equating my raising the possibility of someone being scum with my being willing to lynch them? It's really unfair. A good town should be willing to look at everyone, that's all I'm saying.

Whoah. I check in tonight with 1 vote and get up this morning at L-2. I won't claim anything yet, still not at -1 (though, If I count Glooble who Unvoted, I kinda am?).

Soft role claim? Check

Ok. I Know that I was suspicious to many back from D1, and that we are in pressure with time (to which I also contributed) but that was still an extremely fast forming wagon. I refuse to believe that it was 6 townies who suddenly all went - "Oh, I distrust Grujah 'nff to immediately switch to him" THAT FAST. I understand Frisk's "inactive townie is bad cause its harder to get a right lynch", but this is not about that.

Thanks for telling us what it isn't about, despite the fact that almost everyone of us pointed to this as a reason for your lynch.

Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Totally unsurprising vote for an already popular candidate? Check.

Joth just plays aweful. I seriously can't believe half of his posts. Even his twin-buddy called him out just now. If anyone should get policy lynch, it's him, not me. He also done this stupidest hedge ever where after voting for me he said "give him a chance to explain himself". DSUFGSDFGHSU

one more thing. Pops. He seemed to be eager jumping on wagons early.
He followed my vote on O (Ok, with his own, different reason, but, might be just taking an opportunity. Also, SFS can be nitpicky, O can't?). He followed votes on me. Not much, but suspicious.

O's vote had a bit OMGUS feel, but not taking that against him.

Hand of Suspicion on almost everyone else? Check. Also the part about me is just rude. You're not online much, dude. I thought it would be nice to give you a chance to respond rather than lynching you with no warning. Excuse me.

Anyone see anything in that post that makes you want to lynch him less? Cause boy I don't.

Holy crap.

I went to bed thinking we might have 1-2 more votes, but we nearly lynched him?

unvote

I don't like any wagon that nearly lynched with prime townreads off doing whatever.

I'm going out for the morning and I don't want to mislynch while I'm sitting and drinking coffee.

I will return and re vote for someone, possibly grujah around 11 am eastern

Holy Probable Outcome, Batman! We almost killed the person I voted to kill! The horror!

Maybe I am overly sarcastic this morning, but this town is driving me up the wall. Let's lynch Grujah and get it over with. We can play the "which mafia are on that wagon?" game tomorrow.

I regret getting my hands dirty in the Galz-O debacle only because it's another freaking distraction for the most distractable town in the history of mafia and it's not a conversation that needs to be happening before we've seen a flip.

[Grujah]

Thanks for telling us what it isn't about, despite the fact that almost everyone of us pointed to this as a reason for your lynch.

Including or excluding you?

[jotheonah]

I didn't feel the need to say the exact same thing everyone was saying when I laid down my vote, but for the record my vote for you is based on ballpark 65% you're mafia 35% your a lurky, not-very-helpful town. Now that we've had this fascinating Robz-exchange, your lynch will also be quite informational.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm up to date (to 2069).  Robz analysis of the overlap of the two voting sets is interesting, but I'm in overwhelm, and have limited time for analysis (with my father as a belated Father's Day present until Wednesday am).  Given that I find myself being easily manipulated by the various arguments, I need to keep my vote where it is until I have a strong reason to move it (i.e. someone has convinced me that player  is mafia).

[Grujah]

Now that we've had this fascinating Robz-exchange, your lynch will also be quite informational.

This I agree with.

[Glooble]

Ok, Glooble. I am not surprised by the vote nor do I derive anything from it alone (he did vote for me D1 too, so he doesn't trust me much, but so did theo). No one else sick of this "I'm now almost sure that some of Mafia has low post count"?.
So, he goes to score points by being considarate and Unvoting (this also after Frisk calling him out for joining in first). Then does almost bureaucratic post:
 "Robz, your analysis succeeded in freaking me out enough (Why? How? Esp. when you and your twinbuddy are Robz top suspects if I understood correctly) to keep me from revoting Grujah at the present time. However, I'm starting to find it unlikely we'll reach a consensus on anyone else in the next two days."
So he still get some heat of by unvoting, but that still means nothing as he is determined that I am only possible lynch so he'll do that eventually. Perfect way to distance himself from a townie lynch but still support it.
Unvote Vote: Glooble

Ok, first off, given how generally inactive this town has been, and the failure of bandwagons to really take off, an inactive mafia makes a lot of sense. Many of the candidates we can't reach a consensus on it's because they are "too obvious to be scum" or "a mislynch waiting to happen." Well, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. It's just possible someone could be acting a lot like scum because they are scum, and a bandwagon full of townies could develop on someone because they are an easy target. This was my thought process when I voted for you and it still seems like a strong possibility.

I unvoted when Robz pointed out the similarities to the Axxle1 wagon for the reasons I stated. I was freaked out. I was manipulated by someone on that wagon day 1, it made sense to me to back a different horse today if at all possible.

I do think the mafia wants a lynch today. With a strong possibility of a Vig or SK taking one of them out tonight, I doubt they will want to risk not killing a townie during the day at all. The question is, do they want a lynch enough to all put suspicion on themselves by being on this scummy bandwagon?

[Tables]

@Tables:  Can you explain the dichotomy between your assertions in posts #1923 and 1927 (sorry for the lack of quotes, I'm on an unfamiliar laptop with no ******* mouse but the built-in and I'm really having trouble getting everything to work easily).  In one of those two posts, you say (paraphrasing) "I don't think I'm lurking, I post 1 to 3 times a day almost every day".  In the other, you say (paraphrasing) "I dont post that often cause I'm not online often".  I don't see how both can be true, yet these assertions are only 4 posts apart.

The obvious reason (and what I meant at the time) was that when I'm online, I can easily post multiple times in a single session. In retrospect, I also realise I'm online more now, which is a change from before (but I'm still reliant on using my housemates laptop) when before I was getting on only once or twice per day.

Also, I'd say posting 1-3 times a day isn't posting that often. But it's certainly not lurking.

And finally I realised in bed last night my votes in that last post were confusing. My intent was to vote O to get attention to the fact he was being so scummy, then leave my vote on Joth at the end of the post. But I forgot to change the vote back to Joth (reread the last paragraph, it's clear that was my intent). The last post was supposed to add that to the end, but I realise it looked like I was trying to instead unvote and vote onto Joth, which doesn't make sense as my vote was already on him.

[Tables]

Okay, now read up to my last post. I hadn't even fully comprehended the bandwagon at the time of the last post.

I agree with Robz, but think he's exaggerated his numbers somewhat. I think there's almost certainly a mafia among the twice bandwagoners, but am not sure who it is. The whole debate with O has made O look even more terrible than he already was. Unfortunately I now don't have time for a full analysis, but my spreadsheet comments are: "Total failure of a defence w/ strawmanning (1942). Vote: Glooble (1955). Vote: Grujah (1974). Poor reasoning for defending vote (1989). More strawmanning a good argument (2005-6)"

In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.

It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.

Vote: O

I've read tons of Tables posts today that looked like they seem scummy as mess, but since he is actually an outlier in the extra information I have on him as a townie, I always remembered not to bother with it.

I don't like this, because it's an accusation with no substance. I don't mind people finding me suspicious, if I can defend myself, but you've mentioned nothing here. I guess it's not really important, since I'm not in the firing line today, but, eh.

[O]

In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.

I'm not quite sure when my play isn't erratic; panicy is some nice flavor text you added. I do not think any theory involving me as mafia is "crackpot" (though of course I know them false), just this 3-out-of-4 Bombshell by Robz. Mostly because if we followed it I believe the town has a chance of losing pretty quickly: Lynch grujah, and if he's town: Lynch Galz/O as per Robz theory, I'm town/Galz probably is town, and then because of people like Tables/SFS lynch the other "partner", and oh look, he's town and we're at 3 misslynches because of one theory.


"At what should have been a single small mistake involving my loyalty"

If it was a single small mistake, why did you immediately vote for me?

It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.
Vote: O

Honestly, I can smell the troll-bait. At the VERY least I provided a link to Talihandur's tells, which is more than you've done.
I feel the need in most games to respond to every vote against me, but since this one is so clearly personal instead of scumhunting I'm pretty sure I can just ignore it after this post.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right... that's alot of crazy $stuff for a Friday night.

RobZ's analysis of similarity between Grujah and Axxle1 band wagons is spot on - in that it is damn near the same wagon that mislynched on day 1.

Options are:

1. We're all town and were terrible at this game day 1.
2. There is mafia on this wagon and we're about to mislynch
3. There is mafia on this wagon bussing Grujah - and hoping we'll back out because the wagon looks too similar.

I had no idea when I started this wagon that it would end up looking the same - hence the unvote.  I've now gone back and read every post since my vote (#1966) twice.  Now I would consider my argument on lynching to be medium quality at best.  The gist of it is: he lurks, and all things being equal, he is a better mislynch than others.  This is a far weaker argument than everything against J, and Galz's argument against Pops.

Here are the things that stood out:

#1967 - Glooble gets on the bandwagon super early - sheeping my "read"  This is Glooble playing exactly the same way that has gotten him called scum in the past.

#1972,#1973,#1974 - BAM BAM BAM
Pops, Jonah, O all jump on the wagon within 7(!!!!) minutes.  Pops uses my argument.  J uses no argument as usual.  O provides no information - as per the O playbook.

#1977 - Galz points out that this is freaking crazy.  This post is the definition of hedging / fence sitting, which I don't have as much issue with as others (hell, my unvote is also hedging).  J points out as much in #1978 - hedging while placing the blame for this hedge on G.  O sheeps this hedge in #1979.  Pops sheeps the hedge in #1981.  We all feel terrible for this mislynch about to happen  Since we have so many people sitting on the fence - it can't be a scumtell.

#1980 - Galz joins the wagon - ostensibly for pressure purposes.

#1982/3 - RobZ shows up with 2 stone tablets and commands us to stop.  I especially enjoyed this:

I'd bet 3 or 4 of you are getting seriously outplayed by the 2 or 3 of you who are mafia.

Since I am not mafia, and I started the wagon, I'm wondering how I've been outplayed - but I can totally see his perspective.

#1985 - Glooble backs off

#1987 - RobZ points out that this bandwagon does not have a good track record.

O and RobZ have a little fight about how many mafia is on the wagon.  For the record - the starting point of my analysis was "at least 1 mafia on the Axxle1 wagon"

#1997 - Axxle2 - Real life drinking excuse for not voting.  Same scummy contentless post count inflating crap that got Axxle1 lynched (falsely - for those who might not remember what happened 40 pages ago)

#1999 - Jonah re-pushed the wagon with a SK theory. 

I'm standing by this lynch and waiting for the flip.

#2000 (WOOHOOOOOOO) - RobZ calls for an analysis of how scummy Galz, Frisk, Jonah, and Glooble are.

#2002 - Jonah points a semi FOS @ Robz.

#2003 - 90 seconds later: hedge on RobZ -> semi FOS @ CF.

#2005 - O starts up some distraction with a crazytrain vote on me.

#2007 - RobZ hints that he's ok with no-lynch

#2010 - Jonah FoS @ O.

#2013 - Galz (probably overly strongly) points out that RobZ has semi 8 / 12 people.  He overexaggerates a few points in my mind (RobZ, Axxle2) - and a slight exxagerations on others (DSell, Pops)

#2014 - Jonah wants to kill kill kill.  Doesn't realize that he's already been put on the group W bench.

#2020 - RobZ calls Galz out on #2013. 

However:

Dsell - No opinion one way or the other. But when I have 5 or so strong suspects, yes, he's safely acquitted.

There are 12 of us alive.  RobZ in this post points out that he has townreads on 7 of them.  Presumably he has a town read on himself (#8).  That leaves 4 people.  Who are these 5 strong suspects?

#2024 - O rejoins wagon.

- dick slamming contest between O / Robz ...

#2033 - Galz calls out RobZ on #2020

#2053 - Jonah FoS's O and Galz.

#2054 - Jonah reminds us that he was suspicious of RobZ.

#2066 - Grujah wakes up to find himself with a noose around his neck standing under a treebranch.

#2069 - Jonah wants to kill kill kill - dissects Grujah's not me post.  Jonah should know as well as anyone that it doesn't matter what you say when you're about to be lynched, it will be flipped right back in your face.

#2072 - SFS declines to join the wagon.  With SFS and tables not on the wagon - if you believe they are both town, the odds of a mafia lynch are very low.

Vote: Jotheonah - he keeps pushing for the kill - while throwing the FOS at everyone in the universe.

I don't like RobZ after this exchange either, but the only meaningful thing that Jonah did was tear apart Grujah's defense post.  Since I am inclined to think that lynching mafia is unlikely without the assistance of Tables / SFS, I read this as trying to incite town into a mislynch (which was oh - so - close) while simultaneously muddying the waters all over the place with fingers of suspicion.

[O]

- dick slamming contest between O / Robz ...

I laughed out loud at this (in agreement).

[jotheonah]

Sorry, Cf, did you LIKE Grujah's post? Did it in some way tell you he wasn't mafia?

[jotheonah]

Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.

[O]

Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.

Yes, mafia Jo would.

Unvote I do not plan on rejoining a Grujah wagon as both Tables and SFS are not onboard, CF's arguments, and the fact that Robz has muddied the meaning of his flip so terribly (before we actually flipped him, notably)

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.

You did exactly the same things you accuse him of:

Suspicion everywhere, voting for other popular candidate. 

I don't like grujahs post - I discount it entirely.  What I don't like is a lynching wagon that doesn't include our most likely townies, and is the same damn wagon that mislynched day 1 - as robz points out.

[jotheonah]

False. A mafia pushes one wagon. A mafia would like to have at least one friend in town. I viciously attack my best defenders along with everyone else.

I'm just a townie with no satisfactory reads. And I'm very frustrated by this town's inability to stick with a plan.

Like I get "This wagon built too fast it must be scummy."  But in this case there's a perfectly reasonable explanation for the fast build = we're close to deadline, Grujah is unhelpful, informational lynch, good chance mafia. He was clearly the best chance of getting a lynch today. A lynch today, in general, is pro-town.  So all this stalling feels like "This wagon actually worked so it must be scummy." Which is an attitude that leads to no lynching. Which is bad for the town.

[popsofctown]

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.

Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.

In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.

In MII I was mafia.

You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.

2/3 is fantabulous brah.

[jotheonah]

Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.

You did exactly the same things you accuse him of:

Suspicion everywhere, voting for other popular candidate. 

As Pops says, hypocrisy is not a scum tell. Also, when I did it I didn't have a bandwagon on my back. When I did have a bandwagon on my back, I voted for myself.

[O]

This is town robz. Town Robz has terrible reads and sticks to them, from what I remember.

Or he could be SK Robz. But probably town robz, and that's what makes me sad.

Don't know about terrible reads. Town Robz cleaned up MIII. I can quote from the MIII thread, but I did call Eevee and Volt on Day 1, before I died. If you'll remember, I was the one who first FOS Eevee. You voted that way, too, so you should remember.

In MI I didn't do too well, no. Though I did maintain theory was not mafia on Day 1, and I was right about that. I was wrong about tinas throughout.

In MII I was mafia.

You called out a trio and got 2/3. I'm pretty sure you also ended up voting on the D1 wagon but I need to check that again. I'm writing it down to a lucky guess during RVS as you didn't seriously pursue anyone you called in in your FOS's anyways.

2/3 is fantabulous brah.

Pops is too goddamn pro at this game. Same tone regardless of whats happening.

No, I'm not saying he's scum for this. There's no hidden meaning: Just that Pops is pro.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, come on. Would a mafia be this obvious about FoSing everyone? That's a towntell, yo.

You did exactly the same things you accuse him of:

Suspicion everywhere, voting for other popular candidate. 

As Pops says, hypocrisy is not a scum tell. Also, when I did it I didn't have a bandwagon on my back. When I did have a bandwagon on my back, I voted for myself.

I was referring to day 1 wrt voting for other folks.  Today you did something worse - or mafia gambit.  I will not vote to lynch with you on the wagon, as that denies town information, but there is no circumstance in which self vote is protown.

As for hypocrisy - all I'm saying is that if grujah is scum for what you accuse him of, then so are you.  I don't think that it's a valid tell at all - other than you trying to force the issue.

Also, with the wagon being similar to day 1 wagon - what do we gain info wise from a grujah town flip?  Aren't we in the same boat with one less candidate?

[popsofctown]

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

Joth does good work in fits and starts.

[Captain_Frisk]

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

Joth does good work in fits and starts.

In this post that you quote, j never answers the question - which is - if you believe robz's theory - which does not include grujah as potential suspect - then why is he still voting for grujah?  and it's not like he's just not unvoting.  He continues to actively push for a kill.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-21B

jotheonah (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk
Grujah (3): popsofctown, jotheonah, Galzria
Glooble (1): Grujah
O (1): Tables

Not voting {4}: Axxle, Glooble, Robz888, O

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[popsofctown]

I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.

+10 derp points.

[O]

PST or GTFO Pops 

[jotheonah]

And to tell you the truth, it isn't Robz's case that's starting to convince me, it's the amazing sensitivity and overreaction you two have displayed since he started spinning it.

Joth does good work in fits and starts.

In this post that you quote, j never answers the question - which is - if you believe robz's theory - which does not include grujah as potential suspect - then why is he still voting for grujah?  and it's not like he's just not unvoting.  He continues to actively push for a kill.

Read more carefully. Finding the quote that answers your question.

@O As far as I'm concerned, Robz has spun a great theory - if Grujah flips town.  If Grujah flips scum it all kind of falls apart though.  So what I'd really like to do is table all this nonsense for tomorrow and get on with the lynch that a good portion of the town seemed willing to get behind.

Grujah's flip will paint tonight's events in a much clearer light, and it won't hurt the town too much.

[Axxle]

Vote: Galzria

His recent argument with with Robz smacks of the same crap that he argued in his earlier alleged "stir the pot" post when Robz made comments about Joth. 

I'm also looking heavily at O since his arguments against Robz's reads seemed more ad hominem than anything else.

For the record: I doubt there are more than 2 mafia on the Grujah wagon, Grujah is scummy enough and people are panicking so it probably won't take much prodding to get the same worried town to vote last minute.

[popsofctown]

O and Galz is probably either or.  They are both very, very scummy.  Lynching grujah and drawing conclusions about the two of them is one thing, but the other way around is better - pick out one of them as scum so we can conclude grujah is town.

Gonna look back and see who has jumped on in a way that strengthens that concitional

[popsofctown]

Probably O.  "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1. 

I'd like time to read Galzria anyway, and O seems to like to be inscrutable.

[popsofctown]

To be clear - if O is scum, Grujah is town, Galzria does not have an equally strong relationship there, so O is a preferable lynch.  Galzria is about as likely to be scum, maybe a bit more.

[Galzria]

Look, the two scummiest people itt trying to move wagons to town.

[O]

Probably O.  "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1. 

But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.

I really don't think me or Galz is scum.

And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?

[O]

inb4omgfreudianslipomgscum. I KNOW I'm not scum, I highly suspect Galz is town. Kthx.

[Galzria]

Probably O.  "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1. 

But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.

I really don't think me or Galz is scum.

And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?

I joined your Pops wagon D1...

I should've stayed on it instead of going with Axxle. We would be down 1 scum in this town.

[popsofctown]

Probably O.  "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1. 

But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.

I really don't think me or Galz is scum.

And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?

I joined your Pops wagon D1...

I should've stayed on it instead of going with Axxle. We would be down 1 scum in this town.

You, after my flip.

[Galzria]

Probably O.  "I have to wagon at one point" was soooo not his attitude day 1. 

But then I got flackx1000 for "not being willing to join on either of the major wagons", and nobody was willing to join my popswagon.

I really don't think me or Galz is scum.

And what happens when we lynch me or Galz and either of us flips town?

I joined your Pops wagon D1...

I should've stayed on it instead of going with Axxle. We would be down 1 scum in this town.

You, after my flip.

Wow, that's the best defense I've ever seen! Pops is TOTALLY pro.

[popsofctown]

cool your jets before i start to blush

[Galzria]

Vote: Popsoftown

[jotheonah]

Well two days before deadline is definitely the best time to be starting a bunch of new wagons. I'm so glad superrobz cut in when he did. We were getting dangerously close to actually accomplishing something.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well two days before deadline is definitely the best time to be starting a bunch of new wagons. I'm so glad superrobz cut in when he did. We were getting dangerously close to actually accomplishing something.

Do you really think that Grujah is mafia? 

[jotheonah]

There's two possible mafia subsets in my mind. One of them (the lurker mafia theory) almost certainly includes Grujah.

So yes, I believe he could be mafia.

[popsofctown]

Ok.  This is going to be some refereeing, but it's necessary:

It is bad to nolynch in mafia.  I probably won't be able to convince Robz of this, but it's mathematically superior to lynch at random rather than not lynch at all, and it logically follows from the game's premises that lynching is superior to nolynching unless and absurdly larger amount of information is going to arrive on future days, and that doesn't happen in well designed mafia games.  It does happen in Dethy, but I'm going to assume this is a game with less than eleventeen investigative roles.

Everyone needs to make a list of people that they are willing to lynch today.  Technically, that list should include everyone but Tables, but for most people there's several players that are such undesirable lynches to you that you would use the risk of no-lynch to your advantage to get a lynch you prefer (google "the ultimatum game" and figure out the relevance, perhaps).  That's dangerous territory.
If we have a last day deadline scramble, instead of risking no-lynch we can just synthesize the lists and find a consensus lynch.

I would lynch Galzria, O, Grujah, and Axxle2 if I had to in a Darkest hour

[popsofctown]

JOTH IS ROCKIN THA PRISMZ

[jotheonah]

Ok, I looked that one up on MafiaScum and couldn't find it. Prisms?

[O]

I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios. 

[popsofctown]

it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.

[O]

Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria

[jotheonah]

I used "subsets" specifically. I don't have groups. I have some different possible scenarios and they each include a spattering of possible candidates. I guess the short answer to Frisk's question was "Yes." I wouldn't vote for someone I knew to be town, with one exception.

Lynches I'm OK with today: Axxle, Grujah, pops, (Galz, O)
I'm tempted to include myself on that list, but I'll limit it to folks who might actually be scum.

Parentheses for would rather not but could do in a pinch.

[Glooble]

following the same format:

O, Grujah, pops (Galz, Axxle2)

[Axxle]

Galz, O, Grujah, (Joth, Glooble, pops)

[Galzria]

I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.

 

it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.

 

pairings without flips are dumb.

[jotheonah]

I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.

 

it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.

 

pairings without flips are dumb.

I think "part of my iso" was in response to my question about prisms, not to O's question about pairings, which was directed at me.

QUOTE BUTTON IS OUR FRIEND.

[Captain_Frisk]

Before we start providing ranked lists, can we agree on the methodology of choosing our group lynch target?

Otherwise, I'm sure most of our lists will include some subset of Jonah, galz, pops, glooble, and we will be right back here, and I'm not going to agree to vote on a "consensus" lynch if there isn't a predefined way to select the target.

[Galzria]

Anyway, to keep with format since I actually think Pops makes a valid point about not No-Lynching. In order from highest to lowest desire to lynch:

Glad to see gone: Pops, Jotheonah, Axxle
Willing to lynch: Grujah, Glooble, Dsell
Would rather not: Robz, C.F., O
Won't lynch: Tables, SFS, Myself

[Galzria]

I don't know how you all manage to get these sets of scumtells. The only linkages I have are Robz-Grujah and the extremely unlikely Table-SFS, and those are pairs, not trios.

 

it's part of my iso this game, it's not really a thing.

 

pairings without flips are dumb.

I think "part of my iso" was in response to my question about prisms, not to O's question about pairings, which was directed at me.

QUOTE BUTTON IS OUR FRIEND.

Don't buy it. If you want I will produce the countless posts Pops has made where he claims that if he doesn't quote, his response was to the preceding post.

[O]

Ugggghhhhhhhhh

Will be REAL (as in, no internet access) V/LA very very soon for about ~48 hours. I want a lynch, so I'm going to park myself on the most likely consensus vote that I would still like to see a lynch of.

VOTE:Popsofctown unless anyone has any better ideas.

BTW Pops totally stole my meta from... every forum Mafia game. I've always said random lynch>nolynch, and you narbs never believed me.

[Galzria]

Ugggghhhhhhhhh

Will be REAL (as in, no internet access) V/LA very very soon for about ~48 hours. I want a lynch, so I'm going to park myself on the most likely consensus vote that I would still like to see a lynch of.

VOTE:Popsofctown unless anyone has any better ideas.

BTW Pops totally stole my meta from... every forum Mafia game. I've always said random lynch>nolynch, and you narbs never believed me.

I have always argued lynching is better than not. I just have always felt we can do better than random.

[O]

Ugggghhhhhhhhh

Will be REAL (as in, no internet access) V/LA very very soon for about ~48 hours. I want a lynch, so I'm going to park myself on the most likely consensus vote that I would still like to see a lynch of.

VOTE:Popsofctown unless anyone has any better ideas.

BTW Pops totally stole my meta from... every forum Mafia game. I've always said random lynch>nolynch, and you narbs never believed me.

I have always argued lynching is better than not. I just have always felt we can do better than random.

We are doing better than random; we aren't lynching tables 

[Galzria]

Ha! I chuckled.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ha! I chuckled.

That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?

[Galzria]

Ha! I chuckled.

That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?

They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ha! I chuckled.

That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?

They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.

Yes, I quoted you, but really tables was cleared by pops in his request for rankings.  Pops? 

[popsofctown]

Ha! I chuckled.

That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?

They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.

Yes, I quoted you, but really tables was cleared by pops in his request for rankings.  Pops? 

SFS is cleared to me, but I could understand others arguing that he should be on the table.  No need to confuse the issue when the point I was trying to make was a different one.

Oh and I got ninjaed, I was talking to joth. Sorry.  And I just forgot to quote.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ha! I chuckled.

That reminds me... Why is tables clear but not SFS?

They both are on my list. Unless they're both Mafia (highly unlikely, not worth finding out today nor perhaps, like, ever. If they are, they deserve to win). So you would have to ask others.

Yes, I quoted you, but really tables was cleared by pops in his request for rankings.  Pops? 

SFS is cleared to me, but I could understand others arguing that he should be on the table.  No need to confuse the issue when the point I was trying to make was a different one.

Oh and I got ninjaed, I was talking to joth. Sorry.  And I just forgot to quote.

Finally, before I list, what is your methodology for determining our common lynch target?

[Grujah]

Ok, just came home from town, will go to sleep. Before that I guess I can do this lil thing that seems to be a trend:

Would lynch: (O, Glooble, joth)*, Axxle**
Would less:Pops, Dsell***, Galz
He's just there in between, probably wouldn't: CF****
Wouldn't: Robz,  (SFS, Tables)*****

**Axxle his post give me just nothing, nothing to even read on, its that bad. He seemed to be continuing Opal's lurking strategy (he just replaced lurking with posting one-liners). Its very suspicions, maybe he should be even higher in the list.
***Dsell gives me this strange SKish vibe with a) theo going after him and dieing b) he being particulary interested in what people think who-killed-whom. Still, weak reads so far, so his down in the line.
****CF I was had unclear read, slighy scum, in D1. Here he seemed to play very townish. Play reminds me of theo's actually who confirmed town.
***** I am not as much convinced on "SFS = obvtown, Tables = probabably clear" as some other people are, but its still pretty strong. 

*Not really sure how to line em up in proper order.
Jo seems scummy, I hate his annoying play, wouldn't really be sad to see him go even if town but misslynching him give no info. 
O I don't like that behavior I said before, also him badwagoning "just cuz".. less scummy read than other too perhaps, but those two built over time, this is fresher (and with more uncertainty)
Glooble I don't like his "I am not almost sure mafia has low posts". Him hedging too much, him posting Probably 3rd between these 3.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-22

jotheonah (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk
Grujah (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
Glooble (1): Grujah
O (1): Tables
Galzria (1): Axxle
popsofctown (2): Galzria, O

Not voting {2}: Glooble, Robz888

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players

I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.

[Tables]

I'm not quite sure when my play isn't erratic; panicy is some nice flavor text you added. I do not think any theory involving me as mafia is "crackpot" (though of course I know them false), just this 3-out-of-4 Bombshell by Robz. Mostly because if we followed it I believe the town has a chance of losing pretty quickly: Lynch grujah, and if he's town: Lynch Galz/O as per Robz theory, I'm town/Galz probably is town, and then because of people like Tables/SFS lynch the other "partner", and oh look, he's town and we're at 3 misslynches because of one theory.

From what I understood of what Robz said, he doesn't think there are 3/4 mafia on the bandwagon. We don't even know if there are 3 mafia. What Robz said was (I'm paraphrasing here) that there's probably 2 mafia on it. And there's no reason we should, or even would, blindly follow such a strategy all the way through. It makes good odds for a lynch, and after that we have new information; we look back, re-evaluate what we know, see if it still makes sense and move forward.

If it was a single small mistake, why did you immediately vote for me?

Are you completely ignoring the fact I pegged you as one of my strongest suspicions in the immediately preceeding post, and even put a bolded FOS on you?

Honestly, I can smell the troll-bait. At the VERY least I provided a link to Talihandur's tells, which is more than you've done.

Troll bait? And yet you're the one whose just started throwing insults around. This is I believe the second thing you've quoted at me as things you've done, and once again it's a link to information. In fact, just a link to one guy's tells that he uses. IIoA. I have nothing recorded in my notes that's  That doesn't mean you said nothing, just that nothing you've said was interesting or useful enough for me to make a note you said it. Perhaps saying you've contributed nothing was an exaggeration. Perhaps 'almost nothing noteworthy' would be more accurate. The only good thing I have by your name is trying to call Theorel's posts as a pre-lynch cover, and that wasn't even correct (but you knew that at the time, more than likely...).

I feel the need in most games to respond to every vote against me, but since this one is so clearly personal instead of scumhunting I'm pretty sure I can just ignore it after this post.

When did I say a single personal thing? If you didn't want to be accused of contributing virtually nothing and posting IIoA, you shouldn't have contributed virtually nothing and shouldn't have posted IIoA. You're the one who seems to use Ad Hominem's and try to avoid arguing against the facts presented (Except by strawman) when a case is presented.

Anyway this argument now looks pointless as having read beyond this reply, I see you probably won't read this until day 3 (if you're still alive).

For me, my lynch preferences would be, all in order:
O, Joth, (Pops, Grujah)

I'd be less willing, but not overly upset with a lynch of:
Glooble, Axxle2, DSell, Frisk

O I think should be obvious, from this post. Joth's play I've found continually scummy, for reasons given at various times. Pops I've also laid out a case against, but his discussion with Galz has made me less suspicious. Grujah I think we could get a lot of information from, by looking at todays bandwagon and other things he's done. And while Robz is I think likely town and his theory likely correct, I'm happy to accept it might be wrong, and Grujah might just be a mafia who got saved by a lucky break.

Glooble's twinclaim makes him interesting - I'm not overly suspicious but think we could gain something from it. Axxle2's said nothing remarkable in my opinion, and Green Opal too, and neither have rubbed me as especially town or mafia. DSell I have very little information on, although he's said a few good things. Frisk is interesting, he's posted some good analysis but also some posts which just seem like long accounts of information (e.g. 2078).

Missing are Robz, Galz and SFS. SFS I think is likely town, as I've said before (but don't think he's almost certainly town!). Robz and Galz I'm not convinced are town any more than the people from DSell down, but their activity is good, and I think that the cost of mislynching either could be too much.

[Robz888]

@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.

Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.

VOTE: O

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

willing to lynch:  Jo, Grujah

Unwilling to Lynch: Robz

Everyone else falls in the muddled middle ground to me.  Everyone has said some things I agree with, and everyone has said at least one thing that makes me go "hmm, that feels strange to me".

[Galzria]

Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players

I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.

You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.

[Robz888]

Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players

I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.

You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.

Why are my reads of you terrible? We were both mafia in MII, and in MIII I did not think you were mafia and I was correct.

[Galzria]

Want to lynch: Galzria, O
Willing to lynch: Jotheonah
Do not support, but would not complain if lynched: Grujah
Will not lynch; will argue against lynch of: All other players

I would like to reach a consensus among the people I mostly trust: Tables, SFS, Pops, Axxle, and Dsell depending on where he is. That would be 6 votes. Perhaps Glooble, Frisk, or Grujah--certainly some of them are innocent--would join in. And that would be that.

You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.

Why are my reads of you terrible? We were both mafia in MII, and in MIII I did not think you were mafia and I was correct.

Sorry, I should have said how incapable you are of reading me. Something you've admitted to many, many times, although I don't feel like digging through 80+ pages of posts to find the quotes.

[Captain_Frisk]

You'de think by now you would learn how terrible your reads of me are.

Why are my reads of you terrible? We were both mafia in MII, and in MIII I did not think you were mafia and I was correct.
[/quote]

Sorry, I should have said how incapable you are of reading me. Something you've admitted to many, many times, although I don't feel like digging through 80+ pages of posts to find the quotes.
[/quote]

These insults seem out of character Galz.

Back on topic

I'm not liking this "everyone list who they want to lynch" thing - without a pre-determined way to decide who to lynch when its over.

When its all done, vocal mafia (lets say pops because its his idea) just needs to look at someone the candidates who are on 7 or more "willing to lynch" and pick them.  You know that J will be there, I'm guessing pops and Galz too, maybe grujah and glooble.  Since we don't have an agreed upon way to select the lynchee - someone will be able to cherry pick a method that points to the desired candiate.  (Most first place votes, most votes total, etc. etc. etc.)

Townies who don't like it won't be able to back out without seeming like liars... which then the mafia can pounce on.  This massive consensus thing ends up giving mafia equal weight in the discussion of who to lynch - something that doesn't occur if we are specific targeting mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.

[Galzria]

Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.

Sorry, yeah. I thought it might be when I posted it, but I'm honestly frustrated with his terrible logic of magically having found 3 Mafia in 4 players. It's ridiculously confident on a group. I won't deny there might be one, hell, even TWO in there, but saying "I trust these 8, and think the 3 Mafia are amongst these 4" is arrogant and setting the town up for failure.

Furthermore, I KNOW his read on ME is terrible, which basically means his logic says "there are 3 Mafia amongst those 3 players". So when he continuously posts about my being Mafia and wanting to lynch me, it completely discredits anything he says. The fact that he has admitted many times over to being unable to read me just compounds this terrible play by him.

[Robz888]

Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.

Sorry, yeah. I thought it might be when I posted it, but I'm honestly frustrated with his terrible logic of magically having found 3 Mafia in 4 players. It's ridiculously confident on a group. I won't deny there might be one, hell, even TWO in there, but saying "I trust these 8, and think the 3 Mafia are amongst these 4" is arrogant and setting the town up for failure.

Furthermore, I KNOW his read on ME is terrible, which basically means his logic says "there are 3 Mafia amongst those 3 players". So when he continuously posts about my being Mafia and wanting to lynch me, it completely discredits anything he says. The fact that he has admitted many times over to being unable to read me just compounds this terrible play by him.

Galzria, please stop. I am not saying definitively "these are the 3 mafia. You must believe me." I am saying that I think a high number of mafia is among these people, for the reasons I spelled out. Do you honestly see no merit to my argument? And do you see how you and O have reacted especially poorly?

[Galzria]

Oops, deleted too many quotes - I think you guys will figure it out.

Sorry, yeah. I thought it might be when I posted it, but I'm honestly frustrated with his terrible logic of magically having found 3 Mafia in 4 players. It's ridiculously confident on a group. I won't deny there might be one, hell, even TWO in there, but saying "I trust these 8, and think the 3 Mafia are amongst these 4" is arrogant and setting the town up for failure.

Furthermore, I KNOW his read on ME is terrible, which basically means his logic says "there are 3 Mafia amongst those 3 players". So when he continuously posts about my being Mafia and wanting to lynch me, it completely discredits anything he says. The fact that he has admitted many times over to being unable to read me just compounds this terrible play by him.

Galzria, please stop. I am not saying definitively "these are the 3 mafia. You must believe me." I am saying that I think a high number of mafia is among these people, for the reasons I spelled out. Do you honestly see no merit to my argument? And do you see how you and O have reacted especially poorly?

Did you not just read where I said I believe there might be one, maybe two in that set, or are you being intentionally oblivious?

No, actually, I think my reaction to your terrible reads is quite justified. So Robz, please stop. Stay playing smart.

[Galzria]

Start playing smart*

[Robz888]

Okay then, what you're saying is GODDAMN YOU ROBZ, YOU UNBELIEVABLE MORON, YOU'RE MOSTLY CORRECT, YOU FOOL!

[Galzria]

Okay then, what you're saying is GODDAMN YOU ROBZ, YOU UNBELIEVABLE MORON, YOU'RE MOSTLY CORRECT, YOU FOOL!

Do I need to quote the posts to you where you've listed reasons for not suspecting the 8 people I listed you as having "not scum" reads on? OMGUS much? You say one thing and then completely try to turn around and claim you never said it.

[Robz888]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

[Galzria]

Robz, outside of your ridiculous argument about all the Mafia being amongst 4 people, can you please explain WHY you're so sure Grujah is town? "OMG he got a quick wagon" didn't stop you from thinking Jo was scum D1. Axxle's wain developed over 3 RL days (even though it was wrong). But the only argument you've actually made so far obviously didn't bother you about Jo when his wagon rolled to l-1 on D1. So what gives? Protecting much?

[Robz888]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

[Galzria]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

[Galzria]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

Yes, and I made it quite clear I did NOT want you to. I wanted you to go after Jo instead.

[Robz888]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

At least one of my "probably not scum" reads IS wrong, probably. But I don't know which one. And I don't have any evidence for which one. So I would rather shoot for mafia in the small group of people I highly suspect than in the moderate sized group of people I don't particularly suspect. Cant you see that?

[Robz888]

I'm not really protecting Grujah. I think he did do things to merit suspicion, which is why I suspected him in multiple previous posts. He was a top suspect of mine previously, until Glooble and Jo moved way up in my estimation.

Indeed, I would be OKAY with seeing him killed, because hey, he might be mafia, and if he's not, it goes a long way toward proving my theory.

What gives me pause about Grujah is, as I've said, the fact that he rapidly accrued votes from 6 people, 5 of whom had voted to mislynch Axxle the day before. You and I both voted to kill Morgrim, and we both voted to kill Kuildeous in MII. Remember?

Yes, and I made it quite clear I did NOT want you to. I wanted you to go after Jo instead.

Fine, but the mafia CAN win by pooling their votes for mostly the same people...

[Axxle]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

[Galzria]

But I don't suspect those people... I'm not sure but it doesn't seem like they are mafia...

But of that's true, it means ALL the Mafia are amongst 4 people. As I (which I admit, you cannot know) am not Mafia, that leaves just 3. Do you see why I would have a serious problem with the likelihood of this scenario? You've got to see that AT LEAST one of your "probably not scum" reads must be wrong.

At least one of my "probably not scum" reads IS wrong, probably. But I don't know which one. And I don't have any evidence for which one. So I would rather shoot for mafia in the small group of people I highly suspect than in the moderate sized group of people I don't particularly suspect. Cant you see that?

This. This is fine. But you haven't been saying this until now. Look at my post prior to joining Grujah's wagon. I believed there was a likely Mafia (or two) there as well. I wasn't GOING to vote until Axxle's actions (or lack thereof).

So: Jo, C.F., Pops (shared Axxle's D1 wagon),  O and Glooble.

Glooble's play was VERY suspicious as bussing. He hopped on early, came back, and found his partner at L-1. Your post have him a perfect reason to jump ship without waiting for your detailed post.

Pops you know how I feel.

Jo I would be happy to lynch

C.F. Has been very active, but shadowy. If Jo flips Mafia, I would HIGHLY suspect him. Otherwise, I just have a town feel for.

That leaves O... Which I admit, I have trouble reading. Similar to how you've claimed difficulty reading me. I can't point to a post where I think he pro-town tells (unlike with you), but I there are, to me, SO MANY people I feel better about.

Me - Well, if I had been lynched over my case on Pops I would've been fine because it would (I feel) likely lead to a Mafia death afterwards. If I get lynched over THIS however, I will NOT be happy, because it sets YOU up to fall, and I don't think you're scum, so the town losses two members, not counting NK's.

So... Yeah. That's my thoughts on the members of your "theory".

[Tables]

I'm looking at the names on the lists so far, and it's interesting. Ideally I'd like DSell and Frisk's opinions, but I'll continue as is for now.

I'll also point out I've simplified the lists slightly, to a binary system (high/low). If you dislike how I simplified what you said, point it out and I'll see how if affects things. I'm also not going to bother formatting this because, lazy, but you should get the gist of it (first name is the user, remaining names are the people they wanted to vote, in the order they gave).

Galz   Pops   Joth   Axxle   Grujah   Glooble   DSell
Dsell                  
Robz   Galz   O   Joth   Grujah      
Frisk                  
O   Pops   Joth   Glooble   Grujah      
Glooble   O   Grujah   Pops   Galz   Axxle   
Pops   Galz   O   Grujah   Axxle2      
Tables   O   Joth   Pops   Grujah      
Grujah   Axxle   O   Glooble   Joth      
Joth   Axxle   Grujah   Pops   Galz   O   
SFS   Joth   Grujah            
Axxle   Galz   O   Grujah   Joth   Glooble   Pops

Firstly everyone that's submitted a list except Grujah is happy with him being lynched. This makes me more confident he's town, as either the mafia have decided they're happy to bus him, or the mafia know he's somewhat scummy and can easily make him look suspicious. ... Did I mention the dream I had a few days/week ago? This is remarkably like that scenario. Of the two options, the second seems far more likely - there's no especially good case against Grujah except, he's been lurking.

The next two highest are Joth and O. Joth isn't a candidate of Pops (who gave a good reason for not wanting to lynch Joth (today) and Glooble (who is of course the twinclaim). O isn't a candidate of Galz or SFS, neither of whom have given good reasons for not putting him on (hardly surprising, as he hasn't been the focus of discussion for good chunks of two days...). This makes me somewhat uncomfortable - Galz isn't one of my scumreads and neither is SFS, so by my own logic this would likely make the mafia be trying to egg an O lynch on.

Next are Galz and Pops - notably who both put each other first on their lists (I don't know whether their lists were fully ordered though). I think I said this before of them, but I feel like they're two town members getting at each other's throats with the mafia pushing them. But... only Glooble, Axxle and Joth listed both as suspects (and Axxle has Galz top, Pops bottom). So if the mafia are pushing for suspicion onto both of them, they're being very careful, or otherwise are some of the three listed people. I'd actually be willing to cede one is likely mafia (and I personally think Pops as mentioned), but unlikely both.

Axxle is also there on 5, interestingly with the two most frequently elected candidates putting him top, and lower elected candidates putting him bottom.

I think I'm going to try and re-analyse this tomorrow afternoon, although that really doesn't give us much time. But for now (at risk of being accused of casting the first stone) I think O is probably the best candidate. He's not unanimously chosen and is the highest chosen excluding those, and of those electing him, he's the first or second pick 6 times out of 7.

[Galzria]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

More scum lies. Are you incapable of understanding "I don't think you're Mafia and could point to a single, particular, pro,town post you made"? Or is it just convenient to try and posh two townies to do your work for you?

[Dsell]

Oh. My. Gosh there are a lot of new pages.

Hey guys I'm back from vacation. I haven't read yet and I'm really tired after a long day in the car, but I will start reading tonight and try to get a substantive post in hooopefully tomorrow and then get back in the swing of things.

[Axxle]

*continues eating popcorn*

Robz, watch out behind you! *Galz swings axe*

Galz is being incredibly stubborn in trying to twist Robz's statements.

More scum lies. Are you incapable of understanding "I don't think you're Mafia and could point to a single, particular, pro,town post you made"? Or is it just convenient to try and posh two townies to do your work for you?

r u saying that? I honestly not cant tell.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm looking at the names on the lists so far, and it's interesting. Ideally I'd like DSell and Frisk's opinions, but I'll continue as is for now.

I'd like to re-iterate that I don't agree with this if we don't have a plan on how to lynch.  I think towngalz also once had issue with things like this - but no time to look it up - interesting that he isn't complaining today. 

In order:

Want to lynch
Pops - My #1 suspect.  I have a strong feeling that he is either mafia, or my #2 is.  If he flips town - I stronly want to lynch #2 tomorrow.
Galz - My #2 only because I've been wrong about him before, and because of the 2 of them, I'd rather have him alive and pops dead, than the other way around.
Joth - my vote is on him now - I do think there is a reasonable chance that he is mafia, and flipping him will reduce alot of noise from the system if he is not.  If he is Mafia - then a big ol FOS @ #2.  He could have stopped acting crazy a long time ago... and has continued to avoid doing so.

Maybe Willing to lynch
RobZ - Do not like this recent trend of angry posting.
O - O will never be clear in my book if he continues to play this way.
Axxle2 - my reasons for lynching him feel similar to Axxle1 - so I'm skeptical.  Smart Axxle-mafia-play, or just standard Axxleplay?

Likely unwilling to lynch
Dsell - not enough information
Grujah - Do not like that bandwagon
Glooble - Will not vote to lynch him before Jonah.
Tables - semicleared by SFS.  I hope mafia kills one of them tonight to clear this up.
SFS- ....

Will not lynch under any circumstances
Captain_Frisk.  Policy statement for ALL FUTURE MAFIA GAMES - LYNCH ME IF I EVER VOTE FOR MYSELF.

[popsofctown]

O lynch is go lynch

[jotheonah]

Vote: Galzria

The logic of his arguments is not up to snuff lately. For instance, he keeps saying to Robz that it doesn't make sense to be suspicious of the Grujah bandwagon but not of my Day 1 bandwagon, even though Robz has laid out the substantial differences between those wagons (including (A) the similarities between that and the Axxle1 wagon and (B) the fact that this wagon built much faster). There are other things too. He seems to feel like he can make Robz's theory crazy by repeating that it's crazy enough times.  Digging in + ignoring arguments = scummy, especially for Galz.

Not loving O either right now. But getting the scummiest vibe from G-money lately.

[Galzria]

Vote: Galzria

The logic of his arguments is not up to snuff lately. For instance, he keeps saying to Robz that it doesn't make sense to be suspicious of the Grujah bandwagon but not of my Day 1 bandwagon, even though Robz has laid out the substantial differences between those wagons (including (A) the similarities between that and the Axxle1 wagon and (B) the fact that this wagon built much faster). There are other things too. He seems to feel like he can make Robz's theory crazy by repeating that it's crazy enough times.  Digging in + ignoring arguments = scummy, especially for Galz.

Not loving O either right now. But getting the scummiest vibe from G-money lately.

You need to work on your reading comprehension mate. I've NEVER said that Grujah's wagon wasn't suspicious. I've said the exact OPPOSITE, many times, most recently on this very page. Either your being ignorant of that on purpose, or you need to go back and  reread very carefully.

Second, I compared Grujah's wagon to yours D1 because they DID roll just as quickly to L-1, but Robz had no problem with it when it was your head on the chopping block so quickly. The change in attitude struck me, and I was curious as to why.

I've also never said there is no merit in looking at Axxle's wagon. There are two people on both wagons I would be happy to lynch, with a decent feeling for hitting scum on: Pops, and You.

Robz's original argument WAS crazy. He's since dialed it back and admitted that he's probably got at least one read wrong. Saying "there is probably a Mafia amongst these 4" is different than saying "I really don't suspect these 8, so I think most of the Mafia are amongst these 4". He was standing by the second for the longest time, which made NO sense. It's ridiculous to think you've pegged the entire Mafia team D2 - and it's even more ridiculous to make that read based on the entire Mafia team voting together D1 and D2. It would be the greatest OMGUS play I've ever seen. Even in the smaller M-II game, with fewer Mafia, I did NOT want Robz on the same lynch as me D2. To believe 3+ would do so here is just... Well, crazy.

But as long as he's willing to admit that he's probably wrong on at least one of his reads, then yes, I agree that there was probably a Mafia (maybe two) on Grujah's wagon.

[Glooble]

I want to hear from DSell. He's been gone for a while, which will give him a different perspective. Maybe something will pop out at him that we missed while it was going on.

[jotheonah]

I still don't like the way you're arguing here, Galz.  You're repeating points instead of expounding on them. You have this affectation of "if you believe this you're just dumb" which I don't read as accurate, and I therefore read as an emotional manipulation of the argument.

[Galzria]

I still don't like the way you're arguing here, Galz.  You're repeating points instead of expounding on them. You have this affectation of "if you believe this you're just dumb" which I don't read as accurate, and I therefore read as an emotional manipulation of the argument.

There's really nothing left to say. At this point your being intentionally oblivious to the explanations. You, along with Axxle, are the two doing their absolute best to ignore what was ACTUALLY said, and seem intent on trying to keep Robz and myself arguing. For my part, I've at least reached a point where I believe what Robz is now saying is fair, so I'm not going to but into your attempts to keep townies arguing.

[Galzria]

Buy into*

[jotheonah]

You're right at least on one point. There's nothing more to say. You don't argue with scum, you try to convince others about them. And I've said my piece.

I don't like Galz's play lately. It's out of character.

[Captain_Frisk]

O lynch is go lynch

You ask us to put together a list - directly ignore questions on how we should use it - then you disappear for a while, and this is what you come back with?

Can't post more - have company for dinner - but seriously!

[jotheonah]

It's like ~16 hours til deadline. Volt, can we get a Vote Count?

[Glooble]

Well, I wanted to wait for DSell to weigh in, but we are getting up to the wire here. I, for one, feel very few qualms about this.

Vote: O

He's been giving me bad vibes all game, and has the best chance of a consensus being reached on him.

[Axxle]

For the record, although I don't mind O being suspected in general.  I do not like that he seems to be a completely new bandwagon this close to the end of the day.  I don't want to panic and mislynch him like Galz in MIII.  (With Grujah, Glooble, and now Tables looking closely at him)
It seems like there are enough players (me included) that think he's town that this won't happen, but I'm wary.

How so much changes after so short amount of time.

I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going.  A vote count would be useful.

[Robz888]

Just checking in to say I also support the O lynch, and have alreadyvoted that way. Galzria is a very close second, though. When the next day begins, I hope the town doesn't forget about Galzria and Jo, who are other people I have qualms about.

Power townies, be smart tonight.

[jotheonah]

Have to go for a while.

Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.

[Galzria]

Have to go for a while.

Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.

Confidant about being alive much?

[Galzria]

Alright, it's not my first choice, second choice, or even in my top 5.

But I would rather lynch than not, and I've admitted to having difficulty reading him. So:

Vote: O

[Galzria]

I believe O is at 4 votes, but an official count would be great.

[Dsell]

Still reading, quite a few pages left. Please don't lynch without me getting to say anything!

[popsofctown]

O lynch is go lynch

You ask us to put together a list - directly ignore questions on how we should use it - then you disappear for a while, and this is what you come back with?

Can't post more - have company for dinner - but seriously!

It rhymes.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-23

jotheonah (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk
Grujah (1): popsofctown
Glooble (1): Grujah
O (4): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria
Galzria (2): Axxle, jotheonah
popsofctown (1): O

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Axxle]

I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going.  A vote count would be useful.

Vote: O (L-2)
O you might need to claim if you haven't already.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused. 

[Galzria]

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.

I would MUCH rather lynch Jo than O (see Pops, I can rhyme too). He is actually in my top 3. But I don't want to no-lynch, and O had movement and some form of consensus. The fact that I'm not SURE I could tell town O from Mafia O doesn't help.

[Dsell]

Finished.

I'm going to start putting a lot of content together to summarize my impressions/ideas about who is scum as well as reasoning for my vote, but for now and since we have so little time, Vote: Galzria. In short, reading through these pages I at one point had completely bought into everything he was saying before realizing that he was still possible mafia. When I looked at what he said with that possibility in mind AND in light of some of the things he's said recently (ok I thought Robz was crazy at first too but I understood what he was meaning waaaay sooner than Galz did, and Galz was pretty rough on him about it), I actually feel VERY worried that he's mafia and exactly where he wants to be: front and center with a mix of people trusting and distrusting him.

I know it looks crazy that I'm getting on the bandwagon with the person I've campaigned hardest against, but jo is probably only my 3rd or 4th most-likely-to-be-mafia at this point.

I could support lynching O but I have some strong misgivings about it. He's been crazy and quite oddly defensive D2, but I don't believe he's ever been in serious hot water before in any game. I fear that lynching him, whether he flips mafia or town, will give us a lot of information about how O plays but not so much information we can use to make good lynches on future days. Obviously lynching mafia, if he is mafia, is worth it. But he's not at the top of my suspicions list and I still believe we have time to make a better choice.

Also, was O meaning that he was leaving immediately? Is he gone? Because that would be sucky to lynch someone while they're gone/a convenient excuse depending on how you look at it. But Axxle, if he's really gone I wouldn't be expecting a claim from him.

Like I said, more content to come.

[Galzria]

Finished.

I'm going to start putting a lot of content together to summarize my impressions/ideas about who is scum as well as reasoning for my vote, but for now and since we have so little time, Vote: Galzria. In short, reading through these pages I at one point had completely bought into everything he was saying before realizing that he was still possible mafia. When I looked at what he said with that possibility in mind AND in light of some of the things he's said recently (ok I thought Robz was crazy at first too but I understood what he was meaning waaaay sooner than Galz did, and Galz was pretty rough on him about it), I actually feel VERY worried that he's mafia and exactly where he wants to be: front and center with a mix of people trusting and distrusting him.

I know it looks crazy that I'm getting on the bandwagon with the person I've campaigned hardest against, but jo is probably only my 3rd or 4th most-likely-to-be-mafia at this point.

I could support lynching O but I have some strong misgivings about it. He's been crazy and quite oddly defensive D2, but I don't believe he's ever been in serious hot water before in any game. I fear that lynching him, whether he flips mafia or town, will give us a lot of information about how O plays but not so much information we can use to make good lynches on future days. Obviously lynching mafia, if he is mafia, is worth it. But he's not at the top of my suspicions list and I still believe we have time to make a better choice.

Also, was O meaning that he was leaving immediately? Is he gone? Because that would be sucky to lynch someone while they're gone/a convenient excuse depending on how you look at it. But Axxle, if he's really gone I wouldn't be expecting a claim from him.

Like I said, more content to come.

Hmm, interesting. Wrong, but interesting.

Let me ask this:

Lynch me if you must, but what do you learn when I flip pro-town? This question is actually for everybody, but Joth's vote on me means nothing to me, whereas Dsell's does, so I put the question here.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm on eastern time, and was out in the sun all day - so I'm turning in.  I'll be up early and will review in advance of deadline.  I am skeptical of O lynch - in my mind this is effectively a random lynch because O plays to not release any information... I don't see what we get - especially since everyone can claim they voted for O because of deadline...

I will hammer Pops or Galz in the morning if it is needed to avoid nolynch.  I am less likely to hammer anyone else, and my vote is still on J.

@Galz - if you flip town, I want to lynch Pops next.  Ditto for if Pops = town -> lynch you.  I would PREFER to lynch pops, if only because I enjoy reading your posts... rather than "it rhymes" vote justifications.

That said - your bickering with RobZ, your crazy gambit, your willingness to vote for someone who isn't even in your top 6 (according to the tables spreadsheet) all feel strange to me... especially considering that your "I'd rather lynch J than O" strikes me as strange given that they both had 3 votes on them when you cast your vote.

[Dsell]

Also, to make one of those "lists" pops was advocating, the people I could see as mafia and potentially get behind lynching are:

Galzria, Popsofctown (I'm sure they are not both mafia), Grujah, Jotheonah, O, and to a slightly lesser extent Glooble and Axxle2. C_F I'm a bit wary of but more neutral, Robz I believe is town but do not buy into everything he's said day 2 (But I have agreed with a lot. I think calling for Grujah's wagon to stop was smart because man that thing looked mafia fueled...that said I'm actually still pretty suspicious of him, so I'm unsure how to justify those two lines of thought). SFS and Tables I'm pretty confident are town, not going to entertain any other ideas yet.

I think that's everyone? If I've missed anyone I'm automatically suspicious of them because I've been wading in this mafia game for a few hours now and if they've flown under my radar, that scares me.

I know that's a huge list of people I'm suspicious of, and I hope it will shrink as I can clear my head and think about the connections some more. For now there's not time for that, and Galzria is head and shoulders above the rest in terms of suspicion for me. Oh, and the list also encompasses a couple of "prisms" as pops would say, so naturally when we see the alignment of the lynchee and the NK, the list should also shrink a bit more.

This is not the promised content, that will probably come later tonight because I'm about to watch a movie with family.

[Dsell]

(But I have agreed with a lot. I think calling for Grujah's wagon to stop was smart because man that thing looked mafia fueled...that said I'm actually still pretty suspicious of him, so I'm unsure how to justify those two lines of thought).

By "him" I mean Grujah, not Robz. Not currently suspicious of Robz.

[Galzria]

I'm on eastern time, and was out in the sun all day - so I'm turning in.  I'll be up early and will review in advance of deadline.  I am skeptical of O lynch - in my mind this is effectively a random lynch because O plays to not release any information... I don't see what we get - especially since everyone can claim they voted for O because of deadline...

I will hammer Pops or Galz in the morning if it is needed to avoid nolynch.  I am less likely to hammer anyone else, and my vote is still on J.

@Galz - if you flip town, I want to lynch Pops next.  Ditto for if Pops = town -> lynch you.  I would PREFER to lynch pops, if only because I enjoy reading your posts... rather than "it rhymes" vote justifications.

That said - your bickering with RobZ, your crazy gambit, your willingness to vote for someone who isn't even in your top 6 (according to the tables spreadsheet) all feel strange to me... especially considering that your "I'd rather lynch J than O" strikes me as strange given that they both had 3 votes on them when you cast your vote.

Fair enough. My vote to O is because things were moving that way and I honestly WOULDN'T know town O from Mafia O, and had him so low in my list in the hopes that over time a PR could read him for me.

I am town, but at least if I'm gonna get lynched, I know one person will still remember to look in the right direction next.

[popsofctown]

I'm getting epic indecision, so I just can't seriouspost in this thread anymore.  Un lieu of new information I'm not going to feel like anything but poetry until the day ends.

[Dsell]

Lynch me if you must, but what do you learn when I flip pro-town? This question is actually for everybody, but Joth's vote on me means nothing to me, whereas Dsell's does, so I put the question here.

I think this is an important question to consider with whomever we lynch. Obviously we don't have time to consider it with much length before the deadline, but maybe that's for the best so we don't have our whole day 3 planned out before day 2 is over.

Anyway...aside from the obvious analysis of your bandwagon and defenders, one thing that is interesting to me about you, Galz, is that when people made their lists, a lot of people said they were suspicious of you without putting you at the top of their lists/giving strong reasons for it. That seems like an easy way for a mafioso to disalign themselves from you, their partner, without actually putting you in much danger of a lynch.

I can't remember who said they dislike the lists because the mafia can just pick someone who is on everyone's list to try to lynch. This is true, but it's sooo easy for mafia to list their partners without too much concern. Everyone's list is going to be a little different and probably nearly everyone's list is going to be partially wrong. So I think the lists are a decent tool but I certainly don't think too much stock should be put in them. Heck, for those who I said I'm most suspicious of, I'm guaranteed to be wrong about at least one person, and that assumes that we have 4 mafia and I suspect all of them.

Besides, the chances that we are actually going to lynch someone who appears on only a couple people's list is just so small right now. And I really can't believe that we don't suspect ANY mafia at all right now.

And if you're lynched and you do flip town? Well I actually think that we gain a lot. You've done a ton of scumhunting, and we will be able to look at all of that and trust it all with 100% certainty (at this point especially I am unable to do that because it's looking to me like tons of mafia distraction). It's true that we would lose you for future scumhunting which would be very unfortunate, but losing a townie is usually unfortunate. But I'm not voting for Galzria because I think he's the best choice if he flips town, I'm voting because I think he's the most likely to flip scum of the main choices.

[Tables]

I'd like to say, I actually agree with what Frisk said about the O bandwagon. I pushed for it first, I know, and especially the fact he's inactive slightly discourages me.

Now we have all the lists... not much has actually changed. Frisk has appeared on nobodies list, which is a distinction only shared by myself and SFS. I find that somewhat interesting - is it a sign nobody really suspects Frisk, or (more likely) a mix of low suspicions and lack of information from lynching him? There's also a BIG jump in suspicion at some points: Robz and DSell also have only one vote, and the next lowest is then Glooble with 5.

One interesting tidbit of information is that I don't have Galz listed as being happy to lynch O. But he's already addressed that (e.g. above), so with that I think that makes everyone but SFS happy with an O lynch. Which... makes me uncomfortable. I've got a pretty scummy read on O, but I'm beginning to come around to the view it might just be his playstyle, which is admittedly a pretty unhelpful playstyle in general. I don't think O was under enough fire that the mafia would all be happy to bus him. On the other hand, a LOT of people put him as one of their top suspects, while a lot of others put him just on the bottom... perhaps at least one of those was a mafioso wanting to hedge with a semi-bus type vote, just so they can point back and go 'I wanted it' if they get lynched?

It's interesting how people were willing to jump onto this wagon. Well, some people, at least. And others aren't. I think we're all likely to get jumpy around now, so it's not surprising, as we have, what, a little over 12 hours? It's not long. But it's long enough.

I really need to make a note of WHEN people submitted their lists. It makes a difference as, for example, I think if someone was clearly not on a number of lists (e.g. Glooble, Axxle, Galz, Pops) then mafia would be more comfortable putting their teammate on if it wouldn't seem contradictory to their previous views. Townies were, I presume, honest about their lists, while of course the mafia were lying.

I really want to draw some kind of map showing connections of people willing to vote people, but I'm not sure how to do it easily and get information out of it.

Hmm... I'm less certain on O now, not because of O, but because of other's attitude to O. But this bandwagon hasn't grown THAT quickly I guess, and considering what I've seen... I'm comfortable with us finishing today with an O lynch.

[Galzria]

Lynch me if you must, but what do you learn when I flip pro-town? This question is actually for everybody, but Joth's vote on me means nothing to me, whereas Dsell's does, so I put the question here.

I think this is an important question to consider with whomever we lynch. Obviously we don't have time to consider it with much length before the deadline, but maybe that's for the best so we don't have our whole day 3 planned out before day 2 is over.

Anyway...aside from the obvious analysis of your bandwagon and defenders, one thing that is interesting to me about you, Galz, is that when people made their lists, a lot of people said they were suspicious of you without putting you at the top of their lists/giving strong reasons for it. That seems like an easy way for a mafioso to disalign themselves from you, their partner, without actually putting you in much danger of a lynch.

I can't remember who said they dislike the lists because the mafia can just pick someone who is on everyone's list to try to lynch. This is true, but it's sooo easy for mafia to list their partners without too much concern. Everyone's list is going to be a little different and probably nearly everyone's list is going to be partially wrong. So I think the lists are a decent tool but I certainly don't think too much stock should be put in them. Heck, for those who I said I'm most suspicious of, I'm guaranteed to be wrong about at least one person, and that assumes that we have 4 mafia and I suspect all of them.

Besides, the chances that we are actually going to lynch someone who appears on only a couple people's list is just so small right now. And I really can't believe that we don't suspect ANY mafia at all right now.

And if you're lynched and you do flip town? Well I actually think that we gain a lot. You've done a ton of scumhunting, and we will be able to look at all of that and trust it all with 100% certainty (at this point especially I am unable to do that because it's looking to me like tons of mafia distraction). It's true that we would lose you for future scumhunting which would be very unfortunate, but losing a townie is usually unfortunate. But I'm not voting for Galzria because I think he's the best choice if he flips town, I'm voting because I think he's the most likely to flip scum of the main choices.

Actually, I said that about lists, as Captain Frisk pointed out awhile back. And it's true, I don't like them. I refused to make one D1 because we weren't yet near the deadline and there was no reason to rush a consensus. Here, well, I would rather lynch than not, so it's a concession I felt necessary. Certainly not ideal, but...

Still, the one thing I don't want to see is me lynched, followed by a case against Robz. My argument with him was not a "you are misleading scum" argument, rather a "what you said is really misguided and faulty". There's a HUGE difference, and my fear is the Mafia trying to spin our argument into "Robz is scum".

[Axxle]

Yeah, forgot O was gone. 

@Galz, I thought you *were* saying that Robz was scum.  Thanks for clarifying.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm getting epic indecision, so I just can't seriouspost in this thread anymore.  Un lieu of new information I'm not going to feel like anything but poetry until the day ends.

Unvote

Vote: popsofctown

I knew I should not have checked this thread again before bed.  There hasn't been new info for days, where did you expect it to come from?  You started list mania, and then have gone back to useless posting again.

Galzwagon folks - lets pop pops first, and galzria tomorrow if we are wrong.  I would rather kill innocent pops than innocent galzria, and I'm pretty confident one of them is guilty. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

New prediction:  we won't lynch anyone.

I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.

Question for all, including Jo:  How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?

[Galzria]

New prediction:  we won't lynch anyone.

I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.

Question for all, including Jo:  How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?

Good lord I'd like to know that too. I think on my part, because I actually felt BAD for him earlier. I thought his play was irksome, but not scummy. But after the way he has played these last two irl days, I really don't believe that's the case anymore. He's been intentionally divisive, willfully ignorant, and so completely smug with himself that I really fail tutti draw many other conclusions.

[Galzria]

Fall to* - corrected error.

[Robz888]

I most once again implore everybody not to lynch Pops. I just don't think he would act this way if he was mafia. What's more, he has been consistent in his unhelpful, short, nuttiness. Whereas O and Galzria reacted very intriguingly to getting some heat put on them by me and my theory.

Also, consider this: Pops has had votes from soooo many people, certainly from some of the people who are actually mafia. Basically nobody except me has ever defended him.

Tables, i am not forgetting Frisk. I think there is good chance Frisk is mafia. I don't like that he appears to buy into my theory--I think--but votes for the person I think is least likely to fit the theory: Pops. Frisk may very well be mafia, along with either O, or Galzria, or Jo, or I guess Glooble.

Okay, let me go over where I stand again: I want to lynch O or Galzria. Recent events have made them both, in my view, the run away first place people for suspicion. They also did not turn on each other immediately when I asked them about each other--or at least O didn't about Galzria, Galzria has sort of slyly turned on O now, which is a smart thing to do before O flips mafia. And I think O will flip mafia. I think they will both flip mafia. We will see.

Their accomplices are most likely Jo or Frisk, or somebody I have overlooked among the other people: Pops or Glooble, or perhaps even Axxle or Dsell. I know Galzria gets upset about my certainty over these things, so let me pre-empt him: I am NOT certain at all. But I think my argument for why certainly people are mafia is the best theory out there, and Galzria and O's reactions to it have been very, very clarifying.

I will lynch O or Galzria, whichever one is the consensus.

[Robz888]

But after the way he has played these last two irl days, I really don't believe that's the case anymore. He's been intentionally divisive, willfully ignorant, and so completely smug with himself that I really fail tutti draw many other conclusions.

Galzria, I have made that argument against Jo since Day 1. It seems awfully convenient that you are buying it now, with you and O in the hot seat.

[Dsell]

I most once again implore everybody not to lynch Pops. I just don't think he would act this way if he was mafia. What's more, he has been consistent in his unhelpful, short, nuttiness. Whereas O and Galzria reacted very intriguingly to getting some heat put on them by me and my theory.

The thing that worries me about the O bandwagon is that we've never seen O under pressure. He has a very distinctive playstyle but I fear this may be a side of townO that we've just never seen. That's not to say that I haven't noticed his really defensive, jumpy behavior and that it hasn't bothered me and made me suspicious...it has, and I am certainly willing to lynch him if that's the best option over no lynch. But if this is just O being O and we mislynch, then I am really not sure what we've gained (see question posed by Galzria in 2188).

[jotheonah]

New prediction:  we won't lynch anyone.

I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.

Question for all, including Jo:  How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?

I ask myself this question constantly.

I really don't want to be alive at Lylo, because it'll be too easy for the mafia to convince the remaining town to lynch me instead of them and then the town will lose and it will pretty much be my fault.

Robz, I agree with you re: Galz and O.

New prediction:  we won't lynch anyone.

I'll check the thread in the hour before the deadline in the morning, and may be sorely tempted to sheep.

Question for all, including Jo:  How is it that we've STILL not lynched Jo?

Good lord I'd like to know that too. I think on my part, because I actually felt BAD for him earlier. I thought his play was irksome, but not scummy. But after the way he has played these last two irl days, I really don't believe that's the case anymore. He's been intentionally divisive, willfully ignorant, and so completely smug with himself that I really fail tutti draw many other conclusions.

intentionally divisive: not really, that would imply that my votes and FoSes actually had any effect on anybody
willfully ignorant: not really sure what you mean here, but I have to say all my ignorance has been accidental
completely smug with myself: well, ok, guilty as charged, but you could lynch half this town for that offense ; )

[Glooble]

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Quite a few. Jo, myself (obviously), Robz, Tables, SFS, and, at the moment, you, are all people I absolutely wouldn't lynch. I voted for the person who was at the top of my suspicion list when it became clear he was on a lot of other people's lists too. I feared not being online again before the deadline.

I didn't realize O was gone and unable to defend himself. This puts me slightly on edge because on the off chance that he has a power role, we might lynch him before he gets a chance to claim. But I'm concerned I might not wake up before the deadline, so I don't want to risk unvoting and leaving the town one vote short of a lynch. I'm keeping my vote where it is for the night.

If I wake up and anyone else on my list (Grujah, pops, Galz, or Axxle) is closer to a lynch than O, I will likely switch my vote to that person for the sake of getting a lynch, having a chance of hitting mafia, and having concrete information. I really can't see myself voting to lynch anyone other than those four based on currently available information.

[jotheonah]

New vote, because deadline is soon and idk where Volt is:

jotheonah (2): SwitchedFromStarcraft
Grujah (1): popsofctown
Glooble (1): Grujah
O (5): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle
Galzria (2): jotheonah, Dsell
popsofctown (2): O, Captain_Frisk

[jotheonah]

*New vote count.  People were asking, and I'm getting good at doing them in MV, so yeah. 2 switches to O gets us a lynch, though, IMO not as good a lynch as Galzria is right now.

[Dsell]

Ack, I for some reason thought it was 10 am Pacific. Nope, Eastern. Well I guess I'll be getting up early.

Glooble makes a good point that I'm not sure how I missed earlier: O has no chance now to claim if he's a power role. You'd think he'd have done that before leaving since the bandwagon on him was already rolling but...who knows. Ugh, it's just so risky guys. We have got to get a lynch and I will certainly vote for him over no lynch but it feels too risky.

