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Author Topic: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 107366 times)

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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1200 on: March 15, 2022, 07:15:51 pm »

Purely from a setup and possible exlo perspective, is it worth a massclaim? I'm thinking no, but wondering what other thoughts are. Don't give away anything useful to scum in stating your opinion.
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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1201 on: March 15, 2022, 09:57:14 pm »

Honestly, I have no idea where we're at. I have no idea how to convince people I'm not scum. But I'm not, and the game ends today if we can't sort this out.

Fang is the only verifiable role so far. It seems that there are 8 votes, but with 7 players we only need 4 to exile. Is there any other way this works other than a double-voter? And absent a counter-claim, I agree he's our best bet.

Beyond that, I think anyone could still be scum or town. And I'm wary of anyone who has been pushing "based on votes, this person is obviously protecting so-and-so", as that's something scum can definitely set up nightly. Based on votes is a good place to look, but more helpful after a red flip.

But I have no idea about EFHW, gkrieg13, Jack Rudd (Galz), Swowl, or WestCoastDidds. And I'm away for a few days for March Break and on mobile only for now. So I'll try to keep up as best I can.

PPE 2

So you are concerned we are gonna lose via your misEX, and it is frustrating because you cannot convince us you are town... and your sole read is "the IC is town"...
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1202 on: March 15, 2022, 10:26:46 pm »

This is something like my fourth Mafia game, I think. BSG 1&2, where I was in from the start, and some other game where I subbed in and was exiled that turn. This is the first time I've been town.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1203 on: March 15, 2022, 10:55:25 pm »

would love to hear from math and didds regarding who they think could be skum. preferably in that order.
So were the answers helpful?
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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1204 on: March 16, 2022, 01:48:04 am »

would love to hear from math and didds regarding who they think could be skum. preferably in that order.
So were the answers helpful?

I mean literally?

Math - no, there was no answer. well there "literally was"... but no information really.

WCD - Yeah it helped. I am writing up a VCA that will explain thoughts further... but essentially, she skum reads where it makes sense to skum read and town reads where it makes sense to town read.
There is the weird EFHW read as town core, but I like agree with that part personally and it checks out if the skum reads are true, so yeah. Helpful. will follow up shortly.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1205 on: March 16, 2022, 02:51:55 am »

Vote Count 1.4
2.71828..... (3) : Galzria, Dylan32, jotheonah
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief
Dylan32 (3) : faust, WestCoastDidds, 2.71828.....
MiX (2) : gkrieg13, mathdude
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX
Not voting (1) : scolapasta


mathdude -> Dylan32
jotheonah -> mathdude
gkrieg13 -> Dylan32
WestCoastDidds -> scolapasta
Galzria -> mathdude
MiX -> 2.71828.....
jotheonah -> 2.71828.....
infangthief -> 2.71828.....

WestCoastDidds -> Dylan32


Vote Count 1.Final
Dylan32 (5) : faust, 2.71828....., mathdude, gkrieg13, WestCoastDidds
2.71828..... (4) : Dylan32, MiX, jotheonah, infangthief
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, Galzria
Not voting (1) : scolapasta

So this is the end of D1.
We have the following moves take place (removing known town moves):

Math moves from Town!MiX to Town!Dylan
GK moves from Town!MiX to Town!Dylan
WCD moves from Town!Dylan to Town!Pasta, and then back to Town!Dylan
Galz/JackRudd moves from Town!E to Math

At that point, this is what it looks like:
mathdude (5) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief, jotheonah, Galzria
Dylan32 (5) : faust, WestCoastDidds, 2.71828....., mathdude, gkrieg13
2.71828..... (1) : Dylan32
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX
Not voting (1) : scolapasta

1. Something to take away from this that we could not prior to Joth and Fang being colored in, is that Galz chose to check in and vote for Math here, tying Math for the leading wagon. On Day 1... if he is skum... and even IF both his team mates are within wcd/math/gk.. I find that move very unlikely now. becausseeee...

2. Becauseeeee... we can now color in people and know that there are 4 total moves left in the day. The next 3 to happen are all Town players moving to Town E!. So, whereas prior I was viewing this differently (more vaugely to be precise), now we know to a certainty he "got no help" if he were to be skum here. So I have to be honest... Really really really tossing the Galz!Math team out the window here. I am being a little reads based here, just because I mean I can see Galz playing this bus I guess... but not in a world where he then just fucks off for the next 2 weeks.

