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Author Topic: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 36159 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1250 on: March 18, 2022, 02:28:57 am »

meh... just re read... it was less implied for the wcd thing then I thought.
Allow me to jokingly answer some of the nonsense questions while actually answering the others....

1a) So Swowl, what are your thoughts on Galz/Jack? - this is 100% covered. I think they could be skum in place of other spots, but I don't think they could be skum with you. also covered... either they are skum, or they are town... either way... me, them, and the remainder of skum all have the same pov (or can lie about it I guess.. semantics).

1b) Are they scum with you? - hope not, that would be weird.

2) Are you skum? - Only if you are.

3)  What do you think of the Didds wagon EOD2 and does this make Didds more likely scum? I think... the wagon is all town. And obviously yes this grants points.

10)  Why didn't you comment much on it, other than to point out that there's multiple scum on pasta's wagon (from your POV)? - Not much to comment on there. All town wagon... the posts are long enough. I did things like cut out the obvious shit... same as Day 1 vca where I removed all votes that originated from town players.

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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1251 on: March 18, 2022, 02:30:05 am »


D3 Thoughts:
From my POV, Scum obviously didn't care who of me or MiX got voted out, as votes consolidated there toward EOD.  So whether scum didn't show up, or was around and didn't care to do much doesn't really matter.  They were happy with either outcome.  And Didds, potentially the only active one toward EOD, was able to do whatever looked most townie. 

So people that did nothing were skummy and the person that did do something was skummy?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1252 on: March 18, 2022, 05:16:46 am »

So here's what I think. 2 main points.

1.
Day 3 mathdude and Didds were bussing each other.
joth said so:
Didds is playing right into the “Didds and math are partners” narrative with that switch.
Kinda answers the “who could possibly be bussing?” Question nicely, doesn’t it?
That sucks. Somebody vote math. It’s so obvious what’s happening here.

Looking at other stuff from day 3 I agree with him. Then joth was the night kill.

2.
Day 1 mathdude reminded us of the importance of listening to dead townie players:
Then, even though f.ds usually doesn't look at dead townie players' posts and reads (and I really think they should, and will continue to say that)...
... but he has not continued to say that.

Maybe because the dead townies (especially the ones that have been night-killed) have been correctly identifying his scum partners.

I've already mentioned joth's final words.
Here are e's final words:
Vote: scola

Your partner to the rescue didds
e was the only one seriously suspicious of gkrieg.

So, as of start of day 4, I would have said the team is mathdude+Didds. And probably gkrieg.

The things I've seen happening Day 4 are:
- Swowl working hard to figure things out.
- mathdude, Didds and gkrieg initially unsure what to do (presumably their overnight plan involved throwing shade on me, after how day 3 ended), then trying to figure out whether they need to be bussing each other or not.
- Jack Rudd is the mystery. It is also weird how no-one else seems to have been trying to get Jack to give any views or commit to any positions or anything.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1253 on: March 18, 2022, 07:16:51 am »

Good morning!

I am unsure what to do because I am utterly defeated by my ability to play this game. After the MiX flip I was way more bummed out than I should be about a game so I needed to take a minute and get some space. My initial thought was to come into the day and just tie my vote to someone we all trust. It would have been EFHW, but now it would be fang because of the double voter. I didn’t say it right off the bat because the double voter thing happened and then Jack replaced in, so my head was elsewhere. I’m still willing to do this. I will vote however you’d like me to vote. I have no scum motive at all, and I have only been wrong this game about everyone (except that I thought Joth was mistaken town, but I’m not sure I said that aloud). I only want to help us win and I have been ish at that so far.

An aside… I have some fear that EFHW is scum because someone being this universally town read is unlikely to still be alive, but I think if she is, we probably just lose. Well played. Swowl is town. Fang is town. It shouldn’t be this hard to choose one of the 4 of the remainder to exile with confidence.

For those of us that have a played a couple of games with Jack, the reason we aren’t pressing him more is that it tends to be of little use. He doesn’t really develop reads, and doesn’t share his thoughts beyond the immediate. At least that has been my sense.

