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[Galzria]

Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).

[Dsell]

Galzria, I'm not asking you to make a claim about pairs, I was asking for the purpose of my point, which is: you are super super confident that Robz is town and you are becoming increasingly confident (it would appear) that O is mafia. Not only have they voted the same way, they have both attacked me for being a bad townie and have generally agreed with each other most of the time. Do you feel just a little bit that your confidence could be misplaced?

[eHalcyon]

Galzria: I understand your first point.

I'm OK with your second point.  People aren't saying that they believe him, but that it is foolish to lynch him immediately after the claim.  I think your position is reasonable, but so is the other position.  I fall in line with the latter -- I want to give jo a chance.

Your certainty makes absolutely no sense to me.  Unless you have a special role that confers that knowledge on you, you simply don't have that knowledge on day 1.  Perhaps jo just had some tell that you picked up on and everyone else missed.  OK, sure.  That is almost believable.  If someone were to make such a tell, it's unlikely that they are town that accidentally appeared super scummy.

But what about Robz?  You were certain, absolutely certain, that he is town.  Why?  How can you be sure he isn't Mafia that has played a good game so far (and that's actually questionable -- plenty of people found his behaviour suspect).  Why are you assuming that your DAY ONE reads are absolutely correct?

I can believe that you have a strong read that jo is Mafia.  I can believe that you have a strong read that Robz is not.  I find it had to swallow that you know both of these things with certainty after a single day.  "I don't waffle, I don't hedge" does not work for me.  You might want to be presented with an "actual reason to be wrong", but I haven't seen satisfactory evidence from you that you're right.

You are becoming more and more suspicious to me, but my fear is  that you might have a special role that gives you certainty, and you just don't want to reveal that role.  I can't tell if you are serious that you are simply not waffling or hedging.  It really doesn't seem like you -- you were a very smart player in Mafia II, and claiming certainty does not seem smart at all.  Did you go after people with "certainty" in that game (even though it would have been an act)?  Can find examples?  How did you react when it turned out you were "wrong"?

I'm actually pretty satisfied with no lynch at this point, and not just because my head is one of the ones on the chopping block. I feel like there's a lot of important information out there, and a lot of interesting alliances and rivalries, but I can't make sense of them yet. Perhaps our investigators or doctors will learn something helpful. Perhaps the mafia kill will put things in perspective.

I absolutely disagree.  There are clearly several camps forming up.  It would be easy for Mafia to select their kill to manipulate the feelings of those who have yet to join a side.  If one of these factions is Mafia-infested, they could kill one of their townie supporters.  Or they could go after the other side and argue double bluff.  Or they could leave all this factional fighting alone and kill someone who isn't active.  No lynch leaves us nowhere, unless you expect we have several town power roles who will get lucky tonight and make a claim tomorrow.

[Galzria]

You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.

[Dsell]

That was very well-put eHalcyon, and I especially agree with your last paragraph. I think that while we have some good information, the mafia may be able to use their kill to manipulate one group and get some "see, I told you so!" reactions out of people, leading us to use our information poorly. I can't say for sure whether that would work, but I could see it happening.

[Galzria]

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

[O]

"As quiet and misleading"

Quiet? You're now saying I've been *quiet*. Of all things, quiet.

You're getting increasingly ridiculous with your accusations.

[eHalcyon]

Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).

So you think O may be bad town, or Mafia?  Why the waffling here but not on J?  I understand the uncertainty.  I am still trying to make sense of why you are so against J.  I don't see a major case against him.  Did you present one and I've just forgotten?  The worst thing I remember you saying about him is that he appears to be too pro-town.  I think that is an OK reason to be suspicious, but a very weak reason to be certain.

NOTE: this was being typed up before Galzria made his new vote.  Going to respond to that now...

[Eevee]

can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)

[O]

can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)

If you can convince people to vote for def, I guess I'd consider. Good luck though, people seem to be stuck on the magical-J-O-Robz trio.

