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Author Topic: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 109993 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #650 on: February 25, 2022, 06:14:40 pm »

yeah, gkrieg's suggestion I vote WCD already to X-1 seems sketch.

WCD, what's your reasoning for thinking I'm scum? Is it just my lack of posting D1?

I mean, we just came out of a game where we didn't exile 2 of the 3 days, so scum won flawlessly. And mostly, it was because of people not wanting to get wagons going early in the day.

Early wagons at X-1 cause a ton more discussion than X-2 wagons, and if you put X-1 in bold, derphammers are incredibly unlikely.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #651 on: February 25, 2022, 06:17:22 pm »

Looking at the wagons, I see a few options.

If e is town:
  • Scum has no real reason to see either exile happen, so I would expect they would hang back, or try to spread out onto different wagons.

If e is scum:
  • Scum is likely late on Dylan's wagon, like WCD or mathdude.
  • Joth expertly moved exiles to ensure Dylan was exiled.

To me, it looked more like e is town, which also plays into my slight townread on mathdude, and my perception of how joth plays.

I think we should probably look at the mathdude wagon + scola for scum today.

So ifsofactso - you are leaning all town wagons eod1?

Yes. I think it is unlikely that e is scum, based on EOD1, and I have a slight town read on mathdude.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #652 on: February 25, 2022, 06:19:19 pm »

I disagree with gkrieg here. It seems like an unnecessary risk to encourage X-1s so early. But I can see why he'd want to see a scola vote given how scummy scola has been so far.

It really is twofold. The main part of it is that scola has not really voted yet. The other part of it is a systemic f.ds thing.
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Galzria

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #653 on: February 25, 2022, 06:23:37 pm »

You say you had found faust more grumpy/adament/cranky (which is town!faust).

I was *highly* suspicious of faust when he didn’t rage!vote my Mathdude vote towards the end of the day (his response is at #465). I had read and caught up, analyzed my preference to Wagon, etc. A small part of my singular vote after the prod was to see how faust reacted.

What’s your take on his reaction to my vote (but not really post)?

So did you not think that Math was the best of the options? like did you forego voting your best skum read just to get a reaction from faust by voting math?

Does “a small part of my singular vote” read “just to get a reaction from” to you?

As stated, I had caught up at that time. I had looked at the wagons, looked at the arguments for each of the wagons, looked at who was on all of the wagons, and I made my decision that given less than 8 hours to deadline, with the vote at Dylan (4), Math (4), and 2.718 (2) (myself included), I preferred a math Exile to Dylan, so I voted there. It was after 10:00pm my time, the 2.718 wagon didn’t look like it was coming back, and I was likely to be able to contribute anything in the morning.

The choice to post vote itself, as a singularity, with nothing else attached, was a direct attempt on my part to get a read on faust - because I feel like when he’s town he’s much more likely to rage!vote me there (even if just done to express his frustration before moving his vote back to where he wants it). The fact that he did NOT do that left me suspicious of him.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #654 on: February 25, 2022, 06:24:55 pm »

You say you had found faust more grumpy/adament/cranky (which is town!faust).

I was *highly* suspicious of faust when he didn’t rage!vote my Mathdude vote towards the end of the day (his response is at #465). I had read and caught up, analyzed my preference to Wagon, etc. A small part of my singular vote after the prod was to see how faust reacted.

What’s your take on his reaction to my vote (but not really post)?

So did you not think that Math was the best of the options? like did you forego voting your best skum read just to get a reaction from faust by voting math?

Does “a small part of my singular vote” read “just to get a reaction from” to you?

As stated, I had caught up at that time. I had looked at the wagons, looked at the arguments for each of the wagons, looked at who was on all of the wagons, and I made my decision that given less than 8 hours to deadline, with the vote at Dylan (4), Math (4), and 2.718 (2) (myself included), I preferred a math Exile to Dylan, so I voted there. It was after 10:00pm my time, the 2.718 wagon didn’t look like it was coming back, and I was UNlikely to be able to contribute anything in the morning.

The choice to post vote itself, as a singularity, with nothing else attached, was a direct attempt on my part to get a read on faust - because I feel like when he’s town he’s much more likely to rage!vote me there (even if just done to express his frustration before moving his vote back to where he wants it). The fact that he did NOT do that left me suspicious of him.

EBWOP
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #655 on: February 25, 2022, 07:11:38 pm »

I could see a Didds/MiX/X team

This is a good team call, since I feel like defending Didds now.

