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[Galzria]

Sorry, I often post from my phone, and it auto-corrects to what it knows. Putting Voltgloss into dictionary now.

[Robz888]

I'm going to be gone for a couple hours, and probably won't be able to post regularly until after midnight (EST).

My primary suspect is Morgrim, for the reasons laid out by Voltgloss and myself. I don't have good cause to suspect anyone else, although I've found bozzball's behavior strange. Not necessarily suspicious, but strange.

[Morgrim7]

I'm going to be gone for a couple hours, and probably won't be able to post regularly until after midnight (EST).

My primary suspect is Morgrim, for the reasons laid out by Voltgloss and myself. I don't have good cause to suspect anyone else, although I've found bozzball's behavior strange. Not necessarily suspicious, but strange.

Wait, didn't I just rebut Voltgloss's points? sheesh, all you do is make one typo and people jump on you.

[Galzria]

Here's my analysis of Morgrim's "no comment" towards Voltgloss:

I understand that he doesn't want to unnecessarily get people in trouble, however, I think it's fair to claim that everyone here would declare: TOWNIE, if asked their alignment. Therefore simply saying that reveals nothing, and in no way implicates Voltgloss as a good detective. So, a "no comment" to me reads two ways (both a slip up): I'm Mafia, or I'm a power-role.

If there are two power roles, lynching him gives us a 50% success rate to kill Mafia, 50% to really hurt ourselves. If there is only 1 power role however... 66% of the time, lynching him his Mafia, 33% of the time REALLY hurts the town.

However, if we opt for safety and don't lynch him, he's a high target if he is not Mafia, and very likely Mafia if he survives the night, so should be lynched day 2.

Given the odds, do we make a move now, or wait. If we make the move and he IS a power role, he'll be forced to reveal, but at least we'll have more information on todays vote. (Helps Mafia too, but I'm thinking Morgrim is a dead man walking at this point).

Any thoughts? Things I missed? Different opinions on the read? Speak up!

[jotheonah]

Hi team!

Couple of things: It looks like we have an entire week to make a decision. I thought the timetable was much quicker than that so I have been playing a little more harriedly than I otherwise would have. So, first thing's first, Unvote.

For those of you still suspicious of me, I totally understand that. I'm not a veteran mafia player, and I think we can all agree that the intuitive thing to believe would be that pointing a gun randomly in a room full of 7 good guys and 2 bad guys is a bad way to kill the bad guys, compared to not firing the gun at all.  Which was my rationale behind my no lynch vote, which was a tentative vote anyway.  So it was not a mafia master plan double feint to get you all to play suboptimally.

I still think Tables was quick to turn folly into foul play and I think he's a rabble rouser. The way that his post changed the tone from discussion to accusation is a big red flag for me. But I'm not accusing him per se. I'll be on again around midnight.

[jotheonah]

Re: Morgrim. It seems to me he folded a little too quickly under pressure for a real power role player. If he were legit, wouldn't he wait until he was on the brink of elimination to give the mafia that info? His play has been erratic, and it's suspicious. Still, I agree with whoever advocated a Day 2 kill. Why risk crippling ourselves?

I would say, if we must make a kill, let's kill Kildeous. Here's my thought: People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent. It's also a pretty saavy way for a mafioso who's not confident about his skills to wait out the first round. I could say the same thing about Insomniac, but all the evidence is he hasn't been around, whereas Kildeous has apparently been lurking a lot, posting a little. So, as the week goes on, I'll be looking forward to hearing more from him to allay my suspicions.

[Kuildeous]

Hi team!

Couple of things: It looks like we have an entire week to make a decision. I thought the timetable was much quicker than that so I have been playing a little more harriedly than I otherwise would have.

Does the time make a difference for the first day? I'm not sure that we'll learn more in a week without some other stimuli.

I'm speaking about getting the game moving fairly quickly, but I understand if people have less time to engage.

[Robz888]

I support taking our time, but not taking a full week. If it were up to me, I would like to have the vote decided in the next two days. But I understand that not everyone is not able to post so often--which is why the moderator set the time limit--so it's okay whatever way it happens.

