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Author Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins!  (Read 95367 times)

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #650 on: May 30, 2012, 10:01:35 pm »

Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)

+1 for doing this on a mobile device, I wouldn't have the patience

It's terrible when you realize 8 lines up you put "Insomniac" instead of "Voltgloss", and well, you know you just can't leave it. ;)
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #651 on: May 31, 2012, 03:01:25 am »

Man. The compiling is exhausting. Alright, the much awaited for piece #4 of 6, the other suspicion leader, Robz:

Day 1 Posts:
#27, #32, #36, #77, #83, #86, #89, #91, #103, #104, #106, #107, #110, #112, #120, #126, #132, #142, #154, #155, #157, #160, #190, #193, #198, #209, #215, #217, #222, #225, #227, #231, #233

Posts of interest:
#83 - Suspects Jotheonah and Morgrim for No Lynch votes
#91 - Starts accusing M of bandwagon hopping
#106 - Finds bozz's vote on him odd, but not suspicious
#110 - Stays on M
#126 - Stays on M
#154 - Stays on M, agrees with Voltgloss, slightly suspects Galzria, suspects Tables
#190 - Will vote for M, would like to hear from Tables
#215 - Still suspects Tables, but not sure. Wants to place vote #4 on Morgrim to see who hammers, but will wait if requested
#217 - Votes Morgrim, but encourages others to retract if they aren't comfortable with M being at 4 votes.

Relevant Conclusions: Day 1 was pretty straight forward. He wasn't as guns blazing towards everybody as we thought he would be. Once he chose his target, he was relentless. Possible Mafia move to get a townie killed. Highly dangerous though putting himself so forward. Makes him look suspicious, which is not an ideal Mafia move. Hard to judge. More to go off of on day 1 than Insomniac though, for good or bad.

Day 2 Posts:
#254, #279, #282, #295, #302, #305, #307, #310, #319, #328, #329, #330, #370, #372, #384, #386, #392, #395, #400, #404, #431, #454, #456, #458, #460, #461, #508, #512, #520, #521, #522, #538

Posts of interest:
#254- Post-day 1 analysis. Suspects everyone to some degree except Kuildeous. States belief that there is 1 Mafia in bozzball/Insomniac set, and 1 in Galzria/Voltgloss/Jotheonah set. Believed G was most suspicious of 3 leaving day 1, but J's day 2 posts have raised flags
#295 - Reaffirms initial V-G suspicions, but still thinks J has been acting suspicious since day 2 started. He admits to provoking M in a few posts to try and get a response.
#302 - Claims he showed conviction (albeit wrongly) day 1, a town trait
#310 - Amidst growing clamor, admits he could be wrong about K's innocence
#319 - Restates how he perceived everyone's actions in regards to Morgrim
#328 - Takes issue with Insomniacs claims that he's unduly spreading suspicion everywhere
#330 - Claims Insomniacs statements regarding himself, Volt, and Galzria are all misleading our outright lies
#370 - Reevaluates K's actions to date. Now believes he could be Mafia
#384 - Reaffirms his growing suspicion of K. Notes he doesn't agree with G's reasons
#395 - Responds to Insomniacs comment about a second town role
#400 - Makes an interesting pairs list based on "friendliness". Notes that Insomniac hasn't really been anti-anyone, so could be anybodies partner
#431 - Admits to posting while drinking (**Obvious Mafia Tell! Lynch him! ;)**)
#456 - Big long post defending himself and rebutting Insomniacs attacks. Way too long to sum up in two lines here. Go read it yourselves!
#458 - States he is confident of a I-K pairing, but thinks if he were wrong on 1, it would be K.
#461 - Reaffirms I-K most likely, but could be I-J or I-anybody
#508 - Lists suspicion levels: I and K, high. J and G, medium. V, low. Bozz, none. Defends J's "I'll vote at X time" statement from I, but claims he has his own reasons to suspect J
#512 - States he'll cast his vote in a few hours
#520 - Votes K, but makes clear he would rather be voting I.
#522 - Unvotes at request of Kuildeous for more time
#538 - Votes K

Relevant Conclusions: Well, ok. There was a LOT here. It's hard to argue that there wasn't an easy line of thought process to follow. I can see how he got from day 2 dawn to day 2 twilight. There is logic, there is reason, and... It just feels off to me. I said I would play this round by feel more than logic, and he feels scummy coming off day 2. With that said, moving forward.