Does anyone think both e and Didds can be town?

For Galz to be right, I’d have to have voted to protect e. So, the better question is are both e and I scum together?

you forgot to include the possibility that E! could be skum and you could be town...
I mean so did Galz... but he is pushing you specifically.

Yes, obviously he could be scum even if I am town.  I was more expressing bafflement about Glaz's artificial choice that I was either protecting e or hammering e. That doesn't didn't hold up for lots of reasons to me, since the outcome would have been the same even if I had never left Scola.  my hope had been to get folks out of the lull of activity, but it didn't work. Nothing changed and no one committed to anything different. Too little, too late, I guess.  Even if I had voted for mathdude, nothing would have changed. Literally the only thing that could have created change was voting for e, and Galz wants me to defend not voting for him when no one else is being held to that standard.
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classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

J Reggie

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #656 on: February 25, 2022, 08:57:53 pm »

Vote Count 2.1
Cassowary eggs have the thickest shells of any bird, more than half a centimeter thick!
WestCoastDidds (3) : Galzria, jotheonah, mathdude
mathdude (1) : infangthief
scolapasta (1) : gkrieg13
Swowl (1) : 2.71828.....
 
Not voting (5) : EFHW, MiX, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
 
Currently, WestCoastDidds is set to be exiled!  Day 1 ends at March 03, 2022, 09:00:00 am your time.

Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #657 on: February 25, 2022, 10:34:36 pm »

You say you had found faust more grumpy/adament/cranky (which is town!faust).

I was *highly* suspicious of faust when he didn’t rage!vote my Mathdude vote towards the end of the day (his response is at #465). I had read and caught up, analyzed my preference to Wagon, etc. A small part of my singular vote after the prod was to see how faust reacted.

What’s your take on his reaction to my vote (but not really post)?

So did you not think that Math was the best of the options? like did you forego voting your best skum read just to get a reaction from faust by voting math?

Does “a small part of my singular vote” read “just to get a reaction from” to you?

I mean I think it is a fair question - I get what you are saying, and then obviously that answers my question…. But I was more like “did you come back and hate all the options so vote math bc faust reaction makes it worth something? Or did you actually think math was a good vote”

Pretty clear now. Probably I could of phrased the question better and saved you a paragraph
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #658 on: February 25, 2022, 10:45:30 pm »

People keep saying “if i had changed my vote, or voted differently, it wouldn’t of mattered”.

Want to point out, since we gotta keep going with the plurality thing, that this is not accurate. I mean, it could be, but we don’t know it.

Pretty sure everyone is smart enough to realize this, but like butterfly effect shit to right?
I’m not saying everyone should hop around all fucking mix style, but also at least two people have said “it wouldn’t of mattered” - and there is no way to know that. It could of mattered, if you need 2 votes to matter and there are two people thinking “it doesn’t matter” then the first voter certainly matters.

I don’t actually think i find any of the “wouldn’t matter” things so far are skummy - but also it should be noted so that it can not be used as a potential smoke shield.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #659 on: February 26, 2022, 08:44:10 am »

I’m not saying everyone should hop around all fucking mix style,

That right there is pure gold!
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classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #660 on: February 26, 2022, 03:10:54 pm »

Right, time to do some catching up.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #661 on: February 26, 2022, 03:14:22 pm »

First of all, it's kind of counterintuitive that my switching from mathdude to e made Dylan the exile. I didn't want Dylan to be the exile, as I said several times. I wanted e. e is who I was voting for most of the day. I put my vote back where I really wanted it to be, in the hopes that two more people would join me and I would get my ideal exile instead of my second-favorite. And instead, I got my least-favorite, because of a quirk of the rules.

But I didn't (and don't) particularly think mathdude is scum. So I don't really feel bad about it either way.

Wow. A fairly thorough response. Were you expecting to come under pressure for that today?

Also, Dylan was exiled because of "a quirk of the rules"?? Final vote count was Dylan 5, e 4, mathdude 3. That would be a Dylan exile with most rulesets I think.
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scolapasta

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #662 on: February 26, 2022, 03:18:25 pm »

yeah, gkrieg's suggestion I vote WCD already to X-1 seems sketch.

WCD, what's your reasoning for thinking I'm scum? Is it just my lack of posting D1?

I mean, we just came out of a game where we didn't exile 2 of the 3 days, so scum won flawlessly. And mostly, it was because of people not wanting to get wagons going early in the day.

