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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 153734 times)

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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #475 on: June 02, 2012, 02:50:25 am »


2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


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Vote:Eevee

First of all: no offense taken / didn't mean my post as a personal attack either. It's just a game, I hope I didnt ruin our isodom bronze match.  :D Secondly, saying you are a terrible player altogether was stupid of me, I apologize. What I meant to say is "that part of your game is terrible and cannot be justified". Marin isnt a terrible dominion player even if he sometimes doesnt end the game with a win but rather drags it along for two extra turns having fun with his engine. Not ending the game with a win when you have the chance is always a terrible dominion move.

Your vote to me seems like it was casted just because I made was offensive towards you (and again: it was very out of line of me to phrase it the way I did) and you got angry. Not drawing any conclusions of that though, it's an understandable reaction. I do not think it's a particularly valid reason to vote for someone (unless you really think I'm mafia), but it is what it is. I tried to state my reason for a) voting this early and b) choosing Robz. Basicly, we are so close to our deadline we need to start making decisions, I wouldnt have voted yet if that wasnt the case. I do not think Robz is a bulletproof mafia and quite frankly would hope we had more time but we dont, we have two days or something so I thought the thing to do was to start casting votes to people you suspect the most - even if you aren't sure. I do want to contribute, I know I'm clean so at least I have more of a chance (and incentive) to hit mafia than the rest of you on average.

@Robz
Admittedly I havent played much, but saying "posting a medium amount, some of it jokingly but most of it seriously and somewhat analytically" is mafia behaviour and "posting the bare minimum" is town behaviour seems hugely surprising (I want to say "inaccurate" but I dont really know, what do others think about this?). I dont really get what in particular has made me a suspect, we basicly have 3 groups of players: "leaders" like you and Galzria who are really active and keep the discussion going, sort of guiding it (these are the most experienced players). "Participants" like me, who post whenever they are asked a question or otherwise adressed or whenever they get an idea (or think of a joke) they want to share with others and "lurkers" who decide to do most of their talking by their votes and post very little. Seems like you want to peg the 2nd group as mafia, I think in reality we are mostly people who havent played enough to lead the discussion but try our best to contribute still (and improve all the time, I hope I'll be able to take a bigger role in the future, at least when playing with people less experienced than i am).

I dont think people really change their "group" regarding their role either, imo lurkers are just quieter people, people who like to observe. Participants a) dont have enough time to be real leaders or b) dont yet know how to do it. Leaders know everyone thinks of them as these analytical and awesome posters and know they have to do the same when mafia to not be completely obvious (apparently Galzria did a pretty good job with this in some other game).

Dont really know how else to defend myself - this is me trying to help town to best of my abilities, not me trying to be in the middle ground as a mafia member (apparently middle ground is where best of my ablities carry me). Tbh I dont think I'd have the courage to post even this much or this long if I was mafia, at least IRL my heart is racing pretty much a 100% when I have to lie all the time (which is odd, bluffing in poker is so much easier for some reason).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #476 on: June 02, 2012, 03:11:56 am »

Don't worry Eevee, I personally have not found your contributions scummy. I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for you day 1, in the same way that I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for Robz.

Now, I know that a bad lynch IS better than a no lynch because, well, the only person I KNOW is town is myself. So even if I don't believe someone is Mafia, they will still have a higher chance to be than I do.

So I will not rule out switching my vote at the deadline if I can't convince people to think backwards. I want to make sure we lynch SOMEBODY, but I would prefer it to be the person that I suspect. Alas, the troubles of being a team when you don't know who your teammates are!

That said, I would ask everybody to step back for just a moment and think: "If I were Mafia, how would I act, and how would I want the town to see me?" You'll start to understand why I find such strong pro-town play day 1 so much more suspicious than someone who appears (with 13 people playing) to give off slight Mafia "tells".

Most of you have admired that your feelings aren't strong, but that you just don't feel more comfortable with reads on anyone else. I understand that. I do. But put yourself in the Mafia's shoes (I've been there, remember) and you'll see why your angle of approach is wrong.