Day 3 Posts:
#550, #551, #566, #568, #570, #571, #573, #574, #599, #607, #610

Posts of interest:
#550 - Reiterates belief that I is Mafia. Admits with K innocent, J and G are now hugely suspicious. J just edges G in terms of possible guilt
#551 - Roleclaims doctor
#566 - Explains his actions as Doctor, defends claim
#568 - Starts math war
#599 - Decides on I's partner. Makes case for I-J pairing.
#607 - Continues to build case against J
#610 - Admits he can fire hostility towards accusers, but believes in his case.

Relevant Conclusions: So here we are once more. Coming out of Day 2, I would've told you Robz was more scummy than Insomniac. While I'm not sure how I feel about the Doctor claim, I've gotten an overall worse vibe from Insomniac today. This brings the two about equal, though I am SLIGHTLY leaning towards Insomniac.

This brings me to another point, and I'm going to jump the gun for a moment and give you a peak into part 6, pairs:
 There are only 3 real possibilities to me. I-J, I-V, and R-V. I think of those, I-V is least likely. That means if I vote Robz, I essentially vote Voltgloss as well. If I vote Insomniac, I essentially vote Jotheonah. So which PAIR do I think more likely? Both V and J have played a friendly game towards me. But I find J's courtship for trust day 2 to be more damning. I DON'T trust it now. I was wary then, and have to be moreso now. V just let things happen naturally, and I get less of a Mafia read there. So unless something drastic happens, I will be voting insomniac at the conclusion of my 6 post write-up.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #652 on: May 31, 2012, 10:51:42 am »

Since Galatia has expressed an interest in voting for me at the end of the 6 parter I feel like I should defend my day 3 actions because if I'm killed we lose. So well I have had a vote on me for coming up to 24 hours and almost every pairing has been on. That means im mafia or robz is. But we already knew that.

Day 3 out of the gates I vote robz. Well I was sure he was mafia on day 2. Nothing changed. Why wouldn't I replace my Vote?

later role claimed. This is information that has no benefit to the town. It's the same as role claiming town vanilla. Your more likely to be counterclaims but even if you are it's a 50/50 the town loses anyways and if your not then well mafia win

I've already voiced that I think v is his partner. His posts are just so damn helpful. And don't draw suspicion.

The bolded part of this post is super important. I'll post more later as I hate typin up posts on an iPhone
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #653 on: May 31, 2012, 10:58:38 am »

I should note (and should have at the end of last post, but was too tired), that I'm not going to finish part 6, then vote right away. I'll give at least 24 hours for discussion, and likely more.

So while I an interested in everything you have to say Insomniac (and everyone else), don't feel rushed. I'm not going to just slam the door when I finish.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #654 on: May 31, 2012, 11:04:17 am »

Also, as a point of interest, you'll all note that my Day 3 posts grabs only go up until I posted part 1. While new information is constantly released, it wouldn't be fair to those who cane early to compile new posts by those who came later. (I hope that made sense?)

To clarify, I had to draw a line in the sand somewhere, as we are constantly moving forward. I chose the spot of my first post. You'll have to evaluate everything after that on your own. ;)
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #655 on: May 31, 2012, 12:09:31 pm »

Since Galatia has expressed an interest in voting for me at the end of the 6 parter I feel like I should defend my day 3 actions because if I'm killed we lose. So well I have had a vote on me for coming up to 24 hours and almost every pairing has been on. That means im mafia or robz is. But we already knew that.