Ah, but I am really unsure if there's time. Looks like nobody else is really online. 

[Grujah]

Great, now f.ds is acting up too. And I am starting to hate forum mafia as this AP from too much WIFOM analysis is driving me nuts.

We again didn't lynch jo (I blame myself for D1, and now I again didn't switch from Glooble last night cuz i wanted "a good night sleep") and he has like 1 vote left.

O wagon: I hate Axxle being on it (actually, I am starting to hate Axxle with his one-liners generally), I am not sure how Galz switched so fast to someone so down in his list (also don't like him being antagonistic against rob after wagongate, but don't take too much from that). I tend to trust Tables as our opinions did match a few times (D1 too) and he is semi-confirmed.

I want to trust Robz. If he was going to make that wagongate analysis and he was mafia, he could have just let me die and do it in hindsight than. It would still work. What I don't like about this guy is that he has clearly put pops on both wagons, and than defends him (that's ok, he trusts him) but he also takes it against Frisk for going after him just because he [pops] is the least likely fit, in Robz's opinion. Weakish claim/attack.

I wary what will happen if O flips town. How much do we read from this lynch mob. Whom do we go after next?

Looking on other wagons, don't know how much Galz' has merit... sdfsd
s
I stated my opinion on O before (even before whole wagon developed here) I need half an hour to think through, but I'll probably
Vote O (Volt: this is not a hard vote yet). Gonna breakfast now.

[Grujah]

Also don't like Glooble on O as Glooble seems to be on everyone (kinda like jo - is it a genetic thing?)

[Grujah]

Galz's wagon so far is.. jo (me no likes him) and Dsell who, if my hunch is correct, is against mafia in any case.

I am starting to think I'd like Galz or Axxle lynch more than O.
In the unlikely event that something changes:
Vote: Galzria

[Grujah]

To make it clear, I'd still do O lynch than no lynch, this is just a try to do Galz lynch and not O lynch.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-24

jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
Grujah (1): popsofctown
O (5): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle
Galzria (3): jotheonah, Dsell, Grujah
popsofctown (2): O, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

[Grujah]

2 hours left, obviously nothings gonna change drastically, only Galz and Frisk online.

O i considered decent lynch candidate, so,
Unvote
Vote: O

[Galzria]

2 hours left, obviously nothings gonna change drastically, only Galz and Frisk online.

O i considered decent lynch candidate, so,
Unvote
Vote: O

You JUST voted for me an hour and a half ago man. Why the sudden switch back to O, putting him at L-1, so close to deadline? Multiple people have made it clear they want to lynch me first.

I don't know. I don't like lynching O, but don't mind either since I really can't read him, but your switch here just feels opportunistic.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am online - but I will not be hammering O.  I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here.  He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon? 

I'm removing myself because I know I'm not mafia.  That leaves me with Jo, Galz, Glooble, Pops. 

As I've stated before, I prefer J to Glooble, and Pops to Galz.  J for legit suspicions reasons, and Pops over Galz for personality - since I don't really have a strong read for one or the other.  I am willing to let the twinclaim thing ride for a bit, hence my vote for pops, but I lynch J or Galz if need be.

[Galzria]

Robz: I think, looking at the vote spread, there is some merit in a potential O/C.F/Axxle (sub in many others). If O is Mafia, it clears Pops for me. That's the biggest reason I want to see O lynched now. He's been too strongly playing alongside me, and for someone I can't read, that worries me. Similar to how I used Jo in M-II. Captain Frisk I haven't said much about because at this point and time, there wasn't much use. But I DID point out that I've gotten a very shadowy vibe from him a few pages back - and the fact that he's landed on Pops (an unliklely lynch today) alongside O makes me even more suspicious.

[Grujah]

2 hours left, obviously nothings gonna change drastically, only Galz and Frisk online.

O i considered decent lynch candidate, so,
Unvote
Vote: O

You JUST voted for me an hour and a half ago man. Why the sudden switch back to O, putting him at L-1, so close to deadline? Multiple people have made it clear they want to lynch me first.

I don't know. I don't like lynching O, but don't mind either since I really can't read him, but your switch here just feels opportunistic.

I was pro-O lynch from start. I voted for him before my bandwagon formed, him being on it raised even more suspicion. I am not positive on him, though. I don't like Axxle's and Glooble's vote there, yours not much either. You gave some other reason to suspect you.

But there is no way we are going to get a lynch on you now. Even with Frisk and SFS its 5, rest are offline, i am not willing to gamble and end up with no lynch - which is bad. O is a good lynch target in my opinion.

[Galzria]

Also, Frisk's most recent post confirms the above if O flips Mafia.

Left to hammer:

SFS
Jo
Dsell
Pops
C.F.

For the record, if you believe the Mafia won't bus, then there are two Mafia in that list. Cross examined with the list of wagon voters, and you get:

C.F. - Jo - Pops

Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.

If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.

And yes Robz, I see that this list is the same as yours, viewed from a different angle. If it's accurate, I stand by the fact that it's serious OMGUS play by the Mafia team this game.

[Galzria]

It's worth noting however, that if O flips town, I go right back to Pops/Axxle/---- I stand firmly behind my feelings about them. At this point though it all hinges on O's flip.

[Grujah]

I am also not sure what to think of you if O flips town. You were backing him up (trusted/protected is maybe better therm actually) and than you voted for him due to "unable to read him well".

I will be online till deadline in case something changes and needs reacting (like votes on you).

[jotheonah]

Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.

[Grujah]

Edit: But I agree on Pops going up in scummyness if O is town.

[Galzria]

Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.

Keep it scummy Jo.

Still won't hammer your partner, huh? Good call.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

What a mess.  OK, I'll do this.  I don't have many good reasons, but here they are:

1) Robz is my biggest town read right now, and he's parked on O.
2) I don't want no lynch, and there are no other likely candidates with 90 minutes left.
3) Jo will never be lynched.

Concerns:
1) O hasn't been here to claim (so this will be another screwup my part regarding claiming, but hey, it's a game).
2) If O flips town, mafia have successfully gotten the guy most generally viewed as Town to hammer another townie.

Request for PR's: Protect someone other than me, cause I'm mostly done with this game.

UNVOTE
VOTE: O (aka .)

[Galzria]

SFS, I know you're online now:

This lynch of O will be hugely informative, and if he IS Mafia, his partners won't bus him. Lynching him is in the hands of you, Dsell,, and Pops - and I don't know when the other two will be online, but our timeframe is an hour away. So I implore you to vote O, so we can finally get some information again.

[jotheonah]

Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.

Keep it scummy Jo.

Still won't hammer your partner, huh? Good call.

I'm here watchin, ain't I? I was willing to throw that hammer but I thought we'd give O the full hour to miraculously come back from V/LA and role claim, or whatever. I didn't see the need to quickhammer.

Oh well, moot now.

[Galzria]

What a mess.  OK, I'll do this.  I don't have many good reasons, but here they are:

1) Robz is my biggest town read right now, and he's parked on O.
2) I don't want no lynch, and there are no other likely candidates with 90 minutes left.
3) Jo will never be lynched.

Concerns:
1) O hasn't been here to claim (so this will be another screwup my part regarding claiming, but hey, it's a game).
2) If O flips town, mafia have successfully gotten the guy most generally viewed as Town to hammer another townie.

Request for PR's: Protect someone other than me, cause I'm mostly done with this game.

UNVOTE
VOTE: O (aka .)

Thank you! Now we wait, and hope.

[Galzria]

Whichever way O flips, I'm pushing for a Galzria wagon tomorrow. It looks like I'll have company, so that's nice.

Keep it scummy Jo.

Still won't hammer your partner, huh? Good call.

I'm here watchin, ain't I? I was willing to throw that hammer but I thought we'd give O the full hour to miraculously come back from V/LA and role claim, or whatever. I didn't see the need to quickhammer.

Oh well, moot now.

Those are empty words Jo, and you know it. "Oh, I would have" means nothing. Just like Frisk "would have" voted for you all day but never did.

[jotheonah]

Galzria, I get that you want to discredit me now that I've made it clear I'm going after you whether you bussed your partner or not. But you don't really need to waste your breath. I'm auto-discredited.

[Grujah]

jo, you keep digging a deeper hole. Me liking Galz or no, you going super-confidently and smugly against him stinks.

[jotheonah]

Let the record show that when I'm unsure about a target (and therefore switch my vote/accuse widely) that's scummy, but when I become sure about a target, that's also scummy.

I've officially concluded that if you worry about being scummy in this game, you'll never get anything done.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.

You mean the tell that RobZ reponded with "EXACTLY" to?  I will note that I was parked on J all day - and you continued to vote for O, even though you said you'd prefer a J lynch to O, and they were at the same # of votes.

If it was a huge tell, why am I only drawing your suspicion now?

[Captain_Frisk]

We actually did just lynch O?  5 + Grujah + SFS?

So the bandwagon is:
Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle, Grujah, SFS

That actually looks ok to me.  This is going to be a very interesting flip.

[Galzria]

Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.

You mean the tell that RobZ reponded with "EXACTLY" to?  I will note that I was parked on J all day - and you continued to vote for O, even though you said you'd prefer a J lynch to O, and they were at the same # of votes.

If it was a huge tell, why am I only drawing your suspicion now?

It's not a "drawing suspicion now" thing, it was a "what use is saying something then" thing. And I needed more information. Like if O flips Mafia.

The reason it WAS worth mentioning now is in case I die tonight.

[Galzria]

I encourage everybody to go back and read the posted "would lynch" lists during the night. There are some interesting things there. Don't just read names though, read what people actually said. The last 72 hours of posting has been VERY informative.

[Galzria]

Volt come tell us which way to go
With this lynch, of dear 'ol O.

[Captain_Frisk]

Volt come tell us which way to go
With this lynch, of dear 'ol O.

As much as I want volt to come in here and tell us what is what, I'd really like O to come in here and claim - so that we can have some meaningful discussion before we're locked.

[Dsell]

Ah ok I see the deed has been done. I got up early to make sure we got a lynch but the hammer's been thrown. If O is a role, I'm gonna be so angry with him for not letting us know somehow. Let's hope this flip can do us some good.

[Glooble]

I'm starting to get a little nervous about that do, but what's done is done, so at this point we just need to make the most of it. As Galz said, either way he flips we've learned a lot today.

[jotheonah]

[fakemod] O, Town Jester, has been lynched [/fakemod]

[Dsell]

Scumbag mod is not online to give us the flip... >.>

[Galzria]

Scumbag mod is not online to give us the flip... >.>

I wanna change my vote to Volt.

[Axxle]

1) Robz is my biggest town read right now, and he's parked on O.

Not Tables?

[Axxle]

Request for PR's: Protect someone other than me, cause I'm mostly done with this game.

Aww...




I'll say my thoughts about mafia in the morning depending on what information we get.

[Grujah]

Jonah come back on Iso so I can kick your ass some more 

[Voltgloss]

Scumbag mod has been in work meetings since 6.

O is lynched.  He was a Mafia Goon.  Flavor this evening.

Night 2 has begun. This thread is now LOCKED.

[O]

Request: viewing rights to discussion qt (I won't post) if there are no objections.

[Voltgloss]

Night 2 commands are due 48 hours from Night 2 start.  So, by 10:40 a.m. EDT Wednesday morning.

I will not be at a computer Wednesday except for early morning and then late afternoon/early evening.  If I have all night commands by Wednesday around 6 a.m. EDT, I will start Day 3 then.  If not, Day 3 start will be Wednesday early evening (probably between 4:30 and 6:30 p.m. EDT).

Saw your request, O, but am concerned about someone having both discussion QT and mafia QT.  PM me if you want to discuss further.  Thanks.

[Voltgloss]

Final vote count, and flavor text

Vote Count 2-25

Grujah (1): popsofctown
O (7): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Galzria (2): jotheonah, Dsell
popsofctown (2): O, Captain_Frisk

Twelve dispirited Estate dwellers sat around the Throne Room table.  The day's Feast sat before them, but it was largely untouched.

"This Feast lacks flavor.  No flavor at all so far." muttered Galzria.  The others nodded.

"And this is the longest day I've ever seen." added Tables.  The others nodded again.

And the floor collapsed.

When the twelve of them picked themselves up amidst the rubble and debris, they found themselves in an underground Mine.  Apparently the secret of the Lord's wealth was sitting right under his Throne Room.  Veins of Gold and Silver sparkled amongst the walls.

But Treasure wasn't on the twelve minds.  "With these tunnels, maybe we can find a way out!"  Spoken first by Grujah; quickly agreed upon by the others.

"But wait, we need to eat first.  Gotta keep up our strength!"  This from jotheonah.  Appetites restored, the twelve hauled themselves out of the Mine pit and charged, dusty but invigorated, to the Estate kitchens.

The chef quailed before them.  "Your esteemed... eminences, I am dreadfully sorry but the Mafia must have made off with all my spices!  There is no flavor here to add taste to your Feast!"

This gave the twelve pause.  But only for a few minutes.

"If the Mafia have all our flavor..." mused Tables...

"...then the answer is obvious." smiled Robz888.

And then Glooble, Galzria, and Axxle suddenly grabbed O and shoved him into an oven.  Grujah slammed the door shut and SwitchedFromStarcraft set the temperature gauge to "extra crispy."

After the screaming died down, they opened the oven.  A Feast of linguini carbonara spilled out.

They smiled at each other.  This time, they chose right.  O was lynched, and was a Mafia Goon.

[Voltgloss]

Nine Estate dwellers, rested and ready to tackle the day, convened in the Throne Room to start exploring the Mine in earnest.

Two people were already there.

One was a pair of legs sticking out from under a collapsed cave wall down in the Mine.  Examination of the scene showed that the cave-in was not natural - the remains of a Gold vein lay by primarily Copper rubble, when everyone knows a proper Mine leads from Copper to Silver before reaching Gold.  Taking off the unfortunate's boot produced a hidden room key.  Which led to Galzria's room, and evidence therein confirmed his being a Town Vanilla.

The other had been trussed up nicely on the Throne Room table in the manner of a suckling pig.  Except instead of an apple, an axe had been wedged in the deceased's face.  Extracting it, Grujah's name could be seen amongst the blood.  Apparently this Town Woodcutter had been taken by surprise and, in the end, finished off with his own weapon.

Nine remained, staring at the Mine, the corpses, and then each other. 

Day 3 Start

Galzria, Town Vanilla, has been killed.
Grujah, Town Woodcutter, has been killed.

Not voting: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

THIS THREAD IS NOW UNLOCKED.

[jotheonah]

So I guess I convinced someone Galzria was mafia.  Which it turns out was wrong.

Do you guys think Grujah ever used his shot? We've had two kills both nights, which suggests either a second vig or an SK.  But if Grujah ever used his shot we'd have had 3 kills, unless we also had a successful Doc/JK.  I guess we shouldn't role fish.

If Grujah DID use his shot, it's very possible he used it on Galz. It's likely to me that either way Gruj was the mafia kill and Galz was the sk/vig kill.

But they BOTH had a lot of suspicion on them, neither of them makes much sense to me as a scum kill.

Also, good job on lynching O everybody.

[Robz888]

My immediate thoughts are that Grujah makes sense for the mafia to kill, because O being scum largely clears him.

Galzria is a baffling kill, unless he was killed by the Vigilante; that we have a Vigilante is something I have suspected since theorel was killed. Of course, we could have a SK masquerading as a Vigilante. But Galzria was absolutely going to be my top suspect today, so it was a good choice.

I must of course toot my own horn about my theory yesterday, which was at least partially right about getting O. And probably we can get some other people now. I will have top suspects of the day very soon.

[Robz888]

What shot??? What on earth are you talking about?

[Robz888]

And second Vig? Why 2 Vigs? Am I in the wrong discussion thread???

[Captain_Frisk]

What shot??? What on earth are you talking about?

Woodcutter == vig (I think)

[jotheonah]

Agreed that Galz's being NK'd is somewhat of a blessing, since with you and I both going after him, today would likely have been a clusterf*** with him alive. 

Am I right that, given yesterday's events and tonight's flips, the FoS should land now on pops? (And also, alas, on me. I'm aware I don't look great right now.)

@Robz: Woodcutter = one-shot vigilante

[Captain_Frisk]

What shot??? What on earth are you talking about?

Woodcutter == vig (I think)

Woodcutter == 1 shot vig (confirmed from page 1)

[Robz888]

Oops, got it!!!

[Robz888]

Here is a post I was looking for. Note that O made this post before anybody (other than me) had turned on him to lynch:

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy

I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.

If any of these people were fellow scum with O (and I suspect some are), where do you think he would have placed them? Probably not "most scummy" where Glooble is. Also, Pops is totally acquitted, right? Cuz O went after him the hardest.

[Robz888]

I might as well say it: Frisk and Jo look fairly suspicious to me at this point.

[Robz888]

A problem with O is there is no easy way to search all his posts....

[Dsell]

YES this is the first time we managed to lynch mafia before D3 and without a role's help, right?? We are an awesome town.

So I was just totally wrong about Galz and need to go back and reconsider what he said. Also, obviously, O being mafia  should give us a ton of info. Now I'm sorry I missed that bandwagon and was against lynching him. Ugh.

Grujah was Woodcutter...so this says to me that we probably don't have a full vig, which would mean we DO have a SK. Or a couple of woodcutters who've used their kills. I suppose there's no way to know whether he used his power? It doesn't look likely.

Galzria...he would have been really helpful going forward. Similar to Robz in MIII, I'm actually somewhat helpful that he's not here, he would have been my first pick for a D3 lynch.

Pre-post edit: ^^this is no longer especially new info. Oh well.

[Robz888]

Okay, I am reading every single one of O's posts right now Will report back soon.

[popsofctown]

A problem with O is there is no easy way to search all his posts....

Ctrlf "username: O".  It grabs the isotropic username part of someone's info.

[Tables]

Well, this means we have at least two people outside the mafia with night killing capabilities. That's quite a lot - I suspect it might be there were two Woodcutters as opposed to anything else. Of course, speculation gets us nowhere.

One observation I'd make is that, in terms of roles revealed thus far, we've not seen (m)any real power roles. Lots of townies, some one shot roles (revealed or claimed), a village idiot, and a generic goon. It's quite possible that most of the town are weak roles, and thus the mafia will likely be quite small, possibly just two people and a SK.

Other than that, I need to update my sheet with the night kills and try and work out what this all means. Will be updating soon.

[Dsell]

Also, Pops is totally acquitted, right? Cuz O went after him the hardest.

Pops is looking pretty town to me too now. No way O would throw his partner under the bus that hardcore. And they were "frenemigos" earlier in the game too.

I gotta admit that on that continuum, Frisk is in a spot that looks like a potential scumbuddy. But I have to go back and reread before I can give a proper FOS.

[popsofctown]

In honor of Galzria's memory, we should sheep his reads today.  But not his read of me, I am confident he would have changed that if he knew I was town.

In sheeping, we bring woolly honor to our ancestors.

[popsofctown]

what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.

[jotheonah]

And Grujah's too. There's plenty of info to analyze. (I will be all over it much later tonight. I have work and meetings and things like that).

[Dsell]

In honor of Galzria's memory, we should sheep his reads today.  But not his read of me, I am confident he would have changed that if he knew I was town.

In sheeping, we bring woolly honor to our ancestors.

+1 for "woolly honor," not sheeping his reads. Obviously a ton more stock can be put into his reads, but I don't think we should necessarily vote for them just because he was suspicious.

Also, Galz, +1 for that SK gambit...that was really ballzy as town.

[popsofctown]

And Grujah's too. There's plenty of info to analyze. (I will be all over it much later tonight. I have work and meetings and things like that).

I am less convinced of Grujah's prowess.  Though perhaps since Grujah read me better I should be more convinced instead.

preview edit: I hope by "ballzy" you mean "dumb way to get yourself vigged as town".

[Robz888]

what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.

Exactly. And as I read back through, O does lots of putting Frisk at the top of his suspicions, and a lot of quarreling with him... but not substantive quarreling. More like bickering. With you, it was bickering but he did actually vote for you and campaign for you. Frisk does occupy a much scummier spot.

O also defended Jo big time, all the time. This has to be weighed, because Jo was close-ish to lynch a couple times. If Jo was not mafia, would O care to defend him? The answer might be yes, but still.

[Robz888]

Oh, and yeah, I think it makes perfect sense that Grujah would use his Vig powers to kill Galzria. I said it was O and Galzria here, the people most likely to be mafia, that was pretty much the consensus, and yeah, O flipped mafia. So I can easily see Grujah picking to kill Galzria.

[Dsell]

preview edit: I hope by "ballzy" you mean "dumb way to get yourself vigged as town".

Well maybe so. But still, he was trying to help and that's a really cool way of doing it. And I'm sure he was aware of the risks of doing so.

[popsofctown]

what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.

Exactly. And as I read back through, O does lots of putting Frisk at the top of his suspicions, and a lot of quarreling with him... but not substantive quarreling. More like bickering. With you, it was bickering but he did actually vote for you and campaign for you. Frisk does occupy a much scummier spot.

O also defended Jo big time, all the time. This has to be weighed, because Jo was close-ish to lynch a couple times. If Jo was not mafia, would O care to defend him? The answer might be yes, but still.

We were so likely to see Jo's underbelly at any point, O had a lot to gain by disseminating accurate information about Jo's alignment.

Jo would be a day 1 bus speedbump.  I think O's death reflects positively on Jo more than negatively.

[Tables]

I agree with DSell - having looked back, Frisk now looks somewhat suspicious to me. Firstly his unwillingness to vote O, and disagreement with Pops suggestion of listing people we'd be happy to lynch, and putting O nice and low down - on his list, but low - all seem somewhat suspicious. Unwillingness to vote O is WIFOM, but suspicious nevertheless, and disagreeing with the listing makes sense if he's scum, as the list was making O look like a probable lynch. Trying to err the town away from using it would potentially save his scumbuddy. It's not enough for me to vote right now, but he's up on my suspicion list now.

Pops is down a fair bit - he proposed the method, and he WAS O's top target, which again is WIFOM but seems less likely to me.

[Robz888]

Okay, hold on. I see now that O did add a second vote onto Frisk here:

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).

Vote: Captain Frisk

Pops had already voted for him. So.... dunno.

[Robz888]

Later, he switches to voting Glooble.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So if I've read correctly, Robz is reviewing O posts, Tables and Jo are reviewing general stuff, and Dsell is reviewing Frisk.

@Robz and Tables (who are my strongest town reads right now): I need some guidance. My gut tells me to go back and review Galz's posts.  Is this likely to yield actionable information?  Should I concentrate on something else?

[Axxle]

Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead.  In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill.  The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.

Regarding O's defense of Joth.  It does seem strange.  I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't.  I'm tending toward the latter.

PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah (1): popsofctown
O (7): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria, Axxle, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Galzria (2): jotheonah, Dsell
popsofctown (2): O, Captain_Frisk[/color]

Ok - So we almost lynched Grujah with the following wagon (Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, jotheonah, O, Galzria)
We lost 2 of the people who were correct on O. 
Pops was voting on a confirmed innocent man (scummy)
J and DSell were voting on a confirmed innocent man, but together.
O (mafia) and I were voting for pops - which tends to make me look scummy and pops less so.

The people who refused to vote for O were: popsofctown, jotheonah, Dsell, O, Captain_Frisk

If mafia refused to bus O, they are in trouble - even if it means killing all 4 of us. 

We have 1-3 mafia remaining, and 0-1 serial killers? (and we can't have 3 mafia + 1 SK).

I tend to suspect pops / jo / DSell / me... in that order - but I now after watching O flip mafia, I'm rethinking DSell as a lurker.

Pre post edit: 20 replies!!!!

Pre post edit: Can't suspect DSell on account of OMGUS.

[jotheonah]

O's constant defending of me served one purpose for him; it got me on his side. Even at the end, I held off hammering him. I was trying not to let his stalwartness as my ally sway me in evaluating him, but ... perhaps it did get to me on some level.

But I also think perhaps he was hoping I would get lynched and he could ride the good graces of my flip.

The other person who has behaved toward me very similarly to O is, of course, pops, but that isn't scummy per se. I wouldn't expect the scum team to embrace matching strategies on anything, necessarily (nor would I rule it out). I know, not helpful.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead.  In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill.  The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.

Regarding O's defense of Joth.  It does seem strange.  I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't.  I'm tending toward the latter.

PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.

But if mafia targeted me or Tables, they run the risk of wasting a NK, as the protective roles had been advised several times to protect (one of) us.

[Dsell]

Also, Frisk's most recent post confirms the above if O flips Mafia.

Left to hammer:

SFS
Jo
Dsell
Pops
C.F.

For the record, if you believe the Mafia won't bus, then there are two Mafia in that list. Cross examined with the list of wagon voters, and you get:

C.F. - Jo - Pops

Pops is semi clear if O is Mafia. Jo and C.F. I've tied together in the past. Frisk talked a HUGE game all day about lynching Jo for being Jo, but refused to actually vote for him. His comment to Jo "Unvote yourself NOW and make them work to lynch you!" Was a huge tell.

If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.

And yes Robz, I see that this list is the same as yours, viewed from a different angle. If it's accurate, I stand by the fact that it's serious OMGUS play by the Mafia team this game.

So this was one of Galz's last posts, and it's basically exactly what we've been talking about. This also reminds me that C_F was on Axxle1's wagon. Like I said, I DO NOT think we should target C_F just because Galz*thealmightytownie*ria said we should, but he has had some dang good reads in the past.

Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.

[jotheonah]

Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead.  In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill.  The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.

Regarding O's defense of Joth.  It does seem strange.  I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't.  I'm tending toward the latter.

PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.

NO WAY the mafia targets Galzria with me having explicitly stated I was going after him today and Robz having strongly implied it. He was lynch target #1. Lots of chaos and noise, very good for the mafia. If Galz was the scum target, I'll eat my hat.

[jotheonah]

Let's remember that once O had six votes, there was not that much incentive for his partner(s) not to hammer. O wasn't gonna live, and a bus would be very helpful to clearing them. I think that's a weak reason to suspect someone.

[Robz888]

This is truly hard to read:

Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria

O turns on Jo more and more as the bandwagon turns against O. It baffles me that he doesn't turn on Galzria, who is NOT a fellow mafia.

If Galzria were the Mafia Godfather, would he flip town when killed?

[Robz888]

Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead.  In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill.  The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.

Regarding O's defense of Joth.  It does seem strange.  I could see one of two possibilities: 1) they're scumbuddies, 2) Joth is town and O wanted rep if we mislynched him, or a townie on his side (Joth) if we didn't.  I'm tending toward the latter.

PEdit: looks like some of this was already stated.

NO WAY the mafia targets Galzria with me having explicitly stated I was going after him today and Robz having strongly implied it. He was lynch target #1. Lots of chaos and noise, very good for the mafia. If Galz was the scum target, I'll eat my hat.

This.

[Robz888]

It makes Axxle2 suspicious even for uttering it.

[Robz888]

Okay, I've been through O's whole history. It's tough to read, actually. He goes after a lot of people, but it's tough to tell when his votes are serious. Meaning, it's tough to tell if he voted for his fellow mafia.

[Dsell]

I tend to suspect pops / jo / DSell / me... in that order - but I now after watching O flip mafia, I'm rethinking DSell as a lurker.

Pre post edit: 20 replies!!!!

Pre post edit: Can't suspect DSell on account of OMGUS.

What do you mean you're rethinking me as a lurker? I'm now not a lurker or I now am a lurker? Because I was on vacation for like a week...

Also, can someone explain how OMGUS relates? I know what it means but I'm not sure how it fits in context.

C_F, can you explain exactly why you were unwilling to lynch O? He was not at the top of my suspects list but he was suspicious enough to me that I would have absolutely voted for him if it was the difference between a lynch and a no-lynch. I got up at 6:40 am to make sure I had the chance... scumbag east coast mod

[jotheonah]

Agree or disagree?: The night's events should elevate Robz to obvtown. (Stopping the Grujah wagon, fingering O)

[Captain_Frisk]

Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.

I did make a list (was the last, or 2nd to last prior to Dsell?).  I had O squarely in the middle - because I viewed his playstyle as intentionally semi scummy... the type of thing he can play every game and be considered crazy enough to let live, but not scummy enough to lynch.  I'm not the only one who felt O was tough to read.

I didn't want to lynch because I felt like the decision to lynch him was time pressure based and potentially being steered by Scum - who were just picking a viable candidate after seeing everyone's votes.  If he flipped town - I wanted the maximum information from people who voted for him... and me being on there removed information for me.  If he flipped mafia - great!

Of course - I didn't consider that I'd be sitting in a pool of 4 people who look really scummy right now.

PPE - 7 more replies!

@Dsell - I think i've answered my no O vote.  As for lurking - you aren't now - that is true (although 20 replies came in while I was looking up the voting history).  It is true however, that you were an infrequent poster in past days.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

...Pops was voting on a confirmed innocent man (scummy)
J and DSell were voting on a confirmed innocent man, but together.

This feels like hindsight, as the confirmeds were not yet confirmed at the time.  Is this the standard way to sum up "this is what we know NOW" on the morning of a new day?  'Cause I've already wasted time on questioning some other specific phraseology that I seemed to read too much into, and I don't want to do it again. But this seems like it could be deflection, and Frisk IS under somewhat elevated suspicion today.

[Tables]

So if I've read correctly, Robz is reviewing O posts, Tables and Jo are reviewing general stuff, and Dsell is reviewing Frisk.

@Robz and Tables (who are my strongest town reads right now): I need some guidance. My gut tells me to go back and review Galz's posts.  Is this likely to yield actionable information?  Should I concentrate on something else?

Hmm... Galz, less so than rereading O, or people talking about Galz, I think. Concentrating on those is probably more helpful. The reasoning is that Galz knew no more than the rest of us, as a (generic) townie, BUT O did, knowing everyone who was not mafia, and also at least one other person talking about Galz also knew he wasn't mafia/SK (delete as appropriate), which is more than we knew then.

Man, this thread got active quick.

[Robz888]

I noticed this:

O (4): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria

So, all these people definitely not mafia, except Glooble. But yeah, Glooble supplies a crucial vote for O here, where O goes from possibly lynch to probably lynch. SO this reflects very well on Glooble. As does other stuff.

[Robz888]

The fifth O vote is Axxle2. Hmm. Does that acquit?

[Glooble]

I hate to be the guy who posts to say he's not going to post, but I my work schedule is kinda crazy, and I don't see myself being on much before tomorrow at 4. Just popping in to let you all know not to prod me.

[Dsell]

Let's remember that once O had six votes, there was not that much incentive for his partner(s) not to hammer. O wasn't gonna live, and a bus would be very helpful to clearing them. I think that's a weak reason to suspect someone.

This is really true. I think that we gain less information off of the actual composition of the O wagon than we do from the revelation that everything O said was misleading, everything Galz said was true, etc.

Jo, I think you're somewhat less scummy in my eyes now but I need to go back and reread more to be sure of that.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, can someone explain how OMGUS relates? I know what it means but I'm not sure how it fits in context.

I might be doing this wrong - but since you were pointing the FOS at me - me pointing it right back at you is OMGUS?  I didn't realize that you had already fingered me until I got my pre-post-edit.

[Robz888]

And the 6th and 7th are SFS and Grujah, townies. Except for Axxle, which is questionable, we probably have all townies voting for O. Which does make sense. Even so, this probably makes me look at Axxle2 as a less likely mafia. It was totally acceptable to vote Galzria instead.

Which is what Jo and Dsell did, and now of course it looks scummier.

[Robz888]

Also, O did not go after Pops quite as aggressively as a I had remembered. Hmm.

[jotheonah]

I'm inclined to think, a propos of nothing, that there was at least one busser on that wagon. Scum know better than to all be in one vote/didn't vote category. We should look at the Grujah wagon, too, could be instructive.

[jotheonah]

Also, O did not go after Pops quite as aggressively as a I had remembered. Hmm.

Otherway around though, I think pops took a number of shots at O.

[jotheonah]

At the very least, he pointed out the scumslip that arguably got the wagon rolling.

[Axxle]

Captain Frisk, Joth, popsofctown were on the Day 1 mislynch and not on the Day 2 lynch.  Unfortunately more people than I thought.

I'm don't think that both Joth and O would go the crazy mafia route.

PEdit: Even if we did lynch Galzria today, he'd still get a lot of information out, which I very much doubt the mafia want more of. I do see what you guys are saying though.

[Robz888]

I'm going for a run. Going to think about things. To summarize, here is where I stand:

Innocent beyond reasonable doubt: Robz888, Tables, SFS
Likely Innocent: Glooble
Medium: Popsofctown
Possible mafia: Dsell, Axxle2
Top suspects: Jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

I noticed this:

O (4): Tables, Robz888, Glooble, Galzria

So, all these people definitely not mafia, except Glooble. But yeah, Glooble supplies a crucial vote for O here, where O goes from possibly lynch to probably lynch. SO this reflects very well on Glooble. As does other stuff.

Agree or disagree?: The night's events should elevate Robz to obvtown. (Stopping the Grujah wagon, fingering O)

I don't know about the others, but I tend to have less suspicion of O voters than non O voters, but I'm not ready to go out and say that anyone is ObvTown, other than the dead.  Tables is unlikely, and I don't suspect RobZ. 

I tend to agree with RobZ - that Glooble would be the one who stands out to me, but I'd still prefer to start looking over at Pops, J, DSell and I.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

At the very least, he pointed out the scumslip that arguably got the wagon rolling.

Jo, did you record that post #?

[jotheonah]

At the very least, he pointed out the scumslip that arguably got the wagon rolling.

Jo, did you record that post #?

For you, SFS, I will hunt it down. One sec.

[Tables]

Why would Grujah be the mafia target? I'm pretty sure mafia would have targeted SFS or Tables, two super confirmed town players, instead.  In light of that I'm pretty sure Galzria was the mafia kill.  The thread was dead without him much of the time and a quiet town is a benefit to the mafia team.
...

The mafia probably was afraid of targetting us in case of doctor intervention. Alternatively, they were hoping for someone to start the WIFOM implication of 'why are they still alive?' although, I'd think that considering I was one of the main leaders in the O lynch AND have SFS's copclear, they'd have not expected that to work. One final theory I just though of is... what if the mafia IS only two people, O and someone less skilled? With O dead, the less skilled player is less sure of who to shoot, and shoots someone somewhat more randomly. But I don't really believe that theory myself. If Galz was the mafia kill, though, who shot Grujah, and why?

Hmm... remember I spent a reasonable amount of time yesterday positing the (not likely but possible) suggestion that SFS's actions were the result of a mafia teammate suggestion? This feels like a possible avenue for O to have taken, now we know he was one of the scum team. Not saying I think SFS is scum, but as always, I really think that we should tread somewhat lightly.

[jotheonah]

There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis.

Bullcrap. I made the point that survivalist tell isn't scumtell.

What analysis have you made?

Also I've been in Hawaii for a week. Still posted a bunch but I really hate Ipads and won't post anything long on them.

Vote:Tables for lurking, then redirection for bad reasons.

I quoted the immediately preceding post (unless I get ninja'ed).
I demand stickers.

O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not.  For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.

Vote: O

It's a pretty ugly omgus too.

That's the post there.

[jotheonah]

#1926

[Captain_Frisk]

...Pops was voting on a confirmed innocent man (scummy)
J and DSell were voting on a confirmed innocent man, but together.

This feels like hindsight, as the confirmeds were not yet confirmed at the time.  Is this the standard way to sum up "this is what we know NOW" on the morning of a new day?  'Cause I've already wasted time on questioning some other specific phraseology that I seemed to read too much into, and I don't want to do it again. But this seems like it could be deflection, and Frisk IS under somewhat elevated suspicion today.

To be honest - I'm not sure - I was summarizing it for myself - pointing out the things that I noticed.  I agree that I look scummy as all hell.  The important thing in my mind is that Mafia actually know that they are voting for innocents when they vote.  I'm not saying that makes the 3 of them mafia - but it does make them more suspicious in my mind.  I would also tend to think that mafia would prefer to avoid visibly voting together in small groups, but this is WIFOM - I'm told that Galz + RobZ did it to great effect in M2.

[jotheonah]

Note that that's a long time before the O wagon, but it may have been in our heads later/believe it was referenced by O voters. What really got the O wagon rolling was his protesting too much about Robz's theory, which I believe I was the first to point out.

[Axxle]

Solo challenge: find a f.ds thread that would not be improved by yo momma jokes.

Vote: Yo Momma

[Axxle]

Have to go for a while.

Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.

Joth said he was willing to vote for O, and never actually did, just kept talking about how Galz lynch was better.  Sounds very hedgy and thus suspicious.

[Voltgloss]

If Galzria were the Mafia Godfather, would he flip town when killed?

No.  A Mafia Chancellor {Godfather} flips Mafia when killed.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Let's remember that once O had six votes, there was not that much incentive for his partner(s) not to hammer. O wasn't gonna live, and a bus would be very helpful to clearing them. I think that's a weak reason to suspect someone.

Jo - is this some sort of disguised semi-accusation at me?  Cause I hammered O.

[Robz888]

Check out this vote total. This is the top of the anti-Jo bandwagon, and right after this count, Jo votes for himself, getting to L-1.

Vote Count 2-13

Galzria (1): popsofctown
O (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, Galzria
popsofctown (2): jotheonah, Glooble
Glooble (1): O

Not voting {2}: Grujah, Captain_Frisk

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

How would people interpret this, with respect to my main suspects, Jo, Frisk, and to some extent Dsell and Glooble? If Jo is mafia, no way Dsell or Axxle are, and vice versa.

Also, this is part of the reason why my theory developed in the first place: that Jo couldn't get to 6 votes (without voting for himself), but Grujah did. So this leads me to thinking Jo is mafia, and fellow mafia were unwilling to get on the wagon, which didn't apply to the Grujah or Axxl1 bandwagons.

[jotheonah]

Have to go for a while.

Will vote O if need be before deadline, prefer Galzria. So excited about new information tomorrow.

Joth said he was willing to vote for O, and never actually did, just kept talking about how Galz lynch was better.  Sounds very hedgy and thus suspicious.

I said it yesterday, I'll say it again. I was watching the thread like a hawk, and I would have hammered if no one else had. We hadn't heard from O himself in some time, and I wanted to leave maximum opportunity for townie last words if townie he was.

Now I really do have to go for a while.

[popsofctown]

D2 I pointed out that O's scumslip made him the scummiest person in the thread (though I later scaled it back to be roughly a tie with Galzria).  No one was listening to me, so later when a consensus lynch on Grujah was mentioned I voted for it.  When the Grujah wagon took lots of rapid momentum, including O's scumtacular "I need to wagon sometime" vote, Grujah got less popular and I realized lynching either O or Galzria was a goal that could be realized.  I made a post saying I'd look back in the thread and see which between O and Galzria had the best relationship with Grujah such that if the lynch flipped scum, Grujah would be totally cleared.  Since O was a shameless, lazy bandwagon and Galzria expressed lots of misgivings and was not quiet about his participation, I saw that O was preferable.  Then I declared O is a preferable cantidate for that reason.  At least, I think I did.  I also thought I voted him, but when I checked to see if I should correct the mod's end of day votecount, I discovered that I never actually voted O.  I spent the rest of the day campaigning for O lynch, ignorant of where my vote actually was, rallying the populace with instantly classic slogans like "O lynch is go lynch".

If you look at my behavior in any sort of sincere manner you'll get an interpretation consistent with this.  It's not fair to say I'm beyond reproach, but if I'm going to be mislynched it better be for bussing O, not protecting him.

Axxle2's position on the wagon is not very clear.  Given how much the townies in this town must disagree on everything with all of our failed wagons, it seems like O lynch would not have happened without at least one bus, especially since one of the townies supporting it didn't even have his vote where his mouth was.  It's gambler's fallacy to say Axxle2 is scum because he voted O, but nothing about O lynch makes me feel better about the slot, and in my/Galzria quoting me/'s words, "Axxle2 is one of the scummiest players itt"

[Robz888]

@Pops, well, but Axxle2 is the 5th vote for O. Would a mafia supply this crucial 5th vote to a fellow mafia? It was probably the vote that brought O from good odds of lynching to certainty of lynching.

I haven't found Axxle2's actions particularly scummy myself. I'm not at all ruling him out, and I guess I have him sort of high suspicion compared to many people, but it's a little tough for me to imagine getting on a fellow mafia bandwagon right at the sweet spot.

[Robz888]

And for what it's worth, Pops, you are pretty much cleared to me, at this point.

[popsofctown]

bleh.  It's WIFOM.  So much WIFOM.  I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells.  And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free

[Robz888]

bleh.  It's WIFOM.  So much WIFOM.  I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells.  And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free

Well, I like to analyze voting and accusation patterns.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

bleh.  It's WIFOM.  So much WIFOM.  I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells.  And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free

It's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free

[Axxle]

bleh.  It's WIFOM.  So much WIFOM.  I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells.  And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free

It's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free

You'll get money and you'll like it!

... wait...

[Captain_Frisk]

bleh.  It's WIFOM.  So much WIFOM.  I feel so much comfortable with individual scumtells.  And scum that scumslip and give you money fo' free

It's actually money for nothin and yo chicks fo free

My wife always thought it was checks for free. Like the singers a had good banking accounts.

[popsofctown]

i want chicks

[Tables]

That's enough quoting Dire Straits.

[Captain_Frisk]

Solo challenge: find a f.ds thread that would not be improved by yo momma jokes.

Vote: Yo Momma

Challenge failed - this thread would be improved with yo momma jokes.  And emoticons.

[Captain_Frisk]

what's scummy about Frisk's position on the chart is that Frisk was in no danger of being lynched so it doesn't cost him anything to say Frisk is scummy and try to get points if he turns up vigged.

I'm not sure what this is in reference to - what chart?

[Dsell]

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

Scummy<----Glooble----Pops-Frisk----------Galzria----------------------------Jo---->Not Scummy

I don't like how you removed Pops from the question directed at me.
Not sure about what Glooble's unvote means on this chart.

@C_F
This "chart." Or continuum. Or something.

[Axxle]

How have CF and O interacted outside of that "chart"? I'm willing to bet they avoided each other.  Checking now.

[Axxle]

Vote: Captain Frisk for being O's scumbuddy.  I went as far back as #530 (I figured most before that would be just good ol' random O), and he's only really talked about CF in groups of others, one weak vote, and this:

I'm actually more curious about O's lack of mentioning this than suspicion on Theorel himself.  What do you think about Theorel at the moment O?

Erm... I think he's a dead townie.

And CF, I'm not giving SFS a FOS for dogmatically following you. I'm giving him a FOBTS (finger of bad townie suspicion). SFS is obvtown (for now at least, there are no obvtowns in lylo except for confirmed towns by a role claimed cop with 1 mafia left, or similar If-he's-lying-then-he's-the-only-mafia situations).

I find Pops change in vote/behavior interesting, as well as Axxles inane question (gee.. really.. I wonder what *everybody* thinks of a dead townie..)

Yes, yet again I'm defending Dsell, Sir Captain Frisk. This strongheadedness (which Dsell highlighted) really really bothers me.

In the interest of seeing where this goes:

This feels like the 5th or 6th time I've seen this (it might only be the second, but its certainly at least the second).

There's nothing inherently wrong with the statement as long as you also recognize that voting makes the statement "I am happy with player _X_ getting lynched tonight".

Which smacks of coaching.  (The context of the second is very confusing, I don't see why O mentions CF from his previous posts)

Before that he comments on CF's and SFS's buddy/buddyness (#885). He even comments later that he thinks it's this comment that caused the falling out (#1011). Sounds like scumhunting, but since we know O is mafia it now looks like he was creating a pair that he might have been able to use to lynch SFS if things went south with CF.

[popsofctown]

but he called sfs obvtown.  That makes it kinda hard to flip around on him.

[Axxle]

but he called sfs obvtown.  That makes it kinda hard to flip around on him.

#885 and #1367 were separated by almost a week.  SFS wasn't really obvtown anyway until is role reveal.

[popsofctown]

Look, if you were in the game during that time, you would have known SFS was obvtown.  Unfortunately, you weren't Axxle2.  You didn't replace in until day 2.

Don't show up late to our mafia game and tell us how to play

[Axxle]

Look, if you were in the game during that time, you would have known SFS was obvtown.  Unfortunately, you weren't Axxle2.  You didn't replace in until day 2.

Don't show up late to our mafia game and tell us how to play

Bahahaha.

Maybe he was, I honestly can't remember.



On a completely frivolous note:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=stats

weeeeee are the champiooonnssss

Total Posts:    55705
Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 3 START!)       2340

~ 4.2% of all posts on F.DS.  We crazy.

New goal:
WanderingWinder       2776

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Starting this after 2337.

TL;DR version:  I went back and looked at all O's posts that took a position on another player, beginning at 372, and ending when the ball began rolling on the O bandwagon.  The pattern I see most clearly (and I dont think it is confirmation bias) is O defending Jo (see red highlights).  He mentions a lot of folks, including me a fair bit, but when it comes down to actually taking positions, he's defending/deflecting from Jo.

Here's the long version (my thoughts are in trailing parentheses).  My apologies for referring to myself as SFS, but I think it will reduce the potential for confusion long-term:

#372 - Votes Pops for being "Galzria-Confident on steroids" (this was immediately after Pops told everyone to lay off SFS)
763 - "doesn't believe J is mafia"
829 - mildly suspicious of Frisk for indirect accusations
885 - states that Frisk and SFS agree on a lot of things
899 - wants to be reminded of case against Axxle1
906 - admits to defending Dsell
917 - reminds us that we can lynch Pops, because he (O) doesn't like the "old-do-nothing-and-people-will-eventually-forget-I've-acted-crazy-scummy strategy" (two posts later Jo chimes in with "I dont either but you cant argue with the results")
923 - says there doesnt seem to be a case against Axxle1
932 - finds Axxle1's discussion of Mafia theory to be "townish"
944 - says that "barring idiotic actions, won't hammer Axxle1
971 - mentions strawman case against Axxle1, reminds us his vote is still on Pops
978 - says "Theorel is covering himself and deflecting suspicions elsewhere"
982 - votes for Theorel
1192 - says Pops, Frisk and SFS still annoy him
1245 - Links SFS to Frisk again (this is not the first time, though I failed to make note of the previous post number(s), and I am too tired to go back)
1247 - Explains staying off bandwagons because Pops, SFS, and Theorel were "acting incredibly scummily"
1252 - (addressing Jo specifically, and archly): "I'm mafia because I saw past your slightly odd play - Just ask Pops"
1257 - I cant analyze this post very well, but he's taking issue with Galzria' post in 1256, which references MII and Jo's play, and it reads to me as a defense of/deflection for Jo.  I'd like for someone to parse this one to see if my read is right, that he's defending Jo.
1260 - This is a Jo post, where Jo notes "how advanced and difficult it is to play like O" and over the next few posts there ensues a lovefest between Jo and O.
1278 - "Dammit J, you make it hard to defend you" (possible humor?)
1347 - Votes for Frisk, says he's already FOS'd Frisk several times
1367 - says SFS is obvTown, but gives SFS an FOBTS
1384 - says SFS would be worst town of all time under the specific condition of Glooble AND SFS being town.  Goes further, saying Glooble's play would have been damn terrible if he is town, just not as terrible as SFS's
1449 - Found Galz suspicious until Axxle, Pops, and CF voted for him (Galz), so Galz is less suspicious now
1484 - in responding to SFS's vote on him, says explaining himself (for what SFS noted) would "nearly certainly not be good for the town". (I read this as avoidance at the time, but asked for hypothetical situations where he could legitimately take this position)
1486 - reaffirms SFS's "towniness"
1731 - votes GLooble, says the choice is between Gloob and Pops
1742 - says Pops is dangerous if Mafia
1812 - says "Jo is scumhunting as much as any of us IMO"
1853 - says "If Jo is mafia, he would have been bussed by now"
1878 - says "Jo is obvTown"
1885 - says "SFS and Jo are helpless townie reads.

For these and all the other reasons I've already expressed on Day 2:

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

[Axxle]

Thanks SFS, that should help a lot.

[Axxle]

Look, if you were in the game during that time, you would have known SFS was obvtown.  Unfortunately, you weren't Axxle2.  You didn't replace in until day 2.

Don't show up late to our mafia game and tell us how to play

According to SFS's summary, O was painting SFS in a scummy light at least through post 1247

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@Pops - I've been wanting to ask for 3+ weeks: In post 371, when discussing my posts and my alignment, you say "not sure which (interpretation) I favor".  One minute and 38 seconds later, you've made up your mind, saying (in 372) "it's town. Lay off him.  Let's move onward".

What happened in those 98 seconds that lent you such forceful clarity?  No accusation, just curious.

[Captain_Frisk]

+1 SFS - that was extremely helpful. 

I was about to say 1878 looks strange to me, but the wagon on O didn't start until 2000 or so, so he still thought he was in the clear suspicionwise.
 The only problem I have is that it seems odd for multiple mafias to adopt "crazy" as a play style.  Of course, I want to lynch pops and j, so what do I know?

[Tables]

Hmm, SFS, I like that list, but there's one big thing that jumps out at me: O's mentions of Joth are in big groups, while Frisk gets continual small mentions throughout. It would seem to me that the Frisk conversations are more genuine considering that, as you're more likely to have your scumbuddy in mind continually, and the person you want to buddy up to, you can talk about/to at discreet periods when the oppertunity arises.

This isn't to say I'm convined either way. But I'm tired now and can't think straight so, eh.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Hmm, SFS, I like that list, but there's one big thing that jumps out at me: O's mentions of Joth are in big groups, while Frisk gets continual small mentions throughout. It would seem to me that the Frisk conversations are more genuine considering that, as you're more likely to have your scumbuddy in mind continually, and the person you want to buddy up to, you can talk about/to at discreet periods when the oppertunity arises.

This isn't to say I'm convined either way. But I'm tired now and can't think straight so, eh.

I'm tired too, and am going to bed, but mentioning Frisk/voting for him is very different from defending Jo, IMO.  I probably should have added an editorial comment behind my summary of 1347.  Although O says he FOS'd Frisk, I didn't find those (by that, I meaning not only did I not find a true FOS phrasing, I read his frequent invocation of Frisk as just, well, mentioning him). Non-committal words like "annoy" etc.  Does this mean that Frisk is off the hook in my book? No, because something about him smells just a bit.  Can't quite put my finger on it.

Frisk is kind of like Pops for me.  They both say things that make me go, yep, that's town, but then every once and a while, something hits me wrong.

[Robz888]

Pops is town, because O is mafia. We don't have to worry about Pops.

But yeah, this summary makes it pretty clear we gotta go Jo or Frisk. On one hand, I do think O was quite aggressive in his defense of Jo, whereas Frisk was someone he kept saying non-substantive negative things about, but not doing much else there, and certainly nothing that would motivate an actual Frisk vote. So the Frisk situation I think is more scummy from O's perspective.

However, I still think if Jo was not mafia, O would have tried to find a way onto his bandwagon. The fact that O didn't was sort of the genesis of my theory, in which Jo would have to be mafia. So it's a toss up for me.

[Axxle]

I will lol if they both are mafia.

[Robz888]

I will lol if they both are mafia.

They very well may be. Remember how incredulously furious O was when I said all the mafia were among those people?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-1

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {7}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Dsell]

An idea struck me, and it may be a bit out there but hear me out with this one.

I believe that Galzria was killed by a SK who was trying to hit mafia.

If this is the case, it can really help us figure out who the SK is. Jo and I were the only who were voting for Galz, which suggests it could be one of us (it's not me ) OR someone who agreed with our arguments against Galz but was voting for someone else instead. I never actually got a chance to post the long version of my suspicions against him, but there was plenty of other suspicion to make a SK think he was mafia, especially since an O-Galz mafia pairing didn't look impossible.

So the people who expressed suspicion of Galz/agreed with jo or myself (help me supplement this list if need be...90 pages) include Robz, and to some extent, Axxle2, Glooble, and C_F. I think that there is a legitimate chance that one of these people who thought there was a chance that Galz was mafia is the Serial Killer.

Take all this as you will, but this makes a lot of sense to me. So I think we need to really keep in mind the idea that me, Jo, and Robz could be SK, with some suspicion also on Axxle2, Glooble, and C_F.

The major flaw to this idea is that all of the above could apply if it were a vig kill. I imagine both SK and vig want to hit mafia night 2. However, I think a vig kill is highly unlikely because we know for sure that we had 1 woodcutter, which suggests to me that we most likely do not have a full vig. If that's the case we either have a SK or different woodcutters used their 1-shots on the first two nights. That strikes me as unlikely because 1-shot vig is something that seems much more useful towards the endgame when the chances of hitting mafia are much stronger.

I also get that SK-hunting is not ideal and that, frankly, the mafia wants the SK gone probably as much as the town does. I plan to scumhunt as well but this jumped out at me and I thought I should share the idea. At the very least I think the logic is sound.

[jotheonah]

Back finally. Sort of skimmed all those pages.

@SFS, yes I find O's play hilarious and whimsical and worthy of emulation, in a general sense. I know most of you don't feel that way. Yes, O buddied up to me a lot. Honestly, I feel like that should clear me. We're both crazy, but we're both smart enough to know that double-crazy is not a winning mafia strategy. Double crazy + obvbuddying even less so. I mean, that's like epic bad play.

@Dsell. I've literally been waiting for someone to suggest I'm SK. That's a scenario where my play this game would make a lot of sense in a high-risk high-reward sort of way.  I'm not, of course. I am, as I have always claimed to be, town. I'm actually extremely worried how little idea we have who the SK is, because he could be literally any of us, and even if we successfully eliminate the scum, we're still going to have to find that needle in that haystack to win the game. So, thank you for SK hunting a little, even if it is apparently a scumtell.

If I had to vote for mafia right now, it would either be CF or Axxle. Axxle is woefully inconsistent with his FoSsing, and he doesn't broadcast that inconsistency. Like he doesn't say "I'm coming around on X." or "I know I said Y was town but now I'm not so sure."  It's just "X seems safe" in one post and then "X is scum" in the next. I noticed it cause he was doing that a lot to me, but I have a feeling his iso will show he does that a lot in general.  He strikes me as highly opportunistic.

I don't see his O vote, even it's timing as #5, as clearing him. O was highly bussable for any mafia who wanted to live.

Also, just noticing, pops posted an uncharacteristically long defense of himself despite a relatively small amount of suspicion. This continues to be one of the only tells I really trust.

[Robz888]

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

[Robz888]

Additionally, would the Serial Killer want to kill Galzria? It was pretty clear that the town was going to seriously consider lynching him today. I think the SK would want to kill somebody whose pretty much acquitted, and leave the town to deal with Galz.

[Dsell]

Additionally, would the Serial Killer want to kill Galzria? It was pretty clear that the town was going to seriously consider lynching him today. I think the SK would want to kill somebody whose pretty much acquitted, and leave the town to deal with Galz.

This is a much stronger argument than your previous post...

I'm not sure that I agree that Grujah "obviously" used his kill on either of them. Yes, it would make some sense, but that forces us to assume that there's another 1-shot vig who used their shot on the other night OR that someone was jailed/protected. Those are of course possible but they don't strike me as highly likely, certainly not as likely as a SK and a woodcutter who wanted to save his kill for when he was more sure.

Your argument for why a SK wouldn't kill Galz applies just as much to a vig kill...why not go for someone who's been more quietly scummy?

I've never been a vig or serial killer (I wouldn't post this if I was this game...) so I don't know exactly what the mindset is but it seems far more strategic to me to use the 1-shot later rather than sooner, when you have a stronger read and a better chance of hitting even at random. To me it seems worth the risk of getting NK'd.

OTOH, jo pointed out that Grujah sort of softclaimed, so maybe he was worried that he would be killed for that.

Like I said, it certainly could be wrong, but I do think some of the reasons you initially gave refuting it are a bit weak.

[Axxle]

Grujah was such a lurker it would not surprise me if he forgot to use his power

[Robz888]

Uh, people with a power generally use it, like immediately. I think a more experienced player might wait. I doubt Grujah would wait. I REALLY doubt he would wait 2 whole night periods.

Though, looking over the roles again... yeah I could be wrong. I was sort of misremembering the potential roles. There is NO Mafia Rolecop, FYI, as I just suggested there could be.

We could have a Vig and a 1-shot vig and one of them got roleblocked. Or I suppose yes, there is a Serial Killer, and they got roleblocked, that's a possibility. But I have trouble imagining anyone who isn't town-aligned deciding to kill Galzria.

[Robz888]

We have 9 people left alive. Probably, 6 of them are aligned with the town. We have already lost 5 townies. That's 11 total townies. Of them, we have a Village Idiot, a One-Shot Vig, and if we believe SFS he is a One-Shot Cop. That's 3 weak-ish roles out of 11 townies. Assumingly, we must have more. I could imagine, let's see, maybe just 1 more role if it's a strong one? Maybe a Doctor?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

emphasis mine
I'd like to learn from my mistakes, so I have to ask: If you have the power to kill [as opposed to the power to investigate ], and use it as soon as possible, is that good or bad play?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@Axxle2 - I just went back and read your post 2338 more carefully, and I think you may be on to something regarding O's trying to paint me with the "he's tight with Frisk" brush if Frisk "went south" as you put it.

In the first O post you quoted, there is a passage where O says "SFS is obvTown" then disclaims a bit in a parenthetical, mentioning lylo.  If I understand lylo correctly, we are still a long way from it. Why would O bring up lylo in this context? Does that give us any additional information?

@Dsell - You were going to go back and concentrate on Frisk.  Anything to report yet?

[jotheonah]

I regret saying Robz was obvtown.

When I was SK in MIII, Robz's post above is exactly what I would have posted if people suddenly started looking for the SK.  Passing the SK off as a series of Vigs, trying to end the hunt before it began. It's more or less the same response he gave when Galz accused him of being SK yesterday: "There is no SK. There are only vigs."

Speaking from experience, I can only say that's exactly what the SK would say.

And, separated from the weight you're inclined to attach to Robz's words because he's Robz, he's so wrong. Vig kills are NOT the most likely explanation for double kills two nights in a row, when the only Vig we know of is a one-shot.  It's definitely the less likely explanation.

So that just leaves the question of why Robz-SK would kill Galzria rather than campaign for his lynch.  But, wait, we know the answer. Galz is the only person in the game to have previously fingered Robz as SK (even though his announcement of that as a gambit took us more or less off the trail). Again speaking from my own experience, as the only person who has played the SK role on this forum, it's quite terrifying to feel like someone is onto you, and it's quite tempting to use your night power to get them out of the picture. Particularly if that also gives you a go-to "I would never target X" excuse in the morning.

I'm sitting pretty confident that Robz888 is a witch. I suggest we burn him, or go back to scum hunting and hope the mafia target him tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

J has already given you grief for this, but this post of full of problems.

You people are forgetting one thing: there is no Serial Killer. At least, it strikes me as pretty unlikely at this point.

We had 2 people die Night 1, and 2 people die Night 2. We can explain 3 of those 4 kills: a mafia kill each night, and Grujah's 1-shot vig kill. I'm assuming Grujah shot Galzria, which makes plenty of sense, or he shot Theorel Day 1, which also would make at least some sense.

So, there's one kill we can't explain. The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night. There are ways to explain this, yes: The Serial Killer was roleblocked one of these nights; the Serial Killer killed both nights and Grujah did not use his vig shot at all; the Serial Killer did kill and the mafia were roleblocked; etc. While these scenarios are possible, what I find most likely is that we simply do not have a Serial Killer.

Separately, I am sure Grujah used his kill on either Theorel or Galzria. Theorel was an Axxle1 voter who had distorted some facts in an argument with Dsell and was all sorts of scummy. Galzria was the next most likely mafia, after O. I would guess that Grujah killed on Night 1, as people with the power to kill usually use it as soon as possible. But I sincerely doubt he wouldn't have used it either night.

It's also possible a Mafia Rolecop discovered that Grujah was a One-Shot Vig on Night 1, and decided to take him out, not knowing whether he had used his power or not.

At the very least - we are 1 unexplained night kill short.  (Grujah kills theorel or Galzria)

The statement "The problem is, if we had a Serial Killer, there should be 2 kills we can't explain: one each night" - makes no sense. 
Here are some very plausible ways in which we could have 4 night kills (instead of the 5 that you insist we should have)

We have 2 one shot vigs - or we have a vig who only shot once.
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - who killed both theorel and Galz - and Grujah didn't use his shot.
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - and Grujah used his shot, and one target / killer was randomly doctored / jailed
We have a vig (who shot twice) / serial killer - and Grujah used his shot, and Grujah's shot was on the same target as the mafia night kill or serial killer kill.

I tend to think that as a one shot vig - I would save my power for when I was damn confident.

I'm sitting pretty confident that Robz888 is a witch. I suggest we burn him, or go back to scum hunting and hope the mafia target him tonight.

This strikes me as a bold claim - not quite as ridiculous as when Galz made it however many thousands of posts ago, but hard to be truly confident on.

[jotheonah]

CF, you must believe that my confidence stems only from the fact that I know of what I speak.  I played as SK. That post has SK trying to get us off the trail written ALL OVER it. And like you pointed out, it sports glaring logical inconsistencies that seem highly out of character for Robz. A slip is a slip, and like pops said, slips are like free money.

Plus, I like to think that if nothing else my rather unique position has afforded me the virtue of being honest and straightforward with my reads, rather than trying to couch them.

[popsofctown]

SK hunting is stupid until you've at least reduced the mafia to one person.  I've played SK only once.  D3 one of the more experienced players on the forum pointed out that my play seemed very consistent with SK behavior.  I had shot 1 scum so far.  They used their lynch on me instead of mafia.  Scum won. 

It doesn't make sense to go for an SK early because the SK tends to shoot for scum.  We're still sufficiently behind that that's how the SK is going to shoot. 


If you want Robz to be your number one SK pick, that's fine, but wait until later.  There may not even be an SK, the most likely explanation for the death pattern is 2 one-shot vigs, and I don't know why people think having two of the same role isn't allowed or something. 

in other news,
The WIFOM in the relational scumhunting is driving me crazy.  It's not my forte.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Pops - while you are being driven crazy by the relational stuff, can you take a moment and answer my question in #2346?

[popsofctown]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

[jotheonah]

SK hunting is stupid until you've at least reduced the mafia to one person.  I've played SK only once.  D3 one of the more experienced players on the forum pointed out that my play seemed very consistent with SK behavior.  I had shot 1 scum so far.  They used their lynch on me instead of mafia.  Scum won. 

It doesn't make sense to go for an SK early because the SK tends to shoot for scum.  We're still sufficiently behind that that's how the SK is going to shoot. 


If you want Robz to be your number one SK pick, that's fine, but wait until later.  There may not even be an SK, the most likely explanation for the death pattern is 2 one-shot vigs, and I don't know why people think having two of the same role isn't allowed or something. 

in other news,
The WIFOM in the relational scumhunting is driving me crazy.  It's not my forte.

Two 1-shot vigs who used their powers the first and second nights respectively on highly dubious targets? In what universe is that the most likely explanation. Anyway, there's very little incentive for the other shooter not to go ahead and claim. They're withholding potentially helpful information: namely which kill was the scum kill either night 1 or night 2.

I'll agree with you in general about SK hunting, which is why that post didn't come with a vote. But I'd rather lynch an SK I'm sure about than a mafia I'm unconvinced about.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

I suppose that's fair, it's certainly clever.  Let me change the question.  Were you really undecided in 371?

[popsofctown]

yes

[Axxle]

We lynched SK in MIII, and almost lost.  Pops speaks true for now.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unless you can establsih why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

I find this to be very frustrating - keeping information away from the rest of us makes it harder to read you - which makes everyone's reads more confusing.  It does none of us any good to just say "oh - well this must be fact because pops says so".

[popsofctown]

I'm pretty sure SFS happens to realize I'm town already, so that's moot. 

[Robz888]

Okay, we have Insomniac, Theorel, Galzria, and Grujah killed in the night. Unless there is some serious blocking going on--which is quite possible, but let's set it aside for now--there are 2 mafia kills. It absolutely makes sense to me that the mafia would kill Insomniac and Grujah. Insomniac was not an Axxle voter and wouldn't have been a natural Day 2 lynch target. Grujah was going to be largely cleared because of O's flip. The mafia want to kill people we presume to be innocent.

The other 2 make more sense to me as Vig kills than SK kills. Theorel was pretty scummy and had come off badly in some Day 1 arguments. Galzria was absolutely the right kill--he was dripping scum.

Perhaps I was too confident in saying there is no Serial Killer. But the pattern of kills suggest to me a Vig, and because we already know one of the was indeed, in all likelihood, due to a Vig... I still say that's the most reasonable explanation.

If there is a SK, I would have to conclude the SK is trying to kill like a Vigilante, and Grujah didn't use his kill at all. That could be.

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

[Axxle]

The SK isn't trying to kill as a Vig.  The SK is trying to kill as an SK.  The SK wants to hit Mafia inherently.

[popsofctown]

derp

[jotheonah]

Since you all might lynch me today, I didn't think it was very pro-town to hold back on pointing out the strongest tell I've seen all game.  I trust you all to look back on it when the time for witchhunting begins (in your opinions) if I'm not around to take it up myself.

Honestly, color me unconvinced on the whole "We shouldn't be looking for a serial killer thing." A lot of big assumptions being made, including:
(A) The SK should be hunting mafia at night
(B) The SK, in fact, is hunting mafia at night
(C) The SK is going to magically be successful at hunting mafia, despite having failed to do so two nights already.

Meanwhile, if we do have an SK, we have two scum factions manipulating the town for their own purposes and we continue to lose 2 town a night.  Lynching mafia today will not stop us from losing two town in the night. Lynching SK will.  So don't tell me it's unarguably better to be hunting for the mafia. I don't buy it. If someone's antitown and has NK powers, I want them dead. I'm not fussing about the semantics.

[Captain_Frisk]

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

The discussion is a distraction that you started with what I considered to bad reasoning - so I called it out.

However - agreed with everyone that we should be hunting mafia - not SK - at least until at least 1 more mafia goes down.  We do have confirmed mafia in the game (there is at least 1 remaining), and we don't even know if there is SK.

-- back on target --

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

[popsofctown]

  Lynching mafia today will not stop us from losing two town a townie and a mafia in the night. Lynching SK will. 

ftfy

In seriousness, you're not thinking clearly, and are only fixating on the worst case scenario.  At the worst, whether SK hits town or scum at night is random.  Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.  That's what a lynch really is, it's a random death somewhat improved by the power of scumhunting, but never based on any strong, truly solid information.  Town's lynch only a little bit better than random chances but still win about half the games they play.
The lynch is a kill that hits mafia or town.  The SK kill is a kill that hits mafia or town.  The mafia kill is a kill that only hits town, because they know who their partners are.  That is what's more important to eliminate. 

I promise myself to give up on explaining this after this because some things just refuse to be conveyed.

[Robz888]

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

Uh, it's Jo or Frisk. Maybe Dsell. Not Pops. He went after O too hard.

[Dsell]

Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.

Wut?

[Robz888]

Because there are more townies than scums, random deaths happen to help the town.

Wut?

Doesn't matter. Forget about that.

Dsell, while your here: Please rank the following people from scummy to not: Pops, Jo, Frisk, Axxle, Glooble. Thank you.

[Captain_Frisk]

Uh, it's Jo or Frisk. Maybe Dsell. Not Pops. He went after O too hard.

But didn't vote for him.

[Robz888]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

[Dsell]

@SFS I did go back and look into C_F but quickly ran into that SK idea and ran with it for a while. That said, it's just an idea and there's no way to know for sure yet that we have a SK and there's no way to know for sure yet who that SK would be. And I agree that lynching mafia is much more important than lynching SK at this point. I just wanted to get the idea out there, see how people would react, and I think it's fine to put it on the shelf somewhat for now.

Two things that have stuck out to me, looking back:

C_F has been on the wrong end of the Axxle1, Grujah, and O bandwagons. He hopped off Grujah quick when he was near being lynched, which is probably to his credit, but this is still good information. It seems like it's either "duh we should probably kill him now" or he is being a little obvious if he's mafia. I don't understand his major stubbornness with not hammering O, seems like a mafioso would have nothing to lose by doing that. Then again, doesn't the mafia want to do the things that seem least likely for the mafia to do? WIFOM.

Has anyone else noticed how jo is a COMPLETELY different person D3? A much more helpful person and one who is a bit lower on my suspicions list, but...he's had a complete playstyle overhaul and it's weirding me out.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.

Jo - Bad SK logic, double bad voting
Pops - Double bad voting - intentionally unhelpful
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
Glooble - Dislike his auto wagon voting approach, but have a really hard time believing that twinclaim was a mafia gambit.
Me

If I couldn't read my own role PM - i'd put myself up with Jo and Pops.

[Robz888]

Jo, will you do so as well?

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, will you also fulfill the request I made to Dsell?

I will - and I'll even give you reasons - even if that helps people get townreads / avoid scumreads from me in the future.

Jo - Bad SK logic, double bad voting
Pops - Double bad voting - intentionally unhelpful
DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)
Glooble - Dislike his auto wagon voting approach, but have a really hard time believing that twinclaim was a mafia gambit.
Me

If I couldn't read my own role PM - i'd put myself up with Jo and Pops.

Oh - missed Axxle - probably in the DSell / Glooble range.  Slightly above where I'd put you.

[Dsell]

@Robz, I'll make it but I'm not putting a lot of stock until I can go back and read through D2 some more with the added knowledge of Grujah, O, and Galz. My paradigm really shifted when Galz flipped town.

Most suspicious to least: C_F, Jo, Gloob, Axxle, Pops.


Jo and Gloob are close and maybe should be swapped, but for different reasons.

Jo's been playing a scummy game this whole time but now he's a new man...and it's weird.

When I was reading through D2 after coming back from vacation, there was one point where I was just so sure that Glooble was mafia, he seemed super scummy, but then by the end of the reading he was seeming more town again. Now that Galz is confirmed town I'm not sure where that puts him exactly.

And Axxle is also kind of a wildcard because I haven't gotten a scummy read from him but it seems like he's done some weird things and he's in the middle of EVERYBODY'S list. (PPE: including C_F's)

So, wow, this is a super primitive list. I just really need to reread D2 more to get my head together. Which is also why I don't feel like I can rush into a C_F vote yet (although if I had to place one that's where it would be).

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

[Robz888]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

I want to see Jo's first. Then yes.

[Robz888]

Axxle, i would like to see your list too, if you are around.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

He didn't make one.  He's also anchoring (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) the discussion by choosing who's on the list.  He could have just as easily said "rank everyone" - and then looked at the 4 or 5 he's interested in. 