((I only refer to day 1, btw. After, everything goes out the window).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #477 on: June 02, 2012, 03:13:24 am »

Most of you have admitted*
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #478 on: June 02, 2012, 03:20:43 am »

Also, to be clear J, I'm not on a witch hunt for you. You're a really great guy. I'm just calling things as I read them. It's... Different, being on the other side of the fence, but I'm sure I can use what I learned AS Mafia to find them in this game.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #479 on: June 02, 2012, 03:36:58 am »

Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #480 on: June 02, 2012, 03:54:37 am »

Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).

That's completely fair, and I've been waiting for SOMEONE to point that out (if only because I've been listed low by a few people). I am town, but if you don't suspect me, I think something is wrong.

A) I read strong town in M-II, and was Mafia.
B) I went after people I could make cases for being Mafia.
C) It worked handsomely.

Mafia like to be people who read town, and drive the wagon to find people who read Mafia.

You SHOULD suspect me if I read absolutely pro-town. But my defense is that I, at least, am trying my best to teach my fellow townies to read Mafia. J has been trying to get people to find Mafia-like behavior. He also tried to turn people on each other with his "exercise", so you would do the Mafia's job for them.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #481 on: June 02, 2012, 03:57:03 am »

*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #482 on: June 02, 2012, 04:10:49 am »

*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.

Absolutely, give me a few.

Before I put it up though, I want to make this point NOW, before it looks like I'm being forced to defend it later: I don't want to be accused of leading the blind. It would be very easy for J to turn around and say "Well look at how he strung all us along in M-II, and now he's just doing the same thing with you!". This (I hope) is NOT the case. I don't want you to follow my vote of J because I say so, or I make a good case. I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

Could the Mafia be double-bluffing by acting MORE suspicious to make you think "Well, there's no WAY they could be that obvious" (Think O here people)? Sure. But that's a move to make with a veteran crowd who know not to jump on the people who appear scummy early. With this many inexperience people, their best bet is to HIDE by appearing to be one of the town.

Anyway, on to putting together my post RE: J.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #483 on: June 02, 2012, 04:26:21 am »

Mafia double-bluffs are certainly possible, but take the pretty massive risk that they just don't get single-bluffed at all. I mean, TINAS was pretty damn near lynched in Mafia I due to his erratic play, and Morgrim WAS lynched due to it.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #484 on: June 02, 2012, 04:41:29 am »

I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

I think you are mostly talking about my suspicion of Robz here? But I think perhaps you are/were missing the original idea of it...he was taking a much more "no-risk, appear townie" approach which just seemed really uncharacteristic of when he was the town. Like you are advocating searching for in a mafioso, he looked too pro-town (and by this I mean boring, in-the-background town) for him. Then after prodding him a bit some of his other responses (in addition to his defense, which is expected) appeared at best, unhelpful, and at worst, a bit scummy.

But it really didn't start from a "mafia tell," it was just me thinking, "where is larger-than-life Robz, champion of the town, whose accusations and defenses are airtight and filled with awesomeness? And who is this boring, vanilla player who has taken his place?" So I sorta called him out on it, which got the ball rolling even more and made me more suspicious.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #485 on: June 02, 2012, 05:40:58 am »

Alright, at the request of Dsell (although I would like to keep this short(er). No books this game!):

I started to type this out, explaining step by step how I came to my conclusions, and realized that it was going to become WAY to long for me to start setting a standard now. So instead I'm going to bullet point with commentary.


  • Where does Jotheonah stand on letting people sit with a few votes?

I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.

Seems to be pretty good advice. Don't panic over a few votes, because with this many people, a few votes can't hurt. Let's look at how he applied that advice to himself:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

Taken all by itself, this seemed like a nice thing to do. And in fact, he even had ME thinking that:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.

