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[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

In a game reports thread, RisingJaguar gave the following advice (context is unimportant for my question):

...Try to recognize the start and evaluate if you are behind or ahead, that should be able to tell you a bit of the outcome.

This notion of evaluating whether I'm ahead or behind (and I don't necessarily mean score) is something that I think I'm getting better at - recognizing that I'm behind, at least from the standpoint of believing that my opponent has made better choices in the first 3 or 4 turns. My question is: what sorts of things should I be thinking about if I believe I'm behind (in those terms) early in a game?

Multiple posts over the past few months have stated that it's usually a good idea to stick with a strategy if at all possible.  I may still lose by sticking with an inferior strategy, but I will gain information that is usable long term - viability of my combo, pace of the game with the two strategies in play, etc.  AND I avoid increasing the likelihood of losing due to a large change of direction putting me further behind in terms of the quality of my deck.

I know everything is board dependent, but can I get some broad brushstroke ideas?  Maybe "categories" of things to evaluate?  Again, the question is "what sorts of things should I be thinking about/evaluating if I believe I'm behind (in terms of deck quality) early in a game?

[Davio]

I disagree with the "stick with your strategy" advocates.

My deck has no memory. It doesn't know it was intended to do this or that. Everything you do advances the state of the game and you have to make the best decision based on that information.

This doesn't mean you should throw everything out of the window once it goes wrong. If your deck is suited for Gardens, but not Provinces, well, you can try to grab them, but you won't succeed. What I mean is you have to decide whether you want to stick with the plan of rushing or aim for a longer game where your Gardens are worth more.

[WanderingWinder]

"Stick with your strategy" is probably too dogmatic. What you always want to do is have a coherent strategy. What I mean by that is that I'm always picking up something that makes sense with what I have, as Davio suggests above. There are sometimes many things that make sense with your deck, and sometimes there are very few. But I am not going to be grabbing throne rooms after I have gone for a pretty action-bare BM strategy. And I'm probably not going to be grabbing coppers in my engine (though hey, depending on your engines, they can accept just about anything).
Indeed, there are lots of boards, particularly where there's lots of strong options and/or lots of interaction, where I will purposefully delay committing to any particular strategy in order to be able to react, and choose later, based on the strategy which my opponent is pursuing. The flexibility may be worse than "going for" any of the more straight-up strategies on the board, but it can still be better overall, because some strategies really counter others.
But trying to copy someone else's plan even four or five turns after they've started down that path, is usually a losing proposition, if you've committed hard to something else, or don't have any components that will help you out there. Four or five turns is a lot. Heck, two turns is substantial.

[TheMathProf]

If you have a good sense that you're behind early, then you really have to determine whether it's because you've got a poor strategy or a strategy that starts slower.  An engine deck may often start out behind a big money deck, especially if that engine is built towards multiple Province turns or alternative VP sources (such as Goons).

But if you're thinking you're really behind, and that continuing with your strategy is likely to leave you unable to catch up, consider some strategies that may increase your likelihood of catching up.  Some possibilities are:

• Alternate VPs.  Victory point chips are one potentially easy way to make up for a lack of greening, but sometimes alternative VPs can give you a way to catch up when you're not chasing Provinces.
• Opponent Sabotage  If you're opponent's deck is better than yours, it is sometimes worth considering cards that either devalue your opponent's deck.  Saboteur comes to mind, but Swindler can also be effective (be careful of the Province count if it's already made it that far) in terms of replacing good cards with worse ones.  If the Ambassador war isn't completely one-sided at this point, another Ambassador might help to even the score a bit.  And if his deck is really good, a Masquerade may force him to make some uncomfortable choices while you get rid of your garbage.
• Strategy Adjustment  Maybe you thought you were going to be able to get an engine going, but you got flooded with Curses that are getting in your way.  Or maybe your Chapel strategy got going moderately OK, but he's managed to Thieve all your good money away.  It's times like this where you may need to adjust strategies.  What do you need that you don't have?  Is there a way to get it?  Sometimes there isn't, and you just have to shake your opponent's hand, learn something from the experience, and fight again another day.  But sometimes there is, and that card you dismissed as not being very engine-like is very handy in a deck that all of a sudden has sputtered to a stop.

I'll also agree with Davio.  A strategy is a great place to start, but when your opponent(s) gets to play, too, you sometimes are going to have to figure out how to adjust to the changing circumstances.

[Jfrisch]

I (very) often don't know what my final deck will look like before I've started building it. It turns out that you don't need to know and often can't. Sometimes the shuffles don't pan out the way you want them too. What I DO, usually know before I start playing is what will be the major players in my game plan/what types of paths I might take. I might end up going purer/less pure BM depending on the set up. But I need to have VERY majorly screwed up to open cache/courtyard and pick out a lookout later. In general, don't buy cards which actively clash with the deck you've built. But it's perfectly fine, and in fact, better, to react to the situation on the board than to play multi-player solitaire.

[sitnaltax]

Additionally, if you're getting beaten by a different strategy from the one you started down, don't panic and try to follow the winning strategy belatedly. I see novices do this a lot with trashing cards: I open Chapel/Remake/Steward/Trading Post, and by turn 7-8 start rolling; then the novice finally buys the trasher, but of course by then it's far too late.

[DG]

Sometimes decks are separate and sometimes they are linked. Ambassador and masquerade are obvious cards that link the two decks but tribute, jester, mountebank, pirate ship, bishop, governor, tournament, possession, vault, tunnel, trader, and other cards can link decks as well. It's worth knowing how frequently your opponent can play these cards and the effect they will have on your deck, or how your deck will change the value of an opponent's cards. It's wise to have plan 'B' or plan 'C' available to match the different ways that that your opponent can play a linked deck.

Key cards are also worth watching. For example, you can make an estimate of how quickly the peddlers will be bought out and how they will be split between the players. You can then adjust your strategy to harness that many peddlers at the right time and not persist with a peddler purchasing strategy when the pile is empty.