Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 [15] 16 17 ... 26  All

Author Topic: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1  (Read 29722 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #350 on: February 26, 2023, 03:42:47 pm »

I'm not buying this scum!mathdude theory. I liked it ok at first, but the fact is it feels cooked up by scum. Scumpoints to Lalight for uncritically accepting it.

I did not accept it in any way, I came to this conclusion by myself

after rereading all Joseph's posts
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #351 on: February 26, 2023, 03:43:04 pm »

Vote: EFHW

you think math is traitor and EFHW is SM?
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #352 on: February 26, 2023, 06:45:17 pm »

Vote: EFHW

you think math is traitor and EFHW is SM?

That would make a lot of sense. Consider the following:

  • EFHW defended Joseph, and killing a townie you just defended is an alright reason for killing someone because them flipping town gives you towncred for having defended them, and it removes the awkwardness of having to reverse your position later when you start to run out of townies you could accuse of being scum. If math is the traitor, that's all the more reason for scum to get rid of him.
  • It has been proposed that the SM is either feeling very secure or has been forced to take a big risk since they chose not to recruit, but it recently hit me that there is a third, arguably more likely explanation: the traitor is someone who will likely get exiled anyway, making it just a waste of a night kill to recruit them. Math was the main wagon when the exile failed to go through, and therefore one of the most likely traitors.
  • Ideally, the SM wants to avoid having the traitor exiled, but if the traitor is getting exiled anyway, bussing is good. EFHW's defense of math before ultimately joining the wagon is pretty consistent with this (it would have been a remarkably early commitment to bussing in that case, but evidently there were hopes of no exile going through, and EFHW is a competent enough player to realize that joining the wagon too late could come across as obvious bussing).

Separately from the hypothesis that math is the traitor, just in general whenever someone is trying to do something productive, EFHW chimes in in an attempt to shoot the case down, but she isn't building cases of her own and the votes she has cast have been for scola for not posting (which is a thing scola always does on D1 apparently), for math just to help an exile go through after explicitly defending math against the case on him, and for MiX for... not realizing we need a simple majority to get an exile through I guess? Super basic, unexciting reasons to vote for someone, and so her overall contribution to the game so far is that fewer cases are being made and pursued, which is anti-town. Could be the SM trying to buddy everyone by defending them, could be the SM buddying some people and also defending the traitor, could be the traitor just being anti-town on purpose while seemingly contributing.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #353 on: February 26, 2023, 07:32:59 pm »

Awaclus has some good arguments, but they aren't correct.

Also, I didn't (only) vote MiX for not voting at deadline. I mostly voted him for coming out of the gate at the beginning of the day with a theory about why math is scum - and it was a theory that didn't take two very real possibilities into consideration: that math would likely know and consider how it looks to nk Joseph, and that someone could have killed Joseph in order to frame math.

MiX is also confident and gutsy enough to go solo without the traitor.

It's true I've been shooting down theories. But I think it's scummy to put forward poorly reasoned or otherwise suspect cases, so I call them out when I see them.

Why would MiX "forget" it wasn't plurality exile? I would expect MiX to be double checking that when it's clear there is about to be a no-exile. He tends be pretty detail oriented iirc.
Logged

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #354 on: February 26, 2023, 07:35:06 pm »

Awaclus's #2 fits into a MiX case pretty well. He frames his partner then busses him, looking to earn a lot of towncred and get the extra nk.
Logged

MiX

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 78
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #355 on: February 26, 2023, 11:30:20 pm »

It's not clear there's going to be a no exile if you think it's plurality right?

That was me, in the deadline.

Also I'm not even sure it's alignment indicative, scum!me wouldn't pass the chance to hammer math, I generally prefer to be in situations I have already planned for, and I would have planned for no day skips. Although both alignments can forget plurality equally, so I'm not gonna claim some townpoints there.

I really want to agree with Awaclus but I can't see myself voting EFHW before math if I follow it. Also I feel like it makes the game look bigger than what it is: this is basically a revival of f.ds mafia, somewhat, people aren't generally active and stuff. Scum doesn't need to think too hard, nor would I expect them to always think well. I know I wouldn't.
Logged

MiX

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 78
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #356 on: February 26, 2023, 11:32:12 pm »

Given what I just said I will simply give LaLight the town stamp of townhood and will protect them with my life.

I'm sure I could get more townreads if I read the whole game. I wonder if I'll do that. Oh and a VCA would be cool to setup, just for fun.
Logged

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #357 on: February 27, 2023, 12:06:04 am »

Vote Count 2.2

mathdude(2): MiX, LaLight
scolapasta (1): WCD
MiX (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Joth, gkrieg, scolapasta, mathdude

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to Exile.
Day 2 ends Wednesday, March 1st at 8:35pm FT.


