Not voting is not suspicious at this stage.
I disagree. I would think that a true member of the Mafia would be interested in withholding his vote until he can condemn an innocent person. This does not mean that I hold Robz and Insomniac in suspicion based on their lack of votes. I just don't think there's any behavior in here that completely allays suspicion.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
So, if I go with the idea that Mafia players would wait to place a vote, then the fact that Mogrim doesn't have a majority yet casts him in the role of Mafia. Paradoxically, Mogrim voted for bozzball early, so if I vote for Mogrim on that assumption, then I have to recognize that my assumption is faulty, since Mogrim contradicted it.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
There's a reason I don't like to reveal my thought process. To be fair, whoever is in the Mafia probably already thought of these things already. I read a little in the first game and saw the claim that a talking town is more likely to be efficient in lynching. I still kind of question that, but I guess I'll leave my experiments at home and speak more freely. I still don't like saying what I think where the Mafia players can hear. Just because they are more logical gamers doesn't mean they'll think of everything.
After all that, I'm still not convinced in a particular direction.
So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
I don't dispute that there is more information I question the amount of useful information. In fact, I'd say that a lot of these posts are actually harmful to the town, which should be expected when you have two people working in tandem to undermine us.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
To be fair, following your line of thought was exactly why I changed to Morgrim from Bozzball at that time. While I was (and am still) suspicious of Bozzball, I am much more so of Morgrim. I didn't think it was fair to set Bozzball up to fall, and my initial vote was the first cast in that direction. I'm still willing to go back if he does anything more incriminating, but I'm not ready to put him in a position to be lynched quite yet.
I wonder though. What would the Mafia gain by dividing us? If Bozzball has 2, and Morgrim has 2 (with me at the moment being the Votecast to 3 on either), would it be fair to hazard a guess that there is NOT a Mafia on both sides right now? There are 4 no casts, although 2 lean Morgrim....
Let me clarify, since I'm circling myself and getting confused:
IF, either Morgrim or Bozzball are Mafia, that leaves 1 more.
IF, Morgrim and Bozzball lead in votes, their partner is likely to cast a vote for the other person.
GIVEN, Morgrim has cast for Bozzball shortly after I did, and then the "ball" started rolling, he picked up to 3.
GIVEN, Bozzball has cast randomly, at Robz888.
THEN, to my mind, Morgrim is more likely to be suspect, yes?
A caveat to that: Bozzball could be sitting in the wings waiting to switch his vote. His partner would most likely be someone who has cast their vote already, not someone waiting. Otherwise, they could bump Morgrim up to 5 now (although they may be waiting for Tables to try and withhold suspicion).
Given all that (And I do apologize if I was unclear above. If so, just ask and I'll try my best to straighten out my thoughts), I think my vote on Morgrim right now will stand. But I am VERY much still concerned that Bozzball might have it goin' on.
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Topic: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters GAME OVER Mafia Wins! (Read 95726 times)