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Author Topic: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal  (Read 1322 times)

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Honkeyfresh

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+1

BREAKING NEWS!  SUPPLES IS BETTER THAN SILVER!

Well not breaking news at all.  Any Dominion player 45+ already knows this.  In any game where supplies is on the board you almost know your opponent isn't to smart when they open silver over supplies.  And if you are lucky enough to draw a 5/2 on a board with supplies you are pumped as you have a significant advantage there if there is any decent 5.

The top decking of multiple horses is just bonkers AF. Most games with good players devolve into a race to see who can get the most supplies and that person usually wins those games. I'd love to see one of our stat nerds pull that data out of the Dominion Analytics stuff. Also maybe how often supplies is bought over silver.

It is in fact so strong that I would recommend a tweak to any second edition version of Supplies that  it cost 3 and Silver costs 2 when supplies is in the kingdom.

And people would STILL buy supplies over silver in that alternate reality, which just goes to show you how ridiculously better than silver supplies is.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2022, 05:36:59 pm by Honkeyfresh »
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spineflu

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2022, 07:31:51 am »
+2

Well, it is similar in power level to Caravan Guard. Caravan Guard is better as you draw now, Supplies is better as it is no Duration. Unless there are interactions like Mastermind, such delayed Peddlers are not powerhouses though.
Lighthouse is also often enough superior to Silver yet totally fine at $2. Lots of $5 Actions are situationally superior to Gold yet totally fine at $5.

i think there is an inversion point where supplies is fully better than CG - whenever you get enough that the next-turn-horses will draw deck, since that means you can do the trick all over again next turn. Still, this means trashing out chaff, coping with greening, etc. it's good but not broken good.
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LastFootnote

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2022, 11:11:27 am »
+4

The start of your turn is basically the best time to draw cards, so it’s quite possible Supplies is better than Peddler. It just depends on how much the first play hurts you.
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Commodore Chuckles

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2022, 01:02:54 pm »
+4

You know what else is so much better than Silver that it's almost criminal? Delve.
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trivialknot

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2022, 02:11:58 pm »
+2

Yeah, it's real strong.

Hard to say what the appropriate price for a Peddler is, but there are plenty of Peddler-plus cards at $5, and Poacher at $4 is sort of a Peddler-minus.  Supplies is practically a Peddler-plus, since the draw is at the beginning of your turn, and it's slightly less likely to skip shuffle than a Peddler is.  And yet, it costs $2.

The main draw back is that the draw is deferred to next turn.  This might be best illustrated by imagining a hypothetical scenario, where you buy 5 Supplies, topdecking them all.  The cost wasn't just $10 and 5 buys, you also had to pay the cost of having a dud turn with 5 coppers.  Obviously it won't really happen that way, but until you get your horses, each Supplies adds a tiny bit of dud tendency into your next shuffle.  So Supplies is like a Peddler that costs a bit more than $2.  I think it's quite underpriced still.
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ephesos

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2022, 06:07:46 pm »
+4

If an average card in your deck produces less than $1, then Supplies is worse than Silver. This is most common at the start of the game, when your average is $0.7 per card. But you can also have something like an Ill-Gotten Gains rush, or your opponent got some kind of insane Cursing/junking and you just get blown out. Most games, you hope to eventually raise that average value above $1 though.

So Supplies is a slower start than Silver. It makes you cycle faster, which balances it out, and it's way better in the mid to late game. But if you need to hit $5 on your first shuffle, Silver gives better odds. Doing 10,000 simulations, the odds of hitting $5 on your first shuffle are around 91% for opening double Silver vs. 82% for opening Silver + Supplies and 60% for opening double Supplies. And if you wanted to hit a $6 for Goons, that's 42% with double Silver vs. 26% with Silver + Supplies and 7% with double Supplies. You also have some games where you open an action card that doesn't produce $ like Ambassador, which gives odds of hitting $5 around 50% with Silver + X and 20% for Supplies + X.
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Awaclus

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2022, 07:09:52 pm »
+2

If an average card in your deck produces less than $1, then Supplies is worse than Silver. This is most common at the start of the game, when your average is $0.7 per card. But you can also have something like an Ill-Gotten Gains rush, or your opponent got some kind of insane Cursing/junking and you just get blown out. Most games, you hope to eventually raise that average value above $1 though.

It improves your expected $/turn less than Silver, but that doesn't automatically mean it's worse than Silver. The fact that you're cycling faster is relevant.
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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2022, 12:07:37 pm »
+1

agree, i guess one point for silver is that it's a hair better as an opener if there is a 5 that must be grabbed before the second shuffle.
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2022, 03:45:03 pm »
0

Well, it is similar in power level to Caravan Guard. Caravan Guard is better as you draw now, Supplies is better as it is no Duration. Unless there are interactions like Mastermind, such delayed Peddlers are not powerhouses though.
Lighthouse is also often enough superior to Silver yet totally fine at $2. Lots of $5 Actions are situationally superior to Gold yet totally fine at $5.

that the throng here debate it to a 4 cost card in value (which is obviously one tire higher that silver in value) is an excellent argument for my position.  especially since most have said that supplies is actually better than a card that costs twice as much.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2022, 03:54:31 pm by Honkeyfresh »
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2022, 03:47:39 pm »
+1

You know what else is so much better than Silver that it's almost criminal? Delve.

