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Author Topic: Mafia [split from In defense of Monopoly]  (Read 17406 times)

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popsofctown

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Mafia [split from In defense of Monopoly]
« on: May 08, 2012, 12:30:12 am »
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Mafia is really not that strategic but is widely loved.
As a prominent member of the biggest forum mafia community 3 years running, I feel obligated to object to this.  Face to face mafia either degenerates into reading people's faces rather easily, or feeling like nothing you can do can help your chances of lynching correctly and that there are people waiting to play another game.  Forum mafia allows games to run on longterm timetables without inconveniencing dead people, and without overly easy face reads.  Playing face to face mafia and concluding it has no strategy is a bit like learning what moves are legal in chess, playing 3 games of blitz chess, and concluding there isn't much strategy.

Success in mafia is determined by a combination of psychological analyses and luck.  This also might warp your perception of its strategy, but unfairly so.  A Texas Hold 'Em player has to combine luck with psychological predictions, if your sample size is a single hand an expert player loses money as often as a clueless player.  In the same way, it takes several games to identify whether any particular strategy is working in mafia, or whether any particular player is good or bad.

A very large proportion of our community also plays isotropic Dominion, so we aren't a group of people who love a barrel of laughs and a silly time.

EDIT:  I see others discussed poker.  Knowing odds is trivial and everything between an average player and an expert player knows them all about equally well.  There could be an inch of different in players' knowledge of these probabilities but it shouldn't be up for discussion of the "strategy" involved in poker, it's all psychological, picking up on others' habits.
Players who are good at poker win consistently with a large number of hands, so it is strategic.  You may not like psychological strategy,  but there's evidence that strategy is there.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2012, 09:47:36 am by theory »
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Fabian

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2012, 04:32:15 am »
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pops,

That would be POG I assume?
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theory

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2012, 11:05:23 am »
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Mafia is really not that strategic but is widely loved.
As a prominent member of the biggest forum mafia community 3 years running, I feel obligated to object to this.  Face to face mafia either degenerates into reading people's faces rather easily, or feeling like nothing you can do can help your chances of lynching correctly and that there are people waiting to play another game.  Forum mafia allows games to run on longterm timetables without inconveniencing dead people, and without overly easy face reads.  Playing face to face mafia and concluding it has no strategy is a bit like learning what moves are legal in chess, playing 3 games of blitz chess, and concluding there isn't much strategy.
Can you elaborate?  I don't doubt you, but I'm interested in learning more about Mafia strategy.
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Robz888

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2012, 12:16:42 pm »
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Mafia is really not that strategic but is widely loved.
As a prominent member of the biggest forum mafia community 3 years running, I feel obligated to object to this.  Face to face mafia either degenerates into reading people's faces rather easily, or feeling like nothing you can do can help your chances of lynching correctly and that there are people waiting to play another game.  Forum mafia allows games to run on longterm timetables without inconveniencing dead people, and without overly easy face reads.  Playing face to face mafia and concluding it has no strategy is a bit like learning what moves are legal in chess, playing 3 games of blitz chess, and concluding there isn't much strategy.
Can you elaborate?  I don't doubt you, but I'm interested in learning more about Mafia strategy.

Oh good Lord do I love Mafia. I can play it online??? Where???? Help! I would love to play online. I really, really loved mafia, but you need, like, 10 friends to play it, and I spend all my time playing Dominion instead of making friends.

But anyway, yeah, Mafia is super strategic, even IRL. First of all, it's a game of memorization. You have to remember everything that people said, who they defended, because it becomes relevant in later rounds. It's been show, for instance, that if people can take notes while they play, they beat the Mafia much more consistently.
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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2012, 03:48:38 pm »
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Also, the purple monopoly sucks.  ;D

I only mentioned the Purples/Browns as an example that the cheapest hotel still has a higher rent than having all four railroads. They're still terrible, but I was just illustrating that railroads will never get you more than $200 on a hit, while any single hotel will snag you more, even the pathetic Purples/Browns. Also, I misspoke. I omitted some details, which could lead a reader to assume that you can build up all the Purples/Browns $310. While it does cost $310 to build up Mediterranean, you need to build up Baltic, as well. Both of these would cost $760 to fully develop. Sorry about the confusion.