Early wagons at X-1 cause a ton more discussion than X-2 wagons, and if you put X-1 in bold, derphammers are incredibly unlikely.

Sure but in plurality vote, there isn't the trial of no exile. That's a huge difference.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #663 on: February 26, 2022, 03:19:43 pm »

Also, it wouldn't have affected the outcome anyway.

I want to know why scola didn't vote at all.

Wouldn't have affected the outcome?!!!! What?!

Before you moved your vote, mathdude was on 5, Dylan on 4. mathdude was set to be exiled, unless Dylan (or someone else) reached 6 votes. Didds' move back to Dylan later would not have been enough. I mean obviously we don't know for sure what everyone would have done if votes had been in different places, but...
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #664 on: February 26, 2022, 03:25:49 pm »

I also am getting strong vibes that both joth and fang are town, which means the final wagon against me D1 was all town or MiX is scum. Or I am wrong about joth/fang
Doesn't seem that unlikely that it could be all town - faust had been quite critical of your wagon and I think it is a brave scum player who goes against faust. Or actually, joth said something about doing things just because faust said he shouldn't. Maybe he'd do that as either alignment?
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #665 on: February 26, 2022, 03:28:47 pm »

As much as I like the metaphor of the nest, I am not at all fond of the idea that anyone could be pushed out of the nest to splat on the sidewalk!

I could see a Didds/MiX/X team

you doing the good drugs? that makes no sense to me at all.
I want to ask, why? I mean, if you are town then you don't need to say this, you just know that it's wrong. Weird (for you, I think?) to say "that makes no sense". Someone's probably already asked why, I'll read on.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #666 on: February 26, 2022, 03:32:25 pm »

I can think of a reason faust might have died, but not one I'd be so certain of as MiX is. Scum might have had a reason to want to nk  on wagon, like they could have all been off wagon and didn't want to narrow down that field. Or they want to make it look like they were all off wagon. That seems less likely to me.
Am also intrigued by MiX's "insight". But isn't MiX always more certain of things than anyone else? But I suspect MiX's reason is not just about on-wagon/off-wagon things.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #667 on: February 26, 2022, 03:41:56 pm »

Vote: WCD

She left the Dylan wagon when it hit a peak of (5), while Math (the leading backup option) was sitting at (4), with a decent amount is suspicion still surrounding 2.718, who at the time had (2) - to weakly place her vote on Scola - someone it was easy for her to disagree with regarding style, instead of actually making a case for being scum.

She left the Dylan wagon with a statement regarding his (now) towniness, despite having been on him from post #265 to #438, doubling down at #370 with an assertion that an ISO on him reveals he’s done nothing townie.

To me, I get the sense that WCD had all her eggs in a row ready to let fall out of the nest, picked a person (Scola) with whom she would have no problem arguing style differences with - but didn’t actually have to justify as scummy - and sat back to let things play out.

Lastly, in #523, she went back to Dylan (which secured Dylan’s Exile) with a statement that her vote probably didn’t make a difference at this point - which if she hadn’t changed from Scola would be true - Dylan sat at (4) votes with the longest tenure. Except 2.718 ALSO sat at (4), and she could’ve placed her vote there.

Hmmm…. Dylan’s engagement today is decidely more towny. I agree that Swowl is not playing in quite his normal way. I get the sense that he and Galz are work-busy, but I’m still wary.

This is normally when I’d follow Mix, but he’s not cooperating with that plan at all.

Vote: Scola


Is the 9am deadline forum time? The “your time” is confusing for me.

Hmmm…. Dylan’s engagement today is decidely more towny.
Why do you think so?

Mostly the enumerated list of why he is towny, and especially the point that he has more tryhard as scum.

We are in a weird stasis. I’ll go back to

Vote: Dylan which I don’t think really changes anything but probably it’s not helpful to anyone for me to be hanging on to a solo vote

Interesting. Yes, that does kind of fit with what happened at the end of day.

I'm not surprised that she didn't go to the e wagon, from memory I think she'd been clear about not voting there earlier, so I read her "don't think really changes anything" as just "Dylan is getting exiled whether I add my vote there or not".

But apart from that, this case does kind of hang together. Didds left Dylan because she didn't mind if the exile fell to mathdude instead of Dylan. But then with e and Dylan tied on 4 each she doesn't want to take the chance that a 5th player will join the e wagon... Are we looking at Didds+e team then?
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #668 on: February 26, 2022, 03:48:23 pm »

e, why are you voting Didds?

