Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 49 50 [51] 52 53 ... 60  All

Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 153911 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1250 on: June 14, 2012, 01:59:30 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

Wrong, actually. Ehalycon is the most confirmed person we have, as nobody died last night and Ehalycon was the only one to claim a protective role.

Second is still obviously Axxle, the claimed Cop with no counterclaim and a correct call on our SK.

Logged

Voltgloss

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 224
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1251 on: June 14, 2012, 02:03:33 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

Wrong, actually. Ehalycon is the most confirmed person we have, as nobody died last night and Ehalycon was the only one to claim a protective role.

Second is still obviously Axxle, the claimed Cop with no counterclaim and a correct call on our SK.

Fair enough.  I don't suspect either of them regardless. 
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1252 on: June 14, 2012, 02:04:06 am »

Axxle and eHalcyon are confirmed town in my mind. I'm not even considering any other possibilities. For the ONE other townie out there besides them and me, only one person is telling you the truth. You need to decide which person is telling the truth. If you are right, then ALL others (again, excepting Axxle and eHal) are mafia.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1253 on: June 14, 2012, 02:06:51 am »

I have figured out who I believe and am ready to vote on that conviction since Axxle's investigation did not catch anyone in a lie (though I would still like to hear it from Axxle after yuma responds to the questions that have been raised). I am just waiting for yuma's response to vote, basically.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1254 on: June 14, 2012, 02:54:22 am »

We have 7 still alive, 3 Mafia.  If Dsell is town then we have 3 townies, 3 Mafia and we won't lynch Mafia unless someone gets bussed.  If Dsell is Mafia we actually have a chance without his vote.  Probably a better chance, actually.  But if we think Dsell is Mafia then we might as well vote for him... if there's a question to it, we have to determine who is most likely.

I am saying all this without saying who I think is most likely.  Still waiting on yuma.  Axxle's "should've been a cop" reveal does change things up a bit...  But again, waiting on yuma before I elaborate.  Others may already be thinking about this things, of course.

In the real possibility that we won't be able to get to a vote before Dsell leaves,

Insomniac, can we get a deadline extension?

We may not need it since we should have a day after Dsell returns(?), but just in case.
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1255 on: June 14, 2012, 02:54:58 am »

First paragraph is who we have, minus Dsell.
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1256 on: June 14, 2012, 02:59:56 am »

Nope, coming back the 23rd.  :-\
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1257 on: June 14, 2012, 03:03:22 am »

Also, I have no idea if it's possible, but I'd love if we could get the day mostly settled by tomorrow rather than having a deadline extension. I'd much rather finish the day when I remember things and then start a new day fresh after a break.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1258 on: June 14, 2012, 03:06:36 am »

OK so yeah, can we get an extension?

And if Axxle is OK with it, I think you might as well post who you intend to vote and the rationale behind it before you leave.  But don't actually vote.  I defer to Axxle because he still has more information... though I'm not sure he has anything actually useful.  From what he's said, it's doubtful he found a Mafia role.  Possibly he can confirm yuma's claim.  Maybe he can confirm my claim, though that's not really necessary at this point (and if he had that info he probably wouldn't have had me claim until the end, or at all).

But I digress.  Dsell should post intended vote and reasons if Axxle approves.  I'd prefer it if yuma speaks first but we might not have that chance, whether by chance or by design.

PPE: I agree it would be best if we settled things.  Do you still have the full day tomorrow?
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1259 on: June 14, 2012, 03:11:13 am »

but we might not have that chance, whether by chance or by design.

Ugh.  Wish I could edit this to use a different word.  Dramatic phrasing fail.  :P
Logged

Insomniac

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 785
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1260 on: June 14, 2012, 03:13:11 am »

If everyone wants an extension and it will be needed I will grant one, as we knew ahead of time Dsell would be leaving. Because not everyone might want an extension I'll ask for this by PM so as to make who votes which way secret
Logged
"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1261 on: June 14, 2012, 03:15:29 am »

In all honesty the only reason I have the balls to do this is because I'm town.

Vote: No extension this week, possible extension next week.

I don't want to win with a cheap extension on our backs, and we have already laid out all the information we'll have (minus Axxle's inspection), so we might aswell try and finish this now. As i'll be in hawaii my internet access will also be iffy for the next week.

P-edit: I'm fine with it public, I'm vetoing it now. Plus this way we don't have to wait for a mafia currently not online to veto it, maybe after Dsell already leaves.
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1262 on: June 14, 2012, 03:17:04 am »

I have the full day minus late at night (leaving at 4 am :o ), but I will be very busy. I'm gonna do my very best to keep up though. Between my ipod and getting a little time on my computer, I should manage.

I also have a potential plan for how to handle the night roles, assuming we lynch mafia today. So I guess I would love to be alive for the end of the day. Slash I can post it tomorrow.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1263 on: June 14, 2012, 03:36:14 am »

so guys.. lets get talking?
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1264 on: June 14, 2012, 03:38:54 am »

Really, O?  ???  Fine.  :P

@Dsell, post your night plan after yuma responds.  Or if Axxle thinks it's fine, maybe post it even sooner.

