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Author Topic: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 108736 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1050 on: March 10, 2022, 01:13:29 pm »

The scum team being Didds/math/gkrieg makes too much sense. Just reading VCA it's incredibly hard not to see a cohesive team of 3 people helping each other stay alive. You even have math voting Didds early D2 and then jumping off. I would provide to vote counts saying that this is the team, but it's really all of them. If you simply look at the list of votes D2, you see those 3 voting for other people while other people voting for those 3.

I won't vote because I don't know which one of these is 100% scum, but right now I'm having a hard time thinking about this game without thinking this is the scum team.

As Didds partner, I would never try to get her put to X-1 early in the day, or being annoyed that many people were scumreading her without voting.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1051 on: March 10, 2022, 01:22:21 pm »

MiX - finding myself in the same spot. However, this is end of Day 1, which where I am having trouble believing that that exact team is correct.

Vote Count 1.Final
Dylan32 (5) : faust, 2.71828....., mathdude, gkrieg13, WestCoastDidds
2.71828..... (4) : Dylan32, MiX, jotheonah, infangthief
mathdude (3) : EFHW, Swowl, Galzria
Not voting (1) : scolapasta

Shortly before the EOD wagon, couple things to note:

WCD - Her voting pattern that day, to entirety, was Dylan->Pasta->Dylan. At the time she went back to Dylan, she did so to be the tie breaking vote vs. E! But... E! was town.
This snap shot of events right here, has me at a hold up. If the team in question is MD, GK, WCD... then what? They chose to kill faust AND THEN E! guaranteeing if we were to exile ANYONE remaining on that wagon we find skum? That seems.. not good. Also, not needed. Didds in that spot could of just done nothing or could of spaced out onto the E! wagon.
If anything.. I would say there was quite some time between WCD being the final vote of the day and the day actually ending, she could of also voted for Math. But obviously in a world where it is WCD!Math!X... never going to do that. Math is on Dylan, I think X was on E! (because there is no way Efoo, or especially Galz, would be on Math if they were team mates at this point).

TLDR; Day 1 Didds is not conducive of a WCD/GK/Math team. However, I do think it could be in favor of a Math!Didds team.
*Counter argument to my own thought* - You would assume that if this were true, then, given the night kill selection they would be pushing GK. So that is weird. Hm. Turns out I need to think about this more actually. I stand by the team call not being likely though.

Did everyone just skip this post?

Also Swowl, why would they be pushing me? Wouldn't they want to keep me unflipped to not end up in the situation they are in?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1052 on: March 10, 2022, 01:22:56 pm »

Oh, I just realized you mean they would be pushing me right now.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1053 on: March 10, 2022, 01:26:13 pm »

MiX, what do you think about the EoD1 vote count that Swowl points out?
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MiX

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1054 on: March 10, 2022, 02:10:17 pm »

MiX, what do you think about the EoD1 vote count that Swowl points out?

I agree that the team being exactly Didds/math/gkrieg does not work (perfectly, at least), but I think we flip scum today if we assume it does. Well, at least I think there's 2 scum in that list, or at the very least we can exile a scum in there. And I agree with his math/Didds call, of course.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1055 on: March 10, 2022, 02:32:40 pm »

Fang, this is the post that you want a response to?

I'd like to understand mathdude's complete turnaround on Didds in #776.

Swowl asked it well just afterwards:
3. How does WCD move into your "will not vote" category from "voting didds" if you "do not read them as more towny than before?"... when you were voting them?
... but got no answer as far as I can see.

I asked again later, and the best answer I got was that exiling scola would be more informative. Which seemed unlikely.

So... what's the real reason mathdude?

I think I know the real reason. (It's that they're scum partners together).

Oh no, you've caught us! Now who is the 3rd?

1. Really though... Didds, I do hope you're town, even though I still think you're somewhat scummy. Because if you're scum, and people stick with this pairing, then I think you've won the game.  (If they exile me, see I'm town, then they'll IC you... if they exile you and see you're scum, then they'll misexile me).

2. But to address the original question from fang today (and commenting about fang and Swowl questions yesterday)... it feels like you think I had a hard scum-read of Didds D1 and switched to strongly town-reading her D2. Go read again... I think you're trying to create a connection that isn't there, so you're stretching things.

3. D1 I believe I was mostly scum-reading MiX and e, but not likely together. But I got a sense that Didds and MiX were a bit partner-y so she was someone I was leery on as well. Then start of D2, others seemed to jump on Didds and I had no other reads at the very start of the day (don't remember if I actually voted or not).