[Galzria]

The "certainty" thing is just who I am. I can't explain it better. But I will respond to well made thoughts, and will change my mind. Circumstances dictate I do so. I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.

[O]

"The certainty thing is just who I am"

I read Mafia II. The certainty thing was not evident in your 6-page tome. You were mafia then.

So are you just a really really really really terrible townie?

[Eevee]

hmm again guys, what does hedging mean?

[Galzria]

And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.

[O]

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  , if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...

[O]

And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.

Have I really personally attacked anyone but you?  I said Dsell followed you too closely, but I didn't mean to insult him.

[Eevee]

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

[Robz888]

Y tu, Galzria?

I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.

Why? It makes objective sense to lynch no one, rather than lynching a member of the town. I understand that no one can be sure I'm not town--but you, WERE sure, until just recently.

Let me explain my thoughts on No Lynch here. First of all, in Mafia II, I argued strongly that No Lynch was very bad. Well, I was a mafia member, so that was a misleading thing to say. In truth, it's better to lynch no one than lynch the wrong person. The mafia absolutely do want us to lynch somebody today, as long as that person is not mafia. The mafia want somebody to die every single last time there is a chance that somebody could die. We, the town, must be more judicious.

The worry about not killing anybody on Day 1 is that on Day 2 we are in the same boat. However, we aren't in the same boat on Day 2, because we have learned a lot of crazy things.

Here's the preferences for mafia: Killing innocent > No Lynch > Killing mafia
Here's the preferences for town: Killing mafia > No Lynch > Killing town

Are we going to kill a mafia right now? I am not a mafia. Jo is a One Shot Vigilante. I suspect Eevee, which is why I voted that way, but I'm not positive at all.

[Captain_Frisk]

You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.

Interesting!  My gut feeling is that galzria voting with me is a bad thing.  After all the certainty - confidently claiming rob is town - now you vote for him?

Fwiw - despite still feeling slighted about your value to the town etc., and really being put off by your style of posting suspicions as facts, I do agree 120% agree that J's role claim is the absolute weakest out there.

Not only given a closed setup that the odds of any specific role counter claims are low, but then the claimed role is:

- impossible to prove without wasting it's power
- provides great cover for other roles: serial killer, godfather, probably others I'm not aware of
- its power increases the longer he survives without using it.  Claiming day 1 makes it increasingly unlikely that he will live a long time - if his claim is true


Finally, he went out if his way to lay the ground work for a possible counter claim, that there Might be 2 one shot vigs in the same game?  Why stop at 2?  Maybe we are playing a game with 3 mafia and 10 one shot vigs?  (note: someone should run this game!)

The only thing that stopped me from voting for him was your support of rob and statement of absolute certainty that j is mafia.

What does everyone else think?

[eHalcyon]

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA

[Eevee]

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  , if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...

oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.

[O]

"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  , if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...

oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.

I was being facetious (joking) about the poker thing, don't worry.

[Captain_Frisk]

#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA

I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.

[Galzria]

galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.

[eHalcyon]

By the way, in my earlier posts I said that I had an idea for what J's power might be that would be best kept secret.  Since he didn't claim it, I just thought I'd share -- a revenge role.  That is, a role where he kills anyone who kills him in the night.  I kind of wish that had been it, as it would have been a nasty surprise to the Mafia member who tries to kill the freshly-revealed town power role.  Not sure if that kind of role has ever been used before, but it would be neat.

This closed setup sure adds a lot of tension.  So far I've been assuming two town power roles like the other games we've had, but that seems less likely to me now.  Possibly jo is telling the truth about one-shot Vigilante powers, and that there are some others with one-shot abilities.  I expect that there is at least one townie with a full power role (I would say Cop or Jailkeeper, maybe both).  And as I suggested earlier, perhaps the reason there are factions formed up (well less so now that Galz turned on Robz) is that there are multiple Mason groups.

Maybe the closed set up is to hide the fact that the town is overloaded with power roles?  It certainly gives the Mafia a chance to divide and conquer.