Day 3 out of the gates I vote robz. Well I was sure he was mafia on day 2. Nothing changed. Why wouldn't I replace my Vote?

later role claimed. This is information that has no benefit to the town. It's the same as role claiming town vanilla. Your more likely to be counterclaims but even if you are it's a 50/50 the town loses anyways and if your not then well mafia win

I've already voiced that I think v is his partner. His posts are just so damn helpful. And don't draw suspicion.

The bolded part of this post is super important. I'll post more later as I hate typin up posts on an iPhone

This information does in fact benefit the town, because if you believe I am Doctor--and I have provided reasons why you should--it narrows down the choices of who is mafia from 5 to 4. I have already explained why there was no downside to revealing:

I calculated that there was essentially no chance I get to use my doctor power to actually save someone, in any circumstance. As you note, the Mafia Rolecop exists. If the Rolecop never investigated anybody the town lynched, or anybody he and his mafia cohort killed, at present he would know everybody's role except one person. (5 people left: 2 mafia, 2 nights of investigation, 1 person remaining). There's a good chance of that, essentially the only thing to disrupt it that I can tell would be the mafia investigating Kuildeous or Bozzball on Night 1.

So, there's a good chance the mafia know I am doctor anyway. I think they probably would have killed me in the night if they knew (although you proposed an interesting reason why they would hold off), so my guess would be they learned it last night, I suppose. So it's no difference to them--either they discredit my claim and have me lynched (and we just lose), or they kill me in the night. This was all clear to them BEFORE I claimed Doctor. I don't get to Doctor anybody no matter what happens, in all overwhelming likelihood.

Also, even if they don't know I'm doctor, if I survive this lynch at all, I figured it would be because I had convinced the other townies to kill Insomniac, my runaway number 1 suspect. If we kill Insomniac, and he is mafia, and we go into the night phase, who is the other mafia going to kill? He is going to kill me, because if Insomniac is guilty, I am the most innocent looking person. So even if the mafia somehow had no knowledge of my Doctor status, I would still die tonight and the power would be totally meaningless.

So then, the question becomes: Why wouldn't I say I'm Doctor? I want to give the rest of the town members all the information I can, especially if it is information the mafia already have or probably didn't need to make their kill anyway.

I'm very sorry if the rest of the town thinks I have deprived us of a valuable tool. But I think you should see that there was really no chance I was going to get to use that tool to any effect, no matter whether everybody knows I'm doctor, the mafia know I'm doctor, or nobody knows I'm doctor.

Then of course Insomniac jumps on me with that immediate vote. I am thinking, "Uh, should I wait to say anything? Should I wait until there is another vote? What if 2 come at once? Well, it makes no difference, there's no benefit to keeping it a secret." So I said it.

My roleclaim was about clearing myself and giving the town more information, and my power was never going to actually protect anybody in the night. I thought it was the right thing to do, and I am still quite convinced of it. If it has made me look more suspicious, that's unfortunate, but... it was information that I possessed, that would help the town, and I had no reason to withhold it.

I think Insomniac is having a hard time understanding why I would do it, because he and I are playing differently. His modus operandi is, "What makes me more likely to survive?" Mine is, "What gives the town the best chance of winning?" I would reveal again in a heartbeat, there were no reasons to keep the info quiet and many reasons to share it.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #656 on: May 31, 2012, 12:27:06 pm »

My play style today is also what makes the town the most likely to win and on day 2 I expressed that as well. Today what makes the town win is not misslynching. Which as I'm town does put my survival higher than on day 2. If you are town your survival is more important today than the mafia.

I understand why you revealed I do. But the reason there is no benefi is we believe you or we don't. Revealing is also a good way to show that you are mafia as it puts your loving above the town which is what you just blamed me for doing. On day 2 you cared if you lived or died. I did not beyond the point that I enjoy the game. Go back and re read day 2 I didn't care so long as you followed.

