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Author Topic: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 36164 times)

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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1225 on: March 16, 2022, 12:07:29 pm »

I have a deadline on Thursday, then a friend coming into town Friday. I will not be around too much.

Would go for Didds or Jack at this point. I'm glad fang is our IC.

Ok, with many people still putting me on top of their scum list, gkrieg why are you still not wanting to vote for me? Is there anything more than a D1 or D2 gut feel? Or did you just pick a read and stick with it all game for consistency?

I'm ready to vote gkrieg unless he has a valid reason to town-read me against the majority all game.

What I have seen you do as scum, you arenít doing here. As I said earlier, you are scum hunting. You are also not making many posts that donít accomplish anything but attempt to appear townie. Like reminding people of deadlines or asking people to give opinions but not giving your own. Iím on my phone so canít pull examples of all this right now.
I'm wondering what others think of this. I believe others have said the opposite... that I'm not scum hunting, and that I have made useless posts that don't accomplish anything. It sounds to me like you're sticking to a D1 read as scum to not draw attention ro yourself. And you're hoping I'll keep following you, since I have stated a few times that based on confirmation bias, I was town-reading you.
Before seeing what others think of this, I'm wondering what you think of this. Have you been scum hunting? Have you been making useless posts that don't accomplish anything?
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1226 on: March 16, 2022, 12:15:22 pm »

But in all reality, Galz is the scummiest
Didds, when and why did you come to this conclusion?

It was towards the end of the Day, and i came to the conclusion because by that point I thought it was increasingly scummy to say that a big wall post is coming, hold tight and then no-show. It felt calculated to me, especially with the plurality exile. He could say he was coming, not answer questions, etc. and flatten the discussion and then not vote, or park on an empty wagon, because he didnít have to vote to get town exiled.

Can you say more precisely when towards the end of the day?

Also, has your view changed since then or is Galzria/Jack Rudd still the scummiest?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1227 on: March 16, 2022, 01:31:20 pm »

But in all reality, Galz is the scummiest
Didds, when and why did you come to this conclusion?

It was towards the end of the Day, and i came to the conclusion because by that point I thought it was increasingly scummy to say that a big wall post is coming, hold tight and then no-show. It felt calculated to me, especially with the plurality exile. He could say he was coming, not answer questions, etc. and flatten the discussion and then not vote, or park on an empty wagon, because he didnít have to vote to get town exiled.

Can you say more precisely when towards the end of the day?

Also, has your view changed since then or is Galzria/Jack Rudd still the scummiest?

Uhm... my thought accumulate instead of being precise moments. So, I was thinking about it when I went to bed (when is about when he and swowl usually post since they are California bois) I was frustrated with Galz, and frustrated that folks were waiting for him, and then when I woke up in the morning I was kind of in a dash to catch up. Fang asked me to vote for MiX and he seemed to be more involved in his reading, and then when Joth asked why I switched I said that I was following fang, but at that point I would really rather have voted for Glaz but didn't think there was time to make that happen.  So sometime in the last hour of the day, after thinking about it during the evening.

Jack hasn't done anything scummy, and I think it is super hard when there is a replacement because he doesn't have to do much. If Glaz were still in the game, then yes... still the scummiest.

I have been playing around with the combos if I assume that you (fang) and EFHW are town along with me.

Possible teams:

gkrieg, Galz/ack, mathdude
Glaz/ack, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Galz/ack, Swowl

I am leaning the most towny on EFHW, so I left her out. My next most town is swowl, so his combos are at the bottom.  There seems to be some degree of confusion about Galz/math and if they could be buddies...I am at work so I haven't had time to really read or think about this but if we take it on face value, then gkrieg is the best choice from my view.
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1228 on: March 16, 2022, 01:58:44 pm »

Honestly, I have no idea where we're at. I have no idea how to convince people I'm not scum. But I'm not, and the game ends today if we can't sort this out.

Fang is the only verifiable role so far. It seems that there are 8 votes, but with 7 players we only need 4 to exile. Is there any other way this works other than a double-voter? And absent a counter-claim, I agree he's our best bet.

Beyond that, I think anyone could still be scum or town. And I'm wary of anyone who has been pushing "based on votes, this person is obviously protecting so-and-so", as that's something scum can definitely set up nightly. Based on votes is a good place to look, but more helpful after a red flip.

