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Author Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins!  (Read 94830 times)

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #50 on: May 15, 2012, 08:33:02 am »

Interesting discussion so far.  Seems innocuous enough... what with all the Dominion references and in-jokes... but I've seen a few things that raise my eyebrow, and my suspicions.

Galzria's comment that he "holds no suspicions" of Morgrim because he is "too nice to be mafia" strikes me as odd.  At this early stage, we WANT to be casting suspicions on each other to draw out information.  Publicly declaring another to be non-scum based on something outside the confines of Mafia (being a "fellow solo-challenge hoster") strikes me as slightly counterproductive at best, and a shady mafia move at worst.  On the other hand, Galzria did invite more chatter from the rest of the town... but in a second post right after his first.  Perhaps realizing he needed to cover himself?  Would like to hear Galzria's and others' thoughts.

Robz888 posted in Mafia I that he likes to come out of the gate with "guns blazing," i.e., throwing accusations around to get people to react/respond.  Which I suppose is why he posted that he "accuse(s) all of [us]" and asked us to defend ourselves.  But... if you accuse everyone, that's not exactly motivating any single person to respond, now is it?  Far less productive than accusing a single person or a couple of people... which is exactly what Robz888 did in Mafia I.  Why is he being LESS accusatory here? 

bozzball offered his RL occupation as a reason why he "tend(s) not to say very useful stuff."  Now, perhaps that's just an innocent joke, on the whole Mathematician's Answer idea.  ("Is it raining outside, or has it cleared up?" "Yes.")  But on the other hand, perhaps that's a pretextual excuse given as an attempt to make us accept bozzball's not being very helpful, when in fact he has an ulterior motive to be unhelpful?

That's where my suspicions currently lie.  How's everyone else feel?
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bozzball

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #51 on: May 15, 2012, 08:47:12 am »

I feel it's too early to have any real idea. Do people normally have a good feel for these things before the first night-period? (First game of mafia, so apologies if I'm doing the Mafia equivalent of Village Idiot here)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #52 on: May 15, 2012, 09:12:45 am »

I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.

On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #53 on: May 15, 2012, 09:18:48 am »

Re: Voltgloss's suggestions.

Galzria - not convinced. I think it's just a symptom of what I said before bout us being too new and therefore too nice.

Robz888 Yeah, that IS a suspicious disconnect and I'd like to her a defense of it. Maybe he just doesn't want to get kicked out early of BOTH his games so he's hedging his bets?

I'm inclined to think bozzball = actual newbie (as am I, no worries) rather than mafia master playing dumb.  But playing dumb about how the game is played is a pretty nice cover for things like being quiet and doing suspicious things. I think we should be watching carefully for him to do something out of character that either proves him (A) not a newbie or (B) not a mathematician.

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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #54 on: May 15, 2012, 09:21:50 am »

I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.

On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.
True. I think it would be better if there was No Lynch, as  it would just be some random name. Lets wait until we find more info. about eachother. 
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #55 on: May 15, 2012, 09:42:16 am »

On the note of more info.

It occurs to me that bozzball revealed his profession (?) to us, which gives us the beginnings of an inkling about his character. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt for us all to share that piece of info? I'm the opposite of a numbers person, all about words. Journalism is my field. I admire mathy folks but my aptitude for it is ... not good.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #56 on: May 15, 2012, 10:02:06 am »

The "no lynch" idea bothers me quite a bit.  Because as near as I can tell, a vote for "no lynch" is, in effect (if not necessarily by its proponents' design), a vote for the Mafia.

There are 9 of us right now, 2 of whom are Mafia.  What happens if we lynch randomly?  This:
- Day 1:  we lynch someone.  2/9 chance of hitting Mafia.  Say we miss.
- Night 1:  the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 2:  7 of us left, 2 are Mafia.  We lynch someone, with 2/7 success rate.  Say we miss again.
- Night 2:  the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 3:  5 of us left, 2 are Mafia.  We absolutely must lynch a Mafia person this round, or we lose.  We have a 2/5 chance of randomly succeeding at that.