4. But as D2 went on, I got more scum pings from joth and scola (in the few posts he did make)... so they both jumped ahead of Didds (who hadn't done anything to change my read on her of "sort of scummy"). And toward the end of D2, with the strong opinions on the others, I thought it would be more useful if scola or joth flipped scum than if Didds did  (all 3 of which I thought was still a good possibility).

I don't really have a lot to say, thus my non-response. By paragraph

1. Um, I am town, so no worries. Trying to tie my flip with his is interesting since to me, that is trying to tie my green-ness with his alighnment.  If I get exiled, don't let him get away with it.

2. I guess I agree. There is no connection between us.

3. Oh wait.... this is interesting. Thanks for having me reread. The first part... I don't see how MiX and I are being partner-y. The game where MiX and I were partners, it looked nothing like this. But math not knowing he voted for me on D2?  What?!  His "digging a hole comment" had me on tilt for a good long while.  And then there was the mega post that EFHW called somewhat mean (I agree) at #628 http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=21053.msg886800#msg886800 so that he didn't have a read and if he had he didn't really act on it is really disingenuous.

4. I agree those people were all scummier than me.

PPE:1
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1056 on: March 10, 2022, 04:53:20 pm »

Thank you Didds.

And I thought you would find his 3rd paragraph interesting. Enough skin in the game, eh?

There are a few people wanting a mathdude + Didds team. Day 2 you gave some reasons why Didds+Mix didn't make sense - can you give any reasons why Didds+mathdude doesn't make sense?
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EFHW

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1057 on: March 10, 2022, 05:03:37 pm »

And unvote

Why this unvote?
Because I can see various possible teams and am not at all sure at the moment who I suspect most. I hope to be more sure soon.

Didds, please let me know what you think of mathdude's post #988.

Still too early to be looking for teams.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1058 on: March 10, 2022, 05:21:19 pm »

I am adding fang to my town core.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1059 on: March 10, 2022, 05:30:41 pm »

I am adding fang to my town core.
I don't think that has ever happened before.

Still, any reason why we shouldn't suspect you and mathdude to be partners?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1060 on: March 10, 2022, 05:40:32 pm »

I don’t vote for my partners. Pretty much, ever.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1061 on: March 10, 2022, 05:41:45 pm »

Fang, this is the post that you want a response to?

I'd like to understand mathdude's complete turnaround on Didds in #776.

Swowl asked it well just afterwards:
3. How does WCD move into your "will not vote" category from "voting didds" if you "do not read them as more towny than before?"... when you were voting them?
... but got no answer as far as I can see.

I asked again later, and the best answer I got was that exiling scola would be more informative. Which seemed unlikely.

So... what's the real reason mathdude?

I think I know the real reason. (It's that they're scum partners together).

Oh no, you've caught us! Now who is the 3rd?

1. Really though... Didds, I do hope you're town, even though I still think you're somewhat scummy. Because if you're scum, and people stick with this pairing, then I think you've won the game.  (If they exile me, see I'm town, then they'll IC you... if they exile you and see you're scum, then they'll misexile me).

2. But to address the original question from fang today (and commenting about fang and Swowl questions yesterday)... it feels like you think I had a hard scum-read of Didds D1 and switched to strongly town-reading her D2. Go read again... I think you're trying to create a connection that isn't there, so you're stretching things.

3. D1 I believe I was mostly scum-reading MiX and e, but not likely together. But I got a sense that Didds and MiX were a bit partner-y so she was someone I was leery on as well. Then start of D2, others seemed to jump on Didds and I had no other reads at the very start of the day (don't remember if I actually voted or not).

4. But as D2 went on, I got more scum pings from joth and scola (in the few posts he did make)... so they both jumped ahead of Didds (who hadn't done anything to change my read on her of "sort of scummy"). And toward the end of D2, with the strong opinions on the others, I thought it would be more useful if scola or joth flipped scum than if Didds did  (all 3 of which I thought was still a good possibility).

I don't really have a lot to say, thus my non-response. By paragraph

1. Um, I am town, so no worries. Trying to tie my flip with his is interesting since to me, that is trying to tie my green-ness with his alighnment.  If I get exiled, don't let him get away with it.

2. I guess I agree. There is no connection between us.

3. Oh wait.... this is interesting. Thanks for having me reread. The first part... I don't see how MiX and I are being partner-y. The game where MiX and I were partners, it looked nothing like this. But math not knowing he voted for me on D2?  What?!  His "digging a hole comment" had me on tilt for a good long while.  And then there was the mega post that EFHW called somewhat mean (I agree) at #628 http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=21053.msg886800#msg886800 so that he didn't have a read and if he had he didn't really act on it is really disingenuous.

