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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 153892 times)

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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1125 on: June 11, 2012, 11:17:30 am »

Do not worry, I won't kill myself. ;)
Well, because I am most likely about to die, I suppose I will make a final request. No, it is not lynch O. Be careful. You guys have only one more try now. Make it count!!!
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1126 on: June 11, 2012, 11:25:01 am »

So now Morgrim has responded to the points of suspicion raised against him.  I appreciate those responses - but they do not shake my conclusion that, more likely than not, he's mafia playing the crazy card. 

For the VT-count/balancing reasons put forth by myself and others, I have to assume one of O, Dsell, and Morgrim are mafia.  I don't think it's O, mainly because of the 50/50 offer during Twilight 1.  I am suspicious of Dsell for the reasons I gave previously; but am suspicious of Morgrim most of all.  Which means it's time to act on that.

VOTE: MORGRIM

 
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1127 on: June 11, 2012, 11:32:17 am »

Everybody's getting shaky in the town jumping at any sight of could be mafia. Morgrim appears to be back after he was missing on day 2, O calls out he's scum! The beggars start getting worked into a frenzy. O is quickly joined by eHalcyon, Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss. Together they keep his twigs from him until he becomes too famished and is lynched. Checking his scruffy pants you find his shelter card, the card clearly places him as a member of the shelter to which you are currently residing.

Morgrim 7 the vanilla townie is dead.

Night 3 begins

Day 4 begins in 48 hours, around June 13 at 8:00am PDT
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 11:48:11 am by Insomniac »
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1128 on: June 13, 2012, 10:31:02 am »

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

No one died last night

Day 4 has begun

Deadline June 20, 2012, 11:59 PDT

Vote Count 4-0

Not voting (7) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1129 on: June 13, 2012, 12:02:16 pm »

The fact that we are still alive, Hooray!, seems to imply that we have at least one power role, I am hoping we have another.

I need to go back over yesterday to see exactly what happened.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1130 on: June 13, 2012, 01:05:12 pm »

We are in lylo now, aren't we?  Barring more night luck.

It is possible the mafia opted not to target anyone, but this is unlikely.  At the very least, we can probably conclude that they have no special "1-shot extra kill" power.

We may have a doctor.  If so, we can confirm a townie, but that would put the doctor at risk.  We may have a jailkeeper.  If so, it doesn't really help us much because we won't be able to tell if the target was to be the killer or the victim.  We may have both, and that would confuse things further.

At this point, I am putting full trust in Axxle.  Without him as a town-aligned rolecop, I don't think we have a chance.  Axxle investigated *someone* last night.  How best to use that information?

I think he should stay silent for now.  let people say what they want to say, and see if it changes after he reveals what he knows.  It may result in Mafia bussing Mafia.  It may result in catching out false role claims.  It may result in nothing (if he got another "no role" result, or was jailed or something) but it could still be useful.  The Mafia knows things we don't.  It will be useful if someone on the town side knows things they don't.

Another question is... should roles claim at this point?  Probably not doctor unless absolutely necessary, but jailkeeper?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1131 on: June 13, 2012, 01:15:42 pm »

I'm looking back over the "number of VTs" analysis presented throughout Day 3, and it still looks solid to me.  That means our mistake was in picking the Mafia out of the claimed VTs.  We had O, Dsell, and Morgrim.  We picked Morgrim, but that was wrong.  That leaves O and Dsell.  I still don't think it's O for all of the reasons given to date.  That leaves Dsell.

If Axxle investigated Dsell and got a result different from VT, should he (Axxle) reveal that information?  Dsell has already claimed VT.  If Axxle investigated him and got a different result, that means Dsell was lying to us and is probably a Mafia power role. 
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1132 on: June 13, 2012, 01:19:19 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1133 on: June 13, 2012, 01:25:12 pm »

I'm looking back over the "number of VTs" analysis presented throughout Day 3, and it still looks solid to me.  That means our mistake was in picking the Mafia out of the claimed VTs.  We had O, Dsell, and Morgrim.  We picked Morgrim, but that was wrong.  That leaves O and Dsell.  I still don't think it's O for all of the reasons given to date.  That leaves Dsell.