*Apologies on updates. Galz and I were at a work thing this weekend.*
Vote Count 2.1

scolapasta (2): Awaclus, WCD,
mathdude(1): MiX
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (6): Joth, gkrieg, LaLight, scolapasta, mathdude, WestCoastDidds

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to Exile.
Day 2 ends Wednesday, March 1st at 8:35pm FT.

Swan, you have me listed twice :)
This has been fixed. Thank you.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #358 on: February 27, 2023, 06:34:04 am »

Given what I just said I will simply give LaLight the town stamp of townhood and will protect them with my life.

I'm sure I could get more townreads if I read the whole game. I wonder if I'll do that. Oh and a VCA would be cool to setup, just for fun.

<3
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #359 on: February 27, 2023, 07:38:46 am »

vote: EFHW

Awaclus is making sense to me. I can never read EFHW myself, and I'm a bit lost right now, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #360 on: February 27, 2023, 07:39:43 am »

Deadline is my birthday (and Glooble's) and we will be out painting the town red (read: doing an escape room and seeing Ant-Man) so I likely won't be around for deadline.
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #361 on: February 27, 2023, 08:05:29 am »

I can see that scum would want an exile and wouldn't draw attention to themselves by beibgcthe obvious cause of a no exile.
Logged

jotheonah

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #362 on: February 27, 2023, 08:14:06 am »

Deadline is my birthday (and Glooble's) and we will be out painting the town red (read: doing an escape room and seeing Ant-Man) so I likely won't be around for deadline.

Interestingly, Didds, we also share a birthday with Justin Beiber, so maybe that's what he's doing at that fancy resort!
Logged
"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

He/him

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #363 on: February 27, 2023, 09:16:54 am »

I definitely would have recruited. If I was SM, I think it would be pretty stupid for me not to have last night, given how the day ended and that there was a high likelihood of being a target again today.

This seems like a strong argument.
Logged

mathdude

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 216
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #364 on: February 27, 2023, 09:38:44 am »

Deadline is my birthday (and Glooble's) and we will be out painting the town red (read: doing an escape room and seeing Ant-Man) so I likely won't be around for deadline.

You two are lucky to get a birthday this year. Mine is squished somewhere between tomorrow and Wednesday. But I'll finally get a real birthday again next year!
I will also be unavailable after 7pm on Wednesday, so I will miss deadline too.

I think I can get behind the arguement against EFHW.

On another note... I know we'd rather find the SM. But if/when we want to look for the traitor, they would almost definitely not be on my wagon D1. They would want to avoid exiling the person most agree is scum.
Logged
he/him

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #365 on: February 27, 2023, 09:43:15 am »

I think I can get behind the arguement against EFHW.

Including the part that assumes you're the traitor?
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - Roles Sent! Please Confirm!
« Reply #366 on: February 27, 2023, 10:44:16 am »

I would edit Lalight's quote list differently. First I'm taking out all the fluff. Then I add a few comments.

So let's finally do what needs to be done. Joseph reread.

{snip}
 
I’m here! I had closed my dedicated forum tab in my browser… I have to get back in the habit of checking this again!
Sounds like what lurking scum would say

Everything above is pretty much fluff. But here it gets interesting, given what Awaclus said:

Why is this scumreading of gkrieg fluff? It's the same level of accusation he made against Awaclus and mathdude, just this time it's gkrieg.

Now comes the theory that leads to his Awaclus vote, basically in reaction to joth challenging the discrepancy between his reactions to gkrieg and Awaclus.
Quote

Interesting. Why is that something lurking scum would say but

Looks like I don't get e-mail notifications from f.ds at all anymore, it used to be a little random before but I haven't gotten a single notification this whole thread. I guess I have to keep up with it manually.

is not? They're both very similar excuses for low activity, but Joseph called one out and ignored the other. Could it be because one came from a partner? J'accuse

Vote: Joseph2302
Vote: Awaclus then
My theory is that they're both scum, so doesn't matter so much which one we exile first (if we exile them both eventually, obviously godfather first is good)

Post #160 Joseph votes for mathdude 3rd, after Awaclus and LALIGHT
Vote: mathdude

#wagons

Now housekeeping/theory talk:
Quote
That's L-3 I think?

So we have 2 wagons with L-3 (is correct terminology now meant to be E-3?)

The traitor isn't irrelevant, we stop winning if we find the SM if the SM recruits the traitor. So, if we exile the traitor today, that's great news for us and bad news for scum, which is why it's in the strongman's best interests to stop that from happening if possible.
Agree, this is what I was (badly) trying to say earlier in the thread. Better to kill a scum than a town, even if it's "only" the traitor.

Gkrieg seems like an easy vote, as he hasn't posted much at all

OTOH, seems like an easy misexile target for scum to wagon on, which I think could be the case here

Ergo, I think there's scum on the gkrieg wagon, as whilst exiling lurkers seems to be common, it's an easy out for scum SM to avoid being exiled and losing immediately
None of this seems focused on mathdude. So far we have only the #wagons vote that refers to mathdude.