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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1254 on: March 18, 2022, 09:24:23 am »

That is a fair summary of the problems of playing with me. It's also why I tend only to come in as a sub.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1255 on: March 18, 2022, 09:27:23 am »

(I am, by the way, posting this while sitting in a lounge at Singapore airport, with a 13-hour flight coming up soon.)
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1256 on: March 18, 2022, 11:16:23 am »

gkrieg, please look at math again carefully. Helplessness here feels like a scum strategy to me.

So are you not saying much because you're happy with how wrong we are and you know you win the game today?  In a few hours, this most recent post of yours will be 48 hours old.

Prod: EFHW

Oh, and it's not that you haven't been online.  Your profile says this:
Quote
Last Active: Today at 10:20:44 am
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1257 on: March 18, 2022, 11:41:43 am »

7 players left in this game, and 3 scum.  Time for me to organize my thoughts.

mathdude - I know I'm town.  Many have me in their top 2 as scum.  gkrieg who has been the main one town-reading me has been asked to re-read me, but is too busy IRL to do that.

infangthief - claimed double-voter, no counterclaim, but start-of-day posts seem to confirm a double-voter, so presumably confirmed IC (I say "presumably", but once he votes and it shows up in VC, then it is definitely confirmed).

gkrieg - has had 6 posts in the ~100 hours of D4 so far, and has responded to/about me and fang, stated an early-day willingness to vote for Didds or Jack, but lately posts have just said "I'm busy, I'll try and get to it" - also, was online about 30 minutes ago (as per his profile page), but didn't post anything.

EFHW - many people seem to be strongly town-reading her... can someone please tell me why?  Also, 7 posts in D4 so far, but as per my previous post nothing in the last 40+ hours, even though she's been online this morning.

Swowl - again, people seem to be town-reading him... can someone tell me why?  Is it just the try-hard of the VCA's lately?  Because I know I've done similar as scum in the past - it's very easy to do as scum, as long as you can parse the info that everyone knows and the info only you know and keep the second hidden... and when asked "what did you learn from that" - a scummy response is "not nearly as much as I had hoped", which I have said similarly as scum in the past!

Galz/Jack - even with the sub, still basically sliding under the radar.  The MO seems to be very similar to the previous time when Jack subbed in for a scum!Galz.  The one main idea that I've heard is that "Galz can't be scum with mathdude" (repeated by at lease 2 people) - is this why people aren't interested in Jack?  Or has he just been slipping under the radar still for others too?

Didds - the same way some people have kept coming back to "math must be scum"... I (and I think I've seen hints of it from others too) keep coming back to "Didds must be scum".  And I'm starting to have more of a problem with this read, since I'm recently reading Didds' frustration ("why are people scum-reading me?" and "if I'm voted out, game's over") as being almost the same as my frustration.

I'm trying to imagine a way that Didds might be town.  That would mean 3 of gkrieg, EFHW, Swowl, and Jack/Galz are scum.  Could that be true?  Maybe.  I feel like it's more likely Didds with 2 of those.  But if it is 3 of those 4, we don't need to sort out which 3 today.  We need to figure out 1.  Which is most likely?  I'd say probably Jack/Galz?

So if it's 3 of those 4, Jack/Galz is probably the way to go.  If it's Didds plus 2 of those 4, I think Jack/Galz is probably still 1 of the 2 (though I'm a little less confident).  I think at this point, I'd vote Didds or Jack/Galz.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1258 on: March 18, 2022, 11:46:03 am »

An aside… I have some fear that EFHW is scum because someone being this universally town read is unlikely to still be alive, but I think if she is, we probably just lose. Well played. Swowl is town. Fang is town. It shouldn’t be this hard to choose one of the 4 of the remainder to exile with confidence.

For those of us that have a played a couple of games with Jack, the reason we aren’t pressing him more is that it tends to be of little use. He doesn’t really develop reads, and doesn’t share his thoughts beyond the immediate. At least that has been my sense.

So don't give EFHW a pass.  Is there anything concrete saying she's town?  If not, then she could still be scum.  You have a very valid point of a strongly town-read player still being alive.  (But if EFHW is town and was killed instead of joth, we could probably have said the same thing about joth today).

Why is Swowl town?