3. When WCD moved, she did inherently save Math. The fact that they are both not flipped makes my head hurt for that situation.


Summary:
1. I don't think it can be Math and Galz.
2. I do think it is possible that it could be WCD and Math... but that would inherently make EFHW the last skum... which I am not a super fan of at this point... or all un colored players on the day 1 wagon are skum.... which would also be weird.
3. And to be fair... it would be possible for it to be GK/WCD/Galz.

All of the Summary is also based of of my individual reads.

Read at your own risk - will compile the other days and see where things sit tonight/tomorrow.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1206 on: March 16, 2022, 04:23:44 am »

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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1207 on: March 16, 2022, 06:17:44 am »

Good work there, Swowl. I'll try to come up with my own conclusions when all of those are up.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1208 on: March 16, 2022, 06:28:29 am »

Good work there, Swowl. I'll try to come up with my own conclusions when all of those are up.
I don't think there's any need to wait for Swowl to do all the hard work.

Please do give us your thoughts on the rest of the thread. Not just wagon analysis.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1209 on: March 16, 2022, 07:06:10 am »

I've not got a lot. I don't really know how to make a read in this game.

Mathdude's answer to the last question did look a bit suspicious, though whether that's because he's scum, because he's a relatively new player, or because all his reads have turned out wrong and he doesn't know what to do, I don't know.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1210 on: March 16, 2022, 07:06:48 am »

Looks like my ability to close tags is nearly as good as my ability to read people.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1211 on: March 16, 2022, 07:22:21 am »

I've not got a lot. I don't really know how to make a read in this game.

Mathdude's answer to the last question did look a bit suspicious, though whether that's because he's scum, because he's a relatively new player, or because all his reads have turned out wrong and he doesn't know what to do, I don't know.
Have all his reads turned out wrong?
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1212 on: March 16, 2022, 07:44:55 am »

This is something like my fourth Mafia game, I think. BSG 1&2, where I was in from the start, and some other game where I subbed in and was exiled that turn. This is the first time I've been town.
Wow, scum 3 out of 3, that's harsh. I thought I had it bad being scum 2 out of 4 prior to this game.

I've just found the other game where you subbed in, Memento Mafia, and that was a sub for Galzria again. I'll see if I can find time to have a look through those three games.

For this game, I guess you kind of knew that it was Galzria you'd be subbing in for. Did you think you were subbing in to a town or scum role?
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1213 on: March 16, 2022, 07:53:21 am »

@Swowl, how would a math/Didds team mke me the third scum?

Unrelated,  there is a scum narrative for Galz hanging out on math. It spreads out the scum vote and keeps options open. Agree that a Galz/math team seems almost impossible.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1214 on: March 16, 2022, 08:02:45 am »

Did you think you were subbing in to a town or scum role?
Town. I'd have expected a scum role to be a bit more active than Galzria actually was.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1215 on: March 16, 2022, 08:05:01 am »

I've not got a lot. I don't really know how to make a read in this game.

Mathdude's answer to the last question did look a bit suspicious, though whether that's because he's scum, because he's a relatively new player, or because all his reads have turned out wrong and he doesn't know what to do, I don't know.
Have all his reads turned out wrong?
Well, all his final votes have been for someone who turned out to be Town. Which could be bad luck, or it could be scum play.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1216 on: March 16, 2022, 08:20:12 am »

Did you think you were subbing in to a town or scum role?
Town. I'd have expected a scum role to be a bit more active than Galzria actually was.
That's interesting, because I have just now been having a read of Memento Mafia.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1217 on: March 16, 2022, 09:04:14 am »

Did you think you were subbing in to a town or scum role?
Town. I'd have expected a scum role to be a bit more active than Galzria actually was.
That's interesting, because I have just now been having a read of Memento Mafia.
Hah, yes, I remember that now. Everyone got very cross with Galzria about that.
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Centuries later, archaeologists discover the remains of your ancient civilization.

Evidence of thriving towns, Pottery, roads, and a centralized government amaze the startled scientists.

Finally, they come upon a stone tablet, which contains but one mysterious phrase!

'ISOTROPIC WILL RETURN!'

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1218 on: March 16, 2022, 09:43:01 am »

But in all reality, Galz is the scummiest
Didds, when and why did you come to this conclusion?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1219 on: March 16, 2022, 09:52:09 am »

But in all reality, Galz is the scummiest
Didds, when and why did you come to this conclusion?