with delve on the board with supplies what is your 4$ buy?  Not silver/silver...  Though silver/suplies could be money based on how quickly the board demands you to hit 5/6 (especially with grand market)
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2022, 03:49:18 pm »
0

Well, it is similar in power level to Caravan Guard. Caravan Guard is better as you draw now, Supplies is better as it is no Duration. Unless there are interactions like Mastermind, such delayed Peddlers are not powerhouses though.
Lighthouse is also often enough superior to Silver yet totally fine at $2. Lots of $5 Actions are situationally superior to Gold yet totally fine at $5.

i think there is an inversion point where supplies is fully better than CG - whenever you get enough that the next-turn-horses will draw deck, since that means you can do the trick all over again next turn. Still, this means trashing out chaff, coping with greening, etc. it's good but not broken good.
Well, I think it is on average slightly better than Caravan Guard. Delaying draw is not that bad (and arguably even better than drawing immediately) whereas missing shuffles matters far more.

But vanilla-wise it is still just a delayed Peddler which is why I don't get the opening post.

um it gives two cards the next turn not one.  Immensely better.
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2022, 03:51:45 pm »
0

Yeah, it's real strong.

Hard to say what the appropriate price for a Peddler is, but there are plenty of Peddler-plus cards at $5, and Poacher at $4 is sort of a Peddler-minus.  Supplies is practically a Peddler-plus, since the draw is at the beginning of your turn, and it's slightly less likely to skip shuffle than a Peddler is.  And yet, it costs $2.

The main draw back is that the draw is deferred to next turn.  This might be best illustrated by imagining a hypothetical scenario, where you buy 5 Supplies, top-decking them all.  The cost wasn't just $10 and 5 buys, you also had to pay the cost of having a dud turn with 5 coppers.  Obviously it won't really happen that way, but until you get your horses, each Supplies adds a tiny bit of dud tendency into your next shuffle.  So Supplies is like a Peddler that costs a bit more than $2.  I think it's quite underpriced still.

even in that scenario your 5 supplies essentially act as a stampede/tactician, which is often better than the alternatives.
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2022, 03:53:41 pm »
0

If an average card in your deck produces less than $1, then Supplies is worse than Silver. This is most common at the start of the game, when your average is $0.7 per card. But you can also have something like an Ill-Gotten Gains rush, or your opponent got some kind of insane Cursing/junking and you just get blown out. Most games, you hope to eventually raise that average value above $1 though.

So Supplies is a slower start than Silver. It makes you cycle faster, which balances it out, and it's way better in the mid to late game. But if you need to hit $5 on your first shuffle, Silver gives better odds. Doing 10,000 simulations, the odds of hitting $5 on your first shuffle are around 91% for opening double Silver vs. 82% for opening Silver + Supplies and 60% for opening double Supplies. And if you wanted to hit a $6 for Goons, that's 42% with double Silver vs. 26% with Silver + Supplies and 7% with double Supplies. You also have some games where you open an action card that doesn't produce $ like Ambassador, which gives odds of hitting $5 around 50% with Silver + X and 20% for Supplies + X.

agreed to an extent.  But often in that case you are buying cards (market/goons/Merchant guild) with the idea of then later buying as many supplies as you can.

But thanks for the data.  It has actually made me consider the idea of silver/suplies more often than supplies to suplies.  ;D 8) :P
« Last Edit: June 10, 2022, 03:55:31 pm by Honkeyfresh »
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Honkeyfresh

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2022, 03:57:11 pm »
0

If an average card in your deck produces less than $1, then Supplies is worse than Silver. This is most common at the start of the game, when your average is $0.7 per card. But you can also have something like an Ill-Gotten Gains rush, or your opponent got some kind of insane Cursing/junking and you just get blown out. Most games, you hope to eventually raise that average value above $1 though.

It improves your expected $/turn less than Silver, but that doesn't automatically mean it's worse than Silver. The fact that you're cycling faster is relevant.

more than relevant its huge.  If you ignore supplies in a page/peasant line game you will get absolutely murdered.
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Imrahil3

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Re: Supplies is so much better than silver that it's almost criminal
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2022, 03:59:10 pm »
+4

Well, it is similar in power level to Caravan Guard. Caravan Guard is better as you draw now, Supplies is better as it is no Duration. Unless there are interactions like Mastermind, such delayed Peddlers are not powerhouses though.
Lighthouse is also often enough superior to Silver yet totally fine at $2. Lots of $5 Actions are situationally superior to Gold yet totally fine at $5.

i think there is an inversion point where supplies is fully better than CG - whenever you get enough that the next-turn-horses will draw deck, since that means you can do the trick all over again next turn. Still, this means trashing out chaff, coping with greening, etc. it's good but not broken good.
Well, I think it is on average slightly better than Caravan Guard. Delaying draw is not that bad (and arguably even better than drawing immediately) whereas missing shuffles matters far more.

But vanilla-wise it is still just a delayed Peddler which is why I don't get the opening post.

um it gives two cards the next turn not one.  Immensely better.

Horses only give you one card. They only increase your hand size by one. They technically draw two, but if you didn’t have the horse you wouldn’t have had it in hand to begin with, so you’d just have four cards plus the first card you would’ve drawn with horse.

Supplies is basically an Action - Duration that gives +1 Action, +$1 now and +1 Card next turn.
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