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Author Topic: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia -- GAME OVER, mafia wins flawlessly  (Read 41605 times)

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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #250 on: January 13, 2022, 05:06:24 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?
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MiX

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #251 on: January 13, 2022, 05:13:06 pm »

If people are seriously considering Galz I will just say I started by rereading him and I found him incredibly townie. I didn't post my reasons why because it's not very relevant (and then I fell asleep before rereading anyone else), but I can post it if people want.

And, uh, why is everyone dodging Swowl's question?
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mathdude

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #252 on: January 13, 2022, 09:22:09 pm »

Galz's case is no longer relevant. Swowl has done a lot more since then. How do you feel he has been scummy since Galz made his case?

I do agree Swowl has done a lot more since Galz' case on him.  How do I feel Swowl is scummy?  It has mostly been a D1 vote, even through our second D1 now.  I think he's one of the best results where we can truly learn more about other people after Swowl's flips because of the various opinions people have expressed on him throughout the game, and some opinions that have varied a little as time went on.  Does that mean I think he's scummy?  Not necessarily.  But I also don't see much from him that would indicate he's Town.

This one post did raise my attention though:
Well, there you go.

This would've been more helpful if one of us had flipped. Sorry about that.

I think something we can conclude from that EoD is that if Swowl's scum, Swowl's buddies were either voting on me or not around. There's just no way they would risk me showing up and hammering. I didn't reread though, and I'm still kinda busy until tomorrow, so that's all I really have for today.

Pretty much because of this logic (bold) and another thought, that MiX is solid town lock.
1. MiX as skum had the absolute perfect self D set up to hammer me with no shade to be cast on them.
2. MiX, or like anyone really, as skum... when they are the other wagon... is going to "forget about the game" at DL to the extent they don't even come in to vote.

As it happens, I am Town. so that makes me I guess suspicious of players that put themselves in a situation where they could not last minute switch to either MiX or myself without it being skummy. Will look into who that is...

In the quoted quote, I expect that sort of confidence from MiX (in fact, I'm actually somewhat surprised it's not more confidently stated as fact - he actually says "I think").

Swowl's initial conclusion ("proved" by 2 points) is much more bold than I'm used to seeing from him though.  Did we actually get viable wagons on D1 on 2 scum members - MiX and Swowl?  The probability is very heavily against that, but it's not impossible.  And statements like these from MiX and Swowl I could see as them trying to play off the wagons, and try and slowly work away from both of them as we went into today.
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Swowl

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #253 on: January 13, 2022, 09:57:57 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?

yes
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #254 on: January 13, 2022, 09:59:56 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?

yes

Not saying trying hard is bad... just specifically, he is trying too hard to accomplish something that is out of the ordinary for him.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #255 on: January 13, 2022, 10:54:41 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?
Kind of. I'm reacting mostly to the Swowl case. His towniness is NAI.
 
In other news, I don't think gkrieg has said what happened with him at EOD1.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #256 on: January 14, 2022, 12:59:31 am »

Everyone that is on me should, prior to hammer, have to publicly state why they are on me.

That doesn't sound like a good idea and fortunately I have the power to prevent it from taking place. Vote: Swowl

How is this not a good idea?
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #257 on: January 14, 2022, 01:03:03 am »

Everyone that is on me should, prior to hammer, have to publicly state why they are on me.

That doesn't sound like a good idea and fortunately I have the power to prevent it from taking place. Vote: Swowl

How is this not a good idea?

Gives scum info.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #258 on: January 14, 2022, 01:17:43 am »

Everyone that is on me should, prior to hammer, have to publicly state why they are on me.

That doesn't sound like a good idea and fortunately I have the power to prevent it from taking place. Vote: Swowl

How is this not a good idea?

Gives scum info.

But you think I am skum.
Either I flip town and the info of a town flip with that info is for sure better for town then skum.... or I am skum and it doesn't matter.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #259 on: January 14, 2022, 10:49:50 am »

Hhmmm…. EFHW, what’s the thought on Galz besides a silver tongue? Up until recently I had the two of you in my towncore
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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #260 on: January 14, 2022, 12:13:47 pm »

It's Friday - where's gkrieg?
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gkrieg13

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #261 on: January 14, 2022, 01:55:16 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?
Kind of. I'm reacting mostly to the Swowl case. His towniness is NAI.
 
In other news, I don't think gkrieg has said what happened with him at EOD1.

Saw that two people had plans to hammer Swowl, so I left the thread, assuming they would do it.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #262 on: January 14, 2022, 01:57:28 pm »

Cool.

People I won’t Exile today: Mix, Scola, Awaclus
People we should Exile today: Swowl
People I could consider, but don’t think are the best options: mathdude, Gkrieg
People that I would need to see a REALLY good case for: EFHW, WCD

That’s an interesting list of people you won’t exile. Why them?
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gkrieg13

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #263 on: January 14, 2022, 01:58:28 pm »

EFHW, MiX, Swowl & gkrieg - You were all voting by the end of day yesterday. You’re not voting now. What’s changed? Who do you think is scum?