If Axxle investigated Dsell and got a result different from VT, should he (Axxle) reveal that information?  Dsell has already claimed VT.  If Axxle investigated him and got a different result, that means Dsell was lying to us and is probably a Mafia power role.

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

If Dsell is a town power (and I don't think he is), it's possible that he would claim VT to ensure the real Mafia wouldn't go after him...

I do have a theory.  I have guesses as to what power role(s) we have and who they are.  I'm just not sure of the best way to use it... if I post it and accidentally support Mafia, they can roll with it.  If I am correct then that exposes town assets.  It's probably best for me personally to see how people act before I say anything, but it might not be best for the town. 

Probably the most effective thing would be to work it out through Axxle...?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1134 on: June 13, 2012, 01:26:36 pm »

For the record, I am largely suspicious of Eevee, yuma, and Voltgloss. They were all on that bandwagon, Eevee got Robz killed to squish that suspicion, yuma was on the Morgrim bandwagon on day 1 and day 3, and Volt has been generally very scummy, especially day 3. I think the fact that he hammered Morgrim is not insignificant.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1135 on: June 13, 2012, 01:26:57 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be?

Of course there was mafia on the Morgrim wagon.  The Morgrim wagon consisted of everyone in the town except you (Dsell) and Morgrim himself.  (Axxle wasn't in the final votecount but it certainly appeared he would have been, based on previous votes;  the only reason he wasn't was because I didn't see any reason to wait more than I'd already waited, given Morgrim's response.)

The question is, were ALL of the Mafia on the Morgrim wagon?  Or did one of them stay off when it was clear his vote wouldn't be needed, to try to build his credibility for the following day (if it came)?

It's a hard question to answer.  Which is why my suspicion of you isn't really dependent on it.  I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

Pre-post edit:  have not read eHal's and Dsell's latest posts yet.  Will do so now.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1136 on: June 13, 2012, 01:31:55 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.

I recognize this and I agree, but I do not think it clears you.  I stand by the Morgrim vote.  He is just a really, really odd player and I didn't realize just how odd he was.  I mean, O was kind of crazy on day 1 but that cleaned up after a while.

There has been Morgrim suspicion running since day 1, and his hammer on Galz was terrible.  Yes, there's a good chance that Mafia pushed the wagon yesterday, but I really doubt all the Mafia were part of it.  As Mafia, you could offer mild protest against lynching Morgrim and then use that as defense later.


Dsell, why are you suspicious of Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss but not me?  I partially agree with you, but I still find you suspicious.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1137 on: June 13, 2012, 01:35:02 pm »

I'm suspicious of you for the same reasons I was suspicious of Morgrim:  based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

We have an absolute minimum of 6 vanilla townies and probably a 7th. I don't know why you are putting so much stock in your assumptions when we are in a closed system. It does look like there is at least one protective role in addition to Axxle's role (unless the mafia pulled the impossibly stupid move of performing no night kill), so that's awesome. But Voltgloss, what makes you think that your assumption of the composition of the town is enough to lynch someone when we are at lylo? That seems gravely arrogant.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1138 on: June 13, 2012, 01:38:39 pm »

Huh, I staunchly defended not hastily lynching town. I must be mafia!

There was DEFINITELY mafia on that Morgrim wagon. How could there not be? By all accounts, it looked like the mafia were going to win after lynching town. I think we got really lucky and someone deserves a medal.

I recognize this and I agree, but I do not think it clears you.  I stand by the Morgrim vote.  He is just a really, really odd player and I didn't realize just how odd he was.  I mean, O was kind of crazy on day 1 but that cleaned up after a while.

There has been Morgrim suspicion running since day 1, and his hammer on Galz was terrible.  Yes, there's a good chance that Mafia pushed the wagon yesterday, but I really doubt all the Mafia were part of it.  As Mafia, you could offer mild protest against lynching Morgrim and then use that as defense later.