Quote
But here he doesn't sr Awaclus anymore (which also doesn't really clear Awa from suspicion):

Vote Count 1.4

gkrieg (5): WestCoastDidds, LaLight, mathdude, scolapasta, MiX (L-1)
Mathdude (3): Awaclus, Joseph, Joth
scolapasta (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): gkrieg
So by my previous logic that SM is on this lazy gkrieg wagon, I think SM is in {WCD, LL, math, scola}
This also doesn't target math specifically. Didds, Lalight and scola are equally pointed to. But he stays where he already was.

Quote
Vote Count 1.4

gkrieg (5): WestCoastDidds, LaLight, mathdude, scolapasta, MiX (L-1)
Mathdude (3): Awaclus, Joseph, Joth
scolapasta (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): gkrieg
So by my previous logic that SM is on this lazy gkrieg wagon, I think SM is in {WCD, LL, math, scola}
And so I'm fine with my vote on math, don't see a compelling reason to change right now
Do you see a compelling reason to change that he ignored?

{snip fluff}

Lalight:
Quote
And the last post

I don't expect to be around much, but think my vote is in a good place right now

What's the rule if we don't get a hammer? Presumably no exile (which is bad for town)?

I'm not sure what to draw from it, it's basically nothing. It points to mathdude, actually, probably, surely vote: mathdude

Joseph is not tunneling mathdude here. He sheeps onto the wagon and then doesn't have a reason to get off the wagon because math didn't strike him as towny. 5 of us settled on mathdude for similar reasons. "Actually, probably, surely" seems like overstatement.

vote: Lalight for his case. Also, I'll restate that I found math's argument that he would have recruited convincing.
Logged

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - Roles Sent! Please Confirm!
« Reply #367 on: February 27, 2023, 11:16:43 am »

"Actually, probably, surely" seems like overstatement.


it was my train of thought. Before my reread I was focused on Awaclus and after I changed my mind to mathdude. Also your vote doesn't count
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #368 on: February 27, 2023, 01:44:02 pm »

Deadline is my birthday (and Glooble's) and we will be out painting the town red (read: doing an escape room and seeing Ant-Man) so I likely won't be around for deadline.

Interestingly, Didds, we also share a birthday with Justin Beiber, so maybe that's what he's doing at that fancy resort!

He’s going to the fancy resort in the Bahamas for his birthday. It’s absurd that I know this.

Also, I’m back now so I’ll get caught up!
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - Roles Sent! Please Confirm!
« Reply #369 on: February 27, 2023, 02:30:42 pm »

"Actually, probably, surely" seems like overstatement.


it was my train of thought. Before my reread I was focused on Awaclus and after I changed my mind to mathdude. Also your vote doesn't count

I know. I'm staying on MiX.
Logged

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #370 on: February 27, 2023, 08:49:53 pm »

I’m trying to read along and get caught up.

Gkrieg still seems scarce? Or no?

MiX didn’t know it wasn’t plurality? That seems all kinds of out of character. But also, if he was scum he’d have shown up to hammer, maybe?

One more page to go! That will have to wait for the morning, though
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

mathdude

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 216
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #371 on: February 27, 2023, 09:58:36 pm »

I think I can get behind the arguement against EFHW.

Including the part that assumes you're the traitor?

Sure, why not?

No, just the opportunistic jump on anything that comes up on anyone.
Logged
he/him

mathdude

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 216
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #372 on: February 27, 2023, 10:03:56 pm »

I’m trying to read along and get caught up.

Gkrieg still seems scarce? Or no?

MiX didn’t know it wasn’t plurality? That seems all kinds of out of character. But also, if he was scum he’d have shown up to hammer, maybe?

One more page to go! That will have to wait for the morning, though

Yes, gk still seems very scarce.

And I agree MiX not knowing setup is out of character for him. A few possibilities:
1. He's scum protecting me as traitor (I know this isn't right)
2. He's scum, trying to frame me as traitor, based on point 1
3. He's traitor and thought I was his partner so didn't vote me out
4. He's a clueless townie who was too lazy to look at setup
Logged
he/him

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #373 on: February 27, 2023, 11:02:25 pm »

I think I can get behind the arguement against EFHW.

Including the part that assumes you're the traitor?

Sure, why not?

No, just the opportunistic jump on anything that comes up on anyone.
I hope you saw my response to this.
Logged

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M139 - Godfather Mafia - DAY 1
« Reply #374 on: February 28, 2023, 11:39:28 am »

Vote: gkrieg

I feel like I might have been fooled by strategic absence before. Galzria, maybe? At this point it’s starting to feel calculated.
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 [15] 16 17 ... 26  All
 

Page created in 2.749 seconds with 20 queries.