Buuut, not entirely. Those posts are back to back, and I was wary of how pro-town it felt even then. When Jotheonah unvoted, there were only 3 votes on O. One below the 4 that he admits being the "worry" number. And even 4 is only the "worry" number if the Mafia plays EXTREMELY poorly by hammering out the last 3 votes. So outside of "being a nice guy" there wasn't much reason for him to retract his vote except to give off a pro-town vibe. Is that damning all by itself? No, not really. Confusing, certainly. Saying one thing, and doing another for the sole purpose of being nice just didn't sit right with me.

  • Why was I wary of Jotheonah by that point?

Jotheonah's unvote post was #310. He stated in it that he was going to bed, but "jokingly" accused eHalcyon of not participating in his exercise. His "exercise" was post #291, less than 20 posts earlier:

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)

This was the post that grabbed my attention. I posted in M-II MANY times over that the Mafia would do their best to stir up confusion and suspicion. While I did my best to remain as "town" as I could there, I also did my best to poke and prod as many places as I could. J does a good job once again of phrasing this post to appear pro-town (especially the "don't actually vote" - Do you REALLY think that was necessary?), but stop for a moment and think what this ACTUALLY does.

I can't recall who (I think it was Dsell, though maybe C.F.) said they weren't REALLY suspicious of Robz, but were just taking part in this "exercise", and it was Robz's response that made them start thinking as him as a possible Mafia. There are a lot of people in this game. If accusations start flying around by townies without any real drive behind them, we will end up self-lynching ourselves. So what does he do? He starts this exercise, and then gets outta the way by "going to bed".

This was a great Mafia move in a town this size. His first response to both my above accusations is this:

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.

By his own admission earlier, O should not have appeared to be in any "real danger". That unvote served no purpose except to make him look good. He knows that his case for survival in later days is going to be how he composed himself early. It worked for me, why not for him?

His second point is more to the truth of the matter. "I think it's working". Let's look at who had "accused" who in his "exercise":
#315, Voltgloss -> eHalcyon
#312, eHalcyon -> Morgrim/O
#304, Dsell -> def/Robz
#294, Galzria -> O/Volt
And much further down (at Eevee's first chance online), you have post #365 (will quote that a bit below): Eevee - Jotheonah/O

And that's not to mention Yuma or C.F. who had Morgrim voted already.

So his seemingly helpful exercise has caused the town to blow up in suspicions of each other, NONE of which he had a hand in. Why is that important? Two reasons:

1) He can't be tied back to any bad lynch that comes from that
2) He has town jumping on town.

We have SIX people as listed suspects in that list (seven if you include him from Eevee's post). Two of which are still primary suspects in most of your eyes. And NEITHER of those two has J connecting to them.

  • One last point before I go. This is already way longer than I wanted and as I'm tired, probably not as clear as I intended. Eevee's post #365 (Taking part in the "exercise") and J's response to it:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here)

That something you can't explain Eevee, is that he is too damn "pro-town". Everything he's done he's done in a "to help the town" manner, but has done anything BUT, or cast him in a better light. And before you could get more time to try and think what it was:

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.

The very first person that suspected him in his exercise, he flips out over. **Oh No! How could THAT have happened! Well, good thing Eevee didn't bring any PROOF.** Boy, shoe doesn't fit so well on the other foot, does it J?

-----

So there you go. Probably not as clear as I normally would like, but I'm tired, and I don't have AS much at stake as my M-II game. Again though, I ask that you not be led to my conclusion based on my argument, but based on your own reasoning. I just ask that you stop to consider, "How would *I* act if I were Mafia? What would I try and do?" I feel that if you look at J's posts through that light, you'll notice that he looks pretty darn scummy. Not because he appears to the TOWN as scummy, but because he DOESN'T, yet his actions don't lead to good Town results.

To sum up:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.
His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.
He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #486 on: June 02, 2012, 05:41:31 am »

I flunked the "not long" test. Sorry.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #487 on: June 02, 2012, 10:37:45 am »

Oh good lord. Let's get into this.

First of all, I'm sorry for the disappearing act. I did SAY I was going to be not around much this weekend. I went out with friends last night, ended up sleeping elsewhere, don't have a smartphone.