To be fair - the people he's kept off the list make sense:
DSell - the original question was directed @ DSell - his ranking is implied.
RobZ - RobZ knows his own alignment - doesn't care whether or not DSell thinks he's scummy
Tables & SFS - if you don't know why they are down here you need to read old posts.

[jotheonah]

@Dsell I'm much more helpful in smaller towns. Also, the O lynch ... I finally feel like I'm standing on some kind of solid ground.

@Robz The assignment is ... list everybody I suspect and why?

[Robz888]

Robz, did I miss yours? Could you post one as well?

He didn't make one.  He's also anchoring (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) the discussion by choosing who's on the list.  He could have just as easily said "rank everyone" - and then looked at the 4 or 5 he's interested in. 

To be fair - the people he's kept off the list make sense:
DSell - the original question was directed @ DSell - his ranking is implied.
RobZ - RobZ knows his own alignment - doesn't care whether or not DSell thinks he's scummy
Tables & SFS - if you don't know why they are down here you need to read old posts.

Uh, I want Dsell's list. i asked for it. I would ask Glooble and Pops, too. But I don't think Glooble is around right now, and I don't think I am likely to get an answer from Pops. I don't need lists from Tables or SFS, no.

[Dsell]

DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)

You've said this soooo many times now so I'll say this once more. I WAS ON VACATION FOR MOST OF DAY 2. NOT LURKING, ON VACATION.

I realize that this can lead to there not being that much info on me but there's not much I can do. I've been really active when I've been here and I've contributed a lot, particularly day 1 and now 3.

[Robz888]

@Dsell I'm much more helpful in smaller towns. Also, the O lynch ... I finally feel like I'm standing on some kind of solid ground.

@Robz The assignment is ... list everybody I suspect and why?

You can leave off SFS and Tables, and me. Or include me if you really want. Doesn't matter, I'll discount that either way. Don't need to be long explanations.

[Captain_Frisk]

DSell - Not enough info for a read - as we're getting later in the game - this makes me suspicious in a way that can't be argued for (similar to O)

You've said this soooo many times now so I'll say this once more. I WAS ON VACATION FOR MOST OF DAY 2. NOT LURKING, ON VACATION.

I realize that this can lead to there not being that much info on me but there's not much I can do. I've been really active when I've been here and I've contributed a lot, particularly day 1 and now 3.

Hey man - I didn't put you over Pops and Jo - all I'm saying is that I don't have a read on you.  I didn't even accuse you of lurking in this post.

[Dsell]

Hey man - I didn't put you over Pops and Jo - all I'm saying is that I don't have a read on you.  I didn't even accuse you of lurking in this post.

But you and a few others have accused me of lurking in SO MANY other posts and it's annoying now.

[jotheonah]

Mmk

Scummy
CF - Need to look more closely at. Stayed off my radar til late yesterday when he started to look a little scummy. He started the actual wagon on Grujah. Almost scum by default, however, as there's really only two people I suspect of being scum right now.
Axxle - Axxle2 is lousy with scummy behavior, but none of it egregious enough to get him noticed. I think he's very likely mafia. His vote for O was a bus.

Slightly scummy/ differently scummy
pops - not by any means cleared in my book. But he did go after O pretty hard. Like, harder than a bus hard. I'm willing to believe that our disagreement about SK hunting is a townie disagreement, but he's still wrong
Robz - Robz's play makes no sense as mafia. It makes plenty of sense as SK, but that's another thing.
jotheonah - I'm town. Double crazy would be a crazy strategy for the mafia. Also O's buddying of me was way too over the top and obvious. Even if I weren't me I wouldn't suspect me now.

Not scummy
Glooble - mostly town read. eager to hear from him on Day 3.
Dsell - town read. But actually mostly no read. Need to look more closely at him.

Highly not scummy
SFS/Tables - there's this tiny chance that SFS's bold role claim and clearing of Tables was a ballzy as hell mafia gambit and they're the other two mobsters. If this is the case, they will absolutely deserve it when they win.

I miss anybody?

[Axxle]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

Scummy:
Robz - likely the SK. 

Slight scum:
Glooble - mostly gut.  will have to reread.
jotheonah - wrong side of the lynch both times.  general random behavior. 

Unknown:
Dsell - I will have to go back and reread.  I always seem to have trouble with this guy.

Slight town:
popsofctown - I doubt his interaction with O were two mafia bussing each other

Anti-scum:
Tables
SwitchedFromStarcraft
Axxle2


After writing this I realize I need to go back and reread some of the player's positions on things.  I will have an updated list at some point, although I can't guarantee a time.

[Robz888]

Okay, great. No one else needs to do this, by the way. I was only actually interested in Frisk, Jo, Dsell, and Axxle's responses. I'm convinced everybody else is non-mafia, though somebody could be SK, I guess.

Based on their responses, I will have some thoughts later.

[popsofctown]

But I don't think Glooble is around right now, and I don't think I am likely to get an answer from Pops. I don't need lists from Tables or SFS, no.

i lolled

[Captain_Frisk]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

To be clear - I am scummy not because of my own actions - but those of another player?

[Dsell]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

To be clear - I am scummy not because of my own actions - but those of another player?

I don't know about Axxle but going back and rereading, I see a lot of IIoA from you, C_F. O threw down a second vote on you, but I don't know what to make of O's interactions.

Also after rereading some, I will say that because I have epically failed at reading O and pops this game, their interaction does not *fully* clear pops for me.

[popsofctown]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

To be clear - I am scummy not because of my own actions - but those of another player?

vote: Captain Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

vote: Captain Frisk

I guess we know who's at the top of your list.

[Dsell]

vote: Captain Frisk

I guess we know who's at the top of your list.

Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him?

[Glooble]

Ok, I just caught up. I'll try to post some thoughts within the hour. Sorry my RL schedule this week is terrible timing.

For now I'll just say the one thing that's sticking out at me: pops, I don't buy that you forgot you weren't voting for O. I would actually buy that from most players, but it doesn't fit with my conception of you as a player at all.

I also can't buy pops as scum, though, because driving the bus on your own teammate when there were easy town targets out there (jo, Galz) makes no damn sense, but something in pops post #2324 gave me a very bad read. This normally tight-lipped player going into an overly verbose post to defend himself when no one is even strongly suspecting him?

If pops is Mafia, his bus of O was an extremely risky gambit. But it would be one that worked - we're all considering him cleared, despite suspicion falling on him days 1 and 2.

Ugh. Evidence suggests pops is town, but I still think its worth it to look back at his earlier behavior, especially with the knowledge that Galz is town. The way they were going at each other earlier day 2 still doesn't sit right with me.

[Dsell]

driving the bus on your own teammate when there were easy town targets out there (jo, Galz) makes no damn sense,

Uhhh jo may have been an easier target but I'm far from convinced he was an "easy town target."

[Captain_Frisk]

Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him?

Pops just doesn't want to give away his thinking (#2324) , or he doesn't want us picking apart bad reads.  His post shortly after Day 3 opening was surprisingly lucid - which is one of the reasons I dropped him to #2 on my list. 

There is absolutely no way that the town people among (Pops / J / Captain_Frisk) couldn't possibly heavily suspect the others.  I'm sure that in 2400 posts we've all said something scummy - my comment is that while everyone is criticizing my relationship with O, I haven't seen anything that really convinced me that I could be scum - other than the fact that I've mis-voted once, and declined to vote for O.

[jotheonah]

And I don't know what to make of your refusal to hammer me when I was at L1 with a self-vote even when you said you would do so on principle. Instead you pleaded with me to unvote. Explain that action, please.

[popsofctown]

vote: Captain Frisk

I guess we know who's at the top of your list.

Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him?

I put the reason for my vote right before my vote.

It's like talking to a wall with you people.

[Dsell]

while everyone is criticizing my relationship with O, I haven't seen anything that really convinced me that I could be scum - other than the fact that I've mis-voted once, and declined to vote for O.

...which is kindasortabasically two-misvotes. But I didn't vote for O either. However you were also on the Grujah (confirmed townie) wagon, although you did get off of it, which is something.

The thing that most bothers me is that you stated that you would be willing to lynch O D2, but when push came to shove, you refused to hammer him even if it meant a no-lynch. Also, like I mentioned before, IIoA. In addition, I pointed out early D2 that you were in a really interesting spot on the Axxle wagon, where you went for the lynch even though you made your vote look like scumhunting. That can all be found in #1296 on page 53.

[jotheonah]

vote: Captain Frisk

I guess we know who's at the top of your list.

Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him?

I put the reason for my vote right before my vote.

It's like talking to a wall with you people.

You mean the two-word post three posts before your vote where you quoted someone else entirely in a quote that didn't mention CF at all? You're right we ARE all dumb for not figuring that out.

[jotheonah]

Oh wait, you meant the quote in your vote post.  Yeah, that is a good point.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

vote: Captain Frisk

I guess we know who's at the top of your list.

Do we, though? Pops, you haven't listed C_F among your strong suspects or given a reason for your vote. You just agree with the arguments for him?

I put the reason for my vote right before my vote.

It's like talking to a wall with you people.

Except the people you dodge questions from perhaps? Is that more like talking to school children?

@ Robz - Can you give me a brief (or long if you prefer) explanation as to why you are so sure Pops is Town?  Also, do you believe him when he says he really was undecided on me in post 371?

@ Jo - You appear to be adept at changing gears during a game, so this one is for you.  What's your take Pops' change from 371 to 372?

[jotheonah]

You mean from 370 to 371? It's just pops being pops. Confidence in your reads, not a scum tell. Not wanting to explain your reads, also not a scumtell. We need to be looking for times when pops acts like not-pops. Like that longish post Gloob and I pointed out.

[Glooble]

So I tried to look back at the day one O/pops interaction with the information that O is scum. It was surprisingly unhelpful. He places a vote on page 15, when a lot of people are suspecting pops for his general playstyle and specifically for clearing SFS with no explanation given at the time. The pops wagon evaporates, lots of votes move towards jo and eventually Axxle1, but O just stay on pops the whole day. This keeps O's hands clean, which is probably why he did it. But I can see O doing this whether pops is town or scum, because pops is never really in serious danger of being lynched. It becomes a big WIFOM situation, because of course O knows that if he flips scum we're gonna look at his day one voting behavior, so what better than to park your vote on your partner. It's like free town points.

If we're asking the pops question, I also think someone should take a close look at his interactions with Galz, now that Galz is confirmed town.

Ok, This is going nowhere. I think I'm gonna lay off pops for a bit. My gut feeling today has him being scummy, but I'm just not finding rationale for that analysis.

I need to look back at CF. I can't remember his D1/beginning of D2 behavior at all, and all I stumbled upon while looking back over the pops wagon was jo saying he looked suspicious for contentless posting, and I feel like jo's said that about almost everyone at some point.

I am suspicious of everyone who could have hammered O but didn't. I sort of buy jo's explanation that he was trying to give O every opportunity to claim. I don't buy that pops "forgot" he wasn't voting for O, though I guess stranger things have happened. My reads on DSell and CF have been mostly town, but that may just be because I've never taken the time to analyze them. I don't completely understand while everyone is coming down so hard on CF right now. Let's tread carefully.

Sorry this post has been so stream-of-conscientiousness. I'm working on limited time and limited sleep, but I thought I should give my thoughts. Tomorrow is my day off, so hopefully I can contribute more productively.

[Robz888]

@SFS: I'll give you 3 quick reasons Pops is town, and then I'm probably not going to say much more about it.

1). His relationship with O: In light of the fact that O is mafia, he and Pops were too adversarial toward each other for Pops to be a fellow scum. In ran in both directions, throughout both rounds. A wagon can catch against anybody. The back-and-forth accusing and even some voting for each other suggests to me that it is unlikely they are both mafia.

2). Pops has engendered criticism and accusations from too many people for him to be mafia. In other words, other people whom I suspect are mafia, who have to be mafia, have gone after Pops.

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

Taken together, I will rule him out as mafia for now. I could be wrong, sure. But there are at least 4 other more promising leads. So unless someone has a good reason for him to be mafia that outweighs the 3 counterbalancing factors I just gave, I'm not going to consider him.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant.  Sort of.)

[jotheonah]

Gloob, as I said earlier. Imagine you're O's scumbuddy. O is at 6 votes. It's two hours to deadline.  You have two choices:

1.) Don't hammer.  Pro: You have a slight chance that by some chance no town player will both be online and have the inclination, and your partner might miraculously survive one more night. Con: If someone does hammer, you look very scummy the next day, because you could have hammered but didn't.

2.) Hammer. Pro: You look really good. You have a nice retort to any accusations against you. Con: You killed your partner, who was almost certainly going to die anyway.

The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.

[jotheonah]

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]

[popsofctown]

Jo wtf dude.  surely there's something in the rules about copy-pasting from the QT.

[popsofctown]

Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant.  Sort of.)

I've already posted my analysis of that post and why it gave me a townread, and I did so day 1. 

During those 56 seconds or whatever it was, I reread your post and realized the correct interpretation.  I'm a fast reader I guess.  I can read a paragraph in a few seconds.  It's amazing.  You'd think there'd be competitions for this.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]

But like you said in 919, "you can't argue with results".

[jotheonah]

3). His playstyle does not suggest mafia to me. He was too irritating, and indeed, it got him into some trouble. We have killed irritants for less. I can't see him deciding to play that way as mafia.

[sarcasm] The mafia team is me, pops, and O. Our master plan was to all three play crazy, irritate everyone, and get ourselves lynched ASAP. We're really good at this game. [/sacrasm]

But like you said in 919, "you can't argue with results".

You've either got a memory like a steel trap or ... or I don't even know, that was impressive.

Yeah, though. The question you have to ask yourself is not just "is it working?" but "did we have any reason to suspect or even hope that it would work?"

I for one am expecting O's accomplices to be a good deal subtler than him in playstyle.

[Captain_Frisk]

Let's tread carefully.

Deadline is next Tuesday - It's not super soon - but we managed to come down to the wire on Day 2 - and that was with an extra week on account of DSell V/La. 

I'm finding the pile on me very interesting, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet.  I should be suspicious - but I don't understand why I am more suspicious than J or Pops.  Pops getting off the hook for attacking O strikes me as odd when he didn't vote for him.  J getting off the hook for being J is also interesting.

My voting history looks scummy - and I can't yet decide if Pops' vote is just a bad read - or if he's pushing for it because he knows that I'm a juicy target who isn't actually scum.  I tend to think that the remaining Mafia members won't push super hard to lynch me - because they know they are in deep [saboteur] when I flip. 

RobZ - are you planning on posting your suspicions at any point? 

@DSell - I had O in my "maybe willing to lynch" bucket during the list creation - not quite the "willing to lynch" you are trying to pin on me.  When the "case" was put together - I didn't see anything that looked out of place for O behavior (this is the same dude who (as town) - gave a suspected serial killer a perfect excuse to 50/50 shot at shooting him or me).  It felt to me like we were just randomly picking someone who looked reasonably scummy that we could lynch without any real reason. 

Props to Tables - no matter what happens today - I look forward to the after-discussion on how on earth that worked.

[Captain_Frisk]

The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.

J - please don't put me in the same sentence with you.  I see you either trying to get me in trouble when you flip Mafia - or clear yourself when I flip town. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unless you can establish why you need to know, I won't answer.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what needs to be faked to earn townreads from me.

1) I need to know because I'm a player in this game.
2) I need to know because the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question turned out to be mafia.
3) I need to know because I allowed the only other player who took this approach to dodging my question to successfully dodge my questions.  I see no reason to broadcast to scum what approach needs to be taken to escape my examination.
4) I need to know because early on I made a big deal about holding everyone accountable for what they write, and that's what I'm doing here.
5) I need to know because to fail to hold you accountable would make me feel like a owaitIcantusethatwordorPopsmightwannavoteforme (but it sort of rhymes re-suplicant.  Sort of.)

I've already posted my analysis of that post and why it gave me a townread, and I did so day 1. 

During those 56 seconds or whatever it was, I reread your post and realized the correct interpretation.  I'm a fast reader I guess.  I can read a paragraph in a few seconds.  It's amazing.  You'd think there'd be competitions for this.

Excellent non-answer, especially given the lack of antecedents.  Please, kind sir, give me post #'s for the red "posted", the purple "that post" and the maroon "your post" you reference. (Hopefully, they are all the same post, and I've not troubled you unduly.)

There should be competitions for correctly evaluating the worth of the time wasted for two players when questions remain unanswered versus the potential advantage gained by mafia from some small insight into the thinking of a player already acknowledged as inscrutable.  In such competitions, extra credit should be given when the latter variable is properly weighted for a) the fact that some players might change their style from game to game and b) the potential gain in credibility for a scum/mafia  player by expressing reluctance to enlighten scum/mafia players.

[Dsell]

@DSell - I had O in my "maybe willing to lynch" bucket during the list creation - not quite the "willing to lynch" you are trying to pin on me.

This is true, didn't mean to misrepresent. Your first two categories of "Want to lynch" and "Maybe willing to lynch" don't seem to have much in-between. But whatever, that's semantics. And my original point that you appeared to say one thing but do another is still valid, although as jo pointed out, there was plenty of incentive for mafia to hammer. Huh.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-2

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

The scum choice is to hammer the sucker. We're talking about the textbook busing situation. And saying that CF and I are scum because we were hanging around not hammering is just silly.

J - please don't put me in the same sentence with you.  I see you either trying to get me in trouble when you flip Mafia - or clear yourself when I flip town.

Sorry. Saying that I'm scum for not hammering is silly. Saying that CF is sum for not hammering is perfectly acceptable. That better?

[Robz888]

Okay, I have been looking back over everything quite extensively.

My first big discovery is not so much a discovery as something I simply remembered: Frisk isn't a mafia member. Why? Here's why:

Vote Count 2-3

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O

Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

O was the second person to get on the Frisk wagon here. Granted, this is early in the round. Still, I can't see a mafia getting on a wagon against their fellow mafia and being the second vote here, with no other leading contenders for lynch. That is a risk they don't need to take.

This leaves Jo, Dsell, and Axxle2, in my suspicions.

The important thing here is that Jo and Dsell absolutely cannot both be mafia. Dsell voted for Jo more consistently than any other person did, which is quite a feat, being that I voted for Jo all the time. Also, Jo and Axxle2 probably can't both be mafia, because Axxle2 kept his vote on Jo all day round 1--back when he was Green Opal. Mind you, Jo very well could have been the lynch on Day 1. So Jo cannot be mafia along with either of these people.

O and Jo could both be mafia. And O could be mafia with Dsell or Axxle2, or both together. But Jo and Dsell cannot be mafia, and Jo and Axxle2/Opal cannot be mafia. Because O is mafia, Frisk is not.

Which means that if I still think Jo is mafia, I must look at Pops or Glooble. (SFS had a key vote parked on Jo Day 1, so he's out, and also for his claim, which I believe). There is a vote that casts some doubt on Pops/Jo (that's vote 2-13), and also I think O/Pops is not likely. And then of course the Jo/Glooble thing has the twin claim problem.

So I end up setting aside Jo. Which leaves me with Dsell and Axxle.

Interestingly enough, Dsell, Axxle2, and O never voted for each other at any point in the game, with one exception--Axxle2 was the 5th vote to kill O on Day 2. (I'm 95% sure of that, at least. Hopefully one of them can correct me if I'm wrong. I went through the whole thing and I'm pretty sure.)

On Day 1, Dsell and Axxle2 voted for the same person (Jo.) O voted for thoerel. None voted for the actual kill Axxle. Which is a great move, if you can pull it off. They very well might have. On Day 2, Dsell voted Jo, O voted Galzria, and Axxle2 was the 5th vote on O. I am willing to say that O was PROBABLY going to be killed by the time Axxle2 placed that vote. Though I admit this is the biggest wrench in the theory.

The evidence makes me more confident of Dsell, however, than Axxle2.

I must admit it is only recently that I began to even consider Dsell. He was not an Axxle1 voter. Also--and this is important--I thought he was a Vigilante, off a hunch. It seemed to me he would have killed theorel, because they argued. But now I'm not sure we have anymore Vigs.

To reiterate: Despite having more suspicion of Jo individually, Dsell seems the more likely mafia when I start looking to ferret out 2 more mafia members.

This overturns some of my earlier theories, but hey, I'm looking at new evidence. And I've been doing pretty well so far. Thoughts?

[Tables]

Okay, read everything that's happened day 3, and it's pretty interesting (when is it not). It more or less seems the only two constants are SFS and I are almost certainly town.

Looking over this day's notes, a few people jump out at me:

Frisk - lots of reasons have been given for him. Being on the wrong place of three wagons, O's treatment of him, and... I think that's it. But Joth's points make a lot of sense to me. Frisk had every reason to hammer and didn't, if he was scum, and as town had little reason to not hammer. O was fairly far down on his list, and waiting for a claim would certainly be sensible. I also don't want to place too much trust in what O did the first two days, as he could easily have been trying to set someone up. That's not to say it's useless to look at, but, I'd prefer evidence from elsewhere.

Joth - his play has been much better today, and he's made some good points (e.g. the above). I also feel some of the arguments he's made today - regarding Axxle and Robz, are believable. However this sudden shift in behavior, especially after O got lynched for somewhat crazy, is slightly jarring. He was also rolefishing for a Vig earlier (2370), which is a black mark.

Robz - the insistence there isn't a SK, when honestly, none of the best explanations we can posit are expecially good, strikes me as far too overconfident. In addition, after discussion started about Robz being a potential SK, which of course was bad for Robz, he immediately tried to change the subject. This came after he tried to quash discussion about their being a SK in the first place anyway, and both of these feel somewhat scummy. He's also, to some degree, been trying to control the discussion today. I feel like, until I started looking seriously at his posts today he was very likely town, but now, I'm much less certain. Could someone (not Robz himself) give me some good reasons for him being town, so I can weigh up what I know about him?

Pops: Despite my suspicion on Robz from the above, I do agree that Pops is very likely town. On the other hand, I also agree with Glooble's analysis regarding him, mainly that the post 2324 seemed overly defensive when he wasn't under fire. On the other hand, he barely defended himself when he WAS under fire, so I have no idea what to make of this.

SFS, Axxle, DSell and Glooble haven't struck out at me in a way I want to highlight (yet). For SFS, he's still likely town. Axxle and DSell I have my eye on, Glooble I also have my eye on, but less.

[Tables]

Robz, just two things to be careful of. Firstly, we may well only have two mafia members, so their might only be one more partner, not two. Secondly, you jump to very strong conclusions (stating things as impossible) based on information provided to us by the mafia (indirectly, but still). Even excluding that, you seem to overlook potential WIFOM plays which I fully expect O would be happy to perform, making 'obviously' bad plays for his teammates in order to clear them and the like. In short, I think you've laid out a good case for probabilities, but not certainties, and stating them that way makes me less comfortable with the arguments.

[Robz888]

Ah, Tables! Looks like I beat you to the big explanatory post by like a minute. Please read and respond to me. I'm close to voting for Dsell, for the reasons I give.

I much, much, much, much prefer voting and accusation pattern analysis then "so and so makes scummy arguments, blah." But anyway, I deeply regret quashing all the SK talk. You're right it's not nearly as implausible as I first thought. And I understand why it has reflected poorly on me.

Still, it's just not something I care about right now, and at several points in the game, people have acted like the SK is more important than finding mafia, when we don't even know that there is an SK.

When you say I feel scummy, though, I assume you mean you think I am SK. Which I understand. I hope you see that I can't really be a member of the mafia. I derailed the previous day's lynch of an innocent, Grujah, and called for the deaths of O and Galzria, which led us to kill O, who was mafia.

Anyway, thoughts on Dsell and what I said about who could be with who?

[Robz888]

Robz, just two things to be careful of. Firstly, we may well only have two mafia members, so their might only be one more partner, not two. Secondly, you jump to very strong conclusions (stating things as impossible) based on information provided to us by the mafia (indirectly, but still). Even excluding that, you seem to overlook potential WIFOM plays which I fully expect O would be happy to perform, making 'obviously' bad plays for his teammates in order to clear them and the like. In short, I think you've laid out a good case for probabilities, but not certainties, and stating them that way makes me less comfortable with the arguments.

Okay, then mentally change in your head every time I say "this" to "probably this." It's still very possible you and SFS are mafia. But I'm not seriously considering it, because I have better evidence in other places.

We can't have only 2 mafia for 15 people. Even 2 and an SK in 15 doesn't seem like much to me. Gotta be 3, I think.

I can see them voting for each other, but not at crucial-ish junctures, unless they have to. No way Opal/Axxle2 or Dsell join a bandwagon against fellow mafia Jo that was likely to kill him on Day 1.

[Dsell]

@Robz, I believe that I've only voted for 2 people (Jo and Galz) total in these three days, so I don't think it's fair to say that I'm suspicious based on having never voted for X and Y. Furthermore, I feel that O was buddying up to me somewhat day 1. He defended me on at least two occasions and was extremely suspicious of and voted for Theorel, who misrepresented me though I thought he was town. At the time I thought O was being rather more helpful than in previous mafias, but obviously he was looking to gain town points.

Robz, I also think it's dangerous that you're clearing C_F simply because O voted for him at one point. This was O's third mafia game, and I think that we can't necessarily trust the standard "scum" and "town" play. That's not to say that we can't analyze what people do, of course, but remember that the mafia WANT to do things that we would not expect mafia to do. ESPECIALLY when that mafia is O.

[Robz888]

Dsell, yeah, that's true. Fair points. I just don't see O laying a vote on Frisk at that time when we are just getting started on Day 2, and looking for bandwagons.

[Dsell]

Dsell, yeah, that's true. Fair points. I just don't see O laying a vote on Frisk at that time when we are just getting started on Day 2, and looking for bandwagons.

I'm not sure that I do either but I wouldn't put it past O. And while this is probably a point for C_F, there are also quite a few strikes against him. I don't know if he's the best choice for the lynch today but I don't feel super comfortable with him around, either. The problem I'm finding is that the more I go back and look at things the scummier people are looking to me.

[Robz888]

I don't think you are doing anything specifically to make yourself scummy, Dsell. But by process of elimination I am sort of closing in on you.

[Dsell]

I don't know what to say except that while your PoE is admirable (because I do not think you are mafia), it's wrong.

But of course this is what mafia would say too. Seriously though, re-examine some of your steps, asking yourself how the mafia would want to make those situations look, because your logic is shaky. You have to take into consideration the mafia giving themselves insurance.

[jotheonah]

Thinking Robz is SK doesn't necessarily make me distrust his scumhunting.

But if he's correctly identified the team, and he's been fingered, that's bad for his wincon.

Currently, IF there's an SK, the town consists of: 2 mafia, 1 SK, 6 town. We lynch mafia tonight. SK and mafia both kill town. Tomorrow we're at 1 mafia, 1 SK, 4 town. We lynch the other mafia, SK kills somebody. 1 SK, 3 town. We kill the SK. For an SK win, he needs us to mislynch at least once more, pretty much.

So, basically, if my earlier analysis is right and Robz is SK, it's in his best interest to lead us away from the mafia if he has identified them.

But I actually like his mafia analysis a lot and it rings "true Robz" to me.  So I either have to throw out my SK theory or distrust RObz's hunting.

Or, I could trust Robz's hunting and re-evaluate his SKness based on tomorrow's flip.  But I'd be more ready to vote Axxle (PoE + scumminess) then Dsell (PoE with no scumminess)

[Captain_Frisk]

Very Scummy:
Captain_Frisk - for how O's treated him throughout the game.

But of course this is what mafia would say too. Seriously though, re-examine some of your steps, asking yourself how the mafia would want to make those situations look, because your logic is shaky. You have to take into consideration the mafia giving themselves insurance.

I already tried that defense DSell - and it resulted in pops voting on me.

@Tables - I'll own up and admit that I was on the wrong place on 2 wagons (Axxle1, O - although if pops is mafia then I should get a rebate).  I'll even take a ding for my FoS @ Galzria - as I was highly suspicious of him.

I will not accept being on the wrong place on the Grujah wagon.  I did start it, but when I woke up the next morning and saw that the wagon looked pretty damn shady - I backed out.  As for that being scummy or not, its scummy to stay on and lynch innocent, its scummy to jump off and hope that the momentum carries it home... everything is scum.

However - look who immediately gave me grief:

Holy Probable Outcome, Batman! We almost killed the person I voted to kill! The horror!

Maybe I am overly sarcastic this morning, but this town is driving me up the wall. Let's lynch Grujah and get it over with. We can play the "which mafia are on that wagon?" game tomorrow.

I regret getting my hands dirty in the Galz-O debacle only because it's another freaking distraction for the most distractable town in the history of mafia and it's not a conversation that needs to be happening before we've seen a flip.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nothing in 3 hours? 

[jotheonah]

CF, we could start a little fight between us that would make us both look bad, if you want?

Personally, I think that starting a wagon, staying on it, and then being among the first to remove your vote after someone else (Robz) pretty much killed it does nothing for your credibility. That's a great move for someone who already knew Grujah was town. However, O (confirmed scum), Galzria (confirmed townie) and I all felt like Robz's "Stop now" post was suspicious - just as likely a mafia saving his partner as a townie trying to stop a mislynch.

I had my read and you had yours. You took your vote off, I tried to get people to put more on.  But neither of those things is de facto scummy. The fact that I was joined in my pursuit of Grujah by both a confirmed scum and a confirmed, respected townie proves it.

[Robz888]

@Jo, Your point about the Serial Killer does indeed make a lot of sense. And I know I've brought this suspicion on myself, so I can't fault you for thinking it at all.

I still think we probably have 2 more mafia, rather than a SK. But I have the luxury of knowing I'm not SK. If we do have SK, I have no idea who it is. It would mean that we either have a Roleblocker, or that Grujah never used his power. I really hope we have a Roleblocker, or something else. I suspect we might still have another power person out there. This could potentially help us.

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - just went back and re-read your missive - it was the first thing I read this morning (or maybe last thing from last night) and I was foggy and never went back to react to it.

I tend to agree with the analysis that I am not mafia - I in fact know it to be true.  I'm not sure it really clears me though - I've never been high on anyone's suspicions except O and Pops giving me grief - presumably for giving them grief about their irritating playstyles - and if the lynchwagon did take off - he could always drop off like I did off of Grujah - which even J suggests is scumread-neutral.

I also don't follow the internal logic - I still don't understand why Pops is free.  Bickering with O is one thing on his side earlier in the week... but once he joined the Grujah wagon - Pops didn't vote for O - he stayed behind on Grujah...

That play just seems odd to me. 

[Robz888]

Pops says he thought he voted for O, and reading over that section of the thread it did look to me like he thought that, if my memory is correct. They bickered too much.

Although maybe I should stop defending him, since he never defends himself.

[Robz888]

You know, if I am wrong about there being 3 mafia, my whole analysis is out the window. I was assuming 3 mafia even if there was a Serial Killer. DO we think there could only be 2 mafia? That does change my analysis. It knocks Jo back into contention, for one thing.

[Dsell]

You know, if I am wrong about there being 3 mafia, my whole analysis is out the window. I was assuming 3 mafia even if there was a Serial Killer. DO we think there could only be 2 mafia? That does change my analysis. It knocks Jo back into contention, for one thing.

I think it's really tough know, which is a frustration with the closed set-up. I think the only things we can rule out (and still not 100% ruled out) are 4 mafia+SK and 2 mafia+no SK.

[Captain_Frisk]

I tend to assume 3 mafia as well - given that we had more players than M3, and that game had a Mafia PR + 2 Goons + a SK.

@DSell - Agreed - 2 Mafia + No SK would be really brutal - unless the rest of town was full of vigs, which would be quite funny - but closer to bastard mod.

[Captain_Frisk]

I tend to assume 3 mafia as well - given that we had more players than M3, and that game had a Mafia PR + 2 Goons + a SK.

@DSell - Agreed - 2 Mafia + No SK would be really brutal - unless the rest of town was full of vigs, which would be quite funny - but closer to bastard mod.

Brutal for mafia that is.

[Voltgloss]

I think it's really tough know, which is a frustration with the closed set-up. I think the only things we can rule out (and still not 100% ruled out) are 4 mafia+SK and 2 mafia+no SK.

I mentioned this early in the thread, but as a reminder:  there was a maximum of 4 scum players at game start.  So you can 100% rule out "4 mafia + SK."

[Captain_Frisk]

Is this what happens to mafia games when Galzria isn't involved?

[jotheonah]

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

The discussion is a distraction that you started with what I considered to bad reasoning - so I called it out.

However - agreed with everyone that we should be hunting mafia - not SK - at least until at least 1 more mafia goes down.  We do have confirmed mafia in the game (there is at least 1 remaining), and we don't even know if there is SK.

-- back on target --

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

What are you referring to here? When did we go after Tables?

[Captain_Frisk]

What are you referring to here? When did we go after Tables?

Tables put together the chart - with all of our suspicions?

[jotheonah]

Got it, sorry. Brain fart.

[jotheonah]

Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria

Where do we reckon O puts his partners on this list? The bottom if he's thinking about the current round, the top if he's planning for a worst case scenario of him being lynched (unlikely since at this point there was no wagon on him)

CF had a convenient excuse for not making his list until everyone else had (We need a methodology guys!) When his list does emerge, it puts Me, Galz, and Pops on top - three people already high on the list (and therefore candidates for the consensus). Two of whom I know are town (One we all know) and pops, who I'm pretty sure is town based on interactions with O, but Frisk continues to suspect. He puts O right in the middle.

And then the O wagon starts. And then this happens:

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.

Wow. Desperate bid to save his V/LA partner much?

Yeah, Ok. That's enough for me. Vote: Captain Frisk

[jotheonah]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

[Captain_Frisk]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

I've been reading history - it looks like the best "zing" against O was that he had "forgotten" that SFS had cleared Tables.

What other parts of this case do you find compelling?

Note: you didn't vote for him either!

[jotheonah]

I am online - but I will not be hammering O.  I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here.  He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon? 

I'm removing myself because I know I'm not mafia.  That leaves me with Jo, Galz, Glooble, Pops. 

As I've stated before, I prefer J to Glooble, and Pops to Galz.  J for legit suspicions reasons, and Pops over Galz for personality - since I don't really have a strong read for one or the other.  I am willing to let the twinclaim thing ride for a bit, hence my vote for pops, but I lynch J or Galz if need be.

So the BIG difference between CF's not hammering and my not hammering is this. CF announced an intention not to hammer, even (one assumes) if that led to a no lynch. Whereas I announced an intention to hammer if need be. Big difference.

[jotheonah]

Also I invoke the spirit of the dead:

If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.

[jotheonah]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

I've been reading history - it looks like the best "zing" against O was that he had "forgotten" that SFS had cleared Tables.

What other parts of this case do you find compelling?

Note: you didn't vote for him either!

What got me was his weird vehemence against Robz's not-that-implausible group theory, actually. But I thought Galzria was the worse offender there. Ah well.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-3

Captain_Frisk (3): Axxle, popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Final note: I hate to be the one leading this charge, because it probably looks very "anybody but me" but I hope the quotes I've provided will convince you that this is evidence-based scumhunting. If it helps, imagine Tables said it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Final note: I hate to be the one leading this charge, because it probably looks very "anybody but me" but I hope the quotes I've provided will convince you that this is evidence-based scumhunting. If it helps, imagine Tables said it.

The finger of Galzria suspicion from beyond the grave is pretty tough to defend.  As soon as I saw that Galz was dead - I was shocked (because I suspected him to be mafia - mainly because I knew his read to be so wrong that it must be false vs. just mis-informed), then sad because I figured I was in for a rough day.

The other posts you quote - I'm perfectly fine with.  I was opposed to the O lynch for the very reasons I outlined.  I didn't (and still don't) like the idea of the pooled lists - which is why I resisted providing mine.  The fact that the list mania was started by pops - who then refused any commentary on it - made me doubly suspicious.  (Kudos to tables for running it home - either as town - or as the significantly less likely BEST BUS EVER)

The end result of the list?  You and O were tied... and Tables went after O.

The next two highest are Joth and O. Joth isn't a candidate of Pops (who gave a good reason for not wanting to lynch Joth (today) and Glooble (who is of course the twinclaim). O isn't a candidate of Galz or SFS, neither of whom have given good reasons for not putting him on (hardly surprising, as he hasn't been the focus of discussion for good chunks of two days...). This makes me somewhat uncomfortable - Galz isn't one of my scumreads and neither is SFS, so by my own logic this would likely make the mafia be trying to egg an O lynch on.

I felt that you were an equally viable candiate - one that we knew we could lynch (by virtue of you having nearly been lynched prior) - and I didn't understand why were were letting you off the hook - and all the sudden going after O.  Re-reading it STILL makes me angry:
1.  Because I still didn't agree with it - and pops refused to answer any questions about why we should be doing it
2.  Because it worked and thus I was clearly wrong.

Was anyone honestly truly confident on the O lynch?  I felt like if I was voting - it would have been "well - I have nothing better - so here it goes!".   That just feels scummy to me -> hence my unwillingness to lynch. 

[Robz888]

Hm, you make a compelling case, Jo.

This is tough. Now that I'm getting more worried that there are only 2 mafia in total (in other words, I'm not hunting for a pair), Frisk seems a lot more plausible. Then again, so do you. And if there are 2, I still think Dsell is the top contender. Maybe? Ugh.

[Captain_Frisk]

Time to shut down - will be lurking from phone / ipad this evening.   

@RobZ - I probably don't need to remind you that just about anyone can build a compelling case against J and his "anyone but me" craziness.  In fact - I could probably just go back and paste in your own case.

[Axxle]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

[Glooble]

Was anyone honestly truly confident on the O lynch?  I felt like if I was voting - it would have been "well - I have nothing better - so here it goes!".   That just feels scummy to me -> hence my unwillingness to lynch. 

I was pretty confident. I know everyone says I'll jump on any bandwagon, but I've been telling people O looks bad to me since day one.

Btw, trying to search your posts is made very frustrating by your participation in every ongoing Mafia or Bastard Mafia game. The visual similarity of IV to VI is going to get confusing fast when analyzing past posts.

[Dsell]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

[Captain_Frisk]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon.

--snip--

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

I agree with statement 1.

I disagree with 2.  My voting history is no more scummy than several other candidates (pops, Jonah have identical voting histories), and even the mighty galzria was wrong on axxle1, and dsell was with me on the o vote.

J's case is: Frisk didn't vote for O.  His quotes are me explaining why I wasn't.  Fine. 

If you lynch me - pay attention to everyone who feels the case against me is strong.  RobZ seems to have his head on his shoulders, even if I have a negative gut reaction to him steering the discussion.

[jotheonah]

There's a lot more in those quotes than Frisk "explaining why he wasn't voting for O."  He does everything he can to put the breaks on that wagon.

Earlier today I was saying "Scum wouldn't abstain from voting, scum would bus."  But when I was saying that I hadn't looked at the way Frisk had abstained and the fact that he seemed to be trying to get others to unvote or to switch the target to me. Actually rereading the O wagon, I find myself looking at a whole different ballgame than when I was just remembering it.

(I still think at least one scum was bussing though.)

[Dsell]

C_F, if you believed there was no case against O, why would you put him in your "maybe willing to lynch" category? This is what I continually fail to understand from you. I would not even maybe be willing to lynch someone if I thought there was no case there (ok MAYBE if we were up against a tight deadline...which we were). It looks like you put O in that category because you didn't want to be accused of defending him, even though you were TOTALLY unwilling to lynch him. That makes your list seem less-than-honest.

Furthermore, how could you NOT see a case against O? Or even less than a case, how could you not see his totally bizarre and scummy behavior under pressure? I thought his behavior was VERY scummy though I guess I agree that the case against him was not particularly strong. The thing for me was that Galz looked even MORE scummy, though obviously I was just misinterpreting things there. I still thought O was pretty dang scummy though and would have voted for him in a heartbeat over a no-lynch.

I said, regarding Galz, that if he flipped town, his scumhunting would be very valuable because it can be confirmed to be true. So I think that is not a bad place to start on Day 3.

[Captain_Frisk]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

[Dsell]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

I totally understand, and if you'd go back to the end of D2 and read, you'd see that I was hesitant to lynch based on playstyle too. But if you were unwilling to lynch him-even based on playstyle-I believe you should not put him in a "maybe willing to lynch" category.

[Captain_Frisk]

Have you played with O before?  Do you remember what he did to me day 1?  Imho o plays an intentionally shady game.  I view lynching him as effectively random, because he always looks scummy - and yet he plays that way even when town.    I had him in the maybe category because - its better than lynching tables / SFS, but I didn't see anything more scummy than usual o shenanigans.

I totally understand, and if you'd go back to the end of D2 and read, you'd see that I was hesitant to lynch based on playstyle too. But if you were unwilling to lynch him-even based on playstyle-I believe you should not put him in a "maybe willing to lynch" category.

All right - this is my last post because the ipad died and I'm supposed to be outside cooking chicken.  Will you please stop being wrong on the internet so I can eat dinner in peace? (http://xkcd.com/386/)

At the time I put the list together - I was maybe.  In the end - I decided not to.  That's in the well within the probable outcomes of "maybe".  I wasn't convinced - so I didn't vote.  This won't be the last time I was wrong.  That is the most honest answer I can give you.

[Tables]

I am online - but I will not be hammering O.  I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here.  He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon? 

...

Tables, did C_F make a list? I checked and I couldn't find where he said that, he seemed opposed to making one. It would certainly be suspicious if, like I think you're saying, he listed O as being a "willing to lynch" but then was unwilling to lynch.

I did make a list (was the last, or 2nd to last prior to Dsell?).  I had O squarely in the middle - because I viewed his playstyle as intentionally semi scummy... the type of thing he can play every game and be considered crazy enough to let live, but not scummy enough to lynch.  I'm not the only one who felt O was tough to read.

I didn't want to lynch because I felt like the decision to lynch him was time pressure based and potentially being steered by Scum - who were just picking a viable candidate after seeing everyone's votes.  If he flipped town - I wanted the maximum information from people who voted for him... and me being on there removed information for me.  If he flipped mafia - great!

Of course - I didn't consider that I'd be sitting in a pool of 4 people who look really scummy right now.

PPE - 7 more replies!

@Dsell - I think i've answered my no O vote.  As for lurking - you aren't now - that is true (although 20 replies came in while I was looking up the voting history).  It is true however, that you were an infrequent poster in past days.

(emphasis mine)

At risk of driving Frisk mad at me (especially if he's town), here's something that's bugging me. This is his explanation of not voting O before the lynch - a reasonable explanation, at least - and his reasoning afterwards as he comes under fire. I find this strange, especially the bolded part, as although Pops is the one who started list mania, I was the one who took it over, and nobody is suspicious of me now or were then. So this feels somewhat worrying to me. However, the more I think about it, the more I find this to be likely a townie arguing his case, and having to explain a simple point again and again in different ways. So I'm far from convinced by this, still.

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

If one of us joins this wagon, it's pretty likely it'll go straight through fairly quickly. I'd rather that not happen, and I'm not at a point where I'm happy to vote and say 'I would most like this person lynched'. We're onto day 3 now, so there's very little need to vote people as pressure, talking and evidence is more than enough. However... this slightly feels like a coax into getting one of us to vote prematurely. I can see why you'd want one of us to vote, but there's, what, two or three more scum out there? You could hit deadline with nothing but townies and potentially still not need one of us on the wagon. Even then, SFS was the hammer last time, and if a case looks convincing, it looks convincing and I'll probably join. For now, I'm not convinced.

[Dsell]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.

If one of us joins this wagon, it's pretty likely it'll go straight through fairly quickly. I'd rather that not happen, and I'm not at a point where I'm happy to vote and say 'I would most like this person lynched'. We're onto day 3 now, so there's very little need to vote people as pressure, talking and evidence is more than enough. However... this slightly feels like a coax into getting one of us to vote prematurely. I can see why you'd want one of us to vote, but there's, what, two or three more scum out there? You could hit deadline with nothing but townies and potentially still not need one of us on the wagon. Even then, SFS was the hammer last time, and if a case looks convincing, it looks convincing and I'll probably join. For now, I'm not convinced.

Where did I ever ask you to vote? Just the opposite, I wouldn't even consider it until you've posted more because you hadn't in a while and a fair amount had happened with Frisk. A single vote pushes him to L-1, and I am not interested in that yet, especially when there's still people we haven't heard much from. Indeed, I'm doing just what you suggested by trying to get information by asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies, rather than parking a vote there. Or were you talking about someone else besides me?

[Captain_Frisk]

So a quick look at the remaining contestants:

On my wagon currently: Axxle2, Pops, Jonah
- Axxle2 - I've been somewhat defensive of Axxle2 - given that I misylynched RL Axxle1 falsely for playing more or less the same... low post count - short posts - not helpful.  In his last 25 posts on the forum - he has 1 in here - which is a hedge that I look like I'm flailing, and that J looks too pushy.  When voting in the pops / tables "who would I lynch" game - he provided no commentary.  The only thing he has going for him is that he did vote for O.
- Pops - Pops has been AFK for 28 hours as of this posting.
- Jonah
Has voted for:
- Grujah (Day 1 Wagon - #699)
- Axxle (Day 1 anyone but me #848)
- RobZ (#1283 - for more action)
- Galzria (#1313 - OMGUS vote in response to Galz vote against him)
- RobZ  (#1386) - Sheeping Galz
- Galzria again: 1474 (claims pops or Galz is mafia - not an uncommon opinion @ the time)
- Pops #1670 - explicitly sheeping Galz
- Pops #1694 - had unvoted in the middle reasons unclear in post - we'll learn something he says
- HIMSELF #1793 - If I had a dominion time machine - I would use to Hammer him here,.
- Axxle2 #1817 - galz liked this one for voting his own reads vs. sheeping Galz.
- Grujah - #1973 - Jumping on the grujah wagon in slot #4.
- Galzria - #2165 - Claims Galz had bad logic.  I agreed with this post at the time.
- Frisk - #2461

Looking back at this I was hoping to find some major tell - but I don't see it.  Multiple attempts to lynch Grujah and Galz - but you'll find that on me too - and I'm town.  Rather than delete it - since it took time to go back and re-read some of this stuff - I figured I'd leave it in.  He never voted for O, and hasn't said much about Dsell that I can see, but that's not super incriminating.

Voting for Jonah:
SFS - Trustworthy town - even if I don't necessarily trust his reads.  His digging into Jonah was interesting.

Not Voting:
DSell - V/LA - Under the radar - apart him from thinking I'm suspicious - I don't really have any issue with him.  He has been consistently suspicious of me - this isn't a new thing - although he did have me low down on his list.
RobZ - Vocal - I think he's twice made bad "there is no SK" analysis - but hard to find fault with the man.
Glooble - Quiet - twinclaim
Tables - really doesn't post alot.  Saved our bacon with driving Pop's list through.  If he turns out to be scum @ the end - I will buy him a beer if I'm ever in the same city as him.
Captain_Frisk - oh - thats me.  Bad voting history.  Looks likely to be falsely lynched.

I'd really like to here more from Pops - where are you buddy?  His vote on me was barely justified - all I did was clarify Axxle2's justification for voting for me - which was he didn't like the way that O treated me.  I don't like that as a primary justification.  O's a good enough player to control who he says what about.

I am happy to see the more likely town folks not on my wagon - and my scum suspects sitting on me. 

My #1 suspect here at this point is pops.  First I hope he's ok and everything - but this seems like the perfect way to lynch me and get away with it - put a vote down - and then hope that someone else does the arguing for him.

When I flip - whoever pushed hard for it is going to look extra scummy - so I don't expect the mafia to push hard - which actually lowers J a little bit in my mind.

Has anyone compiled the RobZ lists?

[Tables]

[quotes]

Where did I ever ask you to vote? Just the opposite, I wouldn't even consider it until you've posted more because you hadn't in a while and a fair amount had happened with Frisk. A single vote pushes him to L-1, and I am not interested in that yet, especially when there's still people we haven't heard much from. Indeed, I'm doing just what you suggested by trying to get information by asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies, rather than parking a vote there. Or were you talking about someone else besides me?

Hm. In all likelihood, I was reading into an innocent statement something that meant nothing above face value. But reading that post felt like it could have been a subtle prod to try and speed things up, and get me to make a decision - especially as the current swing ofmuch of the town is towards Frisk, this felt like you were trying to egg me onto the wagon. But in retrospect, I don't think this theory holds much ground.

Carry on as you were.

Also:

...
Tables - really doesn't post alot.  Saved our bacon with driving Pop's list through.  If he turns out to be scum @ the end - I will buy him a beer if I'm ever in the same city as him....

[Insert one of claiming mafia now to get beer or asking the mod to change my alignment here]

On a more serious note though, I'm liking the analysis in that last post. I'd really like to hear from Glooble a bit more, actually. He's said a bit recently, but like me, he tends to be on only once or twice per day.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.

[Axxle]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

Please don't represent me as a non-voter when my vote has been on Jo since my wall-o'-text summary of O's posts.

*non-cf voters

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So a quick look at the remaining contestants:

--snip--
Voting for Jonah:
SFS - Trustworthy town - even if I don't necessarily trust his reads.  His digging into Jonah was interesting.

--snip--
I'd really like to here more from Pops - where are you buddy? 

--snip--

Emphasis mine
This is an interesting interpretation.  I made it very clear that I was digging into O, and found Jonah, benefiting from deflection/defense by (now-proven) mafia.

Pops is logged off cause he's scared of me.    MaybeheandIbefrenemies?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

There seems to be a lot of "I don't know, this is good, that is good, we're not at L-1 yet so I'm not interested, etc."

I take the following action for these reasons:
1) I agree with Robz on the notion that analyzing voting patterns is a good source of data.
2) I forgot that Jo will never be lynched (in fact, I'm about to vote with him, which is really, REALLY weird).
3) Frisk feels weirder and weirder by the post.
4) I want to see who jumps off (or on this wagon).

UNVOTE
VOTE: Frisk

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This I believe is L-1 (4 votes), in case anyone is unsure of my intention of knowledge of the game state.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

* or knowledge - fixed it

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-4

Captain_Frisk (4): Axxle, popsofctown, jotheonah, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

+1 for Volt being so ON IT.

[Dsell]

There must be something in the genetic code of the jo/glooble family that compels them to be on every. single. bandwagon. out there. But I digress.

SFS, I'm confused by your vote. By putting C_F at L-1, you are clearly saying that you are ok with him being lynched, as anyone could come along at any time and hammer. But you don't sound altogether convinced that he's mafia. Or did you just not repeat the whole case against him? Are you trying to prove a point about jo being mafia and apparently unlynchable?

I want to hear from pops. He is *still* one of our most experienced players and maybe he just likes to hold back until we're closer to the end-game, I don't know.

Analyzing this bandwagon on C_F has been exceedingly vexing and filled with WIFOM for me. First of all, we don't know how many mafia there are, so he may be the only one left, and the town has just found him out. If he's town, I could see the mafia having joined this bandwagon already (or piggybacking on Galz to "start" it today) or staying off altogether and letting the town blow up. If he's mafia and has partners, well it's getting to a stage where it's awfully risk/reward to bus their partners, but I tend to think they would. It's not impossible to me that they could even lead the charge against their partner to win major town points in the end game. So, to some extent, it feels like it's going to be hard to learn anything until we get actual information from the flip and night roles. There's just so many possibilities in the last paragraph and probably even more I haven't thought of.

We need to hear from Glooble. He has been mostly absent from day 3, in fact the only thing I actually remember him saying made red flags go up for me. He's been a little cleared through some of his actions but he's been a total lurker today, even if he has had a crazy schedule for part of the time. The twinclaim is really the most notable thing from him this whole game, and it impacted the town by buying more time for jo (not sure yet if that's a good or a bad thing) but his confidence on jo being town and then O being mafia irk me.

Obviously I'm not hammering C_F tonight. I think that is the likely/inevitable end to this day and I kind of expect it to be the right decision, but there is information still to be had and there's some more time in the day. No need for a quick lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS: I was feeling so much better about you.

I would be more angry about this if we were near losing.  Mislynch me, worst case lose another 2 town, and you are sitting with 3-6 town, 1-3 mafia, and 0-1 serial killers. 

3-3-1 isn't possible per volt.
4-2-1 is bad, but not game ending
4-3-0 is bad
5-2-0 is fine
5-1-1 is fine
6-1-0 would be an interesting social experiment.

Still - I know for a fact that dsell, pops and Jonah are more likely to be mafia than I am.  It's the only verifiable piece of info I have. 

Axxle, j, pops: barring the 3 mafia remaining solution, at least one of you guys are going to look scummy tomorrow if you proceed with this lynch.  Be better prepared than I was.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

UNVOTE

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

More in a moment.

[jotheonah]

Ugh. Frisk's last 3 posts have given me a town read, so he is making me start to second guess.  And I don't like that Axxle, my other top suspect is on his wagon. And if he DOES flip town AND you guys lynch me tomorrow, we really are in trouble. (unless SK/Vig manages to kill scum in the night)

Unvote while I try to get an idea of whether I could interest anyone in an Axxle wagon instead?

[jotheonah]

Um, For the record, wrote that before SFS's unvote.

Also, I love that SFS thinks I have a supernatural ability to avoid being lynched. But let's not put it to the test.

[jotheonah]

Also I feel like I'm the only one on this wagon who's posted anything that could be called a real case. Someone PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Don't know how to split quotes, so I'll try to accomplish what I'm after by using color.  My responses are in red:

There must be something in the genetic code of the jo/glooble family that compels them to be on every. single. bandwagon. out there. But I digress.

SFS, I'm confused by your vote. By putting C_F at L-1, you are clearly saying that you are ok with him being lynched, as anyone could come along at any time and hammer. That is correct.  The concept of what happens at L-1 has been written about previously, and I've actually read the whole thread. I find it interesting that you ask this question, given my additional post about knowing I am putting him at L-1. But you don't sound altogether convinced that he's mafia. I'm not convinced anyone is or isn't mafia (except me, cause I know I'm town), but I'm definitely more than ok with Frisk being lynched, based on the totality of what's been posted.  As I also stated in my vote post, we will now get to see who does or doesn't hammer, or jump off.  You apparently won't hammer.  That is information. Or did you just not repeat the whole case against him? Are you trying to prove a point about jo being mafia and apparently unlynchable? I'm not trying to prove any point.  If I was trying to prove a point, I would have responded to you with "Unless you can establish the need to know, I'll not be responding, so as to not educate anybody while playing mafia". I'm collecting data. On the subject of Jo, suffice it to say I think I've collected enough data from the group to know that Jo is unlynchable for some unfathomable reason.  (Nicely played Jo!).

I want to hear from pops. He is *still* one of our most experienced players and maybe he just likes to hold back until we're closer to the end-game, I don't know. Or he's just O being O Pops being Pops.  As I've stated before, it's obviously not a team game.  Or if it is, there is no penalty for not playing as part of a team.

Analyzing this bandwagon on C_F has been exceedingly vexing and filled with WIFOM for me. First of all, we don't know how many mafia there are, so he may be the only one left, and the town has just found him out. If he's town, I could see the mafia having joined this bandwagon already (or piggybacking on Galz to "start" it today) or staying off altogether and letting the town blow up. If he's mafia and has partners, well it's getting to a stage where it's awfully risk/reward to bus their partners, but I tend to think they would. It's not impossible to me that they could even lead the charge against their partner to win major town points in the end game. So, to some extent, it feels like it's going to be hard to learn anything until we get actual information from the flip and night roles. There's just so many possibilities in the last paragraph and probably even more I haven't thought of. And there are so many ways to read you bringing all the possibilities up. Everyone is in "oh I don't know, there's this, there's that, I'm vexed, hedge hedge, wonder wonder, discuss, rethink, move over to this possibility, rinse and repeat" mode.  The preponderance of the evidence that speaks to me points to Jo, then Frisk. This is a game of incomplete information, so let's get some more. I moved my vote, let's see what happens now.

We need to hear from Glooble. He has been mostly absent from day 3, in fact the only thing I actually remember him saying made red flags go up for me. He's been a little cleared through some of his actions but he's been a total lurker today, even if he has had a crazy schedule for part of the time. The twinclaim is really the most notable thing from him this whole game, and it impacted the town by buying more time for jo (not sure yet if that's a good or a bad thing) but his confidence on jo being town and then O being mafia irk me. Let me parse this last sentence to confirm.  If I understand you correctly, you're irked that Glooble was confidently correct about O (if you are town, why would that irk you?), but also irked that he is confident that Jo is town (if you are town, why would that irk you? You will, of course, say that as town it irks you because you think Jo is mafia, and you can prove it with your voting.  You camped your vote on Jo most of day 1 (more on that in the next post) and voted for Jo early on Day2 as well, but haven't voted for him on Day3 despite my analysis of O's posts at #2343, which I think make the case even stronger.)

Obviously I'm not hammering C_F tonight. I think that is the likely/inevitable end to this day and I kind of expect it to be the right decision, but there is information still to be had and there's some more time in the day. No need for a quick lynch. Is it a likely end, or is it an inevitable end?  'Cause if it's inevitable, this sounds like hedging, and not casting a vote on someone that is inevitably going down is a nice place for a mafia to be if you want to keep your hands clean. Here's a question:  If you believe that it Frisk is the right lynch decision, is it more right or less right than lynching Jo right now?

 

[popsofctown]

I really don't understand much of what Pops is saying ATM...

He's responding to the lynch at 5% time allotted that CF mentioned.

This kid gets it.


SFS is town because he made a post, deleted it, but ultimately did actually make the post in which he declared he would use humor. 
Whenever I debate whether to make a post or delete it as mafia, the longer I deliberate, the less likely I am to approve the message to wander dangerously out to sea. 

He was also transparent about this process, but not in an apologetic defensive way.  scumSwitched would not mention his uncertainty in whether or not to post a declaration he would use humor, he'd more likely keep it to himself because it makes him seem like mafia afraid of looking bad.

He's at that absolutely new phase where I'm going to put it past him to fake something like confessing to posting anxiety.  He's my strongest town read in the game thus far.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

-- snip--
Still - I know for a fact that dsell, pops and Jonah are more likely to be mafia than I am.  It's the only verifiable piece of info I have.

Axxle, j, pops: barring the 3 mafia remaining solution, at least one of you guys are going to look scummy tomorrow if you proceed with this lynch.  Be better prepared than I was.

emphais mine
The bold is why I unvoted.  I was writing the post that became #2500 when I read this response from Frisk, and I was really beginning to look hard at DSell (which is why, in 2500, there is a parenthetical about "more on that in the next post" which I will get to in another post).

I'm still ok with Frisk going down, but I'd like to give him a chance to explain the "it's the only verifiable piece of info I have".

What say, Frisk? Also, why the advice to your suspects ("be better prepared than I was").

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Ah, Pops. Sigh.

The level of effort it takes.

Would I be correct in assuming that 2501 is in response to my 2431?  Cause you know how I love the lack of antecedents.

+1 though for very effectively disproving that "the quote button is our friend".

[jotheonah]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?

[jotheonah]

SFS really is a funny guy.

Robz, I would love for you to weigh in on recent events.

Funny strange, or funny ha-ha?

Little from column A, a little from column B.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, so back to my analysis of Dsell re: Jo, and...the lynchpin of my argument evaporated. DOH.

Briefly: Thinking I had caught Dsell in a lie, I was gonna climb all over post 735, where Dsell says

"I voted for jo when everyone was trolling but unvoted pretty soon after.

Still thinking about whether to vote.

P-p edit: up to six now...

Uh..another p-p edit: down to five now."

knowing that all the votecounts through 1-8 showed Dsell not voting.  But it dawned on my that if somebody votes and unvotes between counts, he stays in non-voting status, and this is indeed what happened.  Reminder to self: check ALL the data (not just the data SUMMARIES) before drawing conclusions.

Still, #2493 bothers me for the reasons I brought up in my comments. And so now Dsell joins my list of "suspicious".

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still ok with Frisk going down, but I'd like to give him a chance to explain the "it's the only verifiable piece of info I have".

What say, Frisk? Also, why the advice to your suspects ("be better prepared than I was").

The only verifiable piece of information I have is my role PM.  I 100% know for sure that the other 3 people in the non-O wagon have a better chance of being mafia than I do.

As for the advice to my suspects - I believe at least 1 of them to be town (I think 4 mafia - 0 SK to be less likely AND even if there was 3 mafia remaining - I seriously doubt that all 3 of them are mafia)

Assuming at least 1 town - they are in a prime position to get rammed tomorrow after I am flipped.

J and Pops are in the worst spots - as they will have then been on the wrong side of 3 lynches... not to mention the Grujah shenanigans.

As lynching time came - I didn't really consider that I'd be left standing in a pool with J, Pops and DSell as non O voters.  I've never been worried about my public perception - and nobody really suspected me (as several people pointed out in the tables voting discussion).  All the sudden I went from mostly harmless to public enemy #1.

Oh - and hi pops.  You pop in to quote something and thats it?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I also note the following chronology:

I took Jo to L-2 (6th vote) in 732. In 735, Dsell professes indecision.  Between 735 and Dsell's (non-troll) vote for Jo at 742, Tables had unvoted for Jo (taking us to down to 5 votes).  Therefore, Dsell got to cast a vote without taking us to L-1.

@Frisk - Can you summarize your suspicions of Dsell.

@Robz - Although it pains me GREATLY to agree with Jo twice in one day, I'd like to hear your thoughts on what I've brought up.

[jotheonah]

Well, lots of people not around. And I'mma disappear for a while. In the meantime, Vote: Axxle

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

-- snip--
Oh - and hi pops.  You pop in to quote something and thats it?

I'm telling you, he's scared of me.

In fairness though, it may be that he has a limit on the number of questions he answers in a game, and I probably busted the limit long ago.  But hey, that's just Pops being Pops.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, lots of people not around. And I'mma disappear for a while. In the meantime, Vote: Axxle

No prob.  You're safe, no worries.

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - I have to go lose in the dominion tournament - but my suspicious of DSell are summarized by RobZ - and in one of my posts from last night.

There honestly isn't much there.  It isn't a good case.

[popsofctown]

I'm gonna level with you guys.

I haven't caught up on the thread yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm gonna level with you guys.

I haven't caught up on the thread yet.

Pics or it didn't happen.

[Robz888]

Hi all,

I am glad that Frisk is NOT at L-1. I don't support lynching him, probably. This is unfortunate, because there is a volume of evidence against him:

-- Galzria, who we know is innocent, told us to go get Frisk.
-- Frisk did not vote for O. He did vote for Axxle1, and wanted to lynch Grujah.
-- In general, I think the arguments he has made today, while mostly valid, carry the tone of scum.

However, I just cannot get past this:

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

I support this bandwagon (and yes I have already FOS'd CF multiple times before).

Vote: Captain Frisk

Vote Count 2-3

jotheonah (2): Galzria, Dsell
Glooble (1): Captain_Frisk
Galzria (1): jotheonah
Captain_Frisk (2): popsofctown, O

Not voting {6}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables, Grujah, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, June 25, 9:59 a.m. EDT

Also, I haven't seen Frisk really bring this up in order to defend himself. If O voting for him was a ploy, wouldn't he be reminding us of it all the time now? He's not, I'm doing that.

I don't feel too strongly about an Axxle2 lynch. Maybe I am putting way too much stake in mafia not voting for fellow mafia at consequential times, but Axxle2 was the 5th vote for 0 (and Glooble was the 4th). You know, it's just not a certainty of O being lynched at that point, right? I don't know guys. I find it tough to believe.

So I return to Jo and Dsell, who CANNOT both be mafia, and indeed Jo has been more suspicious to me all game. I haven't gotten a bad vibe from his this round the way I have previous rounds, but I certainly got those vibes previous rounds. Now, O defended Jo kind of a lot---probably more than I would expect, if they were both mafia. Dsell, on the other hand, kept his votes on Jo, did not get on the O bandwagon.... maybe that's ultimately scummier. Of course, I also really suspected Jo in other rounds, so how can I fault him for that.... Blargh.

Sorry if it sounds like I am going around in circles. I sort of am going around in circles, and I have completely different analyses depdning on whether there is 1 more mafia or 2 more mafia.

But anyway, I think I'm closer to voting Jo or Dsell, than I am to voting Frisk or Axxle. Do my reasons make sense?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

[Axxle]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

I'll vote for him for no other reason* than as a policy lynch that should have happened decades ago.

*there are plenty of other reasons too

[Axxle]

As a reminder, I'll be semi VLA for the rest of the weekend.

[Tables]

Robz, I already somehow have more notes on you for today than I did for yesterday. That's pretty impressive (not all of them are good, of course...). I think your reasoning makes sense, and this Frisk wagon now could also be revealing. We had, according to my records:
Axxle (2402)
Pops (2407)
Joth (2461)
SFS (2488)

At this point, it's votes 2 and 3 that really matter. One vote on someone is interesting. Two votes now an it's viable. Three, and they're a likely target for the day. It's worth noting, SFS had a vote on Joth from before this, which makes me slightly uncomfortable with Pops in there.

I'm also wondering if Joth's playstyle change was a result of O dying. I... was thinking this was due to his teammate being lynched for crazy, but actually, this just feels like Joth normally. Getting more helpful as the town gets smaller. So... eh.

DSell at this point isn't striking me as being mafia. I don't have a strong read, but he seems somewhat pro-town to me. So that leaves really as my main suspects Axxle and Joth. Axxle I've hardly considered and really struggle to read the guy. Joth is just, it's mad, his brinksmanship of being constantly almost killed is amazing.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip--
Joth is just, it's mad, his brinksmanship of being constantly almost killed is amazing.

It's not amazing, it's easily explainable. People only talk about how crazy, weird, bad-town-player he is and then don't vote for him.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-5

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Axxle (1): jotheonah

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Dsell]

SFS, your analysis of my post is frankly pretty terrible. Especially the part about "if you think his lynch is inevitable, by not hammering right now you look suspicious."

Your case against jo is interesting because this is pretty much what I was saying might happen on Day 2:

He's said he's been playing more like O or TINAS (a player from Mafia I) this game. Those two players have been rather successful because of/despite their playstyle, and shared a town win in Mafia I. I believe that jo, as mafia, thought he could play the carefree part well and hoped he could convince the town not to vote for him. By getting people to believe he's VT, he can skate through the game under the radar: trusted by the town and not worth a night kill from the mafia. I don't want this to be a successful tactic. It's too dangerous, too good if it works.

And he hasn't done a lot to subdue my suspicions. He's a lot more helpful now, but it's such a turnaround that it sticks out like a sore thumb. Right now I see C_F as a bit more suspicious, but jo has been playing this whole game scummily.

Robz, I agree with all of your points about why C_F is suspicious but I don't agree that O's second vote on him could not have been a bus. It took 7 to lynch, so 2 votes on C_F was not putting him in much danger. Especially because pops didn't have tons of goodwill with the town at that point. And oh look, pops unvoted on the next page and the bandwagon fizzled.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am glad that Frisk is NOT at L-1. I don't support lynching him, probably. This is unfortunate, because there is a volume of evidence against him:

-- Galzria, who we know is innocent, told us to go get Frisk.
-- Frisk did not vote for O. He did vote for Axxle1, and wanted to lynch Grujah.
-- In general, I think the arguments he has made today, while mostly valid, carry the tone of scum.


--snip--

Also, I haven't seen Frisk really bring this up in order to defend himself. If O voting for him was a ploy, wouldn't he be reminding us of it all the time now? He's not, I'm doing that.
--snip--
But anyway, I think I'm closer to voting Jo or Dsell, than I am to voting Frisk or Axxle. Do my reasons make sense?

Once again - I'm happy with your outcome.  I am also happy to not be at L-1!

As for the evidence - I can't help my voting history - other than pointing out that there are 2 other people with the exact same history.  If I'm going to get ding'ed for being wrong on Axxle - I should not get dinged for listening to reason on Grujah - who's lynch looked super scummy as soon as the wagon was clear. 

As for Galz - I find this to be quasi-weak.  Galz was wrong about Axxle1 - so his reads aren't infallible.  When we look at the night kills (Galz and Grujah) - I have some challenges. 

Let's assume I'm mafia:
 - I wouldn't want to kill Galz and leave his unwavering FoS at me... I can't debate with a dead man.
 - I also don't really want to kill Grujah as he seemed like an easy lynch - hell I probably could have lynched him yesterday instead of letting my scumbuddy O get lynched instead.  Plus - I (should) have Grujah-Gratitude going forward because I saved his ass. 

Let's assume I'm not mafia:
- Killing Galz points an unwavering FoS at me (not mafia) forever.  Pretty good mafia play!
- After the Grujah wagon failed (partly because of my unvote) - he was looking pretty town - so it also makes sense for mafia to get him out of the picture.

As others have pointed out - Galz was looking pretty scummy previously (not including O in his tables table, voting for Axxle2) - so I tend to think he was left alive by mafia so that we could argue over which one of us (Frisk / Galz) was mafia and mislynch - but then targeted by a SK / Vig who thought that he seemed more suspicious than me. 

In summary - I don't feel that the Galz FOS coupled with the Galz night kill make sense if I'm mafia.  Neither of the night kill targets are good choices if was actually mafia.

Final point in response to your post - I'm with DSell on the O voting.  I've been letting you drum it because (hey - I like any reason for people to not vote for me) - but I don't see it as an especially compelling argument.  I don't feel I was particularly scummy on Day 1 / 2 - so O's attempt to wagon on me wasn't likely to take off (and as you can see - it didn't)

Now - on the subject of Jo or DSell vs. Axxle / Frisk... can we discuss Pops?

--- will post more - wife aggro --- errands to run --- help help help ---

[jotheonah]

Then let's just lynch Jo for crying out loud.

To all - Who would NOT vote for Jo right now?

I probably wouldn't. No promises though.

[Glooble]

This is going to blow everyone's mind,

I'm not sure jo being lynched is the worst outcome at this point. I'm not even sure its a worse outcome than lynching Captain_Frisk.

The extent to which everyone jumped on my twinclaim has made me really scared to waver on it, and I think that's been bad for the town. I've contributed in a major way to his unlynchability, and at this point I have to admit I'm not %100 sure he's town. When I made the claim, I was pretty damn close, but he has gotten scummier as the days have worn on.

I'm not ready to vote for him right now or anything, but I'd like to review the arguments against him with an open mind. I don't think our RL relationship should give him a free pass, and this wouldn't be the first game he's bluffed me in (we play poker together sometimes.)

A CF lynch makes me uncomfortable right now. The case feels weak to me.

I'm sorry I've been less available this week than I anticipated. If anyone has questions they'd like me to answer, I'd be more than happy to.

[jotheonah]

Interesting.  Eager to see how pops reacts to this heelfaceturn. (Pops was the one trusting Gloob's read on me as gospel). Also, for the record, Glooble, I don't think I've EVER successfully bluffed you in poker. You usually see right through me.