And you're right that those other properties cost more to develop fully than the railroads, but the rewards are far greater. For example, the light blues cost $1070 to fully build. A single hit gets you $550 or $600. Two hits will pay for the investment. For the railroads, you need four hits just to break even (unless you buy the railroads for cheap, which is certainly viable). The oranges start to pay off after 3 hits. What's more important than the number of hits to recoup your losses is how much more those hits will earn you. After that third time of an orange getting hit, each subsequent hit gives you about a grand. Each railroad hit? Still only $200.

Railroads aren't terrible, but they're slow. When money bounces back and forth between hotels, it'll be your own hotels' rent that protect you from someone else's rent. Railroads won't be able to keep up, not even—I suspect—with the uniform distribution and more spots.

Although, I'll gladly buy one or two to use in bartering. If I can entice someone into giving me a color monopoly, I'll gladly give him a railroad monopoly and see if I can't squeeze a little something extra out of him. I won't badmouth the railroads during an actual game.

Railroads and Hotel Light Blues bring in similar profit/turn, I believe. Railroads are much, much more likely to be landed on.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2012, 04:00:58 pm »
+1

pops,

That would be POG I assume?
I play on Mafiascum.net.  I don't know what POG is, but the lack of M in the acronym leads me to suspect it is one of many sites that plays some forum mafia but is mainly about something else.  Mafiascum.net is the largest site fully dedicated to forum mafia; EpicMafia is a noteworthy site that focuses on chatroom-mafia, a different, faster format; I wouldn't be surprised if they outnumber us since that is probably easier to get into.  Those are the only two I know of.

Mafia is really not that strategic but is widely loved.
As a prominent member of the biggest forum mafia community 3 years running, I feel obligated to object to this.  Face to face mafia either degenerates into reading people's faces rather easily, or feeling like nothing you can do can help your chances of lynching correctly and that there are people waiting to play another game.  Forum mafia allows games to run on longterm timetables without inconveniencing dead people, and without overly easy face reads.  Playing face to face mafia and concluding it has no strategy is a bit like learning what moves are legal in chess, playing 3 games of blitz chess, and concluding there isn't much strategy.
Can you elaborate?  I don't doubt you, but I'm interested in learning more about Mafia strategy.
I'll skip strategy for power roles (like Cop, the role that targets a player each night and learns their alignment) since that should be readily apparent.

A mafia game starts with no information about anyone.  Games generally get off to a good start with the joke-voting phase, or in some games, the random question phase.  The idea is to "break the ice", not in a social way, but to get a foothold on the game.
Any posting has a risk, sometimes small, sometimes large, that you'll post a bit differently from a town aligned player would, so mafia aligned players would refuse to join the banter, if they could.  But they can't get away with that because it's like refusing a polygraph test, it's a red flag.  In any phase of the game, avoiding posting or posting less is cause for suspicion, it's generally called "lurking".
Somewhere in the banter small suspicions come up.  They will be really small things that probably don't mean anything after all, but they give people a chance to take a stance on another player and join the process of ascertaining whether any particular player is scum.  Then those stances on the early activity can in turn be used as material for analysis, so once you get out of the RVS, RQS, or more generally, "low information stage", the town really has the ball rolling. 

Once the game is going, there are a handful of basic ways you can divine whether a player is scum from the way they post.  One is what I call "the survivalist tell", (many of my peers might put less stock in it than I do).  No player wants to be lynched, it hurts his faction's probability of winning.  But it hurts scum more than town, town is usually allowed more mislynches (innocent lynches) than correct lynches, and town can also help their faction by identifying scum players, while scum only have the goal of survival to focus on.  Lurking can be considered a subset of the survivalist tell, it does absolutely nothing at all to help you identify scum players for the town and makes it harder for other players to ascertain that you are scum.

Another, bigger way of finding scum is identifying players that can't "scumhunt".  Mafia aligned players know who are the scum are, so they have to fake the behavior of talking to players and trying to figure out if they are scum.  They may seem disengenuous, like they don't believe their own accusation, (how do you spell disengenuous? I'm too lazy to google this is already a wallpost).  They also will post things they think will look like this process, but really doesn't at all. For instance "Information Instead of Analysis" is when a scum player tries to fake scumhunting by discussing a history of what has happened so far, but totally fails to actually draw conclusions from the information and really just parrots it.