Time to put my money back where my mouth is
Vote: Robz
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #657 on: May 31, 2012, 04:40:53 pm »

Final player compilation: Voltgloss:

Day 1 Posts:
#22, #50, #56, #61, #75, #87, #94, #101, #114, #124, #140, #163, #166, #172, #173, #175, #187, #195, #210, #216, #221, #237

Posts of interest:
#50 - Slightly suspicious of Galzria, Robz, and Bozzball
#56 - States belief that No Lynch is a bad idea
#61 - Points out Jotheonah's erratic behavior regarding playing "nice" being essentially bad for town, then voting No Lynch
#75 - Admits to playing aggressively, and trying to "stir-the-pot". States belief that this will help Town more than Mafia
#87 - *Not really an interesting post, but wondering now what tactics he was referring to, and could they help us now?*
#114 - Voices strong suspicion of Morgrim for the first time, lays out case, and proceeds to vote
#140 - Follows up on suspicions of Morgrim, agrees with G about concerns regarding Bozzball and Tables
#175 - Requests nobody (mainly Insomniac & Robz) put down vote #4 on Morgrim until Tables analysis comes in. Indicates he will retract vote if they do until such time as he feels having 4 votes is warranted.
#210 - Indicates he now feels that Morgrim getting 4 votes is warranted (based on Morgrim's post #206), so will not retract if Robz/Insomniac vote
#216 - Reaffirms where he stands in #210 by stating he has no problem with Robz casting vote #4
#237 -

Relevant Conclusions: I don't find too much to nitpick here. If I wanted to think like Robz, I suppose I could be suspicious that when I accused him of stirring the pot without good reason, he backed off and started focusing his accusations. But that isn't really how I play, and I DON'T think it's suspicious. Like Robz, he indicated a desire to wait for Tables' post, but then moved forward (moved his THINKING forward. His vote was already cast) before it arrived. But that's defended by Morgrim's many missteps. Can't say even looking back that I get a strong read either Mafia or Town. If I HAD to pick one though, Town. Moving forward:

Day 2 Posts:
#244, #248, #259, #283, #284, #289, #290, #292, #303, #304, #308, #309, #315, #321, #334, #336, #340, #347, #351, #356, #358, #362, #375, #381, #411, #419, #422, #437, #441, #464, #467, #468, #480, #484, #486, #525, #532

Posts of interest:
#248 - Responds to Insomniac's accusations (and vote) of him
#259 - Day 1 analysis post. Expands on defense of Insomniac's accusations, finds Insomniac's reasons for opening day 2 with a vote for him slightly scummy. Suspects Jotheonah for same reasons - "twisting the facts" about him. Defends himself from being a partner to Robz because of it's transparency, and therefor bad Mafia play. Doubts an I-J pair for the same reason. No thoughts on Robz or Galz yet.
#283 - Another self-defense post, mostly geared towards Jotheonah and Kuildeous. States a firmer growing suspicion of Jotheonah.
#289 - Another self-defense post (lots of these, but true for all 4 of us), this time from Galzria's comments. Distance's himself from Robz, but notes he's had little time to review his posts. Thinks bozzball is town
#304 - Calls on Robz to redefine his Day 1 approach to Morgrim for clarity (mainly, in what posts was Robz provoking Morgrim, and in what posts was Robz actually making a case)
#309 - Requests Robz to give thoughts on Kuildeous possibly being Mafia - Notes the only person Kuildeous hasn't really gone after is Robz, so there might be a Mafia pair there
#321 - Notes correction to statement K never suspected Robz. Points to post #253, where K lists Robz as #1 suspect. No longer thinks K-R pair likely
#358 - Gives a rundown (purely informational) of where everybody's suspicions and votes have tallied up to that point. Sets the standard for using First letter abbreviations (THANK YOU)
#362 - Acknowledges that he is now G's #2 suspect, finds G's case against Kuildeous interesting
#375 - Finds some things about G's case against Kuildeous odd, and seeks more answers. Questions (again) Robz's take on the situation
#437 - First full post in awhile - Believes G to be town, along with Bozz - Lists ordered pair suspicions, least likely to most likely: I-R, J-R, I-J, J-K, *R-K*, **I-K**. *- Listed most intriguing, and the one he was digging for the most information about. Claims it looked strong until Robz's post #384 (Robz's suspicions of K post, noted separate from G's suspicions). Still possible. **- Listed most likely pair, based somewhat on erratic play, and somewhat on play that jived too well together. States he will vote at a given time, regardless of vote count
#454 - Votes "as per my conditionals", Kuildeous
#525 - Unvotes as per Kuildeous request for time
#532 - Revotes Kuildeous

