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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 153683 times)

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #575 on: June 02, 2012, 09:13:26 pm »

If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #576 on: June 02, 2012, 09:19:11 pm »

That's fair Volt. Like I said, it read, well, apparently just like you wanted it to.

But you'll forgive me if I can't base my reads off you based on what's in your head and not in a post. I could only judge - and react - on what you've done, not what you plan to do.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #577 on: June 02, 2012, 09:25:06 pm »

So, def's been MIA for more than 48 hours now, how does this prod request thing work?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #578 on: June 02, 2012, 09:26:26 pm »


Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #579 on: June 02, 2012, 09:27:54 pm »


Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?

Doesn't mean I can't try to get information where I can!
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #580 on: June 02, 2012, 09:34:03 pm »

This is really interesting. And rereading his vote for Robz, the reasons he gives are pretty cursory (though...I guess there wasn't that much more to say at that point). Then he disappeared. I feel quite good about my vote for Robz but I do think it's important to settle on someone, so I may change my vote at some point. I would like to give him a chance to defend himself and I may not be able check this for several more hours (RL gaming).

So I'll leave it at that until later tonight I guess. I'd really, really love to hear from Morgrim, def, and eHalcyon too.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #581 on: June 02, 2012, 09:34:47 pm »

Oops, when I say "his," I'm referring to Jotheonah. I was basically responding to Voltgloss' longer post.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #582 on: June 02, 2012, 09:52:23 pm »

Ok, I am paranoid worried that I will not be able to vote, (unless I can vote before church tomorrow) so I am going to vote now.
Vote: jotheonah mainly for the same reasons as everyone else. What more can I say that has not been over-analyzed?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #583 on: June 02, 2012, 10:59:33 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb, Voltgloss, Morgrim7
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (2) - def, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT

michaeljb: I have sent a ping to def
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #584 on: June 02, 2012, 11:30:33 pm »

Hmm, while the case Galzria is presenting against joh feels quite compelling, I'm kind of hesitant to cast the "penultimate" vote given I still think Robz is more mafia-y. That being said, I'd rather see johtheonah lynched than nolynch, we have something like 24h left so if joh is the only "realistic" possibility, I guess I'd be content with him as well (yeah, him rather than me at least for obvious reasons).

As a somewhat unrelated note: I find def's silence pretty damn suspicious at this point. Feels like he's just avoiding any attention, and town players tend to try help town at least some. We obviously have more pressing matters to discuss today but just putting that out there in case I die at night (seems unlikely but what do i know) or something.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #585 on: June 02, 2012, 11:35:59 pm »

A bit off topic, but I wanted to respond to Robz's inquiry much earlier (I still can't believe how much more gets said by adding just 4 people. Day 1 looks prepped to exceed both other Mafia games length on just the first day!):

I was born in Howell, Michigan. Grew up in the Lansing/Brighton area. Lived for some years in Aurora, IL (way cool), and now reside in Sunnyvale, CA. I'm 27, and studied Political Science, with an emphasis on Constitutional Law, and Film/Television cinematography with an emphasis in Journalism.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #586 on: June 02, 2012, 11:41:17 pm »

Oh right, I'm a 21 year old male, I live in Helsinki (Finland, Europe if you really dont know your geography) and play poker for a living. It was amusing to have you puzzled with the avatar and everything but the jig is up. :)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #587 on: June 03, 2012, 12:09:38 am »

If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)

Does no one else see that this doesn't make any sense?

First Volt says "I find Robz suspicious for the reasons Dsell laid out"

But, he says, new information! Jtotheonah voted for Robz. That makes him more supicious, therefore he must be mafia.

No! Volt, you also voted for Robz. You're saying that my doing EXACTLY WHAT YOU JUST DID is the extra information you need to know I'm mafia.