Galzria took the opportunity to lead a town charge against me while he knew I wouldn't be able to defend myself. For those of you who haven't read M-II, one interesting highlight was when he, as mafia, led a blatant town charge against Kuildeous.

Normally I wouldn't expect mafia to be so obvious on Day 1, but there are some factors no one has pointed out:
1) There are 3 mafia this game. That means they can afford to play more recklessly. Two mafia can survive for a long time.
2)The looming deadline is going to impair our judgment, and that's too good an opportunity to pass up. Consider, those of you taking this crusade seriously: How would you have felt about it 3 days ago? How do you feel about it in the spectre of OMG WE MIGHT NOT LYNCH.
Yes, I know no-lynch is good for the mafia. But killing a townie is even better for the mafia.

A few more things before I respond to G's points.  Earlier he said that the mafia would encourage town to vote based on "scummy" behavior, but the real mafia would play in a pro-town way.  I agree with that. But you CAN'T IGNORE that it implicates Galz as much as me.

If someone is being helpful, you want to keep them around.  It's not pro-town to lynch your best people because they're being straightforward in their intentions. If you do kill me this round, when I flip town, I hope you'll see it as a lesson in that regard.

No, on to the point-by-point:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.

I've actually explained this above. Yes, a hammer fear was part of the reason I unvoted O and a hammer didn't look that likely. But I also unvoted O because I no longer suspected him to be mafia. I didn't really want to contribute to starting a bad bandwagon, and I'm glad that our suspicion has rolled another way (though I'm hoping that way isn't toward me, obviously).
 
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.

This is just the vague "he's too pro-town" argument dressed up in specifics. I unvoted O because I no longer suspected him. That's pro-town play. Literally any pro-town play can sound like mafia play if you add "to set himself up as looking good for future days" to the end.

His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.

I beg to differ! The point of the exercise was to get the ball rolling and get everyone talking. Ferret out those lurkers.  It did that. It's hard to say, looking, how much of the ensuing conversation came out of it and how much would have happened naturally. I was worried our town, especially the newer players, wasn't talking enough. I got you talking. You're welcome.

He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list

I've said before, I'll say it again. I advocate bold play, not stupid play. It's great to get out there and make accusations. In fact, it's key. It's bad (and it reads scum) to get out there and make accusations with no proof backing them up. I would think this would be self-evident. If you don't have a concrete reason to suspect someone, what does accusing them do. Does it, maybe, spread confusion? The thing Galzria is always saying is so bad for the town, and the thing that he also said was bad for the town in MII, where he was mafia?

Eevee is a new player eager to learn how to play the game. I explained what I consider to be a key tenet.


Deep breath.


You're a promising town. You're using good critical thinking. I can't tell at this point if Galzria is leading a ballzy scum charge or if he just has a totally wrong read and is employing confirmation bias. But I encourage the rest of you to critically think about this.

I know I'm playing differently than Mafia II, and that can look strange and worrying. In particular, on a few occasions I've been less nice. In retrospect, I flew off the handle at Eevee, I voted for O because he was being annoying, and in this post I'm admittedly getting a little miffed at Galzria.

In Mafia II, nice did not turn out to be an asset.  So this game I'm going for good town play, but also being bold, willing to put myself out there, even throw my vote around. If this gets me lynched, that will suck, but I guess I'll have learned a lesson for next game.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #488 on: June 02, 2012, 10:40:29 am »

I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #489 on: June 02, 2012, 10:47:06 am »

I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.

Holy crap that was a lot of text for someone with 1 vote on them. 
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #490 on: June 02, 2012, 10:54:06 am »

One vote and an essay. One vote by the last game's master mafioso. I'm just trying to nip this thing in the bud.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #491 on: June 02, 2012, 10:57:25 am »

Ok, I know I said I was done, but I want to just retract the implication that Galzria is mafia. It's way too obvious for day 1 mafia play, even with the possible reasons I stated above. I let myself get carried away. Rereading, I'm convinced Galz is town. He's just wrong about me.  And that makes total sense since, as he pointed out, I am playing similarly to how HE played as mafia last game.  But I'm also playing how I play as town.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #492 on: June 02, 2012, 11:05:49 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #493 on: June 02, 2012, 11:33:06 am »

Ok, I'm hunting through the posts so far and I'm coming around to Robz's (and Galz, really) assertion that the mafia is playing a middle game, not posting too much, not posting too much substance.