Also, guys, lest you get carried away, my being scum still doesn't make any sense, for reasons I've articulated.

[Glooble]

Not giving you a free pass =/= heel face turn. I still think you're town, but I feel like my absolute certainty on that point is keeping me from seeing all the possibilities, and more importantly, its constraining the thinking of other townspeople. The possibility, however remote, that you are scum and my inability to read you is going to screw over the whole town is starting to seem really frightening to me.

[Robz888]

Glooble, if I wasn't nearly positive you were non-mafia, I would be calling for your head right now.

Remember that I said all along Glooble's twinclaim did not, in my mind, weaken the case against Jo--it weakened the case against Jo and Glooble together. I never put much stock in Glooble's opinion of Jo, anyway.

In my mind, the lynch should be Jo or Dsell.

[Glooble]

I guess most this was directed at pops, who has cleared jo primarily based on my input. If I defend jo I want it to be based on solid reasons I can draw from evidence presented within the game, not my gut feelings or any kind of nepotism.

I'm pretty sure if I review jo's behavior based as much as possible on logic rather than intuition, I'm still going to find what I think is a rather weak case against him. If nothing else, the "jo and O wouldn't both play crazy" is a really strong point in jo's favor. But I also consider the CF case weak at this point. So that leaves DSell. SO far, the strongest argument against him seems to be a PoE analysis posted by someone who might very well be a serial killer.

None of these seem like good options to me. I could conceivably be convinced of any of them, but I can't believe there isn't a better lynch candidate.

[popsofctown]

I'm not sure O's wagonning of Frisk there is townpoints rather than scumpoints.  The wagon was so unlikely to come to fruition.  Compare it to his wagonning of Grujah - it was very clear that could come together, which is why O jumped on.  O's not a fool.  I doubt he played nice with every player on his team all game.

His fake position on me as being scum is inconsistent with him agreeing to wagon with me on Frisk.  It makes Frisk special, he went out of his way for that vote.  But he didn't do anything to make sure the vote actually led to a lynch.  He just said "yeah me too".  Which is what he did with Grujah, yes, but he didn't need to do that to get Grujah wagon to lynch level.  He needed to do that to get Frisk's wagon anywhere near L-1.  O did that for free townpoints for himself, but he'll get none for me because I'm a shrewd scorekeeper.  Neither does Frisk.


Glooble is just upset because if his read is wrong the whole game collapses around him and he would have to feel guilty.  He's like a 90% free throw shooter that wants a teammate to draw the foul instead so it's not all on him.  Nothing Glooble has said about his own read has had anything to do with him interpreting the behavior of his twin, just doubting the read itself because other people don't seem to be 100% sure of their reads.

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.


Did Dsell interact with O at all?

[popsofctown]

I guess most this was directed at pops, who has cleared jo primarily based on my input. If I defend jo I want it to be based on solid reasons I can draw from evidence presented within the game, not my gut feelings or any kind of nepotism.

I'm pretty sure if I review jo's behavior based as much as possible on logic rather than intuition, I'm still going to find what I think is a rather weak case against him. If nothing else, the "jo and O wouldn't both play crazy" is a really strong point in jo's favor. But I also consider the CF case weak at this point. So that leaves DSell. SO far, the strongest argument against him seems to be a PoE analysis posted by someone who might very well be a serial killer.

None of these seem like good options to me. I could conceivably be convinced of any of them, but I can't believe there isn't a better lynch candidate.

Hey, hey.  No ad hominem.  You can't discriminate against SKs, they wanna lynch scum too.

[popsofctown]

I can't remember if I ever actual read page 100 and 99.  I'm going to assume I did.

[jotheonah]

those are the pages that bust the whole game open.

People I'm willing to lynch:
CF still actually again
Axxle
Pops
Robz

People I would lynch if a wagon magically materialized
Dsell

People I won't lynch
Tables
SFS
Jotheonah
Glooble

This is actually not a terrible place to be.

CF, I noticed you didn't claim at L-1 before. (Granted you weren't there very long). Any reason?

[Robz888]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

On stupid phone now - nO mega posts

[jotheonah]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

Not particularly. But do I have a choice in the matter?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I can't remember if I ever actual read page 100 and 99.  I'm going to assume I did.

Not much happened on 99 or 100, so if you didn't, it's probably ok.

[Captain_Frisk]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

Not particularly. But do I have a choice in the matter?

I actually meant pops here.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Except that he'll never get there.

[popsofctown]

Jo's still off the table.  Glooble is taking my shot whether he likes it or not.

He is very much on the table.

Seriously -it's like he wants our suspicion.

On stupid phone now - nO mega posts

I don't see how it's suspicious of me unless you are proposing an O/Jo/pops team, which is the stuff of humor.

[jotheonah]

SFS, are you saying that you think I'm magically-unlynchable scum or magically-unlynchable town?

Or do you have no idea if I'm scum or town?

[Robz888]

Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.

[Captain_Frisk]

At least 1 mafia / serial killer

[popsofctown]

Dsell's noninteraction with O is indeed promising.  I hate killing someone for nothing, but it's a solid tell and I've seen it work before.

I certainly approve this wagon more than one on me, or Jo, or Glooble.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-6

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Axxle (1): jotheonah
Dsell (1): Robz888

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

Well... I have to say Pop's reaction to Glooble's claim was less interesting than I'd hoped. I don't understand why he thinks Joth is now off the table, as well.

Having done some looking back, I'm thinking I might agree with Robz on DSell. I don't have much of a read on him, but then I'm not hugely suspicious of anyone, and some of the reasoning behind a DSell lynch makes sense. On the other hand, what do we really learn if he's town?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I have 3 pieces of information, and no analysis.  Yes, I know what that means.

Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.

Emphasis mine
1) FWIW, the assertion above in boldface is false. Jo voted for himself in 1793, and unvoted 51 minutes later in 1803. At no time during any of this did O vote for Jo.  In fact, O even posted, in 1810, the following (quoting in its entirety, italics added to separate from my prose in this post, underlined emphasis is mine, twice):

"Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.

I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic."

2) This pronouncement by O of Jo's town-ness is one I did not find researching my wall-o-text post at 2343, but as I said there, O defends Jo again two posts later, in 1812.

3) In researching for this post, I found another O stance on Jo that I failed to add to 2343. In 873, O says the following (quoting only O's original text, but in its entirety [he quoted Theorel, which I've omitted], italics again added for separation, and underline added as well):
"On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft"

I don't know what to make of Rob's inaccuracy (had to grope for a relatively neutral word), but it's pretty clear to me that O sure wanted everyone to know that he thought J was town, especially at a key moment - when Jo was still close to death.

[Robz888]

Well... I have to say Pop's reaction to Glooble's claim was less interesting than I'd hoped. I don't understand why he thinks Joth is now off the table, as well.

Having done some looking back, I'm thinking I might agree with Robz on DSell. I don't have much of a read on him, but then I'm not hugely suspicious of anyone, and some of the reasoning behind a DSell lynch makes sense. On the other hand, what do we really learn if he's town?

If he's town, I'm going to be more inclined to trust his read on Jo (which did jive with my own on the previous 2 days).

Plus, you know--we're doing okay here, guys. And it will be interesting to see how many kills happen in the night. And I'm still betting we have another power townie, and they get another night to do their power.

The Dsell decision comes down to process of elimination for me. Tables and SFS are town. I have evidence against everybody else, but each person has mitigating evidence, too. Except Dsell.

Edit: SFS, hold on, I've got an answer for you.

[jotheonah]

Sweet Catch, SFS

[popsofctown]

SFS, you can IIoA all you want since you're an Innocent Child this game, but that post was actually analysis.
OH SNAP ANTECEDENT
MUST QUOTE

I have 3 pieces of information, and no analysis.  Yes, I know what that means.

Okay, I've done some thinking, and I've made up my mind:

VOTE: DSELL

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense. He had no public relationship with O, they didn't ever vote for the same person, they didn't ever vote for each other. Dsell was squarely in the anti-Jo camp. I believe Dsell is correct, or he's mafia. The thing is, Jo was a great choice to be part of the bandwagon against, because he never got there, so he was always available next round to bandwagon against. And the people voting him got to look smart on Day 1 when they didn't lynch Axxle. If Dsell is is mafia, that means both he and O were safely off the Day 1 mislynch.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him. I can see him being mafia, alongside O, much more than any of the other people, some of whom voted to lynch, one of whom was voted by O... it's down to Jo and Dsell for me. And pops and Glooble are fairly certain that Jo is not mafia. I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong. There was also some bickering between O and Jo after I said my theory, and also O did vote Jo right when he had self-voted and was about to die.

So I'm down to Dsell here. VOTE: DSELL

By the way, let's say we're right, but that doesn't end the game. Okay, we've got another mafia or Serial Killer or something. If I don't live, you will see that I am town. Do not say, "oh well, he's not SK. Guess there's no SK." Plenty of other people could be the SK, if we have one.

Emphasis mine
1) FWIW, the assertion above in boldface is false. Jo voted for himself in 1793, and unvoted 51 minutes later in 1803. At no time during any of this did O vote for Jo.  In fact, O even posted, in 1810, the following (quoting in its entirety, italics added to separate from my prose in this post, underlined emphasis is mine, twice):

"Jo reads dumb townie, just like he always has.

I would have voted him as a policy lynch for self-voting (which yes, I have threatened to do before but never actually did) but the "omg wanting to live is a scumtell" is such crap that I can't justify voting along with users of such terrible logic."

2) This pronouncement by O of Jo's town-ness is one I did not find researching my wall-o-text post at 2343, but as I said there, O defends Jo again two posts later, in 1812.

3) In researching for this post, I found another O stance on Jo that I failed to add to 2343. In 873, O says the following (quoting only O's original text, but in its entirety [he quoted Theorel, which I've omitted], italics again added for separation, and underline added as well):
"On who we're voting for? Yea, I do. I don't buy that J is actually mafia.

Currently my suspicions are still on Popsofctown and on Captain Frisk, with a lesser suspicion placed on SwitchedFromStarcraft"

I don't know what to make of Rob's inaccuracy (had to grope for a relatively neutral word), but it's pretty clear to me that O sure wanted everyone to know that he thought J was town, especially at a key moment - when Jo was still close to death.

[Robz888]

Damn. You're totally right. I'm wrong. F*ck. Okay, strike that point in Jo's favor from the record.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, are you saying that you think I'm magically-unlynchable scum or magically-unlynchable town?

Or do you have no idea if I'm scum or town?

Unless you can establish why you need to know, no wait, that one's been used.
Read my posting history, no wait, I think that one was yours.
I let you figure that one out, no wait, that was O.

I don't believe the question to be germane since you can't be lynched.  However, my viewpoint (which I've posted before) is that even if you flip town, we (the town) gain, if nothing else, an increase in the signal to noise ratio.

But why are you worried - you can't buy a lynch EVEN WHEN YOU VOTE FOR YOURSELF.

[Robz888]

If Jo were to flip town, I don't think that would be a good thing having killed him. I appreciate his analysis, and he is being helpful today.

I must push for the Dsell lynch.

[jotheonah]

As glad as I am SFS pointed it out, I don't actually think it's a meaningful inaccuracy. I don't see it as an intentional lie from scum-Robz, because the boost it gives to his point isn't worth risking a LAL response.

Since Robz proposed the Dsell wagon, no one's spoken out against it, but no one's jumped on it. And that means very little, info-wise.

Actually, though, the salient point is here:

Plus, you know--we're doing okay here, guys. And it will be interesting to see how many kills happen in the night. And I'm still betting we have another power townie, and they get another night to do their power.

Dsell is a pretty informational lynch. He's the one person most of us still have as a null read. With him gone, we'll be left with only people we have some kind of a read on. So, I'm warming to this.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Dsell

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS - after your information and analysis - what is your read on J?

I'm still stuck @ WIFOM on that.  Either O wanted to protect his scumbuddy - and J was just crazy gambitting or O wanted to make a townfriend - either are acceptable.

Do you read it as an intentional mistake from RobZ? - then he's pushing for DSell to lynch an innocent over J - when he could have just hammered me (unless he woke up too late?)

On DSell - I don't have any issues with it, but the case seems to be PoE - rather than specific scumtells - although I don't know what we really have better on anyone else.  Deadline is Tuesday?  I don't want to be too hasty - and DSell does get 1/2 of a point for not hammering me... The fact that Jonah is the only other person on the wagon makes me nervous.

@SFS/Tables: If we lynch DSell - and he flips town - where do we go next?

oh - @SFS I'm not ignoring your question from a page or two back - if you want me to answer I will - I just wanted to keep us on track here.

@pops - ditto to why I think you're suspicious for taking J off the table.

[popsofctown]

intentional mistake

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

If Jo were to flip town, I don't think that would be a good thing having killed him. I appreciate his analysis, and he is being helpful today.

I must push for the Dsell lynch.

Over the past few post you're starting to sound more hedgy to me Robz.  And IIRC, over the past several game days, you've made seemingly good cases against folks, then later backed away. Yet here, you've expressed perhaps more doubt than at any other time (quoting selectively now from your "vote Dsell post" at 2543):

I'm far from sure, but I think Dsell makes the most sense.

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game.

Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him.

it's down to Jo and Dsell for me.

I've suspected Jo all of the first two rounds, and I think I was just plain wrong.

yet you say you must push for Dsell, even after I've weakened your argument against Dsell, and provided you with more evidence against Jo. And you are on record as "not voting lightly".

Further, to say that it's bad if we lynch someone that flips town is, well, obvious.  If we lynch Dsell and he's town, that would be bad too. Of course, I argue that it would not be AS bad, for all the reasons that everyone has brought up already concerning the oddness of his play.  And

I have made no decision on Dsell - I haven't (can't?) identify where he falls on my suspicion gradient, but I can tell you he's not a high priority for research or examination.  You however, have begun to worry me (again).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

* oddness of Jo's play (if it wasnt clear)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS - after your information and analysis - what is your read on J?

I'm still stuck @ WIFOM on that.  Either O wanted to protect his scumbuddy - and J was just crazy gambitting or O wanted to make a townfriend - either are acceptable.

Do you read it as an intentional mistake from RobZ? - then he's pushing for DSell to lynch an innocent over J - when he could have just hammered me (unless he woke up too late?)

On DSell - I don't have any issues with it, but the case seems to be PoE - rather than specific scumtells - although I don't know what we really have better on anyone else.  Deadline is Tuesday?  I don't want to be too hasty - and DSell does get 1/2 of a point for not hammering me... The fact that Jonah is the only other person on the wagon makes me nervous.

@SFS/Tables: If we lynch DSell - and he flips town - where do we go next?

oh - @SFS I'm not ignoring your question from a page or two back - if you want me to answer I will - I just wanted to keep us on track here.

@pops - ditto to why I think you're suspicious for taking J off the table.

Re: Robz error - I don't know how to read it, that's why I said I don't know what to make of it.  I really do think about stuff before I post, guys.  That said, it is unsettling when combined with the other points I made regarding his case.

If I asked you a question in a previous post, I do want an answer. I'm about to bring that up again to Pops.

My read on Jo is that if town, he's muddying the waters, and if mafia, I don't want him rewarded for playing this way. (Wow, now I'm an expert.) He needs to go, whether he is town or mafia.  Several people (in addition to me) have made that point.  Which is why I'm playing the part of Don Quixote.  He's not gonna be lynched, and that helps mafia, because they have concluded (mostly accurately) there is a high possibility that my (admittedly limited) analytical prowess is best wasted on a non-viable target.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

intentional mistake

Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.
Rhetorical question: what are you trying to communicate here.

Non-rhetorical question (2nd request): The one I posed to you Pops in my post #2503. And yes, I'm aware that I could quote it here, but I'll let you expend a little effort this time.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@ Frisk - sorry dude, you asked one more question in 2557 that I forgot to answer.  If we lynch Dsell, and he flips town, I will (and WE all should) have some questions for Robz, and I will continue to push for Jo's lynch.

[Robz888]

@SFS, all I can say is that dwell stands out to me the most, because I have strong cases for and against almost everyone else. Dsell has some minor bad points against him--he didn't vote O, O hardly ever acknowledged him--and nothing that exonerates him. Because Dsell is such a curious exception to the game right now, he is the best lynch.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, you can IIoA all you want since you're an Innocent Child this game, but that post was actually analysis.
--snip--

Thanks, I can feel the love.  Perhaps I've gained enough standing to get an answer to my second request, in 2562?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS, all I can say is that dwell stands out to me the most, because I have strong cases for and against almost everyone else. Dsell has some minor bad points against him--he didn't vote O, O hardly ever acknowledged him--and nothing that exonerates him. Because Dsell is such a curious exception to the game right now, he is the best lynch.

(emphasis mine)
OK thanks, that last point helps me quite a bit, as it is somewhat analogous to why I investigated Tables, he struck me as the curious standout.

I'd like to hear from other folks about the boldfaced assertion above. Is it smart/good/valid (pick a word) gameplay?

Also, I will likely not be back on again tonite, and will be unavailable for a significant portion of tomorrow, until tomorrow evening.

[popsofctown]

intentional mistake

Another example of how the quote button is not always our friend.
Rhetorical question: what are you trying to communicate here.

Non-rhetorical question (2nd request): The one I posed to you Pops in my post #2503. And yes, I'm aware that I could quote it here, but I'll let you expend a little effort this time.

I thought 2503 was rhetorical.
The answer is yes.

[Captain_Frisk]

CF, I noticed you didn't claim at L-1 before. (Granted you weren't there very long). Any reason?

Answer as promised:

I considered it.  Then I realized that nobody asked for it, and I figured that anyone who hammered me without asking / waiting for discussion would be revealing information that I want the surviving town to have - so I waited it out.  Further discussion here is anti-town - which I hate to quote pops on:

No one has any idea of what rolefishing is, or why it's bad.

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

This thread is now about Counting House.

Hey look pops - that's how the quote button works - you put someone else's words in - and then you add some commentary around it. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Pops - if you are town - why do you hate us?

[Dsell]

Maybe I'm succumbing to WIFOM, but Dsell seems like he is playing a great game. he hasn't raised anybody's ire (except dead Theorel, which might also mean something), everything he says is logical, his votes are logical... Maybe this is just a feeling. I have a bad feeling about him.

Mafia III was my first game of mafia ever. IRL or online. I started out trusting my gut and it led me to suspect you, and you were town. When I started prioritizing logic over instinct in that game I correctly picked out the whole mafia team. So I'm trying to learn from my mistakes in that game and am indeed playing a very logical game. There's a lot of WIFOM because you don't always know people's motivation but I think in the end it can be a winning strategy.

But you and pops are wrong when you say I've had no interaction with O in this game. Aside from day 2 when I was on vacation the majority of the day, O defended me multiple times on day 1 and voted for Theorel because he misrepresented me, even though Theorel seemed town to me. I pointed out yesterday that I think he was trying to get some favor from me by fighting some of my battles for me.

[popsofctown]

I don't hate you.  I just enjoy jokes where I'm the only one laughing.  And stuff.  I'm sorry no one else gets a share of the delicious irony i find permeates our universe.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I don't hate you.  I just enjoy jokes where I'm the only one laughing.  And stuff.  I'm sorry no one else gets a share of the delicious irony i find permeates our universe.

I hear you, brotha. That's why I keep hitting the ball back.

Thanks for this. It was like a fresh breeze into my late evening, plus it explains so much. With this single post, you've now become one of MY favorite posters on f.DS. (You shouldn't let it swell your head though. WW is has been fading for a while.  I'm surprised he's the fan base). 

Much love.
(To pops, not WW)

P.S. It's the stuff that's the best, though the irony can get juicy enough to make it a close call.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm really gone this time, till tomorrow early evening EDT.  Have fun all, and thanks for putting up with me. It's starting to be a little bit fun.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-7

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Dsell (2): Robz888, jotheonah

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

I've thought about it, and concluded that Frisk's refusal to vote O is almost certainly a towntell. O was looking like, especially after my analysis (mainly because of my special almost-clear status) like he'd be a likely lynch, and Frisk had the chance to hammer his partner for brownie points. As mafia, I can't see why he wouldn't do that, knowing he'd come under fire the following day. DSell I really don't buy... he hasn't said much, and I still lack a huge read, but what he's said comes across as collected, thoughtful and concise. Hmm... actually, those sound more like mafia traits, being very careful with what you say. Ugh. I WAS going to then go on to arguing Joth is the most likely scum in my book, but now I'm back on DSell again. It'd explain the lack of read, and at this point no read is a scum read.

Where would scum put teammates on their happy lynch charts? Not at the top, in case it encourages an easy bus you don't even get credit for. Maybe at the bottom, so it looks like you're happy enough, and can point and say 'no, I wanted him dead' later. Maybe not on the list, if you think you'll get away with it. DSell had him on his list, near the bottom, and didn't vote for O. However, it's worth noting DSell was the last person to post his list (due to vacation or otherwise, still the case). This meant he had time to give the other lists a look and post his own based on other people's, which if he were mafia would seem a reasonable thing to do. On top of that, there's this:

Finished.

I'm going to start putting a lot of content together to summarize my impressions/ideas about who is scum as well as reasoning for my vote, but for now and since we have so little time, Vote: Galzria. In short, reading through these pages I at one point had completely bought into everything he was saying before realizing that he was still possible mafia. When I looked at what he said with that possibility in mind AND in light of some of the things he's said recently (ok I thought Robz was crazy at first too but I understood what he was meaning waaaay sooner than Galz did, and Galz was pretty rough on him about it), I actually feel VERY worried that he's mafia and exactly where he wants to be: front and center with a mix of people trusting and distrusting him.

I know it looks crazy that I'm getting on the bandwagon with the person I've campaigned hardest against, but jo is probably only my 3rd or 4th most-likely-to-be-mafia at this point.

I could support lynching O but I have some strong misgivings about it. He's been crazy and quite oddly defensive D2, but I don't believe he's ever been in serious hot water before in any game. I fear that lynching him, whether he flips mafia or town, will give us a lot of information about how O plays but not so much information we can use to make good lynches on future days. Obviously lynching mafia, if he is mafia, is worth it. But he's not at the top of my suspicions list and I still believe we have time to make a better choice.

Also, was O meaning that he was leaving immediately? Is he gone? Because that would be sucky to lynch someone while they're gone/a convenient excuse depending on how you look at it. But Axxle, if he's really gone I wouldn't be expecting a claim from him.

Like I said, more content to come.

Which just reeks of defending a teammate, especially when he later states he'd be willing to lynch O (but had preferable candidates).

I'm still not sure of this, because I can see some of the logic as town, but it feels kinda like scum defending scum and being just a tiny bit unsure of where to go. So for now: Vote: DSell.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-8

Captain_Frisk (2): Axxle, popsofctown
Dsell (3): Robz888, jotheonah, Tables

Not voting {4}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

Did I just get my post sandwiched by vote counts?

Cool

[Dsell]

Let me address some of these points later this afternoon. Gone for a while.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Pops -

Since I don't trust that your vote really reflects who you think is mafia (see pushing for O lynch while voting for Grujah) - would you care to chime in on the Captain Frisk vs. DSell debate?

[popsofctown]

@Pops -

Since I don't trust that your vote really reflects who you think is mafia (see pushing for O lynch while voting for Grujah) - would you care to chime in on the Captain Frisk vs. DSell debate?

I haven't made up my mind.  Robz seems to disagree with me about you.  Dsell has been forgettable all game and I do wonder about the reason behind that.  He's certainly not an exciting lynch.

My instincts still point to C_F, but it's not at all slamdunk.  There's pros to lynching Dsell.  He's the only player alive O really seemed to avoid (Dsell has cited interactions, but I forgot those interactions, and that may be because O and Dsell made them forgettable interactions, e.g. safe play).  If Dsell flips town, O would seem to be the person who doesn't avoid interacting with scumpartners (a minority), and we could look into the porpoises behind his interactions, swimming in hyperactive ecstasy.

And I do have to put some stock in theorel saying Dsell is scum.  I have a pretty null read on Dsell, so a confirmed teammate's opinion would take precedence over mine.  Galzria thought C_F was scum, but Galzria also thought I was scum, so I don't think he was on top of this agme.

Dsell lynch is a good lynch but it's not my lynch.  I guess that's why I didn't talk about it much before prompted.  I do see myself voting on it today.

[Captain_Frisk]

And one more question -

You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O.  I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care.  Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?

[Glooble]

This feels wrong to me, but I can't put my finger on it. I'll wait on DSell's defense before making a decision.

[popsofctown]

And one more question -

You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O.  I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care.  Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?

I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>

I lost my cake and puked it too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him. 

[jotheonah]

And one more question -

You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O.  I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care.  Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?

I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>

I lost my cake and puked it too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him.

Seriously pops, if any one of us made that excuse, would you buy it? You're a smart player. Voltgloss posts vote counts with some regularity. Your vote continued not to exist for some time. "I forgot" seems extremely suspect to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

Volt: Will there be an extension on account of forum outage?

[Voltgloss]

Volt: Will there be an extension on account of forum outage?

Yes, the lynch deadline will be extended by 24 hours.  Will incorporate in next vote count. 

[popsofctown]

And one more question -

You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O.  I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care.  Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?

I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>

I lost my cake and puked it too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him.

Seriously pops, if any one of us made that excuse, would you buy it? You're a smart player. Voltgloss posts vote counts with some regularity. Your vote continued not to exist for some time. "I forgot" seems extremely suspect to me.

Yes, I would buy it if it was plausible.

[jotheonah]

And one more question -

You helped push O-mania with "O lynch is go lynch" and "It rhymes" as a reason... but you weren't actually voting for O.  I've mentioned it a few times - and nobody seems to care.  Could you comment as to why you didn't vote for O?

I've been criticized for commenting too much about why I didn't vote for O >_>

I lost my cake and puked it too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him.

Seriously pops, if any one of us made that excuse, would you buy it? You're a smart player. Voltgloss posts vote counts with some regularity. Your vote continued not to exist for some time. "I forgot" seems extremely suspect to me.

Yes, I would buy it if it was plausible.

What a tautology. Do you consider it plausible?
It's pointless to ask you this, but I take it to everyone else. How believable do you find pops's excuse? I am not sold on it.

[Captain_Frisk]

O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not.  For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.

Vote: O

It's a pretty ugly omgus too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him. 

[popsofctown]

O's inability to remember that Tables is investigated town is scummy, Hawaii or not.  For a scum it blends in with all the other person known to be town, for townies paying any attention at all it should be a flashing green light in your memory that this is the one player in the game whose alignment we know with a high degree of certainty.

Vote: O

It's a pretty ugly omgus too.

I forgot to vote him.  I thought I was voting him. 

I'm confused.  That quote is a supportive reason that I might mistake my current status of voting for O, because I did vote him at some point.  But C_F hates me so somehow he means it in a negative way.

[jotheonah]

So pops remembered voting O but forgot he had changed it in the meantime? That's a little more believable I guess.

[popsofctown]

liek my nu aveetar?

[Captain_Frisk]

So pops remembered voting O but forgot he had changed it in the meantime? That's a little more believable I guess.

It's not completely unbelievable- but neither is O's "I forgot about SFS's roleclaim".

I am thinking about joining the DSell wagon.  I don't like either your or Pops either, but of the 3 of you - of which I fully expect at least 1 to be mafia - DSell is I guess the "smoothest".  He doesn't have our vote history - so he's the least likely to get in trouble for failing to lynch O.  I don't like that the case basically is "he didn't vote for O - and the other guys are too crazy", but I find my gut kindof agreeing with it.

[popsofctown]

O's claim of forgetfullness was not unbeleivable, because it was true.  It wasn't a lie.  He did forget about the roleclaim. 

It was just something scum is more likely to forget. 

I'm not sure scum are more likely to forget where they have their vote.  Maybe they are.  Idk.

[jotheonah]

Oh, I think scum are much less likely to forget where they have their vote.  But if you are scum, in my mind, you didn't really forget.

I am also on the Dsell wagon. But if it turns out to be a fail wagon (or even if Dsell is scum and we're still looking for one more) I'm not sure if I like the pops wagon or the Frisk wagon better right now.

Maybe it won't matter.

[Axxle]

Don't most people check the votecount to make sure the mod is tracking votes correctly? I know I at least check to make sure my vote is in the right place.

DSell's defense of O reminds me some of his defense of Morgrim7 in a MIII.  Because of that I'm reluctant to call it a scumbuddy defense, he seems to like playing devil's advocate; an admittedly dangerous trait to have as town.

[Dsell]

Ok I see I'm under fire some. I want to address some of these points. A big part of why I didn't vote for O was because it seemed a lot like the Morgrim wagon from Mafia III. There were some big differences (here we were under a deadline, weren't at MYLO), but it seemed very similar essentially: we were largely voting based on playstyle and acting crazy. Morgrim seemed suspicious to me but I was very wary of the wagon. Similarly, O was very scummy but after seeing Morgrim flip town I again was wary. Under the time constraints I would definitely have hammer him, he WAS scummy and better than a no-lynch. That's why I got up at 6:40 am, to ensure that there would be a lynch. Besides this, I don't see much of a case against me. Let me try to sum it up succinctly and refute points as I go along.

Me and O had no interaction----->Not true. I was on vacation day 2 but he defended me multiple times day 1 and I expressed concern about his bandwagon at the end of day 2. Not the kind of interaction that's good for me but interaction nonetheless.

I am too logical----->As I've already pointed out, my gut in Mafia III steered me way wrong. Trying to improve from that performance and I am putting logic before my gut, I don't see what's wrong with that.

I am too "smooth"----->uhh, thanks? I won an essay contest once.

Nobody has a read on me----->What am I supposed to do about this? I was gone day 2 so there was a gap there but I've been pro-town this whole game. Maybe if you want a read on me you should go back and read what I've said. Don't see how this makes me suspicious.

PoE----->This one is legit! Process of elimination is good scumhunting, I think. I used it in Mafia III to figure out who the mafia was. Ironically, it's a very logical argument, Robz. But again, it's wrong. Go back and look through your own arguments, examine your steps, and look for weak spots. SFS has already pointed out a big one. I also have to remind people that this is the fourth mafia game on this forum, and that the mafia have a wealth of scumhunting and "expected" scum behavior to draw on. I think we can't expect them to do what we expect. I suspect they'll be both more subtle and more obvious than we'd expect.

So basically I don't see much of a case here. I still suspect C_F and jo most.

Also, I had an interesting thought earlier. What if Tables is Mafia Chancellor? (Godfather)

[Dsell]

And I was ninja'd by Axxle on my very first point.

[jotheonah]

idk why I always expect people's defense posts to blow me away. They're usually super underwhelming like that one.

[Captain_Frisk]

And I was ninja'd by Axxle on my very first point.

Did it take you 25 minutes to write that defense?

[Dsell]

And I was ninja'd by Axxle on my very first point.

Did it take you 25 minutes to write that defense?

I was writing it while doing other things. I wish I could spend all my time playing mafia, but I can't.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, I had an interesting thought earlier. What if Tables is Mafia Chancellor? (Godfather)

We talked about this a while back.  In theory Tables could also be a investigation immune witch.

Crap - I'm quoting pops again:

You're being picky SFS.  In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy.  The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten.  Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity.  No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles.  So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time.  Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced.  Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.

I'm not sure about the SK immunity selection - but pops has played far more than I have.  As for godfather - I'd find it more plausible if Tables had just simply bussed O... but he drove that bus.  Sure, it's a great place to be - but it wasn't necessary.  I don't think we would have lynched O without Tables.

[Dsell]

idk why I always expect people's defense posts to blow me away. They're usually super underwhelming like that one.

Are there any other points you'd like me to address? I thought my defense was pretty comprehensive given that the case against me is paper-thin.

[Captain_Frisk]

DSell - who do you consider to be the most likely suspects among the O voters and why?

[Dsell]

Also, I had an interesting thought earlier. What if Tables is Mafia Chancellor? (Godfather)

We talked about this a while back.  In theory Tables could also be a investigation immune witch.

Crap - I'm quoting pops again:

You're being picky SFS.  In a game with confirmed sanity cops, an innocent is generally good enough that you don't touch a player at all before LyLo, and even then you probably don't touch him unless he is mega superscummy.  The investigation is valid 90% of the time, based on the probability of investigation immunity. There's probably one immune player per ten.  Good SKs will pick kill immunity, not investigation immunity.  No one ever scumhunts at a 90% level, if people did, we'd play games with 7 town and 5 mafia, and then still have to give the mafia power roles.  So you forced with the only rational choice of trusting the investigation entirely and accepting a loss a 10% of the time.  Which sucks when that 10% has nothing to do with scumhunting but your hand is forced.  Which is why I find town colored investigation immunity to be retarded.

I'm not sure about the SK immunity selection - but pops has played far more than I have.  As for godfather - I'd find it more plausible if Tables had just simply bussed O... but he drove that bus.  Sure, it's a great place to be - but it wasn't necessary.  I don't think we would have lynched O without Tables.

Gotcha. I remember skimming this after coming back from vacation but I was forgetting and wasn't thinking about it in the context of O's lynch.

[Robz888]

I also agree that I don't want to forget about Tables and SFS completely, but their votes don't exactly jive with a narrative of either of them being mafia. Both voted O, didn't they? And Tables really made the lynch O. I said it should be Galzria or O, and Tables totally went O, didn't he? But sure, he could be an investigative immune SK, I suppose. If he is, SFS really screwed us!

I always thought it more plausible that SFS was a mafia who simply chose Tables to claim as innocent in attempt to acquit himself. I mean, I explicitly thought this was not the case, but it COULD be the case. Still, that would make SFS a mafia who quarreled with O and voted O. It can't be ruled out, I suppose, but it can very nearly be ruled out, I think.

Tables as an investigative-immune SK is probably the only remotely plausible scenario there.

As for Dsell's defense, it won't be swaying me--although it would have had to be amazing to change my mind at this point. I'm not sure how he really could defend himself, though, as the case against him is almost contingent on how non-obvscum he's been.

I really think we should lynch him. If he flips town we'll have to look at who he suspected more seriously next round. Which we probably would do anyway, since the people he suspects are mostly the people everybody suspects.

[Captain_Frisk]

As for Dsell's defense, it won't be swaying me--although it would have had to be amazing to change my mind at this point. I'm not sure how he really could defend himself, though, as the case against him is almost contingent on how non-obvscum he's been.

I really think we should lynch him. If he flips town we'll have to look at who he suspected more seriously next round. Which we probably would do anyway, since the people he suspects are mostly the people everybody suspects.

Agreed on both points - but because we have some time - I figured we should interrogate him fist.  Maybe we beat a confession out of him?

Mafia or not - his viewpoint on the O voters will be informative. 

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm catching up, but working in order:

@Pops -

Since I don't trust that your vote really reflects who you think is mafia (see pushing for O lynch while voting for Grujah) - would you care to chime in on the Captain Frisk vs. DSell debate?

I haven't made up my mind.  Robz seems to disagree with me about you.  Dsell has been forgettable all game and I do wonder about the reason behind that.  He's certainly not an exciting lynch.

My instincts still point to C_F, but it's not at all slamdunk.  There's pros to lynching Dsell.  He's the only player alive O really seemed to avoid (Dsell has cited interactions, but I forgot those interactions, and that may be because O and Dsell made them forgettable interactions, e.g. safe play).  If Dsell flips town, O would seem to be the person who doesn't avoid interacting with scumpartners (a minority), and we could look into the porpoises behind his interactions, swimming in hyperactive ecstasy.

And I do have to put some stock in theorel saying Dsell is scum.  I have a pretty null read on Dsell, so a confirmed teammate's opinion would take precedence over mine.  Galzria thought C_F was scum, but Galzria also thought I was scum, so I don't think he was on top of this agme.

Dsell lynch is a good lynch but it's not my lynch.  I guess that's why I didn't talk about it much before prompted.  I do see myself voting on it today.

emphasis mine
So if I've read it correctly:  Dsell is not an exciting lynch, cause your instincts point to Frisk: but DSell is a good lynch, (although you don't want anyone to think its your lynch), but you'll likely join in.

Given that Frisk was asking his question out of concern that your votes don't necessarily reflect who you think is mafia, do you think your answer tells him (and the rest of the players) who you think is mafia and who is not (w/r/t the subset of just Frisk and Dsell)?

[Dsell]

DSell - who do you consider to be the most likely suspects among the O voters and why?

Axxle. By a mile. And I'm baffled by Robz' defense of the fifth spot as "not a bus." But honestly there's only a few choices since several O voters are confirmed or mostly confirmed townies. I don't feel amazingly confident in any of them, though, hence my continued suspicion of two non-voters.

I got a weird feeling about this post:

I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going.  A vote count would be useful.

Vote: O (L-2)
O you might need to claim if you haven't already.

And then his response to me saying that O may be gone seemed like he was sorry for his vote. It felt like he could have been setting up a scumbuddy for a roleclaim. But again, I'm putting a lot more faith in logic this game rather than my gut, so I do not think he should be a lynch target.

[Robz888]

DSell - who do you consider to be the most likely suspects among the O voters and why?

Axxle. By a mile. And I'm baffled by Robz' defense of the fifth spot as "not a bus." But honestly there's only a few choices since several O voters are confirmed or mostly confirmed townies. I don't feel amazingly confident in any of them, though, hence my continued suspicion of two non-voters.

I got a weird feeling about this post:

I'm fine with an O lynch if that's the direction we're going.  A vote count would be useful.

Vote: O (L-2)
O you might need to claim if you haven't already.

And then his response to me saying that O may be gone seemed like he was sorry for his vote. It felt like he could have been setting up a scumbuddy for a roleclaim. But again, I'm putting a lot more faith in logic this game rather than my gut, so I do not think he should be a lynch target.

You know, this is a valid point. It does read like he wanted O to claim something.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip--
...But sure, he could be an investigative immune SK, I suppose. If he is, SFS really screwed us! I may have screwed us by spending the one-shot, or by reporting the results at a bad time (or at all), but I specifically mentioned that inv. immune SK was one of the 3 possibilities.

--snip--

[Robz888]

--snip--
...But sure, he could be an investigative immune SK, I suppose. If he is, SFS really screwed us! I may have screwed us by spending the one-shot, or by reporting the results at a bad time (or at all), but I specifically mentioned that inv. immune SK was one of the 3 possibilities.

--snip--

I didn't mean that you intentionally screwed us, or even that you did the wrong thing... just that as a result of your Tables pick, we were forever screwed. I wasn't blaming you.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - IS IT PERMISSIBLE FOR YOU, AS MOD, TO EDIT YOUR OWN POSTS? THERE SEEM TO BE TWO DIFFERENT VOTECOUNTS LABELED 2-13 (ONE AT POST 1745 AND ONE AT 1792).  THERE ARE ALSO TWO DIFFERENT COUNTS LABELED 2-21 (ONE AT 2049 AND ONE AT 2091).

I recommend strongly against renumbering, but if there are no objections, perhaps the first occurrence of each could be labeled "A of B" and the second labeled "B of B").  I only bring it up because it has screwed me a couple of times researching vote counts.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - IS IT PERMISSIBLE FOR YOU, AS MOD, TO EDIT YOUR OWN POSTS? THERE SEEM TO BE TWO DIFFERENT VOTECOUNTS LABELED 2-13 (ONE AT POST 1745 AND ONE AT 1792).  THERE ARE ALSO TWO DIFFERENT COUNTS LABELED 2-21 (ONE AT 2049 AND ONE AT 2091).

I recommend strongly against renumbering, but if there are no objections, perhaps the first occurrence of each could be labeled "A of B" and the second labeled "B of B").  I only bring it up because it has screwed me a couple of times researching vote counts.

Requested edits have been made.

[popsofctown]

I lost a longer phonepost.

Might is a scummy word when it is in a statement that should be absolute. Always l one claim always axxle knows he knows precious. vote axxle

[Robz888]

I lost a longer phonepost.

Might is a scummy word when it is in a statement that should be absolute. Always l one claim always axxle knows he knows precious. vote axxle

I would like you to try that second sentence again.

I agree that this is better evidence against Axxle than I have yet seen. I don't know that it dissuades me from Dsell. I would like to hear Tables and Jo's thoughts about it.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-9

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
Dsell (3): Robz888, jotheonah, Tables
Axxle (1): popsofctown

Not voting {4}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

NOTE:  I just now realized I'd been saying "Tuesday, July 11" in previous votecounts - forgetting that Tuesday is July 10.  My intent was always for the lynch deadline to be Wednesday, July 11.  Extending the deadline due to the forum outage clears this up:  the lynch deadline is definitely Thursday, July 12.  Apologies for the confusion.

[popsofctown]

Always L_one claim. And axxle knows enough to give that as an academeic firm announcement rather than hushed coaching

[Glooble]

Ok, the forum outage really screwed me. That was the time I was planning on looking over things.

I would be more likely to support an Axxle lynch than a DSell lynch at this point. If it comes down to the wire, we'll see.

[Dsell]

Ok, the forum outage really screwed me. That was the time I was planning on looking over things.

I would be more likely to support an Axxle lynch than a DSell lynch at this point. If it comes down to the wire, we'll see.

What about C_F? I know you think jo is town but I think that C_F is the "duh" lynch here. Really the difference is the people who think C_F is town because he didn't hammer and those who don't think that fact clears or condemns him.

I don't support an Axxle lynch over jo or C_F.

Jo has been saying that he believes me to be town most of this game, and then all of a sudden he's on my bandwagon. For the thinnest of reasons. I think there is a strong chance that he's either mafia or SK, man he's scummy.

[jotheonah]

Ok, the forum outage really screwed me. That was the time I was planning on looking over things.

I would be more likely to support an Axxle lynch than a DSell lynch at this point. If it comes down to the wire, we'll see.

What about C_F? I know you think jo is town but I think that C_F is the "duh" lynch here. Really the difference is the people who think C_F is town because he didn't hammer and those who don't think that fact clears or condemns him.

I don't support an Axxle lynch over jo or C_F.

Jo has been saying that he believes me to be town most of this game, and then all of a sudden he's on my bandwagon. For the thinnest of reasons. I think there is a strong chance that he's either mafia or SK, man he's scummy.

Have I? I think you'll find that, when I've referenced you at all, it's been as a null read, not as a town read. And I've almost always attached the caveat "The fact that I have no read on him really bothers me."  Now that PoE has made me less suspicious, for one reason or another, of others, it's bothering me more. Plus I learn SO MUCH from your flip.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'll not be supporting an Axxle lynch at this point, if for no other reason than he's a new candidate relative to the others that we are seriously discussing.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, I'll do it.  Here's Dsell at L-1.

VOTE: Dsell

[Dsell]

STOP. PLEASE UNVOTE.

[Robz888]

UNVOTE: DSELL

If you have something to say, say it. Then I'm re-voting.

[jotheonah]

Unvote.

There better be a reason for that.

Edit: Ninja'd. But seriously.

[Dsell]

I am a Woodcutter (1-shot vigilante). I have not used my kill yet. Like I've mentioned in the past about the woodcutter, I believe it is much more useful late in the game when there is a good shot at actually hitting mafia. This is why I was quite confident about a serial killer. I am a woodcutter and I know that none of the NKs so far have been from me.

[jotheonah]

And you didn't claim this before now? All the times when we were talking about...

Dammit.

[jotheonah]

No, I get why you didn't claim before hitting L-1, it's fine. It's just that this changes a lot, IMO.

[Robz888]

I am a Woodcutter (1-shot vigilante). I have not used my kill yet. Like I've mentioned in the past about the woodcutter, I believe it is much more useful late in the game when there is a good shot at actually hitting mafia. This is why I was quite confident about a serial killer. I am a woodcutter and I know that none of the NKs so far have been from me.

The interesting thing about this is that I did believe Dsell was a Vigilante since Day 2. When I insisted that the second kill Night 1 was not due to a SK, and I hinted that I suspected there was a Vig, Dsell was the one whom I suspected.

However, the basis of that suspicion was that he would killed Theorel, because he had quarreled with theorel, and theorel would appear scummiest to Dsell.

So while I would have believed the claim, it was contigent upon him having killed Theorel, which he claims he did not. Also, i believe I mentioned already today that I suspected Dsell of being the Vig, so he might just be copying that.

So I don't know if I believe this. He would be the second Woodcutter, after Grujah, who is confirmed.

[jotheonah]

That's the thing. It's a stupid-ass claim for mafia or SK to make right now. Which makes me inclined to believe it's the truth. There are a million better fakeclaims.

[Dsell]

I hoped I wouldn't get to L-1 but I couldn't risk letting mafia quickhammer me.

I don't believe in partial-claiming or hinting. It only puts me at risk for getting NK'd and it's important that I stay alive to the late game to make my kill count.

[jotheonah]

Also, why the heck didn't you Vig me? you've been FoSing/voting me all game, you've never indicated any level of confidence that I'm town, and if I am town you knew I wasn't a PR since day 1.

[Robz888]

Also, why the heck didn't you Vig me? you've been FoSing/voting me all game, you've never indicated any level of confidence that I'm town, and if I am town you knew I wasn't a PR since day 1.

That's a great point. Actually, it makes me disbelieve your claim entirely. Why not kill Jo? Two days of voting for him, and you don't kill him?

[Dsell]

Also, why the heck didn't you Vig me? you've been FoSing/voting me all game, you've never indicated any level of confidence that I'm town, and if I am town you knew I wasn't a PR since day 1.

Because I wanted to save it till the late game. Like I've said. I believe you are scum but I expect myself to have better reads on night 4, for example, than night 1 or 2.

The SK probably has been trying to hit mafia too, and I don't know why my reads would be better than theirs.

[popsofctown]

oh my god

my eyes are bleeding

such bad mafia play

dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that.  Just stick with the softclaim.  Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.

getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.

[Dsell]

oh my god

my eyes are bleeding

such bad mafia play

dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that.  Just stick with the softclaim.  Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.

getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.

I don't believe in softclaims, and if I didn't follow that post up with a claim, I would be back to L-1 faster than you can say "mislynch."

[jotheonah]

oh my god

my eyes are bleeding

such bad mafia play

dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that.  Just stick with the softclaim.  Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.

getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.

you want to cool it with the meta-commentary and get with some useful commentary pops? Do we buy this claim? (Robz doesn't. I'm leaning toward no.)

[Glooble]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

[Axxle]

I believe DSell's claim.  It fits with what I know about his play in other games (like Mafia III).  He really doesn't seem to like to take action as town without being incredibly certain.

I'm obviously still wanting a CF lynch.  Most of my time was taken up by MVI today, but I'll come back tonight with more moreness.

[jotheonah]

How good is Robz's Dsell-Axxle team looking now?

[Captain_Frisk]

I believe DSell's claim.  It fits with what I know about his play in other games (like Mafia III).  He really doesn't seem to like to take action as town without being incredibly certain.

I'm obviously still wanting a CF lynch.  Most of my time was taken up by MVI today, but I'll come back tonight with more moreness.

Clearly MVI is significantly more important at this point - it being at Lylo and all.

[Axxle]

I believe DSell's claim.  It fits with what I know about his play in other games (like Mafia III).  He really doesn't seem to like to take action as town without being incredibly certain.

I'm obviously still wanting a CF lynch.  Most of my time was taken up by MVI today, but I'll come back tonight with more moreness.

Clearly MVI is significantly more important at this point - it being at Lylo and all.

... more to read.  I never said I have my priorities straight.

[Robz888]

Fine, I’ll just say it: I believe there is a Vigilante who killed Theorel. I also think I know who it is. I am picking up on some tells that possibly other people didn’t notice, but yeah. So that’s why I think it. If the person I have in my head is a Vigilante, the Theorel kill makes a lot of sense. I obviously don’t want to out the person, and I could be wrong. So anyway, that’s why I am so sure.

You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.

I said this way back at the start-ish of Day 2. The person I had in my head was indeed Dsell, but only because I believed he killed Theorel. But recently, I confessed this:

I must admit it is only recently that I began to even consider Dsell. He was not an Axxle1 voter. Also--and this is important--I thought he was a Vigilante, off a hunch. It seemed to me he would have killed theorel, because they argued. But now I'm not sure we have anymore Vigs.

SO he could have chosen to claim this, because I did use to believe it. But only because I believed he killed Theorel.

[Dsell]

It seems to me like obviously bad woodcutter play to use your kill right away. I mentioned that when discussing SKs and it's why I also doubt that Grujah used his shot.

[Axxle]

@Robz: FWIW: I thought you were setting yourself up for a claim when you said that.

[Robz888]

It seems plausible to me he picked Vig because he knew I already believed that he was Vig. I did say I thought it was because he killed theorel, but I also hinted there were other reasons I thought he was Vig. There weren't. So, he may have erred in not claiming to have killed Theorel. It's possible he didn't because he's afraid that whoever did kill Theorel--if not Grujah, a true, living Vig, or our Serial Killer pretending to be a Vig--would contradict him.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-10

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
Dsell (2): Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Axxle (1): popsofctown

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Robz888, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Axxle]

I'm pretty sure we have a Bulletproof SK if we have 2 vigs.

[Robz888]

I'm inclined not to believe Dsell's claim. I'm going out for a while, and plan to re-vote him after thinking it over.

[Axxle]

I see no benefit for not claiming one of the kills was him if he saw what you posted.

[Captain_Frisk]

Wow - didn't see DSell's claim (refreshed after a long conference call and started @ the end)

That is a strange claim.  I can believe multiple 1 shot vigs (I guess) - but it does seem somewhat unlikely.  I do agree that there are better fake claims, and I tend to agree that shooting J would make a whole lost of sense - if just for the information and improvement of signal to noise.  (Note: J's signal has been stronger today).  WIFOM.

If I hammer him - where do we go next?  If Mafia - we're rocking.  If town -> what have we learned?

PPE - Looks like the hammer option is gone.

[Dsell]

The major flaw to this idea is that all of the above could apply if it were a vig kill. I imagine both SK and vig want to hit mafia night 2. However, I think a vig kill is highly unlikely because we know for sure that we had 1 woodcutter, which suggests to me that we most likely do not have a full vig. If that's the case we either have a SK or different woodcutters used their 1-shots on the first two nights. That strikes me as unlikely because 1-shot vig is something that seems much more useful towards the endgame when the chances of hitting mafia are much stronger.

I've never been a vig or serial killer (I wouldn't post this if I was this game...) so I don't know exactly what the mindset is but it seems far more strategic to me to use the 1-shot later rather than sooner, when you have a stronger read and a better chance of hitting even at random. To me it seems worth the risk of getting NK'd.

These are really the relevant quotes from me pertaining to the woodcutter idea. I state my strategy as woodcutter, thinking it was pretty obvious that that's the most reasonable strategy as woodcutter. Otherwise, it's a major liability to the town rather than an asset.

In the second quote, I attempt to throw the mafia off my scent. Like I said, I REALLY do not like softclaims and I figured I needed to be around until the endgame to best use my kill. Notice I said, "I've never been a vig or serial killer" but don't mention woodcutters. That's because while it makes no sense to post all that about the serial killer if I was one or the other, it makes PERFECT sense if I'm the woodcutter and have the added knowledge that none of the night 1 and 2 kills were from me.

[Captain_Frisk]

I see no benefit for not claiming one of the kills was him if he saw what you posted.

There's a huge benefit to claiming that he didn't.  If mafia - He can say "keep me alive to use my power in the future".  He can also at any time in the future - take credit for a mafia kill.  For example: he could kill me at night - and say "it was me - I used my 1 shot - we all agreed CF was scum!"  If we command him to use his power - and he doesn't want to (because we target mafia) - he can claim mafia roleblocker.  Finally, by not claiming one of the kills - he gets to drum up witch fear - which would be harder if there were no unexplained kills.

Of course from where i sit on the fence, I'd be pretty pissed if I was DSell and was true-claiming.  One wrong vote and all the sudden I'm getting lynched and I didn't even get to use my power. 

[Dsell]

@Robz, I don't know why you thought I would have killed Theorel. On day 1 I said he was acting scummily by misrepresenting what I said but that I thought he was town.

@Jo from forever ago when I said you had a town read on me before. I went back to check. We were both right. You said you had a town read on me but mostly no read, which made you suspicious of me. So it was a hedge. But sorry, I thought there were more instances of it than that. I lost the link and don't want to go find it again.

[popsofctown]

You don't lynch a player who has any chance of verifying his claim unless you're in Lylo.  Direct his kill for tonight, re assess tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

oh my god

my eyes are bleeding

such bad mafia play

dude, you don't have to hardclaim after a soft claim like that.  Just stick with the softclaim.  Capslocked posts asking for unvotes are rather clear softclaims.

getting him to L-1 so quickly was also bad mafia play to start with.

Pops - please do me a favor and stop being such a jerk.  Not everyone else has played a million times before.  I didn't realize that all caps lock posts were "softclaims" and that the convention is to let them slide.  If DSell is also newish like me - he's not aware of this either.  Most of the people here are not mafiascum veterans - and are unaware of such conventions.

This isn't "I'm sorry, I'm a newb defense".  There are alot of conventions / tells etc. that are out there that aren't immediately visible when searching things like "How do I play mafia / werewolf".

I'd like to suggest we set up a thread to discuss conventions and mafia theory - but I don't think we'll ever be able to post there because of ongoing games and fear of polluting them.

There are so many better ways to get your point across that don't make you sound like a giant insulting ass - and based on your other posts on this forum - you are clearly capable of doing so.

Check this out:

DSell - In the future - as a town PR - you probably shouldn't claim if you don't need to.  Once they unvoted, you should stick with the implied power role claim.  <insert theory reason on why this is a sound strategy>.

[popsofctown]

I do too post like an asshole elsewhere on the forums.  I think.

[popsofctown]

I haven't played with newbies in a long time.  I'm used to assuming suboptimal play is from the subset of players that don't try very hard to reach their win con, or that have heard better advice from others but are too arrogant to take it.

[jotheonah]

Ok, team, I'd love to hear other thoughts on

A) Do you believe Dsell's claim?

and

B) If we decide to give Dsell one more night to use his power, who do we lynch today?

(I'm saying Axxle or CF)

[Robz888]

If we let Dsell live, we MUST agree on who he should lynch tonight.

[jotheonah]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

Isn't this damn near exactly what you just proposed?

B) If we decide to give Dsell one more night to use his power, who do we lynch today?

[jotheonah]

Yeah, you're right, but then I thought about and realized it's a terrible idea if he's scum or SK.  Really pops proposed it.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So, we have to decide on two lynch targets and neither of them can be Dsell? Oh joy. LEt's hand him the game in exchange for a phony role claim.

this

[jotheonah]

Vote: Dsell

Ultimately not buying it.

[Axxle]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

[Axxle]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

And in that case it's probably safe to lynch DSell.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth: Worst that can happen is that we enter LYLO, not lose.

This is only the case if we assume that he's the last of the vigs.

Worst case - we have 6 town - 3 mafia.  We mislynch - 5-3.  Another vig shoots town - 4-3.  Mafia night kill - 3-3.  Game over mafia wins.

Worst case - we have 6 town - 2 mafia - 1 sk.  We mislynch. 5/2/1 - Serial Killer Kills - 4/2/1.  Mafia Kills - 3/2/1.  If there's another vig who can't shoot straight, we also lose (2/2/1)

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - actually we don't lose at 2-2-1 because its theoretically possible for the serial killer to kill the remaining mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Edit 2 - if we do have a vig, we theoretically can stay alive @ 3-3?

[Robz888]

There's no way our town had 3 one-shot vigs. That would be poor design: 5 people could die Night 1. If there is another one-shot vig out there, claim now.

[popsofctown]

There's no way our town had 3 one-shot vigs. That would be poor design: 5 people could die Night 1. If there is another one-shot vig out there, claim now.

[Captain_Frisk]

So here is the talley on the DSell situation:

People who have voted:
RobZ
Jotheonah
SFS
Tables

People who have expressed willingness:
Pops
Axxle
Captain_Frisk

People who have not:
DSell

Other:
Glooble (hasn't said one way or the other - wants to kill his brother)

Is this right?  Anyone have issues with this characterization?

[jotheonah]

Unvote again. I'm not at all sure about Dsell, honestly. He made good points, referencing earlier posts of his that support his claim. Counterclaim ain't happening and I DO believe this setup could have 2 Woodcutters and a Spy (or whatever SFS's 1-shot cop thing was). If Dsell is town, I'm right back to thinking Robz is SK, which would leave ... a Frisk/Axxle mafia?

[jotheonah]

So here is the talley on the DSell situation:

People who have voted:
RobZ
Jotheonah
SFS
Tables

People who have expressed willingness:
Pops
Axxle
Captain_Frisk

People who have not:
DSell

Other:
Glooble (hasn't said one way or the other - wants to kill his brother)

Is this right?  Anyone have issues with this characterization?

Pretty sure pops wants to follow standard procedure and delay lynch for claim w/o counterclaim.

[Captain_Frisk]

But he has voted for him in the past.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote again. I'm not at all sure about Dsell, honestly. He made good points, referencing earlier posts of his that support his claim. Counterclaim ain't happening and I DO believe this setup could have 2 Woodcutters and a Spy (or whatever SFS's 1-shot cop thing was). If Dsell is town, I'm right back to thinking Robz is SK, which would leave ... a Frisk/Axxle mafia?

I can believe 1/2 of that mafia team.

[jotheonah]

Sorry if I look like I'm hedging. Doing a little too much post first, think later. Dsell claim is maddening and I keep going back and forth on it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Observation: If Axxle2 is mafia - does that mean he (Axxle 1+2) wins no matter what?

[popsofctown]

Yes.  He becomes an indifferent force in the game, neither losing nor winning

[Axxle]

People who have expressed willingness:
Axxle

I will not lynch DSell tonight.


PEdit:
@Joth: An Axxle/CF team is laughable, unless you think I'm power-busing.
@CF: Oh, I see you mean history.
@Joth: Your votes are dangerous from this point in the game onwards.  Careful with them.
@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

[popsofctown]

of course, you have to play to your current wincon in the good spirit of things

[jotheonah]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

[Captain_Frisk]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

I think this is an excellent point by Jo.  Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this.  I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

[Axxle]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

I think this is an excellent point by Jo.  Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this.  I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.

It took me 2-5 seconds to realize the potential win/lose scenario.  I also wanted to address your semi-accusation of me not playing to win.  I sometimes too objectively put myself in other people's shoes (eg Axxle1 mentioned something about "If I flip town")

[Robz888]

If not Dsell, I think I would be for lynching Axxle2, for a previously stated reason that I don't remember (I'm a great character witness, folks).

If Dsell is really a Vig, do you realize we are going to have three deaths tonight, assuming an SK and a still living mafia? That's a scary number of deaths. One of them will be Dsell, I assume.

I guess we should not kill Dsell, probably, even if we don't believe him. Let's say he is innocent. Well, the SK might think he's mafia and the mafia might think he's SK. They probably want to kill him--I think?--in case he does not use his power, so they stop him from using in the future--maybe? So then it's almost like we are getting rid of a problematic person for them. If he is mafia or SK, still, the mafia or the SK might get rid of him. So. Right? Is this thinking sound? I'm honestly not sure that it is. The fact that we don't know whether there are one more and a SK, two mafia, or two mafia + SK, makes this really difficult.

[Captain_Frisk]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

No - if dsell is a vig and lives, if he uses his power we can lose.

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

No - if dsell is a vig and lives, if he uses his power we can lose.

That's like saying we can mislynch and lose.  Best thing is to vote for two people.  Lynch one, and vig the other.

[Robz888]

Ugh. Dsell's claim makes this really complicated.

If we have a SK, and it's not Dsell, I would guess that it's Jo, or an investigative-immune Tables. Though they would probably say that it's me.

With 2 one-shot vigs, 1 innocent child, and 1 one-shot cop... could there be 3 mafia and SK? None of these are super powerful. I would think we would need to still have 1 true real cop,doctor, or jailkeeper if that were the case. Though we would hope the Cop knows something by now and would tell us (he should--his odds of surviving another night are super low), and we don't THINK there's been roleblocking (probably just a mafia kill and a SK kill each night--we have an SK at this point), so maybe a doctor?

[Axxle]

Ugh. Dsell's claim makes this really complicated.

If we have a SK, and it's not Dsell, I would guess that it's Jo, or an investigative-immune Tables. Though they would probably say that it's me.

With 2 one-shot vigs, 1 innocent child, and 1 one-shot cop... could there be 3 mafia and SK? None of these are super powerful. I would think we would need to still have 1 true real cop,doctor, or jailkeeper if that were the case. Though we would hope the Cop knows something by now and would tell us (he should--his odds of surviving another night are super low), and we don't THINK there's been roleblocking (probably just a mafia kill and a SK kill each night--we have an SK at this point), so maybe a doctor?

I think it would be balanced enough if the mafia had no power roles.

[Robz888]

If Dsell really is a one-shot vig, and we already had a one-shot vig, there's no way a separate vigilante could be responsible for the extra night kills on Night 1 and 2. So If Dsell is telling the truth--we MUST have a SK. This would mean Grujah probably didn't get to use his kill.

Unfortunately, if Dsell is not telling the truth, it might be because we have a SK.

We probably have a SK, guys.

[Captain_Frisk]

If Dsell really is a one-shot vig, and we already had a one-shot vig, there's no way a separate vigilante could be responsible for the extra night kills on Night 1 and 2. So If Dsell is telling the truth--we MUST have a SK. This would mean Grujah probably didn't get to use his kill.

Unfortunately, if Dsell is not telling the truth, it might be because we have a SK.

We probably have a SK, guys.

We almost certainly do - barring another vig who hasn't claimed.  Wll explain later - trash night

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - I was wrong:  If DSell is mafia - we may not have a serial killer.

Ok - If we assume a scenario with 3 vigs is impossible:

Scenario 1: Tables is telling the truth - and we have 3 vigs.  This is impossible per the assumption.
Scenario 2: Tables is telling the truth - and we have a different serial killer who is responsible for the death(s) of the additional night kill (s).
Scenario 3: Tables is lying and is Serial Killer - and is using the one shot vig for cover of a future kill.  He made the extra night kill(s).  A 2nd vig may have also assisted.
Scenario 4: Tables is lying and is mafia - and we have a serial killer responsible for the night kill(s).
Scenario 5: Tables is mafia - and we have a vig who is responsible for the extra night kill (s).

So - lets give everyone  some time to come in and claim partial vig.  If we agree that 3 vigs is extremely unlikely - then anyone claiming vig results in scenario 3, 4 or 5 - and a guaranteed lynch of scum.

I'll start us off:

I am not a vig.

If I were even a partial vig - I'd claim here, because even if that means I'll be night killed, trading 1:1 scum for town seems like it is in our interest, and I might have doctorly protection coming. 

If no-one claims - then we have a serial killer - because the 5th scenario  (DSell = mafia + Grujah Kill + Other Vig Kill) is off the table.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-11

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
Dsell (2): Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah

Not voting {4}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Robz888

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

Well, things just got interesting. I'm inclined not to believe DSell's claim, but agree we should essentially agree two targets today and let the night help our decision. Reasonable/likely candidates are: Frisk, Axxle and Joth. Pops, Glooble and Robz aren't off the table, but I think they're less good targets personally. Although I suspect, for obvious reasons, if we have a SK it's likely Robz (hey, Robz predicted I'd say that! Does that mean I lose because of OMGUS? Speaking of which I can prove I'm not investigation immune - just have someone shoot me and when I survive you know I picked BP).

I'm still really not sure on Joth, Axxle and Frisk. Frisk I'm now reading more town on, and both Axxle and Joth I can still see as mafia. Especially if we're too believe DSell, which is the more likely mafia? I'm really sitting on the fence here. Is there some useful choices we can make, like 'if X is mafia, shoot Y, otherwise, shoot Z'?

Unvote

[Tables]

All right - I was wrong:  If DSell is mafia - we may not have a serial killer.

Ok - If we assume a scenario with 3 vigs is impossible:

Scenario 1: Tables is telling the truth - and we have 3 vigs.  This is impossible per the assumption.
Scenario 2: Tables is telling the truth - and we have a different serial killer who is responsible for the death(s) of the additional night kill (s).
Scenario 3: Tables is lying and is Serial Killer - and is using the one shot vig for cover of a future kill.  He made the extra night kill(s).  A 2nd vig may have also assisted.
Scenario 4: Tables is lying and is mafia - and we have a serial killer responsible for the night kill(s).
Scenario 5: Tables is mafia - and we have a vig who is responsible for the extra night kill (s).

So - lets give everyone  some time to come in and claim partial vig.  If we agree that 3 vigs is extremely unlikely - then anyone claiming vig results in scenario 3, 4 or 5 - and a guaranteed lynch of scum.

I'll start us off:

I am not a vig.

If I were even a partial vig - I'd claim here, because even if that means I'll be night killed, trading 1:1 scum for town seems like it is in our interest, and I might have doctorly protection coming. 

If no-one claims - then we have a serial killer - because the 5th scenario  (DSell = mafia + Grujah Kill + Other Vig Kill) is off the table.

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

[Captain_Frisk]

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.

[Robz888]

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.

Well, no. We would execute Dsell or the other Vig claimant. One of them would be lying, not necessarily Dsell.

[Axxle]

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.

I don't think we have to go through this whole massclaim of who isn't vig.  If we have another vig they should just say so, otherwise the end.  For the record, I'm not vig, obviously.

[Robz888]

Well, things just got interesting. I'm inclined not to believe DSell's claim, but agree we should essentially agree two targets today and let the night help our decision. Reasonable/likely candidates are: Frisk, Axxle and Joth. Pops, Glooble and Robz aren't off the table, but I think they're less good targets personally. Although I suspect, for obvious reasons, if we have a SK it's likely Robz (hey, Robz predicted I'd say that! Does that mean I lose because of OMGUS? Speaking of which I can prove I'm not investigation immune - just have someone shoot me and when I survive you know I picked BP).

I'm still really not sure on Joth, Axxle and Frisk. Frisk I'm now reading more town on, and both Axxle and Joth I can still see as mafia. Especially if we're too believe DSell, which is the more likely mafia? I'm really sitting on the fence here. Is there some useful choices we can make, like 'if X is mafia, shoot Y, otherwise, shoot Z'?

Unvote

This, except I'm much less sure Dsell is telling the truth (although I see the wisdom in not lynching him). And of course I'm not the Serial Killer, and I'm going to be in a lot of trouble here when inevitably we have to decide who the SK is. But I won't waste our time arguing why I'm not the SK right now.

If we really aren't lynching Dsell, we should lynch Axxle, and tell Dsell to shoot, uh... Jo, probably.

Dsell do you oppose using your shot on Jo? You have voted for him both rounds, so I would think you expect him to turn up mafia or SK, more than anyone else.

[jotheonah]

If we think the SK might be bulletproof, we want Dsell to shoot a mafia suspect instead.

Otherwise he can use potential bulletproof SK to explain if he doesn't manage to effect the asked-for kill.

So I nominate Frisk.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Now it's really getting interesting. A "free' correct answer appeals to me. Are we going to set a time limit for everyone to weigh in?

I don't see how it can be anti-town to participate (hope I haven't screwed up), so I'll go next.  It's not new news to you guys, having used my one-shot, but

I am NOT a vig.

[Axxle]

I don't mind getting lynched/shot as long as we *do* keep DSell alive to take that shot.  I second the proposal for CF to be lynched/shot alongside me.

[Captain_Frisk]

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.

I don't think we have to go through this whole massclaim of who isn't vig.  If we have another vig they should just say so, otherwise the end.  For the record, I'm not vig, obviously.

I just figured we should put it on the record because we're not all online all the time etc. etc. 

How does it help us to know if we have a SK? This is reading like a massive, unashamed rolefish, and I'm not sure what knowledge it's supposed to give us.

If someone claims vig - we can execute DSell without worry.

Well, no. We would execute Dsell or the other Vig claimant. One of them would be lying, not necessarily Dsell.

This isn't a cop claim / counter claim type of situation.  If you were a mafia / SK who was going to counter claim against DSell - you'd be in world of hurt if when he flipped vig.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, we should have a lot more info this time tomorrow. Goodnight all.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Oh, and to be safe I guess I

UNVOTE

[jotheonah]

I'm not a vig, obv. I stand by my day 1 claim, even if most of my day 1 play makes me cringe.

[Axxle]

most of my day 1 play makes me cringe.

(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻

I changed my mind. Can we lynch or shoot me and Joth for the policy lynch he had coming?

Unvote till we figure things out.

(sorry for flipping you tables)

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Axxle

I don't mind getting lynched/shot as long as we *do* keep DSell alive to take that shot.  I second the proposal for CF to be lynched/shot alongside me.

The nightmare tonight scenario here is: 3 Town Kills.  If Axxle2 is truly town - he's volunteering to guarantee 1 of them.  That's offensive play - even worse than J self voting.

Lynch Axxle - Request DSell shoot J.
If J doesn't die - then debate lynching J or DSell. 
If only J dies - then lynch DSell unless someone claims protective role.

PPE - It looks like Axxle agrees with me.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bah - Unvote

Axxle agreeing with this approach makes me angry.

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I don't mind getting lynched/shot as long as we *do* keep DSell alive to take that shot.  I second the proposal for CF to be lynched/shot alongside me.

The nightmare tonight scenario here is: 3 Town Kills.  If Axxle2 is truly town - he's volunteering to guarantee 1 of them.  That's offensive play - even worse than J self voting.

Sorry, what I meant here was basically "Lynch me, not DSell"

[popsofctown]

Axxle is suicidal?

I need a gif of kyon facepalming.

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

[Captain_Frisk]

40 minutes of inactivity == dead thread?  I'm about to go to bed folks - anyone have some insights?

RobZ?  Any megaposts?

[Captain_Frisk]

I tend to agree pops, but man I don't like it.  Please stop being sensible. 

[popsofctown]

No.
You'll get nothing and like it.

[Axxle]

Axxle is suicidal?

I need a gif of kyon facepalming.

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

Can we kill Joth for the same reason though?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-12

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah

Not voting {7}: Dsell, Glooble, Robz888, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle, Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Axxle]

Vote: Joth

[popsofctown]

Joth doesn't know any better.  Burden of Proficiency

Thank you very much for the gif.

[Axxle]

Joth doesn't know any better.  Burden of Proficiency

Thank you very much for the gif.

Its a jpeg >

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

As I was falling asleep, I thought of something I've been trying to remember ever since I posted 2548. Jo voted for himself 1793, and in 1800 he closed with this sentence:

"I'll unvote when Robz is convinced that I'm really ok with dying and not just faking it."


15 minutes and 3 posts later (1803) he unvoted, having heard nothing from Robz, and deflected with:

"But Robz, one peep out of you and it goes right back on."

Now I know we don't really lynch liars, but I thought I'd bring this up for the Day 4's de rigueur discussion and dismissal of a Jo lynch.