PPE: I still really, really want to wait for yuma's reason for choosing Eevee over any other target, or no target at all.
Logged

eHalcyon

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8689
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1265 on: June 14, 2012, 03:48:34 am »

In hindsight, once I was confirmed town, I wish I had claimed that I had jailed someone superfluous, like Voltgloss, just to see how everyone would respond.  The danger, of course, is that people might get overzealous and quick-hammer based on my lie.  ;D

Claiming I had jailed Axxle might be even better, though it would have been most effective before others had claimed, when I was not yet confirmed.  ::)
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1266 on: June 14, 2012, 03:51:10 am »

Because it is a really crucial time for the other townies to believe my town status, consider the following:

Myself and Axxle are the only two living players remaining who were not on the Morgrim wagon. I am the only one left who did not vote for him at all. By doing this, by advocating against a hasty lynch even when I thought Morgrim looked suspicious (but warned that his erratic play has made him look suspicious in the past!), I was really sticking my neck out there if he turned out to be mafia. If we both turn out to be town, I was just advocating smart play.

However, the fact that I was not on the Morgrim wagon has not shielded me from any suspicion. In fact, some have already suggested that I deliberately stayed off to evade suspicion (thus singling me out for suspicion).

The question is, were ALL of the Mafia on the Morgrim wagon?  Or did one of them stay off when it was clear his vote wouldn't be needed, to try to build his credibility for the following day (if it came)?

It's a hard question to answer.  Which is why my suspicion of you isn't really dependent on it.  I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

The simple fact that I was not on the Morgrim wagon does not guarantee my town status. That's fair. It doesn't. But to single me out for suspicion because I stayed off the bandwagon seems to stretch things. Though Volt had agreed in the previous paragraph that at least some (indeed, two of three at minimum) of the mafia were on the Morgrim wagon, he named no names as suspicious and glazed over that fact.

As town, my day 3 actions make sense. Advocating smart town play at the risk of appearing to defend mafia (better than hastily lynching town!). As mafia, my day 3 actions make no sense: If Morgrim was mafia I'd be the next obvious lynch. And if he's town, I still get suspicion heaped on because it would be "such a smart mafia play to defend a townie when the lynch is imminent." The far better plan is to blend in, blame Morgrim, and appear sad after we mislynch. After all, the game was practically won for the mafia after that mislynch, right?

I'm smart enough to know that someone would pick up on the argument Volt made. I thought it could very well be mafia who made it. After all, if the whole mafia IS on the bandwagon, what better place to point than the lone guy standing apart? So why, as mafia, would I want to make myself stand out like that while advocating what was clearly good town play, i.e. not being hasty when in mylo.

The fatal flaw but-not-really that I caught in the pre-post edit: If I'm mafia and stayed off the bandwagon, maybe I could have gotten away with defending Morgrim. My mafia buddies wouldn't call me out and the town might completely overlook the idea that I was mafia, feeling bad after lynching one of their own. But this did not happen, I was called out. So is Volt town and just made the horrible argument that even though I defended town, I am the most suspicious? Looks like mafia picking on the easiest target to me guys.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1267 on: June 14, 2012, 03:54:38 am »

As a corollary to my final idea, I really wasn't even the easiest to pick on. Eevee and yuma both had worse records than I and had just helped lynch town. They had also lurked more. If Volt was looking for an easy target (assuming he's mafia here), why go for me instead of them? Easy, because they're chummy. Just remember this when Volt flips mafia.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1268 on: June 14, 2012, 04:07:34 am »

I honestly don't see how me posting my pick-ups can hurt so here it is:

Scummiest: Yuma. To believe his claim is to believe that the 1-shot vig was targeted (33% chance assuming they're smart enough to ignore Axxle) and blocked the night he tried to use his shot.
Second scummiest: Voltgloss for the Hammer (which isn't as bad as a tell when he was hammering a townie in MYLO) and his bad logic where he tried to question Ehalycon, our most confirmed townie.

Who completes the trio in my mind? Its a tough call between Eevee and Dsell, for me. Dsell's recent "I got off the bandwagon" argument is interesting but raises a few qualms in my mind. Eevee's is a damn excellent mafia if he's scum after the massive freaking townread I had from his post, but he lurks.

I lean towards thinking Eevee is the other VT. Fortunately for me that's not the decision to be made today: I only have to vote for scum, not find the entire trio.

I won't vote yet though obviously as that would 1) Be a major scumtell, which might loosen other people's conviction I'm VT and it's also just dangerous and stupid.
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1269 on: June 14, 2012, 04:11:15 am »

O, I would love to hear your qualms and try to address them tomorrow (or even when I come back).
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1270 on: June 14, 2012, 04:12:05 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1271 on: June 14, 2012, 04:14:27 am »

O, I would love to hear your qualms and try to address them tomorrow (or even when I come back).

Lets address #1/2 suspicions before we get to next weeks lynch, a bit more important really.
Logged

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1272 on: June 14, 2012, 04:17:01 am »

Ok, fair enough. And i'm right there with you on suspicions, so I am hoping that at least the next two days will be somewhat straightforward.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1273 on: June 14, 2012, 04:25:37 am »

I also have a potential plan for how to handle the night roles, assuming we lynch mafia today. So I guess I would love to be alive for the end of the day. Slash I can post it tomorrow.

If you have a plan, say it now. I almost misinterpreted this to mean *your* plan for nightroles and was about to claim 90% certainty on a volt-yuma-Dsell trio. But nope, still between Eevee/Dsell, sadface.
Logged

O

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 836
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1274 on: June 14, 2012, 04:28:13 am »

Actually, reverse that. DO NOT POST PLANS UNLESS THEY ARE 100% GUARANTEED TO WORK

I place my confidence in Ehalycon and Axxle.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 49 50 [51] 52 53 ... 60  All
 

Page created in 0.088 seconds with 20 queries.