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[Voltgloss]

Voltgloss's argument seems to be deliberately ignoring the good-guy night roles and the chance they may have some useful impact. I am going to do some probabilistic analysis on each role, and come back to you with FACTS.

I am all for this, as trying to incorporate the good-guy night roles is beyond my admittedly meager mathematics abilities.  However, make sure you incorporate the bad-guy night role as well.

My main goal in disputing the "no lynch" suggestion was to change the two(?) votes for "no lynch" (I wasn't sure if Morgrim's counted as a vote).  I was very concerned about the two Mafia folks (assuming they are not jotheonah/Morgrim) bandwagoning to "no lynch," with the help of one other unsuspecting townie, and thus shortcutting to Night 1 without us having a chance to fruitfully discuss things during Day 1.

Now that jotheonah and Morgrim's votes have changed, we have time to really dig into whether "no lynch" makes sense.  I still maintain it doesn't, but am open to my mind being changed by a solid maths-based argument.

As for Galzria's vote against me for "stirring everything up"... well, yes, I am stirring things up, quite deliberately.  I'm doing so in order to bait the Mafia into making mistakes.  If everything is "nice" and complacent, the Mafia don't have any reason to put themselves out there.  And it's when they put themselves out there that they make mistakes.

I also dispute this:

The more confusion, suspicion, and accusations that float around the more they live in safety.

...wouldn't it be the opposite, at least as to suspicion and accusations?  The more those float around, the more likely they'll be directed towards Mafia, giving us an opportunity to glean information from their defenses that could confirm those suspicions?

[bozzball]

The way I figure, if there are M mafiosi, 1 sane cop and O others, the sane cop
will be successful if he chooses a mafioso, and the mafioso don't choose him. In
which case, the probability of him being successful is MO/(O+1)(O+M) - M times more
likely than the doctor.

Now if we lynch no-one, the sane cop will be successful with probability
 12/56 = 0.214
If we lynch a random person, with probability 1/9, we will lynch the sane cop
and he will not be successful tonight.

With probability 2/9, we lynch a mafioso, and decrease the probability of the
sane cop being successful to 6/49 = 0.122

Finally, with probability 6/9, we lynch a random, and the probability of the
sane cop being successful becomes 10/42 = 0.238.

Overall, if we lynch a random person, the sane cop will be successful with probability
(2/9 * 6/49) + (6/9 * 10/42) = 82/441 = 0.1859.

The sane cop is less likely to be successful if we random-lynch by the small probability
of 25/882. Also, there's only a probability of 1/2 that we HAVE a sane cop.

Also a big chunk of that reduction comes from the case that we lynch a mafioso.

Thus, ignore the sane cop.

[Robz888]

Hey guys, wow! Activity! I will respond in a couple minutes.

[Galzria]

Voltglass:
I don't believe that to be the case. If everyone is suspicious of everyone, it becomes a lot harder to make a concrete case, and much easier to deflect. Still, as I'm new to this, my instinct may be wrong.

I still can't bring myself to unvote yet, because as I noted and you admitted, you are awfully aggressive, and that just doesn't sit right with me. Still, I an open to more talk/chatter/analysis.

[Morgrim7]

Let see some votes here.
I think my vote is staying where it is for now, but Voltgloss, Robz888, and jotheonah are still suspects.

[bozzball]

Can see no purpose in this content. Vote: Robz888

Hey guys, wow! Activity! I will respond in a couple minutes.

[Galzria]

Morgrim,, just to clarify, I'm your vote at the moment 'cause I said you were nice?  Well, I stand by reasonings, if not that particular declaration!

[Tables]

bozzball: Your analysis, while accurate in the mathematical sense (generally the best kind of sense, but... maybe not here), is a little flawed in terms of the actual game.