But I have no idea about EFHW, gkrieg13, Jack Rudd (Galz), Swowl, or WestCoastDidds. And I'm away for a few days for March Break and on mobile only for now. So I'll try to keep up as best I can.

PPE 2

So you are concerned we are gonna lose via your misEX, and it is frustrating because you cannot convince us you are town... and your sole read is "the IC is town"...

Yup, you've got it. If me giving reads is what it would take to convince you (all) I'm town, then game's over. I would find it much easier to give reads if I were scum, especially now near the end. As scum, I could easily give a town read, or even bus a scum read for the long game (look at my scum games... I have no problem bussing when needed).

So you are saying you are incapable of playing a town game and therefore can't be scum?
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1229 on: March 16, 2022, 03:19:03 pm »

I have a deadline on Thursday, then a friend coming into town Friday. I will not be around too much.

Would go for Didds or Jack at this point. I'm glad fang is our IC.

Ok, with many people still putting me on top of their scum list, gkrieg why are you still not wanting to vote for me? Is there anything more than a D1 or D2 gut feel? Or did you just pick a read and stick with it all game for consistency?

I'm ready to vote gkrieg unless he has a valid reason to town-read me against the majority all game.

What I have seen you do as scum, you arenít doing here. As I said earlier, you are scum hunting. You are also not making many posts that donít accomplish anything but attempt to appear townie. Like reminding people of deadlines or asking people to give opinions but not giving your own. Iím on my phone so canít pull examples of all this right now.
I'm wondering what others think of this. I believe others have said the opposite... that I'm not scum hunting, and that I have made useless posts that don't accomplish anything. It sounds to me like you're sticking to a D1 read as scum to not draw attention ro yourself. And you're hoping I'll keep following you, since I have stated a few times that based on confirmation bias, I was town-reading you.
Before seeing what others think of this, I'm wondering what you think of this. Have you been scum hunting? Have you been making useless posts that don't accomplish anything?

I have tried, earlier in the game. But as has been said, I end up on the wrong wagon each day. I've had no decent reads recently, so I feel like I have very little to add. And the last couple days I've been too busy to look in any more detail. We're heading home now, so tomorrow I should be able to look back at some of these vote count posts that have come out.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1230 on: March 16, 2022, 03:25:50 pm »

So you are saying you are incapable of playing a town game and therefore can't be scum?

Relating to how this game is going and what seems to be expected of me to "prove I'm town", yes that's what I'm saying. Again, I'll try to look at things more tomorrow.
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1231 on: March 16, 2022, 04:00:21 pm »

gkrieg, please look at math again carefully. Helplessness here feels like a scum strategy to me.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1232 on: March 16, 2022, 07:27:39 pm »

So far today I have been trying to avoid saying too much of what I think. But it's probably about time I said where I stand on stuff. I'll do that some time tomorrow.
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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1233 on: March 17, 2022, 12:44:33 am »


Possible teams:

gkrieg, Galz/ack, mathdude
Glaz/ack, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Galz/ack, Swowl

You believe it is possible that Math and I are skum together?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1234 on: March 17, 2022, 12:45:39 am »

also how do you come to GK over Math as your top pick?
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1235 on: March 17, 2022, 01:45:03 am »

Vote Count 2.1
WestCoastDidds (3) : Galzria, jotheonah, mathdude
mathdude (1) : infangthief
scolapasta (1) : gkrieg13
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....
Not voting (5) : EFHW, MiX, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds

- Too early in the day, need a red flip to really dig into this.


Vote Count 2.2
mathdude (3) : infangthief, EFHW, Galzria
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, mathdude
scolapasta (2) : gkrieg13, MiX
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....
jotheonah (1) : WestCoastDidds
Not voting (2) : scolapasta, Swowl

- Same as 2.1 notes.


Vote Count 2.3
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Galzria, Swowl
jotheonah (3) : WestCoastDidds, scolapasta, mathdude
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, infangthief
scolapasta (2) : gkrieg13, MiX
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....

Here is a fun one.
- Math wagon. I am sitting with 2 unknowns on Math. One of them (galz) I do not think can possibly be skum if math is skum, and the other is my top TR.
- Joth wagon. Surprise, minimum of 1 skum there.
- and then there is floaty GK... which if they are skum makes kind of perfect sense for a WCD/Math/GK team in this snap shot.


Vote Count 2.4
mathdude (3) : Galzria, Swowl, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) : WestCoastDidds, mathdude, EFHW
gkrieg13 (2) : 2.71828....., scolapasta
scolapasta (2) : gkrieg13, MiX
WestCoastDidds (1) : infangthief

- Skipping to 2.5 for this one.