[Galzria]

I'm also good taking as long as we feel we need, as long as the conversation is (relatively) flowing and we're going somewhere with it. Sitting and waiting for no reason only helps the Mafia who win via a "timeout" on the deadline.

[Galzria]

However, as I pointed out in another thread, I've moved into the forums and live here now, so any down cycles in posting make me go all Conspiracy Theory (good 'ol movie, btw).

[Galzria]

For the record however, we've seen a real lack in substance recently from:

Insomniac, Bozzball, Tables

And light substance from:

Mogrim, Voltgloss, Robz888

Kuildeous and Joetheoneh, both made recent contributions, although Kuildeous did ignore Joetheoneh's accusation. Hmm.

[Morgrim7]

I am for taking our time... just not too long. Now, dont get all over me for my recent posts trying to speed things up, I wanted to have peoples opinion. One problem: What are we hoping to accomplish by taking our time? Have we not talked six pages worth already?

[Kuildeous]

People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent.

This is true if quality = quantity. Speaking the most does not deflect guilt.

I also have not had much time to post things today. My schedule varies; some days I have more time, and others I don't. I have nothing to prevent me from posting in 48 hours, at least (until Origins).

[Galzria]

People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent.

This is true if quality = quantity. Speaking the most does not deflect guilt.

I also have not had much time to post things today. My schedule varies; some days I have more time, and others I don't. I have nothing to prevent me from posting in 48 hours, at least (until Origins).

Fair enough, I just wanted to hear you say it. ;P

Here's where I stand with all members:

Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.
Insomniac: Hasn't posted much. Gave a very valid reason. Not suspicious. Would like to hear more.
Robz888: I'm not really buying his accusations on Morgrim, especially about bandwagoning. However, I get the feeling this is how he plays. No judgment, yet.
Tables: Too quiet. When he speaks he says a lot, but nothing that seems helpful. I tend to feel more confused after reading his posts. Maybe that's just me? Suspicious.
Voltgloss: I voted for him early, then unvoted. Still on the fence, could go either way. Leaning towards townie.
Bozzball: Very suspicious. I don't think he took anytime to defend himself over his quick accusations of Robz888, then he's gone MIA with no reason (unlike most of you).
Morgrim: Something is going on here, but I don't want to push it too aggressively yet. If he's a goodguy, his slip may have been innocent, and if he's Mafia, it didn't make sense at all. Don't jump the shark here.
Joetheoneh: Not enough posts to get a great feel for. Leaning townie. Withholding judgment.

VOTE: BOZZBALL Right now, I'm fairly confidant with that.

[Galzria]

Confident* even. Silly autocorrect. 

[Voltgloss]

Various thoughts.

Morgrim's responses have me more convinced he is Mafia, not less.  Why?

- Morgrim has still not responded to Robz888 asking him to defend his bandwagoning on "no lynch."  Morgrim has explained why he jumped off that bandwagon, but never explained why he jumped on it so quickly.  Now, I don't find jumping on that bandwagon to be a clear scumtell - but his continued failure to address Robz's question has me concerned.

- Morgrim did not respond regarding his pushing people to vote, rather than to voice suspicions.  His last post says not to get all over him for trying to speed things up because he "wanted to have peoples' opinion."  Which is perfectly fine, and what several of us (including myself) have been trying to do.  But... you can solicit peoples' opinion without pushing them to vote.

- The whole "withholding information" thing.  Let's look again at how Morgrim initially responded to my query:

I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info":  What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?

Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto

And then how Morgrim replied when I noted this as suspicious: 

-Well, look at my post. I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not. I witheld the info. to protect you from being killed by the mafia, as they would have seen you as a useful source of info. and would want to kill you of if you were not mafia already and they had no better target.

The statement "I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not" is inscrutable to me.  I really don't know what it means.  It seems to be suggesting Morgrim is, or was, lying?  Whatever it means, it is vague and obscure, and therefore suspicious.