I mean really nothing has changed, was just busy.

Vote: MiX
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gkrieg13

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #264 on: January 14, 2022, 01:59:26 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?
Kind of. I'm reacting mostly to the Swowl case. His towniness is NAI.
 
In other news, I don't think gkrieg has said what happened with him at EOD1.

Also why do you think the Swowl case from galz is scummy?
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gkrieg13

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #265 on: January 14, 2022, 02:01:23 pm »

Reads are:

MiX - definitely scummy. Reasons are above.
scola - I definitely get why people are saying they are scummy. I agree with them, just don’t think they are as strong as others suggest. Still wouldn’t mind this exile.
Swowl - I don’t completely agree with their defense of themselves, but didn’t feel as strong about the case either. Would also be fine with this exile.

Awaclus - don’t want to exile here
Galz - I don’t think he is as townie as other people think, but don’t want to exile D1.
EFHW - I don’t like that she is one of the people who is just talking about voting for scola but not actually doing it. If scola is scum, she is likely their partner.
WCD - she seems like she is trying to find her footing, but just seems townie in the way she is doing it. Don’t really want to exile.
Mathdude - this is the first game I’m in with them where they don’t scream scum to me. So don’t want to exile them.

Reposting my reads only because I don’t think people responded to them.
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EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #266 on: January 14, 2022, 02:07:10 pm »

vote: Galzria.  I'll have to blame his silver tongue for my being persuaded by his case on Swowl. Or I was being lazy.

Why Galz? Is he trying too hard?
Kind of. I'm reacting mostly to the Swowl case. His towniness is NAI.
 
In other news, I don't think gkrieg has said what happened with him at EOD1.

Also why do you think the Swowl case from galz is scummy?
Because it feels very compelling, as evidenced by my joining him. But on reread there's nothing there. That combination suggests scum!Galz.

I also think Swowl has done some towny stuff. But Galz isn't continuing to try to figure out if he is really scum, he just stays on the wagon.
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EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #267 on: January 14, 2022, 02:08:30 pm »

Everyone that is on me should, prior to hammer, have to publicly state why they are on me.

That doesn't sound like a good idea and fortunately I have the power to prevent it from taking place. Vote: Swowl

How is this not a good idea?

Gives scum info.

But you think I am skum.
Either I flip town and the info of a town flip with that info is for sure better for town then skum.... or I am skum and it doesn't matter.

This is an interesting point. How do you respond, Awaclus?
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EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #268 on: January 14, 2022, 02:11:10 pm »

If people are seriously considering Galz I will just say I started by rereading him and I found him incredibly townie. I didn't post my reasons why because it's not very relevant (and then I fell asleep before rereading anyone else), but I can post it if people want.

And, uh, why is everyone dodging Swowl's question?
I'd be interested to see your notes on Galzria.
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MiX

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #269 on: January 14, 2022, 03:14:43 pm »

Oh my god I forgot about this game.

Here's my Galzria post:

-----------------------------

Let's go player by player.

Galzria is town. Galzria is playing for the town condition. I'll grab a few posts that make me say this:

I was going to vote MiX here, but I’m going to leave my vote on Scola for right now. I would also consider Datswan or Gkrieg at this point in time.

Okay, this is null, throwing a bunch of names around is fine for either alignment.

I didn't call it random, just pointless. And yes, I get the point is to see how people react. But I'd argue, that's not actually effective. It would be interesting to see some analysis on how well anyone's D1 reads actually are...

A very 1-dimensional outlook. You're only considering "how people react" as a direct influence on reads. But there's a lot more to the purpose of voting than that. It creates connections. Is scum!MiX more likely, or less likely, to put a vote down on a partner in early RVS phases? What about Awaclus, or anybody else? An RVS vote may not have any weight or reason, and the "reaction" it generates may not be all that valuable (especially D1) - but every vote says something about the person making it - They choose who for reasons that are very rarely random (or pointless).

I do hear you on potential slips of knowledge and had not completely thought of that - but those slips some times come from scum, too, no?

Possibly, maybe. But town has much less use for such information than scum does, as scum is actively looking for information to inform a pretty major decision during the night - therefore pursuing discourse that may positively influence that decision for scum is fairly bad for town.

i.e I think the point of either is just to encourage more chatter - and this is true for both town and scum. town trying to weed out scum, scum trying to learn town's roles. I'm not sure why one is actually better than the other. I'm just not of fun of picking someone and voting for them without at least a piece of reasoning.

Not all chatter is equal. Chatter that potentially makes alignment connections is more valuable than chatter that potentially reveals information. You even acknowledge as much in the bolded above: One IS clearly better than the other - so why pursue a line of conversation that is beneficial to scum?

Also, vote: swowl.