Relevant Conclusions: I admit I didn't see just HOW 'friendly' Volt was towards Robz. To be fair, he was equally as friendly towards me. Then again, he mostly played a "suspect where the suspicion comes from" game. I notice that trend in a lot of people, and wonder now if it should or shouldn't be raising flags. How quickly he drops his scuffle with J is perhaps a bit concerning, and he doesn't jump into the Kuildeous fray until it looks like the tide is turning that way. This is a polar opposite of how he played day 1 though, and may be because that isn't where his suspicions naturally were, so he wanted to make sure before opening his mouth. Definitely things here that concern me (more than I would have guessed). I think I've said that about everyone at this point though, and being down to 5 NOW, rightfully so. If I were to rank coming out of day 2, I would say (In order of scummy to innocent): R->I->V->J (V and J are about tied here) ... Things change day 3 though, so moving forward:

Day 3 Posts:
#556, #557, #563, #577, #580, #582, #584, #589, #591, #594, #602

Posts of interest:
#556 - States certainty that Insomniac is Mafia, and is pretty sure Galzria is his partner
#557 - Reaffirms his suspicion that Galz is Mafia #2, playing a "wait for 2nd vote" game on Robz instead of putting him up to 2 right away
#563 - States he cannot (through no lack of trying) come up with a reason Insomniac should be alive, except that he must be Mafia
#577 - Argues Robz has gotten the better of the R/I argument regarding Roleclaiming, and asks Galzria to supply the points Insomniac made that were good. Did not like G soliciting advice before weighing in himself
#602 - States he's going to re-evaluate pairs

Relevant Conclusions: Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 2! I've tried to be as clear as I can, and despite his many posts hammering away at me (and Insomniac), I think since dawn started I've been far more forward with my suspicions of Insomniac than Robz. I certainly don't think Robz is as innocent as Volt has acted like he is (since the start of the game really). I want to address one thing quickly here:

Also, FWIW, Galzria's soliciting my and J's opinions before weighing in with any substance at all does not make me any less suspicious of G.  The opposite, in fact.

And:

I also have a question for Robz.  Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list.  But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball.  Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does?  If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?

Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.

I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet.  That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.

Really? It's ok for you to do it, but not others? Sorry, but that really bothered me.

Regardless. I've stated over and over that I'm going to play this round less by logic, and more by feel. LOGICALLY, I would be all over Volt (and in turn, as I'll explain in my next post, Robz) for turning a blind eye towards everything I've said day 3 and intentionally misleading/misconstruing my posts. But logic has failed me on day 1, and on day 2. Instincts and feelings has led to a town win in Mafia-I. So I'm going to stand by my instincts (which Volt, have NOT waivered since the start of day 3), and plan on voting Insomniac.

Post 6 of 6 to come this afternoon/evening.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #658 on: May 31, 2012, 04:42:34 pm »

Relevant Conclusions: Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 2! I've tried to be as clear as I can, and despite his many posts hammering away at me (and Insomniac), I think since dawn started I've been far more forward with my suspicions of Insomniac than Robz. I certainly don't think Robz is as innocent as Volt has acted like he is (since the start of the game really). I want to address one thing quickly here:

Also, FWIW, Galzria's soliciting my and J's opinions before weighing in with any substance at all does not make me any less suspicious of G.  The opposite, in fact.