Dsell, why are you suspicious of Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss but not me?  I partially agree with you, but I still find you suspicious.

I actually was not totally against the morgrim wagon, he looked suspicious to me too. What I was strongly against was taking day 3 SO FAST. We had lots of time and we went for a hasty lynch, and it turned out to be against town.

And I am less suspicious of you because throughout the whole process I have gotten more of a town read on you. Let me be clear, I'm suspicious of everyone...but those three seem more likely mafia to me.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1139 on: June 13, 2012, 01:41:15 pm »

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

I assume it doesn't, or Axxle would have told us his alignment reads before.  Assuming he is indeed what he says he is. 

But Voltgloss, what makes you think that your assumption of the composition of the town is enough to lynch someone when we are at lylo? That seems gravely arrogant.

When did I say the bolded part?  I said I suspect you based on assumptions about town composition (assumptions held by others as well, not just me), and queried whether Axxle could shed some light on the question.  Please don't put words in my mouth.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1140 on: June 13, 2012, 01:45:07 pm »

based on the town/mafia power balance, I cannot believe that all three of you, O, and Morgrim are VTs. 

If you cannot believe us, you must think one of us is lying. And if that person's lying, then they must be mafia. I assume you want to lynch mafia?

I'm actually highly doubtful of that at this point.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1141 on: June 13, 2012, 01:45:18 pm »

I have some information that may help.  I'll wait a bit as people suggest though.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1142 on: June 13, 2012, 01:47:06 pm »

Axxle, if you found a role that is not doctor/jailkeeper/protector role, you've found mafia. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if you found a vanilla that is not Me or O, you've found mafia.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1143 on: June 13, 2012, 01:57:36 pm »

Are you implying that the rolecop read on power roles won't give alignment?  I was assuming it would.

I assume it doesn't, or Axxle would have told us his alignment reads before.  Assuming he is indeed what he says he is. 

Well first read was a hidden SK. Second read was vanilla. I thought vanillas would be have no revealed alignment but others would.

I think the town has doctor and jailkeeper. I picked up on tells. The risk is that it could be clever Mafia, but I think not.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1144 on: June 13, 2012, 02:06:06 pm »

They wouldn't say the alignments, but seriously, a Mafia Doctor belongs in Bastard Mafia II.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1145 on: June 13, 2012, 02:21:28 pm »

If my above assumptions are correct (and he didn't investigate Me or O), Axxle can guarantee that we lynch mafia today. If he got lucky enough, he could actually determine who all 3 mafia are. So I'm not sure that he actually needs to reveal what he found out about who. If he can figure out who a mafioso is from his investigation, it might be better if he just named that person. (If he found the town doctor/jailkeeper for example...he doesn't need to out this person.)
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1146 on: June 13, 2012, 02:25:12 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).

This could be an unsubtle hint/suggestion that Volt is the doctor. I don't have a lot of analysis on it since I'm waiting for Axxle, but...yeah. Take this post as you will.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1147 on: June 13, 2012, 02:29:40 pm »

Dsell, that was the doctor tell I picked up. I think it's earnest because it doesn't consider jailkeeper. Won't mention jailkeeper tell yet unless Axxle suggests it.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1148 on: June 13, 2012, 03:12:35 pm »

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).

This could be an unsubtle hint/suggestion that Volt is the doctor. I don't have a lot of analysis on it since I'm waiting for Axxle, but...yeah. Take this post as you will.

Why would you say this?  I'm having trouble seeing the motivation.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 3
« Reply #1149 on: June 13, 2012, 03:18:20 pm »

Erm... my read is that the doctor/jailkeeper is whoever the hell Axxle says he is, if AXXLE got that return.


If Axxle is lying:

1) Axxle randomly claims cop as mafia D2 and picks out the SK, nobody counterclaims
2) In MYLO Axxle picks out Morgrim as Vanilla, not some mafia role, in order to get us to lynch him
3) Town is pretty much screwed anyways

So yea, Axxle is confirmed town in my eyes.
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