Firstly is understanding the actual role interactions, which is kinda important. The doctor is extremely valuable, but only if there's someone good to protect. This could be a cleared townie, a cop claim, or otherwise someone very likely to be killed in absense of a doctor. In terms of random protection, doctors don't do much, occasionally saving someone, which kinda helps a little but less than you first think (as in this setup, it would probably lead to us wanting to no lynch pretty soon after - but the doctor can be more confident the person he saved was town. Not certain as there's a jailkeeper and the mafia might choose to no kill (very rare but possible)). The Jailkeeper I'm less familiar with, but he's probably a lot better than the Doctor - he can prevent a kill by choosing one of TWO people, which is double odds, and also might stop the mafia rolecop. However, he could also stop the doctor/cop, and unlike the doctor, he gets pretty much no information from his jailing.

The cop, on the other hand, doesn't need to hit a mafioso to be successful. Finding out someone is town can be helpful as well - less so, but still helpful. A cop can easily clear a player (or two) before his death, if he thinks he's going to be lynched, and that can be a big help. The doc/Jailkeeper should protect that player, and then the town has someone to unquestionably trust the next day. If that player was the doc/Jailkeeper, or there isn't one, that kinda sucks (bear in mind the mafia rolecop, which means the mafia pretty much knows everyone's roles by day 3), but otherwise, the cop is always useful if they find out information.

Rules question: Are roles revealed on death? If no, is alignment revealed on death? I presume yes to both, but it'd be useful to know.

[Robz888]

Oh my goodness, craziness taking place.

On comments that I am playing differently because I didn't come out of the gate swinging as hard as in the other game:
That's a fair observation. I'm actually glad to whoever made it. We have to be vigilant for suspicious things like that. I don't know if my explanation will satisfy you, but I did do a couple posts at the beginning to try to stir the pot, though not quite as strongly as last game... and then I went to sleep. And I just woke up. I am on Eastern Time. Generally available between noon and 5:00 PM, gone until midnight, back online until 3:00 AM, and up around noon. I'm a journalist, so that's my schedule.

On the no lynch vote:
Not a good idea, I don't think. If we were going to do this randomly, maybe it would make sense. But this isn't a random kill--whoever the mafia are, they are already giving themselves away with suspicious dialogue, or remaining suspiciously silent. We absolutely WILL NOT LYNCH THE SANE COP or whatever power roles the townies have. If a townie with a power role is about to be lynched they should come out and admit their role, and given that we believe them, we should change our votes. This is not a good situation, because the mafia learn who is who, but it's preferable to outright killing this person ourselves.

On those who proposed the no lynch vote:
You are probably the most suspicious people in my eyes. I am playing catchup here, but it looks like it was jotheonah and morgrim. I see that jotheonah proposed it, and morgrim quickly jumped on it, which is I think the more suspicious thing to do. So Morgrim would be my top choice right now, but it's far, far too early to be casting actual votes. We have plenty of time people, to listen to what everybody says, make an informed choice, and get a mafia this round. But yes, I suspect jotheonah and morgrim very much. And I am going to have to go over the posts again to see if I have missed anything.

[Axxle]

Rules question: Are roles revealed on death? If no, is alignment revealed on death? I presume yes to both, but it'd be useful to know.

Both the Alignment and Role will be revealed.


Vote Count 1-1

No Lynch (1) - jotheonah
Jotheonah (1) - Tables,
Galzria (1) - Morgrim7
Voltglass (1) - Galzria
Robz888 (1) - bozzball

Not Voting (4) - Robz888, Insomniac, Voltgloss, Kuildeous


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: Monday, May 28, 2012 6pm PDT

(please correct me if I'm wrong)

[bozzball]

Who here has played this game before?

How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?

It just seems incredibly random.

[Robz888]

We learn alignment and role upon death? Interesting. Didn't know that.

I have played mafia quite a bit, but never online. In the games I play, we must kill someone every round. Yeah, we didn't play with the official rules, I guess.

I still think it doesn't make sense not to perform a kill. I mean, we are going to have the exact same dilemma next round. Our duty is to evaluate what people say and discover the mafia through their errors.

[Voltgloss]

Who here has played this game before?

How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?