And:

I also have a question for Robz.  Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list.  But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball.  Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does?  If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?

Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.

I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet.  That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.

Really? It's ok for you to do it, but not others? Sorry, but that really bothered me.

Regardless. I've stated over and over that I'm going to play this round less by logic, and more by feel. LOGICALLY, I would be all over Volt (and in turn, as I'll explain in my next post, Robz) for turning a blind eye towards everything I've said day 3 and intentionally misleading/misconstruing my posts. But logic has failed me on day 1, and on day 2. Instincts and feelings has led to a town win in Mafia-I. So I'm going to stand by my instincts (which Volt, have NOT waivered since the start of day 3), and plan on voting Insomniac.

Post 6 of 6 to come this afternoon/evening.

That was supposed to read: "Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 3!" -- Day 3, not Day 2.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #659 on: May 31, 2012, 04:49:51 pm »

So given that at the end of your recap post on me you said that I was the most likely Insomniac teammate, a few questions.

1) Did your analysis of Volt change that? (I.E. if we lynch Insomniac and he comes up mafia, will you still target me or will you target Volt or will you have no idea?)
2) If Robz is the mafia, do you agree that Volt is the ONLY partner for him who makes any sense?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #660 on: May 31, 2012, 04:56:25 pm »

Vote Count 3-3

Insomniac (1) - Robz888
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Not Voting (4) - Voltgloss, Galzria, jotheonah

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #661 on: May 31, 2012, 04:57:58 pm »

So given that at the end of your recap post on me you said that I was the most likely Insomniac teammate, a few questions.

1) Did your analysis of Volt change that? (I.E. if we lynch Insomniac and he comes up mafia, will you still target me or will you target Volt or will you have no idea?)
2) If Robz is the mafia, do you agree that Volt is the ONLY partner for him who makes any sense?

To answer quickly, but without too much in depth (my fingers hurt!):

1) I would re-evaluate then of course. I would go in suspecting you, but I think you should've figured out by now that I'm anything BUT hasty, and don't mind putting forth effort. I'm never going to just open up a day with a vote.
2) I think there is SOME chance still of an I-R pair, and even SOME chance of a J-R pair. But neither seem anywhere near likely enough based on everybody's actions to warrant serious consideration above or before a possible R-V pair. R-V is very likely in my mind. I-J is just slightly moreso, and I can't vote 2 places at once. I have to make a decision. So I have to go with my instinct, and vote Insomniac.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #662 on: May 31, 2012, 05:13:00 pm »

Galzria, let me put something to you. You're between I-J and R-V. You think I-J is more likely, so you're going to vote I. Fine. BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right. R-V is the ONLY strong possibility if R turns out to be right. So hedging your bets between your pairs ... isn't "V" the best bet? At this point, voting Volt is functionally the same as voting Robz for you and me, but it has the added benefit of having a chance of being right EVEN IF I is the mafia out of the pair. 

I would join you in that vote for reasons I've explained above - he's the only partner who makes sense to me for either Robz or Insomniac. Whichever one, R or I, joins us for the third vote, we'll have a pretty good idea of who to kill tomorrow.

At this point I think it's VERY possible that R-V is the mafia and that we're going to lose if we lynch Insomniac. Being as you hold them as very likely, just know that voting for I, in that circumstance, would end the game with a town loss.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #663 on: May 31, 2012, 05:18:18 pm »

Galzria, let me put something to you. You're between I-J and R-V. You think I-J is more likely, so you're going to vote I. Fine. BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right. R-V is the ONLY strong possibility if R turns out to be right. So hedging your bets between your pairs ... isn't "V" the best bet? At this point, voting Volt is functionally the same as voting Robz for you and me, but it has the added benefit of having a chance of being right EVEN IF I is the mafia out of the pair. 

