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Author Topic: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night  (Read 88095 times)

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Galzria

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2375 on: January 27, 2020, 12:58:45 pm »

I just wanna know why ashersky is trying to dupe me in the first place.  ;D

Hes sneaky, that one. But Ive rigged the game in your favor, dont worry.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2376 on: January 27, 2020, 01:00:39 pm »

I believe you could set it up thusly:

Im going to flip two coins. One Coin will be flipped first, and the result will not be public. The second coin will then be flipped, and again, the result will not be public. Place your bet: Choose between Heads & Tails for one of the coins

Mail-Mi Chooses Heads.

Im now going to reveal one Coin & give you the option of staying with your choice for the second coin, or changing your mind. 

Given the possible outcomes: HH, TH, TT, HT, if you show him a coin that is Tails, hell want to stay with Heads. If you show him a coin that is Heads, hell want to switch to Tails. Even though the coins were both flipped beforehand, and one coin flip does not DIRECTLY impact the other, by knowing which subset of {HH, TT} can be eliminated, Mail-Mi can increase his odds from 1/2 to 2/3.

Note that if you tell him WHICH coin youre showing him (first or second), it brings it back down to 1/2 again, as he can eliminate another possibility (if you tell him youre showing him the second flip, and that flip is Heads, the only two possible outcomes are {HH, TH}).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

MiX

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2377 on: January 27, 2020, 01:02:20 pm »

I believe you could set it up thusly:

Im going to flip two coins. One Coin will be flipped first, and the result will not be public. The second coin will then be flipped, and again, the result will not be public. Place your bet: Choose between Heads & Tails for one of the coins

Mail-Mi Chooses Heads.

Im now going to reveal one Coin & give you the option of staying with your choice for the second coin, or changing your mind. 

Given the possible outcomes: HH, TH, TT, HT, if you show him a coin that is Tails, hell want to stay with Heads. If you show him a coin that is Heads, hell want to switch to Tails. Even though the coins were both flipped beforehand, and one coin flip does not DIRECTLY impact the other, by knowing which subset of {HH, TT} can be eliminated, Mail-Mi can increase his odds from 1/2 to 2/3.

Wait, what? What's mail-mi betting on? The second coin being H/T or...any of them being H/T? If you're betting for the second coin to be Heads, and then you're shown that one of them is Heads, don't you stay?
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I dont think even MiX is townreading MiX.

Galzria

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2378 on: January 27, 2020, 01:09:34 pm »

I believe you could set it up thusly:

Im going to flip two coins. One Coin will be flipped first, and the result will not be public. The second coin will then be flipped, and again, the result will not be public. Place your bet: Choose between Heads & Tails for one of the coins

Mail-Mi Chooses Heads.

Im now going to reveal one Coin & give you the option of staying with your choice for the second coin, or changing your mind. 

Given the possible outcomes: HH, TH, TT, HT, if you show him a coin that is Tails, hell want to stay with Heads. If you show him a coin that is Heads, hell want to switch to Tails. Even though the coins were both flipped beforehand, and one coin flip does not DIRECTLY impact the other, by knowing which subset of {HH, TT} can be eliminated, Mail-Mi can increase his odds from 1/2 to 2/3.

Wait, what? What's mail-mi betting on? The second coin being H/T or...any of them being H/T? If you're betting for the second coin to be Heads, and then you're shown that one of them is Heads, don't you stay?

He doesnt know which of the flipped coins youve shown him (first or second). What hes deciding on is, knowing that one of them is Heads, does he change his choice for the remaining one.

I realized after I typed it there was ambiguity in the first/second stuff.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

silverspawn

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2379 on: January 27, 2020, 02:05:38 pm »

The information that you have is obviously not capable of affecting the result of the coin flip or any other aspect of the physical reality, unless you have psychic powers.

Yes, but probability theory should (and does!) confirm this. If it appears as if it doesn't, that's worth investigating, because it means there's a misunderstanding.
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silverspawn

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2380 on: January 27, 2020, 02:37:56 pm »

Man, you really have a talent for asking about fundamentally confusing stuff. It's so hard to give a satisfying explanation to your problem. I think faust's last post is the one that comes closest to that, but I can see why it's not quite there.

To make sure I understand the problem correctly, let me rephrase your point:



If I flip a coin, it comes up heads, and I ask mail-mi to bet on the second coin flip coming up heads, then

Probability for (two heads given that the first coin already landed) = 1/4

and this is the event whose probability matters for mail-mi, because all mail-mi knows is that the first coin has already been flipped. Now I'm forcing him to bet on HH, which, according to the above, only has a 1/4 chance. Question: why doesn't this mean mail-mi gets a bad deal?



Is that it?
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silverspawn

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2381 on: January 27, 2020, 02:48:47 pm »

Assuming I understand your problem, I think the fundamental answer is that you're looking at the wrong event. The event is

two heads given that the first coin already landed

And the probability for this event is indeed 1/4. But you've selected the event you're asking for based on the result of the first flip, and then didn't condition on the result of the first flip. Because of this, the event is less meaningful than you think.

So again, it's true that this event has probability 1/4. But it is not the case that this implies mail-mi gets a bad deal. We know this because, if we simulated the whole experiment (of you flipping a coin, then asking mail-mi to bet), he would actually win the bet half the time, and this is consistent with the fact that the probability for the event above is 1/4.