Vote Count 2.5
mathdude (3) : Galzria, Swowl, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) : WestCoastDidds, EFHW, gkrieg13
gkrieg13 (2) : 2.71828....., scolapasta
scolapasta (2) : MiX, mathdude
WestCoastDidds (1) : infangthief

Only change between 2.4 and 2.5 is Math switching from Joth to Pasta.
Here is the rest of switches between 2.5 and final VC:

scolapasta -> WestCoastDidds
2.71828..... -> WestCoastDidds
jotheonah -> WestCoastDidds
EFHW -> scolapasta
WestCoastDidds -> scolapasta
gkrieg13 -> scolapasta

Vote Count 2.Final
scolapasta (5) : MiX, mathdude, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, gkrieg13
WestCoastDidds (4) : infangthief, scolapasta, 2.71828....., jotheonah
mathdude (2) : Galzria, Swowl

So that is
1. Math switching town to town
2. 3 town players switching to WCD
3. followed by  3 unknown players all switching to pasta (all of whom where previously on Town!Joth).

That leaves with that ridiculous End of Day 2 wagon where everyone is green on Didds. This gives me (well and skum... and Galz/Jack) a unique pov.... we are all absolutely positive that there cannot be less than 2 skum on pasta here.

I need to parse all of that with my Day 1 VCA, but go ahead and have at it from your own povs for now.
I seem to be the only one with time so I will do Day 3 next (not complaining, I actually enjoy doing VCA).
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1236 on: March 17, 2022, 06:33:48 am »

@Jack Rudd, please, what are your thoughts?

I think you said you were reading along already before you subbed in. Surely you had some feelings at the time about whether we were going for the right exiles or not? It would be useful if you could share them.

Or are you having to not share them because suddenly you have discovered that you are scum and your reads would incriminate your scum buddies?

I'd say that so far your involvement matches Memento Mafia when you subbed in as scum.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1237 on: March 17, 2022, 07:10:38 am »

I was reading along with interest, but not with any clue as to who the scum actually were.

For what it's worth, my thoughts from reading the wagon analysis suggest this order of scumminess, from most to least:

Mathdude
WCD
Gkrieg
EFHW
Swowl
Infangthief
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1238 on: March 17, 2022, 07:30:16 am »

I am leaning the most towny on EFHW, so I left her out. My next most town is swowl, so his combos are at the bottom.  There seems to be some degree of confusion about Galz/math and if they could be buddies...I am at work so I haven't had time to really read or think about this but if we take it on face value, then gkrieg is the best choice from my view.

We're not exiling gkrieg today, sorry. Do you think it should be mathdude or Jack Rudd (Galzria)?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1239 on: March 17, 2022, 08:22:52 am »


Possible teams:

gkrieg, Galz/ack, mathdude
Glaz/ack, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Swowl, mathdude
gkrieg, Galz/ack, Swowl

You believe it is possible that Math and I are skum together?

I havenít had time/space to work through the groupings. All Iíve done is make them, so far. Itís spring break so Iím not as free as usual (oddly enough)
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1240 on: March 17, 2022, 08:24:05 am »

also how do you come to GK over Math as your top pick?

Heís not as in dispute as the math/Galz pairingó again that is only from following along. I havenít thought through the tension there yet
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1241 on: March 17, 2022, 12:46:51 pm »

also how do you come to GK over Math as your top pick?

Heís not as in dispute as the math/Galz pairingó again that is only from following along. I havenít thought through the tension there yet

Ok, I get that you're quite keen to exile gkrieg. But if not him then who? mathdude? Jack Rudd?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1242 on: March 17, 2022, 02:13:47 pm »

I am sorry that I haven't been available. I have a big deadline tonight, then a friend comes into town tomorrow - Tuesday.

I will try to reread math when I have some time. It would likely be over the weekend .
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1243 on: March 17, 2022, 02:14:40 pm »

Oh, deadline is Sunday? I may try to get in a tornado reread of him sooner then.
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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1244 on: March 17, 2022, 02:19:23 pm »

I'm calling the team now as WCD, Galz/Jack, and likely Swowl... and that's my order of confidence.  I'm going back now to look for more info.  I'm almost confident about WCD, based on VCA that's been posted so far, and the fact that after Swowl's most recent post leaves him tunneling me instead of WCD is why Swowl is my predicted #3 right now.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1245 on: March 17, 2022, 03:12:02 pm »

Unless someone sees something I don't, I believe it's me or WCD today.  And since it was the distinction between votes for me and votes for WCD (while reading Swowl's posts) that stood out, I'm going to highlight them here (plus the full vote counts for 2.Final and 3.Final).  This is what I based my called scum team on.