Furthermore, the professed concern for me - raised in Morgrim's explanation - does not actually come through in Morgrim's original reply.  His original reply, that the answer could be a "dangerous piece of info," suggests rather that he is a power role - Cop, specifically.  But now he's disavowed that in favor of some alternate explanation.  This isn't ringing true for me.

Now, all this said, I understand the point raised by Galzria, and echoed by jotheonah, that Morgrim is likely either Mafia or a power role - and therefore, maybe we would do better to lynch Morgrim on the second day.  However, the more I think about this, the less I think delaying benefits us.  Why?

- If Morgrim is Mafia, then of course we want to lynch him now, rather than later.

- If Morgrim is NOT Mafia, but we go into Day 2 thinking "if Morgrim survives the night we lynch him in the day," then the Mafia has no reason to target him.  So his surviving doesn't actually give us any further information about Morgrim we don't already have today.  (Unless a Cop investigates him, I guess - but might we be better off having a Cop investigate someone who is more difficult to read?)

If Morgrim is a power role, and we move towards lynching him, then he'll be forced to reveal.  But as Galzria said, that's not necessarily the worst result.  Heck, if Morgrim reveals as Cop, and if we have a Doctor or Jailer in the mix (66% chance if Morgrim is a Cop), perhaps the Mafia will wind up wasting their nighttime kill chance taking the "obvious" route of targeting Morgrim.

End result:  my vote for Morgrim stays unchanged.

Caveat:  Galzria's concerns re: Bozzball and Tables resonate with me as well.  I still think Morgrim is more suspicious, which is why my vote stays where it is (at least for now); but I would very much like to hear what Bozzball and Tables have to say.  Especially Tables better explaining his last comment about Robz.

[Morgrim7]

Various thoughts.

Morgrim's responses have me more convinced he is Mafia, not less.  Why?

- Morgrim has still not responded to Robz888 asking him to defend his bandwagoning on "no lynch."  Morgrim has explained why he jumped off that bandwagon, but never explained why he jumped on it so quickly.  Now, I don't find jumping on that bandwagon to be a clear scumtell - but his continued failure to address Robz's question has me concerned.

- Morgrim did not respond regarding his pushing people to vote, rather than to voice suspicions.  His last post says not to get all over him for trying to speed things up because he "wanted to have peoples' opinion."  Which is perfectly fine, and what several of us (including myself) have been trying to do.  But... you can solicit peoples' opinion without pushing them to vote.

- The whole "withholding information" thing.  Let's look again at how Morgrim initially responded to my query:

I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info":  What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?

Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto

And then how Morgrim replied when I noted this as suspicious: 

-Well, look at my post. I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not. I witheld the info. to protect you from being killed by the mafia, as they would have seen you as a useful source of info. and would want to kill you of if you were not mafia already and they had no better target.

The statement "I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not" is inscrutable to me.  I really don't know what it means.  It seems to be suggesting Morgrim is, or was, lying?  Whatever it means, it is vague and obscure, and therefore suspicious.

Furthermore, the professed concern for me - raised in Morgrim's explanation - does not actually come through in Morgrim's original reply.  His original reply, that the answer could be a "dangerous piece of info," suggests rather that he is a power role - Cop, specifically.  But now he's disavowed that in favor of some alternate explanation.  This isn't ringing true for me.

Now, all this said, I understand the point raised by Galzria, and echoed by jotheonah, that Morgrim is likely either Mafia or a power role - and therefore, maybe we would do better to lynch Morgrim on the second day.  However, the more I think about this, the less I think delaying benefits us.  Why?

- If Morgrim is Mafia, then of course we want to lynch him now, rather than later.

- If Morgrim is NOT Mafia, but we go into Day 2 thinking "if Morgrim survives the night we lynch him in the day," then the Mafia has no reason to target him.  So his surviving doesn't actually give us any further information about Morgrim we don't already have today.  (Unless a Cop investigates him, I guess - but might we be better off having a Cop investigate someone who is more difficult to read?)

If Morgrim is a power role, and we move towards lynching him, then he'll be forced to reveal.  But as Galzria said, that's not necessarily the worst result.  Heck, if Morgrim reveals as Cop, and if we have a Doctor or Jailer in the mix (66% chance if Morgrim is a Cop), perhaps the Mafia will wind up wasting their nighttime kill chance taking the "obvious" route of targeting Morgrim.