4. I agree those people were all scummier than me.

PPE:1

Y’all should go back and read this post that fang singled out in the context of his D2 (linked in my response.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1062 on: March 10, 2022, 06:13:48 pm »

Right. I'm fairly sure Didds and mathdude are not partners.

Look at this vote count from near the end of day 1:
Quote
Vote Count 1.5
A chef's hat has a number of pleats equal to the number of ways that chef can cook eggs.[/color][/center]
mathdude (4) : EFHW, Swowl, infangthief, jotheonah
Dylan32 (4) : faust, 2.71828....., mathdude, gkrieg13
2.71828..... (2) : Galzria, Dylan32
WestCoastDidds (1) : MiX
scolapasta (1) : WestCoastDidds
 
Not voting (1) : scolapasta
 
Currently, mathdude is set to be exiled! Day 1 ends February 22, 2022, 09:00:00 am your time (the time in the upper right hand corner of your page). That's just under 8½ hours from now.

The last change before that vote count was Didds moving from Dylan to scolapasta. That changed the leading wagon from Dylan (5) to a tie between mathdude and Dylan (4 each). Technically mathdude became the leading wagon, but enough people were unaware of how tiebreaking worked that let's just say they were tied.

So that vote change jeopardises mathdude.
Seems unlikely that Didds would do that to her scum partner.
But more than that, she would surely be aware of the wagon on her scum partner, or even if by some miracle she was unaware of that, surely mathdude lets her know N1 how close she came to causing his exile. You know, "lucky we got away with that, but that'll actually be helpful later to prove we're not linked".

So now, asking Didds if there's any reason she and mathdude can't be partners, surely she would have mentioned that vote move day 1, if she was aware of it. But she didn't.

So I'm sold on them not being partners.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1063 on: March 10, 2022, 06:17:46 pm »

So I'm fairly sure I want to vote mathdude, but it is late here and I'm probably being influenced by Didds' recent flattery/buddying, so I'll try to do an objective Didds re-read in the morning.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1064 on: March 10, 2022, 08:08:08 pm »

So I'm fairly sure I want to vote mathdude, but it is late here and I'm probably being influenced by Didds' recent flattery/buddying, so I'll try to do an objective Didds re-read in the morning.

Eh… don’t worry too much. I’m a friend to all! It’s kind of my thing.
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Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1065 on: March 10, 2022, 09:02:06 pm »

Right. I'm fairly sure Didds and mathdude are not partners.

So I'm sold on them not being partners.

So kinda…
WCD moves the way you say… but with like nearly half a day left to go still. So math was never in danger of actually being the exile - as he was only like X-4.

Also also…. She ended up back on Dylan eod to swing that wagon
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1066 on: March 10, 2022, 09:03:27 pm »

I will however give you that it seems like an unnecessary amount of movement… which is interesting. And works against the partner pairing.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Galzria

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1067 on: March 10, 2022, 09:36:22 pm »

Wall Posts inc tonight when I’m off mobile - finished this morning
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1068 on: March 11, 2022, 04:02:55 am »

Wall Posts inc tonight when I’m off mobile - finished this morning
Are we getting this?

I've reread Didds and happy with her being town.

vote: Galzria seems like a good place to be while I go and reread mathdude.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1069 on: March 11, 2022, 06:02:18 am »

I haven't reread mathdude yet, but I think where I'm at is:

Scummiest: mathdude, MiX, Galzria
Towniest: EFHW, Swowl
Which leaves in the middle: gkrieg, joth, Didds
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1070 on: March 11, 2022, 09:32:05 am »

Deadline is 23.5 hours away….

WestCoastDidds (1) : mathdude
Galzria (2) : EFHW, fang
mathdude (1) : WestCoastDidds
 
Not voting (6) : Galzria, gkrieg13, jotheonah, MiX, Swowl
Day 3 ends March 12, 2022, 09:00:00 am your time.
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MiX

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1071 on: March 11, 2022, 09:32:49 am »

Vote: math
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1072 on: March 11, 2022, 09:33:45 am »

For anyone waiting to share their reads or do a reread… the time has come. LFG.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1073 on: March 11, 2022, 10:09:13 am »

So I've read most of mathdude again, and I still think most likely scum.

But I also do not want to let Galzria slide by without his promised contribution. I recall a game I spectated recently in which Galzria kept promising stuff and leaving it later and later in the day, and he was scum, exiled day 1. This feels similar.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1074 on: March 11, 2022, 10:12:20 am »

Vote: MiX
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