Day 1:

Vote Count 1.1 and 1.2:
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX

Vote Count 1.3:
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX

Vote Count 1.4:
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX

Vote Count 1.5:
mathdude (4) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief, jotheonah
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX

Vote Count 1.Final:
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, Galzria

D1 Thoughts:
Not much here.  EFHW and Swowl camping on me for the second half of the day.  Galz joining for the end.

Day 2:

Vote Count 2.1:
WestCoastDidds (3) : Galzria, jotheonah, mathdude
mathdude (1) : infangthief

Vote Count 2.2:
mathdude (3) : infangthief, EFHW, Galzria
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, mathdude

Vote Count 2.3:
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Galzria, Swowl
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, infangthief

Vote Count 2.4 and 2.5:
mathdude (3) : Galzria, Swowl, jotheonah
WestCoastDidds (1) : infangthief

Vote Count 2.Final:
scolapasta (5) : MiX, mathdude, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, gkrieg13
WestCoastDidds (4) : infangthief, scolapasta, 2.71828....., jotheonah
mathdude (2) : Galzria, Swowl

D2 Thoughts:
Galz and Swowl camping on me through the second half of the day this time.  But the big thing here... Town clearly wanted Didds voted out, but Scum didn't.  Are there multiple scum on pasta?  Or did they see enough town votes there that 1 or even 2 of them could stay camped on me?  (I'll address this again in a follow-up post, directed to Swowl).

Day 3:

Vote Count 3.1:
WestCoastDidds (1) : mathdude
mathdude (1) : WestCoastDidds

Vote Count 3.2:
mathdude (4) : WestCoastDidds, MiX, jotheonah, EFHW

Vote Count 3.Final:
MiX (4) : gkrieg13, infangthief, mathdude, WestCoastDidds
mathdude (3) : MiX, jotheonah, EFHW
Not voting (2) : Galzria, Swowl

D3 Thoughts:
From my POV, Scum obviously didn't care who of me or MiX got voted out, as votes consolidated there toward EOD.  So whether scum didn't show up, or was around and didn't care to do much doesn't really matter.  They were happy with either outcome.  And Didds, potentially the only active one toward EOD, was able to do whatever looked most townie.  Making sure a claimed Doctor died because "sheeping fang" is very suspicious.  Maybe it's Didds and EFHW as 2 of the scum, and Didds didn't want the 2 of them both on my wagon if I were to die... I know EFHW isn't on my called scum-team, but Didds is the one I'm most sure about.  We get rid of her today, and we can hopefully start sorting out the other 2 tomorrow.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1246 on: March 17, 2022, 03:24:48 pm »

Vote Count 2.3
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Galzria, Swowl
jotheonah (3) : WestCoastDidds, scolapasta, mathdude
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, infangthief
scolapasta (2) : gkrieg13, MiX
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....

Here is a fun one.
- Math wagon. I am sitting with 2 unknowns on Math. One of them (galz) I do not think can possibly be skum if math is skum, and the other is my top TR.
- Joth wagon. Surprise, minimum of 1 skum there.
- and then there is floaty GK... which if they are skum makes kind of perfect sense for a WCD/Math/GK team in this snap shot.

(snip of 2.4 and 2.5, for brevity)

Vote Count 2.Final
scolapasta (5) : MiX, mathdude, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, gkrieg13
WestCoastDidds (4) : infangthief, scolapasta, 2.71828....., jotheonah
mathdude (2) : Galzria, Swowl

So that is
1. Math switching town to town
2. 3 town players switching to WCD
3. followed by  3 unknown players all switching to pasta (all of whom where previously on Town!Joth).

That leaves with that ridiculous End of Day 2 wagon where everyone is green on Didds. This gives me (well and skum... and Galz/Jack) a unique pov.... we are all absolutely positive that there cannot be less than 2 skum on pasta here.

Re: your comments on 2.3:
When you call EHFW your top townread, I assume you're not accounting for fang.