End result:  my vote for Morgrim stays unchanged.

Caveat:  Galzria's concerns re: Bozzball and Tables resonate with me as well.  I still think Morgrim is more suspicious, which is why my vote stays where it is (at least for now); but I would very much like to hear what Bozzball and Tables have to say.  Especially Tables better explaining his last comment about Robz.

- I will say this agsin and no more. WHEN I VOTED, IT LOOKED LIKE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME.
- I urged people to vote only because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION.
- I wante to protect you from getting killed by mafia, because you were an obvious source of goo info. Now, it does not matter any more.

[Robz888]

- I will say this agsin and no more. WHEN I VOTED, IT LOOKED LIKE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME.
- I urged people to vote only because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION.
- I wante to protect you from getting killed by mafia, because you were an obvious source of goo info. Now, it does not matter any more.

This is a mystifying response to me. "I will say this again and no more." I mean, if it's unclear or un-persuasive to us, why not say it more? Also, look, I know it sucks to have every little thing you say picked apart. Alas, that's what we have to do. And all CAPS responses look incriminating to me. They look overly defensive. They look like a mafia grasping at straws and getting angry that it's looking increasingly likely that he goes first. If you are innocent, we need you to explain why with calm, reasoned, lengthy posts, not "because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION."

Also, the wanting to protect Voltgloss sentence doesn't make sense to me. He's a good source of info, sure. I agree with just about everything he has posted lately. And if you thing he should be protected, and can do so, the way to do that is discreetly in the night. Putting it in the convo looked really, really weird.

[Morgrim7]

All right.
Cool, calm, collected posts you say? I will oblige.

First off, I see it pointless to defend myself further, but better safe than sorry.
Well, the reason I reacted so harshly is because I feel that I have tried to make this point many times before. At the time that Voltgloss was talking about not lynching, I looked over his point and said I thought it was a good idea. I see now that I acted rashly. It was definitely not a good idea, so I voted against it. End of story.

The reason why I used CAPS in the second reply is the same as above. I feel as though I have tried to get this point across before. The reason why I asked people to vote, is because I wanted their opinion, thus rising more discussion. In my situation at that time, I now see that again I made the wrong move. I should have kept my big mouth shut ( a hard thing to do )and let you guys keep talking.

Is there something wrong with protecting Voltgloss?
The reason I said it does not matter anymore, is because he is accusing me of being mafia, and defending someone who is attacking me is useless.

FWIW, Vote: bozzball.

[Kuildeous]

Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.

Not really sure what more I can say. I, of course, will deny being guilty, whether I'm a Townie or Mafia, so that answer wouldn't sway anyone at all.

I am starting to form an opinion, but it's not rock solid yet.

[Galzria]

Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.

Not really sure what more I can say. I, of course, will deny being guilty, whether I'm a Townie or Mafia, so that answer wouldn't sway anyone at all.

I am starting to form an opinion, but it's not rock solid yet.

Ooh, mysterious. Nothin good to say huh?

*Pulls out Robz888's guide to Mafia*

KUILDEOUS, ARE YOU MAFIA?!? ARE YOU???

[Kuildeous]

Nothin good to say huh?

Nothing substantial, no.

*Pulls out Robz888's guide to Mafia*

KUILDEOUS, ARE YOU MAFIA?!? ARE YOU???

*pulls out Robz888's guide to answering questions*

I have to say "no" to that, but you already know that's going to be my answer no matter what.

[Galzria]

*grumble*

Damn all encompassing guide. 

[Axxle]

Vote Count 1-2

bozzball (2) - Galzria, Morgrim7
Jotheonah (1) - Tables
Robz888 (1) - bozzball
Morgrim7 (1) - Voltgloss

Not Voting (4) - Robz888, Insomniac, Kuildeous, jotheonah


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: Monday, May 28, 2012 6pm PDT

[jotheonah]

Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.

So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.

Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation. 

Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.

Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim

OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.