I'm not trying to derail the Dsell/Tables situation, just didnt want to not remember again in the morning.  Good night.

[Robz888]

Okay,

If we believe Dsell, and I suppose we should, it seems the only thing to do is lynch Jo, and have Dsell shoot Axxle. That leaves:

Dsell, Robz888, SFS, Tables, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

Let's say we lose SFS and Tables to the SK and remaining mafia member. That leaves, tomorrow:

Dsell, Robz888, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

As long as that group contains no more than 2 scum (probably 1 mafia + plus SK) we are still okay-ish. And if Jo and Axxle were both scum misses, Dsell is probably a liar.

Does this sound good?

[Robz888]

Separately, I should note again that I just... don't... buy the Dsell claim. Even though I should. Don't know what to do about it, though. Killing him seems like a huge risk.

Thoughts?

[Dsell]

If I were mafia, I would have hammered C_F because everyone knows that looking for scum in the hammer is a fallacy...

Axxle being suicidal is really crazy. I see no reason why he would want this is if he's town (or mafia for that matter) so I tend to agree with pops that it's a survivalist tell. So now I actually am pretty suspicious. But that's what he's going for anyway...he wants us to lynch him? Axxle are you being a martyr so your analysis will be proved true? Because I HIGHLY disagree with this idea. We should ALWAYS be trying to lynch scum, I think.

Jo still holds that weird special position where I don't know if he's mafia or SK but it seems likely enough that he's one or the other.

Dsell, Robz888, Pops, Glooble, Frisk

As long as that group contains no more than 2 scum (probably 1 mafia + plus SK) we are still okay-ish. And if Jo and Axxle were both scum misses, Dsell is probably a liar.

See, this is the frustrating thing about the position I'm put in. I have no control (well minimal control) over the lynch, and apparently everyone else (including the mafia!) is going to tell me who to kill at night, and if it doesn't work out, then lynching me is the backup plan. Oh and we may have a roleblocker/jailer/bulletproof SK in the mix! I'm mostly inclined to neither confirm nor deny whether I will perform the agreed-upon kill in order to give the mafia the least information possible. I could probably be convinced to follow blindly but I frankly don't like it. I can say that if I survive the night I will be 100% honest about my night actions tomorrow.

[Robz888]

Dsell, just so you know, if you do not confirm who you are going to kill ahead of time, I will absolutely call upon the town to lynch you right now. So, we need this settled before anything can go forward.

There is no way to verify your actions unless you announce your shot choice ahead of time. I believe it should be Axxle, and we should lynch Jo (as I am more worried about the latter being a one-shot immune SK, and still you, should have shot him last night.)

Why did you not shoot Galzria or Jo last night, again? It was clear that Galzria was a high target to be mafia, something basically everybody thought, and you had your own suspicions about Jo. This is why it's hard for me to believe your claim.

[Dsell]

I didn't shoot Galz or Jo because I was not SURE they were mafia, and didn't want to ruin the one advantage I could give the town. Woodcutter has so much potential to hurt the town that it seems like a no-brainer to me to wait until the end game where both your reads are based on more information AND you simply have a better chance of hitting mafia by virtue of a smaller pool of options. In my opinion, it's better to have not used the shot than to use the shot on town. Even if they seemed extremely scummy to me (and I don't think I can say that about either jo or Galz, quite scummy, but not overwhelmingly so) I think it's always better to wait.

I really don't see how this is not completely obvious. Do you trust your reads so much that you would feel confident to use your single shot on night 1 or 2?

[Robz888]

I didn't shoot Galz or Jo because I was not SURE they were mafia, and didn't want to ruin the one advantage I could give the town. Woodcutter has so much potential to hurt the town that it seems like a no-brainer to me to wait until the end game where both your reads are based on more information AND you simply have a better chance of hitting mafia by virtue of a smaller pool of options. In my opinion, it's better to have not used the shot than to use the shot on town. Even if they seemed extremely scummy to me (and I don't think I can say that about either jo or Galz, quite scummy, but not overwhelmingly so) I think it's always better to wait.

I really don't see how this is not completely obvious. Do you trust your reads so much that you would feel confident to use your single shot on night 1 or 2?

Yes, but you have to use the shot now, and it's not so fundamentally different than if you had used it last night, except now we get in big trouble if it turns out you were lying, or are wrong about who the right kill is. Do you see that? And I think most people would shoot by now. That was my understanding, that most people with the ability to kill usually use it, fairly soon. I think if I were you I would have used it on either Galz or Jo last night.

[Glooble]

Ugh, bad timing. I was at a show last night, got home late, went to bed because I have to be at work in 45 minutes. So in brief:

I am not a vig.

I am currently leaning towards lynching Axxle. I am not sure I believe DSell's claim, but it is supported by his earlier behavior. If it's a mafia gambit, he's laid some groundwork for it.

[Glooble]

And I agree if we let DSell live, we need to assign him a target and lynch him if that person doesn't die. That way if DSell is mafia, the town controls the mafia's kill tonight.

CF seems the best choice to me, merely based on POE.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-13

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Axxle

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Glooble, Robz888, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

And I agree if we let DSell live, we need to assign him a target and lynch him if that person doesn't die. That way if DSell is mafia, the town controls the mafia's kill tonight.

CF seems the best choice to me, merely based on POE.

These posts aren't too far apart.

@RobZ - killing DSell is less "risky" than letting him live - but only because the worst case scenario is that he's telling the truth - but then everything else goes wrong.  (We mislynch someone else, DSell kills an innocent, Mafia Night Kills, Serial Killer Night Kills (and hits town)

The worst case on killing him is:
- Falselynch DSell, Serial Killer Kill on town, Mafia NK on town.

Now, on the flip side - we can also potentially win straight out letting DSell live:
Lynch Mafia, Mafia NK's serial killer, DSell Shoots mafia.

How do we validate DSell's claim?  Lets say he claims to shoot someone - like me. 

Tomorrow - the rest of you wake up, and SFS and I are both dead (town).  This doesn't actually clear DSell.  He could actually still be a serial killer.

There is also the problem of the announcing of target:

- If he is truthful - and announces - mafia / SK can elect to No kill / target the same person to make DSell look like a liar - and incite us to lynch him tomorrow.
- If he doesn't announce - then he doesn't prove anything - because he can then react to the result of the night kills and tailor his claim appropriately.  Let's say hypothetically that tomorrow only 1 person dies.  Dsell can claim his target was blocked - drawing out a role claim.  Sure - DSell will get killed for lying, but he was going to die today anyway - and he got an extra day of life and a roleclaim out of it.

Is this Wine in Front of Me?  It's too early to drink it.

I'm on board with a DSell lynch or an Axxle / Jo lynch / kill combo, but I have to say that I'm nervous on both.  How do I get down from this fence?

[jotheonah]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

Pretty sure he meant "Why didn't Dsell kill jo?" is the big question, not "Why don't we kill jo?"

Given that that's consistent with his posting to date.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why not kill jo is the big question. I totally buy multiple 1-shot Vigs.

Pretty sure he meant "Why didn't Dsell kill jo?" is the big question, not "Why don't we kill jo?"

Given that that's consistent with his posting to date.

Fair point - I imagine that you and I read Jo killing differently, but now that you point it - out - that does make sense.

[jotheonah]

What about having Dsell shoot Robz? I'm still pretty convinced he's SK.

We were all pretty much agreed that the prime kills today were myself or CF, probably CF, when Robz came along and threw Dsell into the mix. Much like yesterday, when he halted the Grujah wagon and redirected to O. If we lynch Dsell, the lynch has Robz's fingerprints all over it.  So IF Dsell is town, Robz seems like a great target to me.

Only the SK has a wincon that wants to hit scum one day and town the next.

If Dsell is scum, then we are maybe enticing him to kill a townie? But that's not so different than what he would have done if we hadn't forced him into a fakeclaim.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Volt - do we really have till Thursday?  You said it would be a 24 hour extension - but i thought the original deadline was Tuesday?  You giving us a break for 4th of July?

[Voltgloss]

@Volt - do we really have till Thursday?  You said it would be a 24 hour extension - but i thought the original deadline was Tuesday?  You giving us a break for 4th of July?

See bottom of my post #2617, quoted below.  Also, note that the deadline is (and has always been) next week, not this week.

Vote Count 3-9

[votecount snipped]

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

NOTE:  I just now realized I'd been saying "Tuesday, July 11" in previous votecounts - forgetting that Tuesday is July 10.  My intent was always for the lynch deadline to be Wednesday, July 11.  Extending the deadline due to the forum outage clears this up:  the lynch deadline is definitely Thursday, July 12.  Apologies for the confusion.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh wow.  I was fully thinking that the deadline was originally today!  Reading comprehension failure.

[Robz888]

What about having Dsell shoot Robz? I'm still pretty convinced he's SK.

We were all pretty much agreed that the prime kills today were myself or CF, probably CF, when Robz came along and threw Dsell into the mix. Much like yesterday, when he halted the Grujah wagon and redirected to O. If we lynch Dsell, the lynch has Robz's fingerprints all over it.  So IF Dsell is town, Robz seems like a great target to me.

Only the SK has a wincon that wants to hit scum one day and town the next.

If Dsell is scum, then we are maybe enticing him to kill a townie? But that's not so different than what he would have done if we hadn't forced him into a fakeclaim.

I have thought about suggesting myself for this, because I fully realize that I will eventually be lynched, unless we have already discovered the SK. Since I believe Jo is probably most likely to be the SK--and he is the one who keeps reminding everybody (along with Tables, ugh) that I am the top SK suspect--I would agree to this, I guess, on the condition that we lynch Jo. If Jo doesn't flip SK, Dsell can shoot me.

The problem here is two-fold. One is a theoretical problem that doesn't actually exist, because I'm actually town, but I'll point it out anyway: the SK is either investigative immune or one-shot immune. If it's me, and I'm one-shot immune, Dsell wouldn't be able to kill me. Again, I know this is not the case, but someone will probably bring it up. Of course, this is the problem no matter who we shoot.

The other problem is that if Jo flips town, great, I have agreed to be killed. I am also town, I die. And that's very possibly town loss right there.

[Captain_Frisk]

If we believe J's theory - there's no point in trying to shoot you - but rather we should lynch you instead.  If we try to shoot you - we don't stop your kill. 

How about:

Lynch J (policy lynch on self preservation)
Shoot Axxle (policy shot as per above)

Lynch you tomorrow for being SK if J isn't?

[Robz888]

If we believe J's theory - there's no point in trying to shoot you - but rather we should lynch you instead.  If we try to shoot you - we don't stop your kill. 

How about:

Lynch J (policy lynch on self preservation)
Shoot Axxle (policy shot as per above)

Lynch you tomorrow for being SK if J isn't?

Yeah, that was my earlier plan. I like it, except you and Dsell survive. But we can't get everything we want...

[Tables]

I'm beginning to think there are too many things here that can go wrong. In particular, has anyone suggested that the plan might not be a good idea (name two people, lynch one, shoot one)? If not, the mafia might know it's to their advantage, they can coax us away from shooting them and/or can prevent the kill. If that's the case, we're essentially being lead to a double-mislynch.

But at the same time... it's DSell himself who seems most unhappy with the plan. I find it hard to put these two pieces of information together. Unless... DSell is mafia, his buddy is happy to blend in, but DSell has realised they won't be able to legitimately make two kills. Which... still doesn't answer why his buddy is acting differently. Hmm. Any thoughts on this, particularly from Robz/SFS/Glooble?

[Robz888]

I'm beginning to think there are too many things here that can go wrong. In particular, has anyone suggested that the plan might not be a good idea (name two people, lynch one, shoot one)? If not, the mafia might know it's to their advantage, they can coax us away from shooting them and/or can prevent the kill. If that's the case, we're essentially being lead to a double-mislynch.

But at the same time... it's DSell himself who seems most unhappy with the plan. I find it hard to put these two pieces of information together. Unless... DSell is mafia, his buddy is happy to blend in, but DSell has realised they won't be able to legitimately make two kills. Which... still doesn't answer why his buddy is acting differently. Hmm. Any thoughts on this, particularly from Robz/SFS/Glooble?

There are too many things that can go wrong no matter what we do. The problem with not doing the two people die plan is huge, though: we will have a mafia nk, and a SK nk, and we will have no idea whether Dsell was lying or not (if we have 3 kills, we can believe him, I guess).

I am also bothered by Dsell's take. For one thing, it baffles me that he didn't kill Jo or Galzria with his night shot. And, I don't like that he seems to want to not tell us who, or whether, he makes the night kill. And obviously he should realize why that's not okay.

Here's another line of possible thinking: It makse the most sense at this point that the Serial Killer was responsible for killing either Theorel/Insomniac and then either Galzria/Grujah, since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills. Who do we think, as SK, would have killed those people? I've maintained that Insomniac and Grujah were the mafia kills, because those were both largely innocent seeming people who the mafia wouldn't want to keep around. Does the SK want to murder scum, rather than town? That would explain the targets. Do those targets indict certain people? I can't really see that it does. Although again, I always thought Dsell was the one who killed Theorel.

[jotheonah]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

[Captain_Frisk]

since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills

This is not a fact.  Grujah could have killed insomniac / theorel - and either collided with a mafia kill / sk kill OR there could have been random protection.

@RobZ
What % chance do you believe DSell is telling the truth?
If he is town, what is the value of his un-used kill vs. the uncertainty that having him alive causes - as I don't believe we can clear him short of an investigative roleclaim. 

Asking myself these questions - I am starting to view lynching DSell as the "safe" play - and then look at everyone's interactions with DSell and his reads in that context on Day 4.  If DSell is SK, we're down to 1 night kill.  Even if he isn't, the worst that we're down to is 3 town - 2 mafia - 1 serial killer after the night.

The fact that DSell doesn't want to announce his kill target makes me slightly suspicious - but I can see both arguments.

[Dsell]

I think I'm ok with announcing the kill ahead of time. I was concerned that doing that and allowing others to decide upon who the kill will be gives too much influence to the mafia, but I can see how it's an impossible-to-verify situation that way. This is going to be confusing for both the town and the mafia either way so I just hope the mafia screws up or reveals their hand along the way. I think what I should do is to take the suggestions of everyone and make a final choice, announcing who I will shoot during the night, before the night starts. So please withhold from hammering the lynchee until I get a chance to make that announcement, because if I'm not on when night starts and I haven't revealed, I'm screwed.

As everyone's pointed out, the thing that worries me most is a bulletproof sk or a roleblocker, who could potentially frame myself and the person I decide to shoot, if they're town. If they're mafia, they'd be able to block but we may be on to them, which would put town in a strong position. If it's a serial killer I'd likely be dead anyway, and if that is the case the lynch is obvious. If they don't kill me or they're not bulletproof town is again in a strong position.

[jotheonah]

Ok, I hate that I have to be the one to bring this up, because it's going to up my scumminess factor 100%

Is it time for a mass fullclaim?

(DON'T DO IT NOW, JUST WEIGH IN ON WHETHER IT'S A GOOD IDEA.)

Basically, if everyone claims we can evaluate the power balance and see how likely Dsell's role claim is to be true. It would also force the scum to either commit to their fake claim early or sacrifice it later, and if we set it up right, it could elicit a scum slip.  I don't know if we should, but it is an option for today and no one was saying it, so I thought I would go ahead and take the bullet.

Of course the big risk is that we have a doctor or a cop or something and we would be outing them.  But the chance to catch all the scum right now might be worth it?

[Robz888]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

And then the less popular lynches...

tables lynch is fables lynch
robz lynch is sobs lynch
gloob lynch is noob lynch

[Dsell]

It's also possible, though very unlikely, that grujah shot the serial killer and used up their one-shot bulletproof.

[Axxle]

Ugh.  I need to catch up with posts (at about #2728) but I want to post this before I get to work. 

I really don't know what I was going for.  I just strongly believed in DSell's claim and it looked like people were going to lynch so some kind of instinct took over that made me want to protect him at all costs.  I know you guys just can't ignore it since it's out there but... bleh.

[Dsell]

The idea that I'm serial killer is pretty dumb. I would not have made that huge argument that pointed the FOS squarely at myself.

[Robz888]

since we know Vigs were not responsible for those kills

This is not a fact.  Grujah could have killed insomniac / theorel - and either collided with a mafia kill / sk kill OR there could have been random protection.

But Grujah only had one-shot. So then the SK collided was was blocked on whatever day Grujah did the kill, and not on the other day? Yeah, that's possible.

@RobZ
What % chance do you believe DSell is telling the truth?
If he is town, what is the value of his un-used kill vs. the uncertainty that having him alive causes - as I don't believe we can clear him short of an investigative roleclaim. 

Asking myself these questions - I am starting to view lynching DSell as the "safe" play - and then look at everyone's interactions with DSell and his reads in that context on Day 4.  If DSell is SK, we're down to 1 night kill.  Even if he isn't, the worst that we're down to is 3 town - 2 mafia - 1 serial killer after the night.

The fact that DSell doesn't want to announce his kill target makes me slightly suspicious - but I can see both arguments.

Frisk, I can't put a % chance on it. I'm probably 55-45 in favor of him being a liar. I really don't know, though. At this point I think any combination is possible. There's just nothing to rule out, anymore. We could have Tables the Sk and Jo and Pops mafia. We could have Dsell and Axxle mafia and Frisk the SK. We could have Jo the SK and Axxle and Frisk the mafia.

I think it's going to be easier to pick up the pieces tomorrow when, like, a quarter of us are dead.

A good reason to keep Dsell alive anyway is that it puts the mafia and SK in an awkward position regarding him. SK doesn't know whether he's mafia or town, mafia doesn't know whether he's SK or town. There's a chance he doesn't use his shot, in which case they would regret not killing him up, but neither the mafia nor SK want to overlap a kill with each other. So do they go for him? If he dies, or there are three deaths, we learn the truth about him. Do they not kill him, or anyone, in order to make him look suspicious? But if he's neither, and both groups do that, we could actually have a night of no deaths! Which is good.

So I think keeping Dsell alive might be worth the nighttime consternation it causes our enemies, regardless of what role it is. It might result in us getting lucky.

[jotheonah]

ummmmmm did people see my post? because of all the possible reactions, one I definitely didn't see coming was it being completely ignored...

[Captain_Frisk]

The idea that I'm serial killer is pretty dumb. I would not have made that huge argument that pointed the FOS squarely at myself.

I'm not at all convinced this is what you are, but it's not an unreasonable theory. @L-1 - you felt the need to claim something.  At least a vig variant would give you an excuse to use your powers at least 1 more time.  Full vig might have been a safer claim as a serial killer - although it would be harder to keep justifying why you are alive night after night if you are mafia.

@jotheonah - yes I did skip over that post.  I've never been involved in a massclaim - so I have no opinion.  Looked pretty good in M3 though.

[Dsell]

I think mass roleclaim is bad. In Mafia III it only worked because we had Axxle as rolecop.

[Captain_Frisk]

the big problem is, unlike yesterday, we don't have a rhyming solution.

dsell lynch is swell lynch
jo lynch is go lynch
pops lynch is tops lynch
axxle lynch is ... factual lynch?

"pops lynch is tops lynch" is pretty catchy.

And then the less popular lynches...

tables lynch is fables lynch
robz lynch is sobs lynch
gloob lynch is noob lynch

Hey - don't leave me out

Frisk lynch is ...risk lynch?  Wisk lynch?
SFS lynch is ... orange.

[jotheonah]

I actually thought about posting "Frisk lynch is risk lynch" but I was afraid it might actually catch on, and I do kinda want to lynch you still (sorry).

[Captain_Frisk]

It's also possible, though very unlikely, that grujah shot the serial killer and used up their one-shot bulletproof.

Along these lines - the mafia may have done the same thing.  I guess you didn't notice any of your night kills failing?

[Robz888]

Frisk lynch is bisque lynch. Anyway...

Jo, I've thought about the massclaim option. I'm sort of supportive of it, but it's probably a bad idea. Because 2-3 of us could just be lying. And it does tell the mafia and SK who to target. Of course, I'm not sure that either the mafia or SK could claim any role, because they would fear being murdered by the other.... Which now that I think about it, makes Dsell's claim more likely. If he's lying, and is a scum, whichever scum group he isn't a part of may just kill him. Maybe? Gosh, I wonder if they're more confused than we are.

We should PROBABLY wait to next round for massclaim. I don't think it helps us out here.

[Glooble]

SFS lynch is less-than-best lynch.

I don't think a mass roleclaim would reduce confusion. If we still have two more mafia and a SK (I know we might only have one mafia, but this is worst case scenario) and all the scum fakeclaim, then the town has a lot of potentially very confusing information parsing out which claims are true. The SK might also be confused, but the mafia more than like get to figure out the remaining town power role. If we have one. You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.

Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights. The only reason I could think scum wouldn't target them (aside from the staggeringly unlikely scenario where Tables is the Godfather) is fear of a protective role. So if we tell the scum that there is no protective role, one of those two will probably die tonight. We should be aware of that.

[Glooble]

Posted this before I saw Robz's reply, just fyi. Also, what I said about "why not kill jo" did indeed mean "why didn't DSell kill jo?" but I understand how my wording was unclear.

[popsofctown]

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

[Robz888]

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

Yes, yes absolutely. Yes.

[Captain_Frisk]

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

[Dsell]

@pops, that's pretty much what I meant, anyway. I just want to do a formal announcement so that it's clear or in case there is no consensus.

[Robz888]

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ Testy!

[Robz888]

@RobZ Testy!

Well yes, I am testy. I cannot be the mafia, it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise. I have admitted that I could be the Serial Killer, and I understand why my speeches have made people think I'm the SK. Emphatically, I cannot be the mafia.

New plan: Lynch Jo, shoot Frisk.

[jotheonah]

0-2 pops
3-5 me
6-8 Frisk

9, try again.

Lynch Axxle, Dsell shoots whoever the last digit of this post's timestamp lands on.

[jotheonah]

pops it is.

[Captain_Frisk]

I have thought about suggesting myself for this, because I fully realize that I will eventually be lynched, unless we have already discovered the SK. Since I believe Jo is probably most likely to be the SK--and he is the one who keeps reminding everybody (along with Tables, ugh) that I am the top SK suspect--I would agree to this, I guess, on the condition that we lynch Jo. If Jo doesn't flip SK, Dsell can shoot me.

The problem here is two-fold. One is a theoretical problem that doesn't actually exist, because I'm actually town, but I'll point it out anyway: the SK is either investigative immune or one-shot immune. If it's me, and I'm one-shot immune, Dsell wouldn't be able to kill me. Again, I know this is not the case, but someone will probably bring it up. Of course, this is the problem no matter who we shoot.

The other problem is that if Jo flips town, great, I have agreed to be killed. I am also town, I die. And that's very possibly town loss right there.

I did agree with you previously - but then it was this post above that I didn't like.  The semi-agreeing to be killed thing felt wrong to me - for the same reasons that we've been giving Jonah and Axxle. 

[Captain_Frisk]

@J:  Just because it worked for O in M3 doesn't mean it works here.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

ummmmmm did people see my post? because of all the possible reactions, one I definitely didn't see coming was it being completely ignored...

Have you not been paying attention?  You wont be discussed again until Day4. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh RobZ - I can never stay mad at you - thanks for remining me about the Grujah derail.  You'd think I'd remember because that was my wagon - and I jumped off it in large part due to your compelling analysis of how scummy the wagon looked.  It really does seem like derailing an innocent lynch and then early wagoning a partner would be pretty poor mafia play...  I will amend my previous statement to say that I don't really suspect RobZ of being mafia. 

I reserve the right to think that you are scum.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@RobZ Testy!

Well yes, I am testy. I cannot be the mafia, it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise. I have admitted that I could be the Serial Killer, and I understand why my speeches have made people think I'm the SK. Emphatically, I cannot be the mafia.

New plan: Lynch Jo, shoot Frisk.

Now THAT I can get solidly behind.

[Robz888]

Oh RobZ - I can never stay mad at you - thanks for remining me about the Grujah derail.  You'd think I'd remember because that was my wagon - and I jumped off it in large part due to your compelling analysis of how scummy the wagon looked.  It really does seem like derailing an innocent lynch and then early wagoning a partner would be pretty poor mafia play...  I will amend my previous statement to say that I don't really suspect RobZ of being mafia. 

I reserve the right to think that you are scum.

For the same reason, Tables cannot be the mafia Godfather. I narrowed it down to O or Galzria, and Tables picked O.

[jotheonah]

@J:  Just because it worked for O in M3 doesn't mean it works here.

It's not a terrible idea, rolling the dice. it's hard for the mafia to sway.

[Robz888]

Okay, here are all the people I wish were dead:

Frisk, Jo, Dsell, Axxle

Of those, here are the ones I prefer get lynched, because I think they have a higher likelihood of being one-shot immune SKs:

Jo, Dsell

So we lynch Jo, tell Dsell to kill either Frisk or Axxle. Probably, we should have him kill whichever person he was least comfortable killing, just in case Dsell is mafia. I would have to look back and see.

Does this sound like a plan? Jo and Dsell CANNOT be a scum team, btw. Nor can Jo and Axxle, probably.

[jotheonah]

I don't love this plan. Mainly because I can't condone killing town. I seem to recall Glooble and Pops still think I'm town, so if they consent to it than I will be a good little goat (not that I have a choice really).

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, here are all the people I wish were dead:

That's just mean.

As for the plan - I think I agree - but primarily because I believe DSell wants to kill me over Axxle.  That gets my most likely suspects out of both pools (double bad voters and potential bussers)

[jotheonah]

also, I object to letting Robz run the show.

[Captain_Frisk]

also, I object to letting Robz run the show.

Who would you propose instead?

[jotheonah]

a random number generator. Or, as pops suggested, group consensus.

If it has to be a person, I want tables.

[Robz888]

a random number generator. Or, as pops suggested, group consensus.

If it has to be a person, I want tables.

Tables is just as likely to be mafia as I am (zero chance), and just as likely to be SK (some chance). But anyway, I agree that he should also condone the plan. And obviously a majority of people should condone it.

[Glooble]

I would prefer CF lynch and nightkill Axxle, but I understand the logic for jo, and if Tables condones it, I won't fight it. What I said earlier about my being wary of my own read on jo still stands. I'm just not sure I trust myself at this point.

[Robz888]

I would prefer CF lynch and nightkill Axxle, but I understand the logic for jo, and if Tables condones it, I won't fight it. What I said earlier about my being wary of my own read on jo still stands. I'm just not sure I trust myself at this point.

Well, lynch Frisk, shoot Jo is an option. I'm worried Jo is immune, though. Maybe lynch Frisk, shoot Axxle? Help!

[Tables]

...You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.

Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights....

Just two things. Firstly, it's not THAT likely a Doc/JK has made a save yet. But we don't know how many kill attempts there've been. It's probably something like a 30% chance they have, and that's assuming they're a full doctor. Secondly, there's only been one night since I SFS claim-cleared me. Slow game.

I think, personally, the best two candidates are Joth and Axxle. DSell was my main suspect (and still is) but assuming he's town, I think Joth/Axxle are the next two. So if I have to lead the charge, I say lynch Joth today and DSell has to shoot Axxle. But I'm far, far from convinced by it.

[jotheonah]

Sounds like jo lynch is go lynch.

[Robz888]

...You'd think if we had a doctor/jailkeeper they would have blocked at least one kill by now, but with mafia, Sk, and multiple one-shot vigs, maybe they did.

Another thing is, right now even if we don't have a doctor or jailkeeper, I'm willing to bet the fear of such a role has saved Tables and SFS's lives the past few nights....

Just two things. Firstly, it's not THAT likely a Doc/JK has made a save yet. But we don't know how many kill attempts there've been. It's probably something like a 30% chance they have, and that's assuming they're a full doctor. Secondly, there's only been one night since I SFS claim-cleared me. Slow game.

I think, personally, the best two candidates are Joth and Axxle. DSell was my main suspect (and still is) but assuming he's town, I think Joth/Axxle are the next two. So if I have to lead the charge, I say lynch Joth today and DSell has to shoot Axxle. But I'm far, far from convinced by it.

Okay, since I know that Tables is also not the mafia, it is comforting that his thinking here is basically the same as mine.

Dsell, do you agree to shoot Axxle? If you say yes, I will vote for Jo and we can move this along.

Is everybody else, other than Jo and Axxle presumably, okay with this? I think SFS is, I know he wants Jo dead. I'm not sure where Pops and Glooble stand.

[Axxle]

Massclaim is bad today, it might work tomorrow though.

Shouldn't we have more of a plan than "Lynch someone, shoot someone else"?  I think having a condition on whether that person flips town or not should have a big impact on who we should shoot.  Like if we lynch Joth, and he's scum I'd rather shoot Glooble or pops more than anyone else.

[Captain_Frisk]

Is everybody else, other than Jo and Axxle presumably, okay with this? I think SFS is, I know he wants Jo dead. I'm not sure where Pops and Glooble stand.

I don't have any plans that I view as more likely, so I'm ok with it.  We already have J's roleclaim as well.

[Robz888]

Is everybody else, other than Jo and Axxle presumably, okay with this? I think SFS is, I know he wants Jo dead. I'm not sure where Pops and Glooble stand.

I don't have any plans that I view as more likely, so I'm ok with it.  We already have J's roleclaim as well.

So me, Tables, and Frisk support the plan. Dsell needs to support the plan and commit to shooting Axxle.

[Captain_Frisk]

Green image says DSell is online.

[jotheonah]

I want pops to weigh in as well. It would be sort of nice to have one person remind you all that I'm town.

[Robz888]

Green image says DSell is online.

Eh, that doesn't mean much. I'm permanently logged in, because I'm always logged in on my phone. But I'm not always here, or with my phone. Like, I'm going for a run now, so won't be back for a bit.

[Captain_Frisk]

I want pops to weigh in as well. It would be sort of nice to have one person remind you all that I'm town.

Pops has been oddly quiet.  I don't like it.

[Glooble]

I really, really can't buy jo being mafia. His similarity to O's playstyle - I can't buy they'd both play like that. But I can sort of buy jo as an SK. Currently I think Robz the more likely SK. So I don't want to lynch jo. I do think he's town.

You could sell me on CF/Axxle. If you want to try and sell me on this plan, tell me what jo's flip tells us? Because his erratic play has made suspecting him completely defensible, so I don't think there's anyone who would look more or less scummy based on jo's flip.

I want to know why jo's death helps us if he flips town.

Actually, I think I figure that out myself. Forgive me if this is a little rough.

So if we kill jo and he comes up town, and DSell's kill on Axxle goes through, we're left with

DSell - we'll know one way or another, see below
Robz - probably the SK if jo isn't
CF - scum suspect #1
me - I know I'm town
pops - next most likely scum by POE?
Tables - basically confirmed town
SFS - basically confirmed town

Minus whoever the two scumteams kill (if DSell is telling the truth) or whoevever the other scumteam kills (If DSell is scum), unless Axxle or J is the serial killer. So we'll have 5 - 7 people left, and worse case scenario 3 scum. Either way, we'll know one way or the other if DSell is scum. If he is, we lynch him, and we might still have 2 scum to deal with, but we'll have a lot of information to find them. But they'll kill someone the night we lynch Dsell. So then we'll have 3 to 4 people left and up to 2 scum. If those two are on the same team, we lose. But I think our chances of not hitting the other scum during that time seem pretty low to me. Chances are even if we double mislynch we can still pull a win.

I have a scum read on Axxle, and I accept that jo might be SK, but I can't say I'm one hundred percent comfortable with this plan. At least I can say if jo flips town, Robz is most likely SK. That's not nothing.

The more I think about it, the more I can get behind this.

I'm in. Sorry for the wall-o-text.

[Robz888]

@Glooble. I'm by no means convinced the plan is good. And I'm going to spend tomorrow convincing you I'm not SK. But maybe we'll flip the SK by morning! Anyway, all aboard for the plan. Dsell, you good to shoot Axxle? Axxle, if you have a role, now is the time. Jo same, but he's already claimed VT.

[jotheonah]

in a hurry much Robz?

[Axxle]

@Glooble. I'm by no means convinced the plan is good. And I'm going to spend tomorrow convincing you I'm not SK. But maybe we'll flip the SK by morning! Anyway, all aboard for the plan. Dsell, you good to shoot Axxle? Axxle, if you have a role, now is the time. Jo same, but he's already claimed VT.

I'm not going to claim unless we have a clear town consensus.  You trying to be the new leader is disconcerting.

[Robz888]

in a hurry much Robz?

My wincon is Night 3 begins before 6:00 PM EDT. No hurry.

I'm just excited, that's all. This is a pretty suspenseful game.

[popsofctown]

i've become more interested in iso since I hit 30/31.  Sorry for not keeping up guys

[Captain_Frisk]

in a hurry much Robz?

My wincon is Night 3 begins before 6:00 PM EDT. No hurry.

I'm just excited, that's all. This is a pretty suspenseful game.

No doubt.  I wake up every day happy to be alive... in this thread.

[popsofctown]

Axxle halting premature roleclaims on himself after encouraging one from O is noted (if I recall right)

Jo should not be touched.  His effing twin says he's town.  Unless that twin flips scum, it's hand-off.  I don't know how many times I have to say it.

Axxle / Frisk death would be delicious, they are my highest of suspects. We should probably have Axxle be the one that gets shot, he's a bit less in the SK psychological profile

[Robz888]

Axxle halting premature roleclaims on himself after encouraging one from O is noted (if I recall right)

Jo should not be touched.  His effing twin says he's town.  Unless that twin flips scum, it's hand-off.  I don't know how many times I have to say it.

Axxle / Frisk death would be delicious, they are my highest of suspects. We should probably have Axxle be the one that gets shot, he's a bit less in the SK psychological profile

I very much agree with the point about Axxle. Still disagree with you on Jo.

[Axxle]

Axxle halting premature roleclaims on himself after encouraging one from O is noted (if I recall right)

Jo should not be touched.  His effing twin says he's town.  Unless that twin flips scum, it's hand-off.  I don't know how many times I have to say it.

Axxle / Frisk death would be delicious, they are my highest of suspects. We should probably have Axxle be the one that gets shot, he's a bit less in the SK psychological profile

I did encourage one from O, but I think we were close to the deadline at that point right?

Your only reason for not killing J is because of the twinclaim? Should we kill Glooble to make sure?

[Axxle]

Your only reason for not killing J is because of the twinclaim? Should we kill Glooble to make sure?

Also, I have a brother, not a twin, but pretty close.  I would not put a huge amount of weight in being able to read him in a game I've had little experience with when he's had a substantial amount.

[popsofctown]

Yes, I am less opposed to killing Glooble.

No, the suggestion of "killing him to make sure" does not make me feel better about you

[Dsell]

Sorry, I've been on my ipod reading and posting most of the day because I've been getting ready for a Fourth of July party. On the compy now for a bit.

My top mafia suspects are:
Captain_Frisk
Jo & Axxle pretty evenly


My top SK suspects are:
Robz & Jo pretty evenly


I would rather lynch the person who has the best chance of being SK because of the chance that they're bulletproof. Since Jo is high in both categories, I think he's the ideal lynch. I would rather try to shoot mafia, so I would go with C_F or Axxle. I would choose C_F myself but I will shoot whoever is decided upon. Robz has a fair chance of being bulletproof so if Jo is not SK I would not want to shoot Robz, but I do think it makes it extremely likely that he's SK.

So basically, yes, I'm ok with the agreed-upon plan.

Minus whoever the two scumteams kill (if DSell is telling the truth) or whoevever the other scumteam kills (If DSell is scum), unless Axxle or J is the serial killer. So we'll have 5 - 7 people left, and worse case scenario 3 scum. Either way, we'll know one way or the other if DSell is scum.

This is not true! The fact that I had to reveal today means that I can be sabotaged by a mafia roleblocker or a bulletproof SK. I'm pretty screwed as it is but this line of reasoning completely ignores the fact that it's possible for me to be telling the truth AND for my shot to be sabotaged.

[Robz888]

Okay, Dsell. I am glad you have confirmed the plan. Here goes nothing.

Vote: Jotheonah

[Captain_Frisk]

The plan is on:

Vote: Jotheonah

Going out for a bit - will be iphone lurking in the event of need to unvote for some reason (someone cop claims i guess?)

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-14

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (3): Axxle, Robz888, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {4}: Dsell, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Dsell]

Vote: jotheonah let's not hammer him until he has a chance to respond though.

[Dsell]

Unless I get any serious objections and brings them to us quickly (before the hammer), I will be using my shot on Axxle tonight.

[Dsell]

Sorry about the horrible grammar in that last post, I hate iPod posting.

[Axxle]

Unless I get any serious objections and brings them to us quickly (before the hammer), I will be using my shot on Axxle tonight.

if we lynch Joth, and he's scum I'd rather shoot Glooble or pops more than anyone else.

Of course, my opinion hardly matters.  I'm VT FWIW.

[jotheonah]

Not sure what you want from me. Don't trust Robz. If you kill me and we don't get a town win I'll be pissed.

[jotheonah]

I've already done the "self-vote" and the "please don't lynch me".  What CAN I do for an encore?

I already claimed mafia...

[Glooble]

Ok, Tables and SFS are offline. Is everyone seriously expecting me to hammer my brother? I mean, I guess there's no real moral difference between doing it myself and waiting for someone else to, but seriously?

Should we wait for last thoughts from anyone else, or should I drop it?

[jotheonah]

As the lynch mob advanced upon him, he wondered aloud "How could I raise the bar of crazy? What can I do to end this game that's crazier than anything I've done thus far?"

A thought entered his head. A story he had heard about another traveller in another town, who had a strange way of talking. Many called him crazy for that. He would do the same. He would narrate his demise in the third person!


...nope this is stupid.

[Glooble]

As Glooble turned the noose over in his hands, he wondered at the absurdity of a town that would require a man to lynch his own brother. But what else could he do? The town, it seemed, had decided. If he didn't do it, Tables certainly would. Indecision paralyzed him. He fell to his knees in despair.

This is silly.

[Dsell]

Unless I get any serious objections and brings them to us quickly (before the hammer), I will be using my shot on Axxle tonight.

if we lynch Joth, and he's scum I'd rather shoot Glooble or pops more than anyone else.

Of course, my opinion hardly matters.  I'm VT FWIW.

Sorry Axxle, I meant to include you in that post about whether people have objections.

[jotheonah]

...Suddenly everyone was run over by a speeding bus.

"The eagles!" exclaimed Bilbo. "The eagles are coming!"

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Just so I'm clear, we are lynching Jo, and Dsell is shooting who exactly?

Also, when Dsell shoots X, if X doesnt die, what comes next?  I need someone to spell both of these out for me, cause I'm ready for Jo to go, but I feel like my vote is also a vote for the plan in toto.

[Dsell]

I don't believe there's a solid plan, and I'm not sure if everyone would agree on one if there were. There are too many variables: How the lynchee flips, who the mafia and SK kill IF anyone, how they flip, and how the person I shoot flips if the shot is successful.

[Dsell]

Oh, but the current plan is for me to shoot Axxle.

[Captain_Frisk]

Just so I'm clear, we are lynching Jo, and Dsell is shooting who exactly?

Also, when Dsell shoots X, if X doesnt die, what comes next?  I need someone to spell both of these out for me, cause I'm ready for Jo to go, but I feel like my vote is also a vote for the plan in toto.

We're lynching Jo - and DSell is shooting Axxle.

Here is what we learn with the Axxleflip:

If Axxle + 1 other person dies - then we don't learn much.  DSell may still be mafia and a serial killer killed someone else.  DSell may be a serial killer - and the mafia killed someone else.  DSell may be telling the truth, and there was a random protection.

If Axxle + 2 other people dies - then DSell is about as confirmed town as you are (for it to be false - there would need to be another vig who didn't claim today and then shot tonight)

If Axxle + nobody dies - then DSell is likely mafia - and we lynch him.

If Axxle doesn't die - then we have a wifom debate as to whether DSell was Roleblocked or if Axxle is a Bulletproof Serial Killer.  Presumably a doctor won't be protecting Axxle.

There is no plan after that point - we will all point fingers at eachother, debate the finer points of wine that is in front of us, and probably mass roleclaim.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Jo, since you apparently ARE about to die, who do you think we should shoot and why?

Follow up question: If that someone is not Axxle or Frisk, then between Axxle and Frisk, who would you shoot, and why?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz and Tables:  Do both of you believe Axxle is a better choice to shoot than Frisk?  If so, why?

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - Your questions indicate that you believe I am a better choice than Axxle.  Why?

[popsofctown]

Why the heck are you guys lynching Jo? 

This is dumb.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why the heck are you guys lynching Jo? 

This is dumb.

Well - we're going to shoot Axxle2 too - so you get something too... right?

[popsofctown]

Yeah.  I guess. 
It's still dumb.  If you really want to lynch a wundertwin, Glooble should be first

[Captain_Frisk]

Yeah.  I guess. 
It's still dumb.  If you really want to lynch a wundertwin, Glooble should be first

J has the bad voting history and the bad behavior (self voting).  Glooble has nothing except being an eager beaver on wagons.

[Tables]

I have to agree with Pops here. Give me time. Someone unvote in the meantime just to give me time to collect my thoughts

[Dsell]

Unvote

[Tables]

Okay, Glooble, you're online. You might have answered this before, but I really need to know, exactly how confident are you that Joth is town, just based on your gutread? What do you make of his playstyle difference from yesterday to today?

[Tables]

Thanks, DSell. I'm still looking over some other stuff so I might just come back and throw the L-1 vote on myself, but ideally I'd like Glooble to answer that question first.

[Axxle]

If Joth is town then CF is town because he had the option to hammer yesterday.

[Axxle]

And the entirety of the Joth wagon will look scummier.  I think Joth is both likely to be mafia and in the unlikely event he's not, will give us some nice information.

[Axxle]

And the entirety of the Joth wagon will look scummier.  I think Joth is both likely to be mafia and in the unlikely event he's not, will give us some nice information.

*his Day2 wagon will look scummier

[Glooble]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

[Axxle]

If Joth is town then CF is town because he had the option to hammer yesterday.

And the entirety of the Joth wagon will look scummier.  I think Joth is both likely to be mafia and in the unlikely event he's not, will give us some nice information.

This is the situation I'm referring to, although I doubt you guys forget:

Vote Count 2-13A
jotheonah (5): Dsell, Tables, Robz888, Axxle, Galzria

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

[Robz888]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

[Tables]

Hmm... well, at this point, I'm actually concerned about the speed Robz tried to push things, and that's still reasonable confidence; given Glooble is town then there's a 90% chance Joth is town, assuming Glooble is assessing things well... and Axxle seems happy to push things along now as well.

There's a lot of evidence on both sides of this, methinks. I'm hesitant to do it, but Vote: Joth. I'm still leaning towards town for Frisk and SFS, neutral on Pops, Glooble and Robz (I think he has a decent chance of being the SK, but very low chance of being mafia), scum (currently) on DSell, Joth, Axxle. Just so people know, in case I bite it during the night.

[Tables]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

Coming from you, Robz...

[Axxle]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

Coming from you, Robz...

And with that post we have exactly the same number of posts in this thread as WW has in the entire forum (minus the few he has in Forum Games I guess).  Yay!

[Dsell]

I'm going to be leaving soon for maybe an hour or two, so I'm not going to hammer right now, to allow for more discussion to happen while I'm gone. If someone else wants to hammer that's fine.

[popsofctown]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE

[Captain_Frisk]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

So SFS (town) and 7 other players (presumably you know your own aligment) - probably 3 scum  - and you're 70% sure he's not.  So your read on him is slightly lower than average scumchance than average.

Glooble - what makes you so confident on him vs. myself and pops?  What differentiates us in your mind?  We have the same voting history on the big ones - pops made a show of voting for O (but forgot to lynch him) - J tried to kill himself - and I'm the PoE of the group?

[Axxle]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE

That's actually assuming too much.  They never claimed identical twins.

[Axxle]

How confident? I admit its been waning. At this point, I would say I'm 90% confident he's not mafia. Maybe 70% confident he's town. Other 20% for SK possibility.

70% confident he's town? Strikes me as ludicrous overconfidence.

THEY HAVE THE SAME EFFING DEOXYRIBONUCLEIC ACID SEQUENCE

That's actually assuming too much.  They never claimed identical twins.

No wait, they did.

[Axxle]

I also find it hilarious that they also both claim "worst mafia ever" around the same time as the twinclaim.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.

[Glooble]

I don't have time to go pull quotes, but I'll try and answer your question real quick.

pops is a big ol' question mark for me. I still don't buy that he forgot he wasn't voting for O, and he had some scummy interactions with Galz day 2, when Galz proposed Robz was SK. But his attacks on O are way too aggressive to be bussing. For me that clears him, or at least makes him the least scummy of the three options you gave.

Putting aside any "reads" or "gut feelings", what makes you feel scummier than jo to me is just the fact that I think O and jo both being mafia would be monumentally stupid strategy for scum to pursue.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.

Since you're here - will you answer mine?

[popsofctown]

lynch frisk and shoot axxle.  It's so easy.

[Captain_Frisk]

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

Explain to me why you're ok with Axxle death (for almost self voting), but you're not ok with J death (for actually self voting).

Difficulty: no twinclaim - which Glooble has even backed off of.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-15

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (4): Axxle, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Tables

Not voting {3}: Glooble, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[popsofctown]

Glooble is still 70% sure, good enough for me.  90% sure it's not mafia.


And joth is scummy for self voting, because it's an intrinsically scummy behavior.  It's just not the only thing on his scorecard, he comes out positive.

[Dsell]

And joth is scummy for self voting, because it's an intrinsically scummy behavior.  It's just not the only thing on his scorecard, he comes out positive.

I don't see how this is true, but you're not going to explain it anyway. I am, however, willing to lynch Frisk, shoot Axxle if that's what's agreed on.

[popsofctown]

Do you know I'm not going to explain it because I already did when I condemned Axxle for the behavior?  Because that should be the only basis for the prediction. 

[popsofctown]

does anyone like my avatar?

[Dsell]

I can't quite tell what your avatar is. It's distinctive, though!

I think you thought I was talking about the first half of that quote. I was talking about the second half. I don't believe that his scorecard comes out ahead.

[Captain_Frisk]

Do you know I'm not going to explain it because I already did when I condemned Axxle for the behavior?  Because that should be the only basis for the prediction.

Can you find the quote in which you already explained it?

Here's are your quotes from the period:

of course, you have to play to your current wincon in the good spirit of things

Axxle is suicidal?

I need a gif of kyon facepalming.

kinda have to lynch Axxle now.  Self voters flip bad more often then not, and the only explanation for a player trying to cause their own death is WIFOM so that they actually survive - which then becomes a survivalist tell.

No.
You'll get nothing and like it.

Joth doesn't know any better.  Burden of Proficiency

Thank you very much for the gif.

Dsell needs to have his nightkill selected for him, and then perform it.  Announcing it isn't enough, scumDsell would just announce a townie's name.  Lynches are democratically decided the way this will be, town overall exert more control. 

If he doesn't want to do it he can die.

I'm guessing you're referring to #4 (thanks for quoting btw).  J has played enough games to know that self voting is bad play (see Mafia II: Morgrim, Mafia III: Galzria) so this reason is invalid.

[popsofctown]

Ok then, I'll start holding it against Jo.  I still don't want to lynch Jo.

I guess if you haven't played age of empires I could see the pixels being hard to interpret.  The water has small fishing ships on it with red and white sails.  Some are casting white nets off the side of the brown boat.

It's supposed to be a Fishing Village.

[Captain_Frisk]

It's supposed to be a Fishing Village.

Is this commentary on our sad state of scumhunting in this town?

[Tables]

does anyone like my avatar?

No. Fishing traps are terrible. Use farmers instead.

[popsofctown]

Fishing Village is stronger than Farming Village though :/

[Captain_Frisk]

Fishing Village is stronger than Farming Village though :/

Why don't we change this thread into a debate as to whether fishing village should cost 4.

[popsofctown]

It should cost five.  Id still buy it sometimesi

[Captain_Frisk]

Is it ok if someone from outside the game gives me a +1?  I'm going to reference another thread... and say that the Ruination 10th year anniversary is some good stuff.

Protip: 22oz of 10.8% beer is way more than you expect.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - looks like pops left me alone here.  I'm going to sign off - I probably won't be around much tomorrow.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So, Jo's been gone for a while now. Guess it's a little different to be at L-1 when it isn't your own vote that put you there.

@Jo - Can you answer my question at 2831 please?

@Robz and Tables - Can you both answer my question at 2832 please?

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - Can you answer my question from #2833?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm going to wait and hear from the folks I addressed questions to.

Since you're here - will you answer mine?

Frisk, I'm (almost) always logged on, so the green light being lit doesn't mean I'm really here.

To some extent, the questions were just to generate responses that I could look at tomorrow, but I realize I will likely not be alive tomorrow - it's getting down to crunch time.  I do have some concerns about you (in fact, I now have concerns about everyone other than me).  I'll likely detail those in a post soon.  (no promises)

I was also waiting to see if someone else would hammer.  Given my constant railing against Jo, it seemed logical to me that scum/mafia would expect me to jump on the opportunity to finally be rid of him. I think this is true whether he is town or mafia.  Letting me hammer seems to cloud the "was he bussed" analysis. Also, given all of my "let's get rid of Jo" talk, I knew I was putting myself under at least a little scrutiny by waiting, but I wanted more data.  (I'm fully expecting the once-per-RL-week occurrence of "I'm still not sure SFS is in the clear" comment from someone tomorrow).  And I still may hammer, because I see value in Jo being gone, though less value than him being gone on D1.  The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.  The next best time is now.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

*than him being gone on D1. -fixed it

[Captain_Frisk]

@SFS - I responded 2 minutes after your post - so it was reasonable to expect you to possibly still be here.  My question on #2833 - which you still haven't answered is:

You've implied that I'm a better kill target than Axxle.  I'd like to understand why.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, so here's where I'm at (sorry for the stream of consciousness):

A lot of little things are nagging at me. Some of them are just things that hit me wrong, which is a dangerous judgement to make without the benefit of tone.  Other things are simple inconsistencies.   Since this is my first game ever, I don't know if the little inconsistencies are mafia slips, or folks operating with the same sense of "freedom" that being Town gives me.  In no particular order:

1) The parallel posts in 2823 and 2824 from the wundertwins seems forced/contrived, as if to further advance the twinclaim.  Especially the mirror of "nope this is stupid" with "this is silly".

2) Dsell preferring to shoot Frisk over Axxle2.  I have more inconsistencies noted for Frisk than Axxle2, but my feeling is that Axxle has posted very little (I'm not necessarily referring to postcount), so for me that equates to lurking, which feels scummy.  If Dsell is mafia, then he'd obviously want us to shoot Town (before dying tomorrow for being a liar), hoping that the results of the night are 3 more non-mafia dead.  But if he's town, I think I agree with his preference of Frisk over Axxle2 to die.

3) Frisk, in 1796, asserted that he wanted to hammer Jo "on principal" [sic], but he was not willing to hammer by Iphone. (It seemed weird to sacrifice principle over the type of voting machinery, but whatever).  Yet in 2814, Frisk expresses willingness to unvote by phone.  Interestingly, the original inaction helped Jo.  The action of unvoting (if taken) would help Jo.  And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

4) Pops being so inscrutable/unhelpful feels non-town to me in general.  It mimics O, but that is guilt by association.And you all have made it clear that that's just Pops being Pops.  Folks thought my early posting was unhelpful too.

5) Pops very early (and adamant) defense of me (371) was strange.  Our later tete a tete about the issue didn't leave me feeling any better.  If he's town, he's not done a good job of answering questions from someone he's convinced is town.  If he's mafia, he's done a good job of helping me ascribe that unwillingness to help to something akin to benign neglect of a lesser/newer player, rather than evidence of mafia play.  Which worries me.

6) Robz has started worrying me a little. He changes his mind a lot, after making good cases against people, and now seems to want to move pretty quickly through all the design, build, and sell stages of this current deal.  Maybe that just means Axxle has written something that stuck with me (2803).  Though maybe Axxle was just parroting Jo in 2802.

There are other examples, but I'm really tired of going over the thread for documentation purposes.  I don't know that I will pass on the deal of lynch Jo, shoot Axxle just because I might slightly favor the second part being shoot Frisk rather than Axxle, but I need to think a bit more, because this feels like voting for two people with one vote.

[Tables]

Robz and Tables:  Do both of you believe Axxle is a better choice to shoot than Frisk?  If so, why?

Yes. I have something of a townread on Frisk: His refusal to hammer O, who was a shoe-in lynch by that point, would be a terrible move as mafia, both in terms of coming under scrutiny today AND letting the day linger on. That single point was more or less the only suspicious thing I've noted him doing, while Axxle has always been unnotable and brief, and so I'd certainly put him above Frisk.

[Captain_Frisk]

3) Frisk, in 1796, asserted that he wanted to hammer Jo "on principal" [sic], but he was not willing to hammer by Iphone. (It seemed weird to sacrifice principle over the type of voting machinery, but whatever).  Yet in 2814, Frisk expresses willingness to unvote by phone.  Interestingly, the original inaction helped Jo.  The action of unvoting (if taken) would help Jo.  And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

Can't help misspelling on the iphone - but man is that embarrassing.  In my mind - the difference between hammering via iphone (where I might have misread something etc. because I was skimming while walking around a store or while trying to keep my son from jumping down the stairs) - and unvoting - is that killing someone is a pretty big decision - and I really want to be able to search back - look at everyone's posts etc.

Unvoting is significantly less risky - so if (for example) Pops was to come out with a rolecop claim and say that for sure 100% Jonah is the Doctor - I would unvote without hesitation.  The fact that I had the phone handy made me comfortable leaving an early vote on.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@SFS - I responded 2 minutes after your post - so it was reasonable to expect you to possibly still be here.  My question on #2833 - which you still haven't answered is:

You've implied that I'm a better kill target than Axxle.  I'd like to understand why.

Frisk - Sorry, 2879 was intended to be my answer to your question. Let me clarify. At the time I asked the two questions that seemed to point to you over Axxle2, I was mostly data collecting. Since then, I've realized that I may actually have a slight preference for you over Axxle to be shot, and have posted why in 2882.

Also, I agree you had every right to assume I was still on two minutes after the post you reference, especially since I often let the group know when I'm gone for the night.  This morning, when I re-read my last post from last night, I realized it didn't carry the "I'm done for today" message I was feeling at the time.

[Captain_Frisk]

And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

I love how even innocent remarks are mafia tells!  I was trying to think of what circumstances I would unvote.  J has already roleclaimed VT - so I think I'd lynch him no matter what he said.  The only thing I could think of would be if someone had some night 2 investigation results.

As to your scumtells:

1.  I'm not really sure how one rolefishes in a concealed manner.  If someone knows that J is innocent - then I want to know so that I don't lynch him.  If I'm mafia - then I don't want anyone to claim - so that he dies.  I would reveal if I was a cop and had investigated J - that would potentially clear 4 of us (SFS, Tables, Me, J) - which gives us great odds on scum hunting and killing.

2.  If I'm coaching (as mafia) who am I coaching to?  Presumably I would only want my partner to falseclaim cop get Jonah off the hook.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is Jonah - then well clearly that isn't going to work.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is someone else - well then Jonah isn't mafia and we've successfully lynched town - so again I wouldn't be coaching my partner to copclaim.

Sorry to jump on you - I just don't understand your logic - and if you're going to push for a me execution over Axxle - i want to at least understand why.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And the tagline in 2814 ("someone cop claims i guess?") just feels like coaching (or concealed rolefishing) to me.

I love how even innocent remarks are mafia tells!  I was trying to think of what circumstances I would unvote.  J has already roleclaimed VT - so I think I'd lynch him no matter what he said.  The only thing I could think of would be if someone had some night 2 investigation results.

As to your scumtells:

1.  I'm not really sure how one rolefishes in a concealed manner.  If someone knows that J is innocent - then I want to know so that I don't lynch him.  If I'm mafia - then I don't want anyone to claim - so that he dies.  I would reveal if I was a cop and had investigated J - that would potentially clear 4 of us (SFS, Tables, Me, J) - which gives us great odds on scum hunting and killing.

2.  If I'm coaching (as mafia) who am I coaching to?  Presumably I would only want my partner to falseclaim cop get Jonah off the hook.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is Jonah - then well clearly that isn't going to work.  If I'm mafia - and my partner is someone else - well then Jonah isn't mafia and we've successfully lynched town - so again I wouldn't be coaching my partner to copclaim.

Sorry to jump on you - I just don't understand your logic - and if you're going to push for a me execution over Axxle - i want to at least understand why.

I don't at all feel jumped on, so you're good.  And many of the things I say "hit me wrong" could just be me reacting in the moment, which is why I've tried to slow down a bit since D1.  Also, "thinly veiled" would have been a better adjective to precede "rolefishing".

Having said all that, you make excellent points here, so I'm feeling better about you.  I do note that you did not vote for O, which seems to indicate you missed an opportunity to take some valuable cover.

This is not the discussion I was hoping for when I asked the questions that prompted your concerns, but it has had value, so thanks for that. I accept Axxle as the night target for Dsell.

@Dsell - It is my understanding that you will kill Axxle2 tonight.  So I hammer Jo with that specific secondary objective being understood.

VOTE: JOTHEONAH

I'm still concerned with what we do if Axxle2 doesnt die tonight, but that likely will not be my problem tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

That is the hammer?  Volt - will there be extended twilight, or will you be posting the flip soon just so I can enjoy the rest of my 4th without phone refreshing to see what happened?

[Voltgloss]

Nine Estate dwellers gathered in the Mine's central chamber, having spent an exhausting day plumbing its depths.  But none had found an exit from the Estate grounds - or the elusive portcullis key.

The conversation shifted to everyone's favorite topic:  who to kill.  The early frontrunner was Dsell, up until he explained he had a Woodcutter's axe back in his room and was happy to use it how the dwellers saw fit.  In response, the dwellers worked on a team-agreed plan for the upcoming bloodlettings. 

Finally, jotheonah stood up to read out what had been approved, finishing:  "...and today, everybody kills me." 

He stopped and squinted at his notes.  "Wait, is that right?"

Any further commentary was silenced when Axxle, Robz, Captain Frisk, and Tables set upon him with Miners' pickaxes.  SwitchedFromStarcraft delivered the coup de grace with a conveniently head-sized boulder.

When the dust settled, they took jotheonah's key and visited his room.  Inside, they found a collection of tomes on the fine art of scumhunting.  Unfortunately, they all gave conflicting advice, which perhaps explained a bit of jotheonah's bizarre behavior over the past few days.  But the final conclusion was indisputable:  jotheonah was a Vanilla Townie.

Vote Count 3-16

Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (5): Axxle, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {2}: Glooble, Dsell

jotheonah has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night 3 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by 10:59 a.m. EDT, Friday, July 6.

If I receive all commands before the deadline, Night 3 may start early.  I will check at 8 a.m. Thursday, 8 p.m. Thursday, and 8 a.m. Friday (all EDT).  If I have not received all commands by 8 a.m. Friday, the actual start of Day 4 may be delayed until Friday evening.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Anticipating his death, Axxle rose from his bed in the middle of the night and made his way to the Estate Library.  In his hand, a bottle of the Cellar's finest wine.  If he was going to meet his maker tonight, he was going to do it on his terms:  with a good book in hand... and rip-roaring drunk.

Dawn broke.  The surviving Estate dwellers fanned out, looking for the anticipated corpse of Axxle and wondering what ingenious slaying method had been used upon him.  When Robz reached the Library, he was almost disappointed to see a simple poisoning - Axxle slumped forward in his chair, an empty wine goblet in front of him, and a book dropped below his hand ("When Point Counters Attack"). 

Robz gathered the other survivors and they began to search Axxle to learn his true identity.  pops was just taking off Axxle's boot whenBAM

pops fell back, stunned, rubbing his forehead from Axxle's kick.  Axxle blinked incredulously at those around him, and at the daylight.  "Izz... izz it dawn?  I'm alive?"  A broad grin broke out on his face.  "I'm ALIVE!!"  And Axxle leapt out of his chair and promptly crashed in a tangled, aching pile of joints and pain.  Because, y'know, rip-roaring drunk.

Glooble broke the silence.  "Well, if Axxle's not dead... then who is?"  He quickly counted those present.  Frowned.  Then counted again.

Tables came to the same conclusion, sighed, and started to set out eight wine goblets.  They were going to need a lot of it in front of them to figure out THIS day.

No one died during the night.

Day 4 Start!

Not voting {8}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.

[Glooble]

Ok. If DSell was mafia, he might have decided to target someone other than Axxle, then had that person be protected, but then the SK kill should have gone off.

If DSell really was town Vig, the mafia might have roleblocked him, but then at least one of the SK or mafia kills should have gone through.

Might we have both a one-shot protective role and a real protective role? That seems too powerful for this town.

I'm super confused right now.

[Glooble]

I hate that I'm probably going to be at work before anyone else weighs in.  Something just occurred to me, though. Mafia and SK might have targeted the same person, and been blocked by a town protective role.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm super confused right now.

Also confused. 

Any scenarios I can come up involve lucky town PRs.

Questions:

@DSell - Did you target Axxle2 with your alleged shot?  If not - why did you lie to us?

@Axxle2 - Why did you vote for the Jo lynch - knowing that the plan would involve shooting yourself?

[Captain_Frisk]

I hate that I'm probably going to be at work before anyone else weighs in.  Something just occurred to me, though. Mafia and SK might have targeted the same person, and been blocked by a town protective role.

I think this scenario works only if the protective role is jailkeeper.

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia? 

[Voltgloss]

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

[Glooble]

Didn't know that. Scratch that theory.

[Glooble]

Well, not totally scratch, but its less likely.

[Glooble]

I just looked over the role PMs at the beginning of the thread, and it doesn't say anything about the roleblockers protecting their targets from night kills. It looks like they block their roles, and that's it. Volt, confirm?

[Captain_Frisk]

Well, not totally scratch, but its less likely.

The problem with this theory is that either:

1. DSell is lying and didn't target Axxle2.
2. The town jailkeeper targeted Axxle2 - which seems less than intelligent.
3. Multiple night killers targeted Axxle2 - Axxle2 was bulletproof / doctored (?!?!) and the other killer was jailkept / roleblocked.

[Glooble]

I didn't think of Axxle being bulletproof. That's another possibility.

[Voltgloss]

I just looked over the role PMs at the beginning of the thread, and it doesn't say anything about the roleblockers protecting their targets from night kills. It looks like they block their roles, and that's it. Volt, confirm?

Confirmed.  Roleblockers do not stop their targets from dying.

[Axxle]

@Axxle2 - Why did you vote for the Jo lynch - knowing that the plan would involve shooting yourself?

Plenty of reasons.  Mostly I knew that the loss of me was less of a burden to a town than the loss of someone else.

This situation is so confusing.  Either we had EXTREMELY lucky town, but what I think might be more likely is that both Mafia and SK decided to set themselves up for a roleblocker/protection roleclaim and DSell or myself for the lynch since there was serious talk about mass roleclaiming today.

[Tables]

DSell was blocked, doctor protected the mafia target (there is no SK)
DSell was blocked, doctors protected both mafia and SK tagets
DSell did not kill, mafia did not kill or were blocked.
DSell is mafia/SK, his kill was blocked, or he did not kill

And lots of other possibilities. In particular, how likely is it that both the SK and mafia decided not to kill today, while DSell did? I think a very plausible situation is:

DSell is blocked, the mafia hit the SK, the SK hits the doctor target. Which is... interesting, to say the least. Unlikely, too.

Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.

Snap!  @Volt - can we get a confirmation?

[Voltgloss]

Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.

Snap!  @Volt - can we get a confirmation?

There are no roles in the game beyond those listed in the intro post.  I don't know if people are using the term "jailkeeper" to colloquially (and imprecisely) mean "roleblocker."  But I can confirm that there is no role in this game that both roleblocks AND protects its target (i.e., a "jailkeeper" as the term is properly used).

[Glooble]

That's what I was just saying about roleblockers not protecting their targets.

We could still have doctor + roleblocker though, although that seems unlikely to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also I'm not sure why people are suggesting Jailkeepers. We can't have one. It's not one of the listed roles.

Snap!  @Volt - can we get a confirmation?

There are no roles in the game beyond those listed in the intro post.  I don't know if people are using the term "jailkeeper" to colloquially (and imprecisely) mean "roleblocker."  But I can confirm that there is no role in this game that both roleblocks AND protects its target (i.e., a "jailkeeper" as the term is properly used).

Thank you.  I was using jailkeeper as a proper term - as I (mistakenly) assumed that it was one of the possible roles.  That does make things alot harder.

[Tables]

Having thought about it, I think it's time we confirmed the presence of a serial killer. I am not a woodcutter/militiaman.

It's possible we have another woodcutter, which could potentially eliminate the need for a SK. But first I think we need to check that.

[Captain_Frisk]

Having thought about it, I think it's time we confirmed the presence of a serial killer. I am not a woodcutter/militiaman.

It's possible we have another woodcutter, which could potentially eliminate the need for a SK. But first I think we need to check that.

Didn't we do this yesterday?  I haven't gone back through to confirm that everyone did or did not, but I'll do it again:

I am not a woodcutter/militiaman.

[Captain_Frisk]

So the first piece of the puzzle is: What did DSell do?

I see a bunch of branching paths from there - but lets start with that.

Where is everyone!

[Tables]

We started, but it was a bit too early, which is why I didn't. I remember SFS, Pops and Axxle confirmed they weren't. Adding me and you and DSell gives us 6/8 without me even needing to look back.

[Axxle]

We started, but it was a bit too early, which is why I didn't. I remember SFS, Pops and Axxle confirmed they weren't. Adding me and you and DSell gives us 6/8 without me even needing to look back.

I'm about 80% sure that Robz started it.

[Tables]

I thought it was Frisk, actually. Not sure it really matters.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm caught up through 2913, but will be out most of the afternoon.

This is NOT what I expected.  Can't wait to hear Dsell's story.

[Captain_Frisk]

Yeah it was me.  Tables didn't like it.  RobZ didn't claim - and mentioned that if someone did claim, then it would be a contest between the newclaimer and DSell - which I didn't buy.  (Hypothetically assume I am a mafia / SK would would be willing to claim false claim 3rd vig - i convince the rest of town that DSell is lying because i'm the real vig.  DSell is lynched.  He flips vig.  I'm boned harder than Personman was after Donald X.'s epic conversion of a thread into a game of forum mafia.

Pops of course didn't claim.

I tend to view no-one claiming 3rd vig as evidence that there are no other vigs, because if there was a true vig - they would have claimed and we would have lynched DSell.  That doesn't necessarily clear DSell's claim, but it also doesn't make him an auto lynch.

[Robz888]

Hi guys, I just got caught up on the thread.

I did NOT start the roleclaiming thing yesterday. I didn't even weigh in on it. Didn't see the point. But now, for the record, I am NOT a militiaman/woodcutter.

[Robz888]

Anyway, we do not have another vigilante. If we did, it would have contradicted Dsell's claim. Because Grujah is already a confirmed Vig, and Dsell makes 2, and their could not be 3 of them. You could have had like 4 deaths the first night. The game wouldn't have been balanced.

[Robz888]

I think it will have to be strongly considered at this point that Dsell is lying.

[Dsell]

I shot Axxle2. This looks almost as bad for the mafia as it does for me, though.

Also, I'm attending a wedding later today so I will not be on much at all until much later tonight.

[Axxle]

For the record, now that Joth flipped town I'm pretty sure CF is town for reasons I've stated earlier (the lynch window he had in an earlier day)

[Dsell]

For the record, now that Joth flipped town I'm pretty sure CF is town for reasons I've stated earlier (the lynch window he had in an earlier day)

It's still possible that he's SK though. I think it's somewhat less likely than Robz, but still very possible.

[Axxle]

@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.

[Robz888]

@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.

I shot myself. Which means the doctor protected me, but the doctor was roleblocked, but the roleblocker was bus drivered. No one. I don't get a night shot, you trickster.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - so as long as a town roleblocker didn't block DSell and / or town doctor didn't protect Axxle, then it is confirmed that there is scum within that pair.  Agreed? 

The only other scenarios I can think of are:

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot.  This one is even worse because it involves town lying, and intentionally wasting DSell's shot.

[Dsell]

@Robz: who did you shoot at yesterday? It might help us track down mafia.

It's also quite possible that YOU are the SK and bulletproof.

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

[Axxle]

Ok - so as long as a town roleblocker didn't block DSell and / or town doctor didn't protect Axxle, then it is confirmed that there is scum within that pair.  Agreed? 

The only other scenarios I can think of are:

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)
- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot.  This one is even worse because it involves town lying, and intentionally wasting DSell's shot.

Most roles can't target themselves by default.

[Voltgloss]

- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot. 

Roles cannot self-target.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Axxle is really a doctor / roleblocker and falseclaimed VT yesterday - and protected himself from the DSell shot by targeting DSell. 

Roles cannot self-target.

Thx - Fixed

[Axxle]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

[Dsell]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

[Dsell]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

That suspicion comes at the cost of a kill.  I agree that it's more plausible than Axxle falseclaiming VT when he could really roleblock you as town, but it still strikes me as unconventional.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

[Robz888]

I take back what I said about strongly considering the possibility Dsell is lying. I'll consider it still, but I sort of totally forgot that we could have a Mafia Roleblocker. Anyway, let's look at the possible scenarios for how Axxle lived:

A) Dsell is lying, and he did not shoot Axxle.
B) Dsell shot Axxle, but Dsell was roleblocked.
C) Dsell shot Axxle, but Axxle was protected by the doctor.
D) Dsell shot Axxle, but Axxle is one-shot immune.

I believe these are the only possible scenarios. Let's examine each of them.

C) This is the one that can be ruled out, I think. Everyone was comfortable with the Axxle shot, even Axxle (!). So if the town has a doctor, I don't know why he would cause such confusion. If he really didn't want Axxle to die, he would have objected to the plan. I also just don't think we have a doctor, at this point.

So I'm ruling out C. As for the rest.

A) If Dsell is lying, and did not shoot Axxle, I can think of only one reason: they are both mafia. Right? Why would Dsell put his reputation on the line if it wasn't worth saving Axxle to him? If Dsell is the SK, he would still want to kill Axxle, I think.

D) If D is true, it can only be true because Axxle is the SK. In this scenario, Dsell could be town or mafia.

B) Here's the most interesting one: the roleblocking one. So, I had totally forgotten about the Mafia Thief, the Roleblocker. Here is the description from the intro thread.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Thief {Roleblocker}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Each night phase, you individually may perform a roleblock on another player in the game.  You cannot block and kill in the same night.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Emphasis mine. Let's say Axxle is the Mafia Thief. He knows he needs to protect himself, because he knows for sure Dsell will kill him. So he has to roleblock Dsell. This leaves him unable to perform the factional kill, because he can only do one or the other. This would explain why there was no mafia kill, and would mean that Axxle is the only remaining mafia.