There's also a reductio ad absurdum of this principle. Say I shuffle deck of cards and put them all in front of me, face-down. I look at one card; it's an eight of clubs. I ask mail-mi to bet on this card being an eight of clubs, at 50/50 odds. From mail-mi's perspective, given that he doesn't know the cards, this is only a 1/52 chance. But of course, he will win the bet every time, so

card is eight of clubs

is not the event that measures how good the bet is for mail-mi. Rather, the correct event is

card is {whatever I've just seen as I've looked at it}

And similarly in your case, the event that matters is

both coins land on {what ashersky is asking} given that the first coin has been flipped but I don't know the result

and that has probability of 1/2.

So I guess, if there's a lesson here, it's something like "if you select an event based on information, but then don't condition on that information, the probability of that event doesn't mean what you think it means".
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cayvie

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2382 on: January 28, 2020, 01:18:40 pm »

this is the sort of probability i feel like i see people mess up all the time in C9++ games or whatever, btw
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cayvie

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2383 on: February 05, 2020, 02:43:52 am »

i just read lost mafia

 :'( :'( :'( :'(
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cayvie

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2384 on: March 09, 2020, 03:48:04 pm »

is this also the "its monday afternoon can i have a pm pls" f5 f5 f5 thread

i wanna know my district
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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MiX

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2385 on: March 09, 2020, 04:00:17 pm »

is this also the "its monday afternoon can i have a pm pls" f5 f5 f5 thread

i wanna know my district

F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 Oh hey new post

Yeah I agree cayvie, but no time to post, gotta F5 some more.

F5
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shraeye

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2386 on: March 09, 2020, 04:08:28 pm »

is this also the "its monday afternoon can i have a pm pls" f5 f5 f5 thread

i wanna know my district
Yeah, I feel that
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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2387 on: March 09, 2020, 04:16:12 pm »

And I am over here in Europe like.... Maybe I get it before going to bed? Maybe? Please?
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cayvie

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2388 on: March 28, 2020, 03:16:12 pm »

i just had a mafia dream where i had to argue why having the role of village made sense in Knight Mafia because it let you play two knights in one turn
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LaLight

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2389 on: March 28, 2020, 03:49:36 pm »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome

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ashersky

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2390 on: March 28, 2020, 10:01:34 pm »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome



That just looks like one piece, not 2000.
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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2391 on: March 28, 2020, 10:19:28 pm »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome



That just looks like one piece, not 2000.

for a second you made me think if I accidentally sent a photo of the box
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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2392 on: March 28, 2020, 10:47:15 pm »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome



That just looks like one piece, not 2000.

That's what puzzles look like when they're completed.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 03:46:04 am by ashersky »
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ashersky

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2393 on: March 29, 2020, 03:46:33 am »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome



That just looks like one piece, not 2000.

That's what puzzles look like when they're completed.


I bet that dark wood-grain part that surrounds the colors was extra hard to piece together.

(Sorry, accidentally modified this into your post instead of hitting quote.)
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raerae

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2394 on: March 29, 2020, 08:06:23 pm »

Wanted to share an image of 2000 pieces puzzle I finished on quarantine, because I think it is most awesome



A+ puzzle ya got there, LL. Wowza!!
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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2395 on: March 29, 2020, 09:51:33 pm »

Awesome work, LaLight!

Glooble, hes gonna need a new puzzle!

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2396 on: April 02, 2020, 04:23:01 pm »

how are y'all doing mental health wise right now?

my anxiety is devastating, i'm glad this forum is here as something else to focus on
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LaLight

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2397 on: April 02, 2020, 05:27:37 pm »

how are y'all doing mental health wise right now?

my anxiety is devastating, i'm glad this forum is here as something else to focus on

I feel the loneliest actually, although there's 3 people with me in an apartment. I play games a lot, I am taking antidepressants and try to talk to people not from home a lot, so I feel less "in a box". I'd say, I am mostly fine, but i really wait for it to be over.
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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2398 on: April 02, 2020, 05:37:27 pm »

how are y'all doing mental health wise right now?

my anxiety is devastating, i'm glad this forum is here as something else to focus on

I feel the loneliest actually, although there's 3 people with me in an apartment. I play games a lot, I am taking antidepressants and try to talk to people not from home a lot, so I feel less "in a box". I'd say, I am mostly fine, but i really wait for it to be over.

Any insight onto what it's like in Moscow? We don't here much from there, as far as I can tell.
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LaLight

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Re: Apparently this is where people talk when it's night
« Reply #2399 on: April 02, 2020, 05:46:56 pm »

how are y'all doing mental health wise right now?

my anxiety is devastating, i'm glad this forum is here as something else to focus on

I feel the loneliest actually, although there's 3 people with me in an apartment. I play games a lot, I am taking antidepressants and try to talk to people not from home a lot, so I feel less "in a box". I'd say, I am mostly fine, but i really wait for it to be over.

Any insight onto what it's like in Moscow? We don't here much from there, as far as I can tell.

People are at home mostly, there were some news that a lot of cases is hidden and there is really too few sick, so no one knows who to believe and people are pretty scared (at least I am talking about the ones I communicate with)
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