Now, what happens if we go "no lynch" this round?
- Day 1:  nothing happens.
- Night 1:  the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 2:  8 of us left, 2 are Mafia.  We lynch someone, with 2/8 success rate.  Say we miss.
- Night 2:  the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 3:  6 of us left, 2 are Mafia.  We lynch someone, with 2/6 success rate.  And we need to guess right.  Why?  Because if we miss...
- Night 3:  ...the Mafia kills someone...
- Day 4:  ...and there are 4 of us left, 2 Mafia, and the Mafia has won because there is no way to lynch them by majority vote anymore.

The upshot:  if we lynch someone today, we get (at minimum) three chances to lynch Mafia before we lose the game.  If we DON'T lynch someone today, we get only TWO chances to strike Mafia, and with less odds of success.

Now, math is not my field either, so I am interested to hear bozzball's (and other math-oriented folks') thoughts on this.  But from this (admittedly cursory) analysis, it seems to me that a "no lynch" vote this day does nothing but hurt the town.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #57 on: May 15, 2012, 10:11:40 am »

But that analysis is based on the vote always being (essentially) random. I don't know if that bears out. Consider: The first night vote has a worse than 2/9 chance of hitting Mafia, because the 2 Mafia won't vote for themselves or each other. In fact, they can communicate, so they may well vote for the same person. So a non-mafia town member will get at least 2 votes in the first round lynching. That means the 7 of us who aren't in the mafia have an above-average chance of lynching an innocent.

From Day 2 onward, we have a better than 2/#of survivors chance of hitting the mafia because our votes are informed by actual events and information.

So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #58 on: May 15, 2012, 10:15:05 am »

Voltgloss's point makes sense, but he is now a suspect. Voltgloss, my hats off to you (if you are not Mafia) for sacrificing your innocence for giving us good info.

On the other hand, we are being much too quiet here. I accuse Galzria, for calling me nice, and (athough that may be true 8).) that is suspicious. To add to the suspicion, he has mysteriously disappeared since. 
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #59 on: May 15, 2012, 10:16:35 am »

Don't get me wrong, I like a good torch-and-pitchfork mob as much as the next red-blooded American. Just not until I have some inkling of which way to point it.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #60 on: May 15, 2012, 10:19:15 am »

I like jotheonah's point, but you, sir, could very well be mafia yourself... so could I...
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #61 on: May 15, 2012, 10:21:21 am »

So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.

I understand our chances of randomly hitting Mafia on Day 1 are low.  My point is that, by failing to lynch anyone this day, we reduce our chances of hitting Mafia on Days 2 and 3.

Compare:

Lynch on Day 1 (variant "A"):
- Day 1A.  2 Mafia out of 9 players.
- Day 2A.  2 Mafia out of 7 players.
- Day 3A.  2 Mafia out of 5 players.

No lynch on Day 1 (variant "B"):
- Day 1B.  No lynch.
- Day 2B.  2 Mafia out of 8 players.
- Day 3B.  2 Mafia out of 6 players.

Our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2B.  Similarly, our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3B.

Morgrim, I don't see myself as sacrificing innocence at all, or maybe I'm not understanding your remark correctly?  I'm trying to stimulate discussion and action.  jotheonah himself posted that us being nice is essentially handing the win to the mafia.  Curiously though, he then followed up with that by proposing "no lynch" - the epitome of niceness, and (as I'm asserting) also the epitome of handing the win to the Mafia.

I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info":  What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it? 
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #62 on: May 15, 2012, 10:28:59 am »

So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.

I understand our chances of randomly hitting Mafia on Day 1 are low.  My point is that, by failing to lynch anyone this day, we reduce our chances of hitting Mafia on Days 2 and 3.

Compare:

Lynch on Day 1 (variant "A"):
- Day 1A.  2 Mafia out of 9 players.
- Day 2A.  2 Mafia out of 7 players.
- Day 3A.  2 Mafia out of 5 players.

No lynch on Day 1 (variant "B"):
- Day 1B.  No lynch.
- Day 2B.  2 Mafia out of 8 players.
- Day 3B.  2 Mafia out of 6 players.