So what about the SK kill? I would guess that we have a town roleblocker as well, and the town roleblocker hit the SK. I guess it's possible the SK did no kill. I guess it's also possible we have 2 mafia and no SK, although that seems really unbalanced, with all these townie one-shot vigs and other roles.

Anyway, in all scenarios, I think Axxle is a scum, and should probably be our lynch. Thoughts?

[Axxle]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

[Robz888]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

I don't think the mafia would block your shot if you were town and making it against a town. In fact, I am certain they wouldn't. The reason is because they know they need to get the SK, they can't win with an SK, still around, and eveyr person who isn't them is a potential SK. So I don't think they would have stopped you from killing Axxle.

[Robz888]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

Sorry - i thought you were accusing me of being mafia for not being willing to hammer because it would point the finger at me per J's instructions.

As for missing shots, town roleblocker blocks SK, Mafia shoots bulletproof SK, or DSell is actually SK and was mafia roleblocked by accident.  Also - both mafia and / or SK could no kill to cause additional confusion as to why Axxle didn't die. 

No matter what though - its unlikely - and this is why I asked for agreement - it is overwhelmingly likely that there is scum in the set of {DSell, Axxle2}.  RobZ suggests that we start with you.  His argument matches what is scribbled in my notebook, but I'm trying to drum up some viable scenario in which you survive without being scum.

[popsofctown]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

[Captain_Frisk]

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

I don't think this is fact:

3 semi plausible scenarios i can come up with:
1.  DSell and Axxle are both mafia.  One of them (the shooter) is random thwarted by town doctor protection (or roleblocking - although Axxle2 would be the likely target here).  The other (roleblocker) roleblocks the serial killer.
2.  Town roleblocker hits the serial killer.  Axxle2 is the shooter.  DSell is the town vig.  Mafia roleblocker blocks DSell's vig.
3.  DSell is mafia2, Axxle2 is serial killer.  DSell (shooter) shoots Axxle2 -> bulletproof.  Axxle2's kill is blocked by the town doctor.  Mafia3 smiles and nods. 

Here's the question: We just finished Mafia III - where there were 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 9 town.  With more town, would you really expect to have less scum?

[Captain_Frisk]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

This is a rhetorical question, right?  Clearly - if we are idiots, it explains our behavior.

[Robz888]

Why'd you idiots lynch jo

Fine, you get to gloat this time, Pops. Whatever. Do you have thoughts on how to proceed? Like, we should almost certainly lynch Axxle, right?

[Robz888]

I think it's very, very important to note that the same mafia person can not roleblock and factional kill. The lack of a mafia factional kill speaks to me of the fact that there is only one remaining mafia, and he chose to do the block instead of the kill.

I don't think this is fact:

3 semi plausible scenarios i can come up with:
1.  DSell and Axxle are both mafia.  One of them (the shooter) is random thwarted by town doctor protection (or roleblocking - although Axxle2 would be the likely target here).  The other (roleblocker) roleblocks the serial killer.
2.  Town roleblocker hits the serial killer.  Axxle2 is the shooter.  DSell is the town vig.  Mafia roleblocker blocks DSell's vig.
3.  DSell is mafia2, Axxle2 is serial killer.  DSell (shooter) shoots Axxle2 -> bulletproof.  Axxle2's kill is blocked by the town doctor.  Mafia3 smiles and nods. 

Here's the question: We just finished Mafia III - where there were 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 9 town.  With more town, would you really expect to have less scum?

Sorry, I didn't mean to say my interpretation was fact, just that it's a strong contender.

1. Yes, this is a possible scenario. I agree. It might be very likely, except there is no way a town doctor protected Axxle. If he did, we should hang that doctor for treason. The answer: lynch Axxle.

2. Yes, I think town roleblocker hitting SK might be what happened regardless of the whole Axxle/Dsell situation. Under this scenario, we should still kill Axxle, right?

3. Yes, and then lynching Axxle is still pretty good.

All your conclusions lead to Axxle lynch, right? Then we agree.

[Robz888]

I think MIII was un-balanced in favor of scum, especially given the cop mistake that occurred. We could have 2 mafia and 1 SK, with no strong roles, just one-shots.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think you're right RobZ.  The clincher for me is that Axxle2 voted for the plan that would get him shot.  He had to assume protection - either in the form of bulletproof, or protection. 

I can't think of truly plausible scenarios that involve Axxle2 being town and DSell not shooting him.  If DSell had come out and said "Hey guys - I know you told me to shoot Axxle, but I really really really liked Captain_Frisk instead - so I shot at him instead - then this is plausible.

The best I had was:

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This scenario is missing 2 kills though

Axxle2 - can you put forth a plausible scenario in which you are not scum? 

This might be the shortest day in MIV history.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is a scary scenario, but still doesn't explain where all the shots went.  Mafia and SK would still have wanted to NK someone.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

If Joth was hammered then, I would have given no one town points.

@Axxle - I've already answered that accusation from SFS.  Do you want me to dig?

Accusation?

Sorry - i thought you were accusing me of being mafia for not being willing to hammer because it would point the finger at me per J's instructions.

As for missing shots, town roleblocker blocks SK, Mafia shoots bulletproof SK, or DSell is actually SK and was mafia roleblocked by accident.  Also - both mafia and / or SK could no kill to cause additional confusion as to why Axxle didn't die. 

No matter what though - its unlikely - and this is why I asked for agreement - it is overwhelmingly likely that there is scum in the set of {DSell, Axxle2}.  RobZ suggests that we start with you.  His argument matches what is scribbled in my notebook, but I'm trying to drum up some viable scenario in which you survive without being scum.

emphasis mine
Why does this phrasing ring so false to me? It's such an odd concept, the mafia roleblocking somebody by accident. Given they can talk and vote and throw a party and all before deciding on their nightkill. But superimpose the fact Dsell had claimed, had triggered all the attendant scrutiny/discussion, was involved in the dealmaking, etc. Now I grant you that there are viable reasons the mafia may have roleblocked Dsell, but if they did it, it was most certainly NOT by accident.  This is off somehow.

[Robz888]

By the way, if we have any one-shot roleblockers among the town, and you used your powers, please reveal yourselves. There is no point in keeping quiet about it.

[Captain_Frisk]

This is off somehow.

That's true.  I don't really have an explanation.  I think i might have started with the assumption that the mafia could have blocked the SK by accident (meaning random chance), but then realized that there would still be a kill unless DSell was the SK, and as I wrote that in, didn't re-consider that the scenario no longer made sense.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - JUST SO WE ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR

True or false: Whenever there are two mafia remaining, and at least one is a roleblocker, then the roleblocker can exercise his power to roleblock on NightA, AND the OTHER mafia can still make the mafia kill on NightA.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - JUST SO WE ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR

True or false: Whenever there are two mafia remaining, and at least one is a roleblocker, then the roleblocker can exercise his power to roleblock on NightA, AND the OTHER mafia can still make the mafia kill on NightA.

True.

[Robz888]

SFS, but then we have to explain why there were zero kills last night, instead of 3. There had to have been a lot of roleblocking if the mafia did use a factional kill.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Yes, I wasn't unclear in my mind, I just wanted a binary statement on the issue, because there was a phrase in an earlier post (don't want to look it up right now, composing on something else), that was then later bolded and asked about. Clearly there were two ways to interpret that phrase, and yet I had a third viewpoint entirely. Hence my request of Volt.

[popsofctown]

I am totally confused and bewildered by night's outcome.  Night stuff is your job.  I respect your job.  Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

- Mafia Roleblocker blocks Town Vig DSell who was targeting Vanilla Town (per his claim) Axxle valid as a way to cause confusion and make for an easy lynch today (and tomorrow i suppose)

This is the problem, if the mafia has a roleblocker they had incentive to block my shot whether Axxle was town (or SK) or Mafia. If he's mafia it protects him for at least one night, if he's town it puts a lot of suspicion on both of us.

Emphasis mine.

This I agree with.  And if Dsell were mafia, wouldn't mafia gain more than just confusion by taking Axxle out (if he's town), thereby accruing to Dsell HUGE town points.  It's an almost guaranteed rest-of-the game disguise for Dsell.

So,
1) Does this clear Dsell in any way?
2) Does it give us any more to work with on Axxle (my brain hurts and I can run this one out that far.)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Axxle - What were you trying to convey in 2929?  Frisk took it as an accusation, a notion at which you expressed bewilderment.

[Axxle]

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

[Axxle]

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

I thought that's what made him town, as opposed to the opposite.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

Pops is rubbing off on Axxle.

[Axxle]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, would you elaborate on the jo/C_F interaction that you think makes C_F town?

I thought that's what made him town, as opposed to the opposite.

Frankly - based on the overwhelmingly likely situation that you are scum, I'd rather you accused me of being mafia instead of town.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And I'm sorry this is being seen as defensive. Perhaps this will help?

Unvote.

Vote: jtotheonah

When I flip town, lynch Axxle and/or whoever drops this hammer.

I want to hmmer on principal. Not going to iPhone hammer though.

But if he's mafia, he knew he would be targeting town. Not hammering on a mostly-inevitable mislynch gets him town points.

And has sort of an analog in "I forgot I didn't vote, I thought I voted".

[popsofctown]

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

Doctor's can't double time.

[Captain_Frisk]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

Just to be clear - in both of these situations the mafia roleblocked DSell (preventing the kill of a known town or Serial Killer) - in exchange for confusion - the best case of which results in lynching both you today.... when they could have let just you die outright?

This is what you are going with?

[Axxle]

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

Doctor's can't double time.

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

[Captain_Frisk]

Can't edit - should read "both you today and DSell tomorrow"

[Voltgloss]

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

[Axxle]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

Just to be clear - in both of these situations the mafia roleblocked DSell (preventing the kill of a known town or Serial Killer) - in exchange for confusion - the best case of which results in lynching both you today.... when they could have let just you die outright?

This is what you are going with?

What I see the Mafia are planning is to queue up an Axxle lynch and a DSell lynch for today and tomorrow, two non-mafia members.

[Captain_Frisk]

Did Axxle just get burned by the Mod?

[Voltgloss]

Did Axxle just get burned by the Mod?

If it reads that way, it wasn't intentional.  I was just trying to answer his question, and it happened to be a question I'd answered upthread.

[Axxle]

Doh!

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

How?  I read it as Volt just reposting his earlier post, in confirmation of Pops' assertion in 2961.

PPE: ninja'd by mod himself

[Axxle]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.

[Captain_Frisk]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.

If DSell is the SK - I can think of a very plausible reason for the Mafia to roleblock him.  They would almost have to!  Would anyone like to hazard a guess?

[Axxle]

Scenarios:

DSell is SK, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create confusion.  Mafia shot someone who got protected by doctor.  Or mafia got roleblocked too.

DSell is 1shot vig, tried to shoot me, got roleblocked by mafia to create comfusion.  Mafia and SK shot the same person who got protected by the doctor.

I don't see a plausible scenario where DSell is mafia.

So in conclusion I think that DSell is SK due to it being unlikely that we had 4 people target the same guy yesterday.

If DSell is the SK - I can think of a very plausible reason for the Mafia to roleblock him.  They would almost have to!  Would anyone like to hazard a guess?

That... they thought it'd be funny? Like a clown?

[Robz888]

Because Axxle is the mafia!

[Captain_Frisk]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

[Axxle]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

Because I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?

Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.

Who should we have lynched yesterday?

[Robz888]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

I'm not sure I want to move quite that quickly, because the discussion is helpful anyway if we turn out wrong, and we haven't even heard from Glooble or Tables yet.

Still, I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason not to lynch Axxle next. There are simply more reasons he would have survived if he's scum (mafia or SK). If he's not scum, the only reason he could have survived is if the scum wanted him to---to create confusion? I'm not sure either scum team would rather have some minimum amount of confusion in exchange for protecting a member of the town, especially given that both scum groups (mafia and SK) want the other to die in the night, and would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

Seriously.  Is there any reason to not start voting on this right now?  We could have our night time over the weekend and have a nice fresh day 5 waiting for us Monday morning to put off work

Because I'm not mafia and DSell is SK?

Day stuff is my job, but you don't respect my job.

Who should we have lynched yesterday?

Pops' lack of commentary on this situation is very concerning. 

However, I believe that even if Tables claimed full cop right now and said hands down Pops was the mafia - I'd still think the case against you is stronger.

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

Meaning it's annoying, not scummy.

[Voltgloss]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

[Axxle]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

Argh.  Need to read that again.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

would have no way of knowing Axxle wasn't one of the other scum.

Excluding a rolecop.

I don't like how you keep assuming things about the setup like it's fact.  You said before you're pretty sure there's no SK.  You say you don't think there's a doctor.  You say you don't think there's a rolecop.  etc

No burn intended, but there isn't a rolecop.  No roles beyond those listed in the Intro post can possibly be in this game.

And this is essentially a moderator repeat of a previous moderator post, so it shouldn't throw anyone.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - just to be clear - I didn't really think that Volt was burning Axxle.  +1,000 to volt for being an outstanding mod.

[Axxle]

Oh - just to be clear - I didn't really think that Volt was burning Axxle.  +1,000 to volt for being an outstanding mod.

Seconded.

To clarify what I think the mafia did:
If DSell was a 1shot vig and the mafia let me die then there would be 3 night deaths and DSell would be exonerated and we might lynch mafia today.
If DSell was a 1shot vig and the mafia prevented me from dying then there would be 2 night deaths and DSell would be questioned and a non-mafia would be lynched today (me or DSell) giving mafia almost a second free night phase.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

AFK for the next few hours.

[Axxle]

Took a while, but I upvoted all of Voltgloss's posts.  whew.

Trying to figure out who the mafia could be.  Really wasn't expecting the Joth flip.  I suggest everyone have a theory of who mafia could be if I flip town, because I will.

[Robz888]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

[Captain_Frisk]

As far as I understand it - there are 3 possibilities re # of mafia remaining:

1
2
3

3 is almost 0 because it seems exceptionally likely that we have a serial killer. 

So we have 1 mafia and 1 sk, or 2 mafia and 1 sk.

I know that M3 looked slanted toward mafia... but we have more players, and the town still won that one.  I find it unlikely to think that we would truly have fewer mafia.

Then again, this is my 2nd game of mafia, and the 2 games I read before this were smaller.  Since you asked me to put a % chance on it... I'd say 90%. 

Then there's the game state:  I believe Axxle to be mafia.

If we only had 1 remaining mafia (lets say its Axxle, and he is a roleblocker - pretty much the only way to survive)... the only thing this accomplishes is that he now looks like a bullet proof serial killer.  He survives 1 extra day.

In this situation - Axxle should absolutely not have voted for a plan that results in him being targeted by DSell.  He's screwed.

If Axxle is not mafia - but there is only 1 out there, then Axxle is a bullet proof serial killer.  There is no other way for him to have survived, unless DSell is mafia and targeted someone else and lied about it (why wouldn't he just kill Axxle?)  If this is the way he flips, then I'll entertain the possibility of only 1 remaining mafia - but I'm not sure how it would change the game.  You'd still be hunting mafia. 

I could see an advantage to convincing people that there is only 1 mafia remaining - very useful if Axxle2 flips mafia.

I don't see any advantage in assuming there is only 1 mafia remaining.  Why wouldn't you assume the worst case scenario?

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

Err, night one.

[Axxle]

Vote: Axxle

I'm not proposing that we lynch him right now, but I'm pretty sure this is unlikely to change.  We need 5 out of 8.  Presumably Axxle won't self vote here, and if he does have a roleblocking partner, they wouldn't either, so in order to lynch we need 5 out 6 non mafia to accomplish it. 

At least this way I won't hold people up if they want to do it this weekend and I'm mowing the lawn.

Frisk, where do you put likelihood that there is precisely one remaining mafia, vs two?

SFS, I personally believe we have only one more mafia and a SK, based on the lack of death last night.

2 mafia 1 sk and 1 one shot vig means that the game could end Day 1.  That is dumb, really really dumb, for real.

Err, night one.

And even more likely with 2 vigs.

[Robz888]

Blargh, you're right. I don't know. The lack of death last night is baffling.

[Robz888]

Maybe we should have a massclaim.

We have 8 people left alive. Let's say we believe the roleclaims of SFS and Dsell. That leaves 6 unknown people. If we have 1 SK and at least 1 mafia, that brings the total of unknown roles down to 4. If we think there has to be another 1 mafia at least--and I guess you're right, there probably is--that leaves us with only 3 townies of unknown roles.

I know that I am one of them. And let's say Tables is one, based on SFS's investigation. And then either pops or Glooble. Probably Glooble, whose O vote I always thought was acquitting.

Then everybody else (Pops, Axxle, and Frisk) are a SK or mafia. Hey now, that actually makes some sense.

Of course if Tables was the investigative immune SK, then that would leave room for one of these people to be cleared. Or if I am the SK (which people believe) that could also clear one of them. Finally, if Dsell is a mafia or SK, again, we could have one of them in the clear.

Massclaim?

[Robz888]

Well, kill Axxle, massclaim next round maybe, I guess.

[Axxle]

I just remembered that Mafia might have shot bullet immune SK which puts DSell being 1-shot vig back within the realm of possibility.

[Axxle]

Looking back yesterday, pops is so friggin unhelpful.

I'm willing to venture that the rest of the scum are DSell, Pops, and... err... probably not Robz, Tables, or SFS.  I already think CF is leaning town.  Glooble/pops team and DSell SK?

[popsofctown]

No Robz.  Massclaim is dumb.  Massclaims should only happen when they might change the lynch of the current day.  No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

[popsofctown]

oh, you realized that yourself later.  I was just jumping to post because i was worried someone would claim out of turn.

Carry on.

[Captain_Frisk]

No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

Are you not finding Axxle's posts a decent reason not to lynch him?

[Tables]

I claim town. wait, no, too soon, I retract!

I honestly don't see a better plan than lynching Axxle. All signs suggest he's the most likely scum of everyone left alive. I don't have any notes on his (Axxle1, Green Opal and Axxle2's) attitude to O in days 1 and 2, but it could be revealing, I guess?

Mmm... last night certainly was confusing. I think it's certainly very likely a doctor did something last night - if a one shot, it was probably well used, even if it did make things crazy.

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

[Axxle]

Is that it pops?

[popsofctown]

I am just kinda convinced that Occam's Razor suggests we lynch Axxle today.  Scum wouldn't roleblock Dsell.  Town wouldn't protect Axxle.  Axxle and Dsell being scum together is the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Voltgloss]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-1

Axxle (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {7}: Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Axxle

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[popsofctown]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.

First quiz question, did Donald say verbally announcing the score out loud is legal or illegal.

[popsofctown]

whoever takes too long to answer is clearly researching.

[popsofctown]

It's been like 90 seconds.  You're all SKs

[Axxle]

Also can I just check, is the SK obliged to kill?

No role is obliged to use their nighttime abilities.

This is the part where we rapidly quiz people on the contents of the "Dominion qualifiers finals order" thread to determine who was not on f.ds overnight and explain the missing nightkill.

First quiz question, did Donald say verbally announcing the score out loud is legal or illegal.

That was a thread I avoided in order to retain my belief that this forum is saner than most others.

[Axxle]

Occam's Razor

It is incredibly difficult to argue against that.  And I put out my theories already.  You'll just have to judge for yourselves.

At this point I wish our power roles weren't ALL duds... (except for that doctor I guess)

[Tables]

I am just kinda convinced that Occam's Razor suggests we lynch Axxle today.  Scum wouldn't roleblock Dsell.  Town wouldn't protect Axxle.  Axxle and Dsell being scum together is the only thing that makes sense to me.

Occam's Razor really doesn't apply here. It's a probability thing. What's the chance X happened? What's the chance X AND Y happened? Given Z, what's the chance of X and Y etc.

Scum might roleblock DSell, and that's the problem. Especially scum who want to be able to claim scum wouldn't.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm out. Goodnite all, have fun.

[Robz888]

I am going to go ahead and Vote: Axxle. I see no lynching anybody else. Really, we just have to know about him one way or the other (or the other other) at this point.

If we're wrong, and he's town, we go into the night with 7 people. We could lose two more townies. Worst case scenario, we have 5 people alive tomorrow, split the following way (worst case scenario): 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK. That's pretty bad; the SK still being alive is the only thing preventing a mafia victory, if my understanding is correct. So we would need to lynch a mafia, not the SK, to avoid losing.

Let's say we do lynch a mafia at that point. We go into that night with 2 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Then I think we still probably lose, unless the mafia and SK kill each other. If the mafia kills the Sk and the Sk kills a townie, the mafia win. If the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills a town, the Sk wins. If they kill both townies, I don't know who wins, but it sure ain't the town.

So actually, we're in for some pretty grim worst case scenarios if Axxle is none of the above. Gulp.

[Robz888]

But the fact that I had to point this out, rather than Axxle shouting it, "Lynch me and slow death awaits the town! Lynch me and lose later!!!" gives me a lot of hope.

[Axxle]

I am going to go ahead and Vote: Axxle. I see no lynching anybody else. Really, we just have to know about him one way or the other (or the other other) at this point.

If we're wrong, and he's town, we go into the night with 7 people. We could lose two more townies. Worst case scenario, we have 5 people alive tomorrow, split the following way (worst case scenario): 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK. That's pretty bad; the SK still being alive is the only thing preventing a mafia victory, if my understanding is correct. So we would need to lynch a mafia, not the SK, to avoid losing.

Let's say we do lynch a mafia at that point. We go into that night with 2 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Then I think we still probably lose, unless the mafia and SK kill each other. If the mafia kills the Sk and the Sk kills a townie, the mafia win. If the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills a town, the Sk wins. If they kill both townies, I don't know who wins, but it sure ain't the town.

So actually, we're in for some pretty grim worst case scenarios if Axxle is none of the above. Gulp.

Yep.

Vote: Pops  Who's my strongest scum read right now.  He really didn't do much to prevent the Joth lynch except for calling us all idiots from the sidelines.

[Glooble]

Ok, I've been at work all day, but it seems pretty cut and dry to me. As stated earlier there are three scenarios:

1.DSell was lying and is mafia

I can't think of any reason for scum DSell not to shoot Axxle besides Axxle being his partner. If DSell is scum, Axxle is almost definitely also scum.

2.DSell was lying and is SK

WHy wouldn't he have shot Axxle? If he didn't, why did Axxle survive? THe only scenario that seems remotely plausible to me here is that the mafia roleblocked him to cause confusion, but then they were giving up a town kill this late in the game and that's a huge gambit. Also, that still leaves one nightkill unaccounted for

3. DSell was telling the truth.

See above. Or SK Axxle is bulletproof.

I'm confident enough with this assessment.

Vote: Axxle

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-2

Axxle (3): Captain_Frisk, Robz888, Glooble
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {4}: Dsell, popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[Tables]

If Axxle flips town, I think the question that should be asked is, who would play the gambit we've just seen as Mafia? I'd say... Pops and Robz would certainly consider it.

[Dsell]

Vote: Axxle

I know that I'm not mafia or SK, and I honestly don't know whether Axxle is mafia, SK, or town, I see situations in which he could be any of them. Unfortunately for him there are more scenarios in which he's scum, and I don't think we'll learn much of anything without this lynch.

Honestly guys it doesn't make much sense for me to be SK. I've pointed out that I wasn't suspicious of Theorel day 1, and I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

[Axxle]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

[Dsell]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

[Axxle]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.

[Axxle]

Actually the fact that you brought it up is pretty suspicious.

[Dsell]

I was the one who first raised awareness of the possibility of a SK among a pool of Robz, Jo, myself, and a few others.

err...

This is exactly my point. I realized that the case I was making pointed the finger of suspicion squarely on myself among others. What I'm saying is that if I were the SK, making that case would be really foolhardy because I might be able to go through the game without drawing any suspicion to myself.

I could say a similar thing about me, I think. Maybe. Kinda.

I'm talking about when I first brought up that case day 3. So, no, you really couldn't say a similar thing since you haven't done much of anything to help search for the SK nor have you made any cases that point to you as a potential SK. My initial analysis back in day 3 listed Axxle as a possible SK, so I still think that's a definite possibility.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-3

Axxle (4): Captain_Frisk, Robz888, Glooble, Dsell
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {3}: popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip --
And lots of other possibilities. In particular, how likely is it that both the SK and mafia decided not to kill today, while DSell did? I think a very plausible situation is:

DSell is blocked, the mafia hit the SK, the SK hits the doctor target. Which is... interesting, to say the least. Unlikely, too.
--snip--

I have said this elswhere too, but I think this is the most likely scenario to explain the lack of deaths. I don't see town blocking Dsell to save Axxle, and no spent one-shot roleblockers have come forward (Robz asked for that info in 2946, asserting that there is no reason not to bring forward that info). So to me, that really leaves only two possibilities:

1) Dsell is telling the truth, was roleblocked by mafia. Why would mafia roleblock someone they know is town from killing someone? I don't buy confusion as the only reason here.  It makes much better sense that Axxle is mafia.
2) Dsell is lying.  Things branch from here obviously.  Is he lying town?  (Can someone give me a scenario under which a town player lying would be pro-town play?  I can only think of two.)

Let's assume we lynch Axxle@. We had no well defined next step for today if Axxle didn't die last night.  What is our plan for tomorrow if Axxle flips town? Do we lynch Dsell?  If Axxle flips mafia, what do we look at/do next?

@Axxle - You've posted thrice since Dsell put you at L-1, and each was simply to engage Dsell.  Any broader thoughts? If you die, what do you think town's next step should be?  Your vote is on Pops.  Do you think he is the last remaining mafia, or do you think he has a remaining partner? If he has a partner, who is it?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

--snip--
No one has come up with any sort of decent reason not to lynch Axxle2.

Pops, is this still true in your mind? Cause your vote is still unassigned.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Going for a swim, out for the next few hours.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - There are 9 possible alignment scenarios (actually

1. Axxle Town / DSell Town Vig
Someone would have needed to roleblock DSell (or doctor Axxle).  The only semi reasonable scenario here is that Mafia roleblocked DSell to get line up 2 mislynches on town.  Lining up only 1 mislynch on Axxle is useless - because he could have died anyway.  Mafia target and Serial Killer target were somehow blocked.

2. Axxle Town / DSell Serial Killer
This is fundamentally the same as above.  The fact that it is should mean that even if Axxle flips town - DSell is not clear.

3. Axxle Town / DSell Mafia
Mafia targed someone else and was doctored, and then was hoping to use Axxle's lack of death to point to him as the serial killer and mislynch him today.  The real serial killer was roleblocked.  It's also possible that DSell is a mafia roleblocker - and DSell's mafia partner executed the NK and was roleblocked.

Note: All of the above scenarios involve double luck of blocked mafia and doctor kills.

4. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Town Vig
Axxle doesn't die because he's bullet proof.  Still requires blocked mafia and SK kills

5. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Serial Killer
This is a secret bastard mod game.  +1,000 more for voltgloss.

6. Axxle Serial Killer / DSell Mafia
Axxle doesn't die because he's bullet proof.  Doctor / roleblocker stops Axxles kill.  Mafia target doesn't need to be explained because it's Axxle.


7. Axxle Mafia / DSell Town Vig
Mafia kill is blocked somehow, Mafia roleblocks DSell to keep Axxle alive and throw suspicion on DSell.  Serial killer is roleblocked / doctored. 

8. Axxle Mafia / DSell Serial Killer
Same as above without the need to explain the SK roleblocking / doctoring.

9.  Axxle Mafia / DSell Mafia
They are in deep crap here.  Mafia actually targets someone else and kill is blocked (SK bulletproof).  Serial killer is also blocked.

So - SFS - in answer to your question - I find scenario 1 to be extremely unlikely.  If Axxle2 flips mafia - I think we should strongly consider a DSell lynch - although this does play directly into the hypothetical mafia power play (giving up a kill (by roleblocking DSell) to secure 2 mislynches)  The absence of a Kill last night would suggest that if Mafia did block DSell to protect town - that DSell is actually likely to be the SK.  Of course - we'll need to look at the number of people left in town before we do this.  As RobZ pointed out - it is possible to get into a situation where lynching the serial killer results in a mafia win.

If Axxle flips Serial Killer (scenarios 4,6)
DSell may still be mafia, but I don't think we go in with a predefined plan to lynch him.

If Axxle flips Mafia (scenarios 7,8,9)
DSell could be still be SK (he can never clear himself now that he's allegedly used his shot - since the only way to do so was to have 3 kills last night!)

Actually: with that reason.

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

Note: I still believe Axxle to be scummy as all get out.

What I'm saying is that DSell is scummy 2.

If Dsell is telling the truth, we need to explain 3 blocked kills

If DSell is lying, we only need to explain 2.

We should at least discuss this before lynching Axxle.

[Glooble]

But it will be a much more productive discussion after we know Axxle's alignment, imo. Less theoretical, less "if this than this" stuff that makes my brain hurt.

I'm going to be out most of today. Leaving my vote where it is.

[Robz888]

Here's something I haven't seen explicitly mentioned, but it's a good explanation, probably: the mafia tried to kill the SK (probably not intentionally). The mafia could have shot the SK, not killing him because of the one-shot immune. That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

[Voltgloss]

... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

Again:  no burn intended. 

[Robz888]

... That's probably more likely than them choosing to kill the same person and having it overlap with Doctor protection.

You mean they can't save someone who got shot by two people in the night?

@Voltgloss - Can you confirm the behavior of simultaneous targeting of Doctor, Vig / Serial Killer and Mafia?

Chaplain {Doctor} and Moat Builder {One-Shot Doctor} both protect their target from one nightkill.  So if one Doctor role protects Player X, and Player X gets targeted by two nightkilling roles, then Player X is still going to die (absent any other interference).  The Doctor protection stops one and only one of the nightkills; the "extra" nightkill goes through after the Doctor protection resolves.

If two Doctor roles protect Player X, and two nightkilling roles target Player X, then Player X survives.  Each of the two Doctors prevents one of the two nightkills.

Again:  no burn intended. 

Yes! That's right. We keep forgetting that. Okay. So I think the mafia kill hitting the Serial Killer is probably the most likely explanation for what happened.

Frisk, the reason we should kill Axxle and believe Dsell is because there were no kills. There are only a couple ways for kills to have been blocked: doctor protection, roleblocker, one-shot immunity. Since we have to explain several misfires, we have to seriously contemplate that a Mafia Thief was responsible for one of them. And if so, Dsell is the only person really vulnerable to the Thief, because he is the only person whose kill was announced ahead of time.

It's like this: the mafia are Axxle, and an ally of his. The Thief roleblocked Dsell, so Dsell's kill fails. The mafia targeted the SK, so their kill failed. The SK targeted somebody else, who the doctor saved.

Of course Dsell could be the SK. Actually that might explain a lack of death. IF Dsell is not a mafia, the mafia want to kill Dsell. So they shoot him (possibly and roleblock him, if Axxle is a mafia, which I think he is), but he doesn't die because he is an immune SK. And then... there are no other kills.

Oh. So actually, that better explains what happened. Ugh.

Of course, we'd rather kill the mafia than the SK at this point.

[popsofctown]

I'm mostly just confused

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-4

Axxle (3): Robz888, Glooble, Dsell
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {4}: popsofctown, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Captain_Frisk

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Friday, July 20, at 7:59 a.m. EDT

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

That seems very unlike you.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Agreed - my point was rather that we should discuss it, rather than just lynching.  You seemed to agree with this prior, and since we were up to L-1, I figured I'd cool it for a second to make sure that we were all on the same page before shenanigans occured.

If DSell is a vig - we need to explain 3 kills, and since a doctor only protects against 1 kill, and there are no jailkeepers, the ways for kills to be not register are:

- Multiple people target the same person.  Not an option here because nobody died.  It was in theory possible on nights 1 and 2, where grujah may have shot the same person as mafia or serial killer.  (Barring a pops is unclaimed vig solution)

- Killer is roleblocked

- Kill target is doctored

- Kill target is bulletproof.

If DSell was a 1 shot vig and did shoot Axxle2, then Axxle2 could either be a serial killer (and bulletproof) - which ticks off 1 kill.  Then someone needs to have blocked / doctored Axxle's kill (or Axxle2 no killed) AND someone needs to have blocked / doctored the mafia kill.  It's not impossible.   However - if DSell was lying - and is mafia - then now we only need to explain the blocking and / or doctoring of Axxle2's kill (if we assume SK immunity blocked the first).  Neither scenario is impossible... but the latter requires significantly less luck.

If Axxle is mafia, then roleblocking explains DSell's shot failing.  However, if DSell is SK - then we only need someone to block the mafia kill.  If DSell is truly vig - then again we need someone to block the mafia kill AND the serial killer.

I suppose that of the two of them - Axxle2 being town is still less likely - because as town - he would have actually voted to have himself shot with a town power just for a chance of lynching mafia in Jonah.

I'm still happy having him lynched, I'm just concerned that DSell is Mafia and Axxle2 is serial killer - and as you pointed out - we would rather lynch mafia.  I don't have a compelling feeling one way or another.  Axxle2 could be SK - in which case he knew his NK immunity would save him from DSell - putting his claim into question, or he could be Mafia and he knew he had roleblocking in some protection - so he'd at least survive 1 more day - and again be able to point to DSell suspicion. 

Food for thought.  I've got family in this evening, so I'll probably be reading but not posting a bunch.  If everyone other than DSell and Axxle are on one wagon or the other - I'll hammer it.  Otherwise I'll stay @ L-2 to ensure discussion.  As RobZ pointed out - no rush here.

[Robz888]

@Frisk, I think Dsell might be slightly more likely to be scum at this point than Axxle, but Axxle more likely to be mafia. If Dsell is scum he's the SK. If Dsell is mafia, they are probably both mafia, and we'll be okay either way. SO I still think--think--the Axxle kill makes the most sense?

I understand your hesitance. I'm really worried that the mafia--for all I know, that's you--is laughing at us.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOTE: AXXLE

That takes us back to L-1.

[popsofctown]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

probably

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm mostly just confused

Should we lynch Axxle?

probably

Have any plans to join us?

[popsofctown]

I'd be the hammer vote yes? Axxle hasn't claimed yet, that I can recall.  And people might have last things to talk about.

[Axxle]

Axxle hasn't claimed yet, that I can recall

[popsofctown]

Did you claim VT?  I can't remember whether I'm remembering 1 or 2 doing so

[Axxle]

Did you claim VT?  I can't remember whether I'm remembering 1 or 2 doing so

Yeah, I claimed VT yesterday.

[Robz888]

Pops, I am personally fine with you hammering. I don't know if other people would have objections to it. I think we're all in the same boat (well, except the mafia, whoever they are), realizing it has to be Axxle, but we're just a bit afraid of serious mistakes here, but there's nothing much else to do.

[Captain_Frisk]

Are we done with discussion?  I'll hammer

[Dsell]

I think lynching Axxle is probably just the thing that needs to be done to get any more information. Is it possible that the SK/mafia chose not to kill yesterday? That doesn't seem highly likely but I'm starting to wonder if confusion is not one of the best tactics they have against us. I'm baffled that there were no kills. Also possible that there is just one mafia left and they blocked instead of shooting. But again, doesn't seem highly likely.

[popsofctown]

Vote: Axxle

[Voltgloss]

"I'm aLIVE!!"  Axxle gleefully shouted for the forty-third time.

"Not for long!" rejoindered Robz, bashing Axxle over the head with his wine bottle.  Glooble, Dsell, and SwitchedFromStarcraft hustled the unconscious Axxle into the Estate freezers.  popsofctown shoved him into an ice cream machine and pressed the "Ultra Smooth" setting.

Several hours later, the Estate dwellers sampled Axxle ice cream.  But as the flavor hit their palates, their faces turned pale.  Not the bracing Mafiaesque stracciatelle, nor the heady rum raisiny flavor of a Serial Killer... no.  No, this flavor was nothing more than plain vanilla.

Vote Count 4-5

Axxle (5): Robz888, Glooble, Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown
popsofctown (1): Axxle

Not voting {2}: Tables, Captain_Frisk

Axxle has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night 4 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by 5:30 p.m. EDT, Monday, July 9.

If I receive all commands before the deadline, Day 5 may start early.  I will check at 8 a.m. Sunday, 8 p.m. Sunday, and 7 a.m. Monday (all EDT).  If I have not received all commands by 7 a.m. Monday, the actual start of Day 5 will occur sometime Monday evening.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Six Estate dwellers shuffled into the ruined Throne Room to find the seventh of them propped up on the deceased Lord's seat.  Someone somewhere was running out of imaginative killing methods, because this corpse simply had a good old-fashioned sword through his heart - leaving it easy to see he was popsofctown.  One standard room-search later confirmed that he, like so many of the dead before him, was a Vanilla Townie.

popsofctown died during the night.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Day 5 Start!

Not voting {6}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

You're kidding me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - If Pops had a one-shot ability and died AFTER using his power, would he flip as vanilla (cause at that point he is) or would we know he was a "one-shot X" townie?

[Captain_Frisk]

My first thought is that we should lynch DSell.

My second thought is that we are potentially in Lylo now - which makes me think that we should tread cautiously.

[Voltgloss]

VOLTGLOSS - If Pops had a one-shot ability and died AFTER using his power, would he flip as vanilla (cause at that point he is) or would we know he was a "one-shot X" townie?

Dead one-shot roles flip as "one-shot X" regardless of whether they actually used their power.

[Tables]

Only one death again, but it's someone whose been at least a little suspicious, which makes me still suspect there's possible a SK on the loose. Alternatively we have a cautious mafia, or one whose kill had already been blocked, and no SK. But no SK would require an extra vig which we apparently don't have, so... we do have a SK, and apparently a doctor too. Or plausibly a town sided roleblocker, whose probably found the SK or mafia making the kill (if so, claim!)

Frisk: Why kill DSell? He failed to kill a townie. As mafia, why wouldn't he kill Axxle and hope to brush off the lack of other kill as no SK/Doc save? Because of the presence of a SK, however, we aren't really in LYLO, as even if the mafia have a 50/50 split they can still lose.

[Tables]

Nevermind, just noticed there are only 6 alive, not 7. Which means we probably are at MYLO.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why kill dsell? 

Because if he was telling the truth (that he was a town Vig) then:

1. Mafia roleblocker would have needed to stop him (unlikely, but still somewhat plausible) OR he was stopped by town (I would characterize this possibility as not plausible)
2. We'd still need to explain 2 other potential kills - the mafia night kill and the serial killer night kill.  Not impossible, but less likely. 

The problem with killing DSell without discussion is because if he is serial killer - killing him could lose us the game (if there is 2 mafia remaining). 

The other 2 scenarios:

Dsell is mafia: Night 3 - mafia targets someone else @ night - hoping for a kill (knocking us to 7 or 8 alive depending on serial killer kills).  Claims he shot Axxle - who we then lynch the next day (6 or 7 alive) because he didn't die.  Added bonus if Axxle flips serial killer - as DSell is now clear for the game.  If he doesn't then 1-2 more kills on Night 4 puts us at 4-6 town with 2 mafia and / or serial killer.  DSell is going to look guilty as hell by this point, but it doesn't matter because his claim prevented him from being lynched on Day 3.  This scenario still requires 2 blocking roles (serial killer is blocked / protected, mafia NK is blocked / protected.)

DSell is serial killer: Night 4 - DSell targets someone else (I don't really see an incentive to do this as SK) or is blocked (again would almost certainly to be mafia).  I find the concept of mafia giving up a NK on someone who is not mafia to be less likely - because the longer we stay alive - the better chances we have of learning whats going on.

Also - something i noticed overnight - no rolecops means that roleclaims are completely unverifiable short of killing the claimer. For example - SFS (as mafia godfather) could have claimed one shot cop and as long as he didn't name a bulletproof serial killer as his target, SFS becomes confirmed town for life.  I'm not saying that SFS is guilty, but at this point we need to recognize it as a possibility.  DSell's claim is similarly unverifiable.

I am not advocating DSell lynch (or frankly any early voting) - but I do feel like he is the most likely mafia suspect - for the reasons above PLUS every reason we had for almost lynching him Day 3.

[Captain_Frisk]

One more argument against DSell.

1 Assume that there are 2 mafia remaining
2 Assume there is a serial killer
3 Assume DSell is telling the truth
4 Assume that SFS is telling the truth
5 Assume that you are town

Look at the other 3 people that are alive:
--> They are all scum

Do you believe it?

If not - then one of your assumptions is wrong. 

If assumption 1 is wrong - then mislynching is no big deal. 
Assumption 2 requires another town vigilante.

I'll let you work out your own analysis of 3,4,5

[Dsell]

If assumption 1 is wrong - then mislynching is no big deal. 

Mislynching is a big deal even if there's only one mafia left. We're towards the end-game so I am surprised that you are so cavalier about mislynching even if it doesn't give an immediate win for some.

However, your assumption flowchart appears to be correct. As far as #4 goes, I believe SFS to be town but am not willing to accept that as gospel truth. #3 and #5 are the same for me and I know I am town, #1 we simply don't know, but it is possible. All this and the fact that the people we keep lynching instead of you makes me suspicious, but then I'm suspicious of everyone right now.

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

[Robz888]

I am FURIOUS that we are in this position right now. I blame Axxle. I can't believe he wasn't scum. He barely even defended himself, both times that we told him he was going to die! I thought that he thought there was just no way to save himself, so why bother. But if I were him, and I knew we were about to kill a townie and likely enter MYLO or worse, I would not have gone so gently into that good night.

This is awful, although it could have been worse. If there had been two deaths, we would have been in a no-win scenario, I think. I am pretty mystified that we continue to block night kills. Two people died on Night 1 and 2, and we can only attribute one of them to a Vigilante, possibly. Which means, uh, we have to have a Serial Killer right? I don't know how mafia, SK, and Dsell could have all failed to kill last Night 3, and there only be one kill last night.

I am inclined to trust absolutely nobody at this point, not even SFS and Tables. A bunch of people have been lying, and doing it really successfully.

So, there are 6 of us. The worst case scenario is 3 scum and 3 town. If we lynch the SK and don't block the mafia kill, we lose. If we lynch mafia but lose 2 townies in the night, we still lose.

This prevents us, I think, from massclaiming. Because whoever is stopping the kills needs to keep quiet and continue to block them, because it's lose-lose if we have 2 mafia + 1 SK left.

It's actually sort of hard to believe that that's the case, but there HAS to be a SK. There is no other way to explain the night kills on Night 1 and 2. Because we only had one 1-shot Vig, other than Dsell. Perhaps, though, we only have 2 mafia, rather than 3? I thought the game was more balanced at 3, but maybe we're lucky.

Anyway, anyway, this is bad. Can't massclaim, have to protect the doctor/roleblocker, whoever.

And I have no idea who's who.

[Robz888]

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

Who is more solidly town than Pops? I don't think anybody is, actually.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Dsell - you are correct - myslynching is a big deal.  It's just that mislynching if there are 2 mafia is damn near game ending as town.  I didn't mean to be cavalier - only that of the assumptions to question here - this one is the least impactful if we are wrong about it.  I would strongly suggest that we play as if we have the worst case amount of scum.

All this and the fact that the people we keep lynching instead of you makes me suspicious, but then I'm suspicious of everyone right now.

.

I'm sure that you can see how I would feel exactly the same way about you.

Agreed on the strangeness of the pops kill.  He was on the upper end of my suspect list - seems like an easy dude to mislynch now that we know he is town.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pops is a pretty weird kill? It seems like either a SK trying to hit scum or mafia trying to hit a role, though I never saw any indication that he was a role. So either someone was blocked, protected, or both SK and mafia targeted pops. Frankly I could never read him so I'm glad it's him over someone more solidly town.

Who is more solidly town than Pops? I don't think anybody is, actually.

Come on dude - at this time yesterday you thought really thought pops was more town than SFS?

[Robz888]

No, but I thought Pops was more solidly town than you, Dsell, Axxle, Glooble, or Tables.

[Tables]

More solidly than me is interesting, personally, he was my second suspect to Axxle (and so would have been my main suspect today). But that's all in the past.

At this point, we need to consider even the former near-clears as potential mafia. For me, everyone except Glooble has given good reason for me to think they're not mafia: Robz based on his day 2 behavior, DSell based on the night kill pattern, SFS based on his claim, his posts, Pops clear, and the number of kills makes me think he was probably the one being protected by the doctor, Me because SFS said so and I trust him, and also because IIRC my Role PM said something about being town, Frisk because of his voting on day 2.

Of those, the weakest reasons are... Frisk and of course, Glooble. DSell is looking more likely to be Killer to me (Robz, rejoice!). So if I had to blanket guess the scum teams, those would be it - Frisk/Glooble/O as mafia, DSell as Killer.

[Robz888]

More solidly than me is interesting, personally, he was my second suspect to Axxle (and so would have been my main suspect today). But that's all in the past.

At this point, we need to consider even the former near-clears as potential mafia. For me, everyone except Glooble has given good reason for me to think they're not mafia: Robz based on his day 2 behavior, DSell based on the night kill pattern, SFS based on his claim, his posts, Pops clear, and the number of kills makes me think he was probably the one being protected by the doctor, Me because SFS said so and I trust him, and also because IIRC my Role PM said something about being town, Frisk because of his voting on day 2.

Of those, the weakest reasons are... Frisk and of course, Glooble. DSell is looking more likely to be Killer to me (Robz, rejoice!). So if I had to blanket guess the scum teams, those would be it - Frisk/Glooble/O as mafia, DSell as Killer.

Tables, I think there is zero chance you are mafia, but you could very well be the SK (and you could say the same for me). Pops I have thought to be town, pretty much the whole game. Since we do not want to lynch the SK this round, though, you are the noly person in the clear for me.

But anyway, I sort of agree with you that Frisk/Glooble/Dsell are not looking so good.

Dsell is probably the SK. There should have been 3 deaths two nights ago, not O. I can explain how 2 of them get blocked. I can't really explain all 3. The best explanation is that there weren't 3 kills. There were 2. Dsell is either a mafia or SK. He's probably the SK. The Mafia Thief roleblocked his kill--for fun, I guess? it did set us up to mislynch again while wasting Dsell's shot, so I guess that makes sense, or they may have correctly guessed that Dsell was SK and they didn't want him to lie and shoot somebody else, possibly one of them--and our Townie Hero successfully blocked the mafia kill.

Last night, the mafia again blocked Dsell, because they assume him to be the SK, and they obviously don't want him to get to fire a shot. And once again, we get lucky with the mafia kill?

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

Anyway, I do think Dsell is the SK. So the question is: Frisk or Glooble? Or SFS?

[Robz888]

Another explanation is that last night they didn't block Dsell, they killed him, using up one of his shot protections. And he shot Pops.

It's also possible that two nights ago, they both blocked and shot Dsell. So there were no deaths.

[Tables]

If I had to start with one... I'd lean towards Glooble. But it's far, far too early to choose a target and stick with them. I need to reread day 4.

[Robz888]

Pops did say that we killed the wrong twin.

[Captain_Frisk]

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night?  Roleblock someone else?  Why?  Everyone else is harmless!  Such bad logic!

@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?

[Tables]

At this point, a massclaim would be a very bad idea. I think we can be pretty certain the remaining roles are: 1 Doctor, 2-3 townies, 0-1 Mafia goons, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 SK (there's other plausible cases, but I'm about 90% certain of this). So what would happen? Either everyone claims townie because the doctor doesn't want to out himself, or 1-3 people claim doctor. The SK probably won't as it's too dangerous, so 1-2 people claim doctor. If 2 do, well, good, we've got one pair with one scum. If 1 person does, yay, we just told the mafia who the doctor is.

Still rereading day 5 (I made like no notes on it because it seemed obvious what was going to happen from the start). So no further thoughts yet.

[Robz888]

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night?  Roleblock someone else?  Why?  Everyone else is harmless!  Such bad logic!

@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?

I don't think it's necessarily bad logic. He keeps blocking the SK so the SK doesn't kill him, but he doesn't want to kill the SK, as we continue to mass lynch the town.

Okay, it's not the most likely option, perhaps, and it doesn't change anything. Dsell has got to be the SK. So we look at Glooble, Frisk, and SFS a little bit.

[Captain_Frisk]

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night?  Roleblock someone else?  Why?  Everyone else is harmless!  Such bad logic!

@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?

I don't think it's necessarily bad logic. He keeps blocking the SK so the SK doesn't kill him, but he doesn't want to kill the SK, as we continue to mass lynch the town.

Okay, it's not the most likely option, perhaps, and it doesn't change anything. Dsell has got to be the SK. So we look at Glooble, Frisk, and SFS a little bit.

Hold on - if he keeps blocking the SK - then who killed pops?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Another explanation is that last night they didn't block Dsell, they killed him, using up one of his shot protections. And he shot Pops.

It's also possible that two nights ago, they both blocked and shot Dsell. So there were no deaths.

Except that the SK only gets bulletproof-ness once.  See page 1, under Witch. If someone shot Dsell 2 nights in a row, he'd be dead now, cause we don't have a jailkeeper.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

 * I don't think the doctor would have protected Dsell, just like it's hard to believe that a doctor protected Axxle2 when Dsell supposedly shot him.

[Robz888]

Again, I think a possible explanation is just 1 mafia left alongside the SK, and he keeps using the roleblock power instead of the kill. Although how this game is balanced with just 3 scum in 15 people is hard to understand. Although Dsell is lying, so there aren't 2 one-shot vigs, and under this scenario we don't need a doctor or roleblocker or anything to explain the lack of kills. So perhaps we aren't looking for 2 mafia after all?

In your scenario (1 remaining mafia roleblocker - who blocked DSell for fun on Night 3)... what did he do last night?  Roleblock someone else?  Why?  Everyone else is harmless!  Such bad logic!

@Tables - do you agree with the assessment that a mass roleclaim is a bad idea?

I don't think it's necessarily bad logic. He keeps blocking the SK so the SK doesn't kill him, but he doesn't want to kill the SK, as we continue to mass lynch the town.

Okay, it's not the most likely option, perhaps, and it doesn't change anything. Dsell has got to be the SK. So we look at Glooble, Frisk, and SFS a little bit.

Hold on - if he keeps blocking the SK - then who killed pops?

Uh, grr, yes. True. Okay, yes, that's true.

[Robz888]

* I don't think the doctor would have protected Dsell, just like it's hard to believe that a doctor protected Axxle2 when Dsell supposedly shot him.

The latter thing is impossible--no way a Doctor aligned with the town would do that to us.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLTGLOSS - In the opening post under my role PM (which I won't quote), there are three possible results I would have gotten back from an investigation. (I've already discussed this in the game thread, so no surprises here).  The question I want to ask is too broad (i.e., under what circumstances would I get the 'non-answer' answer) in that there may be too many possible examples to cover, or providing any would affect the outcome of the game.  So I'll narrow the question:

          If I had investigated the serial killer, would I have gotten the 'non-answer' reply?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOLT - A better way to phrase it might be "under what circumstances is the 'non-answer' returned to the player?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Volt - disregard 3084, it present the same problem as my original version.

[Voltgloss]

SFS, I suggest you review the Witch/SK role PM given in the intro of the thread.  I think that will answer the question you're trying to ask.

Also:  if a Spy/Adventurer tries to investigate but is roleblocked, he would get a "no answer" result.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Thanks, it was that last part of your answer that I couldn't figure out how to ask.

[Glooble]

Ok, I realize this is dangerous, but I think it would be worse at this point to hold back information that would help the town.

I am a Town Bureaucrat (roleblocker). I blocked Captain_Frisk last night.

I didn't claim yesterday because I had blocked Axxle. The fact that there was no kill led me to believe he was scum, and we were going to lynch him anyway, so I didn't feel the need to expose myself.

Frisk is almost definitely either mafia or the SK. There is, of course, the possibility that he is town and the SK was roleblocked by the mafia. Personally, I find this unlikely.

I apologize if claiming at this point was the wrong decision, but I didn't want us to spend a lot of time trying to piece together last night without a crucial piece of information.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

VOTE: FRISK

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Going out for an hour or so. Will leave my vote where it is.

[Dsell]

I've already stated why the idea of me being SK is ridiculous, I won't rehash it here. I'm not sure what to think about the mafia, Tables and Robz have really strong alibis for why they can't be, but I don't know that I can still trust those. Definitely more likely that they are Serial Killers though. Glooble I have not been able to figure out this whole game although he has the twinclaim and the vote on O on his side. Again I'm not sure that I can trust that. He could be serial killer too, but I don't see this as super likely. So that leaves C_F, who seems most likely to be mafia. He didn't hammer O, but I've never really agreed that this puts him in the clear. Putting a vote on anyone is dangerous, though, so I guess I'll go back and reread for now.

I don't know, I'm pretty confused, I was sure that there was scum between jo/Axxle, and if not one of them, then pops looked fairly scummy.

Prepost edit: woaaah Glooble claimed. Ok I will have to reexamine to see what I think of this.

[Robz888]

Ok, I realize this is dangerous, but I think it would be worse at this point to hold back information that would help the town.

I am a Town Bureaucrat (roleblocker). I blocked Captain_Frisk last night.

I didn't claim yesterday because I had blocked Axxle. The fact that there was no kill led me to believe he was scum, and we were going to lynch him anyway, so I didn't feel the need to expose myself.

Frisk is almost definitely either mafia or the SK. There is, of course, the possibility that he is town and the SK was roleblocked by the mafia. Personally, I find this unlikely.

I apologize if claiming at this point was the wrong decision, but I didn't want us to spend a lot of time trying to piece together last night without a crucial piece of information.

Glooble, that was a huge mistake. You shouldn't have done that unless we were going to kill you. And I think, after long deliberation, we would have killed Frisk rather than you.

The reason is, this tells the mafia/SK who to kill: you. And you can't block them both (indeed, you may block neither), so you'll probably die.

Since you can't claim, though, you must immediately give a full accounting of your actions Nights 1, 2, 3, and 4.

[Robz888]

If Glooble is correct, Frisk is mafia, Dsell is SK, and other mafia is... who?

Or Frisk is mafia, Dsell is mafia, and SK is... Tables (Tables says me)?

[Robz888]

Oh, by the way, there's no way we have multiple Roleblockers, or a Roleblocker and a Doctor. So if anybody other than Glooble has these roles, come forward immediately.

[Robz888]

If you don't come forward now, we will NOT believe you later.

[Glooble]

Since you can't claim, though, you must immediately give a full accounting of your actions Nights 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Certainly.

Night one I blocked Grujah. He looked the scummiest to me coming out of day one.

Night two I blocked pops. His response to Galz's SK hunt looked scummy to me, and I still hadn't been won over to his general playstyle. He seemed as good a candidate to me as any.

Night three I blocked Axxle, and last night I blocked Frisk.

[Robz888]

You blocked Grujah Night 1? So he might have used his Vig power, and been prevented by you. Interesting.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am not going to participate in mass roleclaiming per Robz's comment and table's comment regarding roleclaiming being a bad idea.  Glooble may be telling the truth, but he hasn't blocked me from killing anyone.

[Robz888]

Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.

You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.

Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.

Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.

[Captain_Frisk]

*Ding Ding Ding*

[Robz888]

I am not going to participate in mass roleclaiming per Robz's comment and table's comment regarding roleclaiming being a bad idea.  Glooble may be telling the truth, but he hasn't blocked me from killing anyone.

We actually need you to, now. Glooble has made that necessary, I think. There is no way that Glooble is a Town Roleblocker, and we also still have undiscovered townie powers. So if anyone has powers they haven't mentioned, they need to name them NOW. Not, like, one vote before they get killed.

[Glooble]

Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.

You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.

Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.

Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.

So either DSell is SK and Frisk is Mafia, or DSell is Mafia and Frisk is SK.

The tricky part being it would be much better for us to lynch mafia.

My guess is DSell = SK. Reason being, mafia would want to keep pops around as a lynch target. He was one of the scummiest-looking players still around.

[Tables]

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

[Tables]

Also, SFS, remove your vote ASAP. It's no danger yet, but if a second vote were unwittingly placed, the mafia (if they consist of two members) might be able to quickhammer, and we lose. There's no benefit to voting now.

[Dsell]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Okay, Night 3 we had zero kills, when we expected 3: Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle, the mafia kill, and the SK kill.

You blocked Axxle, who we know has no power. Meaning we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.

Let's say the mafia blocked Vig Dsell's kill of Axxle. There is actually no way that 2 more kills could have been blocked, no matter who is who. Because the SK can't prevent any kills, and the mafia prevented Dsell's kill. There is... no way to explain the lack of death.

Basically, Glooble is lying, or Dsell is lying.

Robz - I have several problems or questions with this post.

Sentence 3: How do we know we had no townie ability to prevent a kill.  We've only surveyed for other town vigilantes, we've not surveyed for roleblocking ability (and I'm NOT suggesting that we do so).  Granted, there may be balance issues that make your assumption a logical one, but you state it so boldly (and baldly).

Sentence 6:  We haven't determined that the mafia prevented Dsell's kill.  Dsell could be lying.

Now, having said all that, I agree that it is extremely likely that one or both of Glooble/Dsell is lying.  I think Dsell is more likely to be lying, but that may well be because I've been concerned about it for 3 RL days.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

So this post now puts Robz and Tables squarely in disagreement.

And Frisk upvoted it.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Also, SFS, remove your vote ASAP. It's no danger yet, but if a second vote were unwittingly placed, the mafia (if they consist of two members) might be able to quickhammer, and we lose. There's no benefit to voting now.

I don't believe anyone would unwittingly vote, any more than I believe someone would forget (or remember incorrectly, if that's more acceptable terminology) who they had or hadn't voted for.  I'll leave my vote where it is, thanks.

And I note that Frisk upvoted this post as well.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

emphasis mine
Is this a scumslip?  It's certainly redundant, given that Dsell claimed he was a one-shot vig.  Why add this thought? Feeling guilty about something?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

There are lots of other reasons, which I'll not explain in the face of rising discomfort with my vote.

Also, you've gone the whole game without using the term "dude" (well not much at all.  It's just not your style).  Now you've used it three times today.  What's changed? Feeling some heat?

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - yesterday it seemed pretty agreeable that one of the following was scum:  Axxle / DSell.
Today - with Glooble's claim - one of the following is lying: DSell, Glooble.

As long as there are 2 mafia, I know that at least one of the 3 of you is lying (DSell, Glooble, SFS), because there can only be 3 town.  If nobody else has looked at their role and come to that conclusion - they are scum.

All right - time to mow the lawn and figure out how we can prove which one of you is lying rather than just taking a shot in the dark.

[Dsell]

Robz, I think it's silly to completely rule out the idea that there was a single mafia member who chose to block instead of killing night 3. It's a risky gambit, sure, but if it results in the probable lynch of two townies in future days, which would keep them in the game longer so they have more chances to NK, it could be worth it. I don't know if that's what happened, all I know is I shot and it didn't work. But it's the only shot I've taken this game.

emphasis mine
Is this a scumslip?  It's certainly redundant, given that Dsell claimed he was a one-shot vig.  Why add this thought? Feeling guilty about something?

I'm emphasizing that I'm not the serial killer or mafia.

SFS - there are only 2 reasons that you should be voting right now:

1. You are DAMN sure that I'm mafia.
2. You are mafia yourself - and mislynching doesn't result in your death.

4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

Or those 4 votes can lynch mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

As for pressure - you bet I'm feeling it.  When you guys were about to lynch me last week - it didn't matter because I wasn't about to lose the game - there's still information in a mislynch.  You lynch me now and it is over - and you guys play out who's going to win - SK or Mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Lawn looks nice - but no conclusions here.  Will check back in after dinner.

Note on Glooble's claim: since a mislynch effectively ends the game for town - claiming town rolecop here to force a mislynch is a reasonable play.  This particular claim is great because it can't be disproven - even when I flip town.

The problem I have with assuming Glooble's guilt is that he really should claimed something that explained night 3.

I'm going to have some win with dinner and wonder who served it to me.

[Dsell]

Can someone (besides C_F) give me a good reason why I should not vote for C_F right now? Don't tell me "because if there's two mafia they can quickhammer right away" because that's only true if he's not a part of the mafia, and it's JUST as true with any member of the town and it's just as true if we wait to lynch him for x number of days. I mean does anyone really really think that he's town for some great reason that everyone's overlooked? Slash does anyone have great evidence for why Glooble must be lying?

I'm fine with waiting for a consensus but at this point I don't think the mafia is/are going to give himself/themselves away.

[Dsell]

Note on Glooble's claim: since a mislynch effectively ends the game for town - claiming town rolecop here to force a mislynch is a reasonable play.  This particular claim is great because it can't be disproven - even when I flip town.

Roleblocker? There is no rolecop in the setup.

Also, the fact that there was only one kill suggests (but does not mandate) that someone was blocked or protected.

[Robz888]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

[Dsell]

Actually it's possible that Glooble is a mafia roleblocker (or even vanilla mafia) who made no kill, hoping the SK would target town to frame someone for a mislynch. But that seems ludicrously risky to me (a lot moreso than mafia targeting no one on night 3).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

So on this question, Frisk and Robz are on the same side.

[Dsell]

Dsell, do NOT vote for Frisk. Right now if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would choose Frisk. But there's absolutely no reason to vote right now. It's dangerous. Just don't.

Yeah I realize this is probably the best decision. I'm kind of having a rough day so I apologize if I am sarcastic or edgy, I can't let it affect this game though.

I just don't see tons more information coming forward though. The mafia aren't going to stand in line at the gallows, so I feel like this day may just be a bunch of finger pointing and arguing and not much changing. Only exception is if we find Glooble's claim to be verifiably false, but it looks likely enough to me. It doesn't make sense as mafia, especially when C_F quite likely would have been lynched anyway.

[Robz888]

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

OK, here's where I'm at.  I believe Glooble. IIRC my vote reflects that.

On a completely separate, unrelated note, I just can't believe that Dsell actually fired a shot.  Sure, there are some explanations for no deaths on night 3 that could be entertained, but at this point I consider them corner cases unless I've misunderstood the fairly complete examination of the scenarios.

So basically my lynchables are Frisk and Dsell.  I can't pursue much game state analysis in my present surroundings (too many interruptions), but I'd like a fuller understanding of the importance of which order we lynch: SK then mafia, or mafia then SK. Can someone elaborate.  I am unvoting until I'm clear on that topic.

UNVOTE

[Dsell]

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

Or the mafia chose not to kill/chose to roleblock instead of killing, thus setting me up as a liar and likely causing two consecutive days of town deaths.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am not only advocating against voting for me, but for anyone. 

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS, if there are 2 mafia, lynching sk results in 3 on 2.  If the mafia nk goes through, the game is over, as town will no longer be able to lynch mafia. 

This is why I am not voting dsell, because I cant decide what flavor of scum he is, unlike delicious vanilla axxle.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

It's now become obvious to me that I'm gonna have to be unavailable for the rest of the evening.  Have fun all.

[Robz888]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

[Tables]

Apologies for not being available tonight.  I know non-presence is a lot more obvious with this few players, too. I still haven't finished rereading day 4, but SFS's responses to my posts were... eh, they seemed a bit odd. I'll clarify tomorrow (or change my mind, whichever I feel is more relevant after more thinking).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

And how are we going to figure that one out?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Not much happened in 3 hours.  I'll check again in the morning.

[Robz888]

SFS, we must lynch a mafia, not the SK.

And how are we going to figure that one out?

Answer:

What we have to do is continuously run through all the permutations of what could have happened in the night given this person being mafia, this person being SK, etc. And then kill whoever has the most permutations where they are mafia, and it fits with what happened. I guess.

I still assert that Glooble's claim that he roleblocked Axxle Night 3 likely contradicts Dsell's claim that he is a Town One-Shot Vig who shot Axxle. Since Axxle is town, we know Glooble did not block either the mafia or SK kills. If the mafia hit the one-shot immune SK and Dsell is not lying but was roleblocked by mafia, there should still be an SK kill. The only way to explain that would be we also have a Doctor, or the SK took no action to be confusing, or... Dsell is not who he says he is, or Glooble didn't do what he said.

[Dsell]

Robz is right, SFS, but to clarify:

If there is just 1 mafia and a SK, they are both pretty much equal threats and equally appropriate lynch targets, but if this is the case the town is still in a good position.

If there are 2 mafia and a SK, mafia is the more important target, because the serial killer is able to kill mafia at night. If we lynch mafia, the town's in a strong position, if we lynch serial killer, the mafia win if their night kill on town is successful. If we lynch town, the serial killer and mafia could kill each other at night and give the town a chance to win still, but obviously lynching town is never a good plan, especially now.

[Glooble]

I encourage everyone to reread pages 87 and 88. Captain_Frisk's posts on those pages read so scummy to me right now. More than scummy, they read like someone trying to defend O without looking like he's defending O.

On his list (post 2163) he has O in the exact middle of his suspicions. Three (now) confirmed townies in his top three.

Then we get this:

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.

Try to deflect much? It's like he doesn't care where the conversation goes as long as it gets away from O.

More concrete:

Note that DSell at this point is attacking Galz. Then Galz dies in the night. He would have been an awful mafia kill, as with so much suspicion on him, mafia would have wanted to set him up for a lynch. If DSell is SK, though, it makes perfect sense for Galz to have died night 2. Frisk, on the other hand, ends the day voting for pops. If Frisk was SK trying to hit mafia, shouldn't pops have been the SK kill night 2?

DSell is SK. Frisk is mafia. I'm relatively sure of this. I'm not sure when I'll be online again tonight.

[Captain_Frisk]

I encourage everyone to reread pages 87 and 88. Captain_Frisk's posts on those pages read so scummy to me right now. More than scummy, they read like someone trying to defend O without looking like he's defending O.

All right Glooble.  I'll admit it.  This is scummy as hell. 

Let's assume that I'm mafia. 

Well - pops and jonah are dead.  You've just said that DSell is the serial killer.  That means that if we have 2 mafia, the remaining choices are: RobZ, Tables, and SFS.  All of these folks were already bussing O - why on earth would I make such a big stink? 

Here's a more plausible scenario:

You or DSell are the mafia.  You guys realize that you're in trouble because DSell has been on deaths door since his Day 3 near lynch.  You've decided to go for the win with a town roleblocker claim - and hope that you hit convince the town town or Serial Killer.  Hit the SK - and you win.  Hit Town - and at least they are damn near removed from the game. 

Your options are: Me, RobZ or Tables.  RobZ and Tables are much harder targets to take down - and I'm easy because I look scummy based on my pisspoor voting history (Axxle1 mislynch, O lynch disagree, Jonah mislynch, Axxle2 near mislynch (I only failed to hammer because Pops beat me to it - which I thought was scummy as hell btw for doing with no discussion - I'm going to policy lynch O and Pops in all future games)

Just me counterclaiming is dumb - its only going to give mafia information - and you will argue that we need to lynch counterclaimers first.  Bravo to you for jumping out and getting the claim in first - especially after it seemed that that the general feeling was massclaiming was bad.

[Robz888]

There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.

That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.

Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.

What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.

[Dsell]

There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.

That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.

Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.

What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.

You keep saying that our claims are mutually exclusive, and I keep showing you why they're not. Obviously I can't be sure that Glooble's claim is true, but it doesn't seem obviously or demonstrably false, either. His notion that I am SK is wrong but a lot of people have suggested that and they're all wrong.

It is definitely a possibility, an interesting one, that Glooble is mafia, but I can't really tell: his manner has been pretty scummy this game, but consistently so, and ultimately his actions point to him being town, I think. Maybe this suggests that we only have 1 mafia and are not so bad off? Obviously we mustn't work under that assumption. You assume SFS is not mafia, btw, but I'm not sure that's a completely safe assumption anymore.

Anyway if we were mafia, why the heck would we choose to no-kill night 3? Setting up a role-claim down the road that doesn't solve the problem of night 3? No-killing brings huge suspicion on me. If I were mafia I at least would have NK'd Axxle, it's easier to explain 2 missing kills than 3. No, I was set up by the mafia to be lynched.

[Robz888]

But Dsell... surely then, you must believe that Glooble and Frisk are the mafia? And that either me or Tables is the SK? What else could it be?

[Dsell]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

[Captain_Frisk]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Believing RobZ could be SK - ok - plausible. 

Believing that SFS and I are mafia over you and Glooble?  Hilarious!

While you're at it - would you like to throw some more accusations around?  Perhaps  SFS and Tables with the power play early cop claim?

[Robz888]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Okay, well, I'm pretty positive Dsell is scum. That was hunch two days ago before he introduced himself as a One-shot Vig. I think Dsell and Glooble could be a scum pair. Of course if they are both lying about their roles, there has to be a Doctor among us. Of course we don't want him to say.

[Dsell]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Believing RobZ could be SK - ok - plausible. 

Believing that SFS and I are mafia over you and Glooble?  Hilarious!

While you're at it - would you like to throw some more accusations around?  Perhaps  SFS and Tables with the power play early cop claim?

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

[Captain_Frisk]

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

Please walk me through the night kill scenarios for Nights 3 and 4 with SFS and I as mafia pair.

[Dsell]

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

Seriously, we're having to make a lot of assumptions today, good ones and bad ones, but this one is just ludicrous.

Please walk me through the night kill scenarios for Nights 3 and 4 with SFS and I as mafia pair.

They are identical to the night kill scenarios that we've been talking about, where the mafia is any one or two people. Our best explanations for night 3 have come up short but certainly one of you would be the Thief and blocked my night 3 kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

[Captain_Frisk]

The reason why the night 3 kill explanations come up short is because you aren't telling the truth.

[Dsell]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

Night 4 is simple. Either SFS killed pops and the SK's kill was protected by doctor (if we have one) or you attempted a kill on *insert any name here* and were blocked by Glooble, the SK killed pops (which, if Robz is telling the truth, makes him look less like the SK. Except that he would have incentive to lie about his kill, so idk).

Night 3 is where difficulties arise. I attempted to shoot Axxle. Either you or SFS blocked me. You did not attempt a kill at night in order to give us this confusion and make us wonder where the kills went. This would bring tons of suspicion on both me and Axxle, two townies, over the next two days. SK's target was protected.

As usual, night 3 is pretty inadequate. But the above solution makes far more sense than me, as mafia, choosing not to kill Axxle even though I know he will be unprotected and I know that not killing him will make me look suspicious.

[Dsell]

The reason why the night 3 kill explanations come up short is because you aren't telling the truth.

Not true, but you did well setting it up to look that way.

In order to believe that I'm mafia, you have to believe that I didn't take the opportunity to kill Axxle and largely clear myself. That is the most far-fetched idea I've heard yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

@DSell - humor me please.  You have 5 kills to explain - go.