Rudimentary gut reaction PoE really. With Dylan and faust flipping, I am basically thinking someone in those last 3 votes on Dylan is scum.

I just skimmed a bit of EoD1 and Didds seemed to make a point of being around at the end of the day, which I felt was a bit try-hard town, or, in other words, scummy.

So I voted Didds.

Didds making a point of being around ... er yes, and that final question to me about how strong my e feelings were. Soomehow I felt there was zero chance of her moving to e last minute so the question seemed rather odd. I'm going to go and reread some stuff. Once I've finished catching up. Someone remind me if I forget.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #669 on: February 26, 2022, 03:50:06 pm »

Oh, that last point was brought up by e himself. Forgot who I was replying to.

So I was thinking Didds+e, but e is contributing to the case on Didds. Hmm.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #670 on: February 26, 2022, 03:55:50 pm »

This is a solid case. I'm honestly loving the Didds cases, but I was nervous because of my scumread on e. But that was a day 1 case, so maybe it's time to let it go and go for something stronger.

Vote: WCD
joth joining now too? Gah, who do I suspect? joth going out of his way to explain why it's ok for him to switch, seems a bit scummy. What's the Didds wagon up to here, 3 I think. X-3.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #671 on: February 26, 2022, 04:02:34 pm »

I’m on my phone and it was too hard to snip Galz’s comment. I don’t need to respond to why I was voting Dylan early. That was lurking and I said so.

I moved to Scola because he’s scummy.

Galz says:
Lastly, in #523, she went back to Dylan (which secured Dylan’s Exile) with a statement that her vote probably didn’t make a difference at this point - which if she hadn’t changed from Scola would be true - Dylan sat at (4) votes with the longest tenure. Except 2.718 ALSO sat at (4), and she could’ve placed her vote there.

The reason I said it didn’t make a difference when I moved back to Dylan was because he was already going to be the exile. So, it didn’t make a difference. Obviously I could have voted for e and it would have made a difference, but I didn’t think he had done anything scummy, I don’t like his wagon, and I most trusted faust.

I said that I found Dylan’s most recent posts towny just before I moved off of him, and that was and is true. But I thought e was townier than Dylan was, so among those two, a better guess. I’m not surprised he’s town.

With the plurality exile, VCA isn’t as powerful. Scum wouldn’t even need to join one of the leading wagons unless it was to prevent one of their own. So, you think e is my partner? That was the only person I protected by voting how/when I did. And e running up a wagon on me now, right out of the gate, is smart partner play?

But it is certainly true when if I’m scum, faust is always at the top of my list. That is non-unique, though. Lots of people whack him.

PPE:2
Of course. Ok, yes, perfectly reasonable for Didds to go back for Dylan to prevent an e exile, just for thinking e is more towny than Dylan. I think that accounts for Galzria's case?
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #672 on: February 26, 2022, 04:06:50 pm »

I could see a Didds/MiX/X team

This is a good team call, since I feel like defending Didds now.

Does anyone think both e and Didds can be town?

I could definitely see them both being scum.

Cool, then vote for e.

So that when I flip town you can use that to call yourself town?

It is also interesting how fast MiX went to the absolute statement "can anyone see both Didds and e as town"
I don't think that's how the logic works with what Didds said.

Yeh, I don't think I get what's behind MiX's question. Maybe I'll look at it again later.
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infangthief

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #673 on: February 26, 2022, 04:12:42 pm »

As much as I like the metaphor of the nest, I am not at all fond of the idea that anyone could be pushed out of the nest to splat on the sidewalk!

I could see a Didds/MiX/X team

you doing the good drugs? that makes no sense to me at all.

The call makes sense to me.  I believe I mentioned yesterday that it seemed MiX and Didds were partners.

And the talk today still has me thinking it's Didds.  It's like she's dug a deeper hole rather than helping her case.

Vote: Didds
Ah, mathdude completes the set of suspicious folk piling on Didds. I've gone right off the Didds wagon.

"The talk today".
"It's like she's dug a deeper hole". Well, I think Didds' responses pulled her right out of the hole.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M137: Hatchling Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #674 on: February 26, 2022, 04:26:44 pm »

Fang with townie interactions to liven the game up some more.

I feel like things have stalled a bit for me, but that could just be me.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.
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