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Author Topic: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)  (Read 39410 times)

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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #100 on: June 08, 2012, 02:08:54 am »
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You'll have to be more clear I guess because I don't understand what you're saying. The odds that exactly one player finishes 5-0 in a 32 players 5 round tournament is 100.0% (again discounting draws and dropouts) and the variance of individual games/matches is irrelevant. It holds true for a tournament with all 50/50 matchups and it holds true for Stef vs 31 idiots. One player at 5-0 when the tournament is over.

I don't understand B. Are you saying that because the variance is low in Dominion (ie the best players have very good winrates against the worse players), even in a large tournament we can expect the best 8 players to often end up 5-0 because they won't face each other and they will be beating up the lower level players? If so I would say that's extremely inaccurate in the context of an IsoDom tournament, but I guess it's more subjective/up to interpretation than what I'm arguing in above posts, at least until we dig out some data, plus I don't see how it's relevant in any way, anyway. Something like "It's ok to do a crappy tournament system because the best players are winning no matter what"? Not a fan of that type of reasoning.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 02:11:39 am by Fabian »
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O

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #101 on: June 08, 2012, 02:12:55 am »
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Essentially yes. Having 40 players instead of 32 in a rock-paper-scissors contest is going to produce less 5-0s then having 40 instead of 32 in a dominion tournament.

I also think 4-1 will probably an easy cutoff point for a top 8 even with more than 32, with yes, a nasty tiebreaker situation or playoff denying someone from the top 8.
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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #102 on: June 08, 2012, 02:22:31 am »
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"Essentially yes. Having 40 players instead of 32 in a rock-paper-scissors contest is going to produce less 5-0s then having 40 instead of 32 in a dominion tournament."

Care to put some numbers on that? I mean, I think you're right, but I think it's something like 1.26 on average instead of 1.25, and only because in the final round a 4-0 player paired down against a 3-1 player is more likely to have a 55% winrate than a 50% winrate like he would in r/p/s. The difference is really really negligible.

As for what will and won't make top 8 in 5 rounds of swiss, that's easy enough to calculate (on average, since anything other than 32 results in non-clean results). With 40 players and 5 rounds, 7.75 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. With 48 players, 9 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. etcetc
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O

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #103 on: June 08, 2012, 02:27:22 am »
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"Essentially yes. Having 40 players instead of 32 in a rock-paper-scissors contest is going to produce less 5-0s then having 40 instead of 32 in a dominion tournament."

Care to put some numbers on that? I mean, I think you're right, but I think it's something like 1.26 on average instead of 1.25, and only because in the final round a 4-0 player paired down against a 3-1 player is more likely to have a 55% winrate than a 50% winrate like he would in r/p/s. The difference is really really negligible.

As for what will and won't make top 8 in 5 rounds of swiss, that's easy enough to calculate (on average, since anything other than 32 results in non-clean results). With 40 players and 5 rounds, 7.75 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. With 48 players, 9 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. etcetc

Is this match winrate or game winrate? Take some random player, lets call him Fabian, as the top player in our tournament. His game winrate might only be 60% but that should give him a much higher match winrate that I'm too tired to calculate.
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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #104 on: June 08, 2012, 02:31:26 am »
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I was talking overall match winrate, but it's pretty irrelevant since I just made the number up. Let's call it 53% game winrate instead if you prefer (which results in a match winrate of 55.61%), it's just to illustrate a point.
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nightdance

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #105 on: June 08, 2012, 04:14:44 am »
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I'm in! My first and (probably last since official app is coming out) IsoDom!
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bozzball

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #106 on: June 08, 2012, 05:22:42 am »
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I'm in.
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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #107 on: June 08, 2012, 05:34:57 am »
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Also before any stat guys come in and scold me for calling it a "normal distribution", I know it's binomial (if you simplify to ignore draws, anyway) and only approximately normal bla bla etc. I hope my points gets across either way, just when I reread the posts it annoyed me that I said it just because O did :)
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Kirian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #108 on: June 08, 2012, 09:43:41 am »
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You'll have to be more clear I guess because I don't understand what you're saying. The odds that exactly one player finishes 5-0 in a 32 players 5 round tournament is 100.0% (again discounting draws and dropouts) and the variance of individual games/matches is irrelevant. It holds true for a tournament with all 50/50 matchups and it holds true for Stef vs 31 idiots. One player at 5-0 when the tournament is over.

Unless, as you mention, any of the top players are randomly matched up with one another earlier in the tournament--say, in round 2, after each has won once.

Anyway, the likelihood of dropouts is quite high.  Which simply messes things up further, though mainly at the lower end of the tournament.

As for what will and won't make top 8 in 5 rounds of swiss, that's easy enough to calculate (on average, since anything other than 32 results in non-clean results). With 40 players and 5 rounds, 7.75 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. With 48 players, 9 players reach 4-1 or better, on average. etcetc

I get 7.5 players reach 4-1 with 40 in the bracket.

Will draws be possible in this tournament, by the way? That is to say, if we play five games and end up 2-2-1, should we be playing a sixth game?

