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[eHalcyon]

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.

No.  I don't want you to change your mind or forsake your conviction.  I want to see the logic behind that conviction.  I don't mind if you make a giant post about it as in Mafia II.  Your role in that game just means your post will undergo more scrutiny; it doesn't automatically invalidate what you have to say.  Alternatively, you can present your case as succinctly as possible.  Either option is better than saying you are sure of J's guilt while presenting no case at all.

[Galzria]

My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.

[Robz888]

My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.

Any lynch is not better than none, except for the mafia!!!!!! Lynch of a town is worse than no lynch! Why is this so hard to understand??

[Robz888]

If he thinks I'm town he shouldn't vote for me. And he's said he's certain I'm town.

[eHalcyon]

I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.

I'm not trying to defend Robz at all.  If you refer to the post that I quoted, I also listed a possibility that both are Mafia.  I'll just quote that whole section:

Galzria's Certainty

Galzria was saying that he's certain Robz is a Townie.  He later says that it's because he doesn't hedge, but even then how can he be certain?  Given how sly he was in Mafia II, I can't imagine that he would exaggerate a day 1 town read on Robz as certainty.

These are the explanations I can come up with right now:

1. Galzria and Robz are both masons (or some similar role).  If this is the case, I don't see a reason why they shouldn't role claim, but I'm a newb. 

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

3. Galzria and Robz are both Mafia.  If Robz doesn't get lynch, that's a win.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria can argue that as a Mafia member there is no way that he would tie himself so closely to another Mafia member, and -- oops sorry -- that he just made a really bad read on Robz.

4. Galzria has some exotic role like a Cop that can act during the day.  That's a real role, right?

At this point, I am finding #1 and #4 less likely.  I find #2 more likely than #3.  Although throwing Mafia under the bus now would give Galzria some credit, losing a teammate would still be a tough pill to swallow.

[eHalcyon]

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

[O]

He was talking about the deadline being extended for next week. We have 7 hours tonight, regardless. It's unfair to the mafia to have a random extension right now. (and no, i'm not mafia)

[Captain_Frisk]

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend. 

[Insomniac]

The extension is for Day 2. Any extension given today would be too short notice to be fair

[eHalcyon]

Oh, my bad.

O, you implied you were going to campaign for Galzria day 2.  Why not switch now and try to make something happen?

[Galzria]

Here's why lynching a town is better than no lynch. I'll use smaller numbers to make it easier:

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we no lynch a townie dies at night leaving 6. There are now 4 town and 2 Mafia, and all 4 town must vote together to reach a majority. If they mislynch again, 2 town die, and the game ends.

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we lynch a townie
and one dies at night, 5 remain. There are now 3 town and 2 Mafia, and all 3 town must vie together to reach a majority. If they mislynch, Mafia wins.

Both situations end with a Mafia win, but it is EASIER to get 3 town to vote together than 4. This argument holds true for any situation where there starts an odd number of people in the town. If we have an even number (first example after no lynch), it is better to no lynch again, to allow for the fewest number of town votes to lynch Mafia.

But we have 13. Lynching a town is better than not lynching. Today we need 7 of 10 (maybe 9). No lynch means we need 7 of 9 (as 12 players remaining, it takes 7 to reach majority).

[O]

I'm.. not sure. I hate Galzria's playstyle. I really really do. I also enjoy pissing Galzria off in this mafia game (its quite fun). But do I think he's mafia? Before he switched to Robz, I didn't really think so. But why the hell would he switch to Robz? It was ridiculous, after he vouched so hard for Robz. But it could be because we pressured him as a townie to the breaking point.

[O]

"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria

[Galzria]

So do I think Robz is Mafia? Not really. Could he be? Ehh, maybe. Does it MAKE SENSE for me to leave my vote where my convictions are, resulting in a no lynch? No. If I could get people to vote J today, then yes. But with the deadline approaching it's apparent I can't. I would be hurting the town more to just "let" a no lynch happen because of my convictions and stubbornness.

[jotheonah]

Whoa, lots of new stuff.

Yay to the rest of the town for coming out and talking, that's the first thing I want to say. I feel like we have momentum now. The trouble, of course, is that we don't have a clear target.

Robz's and O's belief in my claim clears them somewhat in my book. The mafia are the ones who I expect to be advancing the "he's faking it" agenda since lynching me is much safer than nightkilling me, which might fail if I'm protected somehow.

So, who has made those arguments? Captain Frisk, and Galz. Could Captain Frisk be mafia? Absolutely. But he's stayed off my radar so far, and his points about my role claim are good points - it would be a convenient scum claim in several ways. I would hope that the lack of a counterclaim would be good evidence in my support, but CF's post could just as easily read to me as town.

Now Galzria... Galz talked about unvoting me when I softclaimed, but when I actually claimed he didn't back down. In fact, he didn't unvote me until people became so aggravated with his certainty that it started looking like people would turn on him. The longer his crusade against me has gone on, the less town he's looked in my eyes, and I'm happy to see I'm not alone in that view.

What else bothers me about Galz? He keeps making comments about how he either is or isn't going to die in the night. In fact, he's gradually made the switch from "I am gonna die tonight" to "They're going to keep me alive tonight to breed suspicion." This reads to me like mafia making sure he has a good excuse for surviving night one. Recall that in M-II, one tell that very nearly unraveled G's masterful game was when I became suspicious that he hadn't been nightkilled yet.

I was thinking G was town because his crusade was so unrelentingly obvious that the mafia would never do that, but last game's results are relevant here. Galzria just came off a game as mafia. He draws mafia again. How can he make sure he won't get caught by someone analyzing his meta? Adopt the totally opposite mafia strategy. And from what I know of Galz, I can just see him taking this kind of a risk with his Day 1 play - especially if his two cohorts are still out there.

I was feeling dirty about the E vote because my confidence that he's scum is low. And I agree with Robz that no lynch is not the end of the world for town, in a case where town really can't decide. But neither of those votes is necessary if I can vote for someone who I really, truly think is scum. Unless some overwhelming evidence falls from the sky, I will not be changing my vote again today.

Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.

[Galzria]

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

[Eevee]

@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend.

I fully agree, maybe extending next weeks deadline by two days and then having all the subsequent deadlines fall on a wednesday?

Galzria, I'm not saying you shouldnt try to convince others when you have a strong hunch. I'm saying you would be more likely to have some success if you appeared more like you got to your conclusions using the info all of us have available. Saying you are 100% sure is just moronic if you are a vanilla townie, surely you wouldnt make a bet about it if I laid you 20-1 (even if you should if you are 100% sure). That means a) you know something others dont (mafia, mason?) or b) you actually arent as sure as you make it seem.

[Galzria]

Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.

[O]

O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.

[eHalcyon]

Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.

To be fair, if you ARE Mafia, you wouldn't make the switch because it would look vindictive and scummy, and it probably wouldn't gain traction.  But there is a wagon now...

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

There's a chance we might still be stuck at 6 and end with no lynch.  This isn't going to make me unvote.  What might make me unvote is if you give ANY good reason why you suspect jo so very much.  You have avoided that again and again.  The strongest case you've made is that he appeared very pro-town to you.  That's not strong enough.

[Galzria]

O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.

Just the truth. /shrug

[Galzria]

No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".

[O]

No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".

Perfect record? I lynched a townie with my first vote.

[eHalcyon]

Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.

I disagree.  A lot can happen before we get into a lylo situation.  Heck, a lot can happen TONIGHT.  We have no idea what power roles are out there, and that can really matter.

[jotheonah]

For the record, eHal, if you look at the length of my post and the time stamp on my post and O's, you'll see that I was composing it long before I saw his vote.