As scum, this post serves to fill Galzria's ISO with words that make sense, to make him look townie. So what's the last thing scum's thinking when they're doing that? To setup a vote. This vote right here at the end of all that is townie, it shows that Galzria really wants the game to keep moving, and more importantly that he wants to push specific people.

Swowl case

This is a pretty significant chunk of effort that scum!Galzria doesn't need to do, doesn't need to feel like he needs to do it, and probably doesn't feel like he needs to do it. Now, I don't particularly agree with his case, I think saying he's not scumhunting as the primary reason to scumread is a bit off: yes, Swowl always scumhunts D1 and it feels like he's doing less of that here, but this game is not really like a normal one, especially with less players and thus less content. But the case itself comes from a townie perspective, and it's good enough to sheep.

Now, to D2: he's basically been hell-bent on exiling Swowl. Is this the position scum is taking? They might not even know if Swowl dies permanently, and if he does he would flip (right, joth? right? please?), so then Galz would get a bunch of heat on him, which happens regardless of how he pushes Swowl. I can see scum say "let's just setup this exile which by all rights should've happened yesterday", but not just do that.

For all of these reasons, and for not really seeing scummy posts, I would say Galz is always town here.

Now, Didds: the first thing I notice is this subtle buddying:

EFHW question seemed innocuous enough, but I don’t know how mix’s mind works. He’s really good at finding scum, at least when the sum is me, so there’s that.

The rest of the post doesn't matter, and maybe I'm being a bit self-centered, but that's a hidden buddying right there. Town!Didds is open about buddying, does this mean scum!Didds is more reserved about it? I don't remember checking for that in any previous scum!Didds games, but this is a point against Didds being town.

There's a few posts in between that aren't very alignment indicative. Then there's this:

I am more persuaded by Galz than the Scola folks, although he is my second choice.  The MiX reasons are... uh...hard to evaluate.  I'm not sure his lack of activity is any worse than gkriegs. I do not understand at all why gkrieg can just check out of D1 with no repercussions, though.

So, my scummy to not list is
Swowl
Scola
gkrieg
MiX
math
Awaclus
Galz
EFHW

Outside of Swowl, and maybe EFHW's a bit up, this was basically my readslist (yes, I remembered), roughly swapping me with Didds.

---------------------

Oh it has a bit of my Didds reread before I stopped being able to think about mafia.
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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #270 on: January 14, 2022, 03:19:30 pm »

Oh my god I forgot about this game.

This doesn't seem very credible from MiX, does it?
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #271 on: January 14, 2022, 03:23:03 pm »

Oh my god I forgot about this game.

This doesn't seem very credible from MiX, does it?

I don't care how credible it seems, I'm now finally not busy, which comes with having fun doing things other than mafia. I've been "busy" all day since I woke up having fun elsewhere that I didn't even think of this game until...well, now.

Maybe there's something about the low player count that makes me not want to wake up and read every post, because I know I can catch up eventually.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #272 on: January 14, 2022, 03:54:46 pm »

So deadline is in a little more than 22.5 hours.

And no one really seems to want to join me on mathdude. So let's:

Vote: MiX

D1 (the first) I did prefer swowl to MiX, but D1 (the second) I've changed my mind. I would switch though in order to get an exile today.



scolacounta:

mathdude (10): scolapasta
Swowl (4): Galzria, mathdude, WestCoastDidds, Awaclus
Galzria (12): Swowl, EFHW
Mix (2): gkrieg13, scolapasta

Not voting (31): EFHW, MiX, gkrieg13

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to exile.

Day 1 ends at 2:30 pm ET on January 15th.



Surprised to see MiX not voting here.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #273 on: January 14, 2022, 05:30:42 pm »

It isn't really all that surprising MiX is not voting given he just posted like their first real post which said they thought Galz was town and I was "not as skummy" as that reads list mentioned and those are the only two options.

I am kind of standing by my mentality that I would be dead right now already if MiX was skum, now that spans not just from Day 1 but to current... So if someone has a slot outside of Galz - speak on up.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #274 on: January 14, 2022, 10:44:35 pm »

It isn't really all that surprising MiX is not voting given he just posted like their first real post which said they thought Galz was town and I was "not as skummy" as that reads list mentioned and those are the only two options.

I am kind of standing by my mentality that I would be dead right now already if MiX was skum, now that spans not just from Day 1 but to current... So if someone has a slot outside of Galz - speak on up.

Is your statement about MiX not hammering specific to MiX? Or is it related to general strategy? Because if it's a general statement, that's no reason to give MiX town-cred. We're nearing end of D2, and had no exile D1. I think most Town should be interested in getting an exile at this point. If anything, I would expect Scum to hold off and not hammer... I'd say Town will likely hammer.

However, if you're just saying MiX doesn't hammer D1 when he's Town. He only does it when he's Scum... then ignore this post entirely.

Let's not wait until the final 30 minutes this new D1, and miss again. Is someone hammering Swowl? Or should I jump back to MiX to make his wagon more viable?
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