Our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2B.  Similarly, our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3B.

Morgrim, I don't see myself as sacrificing innocence at all, or maybe I'm not understanding your remark correctly?  I'm trying to stimulate discussion and action.  jotheonah himself posted that us being nice is essentially handing the win to the mafia.  Curiously though, he then followed up with that by proposing "no lynch" - the epitome of niceness, and (as I'm asserting) also the epitome of handing the win to the Mafia.

I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info":  What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?
Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Tables

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #63 on: May 15, 2012, 10:31:42 am »

This sudden talk of no lynching is too abrubt and a bad move. If we no lynch now, we might as well no lynch tomorrow, as we'll be at what's called 'mislynch or lose' later anyway (that is, we can no lynch and survive, but if we mislynch, we lose - the best move in that situation is generally to no lynch, to eliminate one more potential suspect). And then we lose our best weapon for two whole days, and let the mafia whittle our numbers, potentially hitting our power role(s) in the process. Especially when you consider, we have 13 1/2 more days for discussion and finding information, 2 out of the necessary 5 votes to hammer on the last minute desperate option is... a little worrisome.

So now, I have two main suspects. Morgrim and Jothenah. Jotheonah being the main one, because he suggested it in the first place.

So for the time being I'm placing my vote square on Joth's head. Vote: Jotheonah
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #64 on: May 15, 2012, 10:35:45 am »

Voltgloss, you make a compelling case. On the other hand, rooting for a kill without naming a suspect is a move that makes sense for the mafia - at this point they don't much care who we kill as long as it's not them, and they want to stay out of the spotlight as the one making all the accusations. But that's not how you've played up until now. You were quick enough to start pointing fingers.

Of course, another potential mafia tactic would be to set yourself up as the group's leader by being very vocal, thus giving yourself a position of safety in rounds to come.

Let's look back at Kildeous. The red flag he raises for me is that he's posting silly things, but not really engaging in the "who to kill" game, which is a nice way to be present without drawing any vote-worthy attention to yourself. Similar to bozzball's newbie feint, if it is a feint, which, as I said before, I kind of doubt, but who knows.

If I were Mafia, I would be doing something like that right now. After all, the Mafia doesn't care who we lynch as long as it's not them. So either staying out of the way and letting us make a kill without seeming to get involved is Aces for them.

Still suspicious of Robz888 until he says something else.
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Tables

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #65 on: May 15, 2012, 10:38:46 am »

Oh, and just to clarify: As no lynching today means we might as well no lynch on another day, that basically means the mafia gets a kill when we had a lynch: The mafia gets a chance to take out who they feel is the most useful person to the town, instead of the town getting a chance to take out the person they feel is most likely to be mafia. No lynching is most certainly a mafia-sided move, in this game.

The extra night phase for our power role(s) is of little consolation: The doctor and Jailkeeper don't get us information, just potentially stop a kill (Which might tell them something, but nothing certain - even the doc doesn't know if there was no kill because he saved the victim, or if there was also a JK). A cop does, but there's only a 50% chance of there even being one, AND he's more likely to die, AND the mafia get information just as quickly as he does (quicker, perhaps, as they have a smaller pool of targets).

So in short, we absolutely do not want to no lynch today, unless we get to the 13th day and still have no reasonably suspicions. And that's pretty unlikely.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #66 on: May 15, 2012, 10:40:48 am »

Finally (really should work out everything I want to say before posting), I did a quick sleuth on google, it doesn't look like anyone called Bozzball has ever played in a mafia game before. Making a new username for a forum game of mafia is slightly extreme, especially as he didn't know if he would be mafia or not (and if he's not, why bother at all?)
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #67 on: May 15, 2012, 10:41:06 am »

Of course, Tables' comment now makes me look like I'm about-facing to keep from being lynched, so it's probably time for me to defend myself.

