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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 79913 times)

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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #325 on: May 31, 2012, 02:49:05 am »

Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #326 on: May 31, 2012, 03:12:45 am »

I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #327 on: May 31, 2012, 03:17:40 am »

I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.

Hey, I take issue with that! (And just for you Robz, ;))
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #328 on: May 31, 2012, 03:51:14 am »

Rereading the thread but didn't quite finish, going to bed now that it's almost 2am my time, will post tomorrow.
So this post has some substance, I can at least say that I think robz's classification of jtotheonah is off, rereading his posts he seems more "participant."

More to come tomorrow.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #329 on: May 31, 2012, 04:28:05 am »

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

You've seen nothing of me for some reasons.
a) If I have nothing useful to say, I don't say anything. You won't see any flavor-only posts from me.
b) That's the problem with the game. There are people who seem to play it 4 hours a day, and other who don't or can't or won't. Since my last post, it have been two nights for me and one day where I barely had enough time to read the x new pages, not to speak of the y pages to read now. It's not easy to get in on the discussion if the topic you want to address is three pages old.

This is not meant to defend me especially, but addresses all other players who are considered, let's say, mildly suspicious, because they have ominous things like "work" or post in three other games and play a few games Dominion without posting here. Even if some of that was meant to be ironic.

The original aim for players was to post "at least once every 48 hours", minimum, that is. I don't say that I will post every two days only, especially when things really get started, but please don't expect everyone else to post a big, insightful article several times a day either when there is nothing much to say. Only carefully reading and drawing conclusions without posting already takes more time than some may have expected.

Random lynch: They are NOT unhelpful. They are if every player votes randomly and someone gets lynched this way. But not if few players do so and the rest follows. Let's say 3 players vote randomly and 2 pick the same person. This still needs 5 players to non-randomly vote for this person, either providing reasons or not. At the end of the day, you see who voted whom and why, who has casted the final vote, and so on. This is helpful information on day 2.

And even no lynch is achieved, at least discussion starts about how unhelpful randomly voting is, which means randomly voting was helpful because it caused the discussion.
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def

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #330 on: May 31, 2012, 05:46:49 am »

No edit rule makes me look at stupid grammatical errors I didn't think I was capable of producing. :(
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #331 on: May 31, 2012, 08:07:42 am »

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #332 on: May 31, 2012, 09:14:57 am »

I was excited to see 2 new pages of posts, but it looks like the fire has settled down.

If I had to vote, it would be for either jotheonah or Galzria - as I assume any time we start hammering someone, the mafia is going to want to have a mix of guys in... some early, some late - as someone pointed out, it would be pretty bad for the votes to be 5,6,7.  I've already un-voted Morgrim, so that leaves jotheonah and Galzria.

And because I think that vague accusations of suspicion are meaningless without some real meat in the game.

VOTE: jotheonah - for being ok with killing a bad townie.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #333 on: May 31, 2012, 09:53:54 am »

CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #334 on: May 31, 2012, 09:54:46 am »

I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

Still, J, I appreciate your efforts to drive day 1 conversation. Robz may be right that amongst the "second game" players, we are less tentative and more willing to "get our hands dirty" (yes, a Mafia'ish quote) as it were. I think everybody will get to be this way, but I know I was afraid to talk at the start of MY first game, and now look at me! I won't shut up!

I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #335 on: May 31, 2012, 10:52:44 am »

CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?

I did see your unvote, and to be honest - like Galzria, my suspicions are not strong... however with 7 required and 0 on you currently, I don't view my vote on you as especially risky.

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

As we start to get up on a 3-4 votes on a single individual - then my mind changes, and votes are suddenly alot more dangerous - and thus suspicious.

So for now - I'm going to leave my vote.  If a bandwagon gets rolling and my suspicions are assuaged, then I'll unvote before things get out of hand.


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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #336 on: May 31, 2012, 11:37:01 am »

I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

I still don't quite understand how jumping OFF a bandwagon is a mafia move. If it was to avoid suspicion ... well, well done me because it clearly made me MORE suspicious, not less. Otherwise, once a mafia's vote goes down, especially if the wagon still has fuel, I don't expect them to move it.