I would join you in that vote for reasons I've explained above - he's the only partner who makes sense to me for either Robz or Insomniac. Whichever one, R or I, joins us for the third vote, we'll have a pretty good idea of who to kill tomorrow.

At this point I think it's VERY possible that R-V is the mafia and that we're going to lose if we lynch Insomniac. Being as you hold them as very likely, just know that voting for I, in that circumstance, would end the game with a town loss.

Fair enough points. I'm not going to consider them in my next write-up, as I don't want to alter where I stand NOW (and have indicated in previous posts), but I also said I would be willing to look and listen to other people after I post part 6. I'm not going to just drop a vote on Insomniac. I'll wait for any and all discussion. I'm not promising here that I'll change my vote to Volt, and in fact, I don't even think it's likely that I will. But I WILL listen and consider before making my final decision.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #664 on: May 31, 2012, 05:20:44 pm »

I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #665 on: May 31, 2012, 05:54:57 pm »

BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right.

When, exactly, did Galzria do this?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #666 on: May 31, 2012, 05:59:59 pm »

I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).

It's a really bad plan if, as I suspect, J and Insomniac are the mafia. (It's also a bad idea if G and Insomniac or even G and J are the mafia, which I consider possible but far less likely pairings.)
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #667 on: May 31, 2012, 06:00:32 pm »

I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).

It's a really bad plan if, as I suspect, J and Insomniac are the mafia. (It's also a bad idea if G and Insomniac or even G and J are the mafia, which I consider possible but far less likely pairings.)

Or R anyone
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #668 on: May 31, 2012, 06:08:11 pm »

BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right.

When, exactly, did Galzria do this?

Well, he admitted in his analysis of you that you were more suspicious than he first thought. Then immediately above, he indicated that if Insomniac lynched mafia he would re-evaluate his partner.

Guys, I'm flattered that you think I'm competent enough at this game to play it as masterfully as the mafia have, with Insomniac as a partner. But it's really just not true. The two people alive who are saavy enough to pull this mafia game off are Robz and Volt. Maaybe Galzria. But think about everything you know about me and I and ask yourself if I'm that good.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #669 on: May 31, 2012, 06:26:26 pm »

Can I ask since I'm probably going to be lynched, if I were the mafia (I'm not) AND trying to stay alive why would I open day 3 with a vote? Just curious.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #670 on: May 31, 2012, 06:32:13 pm »

Can I ask since I'm probably going to be lynched, if I were the mafia (I'm not) AND trying to stay alive why would I open day 3 with a vote? Just curious.

Because you didn't think it would look all that suspicious given your opening vote on Voltgloss day 2, and because it's a continuation from your day 2 argument. You would only need one town to buy into that in order to win.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #671 on: May 31, 2012, 06:35:06 pm »

Remember, living isn't your goal (as Mafia or Town). Winning is. At this point, it's the same thing for town, but not for Mafia. Why put yourself in that position if you had something to lose? You wouldn't. But you did, so the conclusion is that you are the most likely Mafia.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #672 on: May 31, 2012, 06:46:29 pm »

Alright guys, sorry about this, but I have to coach. I'm about 75% done with the final instalment, and will get it up tonight, but not until late. I wanted to have it finished by now, but alas!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #673 on: May 31, 2012, 07:55:06 pm »

Living IS your goal as town, if you DIE town loses now. MAFIA can afford to lose one person and STILL win on day 4. Town has to not miss 2 days straight here. So yes living is my goal right now. Robz claiming is not because he can afford to be under the bus and as I said he knew I would target him and some other people were suspicious of him so Robz claimed to get people off his back which congratulations it worked.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« Reply #674 on: May 31, 2012, 10:09:32 pm »

jotheonah, I would like to hear your case for why you think a Voltgloss-Insomniac mafia pairing is at all likely. 
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