And if we can't get much useful out of Jack today, then we have to go back to what Galz has given (or not given) us, which is strongly scummy, IMO, between not showing up much, voting then not changing it all day sometimes, etc.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1259 on: March 18, 2022, 12:07:03 pm »

(I am, by the way, posting this while sitting in a lounge at Singapore airport, with a 13-hour flight coming up soon.)

Safe travels!
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1260 on: March 18, 2022, 12:08:59 pm »

gkrieg, please look at math again carefully. Helplessness here feels like a scum strategy to me.

So are you not saying much because you're happy with how wrong we are and you know you win the game today?  In a few hours, this most recent post of yours will be 48 hours old.

Prod: EFHW

Oh, and it's not that you haven't been online.  Your profile says this:
Quote
Last Active: Today at 10:20:44 am

If you leave the browser open, it will say you’ve been online when you open your  computer. So, that is not nefarious.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1261 on: March 18, 2022, 12:22:03 pm »

So here's what I think. 2 main points.

1.
Day 3 mathdude and Didds were bussing each other.
joth said so:
Didds is playing right into the “Didds and math are partners” narrative with that switch.
Kinda answers the “who could possibly be bussing?” Question nicely, doesn’t it?
That sucks. Somebody vote math. It’s so obvious what’s happening here.

Looking at other stuff from day 3 I agree with him. Then joth was the night kill.

2.
Day 1 mathdude reminded us of the importance of listening to dead townie players:
Then, even though f.ds usually doesn't look at dead townie players' posts and reads (and I really think they should, and will continue to say that)...
... but he has not continued to say that.

Maybe because the dead townies (especially the ones that have been night-killed) have been correctly identifying his scum partners.

I've already mentioned joth's final words.
Here are e's final words:
Vote: scola

Your partner to the rescue didds
e was the only one seriously suspicious of gkrieg.

So, as of start of day 4, I would have said the team is mathdude+Didds. And probably gkrieg.

The things I've seen happening Day 4 are:
- Swowl working hard to figure things out.
- mathdude, Didds and gkrieg initially unsure what to do (presumably their overnight plan involved throwing shade on me, after how day 3 ended), then trying to figure out whether they need to be bussing each other or not.
- Jack Rudd is the mystery. It is also weird how no-one else seems to have been trying to get Jack to give any views or commit to any positions or anything.

I do still feel that f.ds should more often look back at dead townie players (especially those that are night-killed).  In this case, your quotes from joth show that he had wrong reads. 

Where are the conf-town votes each EoD?
D1: 2 on Dylan (they were wrong), 4 on 2.71 (they were were wrong), 1 not voting.
D2: 1 on pasta (he was wrong), 4 on Didds (jury's still out).
D3: 1 on MiX (fang was wrong), 2 on me (I and scum know they are wrong, but from other POV, jury's still out).

Conf-town players from D1 give us nothing.  From D2, they seem to strongly suggest we vote Didds.  From D3, it looks like they point to me.  But the 2 that were voting for me were MiX (the D2 Exile) and joth (who scum killed at night, presumably the point to me... note that they could have also killed EFHW with the same result).  Note that if scum killed anyone else last night, it would have resulted in a nothing!burger - killing a town among gkrieg, fang, me, or Didds would have been a conf!town on conf!town!MiX, and killing Swowl or Galz (if either are town) would be a conf!town not voting.  By killing from joth/EFHW, they can point to me for the final mix-exile.

Where are the votes from the remaining 6 who could be scum (from fang's POV) each EoD?
D1: math, gkrieg, Didds all on Dylan (we were wrong); EFHW, Swowl, Galz all on me.
D2: math, EFHW, gkrieg, Didds all on pasta (we were wrong); Galz, Swowl both on me.
D3: gkrieg, math, Didds all on MiX (we were wrong); EFHW on me; Galz, Swowl not voting.

So gkrieg, me, and Didds were always on the "winning" wagon, which always voted out town.  EFHW joined once.  EFHW, Swowl, and Galz all want me exiled.  So me, gkrieg, and Didds all know there's at least 1 scum in that latter group (EFHW, Swow, and Galz/Jack).  By the same logic that says (from an outside POV) that it's not me/gkrieg/Didds (why would we all vote the same all game?), I'm fairly certain it's not all of EFHW, Galz/Jack, and Swowl (they are way too united all game against me)... so that leads me to believe it's at least 1 of gkrieg or Didds again - maybe both, but probably 1?

