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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 153827 times)

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1225 on: June 14, 2012, 12:28:14 am »

"analysis-silence"

erm... oops.. sorry about that one.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1226 on: June 14, 2012, 12:31:40 am »

O, reveal what?  Axxle still has info but we can still hold that back.  I still have my reason for targeting yuma but it's not too difficult to work out and probably won't help that much (but I'm holding it anyway).

The major issue is still that Axxle could very well die on us tonight, even if we do good today.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1227 on: June 14, 2012, 12:32:22 am »

Reveal Axxle's investigation..
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1228 on: June 14, 2012, 12:33:41 am »

I think it's still safe to hold onto it for a bit.

Writing up thoughts on yuma right now, in case we want it.  I encourage everyone to write up their analyses too... just maybe not post them yet.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1229 on: June 14, 2012, 12:34:45 am »

right. Jailkeeper, not doctor. Still think we want axxles investigation regardless.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1230 on: June 14, 2012, 12:37:43 am »

and no I'm not rushing because I'm mafia, I'm rushing because I'm excited that we might win after surviving MYLO and being in LYLO.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1231 on: June 14, 2012, 12:39:29 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1232 on: June 14, 2012, 12:41:08 am »

That's unfortunate.

So what's the next piece of information to reveal?  I think I want to hear yuma's reason for targeting Eevee before I say anything else.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1233 on: June 14, 2012, 12:41:31 am »

@O

Yeah I just have no choice. Hopefully we will be decided by then but if not, that's the only way my vote matters.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1234 on: June 14, 2012, 12:42:07 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1235 on: June 14, 2012, 12:42:55 am »


That leaves us with 5 people with probably 3 mafia, *before* axxle and ehalycon reveal

O (damn), Voltgloss, Yuma, Voltgloss, Eevee, Yuma


Derp. O, Volt, Yuma, Dsell, Eevee.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1236 on: June 14, 2012, 12:45:00 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Erm that's not quite true. If you got a vanilla result, it lends credence to a VT claim even if they might still be vanilla mafia/godfather (without BP vest).
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1237 on: June 14, 2012, 12:45:47 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Erm that's not quite true. If you got a vanilla result, it lends credence to a VT claim even if they might still be vanilla mafia/godfather (without BP vest).

Edit: Investigate-vanilla godfather makes no sense given our roles, so yea, only vanilla mafia.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1238 on: June 14, 2012, 12:46:06 am »

After all this I stand by my former mafia prediction of Yuma, volt, and eevee. In particular, eevee mentioned both of them as probable mafia, but listed me as more suspicious. Why not throw suspicion on fellow mafia as long as you say a townie is even moreso?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1239 on: June 14, 2012, 12:47:44 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.

FWIW my analysis isn't going to point any fingers.  I'm trying to look at it from all possibilities and then we can discuss the probability of each scenario.  My judgement has not been so good in the past so I think I will leave the final choice to Axxle.  Then if we lose, we can blame him. ;)

But again, I want to hear yuma's reasoning.


PPE: I think there has to be SOME sort of Mafia role, or else the rolecop power is even weaker.  :-\
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1240 on: June 14, 2012, 12:50:37 am »

My information doesn't catch scum in a lie unfortunately so I don't think it's useful to reveal right now

Ok. Then Ehalycon's soon-to-be-analysis I probably agree with if I'm right about where it lands.

FWIW my analysis isn't going to point any fingers.  I'm trying to look at it from all possibilities and then we can discuss the probability of each scenario.  My judgement has not been so good in the past so I think I will leave the final choice to Axxle.  Then if we lose, we can blame him. ;)

But again, I want to hear yuma's reasoning.


PPE: I think there has to be SOME sort of Mafia role, or else the rolecop power is even weaker.  :-\

Rolecop in a game with 1 other town PR, all vanilla mafia, and a vanilla-investigating SK... lolz.