I voted for Robz because we're close to the deadline and need a lynch. You know, the same reason you're all suddenly changing your votes to me.  So tell me why that reads more scum than town? Your confirmation bias is making you see it that way, but if you look at the facts, all I did with that vote was exactly what the rest of you are doing with your votes. This is crazy. Robz is still your top suspect. The case against me is still (1) VERY FLIMSY and (2) led, to a suspicious degree, by a single player. Don't get taken in.

Consider that Galz and Robz were both convinced Volt was mafia, and now that he's changed his vote it's very unlikely we both are. So that shows about how much their convictions are worth.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #588 on: June 03, 2012, 12:15:46 am »

About worth as much add we're given. In your case, more than enough. In Volts case, half the story (at first).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #589 on: June 03, 2012, 12:21:19 am »

Sorry, reading that, it was a little more crude than I intended. My whole thought process on Volt was that he HADN'T acted like Volt. And in a very suspicious way. My thoughts on you, I don't believe are flimsy at all (obviously). And Volt's responses have had a lot more credibility than yours. I'm more inclined to believe his actions for his stated reasons.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #590 on: June 03, 2012, 12:22:53 am »

*Sigh*

Ok, I was hoping it wouldn't come to this. And you probably won't believe me. But I'm not JUST town and it would be a very big mistake to lynch me Day 1. I will do a full claim if the town thinks it's best.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #591 on: June 03, 2012, 12:26:30 am »

I'll leave that to others, but I'll point out first that it's not surprising. People thought Robz would as Mafia, and sure enough, when the frying pan got hot... Nothing. 5 votes YOUR way however...
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #592 on: June 03, 2012, 12:28:58 am »

Galzria, will you at least grant me that if I am what I say I am, a power townie, it's the right play for me to claim right now?  I will also point out that, if you are still keeping your mind at all open, it should make you see your "protests too much" case against me in a different light.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #593 on: June 03, 2012, 12:36:40 am »

Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #594 on: June 03, 2012, 12:41:01 am »

Damnit J, you were not going to be lynched. At least, not if I could sway it against you (as I did in M1)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #595 on: June 03, 2012, 12:42:13 am »

Hey,  I will always own up to my mistakes. I just don't believe I've made one at this time.

I hope there is a day in the future where we can be Mafia together, instead of against each other/not known. I enjoy having you in the game... Just not enough to not kill you when you've raised my suspicions.

Mason teammates would be cool too.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #596 on: June 03, 2012, 12:44:21 am »

You may just have to settle for us having been town together. For one day.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #597 on: June 03, 2012, 01:21:25 am »

I will UNVOTE for the sole purpose of letting jotheonah have his say in the morning without having to worry about being lynched in his (RL) sleep. 

I also still would like to see Robz's rebuttal to the points I raised.  I understand that, with his timeschedule, that probably won't be coming until the next few hours (when I'll be asleep too).  So, a lot to read in the morning.

Once I've seen what Robz and jotheonah have to say, I will again vote.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #598 on: June 03, 2012, 01:24:03 am »

I hate hate hate that this is going to the last minute. O, I want to hear more!! You say things like "you were not going to be lynched," so say whatever you were going to say anyway! I want to know where your suspicions are at, especially because your vote for Eevee before looked reactionary and it doesn't look like it will be a factor now anyway.

I still may end up voting for jotheonah but I want to at least respect that he could be a power role and not put him in a hammer position. Also, I'm STILL more suspicious of Robz. Seriously, his rebuttal to Volt's arguments made me MORE suspicious of him. Volt has changed his tune and it looks like he has his reasons, and that's great. But because of the supposed roleclaim (why would you string us along till morning, jo? We are in a hurry and it just looks like you are wasting a bit of time) and because my suspicions of Robz are as strong as ever, I'm still keeping my vote on him.

I think I'll be up for a couple more hours...I'm on Pacific time and will try to check in the morning again, then of course in the afternoon assuming there hasn't been a lynch yet.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #599 on: June 03, 2012, 01:32:38 am »

Well, I just find it pretty likely that Robz and J are both likely NOT mafia. Who I do suspect I'd rather not say, as I can't really put my reasons for suspicion into words ATM...
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