Night 4 is simple. Either SFS killed pops and the SK's kill was protected by doctor (if we have one) or you attempted a kill on *insert any name here* and were blocked by Glooble, the SK killed pops (which, if Robz is telling the truth, makes him look less like the SK. Except that he would have incentive to lie about his kill, so idk).

Night 3 is where difficulties arise. I attempted to shoot Axxle. Either you or SFS blocked me. You did not attempt a kill at night in order to give us this confusion and make us wonder where the kills went. This would bring tons of suspicion on both me and Axxle, two townies, over the next two days. SK's target was protected.

As usual, night 3 is pretty inadequate. But the above solution makes far more sense than me, as mafia, choosing not to kill Axxle even though I know he will be unprotected and I know that not killing him will make me look suspicious.

Ok - so you had to rely on the "mafia no killed" argument.  Let's go back a few posts:

At least with a C_F/SFS mafia pair I don't have to justify things like, "oh they just decided not to kill night 3 even though not killing made Dsell look suspicious and even though they had a pass to kill a townie who would guaranteed not be protected because they wanted to set up a roleclaim for 2 days later EVEN THOUGH the roleclaim would still work if we had killed him..."

So - how does a CF / SFS pair mean that you don't need to justify things like....

[Dsell]

Also, I admit that night 3 works better if Frisk is the only mafia left, but it still works and makes sense if he has a partner.

[Dsell]

Because, Frisk, it's much crazier to think I no-killed when it brings suspicion on me than to think YOU no-killed when it brings suspicion on me.

[Robz888]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:

Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.

But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.

The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.

Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.

Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

I'd like to question this assumption - even if I agree with pretty much all of your conclusion except for the implication that I"m a serial killer. 

If lynching your mafia co-hort is illegal, then the only possible solution is DSell + Me - because we're the only ones left who didn't vote O.  I don't think you and Tables can keep living on the "well we lynched O" thing any more, just like we can't auto clear SFS and tables because of the SFS day 2 claim.

I think understand why glooble and I can't be a pair.  At least - it would be pretty crazy for him to try to lynch me. 

Why can't I be a pair with DSell?

[Robz888]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

I'd like to question this assumption - even if I agree with pretty much all of your conclusion except for the implication that I"m a serial killer. 

If lynching your mafia co-hort is illegal, then the only possible solution is DSell + Me - because we're the only ones left who didn't vote O.  I don't think you and Tables can keep living on the "well we lynched O" thing any more, just like we can't auto clear SFS and tables because of the SFS day 2 claim.

I think understand why glooble and I can't be a pair.  At least - it would be pretty crazy for him to try to lynch me. 

Why can't I be a pair with DSell?

Well, look, when I say "we know it's not me or Tables" what I mean to say is, that doesn't fit the evidence, so it's not likely. I don't know it for sure. It's possible that SFS and Tables are mafia, they engineered the reveal to gain  town credit, and then were happy to kill O, knowing we would never, ever look at them as mafia again. Could that have happened? Yes. I just doubt it.

I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.

Now, O's fellow mafia may have voted for him. I just assume they wouldn't have led the wagon against him when there was no need of it. So, though Glooble did vote for O, and it was a mitigating factor in previous rounds, it's not the most relevant thing to me anymore.

Frisk, I'm looking at who is accusing who now. Dsell and Glooble are not accusing each other, even though I gave them plenty of opportunity to do so. They are both firing at you. If you and Dsell are mafia, Dsell doesn't accomplish much by convincing the town to kill you. The fact that they both think it's you, but if it's you there's no one left for you to be mafia with except I guess SFS, makes me think it's Glooble and Dsell.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - I'm just reacting to your statement of things as fact vs. extremely likely.

[Robz888]

Ok - I'm just reacting to your statement of things as fact vs. extremely likely.

Got it. There are NO facts. Only extreme likelihoods. I use one when I mean the other just for the sake of brevity.

[Dsell]

I know we have to assume 2 more mafia but you can't cite "balance issues" as a reason why there must be 2 more. Have you ever balanced a mafia game? Has voltgloss before this? I'm sure that Volt did his utmost to make it balanced, but he said 2 to 4 mafia. We've ruled out 4 with certainty but we can't rule out 2, it's a legitimate option. Whether it seems balanced or not. But anyway, it doesn't change much for right now. Robz, I didn't see Glooble's roleclaim as a threat to myself, you made it that way. Maybe I should be gunning for Glooble, but when I really can't trust anyone, why should I trust you over his claim? It seems unlikely that you're mafia, yes, but would I put a risky gambit past you? Never. Frisk has been scummy for a while now, but his wagon petered out before. I really think we are on to something here and it's frustrating to see it get me so much heat. It's mafia III all over again, but town can win here, too.

I'm a town woodcutter, like Grujah before me. Ok, believing makes you have to believe some funky things, I get that. But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

[Robz888]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

Here's a possible scenario that describes you being mafia that I don't think relies on any crazy ideas:

You are the mafia roleblocker.  Someone else (lets say glooble) is your goon.  Night 3 your goon made your night kill, because you wanted to block.  The kill either hit SK for no effect, or was protected by town protection.  You may have even tried to kill Axxle to keep your claim alive, but your goon was roleblocked.

Last night - either your protection prevented a SK kill, or town protection prevented one of the kills.  The other protection failed, or maybe the town only had a 1 shot blocking.

What there are the crazy ideas in this scenario?

[Dsell]

But believing I'm mafia forces you to accept some truly crazy ideas.

Here's a possible scenario that describes you being mafia that I don't think relies on any crazy ideas:

You are the mafia roleblocker.  Someone else (lets say glooble) is your goon.  Night 3 your goon made your night kill, because you wanted to block.  The kill either hit SK for no effect, or was protected by town protection.  You may have even tried to kill Axxle to keep your claim alive, but your goon was roleblocked.

Last night - either your protection prevented a SK kill, or town protection prevented one of the kills.  The other protection failed, or maybe the town only had a 1 shot blocking.

What there are the crazy ideas in this scenario?

No crazy ideas, only false information. Are you saying there is a town roleblocker besides Glooble who has not counterclaimed and blocked Glooble, my supposed goon? Or are you saying that Glooble, who's not my goon, is lying and blocked my actual goon? Perhaps you mean that Axxle was jailed? By a traitorous town doctor?

[Captain_Frisk]

No crazy ideas, only false information. Are you saying there is a town roleblocker besides Glooble who has not counterclaimed and blocked Glooble, my supposed goon? Or are you saying that Glooble, who's not my goon, is lying and blocked my actual goon? Perhaps you mean that Axxle was jailed? By a traitorous town doctor?

Yes - I am saying that in the scenario in which Glooble is your goon - that we have unclaimed town protection.  Neither RobZ, Tables, nor I have claimed anything.  That protection is necessary in order to explain night 3 without the use of the nokill explanation.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Okay, let's say there are 2 mafia left, which is what we all assume, for balance reasons. We know it's not me or Tables, because we led the kill O thing. That leaves:

Frisk-SFS
Frisk-Glooble
Frisk-Dsell
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

Glooble and Frisk cannot be a pair. Frisk and Dsell cannot be a pair. So we have:

Frisk-SFS
SFS-Glooble
SFS-Dsell
Dsell-Glooble

If I am willing to rule SFS out entirely, that would actually make it fairly clear who the mafia are. Interestingly enough, SFS has voted for Frisk, and refused to remove the vote. Which is... weird, since Frisk is his most likely scum buddy, if he is mafia.

But if I believe SFS, I am pretty much forced to conclude that Dsell and Glooble are mafia, or at least lying scum.

The thing is that probably all three of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are scum. We just have to lynch a mafia, not the SK.

Of the three of them, Glooble is the one whose behavior makes least sense as SK, relative to mafia, I think. So he's the one I would stake as mafia.

Thoughts? I'm really just talking to Tables and SFS at this point.

Robz - I'm concerned about everyone but me at this point, but I am concerned about you and Tables least. Glooble comes and goes on my list, sometimes approximating my level of suspicion for Dsell and Frisk. He may have me fooled, but I believe his roleclaim and target for last night, which means Frisk is scum of one variety or another.

This is not the only data I have on Frisk.  His non-vote for O I read as straight up "won't vote for my partner".  If there were only two mafia in the game, he wouldn't add ANY momentum to a wagon on his partner.  Whether this helps us decide there is only one remaining mafia, I don't know.  I can't speak intelligently to balance issues for a game I've never played.

Frisk is also beginning to juxtapose my name with his, as if to try and find a way to link us.  This is a good ploy if he is one of a mafia pair, because even if he gets lynched, the remaining mafia would not be completely lost, especially if they could get the town to lynch me.  O (who was mafia) aimed a post at me a hundred years ago (885) that said "you and Frisk sure agree on a lot".  It made me laugh, and I replied (in 886) with "For now ". Now I'm being linked with Frisk again (by Frisk), and it feels like a subtle mafia message.

As to Dsell, I keep working back to a portion of night 3.  It is just hard for me to believe that Dsell fired a shot.  If he did, then one of the following had to happen (regardless of the other non-deaths):

A) Dsell was blocked by mafia.  I can't see this happening if Dsell was town, cause I think mafia gains more (in the then-current game state) from the death of a townie Axxle (bonus if Axxle happens to be the SK) than from the confusion they can create by blocking a vig.  I also can't see it happening if Dsell was mafia, because it's too juicy an opportunity for mafia to miss - mafia Dsell could have had a free pass by town for the rest of the game, his roleclaim having been "proven". I also can't see it happening even if mafia suspected Dsell was the SK.  Mafia would just let townie Axxle die, then NK the SK.  My conclusion: Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.

B) Dsell was blocked by town.  I can't see any town player roleblocking him, for multiple reasons.  First, we gain information on TWO players (the target AND Dsell) if he's not blocked.  Second, no one objected to the choice of Axxle as Dsell's target, and there was plenty of opportunity for discussion.  I tried to prompt some of that by asking a lot of question about the relative merits of shooting Frisk over Axxle.  Third,  though we were wrong about Axxle, he looked bad enough that any town member would likely not stop the shot.  My conclusion:  Dsell wasn't roleblocked by mafia.

c) Axxle was protected (specifically by town, as there no mafia or scum with protective powers, and there are no jailkeepers).  This is unlikely for reasons two and three in Item B above. In addition, given the discussions at the time, and the consensus, a townie would have had to be absolutely certain that Axxle was town to protect him and thereby deny us the knowledge about Dsell's claim.  A cop could have had that certainty, but a cop can't protect.  I can't see a doctor protecting Axxle under the conditions at the time.  My conclusion: Axxle wasn't protected.

Which leads me to: Dsell lied. However, I agree that if he is the SK, we need to wait to kill him.  So the next question I need to answer for myself is: was Pops the mafia kill or the SK kill last night?

[Dsell]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

Sure. I get this. It's logical from a certain perspective. My role claim definitely looked convenient at the time, though I'm not sure how you can look back on it and say it's convenient for me now. Glooble's claim, well that's tougher. If he's mafia and trying to lynch town, then definitely it's convenient, except that it makes no sense in terms of night 3, and the mafia would want to make a claim that fits into all that to look legitimate. We haven't attacked each other much, and that's because you are the one who asserted that our claims counter each other. As far as I can tell, the most likely night 3 scenario means they don't actually conflict.

I think there should be more analysis on SFS. I think I may attempt that later on today.

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

[Robz888]

Okay, the only 4 suspects for mafia are Frisk, Dsell, SFS, and Glooble. 3 of them are attacking the other guy, Frisk. Like, non-stop. I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?

Because I do think there have to be 3 mafia total, and 2 remaining, I tend to see the one person who everybody is going after as the one likely to be innocent. That's Frisk. I think.

[Captain_Frisk]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

[Robz888]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

Well, no to that last part. Either Glooble is the Town Roleblocker or there is no Town Roleblocker. If there is one, he would counterclaim. Now, we might have a Doctor, whether or not Glooble is lying.

[Dsell]

Robz, it appears that our only investigative role was a one-shot, and i feel that woodcutters can easily be liabilities to the town rather than assets. So a lot of help could really be a lot of hurt if weren't careful.

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

[Robz888]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

Well I agree that we could have a Roleblocker and a Doctor. And I guess we could have a Roleblocker and a One-Shot Roleblocker. But there's no way we have 2 regular Roleblockers. If there is another Roleblocker, that person knows Glooble is a liar. I don't see anyone pushing the anti-Glooble case as aggressively as I am, so I am concluding that nobody else is a Roleblocker. Truly, if that assumption is false, that person should probably claim...

[Robz888]

Never mind, I guess we need our Roleblocker to stop the SK or mafia kills hopefully, right?

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ

Well, that was interesting, to say the least. I'm not convinced a massclaim immediately is the best move. I'm also not convinced we couldn't have both a roleblocker AND a doctor, so I'm not even convinced a counterclaim to either role would be beneficial. That said, Glooble's claim doesn't really explain the lack of kills, which makes me wonder... I think he might be rolefishing.

Until a consensus on the way to proceed is reached, do NOT claim Roleblocker or doctor or anything else.

Well I agree that we could have a Roleblocker and a Doctor. And I guess we could have a Roleblocker and a One-Shot Roleblocker. But there's no way we have 2 regular Roleblockers. If there is another Roleblocker, that person knows Glooble is a liar. I don't see anyone pushing the anti-Glooble case as aggressively as I am, so I am concluding that nobody else is a Roleblocker. Truly, if that assumption is false, that person should probably claim...

I strongly disagree with this.  Glooble already has plenty of suspicion.  If we assume that Glooble and DSell are the mafia, then if we roleblocker vs. doctor, then the person who really wants to know is the serial killer....

[Robz888]

I want to know because I want to know whether we should kill Glooble or not.

Although I see now why we need to keep the uncertainty about the roles going, because it's the only thing that might save us here. The mafia/SK could miss-kill, because they don't know about a Doctor, etc. I get it. It just sort of goes against my nature to not want to publicly figure out who everybody is at this point.

[Dsell]

Frisk, your point 1a is silly because framing Axxle as serial killer blows up in our faces when he flips town. Point 1b, that glooble and I are mafia but thought Axxle was serial killer, is, I must admit, remotely plausible. However, even in that case, it makes sense to shoot him and then have him be set up for a lynch and then be clear when he flips serial killer. It's worth the risk either way. Me being mafia and not shooting Axxle is crazy talk. Yet this is not the case, because Axxle was not blocked and he did not die.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Dsell, there's no obvious "here are the mafia" scenario that explains the last two evenings. I have to believe crazy things regardless. I'm shocked that Jo was not the SK and Axxle was not a mafia. I truly, strongly believe those things were the best explanations.

But with only 4 possible mafia suspects left from my perspective (you, Frisk, Glooble, and SFS), and two of them are not attacking each other very much and have both made convenient role claims, well, it looks like you two to me.

Sure. I get this. It's logical from a certain perspective. My role claim definitely looked convenient at the time, though I'm not sure how you can look back on it and say it's convenient for me now. Glooble's claim, well that's tougher. If he's mafia and trying to lynch town, then definitely it's convenient, except that it makes no sense in terms of night 3, and the mafia would want to make a claim that fits into all that to look legitimate. We haven't attacked each other much, and that's because you are the one who asserted that our claims counter each other. As far as I can tell, the most likely night 3 scenario means they don't actually conflict.

I think there should be more analysis on SFS. I think I may attempt that later on today.

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Yes, I agree that everyone should re-examine me.  For the same reasons, someone should look at Tables. I'll try to get to that, since I'm the guy that got us into the "Tables must be ok" situation.  For now, the two recollections I have on Tables are (and these are not accusations, just observations):

a) Mafia godfather would return "town" to my investigation (as would SK that chose investigative immunity, but I agree with a previous poster that an SK worth his salt would choose the one-shot bulletproof option).

b) Tables reaction on Day2 (in 1214) to my investigation result was (quoting only the applicable part of the post, italics mine for separation from my prose in this post)

"SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me)."

This struck me as an odd reaction, because out of the twelve (15 -3) people remaining the morning of Day2, the very worst case scenario (4 mafia, one SK) was seven remaining town.  If you subtract me cause I'm VT at that point (and mafia would be aiming elsewhere, hoping to hit a power role) that leaves 6 town.  I don't think 1 in 6 odds merits a claim of "most likely I die tonight".  However, if Tables were mafia, feigned outrage would be a good play in that circumstance, as it might help to cement presumption of town-ness in our minds.  Also, most people told me what horrible town play it was on my part.  Tables didn't take this tack.

I also think someone should take another look at Robz.  I don't think it would be thorough town play to omit scrutiny of all the folks we're currently reading as town, and I suspect Robz will agree.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

See it's these little things that keep popping up.

First emphasis: The SK can't block.
Second emphasis:  Axxle wasn't blocked (though he may have been protected, but I've covered that in an earlier post).
Third emphasis:  Why would mafia NOT kill the SK?

[Captain_Frisk]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

See it's these little things that keep popping up.

First emphasis: The SK can't block.
Second emphasis:  Axxle wasn't blocked (though he may have been protected, but I've covered that in an earlier post).
Third emphasis:  Why would mafia NOT kill the SK?

SFS:

1st point: If the SK is bulletproof - he can block... 1 night kill directed at him. 
3rd point: The mafia (if they suspected bulletproof) might not want to waste their shot on the SK - but would rather lynch him instead. 
2nd point: I agree that no town would have roleblocked DSell on night 3.  However, a town roleblocker may have blocked someone else - who WAS trying to kill Axxle for DSell.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Pre-post edit: Frisk, you're suggesting that a doctor protected Axxle. That notion is crazy.

Nope. 

I'm suggesting that on night 3, one of the following may have occured - and are not crazy:

1.  Mafia may not have targeted Axxle (to frame his as SK) - or because they thought he was SK and didn't want to waste their shot on bulletproof.  The mafia NK was then blocked by the true SK, or by a doctor.  Actually - you and Glooble being roleblocker + goon and blocking Axxle while not killing him makes sense here if you believed him to be SK.
2.  Non DSell Mafia may have targeted Axxle and were roleblocked by a town roleblocker.

See it's these little things that keep popping up.

First emphasis: The SK can't block.
Second emphasis:  Axxle wasn't blocked (though he may have been protected, but I've covered that in an earlier post).
Third emphasis:  Why would mafia NOT kill the SK?

SFS:

1st point: If the SK is bulletproof - he can block... 1 night kill directed at him. 
3rd point: The mafia (if they suspected bulletproof) might not want to waste their shot on the SK - but would rather lynch him instead. 
2nd point: I agree that no town would have roleblocked DSell on night 3.  However, a town roleblocker may have blocked someone else - who WAS trying to kill Axxle for DSell.

All valid points, and I take no issue with any of them, so thanks for the response.  Regarding point 1, I took "block" to mean an action taken, rather than a passive "occurrence".

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Wow, nothing in an hour?

[Robz888]

SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.

What the hell is this?  Some secret code?

[Robz888]

SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.

What the hell is this?  Some secret code?

I was wondering if SFS still advocated your lynch, because he has voted for you.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, who do you think we should kill? Frisk? I don't think we should kill Frisk, maybe.

What the hell is this?  Some secret code?

I was wondering if SFS still advocated your lynch, because he has voted for you.

Well, at this point, I think we need to examine all our options, because I agree we HAVE to hit mafia.  I want anyone that has issues with me to have time to bring them up, and me to address them.  I've received almost no scrutiny this game, and Table is close behind. We've not fulfilled our due diligence responsibilities.

Having said that, I've made it clear that of the six of us, Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble feel scummier than (forgive the third person) Robz, Tables, and SFS.  I think it most likely there are two mafia left, rather than one.  I also think that, at this point in the game, consideration of potential pairs may be productive, but only if evaluated concurrently with individual suspects.  We've started that process.

I don't know who to kill first though, and given my track record so far, it's not impossible that Robz and Tables are scum, and 2/3 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are my townmates.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'll check back in a few hours. RL duties need to be attended to.

[Glooble]

A lot of activity since this morning. First though, I need to respond to Robz - I'm not defending DSell. I fully believe him to be the Serial Killer. But we need to hit mafia today, and for the reasons I've mentioned, I think that is far more likely to be Frisk. As I explained, I think the night kills point to Frisk as mafia.

As far as his partner goes, I don't think we can rule anyone out at this point.

[Robz888]

A lot of activity since this morning. First though, I need to respond to Robz - I'm not defending DSell. I fully believe him to be the Serial Killer. But we need to hit mafia today, and for the reasons I've mentioned, I think that is far more likely to be Frisk. As I explained, I think the night kills point to Frisk as mafia.

As far as his partner goes, I don't think we can rule anyone out at this point.

Glooble, this answer is deeply, deeply unsatisfying. Because I think the fact that Frisk has no logical partner among the remaining players makes it difficult for me to imagine his as mafia. If your only answer to that aspect is, "it could be anyone," you have a much weaker case. In fact, I don't think Tables is a mafia partner to anybody. Frisk is also obviously not your mafia partner. So is he with Dsell, SFS, or me?

[Glooble]

Unfortunately, I don't really have time for Mafia tonight. I have real life commitments I need to attend to. I will give attention to finding Frisk's partner, but I don't have any ideas right now. Obviously whoever it is, he's pulled a big WIFOM gambit to make us trust him.

There is also the possibility that Frisk doesn't have a partner, which has already been brought up.

[Captain_Frisk]

For everyone's information - I'll be away tomorrow on a business trip.  I'll be lurking via phone no doubt, but no active posting until 9pm eastern.

[Dsell]

SFS has been an interesting character this game. He has done one very, very town thing in a very, very town way. Namely, claiming one-shot cop (I think spy in this game?) day 2 and saying that Tables investigated town. Interestingly, Tables said this didn't clear SFS. But it has mostly been enough to convince everybody that he's town largely because of the noobish nature of the claim.

Since then, SFS has been much less town-seeming and much less noobish. Frankly, I think if he had not made a claim, he may have been lynched for his scumminess by now. He was the hammer vote on O after advocating a lynch on jo. In fact, he was EXTREMELY quiet during the buildup to the O lynch until he hammered. He also hammered jo day 3. He was really critical of Jo for much of the game which I really can't fault him for, since I did the same and since jo WAS very scummy, but still I thought that SFS' case was never highly original.

Basically the only person scummier than SFS left has been Frisk. SFS of course has his claim that has made him look very good, but it's been discussed before that it could have been the idea of a more experienced mafia partner (O or Frisk) to buy him some time. If that's the case, it's worked better than they could have imagined. Here are the possibilities of the claim:

SFS is town and is telling the truth. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is investigative-immune SK or
Tables is mafia chancellor (godfather)

Honestly, it bought him a ton of time for giving us very little new information.

The other option is that SFS is mafia and lying. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is SK, unknown immunity or
It is remotely possible that Tables is also mafia, but this idea has been pretty much thrown out.

If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.

There's no rock-solid case here convicting SFS as mafia. Probably any scum who've made it this far are not going to have huge cases against them. But going back and rereading many, many of his posts, I feel that he is not as much of a noob as his first claim led many of us to believe. So he's definitely in the mafia discussion for me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS has been an interesting character this game. He has done one very, very town thing in a very, very town way. Namely, claiming one-shot cop (I think spy in this game?) day 2 and saying that Tables investigated town. Interestingly, Tables said this didn't clear SFS. But it has mostly been enough to convince everybody that he's town largely because of the noobish nature of the claim.

Since then, SFS has been much less town-seeming and much less noobish. Frankly, I think if he had not made a claim, he may have been lynched for his scumminess by now. He was the hammer vote on O after advocating a lynch on jo. In fact, he was EXTREMELY quiet during the buildup to the O lynch until he hammered. He also hammered jo day 3. He was really critical of Jo for much of the game which I really can't fault him for, since I did the same and since jo WAS very scummy, but still I thought that SFS' case was never highly original.

Basically the only person scummier than SFS left has been Frisk. SFS of course has his claim that has made him look very good, but it's been discussed before that it could have been the idea of a more experienced mafia partner (O or Frisk) to buy him some time. If that's the case, it's worked better than they could have imagined. Here are the possibilities of the claim:

SFS is town and is telling the truth. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is investigative-immune SK or
Tables is mafia chancellor (godfather)

Honestly, it bought him a ton of time for giving us very little new information.

The other option is that SFS is mafia and lying. If that's true, then
Tables is town or
Tables is SK, unknown immunity or
It is remotely possible that Tables is also mafia, but this idea has been pretty much thrown out.

If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.

There's no rock-solid case here convicting SFS as mafia. Probably any scum who've made it this far are not going to have huge cases against them. But going back and rereading many, many of his posts, I feel that he is not as much of a noob as his first claim led many of us to believe. So he's definitely in the mafia discussion for me.

Cool. I think a dinosaur just got credit for being a quick learner.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Unfortunately, I don't really have time for Mafia tonight. I have real life commitments I need to attend to. I will give attention to finding Frisk's partner, but I don't have any ideas right now. Obviously whoever it is, he's pulled a big WIFOM gambit to make us trust him.

There is also the possibility that Frisk doesn't have a partner, which has already been brought up.

I think we have to assume the worst case scenario (2 remaining mafia, rather than one) and play accordingly.

I'm probably going to blow the game up again by saying this, but here's where I'm at.  It sounds like Gloob is convinced that Frisk is mafia (see next paragraph). I think Frisk is mafia.  I think Dsell is the serial killer, and we therefore must lynch Frisk first. I'm willing to stake the rest of my game on it, because I can't foresee myself changing my mind. If I'm wrong, then a "well-played" to the mafia and an "I'm sorry" to my team-mates.  I also encourage people to evaluate my town-ness based on my commitment to these reads.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

* parenthetical should be "(see next post)", which will now be the post after this.

[Robz888]

SFS, I also believe you are town. And I know that about myself. If Tables isn't the Serial Killer, all three of them (Frisk, Glooble, Dsell) are scum. You think Frisk is one of the mafia? He looks like the SK to me.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I definitely believe that you are the SK. Nice job convincing the town otherwise.

As far as pairs, Gloob and Frisk obviously looks extremely unlikely (I guess it could be a complicated bus but eeeeh, nope), Frisk and SFS is more likely, SFS knew the vote on Frisk would not be hammered quickly so it was safe, and has been removed since. Also quite possible that Frisk is mafia on his own and is the thief, which would be the most elegant solution but is one we can't safely assume.

Dsell, I explained when I unvoted that it was to prevent a mislynch if Frisk was piled on by mafia.  My position on Frisk (and you) should be clear after 3190.  If I am successful in leading a Frisk lynch (which I am now actively campaigning for), you'd best kill me tonight, cause I'm coming after you next.

[Robz888]

Frisk lynch is risk lynch.

Dsell and Glooble are in cahoots at this point. I can think of one big, big, big reason for them to be in cahoots.

Tables, help me out here.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS, I also believe you are town. And I know that about myself. If Tables isn't the Serial Killer, all three of them (Frisk, Glooble, Dsell) are scum. You think Frisk is one of the mafia? He looks like the SK to me.

My thoughts are in 3190, and I'm too tired to think anymore tonite. I did have one other thing strike me as odd though.  In 3183, I posted (quoted verbatim and in full, but emphasis is newly added):

"I'll check back in a few hours. RL duties need to be attended to."

In 3186, he posted (emphasis mine, quoted verbatim, but only the first paragraph of the post)

"Unfortunately, I don't really have time for Mafia tonight. I have real life commitments I need to attend to. I will give attention to finding Frisk's partner, but I don't have any ideas right now. Obviously whoever it is, he's pulled a big WIFOM gambit to make us trust him. "

I read it as an attempt, through use of the echo, to link the "whoever it is" with me specifically. Smells like premature deflection.  (Don't you hate when that happens?)


@ Tables - I'd really like to hear you weigh in tomorrow.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Good nite, all. Have fun.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - SFS, based on 3190 + 3195 - that you think I'm mafia, DSell is Serial Killer, and that Glooble is also mafia and is trying to deflect suspicion on to you?

The same glooble that roleclaimed and pointed the biggest possible FOS at me?

Brilliant. 

I'm going to bed folks - will be lurking via phone tomorrow - but no epic posts.  I'm looking hard @ DSell.  I'm liking Glooble as his probable partner, and then 1 of (SFS, RobZ, Tables) as SK, but I'm not 100% sold on these reads.  I feel that as Serial Killer, DSell would have claimed full vig - as he'd be able to claim Grujah / Galzria as one of his night kills.  Claiming 1 shot makes him harmless (and thus not likely to be night killed by SK) after he uses his shot, but if he claimed that he had already used it (on Galzria / Grujah) - then we'd have had no reason to spare lynching him on Day 3.  I feel that as town vig - we have some serious explaining to do regarding night 3 - and I'm waiting to see a believable scenario there relative to DSell is a liar.

[Tables]

b) Tables reaction on Day2 (in 1214) to my investigation result was (quoting only the applicable part of the post, italics mine for separation from my prose in this post)

"SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me)."

This struck me as an odd reaction, because out of the twelve (15 -3) people remaining the morning of Day2, the very worst case scenario (4 mafia, one SK) was seven remaining town.  If you subtract me cause I'm VT at that point (and mafia would be aiming elsewhere, hoping to hit a power role) that leaves 6 town.  I don't think 1 in 6 odds merits a claim of "most likely I die tonight".  However, if Tables were mafia, feigned outrage would be a good play in that circumstance, as it might help to cement presumption of town-ness in our minds.  Also, most people told me what horrible town play it was on my part.  Tables didn't take this tack.

I also think someone should take another look at Robz.  I don't think it would be thorough town play to omit scrutiny of all the folks we're currently reading as town, and I suspect Robz will agree.

You (pretty much) cleared me, early on day 2, when nobody else had looked at me. That made me (as I pointed out a few times during the game) the most likely town person at that time, and also the most likely mafia kill. After the post I kinda realised actually,  I probably won't die, because doctor WIFOM, and indeed I didn't. It had nothing to do with us being likely to lose, more to do with, I was going to die, and dying isn't fun.

If Tables was bulletproof SK, he would know SFS was lying and very likely would have killed him by now. If he was investigative-immune, he would likely be under the impression that SFS was town. Analyzing the possibilities here isn't super fruitful, obviously. But the fact that it didn't give the town much real information actually causes me to doubt it a bit more than I would have before.

I don't think this is really important, but I've run the scenario in my head now, and basically this would be a terrible think for SK!Me to do. It would blow the false cover the mafia had accidentally given me AND telegraph to the mafia I was the SK (who else would kill SFS? Not a vig, and not a (at that point mafia hunting) SK, as SFS was looking very town. The mafia would figure it out immediately). So the town would probably put me under scrutiny and the mafia would very willingly shove it along.

Alright other thoughts now.

I WAS thinking Glooble/Frisk scum, DSell SK based mostly on it being the best night explanation. But after reading the days, I'm leaning much more strongly towards... I'm not sure. My main suspects are still DSell, Robz, Glooble and Frisk. Ironically after having been the only person pretty much saying I was not certain of SFS's obvtown before, I'm much more confident in him now. If I had to wager at the teams, I'd go for DSell/Robz as mafia, and... actually, not sure of killer. Maybe DSell is killer and, uh... I dunno who the other scum is.

So let's start. Robz first, because he's been so scummy today alone. "Nobody claim!" then "Everybody claim!" then ... silence on the matter. Not even a reply to me saying no. Just nothing. Then eventually after about a day, agreeing claiming would be bad. This just rings of mafia trying his luck. On top of that, despite Robz repeated claims I and him can't be mafia, I can certainly imaging he'd have taken the high risk O bus to try and elevate himself to this position.

Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.

Finally in post 3164 we have this possible scumslip:

... I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?...

(Emphasis mine)

HuhWHA? How could you possibly know that? How could it actually matter? Why even mention it as town? I just don't see how you could say anything like that unless it was a scumslip. Explain. Now.

Frisk I'll look at next:

...4 votes ends the game dude.  2 of those votes can come from mafia.

(Emphasis mine)

You sound awfully confident in that. Mind explaining why 4 votes definitely ends the game? I could only see you knowing that if you were mafia and knew there were two scum left...

Other than that... I don't have much on you, actually. Mostly neutral to slightly town read stuff.

Glooble third and... eh. On the one hand I kinda don't believe the claim. On the other, it would make the total roles of the game (some assumptions in here):
Townie x6
One shot cop
Woodcutter
Roleblocker
Doctor
Village Idiot
Mafia Goon x2 (one might be Godfather)
Mafia Roleblocker
Serial Killer

Hmm... I can actually see that setup being plausible. In fact... I'm not sure the mafia Blocker is needed if DSell is mafia, so, eh. For now, yeah, Glooble's claim is not unbelievable. Okay. Otherwise asides from the claim you've been mostly unremarkable (in a literal way, that is).

DSell... most of the evidence against him comes from the night phases. He can't explain Night 3 with his own suspects, without contradicting himself or relying on some very strange events. He also felt like he was hurrying things along earlier today (3116), but mostly, the evidence is scenario based, not post based. Cases where he's mafia or killer are much easier to explain than ones where he's town and his claim is true. And of course his claim is a good one to use as the killer or as the mafia. Generally all that stuff is/has been beaten to death so I won't go into it any more.

So I'm just going to say one final thing, which isn't directly relevant to anything now but wanted to let it be known. Yesterday I was somewhat inactive and intentionally didn't vote; I wanted to see what wagon would build up on Axxle, especially if he flipped scum, and without myself on it, I thought it could be informative. Unfortunately he flipped town, but that does make me think the mafia were probably happy to egg it along and make it happen as quickly as possible. I mean, the town were doing it already, but maybe someone would have come along and said wait a sec, maybe he's telling the truth.

[Robz888]

So let's start. Robz first, because he's been so scummy today alone. "Nobody claim!" then "Everybody claim!" then ... silence on the matter. Not even a reply to me saying no. Just nothing. Then eventually after about a day, agreeing claiming would be bad. This just rings of mafia trying his luck. On top of that, despite Robz repeated claims I and him can't be mafia, I can certainly imaging he'd have taken the high risk O bus to try and elevate himself to this position.

Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.

Finally in post 3164 we have this possible scumslip:

... I don't see how Frisk can be the only mafia left. If Glooble and Dsell are not lying aboutt heir roles, we had kind of a lot of townie power to help us with... 2 mafia total and an SK? Neither mafia a Godfather, even?...

(Emphasis mine)

HuhWHA? How could you possibly know that? How could it actually matter? Why even mention it as town? I just don't see how you could say anything like that unless it was a scumslip. Explain. Now.

I will have to go back and look to see how exactly the O kill was decided upon, but as I remember it, Grujah's lynch was imminent, I protested, O and Galzria attacked me, they came off looking badly, I asked which the rest of the town would rather lynch, Tables quickly suggested O, I agreed on O, so did others, that was that. But I can look back.

But this supposed scum slip is easy enough to explain. I was exploring the case where there were only 2 mafia total, including O. O was a Mafia Goon. This 1 other mafia, I assume, still has to be a Mafia Thief, in order to explain some of the lack of kills. Herego, no Mafia Godfather. Make sense?

I don't think the scenario where there were only 2 total mafia in the game was likely, but if it was the case, I don't see room for a Godfather, being that one of the mafia is a confirmed Goon and the other likely has to be a Thief to explain some of the missing night kills.

[Dsell]

Now, I really need someone else to go back and check this, but... I felt during day 2, I was pretty much the main person starting and leading the O wagon, with Robz joining soon after it looked like it was taking off. Robz seems to like to paint a slightly different story, with him being at the front along with me. Why does that matter? Well, which rings of mafia bus more: Starting a bandwagon out of the blue on your teammate, or joining one that looks like it might have ground and pushing it? I'd say it's the second: If the first is the case, that does make me less suspicious of Robz.

I noticed this in a big way when I looked back on SFS' actions day 2. This is gonna be a big post with lots of quotes, fyi.

Here is where Robz first mentions being actually suspicious of/willing to lynch O. O lands right in the middle of his suspicion list, beneath two confirmed townies.

So Robz, what do we do from here? I still think you're townie despite not liking the Grujah-Robz link. We have two likely wagons ATM, and it's clear to me at least that O, Galzria, Glooble, Popsofctown and obviously Jo will not be voting for Jo, because we all get townreads from him. And you're stopping a Grujah wagon. So where do you think we find our scum to lynch?

SFS and Tables are NOT mafia. Dsell and Axxle I think are unlikely mafia (though it could be one of them is, and they will sweep in for the hammer). Grujah, due to recent events, I am also willing to acquit.

These are the people I am willing to consider as mafia at this point in time. The eager bandwagoners, if you will.

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

In roughly that order, is my suspicion. I'm hoping Pops will actually help me out here, because I still don't think he's mafia, and the rest of you have criticized him too much. I also know I should probably do the daunting work of looking back to see which of these people voted for who what when where. Honestly, though, with so much having happened, it would have been easy to vote for fellow mafia at one time or another. None of those wagons took off, except this one.

Glooble, actually, I like that he unvoted. He had no idea what I was going to say, and he didn't know that unvoting right before what I was about to say would make him look good. So he deserves credit in my book. I'm willing to be wrong about Jo. Still don't think I am, but I am willing.

O, this is a question to you: which of Galzria, Frisk, Jo, or Glooble, do you think is mafia?

In his very next post, seven minutes later, he's changed his tune a bit and is more confident that O and Galz are mafia, and they (and jo, and even Frisk to a lesser extent) are the ones he suggests could be mafia in the next couple pages. Note that O has zero votes at this point. A couple pages later, Tables comes along and votes for O, citing Robz' argument with O but noting that Robz had exaggerated. Skip ahead another couple pages (to 86), Robz comes back and again puts Galz then O atop his "want to lynch" list. Tables then makes a huge case against O, followed by this post by Robz, in which he votes for O.

@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.

Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.

VOTE: O

Robz had been suspicious of O before Tables voted but he did not specifically say he wanted to lynch O until 9 minutes before he actually voted and long after Tables made his case against O clear. Maybe this is semantics, but I would challenge Robz to quote the post where he "asked which the rest of the town would rather lynch" as he claims in the above post. He'd thrown suspicion on them and others but it wasn't until Tables had made a thorough case that he said, "Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick."

None of this seemed really wrong at the time, which is why nobody was immediately suspicious. But I believe the tale has been steadily getting taller and taller, and Robz has repeatedly cited this vote as why he unequivocally cannot be mafia. Tables is the one who made the strong case against O and Robz pretty clearly just went along with it. Now, who knows if he thought the wagon was going anywhere, but Ray Charles could have seen how scummy O was being and I would certainly not put it past a mafia Robz to bus his partner very early in this case. And yet, he has used this to say that he (oh and tables too sorta kinda I guess) was the champion against O, and Robz is now cleared for the game. Here's one post where he makes this claim:

I believe that mafia would vote and accuse fellow mafia under certain circumstances. I just don't believe they would do this if they didn't have to. Grujah was going to be lynched until I told everybody to stop. Then I narrowed it down to O and Galzria, and put it to everybody else to say which. Tables said O. For this reason, I think neither me nor Tables should be considered as mafia. If either of us are mafia, we killed fellow mafia O fairly needlessly.

Again, show me where you "put it to everybody else to say which." You can't. You throw suspicion around, but you never even suggest a lynch until Tables has meticulously laid out a case. The closest he comes is asking what Tables, Axxle, and I think of his suspicions of Galz, O, jo, and Frisk. Anyway, here's where he ADAMANTLY asserts that he is not mafia, and I believe this is where our tale is at its tallest:

brisk lynch!  That one is alot more powerful... a nice walk on an autumn day over to have a brisk lynch of good old Captain_Frisk.

---- so where does this leave us? ----

We all want to lynch everyone else, except for Tables and SFS... and we want to let DSell live for a day, and we probably want him to target someone.

List time:

That leaves 6 of us:

The double-bad voters:
pops
Jonah
Frisk

The potential bussers:
RobZ
Glooble
Axxle

Semi-off the table:
SFS
Tables
DSell

Note: I'm going to assume 2 mafia + 1 serial killer for the rest here - because after looking at the setup of M3 - I tend to think that we can't have less scum for more people - and since no-one has counterclaimed DSell - we have unexplained night kills which implies SK.

Would the mafia tend to split up on the potential O bussing, or all stay in one pod?    If one could bus, then why not both?  I'm having a hard time viewing both Jonah and Pops as mafia with O.  I could believe any combination of RobZ / Glooble / Axxle2, with a little less suspicion on Glooble - although the same PoE analysis that pointed @ DSell would point to him.

I could see all of us as a Serial Killer, including the folks off the table - except for SFS.

I'm leaning toward an Axxle2 lynch + a DSell target on... I don't know who.  I'm starting to believe DSell, and the double bad voters are so scummy that it's almost like we're begging for it.

Is it time for a pops / Tables style suspicion list?

Um, actually this makes me suspicious of you. There is no way I am a member of the mafia. I derailed the killing of innocent Grujah, requested a consensus on whether to kill O or Galzria, then was like the first or second person to vote for O, and then O died and was mafia. So the fact that you can believe any mafia combination that includes me (and you said Glooble was the one with less suspicion??? Not me?), makes you look very, very bad, once again. Because it looks like you forgot the fact that I cannot be mafia.

Frisk quickly pulls back all suspicion of Robz being mafia. But an interesting point is brought up here. Glooble. Who Robz accuses me of being in cahoots with. So what was Glooble doing when O came under fire? Well, after Robz had listed who he was suspicious of but before Tables made a case/voted, Glooble listed O as the most suspicious person, by a good margin actually:

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

I buy that that group likely contains at least one mafia. I could see 2. I think 3 would be stretching it, because it would be a pretty dumb mafia team to all jump on the same quick-forming bandwagon when one of them staying off of it could make that one look really good for D2, and a no lynch is not an awful scenario for them either (though with the vig it is riskier.) So for the sake of trying to get a consensus on a less scummy lynch, I will go ahead and weigh in. Most suspicious to least right now:

<--O----(pops)-Galzria-----jo--Captain_Frisk->

I include pops because I still think him more likely scum than Galz. Pops has stayed out of this last bit of discussion while keeping his vote parked on Grujah, which reads worse to me than Galz's defending of the bandwagon. This could, however, simply be because pops went to bed at a semi-reasonable hour.

I'm starting to warm to the possibility that *gasp* my read on jo might be wrong. His "lynch anyone" attitude today is reaching absurd levels. CF has actually done almost nothing to warrant suspicion from me. But O has been all over the place today, and getting jumpy and defensive for seemingly no reason. So if an O wagon develops, I could get behind it.

I want to hear from SFS and Tables about Grujah though. They are the closest thing we have at this point to confirmed town, and if they think lynching him is the right move that will put things in a different light. Plus I want someone else's read on this Galz/ Robz/ jo fight and who looks worse.

So while Robz is clearing himself for spearheading the O lynch, he is claiming that Glooble, who said O was the most suspicious even before he was under real fire, is mafia. At the risk of looking super duper chummy with Gloob, this accusation seems disingenuous. Glooble was the third vote on the O wagon.

Also interestingly, O listed Glooble as the most suspicious person before there was a vote or really even much of any suspicion on him. Maybe Glooble's suspicion was an OMGUS, but the fact that they both listed each other as most suspicious before there was a real bandwagon going suggests to me that they're not a team. If O had listed Gloob as most suspicious when it was looking like he would be lynched, well there's WIFOM there but I would be more suspicious of Glooble in that case.

So after looking back at SFS, I found some things to make me really concerned about Robz, and this is not even incorporating his actions the last two days. After looking back, Glooble and especially Tables are looking not very like mafia to me while I now must fully retract my position that Robz is very likely not mafia. I'm not saying it's the most likely thing, but the fact that Robz' recounting of the O bandwagon does not quite match up with the facts makes me worried that the town is being essentially led by a false leader.

[Robz888]

Dsell, you begin the tale too early.

Day 2: After a long day and several failed wagons Grujah foes to lynch-1. After Galzria takes the penultimate step toward lynch, I immediately cry "Stop, halt, desist" and Glooble unvotes. [#1982]

I deserve some credit for preventing the lynch of townie Grujah, don't I? I then go on to say how scummy the various people on the wagon are. You're right that my attention isn't initially on O. But O and Galzria's reactions to what I'm saying drives them to the front of my suspicions. Soon after, I make the following post. Here is where I asked the town to choose from my most likely suspects:

Anyway, I need some help from the people who are NOT indicted by my theory. So, I think the likely mafia are among O, Galzria, Jotheonah, and Captain Frisk. While not forgetting about Glooble and Pops, who I still think are less likely.

What I would like is for everyone who is NOT those people to tell me A) If they buy my theory, and B) which person of those listed above is the most likely mafia. Then we can vote for that person.

At this point I do list O and Galzria as my top suspects. It actually gets pretty nasty between me and O--I end up apologizing to him for being a little mean a couple posts later. That I am fighting with O and Galzria is not lost on Jo, who posts:

Take a step back from this O-Robz-Galz fight and tell me it looks like 3 townies squabbling.

It doesn't look that way to me. The longer the argument goes on, the worse O and Galzria look.

Now Dsell, you are right that Glooble does list O as a top "suspicion" person. But he didn't vote for him there. It's easy for mafia to "suspect" fellow mafia. Tables, right after this, does his post choosing and voting for O:

Okay, now read up to my last post. I hadn't even fully comprehended the bandwagon at the time of the last post.

I agree with Robz, but think he's exaggerated his numbers somewhat. I think there's almost certainly a mafia among the twice bandwagoners, but am not sure who it is. The whole debate with O has made O look even more terrible than he already was. Unfortunately I now don't have time for a full analysis, but my spreadsheet comments are: "Total failure of a defence w/ strawmanning (1942). Vote: Glooble (1955). Vote: Grujah (1974). Poor reasoning for defending vote (1989). More strawmanning a good argument (2005-6)"

In short, O's play has, since being called out on what should have been a single small mistake with my loyalty, become panicy and erratic. What's more interesting is he dismisses Robz arguments out of hand simply because of the exaggeration, but uses (totally serious) exaggerations of his own, e.g. in 2050 and also in e.g. 2031 he seems to think any theory involving him being mafia is 'crackpot'. Together with the posts I actually directly recorded for being terrible, this isn't exactly a good track record.

It's okay though. He made some good posts in day 1, which I recorded. This includes... wait, no, nevermind, I didn't see any good, pro-town posts of his in day 1 I thought were worth recording.

Vote: O

Next, Frisk goes for Jo. Axxle goes for Galzria. And then I join Tables in voting for O:

@Tables, I agree with what you said. For the record, I also think my theory could be wrong. But I'm going to bet it isn't.

Uh, I am willing to agree on O as the correct pick. His misstatements of facts, his over defensiveness, his entire dismissal of things... probably that's who we should go for. Add in the fact that if some, but not all, of the mafia voted Axxle1 yesterday... and then we had not enough people getting on wagons all day, so mafia O comes in to put it closer to the top... it makes sense, ish.

VOTE: O

I am the second person on the O vote.

Basically, it looks to me like it happened pretty much the way I said it did: I stop the Grujah wagon (it was L-1!), accuse all the Grujah voters, Galzria and O react the strongest, I point my finger at them, Glooble says he suspects O, Tables votes O, I vote O, Glooble votes O, etc.

Now Dsell, you are right that Glooble does get some points here, now that I look at it again. However I don't ascribe much wait to the fact that he ranked O high on suspicion, but didn't actually vote him until Tables and I did. That's not to say it doesn't get any weight. It's worth something. It does complicate things.

Because the only living people who never got on the O wagon at all were you and Frisk.

[Glooble]

Wait, wouldn't only two mafia make more sense if they were both power roles (a thief and a chancellor)? It seems like it would balance things somewhat. Did Volt say anything in the opening posts to disallow this possibility?

[Tables]

No, but O flipping generic Goon does weaken the theory a little.

[Tables]

Interesting now how even history seems to be being questioned. Robz explanation of his supposed scumslip is making me go derp, although I still find it a little odd that Robz highlighted the lack of Godfather in particular.

I did some looking back and this is, as far as I can tell, the first time O comes under fire.

Joth's wagon now is interesting. Now the votes are down to 4, though, I think I need to look closely at when people unvoted. I suspect that, if Joth is town (which I still think there's a less than 50% chance of), then some of the mafia were probably on it, and probably jumped off vaguely when the wagon started to look unlikely to succeed - as then suspicion would fall on those still on the wagon if/when we knew Joth's loyalty. That would make Axxle and... I'm not sure who else potential suspects.

I've looked over my notes, and it seems to me the player whose contributed the least in terms of analysis I thought was notable, is O. Which is suprirsing. I think I mentioned this briefly at the end of day 1, that I found something odd about his posts, but now I'm beginning to think he may have been playing a long IIoA game. I've just reviewed his posts in the last 20 pages. There are I counted, all of zero posts where I found him make useful, new analysis. The closest he really seemed to come to contributing anything particularly was when he linked to the Tarlihunder tells (or whatever).

I'm not going to vote for O, because I'm more suspicious of Joth and don't think we'd lynch him today unless a lot of other people are suspicious of him, but so everyone knows, FoS: O

Me and him have a little back-and-forth following this, and he slips up and is jumped on by a few people. Pops, Joth, me, Axxle all jump onto O and demand an explanation. At this point O is already in deep water. It's only after this that Robz starts to push the case more. Especially, Robz first reaction is:

Couple things.

O made a mistake. Well, that's something. It's not nothing, and we shouldn't ignore it. But his explanation--it was just a townie mistake, he's been on vacation, that SFS-Tables thing was like 40 pages ago during the longest round ever--is okay-ish by me.

Pops, I don't trust Glooble's read of Jo better than I trust my own. If Glooble was an experienced Forum mafia player to the degree his brother his, I would agree with you. If they were on an equal experience playing field, and I trusted Glooble, I would agree with whatever he thought about Jo. Since this is Glooble's first game, I find it perfectly reasonable Jo could fool him. Maybe not in person, but online? Sure.

The rest plays out with Robz stopping the Grujah lynch, which is definitely earning him townie points and is why he's survived pretty much unscathed until today. But now... townie points help but don't exonerate.

[Robz888]

As far as I am concerned, Tables is exonerated from being mafia, but not Serial Killer. I do think there is a difference in Tables's anti-O activity and Glooble's. Tables put the first vote on O at a time when I was pushing the town to select a new wagon. You just wouldn't do that to your partner.

I can see Glooble's vote as a calculated move to join the wagon of a cohort. Even though it was just the 3rd vote, I think it might have been clear to GLooble that O was going to be lynched. He had overreacted so crazily that everyone was wary of him.

But I don't know. Does this make Frisk and Dsell look even worse? They did not get on the wagon.

Really, I'd bet it all on Jo/Axxle, and that was wrong. So I will sort of follow what Tables thinks, if he has any strong notions about who we should lynch here. I'm just very alarmed about lynching Frisk when he seems to have no living friends, and thus no partner.

[Dsell]

Frisk's biggest friend in this game is Robz.

[Dsell]

With that long post I'm not trying to say that Robz is mafia and glooble is town, I'm really just trying to say that in terms of that bandwagon, they're on a fairly level playing field. Yet Robz has tried to use that to say that he can't be mafia while simultaneously accusing glooble of being mafia. I believe that either of their votes could have been calculated bus votes based on O's scummy reaction.

I think Robz does deserve some credit for stopping the grujah wagon. At the same time, that strikes me as the type of thing mafia Robz may do to appear consistent with town Robz. Ask yourself if you would have been suspicious of Robz if he had hammered the wagon instead.

[Robz888]

With that long post I'm not trying to say that Robz is mafia and glooble is town, I'm really just trying to say that in terms of that bandwagon, they're on a fairly level playing field. Yet Robz has tried to use that to say that he can't be mafia while simultaneously accusing glooble of being mafia. I believe that either of their votes could have been calculated bus votes based on O's scummy reaction.

I think Robz does deserve some credit for stopping the grujah wagon. At the same time, that strikes me as the type of thing mafia Robz may do to appear consistent with town Robz. Ask yourself if you would have been suspicious of Robz if he had hammered the wagon instead.

I think that in terms Day 2 voting, Glooble and I are in nowhere near the same position. My actions prevented innocent Grujah from dying and caused guilty O to die. Glooble was voting for Grujah when I objected. I think Tables is in a similarly innocent looking position as me coming out of Day 2, and I think a reasonable person would conclude that either of us could still be the Serial Killer.

[Dsell]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

[Robz888]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

[Voltgloss]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

[Dsell]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

While I'm not sure that is 100% factually correct, that is exactly the part of your post that I did not quote.

[Robz888]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

DId SFS unvote Frisk?

[Robz888]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I had an argument with O and Galz because I was accusing them. I was going along with my plan, which was to lynch either Galzria or O, depending upon who the town found scummier.

[Voltgloss]

I was going to do a vote count, but I believe there are currently no votes pending.  If that is not right, someone please correct me - thanks.

DId SFS unvote Frisk?

At #3123. 

[Captain_Frisk]

I think it's quite arrogant of you to say that you look "caused guilty O to die" and that you and Tables are "similarly innocent looking." Tables led that lynch, you had an argument with O and Galz and were willing to go along with it.

I don't think it's arrogant at all. I think it is 100% factually correct to say that. We would have lynched Grujah if I hadn't objected.

Wouldn't Grujah have claimed, and then we would have let him live?  No more claiming single handed Grujah saving

I Saved Grujah by unvoting instead of using my masterful debating skills to press on for a lynch.

Hallelujah!

[Tables]

Okay, I know I was actually the one who bought this up, but the current argument is useless and pretty meaningless. Grujah was lined up for a lynch. He probably would have claimed. If I'd been there, I'd have likely done the same thing as Robz, but a lot less forcefully. Still, Robz was probably responsible for avoiding a Grujah mislynch on day 2. He was almost certainly responsible for not requiring Grujah to claim first. That's how I see it.

[Robz888]

Tables, while you're hear, who are you currently leaning toward as the best lynch? I am genuinely curious, and I only really trust you and SFS, and I know what SFS thinks.

My mind is very very un-made up. Frisk and Dsell are the two non-O voters, but Dsell and Glooble are going anti-Frisk right now, making me think they are the pair. And of course they are the claimants.

[Tables]

It WAS actually you, but with the obvexplanation of the scumslip you're definitely not my top one, probably not top two any more. I'm still about 80% certain DSell is scum, which is ridiculous odds, but lynching Killer is of course really bad right now, and I'd say he makes enough sense to be killer. I'm less sure on you, I know it's not me, I'm still pretty confident on SFS mostly based on his analysis, behavior and also, I really don't think the town has no investigative roles (and any other would surely have outed useful information by now?). That leaves Glooble and Frisk. And well I can believe Glooble's claim, but I can also disbelieve it. But I'm a little more inclined to believe it. Frisk... I'm really struggling to say. I've townread him days 4+5, but looking back, I can see I might have had a false negative on him. What he did certainly exonerated him less than what you did exonerated you, and I've shot at you quite a bit.

So... I'm leaning towards Frisk or DSell. I really think I need to look back at DSell's attitude towards various people during days 1-2, especially towards O. It's one thing my notes can't do; I can't record how every person has treated every other person, and especially can't do it in a way that'd make posthumous I-know-X's-loyalty-now analysis useful. But rereading can take a while, so I dunno.

[Tables]

That said, I can immediately point out that (missing votes excluded (only missing votes are likely to be RVS ones)) DSell has never voted for anyone currently alive, or for O - i.e. He's never voted for anyone but a townie. I don't think this is strong evidence however for a variety of factors so don't think this is something to jump on. It's actually barely worth noting, but IS worth noting.

[Dsell]

IIRC, I've only voted for jo, Galz, and Axxle2 in this game. So yeah, bad odds, but I really haven't been throwing my vote around, either.

[Robz888]

Tables, okay, thanks for that. That's fairly helpful. It probably is toughest to see Glooble as a liar, if we are looking at the three. He did go for O more strongly than I had remembered, and he was the third person to vote O. My notes had him as the fourth, so I think I got that wrong in a couple posts, possibly. It's like an exponential curve for me--being the 3rd person on that wagon makes him look a lot better than being 4th, I think.

If it's down to Dsell and Frisk... you're right that Dsell has to be scum of some sort. In my view, he has not argued on behalf of himself well at all. I don't think he's had convincing explanations for night things. I don't think he's been quite shocked enough in the mornings. But he just does look more like SK.

So that leaves Frisk. Do you understand that my big hangup with him is that he is so friendless right now? Yeah, I know, I'm his friend. But I know I'm not mafia, so that doesn't help me figure out who his scumbuddy could be.

[Dsell]

Robz, way back in the mafia 1 discussion quicktopic, I was shocked that people (especially O IIRC) weren't more shocked with the deaths in the morning. Someone said that was unproductive as town and not actually a scumtell. It made sense to me so now I just try to move forward and use the info we get in a productive way.

I'm glad to see you're back and posting Tables, it will be interesting to see what you come up with. I'm surprised that you're so convinced I'm scum but I don't see much I can do about it besides continuing to scumhunt. Honestly I've mostly made my decision and I rather doubt much will change for me the rest of the day.

[Tables]

I understand Robz, but I also think it doesn't matter. At this point he's suspicious, so town wants to lynch him, and it's near the endgame where the mafia want to make their mad dash to the finish, so they're probably willing to bus to avoid suspicion on themselves. If I were mafia and Frisk were my teammate, I wouldn't be overly fussed at this point for him to be lynched; or rather, I wouldn't want to stick my head out to defend him.

[Captain_Frisk]

I am very offended that you guys don't think I have any friends.

I'm going to run through a potential pairs spreadsheet this morning, as we are down to only 15 possibilities. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - All right - I did a first pass "gut feel" on the plausibility, and came to the same conclusion.  The next step would really be to go through the next level of pairing and add the serial killers (goes up to 60 possibilities - and actually map out who needs to be what)  I'm not sure I can really do that.

Glooble actually comes out with the most plausible scum rating - I expected DSell to win this hands down.

Tables based scenarios looks the least scummy.  The problem with a Tables as mafia is that if SFS is town - Tables needs to be a godfather.  Unfortunately, a godfather scenario doesn't really fit well with the theory that we have a mafia roleblocker.  2 power roles for mafia doesn't seem especially likely - although Godfather is barely a power role if there the only cop is a one shot. 

Brief side note: I considered giving the Tables / SFS pairing a 1 - but the fact that they are both still alive gives this pairing a little more plausibility.  Added bonus - if Tables was a godfather - if he was night killed or otherwise lynched - it would clear SFS's claim!

My most plausible scenario was Glooble + DSell.
 
My least plausible were Me + Glooble.

Full table in next post (done on a separate machine)

tl;dr;  I didn't learn anything.- my gut still says DSell.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I'm in and out a lot today, but will check in frequently.

[Captain_Frisk]

Full table as promised.

I basically gave all of the tables scenarios 2s.  Same for SFS, but I bumped up the SFS + Glooble scenario, but I'm less convinced.  I gave 2's to the scenarios of people who are gunning for my head out of the gates today (DSell / Glooble)  The best scenario in my mind still looks like Glooble / DSell, but its not a slam dunk.

As i noted previously - this was gut feel... defaulted to 3 if the scenario was plausible with a few seconds of thought.  Happy to debate my views on any of them.  Naturally - in my personal sheet I zero out all of the pairs that deal with me - but that's not helpful for the rest of you.

Mafia 1	Mafia 2	Plausibility	Notes
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	3
Captain_Frisk	SFS	2	SFS has been trying to lynch CF for a long time.  SFS expected to be town
Captain_Frisk	Tables	2
Captain_Frisk	Glooble	2	Came out with a claim to attempt a CF lynch - way too early for a bus
Captain_Frisk	Dsell	2	Dsell had to be convinced to shoot Axxle instead of me.
RobZ	SFS	2
RobZ	Tables	2
RobZ	Glooble	3
RobZ	DSell	3
SFS	Tables	2	This is an extremely risky early game claim - but not unplausible - especially given that they are still alive
SFS	Glooble	3	Glooble tee's up suspicion on CF -> SFS immediately votes?
SFS	DSell	2
Tables	Glooble	2
Tables	DSell	2
Glooble	DSell	4	Have backed off on working together - but this still feels like the most likely pair

Totals:

Glooble: 14
DSell: 13
RobZ: 13
Captain_Frisk: 11
SFS: 11
Tables: 10

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Frisk, I want to make sure:  the spectrum runs from 0 (not plausible) to 4 (most plausible), with the "neutral" point being the default value of 2? Who do you think the SK is?

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk, I want to make sure:  the spectrum runs from 0 (not plausible) to 4 (most plausible), with the "neutral" point being the default value of 2? Who do you think the SK is?

I was using 1 to 5.  3 is my "plausible" baseline.  1 would have been "extremely unlikely / borderline impossible" and 5 would have been "extremely likely".  Who the SK is depends on the mafia pairing.  In the my most likely Glooble / DSell situation - I tend to suspect RobZ, but it could be a very lucky Tables.  I tend to suspect you the least - but I suppose you aren't any more clear than Tables.  I still lean on thinking your cop claim was inexperienced town play - rather than super crafty Mafia gambit.  As a first time player - I can't picture you pulling that as Serial killer - especially coupled with the large number of rules questions you've had.

The problem with Tables (i think) is that in order for your investigation to have cleared him, he's not bulletproof, which removes one of the kill blocking possibilities which makes the Night 3 situation harder to explain. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey guys.  Mafia V is done.  Mafia VI is sleeping.  We've got some work to do here.

[Robz888]

Well Frisk, I am being steadily convinced to lynch you. I think there is too much risk that Dsell is the SK, and I trust Tables and SFS, so it's either you, or Glooble. And the case against you is better than the case against Glooble.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

[Robz888]

Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

Well, as I've said, that's a huge hang up I have. Maybe Dsell.

[Robz888]

Sounds good.

Who is my partner?

Well, as I've said, that's a huge hang up I have. Maybe Dsell.

I pushed for Jo and Axxle2 and was wrong. So I have to defer a bit to Tables, and SFS at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Follow your own logic there for a second.

You are deferring judgement to Tables and SFS (because you think they are town)
You are town (go check your own PM).

In that situation - you already know who the scum are - so you don't need to defer your judgement.

Does a me paired with either of those 2 make sense?  If not - then they are the pair - and then you, me, SFS and tables need to figure out which one of us is the serial killer - but that is priority 2

For the record, I think that SFS is the least likely.

[Dsell]

Frisk lynch is bisque lynch. Bisque is flavorful. Flavorful means mafia in this game.

Obvscum.

[Captain_Frisk]

What makes me so obvious good sir?

[Dsell]

/joke

[Tables]

Ugh, I'm really not sure. Frisk is definitely at the top of my list currently, but I can't shake this feeling Robz is something. And I've looked back, and I can't find anything new to point out or look at. SFS, any thoughts?

[Dsell]

Well, Robz may be Frisk's partner. I, too, am curious to hear from SFS since we haven't in a while, though he said he'd made up his mind. I think I have too.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia

[Dsell]

I'm not the serial killer, nor am I mafia. Were you just going to accuse your first voter in this manner, whoever it was?

[Dsell]

And you will keep trying to establish your innocence, of course, but I think it's pretty dang clear that you're mafia. Galz and jo both made it clear that they were suspicious of you before they died.

[Captain_Frisk]

Nope. Only you. I know you are scum, but thought you might be the serial killer

There is no way you are a one shot vi who shot axxle2 ad was magic blocked.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'll ask you the same question. If I am mafia : who is my partner?

[Dsell]

There is no way that I wouldn't go through with killing Axxle if I were mafia or serial killer, when it would pretty much validate my story.

I'm done arguing.

Pre-post edit: I've already answered that. Most likely SFS or Robz.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Ugh, I'm really not sure. Frisk is definitely at the top of my list currently, but I can't shake this feeling Robz is something. And I've looked back, and I can't find anything new to point out or look at. SFS, any thoughts?

Yeah, Robz kind of worries me too at this stage.  Cause I believe glooble, and that makes him town.

You were cleared by my investigation, and though I've gone to great pains to remind the scientist in me that that is not 100%, I'm willing to go with Pops explanation (back when I was "nitpicking" - don't want to look up the post) that 90% of the time an investigation result of town really means town.  Someone earlier today pointed out that for the SK to have chosen investigation immunity means we have a serious problem explaining the absence of all death on Night 3.  Someone else pointed out a long time ago that any good SK will pick one-shot bulletproof over investigation immunity, and I have to agree with that as well.  Therefore, I have to go with you being town.

So I'm town, I believe Glooble to be town, and you almost have to be town.  PoE means Dsell, Frisk, and Robz are the bad guys (unless we had only two mafia including O). So I guess I'm ready, while acknowledging that it feels like we are rolling the dice.

VOTE: CAPTAIN_FRISK

That makes two, and we need 4 to lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

SFS - please don't be the townie that loses the game. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Think through the scenarios that DSell is throwing out there.  If I'm mafia + and you/RobZ are my co-horts, and DSell is town - there's are only 6 possibilities - and you can eliminate 4 of them.

[Captain_Frisk]

Dsell, I took the liberty of doing some analysis of the scenarios in which I'm mafia - SFS / RobZ is my partner - and all possible combinations of serial killer who aren't you.

There are only 6 of them.

The DSell scenarios are really easy - because you have to explain 3 kills.  With 3 roleclaims - that only leaves a few options for what the other parties could and could not be.

Mafia 1	Mafia 2	Serial Killer	Notes
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	Glooble	Glooble is bulletproof: CF / RobZ roleblocks Dsell, CF / RobZ shoots Glooble, Glooble Kill Doctored / Roleblocked by Tables.  Night 4 CF / RobZ roleblock Glooble + Target Pops?  WHY NOT KILL GLOOBLE? Glooble isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - Tables can't block 2 kills. Why does Glooble claim jailkeeper?
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	SFS	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim SFS is bulletproof: CF / RobZ shoot SFS, Block Dsell.  SFS shoots someone - doctored by Tables.  Night 4: CF / RobZ roleblock SFS and target pops?  WHY NOT KILL SFS?  Outing him also throws suspicion on Tables. SFS isn't bulletproof: Doesn't work - tables can't block 2 kills.
Captain_Frisk	RobZ	Tables	Impossible.  Nobody could block table's kill.
Captain_Frisk	SFS	Glooble	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Glooble Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill Glooble (blocked).  Glooble kill doctored / roleblocked by RobZ  or Tables.    Glooble Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell.  Kill is blocked by Tables/RobZ.  Other NK is blocked by Tables/RobZ.  This one Bulletproof Glooble is plausible (only requires 1 town PR - but then Glooble is asking to be killed because he's out of vests)  Why would he claim and call the attention on himself?
Captain_Frisk	SFS	RobZ	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim RobZ Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock Dsell - kill RobZ (blocked).  RobZ kill doctored by Tables.   Glooble inadvertantly blocks my kill Night 4, RobZ kills Pops.  Requires 2 town protection roles (Doctor, Roleblocker) RobZ Not Bulletproof: Captain /SFS roleblock Dsell.  Impossible - Tables can't block 2 kills, and Glooble's protection is wasted.
Captain_Frisk	SFS	Tables	SFS has outrageous Day 2 claim Tables Bulletproof: Captain / SFS Roleblock DSell kill Tables (blocked).  Glooble kill doctored by RobZ.  Requires 2 town PRs. Tables Not Bulletproof: fails - RobZ can't block 2 kills

Before you vote for me - really think through these scenarios and see which ones are plausible.  Everyone here can rule out some of these - because they all require someone else to be doing some miracle protection.

For example - SFS (if town) can rule out scenarios 2,4,5,6.  So he just needs to look over 1 and 3 - and see if he believes that's what happened.

So DSell - can you tell me which of those scenarios look plausible to you?

[Captain_Frisk]

Will check back in later - I'm going to go watch a flick with the wife. 

Oh - and because I am now 100% confident:

Vote: DSell

[Tables]

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 5-1

Captain_Frisk (2): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {3}: Robz888, Glooble, Tables

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

[Robz888]

I wish there were a couple more living people to help make this decision. I'm just stumped. There is no easy explanation for the previous 2 night actions no matter which people are what, so I feel like I'm ultimately going to be guessing.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia

And this cements it for me.  If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

And that gives you pause?

[Captain_Frisk]

This cements it for me. The serial killer won't vote early because mislynching town results in likely loss for him too.

Dsell is mafia

And this cements it for me.  If you were convinced, why wait another hour and 32 minutes to vote for him?

Wanted To research and not start shit via phone

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

SFS - please don't be the townie that loses the game.

Remember though, it IS a game.

This, btw, is why I prefer individual sports.  If I lose, I've only disappointed me, and invite no one else's displeasure.

On that uplifting note, I'm off for the night.  Have fun all.

[Captain_Frisk]

I smell petrol... think it might be a bus.

Claim bussing if you want - as long as you lynch DSell - not me.  If we're bussing - then you win either way.  (Am I agreeing with SFS?)

@SFS - the reason why I'm appealing you to unvote is that you are the most clear townread.  I expected DSells vote - he's not likely to change it - mafia don't need to worry about misvoting.

You however - I expect to be town.  Everyone who isn't mafia needs to be very careful with their votes today - lynching town is nearly a game ender for town - and lynching serial killer does end it - and you've been throwing your vote around around the second someone accuses me.  Think it through.  If you really believe DSell is telling the truth - then work through a plausible scenario in which DSell is a town vig, and I'm mafia.  I need a partner - and there needs to be a serial killer - and you need to explain 3 night kills.

If DSell is not mafia, well then its all my fault and you can blame me for every future game.  There is no way he's town - and his play makes no sense for a cereal killer.

[Captain_Frisk]

Serial killer... not Cereal Killer.

[Robz888]

Okay. I am not mafia and Tables is not mafia and SFS is not mafia. Let's say I believe Glooble. That means Dsell and Frisk are mafia. Okay then, we kill mafia either way. So if that's the case, huzzah.

But it sure doesn't look like it from the way they are fighting, which means that something I believe is wrong. The most likely thing being wrong would be that Glooble is actually mafia. If Glooble is actually mafia, Dsell's claim is probably true. And it's probably Glooble and Frisk.

If Dsell is mafia... then what? If it's him and Glooble, we have no great role townies? Of course somebody could be an unrevealed Doctor. Or it's Dsell and Frisk.

Gar, I'm going in circles here.

I think they might just both be mafia. The only problem will be if one of them isn't, and it's Glooble instead.

More thinking to do...

[Robz888]

I am pretty convinced Dsell is scum. At this point I am just trying to figure out whether I think he is mafia or Serial Killer. If he is Serial Killer, I have to vote for Frisk.

[Captain_Frisk]

Please explain the glooble claim in the scenario in which he is mafia.