I envisioned a nightmare scenario where I went to bed with my vote and a few others on O and woke up to find I'd helped lynch town. Pretty unlikely, I know, but I'm still happy not to have risked it.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #337 on: May 31, 2012, 12:17:50 pm »

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #338 on: May 31, 2012, 12:35:47 pm »

Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.

Sure. Here is your post #304:

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.

I'm not trying to blend in this game, I think it's just a side effect of so many people saying so much (much of it not important, until more recently). If I railroad over everything everybody says all of the time, I'm not going to learn anything. So I'm poking, prodding, gathering my suspicions. It may not look like the way I've played in other games--I do make conscious changes, and there are more people here, and I'm stretched a little thinner--and it's definitely in the ballpark of Participant behavior.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #339 on: May 31, 2012, 12:39:11 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - Morgrim7
jotheonah (1) - Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, jotheonah, Galzria
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #340 on: May 31, 2012, 12:41:48 pm »

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Insomniac, what time (and timezone) is our deadline on June 3?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #341 on: May 31, 2012, 12:54:52 pm »

I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
Galzaria, I completely agree with you. For some reason he almost seems to give immunity to those he's played with while acknowledging that you would all be very dangerous to have as mafia. Practically ignoring that possibility seems very strange. I'm also a bit baffled by the statement above, Robz. I do agree that a premature bandwagon filled with a bunch of nonchalant votes is dangerous, but votes are of course the backbone of the game, and they are not inappropriate when well-founded.

That statement and several others of yours recently appear to me to be your way (as mafia, if that's the case) to raise your banner against the leaders of the town. You are taking these normal functions like getting people to vote and "making bold claims" and labeling them as suspicious behavior. Like I said, this looks like a mafia way to ensnare the vocal town.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

Show me a post since things got more serious (~page 10 or so) where I've used humor to take anything back or used any emoticon at all. I post when I have something to say, I don't want to bog down those who can't get on the forum too often.

Vote: Robz888

Suspicious suspicious. Your statements all seem very off. You're giving me a real mafia vibe.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #342 on: May 31, 2012, 12:56:21 pm »

You would have needed 6, J. If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #343 on: May 31, 2012, 12:59:55 pm »

Also, to clarify, I somewhat agree with Robz when he says that suspicion without voting is preferable, but only when it works. And frankly, since it takes 7 to lynch, I'm not too concerned anymore about sending one or two votes someone's way. The baffling thing is that he is pinning voting as mafia behavior. Well...yeah, I mean sure they want more votes, but everyone's gotta vote, and you really can't say that everyone is suspicious when they vote based off of convictions.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #344 on: May 31, 2012, 01:09:49 pm »

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #345 on: May 31, 2012, 01:10:15 pm »

Above was supposed to be addressed to Frisk if you couldn't tell
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #346 on: May 31, 2012, 01:34:49 pm »

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.

No problem:  In short: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." - (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)

1. I was about to go to bed, and I didn't want to leave a vote hanging when he was at 3

2. DSell's post reminded me to go back to the game you didn't want to reference - but sorry - it's additional information about a player - so its fair game, just like seeing someones most recent activity in the forum at large vs. in game... it lets you draw additional conclusions. 

I voted for him without this information - to me Morgim looked like he was inflating his post count with drivel.  When he random voted, it just confirmed my suspicions.

Then DSell reminded me that Morgim was in the other game - and played somewhat erratically - including a self hammer as vanilla townie - which I do agree is a explicitly bad play - the only thing you know FOR SURE as a vanilla townie is that the game is worse off with you dead. This lead me to believe that Morgrim isn't necessarily a sophisticated player - at which point attribution of suspicious behavior had an easier explanation - Hanlon's Razor.

As other's have pointed out: O is also difficult to get a read on.  With him - I suspect that this is intentional - since even if he is town - the Mafia may not want to night kill him because he stirs up the pot so much.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #347 on: May 31, 2012, 01:56:56 pm »

Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote. 
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #348 on: May 31, 2012, 02:08:13 pm »

Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote.

Maybe it's a point born of experience, but I felt the same way reading that. Still, I've been on O my share, so had decided not to say anything if I was the only person who found this strange. What I find odd, is I'm SURE he knows this. He has indicated more than once that he has followed M-II. I can't believe he will have missed Morgrim's self-lynching as a Vanilla Townie. Hum.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #349 on: May 31, 2012, 02:10:46 pm »

No self-hammering, please. Never again.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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