It just seems incredibly random.

I've played before in RL, not board-based.

In the last RL game I played, we lynched a mafioso in round 1 and the second mafioso in round 2.  Not sure I should get into the specifics of how that was accomplished because I'd love to see the mafia in this game make the same mistakes as the mafia made in that game. 

[Galzria]

Who here has played this game before?

How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?

It just seems incredibly random.

My instinct says you're right. But snowball arguments help. Early on, there is going to be little to go on. If the first kill is revealed as innocent, the cases (small though they may be) instantly become stronger against the nonlynched suspicious people. It forces more defense, by them, and the Mafia, knowing they only need 2 extra votes will be more aggressive trying to push their advantage.

[Robz888]

I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.

On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.

True. I think it would be better if there was No Lynch, as  it would just be some random name. Lets wait until we find more info. about eachother.

Let's not wait, let's find out more info about each other NOW, while we are all still alive, so we can get a mafia before they get one of us.

[Morgrim7]

Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball

[Robz888]

Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball

I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.

[Morgrim7]

Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball

I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.

The reason I unvoted so quickly is because f all the posts stating why no lynching is a bad idea.

[Galzria]

I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...

What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.

[Voltgloss]

Would like to hear from the quiet ones:  Insomniac and Kuildeous.  Insomniac in particular was last on about an hour ago but said nothing - a bit odd, as the discussion was flying thick and fast then. 

Kuildeous was last on early this morning (EDT) and so apparently hasn't had a chance to review most of the day's discussion. 

Incidentally, I am EDT and usually on and periodically checking/posting during daylight hours (like now).  Also typically get on to check in the evening (around 10 pm - 12 am or so).  My usual "silent times" are around the 5 pm - 10 pm timeframe and the wee morning hours.

I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.

Robz888, Morgrim's unvote was cancelling his vote for Galzria.  Not his vote for "no lynch."  He already unvoted "no lynch" (by voting for Galzria instead) before you logged in for the day.

I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...

What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.

That struck me as odd too.  That said, I'd like to see the rest of bozzball's mathematical analysis before weighing in more specifically.

[Galzria]

Robz888:

I'm back in the Morgrim is nice column - for completely arbitrary reasons (6/8 I'm right, right?) - for now...

[Morgrim7]

Robz888:

I'm back in the Morgrim is nice column - for completely arbitrary reasons (6/8 I'm right, right?) - for now...

What, now we have the Morgrim is nice and Morgrim is mafia columns? Wow.

[bozzball]

I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...

What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.

It just seemed suspicious to me. Why not wait to post when you are caught up?

[Galzria]

Well, if "nice" means "safe" means "townie" then I suppose so.

[Tables]

Who here has played this game before?

How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?

It just seems incredibly random.

I haven't played this exact setup before, but it's very rare to actually lynch a mafioso on the first day. HOWEVER the reason is that, when the town correctly identifies a mafioso, which happens reasonably often, he'll fakeclaim to avoid early death (town is generally unwilling to lynch a power role claim on day 1). This usually only saves him for a day or two, and it definitely helps the town to force a fakeclaim from mafia, but it does mean mafia themselves rarely get lynched day 1.

Robz: There's no 'proper' ruleset to mafia. Games range from the very serious to the very silly, with a huge variety of rules used in between. This game definitely rates highly on the serious scale (I'm used to very silly games - ones where everyone has a power role, things like two mafias aren't uncommon, 15-25 players (I've played one game with 35 players), and generally night actions determine the game).

Right, back to analysing the game. It's possible that Insomniac and Kuildeous didn't check this subforum when they were on, rather than avoiding posting at all (I've done it once already, but now the game's heating up, I'll probably be here often enough...). I'm actually not very suspicious of Bozzball. His story of being new checks out, and he definitely sounds like the new town type. So he's either a naturally good mafioso, or he's town. I'm leaning slightly towards the second. Still suspicious of Jotheon, but he hasn't been online, so that might not change until I see where he goes from here.