Could be mafia rolecop, or mafia strongman (IE Godfather that people are accusing me of being).
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1241 on: June 14, 2012, 12:52:26 am »

I've quickly caught up.  So I'm clear, before we go any further we're waiting for (1) yuma to explain why he tried to kill Eevee, then (2) eHalcyon to explain why he jailed yuma, correct? 
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1242 on: June 14, 2012, 12:54:06 am »

Rolecop in a game with 1 other town PR, all vanilla mafia, and a vanilla-investigating SK... lolz.

Could be mafia rolecop, or mafia strongman (IE Godfather that people are accusing me of being).

Not people, just me.  And I only offered it up as a possibility.  If it turns out to be true, more cred for me. ;)



PPE: @Volt, that's what I'm waiting for.  My reasoning for jailing yuma is not likely to be a game-changer, but yuma's explanation... maybe...
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1243 on: June 14, 2012, 12:57:21 am »

Ok, big reveal that I wanted to keep to myself because I didn't want to bring attention to a moderating mistake:

def started out as a Cop on Day 1 but Insomniac accidentally PM'd me Rolecop information.  Because it completely exposed J for who he was, Insomniac and I decided to just let it stand because for all intents and purposes I could have been a Rolecop from the beginning anyway.  I don't think neither he nor I realized just how much worse a rolecop is for town.  I have no idea how that messes up the math for Mafia vs. Town.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1244 on: June 14, 2012, 12:58:00 am »

There are probably a lot more Vanilla dudes than you guys expect.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1245 on: June 14, 2012, 12:58:30 am »

I would definitely like to hear Yuma's reasoning before eHalc's.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1246 on: June 14, 2012, 01:00:43 am »

Ok, big reveal that I wanted to keep to myself because I didn't want to bring attention to a moderating mistake:

def started out as a Cop on Day 1 but Insomniac accidentally PM'd me Rolecop information.  Because it completely exposed J for who he was, Insomniac and I decided to just let it stand because for all intents and purposes I could have been a Rolecop from the beginning anyway.  I don't think neither he nor I realized just how much worse a rolecop is for town.  I have no idea how that messes up the math for Mafia vs. Town.

Ouch.  But how does that work?  Your rolecop read on jo was "no role".  Does Cop just get scum/not scum?  Wouldn't cop have gotten the same info?  Bah.

Not worth dwelling on, I guess.  :-\
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1247 on: June 14, 2012, 01:03:34 am »

Cop would get scum/no scum, so J would have returned "no scum" and I wouldn't have known he was lying.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1248 on: June 14, 2012, 01:22:53 am »

FWIW, I just checked the pages from jo's role claim until the lock.  yuma's only post:

Gaah.... I am back and exhausted after a long drive.

I skimmed over the soooo many new pages to read. I don't have much of substance to add at this point because 1. I am exhausted and 2. I only skimmed over the reading.

I am not even going to try to read everything and get a substantive post before the lock. I am tired. The only thing I have to say echos eHalcyon. I would like jotheonah to try to use his power, but the decision is his. I don't fully understand these roles and the possible repercussions for using them, but if jotheonah really is this power role I think he would understand best when to use it. But not using it doesn't help us trust you any more.

I'll see you all after the night.

So yuma's story checks out, I think?  Make of it what you will.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1249 on: June 14, 2012, 01:45:52 am »

Just read Axxle's reveal.  ...yeah, the original planned presence of a full-blown Cop would certainly justify there being so many VT's around. 

So, my very quick view:  Axxle is as closest to confirmed town as we're likely to get.  eHalc comes next (I do want to hear why he chose yuma to jail; I understand he's waiting to hear yuma's targeting reasons first).  Eevee and Dsell are the most suspicious, just by virtue of having claimed VT - and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they are BOTH mafia.  O is also claimed VT but less suspicious than Eevee/Dsell due to past behavior;  yuma is a question mark until we hear his reasoning for targeting Eevee.  This all just by process-of-elimination and the day's roleclaims.

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately. 
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