Then for your final thoughts:
When you see 3 town switching to WCD, and an EOD wagon of all 4 votes on her being town... does that not raise any flags?  And you've posted your (and Galz/Jack's) POV that there are then 2 scum on pasta... but from the rest of us, it is still somewhat possible that both you and Galz/Jack are scum, and there may only be 1 scum on pasta.  However, if that scum is Didds, I find it unlikely that both her partners would just camp out on me... though it was a somewhat late wagon, IIRC.  This does make it feel to me like there are probably 2 scum on pasta (Didds and either EFHW or gkrieg, I guess), plus one of Swowl or Galz/Jack.

So Swowl, what are your thoughts on Galz/Jack?  Could they be scum?  Are they scum with you?  Are you scum?  What do you think of the Didds wagon EOD2 and does this make Didds more likely scum?  Why didn't you comment much on it, other than to point out that there's multiple scum on pasta's wagon (from your POV)?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1247 on: March 17, 2022, 04:08:22 pm »

also how do you come to GK over Math as your top pick?

Heís not as in dispute as the math/Galz pairingó again that is only from following along. I havenít thought through the tension there yet

Ok, I get that you're quite keen to exile gkrieg. But if not him then who? mathdude? Jack Rudd?

Absent today, Iíve found Galz/Jack scummier for the reasons I already said.  In mathís most recent posts, though, he seems to be setting up a me or him scenario. Which I find really strange. Iím not sure that is the decision we are making today and he is speaking as if itís a certainty. Knowing that Iím town makes that super scummy especially with the ďexile her now, figure the rest out tomorrowĒ argument when we all know itís game over if we misexile today.

I know that I tend to find folks aiming for me scummier than they are, but it definitely seems sus to me. But until I read two math posts, Iíd have said Galz/ack, so I think  any e Iíll wait and see ho withers react to math before Iím sold.
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I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1248 on: March 17, 2022, 08:39:30 pm »

Galz certainly blundered when he claimed to be about to do something big and then missed the deadline, and I don't know how to fix it.
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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1249 on: March 18, 2022, 02:01:42 am »

Vote Count 2.3
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Galzria, Swowl
jotheonah (3) : WestCoastDidds, scolapasta, mathdude
WestCoastDidds (2) : jotheonah, infangthief
scolapasta (2) : gkrieg13, MiX
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....

Here is a fun one.
- Math wagon. I am sitting with 2 unknowns on Math. One of them (galz) I do not think can possibly be skum if math is skum, and the other is my top TR.
- Joth wagon. Surprise, minimum of 1 skum there.
- and then there is floaty GK... which if they are skum makes kind of perfect sense for a WCD/Math/GK team in this snap shot.

(snip of 2.4 and 2.5, for brevity)

Vote Count 2.Final
scolapasta (5) : MiX, mathdude, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, gkrieg13
WestCoastDidds (4) : infangthief, scolapasta, 2.71828....., jotheonah
mathdude (2) : Galzria, Swowl

So that is
1. Math switching town to town
2. 3 town players switching to WCD
3. followed by  3 unknown players all switching to pasta (all of whom where previously on Town!Joth).

That leaves with that ridiculous End of Day 2 wagon where everyone is green on Didds. This gives me (well and skum... and Galz/Jack) a unique pov.... we are all absolutely positive that there cannot be less than 2 skum on pasta here.

Re: your comments on 2.3:
When you call EHFW your top townread, I assume you're not accounting for fang.

Then for your final thoughts:
When you see 3 town switching to WCD, and an EOD wagon of all 4 votes on her being town... does that not raise any flags?  And you've posted your (and Galz/Jack's) POV that there are then 2 scum on pasta... but from the rest of us, it is still somewhat possible that both you and Galz/Jack are scum, and there may only be 1 scum on pasta.  However, if that scum is Didds, I find it unlikely that both her partners would just camp out on me... though it was a somewhat late wagon, IIRC.  This does make it feel to me like there are probably 2 scum on pasta (Didds and either EFHW or gkrieg, I guess), plus one of Swowl or Galz/Jack.

So Swowl, what are your thoughts on Galz/Jack?  Could they be scum?  Are they scum with you?  Are you scum?  What do you think of the Didds wagon EOD2 and does this make Didds more likely scum?  Why didn't you comment much on it, other than to point out that there's multiple scum on pasta's wagon (from your POV)?

you successfully asked like 10 things I already answered.
minus the Didds wagon - which I thought was implied.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
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