Other ways of identifying scum are debatable, situational, or even ineffable.  Many people have methods by which they can identify players who are (almost) definitely not scum, rather than picking up on someone being scum.  This tends to make power role interactions interesting, as a basic example, the Doctor will protect a player he thinks is definitely not scum. (Many face to face groups allow the Doctor to protect himself, which is stupid as all get out because he should protect himself every night..)


As a fun "try this at home" takeaway, forum mafia players have known for a long time that the most popular face to face setup, Doctor, Cop, a few mafia and townspeople, is broken in half.  The cop should claim that he is the cop as soon as the game starts, while the doctor remains concealed.  The cop can repeatedly investigate each night while protected by the doctor, then report his results to the town.
(Some groups do have a house rule against claiming your own role, which is unfortunate, since it isn't enforceable for hinting at your own role and isn't the best way to fix the doctor-cop problem)


Mafia is really not that strategic but is widely loved.
As a prominent member of the biggest forum mafia community 3 years running, I feel obligated to object to this.  Face to face mafia either degenerates into reading people's faces rather easily, or feeling like nothing you can do can help your chances of lynching correctly and that there are people waiting to play another game.  Forum mafia allows games to run on longterm timetables without inconveniencing dead people, and without overly easy face reads.  Playing face to face mafia and concluding it has no strategy is a bit like learning what moves are legal in chess, playing 3 games of blitz chess, and concluding there isn't much strategy.
Can you elaborate?  I don't doubt you, but I'm interested in learning more about Mafia strategy.

Oh good Lord do I love Mafia. I can play it online??? Where???? Help! I would love to play online. I really, really loved mafia, but you need, like, 10 friends to play it, and I spend all my time playing Dominion instead of making friends.

But anyway, yeah, Mafia is super strategic, even IRL. First of all, it's a game of memorization. You have to remember everything that people said, who they defended, because it becomes relevant in later rounds. It's been show, for instance, that if people can take notes while they play, they beat the Mafia much more consistently.

I got into it when I noticed a small group playing in an offtopic subforum of a forum I visit, thought to myself "there's probably a site for this", and googled to find a dedicated mafia site.  Most good search queries will take you to mafiascum.net
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 04:04:55 pm by popsofctown »
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Fabian

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2012, 06:15:30 pm »
+1

pops, that's interesting. POG is an acronym for Puzzles and Other Games, a sub-forum of 2+2, the biggest poker forum on the internet (twoplustwo.com, currently down for a few days I think). I assumed it was what you were talking about, since the rest of your post talked of poker quite a bit.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2012, 06:55:53 pm »
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Mafia is very similar to poker, so that's unsurprising.
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Fabian

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2012, 07:09:05 pm »
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I'm quite interested to check out this place now, after following (though not participating in) quite a few mafia games on 2+2 :)
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Axxle

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2012, 10:00:22 pm »
+1

I'm quite interested to check out this place now, after following (though not participating in) quite a few mafia games on 2+2 :)
I'm getting quite interested as well!  I might see you two there one of these days.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2012, 10:14:04 pm »
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I'm on hiatus from the site for, complex reasons.
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Axxle

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2012, 04:38:54 am »
+1

pops,

That would be POG I assume?
I play on Mafiascum.net.
I thought I heard about Mafiascum from somewhere before.  The forum's run by mith!  The great guy who used to run BGGDL.  Very cool!
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theory

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2012, 08:48:11 am »
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When I found out that rinkworks ran, well, rinkworks, that blew my mind.
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mith

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2012, 08:51:02 am »
+4

~wave~

Ok, yeah, rinkworks is more mindblowing. I'll go back to lurking now. :)
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Ozle

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2012, 09:39:23 am »
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I had never heard of Rinkworks until I just read this, thats exactly the sort of website I always wanted to make, came up with all the ideas and then realised im rubbish at making websites!

I am extremely jealous, but also will no longer be bored this afternoon!

Therefore I now conclude that Monopoly has finally found a worthwhile use....
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2012, 04:42:20 pm »
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I'm curious whether mith searches for his own name, reads this forum as exhaustively as I do, or was genuinely curious about Monopoly controversy.
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Grujah

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2012, 08:12:33 pm »
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As a fun "try this at home" takeaway, forum mafia players have known for a long time that the most popular face to face setup, Doctor, Cop, a few mafia and townspeople, is broken in half.  The cop should claim that he is the cop as soon as the game starts, while the doctor remains concealed.  The cop can repeatedly investigate each night while protected by the doctor, then report his results to the town.