It was towards the end of the Day, and i came to the conclusion because by that point I thought it was increasingly scummy to say that a big wall post is coming, hold tight and then no-show. It felt calculated to me, especially with the plurality exile. He could say he was coming, not answer questions, etc. and flatten the discussion and then not vote, or park on an empty wagon, because he didn’t have to vote to get town exiled.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1220 on: March 16, 2022, 10:20:02 am »

I have a deadline on Thursday, then a friend coming into town Friday. I will not be around too much.

Would go for Didds or Jack at this point. I'm glad fang is our IC.

Ok, with many people still putting me on top of their scum list, gkrieg why are you still not wanting to vote for me? Is there anything more than a D1 or D2 gut feel? Or did you just pick a read and stick with it all game for consistency?

I'm ready to vote gkrieg unless he has a valid reason to town-read me against the majority all game.

What I have seen you do as scum, you aren’t doing here. As I said earlier, you are scum hunting. You are also not making many posts that don’t accomplish anything but attempt to appear townie. Like reminding people of deadlines or asking people to give opinions but not giving your own. I’m on my phone so can’t pull examples of all this right now.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1221 on: March 16, 2022, 10:24:46 am »

I'm glad fang is our IC.
Why?

I had been mostly town reading you, but you were on my list of people I need to read again, and now I don’t have to do that. You have also been one of the most active players, and I think you’ve been asking good questions.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1222 on: March 16, 2022, 11:34:05 am »

Honestly, I have no idea where we're at. I have no idea how to convince people I'm not scum. But I'm not, and the game ends today if we can't sort this out.

Fang is the only verifiable role so far. It seems that there are 8 votes, but with 7 players we only need 4 to exile. Is there any other way this works other than a double-voter? And absent a counter-claim, I agree he's our best bet.

Beyond that, I think anyone could still be scum or town. And I'm wary of anyone who has been pushing "based on votes, this person is obviously protecting so-and-so", as that's something scum can definitely set up nightly. Based on votes is a good place to look, but more helpful after a red flip.

But I have no idea about EFHW, gkrieg13, Jack Rudd (Galz), Swowl, or WestCoastDidds. And I'm away for a few days for March Break and on mobile only for now. So I'll try to keep up as best I can.

PPE 2

So you are concerned we are gonna lose via your misEX, and it is frustrating because you cannot convince us you are town... and your sole read is "the IC is town"...

Yup, you've got it. If me giving reads is what it would take to convince you (all) I'm town, then game's over. I would find it much easier to give reads if I were scum, especially now near the end. As scum, I could easily give a town read, or even bus a scum read for the long game (look at my scum games... I have no problem bussing when needed).
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1223 on: March 16, 2022, 11:36:46 am »

I've not got a lot. I don't really know how to make a read in this game.

Mathdude's answer to the last question did look a bit suspicious, though whether that's because he's scum, because he's a relatively new player, or because all his reads have turned out wrong and he doesn't know what to do, I don't know.

It's not that all my reads have necessarily turned out wrong. Jury is still out on MiX and Didds from my earlier reads, and gkrieg now. But yes I believe I've ended up on town at EoD each time and that's frustrating.
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mathdude

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1224 on: March 16, 2022, 11:41:14 am »

I have a deadline on Thursday, then a friend coming into town Friday. I will not be around too much.

Would go for Didds or Jack at this point. I'm glad fang is our IC.

Ok, with many people still putting me on top of their scum list, gkrieg why are you still not wanting to vote for me? Is there anything more than a D1 or D2 gut feel? Or did you just pick a read and stick with it all game for consistency?

I'm ready to vote gkrieg unless he has a valid reason to town-read me against the majority all game.

What I have seen you do as scum, you aren’t doing here. As I said earlier, you are scum hunting. You are also not making many posts that don’t accomplish anything but attempt to appear townie. Like reminding people of deadlines or asking people to give opinions but not giving your own. I’m on my phone so can’t pull examples of all this right now.
I'm wondering what others think of this. I believe others have said the opposite... that I'm not scum hunting, and that I have made useless posts that don't accomplish anything. It sounds to me like you're sticking to a D1 read as scum to not draw attention ro yourself. And you're hoping I'll keep following you, since I have stated a few times that based on confirmation bias, I was town-reading you.
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