I don't know how else to look at things.  I've tried a number of different perspectives, and I don't know what I've gained.  Maybe it helps someone else?  We need a red flip to actually start parsing things out.  Where is the most likely red today?  Given all the possible scum-teams, is Galz/Jack the common denominator?  Is it Didds?
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1262 on: March 18, 2022, 12:23:16 pm »

gkrieg, please look at math again carefully. Helplessness here feels like a scum strategy to me.

So are you not saying much because you're happy with how wrong we are and you know you win the game today?  In a few hours, this most recent post of yours will be 48 hours old.

Prod: EFHW

Oh, and it's not that you haven't been online.  Your profile says this:
Quote
Last Active: Today at 10:20:44 am

If you leave the browser open, it will say you’ve been online when you open your  computer. So, that is not nefarious.

Fair enough.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1263 on: March 18, 2022, 12:46:03 pm »

"Scum wouldn't all be on the same wagon" only has any weight if the alternative feasible wagon(s) are all on town. And even then, there is WIFOM.

Do you remember dwarfs mafia? Scum team mathdude, Didds, Galzria.
Day 1 all on the same wagon (alternative was Didds).
Day 2 all on the same wagon (alternative was mathdude).
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1264 on: March 18, 2022, 12:48:01 pm »

Anyway, it's time we did some voting. I intend to vote for Didds.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1265 on: March 18, 2022, 01:24:26 pm »

Anyway, it's time we did some voting. I intend to vote for Didds.

Then we lose.

Might as well get it over with if that is how its going to go.
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1266 on: March 18, 2022, 02:10:33 pm »

gkrieg, please look at math again carefully. Helplessness here feels like a scum strategy to me.

So are you not saying much because you're happy with how wrong we are and you know you win the game today?  In a few hours, this most recent post of yours will be 48 hours old.

Prod: EFHW

Oh, and it's not that you haven't been online.  Your profile says this:
Quote
Last Active: Today at 10:20:44 am

I sometimes check in but don't have time to make a worthwhile contribution.  You and Galz/Jack are my strongest scumreads, so yes, I have been ok with the directions things are going. I'm surprised to see fang settling on Didds. I plan to review his logic before responding.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1267 on: March 18, 2022, 05:07:04 pm »

7 players left in this game, and 3 scum.  Time for me to organize my thoughts.

mathdude - I know I'm town.  Many have me in their top 2 as scum.  gkrieg who has been the main one town-reading me has been asked to re-read me, but is too busy IRL to do that.

infangthief - claimed double-voter, no counterclaim, but start-of-day posts seem to confirm a double-voter, so presumably confirmed IC (I say "presumably", but once he votes and it shows up in VC, then it is definitely confirmed).

gkrieg - has had 6 posts in the ~100 hours of D4 so far, and has responded to/about me and fang, stated an early-day willingness to vote for Didds or Jack, but lately posts have just said "I'm busy, I'll try and get to it" - also, was online about 30 minutes ago (as per his profile page), but didn't post anything.

EFHW - many people seem to be strongly town-reading her... can someone please tell me why?  Also, 7 posts in D4 so far, but as per my previous post nothing in the last 40+ hours, even though she's been online this morning.

Swowl - again, people seem to be town-reading him... can someone tell me why?  Is it just the try-hard of the VCA's lately?  Because I know I've done similar as scum in the past - it's very easy to do as scum, as long as you can parse the info that everyone knows and the info only you know and keep the second hidden... and when asked "what did you learn from that" - a scummy response is "not nearly as much as I had hoped", which I have said similarly as scum in the past!

Galz/Jack - even with the sub, still basically sliding under the radar.  The MO seems to be very similar to the previous time when Jack subbed in for a scum!Galz.  The one main idea that I've heard is that "Galz can't be scum with mathdude" (repeated by at lease 2 people) - is this why people aren't interested in Jack?  Or has he just been slipping under the radar still for others too?

Didds - the same way some people have kept coming back to "math must be scum"... I (and I think I've seen hints of it from others too) keep coming back to "Didds must be scum".  And I'm starting to have more of a problem with this read, since I'm recently reading Didds' frustration ("why are people scum-reading me?" and "if I'm voted out, game's over") as being almost the same as my frustration.