[Tables]

Robz, really, at this point, both Mafia would not be unhappy to bus the other. We could lynch mafia today, and the mafia could still win (lynch mafia, mafia/SK both shoot town, leaving one of everything, or lynch mafia, mafia shoot SK, SK shoots town, mafia wins the 3 man face off). I have no qualms about people's behaviors today. Just look at things in previous days.

Here's my take on Frisk/Glooble with DSell Killer:

Night 3: DSell kills Axxle but is blocked by Blocker!Glooble to create confusion. Meanwhile, the mafia targets someone and are either stopped by the doctor, or they try to kill DSell, believing his claim and thinking it'll lead to an Axxle kill the following day.

Night 4: Hmm... no, actually, I'm stumped in the second scenario. So we go back to the first scenario, and the mafia try to kill DSell, who absorbs the shot, while the Doctor saves the SK target.

It's plausible. Right now of course everything sounds unlikely, but plausible.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz, really, at this point, both Mafia would not be unhappy to bus the other. We could lynch mafia today, and the mafia could still win (lynch mafia, mafia/SK both shoot town, leaving one of everything, or lynch mafia, mafia shoot SK, SK shoots town, mafia wins the 3 man face off). I have no qualms about people's behaviors today. Just look at things in previous days.

Here's my take on Frisk/Glooble with DSell Killer:

Night 3: DSell kills Axxle but is blocked by Blocker!Glooble to create confusion. Meanwhile, the mafia targets someone and are either stopped by the doctor, or they try to kill DSell, believing his claim and thinking it'll lead to an Axxle kill the following day.

Night 4: Hmm... no, actually, I'm stumped in the second scenario. So we go back to the first scenario, and the mafia try to kill DSell, who absorbs the shot, while the Doctor saves the SK target.

It's plausible. Right now of course everything sounds unlikely, but plausible.

Ok.  So glooble opens today with a claim to bus me?  Why wouldn't glooble and I kill dsell night 4 now that we've wounded him?

Why would dsell claim one shot vig, which leaves the day 2 kill unexplained, and not full vig?

Not buying it.

[Tables]

I have no idea what either of the first two sentences are referring to. Claiming full vig would get him killed by the mafia, obviously, if they believed him.

[Captain_Frisk]

My setences were referring to your plan that its Me + Glooble as mafia  and DSell is the serial killer.

Sentence 1: Glooble damn near opened the day claiming jailkeeper with me as target.  Wouldn't we at least try to kill town or SK first?

Sentence 2: If DSell is the SK - and we've already shot him once on night 3 per your scenario - then why would we let him live night 4?

As for claiming full vig - he could gamble on some protection - he could have his own bulletproofedness.  The alternative is getting lynched.  Claiming one shot vig forces there to be a serial killer - and his claim is going to get really messy in a few rounds - as it has here.  If he had claimed full vig - it was then possible for there to be 4 mafia - and he can keep killing people - possibly with the doctor protection you're assuming.

[Tables]

On 1: It's a perfectly reasonable move, bus your partner and ride out the last few days as people think you're likely town. And he could have also been betting on other explanations working.

On 2: Did you even read my post?

[Captain_Frisk]

Sorry - I misread. 

I still don't like the assumption that Glooble bussed me to open the day.  Mafia  would be willing to bus today - but when the win is in reach - I would think they would at least try to get a win before resorting to bustimes

[Tables]

Hmm... yes, I do see your point. For the record, I'm still not overly suspicious of Glooble.

[Captain_Frisk]

Glooble is semi plausible town - which is why I am going back to Mr. DSell

[Glooble]

I am in a bit of a bind. I think it highly likely DSell is Serial Killer. My best evidence is the night kills - DSell is highly suspicious of Galz, then Galz get's NK'd. If DSell were mafia, why would he night kill someone who was in such an excellent position to get lynched? But the Serial Killer at the point would have wanted to hit scum, right? If DSell actually thought Galz was mafia, that kill makes perfect sense.

Of course its possible that Grujah shot Galz, the mafia killed Grujah, and the SK kill was blocked, but I didn't block it, so that leaves Mafia Roleblocker or our mysterious unclaimed doctor (who I'm fairly certain doesn't exist at this point.)

Then there's the fact Galz put that big 'ol FOS on Captain Frisk right before end of day. If we think Frisk is SK, killing Galz would have been very risky, because a dead confirmed townie's FOS is harder to wiggle out from under than a living player who still might be scum. If DSell is SK, this isn't an issue.

The reason I'm still torn is because I don't have a clue who Frisk's partner is in this scenario. My gut impulse is Robz, since he seems to most resistant to this lynch, but that theory is so full of holes I just don't like it at all. Robz'z behavior this game just hasn't been consistent with him being mafia.

That leaves SFS or Tables hoping an opportunistic bus will carry them through to the end game. SFS seems slightly more likely, I guess. I'll give him mad props for a ballsy gambit if he flips scum and Tables doesn't though.

Either way, though, I'm pretty sure Frisk is mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

That's a reasonably well argued post Glooble.

Let's test this theory then:

@DSell - why did you shoot PopsofCtown instead of me last night?

[Tables]

Hmm... you say that Glooble, and yet you do not vote for him.

Also, you don't think there's a doctor? How do you explain the lack of kills last night? Particularly from DSell?

[Glooble]

I was concerned about the mafia quickhammering, but that's kind of silly. If Frisk had anything earth-shattering to say, he'd had have said it by now.

Vote: Captain Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ / Tables - you will lose the game if you vote for me.

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ / Tables - you will lose the game if you vote for me.

Actually - i suppose that isn't true.  You can survive a town mislynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys - I hate to make kings - but I'm at least going to keep the game going.

I am the serial killer.

Night 1 - I killed theorel
Night 2 - I killed Galzria
Night 3 - I targeted Axxle 
Night 3 - I targeted RobZ

I propose lynching DSell - and letting Glooble proove his innocence by blocking me.  I'll direct my kill at anyone else town prefers. 

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 5-2

Captain_Frisk (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Glooble
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: Robz888, Tables

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Of course - its too late if RobZ or Tables are mafia.

Glooble - better unvote.

[Glooble]

Unvote

for now.

[Glooble]

It's a weird game when someone claims SK to keep from being lynched.

[Glooble]

But there's no reason for you not to make this claim at this point if you are mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

Break the 4thwall hi out to everyone who's not in this game that is now reading this forum with amazing intensity.  Just checked the who's doing what - to see if anyone is lurking... and all of the mafia players are out there.

Surprise surprise, DSell was reading this forum @ 12:12

No comment?

[Dsell]

On iPod and about to leave for the day.

I don't buy this claim at all, tbh. He's 100 percent sacrificing his wincon if it's true. The serial killer wouldn't do that. Mafia ploy to stay around.

[Captain_Frisk]

On iPod and about to leave for the day.

I don't buy this claim at all, tbh. He's 100 percent sacrificing his wincon if it's true. The serial killer wouldn't do that. Mafia ploy to stay around.

Do you want to know what else sacrifices my wincon?  Getting lynched.

[Dsell]

You weren't lynched yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

Couldn't chance that RobZ and Tables were both town.  If there was any chance that Glooble was town - then one of them could quick hammer me for the win.

[Glooble]

For that very reason, I am holding off on my vote to see what everyone thinks about this development. But color me unconvinced.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

For that very reason, I am holding off on my vote to see what everyone thinks about this development. But color me unconvinced.

It doesn't change a thing for me.  If he's mafia, he only needs one non-mafia lynch to win.  No downside in claiming SK here, if he's mafia.

From a personal standpoint as town, if I'm going to lose, I'd rather lose based on a totality of my reads and other evidence, rather than a decision on whether or not to believe a roleclaim like this.

I also don't get the significance of the reference to who's out there watching, there's always someone watching.  If this is the end, it makes sense that viewership would go up, but how is that relevant to the players in the game making the decision?  It seems highly manipulative to me.

Maybe we'll get a counterclaim for SK.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And on a completely unrelated note:  Is it no longer possible to upvote posts?

[Glooble]

Ok, I'm leaving for Connecticon around 5 tonight. I'll give people until then to convince me this isn't a desperate mafia ploy to survive another day. If that doesn't happen, I'll revote before I leave.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey - I might be going there tomorrow - are you board gaming or table top?

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey - I might be going there tomorrow - are you board gaming or table top?

I meant there for other stuff - like TT minis or roleplaying - sorry.  Going to start another thread elsewhere for this discussion.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

All right guys - I hate to make kings - but I'm at least going to keep the game going.

I am the serial killer.

Night 1 - I killed theorel
Night 2 - I killed Galzria
Night 3 - I targeted Axxle 
Night 3 - I targeted RobZ

I propose lynching DSell - and letting Glooble proove his innocence by blocking me.  I'll direct my kill at anyone else town prefers.

So you killed two people on Night 3?  (That was obviously a typo).

And if you targeted Axxle on night 3, then he should have died, because if you are the SK and Dsell is mafia (which is your take on him), there is NO WAY Dsell doesn't also target Axxle to confirm his roleclaim.  That's two bullets aimed at Axxle, yet he didn't die.

Robz, Tables, its up to you guys.

[Captain_Frisk]

This is why I suspect that DSell was not the shooter - and that either mafia targeted someone other than Axxle (to frame Axxle as bulletproof SK) OR townroleblocker blocked the mafia partner.

Yes - night 4 i targeted RobZ. 

[Glooble]

Frisk: I'm mostly there to lead panels for the TV blog I write for! I'll post a link in the other thread once you start it.

SFS: That's a really good point. Why target Axxle at all if he was going to die anyway, and how did he survive?

I don't buy this at all.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk: I'm mostly there to lead panels for the TV blog I write for! I'll post a link in the other thread once you start it.

SFS: That's a really good point. Why target Axxle at all if he was going to die anyway, and how did he survive?

I don't buy this at all.

Counter point: why would I lie about an Axxle target claim?  Whoever blocked DSell / Glooble's kill knows what they did.  It can't be SFS.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey - RobZ - stop trying to get into newb games and get over here.

[Robz888]

I'm here. Wow.

I did expect you to claim Serial Killer. But if you shot Axxle, who is a VT, the only way he survived was if you were roleblocked or jailkept or something. I have to check to see who Glooble roleblocked Night 3...

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm here. Wow.

I did expect you to claim Serial Killer. But if you shot Axxle, who is a VT, the only way he survived was if you were roleblocked or jailkept or something. I have to check to see who Glooble roleblocked Night 3...

Glooble "claims" to have roleblocked Axxle.

The mafia knows I'm the SK - and blocked me twice.  This is why they want to kill me - because they win.

They can't claim that though (because then I look like the SK) - which is why Glooble has only claimed to have blocked me once.

[Robz888]

Here were SK Frisk's targets:

All right guys - I hate to make kings - but I'm at least going to keep the game going.

I am the serial killer.

Night 1 - I killed theorel
Night 2 - I killed Galzria
Night 3 - I targeted Axxle 
Night 3 - I targeted RobZ (typo, should read Night 4)

I propose lynching DSell - and letting Glooble proove his innocence by blocking me.  I'll direct my kill at anyone else town prefers.

Here were Roleblocker Glooble's targets:

Night one I blocked Grujah. He looked the scummiest to me coming out of day one.

Night two I blocked pops. His response to Galz's SK hunt looked scummy to me, and I still hadn't been won over to his general playstyle. He seemed as good a candidate to me as any.

Night three I blocked Axxle, and last night I blocked Frisk.

Frisk, why target Axxle on Night 3? This was the night that Dsell had been instructed to shoot Axxle. You wanted to double shoot him?

[Glooble]

And now I understand why you claimed to have targeted Axxle. I was thinking it was monumentally stupid, but it's actually quite smart if you're trying to make me look bad.

[Glooble]

But of course now you have to explain why you shot Axxle if he was probably going to die anyway. Why would you waste a kill like that?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Deeper and deeper we go.

[Captain_Frisk]

At the time - DSell's claim was plausible. 

I suspected that Axxle was mafia (didn't we all?).  So - if dsell was telling the truth - then axxle knew he was going to be protected by roleblocking.  If DSell was lying - then he wasn't going to shoot Axxle.

If Axxle turned out to be town - then there was no way for there to be 3 kills - and DSell couldn't clear himself.

[Captain_Frisk]

Listen guys - bottom line is that lynching me loses town the game.

I wrestled with whether or not to let it happen, or to claim.  I decided that staying silent was king making - and claiming would at least let you guys debate it out.

If you guys still lynch me - well then the loss is on you - this is a 100% trueclaim - I didn't even mix up my targets to better frame anyone.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Listen guys - bottom line is that lynching me loses town the game.

I wrestled with whether or not to let it happen, or to claim.  I decided that staying silent was king making - and claiming would at least let you guys debate it out.

If you guys still lynch me - well then the loss is on you - this is a 100% trueclaim - I didn't even mix up my targets to better frame anyone.

Robz - I want to let you know that I now understand why you got tired of hearing me say I was a newb early in the game.

Frisk - We are all aware that if we lose it's on us, or me, or whoever.  You don't need to keep saying it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk - We are all aware that if we lose it's on us, or me, or whoever.  You don't need to keep saying it.

No - i wasn't calling you out specifically - but all town.  I'm just saying that by doing this - I'm at least letting the game continue vs. just handing it to one team.

[Robz888]

Frisk, I want to believe your claim. And I truly expected you to make it. But the fact remains that you would make it regardless.

Why did you kill Theorel?

[Captain_Frisk]

On day 1 - theorel kept mentioning the Serial Killer possibility.  I took a chance that he was mafia with 2 teammates - and thus knew that there was probably an SK.

I also figured there wasn't much of an issue with being wrong  

[Captain_Frisk]

On Galz - I was really hoping he was mafia - but I kindof suspected he was town.

I couldn't kill Pops, Jonah, or DSell because we were all in the same pod of O non-voters.

Galz was going to drive for my lynch the next day - and well I just couldn't have that.  I figured that if I needed to - I'd just point out how incredibly obvious it would be to kill the dude who FOS'd me with his dying breath and pray.  I truly did not expect to live through that day.

[Robz888]

Well, your explanations sound sincere. Not too long or overly rehearsed. They read as easily recalled things, not made up things. Point for you.

[Captain_Frisk]

You were my least thought out target.  Since I expected to be blocked anyway because Mafia already knew who I was - it didn't really matter.  You seemed like plausible mafia... and I'd probably still think you are most likely until Glooble claimed. 

Again - the consequences of being wrong as a serial killer are very low.  If we started today 2-2-1 vs. 3-1-1, those are about the same to me.  Earlier I really wanted to hit mafia.  Once you guys lynched O (boy was I angry about that) - it went back to being kindof neutral regarding who I hit.

[Captain_Frisk]

Angry because I really expected him to be town - and it left me looking like the wrong flavor of scum - when NOBODY suspected me during the tables investigation.

[Robz888]

Okay, let's see if Dsell counterclaims Serial Killer.

Vote: Dsell

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 5-3

Captain_Frisk (2): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Dsell (2): Captain_Frisk, Robz888

Not voting {2}: Tables, Glooble

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

[Tables]

Unvote DSell. NOW

[Tables]

Right now that's there, we have TWO people at L-2. Mafia could quicklynch EITHER. This is not good.

[Robz888]

Unvote: Dsell

[Robz888]

Right now that's there, we have TWO people at L-2. Mafia could quicklynch EITHER. This is not good.

Only if both the mafia are neither Dsell, nor Frisk, which has zero chance I think. But fine.

[Tables]

AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.

I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.

Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.

[Tables]

Also for reference:

Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}
Welcome to Mafia IV!

DEAC section 781.3(b) provides that, upon the catastrophic illness, dismemberment, or dissolving of an Estate-holder or higher status, immediate command of municipal and local staff passes temporarily to the highest-ranking town official on hand.  Fortunately, no one here knows that, so you were able to quote the regulations on "no hay baling after 9 on Tuesdays" to get the Estate servants listening to you instead.  Not that they're going to help you find the Mafia.  The best they can do is get in someone's way.  But there's an infestation of them, and only a few of you leaders who could actually be the Mafia, and so maybe having the staff cowed by your encyclopaedic knowledge of the wage and hour code isn't such a bad thing.  People talk about "obstruction of justice."  You know that, in the right hands, obstruction IS justice.

You are a Townie, a Town Bureaucrat {Roleblocker}.

Each night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. They will not be able to perform an action at night if they have one.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

No protection. Just blocking.

[Dsell]

I DO NOT believe C_F's claim. I strongly believe that it makes zero sense for a serial killer to claim under any circumstance. If he's serial killer, he has completely aborted any chance that he had to win, and I don't believe that C_F would do that. Robz and tables had both expressed doubt and confusion and it was by no means certain that they would have hammered him.

I believe that there is zero chance that he would claim that if he was actually serial killer so I believe there is a zero chance that he's actually serial killer.

However, that claim makes perfect sense if he's mafia! It buys him another day and the actual serial killer would not abort their own chances by counterclaiming. It buys him at least another day which is very possibly more than enough for him to win! This is an extremely scummy claim and I don't believe it. I'm not going to counterclaim serial killer, not because it will abort my chances of winning but because I'm not the serial killer. However, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim if he's the actual SK and every reason for him to claim if he's mafia.

[Robz888]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

[Captain_Frisk]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

Are you referring to me?  I was at L-1 - and bullied Glooble into unvoting so that you and Tables couldn't quick hammer.

[Robz888]

I guess if he was actually the Serial Killer he would have waited until he was L-1, perhaps.

Are you referring to me?  I was at L-1 - and bullied Glooble into unvoting so that you and Tables couldn't quick hammer.

Oh that's right.

[Captain_Frisk]

I DO NOT believe C_F's claim. I strongly believe that it makes zero sense for a serial killer to claim under any circumstance. If he's serial killer, he has completely aborted any chance that he had to win, and I don't believe that C_F would do that. Robz and tables had both expressed doubt and confusion and it was by no means certain that they would have hammered him.

I believe that there is zero chance that he would claim that if he was actually serial killer so I believe there is a zero chance that he's actually serial killer.

However, that claim makes perfect sense if he's mafia! It buys him another day and the actual serial killer would not abort their own chances by counterclaiming. It buys him at least another day which is very possibly more than enough for him to win! This is an extremely scummy claim and I don't believe it. I'm not going to counterclaim serial killer, not because it will abort my chances of winning but because I'm not the serial killer. However, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim if he's the actual SK and every reason for him to claim if he's mafia.

So you are sticking with the "I'm a one shot vig and I shot Axxle"?

[Dsell]

Yessir.

[Captain_Frisk]

AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.

I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.

Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.

Tables - DSell might not have been the shooter (because DSell is the roleblocker who has been blocking me).  His partner could be the shooter - and his partner could have been blocked.  That blocker would be you, or RobZ.

They also could have done the same analysis that I did - and figured that Axxle was scum (who the hell votes for a scenario in which they will be shot).  They figured he was bulletproof SK - and targeted someone else - who was doctored.  When Axxle didn't die - DSell could push for Axxle lynch because - well - he survived.  Worst case - Axxle2 flips town - and DSell is outed as a liar - but he still lived longer than he would have if he was lynched on Day 3 as we were going to do.

[Robz888]

AAAnd now I can start actually doing analysis. Also size 7 is apparently bigger than I imagined. Oops.

I don't believe Frisk's claim for a second. His night 3 doesn't make sense with the current roles we've been told. DSell would shoot Axxle regardless of if Mafia or town. But DSell could be blocked by mafia roleblocker. Glooble blocked Axxle night 3, which did nothing as he doesn't have a role. So unless the doctor was monumentally stupid, Frisk's story fails.

Robz: Hmm... yes, actually, you make a good point. I overreacted.

Tables - DSell might not have been the shooter (because DSell is the roleblocker who has been blocking me).  His partner could be the shooter - and his partner could have been blocked.  That blocker would be you, or RobZ.

If either Tables or I were blockers, the claim would contradict Glooble's and we would have said so.

[Glooble]

Well, I'm AFK for the rest of the night.

I'm going to Vote: Captain Frisk before I go. Nothing that's been said has convinced me otherwise.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 5-4

Captain_Frisk (3): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Glooble
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: Tables, Robz888

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch Deadline: Monday, July 23, at 7:00 a.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Tables has been very clear that he was not going to massclaim.  I don't even think you should claim.  One of you needs to be protective (doctor or roleblocker)  Whichever one of you it is can see the truth.

[Tables]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

[Captain_Frisk]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

Take the opposite.

DSell is the serial killer.  My partner (who?) and I roleblocked him.  Who blocked my partner and my kill?  Has to be a doctor right?

[Robz888]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

The only think I'm sure of is that both the mafia and the real Serial Killer have already voted.

[Tables]

Since numbers are so down though, I'd like to say, if I die during the night, I still view SFS as the most likely town, Glooble I think I can believe, but could easily see him lying, Robz I trust more than DSell and Frisk is about to die so, eh. If Frisk flips town we've probably lost (and he's made a ridiculous claim), if he flips SK we still probably have but... good luck to Glooble, Robz or myself, whichever happen to have protective/preventative roles of some kind (I have no intent to deny or confirm whether I have those now, but I think it's clear us three are the ones who might as everyone else has claimed).

Which brings me nicely to: Frisk - yes, your point?

[Captain_Frisk]

Since numbers are so down though, I'd like to say, if I die during the night, I still view SFS as the most likely town, Glooble I think I can believe, but could easily see him lying, Robz I trust more than DSell and Frisk is about to die so, eh. If Frisk flips town we've probably lost (and he's made a ridiculous claim), if he flips SK we still probably have but... good luck to Glooble, Robz or myself, whichever happen to have protective/preventative roles of some kind (I have no intent to deny or confirm whether I have those now, but I think it's clear us three are the ones who might as everyone else has claimed).

Which brings me nicely to: Frisk - yes, your point?

My point is that you just claimed my theory as implausible - but the other theory is equally implausible - and yet you are 95% sure?!?!?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

So let me get this straight.

DSell blocked you from killing Axxle and nobody (mafia) attempted to kill Axxle, while whatever kill they made was presumably docsaved?

It's... plausible in the most tenuous sense of the word.

Now Frisk is at L-1. I'm very tempted to hammer. I'm about 95% sure he's mafia, and dang, you don't see them odds often. But as long as people are talking maybe something will come up.

You don't think it's been talked to death?  You think it will get better than 95%?

[Robz888]

If your mind is made up, Tables, I can't blame you.

[Captain_Frisk]

You will be able to blame him as soon as he votes.

[Tables]

Your theory requires the mafia to roleblock you on a whim. Why would they do that?

If my mind were made up, I'd have hammered. In fact I was just about to! But now Frisk has actually made me think. So I'm going to think. Might as well humour a dead man if he's wrong, and definitely worth humouring him if he's right.

[Tables]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

[Robz888]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

I know. I keep saying to myself, "okay, we just need this out in the open. Tables, on three we both say if we are doctor." And then I think it through a step further and stop myself, because we can't actually do that.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

Well, look at it this way.  If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.

I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out.  Or not.  I'll check back in in a few hours.

[Captain_Frisk]

Your theory requires the mafia to roleblock you on a whim. Why would they do that?

If my mind were made up, I'd have hammered. In fact I was just about to! But now Frisk has actually made me think. So I'm going to think. Might as well humour a dead man if he's wrong, and definitely worth humouring him if he's right.

So - its night 3.  They have to roleblock someone.  They want to roleblock the serial killer.  They've already roleblocked 2 people that they can rule out because the kills kept happening.  I think they just kept rotating through people who were alive until they caught me.  I'm not sure that I"m a better target than anyone else - but they know I'm not mafia - and I have been pushing really hard to kill DSell. 

They can probably trust SFS, they can probably trust Tables. 

Someone did block me - or we wouldn't have had to lynch Axxle, since you know he wouldn't have been doctored.  Since you or RobZ aren't claiming not to have to have done so - that leaves Mafia roleblocking.

Hey! - someone has already claimed to have blocked me.  He just hasn't claimed to have blocked me both nights (because it would confirm that I'm a serial killer)

[Captain_Frisk]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

Well, look at it this way.  If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.

I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out.  Or not.  I'll check back in in a few hours.

SFS - I am scum - but in order to lynch mafia - you will need to team up with the serial killer.  Glooble and DSell are super buddy buddy.  They aren't even participating in any realistic possibility that the other is mafia.

Seriously guys - before you lynch me - you really should have a plausible thought on who my partner is.

[Robz888]

Incidentally I notice both Robz and me refuse to vote. Which clears Robz in my mind. Which is good, because I need to believe he's the doctor for things to make sense (conversely, I believe he needs to believe I'm the doctor, and he's smart enough to know neither of us are going to confirm which is true today).

Well, look at it this way.  If you and Robz don't vote, Frisk gets what he wants.

I'm sure you guys will collectively figure it out.  Or not.  I'll check back in in a few hours.

SFS - I am scum - but in order to lynch mafia - you will need to team up with the serial killer.  Glooble and DSell are super buddy buddy.  They aren't even participating in any realistic possibility that the other is mafia.

Seriously guys - before you lynch me - you really should have a plausible thought on who my partner is.

This last thing is actually the biggest problem. I can't picture who Frisk's partner is, unless it is Dsell, in which case none of this matters anyway.

[Tables]

I don't see why anyone couldn't be your partner. And you could even not have a partner.

Robz: Due to my recent revelation, he's a no-go if I'm a townie, and a possibility if I'm doctor. He was the only one seriously protecting you today, and... eh.
Glooble: You were at each other's throats a bit much. Unlikely, but plausible.
DSell: Well, this one would be interesting. You shoot... the Killer? But not Axxle, and Killer gets his kill doc saved. Next night you get blocked and Killer is also doc saved. Hm, probably very unlikely.
SFS: This one seems most reasonable, actually. He wouldn't be blocked, you and O would probably be happy to ask him to play a crazy risk bus, he's been out of the (scummy) spotlight so running a bus is okay for him.

Hmm... it's actually a good point. EVERYTHING is pretty unlikely.

[Tables]

Oh man, I bet everyone in the Quicktopic is having a riot at this right now.

[Tables]

Robz, you don't think any of the pairings are that likely, right?

[Tables]

I really don't understand the logic of shooting Axxle. It seems to hinge on you assuming there was a roleblocker on night 3, when there was nothing to suggest either way. For a potentially marginal benefit to yourself (near guaranteeing the Axxle kill) when you could have shot another person you suspected. Explain night 3 in more detail please.

[Captain_Frisk]

Thank you!

If you had just listened to me a few hours ago - I wouldn't have had to make this outrageous claim.

[Tables]

And unfortunately, I need to disappear. Which means, I'll be back in hopefully an hour but maybe two. Robz, I wouldn't blame you for hammering after Frisk answers, but if you don't, I'll consider things once I get back.

[Tables]

Frisk: We aren't sorry for making you claim Scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - remember that I'm a serial killer.  I know hands down that neither Axxle nor DSell is the serial killer.

There are 4 possibilities:

1. Axxle + DSell are mafia:  DSell clearly isn't going to shoot Axxle - so I'll do it for him.  He can claim the kill tomorrow - but I'll know what he did last summer.
2. Axxle is town and DSell is mafia: I didn't like this pairing.  (Axxle voted for himself?!?!?!? WTF) 
There are 2 possibilities here:
   2a. Mafia shoots Axxle:  then only 1 person dies.  This makes DSell look scummy - and then we need to claim to figure out who blocked what.  I wanted massclaims because then I could figure out who needed to die.  I can't have people blocking my kill.
   2b. Mafia shoots someone else:  He is hoping that the serial killer kill also goes through.   This leaves a plausible situation for his roleclaim: Axxle is the serial killer and blocked his kill, and the mafia and SK kills went elsewhere.  The SK kill goes off somewhere else, and the mafia kill hits a 3rd.  Also - if thought that Axxle is the SK - then they didn't want to waste their shot on him - especially if they could have him lynched.
3. Axxle is mafia + DSell is a vig.  No way axxle approves this plan unless he has roleblocking in place.  They will block DSell.  I'll sneak in and get a free mafia kill.  SWEET.  Best news?  2 people die - DSell isn't cleared as SK.
4.  Axxle is town and DSell is a vig - This is extra special dumb (DSells roleclaim is already unlikely (2 oneshot vigs?), Axxle2 voted to have himself shot).  So I waste my kill - but it prevents my nightmare scenario: DSell is cleared as town vig.

Under no circumstances can I allow DSell to have a valid claim.  I didn't believe it, but I couldn't let it work.  As soon as we woke up - I knew that I had been roleblocked.  I was hoping that it was mafia because at least they wouldn't claim it.

I truly believed that Axxle2 was mafia - and that the only way he was going to survive was having roleblocking.  I wasn't sure on DSell. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk: We aren't sorry for making you claim Scum.

You should be thankful.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys - I'm out for the night - date night with the wife.  I'll answer any questions about serial killing most likely tomorrow morning.  I'm going to try really hard not to read the phone tonight.

[Robz888]

Robz, you don't think any of the pairings are that likely, right?

No, I don't. I just don't see it. Frisk and Dsell, I guess, but then they've gone to a lot of trouble to shift the kill from one to the other, with no benefit.

[Dsell]

If frisk was serial killer he would have shot me night 3. I wanted to shoot him over Axxle. If he didn't shoot me night 3 he would have shot me night 4. The only thing keeping him from doing that is the fear that I'm bulletproof, I'd wager.

[Tables]

Alright, I've thought a bit, and... Frisk's arguments are good, but they just aren't convincing enough. Vote: Frisk

There's a few factors that play in here: Firstly, shooting Axxle really doesn't seem the best choice for serial killer. Yes, at that point he was likely scum, but why potentially waste your kill? DSell seems so so much better - he's not going to be protected by doctor, if he's scum, scum gets shot, if he's town, well if his kill went through he's dead anyway. Clear but dead. If it didn't, Axxle dies the next day anyway, not a big loss to the SK. Secondly, by claiming SK, you revoked any ability to win the game. Best case scenario tomorrow would be 1 SK 1 Mafia 1 Town, and the Mafia and Town would insta lynch you as neither could do any better. You're either lying or not playing to your wincon. In the second, you deserve to get lynched, and in the first, I want you lynched. And you're a smart player... I'm reasonably confident it's the first.

[Tables]

And please don't let that be the post which dooms the longest thread in F:DS. Still, if it is, I blame, uh... *rolls dice* Tables for... wait, I need a better system.

[Robz888]

O and Glooble: WE DID IT!!!

Just kidding. I have no idea what happens now. Gulp.

[Robz888]

I don't blame you for the vote, Tables. I think you're right that Frisk's is the less believable claim. Dear Lord I hope so.

[Tables]

I'm actually cautiously optimistic there are only two mafia. That would put us in a decent position for tomorrow.

Volt: Will we find out if we eliminate the mafia faction in the, uh, plausible case there's a SK?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Alright, I've thought a bit, and... Frisk's arguments are good, but they just aren't convincing enough. Vote: Frisk

There's a few factors that play in here: Firstly, shooting Axxle really doesn't seem the best choice for serial killer. Yes, at that point he was likely scum, but why potentially waste your kill? DSell seems so so much better - he's not going to be protected by doctor, if he's scum, scum gets shot, if he's town, well if his kill went through he's dead anyway. Clear but dead. If it didn't, Axxle dies the next day anyway, not a big loss to the SK. Secondly, by claiming SK, you revoked any ability to win the game. Best case scenario tomorrow would be 1 SK 1 Mafia 1 Town, and the Mafia and Town would insta lynch you as neither could do any better. You're either lying or not playing to your wincon. In the second, you deserve to get lynched, and in the first, I want you lynched. And you're a smart player... I'm reasonably confident it's the first.

So that's the hammer? Frisk is gone?

[Tables]

That was certainly the intent. Unless the last votal was wrong?

[Voltgloss]

With tensions running at their peak, the Estate dwellers grab Captain Frisk and hustle him out into the Courtyard.  Dsell bound his arms while SwitchedFromStarcraft and Glooble piled up a pyre of kindling.  Tables tossed in Captain Frisk, along with a torch.

FWOOOSH

When the flames died down, a great charred crater remained.  Inside was a dapper gentleman in a business suit.  He was holding a soot-blackened head, still vaguely recognizable as Captain Frisk's.

He grinned at those assembled.  "Please allow me to introduce myself.  I'm a man of wealth... and taste."

And he ate Frisk's head.

Licking his chops:  "I've been waiting for that tainted soul for decades.  Oh sure, the corpses he left in my name were delicious all the same... but when one such as me gets to dine on a dedicated servant, well, there's nothing quite so delicious as the irony."

And with a wink, and blast of flame, the devil was gone.

And all the lights went out.

Vote Count 5-5

Captain_Frisk (4): Dsell, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Glooble, Tables
Dsell (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: Robz888

Captain Frisk has been lynched.  He was a Witch {Serial Killer}.

Night 5 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by 8:30 p.m. EDT, Sunday, July 15.  If I receive all commands before the deadline, Day 6 will start early.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

The lights snapped on.

Robz888 lay on the ground, his head neatly severed.  Dsell stood over him, holding a bloody knife and a nonchalant look.

Tables gasped and started to dash forward, but promptly fell on his face and knocked himself out.  Apparently someone had tied his shoelaces together during the night.

Another Estate dweller walked over to Dsell, turned, and faced the others.  In one hand, the portcullis key.  In the other, a hand crossbow leveled at SwitchedFromStarcraft. 

It was Glooble.  He spoke.

"It's certainly been fun playing with you all.  Now, there's nothing to prevent us from taking over the Town.  As a reward for surviving to the end, you two get to live.  Well... for as long as the Feasts here hold out, anyway."

The Mafia unlocked the portcullis, departed, locked it again, and tossed the key in the Estate Moat.  SwitchedFromStarcraft could only watch in rage while Tables groaned, holding his head.

Dsell and Glooble grinned and waved.  Then turned, smiled at each other, and walked off into their new Town.

Outside these Estate Walls.

The Game Is Over.  Mafia Wins!

Role assignments, night actions, and quicktopic links coming up in next post.

[Voltgloss]

Role assignments:

- Mafia Thief: Glooble
- Mafia Goons: Dsell, O
- Witch: Captain_Frisk
- Town Chaplain: Tables
- Town Spy: SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Town Woodcutter: Grujah
- Town Village Idiot: Theorel
- Town Vanillas: Galzria, Insomniac, Robz888, Axxle1, popsofctown, jotheonah, Green Opal/Axxle2


Links to the quicktopics:

- Spectator Discussion:  http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/BnQswvjc2Hzu
- Mafia Discussion:  http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/m6wsn9rK5HF

These are really excellent discussion threads.  Both of them.  I strongly encourage EVERY f:DS Mafia player to read both of those threads, start to finish, EVEN IF you didn't follow M-IV along the way.  The level of discourse, analysis, and debate is the highest I've seen yet related to any Mafia game.  Enormous props to ALL participants.


List of all night actions:

Night 1
- Tables protects Galzria
- SwitchedFromStarcraft investigates Tables
- Glooble roleblocks Robz888
- O kills Insomniac
- Captain_Frisk kills Theorel

Night 2
- Tables protects SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Glooble roleblocks SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Dsell kills Grujah
- Captain_Frisk kills Galzria

Night 3
- Tables protects SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Glooble roleblocks Captain_Frisk
- Dsell kills SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Captain_Frisk kills Axxle

Night 4
- Tables protects SwitchedFromStarcraft
- Glooble roleblocks Captain_Frisk
- Dsell kills popsofctown
- Captain_Frisk kills Robz888

Night 5
- Tables protects Dsell
- Glooble roleblocks Tables
- Dsell kills Robz888

Grujah never used his one-shot nightkill.

Pre-game, Captain_Frisk chose Investigation Immunity.  (Amusingly, he was never investigated NOR was he ever nightkill targeted.)


This game was a blast to run.  Thank you all so much - I really enjoyed it, and I hope you all did too!

[Grujah]

You guys suck.
Dsell made an impossible claim.
If anyone actually took some time and went through mafiascum, they would see that used setup was C9++.
Or just check my FIRST post D2, after some of the info could be gathered,
they would find out what the setup was:

Very quick pre-exam post:

I'm pretty sure Theo is Witch kill,trying to weed out competition; no real need for mafia to kill him, many people though of him scummy. Though it is possible to be overeager Vig, as if I were Vig, Theo really was on top of my list for NK. Only reason I see for theo dieing if he was "on to them" but... Will need to review post of both of them now.

Also Theo being Village Idiot probably means no Masons, (considering this is most likely C9++).

So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? 

It was impossible for me and Dsell to both be Woodcutters.

I got so outraged. And only if I survived, I even had a breadcrum post so I could counterclaim easily:

Grujah ("derp not bandwagoning townies is a scumtell")

Well, it seems not aging with you is scummy as well. Ok, it might be a honest townie scumhunting on its own, not caring for "big mouth" players. OTOH, it might be a easy way to feign activity and still be clear when a misslynch happens. Definately a way to lurk without actually lurking. Could it be either of those? Undoubtedly, yes. Thing is, it seems to be a patterned behavior. That on its own is scummy. Easy to do and call it a playstyle. Really, just a thing I picked up, though it might be worth mentioning. I scimmed through some mafiascum games actually, and this actually isn't that uncommon mafia (or I had a really small sample). Kinda weird you got a bit jumpy there.

Good play by mobs, especially Dsell. Glooble was on edge most of the time, but did well do.
Frisk - we (at QT) were even sure you were town and that you were softclaiming roleblocker the whole time. 

Tables was doc?

At least the game is over so we can discuss it in other games.

[Grujah]

Also,
You can see from QT, my Shootlist for D2 was:
Galzria
Frisk
Dsell


I though Dsell was SK. As the night ended I ALMOST shot Frisk but decided against it later. Such a bad decision.

Edit: And when I died after saying that I think he was SK, and theo also died night before after suspecting Dsell, I was like 90% he was SK. Guess I was wrong.

[Grujah]

And reading through Mafia QT, can't believe it was the completely accident softclaim that put a bullet in me

[Tables]

Umm... okay? You think we suck because in a thread of 3,000 posts, we didn't notice and investigate a setup claim from someone posted at the start of a long day? I think that's a bit harsh. Especially considering it could well have NOT been that setup, and just coincidentally similar.

Well, props to the mafia for winning. I think partially town getting so badly misdirected days 3+4 was what really killed us - ESPECIALLY Axxle not defending himself well.

And finally, scumbag Tables: Plays two mafia games. Most powerful role in both games.

[Tables]

I'm really surprised I survived as long as I did. Guess the mafia really did think I was likely covered by a doc, despite making probably more survivalist tells than was reasonable to do.

[Grujah]

Umm... okay? You think we suck because in a thread of 3,000 posts, we didn't notice and investigate a setup claim from someone posted at the start of a long day? I think that's a bit harsh. Especially considering it could well have NOT been that setup, and just coincidentally similar.

Yes!
Because out of all players I was only one willing to find out what setup it is.
And when I slipped it through nobody even checked it out

And it would be too much of a coincidence to be just "similar" 

[Captain_Frisk]

GRRRRR!  I was right!  Tables - if you were the doc - then you knew my story was plausible! 

So - my rational for claiming serial killer was:

Its the only role that actually ends the game if its lynched.  If I survived - and we lynched the roleblocker (who i thought was DSell) - (which allowed for the possibility of a town roleblocker)

I assumed that if we lynched mafia - that if Grujah and I each killed town - we'd be at 1-1-1 which can be considered a draw.  As long as they didn't kill me, even at 2-1-1 it can also be considered a draw.  Read: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Dilemma

I also considered opening Day 6 with a claim of doctor (and say I doctored SFS the whole time).  Sure - RobZ or Tables could counterclaim - but WIFOM.  My argument was that claiming serial killer was the only way to ensure that I didn't die.

I also put in a coded message a few pages back that said "DSell Will Wanted Claim Serial Killer".  Of course - the wanted wasn't intentional, but I snapped off a reply to SFS when I wasn't thinking.

[Tables]

I think you overestimate how much time people have... Even if I noticed it, and investigated it, I still wouldn't have been convinced. Not until the very last day or two, at which point it definitely would have slipped my mind anyway.

[timchen]

Yeah. It is very interesting. From town's point of view it is unimaginable that a serial killer will make this claim. Basically you can only hope for draws afterwards. And convincing others on that is pretty hard.

Good job on the scum team on creating this awesome situation that while knowing the truth you cannot tell.

[Tables]

Frisk: I knew it was plausible. I also knew it was unlikely. And thing is, even if it was 1-1-1 on the final day, you'd be lynched, as the other mafia could pretend to not be mafia as the mafia were eliminated. As I said, town can't do better than lynching you at that point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Read the link. Town can vote for no lynch and hope scum kill each ther at night.

[Captain_Frisk]

What else could I have done at l-1?

[Tables]

Not much. Probably claimed some power role (doctor?) and hoped we'd switch to DSell.

[Tables]

Also just read the C9 stuff... yeah, actually, if I had seen that, I'd have paid more attention to it methinks.

[Tables]

http://i48.tinypic.com/24yybrt.png

I'm laughing so hard at basically this whole page.

edit: Woah that's bigger than I thought. Leaving just a link now

[Galzria]

1-1-1 is an obvious no-lynch situation for the real town Tables, thus presenting the SK with a POSSIBLE win.

[Captain_Frisk]

The problem with a doctor claim was sfs.

He was already voting. If robz or tables had protection, they would know I was lying - and I lose.

[Galzria]

Yay! I got the setup right in post #123 of the QT! Very early call.

That said, the game was well played from the Mafia side. I think there was definitely room for the Town to put the pieces together (even without relying on the C9++ setup). The QT, as Volt mentioned, had some great debates, and I think we were all pretty confident coming into D5 of what the likely outcome was (Picking out the SK was a little tougher, but we got there).

Very enjoyable to watch, and I'm glad Robz was town so he couldn't claim victory over me! HA!

Still would've rather won though.

[Dsell]

Yeah! Can't believe we pulled it off! This was so fun you guys, I really enjoyed it! It was tough and a lot of thought went in to it. Particularly, I tried to give off a SK vibe Day 5 without actually admitting to anything. It was much much safer if everyone thought that I was SK and didn't give a thought to Frisk.

I thought this post was gg:

There are six people left. If 3 of them are scum, maybe I can do this by process of elimination. I know I'm not scum, and I know Tables is not mafia, and I assume that SFS is not mafia.

That would mean that 2 of Dsell, Frisk, and Glooble are the mafia. And unless Tables or SFS are the Serial Killer (the former possible, the later unlikely), the other member of this trio is the Serial Killer.

Frisk is pretty scummy, I agree. But, it worries me that Dsell and Glooble are not at each other's throats. As I've said, I believe their claims are contradictory. The fact that they are not eager to fight over this says to me that they know their claims are false.

What if they are both mafia, and they chose no kill 2 nights ago in order to set up Glooble's roleblocker claim? And they chose not to night kill someone in order to make us belief that the Mafia Thief blocked Dsell? In reality one of them is the Mafia Thief, and they blocked the Serial Killer, who they probably know is Frisk.

[Galzria]

Robz was definitely the one really putting things together. I think he could've gotten there with more time and thought. SFS, it felt like you threw in the towel man! And Tables (whom I figured to be the doctor) I thought really should've matched what he knew up with CF's claim. The thought that "SK would never claim" is just wrong.

Ahh well.

f.DS Mafia +1's to you all!

[ehunt]

Things I've learned from this game:

1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.

2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.

[Dsell]

Things I've learned from this game:

1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.

2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.

I really don't know how I survived that. I figured it would be easy to explain one missing kill, but not three! Props to frisk for trying to trip me up by shooting Axxle too. I guess by the time the town had run through the other likely scenarios (killing Axxle) it was too late to kill me for fear I was the serial killer. And I definitely ran with the mantle.

[Captain_Frisk]

Things I've learned from this game:

1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.

2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.

I really don't know how I survived that. I figured it would be easy to explain one missing kill, but not three! Props to frisk for trying to trip me up by shooting Axxle too. I guess by the time the town had run through the other likely scenarios (killing Axxle) it was too late to kill me for fear I was the serial killer. And I definitely ran with the mantle.

Did you not kill Axxle because you thought he was SK?

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - and +1 to Volt for being a good mod.

-10 to volt for giving me the option to be investigative immune with a 1 shot investigator.

[Dsell]

I didn't shoot Axxle because I though it would be easy to explain one missing kill. It was probably a mistake. And voltgloss was an amazing mod!!!! Top-notch, really. Best flavor posts ever.

[Grujah]

Things I've learned from this game:

1. no really, don't vote in a mislynch-or-lose setup until you've slept for a while and thought hard.

2. if someone claims to be a vig at L-1, then the town agrees to accept the claim if and only if someone else dies, and then that someone doesn't die, and also, there are two other unexplained non-deaths, then don't let that person live for two more game days.

I really don't know how I survived that. I figured it would be easy to explain one missing kill, but not three!

This also surprised me 

Also Robz's posts where he says:
"Tables and I cannot be mafia because we pushed for O".
I was like..  . You clear yourself just like that?
Was really stumped at that point. 

[ehunt]

I didn't shoot Axxle because I though it would be easy to explain one missing kill. It was probably a mistake. And voltgloss was an amazing mod!!!! Top-notch, really. Best flavor posts ever.

yeah, frisk set you up there AND by coincidence you roleblocked him and there's no kills which makes the setup even better. sitting pretty for frisk.  and then town's like, oh, obviously, lynch axxle ...... frisk has got to be like, throwing his computer out the window at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well at the time - it was still possible them both to be mafia - but yes I wanted to lynch Dsell so bad. 

[Captain_Frisk]

My night actions - I juiced them up for Volt because I figured he was as lonely as I was with no-one to talk to:

Kill: Theorel. 

Side note: I'm almost glad that I died in M3.  I was slightly uncomfortable with you knowing this particular role + playing with me alive in M3 - despite having full confidence that you are a standup guy who wouldn't play that way... but this role is EVIL.  Thank you for giving it to me

Kill: Galzria

Dear Galz - I regret doing this, but I feel like its my only way out.  I hope you're mafia, but suspect that you are town.  I'm sneaking into your house and killing you because you have incorrectly read me as O's mafia co-hort, even though I am 100% scum.

Kill: Axxle2

Here's the reasoning for posterity sake.  Axxle2 is effectively voting for his own death here.  This is anti - town - but I don't care - I am also anti-town.

Because I am the serial killer - there are only 4 combinations of alignment for DSell / Axxle2

1.  Axxle1 is mafia + DSell is mafia.  This solution is my least likely, because they are boned if this is the pairing, because if DSell doesn't kill Axxle - he's screwed, and once DSell is revealed, then Axxle isn't long after.  However - if I kill Axxle - DSell can claim it as his own - keeping the town in the dark.  As long as the mafia doesn't kill me.  2 night kills doesn't clear DSell as serial killer at all.

2.  Axxle1 is mafia + DSell is town - telling the truth.  Axxle1's vote for the plan effectivelly means that he's going to die - which is either stupid ... or he'd have to have some role blocking in place to avoid dieing.  That roleblocking would be spent on DSell - who has announced intent to kill Axxle.  My kill will push it it over the edge.  Added bonus - 2 night kills doesn't clear DSell as serial killer at all - so we I can still lynch him in the future.  I like this solution as it gets rid of 1 more enemy while not clearing DSell.

3.  Axxle1 is town and DSell is mafia - DSell needs to target Axxle1 - and he's praying that I target someone else to preserve his cover.  With only 1 night kill - DSell is confirmed as mafia unless someone claims protection.  Guess who likes roleclaims?  Serial killer!

4. Axxle1 is town and DSell is town - Axxle1 is an idiot for voting to kill himself.  2 people die tonight doesn't clear DSell as serial killer.  I'm still screwed because I have no idea who the mafia are - but at least they'll probably join me in a DSell lynch tomorrow.

Kill: RobZ

I do not expect this to go through.

SECRET DAYKILL: RobZ888

[Robz888]

Oh boy, I am here now and just catching up. Darn! Obviously I expected to lose when Frisk flipped SK.

I did think that Dsell and Glooble were the mafia pair today, but I didn't have much credibility left in my own eyes after being so sure about Jo and Axxle. If I were to lay blame it would be with Axxle, who barely complained about a plan that killed him twice.

Another problem was that after Jo was dead, it was basically me and Tables alone trying to piece this together, and we couldn't even fully trust each other until today.

[Robz888]

And I thought we were in such good shape after the Day 2 lynch of O. That was scumhuting to be proud of. Totally squandered after that.

[Robz888]

Reading the QTs now.

[Captain_Frisk]

REading the QT - O was allowed to keep posting?  Why?

[Grujah]

I do not know. I don't like it either 

[Dsell]

It's kinda ironic that not blocking Frisk might have actually helped us. I also love that the last two surviving townies were the two "confirmed" townies day 2.

Glooble was so pro, you guys. I have no idea how he toed the line of suspicion so effectively.

I felt like I was in a mental battle with Frisk and with Robz all of day 5. I had the advantage over both of them because I knew their alignments and they didn't know mine for sure, but I think there was a lot of undercurrent in the conversation between Frisk and I. Lots of information that we knew or thought we knew that nobody else (besides Glooble) knew. And with Robz, he was making too much sense so I had to make others doubt him and ultimately he doubted himself too.

I was really glad O could still talk in the QT but I don't think it would have changed much if he couldn't talk.

[Voltgloss]

I didn't see a problem with O still talking in a QT to which he already had access.  For those who question it - why do you feel that is an issue?

[Robz888]

It's kinda ironic that not blocking Frisk might have actually helped us. I also love that the last two surviving townies were the two "confirmed" townies day 2.

Glooble was so pro, you guys. I have no idea how he toed the line of suspicion so effectively.

I felt like I was in a mental battle with Frisk and with Robz all of day 5. I had the advantage over both of them because I knew their alignments and they didn't know mine for sure, but I think there was a lot of undercurrent in the conversation between Frisk and I. Lots of information that we knew or thought we knew that nobody else (besides Glooble) knew. And with Robz, he was making too much sense so I had to make others doubt him and ultimately he doubted himself too.

I was really glad O could still talk in the QT but I don't think it would have changed much if he couldn't talk.

Really, the fact that I had been wrong about Jo and Axxle made me so unsure of myself that I wanted to defer to Tables and SFS on the last day. Though really I was ultimately right when I said Frisk has no friends, Glooble and Dsell are friends. And of course y'all wanted Frisk dead, you knew was the SK.

[Robz888]

I didn't see a problem with O still talking in a QT to which he already had access.  For those who question it - why do you feel that is an issue?

It's not a problem for me. I had wondered what the policy there was, but it's up to the mod in my view.

[Robz888]

From the QT. This was Galzria:

"Why is Robz generally turning conversation AWAY from CF? AWAY from Jo? (both of whom he suspected HEAVILY D2) AWAY from Pops?

He is systematically going about clearing THE most scum riddled people, and accusing the rest. It goes counter to logical play, and it goes counter to his OWN logic D2.

His play makes NO sense to me and is the single most confusing thing to happen D3."

If only I had done that and kept to it!

[Dsell]

It's kinda ironic that not blocking Frisk might have actually helped us. I also love that the last two surviving townies were the two "confirmed" townies day 2.

Glooble was so pro, you guys. I have no idea how he toed the line of suspicion so effectively.

I felt like I was in a mental battle with Frisk and with Robz all of day 5. I had the advantage over both of them because I knew their alignments and they didn't know mine for sure, but I think there was a lot of undercurrent in the conversation between Frisk and I. Lots of information that we knew or thought we knew that nobody else (besides Glooble) knew. And with Robz, he was making too much sense so I had to make others doubt him and ultimately he doubted himself too.

I was really glad O could still talk in the QT but I don't think it would have changed much if he couldn't talk.

Really, the fact that I had been wrong about Jo and Axxle made me so unsure of myself that I wanted to defer to Tables and SFS on the last day. Though really I was ultimately right when I said Frisk has no friends, Glooble and Dsell are friends. And of course y'all wanted Frisk dead, you knew was the SK.

By the end of day 5 I was trying to be really buddy-buddy, hoping that we would be too obvious to be mafia partners.

[Grujah]

Well, yes.
He is dead, he shouldn't be able to talk to his teammates.
I assumed that was the case.

[Voltgloss]

Well, yes.
He is dead, he shouldn't be able to talk to his teammates.
I assumed that was the case.

I see it as analogous as letting dead Town players join the spectator quicktopic.

[Grujah]

Well, no.
Observer (+Dead) QT has no effect on current game.
O potentially could have had.

[eHalcyon]

Well, yes.
He is dead, he shouldn't be able to talk to his teammates.
I assumed that was the case.

I see it as analogous as letting dead Town players join the spectator quicktopic.

But dead town has left the game, and spectators are outside the game.  Dead Mafia has left the game, but living Mafia are still in the game.  There should be no interaction with in-game players after you have left, IMO.

(ninja'd)

[Robz888]

Hey, QT people: WHERE ARE YOUR ROBZ IS THE SERIAL KILLER THEORIES NOW??? Oh that's right, they're in Wrong Town. Ouch.

[eHalcyon]

Hey, QT people: WHERE ARE YOUR ROBZ IS THE SERIAL KILLER THEORIES NOW??? Oh that's right, they're in Wrong Town. Ouch.

Did you just claim SK for a different game?

[Robz888]

Hey, QT people: WHERE ARE YOUR ROBZ IS THE SERIAL KILLER THEORIES NOW??? Oh that's right, they're in Wrong Town. Ouch.

Did you just claim SK for a different game?

Ha!

[Robz888]

Well, I'll give Galz some credit here. From the QT:

Robz has one big fallacy that I've seen:

He takes all role-claims under preassure to be true.

He completely bought Jo's without a second thought in M-III, and here in 2990, he completely dismisses Dsell lying being the cause of no deaths at night.

Yes, I do that. Actually what I do is immediately doubt them, and then change my mind and trust them permanently. Blargh.

[Grujah]

Just remmebered, one more thing.
There was a line where Dsell said something like:
"I cannot be SK, I wouldn't kill theo" where he sliped that he knew theo was SK kill.

[Captain_Frisk]

Yeah - I kindof view O being able to keep coaching his teammates as unfair.  One of the things that makes Serial killer so damn hard is that you have no-one to talk to....  if it came down to me vs. single mafia, I didn't expect the mafia to have people whispering in his ear.

Same reason why we keep the townie discussion out of the living players eyes right?  We don't want outside thinking to pollute the game.  Ditto for letting town talk while they are dead.

[Voltgloss]

I'm honestly surprised to see this reaction, but if people really want to bar non-Town players from being able to talk with anybody about the game for the rest of the entire game after they are killed, including people who knew their alignments from the beginning of that game, then I'll impose that rule going forward.

[Voltgloss]

So will you all want to require that the remaining Mafia players receive a new quicktopic every time one of them is killed?  To prevent deceased Mafia players from reading the QT and then PM'ing their living teammates?

[Robz888]

I'm honestly surprised to see this reaction, but if people really want to bar non-Town players from being able to talk with anybody about the game for the rest of the entire game after they are killed, including people who knew their alignments from the beginning of that game, then I'll impose that rule going forward.

Voltgloss, the thing is that dead mafia who can still talk to mafia can offer strategic advice to their fellow mafia that impact the game. However, I don't have a problem with that.

[Voltgloss]

I'm honestly surprised to see this reaction, but if people really want to bar non-Town players from being able to talk with anybody about the game for the rest of the entire game after they are killed, including people who knew their alignments from the beginning of that game, then I'll impose that rule going forward.

Voltgloss, the thing is that dead mafia who can still talk to mafia can offer strategic advice to their fellow mafia that impact the game. However, I don't have a problem with that.

I don't either, but it seems several people do.

[Robz888]

Just got through the whole QT. You guys definitely had things figured out, so good job. You guys though had the advantage of several people making a lot of sense, and during the last two days, we did not. We had a huge uncertainty problem. Nobody trusted each other.

[Captain_Frisk]

So will you all want to require that the remaining Mafia players receive a new quicktopic every time one of them is killed?  To prevent deceased Mafia players from reading the QT and then PM'ing their living teammates?

I don't feel strongly against it, i was just surprised - and that it wasn't made public to the other players.  I didn't expect him to be able to provide advice.  You don't need to give a new link - because if the dead mafia would cheat and PM - they would just do it anyway.

[Grujah]

You don't need to give a new link - because if the dead mafia would cheat and PM - they would just do it anyway.

This.

But, I would prefer dead players to be banned from communicating with live allies (or that at least we are told that they will be doing so).

[O]

Guys, I'm sorry but I don't think it was "superior scumhunting" that brought me down  . Robz's batshit crazy plot was, indeed, entirely wrong for everyone but me I 1) had a scumslip that ensured night actions would be directed at me and 2) was soooo sure that SFS was a full cop instead of one-shot, so I was like 85% confident i'd either be cop-outed or NKed. If I was going to die, I wanted to implicate as many people as possible and give Glooble a lot of townpoints. I tried to make Jo, Axxle, Captain Frisk and Pops scummiest, and I think I succeeded with CF and Axxle (Jo got himself lynched and Pops didn't really fall for it, so I got us to NK him. I'm a bit surprised he wasn't doctor but either way we want inexperienced players for the endgame.

I was also running through my head all the ways that a tie could form between Glooble/Captain Frisk, which is interesting but I think a bit bad for the game.

I think dead mafia should be allowed in either the discussion QT or mafia QT, barring them from all communication after death is quite harsh.

[popsofctown]

I haven't caught up on the thread.  But I'm still ticked at everyone for the Jo mislynch.  It was totally stupid.

[Captain_Frisk]

I haven't caught up on the thread.  But I'm still ticked at everyone for the Jo mislynch.  It was totally stupid.

Based on strength of twin claim?

[O]

I haven't caught up on the thread.  But I'm still ticked at everyone for the Jo mislynch.  It was totally stupid.

Based on strength of twin claim?

By a scum twin 

[popsofctown]

I expressed MANY times in thread that scumGlooble + townJoth was plausible.  Either joth was being called town because Glooble's pm said so, or because Glooble was accurately reading his twin, it worked either way.

[Tables]

1-1-1 is an obvious no-lynch situation for the real town Tables, thus presenting the SK with a POSSIBLE win.

Except we wouldn't have an obvious 1-1-1 situation, it'd be possibly 1-1-1 or 2-1.

[Tables]

Also after reading the quick topic, man, Galz, you need to work on your reads .

[eHalcyon]

I actually think dead mafia should be allowed in spectator QT.  By courtesy the dead Mafia should not give any info that the town wouldn't already have.  I only think that people not (or no longer) part of the game - dead, spectating or moderating -- should not be able to communicate with people that are still in the game.

That said, I'd be fine with dead Mafia talking with teammates if it was made clear at the start.  Being dead doesn't preclude winning, after all.

[Galzria]

Also after reading the quick topic, man, Galz, you need to work on your reads .

Why? I was the first person to peg CF for SK, and the only to really believe you had to be the Doctor. Yeah, I came off my death with bad reads, but I was rather influenced by preceding events.

[Captain_Frisk]

@timchen - moving this discussion to where it belongs:

There was no point in which I was really spouting out things that were total BS.  I mean - yes - I knew I was the serial killer, but as you can see from the QT, and even the mafia discussions, nobody knew it was me until Gloob's lucky roleblocked me.  Everyone is plausible as the serial killer - except for maybe SFS... although if I had known there were no rolecops, I would have claimed 1 shot cop at the start.  Next time!

I just needed to double check before posting that I wasn't releasing the limited information that I did have (who I killed).  I wasn't even really sure of the mafia kills on day 1 and 2 because there was a possibility of a vig.

Jonah - did you feel the same way - or were you just totally overwhelmed because of the early bandwagon on you?

 

[Glooble]

Funny story - I roleblocked you because I thought you were the doctor. I was convinced Robz was SK.

I can't believe you guys didn't lynch me. I was so freaking nervous the whole time.

[timchen]

So to continue the question I raised to frisk:

you know axxle is not SK. So the reason you shoot him can only be that you think he is mafia. But dsell is shooting him. So you are playing for the mafia roleblocking dsell, in the case that dsell is really a town vig.

I was wondering why you didn't shoot Dsell. The worst thing can happen (barring that you are blocked) is that axxle survived and dsell flipped town. But if that is the case axxle is probably going to be lynched immediately and confirmed mafia. When you shoot axxle, if he flipped town you then lose a shot, unless you expect dsell shoots elsewhere. But I don't really see a reason for that: either way there will be one kill missing and in the case when mafia dsell shoot axxle he can always claim that the mafia just stop killing to make him suspicious. (Indeed, if he's a vig mafia can do this to buy an extra dsell lynch, not dissimilar to the actual axxle lynch.)

Preedit: I was specifically talking about the analysis you put out when you had a list at some point where you listed different people as probable SKs. Yes it serves very well as a camouflage, but I just can't quite imagine an SK will do so, because he knew already that all this analysis are futile. It's a bit unlike the mafia play where there is a direction they are trying to lead to.

[jotheonah]

@CF I don't understand the question

[Captain_Frisk]

@CF I don't understand the question

Did you find playing sk to be different than town, at least at first?

[jotheonah]

Yes. And that was my undoing- Galz sensed it immediately. There's something about being a one-man team, knowing that if you get lynched, that's it, that makes you way too cautious.

[eHalcyon]

Yes. And that was my undoing- Galz sensed it immediately. There's something about being a one-man team, knowing that if you get lynched, that's it, that makes you way too cautious.

You would have gotten away with it if Axxle had been Cop as he was supposed to be, instead of Rolecop.

[jotheonah]

Doesn't change the fact that Galz pegged me.

[Dsell]

I'm super sad that everyone in the QT knew that I had to be mafia from my roleclaim.

But I'm super happy that everyone still in the game bought it for just long enough.

[eHalcyon]

Doesn't change the fact that Galz pegged me.

Yeah, but I don't think it was your undoing.  If you had been cleared, we would almost certainly have left you alone.  And given that you claimed 1-shot, Mafia probably would have left you as well.  I may have started jailing you to protect you (because Mafia also want to kill confirmed townies?), which would be fine for you as long as you want to claim 1-shot.  Suddenly saying "I'm actually full vig!" would have been somewhat sketchy but still plausible, and then you are manipulating end game, where I think you'd have had a real shot at winning.

[jotheonah]

I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.

[eHalcyon]

I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.

So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?

[Galzria]

I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.

So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?

I believe he said in the QT he would've shot again.

[eHalcyon]

I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.

So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?

I believe he said in the QT he would've shot again.

Hum, I read the QT but that was quite a while ago now.

[Robz888]

I'm super sad that everyone in the QT knew that I had to be mafia from my roleclaim.

But I'm super happy that everyone still in the game bought it for just long enough.

Really I knew you were scum, I just thought you were Serial Killer instead of mafia. But that's too your credit as well.

O, my Day 2 theory wasn't sooo wrong. Every scum person except Dsell was indeed on both the Axxle1 wagon and the Grujah wagon. So I don't think my theory was "batshit" anything.

That's not to say I followed up my awesome Day 2 with anything resembling good play. I think I had things figured out at last in the end, but the problem was I didn't trust myself anymore after Jo and Axxle flipped town. And Tables and SFS were so sure on Frisk, I couldn't really tell them they were wrong. And I had realized that the harder I argued it, the more I was coming off as Frisk's scum partner. And I just didn't know. I thought Dsell was the SK> I should have gunned for Glooble. I forgot about my Day 2 case against him. Gar, so many mistakes.

[Dsell]

I juuuust finished the QT.

Yeah I was super duper scummy, I knew I was pretty obvious (it was by design day 5) but I think I did pretty well just throwing mud on things. A couple of times, Robz was just dominating the town and getting a little too close to the truth, so I went and I tried to discredit him (calling him out as SK, then as mafia last day). I gave lots of solutions to things that sorta seemed to make sense but really didn't. I made a couple probable mistakes that ended up helping out by setting up WIFOMs later (not killing Axxle) but there was so much confusion and very few satisfactory solutions that adding to the confusion wasn't all THAT hard.

For all you sitting in the QT ivory tower: First, we made good decisions killing you (and got lucky with some of C_F's kills too!), but what I really want to say is that it's not hard to come to a consensus when all of the input you're hearing is from confirmed objective sources. In the midst of the game, you can make the most well-reasoned, objective post and nobody buys it because they just can't trust you, and then you get a few people calling you super suspicious for making that post in the first place. Like Volt said, you have asymmetrical information, and it's tough for both town and mafia in-game.

Another thing that's important to know as mafia is to a) keep around people who say things that help you (which can be tough because people change their tune, ie Robz was more of a nightmare day 5 than I thought he would be based on previous days) and b) you don't have to convince everyone on the forum that you're telling the truth, only people within the game. I certainly would have changed my methods some if the town was a different composition on day 5, but the people wanted me to be SK and I was more than willing to play the part.

Finally, I hope that future (closed set-up) games are not based so rigidly on preset standards that the roles involved can be "solved" in-game. Claiming and causing mass chaos/confusion day 3 was the most satisfying experience in forum mafia for me yet, and it worked out well enough, but it's scary that I could have been outed based on a preset standard. I mean, I would have fought against that idea and maybe could have convinced a few people, but I think that for closed set ups, it just makes sense that an effort should go to making them balanced while still allowing for a lot of lee-way within the possible roles. Just so that if someone makes a claim they can't be auto-lynched because they didn't research the inspiration for the setup to know that their claim is impossible. Basically: the first post should dictate the possibilities in the game, rather than a preset game or standard on mafiascum that some might search for and find but others might not. This is NOT a criticism of Volt, who was a really incredible mod, but it is a suggestion for future games. It aaalso would make the QT more fun to read.

[jotheonah]

I wouldn't have re-claimed "actually-full-vig" except as an act of desperation.

So were you actually planning to ride out the game without ever using your NK again, or were you going to use it and act as confused as everyone else?

I was thinking about laying low for a couple of nights and then using it again. Idk, was sort of playing it by ear.

[Captain_Frisk]

So to continue the question I raised to frisk:

you know axxle is not SK. So the reason you shoot him can only be that you think he is mafia. But dsell is shooting him. So you are playing for the mafia roleblocking dsell, in the case that dsell is really a town vig.

I was wondering why you didn't shoot Dsell. The worst thing can happen (barring that you are blocked) is that axxle survived and dsell flipped town. But if that is the case axxle is probably going to be lynched immediately and confirmed mafia. When you shoot axxle, if he flipped town you then lose a shot, unless you expect dsell shoots elsewhere. But I don't really see a reason for that: either way there will be one kill missing and in the case when mafia dsell shoot axxle he can always claim that the mafia just stop killing to make him suspicious. (Indeed, if he's a vig mafia can do this to buy an extra dsell lynch, not dissimilar to the actual axxle lynch.)

Preedit: I was specifically talking about the analysis you put out when you had a list at some point where you listed different people as probable SKs. Yes it serves very well as a camouflage, but I just can't quite imagine an SK will do so, because he knew already that all this analysis are futile. It's a bit unlike the mafia play where there is a direction they are trying to lead to.

Well - knowing what I know now, I probably should have shot DSell - as his claim was total BS - but I didn't know it at the time.  I (mistakenly) assumed that Axxle was the scummier of the two - because HE VOTED TO HAVE HIMSELF SHOT.  I wanted to hug RobZ when he discussed how angry he was at this development.

Ultimately, it didn't matter because they jailed me accidentally (they actually didn't want to jail the SK)

Oh - and more thinking of this - the one thing i was very careful of was to make sure that I kept the possibility of the SK bulletproof blocking factored into any analysis.  I knew DSell was full of junk after night 3 because i didn't expect the town to have 2 protective roles, and I knew that there was no way that the mafia shot was blocked via my bulletproof.

[Dsell]

Tables, why did you doctor me night 5?

[Tables]

Essentially, because it didn't matter. If there were two scum, we were dead as I knew they could block me/kill Robz or vice versa, so no point protecting anyone. If there was only one, it was Glooble. Might as well try and protect the person who he wouldn't have expected to get targeted for lolz.

[Insomniac]

I'm not gonna lie on the last day I was hoping CF was a VT and claimed SK to get people to not mislynch, and well after that HE DID claim SK so that made me happy

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm not gonna lie on the last day I was hoping CF was a VT and claimed SK to get people to not mislynch, and well after that HE DID claim SK so that made me happy

That was one of my thoughts for what to say the next day... but I was thinking of claiming Doctor.  RobZ or Tables would counter claim and we'd have all have a big WIFOM debate.

The more I had to explain about my kills etc. (which was all true) the more I had to concede that I'd be playing for a draw.

Tables!  We could have lived happily ever after!

[Robz888]

Is Axxle around? I got a bone to pick with Axxle. Twice he didn't do too much to argue against us killing him. Twice! Or did he defend himself ably and I was just blind to it? When he wasn't mafia, after Jo wasn't, I was just so lost at that point.

[Captain_Frisk]

Is Axxle around? I got a bone to pick with Axxle. Twice he didn't do too much to argue against us killing him. Twice! Or did he defend himself ably and I was just blind to it? When he wasn't mafia, after Jo wasn't, I was just so lost at that point.

Seriously - I would have fought so much harder for DSell over Axxle if it wasn't for this. 

[Axxle]

Is Axxle around? I got a bone to pick with Axxle. Twice he didn't do too much to argue against us killing him. Twice! Or did he defend himself ably and I was just blind to it? When he wasn't mafia, after Jo wasn't, I was just so lost at that point.

I'm not here, please leave a message.

--------------------------------------

I don't know how to defend myself.  It is a flaw that I have.  I take a large responsibility for our loss because of those big mistakes I made.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't care about your loss.  I want you to take responsibility for MY LOSS.

[Dsell]

Axxle, why were you so trusting of me? I loved it, but it was unexpected.

[O]

I don't care about your loss.  I want you to take responsibility for MY LOSS.

You lost when we roleblocked you and noticed that there happened to be a 0 death night..

[jotheonah]

I should probably blanket apologize for my weird behavior this game. Combination of experimentation, RL craziness that was making me not think straight/hard about the game, and then digging myself a hole that got deeper and deeper.

[jotheonah]

Robz, why did you insist on vigs rather than SKs? That was pretty bad for the town in several ways.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz, why did you insist on vigs rather than SKs? That was pretty bad for the town in several ways.

Seriously!  I was getting ready for a big mega post on how RobZ was the serial killer because of his crazy theories on this + Galz's read.

Your stupid twin brother messed it all up when he claimed and convinced everyone I was mafia.

[Robz888]

Robz, why did you insist on vigs rather than SKs? That was pretty bad for the town in several ways.

Seriously!  I was getting ready for a big mega post on how RobZ was the serial killer because of his crazy theories on this + Galz's read.

Your stupid twin brother messed it all up when he claimed and convinced everyone I was mafia.

Uh, well I dropped that theory when it was no longer valid to explain things.