And what jumped out at me is def has posted very little, but his posts have been articulate and helpful-seeming. And he made an excuse early on where he said "I'm only going to post if I have something to say," and then went into a long post about having a real life.

So I'm thinking, what better way to ensure Day 1 survival then 1) establish some credibility 2) fade out, giving strong reasons for that.

I know I should be targeting someone who already has votes on them though if I'm going to help us get a lynch. And I'm still not convinced by Robz's defenses. Plus Robz is so good at this game that I'll never stop being suspicious of him, which is going to cloud my judgment on subsequent days.  And he's doing the accuse-your-accuser thing at Dsell, although he then cast his vote for Eevee.  Is voting for someone who already has votes on them town at this point or mafia?

CF suggested before that the mafia play for today is a no-lynch, which would be brilliant, actually.
It means the mafia are likely among those who have yet to vote, the people who will have a good, good excuse on Day 2. And it would point, again, to someone like def.

So I'm going to Vote: def even though it doesn't bring us much closer to a lynch. Having reread, he seems the most likely scum candidate to me.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #494 on: June 02, 2012, 11:43:19 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #495 on: June 02, 2012, 11:54:22 am »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.

Hey, I fully respect that. Nobody does. And lord knows I talk way too much as well. As I stated earlier, I DON'T want people to follow my lead and vote for you because I said so. I want them to think differently than players in M-I and M-II did. They should be looking for people who read strong town, not *maybe* Mafia.

Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.

My thoughts personally are that you've done a fine job appearing as town (apparently so have I, and that's fine if you suspect me for it too), but your actions have been distinctly UNHELPFUL in their pro-town fashion. I'm just not buying your innocence.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #496 on: June 02, 2012, 11:59:54 am »

Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #497 on: June 02, 2012, 12:03:57 pm »

I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Sorry for not posting more - was iphone posting previously - and that is just no fun.  I'm not necessarily suspicious of jotheonah on account of his essay, I was just noting that it was a strong reaction. 

Yes, G's post was long as well, but for all i know this is a Mafia super double-think play to have a big visible fight and then make up later where you'll both look clean.  I see decent reason for either of you to be suspicious.  Galzria for his excellent Mafia play in II and his redonculous post counts, and J for his very defensive responses to what looks like a relatively minor threat. 

There's reason to be suspicious of everyone - the vocal folks for being too vocal, the middle posters for trying to blend in, and the silent folks for trying to slide under the radar.  Erratic play is justified by the desire to not appear too pro-town and thus not get night killed etc.  Any of us here on a deep strategy forum are the types who really like to analyze our games, so I wouldn't expect any of us to come out and make a truly obvious play.

For now - I'm going to leave my vote because I don't have any stronger convictions.  I'll be dark for most of the day - hoping to play Mage Knight this afternoon - but I'll check in before bed.


I'm sticking with RobZ for now as I don't currently see a more compelling candidate, although I am
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #498 on: June 02, 2012, 12:09:15 pm »


Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.


I absolutely agree with that. But I think going the other extreme and trying to spot the towniest townie is just as bad. And you do too, because after you turned your attention toward me you started making real points against me that go beyond "he's so town" - the points I felt obliged to address.

I just think the safer, and more likely, play, especially for less experienced mafia, is to get involved as little as possible in the Day 1 scuffles. So I'm turning my eye toward the lurkers, as it were.

Unlike Galzria's strategy, which gambles killing one of our best town players against killing a mafia, mine merely gambles killing a quiet townsperson against killing a mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #499 on: June 02, 2012, 12:11:38 pm »

Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.

Don't worry Volt, I've said before that I don't actually hold absences against people. I just point them out to see what response I get. But it would never be part of a case against someone for me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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