I'm trying to imagine a way that Didds might be town.  That would mean 3 of gkrieg, EFHW, Swowl, and Jack/Galz are scum.  Could that be true?  Maybe.  I feel like it's more likely Didds with 2 of those.  But if it is 3 of those 4, we don't need to sort out which 3 today.  We need to figure out 1.  Which is most likely?  I'd say probably Jack/Galz?

So if it's 3 of those 4, Jack/Galz is probably the way to go.  If it's Didds plus 2 of those 4, I think Jack/Galz is probably still 1 of the 2 (though I'm a little less confident).  I think at this point, I'd vote Didds or Jack/Galz.

Note that I just have this page on my computer, so it shows me as online when I open my computer. I went to sleep at 5:30 this morning and have chores to catch up on. I’ll try to get to this tonight, but I have tried to respond to direct questions to me that don’t require rereading a lot of the game.
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1268 on: March 18, 2022, 06:41:03 pm »

So it sounds like the cases on Didds and mathdude are linked. Two reasons:

1. They have been voting similarly.
2. Didds has twice changed votes with the result of a clutch save for mathdude (D1 and D3).

These point to possible partners Didds/math.

Other thoughts to ponder:

a. I think Jack and Didds are not scum together.
b. gkrieg has also been voting with math and Didds. I agree with math that they all three would not make up the team.
c. Didds has been super supportive of me. Makes it really hard for me to turn against her, and I've been staying out of the Didds question for that reason (also because the Galz/Jack case was so bad, it gave her townpoints in my eyes). But I will vote her if she seems like the best exile.

I'm going to reread Day 3 and see where that gets me.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1269 on: March 18, 2022, 07:00:48 pm »

Gotten started with the reread, realized I'd forgotten about math's case on Didds. Maybe a partner makes a lousy case to create towncred for the partner, but I don't think that is likely. So this weakens the Didds/math link for me.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1270 on: March 18, 2022, 07:48:56 pm »

If fang is a double voter, he will decide the game. Scum isn’t going to bus if he is leaning toward voting for me, and he only needs 2 scum to vote with him to exile me and end the game.

So, it’s all rather pointless. Only fang matters.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1271 on: March 18, 2022, 11:34:41 pm »

Anyway, it's time we did some voting. I intend to vote for Didds.

Why are we on different pages about this in regards to Math/Didds?
is it just the day 2 wagon?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1272 on: March 19, 2022, 12:41:46 am »

Anyway, it's time we did some voting. I intend to vote for Didds.

Then we lose.

Might as well get it over with if that is how its going to go.

If fang is a double voter, he will decide the game. Scum isn’t going to bus if he is leaning toward voting for me, and he only needs 2 scum to vote with him to exile me and end the game.

So, it’s all rather pointless. Only fang matters.

Didds, it's posts like this that really give me pause on saying you're scum.  You're doing a really good job of looking like town, calling it a lost cause at this point.  Can you do something scummy again, so I can feel better about wanting to vote for you?

Like I said earlier, the problem if it's not you is that it's 3 of the remaining 4 and they have been very similar voting all game, and that bothers me.  If you're scum, it makes more sense to me.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1273 on: March 19, 2022, 12:45:07 am »

Anyway, it's time we did some voting. I intend to vote for Didds.

Why are we on different pages about this in regards to Math/Didds?
is it just the day 2 wagon?

And why are you assuming that people (or at least fang) think you're town?  If you're scum, then your reads don't matter as much, yet... and if Didds flips scum, then you look really bad for it.  (And if Didds flips town, then well played to you and your partners, for fooling most of the town).
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1274 on: March 19, 2022, 05:54:03 am »

a. I think Jack and Didds are not scum together.
Why not? Start of day 2 looks very partnery to me, and is one of the reasons I'm preferring Didds over mathdude.

Gotten started with the reread, realized I'd forgotten about math's case on Didds. Maybe a partner makes a lousy case to create towncred for the partner, but I don't think that is likely. So this weakens the Didds/math link for me.
I did exactly that in Mouse Mafia and you called me out for "bussing with no teeth". What is the difference here?
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