Hmm... but a mafia player knows that, so can't he also claim as soon as possible that he is the Cop, so how does the Doctor know whom to heal at night? Plus, if the real Cop also claims the same, can't the mafia just kill him night after?
I guess if you are a Cop and someone else is a Cop you should just keep quiet and try to lynch him as soon as possible?
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Axxle

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2012, 08:18:40 pm »
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As a fun "try this at home" takeaway, forum mafia players have known for a long time that the most popular face to face setup, Doctor, Cop, a few mafia and townspeople, is broken in half.  The cop should claim that he is the cop as soon as the game starts, while the doctor remains concealed.  The cop can repeatedly investigate each night while protected by the doctor, then report his results to the town.

Hmm... but a mafia player knows that, so can't he also claim as soon as possible that he is the Cop, so how does the Doctor know whom to heal at night? Plus, if the real Cop also claims the same, can't the mafia just kill him night after?
I guess if you are a Cop and someone else is a Cop you should just keep quiet and try to lynch him as soon as possible?
I would think that if multiple people claim they're the cop, you lynch one, if they're the cop, lynch the other one who should be a mafia member.  Hopefully you lynch the mafia member first but there's no helping that.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2012, 08:58:50 pm »
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For reasons Axxle explained, getting a mafia member to fakeclaim generally means you've already gotten some gain, and the mafia are doing damage control.  You need fewer correct lynches than misses, so a 1-1 trade is good.

In the Doc-Cop setup in particular, you can just delay the "lynch one, then maybe the other" process until day 2 or 3, and have both "cops" report their results each day so you have them. 
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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2012, 09:00:13 pm »
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As a fun "try this at home" takeaway, forum mafia players have known for a long time that the most popular face to face setup, Doctor, Cop, a few mafia and townspeople, is broken in half.  The cop should claim that he is the cop as soon as the game starts, while the doctor remains concealed.  The cop can repeatedly investigate each night while protected by the doctor, then report his results to the town.

Hmm... but a mafia player knows that, so can't he also claim as soon as possible that he is the Cop, so how does the Doctor know whom to heal at night? Plus, if the real Cop also claims the same, can't the mafia just kill him night after?
I guess if you are a Cop and someone else is a Cop you should just keep quiet and try to lynch him as soon as possible?
I would think that if multiple people claim they're the cop, you lynch one, if they're the cop, lynch the other one who should be a mafia member.  Hopefully you lynch the mafia member first but there's no helping that.

Well the cop should only say he's the cop if he learns who a Mafia is, or else he is putting himself at risk without really useful information to tell. I mean, it does help to know if someone is innocent, but the mafia can just automatically kill that person in the night (this way they take out of the game someone whose status is certain), so it mitigates the usefulness of the information. Personally, I prefer to play with cop or medic, not both.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2012, 09:15:45 pm »
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Cop and doc both is a broken setup because the cop need not fear getting killed.  The doc just protects him.

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2012, 09:18:12 pm »
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1) Doctor can get killed/lynched
2) If cop claims, Mafia can get a bunch of kills without worrying that the doctor will interfere by not selecting the cop
3) Mafia can claim/counterclaim

It's not really broken.
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popsofctown

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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2012, 09:25:20 pm »
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It depends on how many mafia and how many townies there are.  Most face to face playgroups that use doc-cop use a proportion that favors the town even if they play like computers, which is what a mafia game designer would consider a "broken" setup in the sense that it definitely isn't setup to give both sides a 50-50 shot at victory.  Scum should have a slight edge in the setup if it were played by computers/without analyzing discussions, so that then the town's ability pry out the scum tilts the game to 50-50.
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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2012, 09:54:49 pm »
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Why does it need to be 50-50? I understand that we want a competitive game somewhat, but when 70-80% of the players are on one side its ok to have them win 65% of the time.
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Re: Re: In defense of Monopoly
« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2012, 10:09:14 pm »
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This is good question, about how many for each role. I've read that even if you hold the ratios constant, if you just increase the number of people to a certain point, the mafia will win every time.

I typically play like this, though it isn't ironclad: if you have only 8 people to play (not really very many), you have 2 mafia, 5 townies, 1 special role either cop or doctor. If you have 10-12 you can have cop and medic. If you have 13, you can add a mafia. I would be interested to see how other groups do it.
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