The no lynch suggestion was hardly sudden. I was mainly articulating what the group already seemed to be saying - and I also felt information could be gained from who reacted strongly against it, given that a random lynch is definitely what the mafia wants. I hate to turn it back around and accuse Tables, but he and Voltgloss are the two who reacted the most vitriolically to the idea of no kill, and while Voltgloss's reaction was reasoned and calm, I'll let Tables' tone speak for itself.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #68 on: May 15, 2012, 10:49:24 am »

And now I have to go, won't be back until probably after midnight EST. Hopefully I won't miss voting time.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #69 on: May 15, 2012, 10:51:32 am »

Because so many points have been made on why no lynch is a bad idea, I feel compelled to vote.  My suspects are
Robz888
Galzria
But for.right now, my Vote: Galzria
Also, it would be nice to know why Tables suspects me...
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #70 on: May 15, 2012, 10:52:36 am »

Mafia is a game of accusations and information, and the two go hand in hand. I tend to be very aggressive when it comes to accusations, and doing what the town should be doing: Using their votes as a weapon against the people who they're most suspicious of. OMGUSing me for agressively rebuking an anti-town strategy... well, you should probably put the shovel away for a bit.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #71 on: May 15, 2012, 10:53:16 am »

Morgrim: For agreeing with NL as a good option.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #72 on: May 15, 2012, 11:24:32 am »

Wow. I go and try to get a *little* sleep after such a disturbing event here, and look what I've missed. I'll try my best to respond in order, but I post from a phone at the moment, which handles text fields poorly:

Morgrim:
Last time I call anybody nice!  :P I'm as new as many others, and have watched how quickly Mafia I has spiraled into accusatory madness.

The Mafia, as pointed out, want as many kills as they can get early, and as quickly as possible. The more confusion, suspicion, and accusations that float around the more they live in safety. So yes, I was trying to harbor feelings of "niceness".  Remember, a point-and-lynch system helps the Mafia 7/9 of the time. Given our position of power in numbers over them, I suggest we use it. Make them seem desperate to stir suspicion.

With that, I agree that nolynch is BAD. Nothing like twiddling your thumbs waiting to be killed. Maybe there's some strategy to it... But I can't see it.

Brief history of me: I went to school for Mathematics, before changing to Political Science, Journalism, then Television and Film. As I've already made a fool of myself in a much earlier thread re: Mathematics, you can get an idea for just how long it's been... (and why I changed...? ;P). I love sports (baseball mainly), and regularly compete in triathlons. I should just write up a mini bio in the intros board...

With that, Vote Voltglass because he is acting quite like I expect Mafia to, stirring everything up from everybody. I'm not saying that more information is bad (quite contrary), but let the Mafia make the mistakes. We own majority. We've got time.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

bozzball

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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #73 on: May 15, 2012, 11:35:09 am »

Voltgloss's argument seems to be deliberately ignoring the good-guy night roles and the chance they may have some useful impact. I am going to do some probabilistic analysis on each role, and come back to you with FACTS.
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Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 1)
« Reply #74 on: May 15, 2012, 11:42:48 am »

The way I figure, if there are M mafiosi, 1 doctor and O others, then the only
way the doctor can be successful is if he and the mafiosi choose the same other.
There are O others, and the doctor has a probability of 1/(O+M) of choosing any
particular other, and the mafiosi have a probability of 1/(O+1) of choosing any
particular other.

Thus the probability of the doctor being successful (supposing both choose
uniformly at random) is O/(O+1)(O+M).

Now if we lynch no-one, the doctor will be successful with probability
 6/56 = 0.107
If we lynch a random person, with probability 1/9, we will lynch the doctor
and he will not be successful tonight.

With probability 2/9, we lynch a mafioso, and increase the probability of the
doctor being successful to 6/49 = 0.122

Finally, with probability 6/9, we lynch a random, and the probability of the
doctor being successful becomes 5/42 = 0.119.

Overall, if we lynch a random person, the doctor will be successful with probability
(2/9 * 6/49) + (6/9 * 5/42) = 47/441 = 0.1065.

The doctor is less likely to be successful if we random-lynch by the tiny probability
of 1/1764. Also, there's only a probability of 1/2 that we HAVE a doctor.

Thus, ignore the doctor.
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