Hadn't actually thought about that.  Given that it's a tournament format that supports draws, it makes sense to stop at five games no matter what.  So yes, draws will be possible.
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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #109 on: June 08, 2012, 09:52:37 am »
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Kirian, if Stef and Obi Wan play in round 2, one of them will advance to 2 wins. Then, since that player has a 100% winrate against everyone else, he'll obviously win the last three rounds and end at 5-0. Every time, exactly one player ends up at 5-0, no exceptions.

And yeah dropouts often have very little effect on what it takes to make the t8. People tend to drop after 2 losses, and especially if they lose 2 matches early, meaning their chance of making it on X-2 is very close to zero anyway because of bad tiebreakers.

About the 40 players, I failed to add 1.25 and 6.25 (the numbers showing up in my spreadsheet) properly in my head. Sorry about that :(
« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 10:10:25 am by Fabian »
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BadAssMutha

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #110 on: June 08, 2012, 10:49:56 am »
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I think we're past 64 people by now, but if someone drops out, I'd like to be in.
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Lekkit

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #111 on: June 08, 2012, 03:28:15 pm »
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I'd like to play, if there is still room, or if someone drops out. :)
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Green Opal

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #112 on: June 08, 2012, 07:40:22 pm »
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Actually I need to drop out, so someone at least can take that spot if it's still being held at 64.
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Dsell

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #113 on: June 08, 2012, 09:16:20 pm »
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I need to drop out as well. Sorry about this, I really loved the last isodom but I'm taking a vacation soon that will probably fall right in the first rounds and I'm not sure that I'll be able to play very consistently after that.
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zxcvbn2

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #114 on: June 09, 2012, 04:41:39 pm »
+1

I'm sure you're doing the exact same thing, but I got bored and put together this spreadsheet organizing everyone by isotropic rank: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah6dTyQTfYBBdGNtTWxUdnhVb0FnT29EYXZsQkJsZXc

Feel free to use it if you like. :)
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Kirian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #115 on: June 09, 2012, 05:03:54 pm »
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I'm sure you're doing the exact same thing, but I got bored and put together this spreadsheet organizing everyone by isotropic rank: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah6dTyQTfYBBdGNtTWxUdnhVb0FnT29EYXZsQkJsZXc

Feel free to use it if you like. :)

You rock, good sir.  Or madam, don't want to assume things any more after That Other Thread. :)

I think after the discussion, I will in fact divide things into three brackets, with 23 in the top bracket (which makes it 38+), 23 in the middle bracket (26+), and 22 in the U26 bracket.  (I'm inserting myself into the middle bracket to fill things out a little bit.)

This means the top bracket will be highly, highly competitive, and the lower bracket will be, well, pretty random... but I think that's how most bracketed Swiss tournaments work anyway.

Pairings will be posted shortly.
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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #116 on: June 09, 2012, 05:23:11 pm »
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I would recommend splitting into groups of even numbers so as to reduce the number of byes?
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Stringer Bell

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #117 on: June 09, 2012, 05:48:05 pm »
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I'm sure you're doing the exact same thing, but I got bored and put together this spreadsheet organizing everyone by isotropic rank: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah6dTyQTfYBBdGNtTWxUdnhVb0FnT29EYXZsQkJsZXc

Feel free to use it if you like. :)

Hey, I'm not last! Also, for those of us who haven't played in a Dominion tournament before, is there going to be a specific time to log on to isotropic to play these matches, or do we just set them up individually with our opponents, with a certain end date for each round in mind?
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Kirian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #118 on: June 09, 2012, 06:07:31 pm »
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I'm sure you're doing the exact same thing, but I got bored and put together this spreadsheet organizing everyone by isotropic rank: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah6dTyQTfYBBdGNtTWxUdnhVb0FnT29EYXZsQkJsZXc

Feel free to use it if you like. :)

Hey, I'm not last! Also, for those of us who haven't played in a Dominion tournament before, is there going to be a specific time to log on to isotropic to play these matches, or do we just set them up individually with our opponents, with a certain end date for each round in mind?

Set them up.  Generally people do so in PMs.  End date is 19 June for round 1.
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Stringer Bell

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #119 on: June 09, 2012, 06:19:56 pm »
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I'm sure you're doing the exact same thing, but I got bored and put together this spreadsheet organizing everyone by isotropic rank: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah6dTyQTfYBBdGNtTWxUdnhVb0FnT29EYXZsQkJsZXc

Feel free to use it if you like. :)

Hey, I'm not last! Also, for those of us who haven't played in a Dominion tournament before, is there going to be a specific time to log on to isotropic to play these matches, or do we just set them up individually with our opponents, with a certain end date for each round in mind?

Set them up.  Generally people do so in PMs.  End date is 19 June for round 1.

Okay great, thanks.
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DIonized

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #120 on: June 09, 2012, 06:31:54 pm »
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I can't commit to playing every week, but if you need someone to fill in for a match, let me know.
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Fabian

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Re: IsoDom 5: Sign-Up Thread (ENDS 09 June)
« Reply #121 on: June 10, 2012, 03:39:45 am »
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Didn't look at the tiebreaker rules until now, but it seems kinda silly to remove the best and worst opponents' scores to calculate tie-breakers in a 5 round tournament, no? Those three opponents that do count is not very much to go on. Also I'm not sure what cumulative score means here?
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